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91L a Heavy Rain Threat for Texas/Louisiana; Hurricane Carlos a Threat to Mexico

By: Jeff Masters 4:48 PM GMT on June 13, 2015

An area of low pressure over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula formed Saturday morning, and has the potential to become a tropical depression over the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The disturbance, designated Invest 91L by NHC on Saturday morning, was bringing a large area of intense thunderstorms to the Western Caribbean on Saturday afternoon, as seen on satellite images. Strong easterly winds of 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph, were observed at the Yucatan Basin buoy on Saturday morning. The heavy thunderstorm activity will push across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, then move north to northwest towards Texas and Louisiana on Monday. The 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would be marginal for development, a moderately high 15 - 25 knots, Sunday and Monday. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are warm enough to support a tropical storm, 27.5°C (81.5°F), and the atmosphere is very moist. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 30%, respectively. The disturbance will push northwestwards over Texas by Tuesday, but it is uncertain how much rain Texas and Louisiana might get from the storm. The European model favors a more westward track into South Texas with lower rainfall totals of about 1 - 2" over Texas on Monday and Tuesday, while the GFS model shows more development of 91L and a track more towards the east, with the upper Texas coast and Louisiana coast getting about 3 - 5" of rain. Given the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity 91L has already built over the Western Caribbean, I support the wetter forecast of the GFS model for Texas and Louisiana. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Monday morning.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L (right side of image) and Hurricane Carlos (left side of image.)


Figure 2. Radar image of Hurricane Carlos from the Acapulco, Mexico radar, taken at 12:15 pm EDT June 13, 2015. The eyewall had a gap in its west side, and the heaviest rain bands were just offshore.

Hurricane Carlos a heavy rain threat for Mexico
Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are up for the Southwest coast of Mexico, as Hurricane Carlos continues its slow intensification process. Carlos became a hurricane about 140 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, at 11am EDT June 13, marking the second earliest date that we've observed the Northeast Pacific's third hurricane of the year. The record is held by the third hurricane of 1956, which reached hurricane strength on June 12. With very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) beneath it and wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, Carlos is likely to continue a slow intensification process through Monday. On Monday and Tuesday, decreasing ocean temperatures, increasing interaction with land, and drier air will likely cause Carlos to weaken. Satellite loops and radar out of Acapulco shows that the outer spiral bands of Carlos have pushed onshore, but the storm's heaviest rains were just offshore on Saturday. Acapulco recorded sustained winds of 26 mph, gusting to 39 mph, at noon EDT Saturday. The computer models are now more unified in showing Carlos coming closer to the Mexican coast, and Carlos represents a dangerous heavy rain threat to the coast. The 00Z Saturday run of the reliable European model showed Carlos making landfall near Manzanillo, Mexico on Tuesday morning; the 06Z Saturday run of the equally reliable GFS model showed a Tuesday evening landfall near Manzanillo. Heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches will likely affect portions of the Southwest Mexican coast Saturday through Wednesday, which will cause flash flooding and mudslides.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 992. Dakster:

STS --

IN your opinion, is this change in El Nino going to up or lower the odds of a Hurricane strike in the Atlantic side of the US?

And then what are your thoughts for a storm hitting California with the change?




Neither as IMO the US is more vulnerable this year due to all the close to home development. Also Cali is in for a significant Rainy Season come Fall
1002. Gearsts
Quoting 996. washingaway:

Looks like an ULL to me.

It is
Quoting 991. redwagon:

Quoting 977. Patrap:
A newer CoC may be forming nearer the convective burst around 88W 24N.

That would be great - force the storm to NGOM, where they could use it. I think the faster
western 'center' may just bust off and keep coming to TX, newly compact and harmless.


High pressure will not let that happen.
Quoting 934. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

he has been around just not much today
Prolly taking some time with the new pups ....

Quoting 954. HurriHistory:


Nice looking Wave just off the coast of Africa.
If it can hold together across the ATL, maybe it can bring some rain to our ECar friends....



TROPICAL STORM CARLOS at 11PM on june 14 2015 winds 70 mph
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...SMALL TROPICAL STORM CARLOS HUGGING THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 101.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has extended the hurricane watch
northwestward to Playa Perula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-
storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 101.3 West. Carlos is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. A
small deviation to the north of the track would bring the core of
Carlos closer to the coast.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, but only a small increase in intensity would bring Carlos to
hurricane status again.

Carlos is small cyclone. Tropical storm force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area Monday night or early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday and
maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
Quoting 996. washingaway:

Looks like an ULL to me.


Well, water vapor samples the mid- to upper portions of the atmosphere, so that'd be the right enhancement to look for one! :)
Quoting 991. redwagon:

Quoting 977. Patrap:
A newer CoC may be forming nearer the convective burst around 88W 24N.

That would be great - force the storm to NGOM, where they could use it. I think the faster
western 'center' may just bust off and keep coming to TX, newly compact and harmless.

Evening, redwagon. Not sure it we could use it here anymore than Texas could.



Quoting 984. lurkersince2008:

Hello everybody. .... i just want know what you think about the seemingly active start with significant development to this hurricane season when the predictions of a less active season? Or is it too soon speak of it?
I mentioned earlier today that early activity is not automatically a sign of a busy season.... the conditions in ASO don't automatically correlate to those in AMJ. So early season activity basically "pads the numbers" by giving a couple of extra storms that can add to overall totals. Given the likelihood of a substantial ENSO event developing over the next 4 - 6 months, there's definitely the chance that the ATL season will still be below average, numerically speaking and in terms of high ACE / major category storms.
1011. TXCWC
The new burst of convection is right where the surface low pressure is designated at by the NHC. Appears stacked with 850mb as well. Sign of increasing organization maybe. Trying to wrap around itself?
img src="">
Quoting 1011. TXCWC:

The new burst of convection is right where the surface low pressure is designated at by the NHC. Appears stacked with 850mb as well. Trying to wrap around itself?
img src="">
Possible. Overnight hours are best for development, as well. LIkely, very likely, it is that we will see named status in the a.m.

Anyway, I'm out for a few hours.... will likely check in between 3 and 5 a.m. ....
Lots of flash flood warnings/statements issued around the country. Looks like 8 separate areas, from the southwest to the northeast. This one, from NY, indicates evacuations have occurred:

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1033 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

NYC007-015-107-150715-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-150615T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
TIOGA NY-CHEMUNG NY-BROOME NY-
1033 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR TIOGA...NORTHEASTERN CHEMUNG AND SOUTHWESTERN BROOME COUNTIES...

AT 1030 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT MORE RAIN WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE WARNED AREA BY MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL OF BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES HAS
ALREADY FALLEN CAUSING MAJOR FLASH FLOODING IN NORTHERN TIOGA COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN BROOME COUNTY. MANY ROADS WERE FLOODED...WASHED OUT AND EVEN
DAMAGED. SOME HOMES WERE SURROUNDED BY FLOOD WATERS. NEWARK VALLEY HAS
DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY. EVACUATIONS WERE TAKING PLACE IN THE
SPENCER AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BY 2 AM.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS IN THE WARNED AREA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

“Ask many of these candidates about climate change, one of the defining threats of our time, and they’ll say, ‘I’m… not a scientist.'”

“Well then why don’t they start listening to those who are?”
Quoting 1011. TXCWC:

The new burst of convection is right where the surface low pressure is designated at by the NHC. Appears stacked with 850mb as well. Sign of increasing organization maybe. Trying to wrap around itself?
img src="">

A good sign for 91L. That convection should act to weaken the upper-level low and weaken shear atop the disturbance.
Quoting 985. washingtonian115:

Has anyone seen Bappit? I seem to remember them being a resident in Texas.
I haven't seen Bappit on in a long time, been wondering.
Off to bed, currently 82 degrees and with the dew point in the mid-upper 70's I'm not looking forward to tomorrow and Tuesday. 91L trying to wrap around and organize, interesting to watch for tomorrow while my fan is on and the A/C is below room temp. Sadly I need to get work done on my car, and what's worse when it's 90+ degrees out and sticky.....leather seats.
Quoting 1010. BahaHurican:

I mentioned earlier today that early activity is not automatically a sign of a busy season.... the conditions in ASO don't automatically correlate to those in AMJ. So early season activity basically "pads the numbers" by giving a couple of extra storms that can add to overall totals. Given the likelihood of a substantial ENSO event developing over the next 4 - 6 months, there's definitely the chance that the ATL season will still be below average, numerically speaking and in terms of high ACE / major category storms.


My delusional optimism will not be dampened by your practical realism :). It's not padding the numbers, these are real storms. But yes, strengthening El-Nino should make this a slow season. "Should" being the key word. Out of season El-Nino's are not the norm and we don't have many comparisons. Gulf will the most likely spot for above average activity. MDR is going to produce maybe five storms this year. Who knows though, with sea surface temps being what they are in the NE, we could have another Long Island Express like back in 38'. As a whole you are right, this is no sign of an above average season at this point. Think every expert at the centers that give projections would wholly agree with you.
11.2' waves at buoy 42001. There have to be some strong winds somewhere to kick up waves that big.
1022. bappit
Quoting 1018. BaltimoreBrian:

I haven't seen Bappit on in a long time, been wondering.

I'm watching, waiting.

Actually posted a comment last Memorial Day weekend. Had a succession of severe-warned storms move over. Fantastic lightning and thunder.
Just based on my observations, here is my prediction. AL91 (Bill) will make landfall just west of Freeport TX as a TS with 45-50MPH winds.
1024. sar2401
Quoting 1016. TropicalAnalystwx13:


A good sign for 91L. That convection should act to weaken the upper-level low and weaken shear atop the disturbance.
Looking at the Dvorak view, it seems most of the stronger convection is still back around the Yucatan and any convection near the low center is still disorganized and weak. This just doesn't look like an intensifying storm to me.

Edit: It also looks like the convection in the Yucatan is being supported by the outflow from Carlos. Carlos doesn't look much better than 91L right now.

bappit it's great to see you! :)
1026. sar2401
Quoting 1023. Stormchaser121:

Just based on my observations, here is my prediction. AL91 (Bill) will make landfall just west of Freeport TX as a TS with 45-50MPH winds.
FWIW, the newest GFS (00z) has the low still weak and making landfall closer to Brownsville in 36 hours.

1027. sar2401
Quoting 1015. LAbonbon:

Shell removing non-essential workers from Gulf of Mexico
The futures market's not buying a threat to production. Oil is down 53 cents and gasoline is down 9 cents. OTOH, Canadian and North Dakota oil has also displaced the Gulf as our major source of oil, so less that a hurricane headed toward the central Gulf is not going to have the effect on prices it did even two years ago.
Quoting 1026. sar2401:

FWIW, the newest GFS (00z) has the low still weak and making landfall closer to Brownsville in 36 hours.



So basically, the weaker it is, the futher west. The stronger it is, the further east?
Quoting 951. BrazoriaMan:




Thats just the GFS and it's ensembles right? 4 or 5 other models take it farther North. GFS could be right back with the others at 2 am. GFS has not performed the best in a while from what I have seen. That tropical storm a year or so ago that had everyone in a fight over Texas or Florida...GFS said Texas...didn't go to Texas lol
That was tropical storm Debby and the gfs was the only model to bring it to Florda.
Quoting 1027. sar2401:

The futures market's not buying a threat to production. Oil is down 53 cents and gasoline is down 9 cents. OTOH, Canadian and North Dakota oil has also displaced the Gulf as our major source of oil, so less that a hurricane headed toward the central Gulf is not going to have the effect on prices it did even two years ago.

I posted the article in regards to the potential impact to the people that work offshore...lots of us in LA & TX have friends and family members who work in the Gulf. And some bloggers here work offshore as well.

But I do understand your point.
I'm guessing this will be a wait and see.
We wait and see if this will be Tropical Storm Bill
and we wait and see if it does go West of Houston
or East of Houston....

Taco :o)
1032. sar2401
Quoting 1017. BaltimoreBrian:

!!! The Agency: From a nondescript office building in St. Petersburg, Russia, an army of well-paid "trolls" has tried to wreak havoc all around the Internet and in real-life American communities.
We have met the enemy and it is Twitter...and Instagram...and Facebook. I've seen these Russkie trolls at work on financial blogs. They aren't very good at it so far but they are getting better. Their goal is to influence markets by planting all sorts of circular rumors, especially at time of turmoil. When we get a big hurricane in the Gulf, they'll be showing up here too.
Guys I see 60% is now used for the medium chance of development, I would have swear it was used for high chance of development years ago, or it has always been 60 and I have been blind all the time?
Quoting 1027. sar2401:

The futures market's not buying a threat to production. Oil is down 53 cents and gasoline is down 9 cents. OTOH, Canadian and North Dakota oil has also displaced the Gulf as our major source of oil, so less that a hurricane headed toward the central Gulf is not going to have the effect on prices it did even two years ago.

You're right.
Companies that sell forecasts for the pros...well, the GOM Mexico forecasts just aren't as important.

Production down there just isn't as important as it used to be.
Refineries hit are still important.
Profits might be down a little for corporations like WSI,
Here on the blog, to cut expenses we might have to limit our posts to 140 characters..as if we didn't have that many already.
1035. sar2401
Quoting 1030. LAbonbon:


I posted the article in regards to the potential impact to the people that work offshore...lots of us in LA & TX have friends and family members who work in the Gulf. And some bloggers here work offshore as well.

But I do understand your point.
I did not read it that way, especially when the article states -

"The U.S. National Hurricane Center has warned that tropical storm conditions could appear along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana as early as Tuesday."


Are you aware of the NHC issuing any kind of warning like that?
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH
PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS 12Z WW3 AND 12Z
ECMWF WAVE BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N91W TO 20N89W
MOVING NNW AT 7 KT. A BROAD 1008 MB LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR 22N90W. RIDGING IS LOCATED TO THE N ALONG 31N
JUST INLAND OVER THE U.S. GULF COAST STATES. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE TEXAS WATERS AND OFFSHORE OF NE MEXICO. IN
ADDITION...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE S CENTRAL AND SE
GULF NEAR WESTERN CUBA WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TO THE NW-N
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...MOVING INLAND OVER TEXAS TUE. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSSIBLE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...HOWEVER THE
GFS REMAINS STRONGER AS FAR AS THE ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS. THE
PRES GRADIENT DOES APPEAR TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO
WARRANT GALE WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF ZONES. THE LOW
CURRENTLY HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
PRIOR TO MOVING INLAND.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRES AND RETURN FLOW
DOMINATING THE BASIN. EXPECT DIURNAL TROUGHING TO FORM OVER THE
YUCATAN EACH DAY...MOVING OFFSHORE TO THE W OVER THE SW GULF EACH
EVENING WITH PULSING FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN
TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

From Marine Wx Discussion
Quoting 1023. Stormchaser121:

Just based on my observations, here is my prediction. AL91 (Bill) will make landfall just west of Freeport TX as a TS with 45-50MPH winds.


AS of 8pm CDT Sunday, the point forecast available in High Seas Forecast package brings the COC ashore near Matagorda Bay.
1038. TxLisa
Good Evening Everyone! Any Houstonians on here know what local forecast is in terms of rain fall for Bill. I live in Clear Lake area and we're getting prepared. After Memorial Day flood I'm a little worried. I drove through it for two hours trying to pick up family member from Hobby Airport. She said from up above the storm in the plane it looked like Armagedon with the constant multiple lightning strikes!
Quoting 1038. TxLisa:

Good Evening Everyone! Any Houstonians on here know what local forecast is in terms of rain fall for Bill. I live in Clear Lake area and we're getting prepared. After Memorial Day flood I'm a little worried. I drove through it for two hours trying to pick up family member from Hobby Airport. She said from up above the storm in the plane it looked like Armagedon with the constant multiple lightning strikes!


Here you go. The dark green line is the official NWS forecast. The graphic changes as it is updated. Click graph to expand.

45-50 mph winds and 3" to 5" of rain in Freeport, Texas and along the Houston Ship Channel is not a big deal.
We had record rainfalls during the past 60-days, including one incidence of nearly 7" of rain in a 45-minute period in Pasadena, Texas last month.
The storm shouldn't cause massive power outages, but may cause more flooding than would normally occur. Our bayous are already near capacity, the reservoirs are full and the ground is pretty well saturated. Not much of the rain will soak in, but rather will run off into the already full drainage system.
Best course of action: Relax, make a nice kettle of herbal tea and settle in for the day. Stay away from the beach and cozy up indoors with a warm dog and a good book.
Quoting 1033. allancalderini:

Guys I see 60% is now used for the medium chance of development, I would have swear it was used for high chance of development years ago, or it has always been 60 and I have been blind all the time?

Changed this year.
Quoting 1038. TxLisa:

Good Evening Everyone! Any Houstonians on here know what local forecast is in terms of rain fall for Bill. I live in Clear Lake area and we're getting prepared. After Memorial Day flood I'm a little worried. I drove through it for two hours trying to pick up family member from Hobby Airport. She said from up above the storm in the plane it looked like Armagedon with the constant multiple lightning strikes!


Clear Lake would that be on the Nassau Bay side close to NASA.
then I might want to be ready for more "Flooding" in that area.
The water channels up into Clear Lake and has no where to go.

Taco :o)
1043. sar2401
Quoting 1038. TxLisa:

Good Evening Everyone! Any Houstonians on here know what local forecast is in terms of rain fall for Bill. I live in Clear Lake area and we're getting prepared. After Memorial Day flood I'm a little worried. I drove through it for two hours trying to pick up family member from Hobby Airport. She said from up above the storm in the plane it looked like Armagedon with the constant multiple lightning strikes!
Did you have flooding from the last series of storms? If so, AL91 may bring enough rain to cause flooding again, so you should do what you need to so you can protect life and property. If you didn't have flooding, this does not look like a large enough event to cause it this time. As usual, keep up the NHC and NWS, since they are the ones most current on hazards.
Good evening. Checking the small satellite picture on my phone, looks like maybe a split or spin off with the original center going to South Texas and a new center possibly forming near the Yucatan. Crazy or possible? Sorry if it's been suggested already but curious as to thoughts. Thanks!
Quoting 1035. sar2401:

I did not read it that way, especially when the article states -

"The U.S. National Hurricane Center has warned that tropical storm conditions could appear along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana as early as Tuesday."


Are you aware of the NHC issuing any kind of warning like that?

sar, the main point of the article (including the headline) is the evacuation of personnel. I'm not sure what you're objecting to.

Regarding the statement about the NHC, from the latest TWO:

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday
. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent

Edit - changed most of post to reflect TWO, not TWD
1046. TxLisa
Quoting 1043. sar2401:

Did you have flooding from the last series of storms? If so, AL91 may bring enough rain to cause flooding again, so you should do what you need to so you can protect life and property. If you didn't have flooding, this does not look like a large enough event to cause it this time. As usual, keep up the NHC and NWS, since they are the ones most current on hazards.
Quoting 1043. sar2401:

Did you have flooding from the last series of storms? If so, AL91 may bring enough rain to cause flooding again, so you should do what you need to so you can protect life and property. If you didn't have flooding, this does not look like a large enough event to cause it this time. As usual, keep up the NHC and NWS, since they are the ones most current on hazards.


Yes, unfortunately our street tends to flood with heavy rains. I appreciate the information! You have a good evening!
1047. Gearsts
Quoting 1041. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Changed this year.
60% is still 60% -_-
1048. TxLisa
Quoting 1042. taco2me61:



Clear Lake would that be on the Nassau Bay side close to NASA.
then I might want to be ready for more "Flooding" in that area.
The water channels up into Clear
Lake and has no where to go.

Taco :o)


I live very close to Ellington Field. The newer road construction into our subdividion floods very easily. I'm not sure what those engineers were thinking (or drinking) when they designed it.
Quoting 1047. Gearsts:

60% is still 60% -_-

...yeah.

He asked whether 60% has always been medium. I said it changed this year. What's the issue?
Quoting 1034. CosmicEvents:


You're right.
Companies that sell forecasts for the pros...well, the GOM Mexico forecasts just aren't as important.

Production down there just isn't as important as it used to be.
Refineries hit are still important.
Profits might be down a little for corporations like WSI,
Here on the blog, to cut expenses we might have to limit our posts to 140 characters..as if we didn't have that many already.

Islander101010 would be all set - he posts in 3-5 words all the time. Sort of a meteorological shorthand, understandable, too :)
1051. sar2401
Quoting 1034. CosmicEvents:


You're right.
Companies that sell forecasts for the pros...well, the GOM Mexico forecasts just aren't as important.

Production down there just isn't as important as it used to be.
Refineries hit are still important.
Profits might be down a little for corporations like WSI,
Here on the blog, to cut expenses we might have to limit our posts to 140 characters..as if we didn't have that many already.
I imagine, between last year's El Nino debacle and falling oil and commodity prices, that WSI is not the big profit producer for TWC is once as. It's really quite amazing how swiftly the Gulf has been displaced from its previous position of the US's biggest oil producer. It's still a big producer though, and a real hurricane headed toward the platforms would still have an effect on prices. My concern with a storm like Bill is that it's really peripheral to Gulf oil but it opens the door for the Russians to try to troll up the prices with fake news stories and the other tricks in the article posted by Brian. The Russians are desperate to have the price of oil increase since oil is its biggest earner of foreign exchange.
1052. sar2401
Quoting 1050. LAbonbon:


Islander101010 would be all set - he posts in 3-5 words all the time. Sort of a meteorological shorthand, understandable, too :)
LOL. That.is.so.true.
Interesting read on spaceweather.com

During the past month of low solar activity, ionizing radiation in the stratosphere has increased by 10%. This may seem counterintuitive, but there is a simple explanation: The radiation we measure is dominated by cosmic rays--a mix of subatomic particles, X-rays and gamma-rays that come from outside the solar system. Explosions on the sun (especially CMEs) tend to push these cosmic rays away from Earth. During the past month, however, there have been relatively few CMEs. Fewer CMEs means more cosmic rays. Yin-yang.

Cosmic rays are an important form of space weather. They matter to anyone who steps foot on an airplane. According to NASA, a 100,000 mile frequent flier will absorb a dose of radiation equivalent to 10 chest X-rays--all from cosmic rays. Cosmic rays have also been linked to cloud cover, lightning, and they may play some role in climate change.

If the sun remains quiet, cosmic rays could increase even more. Stay tuned for updates from the stratosphere.
1054. sar2401
Quoting 1046. TxLisa:



Yes, unfortunately our street tends to flood with heavy rains. I appreciate the information! You have a good evening!
As long as it stays in the street it's just an inconvenience. If there's a chance it could get in the house, I'd have some kind of plan about getting important and valuable things up off the floor.
Quoting 1048. TxLisa:



I live very close to Ellington Field. The newer road construction into our subdividion floods very easily. I'm not sure what those engineers were thinking (or drinking) when they designed it.


I have family that live in Nassau Bay Sub and have seen just 2"
of rain "Flood" that Sub. It was crazy to say the least. I agree with
SAR about the NHC and NWS out of League City giving you all the
information you will need. I can almost say that you could get more
Flooding from what ever this may be....

Taco :o)
Quoting 1035. sar2401:

I did not read it that way, especially when the article states -

"The U.S. National Hurricane Center has warned that tropical storm conditions could appear along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana as early as Tuesday."


Are you aware of the NHC issuing any kind of warning like that?


At a hurricane conference I was at earlier in the year it was mentioned that the NHC wants to be able to issue warnings for systems close to land that have the high potential to develop. They said it was because of systems that have 40 50 even 60 mph winds and not a clear circulation but should have enough time to develop before landfall. They said in a couple years they'd like to be able to issue tropical storm development warnings. They said the goal was to have them quickly transition over into regular tropical storm watches and warnings once the system was designated. The 8pm TWO actually looks like they are beginning a nod in that direction.
The next major, MAJOR hurricane to hit Houston will:

1. be CAT 5
2.turn SE TX into an inland sea.
3. severely damage the South Texas Nuclear Project, sending deadly clouds of radiation northward. (one can see opposition to nukes grow from this)
4. ignite oil refineries with massive lightning strikes.
5. drive oil and gas prices to almost astronomical heights, almost (if not actually) bringing the era of the automobile and plastics to an end.
6. erode USA's economic clout.
7. turn Texas Democrat and everyone here votes for Hillary Clinton
8. end the debate over climate change.

Anyone have anything they want to contribute?
1058. sar2401
Quoting 1045. LAbonbon:


sar, the main point of the article (including the headline) is the evacuation of personnel. I'm not sure what you're objecting to.

Regarding the statement about the NHC, I don't know exactly what they are interpreting. Not sure where they got 80% from in the article (NHC has >60%). From the latest TWD:

"EXPECT NUMEROUS AREAS
OF CONVECTION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO NW GULF
THROUGH MONDAY...ALONG WITH AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS. "

and

"GALE-FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS FEATURE IS
FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO FZNT02 KNHC OR
MIAHSFAT2. THE CHANCES OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH
. "
Everything in the article looks true and on the up and up. Here's what concerns me about that site though -

"NewsDaily -- a service of the science news site ScienceDaily -- is an automated general news site featuring breaking stories from major news wires, newspapers, and other sources across the world."

These automated sites are prime targets for Russian trolls. If you haven't read the article Brian posted about this you should do so. This is an increasing issue in news gathering. The Russians will hit automated sites repeatedly with fake news articles in the hope some of them are picked up. There's at least one article there now in my quick read that I believe is a Russian troll article. I'll bet there are more. The Russians are experts at impersonating Reuters and AP dispatches. When I search Google using the story headline, it does show up on multiple sites as coming from Reuters. In this case, I assume those workers will still get paid and can do work onshore. I hope it won't be a burden on them, especially since the threat should be gone in two days. If nothing else, I always do a Google search to make sure an article is true when I am reading something at an automated news site. The Russians are at work 24 hours a day spreading lies on the internet.


1059. sar2401
Quoting 1057. pureet1948:

The next major, MAJOR hurricane to hit Houston will:

1. be CAT 5
2.turn SE TX into an inland sea.
3. severely damage the South Texas Nuclear Project, sending deadly clouds of radiation northward. (one can see opposition to nukes grow from this)
4. ignite oil refineries with massive lightning strikes.
5. drive oil and gas prices to almost astronomical heights, almost bringing the era of the automobile to an end.
6. erode USA's economic clout.
7. turn Texas Democrat and everyone here votes for Hillary Clinton
8. end the debate over climate change.

Anyone have anything they want to contribute?
Of everything you listed, most of which are ridiculous, I'd pick #7 as impossible...
Quoting 1059. sar2401:

Of everything you listed, most of which are ridiculous, I'd pick #7 as impossible...


Come on.. just moved here!!! lol.
Quoting 1057. pureet1948:

The next major, MAJOR hurricane to hit Houston will:

1. be CAT 5
2.turn SE TX into an inland sea.
3. severely damage the South Texas Nuclear Project, sending deadly clouds of radiation northward. (one can see opposition to nukes grow from this)
4. ignite oil refineries with massive lightning strikes.
5. drive oil and gas prices to almost astronomical heights, almost bringing the era of the automobile to an end.
6. erode USA's economic clout.
7. turn Texas Democrat and everyone here votes for Hillary Clinton
8. end the debate over climate change.

Anyone have anything they want to contribute?

Are your posts meant to be satirical, or do you enjoy hyping everything?
Quoting 1058. sar2401:

Everything in the article looks true and on the up and up. Here's what concerns me about that site though -

"NewsDaily -- a service of the science news site ScienceDaily -- is an automated general news site featuring breaking stories from major news wires, newspapers, and other sources across the world."

These automated sites are prime targets for russian trolls. If you haven't read the article Brian posted about this you should do so. This is an increasing issue in news gathering. The Russians will hit automated sites repeatedly with fake news articles in the hope some of them are picked up. There's at least one article there now in my quick read that I believe is a Russian troll article. I'll bet there are more. The Russians are experts at impersonating Reuters and AP dispatches. When I search Google using the story headline, it does show up on multiple sites as coming from Reuters. In this case, I assume those workers will still get paid and can do work onshore. I hope it won't be a burden on them, especially since the threat should be gone in two days. If nothing else, I always do a Google search to make sure an article is true when I reading something at an automated news site. The Russians are at work 24 hours a day spreading lies on the internet.




rutro, sar - I changed most of my post #1045 to reflect the TWO, not the TWD. Looks like my edit and your post crossed each other. HurricaneKing (#1056) also makes an interesting point.

Regarding the article's source - I did check to verify it was from Reuters, actually. But as to Russian trolls, I don't know what the solution is...



There's a whole lot of people on the web with agendas and axes to grind, from all parts of the globe. Separating the wheat from the chaff seems to be a necessary m.o. these days, for many sites, unfortunately.
1063. sar2401
Quoting 1056. HurricaneKing:



At a hurricane conference I was at earlier in the year it was mentioned that the NHC wants to be able to issue warnings for systems close to land that have the high potential to develop. They said it was because of systems that have 40 50 even 60 mph winds and not a clear circulation but should have enough time to develop before landfall. They said in a couple years they'd like to be able to issue tropical storm development warnings. They said the goal was to have them quickly transition over into regular tropical storm watches and warnings once the system was designated. The 8pm TWO actually looks like they are beginning a nod in that direction.
I suspect they probably are as well, since 91L only needs a better circulation to be classified. The gale force winds, although not being directly caused by a tropical storm, are already there. They are pretty well bound by their protocols so they can issue tropical cyclone warnings when no tropical cyclone exists. The only ones who know about 91L are weather geeks, avid news hounds, and oil and gas traders. It seems to me that the NHC needs some kind of subwarning about a system that's almost a tropical depression, gives every indication it will be a tropical cyclone in the next 12-24 hours, is or will be close to land, but isn't quite a tropical cyclone yet. When Bill is finally declared as a TD or TS, it's only going to have a little more than 24 hours to landfall. It's going to seem like this was a sneak storm to the a lot of the general public.
NHC has it at 80 percent? Not sure about the debate on the post.

A little late I was, Trouble posting the img.

1065. ncstorm
late night/early morning post..

The 00z UKMET is not playing in intensifying this storm over land..



and takes it to the NE
Quoting 1063. sar2401:

I suspect they probably are as well, since 91L only needs a better circulation to be classified. The gale force winds, although not being directly caused by a tropical storm, are already there. They are pretty well bound by their protocols so they can issue tropical cyclone warnings when no tropical cyclone exists. The only ones who know about 91L are weather geeks, avid news hounds, and oil and gas traders. It seems to me that the NHC needs some kind of subwarning about a system that's almost a tropical depression, gives every indication it will be a tropical cyclone in the next 12-24 hours, is or will be close to land, but isn't quite a tropical cyclone yet. When Bill is finally declared as a TD or TS, it's only going to have a little more than 24 hours to landfall. It's going to seem like this was a sneak storm to the a lot of the general public.


That was their reasoning. They discussed the warnings for post tropical storms, that they are now doing, and how it is helping to keep the public alert and that the want to do the same for almost named systems. They are also working on new ways to get surge information to the public. Ways that are easier to understand as well as working with local officials to update evacuation procedures. It really looks like a new era is dawning at both the hurricane center and the weather services of a more public oriented approach and I like it. Hopefully I will stop getting questions from family about what the difference is between above sea level and above ground level.
Quoting 1063. sar2401:

I suspect they probably are as well, since 91L only needs a better circulation to be classified. The gale force winds, although not being directly caused by a tropical storm, are already there. They are pretty well bound by their protocols so they can issue tropical cyclone warnings when no tropical cyclone exists. The only ones who know about 91L are weather geeks, avid news hounds, and oil and gas traders. It seems to me that the NHC needs some kind of subwarning about a system that's almost a tropical depression, gives every indication it will be a tropical cyclone in the next 12-24 hours, is or will be close to land, but isn't quite a tropical cyclone yet. When Bill is finally declared as a TD or TS, it's only going to have a little more than 24 hours to landfall. It's going to seem like this was a sneak storm to the a lot of the general public.

Good news is, the storm's potential to hit Monday/Tuesday is on local news outlets, both in Houston and Lake Charles.
1069. sar2401
Quoting 1062. LAbonbon:


rutro, sar - I changed most of my post #1045 to reflect the TWO, not the TWD. Looks like my edit and your post crossed each other. HurricaneKing (#1056) also makes an interesting point.

Regarding the article's source - I did check to verify it was from Reuters, actually. But as to Russian trolls, I don't know what the solution is...



There's a whole lot of people on the web with agendas and axes to grind, from all parts of the globe. Separating the wheat from the chaff seems to be a necessary m.o. these days, for many sites, unfortunately.
Yeah, I knew what you meant. Of anyone here, I can usually count on you to check sources. Other people, not so much. I really wish these automated news gathering sites could be better regulated. Some are just pure lies and spam while others at least try to weed it out. The old days of journalism, where reporters checked and double checked sources is long gone. The Twitter world is now the worst of this. Just like the recent Texas floods, people were posting pictures of flooding from previous years or other places and representing them as "breaking out of Texas". I assume those people are just mentally ill. The Russians are another whole issue. There are very few other governments sponsoring whole teams of people to spread what Putin wants spread, and doing it in a very devious manner. Unfortunately, the only thing to do is use Google to try and verify a story or picture. If the Russians figure out a way to hijack Google, then we're really screwed. :-)
Quoting 1061. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Are your posts meant to be satirical, or do you enjoy hyping everything?


this is satirical, don't worry.
1071. sar2401
Quoting 1068. LAbonbon:


Good news is, the storm's potential to hit Monday/Tuesday is on local news outlets, both in Houston and Lake Charles.
I'm glad to hear that, although "some kind of low out in the Gulf" doesn't have the same impact as "Tropical Storm Bill !!!!" :-)
Quoting 1067. canehater1:



Looking a bit...dry.
500 ht surface wind!!
Link
1074. sar2401
Quoting 1066. HurricaneKing:



That was their reasoning. They discussed the warnings for post tropical storms, that they are now doing, and how it is helping to keep the public alert and that the want to do the same for almost named systems. They are also working on new ways to get surge information to the public. Ways that are easier to understand as well as working with local officials to update evacuation procedures. It really looks like a new era is dawning at both the hurricane center and the weather services of a more public oriented approach and I like it. Hopefully I will stop getting questions from family about what the difference is between above sea level and above ground level.
LOL. They do that to you, eh? There does need to be some kind of better warning system initiated, especially since we now have all this data we didn't have even 10 years ago. From the couple of forecasters I know, this seems to be the new guys against the old guys. The new guys are in favor of expanding warnings about lots of things so it doesn't seem like a storm or event snuck up on the public. The old guys say if it was good enough for Bob Sheets, it's good enough for anyone. :-)
Quoting 1045. LAbonbon:


sar, the main point of the article (including the headline) is the evacuation of personnel. I'm not sure what you're objecting to.

Regarding the statement about the NHC, from the latest TWO:

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday
. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent

Edit - changed most of post to reflect TWO, not TWD


Where I come from 80% is a pretty damn good chance your going to get it. This is a no brain forecast. Whatever it is is headed somewhere between Mid Texas and LA. The stronger it is the better chance for N Tex, LA
1076. sar2401
Quoting 1072. Huracan94:


Looking a bit...dry.
Yes, it is. The convection is still not developing or wrapping into what I think is the center. Big problem for the NHC since this could remain 91L for life or could become TS Bill, and all in the next 30 hours or so.
1077. sar2401
Quoting 1075. ProgressivePulse:

Katrina formed from this sort of interaction.

Where I come from 80% is a pretty damn good chance your going to get it. This is a no brain forecast. Whatever it is is headed somewhere between Mid Texas and LA. The stronger it is the better chance for N Tex, LA
Katrina was a hurricane long before it hit the Gulf. 91L is not going to be Katrina.
1078. sar2401
Quoting 1064. swflurker:

NHC has it at 80 percent? Not sure about the debate on the post.

A little late I was, Trouble posting the img.


You'd have to read the news article and look at the time to understand.
Quoting 1077. sar2401:

Katrina was a hurricane long before it hit the Gulf. 91L is not going to be Katrina.


I didn't realize that made it in, it was supposed to be deleted. I realize irellevent in this case.
Shell removing non-essential workers from Gulf of Mexico

Sunday, June 14, 2015 ERWIN SEBA FOR REUTERS

HOUSTON (Reuters) – Leading Gulf of Mexico oil producer Shell Oil Co, the U.S. arm of Royal Dutch Shell Plc, said it was removing non-essential workers from offshore platforms as a precautionary measure ahead of a low-pressure storm system given an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Shell said there would be no impact to offshore production due to the removal of non-essential workers ahead of the storm system’s approach to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center has warned that tropical storm conditions could appear along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana as early as Tuesday.

Earlier in the day, Shell said it was only monitoring the storm system as did BP Plc.

But by Sunday night, Shell said it was withdrawing workers who primarily provide support services to workers who operate off-shore platforms.

“Shell has initiated efforts to reduce non-essential personnel on some offshore assets as a precautionary measure in addition to normal preparations for heavy weather,” said Shell spokesman Ray Fisher.

Removal of non-essentials can also be the first taken prior to temporarily closing production, which happens when production workers are removed to safer areas on-shore.


Read more at http://newsdaily.com/2015/06/u-s-oil-companies-eye -tropical-disturbance-in-south-gulf-of-mexico/#PYk 2fcwAV2ebyqD5.99
I say 91L % on new TWO will go up maybe 90%/90% or 90%/100% or something of the sort
and I would expect either TD 2 or TS Bill by 5am maybe 11am the absolute latest
1082. sar2401
Quoting 1060. saltydog1327:



Come on.. just moved here!!! lol.
Hey, if you're a Democrat, you're in trouble then. :-)
Quoting 1079. ProgressivePulse:



I didn't realize that made it in, it was supposed to be deleted. I realize irellevent in this case.

Hate when that happens :O
1084. sar2401
Quoting 1081. wunderkidcayman:

I say 91L % on new TWO will go up maybe 90%/90% or 90%/100% or something of the sort
and I would expect either TD 2 or TS Bill by 5am maybe 11am the absolute latest

90%/100%? I don't think it works like that.
Quoting 1077. sar2401:

Katrina was a hurricane long before it hit the Gulf. 91L is not going to be Katrina.


Corrected BUT, content is correct, lol.
1086. sar2401
Quoting 1080. Longjohn119:

Shell removing non-essential workers from Gulf of Mexico

Sunday, June 14, 2015 ERWIN SEBA FOR REUTERS


It looks like you're late to the discussion about this. The article you just posted came from the site in question.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the broad
area of low pressure over the south-central Gulf of Mexico has
changed little over the past several hours. The system's
circulation is not well-defined, and the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. The low continues to
produce tropical storm force winds well to the east and northeast of
the center. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more
favorable while this system moves northwestward during the next
day or two across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm could form during that time. A
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later this morning.

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
1088. sar2401
Quoting 1085. ProgressivePulse:



Corrected BUT, content is correct, lol.
Except for the fact it might hit anywhere from northern Mexico to the TX/LA border. We'll have to see what the NHC comes up with. I do try not to mention the "K" word in connection with a storm that has no chance of becoming another "K". There are many lurkers here that get kind of upset thinking about that again.
Quoting 1084. sar2401:

90%/100%? I don't think it works like that.


oh fine if you want technical
90%/Near 100%

or maybe it just may stay 80%/80%
Quoting 1074. sar2401:

LOL. They do that to you, eh? There does need to be some kind of better warning system initiated, especially since we now have all this data we didn't have even 10 years ago. From the couple of forecasters I know, this seems to be the new guys against the old guys. The new guys are in favor of expanding warnings about lots of things so it doesn't seem like a storm or event snuck up on the public. The old guys say if it was good enough for Bob Sheets, it's good enough for anyone. :-)


Well you have to also take into account "Warning Fatigue" where it is just Human Nature to start ignoring warnings because so many don't turn out to be anything. This is a well known problem in the Midwest and Plains where using the tornado sirens too often is proven to lead to most people just ignoring them. You have to find a kind of balance and that is the issue .... It's not Old Guys vs New Guys as much as it is Experienced Guys knowing better than the Inexperienced Guys simply because they have already experienced the Down Side.
oh look its 80%/80%
not too surprised there
low level isn't perfect yet
and convection does need to build up some more
1092. sar2401
Quoting 1087. TropicalAnalystwx13:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the broad
area of low pressure over the south-central Gulf of Mexico has
changed little over the past several hours. The system's
circulation is not well-defined, and the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. The low continues to
produce tropical storm force winds well to the east and northeast of
the center. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more
favorable while this system moves northwestward during the next
day or two across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm could form during that time. A
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later this morning.

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Not even posted at the NHC yet. You're fast. :-) I expected this. The appearance hasn't improved and the convection is still scattered and mainly east of the low. I magine the NHC is on pins and needles waiting for 91L to do something.
Quoting 1086. sar2401:

It looks like you're late to the discussion about this. The article you just posted came from the site in question.


I wasn't aware any site was even in question ........
1095. sar2401
Quoting 1091. wunderkidcayman:

oh look its 80%/80%
not too surprised there
low level isn't perfect yet
and convection does need to build up some more
It sounded in post #1081 like you were expecting a little more.
1097. sar2401
Quoting 1093. Longjohn119:



I wasn't aware any site was even in question ........
As I said, you're late to the discussion. If you go back to #1045 and read forward you'll see the discussion about the site. Any time there's some kind of tropical disturbance in the Gulf, the blog tends to move too fast to understand what was said a page or two earlier.
1098. sar2401
Quoting 1096. canehater1:


At least there's one little white area a little closer to the storm now. That low is so broad that it's going to have a devil of a time tightening up and getting some convection before it gets a lot closer to landfall.
Quoting 1093. Longjohn119:



I wasn't aware any site was even in question ........

LOL - let me sum it up...I posted the same link you did, sar focused on the price of crude, production, and the Russian troll army posting fake 'news' stories (BaltimoreBrian posted an article on Russian trolls)...some back and forth...and here we are. Evacuations occurring, storm brewing/looming, NHC's TWO steady since 8 pm, and the Russian troll army is likely typing away.

No need to backtrack :)
Is it just me, or is AL91 stationary? Looks like it is barely moving.
1101. sar2401
Quoting 1090. Longjohn119:



Well you have to also take into account "Warning Fatigue" where it is just Human Nature to start ignoring warnings because so many don't turn out to be anything. This is a well known problem in the Midwest and Plains where using the tornado sirens too often is proven to lead to most people just ignoring them. You have to find a kind of balance and that is the issue .... It's not Old Guys vs New Guys as much as it is Experienced Guys knowing better than the Inexperienced Guys simply because they have already experienced the Down Side.
Yes, I live in the Birmingham CWA, and we had the highest false positive rate for tornadoes last year. Warning fatigue is a big problem here, but that's a different issue than what's facing the NHC. There's no doubt that 91L has an excellent chance of becoming Bill before landfall. Unfortunately, it may only be hours before landfall it finally gets named. Tornadoes can crop up even when not forecasted. 91L is a prisoner of the classification system.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 23N91W THAT IS
NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 26N91W INTO THE LOW CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N92W.
A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N78W. GIVEN THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE LOW. A RECENT WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 14/2350 UTC
INDICATED A FEW NON-RAIN FLAGGED RETRIEVALS OF NEAR GALE TO GALE
FORCE WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NW DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

As imagery would suggest the ULL and 91-L are entangled. If this does get organized, it will likely happen just prior to landfall.
1103. sar2401
Quoting 1099. LAbonbon:


LOL - let me sum it up...I posted the same link you did, sar focused on the price of crude, production, and the Russian troll army posting fake 'news' stories (BaltimoreBrian posted an article on Russian trolls)...some back and forth...and here we are. Evacuations occurring, storm brewing/looming, NHC's TWO steady since 8 pm, and the Russian troll army is likely typing away.

No need to backtrack :)
Good one paragraph summary. :-0
1104. sar2401
Quoting 1102. canehater1:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
Am I the only one that still sees the 8:00 TWO on the NHC site? I've cleared my cache and I still don't see the latest update.
I believe what we have been seeing is the breakdown of the Polar Jet Steam becoming the dominate factor in climate and weather, even more so than el Nino and la Nina. It looks have even delayed the current el Nino for over a year.

I think we are soon going to find out that some of the Rules of Thumb for el Nino's no longer apply or are not as likely to happen and are less predictable
1106. sar2401
Quoting 1100. Stormchaser121:

Is it just me, or is AL91 stationary? Looks like it is barely moving.
It's still moving, although it looks like some western movement now. I don't know what the NHC is saying for speed but it looks like about 5-7 mph to me.
Quoting 1095. sar2401:

It sounded in post #1081 like you were expecting a little more.


well I expected one of either 2 outcomes

#1 (90%/90% or 90%/ near 100%) NHC would bump up % because low level had organized more that it had before and and increase in convection would invoke an advisory
#2 (80%/80%) NHC would leave the % as it is due to lower convection than earlier and even though low levels have become more organized it it needs to get even more organized before they bump it up then if more convection and organization continues this would invoke advisory

seems NHC took outcome #2 basically

anyway I'm out for a few hrs
Quoting 1092. sar2401:

Not even posted at the NHC yet. You're fast. :-) I expected this. The appearance hasn't improved and the convection is still scattered and mainly east of the low. I magine the NHC is on pins and needles waiting for 91L to do something.
Quoting 1104. sar2401:

Am I the only one that still sees the 8:00 TWO on the NHC site? I've cleared my cache and I still don't see the latest update.


yes must be because I see it

umm did you try to click the link rather look at date and time on main page

anyway for real I'm out

just refreshed

Tropical Weather Outlook (en Espaol*)
200 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015


Tropical Weather Discussion
205 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
Quoting 1104. sar2401:

Am I the only one that still sees the 8:00 TWO on the NHC site? I've cleared my cache and I still don't see the latest update.

I see the 2 am
1110. sar2401
Quoting 1108. wunderkidcayman:



yes must be because I see it

umm did you try to click the link rather look at date and time on main page

anyway for real I'm out

just refreshed

Tropical Weather Outlook (en Espa�ol*)
200 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015


Tropical Weather Discussion
205 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015
Umm....yeah. I'm not a moron. The mobile site shows the update but not the main NHC tropical web page.
1111. sar2401
Quoting 1109. LAbonbon:


I see the 2 am
I must have something stuck on my end then. Time to do even more cache cleaning...
1113. sar2401
Quoting 1107. wunderkidcayman:



well I expected one of either 2 outcomes

#1 (90%/90% or 90%/ near 100%) NHC would bump up % because low level had organized more that it had before and and increase in convection would invoke an advisory
#2 (80%/80%) NHC would leave the % as it is due to lower convection than earlier and even though low levels have become more organized it it needs to get even more organized before they bump it up then if more convection and organization continues this would invoke advisory

seems NHC took outcome #2 basically

anyway I'm out for a few hrs
Well, no, that's not what you said. This is what you said. There's no need to try to make yourself look right. It's really not that important, and it lowers your credibility.

1081. wunderkidcayman
12:53 AM CDT on June 15, 2015
0
I say 91L % on new TWO will go up maybe 90%/90% or 90%/100% or something of the sort
and I would expect either TD 2 or TS Bill by 5am maybe 11am the absolute latest
Quoting 1111. sar2401:

I must have something stuck on my end then. Time to do even more cache cleaning...

Speaking of stuck, remember the other day when you suggested changing DNS to google so there wouldn't be accessibility issues for NWS sites...and I said, 'nah, too complicated'?

Well, the last couple of days I've been unable to access the MODIS site, and I'm wondering if it's something similar. I might have to spend some time learning something (!) and make the switch, if the hangup is actually on my end and continues.
1115. sar2401
Quoting 1112. LAbonbon:


I still say Brownsville's not off the table. Even the TX/Mex border is possible. So hard to tell with these weak systems.
1116. sar2401
Quoting 1114. LAbonbon:


Speaking of stuck, remember the other day when you suggested changing DNS to google so there wouldn't be accessibility issues for NWS sites...and I said, 'nah, too complicated'?

Well, the last couple of days I've been unable to access the MODIS site, and I'm wondering if it's something similar. I might have to spend some time learning something (!) and make the switch, if the hangup is actually on my end and continues.
It probably is. The NHC and NWS were the biggest problem but any .gov site could be an issue. Some ISP's are really careful about displaying a site claiming to be a .gov site unless all their internal markers match up to what the ISP's DNS thinks it should be. If not, it just errors out. Really, it's not difficult at all changing to the Google public DNS servers. Set a restore point (I'm assuming you're using Windows) before you start so you can go back if you really fat finger something. It's really just about impossible to do any damage changing the DNS. The Google public server not only handles .gov site better but it's much faster than my Roadrunner DNS ever was. C'mon, Bonnie, you can do it. I did it, and I'm a moron. :-)
1117. dolig
Quoting 1115. sar2401:

I still say Brownsville's not off the table. Even the TX/Mex border is possible. So hard to tell with these weak systems.

I'm in Brownsville north side and could use 5-7" of rain....bring it on!!!!
1118. sar2401
Quoting 1117. dolig:

I'm in Brownsville north side and could use 5-7" of rain....bring it on!!!!
Yeah, I know you guys down there have been dry compared to further up the coast. Having 91L go into Brownsville would be a good outcome as long as it stay something like a 45 MPH TS. It's possible but, like I wrote earlier, predicting landfall for these weak storms is the kind of thing that makes forecasters crazy.
Quoting 1115. sar2401:

I still say Brownsville's not off the table. Even the TX/Mex border is possible. So hard to tell with these weak systems.

Isn't Brownsville pretty much the same as the TX/MX border? The last 48-hr surface analysis forecast had the low hitting closer to Corpus Christi than Houston. The next one is due out in about a half hour, but I'm starting to fade. (Thank goodness...insomnia sucks)

Quoting 1116. sar2401:

It probably is. The NHC and NWS were the biggest problem but any .gov site could be an issue. Some ISP's are really careful about displaying a site claiming to be a .gov site unless all their internal markers match up to what the ISP's DNS thinks it should be. If not, it just errors out. Really, it's not difficult at all changing to the Google public DNS servers. Set a restore point (I'm assuming you're using Windows) before you start so you can go back if you really fat finger something. It's really just about impossible to do any damage changing the DNS. The Google public server not only handles .gov site better but it's much faster than my Roadrunner DNS ever was. C'mon, Bonnie, you can do it. I did it, and I'm a moron. :-)

Thanks for the encouragement, sar. I'll let you know if/when I decide to bite the bullet. And what do you mean, you're a moron? You clearly state in post #1110 that you're not a moron ;)

On that note, I'm going to try to get some shut eye. Good night, all.
1120. vis0
%u2665
Quoting 1020. DeepSeaRising:



My delusional optimism will not be dampened by your practical realism :). It's not padding the numbers, these are real storms. But yes, strengthening El-Nino should make this a slow season. "Should" being the key word. Out of season El-Nino's are not the norm and we don't have many comparisons. Gulf will the most likely spot for above average activity. MDR is going to produce maybe five storms this year. Who knows though, with sea surface temps being what they are in the NE, we could have another Long Island Express like back in 38'. As a whole you are right, this is no sign of an above average season at this point. Think every expert at the centers that give projections would wholly agree with you.
I was using that "padding" metaphorically .,.... lol ... personally I'm expecting more of and average than below average season, but I'm not basing that expectation on the early season activity. I'd prolly worry a bit more if we start to see storms out of the MDR between now and the end of July ... however looking at the sat imagery from W Africa, it doesn't look like there's even much of a wave train out there right now, i.e. nothing unusual to make me think better than average storm activity. So far it is looking rather different than 10 years ago ... hopefully it stays that way ....




Station 42001
NDBC
Location: 25.888N 89.658W
Date: Mon, 15 Jun 2015 06:50:00 UTC

Winds: ESE (120°) at 27.2 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 13.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.4 F
Dew Point: 74.5 F
Water Temperature: 82.2 F

Data from buoy 180 nm south of Southwest Pass, Mississippi River.(NE quadrant of 91-L)
1123. vis0

SAR2401 warning i'm using "out of this world" words, get a power nap NOW!

Now that Sar2401s asleep someone use a marker and dot his shirt so it appears as if many fleas are on it...shhh.. read ahead...

here my 22 zents (Z?, alien pennies :- P),

THE FOLLOWING MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL, think of it as an interesting SciFic read.
("so whats new" - sez Trembling A-cappella Zippydoodaist)

as i posted in a VID yesterday how as with ANA 2015 formed from 2 areas, the cloud mass came from a trough coming down from Texas/La. but also
a pTwF coming off Africa that broke into 2 parts.
In front the upper level trigger and in the rear the lower level trigger for creating a stacked circulation as what became ANA met together near Cayman.

In the aforementioned link/VID i pointed out how you see INVEST 91L's main clouds cover from Central America moving northward (seen in the last frames) and the 2 rotating triggers are pointed by arrows. Upper level trigger you see zipping just under Cuba and lower level trigger trying to build upward in the first few frames but since its upper lever trigger was hundreds of miles to the east all we see are 2 puffs, 2 times where the ORANGE arrow is pointing to and those puffs dying off as there was no upper level rotating trigger to wrap those plumes and begin the formation known as a TS.

. Sadly i did a bad job of editing and cut out the lower level as it streaked Venezuela's northern coast and entered the Yucatan P. ~20 hrs after the upper level passed north of Yucatan P.

As long as these triggers are not into a SECOND rotating phase the do not degauss from their original rotating phase which was as they came off land over the Eastern Atlantic. This "magnetizing" (if i may call it that as the real term is not yet discovered) is done as clouds go from land to warmer waters and the change of direction / flow of the joining moisture causes a sub atomic change in the waters property, think of the change or forced change of direction in water vapour from land being more of a horizontal flow while its vertical flow is more determined by topography which is a "grounded to earth" property versus the Ocean waters when warn causing a more vertical flow a more NOT grounded to Earth property as clouds are not grounded to Earth (till lighting or static enters the picture) though clouds are not grounded to Ethereal world till...opps almost too much info. This change is as the car's battery completes the circuit to start parts of the cars engine/mechanisms to rotate when, before the car's ignition goes On, the battery juice is there but not "mixing" once ignition is created zzzzzzzip-boom ...oops connected the wrong wires.
When these rotating triggers met up with the trough's end it (trough whipping action) acts as a new rotating phase (or 2nd rotating phase for the triggers that came off Africa) and if the 2 join up then we have stacking.

Till then that blend within the new UNSTACKED rotation has 3 to 4 days to (re)couple, if not those triggers become degaussed and lose their ability to form a spinning warm core system, and are recycled or still have a chance is a sub tropical or xtra tropical formation forms.

At the present time 91L has the front end near the center of GoMx just north of BOC, while the lower level trigger ran into the Yucatan Peninsula and is just (201506150300UTC) exiting that peninsulas N/NNE edge. Since the upper trigger began rotating yesterday then there are a remaining 2 or 2.5 days for the lower level trigger to catch up.

Now since we are grounded within the physical dimension even if both triggers join up if wind sheer begins to rise then you'll see a more familiar look to a TD/TS but it will have sheer blowing off its upper level ans some will say, weird now its stronger more TS like but it doing this against stronger sheer...


WAKE UP SAR2401...

or as is more commonly stated we have to wait till the upper level clouds meets up with the lower level clouds and that seems to be happening somewhere N/NNW of Yucatan P. (do not say Yucatan P 3 times fast, Sun rays don't affect fluids in that manner) Now where 91L or any pTwF sends that moisture depends on the sheer & steering currents, lets take a few minutes to observe.

Here visX animation showing how 91L is doing if we had visible imagery at night::

http://youtu.be/lmpV5FEvFHg(592x468)





Bill? ...Heard of Hot Tamales and went to have some thinking their "heat" would build him up, Bill! its not that kind of (H2O) heat, so Bill is heading to find some refreshing warm sea water.

BTW small hail falling here 2nd Ave & 27th street twice 240AM & 302AM (EDT) for 30secs or the parrot 2 floor up is pecking at the grinded corn and its falling out his cage onto my parents AC unit.
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC MON JUN 15 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC MON JUN 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE JUN 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED JUN 17.

.WARNINGS.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
.LOW PRES NEAR 22.5N91W 1007 MB. WITHIN 270 NM NE QUADRANT E TO
SE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM
NE SEMICIRCLE E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF 23N87W.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
25N94W 1006 MB. WITHIN 270 NM NE QUADRANT E TO SE WINDS 30 TO 35
KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 390 NM NE SEMICIRCLE E TO
SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN
180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
26N95W 1005 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE E TO SE WINDS 30 TO
35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM NE SEMICIRCLE E
TO SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN
150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
27.5N96W 1005 MB. WITHIN 120 NM NE AND WITHIN 45 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM E AND WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF
CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS
WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
28.5N96.5W 1005 MB. WITHIN 150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE E TO SE WINDS 30
TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR CENTER.

If you plot these coordinates you get a landfall near Matagorda Bay( Port O'Connor, TX) and the worst winds and rain would affect areas to the North and Northeast of this point. (Houston, we may have a problem.....)
Quoting 1061. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Are your posts meant to be satirical, or do you enjoy hyping everything?
All of the above ....

Quoting 1077. sar2401:

Katrina was a hurricane long before it hit the Gulf. 91L is not going to be Katrina.
Agreed. However, it was a hell of a shocker for people in the central and NW Bahamas when it transitioned from a TD to Cat 1 hurricane pretty much right over our heads .... and we didn't even know there was anything out there ....

With the flooding potential still out there for numerous parts of TX, I could see a need for concern.

1126. vis0

Quoting 1123. vis0:


SAR2401 warning i'm using "out of this world" words, get a power nap NOW!

Now that Sar2401s asleep someone use a marker and dot his shirt so it appears as if many fleas are on it...shhh.. read ahead...

here my 22 zents (Z?, alien pennies :- P),

blah blah blah
yadda
yadda yadda


...Bill? i meant Carlos

Loop
Start playing when buffered ( Only Notify) -
% Smart Buffer
Estimated Time: Will start buffering when initialized.
Global Preferences
Jeez. After my super erudite posts, it's all anti climax ....

I need to get a couple hours of sleep, ya'll... will check in before I head out in the a.m. to see what's going on with our two systems.... seems that close proximity to land and slow movement is really sucking the life out of Carlos ....
1128. LargoFl
Hmmm.... is that some kind of outflow boundary???

1130. LargoFl
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015/

UPDATE...
REGIONAL MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS MARCHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS... STRETCHING FROM NEAR LUBBOCK TO
MARATHON... WITH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS PUSHING NORTH OF
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY... AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM NEAR GALVESTON BAY TO NEAR BUOY 019 PER SPC MESOANALYSIS WAS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. EVENING SOUNDINGS REPORTED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 2.06 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES AND 1.84 INCHES AT CORPUS
CHRISTI... AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK LIFT AT PLAY
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK OF CHANGES
MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST WERE FOR MARINE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY... WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

REGARDING THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
/A BROAD ELONGATED LOW LOCATED ROUGHLY SOUTH OF 22 N NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA/... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WITH THEIR 8
PM EDT/ 7 PM CDT UPDATE ASSIGNED AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
STILL AWAITING THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE... BUT GUIDANCE STILL HAS
TIMING AND PATH DIFFERENCES OF THE FORECAST FUTURE CYCLONE. THE
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY UNTIL A CENTER CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED/IDENTIFIED. WITH WEAKLY DEFINED... DEVELOPING SYSTEMS
THERE CAN BE MULTIPLE "CENTERS" THAT MODEL GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON...
WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO THESE DIFFERENCES CURRENTLY SEEN.

ADDITIONALLY... EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS /FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.5 TO 2.6 INCHES...
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS/ WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
THREAT LEADING TO FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WHILE
THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS ANALOGOUS TO LEVELS OBSERVED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ALLISON... THIS DISTURBANCE/ POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES NOT HAVE A BLOCKING HIGH TO IMPEDE ITS
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND MUST STILL OVERCOME DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEEDING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FEATURE.
SO DESPITE THE SIMILAR MOISTURE... THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES THAT INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE CAPABLE
OF WIDESPREAD 6 TO 8 INCH TOTALS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 10 INCHES AS OPPOSED TO ALLISON/S 30 TO 35 INCH RAIN
TOTALS. IT PRESENTLY APPEARS THAT A BETTER ANALOG TO THE
POTENTIAL RAIN EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE THE RECENT
MEMORIAL DAY FLOODING... ONLY ACROSS A LARGER AREA. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNTING HIGHER RAIN TOTALS HOWEVER IS
THE LATEST 00Z NAM SHOWING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME RESIDING
OVER THE REGION FOR A GOOD 24 HOURS... WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST RAIN TOTALS. SOUTHEAST TEXANS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST /ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS/ FOR
ANY CHANGES.

Sunday 10 PM CDT Discussion from Houston NWS
1132. vis0

Quoting 1058. sar2401:

Everything in the article looks true and on the up and up. Here's what concerns me about that site though -

"NewsDaily -- a service of the science news site ScienceDaily -- is an automated general news site featuring breaking stories from major news wires, newspapers, and other sources across the world."

These automated sites are prime targets for Russian trolls. If you haven't read the article Brian posted about this you should do so. This is an increasing issue in news gathering. The Russians will hit automated sites repeatedly with fake news articles in the hope some of them are picked up. There's at least one article there now in my quick read that I believe is a Russian troll article. I'll bet there are more. The Russians are experts at impersonating Reuters and AP dispatches. When I search Google using the story headline, it does show up on multiple sites as coming from Reuters. In this case, I assume those workers will still get paid and can do work onshore. I hope it won't be a burden on them, especially since the threat should be gone in two days. If nothing else, I always do a Google search to make sure an article is true when I am reading something at an automated news site. The Russians are at work 24 hours a day spreading lies on the internet.



next time you think a person posts some article that is not peer reviewed or without links showing the full article ask, Вы тролль
Looks more like corpus now
Looks more like corpus now
hmmm looks like some convection starting to work around to the west.
I'm surprised Dr Masters has yet to update his blog.
1141. MahFL
Quoting 1138. tampabaymatt:




That looks really bad for areas that recently flooded or are still in flood.
Also TWC just said 91L could intensify over Texas as the land is so wet.
Quoting 1141. MahFL:



That looks really bad for areas that recently flooded or are still in flood.
Also TWC just said 91L could intensify over Texas as the land is so wet.

It's been dry for over a week...It's definitely not wet enough.
16 year old boy loses arm, 14 year old girl loses part of arm and might need leg amputation after shark attacks 90 minutes apart in Oak Island, NC yesterday. Cruel since it was so hot and the water was likely full of beachgoers cooling off but the risks we take.
HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC MON JUN 15 2015

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC MON JUN 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC TUE JUN 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC WED JUN 17.

.WARNINGS.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
.LOW PRES NEAR 23N92.5W 1007 MB MOVING NW AT 12 KT. BETWEEN 90
NM AND 240 NM NE QUADRANT E TO SE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO
17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W
AND 92W.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
25N94W 1007 MB. BETWEEN 120 NM AND 240 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 30
TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
26.5N96W 1007 MB. BETWEEN 60 NM AND 150 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 30
TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
27.5N97W 1006 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INLAND
NEAR 28N97.5W 1007 MB. N OF 26N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W SE TO S
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INLAND
NEAR 30N98W 1008 MB. N OF 27N W OF 94W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.

Worst of it still well NE of COC....Beginning to doubt this will ever organize.
1145. LargoFl
well 91 looks like it will be a good rainmaker with some good wind for texas,right now even if it goes to TS for awhile,probably wont stay that strong for very long, not the way it looks today..
1146. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
524 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>23 8-161300-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUS TIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING ...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON... COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TO MBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
524 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...INCREASING RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
COULD LEAD TO A DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST AND THEN OFF TO THE NORTH. IF
EVERYTHING LINES UP CORRECTLY...RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA COULD APPROACH A 5 TO 7 INCH RANGE WITH SOME AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 10 INCHES WHERE ANY TYPE OF TRAINING SETS UP. RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS HIGH WILL LEAD TO FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED.
BEGINNING TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE...THERE COULD BE AN INCREASING
RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS AND TORNADOES. ALONG THE BEACHES...EXPECT ELEVATED
TIDE LEVELS AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
Quoting 1141. MahFL:



That looks really bad for areas that recently flooded or are still in flood.
Also TWC just said 91L could intensify over Texas as the land is so wet.


Thanks for the maps, In Indiana it is suppose to rain all week long, with that said, when 91L comes to visit, the ground will be saturated, and flooding will occur for several States in the Midwest early next week!
1148. LargoFl
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF BRING THE 500MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY. THERE
ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS
OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL LOW AT LANDFALL...ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TX TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH TUES NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
IF THE LOW TRACK FARTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHER FURTHER INLAND WITH A GREATER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH TX
THURSDAY AS RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND MAINLY FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF PROGS AN INVERTED 500MB TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TX TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THIS MAY ENHANCE SEABREEZE CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
430 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE
TO RISE AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER (AS OF 1 AM THIS MORNING) CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM HAS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR TROPICAL STORM BILL IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT BEGINS ITS APPROACH TO THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES
ON INLAND. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL FORECASTED BY THE MODELS
TO RISE ABOVE 2.50 INCHES...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. WITH
THE SYSTEM STILL ORGANIZING AND SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SEVERAL DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS ON ITS SPEED/STRENGTH/TIMING...IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
WHAT SPOTS WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR WIDESPREAD 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND SOME SPOTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE TOTALS
>10 INCHES WHERE THE BEST TRAINING SETS UP. WITH THE IDEA THAT THE AREA
CAN HANDLE THIS MORNING`S AND THIS AFTERNOOM`S RAINS...WILL PLAN ON
HAVING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...THERE COULD BE AN
INCREASING RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES NEAR THE COAST BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AS OUR AREA BECOMES SITUATED IN THE RIGHT-FRONT QUADRANT OF
THE SYSTEM. 42
&&

.MARINE...
TODAY`S HURRICANE RECON FLIGHTS WILL DETERMINE WHAT BECOMES OF THE
WEAK SOUTHERN GULF CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MARITIME INTERESTS NEED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. TODAY`S WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM 15-20 KNOTS EAST-
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING TO 20-30 KNOT SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEAST FEEDER BANDS CONTAINING HEAVY
RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ROTATE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL QUICKLY BECOME AMPLIFIED IN AND AROUND MARITIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SEAS WILL HEIGHTEN FROM THIS MORNING`S 5 TO 6 FEET NEARSHORE / 7
TO 8 OFFSHORE TO 7 TO 8 FEET NEARSHORE / 7 TO OVER 10 FEET OFFSHORE
BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHEST OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL NEAR 15 FEET
TUESDAY MORNING. WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND THE SWELL PROPAGATED BY
THIS LONG DURATION SOUTHEAST FETCH MAY STRENGTHEN RIP CURRENTS AND
PUSH TIDAL LEVELS TO BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET FEET DURING HIGH TIDE
TIMES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. 31

Not much change to 91-L overnight. Gale force winds and 10-15 ft seas are well NE of the COC.
1150. MahFL
91L is actually pretty moist.

Quoting 1140. LPStormspotter:

I'm surprised Dr Masters has yet to update his blog.



dr m will update his blog when it is time too do so and when he is ready too do so
1152. LargoFl
Quoting 1151. Tazmanian:




dr m will update his blog when it is time too do so and when he is ready too do so


That was a statement, not a question.
ABNT20 KNHC 151148
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity with the broad area of low pressure in the
south-central Gulf of Mexico has become a little more concentrated
this morning. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is just now beginning its
investigation of the system, and will help to determine whether the
low-level circulation has become any better defined since yesterday.
Satellite observations overnight suggest that the low continues to
produce tropical-storm-force winds well to the east and northeast of
the center. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable
for development while this system moves northwestward across the
western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
could form at any time before the system reaches the Texas coast
sometime tomorrow.

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday. The system is also likely to bring
heavy rainfall with possible flooding across portions of eastern
Texas and western Louisiana. For additional information, please see
High Seas Forecasts and products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
1155. Kenfa03
Quoting 1151. Tazmanian:




dr m will update his blog when it is time too do so and when he is ready too do so
Good point.
how come W pac is so inactive, I know that June is not one of the peak months but after that impressive start it s been quiet for quite some time, shouldn t this mean the basin should become active soon!?

91L is looking better this morning. I would expect declaration soon.
1159. HarryMc
Quoting 1157. HurricaneAndre:

91L is looking better this morning. I would expect declaration soon.

Watching GOES IR scan it's interesting how quickly it's closing in.
Quoting 1157. HurricaneAndre:

91L is looking better this morning. I would expect declaration soon.



no closed low no declaration so will wait and see what they find out there this AM
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 12m12 minutes ago
1st pass from recon shows more character than ystdy - need all the data before knowing anything tho #AL91 #91L

Good Morning.  Looking at the big picture with the overall movement of 91L, it is telegraphing a move towards the NW closer to the TX/LA area.  Just have to see how much rain it can muster before coming onshore.  Here is the current shear per CIMMS: the shear is going to keep it in check in terms of development beyond a tropical storm it seems:







1165. LargoFl
no chance this somehow makes a right hand turn into the Panhandle of florida huh??
1166. LargoFl
Quoting 1165. LargoFl:

no chance this somehow makes a right hand turn into the Panhandle of florida huh??


No; the high pressure ridge is firmly in place over North Florida and and the SE steering the disturbance around it towards Texas.


Quoting 1113. sar2401:

Well, no, that's not what you said. This is what you said. There's no need to try to make yourself look right. It's really not that important, and it lowers your credibility.

1081. wunderkidcayman
12:53 AM CDT on June 15, 2015
0
I say 91L % on new TWO will go up maybe 90%/90% or 90%/100% or something of the sort
and I would expect either TD 2 or TS Bill by 5am maybe 11am the absolute latest


Oh Sar you need to read

Quoting 1081. wunderkidcayman:

I say 91L % on new TWO will go up maybe 90%/90% or 90%/100% or something of the sort
and I would expect either TD 2 or TS Bill by 5am maybe 11am the absolute latest

(Btw I still believe this will still play out)
Quoting 1089. wunderkidcayman:



oh fine if you want technical
90%/Near 100%

or maybe it just may stay 80%/80%
Quoting 1091. wunderkidcayman:

oh look its 80%/80%
not too surprised there
low level isn't perfect yet
and convection does need to build up some more
Quoting 1107. wunderkidcayman:



well I expected one of either 2 outcomes

#1 (90%/90% or 90%/ near 100%) NHC would bump up % because low level had organized more that it had before and and increase in convection would invoke an advisory
#2 (80%/80%) NHC would leave the % as it is due to lower convection than earlier and even though low levels have become more organized it it needs to get even more organized before they bump it up then if more convection and organization continues this would invoke advisory

seems NHC took outcome #2 basically

anyway I'm out for a few hrs


This is what I said

Anyway that doesn't matter so much now
Now we wait to see what RECON shows
Quoting 1071. sar2401:

I'm glad to hear that, although "some kind of low out in the Gulf" doesn't have the same impact as "Tropical Storm Bill !!!!" :-)

91L's response to your statement :)

91L looks to be wrapping convection, though still seems tangled with mid/upper low. I'll check again after work!
RECON about to do a penetration
Quoting 1156. NoobDave:

how come W pac is so inactive, I know that June is not one of the peak months but after that impressive start it s been quiet for quite some time, shouldn t this mean the basin should become active soon!?




El-Nino circulation kicking in along with a strong MJO pulse coming across should kick off 2 to 3 systems across the W-Pac the next few weeks. The SOI drop that is about to happen appears significant and long lasting this time around.

A 1020 high squarely over Indonesia with very low pressure across the Central & E-Pac means this El-Nino is about to really kick into high gear.

87 degrees at 8:30 AM and a dew point of 80, supposed to hit 94 today and 96 tomorrow.



Quoting 1170. wunderkidcayman:

RECON about to do a penetration
What's a penetration.
Quoting 1165. LargoFl:

no chance this somehow makes a right hand turn into the Panhandle of florida huh??


No - ridge of high pressure is in place over the SE.
hot off the press

this weeks # the CPC will uesd in there update


10JUN2015 25.7 2.6 28.1 1.5 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1

Nino1+2 2.6

Nino3 1.5

Nino34 1.3

Nino4 1.1
1176. WxLogic
Good Morning
Quoting 1173. HurricaneAndre:

What's a penetration.
I think it means to punch the core, at least in the Meteorological sense.

91L looking good this morning, should become Tropical Storm Bill later today.

Quoting 1177. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I think it means to punch the core, at least in the Meteorological sense.

91L looking good this morning, should become Tropical Storm Bill later today.


Thanks Caleb. I expect that it's Bill now.
Quoting 1177. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I think it means to punch the core, at least in the Meteorological sense.

91L looking good this morning, should become Tropical Storm Bill later today.





91L is looking march more Tropical then it was on sunday when it had a more sub Tropical look too it
Quoting 1173. HurricaneAndre:

What's a penetration.




But seriously, he's saying the HH are investigating 91L now
91L INVEST 150615 1200 24.3N 92.7W ATL 35 1006
Quoting 1178. HurricaneAndre:

Thanks Caleb. I expect that it's Bill now.


it still needs too closed off the low be for it can be come a name storm
For any newcomers the tropicalatlantic page is a good resource for Recon information.
poor Carlos seem like the up welling is really takeing a toll on carlos in fact the storm may even be DISSIPATEING has we peak
i think when recon gos in too Carlos they will find a vary weak TS or even a TD i wounder if the low is even closed any more on carlos
Quoting 1181. Tropicsweatherpr:

91L INVEST 150615 1200 24.3N 92.7W ATL 35 1006
Crap.
I think we have Bill. 
post 1186 there no need for that
June update on the Euro has a complete shutdown across the MDR during the peak of hurricane season as El-Nino becomes a powerhouse.

June Update for the Euro



Quoting 1187. TCweatherman:

I think we have Bill. 
Me too TC, don't know what's the holdup.
From Eric Blake.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 39m39 minutes ago
June @ECMWF fcsts strong #ElNino along with cool Atlantic SSTs & near-record high pressures. Similar to CFS. #climate
Quoting 1192. StormTrackerScott:

From Eric Blake.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 39m39 minutes ago
June @ECMWF fcsts strong #ElNino along with cool Atlantic SSTs & near-record high pressures. Similar to CFS. #climate



see post 1175
They want evidence. 
Quoting 1191. HurricaneAndre:

Me too TC, don't know what's the holdup.

Nino 1&2 up to 2.4C
Nino 3 up to 1.6C
Nino 3.4 up to 1.3C
Nino 4 up to 1.1C


Wow!! Very similar to 1997 so far.
2015



1997
Quoting 1189. StormTrackerScott:
June update on the Euro has a complete shutdown across the MDR during the peak of hurricane season as El-Nino becomes a powerhouse.

June Update for the Euro





With the MDR out of action we will see 'locally grown' systems that can affect us.
Quoting 1196. rmbjoe1954:



With the MDR out of action we will see 'locally grown' systems that can affect us.


More concerned this year because of that actually. Could be more dangerous than years passed.
Good morning all. As ragged as 91L looks, one of the models shown on local weather this morning shows the central/east side of my county(Brazoria) Galveston County, and parts of Harris upwards of 16 plus inches of rain. Guess we will see what all happens.
Quoting 1195. StormTrackerScott:

Nino 1&2 up to 2.4C
Nino 3 up to 1.6C
Nino 3.4 up to 1.3C
Nino 4 up to 1.1C


Wow!! Very similar to 1997 so far.
2015



1997



the CPC has it up too 1.5 for nino 3 and 2.6 for nino 1 and 2 see post 1175
Quoting 1186. HurricaneAndre:

Crap.

Does this indicate the likely direction, or just that it's getting closer? Thanks!
I say this El Niño will peak near or at or just very slightly above 1.5 then we should see a nice steady fall into neutral with the fall starting around Sep if not a bit earlier

So big "Scott's" El Niño not gonna happen

You know what guys I think we should change the name for the strong or super Armageddon El Niño to Scott's El Niño
Quoting 1199. Tazmanian:



the CPC has it up too 1.5 for nino 3 and 2.6 for nino 1 and 2 see post 1175


Text on Bom site had lower for Nino 1&2 but higher for Nino 3. Those numbers are unofficial until the CPC comes out with the update. Either way very impressive!
Quoting 1175. Tazmanian:

hot off the press

this weeks # the CPC will uesd in there update


10JUN2015 25.7 2.6 28.1 1.5 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1

Nino1+2 2.6

Nino3 1.5

Nino34 1.3

Nino4 1.1


Thanks Taz!
Quoting 1199. Tazmanian:



the CPC has it up too 1.5 for nino 3 and 2.6 for nino 1 and 2 see post 1175


Oh my that just goes to show Scott wants his super Armageddon El Niño really bad he is change the numbers
Lol
40mph Invest, so once aircraft finds a closed circulation it's going automatically to Bill looks like. Means NHC is working on watches and warnings this morning, and NWS's are revising and adjusting accordingly to forecasts.
I do think we will see the low closed off today but not get much past the Tropical Discussion stage. It might get close to being a TS (And I think the NHC is kind of quick on the draw to name these systems but safer than sorry).

Someone is going to get a LOT of rain. Just depends how the bands line up. With this system that could be anywhere from the coastal bend to East Texas. We all are going to get rain, but someone is going to get a ton of rain that will cause some serious flooding.
Quoting 1205. RitaEvac:

40mph Invest, so once aircraft finds a closed circulation it's going automatically to Bill looks like. Means NHC is working on watches and warnings this morning, and NWS's are revising and adjusting accordingly to forecasts.


RECON has narrowed down where the LLC is they just missed it they should be turning back and get it this time
Also recon finding stronger winds too on NE side of the LLC
Quoting 1205. RitaEvac:

40mph Invest, so once aircraft finds a closed circulation it's going automatically to Bill looks like. Means NHC is working on watches and warnings this morning, and NWS's are revising and adjusting accordingly to forecasts.


Looks closed to me on the satellite loop. Link Warm water in the GOM, but maybe not enough time left for it to ramp up much? Wouldn't rule out a hurricane, though.

recon on the way too Carlos and Carlos is not looking really good i think the recon could find Carlos has a weak TS or even a TD they may even find that Carlos has opend up this AM that up welling has really took in a toll on this storm
Quoting 1188. Tazmanian:

post 1186 there no need for that
Why are you so puritanical? It seems as if every time someone posts an off-color word you either chide them for it or flag it.
Quoting 1200. AustinTXWeather:


Does this indicate the likely direction, or just that it's getting closer? Thanks!


Hey. I'm in Pflugerville over here. Once the hurricane hunters detect a closed center of circulation, this system will be named Bill. As it stands, a fair number of the models have the system making landfall in a location that would put the ATX area on the right-side of the storm which could mean a decent amount of precip for our area. We could see a potential training of cells come through the area similar to Hermine in 2010 depending on how fast the system remnants eject out of Texas. Stay tuned. On another note, Lake Travis is only 11 feet from capacity so this system might bring the level to near full.
1212. Patrap
1213. Patrap
1214. centex
Flash flood watch again in central Texas. Noticed something in NWS discussion this morning. "SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE SFC LOW MAY DEEPEN AS IT COMES INLAND AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH ALREADY OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD FURTHER ENHANCE LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND ELEVATE THE RAIN TOTALS EVEN MORE.
Looking at RECON, it's closed off according to the barbs and wind directions in WunderMap, plus the center is farther NW then last estimated location
Quoting 1214. centex:

Flash flood watch again in central Texas. Noticed something in NWS discussion this morning. "SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE SFC LOW MAY EEPEN AS IT COMES INLAND AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH ALREADY OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD FURTHER ENHANCE LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND ELEVATE THE RAIN TOTALS EVEN MORE.


FF watch currently stands until the 18th. That is one of the longest period FF watches I've seen in a while.
Quoting 1214. centex:

Flash flood watch again in central Texas. Noticed something in NWS discussion this morning. "SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE SFC LOW MAY DEEPEN AS IT COMES INLAND AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH ALREADY OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD FURTHER ENHANCE LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND ELEVATE THE RAIN TOTALS EVEN MORE.


Think of Hermine when an eye like feature passed over San Antonio, this thing will look better on satellite over TX than it will over the GOM, guaranteed. Seen these things plenty of times.

Quoting 1211. calkevin77:



Hey. I'm in Pflugerville over here. Once the hurricane hunters detect a closed center of circulation, this system will be named Bill. As it stands, a fair number of the models have the system making landfall in a location that would put the ATX area on the right-side of the storm which could mean a decent amount of precip for our area. We could see a potential training of cells come through the area similar to Hermine in 2010 depending on how fast the system remnants eject out of Texas. Stay tuned. On another note, Lake Travis is only 11 feet from capacity so this system might bring the level to near full.


Nice! I'm in Georgetown, watching what is likely now Bill very closely.

There was some flooding again yesterday with the downpours we had, going to be very interesting how this unfolds...
Quoting 1211. calkevin77:



Hey. I'n Pflugerville over here. Once the hurricane hunters detect a closed center of circulation, this system will be named Bill. As it stands, a fair number of the models have the system making landfall in a location that would put the ATX area on the right-side of the storm which could mean a decent amount of precip for our area. We could see a potential training of cells come through the area similar to Hermine in 2010 depending on how fast the system remnants eject out of Texas. Stay tuned. On another note, Lake Travis is only 11 feet from capacity so this system might bring the level to near full.


Thanks for the addl insight. We were just talking about Lake Travis this morning - sounds like there could be some positives for the area, within reason. I'm at staying tuned today. Lots of friends in Houston watching, too, so keeping an eye on our area, but especially for there.
Quoting 1218. tornadodude:



Nice! I'm in Georgetown, watching what is likely now Bill very closely.

There was some flooding again yesterday with the downpours we had, going to be very interesting how this unfolds...


Yeah we had some insane downpours yesterday. I was at Randalls in Round Rock when a cell came through and dumped about a half an inch in a 15 min period. The atmosphere this morning is saturated so once the day time heating fires up, I expect more of the same today. Having the ground saturated prior to a potential tropical system might be no bueno here.
Quoting 1218. tornadodude:



Nice! I'm in Georgetown, watching what is likely now Bill very closely.

There was some flooding again yesterday with the downpours we had, going to be very interesting how this unfolds...


Definitely been wet lately. I didn't realize Georgetown had flooding yesterday. Sounds like rain can be beneficial for some areas, but we are also a bit saturated. :)
So how's that wannabe WildBill the Monsoon this morning?
Oh. I see.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.


BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 23N91W THAT IS NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 23N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N90W INTO THE LOW CENTER THEN SW TO 20N94W. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N78W. GIVEN THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 15/0256 UTC INDICATED RETRIEVALS OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...

To quote the NHC in that TWO:
...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THIS WEEK.

According to the Norman mets, that sucker's gonna cause some flooding in Oklahoma also. Last tropical system to hit OK (I think) was 2010's Hermine - BTD - Before "The Drought."
Add: Been outbursts of downpours in OK the past week. Little severe, but not much. Of course, OK is not trying to keep up with Texas... :)
(bold added)
1223. Patrap
3:28:30Z 25.333N 91.133W 975.1 mb

(~ 28.80 inHg) 313 meters
(~ 1,027 feet) 1010.4 mb
(~ 29.84 inHg) - From 171° at 43 knots
(From the S at ~ 49.5 mph) 24.4°C
(~ 75.9°F) 22.6°C
(~ 72.7°F) 45 knots
(~ 51.8 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.6 mph) 4 mm/hr
(~ 0.16 in/hr) 35.4 knots (~ 40.7 mph)

Tropical Storm 82.2%


At 13:19:00Z (first observation), the observation was 319 statue miles (513 km) to the SSW (196°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
At 13:28:30Z (last observation), the observation was 328 statue miles (527 km) to the SSW (192°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Recon finding flt level 57.5MPH
Sfc 47.3MPH and 51.7MPH

So safe to say once they have a vortex fix we have a 45-50MPH TS
I don't think I like this prediction! But if it's gonna come-hope it's wimpy!
Quoting 1217. RitaEvac:



Think of Hermine when an eye like feature passed over San Antonio, this thing will look better on satellite over TX than it will over the GOM, guaranteed. Seen these things plenty of times.


Quoting 1221. AustinTXWeather:



Definitely been wet lately. I didn't realize Georgetown had flooding yesterday. Sounds like rain can be beneficial for some areas, but we are also a bit saturated. :)


I guess I was technically in Round Rock. haha Saw a house on fire from a lightning strike in Leander, too. Crazy.

Quoting 1220. calkevin77:



Yeah we had some insane downpours yesterday. I was at Randalls in Round Rock when a cell came through and dumped about a half an inch in a 15 min period. The atmosphere this morning is saturated so once the day time heating fires up, I expect more of the same today. Having the ground saturated prior to a potential tropical system might be no bueno here.


Just waiting... I'm sure there will be some insane totals somewhere in Texas
Quoting 1224. wunderkidcayman:

Recon finding flt level 57.5MPH
Sfc 47.3MPH and 51.7MPH

So safe to say once they have a vortex fix we have a 45-50MPH TS


Now we better hope it doesn't near 70mph as it comes ashore if it' nearing 50mph already
Updated 12z Best Track:

91L INVEST 150615 1200 24.5N 93.0W ATL 40 1006
1229. Patrap
T.C.F.W.
91L/INV/TS/B/XX
1231. Grothar
Some high storm tops rotating around a center

Howdy fellow Central Texans! Checking in here from Jollyville/NW Austin
Looking at visible loops....it's ramping up
1235. Grothar


60 hours

1236. centex
Quoting 1220. calkevin77:



Yeah we had some insane downpours yesterday. I was at Randalls in Round Rock when a cell came through and dumped about a half an inch in a 15 min period. The atmosphere this morning is saturated so once the day time heating fires up, I expect more of the same today. Having the ground saturated prior to a potential tropical system might be no bueno here.
Yea the rain rates have been impressive. Barely saved my pool in May, when we had multiple days of 2 inches than the main event. After a month of watches/warnings we got tired. Weather radio, phones waking you up every night. Even heard some terms I've not heard before, like land Spout.
now that RECON has narrowed down the LLCOC they are now turned directly for it we should have a vortex fix shortly

I expect a STWO to be issued shortly with advisory to come around 10am
1238. Patrap
1239. JRRP
1240. Dakster
Quoting 1205. RitaEvac:

40mph Invest, so once aircraft finds a closed circulation it's going automatically to Bill looks like. Means NHC is working on watches and warnings this morning, and NWS's are revising and adjusting accordingly to forecasts.


What's the latest in terms of track and strength? Still a Texas T.S.?
NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic 20m20 minutes ago
Reconnaissance reports indicate low in the Gulf does not yet have a well-defined circulation center. Mission will continue…
Quoting 1227. RitaEvac:



Now we better hope it doesn't near 70mph as it comes ashore if it' nearing 50mph already


I would be very impressed if it makes it as a Hurricane
1243. Grothar
1244. aquak9
g'mornin' peepz

is that TEAL-72 out there?
1245. K8eCane
ATTENTION! Never Underestimate The Power Of A Tropical System
1246. MahFL
Some colder cloudtops in the center. ( the white spot ).

1247. Grothar
Quoting 1239. JRRP:




Strong negative SOI about to take place and last thru the rest of June as very high pressures set up over Australia with very low pressures over the Central Pacific. This could also yield a significant WWB too.
Quoting 1224. wunderkidcayman:

Recon finding flt level 57.5MPH
Sfc 47.3MPH and 51.7MPH

So safe to say once they have a vortex fix we have a 45-50MPH TS
IF there's a low level circulation. "Relatively strong pressure gradients" causing gale force winds according to this morning's TWO.
Quoting 1239. JRRP:




oh wow lol why am I not surprised
Quoting 1240. Dakster:



What's the latest in terms of track and strength? Still a Texas T.S.?


Likely, still central TX coast give or take, should be weak, but if it's nearing 50mph already anything more than that "aint" that weak.
Quoting 1241. StormTrackerScott:

NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic 20m20 minutes ago
Reconnaissance reports indicate low in the Gulf does not yet have a well-defined circulation center. Mission will continue…



yeah that's because RECON hasn't hit the center yet
Quoting 1236. centex:

Yea the rain rates have been impressive. Barely saved my pool in May, when we had multiple days of 2 inches than the main event. After a month of watches/warnings we got tired. Weather radio, phones waking you up every night. Even heard some terms I've not heard before, like land Spout.


Yeah I hear ya. We had six tornado warnings in Travis County over a three day period during the last go-around, so needless to say I built out new shelving in the garage to free up space in our "under the stairs" innermost closet. I still have yet to see thundersnow someday, so when I do, I think I will have seen it all :)

Doesn't matter if there isn't a closed low or not, still 40-50mph winds within the squalls, which "equates to= tropical storm conditions"
1255. hydrus
Quoting 1251. RitaEvac:



Likely, still central TX coast give or take, should be weak, but if it's nearing 50mph already anything more that aint that weak.


I wouldn't worry too much about the winds as those will be minimal but what is concerning is the heavy rain potential as 5" to 10" could fall in some places.
Quoting 1244. aquak9:

g'mornin' peepz

is that TEAL-72 out there?



RMK AF301 02BBA INVEST
1258. 900MB
Quoting 1199. Tazmanian:



the CPC has it up too 1.5 for nino 3 and 2.6 for nino 1 and 2 see post 1175


Odd part is that US Atlantic coast way warmer!
Per my conversation with the Hunters last year when they flew into Tallahassee, they noted that they are really good at finding or not finding a closed circulation (as they are the ones actually there and based upon experience) but that they are often asked by NHC to fly back in for another pass or two to a different coordinate where NHC thinks they might find a closed circ. NHC has to advantage of the on-site recon,  before the Hunters have to fly back due to fuel limitations, so that they can initiate the appropriate watches and help reload the models with a good initiation point.
Quoting 1253. calkevin77:



Yeah I hear ya. We had six tornado warnings in Travis County over a three day period during the last go-around, so needless to say I built out new shelving in the garage to free up space in our "under the stairs" innermost closet. I still have yet to see thundersnow someday, so when I do, I think I will have seen it all :)


Have you seen the Northern Lights red and purple when it's 60 below?
;)

Three tornado warning in four days in the sleepy central OK town where I live. Unusual. Had 24" of rain in 2 1/2 weeks. Yukon even had a tornado sighted. Yukon, Oklahoma that is.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 35m35 minutes ago Hudson, NH
Our 4km RPM is showing an organization of convection and lower surface pressures of #91L before landfall @WSI_Energy
1262. aquak9
Quoting 1257. nrtiwlnvragn:




RMK AF301 02BBA INVEST

YEAH!! That's my baby!!!

thank you northern eyewall-
1263. Patrap
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)

Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 13:49Z
Date: June 15, 2015
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 26
13:58:30Z 25.150N 92.200W 977.0 mb
(~ 28.85 inHg) 280 meters
(~ 919 feet) 1008.7 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 193° at 12 knots
(From the SSW at ~ 13.8 mph) 23.1°C*
(~ 73.6°F*) -* 12 knots
(~ 13.8 mph) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 22.0 knots (~ 25.3 mph)

183.3%

At 13:49:00Z (first observation), the observation was 352 statue miles (566 km) to the SSW (196°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

At 13:58:30Z (last observation), the observation was 334 statue miles (538 km) to the E (99°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
Quoting 1258. 900MB:



Odd part is that US Atlantic coast way warmer!


Comparison between now and 1997 is very interesting as SST's just about everywhere seem higher especially the North Atlantic. Climate change at work I guess.
1265. LargoFl
1266. LargoFl
Quoting 1264. StormTrackerScott:



Comparison between now and 1997 is very interesting as SST's just about everywhere seem higher especially the North Atlantic. Climate change at work I guess.
we need to stay alert for another Andrew like storm sneaking up on us this ..hmmm slow season huh
1267. Patrap
Quoting 1254. RitaEvac:

Doesn't matter if there isn't a closed low or not, still 40-50mph winds within the squalls, which "equates to= tropical storm conditions"
That's true. Probably what matters is... no name without a llc. And a narrower line of intense precip, maybe.
...
Interesting rainfall estimates, hydrus!
Thank you.
Quoting 1255. hydrus:


1270. Patrap
Slow Season?

2015 Is only 15 days old, and we have a 2nd entity that will likely be named. If we get another by July 6th, we will be right on pace with 2005.


If you check the available wx buoys , the strongest winds are still well E of 91-L.

Many locations off the LA coast have 25-30 knot winds due to pressure gradient

between 91-L and Atlantic High pressure. Seas at buoy in mid gulf peaked at 16 ft

earlier this morning.
Quoting 1262. aquak9:


YEAH!! That's my baby!!!

thank you northern eyewall-


TEAL numbers are not fixed to aircraft tail numbers. Yesterday AF308 flew as TEAL-71: Link

AF308 01BBA INVEST

Today AF308 flys as TEAL-75 Link

AF308 0103E CARLOS
1273. LargoFl
1274. LargoFl
Quoting 1270. Patrap:

Slow Season?

2015 Is only 15 days old, and we have a 2nd entity that will likely be named. If we get another by July 6th, we will be right on pace with 2005.





Good Lawd!
1276. Patrap
The Long range shows the overall circ coming over the Hill to the Beam site.

1277. 900MB
Quoting 1264. StormTrackerScott:



Comparison between now and 1997 is very interesting as SST's just about everywhere seem higher especially the North Atlantic. Climate change at work I guess.


I am worried about the East Coast with such a high positive anomaly.
1278. Patrap
Quoting 1275. RitaEvac:



Good Lawd!


Better than going with, "Huh"..

: )
looks like RECON missed the LLCOC again according to data LLCOC is now NW-NNW of where current aircraft is now
1280. Grothar
Nice wave entering the Caribbean. Very low latitude, though.

1281. Patrap
If the Storm tracks over that Western warm eddy in the Gulf, we could see some increased development there.

Sea Height Anomaly



1282. ncstorm
Good Morning..just a little local weather for my neck of the woods

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
2 hrs ·

The hottest weather since July 2012 is expected today. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 a.m. until 7 p.m. for the combination of heat and humidity.
low.amplitude.tw...leewards
1284. MahFL
Houston NWS has a Special Weather Statement out already :

"...INCREASING RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD
LEAD TO A DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS..."

Where can I find the RECON data in realtime?

Quoting 1279. wunderkidcayman:

looks like RECON missed the LLCOC again according to data LLCOC is now NW-NNW of where current aircraft is now
1286. MahFL
Quoting 1282. ncstorm:

Good Morning..just a little local weather for my neck of the woods

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
2 hrs ·

The hottest weather since July 2012 is expected today. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 a.m. until 7 p.m. for the combination of heat and humidity.


Here in NE Fl we don't get a heat advisory until it hits 108, going to be 105 today lol.
Quoting 1280. Grothar:

Nice wave entering the Caribbean. Very low latitude, though.




hmm not bad
1288. MahFL
Quoting 1279. wunderkidcayman:

looks like RECON missed the LLCOC again according to data LLCOC is now NW-NNW of where current aircraft is now


The HH don't miss anything, they know what they are doing.
1289. Patrap
Dvorak imagery shows not much in organization atm, but 3 rings and 2 lobes has the potential to evolve, as it seems to have been doing this am.

Its a big ballerina, and is going to take some time to bring them arms in and spin up.

But we still have 30-40 hrs till landfall.



1290. Torito
Quoting 1285. BossCane:

Where can I find the RECON data in realtime?




Try Here
Quoting 1285. BossCane:

Where can I find the RECON data in realtime?




do you have Google Earth
I'll give you the link
1292. Torito
1293. Patrap
14:18:30Z 25.050N 93.333W

975.4 mb

(~ 28.81 inHg) 297 meters
(~ 974 feet) 1009.0 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 345° at 9 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 10.4 mph) 24.1°C
(~ 75.4°F) 21.5°C
(~ 70.7°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) 0 knots*
(~ 0.0 mph*) 3 mm/hr*
(~ 0.12 in/hr*) - -

At 14:09:00Z (first observation), the observation was 299 statue miles (481 km) to the E (101°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.

At 14:18:30Z (last observation), the observation was 266 statue miles (428 km) to the ESE (103°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
Take care down there in Texas.
;)
1295. ncstorm
Quoting 1286. MahFL:



Here in NE Fl we don't get a heat advisory until it hits 108, going to be 105 today lol.


well I would think because you live in a tropical climate..
1296. Patrap
1297. LargoFl
gee these folks are really gonna get more flooding huh................FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
832 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Texas...

Guadalupe River At Victoria affecting Victoria County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

Guadalupe River Near Bloomington affecting Calhoun...Refugio and
Victoria Counties

.Recent rainfall over the area will keep the aforementioned
river above flood stage for the next few days.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, local TV and radio
stations, or cable TV outlets, for the latest weather
information, as additional rainfall could affect crest
forecasts.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our AHPS page at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=crp

&&
Quoting 1290. Torito:



Try Here


Yea thats the site I have been using. Seems to be a few minutes lag time.
Quoting 1285. BossCane:

Where can I find the RECON data in realtime?




Link

GE link is there
Quoting 1291. wunderkidcayman:



do you have Google Earth
I'll give you the link


Yes... send me the link please....
1301. Patrap
1303. LargoFl
1304. LargoFl
1305. LargoFl
At 1200 UTC, 15 June 2015, LOW INVEST (AL91) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 24.5°N and 93°W. The current intensity was 35 kt and the center was moving at 13 kt at a bearing of 315 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb.
Quoting 1280. Grothar:

Nice wave entering the Caribbean. Very low latitude, though.


some rains for pottery its been dry there
Quoting 1299. wunderkidcayman:



Link

GE link is there


Got it! Thanks!
1308. yoboi
Quoting 1270. Patrap:

Slow Season?

2015 Is only 15 days old, and we have a 2nd entity that will likely be named. If we get another by July 6th, we will be right on pace with 2005.





2005 comparison...mmmm yeah about those TPS reports...;-}
Irrespective of when the TD or TS is declared, the system has ramped up lots of t-storms and moisture this morning; if this keeps up all the way to landfall, it is going to be a a very wet system and big flooding threat inland.

1310. LargoFl
1311. aquak9
oh well...

Quoting 1306. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

some rains for pottery its been dry there


St Lucia needs a disturbance out there, they've missed this one as they're well north.
1313. LargoFl
well it seems to be moving quite fast,maybe wont have time to really get strong,but those folks in texas have a lot of rain coming,regardless of how strong the winds could be...gee a lot of flooding already before this even gets there..hopefully it will be a fast mover over land too.
Quoting 1288. MahFL:



The HH don't miss anything, they know what they are doing.


umm excuse me say what now

yes they do miss centers that's why they are out there to "find it " if that was the case a lot less time would be needed in the system and a lot less taxpayer dollars would be wasted
they don't know whats inside the storm until they go in it and the data is recorded
yes they know what to look for
yes they know what they are doing

anyway they will find it eventually
Quoting 1312. RitaEvac:



St Lucia needs a disturbance out there, they've missed this one as they're well north.


its pretty dry really to be honest

and dust is visible in this image well

or at least I see it anyway

looking at the updated RECON data
RECON had almost hit the jackpot near 25.100N 92.933W
according to data LLCOC is just slightly N of that
they caught the bottom half of the LLCOC
More favorable shear conditions closer to the coast of Texas:





Quoting 1315. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



its pretty dry really to be honest

and dust is visible in this image well

or at least I see it anyway




Saw it first hand, less than a month ago, it was really bad
Quoting 1287. wunderkidcayman:



hmm not bad
No surface reflection and once again, high shear. I would watch it when it moves into the SW Caribbean though.IF it makes it without being torn to shreds.
1320. K8eCane
Quoting 1316. wunderkidcayman:

looking at the updated RECON data
RECON had almost hit the jackpot near 25.100N 92.933W
according to data LLCOC is just slightly N of that
they caught the bottom half of the LLCOC


Is There Any Way You Can Transmit This To The HH So They Will Know?
And some proto-bands tying to form in the NW quadrant where shear is more favorable at the moment; it is moving towards better conditions:

1322. hydrus
Quoting 1270. Patrap:

Slow Season?

2015 Is only 15 days old, and we have a 2nd entity that will likely be named. If we get another by July 6th, we will be right on pace with 2005.



Yep...With a El-Nino too.....Anything can happen with the weather and the patterns......we could easily see an above average year, and I wouldnt be surprised about it.....i did go 9/4/2.....figuring the MDR wont produce, but the wave train is looking good already, and if they survive the trek across into the Caribbean, hurricanes will be comin chief.
1323. Dakster
Quoting 1286. MahFL:



Here in NE Fl we don't get a heat advisory until it hits 108, going to be 105 today lol.


About the same in Miami... And in Anchorage we get them when the air temp will hit 75F...

Surprisingly, the inside of your car can get to triple digits pretty quick and because the residents up there leave things like kids and animals in their car with the windows up and the motor off - which normally isn't an issue in the summer - at those temps it is still dangerous.

The opposite is true in Miami where we get cold weather warnings when temps hit the +40f's... Those don't start until we are expected to get sub zero temps in Anchorage and I bet it has to be forecasted to get lower than -40F or so in Fairbanks before those go out up there. We'll have to ask Levi about that, I only know about Anchorage.

Warnings/advisories should (and seem to be) for weather outside of the norm for the area and that you are normally prepared for.
Tropical Storm warnings for TX coast coming out shortly
1325. Patrap
Quoting 1319. stormwatcherCI:

No surface reflection and once again, high shear. I would watch it when it moves into the SW Caribbean though.IF it makes it without being torn to shreds.

Also high speed trade winds will not allow for much to spin up in the eastern carib.

1327. Patrap
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Wondering if the wording will include "poorly defined" or "ill-defined" in the next TWO.
1329. Patrap
Quoting 1324. RitaEvac:

Tropical Storm warnings for TX coast coming out shortly


UGH
Looking at NASA's visible loop, the clouds are in slow motion along the TX coast, but just offshore and all along Louisiana they are rapidly moving. Things about to change along the TX coast shortly as that rapid movement is coming ashore now. Windier conditions coming as the day progresses and well into the night.
1332. Patrap
Long Range 248 nm

nam 4km 12z hr 60 total precip

Quoting 1328. canehater1:

Wondering if the wording will include "poorly defined" or "ill-defined" in the next TWO.


Not sure, but the results will be the same none the less
1335. Patrap
NWS Houston disco, earlier

Previous discussion... /issued 430 am CDT Monday Jun 15 2015/ 

Discussion...
southeast Texas will continue to see periods of showers and thunderstorms
today...some with locally heavy rainfall...as moisture levels continue
to rise ahead of the Gulf of Mexico tropical disturbance. The National
Hurricane Center (as of 1 am this morning) continues to indicate this
system has a very good chance of organizing into a tropical depression
or Tropical Storm Bill in the next day or two. This system will bring
increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage to our area tonight through
Tuesday night as it begins its approach to the Texas coast and moves
on inland. With precipitable water values still forecasted by the models
to rise above 2.50 inches...parts of southeast Texas will have the potential
for periods of very heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. With
the system still organizing and several models showing several different
solutions on its speed/strength/timing...it remains difficult to pinpoint
what spots will receive the most rainfall. For now...will continue to
call for widespread 5 to 7 inch amounts today through the end of the
day on Wednesday...and some spots will have the potential to see totals
>10 inches where the best training sets up. With the idea that the area
can handle this morning's and this afternoom's rains...will plan on
having a Flash Flood Watch issued for the entire area with the afternoon
package. In addition to the heavy rainfall threat...there could be an
increasing risk for waterspouts/tornadoes near the coast beginning this
evening as our area becomes situated in the right-front quadrant of
the system. 42
Quoting 1294. Barefootontherocks:

Take care down there in Texas.
;)


Is the upside down longhorn a distress symbol, or is that longhorn doing a backstroke?
1337. ncstorm
Quoting 1320. K8eCane:



Is There Any Way You Can Transmit This To The HH So They Will Know?


they the ones who transmitted the data

they are flying back to that spot now
1339. ricderr
Slow Season?

2015 Is only 15 days old, and we have a 2nd entity that will likely be named. If we get another by July 6th, we will be right on pace with 2005.


well........not sure he gets a name...but it has certainly not started out dead as many believed it would be.......but i'm not trying to beat a dead horse here......

1340. Patrap
1341. Patrap
1342. etxwx

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
956 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 955 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER...
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 NM NORTHEAST OF VERMILION 26
TO NEAR EAST CAMERON 23 TO 7 NM NORTHEAST OF WEST CAMERON 248...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.
Quoting 1319. stormwatcherCI:

No surface reflection and once again, high shear. I would watch it when it moves into the SW Caribbean though.IF it makes it without being torn to shreds.


agreed
Quoting 1303. LargoFl:


1345. ricderr
another "not beating a dead horse topic".....the 30 day running SOI value....is at 0.74....once again at neutral/la nina values.....and to sound like a broken record......there's never been a strong el nino...when the SOI signal has been nuetral or even weak

1346. Patrap
Any chance of Bill pulling an Allison?
Are the steering currents showing anything similar to June 2001 where Allison did several days long loops over SE Texas?

91lvis.close.to.td
Almost wish recon had found a well-defined LLC so could watch how NHC classified it.
They've avoided like the plague mentioning the word "subtropical".
;)
I'd guess they're buying model guidance that either ULL weakens, 91L becomes detached from ULL and develops more under the up ridge influence to call it tropical before landfall.
Regardless, both Ana and whatever this becomes have had similar origins - a surface low reflection under an upper trof.
Quoting 1345. ricderr:

another "not beating a dead horse topic".....the 30 day running SOI value....is at 0.74....once again at neutral/la nina values.....and to sound like a broken record......there's never been a strong el nino...when the SOI signal has been nuetral or even weak




LOL! Well you won't like the next several weeks as strong negative values are about to take hold. Euro is showing sustained negative values some strongly negative starting in a few days lasting thru the end of June. Your broken record is just that BROKE!

Michael Ventrice@MJVentrice 16h16 hours ago Somerville, MA
SOI to drop back into the 1-2 standard deviation below average state next week.
1351. ricderr
as i watch the HH data flow and wonder about all things strange.....dare i say....in a warming world the weather acts differently.........the WWB's in the ENSO pacific....is in the midst of a two week vacation........are they coming back?....only our mother knows.....

1352. Patrap
The 91L Impact Clock has started....

Quoting 1347. oddspeed:

Any chance of Bill pulling an Allison?
Are the steering currents showing anything similar to June 2001 where Allison did several days long loops over SE Texas?


No as this will be moving right along. 10" of rain maybe more though not out of the question.
Quoting 1347. oddspeed:

Any chance of Bill pulling an Allison?
Are the steering currents showing anything similar to June 2001 where Allison did several days long loops over SE Texas?

Check out post #1131. Part of the discussion explains why that should not happen.
1355. Patrap
91L FunkTop loop

1356. ricderr


as we stay on the topic of westerly wind burst.......just a week ago...some of our prominent twitter el nino hypsters.....were touting an MJO pulse again in the west pacific region that would bump up the wind bursts......forecasts are saying....ooops..........fooled ya!!!!!

Quoting 1351. ricderr:

as i watch the HH data flow and wonder about all things strange.....dare i say....in a warming world the weather acts differently.........the WWB's in the ENSO pacific....is in the midst of a two week vacation........are they coming back?....only our mother knows.....




Wouldn't want to beat a dead horse on the head.

Updated last evening now 7C anomalies appearing.


Also your WWB is now beginning to show up come week 2
.
I see flood watches have now been posted. First small wave of rain s/sw of Lake Charles heading this way. Hunters are still out?
1359. Patrap
El Nino is a scam..
The data is fudged,
Those e-mails prove it,
Al gore....
Here you are Ric a image like this with extreme high pressure over Australia with low pressure over the C-Pac & E-Pac will favor westerlies across the Pacific especially next week. Pic speaks a thousand words

Euro
This system is actually between a rock and and hard-place in terms of any significant development; sandwiched between two ULL tutt cells and with high pressure on the right forcing it towards Texas. Again, a tropical storm at best at landfall but a significant flooding threat:

The squeeze play:


ULL Tutt Cells:
1362. Patrap
1363. ricderr



as we come out of the spring barrier for weather models....the most acurate of the CFSV2 model....is the PDF corrected......it's trending at a high of just a 1.8 C anomaly........(i'm sure the tri-monthly ONI values are understood by most)......now 1.8 if it lasts long enough and i'm not sure it will...but that would put us in strong territory.....i'll hold off judgement until the first of july once we exit the spring barrier
Quoting 1359. Patrap:

El Nino is a scam..
The data is fudged,
Those e-mails prove it,
Al gore....


Like Al Gore's "Green Movement" while he's using up $36,000 a month in utilities. From 2013
Quoting 1363. ricderr:

as we come out of the spring barrier for weather models....the most acurate of the CFSV2 model....is the PDF corrected......it's trending at a high of just a 1.8 C anomaly........(i'm sure the tri-monthly ONI values are understood by most)......now 1.8 if it lasts long enough and i'm not sure it will...but that would put us in strong territory.....i'll hold off judgement until the first of july once we exit the spring barrier


Spring Barrier ended with the end of May.
1366. ricderr
Also your WWB is now beginning to show up come week 2.


exactly scott....they took last week off....and are taking this week off....that's why i stated...their in the midst of a two week vacation......



LOL....let me help you....1 and 1....equal two...now quit bothering me...i'm enjoying the strangeness of this el nino....not only as it is impacting the atlantic tropical region...but others as well
1367. Patrap
1368. Gearsts
1369. yoboi
Quoting 1364. StormTrackerScott:



Like Al Gore's "Green Movement" while he's using up $36,000 a month in utilities. From 2013



typical from that crowd...
1370. Patrap
One can say climate change here without fear of reprimand or losing ones position.

..Fresca?

RECON almost got it
1372. sar2401
Quoting 1324. RitaEvac:

Tropical Storm warnings for TX coast coming out shortly
Where did you see this?
It looks like recon have found a center of circulation?



The westerlies/direction change are stronger and faster than the previous pass.
1374. sar2401
Quoting 1354. LAbonbon:


Check out post #1131. Part of the discussion explains why that should not happen.
Not as long as it's already 97 degrees here. The high pressure is well in command over the Southeast.
Quoting 1372. sar2401:

Where did you see this?


Local met in Houston
Quoting 1370. Patrap:

One can say climate change here without fear of reprimand or losing ones position.

..Fresca?




I agree but don't promote the Green Movement when you yourself aren't.
Historical formation locations for this week: right on track with this one.

 Tropical Cyclone Genesis Climatology
Quoting 1363. ricderr:




as we come out of the spring barrier for weather models....the most acurate of the CFSV2 model....is the PDF corrected......it's trending at a high of just a 1.8 C anomaly........(i'm sure the tri-monthly ONI values are understood by most)......now 1.8 if it lasts long enough and i'm not sure it will...but that would put us in strong territory.....i'll hold off judgement until the first of july once we exit the spring barrier


agreed
but
I say peaks near 1.5 or maybe just a small bit higher than 1.5 and that's it its to drop off from there
1379. Patrap
IR un enhanced



Quoting 1375. RitaEvac:



Local met in Houston


Local met in Houston needs to keep his day job and stop trying to be the NHC as there is no Bill yet.
1381. Patrap
Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile-124 nm range

Houston/Galveston





It appears, though still slightly ill defined, that we have a closed circulation. Recon is making a second pass to confirm, but it appears we may have ourselves the second named storm of the season. It wasn't a clean pass so recon has to make sure this circulation has a closed northern semicircle.
Quoting 1373. Envoirment:

It looks like recon have found a center of circulation?



The westerlies/direction change are stronger and faster than the previous pass.

yep nearly there
1384. sar2401
Quoting 1349. DocNDswamp:

Almost wish recon had found a well-defined LLC so could watch how NHC classified it.
They've avoided like the plague mentioning the word "subtropical".
;)
I'd guess they're buying model guidance that either ULL weakens, 91L becomes detached from ULL and develops more under the up ridge influence to call it tropical before landfall.
Regardless, both Ana and whatever this becomes have had similar origins - a surface low reflection under an upper trof.

Almost looks more like a 1000 mile long squall line than a tropical storm.

Quoting 1382. TylerStanfield:

It appears, though still slightly ill defined, that we have a closed circulation. Recon is make a second pass to confirm, but it appears we may have ourselves the second named storm of the season. It wasn't a clean pass so recon has to make sure this circulation has a closed northern semicircle.



yep
Will note (once declared and as noted by Pat earlier) that we have a climatological average of 1.72 Atlantic storms for the months of June-July; as such, we will be ahead of the averages this year.

However, the most important thing to note is that there is NO reliable correlation between what happens in June-July, and what then happens during the peak period. Would be interesting to see if we squeeze out another one in July or not.
Quoting 1380. StormTrackerScott:



Local met in Houston needs to keep his day job and stop trying to be the NHC as there is no Bill yet.


Watch what happens
1388. sar2401
Quoting 1375. RitaEvac:



Local met in Houston
Seems like TS warnings come from the NHC rather than a local met.
1389. Patrap



15:18:30Z 25.750N 92.217W

975.1 mb

(~ 28.80 inHg) 291 meters
(~ 955 feet) 1008.4 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 168° at 38 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 43.7 mph) 21.8°C
(~ 71.2°F) 21.8°C
(~ 71.2°F) 39 knots
(~ 44.9 mph) 37 knots
(~ 42.6 mph) 13 mm/hr
(~ 0.51 in/hr) 36.1 knots (~ 41.5 mph)

Tropical Storm 94.9%


At 15:09:00Z (first observation), the observation was 310 statue miles (499 km) to the E (96°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.

At 15:18:30Z (last observation), the observation was 320 statue miles (516 km) to the SSW (204°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
If that ends up being the LCC then the models will likely shift further to the North onto the upper Texas coastline.
Recon has found a well-defined and closed center in association with 91L.

RECON is nearly nearly there now
1393. MahFL
Quoting 1309. weathermanwannabe:

Irrespective of when the TD or TS is declared, the system has ramped up lots of t-storms and moisture this morning; if this keeps up all the way to landfall, it is going to be a a very wet system and big flooding threat inland.




TWC said it would keep intensifying after land fall.
Anyone else having difficulties w/ the site this morning? The page never finishes loading, so I can't refresh. Keep having to close and re-open. I switched from 200 posts/page to 50, but it's still happening.
1395. hydrus
Quoting 1339. ricderr:

Slow Season?

2015 Is only 15 days old, and we have a 2nd entity that will likely be named. If we get another by July 6th, we will be right on pace with 2005.


well........not sure he gets a name...but it has certainly not started out dead as many believed it would be.......but i'm not trying to beat a dead horse here......


That looks like Pokey...Gumbi fans will not be happy...
1396. Gearsts
Quoting 1356. ricderr:



as we stay on the topic of westerly wind burst.......just a week ago...some of our prominent twitter el nino hypsters.....were touting an MJO pulse again in the west pacific region that would bump up the wind bursts......forecasts are saying....ooops..........fooled ya!!!!!


1397. sar2401
Quoting 1394. LAbonbon:

Anyone else having difficulties w/ the site this morning? The page never finishes loading, so I can't refresh. Keep having to close and re-open. I switched from 200 posts/page to 50, but it's still happening.
I'm OK at 50 but 200 will lock it up every time.
1398. HarryMc
Quoting 1394. LAbonbon:

Anyone else having difficulties w/ the site this morning? The page never finishes loading, so I can't refresh. Keep having to close and re-open. I switched from 200 posts/page to 50, but it's still happening.


Me too. Looks like probably a lot of people linking scan graphics that use up a lot of bandwidth
Quoting 1392. wunderkidcayman:

RECON is nearly nearly there now


The suspense is killing me, What is the verdict?
1400. Gearsts
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
Recon finding more well-defined center of circulation on north end of the trough. Borderline call for name right now.
1401. sar2401
Quoting 1391. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Recon has found a well-defined and closed center in association with 91L.


Thank goodness...
Frustrating being left high and dry (and HOT!) here in the Eastern Gulf, well at least it looks like there is some light at the end of the tunnel.
_________________________________________________ __________________________

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
944 am EDT Monday Jun 15 2015

Near term [through today]...
no change in the forecast this morning. Deep layer ridging in place
over the southeast will keep US mostly clear and dry except in the
afternoon when the sea-breeze front will make its way inland and
produce some scattered thunderstorms, mostly along the Florida
Panhandle. The lack of clouds will allow US to warm up to the middle-
upper 90s today across the area.

&&

Previous discussion [647 am edt]...

Short term [tonight through wednesday]...
ridging across the southeast will continue to remain in place
through the short term period keeping rain chances below normal.
With convection largely suppressed, expect afternoon temperatures
to warm into the upper 90s to low 100s across the area. Model
guidance suggests that with afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s,
we'll likely be close to heat advisory criteria both Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon with maximum daytime heat indices around 108
degrees.



Long term [wednesday night through monday]...
the strong ridge remains in place through Thursday before shifting
off to the east and weakening.
As this occurs, afternoon rain
chances will gradually increase
with afternoon high temperatures
cooling a few degrees back into the middle 90s. By the weekend the
region will remain on the western edge of the western Atlantic
ridge, with afternoon rain chances near normal into early next
week.
1403. Patrap
A personal obs here near Lake Pontchartrain,

85F

Inflow steady at the surface from the South, to Seast @ 10-15.

Low clouds racing to the east with the higher ones moving nwest.

Something is out dere fer sure....laddies.





1404. sar2401
Quoting 1390. DavidHOUTX:

If that ends up being the LCC then the models will likely shift further to the North onto the upper Texas coastline.
They'll certainly initialize off a different point than they have been using. We'll have to see what the NHC calls for a track before we know about where things might change.
Looks like 91L is right on the edge of being classifiable as a TS. Given that it's on an organizing trend, I think they should/will go ahead and name it. It's safer that way, get the watches/warnings out, get people aware of what's coming. Flooding will be a significant threat.

Quoting 1388. sar2401:

Seems like TS warnings come from the NHC rather than a local met.

no no
each local area makes that decision

it like down here when we get the storm or another island gets the storm its the gov of that state or island that makes that decision not NHC

for example
here is TS Carlos

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
east of Lazaro Cardenas, and has replaced the Hurricane Warning with
a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.

here is Gustav
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


1407. hydrus
Quoting 1349. DocNDswamp:

Almost wish recon had found a well-defined LLC so could watch how NHC classified it.
They've avoided like the plague mentioning the word "subtropical".
;)
I'd guess they're buying model guidance that either ULL weakens, 91L becomes detached from ULL and develops more under the up ridge influence to call it tropical before landfall.
Regardless, both Ana and whatever this becomes have had similar origins - a surface low reflection under an upper trof.

the upper low is almost dead..The surface low is looking better by the hour...Some folks will get some rough weather...Hopefully the system does not stall somewhere, leading to flooding issues..Some are still wet
1408. Patrap
Echo Tops

124 nm Range

1409. sar2401
Quoting 1402. opal92nwf:

Frustrating being left high and dry (and HOT!) here in the Eastern Gulf, well at least it looks like there is some light at the end of the tunnel.
_________________________________________________ __________________________Long term [wednesday night through monday]...
the strong ridge remains in place through Thursday before shifting
off to the east and weakening.
As this occurs, afternoon rain
chances will gradually increase
with afternoon high temperatures
cooling a few degrees back into the middle 90s. By the weekend the
region will remain on the western edge of the western Atlantic
ridge, with afternoon rain chances near normal into early next
week.

Key word being gradually however. Our best chance is to have 91L/Bill move far enough north and east that the remnants can rotate around the bottom of the ridge and give us some hope. Pretty terrible today. I don't know what happened last night. There was no wind but half my Bradford pear tree fell over. I think it died of heat stroke. :-)
Whatever 91L is/will be classified as, it looks like the Central and Northern Texas coast is in for a ton of squally rain and 20-40 mph sustained winds.

Meanwhile, in Central Fl, our sudden drought pattern continues, with highs well into the 90s under almost full sun and low afternoon humidity.
Quoting 1393. MahFL:



TWC said it would keep intensifying after land fall.


Don't have access to TWC during the day but it is headed towards lowlands/marshlands; not much to slow it down as it heads inshore............It is going to cause some significant flooding and gusty conditions with some power outages.
From Lake Charles area:
Winds at my house now out of ESE. We had a t-storm early this am. The ground is already so soaked even the crawfish are coming out. Yesterday I took a pic of the skies. I see we have more on its way. 
looking at RECON data looks like LLCOC located near

25.883N 92.883W
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1415. JRRP
,
Quoting 1408. Patrap:

Echo Tops

124 nm Range



Is that some sort of center of circulation appearing on the Galveston radar ESE of the city?
1417. sar2401
Quoting 1406. wunderkidcayman:


no no
each local area makes that decision

it like down here when we get the storm or another island gets the storm its the gov of that state or island that makes that decision not NHC

for example
here is TS Carlos

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
east of Lazaro Cardenas, and has replaced the Hurricane Warning with
a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.

here is Gustav
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.





Yes Yes

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks
Whenever a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane has formed, the NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues tropical cyclone advisory products every 6 hours at 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, and 11 pm EDT. If the NHC issues coastal tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings, it also issues Tropical Cyclone Public advisories every 3 hours. You can find these products on www.hurricanes.gov and on TV, radio, cell phones and other computers and NOAA Weather Radio. Information on major NHC products is detailed below. For more details on all NHC products, see the National Hurricane Center Product User's Guide,
Link

Saved by the bell...
Quoting 1402. opal92nwf:

Frustrating being left high and dry (and HOT!) here in the Eastern Gulf, well at least it looks like there is some light at the end of the tunnel.

I know your pain and frustration. Went through the recent drought here in Texas and it was miserable and depressing. Summertime that first year turned the backyard into dead grass/barely alive grass/dirt. Winter brought cold weather but barely any precip if any. Just hang in there and enjoy the Sunshine state while it is able to be called that lol!
Another pass thru the LLC.

1420. hydrus
Quoting 1418. BrazoriaMan:

We want our rain back!
Number of Named Storms Forming Early in the Season - Interesting

2003 - The 4th tropical storm of the Atlantic basin was named "Danny," on JULY 17, 2003.
We ended up having a total of 16 named storms in the Atlantic Basin. A busy hurricane season.

1997 - The 4th tropical storm of the Atlantic was also named "Danny," on JULY 17, 1997.
We ended up having a total of 7 named storms in the Atlantic Basin. 1997 was a strong El Nino.

Both years had 4 named storms form before the end of July.
Both years ended up with a totally different outcome, in the number of named storms.
you can have ours in Corpus.
Quoting 1421. HurrMichaelOrl:

1424. Patrap
Quoting 1422. Stormwatch247:

Number of Named Storms Forming Early in the Season - Interesting

2003 - The 4th tropical storm of the Atlantic basin was named "Danny," on JULY 17, 2003.
We ended up having a total of 16 named storms in the Atlantic Basin. A busy hurricane season.

1997 - The 4th tropical storm of the Atlantic was also named "Danny," on JULY 17, 1997.
We ended up having a total of 7 named storms in the Atlantic Basin. 1997 was a strong El Nino.

Both years had 4 named storms form before the end of July.
Both years ended up with a totally different outcome, in the number of named storms.




I think the latter scenario is more likely this year.