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91L no concern; more postcards from the AMS hurricane conference

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:12 PM GMT on April 18, 2012

I'm in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida this week, where the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. Most of the Hurricane Specialists from the National Hurricane Center are here, and they are keeping an eye on the waters a few hundred miles east of Bermuda, where an extratropical storm has cut off from the jet stream and is slowly acquiring tropical characteristics. This system was designated Invest 91L last night by NHC. Ocean temperatures are around 20°C (68°F) in the region, which is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots. Nevertheless, 91L has managed to develop a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and may continue to show more organization as it moves slowly southeastward over the next day or two. I give 91L a close to 0% chance of becoming a named storm in the next two days, and NHC seems to have stopped issuing new products for the system. By the end of the week, 91L should get picked up by a trough of low pressure and move off to the northeast. The storm is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L. The island of Bermuda is seen at the left side of the image.

Global tropical cyclones and climate: current signal
Now, I'll summarize a few of the excellent talks given at this week's AMS hurricane conference. Dr. Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research talked about the impact of global warming on hurricane intensities. Using data beginning in 1975, the beginning of the satellite era, he showed that while the total number of hurricanes globally has decreased in recent years, the proportion of hurricanes that are of Category 4 - 5 intensity has increased by 40%. He showed that this change could be related to a 0.8°C increase in global temperature during the period. He concluded that when hurricanes form, they are finding that it is easier for them to reach higher intensities.

Sensitivity of the strongest hurricanes to ocean surface warmth
Dr. Jim Elsner of Florida State University showed that observations indicate a sensitivity of hurricane winds of 8.2 m/s +/- 1.19 per degree Centigrade of ocean warmth, using data in the Atlantic from 1981 - 2010 (for oceans areas warmer than 25°C.) Using a high resolution model (HiRAM) with 50 km resolution, a sensitivity of only 1.5 +/- .6 m/s was found, calling into question the usefulness of current models for assessing future hurricane activity.

How will climate change affect hurricane tracks?
Angela Colbert of the University of Miami used 17 global climate models, the BAM hurricane tracking model, and the Atlantic historical HURDAT data base to see how hurricane tracks might change in the future. She classified storms as either straight moving (which tend to hit the Caribbean or U.S. Gulf Coast), recurving landfalling (U.S. East Coast impacts), or recurving ocean storms that miss landfall. She projected a 6% increase in recurving ocean storms and an 8% decrease in straight-moving storms by the end of the century, due to climate change. A decrease of 1- 2 storms per decade is predicted for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and an increase of 1 - 2 storms per decade in the waters of the mid-Atlantic, and along the East Coast of Florida. This occurs primarily because of an increase in westerly winds over the Central Atlantic, and to a lesser degree, an eastward change in genesis location closer to the coast of Africa. Both of these factors would tend to increase the number of recurving storms.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting WxGeekVA:


I sea what you did there...

I'm glad that someone is paying attention....
Quoting Grothar:
Hello boys and girls.

whats up Grothar?
Quoting pottery:
Have you guys checked out whats going on over Northern South America?
Feeding in to 91L and all.
Street flooding in the city here this afternoon, with thunder and stuff.

Weird Weather this, for a dry season....


I posted this before and it got no response.

Groth,thats interesting. Did the Florida Rainy season start early in 1912?

What?
I am obsessed!
Quoting aspectre:
487 TropicalAnalystwx13 Hot Dogs and Chocolate Syrup?

Ya know, I tried to Plus that... but just couldn't stomach it.

Actually, I thought that "chocolate syrup" used as the Feminine part of the thing is most intriguing. Tasty too.
Quoting nigel20:

whats up Grothar?


Nothing!
Quoting Grothar:


I posted this before and it got no response.


Sorry, I only just came in so I didn't see it.
But how strange is that????
It has really not stopped raining this year as yet.
Quoting Grothar:


Nothing!

That's really sad
Quoting StormTracker2K:


GFS is diggin a lot lower with the low compared to last night.
Quoting reedzone:


That's what I've been saying and the only reason I say potentially deadly is because of the timing of that storm, people will be in bed. Damaging winds can be deadly if people don't get the warning. I think a Moderate Risk for Central/North Florida seems likely Saturday.


That is true but if things pan out as the models now are suggesting they will, there WILL also be a significant risk for tornadoes across Florida in the period from roughly late evening Saturday to mid-morning Sunday, depending upon one's location.

One interesting thing to note is that some of the model forecasts are predicting a strong trough with the jet stream actually dipping as far south as the Florida peninsula. That is quite unusual, especially this late in the season. There is also predicted to be a large pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere directly over the Florida peninsula at this time, which is also an unusual setup for this geographical location.

And finally, some people do tend to forget that these systems can behave a bit differently over Florida than over the Great Plains, for instance. Here there is not usually the dry line, a frequent component of severe weather outbreaks much further to the north and west. But we can have a deepening low pressure system in the mid levels out over the Gulf of Mexico, where surface winds are unfettered by landforms, as would be the case over the CONUS. Finally, sea breeze fronts at the surface and elevated humidity levels can add still more instability.

So dismissing the possible severe weather outbreak for this upcoming weekend in Florida as one without tornado risk is not wise. It may turn out well with only straight line winds, heavy rains, lightning and hail. Then again, it may develop further and feature other things, such as significant tornado activity.
Quoting spathy:


I think it has something to do with the active ring of fire # 2.
The one around S America.
But I will refer to George Nory!


That calls for a song, sorry spathy!! pott love this

img src="">
Quoting pottery:

Sorry, I only just came in so I didn't see it.
But how strange is that????
It has really not stopped raining this year as yet.


Is the ITCZ stuck in limbo?
Or is it starting to march North now?
Quoting spathy:
Groth,thats interesting. Did the Florida Rainy season start early in 1912?

What?
I am obsessed!


Are you as dry there as we are here? We really have not had much of a rainy season the past few years. June is always the rainiest month and last year I think the coast only got about 2 or 3 inches.
Quoting pottery:

I'm glad that someone is paying attention....

hey pottery.....the cricket was washed out for most of today...maybe that saved the west indies from going down 2-0
Quoting Grothar:


That calls for a song, sorry spathy!! pott love this

img src="">


Thats perfect Groth.
Thats my ringtone for MOM. Our last name is Burns.
Quoting Grothar:


That calls for a song, sorry spathy!! pott love this

img src="">

Is that George Noory on Bass?
Great tune, by the way.
Quoting Grothar:


Are you as dry there as we are here? We really have not had much of a rainy season the past few years. June is always the rainiest month and last year I think the coast only got about 2 or 3 inches.


Yes we are very dry,Moist fall, very dry Spring, and 90 + degrees for the past month.
Quoting nigel20:

hey pottery.....the cricket was washed out for most of today...maybe that saved the west indies from going down 2-0

I was there for the Sunday.
Good cricket, but slow.
Looks to be Dominica for our chance to level.
May be rained out tomorrow again. Lots of wet stuff coming.
503 Grothar: I posted this before and it got no response.

That is feeding 91L? Is there a larger scale map showing both?
Quoting spathy:


Thats perfect Groth.
Thats my ringtone for MOM. Our last name is Burns.


How appropriate.
Ok night folks. Its getting very late for me.
The Endless Bummer
Mar 09, 2012
Fukushima fallout threatens Southland after a year of Japanese meltdowns


By Michael Collins

Millions of Southern Californians and tourists seek the region’s famous beaches to cool off in the sea breeze and frolic in the surf. Those iconic breezes, however, may be delivering something hotter than the white sands along the Pacific – buckyballs.

According to a new U.C. Davis study, uranium-filled nanospheres are created from the millions of tons of fresh and saltwater used to try to cool down the three molten cores of the stricken reactors. The tiny and tough buckeyballs are shaped like British Association Football soccer balls.

Water hitting the incredibly hot and radioactive primarily uranium-oxide fuel turns it into peroxide. In this goo buckeyballs are formed, loaded with uranium and able to move quickly through water without disintegrating.

High radiation readings in Santa Monica and Los Angeles during a recent 42-day period from late December and to late January strongly suggest that radiation is increasing in the region.

The radiation, detected by this reporter and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency separate from each other using difference procedures, does not appear to be natural in origin. The EPA’s radiation station is high atop an undisclosed building in Los Angeles while this reporter’s detection location is near the West LA border.

Both stations registered over 5.3 times normal though the methods of sampling and detection differed. The videotaped Santa Monica sampling and testing allowed for the detection of alpha and beta radiation while the sensitive EPA instrument detected beta only according the government website.

Scientific studies from the United Kingdom and Europe show that sea water infused with radiation of the sort spewing out of Fukushima can travel inland from the coast up to 300 kilometers. These mobile poisons include cesium-137 and plutonium-239 with a half-life of 24,400 years.

Even with government, University of California and this reporter’s tests showing high radiation in the air, water, food and dairy products in this state, the state and federal government cut off special testing for Fukushima radionuclides over half a year ago.

Southern California is still getting hit by Fukushima radiation at alarmingly high levels that will inevitably increase as the main bulk of polluted Pacific Ocean water reaches North America over the next two years.

Luckily, the area is south of where the jet stream has brought hot rains from across the Pacific and Fukushima over 5,000 miles away, upwind and up-current of the West Coast. Those rains have brought extraordinary amounts of radiation to places like St. Louis with multiple rain events detected and filmed showing incredibly hot rains.

Unluckily, North America is directly downwind of Japan where the government is having 560,000 tons of irradiated rubble incinerated with the ash dumped in Tokyo Bay. The ash that could escape would ALSO be radioactive adding to the witch’s brew of airborne toxins emanating from Japan which has suffered terribly from the meltdowns.

The burning began last October and continues through March 2014. Activists contend that people are getting an unwitting double dose with those along the coast looking at the prospect of a Pacific poisoned with highly mobile and extremely dangerous buckeyballs in the sea mist and breeze.

FOR THOSE LIVING IN WEST CONUS AND ARE INTERESTED IN THIS SUBJECT

CHECK http://www.enviroreporter.com

Radiation tests being performed on food, rain and environment....



Quoting pottery:

I was there for the Sunday.
Good cricket, but slow.
Looks to be Dominica for our chance to level.
May be rained out tomorrow again. Lots of wet stuff coming.

Yeah, I doubt there will be much play tomorrow....i hope the west indies square the series in Dominica. I see your home grown boy Sunil Narine is doing very well in the IPL
Quoting aspectre:
503. Grothar: I posted this before and it got no response.

That is feeding 91L? Is there a larger scale map showing both?


Closest one I could find. See, pott isn't so far off.

Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, I doubt there will be much play tomorrow....i hope the west indies square the series in Dominica. I see your home grown boy Sunil Narine is doing very well in the IPL

Yeah. It would have been nice to have him bowl in this series.
But the $$$$ is big in IPL.
Link

Salt threatens Mekong rice
.
.
.
Salt water from the South China Sea now spreads 40 kilometers into the delta, unlike the 10 kilometer inland reach of the sea 30 years ago.
.
.
.
.Nguyen Van Bo, president of the Vietnam Academy of Agricultural Science, a government-backed entity in Hanoi. "Seven percent of the paddy fields in the delta are affected by rising sea levels."
.
.
.
"Climate change is impacting farming systems and it is endangering crops," Campbell told IPS. "Agriculture systems have to be transformed to make agriculture climate resilient."
Quoting 1911maker:
Link

Salt threatens Mekong rice
.
.
.
Salt water from the South China Sea now spreads 40 kilometers into the delta, unlike the 10 kilometer inland reach of the sea 30 years ago.
.
.
.
.Nguyen Van Bo, president of the Vietnam Academy of Agricultural Science, a government-backed entity in Hanoi. "Seven percent of the paddy fields in the delta are affected by rising sea levels."
.
.
.
"Climate change is impacting farming systems and it is endangering crops," Campbell told IPS. "Agriculture systems have to be transformed to make agriculture climate resilient."

That's bad news....
Quoting Grothar:


Closest one I could find. See, pott isn't so far off.


See post 525
Quoting 1911maker:
Link

Salt threatens Mekong rice
.
.
.
Salt water from the South China Sea now spreads 40 kilometers into the delta, unlike the 10 kilometer inland reach of the sea 30 years ago.
.
.
.
.Nguyen Van Bo, president of the Vietnam Academy of Agricultural Science, a government-backed entity in Hanoi. "Seven percent of the paddy fields in the delta are affected by rising sea levels."
.
.
.
"Climate change is impacting farming systems and it is endangering crops," Campbell told IPS. "Agriculture systems have to be transformed to make agriculture climate resilient."


Before you leap to climate change please look into how much fresh water has been removed via well drilling/thus allowing salt intrusion.
Quoting wxmod:


But that wouldn't help solve the world water crisis, would it?


Solar desalination plants and water pipelines costs less than weather modification experiments.

You can also re-use the salt for de-icing roads and bridges.
Quoting pottery:

Yeah. It would have been nice to have him bowl in this series.
But the $$$$ is big in IPL.

Yeah, 700000 US
Quoting spathy:


Before you leap to climate change please look into how much fresh water has been removed via well drilling/thus allowing salt intrusion.

Removing undergroundground water does NOT result in SEAWATER intrusion at ground level.
Quoting pottery:

Removing ground water does NOT result in SEAWATER intrusion at ground level.


It does taint well water used for crops way before a 1 meter rise in sealevels.

If you read back the fear is a rise in sealevel of a meter or more. If you read between the lines they are having salt problems now.
Saltwater ingress is not sea rise is it?
Quoting spathy:
Saltwater ingress is not sea rise is it?

I would have thought so.
But I will need to read the article again....
I thought you were saying that they were drilling for irrigation water, and that was causing the seawater to encroach into the paddies.
Quoting presslord:
This should clear it all up for you:


Hmmm. Strange. ..... Where is the thermal oscillation line?
Welcome to a early start in rain season.
Quoting pottery:

I would have thought so.
But I will need to read the article again....
I thought you were saying that they were drilling for irrigation water, and that was causing the seawater to encroach into the paddies.


No not at all. They are removing fresh groundwater that allows salt water to creep deeper inland into wells. Sea-rise would further an existing problem.
Quoting spathy:
Saltwater ingress is not sea rise is it?

It seems that the immediate problem is the dams built in China, reducing the river flows into the delta.
This has allowed the seawater to encroach.
So yeah, its not caused by sea-level rise.
Quoting spathy:


No not at all. They are removing fresh groundwater that allows salt water to creep deeper inland into wells. Sea-rise would further an existing problem.

I did not see anything about wells though.
We are talking Rice cultivation. Rice grows in water. The area is a vast delta. The problem is that the river that is feeding the delta has been restricted by dams. THAT problem is not going to go away either, incidentally.
Quoting spathy:
Saltwater ingress is not sea rise is it?


As sea level rises, the gravitational potential of the river water is decreased, because it has less distance to "fall" to reach sea level. This allows salt water to work it's way farther and farther upstream during high tides, where it poisons fresh water plants, destroying the root systems, etc, which leads to erosion and further intrusion of the salt water.

It's a viscous cycle that Louisiana is all too familiar with, because of all the canals cut by the oil and logging industries several decades ago, which made the situation twice as bad as it would have been.

Edit:

And I hadn't even considered a dam, which is obviously disastrous and probably much worse than any immediate effects of sea level rise, at least in the short to medium term.
Thanks Pot for taking the time to understand my post.
There are things we are doing to damage our environment NOW that have nothing to do with future Warming scenarios.
These things are being relatively ignored and or denied funding amongst all the monies being spent on co2 for relatively little results in the distant future.
Quoting RTSplayer:


As sea level rises, the gravitational potential of the river water is decreased, because it has less distance to "fall" to reach sea level. This allows salt water to work it's way farther and farther upstream during high tides, where it poisons fresh water plants, destroying the root systems, etc, which leads to erosion and further intrusion of the salt water.

It's a viscous cycle that Louisiana is all too familiar with, because of all the canals cut by the oil and logging industries several decades ago, which made the situation twice as bad as it would have been.
Absolutely.
Quoting pottery:

I did not see anything about wells though.
We are talking Rice cultivation. Rice grows in water. The area is a vast delta. The problem is that the river that is feeding the delta has been restricted by dams. THAT problem is not going to go away either, incidentally.


Ok the removal of fresh water is causing salt intrusion.
I mentioned wells because of something I read a while back about the increase in well drilling in that area(expanding growing area) is causing salt intrusion of the wells.

Refer to #544
Quoting belizeit:
Welcome to a early start in rain season.

Whats up belizeit...it seem as if most of the Caribbean is having an early start of the rainy season
Quoting RTSplayer:


As sea level rises, the gravitational potential of the river water is decreased, because it has less distance to "fall" to reach sea level. This allows salt water to work it's way farther and farther upstream during high tides, where it poisons fresh water plants, destroying the root systems, etc, which leads to erosion and further intrusion of the salt water.

It's a viscous cycle that Louisiana is all too familiar with, because of all the canals cut by the oil and logging industries several decades ago, which made the situation twice as bad as it would have been.

Edit:
br>And I hadn't even considered a dam, which is obviously disastrous and probably much worse than any immediate effects of sea level rise, at least in the short to medium term.

4 dams on the Mekong river.....
Stopped the annual deposits of nutrient etc etc etc....
I've issued another tropical update on the Atlantic tropics due to Invest 91-L. At the request of some bloggers earlier today...I have added 91-L into its own special features section. I've received positive feedback so far on these detailed discussions and plan to do them daily during hurricane season. If there are any other remarks on how to make it better...etc...you can post on the blog comments.

My latest analysis has forced me to tone down the "hot talk" on 91-L in my update tonight...its running out of time to develop. Sadly, this maybe my last blog update until June 1, 2012...oh well...
Quoting RTSplayer:


As sea level rises, the gravitational potential of the river water is decreased, because it has less distance to "fall" to reach sea level. This allows salt water to work it's way farther and farther upstream during high tides, where it poisons fresh water plants, destroying the root systems, etc, which leads to erosion and further intrusion of the salt water.

It's a viscous cycle that Louisiana is all too familiar with, because of all the canals cut by the oil and logging industries several decades ago, which made the situation twice as bad as it would have been.

Edit:

And I hadn't even considered a dam, which is obviously disastrous and probably much worse than any immediate effects of sea level rise, at least in the short to medium term.


Thats an obvious physics lesson.
But the fractional rise in sea levels so far have little to do with salt intrusion as of NOW!
WE have a lot of native plant species and even some animal and insect species that will probably go extinct over the next several decades, except possibly a few stray transplanted specimens or those on display in some sort of zoo or aquarium.

By mid century, when sea level starts rising in inches or half-inches per year, instead of millimeters per year, it's going to get really bad for what's left of marshlands and the life in them.
Quoting spathy:


Ok the removal of fresh water is causing salt intrusion.
I mentioned wells because of something I read a while back about the increase in well drilling in that area(expanding growing area) is causing salt intrusion of the wells.

Refer to #544

Hey, Maybe we should just Desal all the oceans and done.....
LOL, that would solve all our problems for irrigation and so on..

I'm joking, of course.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I've issued another tropical update on the Atlantic tropics due to Invest 91-L. At the request of some bloggers earlier today...I have added 91-L into its own special features section. I've received positive feedback so far on these detailed discussions and plan to do them daily during hurricane season. If there are any other remarks on how to make it better...etc...you can post on the blog comments.

My latest analysis has forced me to tone down the "hot talk" on 91-L in my update tonight...its running out of time to develop. Sadly, this maybe my last blog update until June 1, 2012...oh well...


Dont give up on an early development before June 1rst. In fact,long range GFS has been showing plenty of moisture in the Caribbean,but we know the drill about long range scenarios.
Quoting pottery:

Hey, Maybe we should just Desal all the oceans and done.....
LOL, that would solve all our problems for irrigation and so on..

I'm joking, of course.


LOL :O)
Quoting RTSplayer:
WE have a lot of native plant species and even some animal and insect species that will probably go extinct over the next several decades, except possibly a few stray transplanted specimens or those on display in some sort of zoo or aquarium.

By mid century, when sea level starts rising in inches or half-inches per year, instead of millimeters per year, it's going to get really bad for what's left of marshlands and the life in them.

True enough.
And rice is a crop that will be one of the first to suffer.
Rice is a staple food for billions.........
Good Night All. Thanks for the article on all the radiation being distributed all over the West Coast. That made me all warm inside.
Quoting Grothar:


I posted this before and it got no response.



This convection is caused by surface trough east of 91-L (was formerly a cold front attached to 91-L). The surface convergence from that trough is aided by upper divergence ahead of 91-L's parent upper low and west of an E Atlantic upper ridge axis. Westerly vertical shear is really high between the parent upper low and E Atlantic upper ridge axis for any tropical development...but I know what you mean about how weird it is for this time of year in terms of heavy rain and all....
Quoting nigel20:

Whats up belizeit...it seem as if most of the Caribbean is having an early start toof the rainy season
Yes we have bearly seen a dry season this year in march we recorded the wettest march since record keeping started and it looks like april will set records to . I thought we would have it dryer due to La Ninja fading but the carribbean is just to hot so lots of moister gets lifted.
522 sunlinepr [quoting Michael Collins]: Millions of Southern Californians and tourists seek the region's famous beaches to cool off in the sea breeze and frolic in the surf. Those iconic breezes, however, may be delivering something hotter than the white sands along the Pacific: buckyballs.
According to a new U.C. Davis study, uranium-filled nanospheres are created from the millions of tons of fresh and saltwater used to try to cool down the three molten cores of the stricken reactors.


Probably the seawater. As I said when the black smoke arose from the reactor buildings, water pumped up from the ocean would have pulled then pushed LOTS and LOTS of organic(carbon-containing)debris -- including viruses, bacteria, plankton, free-floating fish/etc eggs, hatchlings, jellyfish, and small fish/etc ground by the pumping action -- through the filters.
Spray that heavily organic seawater onto a hot pile, the water evaporates, and the organic compounds deteriorate from the heat to react with each other and the superheated steam.

Leaving carbon and carbonaceous goo -- which acts as a moderator (slows neutrons down) that increases the neutrons' cross-section of interaction with the fissionable and fertile nuclei -- building up on&within the nuclear pile.
Ever more neutron-nucleus interactions heats up the nuclear pile -- while the ever-thickening insulating layer of goo and carbon prevents sufficiently effective cooling that should have come with the addition of more water -- and voila black smoke as the carbonaceous goo is converted to carbon (and hydrogen/etc) by extreme heat (and some normal burning).

The carbon is then heat-sputtered off of the pile into the surrounding atmosphere. Some of that carbon in turn could have become buckyballs, fullerenes, rolled-up graphene sheets, etc (which is also a significant portion of normal soot) as it cooled , enveloping uranium atoms sputtered off the nuclear pile during the buckeyball/etc formation process.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Dont give uo on an early development before June 1rst. In fact,long range GFS has been showing plenty of moisture in the Caribbean,but we know the drill about long range scenarios.


Well...if any scenarios start solidfying before June 1...I'll be doing updates again ;)....

The long-range models runs did a really good job in foreseeing 91-L...and I keep hunting the NHC webpage and the discussion on this blog for any clues of anything before June 1. We shall see...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


This convection is caused by surface trough east of 91-L (was formerly a cold front attached to 91-L). The surface convergence from that trough is aided by upper divergence ahead of 91-L's parent upper low and west of an E Atlantic upper ridge axis. Westerly vertical shear is really high between the parent upper low and E Atlantic upper ridge axis for any tropical development...but I know what you mean about how weird it is for this time of year in terms of heavy rain and all....

Thanks for that.
Quoting belizeit:
Yes we have bearly seen a dry season this year in march we recorded the wettest march since record keeping started and it looks like april will set records to . I thought we would have it dryer due to La Ninja fading but the carribbean is just to hot so lots of moister gets lifted.

I knew it was something strange going on.....
Quoting belizeit:
Yes we have bearly seen a dry season this year in march we recorded the wettest year since record keeping started and it looks like april will set records to . I thought we would have it dryer due to La Ninja fading but the carribbean is just to hot so lots of moister gets lifted.

I'm not far away from you...i'm in Jamaica and this would have been the dry season, but it's not dry
Quoting nigel20:

I'm not far away from you...i'm in Jamaica and this would have been the dry season, but it's not dry

Trinidad has been very wet as well.
Quoting pottery:

Trinidad has been very wet as well.
Makes one wonder what cane season will bring . As doc quoated saying that major hurricanes had seen a increase of 40%.
Like in Chernobyl, red forest appeared in in Fukushima.

Red forest..

The Red Forest (Ukrainian: Рудий ліс, Russian: Рыжий лес), formerly the Worm Wood Forest, refers to the trees in the 10 km² surrounding the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The name ‘Red Forest’ comes from the ginger-brown colour of the pine trees after they died following the absorption of high levels of radiation from the Chernobyl accident on April 26, 1986.[1] In the post-disaster cleanup operations, the Red Forest was bulldozed and buried in ‘waste graveyards’.[2] The site of the Red Forest remains one of the most contaminated areas in the world today.[3] [Link]
Quoting pottery:

Trinidad has been very wet as well.

So too Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
568. DDR
Hello pottery
plenty wet stuff indeed,exactly 3 inches here today,incredible.
Quoting DDR:
Hello pottery
plenty wet stuff indeed,exactly 3 inches here today,incredible.


And look at what TAFB added at 00z Surface Analysis.,a surface trough just east of Lesser Antilles. And that will come to PR by the weekend bringing more rain to add to the above normal rainfall totals so far on 2012 in San Juan.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And look at what TAFB added at 00z Surface Analysis.,a surface trough just east of Lesser Antilles. And that will come to PR by the weekend bringing more rain to add to the above normal rainfall totals so far on 2012 in San Juan.



Mmmm...interesting....and its formation is caused by the same upper divergence mentioned in comment 557. However...vertical shear is high for tropical developmment (not that you were suggesting that or anything)...but yes this definetely will be bringing rain if it makes it to your area.
572. DDR
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And look at what TAFB added at 00z Surface Analysis.,a surface trough just east of Lesser Antilles. And that will come to PR by the weekend bringing more rain to add to the above normal rainfall totals so far in San Juan.


Neat map,lets hope rainfall remains minimal for everyone's sake,my work requires me outdoors.
Thanks! for the large-scale animations in 525, sunlinepr
575. wxmod
Quoting weatherh98:


Why build in a desert? It won't rain! There would be no shortage if we lived where it's naturally meant to be... Well at least untill we can pump massive amounts of salt water to desalinate it. Idk that's my opinion on water shortage im not sure what y'all were even talking about anyway:) night blogger buds!


You are correct. Believe me. I'm not advocating weather modification.
571 Skyepony: Odd earthquake swarm in Canada.

I'm wondering whether the recent mini-earthquake booms heard in Wisconsin and in Canada could be related to deep-underground permafrost melting such as those which opened cavernous tunnels that caused the overnight disappearance of a Russian lake and quite possibly a similar overnight disappearance of a lake in Chile as well as elsewhere.
(The existence of the formerly ice-plugged cave beneath that former Russia lake is confirmed.)
ie Like on the Matterhorn, once enough permafrost melts, a major rock fall occurs.
Good night fellow bloggers...i'm off to bed
578. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:


Solar desalination plants and water pipelines costs less than weather modification experiments.

You can also re-use the salt for de-icing roads and bridges.


I don't know if that's true, but changing weather patterns has risks that certainly puts it in a different category.


New GFS is coming in a lot weaker and further south with the low this weekend. Kind of odd, but could be a trend that the major models (GFS and Euro) start following the weaker models such as the NAM, CMC, DGEX, etc. Those models were showing all day what the GFS is now showing on the 00z run.
Quoting Skyepony:
Like in Chernobyl, red forest appeared in in Fukushima.

Red forest..

The Red Forest (Ukrainian: Рудий ліс, Russian: Рыжий лес), formerly the Worm Wood Forest, refers to the trees in the 10 km² surrounding the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The name ‘Red Forest’ comes from the ginger-brown colour of the pine trees after they died following the absorption of high levels of radiation from the Chernobyl accident on April 26, 1986.[1] In the post-disaster cleanup operations, the Red Forest was bulldozed and buried in ‘waste graveyards’.[2] The site of the Red Forest remains one of the most contaminated areas in the world today.[3] [Link]


From the article: It was the first time in my life to see growing Korean houttuynia totally died.

This is really bad. Korean houttuynia is a major weed that is almost impossible to kill. How sad.
581. mati
Quoting aspectre:
522 sunlinepr [quoting Michael Collins]: Millions of Southern Californians and tourists seek the region's famous beaches to cool off in the sea breeze and frolic in the surf. Those iconic breezes, however, may be delivering something hotter than the white sands along the Pacific: buckyballs.
According to a new U.C. Davis study, uranium-filled nanospheres are created from the millions of tons of fresh and saltwater used to try to cool down the three molten cores of the stricken reactors.


Probably the seawater. As I said when the black smoke arose from the reactor buildings, water pumped up from the ocean would have pulled then pushed LOTS and LOTS of organic(carbon-containing)debris -- including viruses, bacteria, plankton, free-floating fish/etc eggs, hatchlings, jellyfish, and small fish/etc ground by the pumping action -- through the filters.
Spray that heavily organic seawater onto a hot pile, the water evaporates, and the organic compounds deteriorate from the heat to react with each other and superheated steam.

Leaving carbon and carbonaceous goo -- which acts as a moderator (slows neutrons down) that increases the neutrons' cross-section of interaction with the fissionable and fertile nuclei -- building up on&within the nuclear pile.
Ever more neutron-nucleus interactions heats up the nuclear pile, then voila black smoke as the carbonaceous goo is converted to carbon (and hydrogen/etc) by extreme heat.

Then the carbon is heat-sputtered off of the pile into the surrounding atmosphere. Some of that carbon in turn could have become buckyballs, fullerenes, rolled-up graphene sheets, etc as it cooled (which is also a significant portion of normal soot), enveloping uranium atoms sputtered off the nuclear pile during the buckeyball/etc formation process.


Dudes, what are you smoking?
582. mati
Quoting Skyepony:
Like in Chernobyl, red forest appeared in in Fukushima.

Red forest..

The Red Forest (Ukrainian: Рудий ліс, Russian: Рыжий лес), formerly the Worm Wood Forest, refers to the trees in the 10 km² surrounding the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The name ‘Red Forest’ comes from the ginger-brown colour of the pine trees after they died following the absorption of high levels of radiation from the Chernobyl accident on April 26, 1986.[1] In the post-disaster cleanup operations, the Red Forest was bulldozed and buried in ‘waste graveyards’.[2] The site of the Red Forest remains one of the most contaminated areas in the world today.[3] [Link]


LOL, I'll take your word for it, since you can only reference Cherynobl
What a difference a year makes! I wish I could share it with my fellow Texans farther west. Oh and BTW I want a Bugatti too. :D



Rainfall up 345%
Posted: Apr 18, 2012 8:19 PM CDT Updated: Apr 18, 2012 8:19 PM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn


Rainfall this year is up 345% over last year.

From January 1st, 2011 until April 17th, the area picked up 5.52" which was 8.52" below normal. This year from January 1st through April 17th, we've received 24.58" which is 10.54" above normal.

Now that La Nina has significantly weakened and above normal North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures have returned to normal, the rains have returned.

With the next storm system slated to arrive late Friday/Saturday, the numbers will continue to increase.
Quoting Grothar:


I posted this before and it got no response.



I asked before why we don't get hurricanes off the coast of South America and found out that there are rare instances of them. This is a really cool shot of some heavy weather feeding 91L. I wish it wouldn't - I think we're sailing through it in a couple of days.
Quoting aspectre:
522 sunlinepr [quoting Michael Collins]: Millions of Southern Californians and tourists seek the region's famous beaches to cool off in the sea breeze and frolic in the surf. Those iconic breezes, however, may be delivering something hotter than the white sands along the Pacific: buckyballs.
According to a new U.C. Davis study, uranium-filled nanospheres are created from the millions of tons of fresh and saltwater used to try to cool down the three molten cores of the stricken reactors.


Probably the seawater. As I said when the black smoke arose from the reactor buildings, water pumped up from the ocean would have pulled then pushed LOTS and LOTS of organic(carbon-containing)debris -- including viruses, bacteria, plankton, free-floating fish/etc eggs, hatchlings, jellyfish, and small fish/etc ground by the pumping action -- through the filters.
Spray that heavily organic seawater onto a hot pile, the water evaporates, and the organic compounds deteriorate from the heat to react with each other and superheated steam.

Leaving carbon and carbonaceous goo -- which acts as a moderator (slows neutrons down) that increases the neutrons' cross-section of interaction with the fissionable and fertile nuclei -- building up on&within the nuclear pile.
Ever more neutron-nucleus interactions heats up the nuclear pile -- while the ever-thickening insulating layer of goo and carbon prevents sufficiently effective cooling of that nuclear pile by the addition of more water -- and voila black smoke as the carbonaceous goo is converted to carbon (and hydrogen/etc) by extreme heat (and some normal burning).

The carbon is then heat-sputtered off of the pile into the surrounding atmosphere. Some of that carbon in turn could have become buckyballs, fullerenes, rolled-up graphene sheets, etc (which is also a significant portion of normal soot) as it cooled , enveloping uranium atoms sputtered off the nuclear pile during the buckeyball/etc formation process.


Worked at a nuclear plant for some years. Don't see how uranium could possibly be mixed with cooling seawater. The two systems never mix (the coolant is in pipes separate from the pipes with radioactivity. ) The nuclear pile could never "sputter off" into the cooling water.
.
581 mati: Dudes, what are you smoking?

Getting smoked is for lightweights. Physics is: Sure your idea is crazy, but is it crazy enough to be true?

585 TropicTraveler: Worked at a nuclear plant for some years. Don't see how uranium could possibly be mixed with cooling seawater. The two systems never mix (the coolant is in pipes separate from the pipes with radioactivity.) The nuclear pile could never "sputter off" into the cooling water.

We're talking about broken reactor vessels and cracked coolant lines at FukushimaDaiichi.
Emergency crews were using firehoses mounted on crane booms to spray seawater onto the reactor vessels so that the seawater could provide external cooling. Simultaneously they were furiously pumping seawater into the coolant lines to keep water levels high enough to cool the internal vessels containing the nuclear reaction piles because water was leaking out so fast.
And the reaction piles had already melted through the bottoms of the internal vessels... and probably through the bottom of at least one external vessel; that or it had been cracked all the way through.

What can leak out, can evaporate out when the water becomes superheated enough and/or when the water levels within the reactor vessels fall enough.
Heck, without the zirconium (or equivalent) cladding to hold it in, the surface layer of an enriched uranium rod undergoing normal operating-level fission would sputter at normal operating temperature.
589. VR46L
248. wxmojo 7:34 PM GMT on April 18, 2012

All the howling tells me everything I need to know.

It is time that I shake the dust off my feet from this blog.

I bid adieu, and God bless
.





I will be honest I am an infrequent blogger here but read this blog a lot There are many times I shake my head in despair and disbelief and this morning was one of those times ,I do not know if this person is a genius or someone who is a humorous blogger Who would be described as a troll on this forum . Da Vinci and Galileo Galilei were both mistreated by their peers Yet today their scientific minds are revered throughout the world But it made me extremely sad to see someone treated the way this person was ..There was an extreme ,lack of charity, unkind treatment. And closed minds. if you don’t like what was written then just skip the post or try to reason with the person and not ridicule them..Just my opinion.... It reminded me of what happened a while ago when some great entertaining intelligent bloggers vanished from here …


Weather-wise here Another beautiful day In the British Isles but The weather is due to break on Saturday



Quoting TampaSpin:



First off, i am not sure what you consider a Tornado OUTBREAk....MUST it be 100 or more or is 5-10 sufficent to be an OUTBREAK.....YOU said their would be little chance of any Tornado's and i said the statement was FALSE....and i and the NWS agree your statement was COMPLETELY FALSE! There is a CHANCE of Tornado's and as i said before your CHOICE of WORDS was WRONG! THANK YOU!

Not to be rude but you do realize Saturday doesn't even have a slight risk?
And we could do without the caps. Thanks.
Wow, talk about downplaying what could be a serious situation.. SPC boys NOT siding with the EURO on this one, going by the NAM and GFS. I personally believe the storm will be deep and strong enough to support a substantial/widespread Severe Weather Outbreak across the Peninsula of Florida. We should start to see a SLIGHT RISK for Saturday, tomorrow morning as the models come better aligned.
Another sunny Thursday to be had here. Hope all have a great day.
From SPC this morning...

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...FL...

WHILE THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ADHERES TO THE OVERALL TRENDS
OF EARLIER MODEL DATA REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE NWRN GULF BASIN...A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND SWD SHIFT IS NOTED. IN
FACT THE LATEST GFS DIGS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND PREVENTS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SPREADING
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A BAND OF 50-60KT 500MB FLOW EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA BY 22/12Z. GIVEN THESE TRENDS
HAVE LOWERED THE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE SERN U.S. TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED/PLACEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH LATE IN
THE PERIOD. WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE NOTED
DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MORE THEN 5% PROBS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
410 AM EDT THU APR 19 2012

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND ARE NOW BRINGING THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
THEN OPENING IT UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
SUNDAY. THIS IN TURN HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY AND THEN EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING SUNDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL SEE SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOW DIMINISHED AS IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND/OR INSTABILITY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.
Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Thursday April 19
KS east - 2 to 3
MO west, north - 2 to 3
OK southwest - 2 to 3
OK north-central - 2 to 3

Friday April 20
AR southwest - 2 to 3
LA northwest - 2 to 3
TX east (east and north of San Antonio) - 2 to 3

Saturday April 21
LA southeast - 3
MS south - 3
AL south - 3
FL panhandle - 3
GA south - 3
FL peninsula (overnight) - 3
PA southeast - 2
MD - 2
VA north and west - 2
VA east - 2
TN east - 2
NC west - 2
GA north - 2
Al northeast/central - 2

Sunday April 22
FL east - 3
GA southeast - 3
SC east - 3
NC east - 3
VA southeast - 3
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAINS ON THE WEEKEND PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD FOR FLORIDA ANYTIME FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THEN
EAST TOWARD AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF AND NAM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER TROUGH POSITION/TIMING...WHICH NOW
INDICATE A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIGGING
FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF WHEN COMPARED TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
24 HRS AGO. IF THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION VERIFIES...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~35 KT) AND Q-G FORCING BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
30% hatched area today...

Quoting VR46L:
248. wxmojo 7:34 PM GMT on April 18, 2012

All the howling tells me everything I need to know.

It is time that I shake the dust off my feet from this blog.

I bid adieu, and God bless
.





I will be honest I am an infrequent blogger here but read this blog a lot There are many times I shake my head in despair and disbelief and this morning was one of those times ,I do not know if this person is a genius or someone who is a humorous blogger Who would be described as a troll on this forum . Da Vinci and Galileo Galilei were both mistreated by their peers Yet today their scientific minds are revered throughout the world But it made me extremely sad to see someone treated the way this person was ..There was an extreme ,lack of charity, unkind treatment. And closed minds. if you don’t like what was written then just skip the post or try to reason with the person and not ridicule them..Just my opinion.... It reminded me of what happened a while ago when some great entertaining intelligent bloggers vanished from here …
Many of us tried to reason with wxmojo; we often asked very politely for him to explain what it was he was seeing. He'd post one weather map after another atop which he had superimposed dozens of geometric shapes; we'd ask him to explain what it was those shapes were defining or outlining; he'd respond that he didn't know, but it sure was mysterious; we'd again ask him what it was he was showing; he'd become agitated and tell us that a) a person would have to be blind to not see what he was seeing, and b) if we didn't like it we could just ignore him.

That's not the way a community works, especially one that sometimes discusses science fact and theory at some length. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence; wxmojo failed to provide such evidence.

I'm a frequent contributor to other blogs beside this one; many of them would have not extended wxmojo the same patience and leeway he was granted here, but would have instead laughed him off the forum within minutes of posting his first shape-covered weather map. Just another reason to love WU...
Quoting aspectre:
581 mati: Dudes, what are you smoking?

Getting smoked is for lightweights. Physics is: Sure your idea is crazy, but is it crazy enough to be true?

585 TropicTraveler: Worked at a nuclear plant for some years. Don't see how uranium could possibly be mixed with cooling seawater. The two systems never mix (the coolant is in pipes separate from the pipes with radioactivity.) The nuclear pile could never "sputter off" into the cooling water.

We're talking about broken reactor vessels and cracked coolant lines at FukushimaDaiichi.
Emergency crews were using firehoses mounted on crane booms to spray seawater onto the reactor vessels so that the seawater could provide external cooling. Simultaneously they were furiously pumping seawater into the coolant lines to keep water levels high enough to cool the internal vessels containing the nuclear reaction piles because water was leaking out so fast.
And the reaction piles had already melted through the bottoms of the internal vessels... and probably through the bottom of at least one external vessel; that or it had been cracked all the way through.

What can leak out, can evaporate out when the water becomes superheated enough and/or when the water levels within the reactor vessels fall enough.
Heck, without the zirconium (or equivalent) cladding to hold it in, the surface layer of an enriched uranium rod undergoing normal operating-level fission would sputter at normal operating temperature.


Sorry about that. I thought there was reference to California and their "white sands" being now infused with buckyballs.
USGS
Glacier Monitoring Studies
Monitoring and Assessing Glacier Changes and Their Associated Hydrologic and Ecologic Effects in Glacier National Park



Purpose:

To systematically monitor changes in Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers and to determine the causes of changes, assess their ecological and hydrological effects, and predict future changes and effects.


Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers have receded rapidly since the Park’s establishment in 1910, primarily due to long-term changes in regional and global climate. These changes include warming, particularly of daily minimum temperatures, and persistent droughts. This warming is ongoing and the loss of the Park’s glaciers continues, with the park’s glaciers predicted to disappear by 2030.