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90L heads for North Carolina, drenches Bermuda; oil spill changing little

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:54 PM GMT on May 24, 2010

An extratropical low pressure system (90L) between the Bahamas and Bermuda is moving north-northwest towards North Carolina and is close to tropical storm strength. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained ENE winds of 36 mph, gusting to 43 mph this morning. Bermuda is seeing some heavy weather from this storm, with winds blowing at 35 mph on the west end of the island, and the Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain moving over the island. Seas are running 5 - 10 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today, and are expected to increase to 10 - 14 feet tonight before diminishing on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 25 knots of wind shear over 90L, but the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L does not have a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. I expect that 90L will continue to grow more subtropical in nature today through Wednesday as the shear continues to fall. Sea surface temperatures are near 25°C today and will fall to 23 - 24°C on Tuesday. This is warm enough to support a subtropical storm, but probably not a tropical storm. On Wednesday, 90L will be nearing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and SSTs will warm again, to the 24 - 25°C range. This is still pretty cool for a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will never become fully tropical. To understand the difference between a tropical and subtropical storm and why we care, see my subtropical storm tutorial.

The SHIPS model predicts that shear will fall to the medium 10 - 20 knot range by Tuesday. A large amount of dry air to 90L's southwest associated with the upper-level trough of low pressure on top of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite loops , will hamper transition of 90L to a subtropical or tropical storm. The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 200 - 400 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, as it appears that it will remain offshore and will become, at worst, a 40 - 50 mph subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a medium (30% chance) of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Western Caribbean disturbance
A small region of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean, off the east coast of Nicaragua. Moisture is expected to increase across in this area in the coming days, and by Saturday, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that shear will drop low enough to permit the possible development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression. This storm would then move northeastward over eastern Cuba early next week. The other models keep the shear high in the Caribbean all week, and do not show anything developing. Thus, the Western Caribbean bears watching later this week, but the conditions appear marginal for development.

Moderate risk of severe weather today in northern Plains
The Storm Prediction Center has placed western Nebraska and portions of South and North Dakota under their "Moderate" risk for severe weather today. They warn that "a couple of strong and possibly long-track tornadoes appear possible given the forecast scenario." Keep an eye on the activity today with our Severe Weather Page.

Major oil threat continues for the coast of Louisiana
Light winds are expected to prevail across the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting in continued oiling threats to the Louisiana shoreline from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. There is no longer a flow of oil moving southwards towards the Loop Current, and the oil that did move southwards last week was mostly entrained into a counter-clockwise rotating eddy attached to the northern boundary of the Loop Current. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery over the weekend showed that most of this oil has dispersed, and very little of this oil is now visible from space (Figure 2.) Imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and from NOAA aircraft did not show any oil in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys over the weekend, so that is good news. NOAA comments that there may be some "scattered tar balls" in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys. I expect these scattered tar balls have completed the full loop of the Loop Current and are now headed east towards the Keys, and will pass the Dry Tortugas and Key West sometime Wednesday - Saturday. My guess is that the oil and its accompanying plume of toxic dispersants will be too thin and scattered to cause significant problems in the Keys.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 11:41am EDT Saturday May 22, 2010, by the European Envisat-1 satellite. Only scattered patches of oil are evident in the counter-clockwise rotating eddy on the northern boundary of the Loop Current. A small amount of oil appears to be in the Loop Current, and is moving southward. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Future threats to the Keys
Mostly offshore winds are expected this week over the northern Gulf of Mexico, thanks to the approach of the 90L storm along the Southeast U.S. coast. It is uncertain if these winds will be strong enough to push oil southward into the Loop Current, though at least one ocean trajectory model does show this occurring. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. At least one ocean model (the Global HYCOM model from the HYCOM consortium) is predicting that such an eddy will form this week. In the event a Loop Current Eddy does break off, it would create a rotating ring of water 250 miles in diameter to the south of the oil spill. Oil moving southwards would tend to enter the giant eddy and circulate around it, not threatening any land areas. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Thus we can expect that a portion of any oil moving southwards into a Loop Current Eddy will find its way into the Loop Current and move past the Florida Keys.

Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back with a new post Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
lol. I see you are receiving rain quite regularly now. A new government? I hope the one you get is a good one Pott.

Me Too!!!
Quoting sarahjola:

good! the last thing we need is a storm stirring up all that oil.


Yeah. Hopefully conditions stay unfavorable until at least August, at which point they will hopefully have the oil well capped.
Agreed Kman...I dont suppose anyone knows where storms will make landfall this year,,active or otherwise only steering patterns will determine that
Quoting stormhank:
Agreed Kman...I dont suppose anyone knows where storms will make landfall this year,,active or otherwise only steering patterns will determine that


Not even the shadow knows LOL
Well folks I'm out for tonight. Watched the end of Lost last night so it looks like two and a half men tonight LOL.

Take care. catch you all tomorrow.
Quoting stormhank:
Agreed Kman...I dont suppose anyone knows where storms will make landfall this year,,active or otherwise only steering patterns will determine that
Each season is different. I don't recall seeing a season with the same amount of systems making landfall in the same place, so a "pattern" really isn't useful, I guess it's one of those "time will tell" type of things.
I hope by the heart of hurricane season that oil spill will be resolved,,never the less if a major hurricane passed thru the gulf it would be awful ... fact being i dont see a oil spill weakining a storm with tides and winds and such...
Quoting Orcasystems:
BP continues using oil dispersant EPA told it to replace


WASHINGTON — BP chief executive Tony Hayward Monday defended his company's use of a chemical agent to disperse the oil leaking from a well deep under the Gulf of Mexico, despite an Environmental Protection Agency order for BP to stop using it.

The company has applied more than 600,000 gallons of the chemical, called Corexit, since the oil spill began more than a month ago, and Hayward said its use would continue. The EPA last week ordered the company to switch to a less toxic dispersant by Sunday.

"We have used dispersants from the beginning that are on the EPA approved list,” he said. "Everything we do with dispersants is with the explicit approval with the EPA."...............


I'm confused :(


From another article:
In his letter, Suttles said the only other dispersant available in sufficient quantities was Sea Brat No. 4, which contains "a small amount" of a chemical that could degrade to a nonylphonol, which has been identified by governmental agencies as "potential endocrine disruptors" that "may persist in the environment for a period of years."

From the wiki on nonylphonol:
Nonylphenol is considered to be an endocrine disruptor due to weak ability to mimic estrogen and in turn disrupt the natural balance of hormones in a given organism. The effect is weak because nonylphenols are not very close structural mimics of estradiol, but the levels of nonylphenol are sufficiently high to compensate.
Structure of the hormone estradiol and one of the nonylphenols.

Occurrence in the environment

Nonylphenol has been detected widely in waste water streams across the globe, which is a concern since it is toxic to many aquatic organisms. For example, nonylphenol has been detected both in the Great Lakes and in the region of New York City. In 1984, the formation of 4-nonylphenols from nonylphenol ethoxylates in wastewater treatment plants was first discovered. Nonylphenol is persistent in the environment, therefore lingers with the potential to negatively affect organisms it comes in contact with. Nonylphenol also bioaccumulates, which is dangerous to animals and humans who eat meat.

Environmental protection policies

Nonylphenol and nonyphenol ethoxylates have been banned in the European Union as a hazard to human and environmental safety.

For freshwater ecosystems, the Environmental Protection Agency has set two types of standards: the first which is considered acute criteria is one-hour average concentration of nonylphenol does not exceed 28 μg/L more than once every three years on the average.

For saltwater ecosystems, the standard is considered to be chronic criteria and is set to four-day average concentration of nonylphenol that does not exceed 6.6 μg/l more than once every three years on the average.

atmo: Years? Bioaccumulation? Danger to animals and humans? So, if BP's point about the EPA's choice is accurate, it is hard to believe that the oil itself is worse than this dispersant. (assuming for the moment we are getting accurate information)
Quoting Weather456:
Consider all possibilities....it may be an EPAC event also.


GFS thinks so. Pretty good EPAC TS, then crossing over and redeveloping, moving ENE over cuba then East through the whole atlantic and if it somehow survives, stalling in the east atlantic
Link
Quoting atmoaggie:

My office is an odd place. If you told me a tornado was coming, I'd park somewhere else, but I wouldn't be worried about being in the building.
Former A-bomb-resistant cold war era DoD building...


I went to grade school at Saint Margret Mary. It was always comforting to know that I wouldn't have a clue if a nuclear war DID start. :P
1011. ackee
anyone suprise how high shear levels continue to be even thow we are expecting active seasons
Quoting MrstormX:


Thankfully the tornados happened in a relatively isolated area.

Yes, most of the tornadoes occurred in rural ND, SD, NE, KS, and TX.

I was fortunate enough to see 2 different tornadoes, live as they happened, via 2 different storm chasers on severestudios.com. They were both large wedge tornadoes, probably of the EF-2 or EF-3 variety. Both occurred in SD, in open rural countryside.
**OFF-TOPIC**
I know TampaSpin does not like this score, but I certainly do. Go Sox!
Quoting ackee:
anyone suprise how high shear levels continue to be even thow we are expecting active seasons


Im not, its only May and I expect the shear to drop pretty quickly over the next few weeks

Quoting errantlythought:


I went to grade school at Saint Margret Mary. It was always comforting to know that I wouldn't have a clue if a nuclear war DID start. :P

So you know the place (my office). Right there within sight of your old school...corner of Robert and Guase.
Now I'm really out, good night!
1017. gator23
Pressure rises a little bit and this blog dies. LOL
Quoting gator23:
Pressure rises a little bit and this blog dies. LOL


Well, I obviously can't speak for others, but I have other reasons aside from pressure rises to think that 90L is done.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Well, I obviously can't speak for others, but I have other reasons aside from pressure rises to think that 90L is done.


The overall satellite presentation has degraded markedly since this morning.
1020. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I think Grothar is older than all of us. I think he was the Marconi operator on the Carpathia.


haha, You know-it-all. I was on the Californian sound asleep. Just stick to the weather. LOL
Quoting atmoaggie:

So you know the place (my office). Right there within sight of your old school...corner of Robert and Guase.


Quite. My father was in SAC, and worked for Dyn Macdermot after he retired. So I was privy to what that building actually was. (I always wondered, as a kid, why there were dragon's teeth) I was wondering when you said 16 feet below ground, because that's the only place I know of that even HAS a basement.
90L going going ......
1023. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
90L going going ......

gone.........
1024. SLU
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
90L going going ......


.... gone
1025. Ossqss
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
90L going going ......


Don't forget it could be an issue for the shipping lanes in its future..

Delayed sorry :)

1026. SLU
Hey pottery .. how's the weather in TnT tonight? .. will be heading your way in a few months to continue my studies.

How's the election shaping up 2night?
Quoting Ossqss:


Don't forget it could be an issue for the shipping lanes in its future..
nothing they don't deal with on a regular basis
1028. pottery
Quoting SLU:
Hey pottery .. how's the weather in TnT tonight? .. will be heading your way in a few months to continue my studies.

How's the election shaping up 2night?

Weather is fantastic, clear sky and the moon is dominant.
Glad to hear you are coming here, let me know when and where.
The Opposition Alliance has won the election, about 30 seats to 11.
New Prime Minister is Mrs. Kamla Persad-Bissessar. A Hindu lady, with wide support.
I hope she can deal with this Crazy place LOL
90L is not gone, still needs to get near the Gulf Stream, it has a low chance on bringing a surprise but we've had many surprises in the past. Just because the NHC gives a low chance doesn't mean it's totally gone. 90L is blowing some convection for once near the center.
Quoting reedzone:
90L is not gone, still needs to get near the Gulf Stream, it has a low chance on bringing a surprise but we've had many surprises in the past. Just because the NHC gives a low chance doesn't mean it's totally gone. 90L is blowing some convection for once near the center.
ok you keep watchin let the rest of us know if something starts happening
1031. SLU
Quoting pottery:

Weather is fantastic, clear sky and the moon is dominant.
Glad to hear you are coming here, let me know when and where.
The Opposition Alliance has won the election, about 30 seats to 11.
New Prime Minister is Mrs. Kamla Persad-Bissessar. A Hindu lady, with wide support.
I hope she can deal with this Crazy place LOL



Yeh that's good. Congrats to her. Pretty major win too. Let's hope they can deal with the issues .... and in Jamaica too where things seem to be getting worse. Seems they're gonna shift the cricket from JA .... Send the games to St. Lucia!!
Ok, there is something thats not making sense to me.. What may become 91L is in the epac. Its moving NW. How will that direction put it in the SW Caribbean?
1033. Ossqss
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nothing they don't deal with on a regular basis


Not sure about that yet. Big movement of water out there, less convection, still pretty potent and will be for some time. The bouys are showing some stuff :)

Station 41048 - W Bermuda
1034. xcool
NHC pulling the plugs no lies
1035. SLU
Quoting Weather456:
Consider all possibilities....it may be an EPAC event also.



Nice to have you here 456. Might be a season you dont want to miss ..... and one we can't afford not to have you around too
Quoting Ossqss:


Not sure about that yet. Big movement of water out there, less convection, still pretty potent and will be for some time. The bouys are showing some stuff :)

Station 41048 - W Bermuda
they have been well informed

WEATHER ADVISORY:
VACAPES OP AREA VALID 251200Z THROUGH 270000Z:
SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD 9 TO 12 FT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST OPAREA
BY 251200Z WITH THE 9 TO 12 FT SEAS EXPANDING NORTHWARD TO 37N EAST
OF 75W BY 260000Z. SEAS BUILD 11-15FT SOUTH OF 35N (SOUTHERN VACAPES)
BY 260000Z. CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE OPAREA THROUGH 261200Z THEN
SLOWLY ABATE 8 TO 10 FT BY 270000Z WITH CONTINUED ABATEMENT THEREAFTER.
CHERRY POINT OPAREA VALID 251200Z THROUGH 271200Z:
SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD 9 TO 12 FT IN THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE
MODLOC BY 251200Z SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MODLOC
BY 260000Z WITH SEAS BUILDING 11 TO 15 FT IN THE EXTREME EASTERN MODLOC.
CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE OPAREA THROUGH 270000Z THEN SLOWLY ABATE 8
TO 10 FT BY 271200Z WITH CONTINUED ABATEMENT THEREAFTER.
CHARLESTON OPAREA VALID 251800Z THROUGH 271200Z:
SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD 9 TO 12 FT IN THE EXTREME EASTERN MODLOC
BY 251800Z SPREADING WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OPAREA BY 260000Z. SEAS IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST MODLOC BUILD 11 TO 15 FT BY 260600Z. CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH 270000Z THEN SLOWLY ABATE 8 TO 10 FT IN THE EXTREME
EASTERN MODLOC BY 271200Z WITH CONTINUE ABATEMENT THEREAFTER.
JACKSONVILLE OPAREA VALID 251800Z THROUGH 271200Z:
SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD 9 TO 12 FT IN THE EXTREME EASTERN MODLOC BY 251800Z
SPREADING WESTWARD TO 80-30W BY 260600Z AS SEAS IN THE NORTHEAST OPAREA
BUILD 11 TO 15FT. CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH 270000Z THEN SLOWLY ABATE 8
TO 10 FT EAST OF 80W BY 271200Z WITH CONTINUED ABATEMENT THEREAFTER.
2. SHOULD CONDITIONS FORECAST NOT BE ACCEPTABLE, OTSR ADVISES ALL UNITS
OPERATING IN AFFECTED OPAREAS, WHOSE OPERATIONAL LIMITS ARE MET OR
EXCEEDED, MOVE TO PROTECTED WATERS PRIOR TO ONSET ON HIGH SEAS.
3. REQUEST ACTION ADDRESSES ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.
4. METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION AT 241200Z:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST INFLUENCING THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA WILL
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
THROUGHOUT THE OPAREAS.
5. VACAPES OPAREA 24 HOUR FORECAST COMMENCING 250000Z.
A. SKY, WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MIST, RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND PATCHY FOG.
B. VSBY (NM): 7, REDUCING 3 TO 5 IN RAINSHOWERS, 2 TO 4 IN MIST,
1 TO 3 IN THUNDERSTORMS, FURTHER REDUCING LESS THAN 1 IN FOG.
C. SURFACE WIND (KTS): NORTHWESTERN OPAREA: EAST-NORTHEAST 10 TO 15
GUSTS 20, INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY 25/06Z,
THROUGH END OF PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERN OPAREA: EAST-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25, INCREASING
EAST-NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 25/06Z, FURTHER INCREASING EAST-
NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 GUSTS 40 BY 25/12Z THROUGH END OF PERIOD. EXPECT
GUSTS 40 IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
D. COMBINED SEAS (FT): COASTAL: SOUTHEAST 4 TO 6, BUILDING SOUTHEAST
5 TO 7 BY 25/12Z, BUILDING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 BY 25/18Z, FURTHER
BUILDING SOUTHEAST 7 TO 9 BY 26/00Z.
SEAWARD: SOUTHEAST 7 TO 9, BUILDING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 12 BY 25/06Z,
FURTHER BUILDING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 14 BY 25/12Z, BUILDING SOUTHEAST
11 TO 15 IN THE SOUTHERN OPAREA AFTER 25/18Z.
E. MAX/MIN TEMPS (F): 76/65.
F. SST(F/C): COASTAL: 61/16. VICINITY OF GULF STREAM: 76/24.
G. OUTLOOK TO 48 HOURS: WINDS: NORTHWESTERN OPAREA: EAST-NORTHEAST
15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST 18 TO 23 GUSTS 28 BY
26/06Z, DECREASING NORTHEAST 13 TO 18 GUSTS 23 BY 27/00Z.
SOUTHEASTERN OPAREA: EAST-NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 GUSTS 40, DECREASING
EAST-NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 26/06Z, FURTHER DECREASING EAST-
NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 30 BY 26/18Z THROUGH END OF PERIOD.
SEAS: COASTAL: SOUTHEAST 7 TO 9, ABATING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 BY 27/00Z.
SEAWARD: SOUTHEAST 11 TO 15, ABATING 8 TO 10 BY 27/00Z.
6. CHERRY PT OPAREA 24 HOUR FORECAST COMMENCING 250000Z.
A. SKY, WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MIST, RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND PATCHY FOG.
B. VSBY (NM): 7, REDUCING 3 TO 5 IN RAINSHOWERS, 2 TO 4 IN MIST,
1 TO 3 IN THUNDERSTORMS, FURTHER REDUCING LESS THAN 1 IN FOG.
C. SURFACE WIND (KTS): EAST-NORTHEAST 18 TO 23 GUSTS 28, INCREASING
NORTHEAST 23 TO 28 GUSTS 38 BY 25/06Z, FURTHER INCREASING NORTHEAST
25 TO 30 GUSTS 40 BY 25/12Z, THROUGH END OF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTS 40
IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
D. COMBINED SEAS (FT): COASTAL: SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7, BUILDING SOUTHEAST
7 TO 9 BY 25/12Z, FURTHER BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 BY 26/00Z.
SEAWARD: SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10, BUILDING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 12 BY 25/06Z,
FURTHER BUILDING SOUTHEAST 12 TO 14 BY 25/12Z, EAST-SOUTHEAST 11
TO 15 AFTER 25/18Z.
E. MAX/MIN TEMPS (F): 76/66.
F. SST (F/C): COASTAL:63/17. VICINITY OF GULF STREAM: 74/23.
G. OUTLOOK TO 48 HOURS: WINDS: NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 GUSTS 40,
DECREASING NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 26/06Z THROUGH END OF
FORECAST.
SEAS: COASTAL: EAST-SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10.
SEAWARD: EAST-SOUTHEAST 11 TO 15, ABATING 9 TO 12 BY 27/00Z.
7. CHARLESTON OPAREA 24 HOUR FORECAST COMMENCING 250000Z.
A. SKY, WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MIST, RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
B. VSBY (NM): 7, REDUCING 3 TO 5 IN RAINSHOWERS, 2 TO 4 IN MIST,
FURTHER REDUCING 1 TO 3 IN THUNDERSTORMS.
C. SURFACE WIND (KTS): WINDS: EAST-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25,
BACKING NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 25/12Z, FURTHER INCREASING
NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 GUSTS 40 BY 25/18Z. EXPECT GUSTS 40 IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
D. COMBINED SEAS (FT): COASTAL: SOUTHEAST 2 TO 4, BUILDING SOUTHEAST
3 TO 5 BY 25/06Z, FURTHER BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEAST 4 TO 6 BY 25/12Z,
FURTHER BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 BY 25/18Z.
SEAWARD: SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8, BUILDING SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 BY 25/06Z,
FURTHER BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEAST 10 TO 12 BY 25/12Z, BUILDING EAST-
SOUTHEAST 12 TO 14 BY 26/00Z.
E. MAX/MIN TEMPS (F): 82/70.
F. SST (F/C): COASTAL: 76/24.
G. OUTLOOK TO 48 HOURS: WINDS: NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 GUSTS 40,
DECREASING NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 26/06Z, VEERING NORTH-
NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 26/18Z.
SEAS: COASTAL: EAST-SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7, BUILDING EAST 7 TO 9 BY
26/06Z, ABATING EAST 6 TO 8 BY 26/12Z, FURTHER ABATING EAST 5 TO 7
BY 26/18Z.
SEAWARD: BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEAST 11 TO 15 EASTERN OPAREA EARLY IN PERIOD.
8. JAX OPAREA 24 HOUR FORECAST COMMENCING 250000Z.
A. SKY, WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MIST, RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
B. VSBY (NM): 7, REDUCING 3 TO 5 IN RAINSHOWERS, 2 TO 4 IN MIST,
FURTHER REDUCING 1 TO 3 IN THUNDERSTORMS.
C. SURFACE WIND (KTS): WINDS: WESTERN OPAREA: EAST-NORTHEAST 8 TO 13,
INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST 13 TO 18 GUSTS 23 BY 25/06Z, BACKING
NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY 25/12Z, FURTHER INCREASING NORTHEAST
20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 25/18Z, FURTHER INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST
25 TO 30 GUSTS 40 BY 26/00Z.
EASTERN OPAREA: EAST-NORTHEAST 18 TO 23 GUSTS 28, VEERING NORTHEAST
18 TO 23 GUSTS 28 BY 25/06Z, INCREASING NORTHEAST 23 TO 28 GUSTS 38
BY 25/12Z THROUGH END OF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTS 40 IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
D. COMBINED SEAS (FT): COASTAL: EAST-SOUTHEAST 2 TO 4, BUILDING EAST-
SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 BY 25/12Z, BUILDING EAST 4 TO 6 BY 26/00Z.
SEAWARD: EAST-SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8, BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 BY
25/06Z, FURTHER BUILDING EAST 9 TO 12 BY 25/18Z.
E. MAX/MIN TEMPS (F): 86/75.
F. SST (F/C): COASTAL: 73/22. VICINITY OF GULF STREAM: 75/24.
G. OUTLOOK TO 48 HOURS: WINDS: WESTERN OPAREA: NORTH-NORTHEAST
25 TO 30 GUSTS 40, DECREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY
26/06Z, FURTHER DECREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY
26/18Z.
EASTERN OPAREA: NORTHEAST 23 TO 28 GUSTS 38, DECREASING NORTHEAST
20 TO 25 GUSTS 30 BY 26/06Z, FURTHER DECREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST
15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY 26/18Z, INCREASING NORTHERLY 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35
BY 27/00Z.
SEAS: COASTAL: EAST 4 TO 6, BUILDING EAST 5 TO 7 BY 26/06Z, FURTHER
ABATING EAST-NORTHEAST 4 TO 6 BY 27/00Z.
SEAWARD: EAST 9 TO 12 BUILDING NORTH-NORTHEAST 11 TO 15 IN THE
NORTHEAST OPAREA EARLY IN PERIOD.
9. PORT CANAVERAL OPAREA 24 HOUR FORECAST COMMENCING 250000Z.
A. SKY, WEATHER: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
B. CLOUDS: BASES/TOPS (FT): 3,000/15,000
SHWERS: BASES/TOPS (FT): 2,000/24,000
TSTMS: BASES/TOPS (FT): 1,000/40,000
C. VSBY (NM): 7, 3 TO 5 IN RAINSHOWERS, 1 TO 3 IN THUNDERSTORMS
D. SURFACE WIND (KTS): EAST-NORTHEAST 8 TO 13, BACKING NORTHEAST
8 TO 13 BY 25/06Z, INCREASING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 GUSTS 20 BY 25/18Z,
FURTHER INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY 26/00Z.
EXPECT GUSTS 40 IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
E. COMBINED SEAS (FT): EAST 4 TO 6, BUILDING EAST 5 TO 7 BY 25/12Z,
FURTHER BUILDING EAST-NORTHEAST 6 TO 8 BY 25/18Z, FURTHER BUILDING
EAST-NORTHEAST 8 TO 10 BY 26/00Z.
F. MAX/MIN TEMPS (F): 88/76.
G. SST (F/C): 75/24.
H. MIN ALT (INS): 29.86
I. MAX/MIN P.A. (FT): 121/38.
J. OUTLOOK TO 48 HOURS: WINDS: NORTH-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25,
BACKING NORTH-NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY 26/06Z, VEERING NORTH
13 TO 18 GUSTS 23 BY 27/00Z.
SEAS: EAST-NORTHEAST 8 TO 10 ABATING EAST-NORTHEAST 7 TO 9 BY 27/00Z.
1037. xcool


Thank you sir. I have been lurking for 5 years.. You would think that I would have learned something by now... lol
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Thank you sir. I have been lurking for 5 years.. You would think that I would have learned something by now... lol



JFV?
1041. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:



JFV?

Now, now, Taz!
LOL
1042. gator23
Quoting Tazmanian:



JFV?


Lol i did a double take myself.
No not JFV. Name is Adam. im in fort myers,fl and lived in cape coral during 2004/2005. Had a front row seat for Charley.
1044. Ossqss
Hummm, Mystery Shuttle sighting ? BTW, this link will probably change, so you may have to put the 24th in soon to view the second item. Don't overlook the item below it also and the 10% chance :) out>

http://spaceweather.com/
1045. gator23
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
No not JFV. Name is Adam. im in fort myers,fl and lived in cape coral during 2004/2005. Had a front row seat for Charley.


Welcome, where in Cape Coral do you live?
1046. pottery
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
No not JFV. Name is Adam. im in fort myers,fl and lived in cape coral during 2004/2005. Had a front row seat for Charley.

Welcome!
I am in Trinidad, just off the coast of Venezuela.
Not in cape coral anymore. I lived off of Pelican in the sw section of the cape. Now i live in fort myers. I75/Colonial Blvd area.
1049. gator23
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Not in cape coral anymore. I lived off of Pelican in the sw section of the cape. Now i live in fort myers. I75/Colonial Blvd area.


ok he checks out.
I figured i would speak up this season instead of just lurk. Its kind of funny because i know a bit about quite a few of you from watching over the years.. Yet no one is familiar with me at all. FWIW.. Im 31 and a Paramedic in Lee Co.
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
No not JFV. Name is Adam. im in fort myers,fl and lived in cape coral during 2004/2005. Had a front row seat for Charley.



ok
All aboard the naocoaster!

ok maybe someone can help me out with something. Every time i post, it takes me to the TOP of the page. I then have to scroll all the way down to the bottom. Is there a way to change that, to make it bring me to the last post instead of the 1st?
1056. pottery
OK
1057. xcool
lmao
1058. pottery
Click 'order posted' right above here..
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
ok maybe someone can help me out with something. Every time i post, it takes me to the TOP of the page. I then have to scroll all the way down to the bottom. Is there a way to change that, to make it bring me to the last post instead of the 1st?

You want the "newest first" just under dr M's post.
...unless I misread your gripe...
Looks like i have it on Newest First, yet it still takes me to the top of the page, with the newest post being at the bottom of the page.
1061. Dakster
I am assuming you are on a PC using internet explorer as that seems to be an IE thing... I have better luck with firefox... ALso, put IE in compatibility mode. It is the broken page icon next to the address bar.
1062. pottery
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Looks like i have it on Newest First, yet it still takes me to the top of the page, with the newest post being at the bottom of the page.

Try the other one then.
Quoting Dakster:
I am assuming you are on a PC using internet explorer as that seems to be an IE thing... I have better luck with firefox... ALso, put IE in compatibility mode. It is the broken page icon next to the address bar.

IE stands for Inept Explorer...
Im using a PC with Firefox. Looks like mym options are scroll down to the bottom after posting, or learn to read/keep up bottom to top.
1065. pottery
I am out.
Have a great night/early morning!
1066. Xyrus
Looks like 90L is trying to build a new COC around 30,72, northwest of the old one (using the Dvorak loop on NOAA). A little bit of convection near that point as well.

Not that it will amount to anything. :)

1067. Dakster
Quoting atmoaggie:

IE stands for Inept Explorer...


you get points for that good one.. :)
1068. hydrus
Quoting gator23:


ok he checks out.
I lived right by him at the Players club Apartments in the early 1990,s.
all so if you like firefox then you sould test firefox beta 4.0 comeing june 21st
This is just about the core of what wants to be an EPAC/WCAR blob.

Costa Rica's Arenal volcano has erupted, spewing geysers of lava, ash and toxic gases from its crater and forcing the evacuation of the national park where it is located. The 1633-metre-tall cone-shaped mountain in northern Costa Rica shuddered into activity at 4am this morning issuing eight successive rivers of lava that flowed down its steep slopes, National Volcanology and Seismology Observatory expert Elicer Duarte said. He said nobody was at risk from the eruptions but authorities as a precaution evacuated the Arenal National Park, 80km north-east of San Jose. The Arenal Volcano is one of Costa Rica's major tourist attractions and the park has scores of hotels, restaurants, nightclubs and shopping centres. No estimates were given of how many people were inside the park when the eruption began. Arenal's last major eruption in July 1968 killed 89 people. Smaller eruptions have occurred at least six times over the past 35 years.
1071. Levi32
Good evening all. I've been gone all day at high school graduation....just now catching up on 90L. It looks like the NHC is losing confidence in it.
1072. hydrus
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening all. I've been gone all day at high school graduation....just now catching up on 90L.
Wuzup Levi. I was just turning in. If you graduated tonight congratulations. If you have already graduated, congrats to the ones who did.;)
1073. hydrus
Quoting Skyepony:
This is just about the core of what wants to be an EPAC/WCAR blob.

Costa Rica's Arenal volcano has erupted, spewing geysers of lava, ash and toxic gases from its crater and forcing the evacuation of the national park where it is located. The 1633-metre-tall cone-shaped mountain in northern Costa Rica shuddered into activity at 4am this morning issuing eight successive rivers of lava that flowed down its steep slopes, National Volcanology and Seismology Observatory expert Elicer Duarte said. He said nobody was at risk from the eruptions but authorities as a precaution evacuated the Arenal National Park, 80km north-east of San Jose. The Arenal Volcano is one of Costa Rica's major tourist attractions and the park has scores of hotels, restaurants, nightclubs and shopping centres. No estimates were given of how many people were inside the park when the eruption began. Arenal's last major eruption in July 1968 killed 89 people. Smaller eruptions have occurred at least six times over the past 35 years.
That Arenal is one of the most active in the world according to Wiki.
1074. xcool


new ngp







gfs ooz

1075. Levi32
Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup Levi. I was just turning in. If you graduated tonight congratulations. If you have already graduated, congrats to the ones who did.;)


I did, and thank you :)
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening all. I've been gone all day at high school graduation....just now catching up on 90L. It looks like the NHC is losing confidence in it.


This is great to hear Levi. My high school graduation is June 4th. I myself was never impressed by 90L, even after it was upgraded to code orange. Marginal SSTs, high wind shear, and dry air intrusion are all features that do not really favor tropical cyclogenesis.

I am particularly interested in the SW Caribbean. The peak of the upward MJO phase will be around May 28th, and an upper level ridge might form over the region--providing favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation.
I think we might have the first straight figure from BP on the rate that oil is and has been pouring into the gulf.


From NOLA.com
The top kill process involves pumping fabricated "kill mud," which is about twice the density of water, into the well at 50 barrels a minute to overcome the flow.


If the mud flow rate in must be greater than or equal to the rate of oil/gas out, then you get an idea of the actual leak rate.


50bbls/min = 72,000 barrels or 3,024,000 gallons per day! Even if they're shooting for 20% over the (internal to BP) estimated flow rate, that's still 57,600bbls/day. I really wish BP would just come out and say what they know to be true.
1078. xcool



1079. Levi32
Quoting futuremet:


This is great to hear Levi. My high school graduation is June 4th. I myself was never impressed by 90L, even after it was upgraded to code orange. Marginal SSTs, high wind shear, and dry air intrusion are all features that do not really favor tropical cyclogenesis.

I am particularly interested in the SW Caribbean. The peak of the upward MJO phase will be around May 28th, and an upper level ridge might form over the region--providing favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation.


Thanks, and congrats on your upcoming graduation :)

Yeah I am less impressed with both features than I was a few days ago. I still think 90L has a good chance at pulling off subtropical development. It has 2-3 days to sit near the Gulf Stream under an upper low and Andrea in 2007 had just as much dry air. The only major limiting factor I see is the sheer size and broadness of the system. It will take a lot of effort to get a tight circulation.

The Caribbean may still be trouble, but most of the heat looks to be consolidating in the eastern Pacific, so we'll see.
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening all. I've been gone all day at high school graduation....just now catching up on 90L. It looks like the NHC is losing confidence in it.


Congrats on graduation

So what do you think of 90L
Also the EPAC has a yellow circle now and some models want to bring it across into the Caribbean in a few days as a classified system

I am not sure if you have even gotten a chance to look at things
That whole chain looks somewhat active..SO2 for the area..
Quoting Levi32:


Thanks, and congrats on your upcoming graduation :)

Yeah I am less impressed with both features than I was a few days ago. I still think 90L has a good chance at pulling off subtropical development. It has 2-3 days to sit near the Gulf Stream under an upper low and Andrea in 2007 had just as much dry air. The only major limiting factor I see is the sheer size and broadness of the system. It will take a lot of effort to get a tight circulation.

The Caribbean may still be trouble, but most of the heat looks to be consolidating in the eastern Pacific, so we'll see.


yea Levi but models first bring that area in the EPAC NW and then back to the NE across Central America and just north of Honduras over the next few days
1083. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Congrats on graduation

So what do you think of 90L
Also the EPAC has a yellow circle now and some models want to bring it across into the Caribbean in a few days as a classified system

I am not sure if you have even gotten a chance to look at things


Yeah lol I'm just now pouring over imagery. My first impressions are in post 1079. We shall see I guess.
It is currently 12:38 AM in Florida; I am very sleepy. Good night!
Levi~ Congrats:)

Evening Windsat
Quoting Skyepony:
Levi~ Congrats:)

Evening Windsat


I think that may be the best defined any circulation has been since 90L got going lol
1087. xcool



Quoting xcool:



1003 low in epac


Actually that is over Central America, not in the EPAC
new main circulation desperately trying to take over at 30N 72W, just east of the new blowup. You can't see it on the floater but you can see it here, especially in motion and speed up the loop to max speed. I still think it has a 50-75% chance. Dunno if I'll post again goodnight if not and we shall see tomorrow.

Link
1090. xcool
yeah thanks .opps my bad
3hrs later on ASCAT (and about 3 hrs ago)...if you can't stand to watch one be slaughtered by shear & dry air turn away..
Quoting xcool:
yeah thanks .opps my bad


actually looking at the loops it should be over the water lol
new surface map (00Z)



1094. Levi32
Quoting Skyepony:
Levi~ Congrats:)

Evening Windsat


Thanks :)
Quoting Skyepony:
3hrs later on ASCAT (and about 3 hrs ago)...if you can't stand to watch one die turn away..


I wonder though, I see what Winter is saying about another low spinning up at 30N 72W close to that convection

This low further south dying may actually help 90L more than hurt it
1096. xcool
Hurricanes101 yeah lmao.
1097. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I wonder though, I see what Winter is saying about another low spinning up at 30N 72W close to that convection

This low further south dying may actually help 90L more than hurt it


Only problem is all the countless lows that have come out and died have resulted in the entire circulation being very enlarged and broad.
Quoting Levi32:


Only problem is all the countless lows that have come out and died have resulted in the entire circulation being very enlarged and broad.


yea true
1099. xcool



Quoting xcool:





So what, is our Carribean storm actually gonna bomb into a huge rainmaker for the pacific central america coast instead?
1101. xcool
winter123 I really don't know.
Quoting xcool:
winter123 I really don't know.

Guess we play the waiting game.. I'll be back tomrorow
1103. xcool
winter123 yeah...
I see a low pressure swirl around 28.3 N 70.1 W, and no convection within 200 miles. I don't see any signs of rapid organization happening soon.

However, we may get a little rain here after 2 am.

1105. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I see a low pressure swirl around 28.3 N 70.1 W, and no convection within 200 miles. I don't see any signs of rapid organization happening soon.

However, we may get a little rain here after 2 am.



There's also a new one at 30N, 71.9W. It will take a while to try to consolidate this thing, but it has 2-3 days, so I would not take any eyes off of it. Convection will finally have the chance to try to develop around the center instead of away from it.
1106. xcool



1107. Levi32
Goodnight all.
It may be there levi, but my tired eyes are not seeing it. But we'll find out tomorrow :)
0z GFS develops the current area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Tehauntepec into Tropical Storm Agatha at 72 hours:



However, it appears that this system will have some competing influences to contend with; namely, moderate easterly shear as well as a large area of precipitation to the west, associated with the ITCZ. Monsoon-type systems like this one typically take awhile to organize, so we'll see what happens.

I believe that this is the very same system that the models foresee could become a tropical depression across the western Caribbean by this weekend or early next week.
1110. xcool
i'm back.
1064 CapeCoralStorm "I'm using a PC with Firefox. Looks like mym options are scroll down to the bottom after posting, or learn to read/keep up bottom to top."

Nope. When you change reading preferences (order or filter), you have refresh, then go to a new off-site page, then reenter (and not use "Go back one page") through the TropicalStorm frontpage before the change will "catch", goes into effect.
At least that was the way it worked for me.
1112. xcool


new

I am becoming more confident of an Alma-Arthur scenario.

Morning all
1114. MahFL
Morning 456, I am pulling an extra half shift. Some showers heading to me from the Atlantic, I am just SW of Jax.
Quoting Weather456:
I am becoming more confident of an Alma-Arthur scenario.

Morning all


Night all.. LOL, its 3 AM here. Take over 456.
1116. MahFL
New center 74/29 ?
Quoting Weather456:
I am becoming more confident of an Alma-Arthur scenario.

Morning all


Good morning.

As far as the Alma/Arthur scenario goes, I agree that it's possible, but I would like to see how the steering pattern evolves over the coming days, as well as how the current Pacific disturbance organizes itself over the next several days. As I said earlier, it has some moderate easterly shear and some ITCZ convection to contend with, the latter of which severely hampered intensification of Carlos last year.

Still, there are several models, including the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF, forecasting tropical cyclogenesis in this area in just three to four days, and if that's the case, there may be enough of a remnant mid-level circulation to aid in the birth of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean by late this weekend or early next week.

We'll see. Like I said though, I'd rather keep watch on the steering forecasts over the next several days.
1118. IKE
Looks like the 00Z ECMWF continues to diminish the significance of 90L.

After looking at a satellite on it, I see why. ECMWF also shows a system in the east-PAC but kills it after landfall, with nothing on the Caribbean side.

Don't see much in the western Caribbean on the GFS or CMC.
1119. guygee
Good morning all.
Working hard in the yard all day yesterday, then accidentally fell asleep at 8:30 PM, then up since 2:00 this morning. I hate that when it happens.

Watching 90L IR2 loops...broad low perhaps a little more WNW than previous forecasts? Getting some wraparound moisture now.

STS's can be strange beasts...perhaps this will stay extratropical, but I have to admit I am wishcasting for some drenching rains on the parched Space Coast. At least a few convergence bands working in from the NNE attm.
1120. MahFL
Hello Guy, I see a new center at 73/30. Also some green on the IR is now showing, which means thunderstorms are not getting sheared as much.
1121. guygee
Quoting MahFL:
Hello Guy, I see a new center at 73/30. Also some green on the IR is now showing, which means thunderstorms are not getting sheared as much.
I agree the shear is relaxing, so I haven't given up on 90L yet. Still weird looking in the vicinity of the ULL and dry air, but I think the environment is becoming more favorable.

Already north of my latitude, so even if it drifts left of forecast best I can hope for is some onshore convergence bands, then maybe some strong storms popping the cap as the upper flow backs to the NW.
Looking at the latest IR satellite this is a complete utter mess. It can't look much worse than this. It's peak time is supposed to be later this evening. It's way too broad to tighten up now. At least the carolina coast will get some needed rain showers today.
1123. guygee
BP Oil Leak - Has the casing finally eroded away?

Some bloggers monitoring the live feed of the leak have detected some possible major changes in the flow of oil around the riser, with gas venting now from the seafloor. Waiting on some verification, but check it out for yourself...it looks bad:

Major Change Down Below...


Off to try and get a couple hours of sleep...
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the 00Z ECMWF continues to diminish the significance of 90L.

After looking at a satellite on it, I see why. ECMWF also shows a system in the east-PAC but kills it after landfall, with nothing on the Caribbean side.

Don't see much in the western Caribbean on the GFS or CMC,.


There is at least a broad and disorganized area of low pressure around days five and six.
Quoting StormW:
Enter, La Nina



I wonder when the shear is going to start dropping in response?
Hmm. Point taken, I suppose.

Anyhow, gonna try and get a few hours of sleep. Got some things to do in the AM.

See ya around, Storm!
Most of the reliable models show this in the NW Caribbean

1132. IKE
90L....

Im telling you shear is not going to drop. I can assure everyone its gonna stay strong most of the season discouraging a lot of activity. this year may very well be no different than last year.I foresee very little action.
Im telling you shear is not going to drop. I can assure everyone its gonna stay strong most of the season discouraging a lot of activity. this year may very well be no different than last year.I foresee very little action.

Do you have any analysis/data to back this up?
1137. IKE
Water vapor of eastern USA and 90L, which looks in RIP mode....

Quoting Weather456:
I am becoming more confident of an Alma-Arthur scenario.

Morning all
I am too. This system is looking very nice on satellite right now.

Quoting hurricanelover236:
Im telling you shear is not going to drop. I can assure everyone its gonna stay strong most of the season discouraging a lot of activity. this year may very well be no different than last year.I foresee very little action.


you obviously haven't been reading/paying attention to anything on here or in the news in the past 3 months.
Did you know there's an oil spill in the gulf too?
Quoting hurricanelover236:
Im telling you shear is not going to drop. I can assure everyone its gonna stay strong most of the season discouraging a lot of activity. this year may very well be no different than last year.I foresee very little action.
Ok????
90L is trying to pull the thunder storm activity back to the center this morning.... we may just have Alex by tonight if it continues... what do think?... And remember it has not been able to keep it in the center since the beginning... having no shear is help it.... also it on top of the gulf stream.
1143. MahFL
Superweatherman...there is still at least 20 kts of shear over 90L.
00z NOGAPS 120 Hours.

Notice the 1006 MB low in the Caribbean. Also notice a 1005 MB low north of Puerto Rico.

90L is feeling the effects of the Gulf Stream.
Morning fellow bloggers?? Who said shear isnt going to drop all season and we're going to have another 2009?? I guess NOAA, TSR, Dr. Gray and all the others did all that tropical meterology studying for nothing huh
Quoting Weather456:
90L is feeling the effects of the Gulf Stream.
Thanks for your update. Informative as usual.
I think the area of low pressure that the Caribbean has to be aware of is around 10N/85W just off the NW coast of Costa Rica on Epac side slowly moving NNE.
Quoting stormhank:
Morning fellow bloggers?? Who said shear isnt going to drop all season and we're going to have another 2009?? I guess NOAA, TSR, Dr. Gray and all the others did all that tropical meterology studying for nothing huh


Iggy is a man's best friend on this blog.
1150. IKE
Hatteras,NC monthly rain total...3.01 in

Charleston,SC monthly rain total...0.31 in


90L...center looks to me to be near 30N and 72W...

Quoting Weather456:


Iggy is a man's best friend on this blog.


But an enemy with storms/hurricanes :)
This is old from yesterday, but it hasn't changed.


Information Courtesy: Weather Underground
Quoting IKE:
Hatteras,NC monthly rain total...3.01 in

Charleston,SC monthly rain total...0.31 in


90L...center looks to me to be near 30N and 72W...


That seems to be a good COC. If it's there I don't know why the NHC won't go ahead and classify this Alex.
Good Morning AM Crew......With the exception of whats left of 90L right now and the disturbance down by Central America, sheer levels currently still too high for development out in the MDR. What bothers me however, is the persistent ridging of the A-B high between Bermuda and the mid-Atlantic. Not sure when it will finally "set" for the Summer but if it does so in this general configuation come the CV season, we will not see a lot of recurvature during the heart of the season until we start getting some stronger trofs which might actually come down later than usual in the Fall due to La Nina conditions........That potential beeline from Africa to the Caribbean and Greater Antilles is certainly not something I am looking forward to.
Buxton, North Carolina: surf 4-5 ft (shoulder to head)

was really hoping to get some rain from 90L
1157. gator23
Quoting hurricanelover236:
Im telling you shear is not going to drop. I can assure everyone its gonna stay strong most of the season discouraging a lot of activity. this year may very well be no different than last year.I foresee very little action.


Proof?
anyone know when the shear will diminish?
Quoting largeeyes:
was really hoping to get some rain from 90L


Where do you live?
1160. P451
Good Morning.

12 Hour WV Imagery ending 715AM ET.


90L



EPac AOI

Quoting IKE:
Looks like the 00Z ECMWF continues to diminish the significance of 90L.

After looking at a satellite on it, I see why. ECMWF also shows a system in the east-PAC but kills it after landfall, with nothing on the Caribbean side.

Don't see much in the western Caribbean on the GFS or CMC.


Yep, IKE I see nothing in the foreseeable future in the Caribbean just tropical moisture moving north into Florida this weekend and next week. To much shear right now to support developement.
1163. aquak9
Quoting hurricanelover236:
Im telling you shear is not going to drop. I can assure everyone its gonna stay strong most of the season discouraging a lot of activity. this year may very well be no different than last year.I foresee very little action.


posts like that- a lotta blowing air- could tend to create an increase in shear, I suppose...
Aquak9 "posts like that- a lotta blowing air- could tend to create an increase in shear, I suppose..."

lol
In the short term another thing to keep an eye on is the e-pac vs. atlantic basin activity. I am not perfectly clear on the actual relationship between the two and issues related to MJO movement, but we have observed in the past this "inverse" relationship where cyclogenisis slows down on the Atlantic side, when e-pac ramps up and vice versa. My point is that if the e-pac ramps up and churns out a few storms in June, things might stay quieter in the meantime on the Atlantic side until July......I don't have the time to do it but it would be nice to make a comparison of early season activity (June/July) in the Atlantic vs. E-Pac during El Nina years to see if this concept holds water.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yep, IKE I see nothing in the foreseeable future in the Caribbean just tropical moisture moving north into Florida this weekend and next week. To much shear right now to support developement.


Why single out one model when all show shear decreasing? If development is expected around the 30th, why look at shear now?
Quoting Weather456:


Why single out one model when all show shear decreasing? If development is expected around the 30th, why look at shear now?
LMAO Stop that I'm drinking coffee..... Good morning Aqua
1169. IKE
Quoting cyclonekid:

That seems to be a good COC. If it's there I don't know why the NHC won't go ahead and classify this Alex.


Void of convection... 20 or higher knots of shear...dry air...

Good Morning Ike, Weather456, Jeff, P451, WWB, and all others I may have forgotten. Hope everyones day is going great. Beautiful day on the Biloxi Beach, as far as I can tell from my hotel window.
1171. IKE
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WEST OF 60W. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW EVEN REACHES INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA..TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO NORTHERN HONDURAS. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 30N72W. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N70W.
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THE 29N70W LOW CENTER TO
DISSIPATE...AND THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 25N
BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N54W 30N60W BEYOND 32N64W.
THE WIND CONDITIONS IN THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN ARE LESS
THAN GALE-FORCE AT 25/0600 UTC. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE
BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OF THIS BULLETIN.
Quoting msgambler:
Good Morning Ike, Weather456, Jeff, P451, WWB, and all others I may have forgotten. Hope everyones day is going great. Beautiful day on the Biloxi Beach, as far as I can tell from my hotel window.


Morning :)
Looks like 90L is developing some 'popcorn' convection near the center.

Life support?

1170. msgambler 8:03 AM EDT on May 25, 2010

Morning to you as well.......Beautiful morning along the Gulf this morning, weather wise,; lets hope the "top kill" works...
Quoting msgambler:
Good Morning Ike, Weather456, Jeff, P451, WWB, and all others I may have forgotten. Hope everyones day is going great. Beautiful day on the Biloxi Beach, as far as I can tell from my hotel window.


I was swimming at biloxi once, well, standing actually, too shallow to swim, the water was murky and something bumped me and I thought shark! but it was a head of lettuce. The beach at biloxi compared to the beach at destin.... oh my. Biloxi is like a bath that needs draining. But gambling is fun...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like 90L is developing some 'popcorn' convection near the center.

Life support?



Feeling the effects of the Gulf stream...the lapse rate between warm near surface air and cold air aloft is becoming steep.
EPAC disturbance
This is my coffee in the morning

"I wanna be forever young"

1179. eddye
that thing in the e pac if it comes into the carribean it could become a ts or hurricane and hit fl or somewhere else because right know it looks really good i think we could be dealing with a system next week


1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

twhcracker, the reason the water is murky and not clear, like say Pensacola, is because of the barrier islands stirring up the sand in the water. Well, years ago the drains from the roads used to go into the sound but they found out how bad that was and stopped that. And yes it is shallow, but that's what you get for a man-made beach. And as for the gambling, well let's just say I'm hanging at the Isle for a week while I work out of Pass Christian. Free rooms, gotta love em'
I agree WWB, tomorrow can't come fast enough.
Quoting Weather456:


Feeling the effects of the Gulf stream...the lapse rate between warm near surface air and cold air aloft is becoming steep.


Yeah, just took a look at the lapse rates and some other parameters off of the SE coast. Interesting.

Looks like 90L could begin to develop some sustainable convection.


1185. eddye
did u people read wat i wrote
Joe B.

"TUESDAY

AND NOW, STORM 2K WEIGHS IN!

Another hurricane forecast, as super counterweight to Weather Research with their 8, is now in. Storm 2k has 24-27 storms!

If you read their site, you see most of the same things I have been saying about this since February. I want the battlelines drawn where I first started to fight, not where someone else decides to join the fight. However, one thing that is keeping me in check with 16-18, though the major threat on the coast, and yes the chance the kind of season they have comes to pass, is the QBO, which still does not look the way I have to see it to completely go wild. But now the range of forecast storms is 8 to 26 with me at 17 (16-18).

My forecast for the NOAA forecast.. 14-18 potential for 20. Let's see how close I come to the big release Thursday, which by the way was pushed back a week and changed to the Washington Press Club. Apparently they want an even bigger podium.

All of us, out here first with our forecasts, welcome NOAA to the party, even though they were last to get here. Hopefully, they bring the pizza and more beer."

AccuPro
Quoting eddye:
did u people read wat i wrote


I suspect they did, but didn't get chance to reply yet :)

I'm a fairly newish poster, but I've hung around here for ages (hi everybody!). I'd guess the thing with the EPac disturbance is that it'll get disrupted passing over the land, to some extent (it's quite mountainous down there, right), and then have to redevelop in what might not be ideal conditions on the other side. Are any of the models taking it to hurricane strength? I thought most people were posting showed a depression/weak TS forming, and only that intermittently, but I may well have missed something ;)
good day all
nice day here 830 in the morning allreadsy 75 outside with a heat index of 80 gonna be a hot one thanks to 90l
Quoting eddye:
that thing in the e pac if it comes into the carribean it could become a ts or hurricane and hit fl or somewhere else because right know it looks really good i think we could be dealing with a system next week


Not to be rude but does everything has to hit Florida?

The chances of a hurricane hitting Florida next week are slim because the subtropical jet is creating a protective shield from 20N.

Also for the system to hit FL it would have to go north or NNE. The current steering for next week is NE.
Everybody jumping on this hyperactive bandwagon. I'm hoping high winds don't knock over the bandwagon and everybody falls out.

ACE could exceed 200.
Quoting Weather456:


Not to be rude but does everything have to hit Florida?

The chances of a hurricane hitting Florida next week are slim because the subtropical jet is creating a protective shield from 20N.

Also for the system to hot FL it would have to go north or NNE. The current steering for next week is NE.


To him, everything will hit FL.
Quoting Weather456:
Everybody jumping on this hyperactive season.

ACE could exceed 200.


Everyone except Weather Research.

They have 8 storms.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Everyone except Weather Research.

They have 8 storms.


lol lol Based on what...?
Good morning KOTG
1197. eddye
winter 13 is a lier because i said the gulf coast before and i was right
Quoting Weather456:


lol lol Based on what...?

Not sure lol

JB had a link a few days ago. Cant find it now.
Quoting msgambler:
Good morning KOTG
good day to you
Quoting StormW:


456,
I believe they are the office that just uses the solar cycle. Don't know why they even bother. 8? LMAO!...we had what 9, 10 last season in an El Nino?


Excatly, no logic there.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Everyone except Weather Research.

They have 8 storms.
thats the forecast for july they forgot august september and october
Quoting msgambler:
twhcracker, the reason the water is murky and not clear, like say Pensacola, is because of the barrier islands stirring up the sand in the water. Well, years ago the drains from the roads used to go into the sound but they found out how bad that was and stopped that. And yes it is shallow, but that's what you get for a man-made beach. And as for the gambling, well let's just say I'm hanging at the Isle for a week while I work out of Pass Christian. Free rooms, gotta love em'


I wish i was there! I love the "friendship Oak" at the college campus there on the beach highway. Put 10.00 on RED on the roulette wheel for me :)
Quoting twhcracker:


I wish i was there! I love the "friendship Oak" at the college campus there on the beach highway. Put 10.00 on RED on the roulette wheel for me :)
Done: but my interest rate are HIGH......LOL
1208. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I think 90L may be deactivated...soon. If I'm wrong, slice me some crow.
I'm cheering for 90L to get a groove on and keep moving west; the circulation will help keep some of the Gulf oil away from the coast for a little while (they need all the help theny can get)....
Quoting P451:
Hurricane Images from Space


Where's Dean, he had one of the most spectacular eyes seen from Space.


90L has to be one of those invest with the most vortices within a circulation.
latest satellite images showing a pretty relentless amount of oil all over the central and eastern gulf.
Quoting IKE:


I think 90L may be deactivated...soon. If I'm wrong, slice me some crow.


Not yet

AL 90 2010052512 BEST 0 299N 720W 40 1005 LO
Quoting IKE:


I think 90L may be deactivated...soon. If I'm wrong, slice me some crow.


Let's kill it while it still clings to life! :)
here in NM it was freezing cold last night. 23F when I woke up this morning. The water in the hummingbird feeders is frozen and the hose on the garden is all iced up.

I'm ready for summer. Sheesh.
Last night, we got the website functioning well...and I fixed the "jury-rig" issue with my storm chase helmet communications. We did a test of the system last night and it works very well! :)

All systems go! We'll do some more equipment testing this weekend that will tell me how long I can stay up and running on a battery, since the live webcam system is designed to be portable.
Quoting lickitysplit:
here in NM it was freezing cold last night. 23F when I woke up this morning. The water in the hummingbird feeders is frozen and the hose on the garden is all iced up.

I'm ready for summer. Sheesh.


I live in NM, too!

WHEN WILL IT END! :(
90L actually looks much better than yesterday.

re:1218

well howdy neighbor! im here in taos county. the wind has been unreal this spring and the relentless cold....brrrrrr....ive had enough!
1221. msphar
well looks like hurricane season is almost upon us. Not much change I note there, given the current date versus historical events I saw posted here recently. 90L has managed to burn off a lot of latent heat which is always a good thing, unless you are a little boat in the path. My focus remains the MDR but the ITCZ seems to cling to the Southern route which is something that I note and like.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
90L actually looks much better than yesterday.



Quoting msphar:
well looks like hurricane season is almost upon us. Not much change I note there, given the current date versus historical events I saw posted here recently. 90L has managed to burn off a lot of latent heat which is always a good thing, unless you are a little boat in the path. My focus remains the MDR but the ITCZ seems to cling to the Southern route which is something that I note and like.


?
1224. MahFL
Ahhhhh!!!!!!!. TWC just mentioned extreme weather and a tropical disturbance in the atlantic......why oh why do they still think exaggerating is a good idea ?
Q & A for NHC - Chris Landsea

Excerpt:

Where do you see the science of hurricane forecasting in the next five years?

One road that looks very promising is extending our forecasts further out in time. Currently we do a five day forecast for an existing storm, and we are likely to start testing our ability to go out to seven days in the near future. If that works, I could see us providing public seven-day forecasts in a few years. Additionally, we are testing doing genesis predictions out to five days. Right now, the Tropical Weather Outlook goes through two days. But because the global models are improving so much for providing predictions, we might be able to extend that further out, too.
weather456---I'm in New Bern, NC near Morehead. May get a stray shower, but not the soaking I need.
1228. 900MB
Quoting IKE:


I think 90L may be deactivated...soon. If I'm wrong, slice me some crow.

I was just about to agree with you. The dry air has been a killer here, but I would give it a few more hours to see if the latest blowup was a blow off. I think the pressure gradient with the highs to the North will probably exaggerate wind speeds and keep the hype alive.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Q & A for NHC - Chris Landsea


Interesting.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Q & A for NHC - Chris Landsea

Excerpt:

Where do you see the science of hurricane forecasting in the next five years?

One road that looks very promising is extending our forecasts further out in time. Currently we do a five day forecast for an existing storm, and we are likely to start testing our ability to go out to seven days in the near future. If that works, I could see us providing public seven-day forecasts in a few years. Additionally, we are testing doing genesis predictions out to five days. Right now, the Tropical Weather Outlook goes through two days. But because the global models are improving so much for providing predictions, we might be able to extend that further out, too.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Q & A for NHC - Chris Landsea

Excerpt:

Where do you see the science of hurricane forecasting in the next five years?

One road that looks very promising is extending our forecasts further out in time. Currently we do a five day forecast for an existing storm, and we are likely to start testing our ability to go out to seven days in the near future. If that works, I could see us providing public seven-day forecasts in a few years. Additionally, we are testing doing genesis predictions out to five days. Right now, the Tropical Weather Outlook goes through two days. But because the global models are improving so much for providing predictions, we might be able to extend that further out, too.


While I agree that hurricane science is improving. 7-days and 5 days for track and genesis, respectively will still incur some difficulties. Earth has the most unpredictable weather of any planet in the solar system and it will remain unpredictable for centuries to come. I do applaud them however for their effects despite these facts. Kudos to them.
1231. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting Weather456:


While I agree that hurricane science is improving. 7-days and 5 days for track and genesis, respectively will still incur some difficulties. Earth has the most unpredictable weather of any planet in the solar system and it will remain unpredictable for centuries to come. I do applaud them however for their effects despite these facts. Kudos to them.


They started doing the 5 day genesis in house last year and they will need to work on their procedures. Once they can start demonstrating skill I think they will keep it in house for several more years to verify before it becomes operational. Same with extending track forecasts. All of the work involving the HFIP should help. This summer they may have up to 5 planes flying storms, possible all at the same time!
17 wadedanielsmith "Man, get real. The Deepwater Horizon spill has passed Exxon Valdez a full month ago, and is currently no less than 11 Exxon Valdez, and fast approaching 12 Exxon Valdez."

Ever since BP's CEO quickly slapped down his own public relations head for disagreeing with the estimate approved for public consumption by the NOAA director, I've strongly suspected that "5000barrels per day" to be at the lowest level that wouldn't cause an open revolt by NOAA's analytic staff.
It's fairly safe to make your subordinates think "The boss is an idiot." And another thing altogether to make them think "The boss is trying to brand me as a lying incompetent."

But otherwise, I haven't a clue: too many variables to fill in with information not available to the public.
And neither do you. 1000microns equals 1millimeter


I do admit having my own shot-in-the-dark range of plausible flow rates, which is only 12%to36% as high as your estimate. And still have hope that NOAA admin isn't as off-base as I think.
However the cancellation of last week's HurricaneSeason press conference in Miami for a transfer to this week in Washington,DC makes me suspect that NOAA admin is getting a face-to-face grilling by the WhiteHouse.

But guess what? Having Godzilla tromping through Tokyo is bad enough. And so is NOAA's "5000barrels per day" when talkin' about crude in the Gulf, into&onto the coastline, and down on the reefs.
Any speculations about whether Mothra&Gang joined in on the Dance of Death can be answered at the post-mortem, after the well has been capped.

The USNavy probably knows to within a percent or so -- or at least has or has had data that would allow analysts to make such a determination -- but they're busy playing "don't ask, don't tell".
For "reasons of national security", Naval brass like to pretend that potential adversaries remain unaware that the USmilitary has better sonar equipment than a mediocre*commercial fishing trawler.

And most constitutional protections that corporations enjoy against self-incrimination during criminal investigations don't apply to civil discovery proceedings.

The only real question is whether the federal judiciary will once again thwart Justice in aid of their self-perceived peers, ala the five Supremes going to bat for Exxon.

Transocean has already managed to get all DeepwaterHorizon lawsuits consolidated to be tried under the jurisdiction of a Texas judge: even though there is virtually no chance that the spill will directly affect Texas; even though the corporation isn't based in Texas. So there is a better than 50/50 chance that Transocean will be allowed to walk away from their obligation to-make-whole by paying the $75million**limit to the plaintiffs in order to prevent discovery proceedings.
From what I've read, Transocean stands to make a very healthy profit from receipt of insurance payouts for the loss of DeepwaterHorizon, even after spending $75million to settle lawsuits.
Not bad for a company that also hosted the Ixtoc I blowout.

* Any decent commercial fishing trawler could provide far better information about flow shape&volume and flow speeds&directions than those thus far provided to the public by either BritishPetroleum or the government.

** Thank the Senators and Representatives that you will once again reelect for keeping the Interests of Oil deep in their hearts.
BREAKING NEWS

BP to terminate live feed during Top Kill procedure.