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91L Growing More Organized; Will Bring Heavy Rains to Florida and the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:45 PM GMT on June 29, 2014

An area of disturbed weather over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, about 230 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida (Invest 91L) has grown more organized since Saturday, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression early this week. Satellite loops on Sunday morning showed 91L with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but the system had a pronounced spin, and the heavy thunderstorms were organizing into spiral bands. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida showed two of these bands about 75 - 150 miles east of the Central Florida coast. Sea surface temperatures in this region were about 1°C above average, 27 - 28°C--plenty of heat energy for a developing tropical cyclone. Wind shear was light, 5 - 10 knots, but was enough to keep any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of 91L. Water vapor satellite loops showed some modest patches of dry air to the north of 91L, and this dry air was retarding development on Sunday morning. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 91L on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 91L, taken at approximately 18:30 UTC (2:30 pm EDT) on Sunday, June 29, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 91L
The 12Z Sunday run of the SHIPS model showed shear rising to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, beginning on Monday, and remaining moderate until the end of the week. There is a significant area of dry air to the north of 91L over North Carolina that may work its way south and get wrapped into its circulation on Monday and Tuesday, but this dry air should diminish on Wednesday. With the disturbance parked over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, organization into a tropical depression is a good possibility. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40% and 70%, respectively. As of 11am EDT, the appearance of 91L on satellite images had improved to the point where I'd put the 2-day odds of development at 50%. Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast. The models all predict a slow southward drift on Sunday, followed by a southwesterly motion on Monday, which would bring the storm very close to the coast of Florida. The 06Z Sunday run of the GFS model has 91L making landfall over Florida on Tuesday, while the 00Z UKMET and European models stall the storm offshore, then accelerate it to the northeast later in the week, caught by a trough of low pressure to the north. Regardless of the exact track of 91L, the coast of Central Florida and the Northwest Bahamas are likely to receive heavy rains of at least 2 - 4" on Monday and Tuesday from 91L. If 91L develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, widespread rainfall amounts of 4 - 8" will likely fall in coastal Central Florida and the Northwest Bahamas. Heavy rains are a potential threat for the coasts of Northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late in the week, but there is high uncertainty in this possibility.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It is going to miss the trough
Quoting 995. FOREX:

What is the approximate timing of the trough picking up 91L?
WE WILL SEE DRY AIR, SAL , SHEAR, FIZZLE, ALL YEAR AGAIN.... IM COMMING BACK NEXT YEAR
1004. Mikla
Hmmm... Vacationing in the Outer Banks and thought I would check in to see what is going on with any tropical systems. To my surprise... Guess we'll just have to wait and see how things change over the next couple of days.
Blame it on El Nino! :)

The Atlantic Basin - When it comes to the number of named storms in a season, or how many systems that might develop ... the Atlantic is one of the most variable in the world. You might get 4 named storms (1983), or end up with 28 (2005) !!!
Quoting 994. StormTrackerScott:



Different year same issues. For whatever reason for 3 years now dry air and shear has ruled the Atlantic Basin.


And lack of vertical instability.
Quoting 1005. Stormwatch247:

Blame it on El Nino! :)

The Atlantic Basin - When it comes to the number of named storms in a season, or how many systems that might develop ... the Atlantic is one of the most variable in the world. You might get 4 named storms (1983), or end up with 28 (2005) !!!



El-Nino looks like its vanishing and also there was no El-Nino to blame the last 2 years.
1008. StormWx
Our El Nino casters on here havent posted the recent numbers, probably because we have seen the numbers in all the Nino regions falling as quickly as they rose the past few days. Of course, we will see what the weekly average was for last week soon but if this continues we could even see 0.5C threshold hit again. No super or strong El Nino here yet!







1009. WxLogic
Just a little positional perspective when compared to HWRF 06Z forecast track.

Below you'll see in yellow the 24HR track as advertised by HWRF. As we can see so far 91L is south of the forecast path.

Quoting 1009. WxLogic:

Just a little positional perspective when compared to HWRF 06Z forecast track.

Below you'll see in yellow the 24HR track as advertised by HWRF. As we can see so far 91L is south of the forecast path.




What's even more interesting is the HWRF doesn't wrap 91L up until it comes ashore in SE FL. It's then the HWRF intensifies 91L as it moves north across eastern FL.
This could be why HWRF intensifies 91L close to FL because look at this upper high near the FL east coast. 91L is heading straight for better conditions.

1014. FOREX
Quoting 1012. StormTrackerScott:

This could be why HWRF intensifies 91L close to FL because look at this upper high near the FL east coast. 91L is heading straight for better conditions.




What chance would you give for the trough missing 91L?
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0630 AM EDT MON 30 JUNE 2014 AMD
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JULY 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-029 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 --CHANGED
A. 30/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 30/1530Z
D. 28.6N 78.7W
E. 30/1745Z TO 30/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70 --NO CHANGE
A. 01/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 30/2115Z
D. 27.5N 78.5W
E. 30/2330Z TO 01/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS:
A. THE INVEST MISSION FOR 29/1800Z WAS CANCELED
BY NHC AT 29/1135Z.
B. THE 30/1200Z FIX REQUIREMENT IN TCPOD 14-028
HAS BEEN CHANGED TO THE INVEST OUTLINED ABOVE.
C. MISSION FOR 30/1200Z HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 30/1800Z.
And look at the 8AM

Will check back later. Will only note that formation has not yet occurred. Until that happens, with a closed center fix, it will be impossible to get a handle on where it will go in the future. I would not obsess too much with the track models at this point and be thankful that the complex remains offshore with the exception of the Bahamas that are in the thick of things either way it goes.
Quoting 1007. StormTrackerScott:



El-Nino looks like its vanishing and also there was no El-Nino to blame the last 2 years.


vanishing you say what dos that mean
1019. intampa
well hopefully all this talk of 91l and florida rain will actually happen this time. we need rain on the west coast/tampa area. usually when the models/forecasts etc etc call for all this rain the opposite happens.


Quoting 979. StormTrackerScott:
The strange thing is our basin is the only basin that keeps having these issues with tropical systems not being able to intensify.

Can you say weather modification???
; )
1021. Patrap
The Systems envelope is purty stable, and the consensus is there, so for now...


Nuttin but butter and knife.

91L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop

click image for loop

warmer.water.ahead
Via FB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20140630_pa_FiveDayO utlookGraphic.pdf or watch the video: http://youtu.be/lSTAGhQsZk8

Beginning at 2 p.m. EDT July 1st, NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) will introduce an experimental five-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO) to accompany its text Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO).
It will be available for both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins and indicate the formation potential of current and future disturbances during the next five days. Shaded areas will represent the potential tropical cyclone formation areas, color-coded by development likelihood.
Also effective at 2 p.m. EDT July 1st, the 48-hour GTWO will no longer indicate the locations of disturbances by encircling them. Instead, for consistency with the new five-day graphic, locations of current disturbances will be marked with an "X".

....get ready for the complaints about "change"
1024. Michfan
Good morning all. Once i gets those storms wrapped around its center it will be able to intensify further. Dry air is hindering it at the moment.
1025. Patrap


Beginning at 2 p.m. EDT July 1st, NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) will introduce an experimental five-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO) to accompany its text Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO).






no more t.storms in the center
1028. ricderr
Our El Nino casters on here havent posted the recent numbers, probably because we have seen the numbers in all the Nino regions falling as quickly as they rose the past few days. Of course, we will see what the weekly average was for last week soon but if this continues we could even see 0.5C threshold hit again. No super or strong El Nino here yet!


i will say this once again......i probably more than most....enjoy the daily values...i look at the enso.....soi...i know when the models run.......will read the cpc weekly report as soon as it is up...the aussies have their update the first......however......if you want to look foolish.....if you want to keep the crow factory in business...make long term predictions using those same daily values.....it's trends...it's long term averages.....that make up an el nino event
1029. FOREX
Forecaster1 posted that the trough will miss 91L, does anyone agree with that?
The COC seems to be tightening up and it is beginning to draw in some moisture from the south... See if it can hook up to that moisture and wrap up?
1031. MahFL
"moves slowly
southwestward and thens turns northward"

"Thens" ? ....more proof reading needed :).
91L will be moving into the gulf stream soon and wind shear will go down too! 91L is heading straight for better conditions.




Very surprised to see that the TW jumped so far north overnight. But looks like once again... the rain, heavy rain, will pass only 1 mile S of us, leaving us DRY :/
1034. ricderr
here is the running SOI.....to give some information......an soi at 8.0 or above usually indicates a la nina event......-8.0 or below...typically means we are in an el nino event.....the SOI has remained positive spring to now....which is oppositte of where it should be....the third number to the right of the date...is the daily value...it's the nosiest....just three days ago it was at -24.....way below the el nino thresshold...but the fluctuations can be enormous....fun to read....but don't make any long term decisions based on it....the fourth number...is the 30 day average...it's what is used for measuring the progress of el nino and what is important...it has finally dippped into negative numbers...the final set up values is the 90 day average...and good for long term trends


30 Jun 2014 1014.63 1015.10 -12.37 -0.84 3.45
1035. Grothar


First large and extremely dangerous tornado of the day in Nebraska (just northwest of Pilger...). This is just one of what should be several this afternoon.

1037. MahFL
Can anyone explain the extra orange lines over the system ?, even thought the shear has not changed much.

1038. MahFL
Quoting 1036. TropicalAnalystwx13:

First large and extremely dangerous tornado of the day in Nebraska (just northwest of Pilger...).

Pilger again, sheesh.
1039. Grothar
It seems the trough should be in place to move 91L back north.




1040. hydrus
I live in Rockledge, FL just about due west of the center and today I can tell the center is tightening up because there are low clouds moving pretty fast due south. However the air feels pretty dry comparatively speaking for a tropical system. The clouds do not seem to have the typical tropical construction so that dry air is definitely in the system. Be interesting to see what happens as this is the first time I have ever lived so close to a coast for tropical season! Not too fearful since the elevations here are decently high. Not like Louisiana. Lol
1042. ricderr
california news becomes grimmer and grimmer


California drought blankets entire state; El Niño forecast dims

Not too long ago in this season of California’s massive and extended drought, climate experts saw a small glimmer of hope on the horizon: Predictions for a wet El Niño season coming in the winter that would bring badly needed rain and relief to a parched state.

Now that glimmer is fading fast, and the drought has gotten even worse.

One hundred percent of California is in a severe drought, 77 percent is in an extreme drought and 33 percent is in an exceptional drought, according to a report released last week by the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Neb.

“Those are remarkable numbers,” said Mark Svoboda, a climatologist and the center’s monitoring program leader.

The drought monitoring team in Lincoln has never seen an exceptional drought since it started keeping detailed data in 1999. The D4 category — a foreboding maroon color on a California drought map — extends from Sacramento and the Bay Area through the Central Valley, Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.

Los Angeles County and counties south and east register a D3 for extreme drought, mostly because the region has more reservoirs filled to the brim to fight the drought, now in its third year, Svoboda said.

Predictions for a much-anticipated wet 2014-15 winter are waning.

“The El Niño had a very promising, dramatic surge in January, February and March, but now as we enter summer, all of a sudden it is disappearing,” said climatologist Bill Patzert, looking up from a dozen satellite images on his computer screen at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory near Pasadena. “The great wet hope is going to be the great wet disappointment.”

Patzert, who once was booed off the stage at an American Meteorological Society meeting in January 2007 for predicting an El Niño would fizzle, often goes against the scientific grain. However, that year, the El Niño, a warming of the ocean waters that often brings rain and sometimes flooding, had weakened as he said it would, resulting in the driest rain season in the history of Los Angeles, up to that time
Warming up


1045. Grothar
Quoting 1023. CaicosRetiredSailor:

Via FB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20140630_pa_FiveDayO utlookGraphic.pdf or watch the video: http://youtu.be/lSTAGhQsZk8

Beginning at 2 p.m. EDT July 1st, NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) will introduce an experimental five-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO) to accompany its text Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO).
It will be available for both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins and indicate the formation potential of current and future disturbances during the next five days. Shaded areas will represent the potential tropical cyclone formation areas, color-coded by development likelihood.
Also effective at 2 p.m. EDT July 1st, the 48-hour GTWO will no longer indicate the locations of disturbances by encircling them. Instead, for consistency with the new five-day graphic, locations of current disturbances will be marked with an "X".

....get ready for the complaints about "change"


Why can't they leave things alone?
if 91 L makes landfall over Florida we can write it off and say...Next !!
Like Drake said about yesterday, it will be interesting to see 91L effect here in South FL regarding the sea breeze and afternoon thunderstorms. Bands coming to town? rock on
Looks like the 2014 season will be average to slightly above average... in terms of named storms (not sure about ACE)
Quoting 1007. StormTrackerScott:



El-Nino looks like its vanishing and also there was no El-Nino to blame the last 2 years.


Yes, El Nino was not around for the 2011-2012 active hurricane years.

Some weathercasters noted the "lack" of storms developing or reaching their peak maximum intensities in the Atlantic deep tropics (during the 2011 & 2012 hurricane seasons) was possibly related to a stronger than normal Azores/Bermuda High Pressure and the Saharan dust. Lots of dry air in the tropics for the last few years. It is interesting how many hurricanes gained major status north of 20 degrees Latitude.

2013 had 13 named storms, and a post sub-tropical storm, but the only favorable area seemed to be the BOC. There was so much wind shear, and ULLs all over the Atlantic, keeping storms from developing.

Although it has not been "officially declared," the weather seems to be so El-Nino-ish lately, especially in the Southeast US. Even if it is a weak one. Remember, this is just an observation ... Crow does not sound tasty! LoL!

Let's see what happens during the heart of the hurricane season, it is still fairly early in the season.
1050. LargoFl
Quoting 1032. SFLWeatherman:

91L will be moving into the gulf stream soon and wind shear will go down too! 91L is heading straight for better conditions.

nws said that a few days ago, wens would be the best day for development,im hoping its headed north by then
Quoting 1033. CaribBoy:





Very surprised to see that the TW jumped so far north overnight. But looks like once again... the rain, heavy rain, will pass only 1 mile S of us, leaving us DRY :/


Bring it to PR as we need rain as lakes are going down. At least it will aliviate a little bit the drought we are going thru.
Quoting 1051. Tropicsweatherpr:



Bring it to PR as we need rain as lakes are going down. At least it will aliviate a little bit the drought we are going thru.


I'm confident that E PR and the Virgin Islands will get good rains this afternoon
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
820 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

NEC179-301330-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-140630T1330Z/
WAYNE NE-
820 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL
WAYNE COUNTY...

AT 819 AM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
OVER WINSIDE...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORFOLK...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WAYNE AROUND 830 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE 8
MILES SOUTH OF WAYNE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS DEVELOPING. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO
A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4211 9725 4227 9729 4232 9702 4212 9701
TIME...MOT...LOC 1319Z 271DEG 33KT 4216 9717

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

FOBERT
I think it just dis-
appeared
1055. ricderr
Although it has not been "officially declared," the weather seems to be so El-Nino-ish lately, especially in the Southeast US. Even if it is a weak one. Remember, this is just an observation ... Crow does not sound tasty! LoL!

if you look at the weekly ENSO 3.4 values.....they are close to meeting the criteria for an el nino.........while the recent rise was higher than predicted...this falling off of values was predicted....no need to give up on el nino just yet
1056. FOREX
Quoting 1054. forecaster1:

I think it just dis-
appeared


What??
1057. Patrap
Quoting 1045. Grothar:



Why can't they leave things alone?



Thats what the inquisition said.

: P
1058. Grothar
I was typing up a document and poof!


What??
1060. aquak9
Spaghetti plots and opinions please- 91L looks weak on vis, weak on IR, no convection really-
is anyone still on this bandwagon?
The only thing between 91L COC and Florida is the gulf stream. When it passes over it we should see the storms fire up over the COC.
91L sure has gone a lot further south than was estimated when compared to model solutions back on 20140628 12H early cycle forecast. Pesky & defiant little low.
1063. Patrap
1064. Patrap
1065. Grothar
Interesting model. It has 91L as a CAT 1 hurricane off of Long Island.

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Middle-upper
Mississippi Valley region today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Northern and central Illinois
Southern and eastern Iowa
Northern Missouri
Southern Wisconsin

* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Widespread large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, tornadoes
and swaths of wind damage are expected especially this afternoon
into tonight across much of the Corn Belt and Midwest. More
widely scattered severe storms will be possible across the
south-central Plains.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Edwards/Mosier.. 06/30/2014

Quoting 1037. MahFL:

Can anyone explain the extra orange lines over the system ?, even thought the shear has not changed much.



Those extra orange lines are how the upper air is moving. Note the arrows have that flowing in a clockwise direction. It's an anticyclone setting up over 91L. It helps vent, get a storm started & lowers shear.
1068. Patrap

Buoy Station 41010
NDBC

Location: 28.903N 78.464W

Date: Mon, 30 Jun 2014 13:20:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.93 in
Air Temperature: 80.1 F
Dew Point: 73.9 F
Water Temperature: 82.4 F
View Details Opens in new window - View History Opens in new window
Quoting 1061. rmbjoe1954:

The only thing between 91L COC and Florida is the gulf stream. When it passes over it we should see the storms fire up over the COC.


When can we start to see that occur?
Rain now moving into EC FL
1071. Grothar
COAMPS model

24 hours



120 hours

1072. DDR
Good morning
CaribBoy,i feel for you,maybe you'll get lucky later today,yesterday all the heavy stuff passed south of me until about 4pm we got a downpour worth 1 inch.
1074. ricderr
Spaghetti plots and opinions please- 91L looks weak on vis, weak on IR, no convection really-
is anyone still on this bandwagon?



ahhh morning aqua....you know you have entered the room of ultimate wishcasting.....lol.......from the talk saturday night....this was gonna be declared sunday morning...funny...but i don't see them around today.....my take....and once i get done playing about with el nino pages.....i'll post some info....91l by dipping as far south...and if it can avoid landfall....has the chance.....wee little as it might be....of making something out of itself
1075. Patrap
RGB loop

1076. Grothar
Global warming makes drought come on earlier, faster, and harder
A new study tries to separate natural and human influences on drought

A very recent study tries to do just this. Published in the Journal of Climate, authors Richard Seager and Martin Hoerling cleverly used climate models forced by sea surface temperatures to separate how much of the past century’s North American droughts have been caused by ocean temperatures, natural variability, and humans. What they found was expected (all three of these influence drought), but it's the details that are exciting. Furthermore, the methodology can be applied to other climate phenomena at other locations around the globe.

Link
1079. ncstorm
Being that I dont live in Florida along with millions of other people, I'm still watching 91L..


1080. GatorWX
Morning everyone. I see nothing has changed with 91 aside from its location. I see this talk of the gulfstream and lower shear. Look at the north and west sides of this system. It's bare. It's not likely going to blossom over the gulfstream. There's deep, warm water which it should benefit from, but the shear and dry air are the issues. I know it looks good on paper, thinking the shear is less nearer to FL, but if that were the case, there'd be convection nearer to FL. I'll say the same thing I did yesterday, it's got a day or more at least. I do anticipate this developing, eventually, but not until it completes the hook and begins a northerly heading. Until then, a naked swirl with meager random bursts of convection. Also, I wouldn't compare this to past seasons' struggling systems. It's a little early to make those analogies and this also isn't the typical June/early July storms we've had in recent years. Give it 24-36 hours. If convection hasn't established by then, I'd become a little more leery of development. It has a nice structure, so anything is possible. One more gripe. I heard people saying it became decoupled. Decoupled from what? It's always been a low level system. It has yet to truly build upwards much. It's not a decoupled system. It's a sheared system with dry air issues. I'll stick to my guns and say TS for OBX or the vicinity. For FL, rain. That's it. Likely not as much as some want to imagine, just an enhanced sea breeze pattern. That was a nice blowup last night over s and c FL. Wonder if we can do that again.




Oh and Pat, thanks for reminding us it's only June 30 and peak season is still more than two months away. We are anxious however. Lets all learn and think logically.
1081. Patrap
UTC 13:45 image

Quoting 1019. intampa:

well hopefully all this talk of 91l and florida rain will actually happen this time. we need rain on the west coast/tampa area. usually when the models/forecasts etc etc call for all this rain the opposite happens.
IT WONT
1083. GatorWX
This is just becoming unexciting for me. I really hoped it would have a better night than it did. Peninsular FL storms yesterday steal all its potential glory?

Quoting 1079. ncstorm:

Being that I dont live in Florida along with millions of other people, I'm still watching 91L..



FOR WHAT? nothing will happen but fizzle and track change every hour then poof
The pressure at buoy 41010 bottomed out at 1012 millibars last night, FWIW.
Quoting 1069. FLMermaid:



When can we start to see that occur?
check back in 10 days when they have a clue
1087. ncstorm
Quoting 1084. rutofthewild:

FOR WHAT? nothing will happen but fizzle and track change every hour then poof


Anyone know when school starts again for junior high in Florida?
1088. Patrap
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA IS SLOWLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE DRIFTING SOUTH. ALTHOUGH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
LOW IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
150 NM IN S SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTION IS LIMITED ELSEWHERE AROUND
THE LOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE ATLC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC.
1089. ncstorm
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 58m

Look very close, just north of the Bahamas... looks like center is better defined in low cloud swirl http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/flash -vis-short.html …
Radar estimated over 7 inches of rain had fallen in parts of Woodruff, Monroe, St. Francis, and Prairie Counties in eastern Arkansas, roughly halfway between Memphis and Little Rock. A whopping 10.36 inches of rain was measured in Little Dixie, Arkansas.

Memphis International Airport picked up 2.28 inches of rain in just one hour ending at 5:54 a.m. CDT Sunday. In total, Memphis picked up 5.87 inches of rain Sunday, all before 1 p.m.


Link
With the high now set up it will move further south then more west to over Fl... Either that or someone keeps moving the H's and L's around randomly on the surface maps... :)
1092. aquak9
Quoting 1087. ncstorm:



Anyone know when school starts again for junior high in Florida?

Not soon enough.

Big Fat Buddha in a Basket- I plussed ricderr. That by itself oughtta throw off the whole
universe.
1093. Patrap
Quoting 1072. DDR:

Good morning
CaribBoy,i feel for you,maybe you'll get lucky later today,yesterday all the heavy stuff passed south of me until about 4pm we got a downpour worth 1 inch.


Looks like islands from Martinique to Saba (including St Kitts) got good rains last night.

Hopefully our turn will come later this AM.

More than 200 millimetres of rain fell over a 48-hour period in parts of a region that already experienced a spring so wet many farmers did not have a chance to seed crops. The normal average rainfall for the entire month of June in the area is about 92 millimetres. A rainfall warning continued Sunday night and into Monday, with 20 to 40 millimetres expected.

At least 40 communities declared states of emergency in Saskatchewan and Manitoba by Sunday evening. With roads cut off and no local emergency services, at least three villages organized their own evacuations as homes were overwhelmed.


Link
1097. Grothar
28.6N 78.5W movement SSW speed 8mph
1098. Patrap
In the East Pac, TS Douglas peeks out His eye from the CDO.

1099. Patrap
Quoting 1097. Grothar:

28.6N 78.5W movement SSW speed 8mph


96 Miles every 12 hours so the extrapolated looks on target.

: P
Some northwesterly shear from Douglas is impeding 97E, but I think it's acquired enough organization to be declared a tropical storm (ASCAT sampled 50 mph winds). The SHIPS suggests that shear will decrease after tomorrow, and so this may have an opportunity to become better organized then.

1101. GatorWX
Quoting 1091. forecaster1:

With the high now set up it will move further south then more west to over Fl... Either that or someone keeps moving the H's and L's around randomly on the surface maps... :)





We should find this person! I think their name is Physics. I'm just kidding. It's all an ever evolving pattern though. Nothing stays the same except everything changes. I think Sammy Kershaw said that. I always liked it.
1102. Patrap

Station 41010
NDBC
Location: 28.903N 78.464W
Date: Mon, 30 Jun 2014 13:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (102°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.94 in and rising
Air Temperature: 80.2 F
Dew Point: 74.1 F
Water Temperature: 82.4 F
1103. Grothar
1104. Patrap
Some Building convection in the East and Ne semi circle noted on the UTC 13:55 image as the Sun Angle changes.




I actually have a dart board I throw the dart then I predict the darts location Based on a roll of the dice followed by a shot of whiskey and there you have it.
Quoting 1101. GatorWX:






We should find this person! I think their name is Physics. I'm just kidding. It's all an ever evolving pattern though. Nothing stays the same except everything changes. I think Sammy Kershaw said that. I always liked it.
1106. scott39
Goodmorning everyone, I declared 91L toast too soon yesterday.
Decent squall in the SE moving WNW... may bring a good thundershower later!

I hope so...

Did 91L suffer a dry air attack. Good spin but naked, almost.
1109. GatorWX
Quoting 1105. forecaster1:

I actually have a dart board I throw the dart then I predict the darts location Based on a roll of the dice followed by a shot of whiskey and there you have it.


Actually it was Tracy Lawrence. Oops..

"South moves north, North moves south
A star is born, a star burns out.
the only thing that stays the same is everything
changes, everything changes."

Pretty good song imo.
ECMWF still holding strong with the idea of a strong TS or Hurricane riding up the Eastern Seaboard.
Good morning bloggers!
On the Wunderground iphone app, how do you change the time to Est? I've looked all over and found no way to do so. 
Quoting 1110. CybrTeddy:

ECMWF still holding strong with the idea of a strong TS or Hurricane riding up the Eastern Seaboard.


Following the model closely for now. The ECMWF has suggested for several days that this would stay disorganized until it stalls and begins to make the turn northward (which should tomorrow into Wednesday).
1113. hydrus
Quoting 1101. GatorWX:






We should find this person! I think their name is Physics. I'm just kidding. It's all an ever evolving pattern though. Nothing stays the same except everything changes. I think Sammy Kershaw said that. I always liked it.


Look at that beast coming in off the Gulf of Alaska , those poor farmers in the Upper Midwest, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are about to get creamed again.

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014

Douglas has changed little in organization during the past 6 hours.
The cyclone has maintained a broad inner core with most of the
convective banding features being well removed from the center.
The current intensity has been held at 35 kt, which is in agreement
with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion estimate is 305/08 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Douglas is
expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours or so
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the
cyclone, which will result in a gradual decrease in Douglas'
forward speed. By late in the forecast period, the ridge is
expected to strengthen, which should turn the cyclone more westward
as it comes under the influence of moderate low-level trade wind
flow. This motion will bring Douglas over cooler waters, causing the
cyclone to gradually weaken. The official forecast track is a
little to the right of the previous advisory track, but only to
account for the more northward initial position. Otherwise, the new
forecast track closely follows the multi-model consensus TCVE.

Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak at less
than 10 kt for the next 3 days or so, the broad inner-core wind
field and sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 27C
argues for only slight intensification over the next couple of days.
After that, Douglas will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a
drier and more stable thermodynamic environment, which should
result in steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory and follows the consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 17.4N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 18.1N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.7N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 19.1N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 19.5N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.5N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.5N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Go big or go home, I suppose.
06z GFS slowly starting to get with the idea of a stronger storm recurving OTS. If this ends up missing land completely, the ECMWF could up being correct in 91L approaching hurricane status.


(that's 985mb, for those who can't see)
I'm starting to get the feeling that if this continues to remain weak that it will just linger offshore for days or even come into Florida. So far, the trough doesn't seem to be making much progress.
1119. Grothar
This should be TS Arthur by late this evening.

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014
1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 103.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.9N 104.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 104.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.9N 105.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 17.6N 106.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 103.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
I noticed that also. Seems like someone was speaking of a large vortex dipping into the western states and cooling things off.
Quoting 1114. ColoradoBob1:



Look at that beast coming in off the Gulf of Alaska , those poor farmers in the Upper Midwest, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are about to get creamed again.
Quoting 1117. CybrTeddy:

06z GFS slowly starting to get with the idea of a stronger storm recurving OTS. If this ends up missing land completely, the ECMWF could up being correct in 91L approaching hurricane status.

That or it might be beginning its transition to a strong extratropical storm as it links up with the trough.
1123. ncstorm


Click to enlarge
Quoting 1119. Grothar:

This should be TS Arthur by late this evening.




Need a better coverage and deeper convection in order to reach that status tonight.
Interesting...

Quoting 1119. Grothar:

This should be TS Arthur by late this evening.





Really?
That is kinda a jump. but I know you know your stuff on here. The storm does have a lot going for it. After TS status then what you think? Visible Sat looks decent, it is trying that is for sure.
At least there is model consensus around this time for development unlike 90L.

As of now we have
TS Douglas and Elida
And Invest 91L
1129. GatorWX
Quoting 1119. Grothar:

This should be TS Arthur by late this evening.




I'm thinking a bit longer (24+ hours), but I'll give you props if it does. I think it's moment will be riding the East Coast and then ots. ...time marches on..
Morning all.... one month down, 5 to go... lol...

I'm amused by the fact that while NAS recorded 0.0 inches of rain yesterday, it rained for more than an hour each time at two different locations where I was on New Providence yesterday - in the south from about 1:30 to 3:00 pm. and in the east from about 5 to 7 p.m. There was sufficient rain over the central hills of the island to cause heavy flooding on the East-West Highway between Blue Hill Rd. and East St.

It certainly seems like another rainy day is in store for us. It would also be cool if we got our depression # 1 before 8 p.m. tonight, but I'm not seriously convinced this invest will pull itself together that fast... still doesn't seem to be that much in the way of cyclonic rotation so far...

However, the air here today is certainly exuding that summery humidity I associate with tropical disturbances... lol ...
We only need 1.5 inch to catch up our rain deficit for june...

WE CAN DO IT!!!

Tropical Storm ELIDA RSS Feed icon Satellite | Buoys | NDFD | Storm Archive

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...

8:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 30 2014
Location: 17.3°N 103.9°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

winds 50 mph on ADVISORY NUMBER 1 that fast!

Seems to be indicating a transfer of energy into the mid-latitude low. Will be interesting to see how this looks, may not be your typical tropical storm.

Simulated IR Satellite
1136. FOREX
Looks like 91L might be coming stationary.
Do you think this going to be a threat to the Low Country?


Quoting 1124. cchsweatherman:



Need a better coverage and deeper convection in order to reach that status tonight.
Quoting 979. StormTrackerScott:

The strange thing is our basin is the only basin that keeps having these issues with tropical systems not being able to intensify.


This is not surprising actually (despite some people claiming wx_modification, but lets not feed the trolls here). The Atlantic Basin is one of the only basins where so many factors come into play in TC development. The W Pacific has the largest warm pool available to TCs, the E. Pacific is farther south than the Atlantic, in terms of development, so it doesn't have to worry about shear (slower easterlies, and desert isn't to it's immediate east.). So many things have to go right in order for an Atlantic Season to be active, while many of the other basins only need one or two things to be supportive of an active season. So much more land mass in the Atlantic Basin as well compared to other basins, and we all know land is not good for TC development.
Seems like Invest 91L continues to slowly move south-southwest with no signs of that changing anytime soon. Would not be surprised if it ends the day being off the coast a ways directly east of the Port St. Lucie area. With nearly all the convection off towards the south and west of the circulation center, Southeast Florida especially Palm Beach can expect very heavy rainfall later today through Wednesday.
1140. ricderr
Big Fat Buddha in a Basket- I plussed ricderr. That by itself oughtta throw off the whole
universe.



i knew my ears were burning for a reason...LMAO
1141. MahFL
Quoting 1089. ncstorm:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 58m

Look very close, just north of the Bahamas... looks like center is better defined in low cloud swirl http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/flash -vis-short.html …


Joe must think we are blind, the center is very obvious.
Quoting 1137. SCwannabee:

Do you think this going to be a threat to the Low Country?





Going to need to remind me what the Low Country is. lol
1143. ricderr
the CPC has issues their weekly ENSO update......another reason to not give those daily values so much credit......the weekly 3.4 anomaly value is.......drum roll please.....


0.5C


1144. Patrap


On other news so much for that spike
It fell right back down again

Recon leaves in 26 minutes.
1147. Patrap
91L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop

Click image for Loop

Quoting 1146. HurricaneAndre:

Recon leaves in 26 minutes.


Will be interesting to see the winds and pressures they find.
Any word on whether Recon is still flying in? Honestly, I would be surprised if they did. But then again... what do I know?
1150. aquak9
Quoting 1146. HurricaneAndre:

Recon leaves in 26 minutes.

ReCOON
1151. LargoFl
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains minimal in association with
a low pressure area located about 140 miles east-northeast of
Melbourne, Florida. However, surface pressures are falling, and
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next few days. A tropical depression is
likely to form by mid-week while the system moves slowly
southwestward and thens turns northward and northeastward near the
southeastern United States coast. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting 1147. Patrap:

91L Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop

Click image for Loop




Trying really hard to wrap at least some convection; albeit meager, around the north side.
1153. LargoFl
Quoting 1139. cchsweatherman:

Seems like Invest 91L continues to slowly move south-southwest with no signs of that changing anytime soon. Would not be surprised if it ends the day being off the coast a ways directly east of the Port St. Lucie area. With nearly all the convection off towards the south and west of the circulation center, Southeast Florida especially Palm Beach can expect very heavy rainfall later today through Wednesday.
my guess is localized flooding will be the main threat for florida with this storm
Is that another naked swirl I see?
Nam isn't too impressed with 91L. It's still not much of a system when it brushes North Carolina's Outerbanks.
Quoting 1153. LargoFl:

my guess is localized flooding will be the main threat for florida with this storm


Pretty much; maybe a little wind on the immediate coast. Considering the rainfall as of late though, this could cause some flooding issues.

Quoting 1154. CycloneOz:

Is that another naked swirl I see?


Why yes it is. Isn't it pretty? lol
1157. LargoFl
stay alert south florida today............................................. ...................AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1102 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

.UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EMANATING FROM
THE CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. UPDATED POPS...WEATHER...AND
QPF GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR THE LATEST TRENDING. IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY...THE 12Z SOUNDING TODAY SHOWED A MUCH DEEPER COLUMN OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A PWAT OF 1.94 DUE MAINLY TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE QUITE EXTENSIVE. UPDATE
SENT.

&&
As far as "recent" July storms go...DENNIS was a strong one.
1159. aquak9
For those of you too young to remember Recoon-

1160. LargoFl
6Z GFS still has the Low coming ashore into florida....stay alert east coast florida............................
Quoting 1143. ricderr:

the CPC has issues their weekly ENSO update......another reason to not give those daily values so much credit......the weekly 3.4 anomaly value is.......drum roll please.....


0.5C





CPC has not released their weekly update as is still last Mondays update.

Link
1162. FOREX
Looks like a slight wobble to the northwest with 91L. Looks like the beginning of the turn might be taking place.
Quoting 1157. LargoFl:

stay alert south florida today............................................. ...................AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1102 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

.UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EMANATING FROM
THE CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. UPDATED POPS...WEATHER...AND
QPF GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR THE LATEST TRENDING. IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY...THE 12Z SOUNDING TODAY SHOWED A MUCH DEEPER COLUMN OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A PWAT OF 1.94 DUE MAINLY TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE QUITE EXTENSIVE. UPDATE
SENT.

&&



Pretty much what I expected. Wouldn't be surprised to see the rain chances bumped up to 100% across Southeast Florida.
1164. ricderr
CPC has not released their weekly update as is still last Mondays update.

Link



says june 30th on their cover page
1165. LargoFl
6Z GFS has it going north up the coastline,maybe a strong tropical storm................................
Quoting LargoFl:
stay alert south florida today............................................. ...................AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1102 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

.UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EMANATING FROM
THE CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. UPDATED POPS...WEATHER...AND
QPF GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR THE LATEST TRENDING. IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY...THE 12Z SOUNDING TODAY SHOWED A MUCH DEEPER COLUMN OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A PWAT OF 1.94 DUE MAINLY TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE QUITE EXTENSIVE. UPDATE
SENT.

&&


Having trouble loading a more recent run, but earlier this morning the HRRR was forecasting a lot of T storm activity for Southern Florida this evening.
Quoting 1145. wunderkidcayman:

On other news so much for that spike
It fell right back down again




LOL xD Nice!
Quoting 1164. ricderr:

CPC has not released their weekly update as is still last Mondays update.

Link



says june 30th on their cover page


Link?
Quoting 1023. CaicosRetiredSailor:

Via FB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20140630_pa_FiveDayO utlookGraphic.pdf or watch the video: http://youtu.be/lSTAGhQsZk8

Beginning at 2 p.m. EDT July 1st, NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) will introduce an experimental five-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO) to accompany its text Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO).
It will be available for both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins and indicate the formation potential of current and future disturbances during the next five days. Shaded areas will represent the potential tropical cyclone formation areas, color-coded by development likelihood.
Also effective at 2 p.m. EDT July 1st, the 48-hour GTWO will no longer indicate the locations of disturbances by encircling them. Instead, for consistency with the new five-day graphic, locations of current disturbances will be marked with an "X".

....get ready for the complaints about "change"
This sounds pretty cool, actually....

Quoting 1033. CaribBoy:

img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://www.island-computer.com/cams/corossol. jpg">

img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/vis.jpg" >

Very surprised to see that the TW jumped so far north overnight. But looks like once again... the rain, heavy rain, will pass only 1 mile S of us, leaving us DRY :/
BUT!!! I can see the clouds in the pic!!!!!! I can't believe you won't get any rain.... :o/

Quoting 1074. ricderr:

Spaghetti plots and opinions please- 91L looks weak on vis, weak on IR, no convection really-
is anyone still on this bandwagon?



ahhh morning aqua....you know you have entered the room of ultimate wishcasting.....lol.......from the talk saturday night....this was gonna be declared sunday morning...funny...but i don't see them around today.....my take....and once i get done playing about with el nino pages.....i'll post some info....91l by dipping as far south...and if it can avoid landfall....has the chance.....wee little as it might be....of making something out of itself
Before tomorrow? Not feeling it.... and we have been getting the wx others [read FL] have not so far.

1170. ricderr
For those of you too young to remember Recoon-


in other words....grothar = adam....

aqua = eve.....

ta da da boom
Decent thundershower...
1172. LargoFl
Quoting 1163. cchsweatherman:



Pretty much what I expected. Wouldn't be surprised to see the rain chances bumped up to 100% across Southeast Florida.
yes i do hope those early predictions scott made a few days ago of 8-10 inches doesnt come true, alot of flat land alnong those east coast cities.
1173. ricderr
Before tomorrow? Not feeling it.... and we have been getting the wx others [read FL] have not so far.



where did i say before tomorrow?........i didn't even hint at that......
Naked swirls always look pretty on my GOES East Hurricane Sector Animations!
Local met says that West Central Florida likely will see dry weather because of this system since the west side of a storm is dryer.

Does that change if the shear coming from the east/north east side of the storm blows the moisture over top of us?

Just curious, I saw what happened just south of the tampa bay area last night. wondering what is stopping that from happening again today.

Thanks, love this blog and all the conversation that goes on.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1177. LargoFl
wow some of these tracks take it all the way over to the west coast then northward..we need to stay alert...
As long as it stays off the coast it will develop its half dead already if it hits the coast of Florida it's done for


Quoting 1162. FOREX:

Looks like a slight wobble to the northwest with 91L. Looks like the beginning of the turn might be taking place.
1179. GatorWX
Quoting 1158. CycloneOz:

As far as "recent" July storms go...DENNIS was a strong one.


Ha! Debbie was fairly impressive for a TS. I remember seeing pics from Siesta Key (Sarasota) where entire swimming pools were full of sand from the beaches. It was certainly the worst that area had seen since Gabrielle ('03). Dennis was interesting though. I remember going out to the beach here (Englewood) at 0300 and watching surge come up over the key when the storm was still 100+ miles offshore in the GOM. I was impressed at the intensity of it. Also, Dennis had the best surf I've ever seen here. Oh, and Ivan! Dennis's was cleanest though.
Quoting 1146. HurricaneAndre:

Recon leaves in 26 minutes.

Last I checked RECON rescheduled to afternoon flight

Quoting 1162. FOREX:

Looks like a slight wobble to the northwest with 91L. Looks like the beginning of the turn might be taking place.

Rapid scan show absolutely no wobble what so ever
Even on the standard GOES EAST floater show no wobble
1181. ncstorm
6z GFDL









Well it was fun to imagine an actual rainy season for a while.

Quoting 1159. aquak9:

For those of you too young to remember Recoon-


LOL.... aaand ... he's BACK!!!

I'm outta here, but I gotta say 91L still looks too much like a hybrid right now to convince me we'll see NS status before the month changes. If u can show me more clouds over the CoC at 5 p.m. my time I may be willing to be convinced the other way, but right I'd say tomorrow is a better bet... or even Wednesday.

But we shall see.... L8r!
1147. Patrap
Oh, boy...looks like clouds finally wrapping up around the center. Still making slow movement towards ME!
Quoting 1179. GatorWX:



Ha! Debbie was fairly impressive for a TS. I remember seeing pics from Siesta Key (Sarasota) where entire swimming pools were full of sand from the beaches. It was certainly the worst that area had seen since Gabrielle ('03). Dennis was interesting though. I remember going out to the beach here (Englewood) at 0300 and watching surge come up over the key when the storm was still 100+ miles offshore in the GOM. I was impressed at the intensity of it. Also, Dennis had the best surf I've ever seen here. Oh, and Ivan! Dennis's was cleanest though.


I chased Debby and got flooded in quite a bit. I had to dodge 3 water moccasins in a rapidly moving flood. I was live broadcasting when that bit of drama happened, but the signal was too weak to get out.

I chased Dennis, too and have a video of the landfall up on YouTube. My favorite Dennis memory was from 2 AM on July 10th. I was sitting outside on my brother Doug's deck. I heard what sounded like sortie after sortie of large aircraft taking off in the distance, but no flights were leaving at that hour in Pensacola, FL.

What I was hearing was the sound of an advancing major hurricane bouncing off the atmosphere. It was EPIC!
1186. MahFL
Quoting 1160. LargoFl:

6Z GFS still has the Low coming ashore into florida....stay alert east coast florida...


Alert for what ?.....a few thunderstorms ?...hardly need alerting Floridians for that.
Boring weather is back :-(
Quoting 1186. MahFL:



Alert for what ?.....a few thunderstorms ?...hardly need alerting Floridians for that.
Quoting 1186. MahFL:



Alert for what ?.....a few thunderstorms ?...hardly need alerting Floridians for that.
tottaly agree