WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

90L in the Gulf disorganized; Leslie almost stationary; Michael hits Cat 3

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:24 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

A remnant of Hurricane Isaac pushed southwards through Alabama on Wednesday and emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and this disturbance is now being tracked as Invest 90L. Long-range radar out of New Orleans shows only a small area of heavy rainfall associated with 90L. The echoes show a little spiral banding behavior, and there is some slight evidence of rotation to the echoes. Visible satellite loops and surface observations from buoys and oil rigs in the Gulf suggest that 90L has formed an ill-defined, elongated surface circulation. The area covered by heavy thunderstorms is relatively small, and is pushed to the south side of the circulation center by strong northerly winds that are creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. There is a large amount of dry air that surrounds 90L on all sides that is interfering with development. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 90L this afternoon, but this flight may be cancelled if 90L does not show more organization in the next few hours.


Figure 1. Invest 90L off the coast of the Florida Panhandle as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:30 pm EDT Wednesday September 5, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 90L
Wind shear is predicted to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by tonight. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf have been cooled down considerably by the passage of Hurricane Isaac last week, and are 28.5° - 29°C. This is plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will increase in organization today and Friday as it moves slowly south-southwest. A trough of low pressure and an associated surface cold front will move southeastwards over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and this trough should be capable of pulling 90L to the northeast to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida on Sunday. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. I put these odds a bit higher, at 50%.

Leslie remains nearly stationary
Hurricane Leslie continues to remain nearly stationary south of the island of Bermuda. Moderately high wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the west drove dry air to Leslie's west into the core of the storm last night, eroding away Leslie's eye. However, satellite loops show that Leslie is pulling a curved band of heavy thunderstorms around the west side of the center, in an attempt to form a new eye. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification, and NOAA buoy 41049 recorded a 1°C (1.8°F) drop in water temperature over the past 24 hours. A uncrewed Global Hawk NASA research aircraft is scheduled to fly in the stratosphere above Leslie this evening to study the hurricane's upper-level outflow. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to do a regular mission on Friday afternoon.


Figure 2. Hurricane Leslie as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:15 pm EDT Wednesday September 5, 2012. At the time, Leslie was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Leslie
Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. The timing of this trough is such that Leslie will be pulled northwards and then north-northeastwards over the weekend. There is significantly less agreement among the models today in the timing and speed of Leslie's track, though. The models have shifted eastwards, which lessens the threat to Bermuda and puts the island on the weak (left) side of the hurricane. If the official NHC forecast verifies, tropical storm-force winds will not begin on Bermuda until late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Friday night. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification, and potentially allow Leslie to be at Category 2 strength at its closest pass by Bermuda Sunday morning, as indicated by the official NHC forecast. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 40% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 230 miles by Sunday.

Most of the models still indicate Leslie is likely to make landfall in Canada, but have shifted eastwards towards Newfoundland and away from Nova Scotia. The GFS model predicts a Thursday landfall in Newfoundland, but the ECMWF model is much faster, predicting a Tuesday landfall in Newfoundland. Given the wide spread in model guidance, what Leslie might do as it approaches Canada is highly uncertain. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and these waves will increase in size as Leslie grows in size and strength this week.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Michael.

Hurricane Michael hits Category 3
The first major hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is Hurricane Michael, which put on a unanticipated round of rapid intensification last night to become a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Michael is the 7th hurricane of the season, putting 2012 in 3rd place behind 1893 and 1886 for earliest formation date of the season's 7th hurricane. We made it through 12 named storms before getting our first major hurricane, which is a rare occurrence. The only times the Atlantic has had as many as 12 named storms before getting a major hurricane was in 1936 and 1934. In both years, Hurricane 13 was the first major hurricane (note, though, that the 5th storm of 1936 is listed as a Category 3 landfall in Florida, but had maximum winds of 90 mph--definitely not Cat 3 winds--so there is a problem with the hurricane database for this storm.) Satellite loops show that Michael is an impressive storm with a well-developed eye, excellent spiral banding, and solid upper-level outflow. Michael is far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas during the coming seven days. Michael has likely peaked in intensity, and will not reach Category 4.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the reliable computer models are predicting that a new tropical wave due to move off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. This wave is predicted to exit Africa too far north to threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands, but it is too early to be confident of this.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Interesting how Michael rapidly intensified, thanks Doc.
..............Thanks Doc..and good morning folks!



Link


I am not predicting 90L to do so, but it does appear to be still sinking south. If by some chance 90L does happen to get south of 24N, and is no more than a TD, it may not get whisked off towards the east with that trough.
Guess it will be a GW blog in the afternoon ... Oh joy!!!
Quoting GetReal:



Link


I am not predicting 90L to do so, but it does appear to be still sinking south. If by some chance 90L does happen to get south of 24N, and is no more than a TD, it may not get whisked off towards the east with that trough.
yeah its time to organize is slowly going away..big rainmaker for someone somewhere..i know texas could use its rains
Quick question... Why would the HH cancel an opportunity to get more accurate data on 90L and it's environment in order to increase forecast effectiveness? Is it less effective because it is not significant enough of a storm?
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN CALVERT COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 1042 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE
CALIFORNIA...HOLLYWOOD...LEONARDTOWN...LEXINGTON PARK...LUSBY...
PATUXENT RIVER NAS...TOWN CREEK...SAINT CLEMENTS BAY...BRETON
BAY...CALVERT CLIFFS...CHESAPEAKE RANCH ESTATES...CUCKOLD CREEK AND
SAINT LEONARD CREEK.

FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILL BRIDGE ROAD...
POPPYS WAY...
ADKINS ROAD ALONG THE SAINT MARYS RIVER...
GODDARD ROAD ALONG THE SAINT MARYS RIVER...
POINT LOOKOUT ROAD BETWEEN PINEY POINT ROAD AND GREAT MILLS ROAD...
BOOTHE FARM LANE...
RONNIE LANE...
FLAT IRON ROAD ALONG THE SAINT MARYS RIVER...
PINEY POINT ROAD NEAR JOHNS CREEK...
GRANDADDYS LANE...
MONTGOMERY LANE...
KNOTTS DRIVE...
WESTERN BRANCH ROAD...
INDIAN BRIDGE ROAD BETWEEN ONION FIELDS LANE AND POINT LOOKOUT
ROAD...

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. FLOODWATER USUALLY IS
DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. MAKE THE SMART CHOICE WHEN
FLOODED ROADS ARE ENCOUNTERED...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3828 7638 3822 7638 3817 7655 3821 7661
3823 7668 3822 7672 3828 7682 3839 7656
3836 7649 3841 7653 3844 7644 3839 7637
3833 7640 3830 7636



KONARIK
funny... yesterday looked like it would become something... wonder why it changed.
Thanks,Dr. Masters,good news for Bermuda,bad news for newfoundland.Current pattern,certainly keeps most of us safe at this point in time.
Quoting GetReal:



Link


I am not predicting 90L to do so, but it does appear to be still sinking south. If by some chance 90L does happen to get south of 24N, and is no more than a TD, it may not get whisked off towards the east with that trough.


Some of the last few runs of the GFS hinted to this as a possibility. The one run before last actually had it moving just offshore Tampa and then moving SW again. Not sure I've ever seen that track play out in reality though.
Quoting GetReal:



Link


I am not predicting 90L to do so, but it does appear to be still sinking south. If by some chance 90L does happen to get south of 24N, and is no more than a TD, it may not get whisked off towards the east with that trough.


First, I wish 90L/Isaac/Nadine would just die. I'm sick of this mess. Second, I can't see any realistic possibility of it going much further west than it is. The trough that's coming down seems to holding together well, and it will pick up 90L and move it east. If we're lucky, the shear and dry air will get to it and tear it up before it makes landfall. Third, since is still Isaac's ghost, it may end up in the Yucatan. :)
thanks for update doc

nice clean blog
1371. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 3:28 PM GMT on September 06, 2012 0
Quoting jeffs713:

Let me guess, you want it to go right over your house, too?

I would be perfectly fine to not have a cat 5 for another 5 years. I'm also sure that 99.999999999% of the western Atlantic coast would be happy with it, too.



.................................................
best chance for a five would be latter half of the the peak
2nd week of october on
side winder moving ne ward
from the sw carb nw carb
cen boc in gom
Quoting NEwxguy:
Thanks,Dr. Masters,good news for Bermuda,bad news for newfoundland.Current pattern,certainly keeps most of us safe at this point in time.

.
Thank you Dr. Masters
Flight into 90L is NOT canceled per NHC
Quoting TxWxHHPF:
Quick question... Why would the HH cancel an opportunity to get more accurate data on 90L and it's environment in order to increase forecast effectiveness? Is it less effective because it is not significant enough of a storm?


It's a waste because no urgent data is needed and it cost thousands of dollars per hour to run those flights (govt job = waste)

For now, they can pick up what they need from oil rigs and shipping traffic. I expect they will consider tomorrow if it flares up overnight.
Link

Nice story from Houston Chronicle "How can we make hurricane warnings simple and accurate?"
"The only times the Atlantic has had as many as 12 named storms before getting a major hurricane was in 1936 and 1934."

That's rather remarkable, considering this year's record-breaking heat & drought are also analogous to the dust bowl years.
Quoting StormHype:


It's a waste because no urgent data is needed and it cost thousands of dollars per hour to run those flights (govt job = waste)

For now, they can pick up what they need from oil rigs and shipping traffic. I expect they will consider tomorrow if it flares up overnight.

Thanks for the quick answer!
Quoting TxWxHHPF:
Quick question... Why would the HH cancel an opportunity to get more accurate data on 90L and it's environment in order to increase forecast effectiveness? Is it less effective because it is not significant enough of a storm?


It costs money to fly missions, and I suspect that the NHC is way overbudget already. The organization on satellite and reports from bouys and oil rigs don't show an intensifying storm. As the Doc wrote, environmental conditions are hostile for development now. If 90L ever gets to the point where the NHC thinks it will get beyond a TD, then they'll fly a mission.
Quoting LargoFl:

Red line goes RIGHT through us here in Pasco ugh
Quoting reedzone:
Flight into 90L is NOT canceled per NHC


Reed, last time I looked, the flight plan was from yesterday.
Quoting dearmas:

Red line goes RIGHT through us here in Pasco ugh
yes it looks like its our turn for the heavy rain and storms,hope its not too bad with the flooding.
Quoting dearmas:

Red line goes RIGHT through us here in Pasco ugh


Nothing like taking a direct hit from an invest. DOOM! lol
GT..its OUR turn today.....................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1133 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

FLZ050-061615-
PINELLAS-
1133 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR TREASURE ISLAND...OR NEAR SAINT PETE BEACH...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT TREASURE ISLAND...SOUTH PASADENA...
SAINT PETE BEACH AND PASS-A-GRILLE BEACH...UNTIL 1215 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. WHEN
DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE
BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.

&&
Quoting LargoFl:
say GT..local met said my area got an inch of rain this morning, man it sure poured rain by me for awhile there..how about your area?
Yeah it has been raining here since early this morning. I have probably picked up the same amount of rain as you, but it was the loud thunder that woke me up.
Recon for 90L is a go!

NOUS42 KNHC 061531
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 06 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-110


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 72-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 73--
A. 07/1200Z A. 08/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0214A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0314A CYCLONE
C. 07/1030Z C. 07/2245Z
D. 27.0N 89.0W D. 28.0N 88.5W
E. 07/1130Z TO 07/1530Z E. 07/2330Z TO 08/0330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. HURRICANE LESLIE
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 42-- FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 42--
A. 07/1200Z A. 08/0000Z
B. NOAA2 0212A LESLIE B. NOAA2 0312A LESLIE
C. 07/0800Z C. 07/2000Z
D. 26.8N 62.5W D. 27.3N 62.8W
E. 07/1100Z TO 07/1330Z E. 07/2300Z TO 08/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SUSPECT AREA A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE LESLIE AT 08/1800Z.
C. TWO MORE P-3 MISSIONS AGAINST HURRICANE LESLIE.

4. REMARKS: THE G-IV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION NEAR
HURRICANE LESLIE DEPARTING AT 07/2100Z.
329

NOUS42 KNHC 061531

REPRPD

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1130 AM EDT THU 06 SEPTEMBER 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-110





I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)

FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 72-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 73--

A. 07/1200Z A. 08/0000Z

B. AFXXX 0214A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0314A CYCLONE

C. 07/1030Z C. 07/2245Z

D. 27.0N 89.0W D. 28.0N 88.5W

E. 07/1130Z TO 07/1530Z E. 07/2330Z TO 08/0330Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



2. HURRICANE LESLIE

FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 42-- FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 42--

A. 07/1200Z A. 08/0000Z

B. NOAA2 0212A LESLIE B. NOAA2 0312A LESLIE

C. 07/0800Z C. 07/2000Z

D. 26.8N 62.5W D. 27.3N 62.8W

E. 07/1100Z TO 07/1330Z E. 07/2300Z TO 08/0530Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:

A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SUSPECT AREA A THREAT.

B. POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE LESLIE AT 08/1800Z.

C. TWO MORE P-3 MISSIONS AGAINST HURRICANE LESLIE.



4. REMARKS: THE G-IV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION NEAR

HURRICANE LESLIE DEPARTING AT 07/2100Z.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.



$$
Fall is coming !!!...Might get some 40,s here in Middle Tenn..
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah its time to organize is slowly going away..big rainmaker for someone somewhere..i know texas could use its rains

The Panhandle doesn't need any more rain, nor does the LA MS AL coast, obviously.
A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 90L this afternoon, but this flight may be cancelled if 90L does not show more organization in the next few hours.
JM
Avila's 11 a.m. Forecast Discussion on Leslie is characteristically interesting. I love it when he begrudges the model forecasts.
LinkNHC11am
Thanks Dr. Masters.


View my blog for a description of a way to "fix" the HSI, ranking of Isaac, Michael, and Leslie, as well as comparison to historic storms.


MOdified HSI scale, or "Absolute Severity Index"(ASI) scale


I was able to show that modifying the HSI in this way closely approximates RELATIVE IKE comparisons for most pairs of storms, and as such should be a very good, relatively easy index to use in forecasting damage potential.


Obviously this still needs adjusting by forward speed, because if the forward speed at landfall is half that of another storm with a similar value, then the damage potential is doubled for rainfall and surge, and needs to be adjusted by population density for the case of very fast moving, very powerful storms (i.e. punch through and hit two cities).


At any rate, this will definitely give a score that is USUALLY more indicative of damage potential than the SS scale.


Again, the SS scale should continue to be used for continuity sake.


What you'll notice is a LOT of low category storms end up being FAR more powerful in real world destructive potential relative to SOME higher category storms than the SS wind scale or (retconned) surge scales imply.

Also, as I said yesterday, I think the SS scale should be changed to a hyphenated system, using the old surge charts as the second value, with the wind scale being the first number for continuity.


Katrina: 4-5
Camille: 5-5
Ike: 2-4
Isaac: 1-3
Andrew: 5-4


this is much more useful than the existing one-digit system and would still be easily accessible to the general public who doesn't study this all the time, and SEEMS to be what was intended all along...


Because I save decimals at every step (and redo intensity calculations using the nearest 1kt,) I can get this value very close.

Cat: Min/Avg/Max value by category:

TS: 1/ 1.0/ 1
c1: 1/ 1.0/ 2.8
c2: 1/ 2.9/ 10.2
c3: 1/ 4.1/ 14.2
c4: 1/ 5.9/ 20.2
c5: 1/ 8.0/ 36 or more


You can easily see now why some "low category" storms are actually more destructive than storms significantly higher than them.

Over all, Andrew ranks less than the maximum category 1 storm, or even the average category 2 storm, it just happened to hit a more populated area with higher land values.
Fresh Cloudsat of the leading edge of the next blob in the train across Africa.
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
943 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

.A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WITHLACOOCHEE
RIVER AT TRILBY AND THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS.
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA STATE
PARK IS CANCELLED.

...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS IN FLOOD
PRONE SPOTS. WITH WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PROLONGED OR RENEWED FLOODING CONDITIONS ON CERTAIN
RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah it has been raining here since early this morning. I have probably picked up the same amount of rain as you, but it was the loud thunder that woke me up.

Looks like we are about to get hit here on the usf campus.
Michael's eye becoming more centred

Why do the waves exit this far north this year.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH INTERACTION OF THE SEA AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLOW THE INLAND PUSH OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE WEST COAST BREEZE
PUSHES ACROSS THE PENINSULA. A BOUNDARY COLLISION IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE GREATER ORLANDO AREA AND THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER TOWARD
SUNSET. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOWLY EASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE LESLIE CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE SURF ZONE AND GENERATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENT AT THE BEACHES TODAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE AT ITS
HIGHEST FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE.

HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION
TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. ONLY SWIM IN THE OCEAN NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. REMAIN CALM
AND BEGIN TO SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE
FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO THE BEACH. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT. EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED QUICKLY.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WEST TO EAST MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS LARGER INLAND LAKES...
THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND ENTER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. BOATERS
SHOULD KEEP A EYE TO THE WEST FOR APPROACHING WEATHER AND SEEK
SHELTER UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED THE AREA.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL MAKE NAVIGATING INLETS HAZARDOUS DURING
OUTGOING TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND INTO FLORIDA WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING WAVES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS PRODUCED BY THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

$$

WIMMER/CRISTALDI
Quoting thunderbug91:

Looks like we are about to get hit here on the usf campus.
yes about to cover st.pete

deja vu
I'm dreaming a bit but who knows... maybe we will get an OMAR like storm this year lol
Thanks Jeff. Son-of-Isaac, go away...
49. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:


yeap expected that largo as 90l is sinking southward now this could be a td latter on tonight into tomorow imo
Not so sure NHC will cancel. Looking at a closer visible loop 90L seems to have a better defined center. Not sure if it is at the surface however. Looks like a sheared cyclone to be, moving S to SSW at 8mph or so.

SE off the tip of Louisiana.

Quoting thunderbug91:

Looks like we are about to get hit here on the usf campus.
lucky you. its hot and muggy here at HCC. maybe we get some soon though.
Quoting 7544:


yeap expected that largo as 90l is sinking southward now this could be a td latter on tonight into tomorow imo
yeah we have to watch it these next few days..even if it doesnt build up..its a big rain maker, adding to the rains from the front stalling out over us this weekend
Quoting Chicklit:

deja vu


from nothing it will come

its got a look to it for some reason

this might become somein

not sure

maybe go the place it was first forecasted for
...meanwhile back at the ranch...

Sorry SE off Louisiana.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Recon for 90L is a go!

NOUS42 KNHC 061531
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 06 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-110


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 72-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 73--
A. 07/1200Z A. 08/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0214A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0314A CYCLONE
C. 07/1030Z C. 07/2245Z
D. 27.0N 89.0W D. 28.0N 88.5W
E. 07/1130Z TO 07/1530Z E. 07/2330Z TO 08/0330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. HURRICANE LESLIE
FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 42-- FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 42--
A. 07/1200Z A. 08/0000Z
B. NOAA2 0212A LESLIE B. NOAA2 0312A LESLIE
C. 07/0800Z C. 07/2000Z
D. 26.8N 62.5W D. 27.3N 62.8W
E. 07/1100Z TO 07/1330Z E. 07/2300Z TO 08/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SUSPECT AREA A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE FIX OF HURRICANE LESLIE AT 08/1800Z.
C. TWO MORE P-3 MISSIONS AGAINST HURRICANE LESLIE.

4. REMARKS: THE G-IV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION NEAR
HURRICANE LESLIE DEPARTING AT 07/2100Z.


Now I'm realy confused. I guess the 90L flight could still be canceled if the NHC doesn't think it's worth the effort. I also don't see the UAV on the flight line up now.
Impressive little bugger.

I'm praying for an interesting 12Z GFS... but I already know I'll get depressed lol
61. 7544
Quoting Chicklit:
...meanwhile back at the ranch...



yep yep get ready the tropics are about to get very active
Quoting Chicklit:
...meanwhile back at the ranch...



Is that supposed to be too far north? Or maybe it's not the wave that is supposed to develop
Quoting CaribBoy:


Is that supposed to be too far north? Or maybe it's not the wave that is supposed to develop

Doc says it doesn't exit CV until Friday, so prolly not.
67. 7544
models may shift further south if 90l becomes a td latter on imo
New image frames the COC nicely.

102 hrs.

90l.is.stepping.up.to.the.plate
Quoting 7544:
models may shift further south if 90l becomes a td latter on imo
yeah models are waiting for the HH info, right now i'd ignore the models,we'll see what happens at the 5 or 8pm updates.
114 hrs. and a fujiwhara is in place:

Quoting CaribBoy:
I'm praying for an interesting 12Z GFS... but I already know I'll get depressed lol
No a storm is not headed for you so that it could cause countless death or destruction...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA SOUTH SHORE
PARISHES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING
100 TO 108. PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS WHERE POWER HAS NOT BEEN
RESTORED WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HH has been pushed back until tomorrow.
Quoting islander101010:
90l.is.stepping.up.to.the.plate


...and had better strike out!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks very disorganised. probably wont become anything.
..............................IF this proves true, that guy up in Canada could be in for a few stormy days new england should be watching this closely as well
Quoting GTcooliebai:
114 hrs. and a fujiwhara is in place:



Me eyes are bad. Does that show 90L off the southeast coast of Fla.?
132 hrs. Leslie is playing follow the leader to Michael into the Graveyard of the North Atlantic:

Quoting LargoFl:
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
943 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

.A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WITHLACOOCHEE
RIVER AT TRILBY AND THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS.
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA STATE
PARK IS CANCELLED.

...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS IN FLOOD
PRONE SPOTS. WITH WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...PROLONGED OR RENEWED FLOODING CONDITIONS ON CERTAIN
RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.


I'm sure that flood warning will be back up by this weekend, I think we are going to see a lot of rain.
83. 7544
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Me eyes are bad. Does that show 90L off the southeast coast of Fla.?


looks like it
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Me eyes are bad. Does that show 90L off the southeast coast of Fla.?
very possible. steering currents look like they will push it into florida
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Me eyes are bad. Does that show 90L off the southeast coast of Fla.?
Yes, at least what is left of it.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Me eyes are bad. Does that show 90L off the southeast coast of Fla.?
right now still in the mid gulf
Cold fronts are welcomed here in the central gulf coast.....they keep the tropical threats away..
90l strike three...good effort last hr or two another game tomorrow..no longer handicapped...bullies beware
Leslie:


Michael:


Wonder if Michael is going to have an EWRC and Leslie is still struggling.
Michael has rather warm cloud tops, or relatively shallow convection for a category 3 hurricane, or for a hurricane in general. It must be over somewhat cooler waters. The tropopause must also be lower up in that region of the Atlantic.
Quoting LargoFl:
..............................IF this proves true, that guy up in Canada could be in for a few stormy days new england should be watching this closely as well


Right now Largo the local Mets are saying that they do not trust the NHC track because there are too many things not accounted for that may influence the track including the timing of the TROFF as well as the speed (or lack therof) of Leslie. As of the last track it has it just brushing us in Nova Scotia but Newfoundland taking a bulls eye. Do you think that Michale will have any influence on Leslie at all?
Quoting Chicklit:
90L image
deja vu


how so?
GFS at 84 hours has it into just above tampa.
GFS has a recurve for the wave but more west on this run?
Quoting washingtonian115:
No a storm is not headed for you so that it could cause countless death or destruction...


I see that
98. 7544
Quoting islander101010:
90l strike three...good effort last hr or two another game tomorrow..no longer handicapped...bullies beware


yeap t numbers went from too weak to t1 now so imo we could see a td latter tonight
Quoting GTcooliebai:
132 hrs. Leslie is playing follow the leader to Michael into the Graveyard of the North Atlantic:

This seems the more plausible scenario, Michael intensified much more than the models saw it, as a result and close proximity towards Leslie in this time frame his counter clockwise circulation drags Leslie towards him and the direction he is going. Good news too for Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes as it looks like they wouldn't take a direct hit either.
GFS at 144 hours.................
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 84 hours has it into just above tampa.


Is that even worthy of "it" designation?
There is practically nothing there :)

The trough coming to pick up 90L has tons of shear on it (as troughs usually do) and it certainly wont help 90L
Thats why it only has " THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE"
I'm a wishcaster I know it.. I know it :-)
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 144 hours.................
that has 90L as non-exsisting.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Is that even worthy of "it" designation?
There is practically nothing there :)

The trough coming to pick up 90L has tons of shear on it (as troughs usually do) and it certainly wont help 90L
Thats why it only has " THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE"
yes didnt see anything strong either..probably just a rainmaker
Quoting VINNY04:
that has 90L as non-exsisting.


too much hype with 90L.. it's a bust
Quoting CaribBoy:


too much hype with 90L.. it's a bust
thats what it looks like
Quoting VINNY04:
that has 90L as non-exsisting.
yes so far, but im ignoring the models for it right now, still a few days for it to do something the models dont know about yet..we'll see what happens
168 hrs. well now this run looks different which is not a surprise:

Quoting LargoFl:
yes so far, but im ignoring the models for it right now, still a few days for it to do something the models dont know about yet..we'll see what happens
you think it will still be around in a few days? i think it will be gone pretty soon. it will hit florida as an unorganised system.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
168 hrs. well now this run looks different which is not a surprise:

No recurve then
Quoting CaribBoy:


too much hype with 90L.. it's a bust
But Michael wasn't supposed to become a Major Hurricane according the models, in fact not develop at all. I'll wait for Recon to confirm what is going on out there later today.
Quoting VINNY04:
you think it will still be around in a few days? i think it will be gone pretty soon. it will hit florida as an unorganised system.
hopefully by saturday it will mix with the cool front coming down the state and just add some rain for us..i doubt it will get strong, but then you never know, this storm has fooled everyone so far huh..remember yesterday the models had it out in the atlantic, then recurving down to miami?..just something to watch for a few days is all we can do.
All this wave has to do is EXISTING AFRICA AROUND 10-12N. Then I'll have happiness. I love storm... I don't understand why everyone is blaming me cause i want a storm!! You all know HOW STORMS STAYED WEAK THIS YEAR IN THE MDR...

Quoting GTcooliebai:
But Michael wasn't supposed to become a Major Hurricane according the models, in fact not develop at all. I'll wait for Recon to confirm what is going on out there later today.


Yes I was very SURPRISED TO SEE MICHAEL THIS STRONG LMAO
Quoting Gearsts:
No recurve then


Good Morning neighbor :)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
But Michael wasn't supposed to become a Major Hurricane according the models, in fact not develop at all. I'll wait for Recon to confirm what is going on out there later today.
Along with Kirk!.
180 hrs.

From Dr. Masters' blog:

The only times the Atlantic has had as many as 12 named storms before getting a major hurricane was in 1936 and 1934.


From another blog in August, there's a table for the 5 worst droughts in US history, with 2012 coming in 5th. 1934 was the worst and 1936 the 4th worst drought years.

It's a no brainer. The drought is suppressing Atlantic hurricane intensity. Cat 3 Michael is well east of the drought area, so may have been less affected.
Quoting LargoFl:
hopefully by saturday it will mix with the cool front coming down the state and just add some rain for us..i doubt it will get strong, but then you never know, this storm has fooled everyone so far huh..remember yesterday the models had it out in the atlantic, then recurving down to miami?..just something to watch for a few days is all we can do.
yah im guessing its gonna hit just north of tampa though. NHC hasnt been very good about predicting these things this year anyway so it probably will change again.
everything is booorrriiinnnggg except for michael. thats an amazing storm to watch
Why is there no action between 40 and 50W in the ITCZ!!
Quoting CaribBoy:
All this wave has to do is EXISTING AFRICA AROUND 10-12N. Then I'll have happiness. I love storm... I don't understand why everyone is blaming me cause i want a storm!! You all know HOW STORMS STAYED WEAK THIS YEAR IN THE MDR...

I have no problem with this, just be careful what you wish for. I mean if you wish for a tropical storm to bring you some rain and wind, that's not bad. Just don't be like the JFV's of the blog that come on here and wish Cat. 5's down their throats and death and destruction or you will get a bad rep.
Quoting K8eCane:
everything is booorrriiinnnggg except for michael. thats an amazing storm to watch


Everything is boring. That's obviously an el nino year WITH A CARIBBEAN BEING THIS DRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I have no problem with this, just be careful what you wish for. I mean if you wish for a tropical storm to bring you some rain and wind, that's not bad. Just don't be like the JFV's of the blog that come on here and wish Cat. 5's down their throats and death and destruction or you will get a bad rep.



amen sister
Quoting GTcooliebai:
180 hrs.



so who is that we are talking about??
204 hrs. it finds the weakness:

wunderground has 90L going in circles right now. anyone have models for the gulf temps right now?
Quoting dolphingalrules:


so who is that we are talking about??
Either Nadine or Oscar depending on if anything forms from 90L in the Gulf.
So if 90L acquired more tropical characteristics would it get a new name or still be Isaac?
Quoting VAstorms:
So if 90L acquired more tropical characteristics would it get a new name or still be Isaac?



new name
Quoting VAstorms:
So if 90L acquired more tropical characteristics would it get a new name or still be Isaac?
New name
Quoting K8eCane:



new name
really? i heard it would use issac because its was part of issac.
Quoting VINNY04:
really? i heard it would use issac because its was part of issac.


yeah there was a debate on that yesterday. NHC said on their facebook page that it would get a new name
Quoting K8eCane:


yeah there was a debate on that yesterday. NHC said on their facebook page that it would get a new name
i guess its official then. they need to get their act together.
Quoting VINNY04:
i guess its official then. they need to get their act together.



it may never get its act together
Quoting K8eCane:



it may never get its act together
true that
Quoting RTSplayer:
.


Katrina: 4-5
Camille: 5-5
Ike: 2-4
Isaac: 1-3
Andrew: 5-4


this is much more useful than the existing one-digit system and would still be easily accessible to the general public who doesn't study this all the time, and SEEMS to be what was intended all along...


i think your numbers are off.
Quoting VINNY04:
true that


thats why i love to watch...ya just never know about ma nature. we THINK we know but....
on this..it mixes in with the front and is gone.......
Quoting GTcooliebai:
But Michael wasn't supposed to become a Major Hurricane according the models, in fact not develop at all. I'll wait for Recon to confirm what is going on out there later today.


Actually, both GFDL and HWRF had it as a majory hurricane yesterday.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Actually, both GFDL and HWRF had it as a majory hurricane yesterday.


it caught a lot of people on here by surprise
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I have no problem with this, just be careful what you wish for. I mean if you wish for a tropical storm to bring you some rain and wind, that's not bad. Just don't be like the JFV's of the blog that come on here and wish Cat. 5's down their throats and death and destruction or you will get a bad rep.


I also wish storms, but in my case I want a big one. I realize that there will have destruction, but... I have my own motivation on that. One day will come...
From the NHC Facebook page:

The National Weather Service rule that applies here reads: "if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name".

Notice the rule says "the" remnant, and not "a" remnant. This means that the storm's primary remnant (and not just any old part of it) has to re-develop in order for the name to be retained. Since the primary remnant of Isaac was still in Kentucky when the new low formed and broke away, the rule dictates that the new low is not entitled to the name Isaac.

This rule actually makes a lot of sense. If a storm died and each of two parts re-developed, we couldn't give the same name to both parts. Only the primary remnant would retain the name, while a lesser remnant or part would get a new name.
Quoting zicoille:


I also wish storms, but in my case I want a big one. I realize that there will have destruction, but... I have my own motivation on that. One day will come...


find your own blog then
Is the ships model reliable? And doesn't it seem to over intensify every storm? Thanks to anyone that answers.
Quoting uptxcoast:
Link

Nice story from Houston Chronicle "How can we make hurricane warnings simple and accurate?"

Interesting story. Also references an interesting blog post.
Azoreans must be sick&tired of all the TropicalStorms&Hurricanes heading in their direction this year.

All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneMichael for 6Sept.12pm
HOR-FaialIsland :: PIX-Pico :: TER-Terceira :: PDL-SaoMiguel

The westernmost dot on the longestline is H.Michael's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Kirk's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to the Azores
5Sept.06pm: TS.Michael had been headed for passage 32miles(kilometres)WNWest of SaoMiguel (left,top,PDLdumbbell)
6Sept.12am: H.Michael had been headed for passage over Pico (bottom,right,PIXblob)
6Sept.06am: H.Michael had been headed for passage 4.7miles(7.6kilometres)SSEast of Terceira (bottom,right,TERblob)
6Sept.12pm: H.Michael was heading for passage 4.1miles(6.6kilometres)WNWest of Faial

Copy&paste cvu, sma, 28.2n43.6w-28.7n42.9w, pdl, 28.2n43.6w-38.303n26.108w, 37.9n25.822w-38.303n26.108w, 28.7n42.9w-29.1n42.4w, pix, 28.7n42.9w-38.429n28.3w, 29.1n42.4w-29.4n42.0w, ter, 29.1n42.4w-38.585n27.03w, 38.643n27.077w-38.585n27.03w, 29.4n42.0w-29.9n41.4w, hor, 29.4n42.0w-38.652n28.878w, 38.604n28.833w-38.652n28.878w into the GreatCircleMapper for a full tree*mapping and other information

* I don't like "pulling rabbits out of the hat"
Quoting Matt74:
Is the ships model reliable? And doesn't it seem to over intensify every storm? Thanks to anyone that answers.


NHC uses them in their forecasts... I think.
Quoting Unfriendly:


i think your numbers are off.


Which numbers.

These values are pretty well established by just checking the records of the surges.

The wind rankings are the same as the official values as well.


Those are landfall intensities.

If you're talking about "peak" intensity over water, then it goes like this.

Katrina: 5-5
Camille: 5-5
Andrew: 5-4
Ike: 4-5 (Near Cuba)
Isaac: 1-3
Quoting Matt74:
Is the ships model reliable? And doesn't it seem to over intensify every storm? Thanks to anyone that answers.


It does not over-intensify every storm, and even has an adjustment to attempt to avoid over-intensifying storms.


I'd say the Euro is the least consistent on storm intensity among the top 7 or 8 models, while paradoxically being 1st or 2nd in track on average.

HWRF is easily the worst about over-intensifying storms among the top 7 or 8 models.
i think the euro overintensifies
Hmmmmm....

"I expect 90L will increase in organization today and Friday as it moves slowly south-southwest. ... In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. I put these odds a bit higher, at 50%."

Dr Jeff, I'm thinking that may be a bit ambitious, particularly the continued organization. I guess 90L still has a small window of opportunity to attain TD / weak TS status, but only as a shallow system with little to no mid level support above 700 mb... Certainly no model support from the GFS yet on that point as indicates such will continue to get sheared away to the SW of the LLC, nor will any mid level vortex reform overhead... I see nothing favorable in the wind field forecast evolution at those heights, despite nice convergent consolidation of the low level vort... Without that happening - might just as easily see 90L as a relatively convection-free ghost swirl of a LLC within next 12-24 hrs...
JMHO, we'll see how plays out.
160. 7544
looks like 90l is starting to gain some convection dont call this one out just yet imo
Quoting RTSplayer:


It does not over-intensify every storm, and even has an adjustment to attempt to avoid over-intensifying storms.


I'd say the Euro is the least consistent on storm intensity among the top 7 or 8 models, while paradoxically being 1st or 2nd in track on average.

HWRF is easily the worst about over-intensifying storms among the top 7 or 8 models.
Thats interesting. Thanks for answering my question.
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
841 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...FLORIDA...

BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER AFFECTING COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA AND SANTA
ROSA COUNTIES.
SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW AFFECTING OKALOOSA COUNTY.

.RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE RIVER.

SAFETY MESSAGE...
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-070230-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120907T0230Z/
/BAKF1.2.ER.120905T1502Z.120905T2301Z.120906T2030 Z.NO/
841 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER
* UNTIL THIS EVENING
* AT 8AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 11 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF SECONDARY ROADS AND LOWLANDS FROM AROUND
BAKER DOWNSTREAM WILL OCCUR.

$$
Katrina: 3-5 (corrected, K was a 3 at landfall)
Camille: 5-5 (correct)
Andrew: 5-3 (surge was below predictions for FL)
Ike: 2-4 (correct)
Isaac: 1-3 (correct)
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Hmmmmm....

"I expect 90L will increase in organization today and Friday as it moves slowly south-southwest. ... In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. I put these odds a bit higher, at 50%."

Dr Jeff, I'm thinking that may be a bit ambitious, particularly the continued organization. I guess 90L still has a small window of opportunity to attain TD / weak TS status, but only as a shallow system with little to no mid level support above 700 mb... Certainly no model support from the GFS yet on that point as indicates such will continue to get sheared away to the SW of the LLC, not will any mid level vortex reform overhead... I see nothing favorable in the wind field forecast evolution at those heights, despite nice convergent consolidation of the low level vort... Without that happening - might just as easily see 90L as a relatively convection-free ghost swirl of a LLC within next 12-24 hrs...
JMHO, we'll see how plays out.


Great analysis Doc.... As a point to back your observations here in SE La (as you are also) there is a scattering of puffy cumulus clouds, with absolutely no vertical uplift present. The mid and upper levels are stable.
I'm sorry but I don't see what's so special about 90L... other than being "son of Isaac".
Recon may be a no go. Supposed to take off at 1pm.


Decoded recon data in the last 30 minutes:

No decoded data could be found.
System Status: Updating every minute.
Last Update: September 6, 2012 17:10 GMT
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm sorry but I don't see what's so special about 90L... other than being "son of Isaac".
well any low in the gulf this time of year is special and something just to watch, but for me im guessing it mixes in with the approaching front in a few days and adds to the rain..but we'll see what happens.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm sorry but I don't see what's so special about 90L... other than being "son of Isaac".
Than it can develop in to a new TS in 48hours?
rainfall model has 90L mixing with the front.
Gro your the Blob expert..90L any thoughts?
171. yoboi
where is 90 going looking at the models are confusing..
Quoting yoboi:
where is 90 going looking at the models are confusing..
even the models dont know yet
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ555-061800-
/O.NEW.KMLB.MA.W.0119.120906T1705Z-120906T1800Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
105 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

FROM FORT PIERCE INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM.

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 1259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM FORT PIERCE IN SAINT LUCIE
COUNTY TO INDIANTOWN IN WEST MARTIN COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
TO 15 MPH AND PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS.

*THE THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BETWEEN FORT PIERCE INLET
AND JUPITER INLET THROUGH 200 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WINDS OVER 34
KNOTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. SMALL CRAFT...ESPECIALLY THOSE UNDER
SAIL...SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE HARBOR IF POSSIBLE. MAKE SURE YOU AND
YOUR CREW ARE WEARING APPROVED FLOTATION DEVICES DURING THESE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
Quoting yoboi:
where is 90 going looking at the models are confusing..

that's your problem don't pay attention to the models at this stage of the game.

focus on this....

Recon heading out to 90L

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 17:15Z
Date: September 6, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02
177. yoboi
Quoting LargoFl:
even the models dont know yet



it looks like it's drifting south southwest??
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Recon heading out

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 17:15Z
Date: September 6, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02
good now the models will get the new info
179. 7544
if that front dosent get there soon 90l could even get further south even below fl at this rate lol
Quoting yoboi:



it looks like it's drifting south southwest??
so far yeah
Levi... are you there Levi?
Link
Windsat caught 90L & Leslie..

Quoting GetReal:


Great analysis Doc.... As a point to back your observations here in SE La (as you are also) there is a scattering of puffy cumulus clouds, with absolutely no vertical uplift present. The mid and upper levels are stable.


G'day GR and thanks... Yeah, guess still some concern the LLC could still generate enough ELY winds to affect our eastern-most coastal parishes holding tides up and drainage, etc... But it'll all be flying out by time cold front hits... Looking forward to the delightful cooler, drier change as much as you!
184. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:
good now the models will get the new info


maybe they will even relocate the coc further south and west where all the convection is ?
Quoting 7544:


maybe they will even relocate the coc further south and west where all the convection is ?
yeah its a wait and see situation today
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Recon heading out to 90L

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 17:15Z
Date: September 6, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02


Oh well, this will be the most boring recon flight sinc the one into isaac as it was forming.
No exciting pressure measurements, center fix, just an elongated mess to go fly around in. :P

Glad i caught this piece of info while i had a break though
188. yoboi
Quoting TomballTXPride:

that's your problem don't pay attention to the models at this stage of the game.

focus on this....



wonder what happens if that front does not pick it up this weekend...
Quoting 7544:


maybe they will even relocate the coc further south and west where all the convection is ?


Looking at Skyepony's windsat (Thanks :-))

The center is right where you see it on visible. Shear is kicking high today.
190. 7544
Quoting Skyepony:
Windsat caught 90L & Leslie..



hmm little strong winds there interesting to see what they find



Exposed LLC of 90L swirling around at 28.1N and 88.4W...


IMO HH will not find anything worth the price of the fuel to go out there....

At least they will not have to fly far!
90L has a 850mb vortex with a midlevel support about 100 miles to the SW of the LLC. This will die off (most likely) in the next 12-24hrs. 90L (that currently is the swirl to the NE of the convection) is lacking midlevel moisture.. now while it will moisten up in the next 1-2 days.. it will become embedded with the trough coming down on Saturday into Sunday. I expect a 20% chance of this becoming something..only if convection fires tonight over 90L
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Oh well, this will be the most boring recon flight sinc the one into isaac as it was forming.
No exciting pressure measurements, center fix, just an elongated mess to go fly around in. :P

Glad i caught this piece of info while i had a break though


Agree but, ya never know. Has to be a reason that we aren't seeing that prompted them to continue with the mission.
They surely don't need the practice this year. Especially with pending full cover of Leslie.
Congratulations Mr. Isaac.. it's a blob!
I call the HWRF the Doomsday Model with how much it over intensifies systems.
199. SLU
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Recon heading out to 90L

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 17:15Z
Date: September 6, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02


Why are they wasting fuel flying into a system with no apparent circulation on visible imagery?
200. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:


not bad imo looks to be more organized than it did this am getting a nice round shape to it stage 1
Local met thinks 90L will sit in the gulf a day or day and a half then get moved towards florida then gets caught up in the front coming down and mixes with it, he thinks just added rain to what the front brings..to me this sounds just about right...BUT..90L does have a day to get its act together..dont think its gonna happen, but....
2012 AHS is so turnt up..still cant believe its 13-7-1 already

Quoting SLU:


Why are they wasting fuel flying into a system with no apparent circulation on visible imagery?


I see one SE off the tip of Louisiana. May not be at the surface however, it's there. We'll know for sure in about an hour.
Shear seems to have kicked up a notch over 90L this afternoon however.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Recon heading out to 90L

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 17:15Z
Date: September 6, 2012
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02


Good Call NHC short flight in and out.
Quoting SLU:


Why are they wasting fuel flying into a system with no apparent circulation on visible imagery?


Because the only have to fly like 5 feet to get there lol
persistant blob in the gulf glad recon is a go.theyll do a 30mile per hr td
This does not look good.

What is the deal with so many mal-functioning or otherwise useless buoys in the Gulf?

Half of them aren't working at all, and about another half of them only record data that doesn't much matter, or record one data point every 8 or 24 hours.

It's ridiculous that there are so many buoys in the area, and only ONE of them is giving any relevant data regarding 90L...

Wind but no pressure

Station KIPN
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 28.085N 87.986W
Date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012 17:15:00 UTC
Winds: SW (230) at 28.0 kt
Air Temperature: 78.8 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F
Visibility: 7.8 nmi


Here are some others that are semi-useful...


Wind and pressure, but very far away.

Station PILL1
NOS
Location: 29.178N 89.258W
Date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012 17:06:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (30) at 12.0 kt gusting to 15.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in
Air Temperature: 83.1 F
Water Temperature: 84.6 F


Wind, but no pressure

Station KMIS
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 29.296N 88.842W
Date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012 17:15:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (120) at 8.9 kt
Air Temperature: 82.4 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F
Visibility: 7.8 nmi


Pressure, but no wind.

Station 42012
NDBC
Location: 30.065N 87.555W
Date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012 16:50:00 UTC
Significant Wave Height: 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec
Mean Wave Direction: S (191)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.0 F
Dew Point: 74.5 F
Water Temperature: 82.6 F




Was NWS defunded this badly?

Most of this is useless, and these are the best 4 buoys I could find....
Quoting unknowncomic:
This does not look good.



for who?


90L ...pick-a-swirl
Quoting SLU:


Why are they wasting fuel flying into a system with no apparent circulation on visible imagery?

I think that's the point. It continues to move SW at 8 mph. There are no real steering currents to make it move east. The trough that should be in or near the Gulf by Saturday may not get far enough out if 90L manages to get too far SW, so the models that show the trough is what will move it east may be flawed. The assumption is that dry air and shear will keep it in check but, the further SW it moves, the total land area potentially under threat increases. A HH flight will give them a better look at any circulation that may be developing, as well as what the real winds are within the storm. Given the history of Isaac, I think it's prudent to take a closer look now, before things start to change too fast. I'm hoping they just find a blob, but I don't trust anything having to do with Isaac.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Because the only have to fly like 5 feet to get there lol
LOL good point
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


90L ...pick-a-swirl


How 'bout 28N 88W?
........models are useless right now
This is Bad for those still without power huh......
Quoting SLU:


Why are they wasting fuel flying into a system with no apparent circulation on visible imagery?


Go here:

Gulf RGB


Turn on LL coordinates and look about where the official center fix is (NE of the convection).


If you still can't see it, turn on the "Fronts" overlay.

It is currently analyzed at 1012mb.

Though it must be lower than that by now, since the station in Plaquemines parish is also 1012mb.


It's pathetic that none of the buoys close to the convection or suspected LLC have barometers.

the storm is centered on a patch of about 25 buoys and other stations, and only one of them has both wind and pressure, and it's too far away to matter..


Based on what little useful data there is, any LLC would need to be about 50 to 70 miles SE of the mouth of the Mississippi to make sense...which is about where they analyzed it.
May have pulled them back, lol.

Decoded recon data in the last 30 minutes:

No decoded data could be found.
Quoting RTSplayer:
What is the deal with so many mal-functioning or otherwise useless buoys in the Gulf?

Half of them aren't working at all, and about another half of them only record data that doesn't much matter, or record one data point every 8 or 24 hours.

It's ridiculous that there are so many buoys in the area, and only ONE of them is giving any relevant data regarding 90L...

Wind but no pressure

Station KIPN
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 28.085N 87.986W
Date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012 17:15:00 UTC
Winds: SW (230°) at 28.0 kt
Air Temperature: 78.8 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F
Visibility: 7.8 nmi


Here are some others that are semi-useful...


Wind and pressure, but very far away.

Station PILL1
NOS
Location: 29.178N 89.258W
Date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012 17:06:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (30°) at 12.0 kt gusting to 15.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in
Air Temperature: 83.1 F
Water Temperature: 84.6 F


Wind, but no pressure

Station KMIS
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 29.296N 88.842W
Date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012 17:15:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (120°) at 8.9 kt
Air Temperature: 82.4 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F
Visibility: 7.8 nmi


Pressure, but no wind.

Station 42012
NDBC
Location: 30.065N 87.555W
Date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012 16:50:00 UTC
Significant Wave Height: 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec
Mean Wave Direction: S (191°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.95 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.0 F
Dew Point: 74.5 F
Water Temperature: 82.6 F




Was NWS defunded this badly?

Most of this is useless.

Those buoys are funded by the FAA, not NOAA or the NWS. They are primarily used for reporting surface level information used in flight planning. It's an old system, and I suspect Isaac may have torn up some of them. The FAA is moving away from bouys to a combination of oil platform mounted sensors and satellite/GPS coverage for the Gulf. See the link for more information.
Link
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


for who?
Nobody in particular--too early to know where. Just heading towards US at this point.
Seesh, yall are slow today. Recon postponed till tomorrow.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND
ON HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 980 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES.

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SINCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN POSTPONED TO
TOMORROW. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
I wonder EXACTLY who is responsible for inputting current data into model runs? I mean, who actually stands there and punches the numbers? or how is that done?
new Nam at 72 hours.............
it will be there tomorrow good day all
new GFS at 72 hours.............
Quoting K8eCane:
I wonder EXACTLY who is responsible for inputting current data into model runs? I mean, who actually stands there and punches the numbers? or how is that done?


you're joking, right?


Almost all of that is automated.

Our different sensors, radars, satellites, etc, send data to the various groups' computers in a formatted manner, and the computer receives it as input and initializes it's run based on all the data it has received.


There is no way humans could manually input all the data for the entire planet, or even just for a small region.
230. viman
Recon flight cancelled...
Michael sure is impressive. However, I'm doubtful Michael will be able to intensify more as he seems to be pretty near the maximum intensity his environment will currently support. The fact that Michael's cloud tops have not gotten below -70C leads me to believe the environment is not unstable enough to support much more strengthening. With the lightening shear, we may see better structure tonight and tomorrow, so long as outflow from Leslie doesn't become an issue. However, as far as intensity, I wouldn't expect much more strengthening. Beyond tomorrow it looks like the upper flow from Leslie will begin to eat away at Michael, causing weakening.

..................GFS at 384 hours..whew
Quoting islander101010:
it will be there tomorrow good day all



islander101010.is.spaced.out.today: )
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Seesh, yall are slow today. Recon postponed till tomorrow.

Not worth the fuel.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Why do the waves exit this far north this year.
Because the Intertropical Front (ITCZ/Monsoon Trough) is further north over Africa. This front is drawn further north when the pressure gradient between the Saharan heat low and relatively higher pressures over the Gulf of Guinea is strengthened. Since the stronger gradient leads to greater instability in the African Easterly Jet, we can also expect stronger African Easterly Waves which form within the jet. Thus, when ITCZ/monsoon trough over Africa is further north, it is a sign that waves will be coming off Africa stronger.

Position of the African Intertropical Front (ITCZ/Monsoon Trough) Relative to Climatology




Unfortunately for the waves, however, when they exit Africa further north they usually enter cooler SSTs and a more stable environment over the Atlantic ocean. They are also more likely to round the periphery of the ridge earlier and therefore recurve sooner as we saw with Gordon, Kirk, and now Michael.
Quoting K8eCane:
I wonder EXACTLY who is responsible for inputting current data into model runs? I mean, who actually stands there and punches the numbers? or how is that done?


Some Supercomputers.
Leslie's winds and pressure are unchanged, says the ATCF:

AL, 12, 2012090618, , BEST, 0, 265N, 622W, 65, 985, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 15,
Quoting islander101010:
it will be there tomorrow good day all


you got spaces?
Quoting K8eCane:


find your own blog then


Why, do you think he is alone? I think you would be shocked if you realized how many people here were just like him.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Because the Intertropical Front (ITCZ/Monsoon Trough) is further north over Africa. This front is drawn further north when the pressure gradient between the Saharan heat low and relatively higher pressures over the Gulf of Guinea is strengthened. Since the stronger gradient leads to greater instability in the African Easterly Jet, we can also expect stronger African Easterly Waves which form within the jet. Thus, when ITCZ/monsoon trough over Africa is further north, it is a sign that waves will be coming off Africa stronger.

Unfortunately for the waves, however, when they exit Africa further north they usually enter cooler SSTs and a more stable environment over the Atlantic ocean. They are also more likely to round the periphery of the ridge earlier and therefore recurve sooner as we saw with Gordon, Kirk, and now Michael.


So you are back.
I supppose your appeal went well then :)
It seems that all of the male names (except Alberto which was a pre-season storm) have been able to achieve hurricane status, but the females seem to wanna keep it simple. Leslie is actually the 1st female hurricane. You go guys!
Quoting LargoFl:
I lived not far from there when Fay came through..got a few gusts, a few drops of rain, but overall nothing spectacular. Tallahassee, on the other hand, got a lot of feeder band action.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Because the Intertropical Front (ITCZ/Monsoon Trough) is further north over Africa. This front is drawn further north when the pressure gradient between the Saharan heat low and relatively higher pressures over the Gulf of Guinea is strengthened. Since the stronger gradient leads to greater instability in the African Easterly Jet, we can also expect stronger African Easterly Waves which form within the jet. Thus, when ITCZ/monsoon trough over Africa is further north, it is a sign that waves will be coming off Africa stronger.

Position of the African Intertropical Front (ITCZ/Monsoon Trough) Relative to Climatology




Unfortunately for the waves, however, when they exit Africa further north they usually enter cooler SSTs and a more stable environment over the Atlantic ocean. They are also more likely to round the periphery of the ridge earlier and therefore recurve sooner as we saw with Gordon, Kirk, and now Michael.
Do you think our next wave that the models show developing will recurve? Because and earlier model run had it all the way in the gulf, now it recurves east of the islands.
Phew so Leslie will miss Atlantic Canada pretty much altogether, that's great news.Had some people a bit worried there but we knew it would become a fish storm.
Major Michael made a minor:

AL, 13, 2012090618, , BEST, 0, 304N, 411W, 95, 964, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 10, 10, 1015, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, D,
Quoting Gearsts:
Do you think our next wave that the models show developing will recurve? Because and earlier model run had it all the way in the gulf, now it recurves east of the islands.
With the system forecasted to exit Africa with about 15 degrees of latitude, climatology favors a recurve out before the US. At the moment, the models are in strong agreement that the storm will curve out into the massive weakness left behind by Leslie. Still, a lot can change as this is long a ways out.
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Why, do you think he is alone? I think you would be shocked if you realized how many people here were just like him.


yes i guess you are saying i would be surprised at how many people know there will be destruction but wish it anyway? Ok yes maybe i would be surprised, but then again, maybe you would
If this trough and strong front wasn't coming down the plains into TX and the gulf coast, 90L would've came to TX especially with the ridging we've had all year. Another missed opportunity for rain over TX. And this passage will probably end the season for TX as significant fronts tend to do.
12z Euro isn't much help. It initialized Leslie 20mbs and 30 knots stronger than she is in reality. Meanwhile, Michael is intialized 40mbs and 60 knots too weak. So I wouldn't pay too much attention to the tracks shown on the 12z ECMWF. One thing we can take away is that Leslie has about the next 2, maybe 2.5, days to strengthen before the upper level winds become too unfavorable for strengthening (though it will have to deal with issues with its core, dry air and upwelling if it wishes to intensify over these days).

252. VR46L
Michael was a cutie




and this little guy still is

Good afternoon everyone. Leslie's struggling to get her act together... I'm thinking the NHC intensity forecast is probably too aggressive. Bermuda has dodged a bullet it appears.



Michael's still a good looking storm, it's likely he's peaked but I wouldn't be shocked if he tried for one more burst of intensification.

NOAA - August 9, 2012
12-17 storms
5-8 hurricanes
2-3 major hurricanes


At 13-7-1, that hurricane number will probably need adjusting up.
The storm number and Major hurricane numbers are in jeopardy too, but not as badly as is the hurricanes forecast.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



islander101010.is.spaced.out.today: )

Maybe he got the new keyboard for his birthday, as he claimed that was the reason for all the dots.
Quoting K8eCane:


yes i guess you are saying i would be surprised at how many people know there will be destruction but wish it anyway? Ok yes maybe i would be surprised, but then again, maybe you would


This blog basically has three types:

The Hand Wringers
The Cheerleaders
The Weather Junkies

It is pretty easy to ascertain who belongs to which group.

Quoting RitaEvac:


They must read the blog because there's no way that term is used anywhere.


LOL that must be it :) of course it has been said since the 1500's, too just ask Gro.
12z Euro at 240hrs. The storms proximity to the east coast does raise concern for the potential US landfall, though based off the orientation of the A/B ridge the storm would begin to move northward and likely miss the east coast. And again, this is one model run, nearly two weeks out, and the storm has not even developed yet. A lot will change. For now, Bermuda, Canada and maybe NE US should be watching the models, just keeping their eyes open. But the storm is still an incredibly long ways out so we can watch the models flip and flop without much concern at the moment.

One other thing, I also find it hard to believe the storm would become so incredibly broad and yet only be a weak tropical storm...that really doesn't make sense.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NOAA - August 9, 2012
12-17 storms
5-8 hurricanes
2-3 major hurricanes


At 13-7-1, that hurricane number will probably need adjusting up.
The storm number and Major hurricane numbers are in jeopardy too, but not as badly as is the hurricanes forecast.

I wish they would stop wasting the time and money used to create those forecasts. The results have shown consistently that they are little better than chance, yet they, and a bunch of other "scientists", keep doing this, year after year. They occasionally get one right, but even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut. The numbers of hurricanes in a season might be useful for planning purposes, but they are nowhere near accurate enough to anything but lull people into a false sense of security (slow season ahead) or get people all nervous (DOOM season ahead).
Euro is way more west with this future storm. Still think it recurves but something to watch
Maybe Leslie is going to become a permanent atmospheric feature or something, like the Great Red Spot on Jupiter.

It hasn't moved in days.
Quoting icmoore:


LOL that must be it :) of course it has been said since the 1500's, too just ask Gro.


Oh, Henry VIII started that line about "eating crow" I told him once there were no more blackbirds for the pie, and he replied, "Let them eat crow"
Quoting sar2401:

I wish they would stop wasting the time and money used to create those forecasts. The results have shown consistently that they are little better than chance, yet they, and a bunch of other "scientists", keep doing this, year after year. They occasionally get one right, but even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut. The numbers of hurricanes in a season might be useful for planning purposes, but they are nowhere near accurate enough to anything but lull people into a false sense of security (slow season ahead) or get people all nervous (DOOM season ahead).
So, because weather and climate forecasts aren't perfect, NOAA shouldn't bother with them at all?

Seriously?

Too, why the sarcastic scare quotes around the word "scientists"? Do you not feel the educated, degreed, and experienced tropical meteorologists at the NOAA are worthy of their titles?

Science is all about testing theories--theories in this context being forecasts--then tweaking those theories until they match observations. That's how science improves. So without "wasting time and money" on those forecasts, the science will never get better.
some state water guy was on the radio saying depending on what happens with 90L and the cold front moving in..some area's of florida COULD get 6-8 inches or more of rain before the weekend is out..COULD is the key word here..lakes are full mostly..we'll see what happens huh..most area's he said would get 2-4 inches of rain.
Quoting NOLALawyer:


This blog basically has three types:

The Hand Wringers
The Cheerleaders
The Weather Junkies

It is pretty easy to ascertain who belongs to which group.

To which group do you belong?
Most reliable models currently have 90L moving east over Central Florida and moving down along the East coast of Florida.

Quoting Grothar:


Oh, Henry VIII started that line about "eating crow" I told him once there were no more blackbirds for the pie, and he replied, "Let them eat crow"


YEA I love it as I "always say" LOL, Gro knows, hahaha! Although I am near as old as you I never have been allowed to rub elbows with the upper crust :)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NOAA - August 9, 2012
12-17 storms
5-8 hurricanes
2-3 major hurricanes


At 13-7-1, that hurricane number will probably need adjusting up.
The storm number and Major hurricane numbers are in jeopardy too, but not as badly as is the hurricanes forecast.
Keep in mind that last year, only four of the season's 19 storms formed after September 10. A repeat of that this year, with just one (major) hurricane among those four, would validate that forecast.
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, Henry VIII started that line about "eating crow" I told him once there were no more blackbirds for the pie, and he replied, "Let them eat crow"


HAHAHAHA That has got to be one of the funniest things I've read all week. Good one Grothar.
Quoting Grothar:
Most reliable models currently have 90L moving east over Central Florida and moving down along the East coast of Florida.

yeah guess we are the ones getting those 6-8 inches of rain..we'll see
300 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SEBASTIAN HIGHLANDS...SEBASTIAN...
WINTER BEACH...WABASSO...VERO BEACH SOUTH...VERO BEACH...
ROSELAND...INDIAN RIVER SHORES...GIFFORD...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

* AT 259 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DRIFTING
EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN SEBASTIAN INLEST AND VERO BEACH. THE FLOODING
THREAT WILL BE GREATER DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONE ISAAC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS WELL AS
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS
ARE IN USE.

&&
Leslie Bermuda Approach Intensities Forecast.

I quit using Euro since it sucks for intensity.

Model raw / adj

12z GFDL 961mb / 968mb
12z HWRF 971mb / 977mb
12z GFS 973 / 960mb

avg raw: 968mb
avg adj: 968mb

INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
320 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN BROWARD
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE
MANAGEMENT AREA...AND MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
OKEELANTA...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

WATERSPOUTS: THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE ACROSS THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF
WATERSPOUTS.

WIND: WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

FLOODING: ALTHOUGH AREAS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS FLOODING
CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH
COUNTY WITH SOME ROADS STILL IMPASSABLE DUE TO STANDING WATERS. THE
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES: THE HEAT INDEX COULD REACH NEAR ONE HUNDRED DEGREES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TODAY.
yep its florida's turn next several days..........BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 330 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
OKEELANTA...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND
OR LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION, SEEK SHELTER IN
AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah guess we are the ones getting those 6-8 inches of rain..we'll see


Well, it's a pretty weak system so I don't know about 6 to 8 inches, but as it moves east in a couple days and merges with the front there could be some pretty heavy amounts. We'll see.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well, it's a pretty weak system so I don't know about 6 to 8 inches, but as it moves east in a couple days and merges with the front there could be some pretty heavy amounts. We'll see.
yes thats what the state water guy said, alot depends on what happens with 90L..he said some area's could get more than that over several days this weekend..well rainfall wise, my neighborhood can stand that, maybe some intersections with water on them..we'll see
Tests confirm oil washed ashore during Isaac came from BP spill


"This is not oil everywhere," Overton said. He said the difference between the amounts of oil being exposed now by Isaac and what the Gulf saw in 2010 is "night and day."


Quoting LargoFl:
yes thats what the state water guy said, alot depends on what happens with 90L..he said some area's could get more than that over several days this weekend..well rainfall wise, my neighborhood can stand that, maybe some intersections with water on them..we'll see


Yeah it's hard to tell what will happen. I do think it will be a pretty large rain maker. Coastal areas tend to get the most with these setups so I think we will see a lot. Flooding never really get's that bad in Pinellas because the ocean is always nearby for the excess water to drain off. We have seen enough rain this summer to flood a a home underwater several times over but we have only seen short term street flooding about 20+ times this summer but it never gets really bad and quickly drains off after it's done raining, often as early as later in the day.
here is the rainfall estimates for 24 hours from today into tomorroww..notice one spot on the east coast with 4-5 inches predicted..and 90L and the cold front isnt even anywhere near yet....................
Quoting Neapolitan:
So, because weather and climate forecasts aren't perfect, NOAA shouldn't bother with them at all?

Seriously?

Too, why sarcastic scare quotes around the word "scientists"? Do you not feel the educated, degreed, and experienced tropical meteorologists at the NOAA are worthy of their titles?

Science is all about testing theories--theories in this context being forecasts--then tweaking those theories until they match observations. That's how science improves. So without "wasting time and money" on those forecasts, the science will never get better.


Yes, seriously. First, my comment was directed at only one thing, clearly flawed hurricane season number forecasting. You expanded that to "weather and climate forecasts", commiting the logical fallacy of killing the messenger for something he didn't say. Continuing to issue forecasts that have been shown to be no better than chance are not forecasts, they are guesses. You test theories among other scientists, test them against actual results, and release results to the public when the theories have been shown to have some validity. The quotes are precisely because the people who do this are not behaving like scientists, they are paid guessers. They could at least include a probability of their forecast being correct, but something like 50/50 doesn't sound very scientific....because it isn't.

You always get you panties in a wad when anyone questions "educated, degreed, and experienced tropical meteorologists", but none of their education, degrees, or experience means squat when they continue to be wrong more often than right. Believe it or not, some of us other than you really do have some education in the scientific method, and understand the difference between guessing and science. Imagine what the reaction would be if scientists that design tires kept guessing about how they would perform, released them to the public, and then modified their guesses depending on how many tires failed? You test these theories first and release tires to the public when the statistical outcomes are at least better than chance. Are saying seriously that hurricane season forecasting matches your definition of science?

I have a lot of respect for your education and knowledge, but your condescending attitude towards me and other blog members when it comes to questioning your definition of truth really sticks in my craw. Your use of the term "sarcastic scare quotes" is a perfect example.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah it's hard to tell what will happen. I do think it will be a pretty large rain maker. Coastal areas tend to get the most with these setups so I think we will see a lot. Flooding never really get's that bad in Pinellas because the ocean is always nearby for the excess water to drain off. We have seen enough rain this summer to flood a a home underwater several times over but we have only seen short term street flooding about 20+ times this summer but it never gets really bad and quickly drains off after it's done raining, often as early as later in the day.
yeah our part of the county is lucky that way..
Quoting RitaEvac:
Tests confirm oil washed ashore during Isaac came from BP spill


"This is not oil everywhere," Overton said. He said the difference between the amounts of oil being exposed now by Isaac and what the Gulf saw in 2010 is "night and day."




bp sank the oil and now it some of it has been washed ashore.. we know there are large mats off our beaches here in alabama..and yes some of it broke off and came on the beaches... going to take a long time for all of it to be washed ashore
hey stormtracker2k..you ok over there?...........SEMINOLE-ORANGE-
337 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER PARK...PINE HILLS...ORLANDO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...ORLANDO...OAK RIDGE...MAITLAND...
WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER SPRINGS...WEKIVA SPRINGS...
SANFORD...OVIEDO...LONGWOOD...LAKE MARY...LAKE JESSUP...FOREST
CITY...CASSELBERRY...ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT.

* AT 333 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL
ORANGE COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE
DUMPING IN UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY. THESE SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOTORISTS SHOULD DEACTIVATE CRUISE CONTROL AND SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY
RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING. LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE
BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS WELL AS
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&
This should be a pole, it is the political season. Leslie is trying hard to claim her piece of Atlantic real estate.
Quoting NOLALawyer:


This blog basically has three types:

The Hand Wringers
The Cheerleaders
The Weather Junkies

It is pretty easy to ascertain who belongs to which group.


Quoting gulfcoastmom1969:


bp sank the oil and now it some of it has been washed ashore.. we know there are large mats off our beaches here in alabama..and yes some of it broke off and came on the beaches... going to take a long time for all of it to be washed ashore


Up until Dennis riled up the Gulf, I was seeing shrimp with lesions from crude oil on nearly every delivery to the tackle shop I work in.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes thats what the state water guy said, alot depends on what happens with 90L..he said some area's could get more than that over several days this weekend..well rainfall wise, my neighborhood can stand that, maybe some intersections with water on them..we'll see


Sometimes it's the sloppy systems that can dump the most rain.
350 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

.NOW...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...STRONG STORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SEMINOLE AND CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. TORRENTIAL RAINS
CAPABLE OF MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING WERE THE MAIN THREAT WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE.

A LARGE BOUNDARY COLLISION WAS IMMINENT FROM INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH EASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY...EAST-CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...EAST
OSCEOLA COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. THIS SHOULD IGNITE
ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURST WINDS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WHICH MAY
CAUSE NUISANCE MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER IT MAY MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST
ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE SMALL
CRAFT BOATING CONCERNS WOULD BE AFFECTED.
Looks like 90L is poofing, with its convection ripped away so far to the SW it has no reason to live. I will wait for Dmax tonight before I call RIP, but the small llc looks to be winding down.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Sometimes it's the sloppy systems that can dump the most rain.
yes your right there, i do hope whatever comes is a fast mover, if that front stalls out on top of central florida we could see some trouble
Quoting Grothar:
Most reliable models currently have 90L moving east over Central Florida and moving down along the East coast of Florida.



If that blob comes back to Alabama, I'm going to find the COC and personally strangle it until it's really, truly, dead. :)
Quoting fireflymom:This should be a pole, it is the political season. Leslie is trying hard to claim her piece of Atlantic real estate.

I would add fourth class for myself--Weather Flunkie

" A weather junkie with no knowledge"---unlike most on this blog!!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
you know..its like west palm beach has a bullseye painted on it these last few weeks huh
Snow
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


That's awful....

water quality in the St. Lucie and Indian River lagoons has gone to hell in a handbasket.. and will get worse as they dump Okeechobee water on us.
Quoting HoraceDebussyJones:
Quoting fireflymom:This should be a pole, it is the political season. Leslie is trying hard to claim her piece of Atlantic real estate.

I would add fourth class for myself--Weather Flunkie

" A weather junkie with no knowledge"---unlike most on this blog!!
and add a 5th one..people who just care about other people in harms way, and listen im not..climbing no pole LOL
Quoting sar2401:


If that blob comes back to Alabama, I'm going to find the COC and personally strangle it until it's really, truly, dead. :)



?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Snow
oh man send some of that MY way will ya..humidty and heat wise its terrible here..come'on fall hurry up here
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Sometimes it's the sloppy systems that can dump the most rain.


True, the heaviest rain we ever got in recent times here was from a depression, not a hurricane. Got to watch those sloppy ones, Geoff.
Quoting Grothar:



?
some of the models do send it back to the northern gulf coast..but better ones say central florida
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah it's hard to tell what will happen. I do think it will be a pretty large rain maker. Coastal areas tend to get the most with these setups so I think we will see a lot. Flooding never really get's that bad in Pinellas because the ocean is always nearby for the excess water to drain off. We have seen enough rain this summer to flood a a home underwater several times over but we have only seen short term street flooding about 20+ times this summer but it never gets really bad and quickly drains off after it's done raining, often as early as later in the day.


We had a nice little storm here in Madeira Beach today, brief but fun to watch with the sideways rain and a neighbors outdoor umbrella getting turned inside out :)
Quoting indianrivguy:


Up until Dennis riled up the Gulf, I was seeing shrimp with lesions from crude oil on nearly every delivery to the tackle shop I work in.


but you know they ( BP ) says its all good and our gulf is safe.........i live near the beach and i know what they have done to cover up the oil.. sand sifters, ect... and now they have just about pulled everyone saying the job is done... and its not ..... to many dead dolphins.... and dont say it was the cold weather ... last winter was warm....this is a hot topic for me as i grew up on the beaches and loved taking my grandbabies to put them right in as soon as we could the oldest was a week old and her toes went in the sand and water.. the youngest well he will be one in nov and i have yet to put his toes in... i want my grandbabies to know the beach and love it... now back to the tropics and 90 l let it bring more of the oil up so we can clean up our beach...
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
355 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-062100-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
355 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 5 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING NEAR THESE STORMS.
For me!! A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4:45PM EDT THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 06
Yes of course that's great :((((((((((

NOT ONLY PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
BUT ALSO CLOUDS. STRONG CAPPING HOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
For me!! A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4:45PM EDT THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 06


HERE IS DRY AIR WARNING
Quoting Grothar:
Most reliable models currently have 90L moving east over Central Florida and moving down along the East coast of Florida.



Here's the numbers to back that up. The models that start with the letters A & T are outperforming the other models so far on 90L.
Quoting RitaEvac:


They must read the blog because there's no way that term is used anywhere.


LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
MDR is dead = dead blog
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
401 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 356 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELLE
GLADE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
BELLE GLADE...
LOXAHATCHEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...
LION COUNTRY SAFARI...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY INSIDE AWAY
FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
Quoting unknowncomic:
This does not look good.


ya well, i would REALLY like a CAT 5 in the middle of the Atlantic that looks spectacular and kicks up a HUGE swell but does not hit land!!
Quoting sar2401:


If that blob comes back to Alabama, I'm going to find the COC and personally strangle it until it's really, truly, dead. :)

Nothing quite like a nice strangulation reference in the afternoon. With a smiley no less.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Snow

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE!!! I WANT SNOW!!!!
As for 90L, well it is called DEAD arent we getting to DMIN though???
Considering tropics are between 23N and 23S THEN WE CAN SAY THAT TROPICS ARE DEAD. What's going on! Where is the MJO!
Bad storm for Eastern great Lakes and surrounding areas..
Not sure if this has been posted yet.

Quoting hydrus:
Bad storm for Eastern great Lakes and surrounding areas..
yeah and alot of warning out up there too
Quoting gulfcoastmom1969:


but you know they ( BP ) says its all good and our gulf is safe.........i live near the beach and i know what they have done to cover up the oil.. sand sifters, ect... and now they have just about pulled everyone saying the job is done... and its not ..... to many dead dolphins.... and dont say it was the cold weather ... last winter was warm....this is a hot topic for me as i grew up on the beaches and loved taking my grandbabies to put them right in as soon as we could the oldest was a week old and her toes went in the sand and water.. the youngest well he will be one in nov and i have yet to put his toes in... i want my grandbabies to know the beach and love it... now back to the tropics and 90 l let it bring more of the oil up so we can clean up our beach...


I know exactly how you feel...

The Feds filed suit yesterday;
Business BP Deepwater Horizon: US ramps up rhetoric on BP over oil spill Link

Clash of the Seabreezes in East Central Florida
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
421 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

FLC099-062045-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-120906T2045Z/
PALM BEACH FL-
421 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 417 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LION
COUNTRY SAFARI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
Quoting LargoFl:
you know..its like west palm beach has a bullseye painted on it these last few weeks huh
You got that right Largo
Quoting indianrivguy:


That's awful....

water quality in the St. Lucie and Indian River lagoons has gone to hell in a handbasket.. and will get worse as they dump Okeechobee water on us.
Indianriver........ That's such a shame.... The Intracoastal down south of you where I live is pretty nasty all of the time. Maybe we should all meet at Captain Hiram's and discuss the issue.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
You got that right Largo
hope you guys dont get more flooding from all this coming the next several days, you've had enough,gee
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
430 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
JOHNSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER GARNER...OR OVER RALEIGH...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW HOPE...
KNIGHTDALE...
CLAYTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL WILL DAMAGE VEHICLES...WINDOWS AND SOME ROOFS. SEVERE
WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE MOBILE
HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
Hurricane Michael is the first Category 3 in the Atlantic basin this season, but if I remember correctly, wasn't Michael early on in it's life forecast to weaken and then die out when it was only a minimal strength tropical storm? If so, WHY was the forecast so far off?
Quoting indianrivguy:


That's awful....

water quality in the St. Lucie and Indian River lagoons has gone to hell in a handbasket.. and will get worse as they dump Okeechobee water on us.


What really gets me is when I compare Stuart inlet to Jupiter inlet. It's night and day. Army Corps of Engineers need to let lake O flow SOUTH like it's supposed to!
just once I'd like to see this in the night sky!
Quoting LargoFl:
just once I'd like to see this in the night sky!
Largo, Spent 2 long years at Eielson AFB with my ex... It was cold, but the lights were wonderful
Yes you do Largo! It's so worth taking a trip north to see it, but it is so hit and miss, you pretty much have to go last minute. Still worth it imo though
Quoting Hoff511:
Yes you do Largo! It's so worth taking a trip north to see it, but it is so hit and miss, you pretty much have to go last minute. Still worth it imo though
wow sure must be beautiful to see, especially on a clear night..maybe someday
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Largo, Spent 2 long years at Eielson AFB with my ex... It was cold, but the lights were wonderful
gee,they never happen down here, wow what an amazing event it would be here
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Indianriver........ That's such a shame.... The Intracoastal down south of you where I live is pretty nasty all of the time. Maybe we should all meet at Captain Hiram's and discuss the issue.


Where's down there? Lake Worth?

We've got some serious issues up here. A large die off of seagrass meadows in the central lagoon, and now the added burden of Okeechobee Lake discharges in the southern lagoon and St. Lucie. Its a tough time for a lot of the lil' sea creatures right now.



Quoting LargoFl:
just once I'd like to see this in the night sky!


So would I ..... It has been on my todo list for years!
amazing pic here too....Mars
Quoting hydrus:
Bad storm for Eastern great Lakes and surrounding areas..

Oh goody, just what I need, a bad storm.
I don't think we would want an event so strong as to see them down here. It'd be pretty to look at, but pretty destructive too.
Quoting Hoff511:
I don't think we would want an event so strong as to see them down here. It'd be pretty to look at, but pretty destructive too.
yes that was taken yesterday i think, particles from a solar flare hitting our magnetic field
Quoting LargoFl:
just once I'd like to see this in the night sky!


In Norway, we would see them almost every night in the winter. Sometimes they would last all night.



This is over Trondheim

It's Never Sunny in Florida.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Grothar:


In Norway, we would see them almost every night in the winter. Sometimes they would last all night.



This is over Trondheim

oh my, I'd be sitting out there all night long watching that show
This is a strong/ fun storm to track but luckily not affecting anyone.
Quoting Hoff511:


What really gets me is when I compare Stuart inlet to Jupiter inlet. It's night and day. Army Corps of Engineers need to let lake O flow SOUTH like it's supposed to!


I agree, but sugar money makes that unlikely. Nice shot of you in the North Prong. A lot of storm water coming through now, and more is probable.

Largo.. beautiful image.. we feel the same.. its on my bucket list.

If it WERE visible here, it might be accompanied by the total collapse of all things electrical from the epic solar storm that brought them this far south.
Quoting sar2401:


Yes, seriously. First, my comment was directed at only one thing, clearly flawed hurricane season number forecasting. You expanded that to "weather and climate forecasts", commiting the logical fallacy of killing the messenger for something he didn't say. Continuing to issue forecasts that have been shown to be no better than chance are not forecasts, they are guesses. You test theories among other scientists, test them against actual results, and release results to the public when the theories have been shown to have some validity. The quotes are precisely because the people who do this are not behaving like scientists, they are paid guessers. They could at least include a probability of their forecast being correct, but something like 50/50 doesn't sound very scientific....because it isn't.

You always get you panties in a wad when anyone questions "educated, degreed, and experienced tropical meteorologists", but none of their education, degrees, or experience means squat when they continue to be wrong more often than right. Believe it or not, some of us other than you really do have some education in the scientific method, and understand the difference between guessing and science. Imagine what the reaction would be if scientists that design tires kept guessing about how they would perform, released them to the public, and then modified their guesses depending on how many tires failed? You test these theories first and release tires to the public when the statistical outcomes are at least better than chance. Are saying seriously that hurricane season forecasting matches your definition of science?

I have a lot of respect for your education and knowledge, but your condescending attitude towards me and other blog members when it comes to questioning your definition of truth really sticks in my craw. Your use of the term "sarcastic scare quotes" is a perfect example.
(I don't know whether you'll see this, as a new blog post is up. But I don't want to pollute that one, so I'll leave this one here.)

It's been my experience that people who place the word scientists in scare quotes aren't dealing fairly to begin with, so when they accuse someone who questions their reasoning for doing so of committing a logical fallacy, that really does ring hollow.

As to "getting my panties in a wad": first, I seldom wear panties (though congrats for using an elementary school phrase I thought went out with disco). But when they do "get in a wad" is when people far less educated in the meteorological and climatological sciences than the experts at the NHC and NOAA--and with far fewer higher level degrees in those sciences, and with far less experience in the field, and with far less pressure on them due to their use of anonymous forum handles--insult or belittle that education, and those degrees, and that experience. Now, this is an open forum, for the most part, so feel free to continue bashing those folks. But just know that some of us bristle at such unfair and unfounded treatment of those professionals, so we're likely to rise to their defense.

(Your tire analogy falls, er, flat, by the way. Every mainstream tire manufacturer has an entire department dedicated solely to improving their products' treadwear, traction, and handling. The tires are field tested, tweaked, tested some more, tweaked some more, and so on, for however many iterations it takes to make them right.)

Bottom line: yes, I am most definitely saying that hurricane season forecasting--that is, forecasting by the likes of the UK Met Office, NOAA, Drs Gray and Klotzbach, etc.--matches my definition of science. But far more importantly, it matches the dictionary's definition, as well.

(BTW, I'm sorry you were offended by my use of the term "scare quotes". But that's what they're called. My usage of terminology with which some may be unfamiliar isn't condescension; it's just me striving to use the most correct and economical word or phrase available. Anyway, when one encounters strange terminology while reading, isn't it best to simply research that term instead of accusing the writer of condescension?)

Have a good evening...
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing pic here too....Mars


The "Forbidden Fruit" of Planetology.