WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

91L Near Tropical Depression Status; Entire SE U.S. Coast Could be Impacted

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:31 PM GMT on June 30, 2014

An area of disturbed weather over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, located about 130 miles east-northeast of Melbourne, Florida on Monday morning (Invest 91L), has grown more organized this morning. Surface pressures are falling, and 91L is close to tropical depression status. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed 91L had a well defined surface circulation, with heavy thunderstorms building and steadily organizing into spiral bands. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida showed these bands were already affecting the coast of Central Florida. Sea surface temperatures in this region were about 1°C above average, 27 - 28°C. The counter-clockwise circulation of an upper level high pressure over Florida was bringing northerly winds over 91L at high altitude, and these winds were creating light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. However, water vapor satellite loops show that the atmosphere has dried noticeably to the north of 91L since Sunday, and the northerly winds are driving this dry air in the heart of the storm. This dry air is interfering with development and keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of the circulation. The Hurricane Hunters will investigate 91L on Monday afternoon.


Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image of 91L taken at 10:45 am EDT Monday June 30, 2014. A large area of dry air (black colors) was to the north of the system, and was interfering with development. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. Wind forecast for 11 am Thursday, July 3, 2014, as made by the 06Z Monday June 30, 2014 run of the GFS model (left) and 00Z Monday run of the European model (right.) Both models are predicting that 91L will become a tropical storm and threaten the South Carolina coast on Thursday.

Forecast for 91L
Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast, but the models are in good agreement on the track of 91L. The disturbance should continue a slow southward to southwesterly motion on Monday, which would bring the storm very close to the coast of Florida by Tuesday. The system is expected to meander near the coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday, before a trough of low pressure to the north begins pulling the system to the north and northeast on Thursday and Friday. Heavy rains of at least 2 - 4" will likely affect the Northwest Bahamas and eastern coast of Florida Monday through Wednesday. Heavier rains of 4 - 8" are likely, since I expect 91L to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Heavy rains of 2 - 4" will spread to coastal Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts on Thursday and Friday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 60% and 80%, respectively. The 12Z Monday run of the SHIPS model shows the atmosphere surrounding 91L will get even drier this week, with the wind shear staying light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots. This dry air, in combination with potentially moderate wind shear, will slow development of 91L. If 91L makes landfall over Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday, interaction with land will also interfere with development. However, the storm will be over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream when the center is offshore, and we should not dismiss the possibility that 91L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength late this week, as some of the members of the 00Z Monday morning European model ensemble were suggesting. It is more likely, though, that 91L will struggle with land interaction, dry air and wind shear, and be at worst a medium-strength tropical storm named Arthur with 50 - 55 mph winds as it brushes the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina on Thursday and Friday. There is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast, so stay tuned.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. sar2401
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

HWRF @ 84 hours

Has the HWRF suddenly become the model of choice for intensity prediction?
Quoting sar2401:

Has the HWRF suddenly become the model of choice for intensity prediction?
LOL no it's just the most dramatic. Tonight, anyway.
Quoting 1501. sar2401:


Has the HWRF suddenly become the model of choice for intensity prediction?


I just like the result, wish a little weaker and further west though. Just want a 75 mph hurricane, no cat 2 or anything.
Quoting 1501. sar2401:


Has the HWRF suddenly become the model of choice for intensity prediction?


Not really considering the GFS has a similar solution... has a Cat 1 cane over the OBX taking the same track as is the HWRF.
1505. sar2401
Quoting windshear1993:
it seems like georgia always dodges a hurricane

Not as little as Alabama, but there's not a lot of Georgia that's exposed to hurricane.
Quoting 1450. Pallis1:

I was watching the doracho that almost ate Chicago, when I noticed this thing was creeping into the straights. You guys stay up all night watching it, I sleep now. Then when you are sleeping I, refreshed, will make my forecast.
Me Tarzan, You Jane! Where Boy?
Quoting 1501. sar2401:


Has the HWRF suddenly become the model of choice for intensity prediction?

More interest than anything else right now. The HWRF has performed great so far in the East Pacific, but whether that continues farther into the season -- and for both basins -- is unknown.
1508. wxhatt
Quoting 1497. sar2401:


Unfortunately, I'm far too old to speed read through 1490 posts at my age. :-) Can you imagine how many posts we'll have if this turns into an actual hurricane, especially if it gets anywhere near the Northeast ?


Pull scroll bar fast, and look for pretty pictures. LOL
1509. sar2401
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I just like the result, wish a little weaker and further west though. Just want a 75 mph hurricane, no cat 2 or anything.

LOL. "Just" a 75 mph hurricane. We had 75 mph winds from Ivan and didn't have power for a week. A minimal tropical storm is a lot nicer.
The attention given the HWRF is mostly in result to the HWRF's decent track record in the EPAC this year.
I tell ya, there is something heading for the coast.

1512. wxhatt
Quoting 1501. sar2401:


Has the HWRF suddenly become the model of choice for intensity prediction?


No, Just 'DOOM ON' predictions!
1513. sar2401
Quoting wxhatt:


Pull scroll bar fast, and look for pretty pictures. LOL

I've tried that. I think that's one of the things that locks up my computer. Not only that, but all that passing out from getting dizzy... :-)
Hey guys do you know what happened to TurtleHurricane???
Quoting 1501. sar2401:


Has the HWRF suddenly become the model of choice for intensity prediction?


it predicted the two Cat 4's well in the Pacific. i dont know much about it otherwise
Quoting 1504. tropicfreak:



Not really considering the GFS has a similar solution... has a Cat 1 cane over the OBX taking the same track as is the HWRF.


00GFS has it about 75 miles west of the HWRF if I'm not mistaken.
1517. sar2401
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I tell ya, there is something heading for the coast.


It pulls a hard right at 0733z and starts its rocket-like run for the entire East Coast. No problem for Florida at all...probably.
1518. wxhatt
Quoting 1511. ProgressivePulse:

I tell ya, there is something heading for the coast.




What do you see?
1519. nash36
Quoting 1500. StormJunkie:



Should be passing closest to us Friday morn/afternoon. Think they'll wait until Wed morning when there's a better track forecast. Like you said, shifts of 50-100 miles and the exact shape of the curve will make a big difference in what we see.


Say it with me, SJ- No trough stall! No trough stall!! We don't need the rush on the stores for the holiday weekend.
Quoting 1497. sar2401:


Unfortunately, I'm far too old to speed read through 1490 posts at my age. :-) Can you imagine how many posts we'll have if this turns into an actual hurricane, especially if it gets anywhere near the Northeast ?


I remember Sandy. :)
Quoting 1509. sar2401:


LOL. "Just" a 75 mph hurricane. We had 75 mph winds from Ivan and didn't have power for a week. A minimal tropical storm is a lot nicer.


I "only" had 60-70 mph winds in Irene and Isabel here in central VA and in Irene, being 100-150 miles from the center and we had plenty of wind damage to contend with.
1522. sar2401
Quoting nwobilderburg:


it predicted the two Cat 4's well in the Pacific. i dont know much about it otherwise

The CMC did a really good job with Andrea last year too. The HWRF might have improved on track prediction but its record for intensity prediction over the past decade or so is pretty dismal. Actually, all the model's intensity predictions beyond 24 hours are pretty dismal, it's just that the HWRF is even more dismal.
Quoting 1511. ProgressivePulse:

I tell ya, there is something heading for the coast.




Still drifting SW?
1524. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


I remember Sandy. :)

Indeed. After Sandy, you can be sure the numbers lurking here will double from those if this appears to even be a remote threat to the Northeast.
1525. sar2401
Quoting tropicfreak:


I "only" had 60-70 mph winds in Irene and Isabel here in central VA and in Irene, being 100-150 miles from the center and we had plenty of wind damage to contend with.

Yes indeed. Until you heard shingles tearing off and trees crashing all around you from just 75 mph winds, the concept is a lot more fun than reality.
1526. wxhatt
Quoting 1521. tropicfreak:



I "only" had 60-70 mph winds in Irene and Isabel here in central VA and in Irene, being 100-150 miles from the center and we had plenty of wind damage to contend with.


Yeah, that's plenty. Don't want to see anything like the 135mph gusts in Emily ever again!!
Quoting 1518. wxhatt:



What do you see?



Link
Big line headed towards wxchaser97 (Isaac).

1529. wxhatt
Quoting 1527. ProgressivePulse:



Link


Oh wow, it looks to be driving further SW
1530. nash36
Quoting 1526. wxhatt:



Yeah, that's plenty. Don't want to see anything like the 135mph gusts in Emily ever again!!


I have a "butt-ton" of tall pines in my backyard. A stiff fart will knock those puppies over. They are very tall and very thin. A CAT 1, and we leave.
1531. wxhatt
Quoting 1530. nash36:



I have a "butt-ton" of tall pines in my backyard. A stiff fart will knock those puppies over. They are very tall and very thin. A CAT 1, and we leave.


I hear ya man. Where are you at?
...DEPRESSION DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD...
2:00 AM EDT Tue Jul 1
Location: 27.5°N 79.2°W
Moving: SW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Quoting 1529. wxhatt:



Oh wow, it looks to be driving further SW


Quoting 1527. ProgressivePulse:



Link


^^ That is the center?
1534. vis0
Credit:: NOAA/NASA presented by Conagua(Mexico)
Subject:: POI (point of interest) cloud mass which might have tropical cyclonic "traits".
Imagery type(s):: water vapor 201407-01;0455zulu  +
        & nbsp;       &nb sp;     IR4 201407-01;0500zulu
Imagery area:: GoMx/Bay of Campeche


IR>    WV>
        & nbsp; Click for Full in popup.
        & nbsp;       &nb sp;    Hosted by imgbox.
Quoting 1528. Astrometeor:

Big line headed towards wxchaser97 (Isaac).


Severe thunderstorm watch just got issued. If the storms do impact my house, there's a good chance that I will experience severe gusts.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MIC059-091-093-099-115-125-147-161-163-011200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0382.140701T0545Z-140701T1200Z/

MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HILLSDALE LENAWEE LIVINGSTON
MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND
ST. CLAIR WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
Quoting 1529. wxhatt:



Oh wow, it looks to be driving further SW


Without a very well defined center with in 75 miles or so of a radar...hey can be very deceptive. Especially with developing systems. I can't find any evidence from bouy or sat that he is moving much of anywhere right now. Just sitting. A tiny, tiny bit of convection has fire on the N side of the center though.

Based on the new advisory, black dot is where the COC is located.
1538. sar2401
Quoting wxhatt:


No, Just 'DOOM ON' predictions!

So it would seem. I guess it's been long enough since some places have had a hurricane that people are wishcasting it to come to their house. If only I didn't have to pay homeowner's insurance or need electricity to survive the Alabama open hearth furnace heat, it might be fun.
1539. wxhatt
Quoting 1532. tropicfreak:

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD...
2:00 AM EDT Tue Jul 1
Location: 27.5N 79.2W
Moving: SW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph


Wow, this may actually do a 'Touch N Go' at Cape Canaveral.

Strong fronts can act to pull towards them for a bit prior to the turn north.

TD One Graphics Update (2:00 am Advisory) - click to enlarge)
The 2am advisory puts the center at 79.2W 27.5N, which i believe is just a mean of the newer low-level circulation embedded within the deep convection and the older, broader low-level circulation headed west. It's possible that the two centers eventually merge, or perhaps the older, broader one just dies out.
Based on the latest advisory, black dot =where the latest C.O.C is
1543. sar2401
Quoting wxhatt:


Oh wow, it looks to be driving further SW

At 2 mph, it seems like "driving" might be a slight exaggeration. More like coasting. :-)
1544. wxhatt
Quoting 1538. sar2401:


So it would seem. I guess it's been long enough since some places have had a hurricane that people are wishcasting it to come to their house. If only I didn't have to pay homeowner's insurance or need electricity to survive the Alabama open hearth furnace heat, it might be fun.


Seriously. I've been through 15 hurricanes, and none a picnic.

They should build an amusement park for those who want a hurricane thrill ride experience.

Do they realize there is the potential for loss of life?

Sheesh!!
1545. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 2am advisory puts the center at 79.2W 27.5N, which i believe is just a mean of the newer low-level circulation embedded within the deep convection and the older, broader low-level circulation headed west. It's possible that the two centers eventually merge, or perhaps the older, broader one just dies out.

Are you trying to confuse me? I'm already dizzy from trying to speed read 1490 posts. :-)
Very confusing looking at this link. "Where's Waldo"?

Link
1547. red0
Real time lighting strikes. Not much action around TD1 yet.

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lan g=en&page_0=30
Alright, third lucks a charm. Based on Advisory 1A, black dot is where the c.o.c is.
1549. nash36
Quoting 1531. wxhatt:



I hear ya man. Where are you at?


Technically, Ladson, SC. However, we're actually closer to N. Chas.
Quoting 1546. ProgressivePulse:

Very confusing looking at this link. "Where's Waldo"?

Link


Both Centers are drifting SW lol. What the hay.
Quoting 1544. wxhatt:



Seriously. I've been through 15 hurricanes, and none a picnic.

They should build an amusement park for those who want a hurricane thrill ride experience.

Do they realize there is the potential for loss of life?

Sheesh!!


Hey I have been in one before, sure they suck, but its part of life. If its gonna happen might as well appreciate the power of nature while its happening. Cause I guarantee you me rooting for it ain't changing where its going.
1552. sar2401
Quoting wxhatt:


Seriously. I've been through 15 hurricanes, and none a picnic.

They should build an amusement park for those who want a hurricane thrill ride experience.

Do they realize there is the potential for loss of life?

Sheesh!!

15 hurricanes? That has me beat by a country mile. You don't go looking for these things, do you? Like I wrote, it's more a concept thing for people who have never been through a hurricane. They aren't really thinking about things like damage and loss of life, just experiencing a cane. I can understand that. It's the out and out doomcasters who come here just to scare the begeezus out of people I have a hard time tolerating.
Quoting 1550. FIUStormChaser:



Both Centers are drifting SW lol. What the hay.


Right! I go with the one that is producing the convection but that could be why I don't sit in an NHC chair calling the shots.
1554. wxhatt
Quoting 1545. sar2401:


Are you trying to confuse me? I'm already dizzy from trying to speed read 1490 posts. :-)


ROFLMAO!
1555. wxhatt
Quoting 1546. ProgressivePulse:

Very confusing looking at this link. "Where's Waldo"?

Link


Oh my. He's Everywhere!!
1556. wxhatt
Quoting 1551. VAbeachhurricanes:



Hey I have been in one before, sure they suck, but its part of life. If its gonna happen might as well appreciate the power of nature while its happening. Cause I guarantee you me rooting for it ain't changing where its going.


That's for sure
Advisory 1A 2:00 EDT.

Position 0.1 degree S, 0.1 degree W, same pressure and maximum winds.
1558. wxhatt
Quoting 1552. sar2401:


15 hurricanes? That has me beat by a country mile. You don't go looking for these things, do you? Like I wrote, it's more a concept thing for people who have never been through a hurricane. They aren't really thinking about things like damage and loss of life, just experiencing a cane. I can understand that. It's the out and out doomcasters who come here just to scare the begeezus out of people I have a hard time tolerating.


True, doomcasters are like crywolf syndrome.

The majority of them were on the OBX Hatteras. Did a lot of moving in the military and was stationed
on waterfront property around our beautiful country!!
1559. vis0
Forgot to add this image to my last postclick to enlarge.

As to that red speck on the Tropical formation east of Florida, an anomaly or high top away from the center???
A few days ago someone said "someone turned ON the switch" in the Atlantic, i replied dimmer or 220 switch>
i think mother nature has tropical storm variety popcorn. Fujiwari in the pacific? as posted early by another member, conga line around the Yucatan.
Any Buoy Observations near freeport?


It looks like the low level center and the mid level center are decoupled. I could be wrong, but if you look at the western edge of Grand Bahama, there is a pronounced rotation which is moving West South West with embedded heavy thunderstorms. At the same time, you can clearly see a low level spin off the coast of Melbourne Florida well to the North of where I suspect the mid level rotation is. I am wondering if the mid level center will move to the north and re-couple with the low level swirl. Anyone else seeing this? Thoughts?
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Any Buoy Observations near freeport?


Yup. Getting frisky too.
Quoting 1544. wxhatt:



Seriously. I've been through 15 hurricanes, and none a picnic.

They should build an amusement park for those who want a hurricane thrill ride experience.

Do they realize there is the potential for loss of life?

Sheesh!!
There's a museum down here near tampa that has (or had) such a thing, kind of. It's this windtunnel you get to go inside and buckle up with safty goggles and earmuffs (the fan is very loud). Only went up to 74mph though, and it gives a false impression of the damage potential of that windspeed. It seems pretty tame in a controlled environment where nothing is blowing down/around.
Mississippi River at Davenport, Iowa has reached MAJOR flood stage and will get close to the record.

1566. wxhatt
Quoting 1561. VegasRain:



It looks like the low level center and the mid level center are decoupled. I could be wrong, but if you look at the western edge of Grand Bahama, there is a pronounced rotation which is moving West South West with embedded heavy thunderstorms. At the same time, you can clearly see a low level spin off the coast of Melbourne Florida well to the North of where I suspect the mid level rotation is. I am wondering if the mid level center will move to the north and re-couple with the low level swirl. Anyone else seeing this? Thoughts?


I've seen quite a few storms decouple due to the changing wind speed and direction with height.
Each case a different outcome. Some ejected, some eaten by the new COC, and some dissipate.
1567. sar2401
Quoting VegasRain:


It looks like the low level center and the mid level center are decoupled. I could be wrong, but if you look at the western edge of Grand Bahama, there is a pronounced rotation which is moving West South West with embedded heavy thunderstorms. At the same time, you can clearly see a low level spin off the coast of Melbourne Florida well to the North of where I suspect the mid level rotation is. I am wondering if the mid level center will move to the north and re-couple with the low level swirl. Anyone else seeing this? Thoughts?

Possibly. There is, and has been, a relationship between heavy thunderstorm activity and the location of the low relative to land in the Bahamas and the Florida coast. I'm not convinced about what would, or will, happen to TD1 if it puts more distance between itself and land. Even though the storm is more compact than last night at this time, it still seems the low is having a hard time getting consolidated. One thing for sure is that models are having just a difficult time of making sense of this as well, and more so than in the near term than the long term. The models and TD1 will have more than few more surprises for us over the next five days or so.
1568. wxhatt
Quoting 1566. wxhatt:



I've seen quite a few storms decouple due to the changing wind speed and direction with height.
Each case a different outcome. Some ejected, some eaten by the new COC, and some dissipate.

Bottom line, this storm isn't quite ready for primetime.
Quoting 1562. DonnieBwkGA:



Yup. Getting frisky too.


The SSW wind indicates the new center of TD1 is just northeast of that buoy?
1570. wxhatt
Quoting 1564. Forsaken:

There's a museum down here near tampa that has (or had) such a thing, kind of. It's this windtunnel you get to go inside and buckle up with safty goggles and earmuffs (the fan is very loud). Only went up to 74mph though, and it gives a false impression of the damage potential of that windspeed. It seems pretty tame in a controlled environment where nothing is blowing down/around.


Yeah, and very unrealistic with the lack of projectiles and debris!
1571. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
Mississippi River at Davenport, Iowa has reached MAJOR flood stage and will get close to the record.


Story about the flooding and storms at the Quad City Times tonight. Could be big trouble. It has already cancelled the big fireworks show held along the banks of the Mississippi as the park will be under water. A lot of disappointed kids if nothing else.
Quoting 1562. DonnieBwkGA:



Yup. Getting frisky too.


Very obvious surface low in the area looking at the wind history.
SLIGHT risk for me tomorrow. 2% for tornadoes, 15% for wind and hail.

1574. wxhatt
Quoting 1569. FIUStormChaser:



The SSW wind indicates the new center of TD1 is just northeast of that buoy?


That would mean the center more like WNW of that buoy.
Wednesday is the East Coast's turn.

Quoting 1572. ProgressivePulse:



Very obvious surface low in the area looking at the wind history.


So which center is the dominant one?
1577. sar2401
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:


Yup. Getting frisky too.

Hmm. Freeport airport quit reporting at 8:00 pm EDT. Don't know what the problem is there but they are usually the only reliable weather station in the Bahamas.
My 4th of July should be nice. Not hot, sunny and dry. Much better than the last two years.



Good night everyone.
1579. wxhatt
Quoting 1576. FIUStormChaser:



So which center is the dominant one?


Not sure right now, but the deeper lower pressure should be dominant.
1580. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
Wednesday is the East Coast's turn.


Notice that, once again, I'm going to get nothing. Almost got rain this evening when one decent looking rogue thunderstorm popped up just south of Columbus GA. Had a 29,000 foot top, a 36 VIL, and was driving toward me at 21 knots. Looked great until it got about 5 miles from town and then dissolved...literally. We got about 10 drops of rain from some virga that managed to make it to the ground.
Quoting 1569. FIUStormChaser:



The SSW wind indicates the new center of TD1 is just northeast of that buoy?


Northwest of the buoy.
Quoting 1579. wxhatt:



Not sure right now, but the deeper lower pressure should be dominant.


The one on the very tip of Newport, directly east of West Palm Beach? Or the east east of Melbourne?
Quoting 1576. FIUStormChaser:



So which center is the dominant one?


Would have been great to have two center fixes tonight. We'll find out at 2pm est. tomorrow.
G'morning, Sensai Sar; hope all is well up in Alabama, =)
1585. wxhatt
Quoting 1582. TropicalTrouble2014:



The one on the very tip of Newport, directly east of West Palm Beach? Or the east east of Melbourne?


Don't ask me, my eyes are crossing...........

1586. sar2401
Quoting wxhatt:


True, doomcasters are like crywolf syndrome.

The majority of them were on the OBX Hatteras. Did a lot of moving in the military and was stationed
on waterfront property around our beautiful country!!

Ah. Thank you for your service. Sounds like you did get some pleasant postings when there were no hurricanes about at least. Some of the doomcasters with this storm have not just been people taking the most pessimistic view of the likely intensity and path but people posting absolutely ignorant or even false information. The second by second flood of garbage available on Twitter hasn't helped matters any.
Based on the buoy readings from the Cape, and off shore, and Freeport...The center is to the N of Freeport (East of Melbourne) and is relatively well defined given the lack of convection over it. The dominant llc is the one to the N that can be seen on WU radar. Pressures are falling across the area again...but that llc has to get some convection on more than one side to do anything.
1588. sar2401
Quoting TropicalTrouble2014:
G'morning, Sensai Sar; hope all is well up in Alabama, =)
Good morning as well, although Sensai hardly fits me. :-) It's dry and hot down here. I mean, really hot. Had a high of 101 today. BMX is actually predicting a high of 101 Wednesday, which means it will get to about 106. With overnight lows only in the mid-70's, I have a lot of admiration for people who survived here before air conditioning. I don't know that I'd die without it, but I'd surely feel like I was going to die.
Quoting 1581. DonnieBwkGA:



Northwest of the buoy.


Here is the link Progressive Posted Earlier:

The south llc seems to be taking shape.

Link
Quoting 1583. ProgressivePulse:



Would have been great to have two center fixes tonight. We'll find out at 2pm est. tomorrow.


Look at the location of the Low.


1592. sar2401
Quoting StormJunkie:
Based on the buoy readings from the Cape, and off shore, and Freeport...The center is to the N of Freeport (East of Melbourne) and is relatively well defined given the lack of convection over it. The dominant llc is the one to the N that can be seen on WU radar. Pressures are falling across the area again...but that llc has to get some convection on more than one side to do anything.

I did notice that the observation tower located at the NW tip of Grand Bahama that Donnie posted a link to has had the pressure actually rise a bit over the past several hours. I realize that TD 1 is located in a relatively high pressure environment but a pressure of 29.92 isn't very impressive considering the pressure at the SAR Ranchette is presently at 29.95. At some point, the low not only has to consolidate but it has to start to deepen...a lot, if it's going to get to what some models predict will be about 28.80 inches at some point in TD 1's life.
1593. sar2401
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

00Z EURO @ 72 HOURS

Uh oh. InstantWeatherMaps doesn't like you. :-)
It takes so long to finish blogs on three active tropical cyclones...

But if anyone cares to read, I just did one on the aforementioned systems.

If you only care about TD One, I suggest ignoring the eastern Pacific nonsense.

Link

...If anyone's still up that is. >_>

00Z EURO @ 72 hours.
Images and I aren't doing too well tonight lol.
Turn off the topo and cities. The center is N of Freeport evidenced by buoy's, radar, and sat (with what you can get from those at night.) Now, there is more moisture on the N side of the system than there has been recently...but still had a long way to go.
Alright let's see if this one works, EURO @ 72 hours
Quoting 1592. sar2401:


I did notice that the observation tower located at the NW tip of Grand Bahama that Donnie posted a link to has had the pressure actually rise a bit over the past several hours. I realize that TD 1 is located in a relatively high pressure environment but a pressure of 29.92 isn't very impressive considering the pressure at the SAR Ranchette is presently at 29.95. At some point, the low not only has to consolidate but it has to start to deepen...a lot, if it's going to get to what some models predict will be about 28.80 inches at some point in TD 1's life.


Quoting 1588. sar2401:

Good morning as well, although Sensai hardly fits me. :-) It's dry and hot down here. I mean, really hot. Had a high of 101 today. BMX is actually predicting a high of 101 Wednesday, which means it will get to about 106. With overnight lows only in the mid-70's, I have a lot of admiration for people who survived here before air conditioning. I don't know that I'd die without it, but I'd surely feel like I was going to die.


I can imagine. Talk about horrid heat, =(

Try to stay cool, anyway that you possibly can.

I'm in SF, so I can relate if it's any consolation.

EURO @ 78 hours via WUNDERMAP, cat 1 hurricane just off the NC coast before it shoots NEward
They are taking their sweet time getting the 06z BAMs out....
1603. TXCWC
  • 0Z GFS run has future Arthur keeping near hurricane gusts east/off shore of the outer banks
img src=" photo gfs01_zpsf4aa2353.gif">



0Z Euro follows almost exact same path and strength as 0Z GFS keeping worst of the winds east of outer banks as well
<>img src=" photo euro_zpsc9e4f3d0.png">
Tornado sirens just finished going off. Damaging winds headed for my area (70mph).

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MIC125-163-010800-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0039.140701T0655Z-140701T0800Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
255 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
OAKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 400 AM EDT

* AT 250 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM COHOCTAH TO MILAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH LYON AROUND 305 AM EDT.
NEW HUDSON AND SUMPTER TOWNSHIP AROUND 310 AM EDT.
HOLLY AND WIXOM AROUND 315 AM EDT.
HOLLY STATE RECREATION AREA AND WOLVERINE LAKE AROUND 320 AM EDT.
WOODHAVEN AND WEST BLOOMFIELD AROUND 325 AM EDT.
ORTONVILLE AND WYANDOTTE AROUND 330 AM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
DETROIT... WYANDOTTE... WEST BLOOMFIELD...
TRENTON... TROY... TAYLOR...
SOUTHFIELD... SOUTH LYON... ROYAL OAK...
ROMULUS... ROCHESTER... PONTIAC...
OXFORD... ORTONVILLE... NOVI...
NORTHVILLE... MILFORD... LIVONIA...
HOLLY... GROSSE ILE... FLAT ROCK...
DOWNTOWN DETROIT... DEARBORN... CLARKSTON...
CANTON... BIRMINGHAM... BELLEVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4209 8329 4209 8353 4243 8355 4244 8366
4287 8369 4288 8310 4245 8308 4245 8293
4237 8290 4233 8296 4232 8306 4229 8309
4224 8313 4212 8311 4207 8318 4203 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 265DEG 39KT 4277 8394 4209 8367

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
Major shift to the W in BAMs. All of them bring it on shore in Fla.
Quoting 1605. StormJunkie:

Major shift to the W in BAMs. All of them bring it on shore in Fla.


If the shear does not relax as quickly as anticipated, I honestly wouldn't rule that out. The motif for a sheared system is to follow the convection where there is less shear.
Quoting 1605. StormJunkie:

Major shift to the W in BAMs. All of them bring it on shore in Fla.


Oh God, no.

The beginning of yet another possible shift back to Florida?

What about the rest of the 0z suite, Junkie?
1608. sar2401
Quoting wxchaser97:
Tornado sirens just finished going off. Damaging winds headed for my area (70mph).

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MIC125-163-010800-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0039.140701T0655Z-140701T0800Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
255 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
OAKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 400 AM EDT

* AT 250 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM COHOCTAH TO MILAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH LYON AROUND 305 AM EDT.
NEW HUDSON AND SUMPTER TOWNSHIP AROUND 310 AM EDT.
HOLLY AND WIXOM AROUND 315 AM EDT.
HOLLY STATE RECREATION AREA AND WOLVERINE LAKE AROUND 320 AM EDT.
WOODHAVEN AND WEST BLOOMFIELD AROUND 325 AM EDT.
ORTONVILLE AND WYANDOTTE AROUND 330 AM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
DETROIT... WYANDOTTE... WEST BLOOMFIELD...
TRENTON... TROY... TAYLOR...
SOUTHFIELD... SOUTH LYON... ROYAL OAK...
ROMULUS... ROCHESTER... PONTIAC...
OXFORD... ORTONVILLE... NOVI...
NORTHVILLE... MILFORD... LIVONIA...
HOLLY... GROSSE ILE... FLAT ROCK...
DOWNTOWN DETROIT... DEARBORN... CLARKSTON...
CANTON... BIRMINGHAM... BELLEVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4209 8329 4209 8353 4243 8355 4244 8366
4287 8369 4288 8310 4245 8308 4245 8293
4237 8290 4233 8296 4232 8306 4229 8309
4224 8313 4212 8311 4207 8318 4203 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 265DEG 39KT 4277 8394 4209 8367

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

Keep your head down and good luck.
Hi Kors, good to have you on, friend, =)
Quoting 1609. TropicalTrouble2014:

Hi Kors, good to have you on, friend, =)


I've been on, it just took three hours to write my blog is all.
1611. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


If the shear does not relax as quickly as anticipated, I honestly wouldn't rule that out. The motif for a sheared system is to follow the convection where there is less shear.

How are you doing, Kori?

OTOH, the models have done more wobbling than TD1 has so far, so I don't put a lot of faith in them. It has to at least start going faster than 2 mph before it makes it anywhere before Labor Day. :-)
Quoting 1607. TropicalTrouble2014:



Oh God, no.

The beginning of yet another possible shift back to Florida?

What about the rest of the 0z suite, Junkie?


00z suite is 7 hours old. May still be good, but I'd expect to see at least a small shift W in the 06z globals. If it comes onshore in Fl; it won't have time to get it's act together and will amount to a breezy wet week in the SE.
1613. sar2401
Quoting TXCWC:
  • 0Z GFS run has future Arthur keeping near hurricane gusts east/off shore of the outer banks
img src=" photo gfs01_zpsf4aa2353.gif">



0Z Euro follows almost exact same path and strength as 0Z GFS keeping worst of the winds east of outer banks as well
img src=" photo euro_zpsc9e4f3d0.png">

As long as those winds stay in the eastern quadrant and it doesn't actually make landfall, some beach erosion should be about the worst effect. With that scenario, you don't even get much beneficial rain.
Pressures are falling near Freeport, lowest pressure reading so far 29.87inhg. Yesterday at this time 30.01inhg. Settlement Point, GBI, Bahamas
Quoting 1611. sar2401:


How are you doing, Kori?

OTOH, the models have done more wobbling than TD1 has so far, so I don't put a lot of faith in them. It has to at least start going faster than 2 mph before it makes it anywhere before Labor Day. :-)


I'm starting to feel better. Finally.

The guidance isn't particularly good in these situations, I agree, but just because they can't handle the storm well doesn't mean they can't give somewhat accurate depictions of the synoptic pattern. So far the ECMWF has the most believable solution.
1616. 7544
td 1 is looking good for dmax so this is going to hang out where it is for the next 24 hours or go further south tia looks like alittle westward movement at this hour ?
Quoting 1612. StormJunkie:



00z suite is 7 hours old. May still be good, but I'd expect to see at least a small shift W in the 06z globals. If it comes onshore in Fl; it won't have time to get it's act together and will amount to a breezy wet week in the SE.

Quoting 1610. KoritheMan:



I've been on, it just took three hours to write my blog is all.


3 hours? WOW! You pour heart and soul into putting them together, I see.

Now I feel compelled to go read it.
1618. sar2401
Quoting StormJunkie:


00z suite is 7 hours old. May still be good, but I'd expect to see at least a small shift W in the 06z globals. If it comes onshore in Fl; it won't have time to get it's act together and will amount to a breezy wet week in the SE.

Really, I realize that every storm that makes landfall in Florida is nearly the worst in weather records but having it make landfall and meander up the spine of Florida would be about the best outcome for this storm. If the intensity and convection isn't much worse than it is now, Florida will have that breezy, rainy week, but the interaction with land should pretty much kill the chances that this will end up as a hurricane further north. Now, if I can just wishcast the remnant low a little further west into Alabama... :-)
Quoting 1618. sar2401:


Really, I realize that every storm that makes landfall in Florida is nearly the worst in weather records but having it make landfall and meander up the spine of Florida would be about the best outcome for this storm. If the intensity and convection isn't much worse than it is now, Florida will have that breezy, rainy week, but the interaction with land should pretty much kill the chances that this will end up as a hurricane further north. Now, if I can just wishcast the remnant low a little further west into Alabama... :-)


Hell, if you can wishcast it into Louisiana, I'd be happy with even a remnant low. Fay brought us some heavy rains as it moved into southwest Mississippi if I'm not mistaken.

I'd even take an Edouard, where all we get are some breezy conditions.

Yes, consider me desperate. :)
1620. sar2401
Quoting 7544:
td 1 is looking good for dmax so this is going to hang out where it is for the next 24 hours or go further south tia looks like alittle westward movement at this hour ?

DMAX is still about four hours away so it's kind of hard to tell what it will look like then. It should start moving west before it makes its predicted turn to the north or northeast. I don't really know if that has started. There's nothing to really push it around much right now so it is going to sit there until it starts to feel the trough to the north. It's a pretty deep trough for the first of July, so it should start to tug on TD1 pretty good within the next 24 hours.
What about me, gents?

I'm in Miami and we haven't experienced a cane since Wilma, =(
TD 1 might make landfall in Florida if it continues it movement for all day tomorrow,and for the HWRF model I believe it was correct with Amanda and Cristina because they became cat 4 and usually the HWRF explodes almost every storm, so unless I see more consistency I will keep my faith in that model at moderate level.
1623. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hell, if you can wishcast it into Louisiana, I'd be happy with even a remnant low. Fay brought us some heavy rains as it moved into southwest Mississippi if I'm not mistaken.

I'd even take an Edouard, where all we get are some breezy conditions.

Yes, consider me desperate. :)

LOL. I was hoping that one of the very first model runs that showed it out into the Gulf and then into Louisiana would work out for you but, alas, it appears that won't be the case. The Euro has been like a pit bull hanging on to the track for TD1 for the past five days so it's kind of hard to discount it, especially since the GFS seems to be getting on board right now. You can see the leading edge of the front/trough in the upper left of this view, so it's right on schedule.

Quoting 1622. allancalderini:

TD 1 might make landfall in Florida if it continues it movement for all day tomorrow,and for the HWRF model I believe it was correct with Amanda and Cristina because they became cat 4 and usually the HWRF explodes almost every storm, so unless I see more consistency I will keep my faith in that model at moderate level.


The HWRF's more westward solutions over the last couple of days have likely been inflated by a false signal in the GFS which keeps the depression weak.

6z HWRF should be interesting since the GFS was stronger at 0z.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1614. wxwonder1:

Pressures are falling near Freeport, lowest pressure reading so far 29.87inhg. Yesterday at this time 30.01inhg. Settlement Point, GBI, Bahamas


Lowest pressure is at buoy just off the Cape.
1627. sar2401
Quoting allancalderini:
TD 1 might make landfall in Florida if it continues it movement for all day tomorrow,and for the HWRF model I believe it was correct with Amanda and Cristina because they became cat 4 and usually the HWRF explodes almost every storm, so unless I see more consistency I will keep my faith in that model at moderate level.

Good morning, Allan. Don't forget that the HWRF also bombed out Boris as well, and that didn't come to pass. If a model bombs out every storm and happens to get two big storms in an El Nino year, that doesn't give me a lot of faith in what had been a poorly performing model. We shall see if the HWRF has what will soon be Arthur right.
1628. vis0
CREDIT: : NWS (Southeast radar)
Subject:: invest 91L/TD1/... (this invest-ment took longer to mature than my CD, that's looong)
Imagery:: radar
Imagery period:: 201407-01;0518 till 201407-01;0618UTC
;   (exclusive Gro Groove presentation)     ...not responsible for anything knocked over while grooving to the
beat..careful Gro/Southeasterners as to Tornado spawned by a pass by,
usually say tie down the beach ball but this might get serious. Careful singing happy birthday there's a fee take the xpress fee(a few 100s) the regular fee involves 2 cents per age geesh the world doesn't have enuff fingers to add that up.
Quoting 1604. wxchaser97:

Tornado sirens just finished going off. Damaging winds headed for my area (70mph).

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MIC125-163-010800-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0039.140701T0655Z-140701T0800Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
255 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
OAKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 400 AM EDT

* AT 250 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM COHOCTAH TO MILAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTH LYON AROUND 305 AM EDT.
NEW HUDSON AND SUMPTER TOWNSHIP AROUND 310 AM EDT.
HOLLY AND WIXOM AROUND 315 AM EDT.
HOLLY STATE RECREATION AREA AND WOLVERINE LAKE AROUND 320 AM EDT.
WOODHAVEN AND WEST BLOOMFIELD AROUND 325 AM EDT.
ORTONVILLE AND WYANDOTTE AROUND 330 AM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
DETROIT... WYANDOTTE... WEST BLOOMFIELD...
TRENTON... TROY... TAYLOR...
SOUTHFIELD... SOUTH LYON... ROYAL OAK...
ROMULUS... ROCHESTER... PONTIAC...
OXFORD... ORTONVILLE... NOVI...
NORTHVILLE... MILFORD... LIVONIA...
HOLLY... GROSSE ILE... FLAT ROCK...
DOWNTOWN DETROIT... DEARBORN... CLARKSTON...
CANTON... BIRMINGHAM... BELLEVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4209 8329 4209 8353 4243 8355 4244 8366
4287 8369 4288 8310 4245 8308 4245 8293
4237 8290 4233 8296 4232 8306 4229 8309
4224 8313 4212 8311 4207 8318 4203 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 265DEG 39KT 4277 8394 4209 8367

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

If I ever for some reason live in the states I will probably live in the state where they are less tornadoes. Tornadoes scare me to death.
Morning all...
Quoting 1614. wxwonder1:

Pressures are falling near Freeport, lowest pressure reading so far 29.87inhg. Yesterday at this time 30.01inhg. Settlement Point, GBI, Bahamas
This is West End. Used to be a pretty neat marina / hotel there at one point.
Pressure is prolly not still falling at Freeport airport.
Tropical storm Arthur is here!
1 blob of convection on north side ... lots of dry air preventing anything