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91L develops a closed circulation; monsoon floods in India kill over 250

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:06 PM GMT on October 06, 2009

A tropical wave (91L) near 17N, 52W, about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to generate considerable heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under high wind shear, 20 - 25 knots, and is over warm waters, 29°C. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no closed circulation, and top winds of 30 mph. However, satellite loops show that 91L now has a closed surface circulation, though strong upper-level winds out of the west are keeping the heavy thunderstorm activity confined to the east side of the center. Since there is not much dry air to the storm's west, the shear will not have as great a negative impact as we've seen in similar high-shear situations this year.

None of the computer models develop the wave, and they show moderate to high wind shear affecting 91L over the next 2 - 3 days. The storm will be steered northwest for the next 2 - 3 days by a trough of low pressure passing to the north. The northern Lesser Antilles may see some heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the southern portion of 91L on Thursday and Friday. By Friday, the trough will have passed far to the east, and high pressure will build in, which may force 91L to the southwest into the Caribbean, according to some model projections. Wind shear is expected to fall to the low to moderate range 3 - 5 days from now. If 91L holds together for the next 2 - 3 days and avoids interaction with the high mountains of Hispaniola late this week, the storm could be trouble. NHC is currently giving 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, and the Hurricane Hunters are not on call to fly the storm. I think the storm has more potential to develop than NHC does, and put the odds of development over the next two days at medium (30 - 50%).


Figure 2. latest images of Invest 91L.

Pacific typhoons
In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma circled back and has struck the northwest corner of the Philippines' Luzon island today. Parma dumped over sixteen inches of rain on northern Luzon in its first pass over the island last weekend, and is expected to dump another 1 - 2 inches today.

Typhoon Melor has weakened to a Category 3 typhoon south of Japan, and is expected to hit Japan Thursday morning as a Category 2 storm. Melor is expected to track near or over Tokyo as a tropical storm on Thursday afternoon.

Monsoon floods in India kill 269
India's monsoon officially ended on October 1, but an unusually slow-to-depart monsoon dumped unprecedented rains in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh states in southern India over the past week, generating massive flooding that has killed at least 269 people and left 2.5 million homeless. Rainfall last Thursday in the city of Karwar exceeded .5 meters (19 inches) in a single day. Rain from the deluge ran off into the Krishna River in Andhra Pradash state, where the local information minister stated, "This is known as PMF or possible maximum flood, which happens once in 10,000 years".

Disastrous monsoon floods are common in India and surrounding nations, and the annual death toll from monsoon floods exceeds 1,000 in India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan. Over 2,000 people died last year in monsoon floods in South Asia. The greater concern is when the monsoon rains fail, as sometimes happens during El Niño years. This year's El Niño led to substantial drought over much of India, and the 2009 Indian Monsoon is among the five worst monsoons in the recorded history (since 1871). The five worst monsoons along with the rainfall deficits for India have been:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -23%

Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India. The drought of 1965 - 1967 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass starvation in India. While there are concerns about food shortages due to the summer drought, and now the October monsoon floods, the days of mass starvation in India due to drought and flood are past, thankfully.

Climate change poses a significant challenge to India, as more intense droughts and greater floods are likely to occur in India as the climate warms. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood just completed a trip to India, and wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change.


Figure 2. Rainfall this year in India has been 23% below average, the 5th worst monsoon since 1871. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.

A plug for Portlight
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity has been doing some great work this past week, and delivered a truck full of relief supplies over the weekend to victims of the Atlanta, GA floods. Portlight is also preparing a shipment of supplies for disabled people to the tsunami victims of Samoa. If you haven't stopped by their blog lately, take a look at the latest stories and photos.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. xcool


Quoting IKE:


OMG...it was yellow at the 2 pm TWO? Went to a TS within a couple of hours...LMAO.


This cut and paste from the discussion will help to explain it all; I think. LOL

"THE FORMATION OF HENRI ILLUSTRATES HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO ANTICIPATE
THE CHANGES IN CONVECTION THAT DISTINGUISH STRONG TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES FROM WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONES...PARTICULARLY WHEN
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.
"
Any body from LA in here? Yall ready for them Gators on Sunday? Hope yall send them back to Gainsville with there tails between there legs! Looks like it will be great weather in Baton Rouge Saturday evening...
Whole season was crazy, Shear, El Nino, equals lame season
the circles are an experimental thing with NHC. Plus each NHC forecaster has their own interpretation.
506. IKE
Looking at the MJO charts, there may be a couple of more named systems.....




Quoting Hurricane009:
What do you think about Henri??? Do you believe it will Die????????


Shear will be a problem over the next couple of days but don't hold your breath. The models have been wrong up to now, THEY HAVE NOT VERIFY. The models are consistent with keep shear low beyond 3 days, while agree with the NHC through 3 days, they will be tracking this on the weekend.
Looking at the current shear map, Henri (AHN-REE) should e dead in less than 36 hours because Henri (AHN-REE) is going to run into shear of 30 to 50 knots. So I guess I do agree with the NHC at the moment.
gorthar were not slow btw u posted a forecast advisory me and miamihurricanes posted the full one
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Me and Btwntx08 both posted thye complete advisory, if you have both os us on ignore it is a different story, buddy.

Yeah, that was my scrolling-through-3-(or-more)-copies-of-the-one-thing-everyone-here-knows-exactly-where-to-get response.
NHC nearly missed Grace when it was 90L, they didn't even mention it when it looked like a Hurricane, and had very, remarkably poor handling of Henri before it formed, Dr. Masters called it right IMO. They're the experts though, I'm not. Just making an observation..

Claudette, Grace, Henri were all handled pretty poorly when they were invests.
I think there is a possibility that it could demish to a LOW by Thurs, but, we all know what a remnant Low can do in the Carribean in October.
Quoting tornadodude:


me either, I'm not sure what has happened this year


they're dealing with all these marginal systems that are hard to predict and open to a lot of subjective interpretation....

HURRICANE HENRI'S VISIT

Henri: Hey Florida! Can I come for a visit?
Florida: NOOOO!!!!!!!
Henri: Please???
Henri: Wait, why am i asking?
Henri: I think i will become very strong and muscular before I come.
Florida: PLEASE!!! DONT!!!!
Henri: And i think Tropical Storm Ida will be coming in two weeks.
Florida: NNNNNNOOOOOOO!!!!!!! :(

END!
515. IKE
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
NHC nearly missed Grace when it was 90L, they didn't even mention it when it looked like a Hurricane, and had very, remarkably poor handling of Henri before it formed, Dr. Masters called it right IMO. They're the experts though, I'm not. Just making an observation..

Claudette, Grace, Henri were all handled pretty poorly when they were invests.


I don't remember there being this much of an issue in years past.
Quoting xcool:
n.h.c Need to Wake Up !

They are wide awake, I assure you.
Henri named, ok lets see where I want to put these Christmas lights at here in another month
Looks like my prediction of 11 named storms might come true at this rate! Nice upward MJO too kicking in.. already an active October.
Bloggers were here Saturday, Grace born Sunday and was found to be a tropical storm earlier than the 1st advisory, they admit it.

Yellow at 2, bloggers outrage, I myself thought it was to be orange and close to TD, now this?

2009 has been a difficult year even for me, so I have be sympathetic with the NHC.
Quoting Weather456:


Shear will be a problem over the next couple of days but don't hold your breath. The models have been wrong up to now, THEY HAVE NOT VERIFY. The models are consistent with keep shear low beyond 3 days, while agree with the NHC through 3 days, they will be tracking this on the weekend.


I'm gonna take the middle road here. I believe Henri will degenerate into a remnant low and then regenerate into Henri in the caribbiean.
Henri still headed at 280?
Quoting rwdobson:


they're dealing with all these marginal systems that are hard to predict and open to a lot of subjective interpretation....


true, very tricky year for forecasting. plenty of troughs, a supposed weak el nino, this makes for tough forecasting
Quoting Weather456:
The NHC turned this yellow at 2PM, now Henri. Is it me or I'm crazy, lol
Embarrassing , to say the least. Now what's up with their projected track, with the NHC previous record, for this storm, and 'GRace,,,,,,,,,,,humm ,,don't know.
Bonjour Henri... and according to NHC see you later Henri by Friday
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
NHC nearly missed Grace when it was 90L, they didn't even mention it when it looked like a Hurricane, and had very, remarkably poor handling of Henri before it formed, Dr. Masters called it right IMO. They're the experts though, I'm not. Just making an observation..

Claudette, Grace, Henri were all handled pretty poorly when they were invests.

They were handled just fine in the contexts of when a system develops the capacity to threaten anyone or anything. What about that isn't good enough for you? <---------Rhetorical!
Grace hitting UK now looks better than Henri lol
I respect the NHC, but they are falling apart.....fast.
All we need now is for Henri to make a hard WSW turn into the Caribbean and that will set the cat amongst the pigeons !
Another dead storm,here today POOF tomorrow!!Time to move on too next storm.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah, that was my scrolling-through-3-(or-more)-copies-of-the-one-thing-everyone-here-knows-exactly-where-to-get response.
lol, my apologies, sir.
2009: Expect the unexpected.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Grace hitting UK now looks better than Henri lol


A tropical storm is a tropical storm, no matter where it forms, how it forms or how it looks. It's the objective data not subjective data that tropical forecasting should be based on.
Quoting rwdobson:


they're dealing with all these marginal systems that are hard to predict and open to a lot of subjective interpretation....

Ummm, you better watch it on the levity. I have seen ugly things happen in here to the calm and collected.
Quoting kmanislander:
2009: Expect the unexpected.


Tropical Meteorology: Expect the unexpected.
I don't see where NHC has done anything wrong on Henri. Naked swirl w/o convection and the high shear is reasonable criteria for keeping it yellow. Then, when the convection fired over the center, no choice in the matter at that point.

Certainly can be argued that maybe it should have been orange at 2pm, but not that big a difference, really.
That is correct, you stuck to what you know, not what the NHC thinks and you have been right up to this point. Keep it up.
Bloggers now in wonder
2 hours ago, just thunder
NHC should update sooner
So we don't lose a schooner
NHC! One day, to wait will be a blunder!!!!
538. IKE
Quoting Hurricane009:
I respect the NHC, but they are falling apart.....fast.


I do wonder how they would handle a year like 2005?
Quoting atmoaggie:

They were handled just fine in the contexts of when a system develops the capacity to threaten anyone or anything. What about that isn't good enough for you? <---------Rhetorical!


But if it meets the qualifications, it deserves to be named no matter were it is, and if it isn't a threat to land so what, lets observe. They even admited they didn't expect it, and Claudette too.. very unexpected.
Lets call Bill Read and see what the hell is going on out there
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ummm, you better watch it on the levity. I have seen ugly things happen in here to the calm and collected.


I was chewed and spit out once when I though the NHC did a great job on Katrina. I mean the 5 day cone did have LA in it.

Although I am surprised on the formation of Henri i'm not gonna put my panties in a bunch because of it.
2009 CONUS season: OVER
Europe has better chance of getting hit now than the CONUS
544. xcool




Poeple need to understand that yellow at 2PM meant a low chance for a tropical depression in 48 hrs - 2PM Thursday. 48 hrs is a very large temporal span when we taking about tropics here. Who believed that it would of taken Henri to develop that long. 91L had a naked swirl yes but it actually acquired something it did not had 24 hrs ago which implies some development took place.
Quoting Hurricane009:
I respect the NHC, but they are falling apart.....fast.


the times like this, are the exact reason I started following this blog to learn. b/c being in the cone, out of the cone, in the cone, out of the cone just bites.
Quoting Weather456:


A tropical storm is a tropical storm, no matter where it forms, how it forms or how it looks. It's the objective data not subjective data that tropical forecasting should be based on.


Generally speaking that is true but in this instance there seems to have been more subjectivity than one might expect. For instance, the discussion refers to the Ascat pass from earlier today. That pass did NOT show a closed low yet it forms part of the " objective " reasoning for the call to upgrade.
Henri will disapate by Thursday. However, as it approaches the CONUS it will start to get "bailed out". Watch and see. It's on page 23,567 of the stimulus bill. 3rd paragraph from the top.
am out till later this evening later all
Quoting iluvjess:
Henri will disapate by Thursday. However, as it approaches the CONUS it will start to get "bailed out". Watch and see. It's on page 23,567 of the stimulus bill. 3rd paragraph from the top.


Ha! Great post! :D
Quoting kmanislander:


Generally speaking that is true but in this instance there seems to have been more subjectivity than one might expect. For instance, the discussion refers to the Ascat pass from earlier today. That pass did NOT show a closed low yet it forms part of the " objective " reasoning for the call to upgrade.


That is true that some subjective data is involved, I have to admit, however visible images was also invlove.
As fast as Henri has formed, it will probably die just as fast.... its been that kind of year
Quoting IKE:


I do wonder how they would handle a year like 2005?


Noooooo! my f5 button couldnt handle it. LOL :P
545. Weather456 - True, but don't think 30% is necessarily a bad call with the shear level.

And, yes, I did forgot about the 48hrs when I posted. ;)
Quoting Seastep:
I don't see where NHC has done anything wrong on Henri. Naked swirl w/o convection and the high shear is reasonable criteria for keeping it yellow. Then, when the convection fired over the center, no choice in the matter at that point.

Certainly can be argued that maybe it should have been orange at 2pm, but not that big a difference, really.

I don't see what the big deal is when they said "0 to 30% chance of TC development in the next 48 hours" and it happened when pre-Henri had an open-wave appearance at the most recently available AScat pass. 0 to 30% and it happened. So?

What did you guys that are about to open up your own hurricane center expect them to do with one-sided convection and an open wave as per AScat?

One might say you have a 20% chance of rain today (the definition of NWS rain chances aside) and guess what, it rained somewhere. So what? Is your local NWS met a moron because one town in a WFO area got rain on a day with a 20% chance? No.
I'm going to laugh when a storm forms in the Carribean and hits the Gulf Coast for those saying the season is over for the conus. Seriously, stop the downcasting, you're going nowhere with it.
Systems that skipped depression stage this year

Danny
Erika
Grace
Henri

4/8 of systems

Have not remembered a year like this.
"A tropical storm is a tropical storm,
no matter where it [did] form."
456...you nailed another one
from your island in the sun.
Still...to form so fast is not the norm!!!!
Quoting atmoaggie:

I don't see what the big deal is when they said "0 to 30% chance of TC development in the next 48 hours" and it happened when pre-Henri had an open-wave appearance at the most recently available QuikScat pass. 0 to 30% and it happened. So?

What did you guys that are about to open up your own hurricane center expect them to do with one-sided convection and an open wave as per QuikScat?

One might say you have a 20% chance of rain today (the definition of NWS rain chances aside) and guess what, it rained somewhere. So what? Is your local NWS met a moron because one town in a WFO area got rain on a day with a 20% chance? No.


I think you missed a point there, that the circulation for what is now Henri was well-defined and closed at the 2pm TWO; based on the continuity that the NHC uses on many systems, this should have never been downgraded to a low chance of development.
I'm gonna give Henri life for 2 more days after the NHC dissipates it. We've been getting some fighters this year despite the shear.
the poems are annoying, please cut them out
1030-1040mb high coming down the plains end of week, aint no storm gonna hit the CONUS, AND gonna sweep out the heat pontential once and for all with this next front. CONUS season is over
Quoting atmoaggie:

I don't see what the big deal is when they said "0 to 30% chance of TC development in the next 48 hours" and it happened when pre-Henri had an open-wave appearance at the most recently available QuikScat pass. 0 to 30% and it happened. So?

What did you guys that are about to open up your own hurricane center expect them to do with one-sided convection and an open wave as per QuikScat?

One might say you have a 20% chance of rain today (the definition of NWS rain chances aside) and guess what, it rained somewhere. So what? Is your local NWS met a moron because one town in a WFO area got rain on a day with a 20% chance? No.


I think you misunderstood me. I didn't have a problem with the yellow at all. I think the progression was very reasonable.

The orange comment was just that, had they done that, I wouldn't have found that unreasonable either. I think it was right around that 30% range, give or take.
They should but 456 in the NHC, Haha.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


But if it meets the qualifications, it deserves to be named no matter were it is, and if it isn't a threat to land so what, lets observe. They even admited they didn't expect it, and Claudette too.. very unexpected.

I didn't say a thing about land. I said "a threat to anyone or anything".

A tiny swirl of 30 knot wind is no threat to shipping...they either have a met service, their own mets, or just don't care about a 30 knot tiny pre-TS (nonthreat).
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
the poems are annoying, please cut them out


c'mon, give him a break, I think they are creative and amusing
This October front is the one that is gonna sweep out the tropics back to Africa on a train ride
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
the poems are annoying, please cut them out


Whats annoying is the debate over the accuracy of the NHC. Let it go... Look forwards.
Quoting Weather456:
Systems that skipped depression stage this year

Danny
Erika
Grace
Henri

4/8 of systems

Have not remembered a year like this.


Invest is the new depression in 09

Quoting RitaEvac:
1030-1040mb high coming down the plains end of week, aint no storm gonna hit the CONUS, AND gonna sweep out the heat pontential once and for all with this next front. CONUS season is over


Don't be so confident, I think you and tacoman would be great friends btw :)
Quoting tornadodude:


c'mon, give him a break, I think they are creative and amusing
did you read my story?
Quoting reedzone:
I'm gonna give Henri life for 2 more days after the NHC dissipates it. We've been getting some fighters this year despite the shear.


Reedzone will pull Henri's plugs
48 hours after those NHC lugs
Hmmmm? I wonder
So fast from storm to thunder?
(/me opens beer, chugs, then shrugs....)
Quoting Weather456:
Systems that skipped depression stage this year

Danny
Erika
Grace
Henri

4/8 of systems

Have not remembered a year like this.


It happened a lot in 2007 too if I remember.
Polar Express coming down the Pike, Freight Train Express back to the tropics with Santa Claus aboard... lol
Quoting reedzone:
I'm going to laugh when a storm forms in the Carribean and hits the Gulf Coast for those saying the season is over for the conus. Seriously, stop the downcasting, you're going nowhere with it.


I wont be laughing
Quoting Hurricane009:
did you read my story?


yeah, it was interesting, but you made it seem like Henri was going to hit florida as a strong storm, you know?
The entertaining irony of all of this is that an armchair wannabe forecaster blogging on this site will, at some point in time , be proven right in his call on a system.

Over the long haul though the NHC does a tremendous job IMO
Post season analysis is going to one heck of a party.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I think you missed a point there, that the circulation for what is now Henri was well-defined and closed at the 2pm TWO; based on the continuity that the NHC uses on many systems, this should have never been downgraded to a low chance of development.

So if they took a vote, averaged it out, and decided on a 32% chance and gave you an orange, that is better than a 28% and a yellow?
Quoting Seastep:


I think you misunderstood me. I didn't have a problem with the yellow at all. I think the progression was very reasonable.

The orange comment was just that, had they done that, I wouldn't have found that unreasonable either. I think it was right around that 30% range, give or take.

Yeah, I know. Nearly all of that was directed at those that think the nhc is falling apart, lost it's marbles, has come down with a senility flu, or whatever because they didn't give as all something besides a low chance in advance of Herni putting it together.
Enough. Pointless banter.
Quoting duajones78413:


I wont be laughing


It's never funny when it happens, but it's amusing when the downcasters are once again proven wrong. That's why I would be laughing!
581. SLU
Quoting Weather456:
Poeple need to understand that yellow at 2PM meant a low chance for a tropical depression in 48 hrs - 2PM Thursday. 48 hrs is a very large temporal span when we taking about tropics here. Who believed that it would of taken Henri to develop that long. 91L had a naked swirl yes but it actually acquired something it did not had 24 hrs ago which implies some development took place.



Well, well, well ......

I had lost a lot of faith in the NHC this season with their reluctance to named so many systems and the last 2 or 3 days have just further confirmed that this year is pretty much the worst year i've witnessed as far as the NHC is concerned since I started following tropical cyclones over the net in May 2000.

Yellow at 2 is just totally perplexing given the convection wrapping on the northern side. Also the circulation had already closed off and the ASCAT and QUIKSCAT passes since morning showed winds of near tropical storm force. That shows that there's a temporary relaxation of the wind shear and improving conditions. I doubt it would have been yellow at 2 had it been closer to the mainland ... huh?
Quoting reedzone:
I'm gonna give Henri life for 2 more days after the NHC dissipates it. We've been getting some fighters this year despite the shear.

Good point. We have Ana and Danny for great examples.
just my 2 cents,

CIMSS is messed up..still. And I seem to remember reading in the blog that the quickscat equipment was on its last leg. It possible that the NHC is having technical difficulties off and on all year. I don’t know if they use these or not.

The thing that confuses me is they say that there was Migration of deep convention over henri's coc. I believe isn’t quit right cause it did get blown in; it blew up.

So Im gonna say jury is out on NHC. Lets see if they can pull it together when it matters..
:)
Quoting Weather456:
Post season analysis is going to one heck of a party.


We could have 3 or 4 more storms in post season analysis, also Grace could very well be upgraded to a hurricane as well

Strong MJO pulse coming tells me this season isnt over.

Either way I just think it is really pointless for people to come on here and in every post they make they keep drilling it into our skulls that they feel the season is over. Who knows maybe Henri is the last named storm of 2009, but it really makes no sense to just yell out that we should be looking at 2010 already and that we are wasting our time the rest of the season; there is no point to it and it doesn't make sense

First it was the season is over for 2009, now we have had 2 named storms in October and its season is over for the CONUS

Whats next? Season is over for Brownsville, Texas? lol
I'll be interested to see the models later.

But for now, I guess we'll look at the one that forecasted the development (thanks iceman).

CMC calls for Henri to pull a loop and then still head west just north of PR.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009100612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


We could have 3 or 4 more storms in post season analysis, also Grace could very well be upgraded to a hurricane as well

Strong MJO pulse coming tells me this season isnt over.

Either way I just think it is really pointless for people to come on here and in every post they make they keep drilling it into our skulls that they feel the season is over. Who knows maybe Henri is the last named storm of 2009, but it really makes no sense to just yell out that we should be looking at 2010 already and that we are wasting our time the rest of the season; there is no point to it and it doesn't make sense

First it was the season is over for 2009, now we have had 2 named storms in October and its season is over for the CONUS

Whats next? Season is over for Brownsville, Texas? lol


Season has been over for TX since the 24th of September
Quoting SLU:



Well, well, well ......

I had lost a lot of faith in the NHC this season with their reluctance to named so many systems and the last 2 or 3 days have just further confirmed that this year is pretty much the worst year i've witnessed as far as the NHC is concerned since I started following tropical cyclones over the net in May 2000.

Yellow at 2 is just totally perplexing given the convection wrapping on the northern side. Also the circulation had already closed off and the ASCAT and QUIKSCAT passes since morning showed winds of near tropical storm force. That shows that there's a temporary relaxation of the wind shear and improving conditions. I doubt it would have been yellow at 2 had it been closer to the mainland ... huh?


That was the point I was trying to make to aggie earlier. NHC loves to use continuity; which is why it was perplexing as to why they lowered the chances
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 OCT 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 17:45:39 N Lon : 53:50:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.5 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -4.7C Cloud Region Temp : -30.5C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.48 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 17:09:35 N Lon: 53:02:24 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
Quoting Weather456:
Post season analysis is going to one heck of a party.

To be a fly on the wall...
Another thing, the NHC is the official yes, but persons here have a right to express their differences of opinion. They have done tremendously good over the past years especially the difficult years of 2004, 2005 and 2008. However, there is something different about them this year, and I have been following them for 11 years now so I can detect some level of change.
From Oklahoma to the Carolinas, get your heater ready
Oh sorry let me rephrase

Whats next?

Season is over for ONLY Brownsville, Texas?
Quoting RitaEvac:
1030-1040mb high coming down the plains end of week, aint no storm gonna hit the CONUS, AND gonna sweep out the heat pontential once and for all with this next front. CONUS season is over
That is a very weak high though, I personally think Henri will be dead in 3 days top, but it is still fun to watch, imo.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Season has been over for TX since the 24th of September


You sure about that?
ok I'm out, will be back on late tonight, too much craziness on here right now :P

take care, and behave ;)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


We could have 3 or 4 more storms in post season analysis, also Grace could very well be upgraded to a hurricane as well

Strong MJO pulse coming tells me this season isnt over.

Either way I just think it is really pointless for people to come on here and in every post they make they keep drilling it into our skulls that they feel the season is over. Who knows maybe Henri is the last named storm of 2009, but it really makes no sense to just yell out that we should be looking at 2010 already and that we are wasting our time the rest of the season; there is no point to it and it doesn't make sense

First it was the season is over for 2009, now we have had 2 named storms in October and its season is over for the CONUS

Whats next? Season is over for Brownsville, Texas? lol

I know there was 90L is May and the Low that hit NJ, but what were the others.
Quoting duajones78413:


You sure about that?


DEADLY sure
Quoting duajones78413:


You sure about that?


That is my point there is no point in arguing with that logic, because they will continue to distort their answers and come up with excuses to try and keep their prediction right

If we do get a hurricane or TS hitting the CONUS, we will just see them say; "oh well it wasn't a strong storm, it doesn't count, I meant the season was over from a real strike." lol
Quoting Ameister12:

I know there was 90L is May and the Low that hit NJ, but what were the others.


92L
456 Why does the NHC dissipate Henri in 48 hours?
Could we add Corpus Christi to the list please?
Quoting Ameister12:

I know there was 90L is May and the Low that hit NJ, but what were the others.


92L in June was clearly subtropical; matter of fact that was likely the clearest of all 3 systems.

Actually it will be only 3; unless they find something unexpected
Quoting duajones78413:


You sure about that?
you can never been sure of anything
Jeff just posted new entry
NEW BLOG
Quoting Seastep:


It happened a lot in 2007 too if I remember.


There were quite a few in 2007 and 2008:

2007:

STS Andrea
TS Gabrielle
TS Olga

2008:

TS Arthur
Hurricane Dolly
TS Fay (originally, later made TD6 in post season)
Hurricane Kyle (originally, later made TD11 in post season)
TS Laura
TS Nana (originally, later made TD 14 in post season)

Quoting RitaEvac:
1030-1040mb high coming down the plains end of week, aint no storm gonna hit the CONUS, AND gonna sweep out the heat pontential once and for all with this next front. CONUS season is over


Data, numbers, some form of proof that's verifiable other than "I say so", if you would...I remember you as being a reasonable person...what happened there?
Just curious, has there been a storm in the NHC's history that was given less then 3 days to survive and then survive and strengthen to that a three and five day cone had to be put in?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


That was the point I was trying to make to aggie earlier. NHC loves to use continuity; which is why it was perplexing as to why they lowered the chances

Maybe we have a different idea of persistence and continuity. I haven't seen that in Herni's satellite presentation yet at all.

I wasn't in here, but I thought the previous medium chance was a reach based on what data was available.

No surface obs.
Little vorticity in the CIMMS derived product.
Open windfield on the scat obs (this is the only thing that find was persistent).

I was not impressed, but I don't have everything the NHC does in the way of data, experience, analysis theory, etc.

Alternatively, there is very little dry air in the area and shear relaxed nicely, more so than predicted. So the medium chances could be justified on that and the lower chances based mainly on the AScat, once available.
Really done with this now.
Quoting stormsurge39:
456 Why does the NHC dissipate Henri in 48 hours?


Shear and the fact that global models dissipate Henri in about 3 days. I agree with shear but the global models never developed Henri in the 1st place and it did. he will battle shear over the next couple of days but beyond then, it is uncertain as to what he will do, the upper environment has been consistently forecasted to become favorable so if he can survive then development is still a possibility. We'll see how this plays out, but I'm not discounting anything.
New blog.
Henri appears to be moving at 280 or do West, for the past couple of hours.