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90L comes close to being the season's first named storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:30 PM GMT on May 23, 2009

The large extratropical storm (90L) that has been pounding Florida, the Bahamas, and Haiti this week with heavy rain and high surf has moved ashore over Mississippi. Last night and this morning, the storm put on an impressive burst of heavy thunderstorm activity and came close to becoming a subtropical or tropical depression. Winds at the Fort Morgan, AL station were 44 mph, gusting to 52 mph, and winds at Dauphin Island, Alabama coastal station were sustained at 39 mph, gusting to 48 mph at between 8am and 10am EDT this morning. While these winds were in excess of the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm force, both measurements were taken at elevations higher than the international wind measurement standard of ten meters, so the top measured winds of 90L were actually slightly less than tropical storm force. Had 90L spent another six hours over water, it very likely would have been declared a tropical/subtropical depression/storm.

The circulation around 90L continues to mean rain for Florida, but the rains will be lessening today. Rainfall amounts as high as 28 inches were measured this week in Northern Florida at Brunnell. Rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches have accumulated along the Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida Panhandle coasts from 90L so far (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Mobile, AL radar.

There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, so have a great weekend, and I'll have a new blog post by Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

h23, yea it is. Thanks
1002. Levi32
Adrian and 456, this shames your precious WeatherTap high-res visible loops =P

NASA High-Resolution Visible loop of the Bahamas

Mid-level circulation continuing to develop. Dry air is getting punched into the west side of the system by the sub-tropical jet, as evidenced by the lack of low-level cloud streets to the west of the system, which you can see clearly in the loop.
1003. Levi32
You can also see the dry air here surging through the central Bahamas:

Levi i use weathertap for the quick updates but i use a variety of different sources for sat imagery.
Quoting Levi32:
Adrian and 456, this shames your precious WeatherTap high-res visible loops =P

NASA High-Resolution Visible loop of the Bahamas

Mid-level circulation continuing to develop. Dry air is getting punched into the west side of the system by the sub-tropical jet, as evidenced by the lack of low-level cloud streets to the west of the system, which you can see clearly in the loop.


lol....NASA does not have rapid scan =P
Quoting melwerle:


LOL Keeper! Same problem here. And our builder didn't leave us plywood.
thats just one side of the building mel if you count the east side north side and south side its over 1100 windows and iam in serious trouble if we ever get 150mph+ winds here
Quoting Levi32:
Adrian and 456, this shames your precious WeatherTap high-res visible loops =P

NASA High-Resolution Visible loop of the Bahamas

Mid-level circulation continuing to develop. Dry air is getting punched into the west side of the system by the sub-tropical jet, as evidenced by the lack of low-level cloud streets to the west of the system, which you can see clearly in the loop.


How did you save the animation or its settings seperate from the webpage.
1006. OMG. THAT'S HORRIBLE. You would need two weeks notice to get everything done.
1009. Levi32
Quoting hurricane23:
Levi i use weathertap for the quick updates but i use a variety of different sources for sat imagery.


Lol I know, just teasing yah.

The RAMSDIS floaters update as fast as 5 mins after the image is taken, I can't imagine WeatherTap updating any faster than that. Nasa is also pretty fast.
I really enjoy useing metwise-(extreme forcasting)which is a set up somewhat similar to AWIPS.It's subscription based
1011. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:


lol....NASA does not have rapid scan =P


This does though lol (when a storm is active)

Nasa used to have rapid-scan, I don't understand why it doesn't anymore this year. It still updates every 15 mins though which isn't bad.
1012. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:


How did you save the animation or its settings seperate from the webpage.


Use the arguments found on this page to customize a satellite URL.
I will explain another day and time, what I meant about requesting information about Press and SJ. Nothing bad, trust me.
thanks Levi
1016. Levi32
No problem.
Quoting Levi32:
You can also see the dry air here surging through the central Bahamas:


I am South of the "dry air surge" here (Providenciales), we have had rain all day.
Light breeze is variable SE to S
and Bar. is still high.

... and Thor is bowling upstairs again!
(Thunder & Lightning)
power off once already today.
(I winced at the strike which shut it off....
too close)

CRS
456 when you have a chance check mail, I think you will understand what I am saying.
blog hole
Storms just started at my house. I'm glad I dashed away from work when I did. I got into the house just as the rain came down.
Quoting hurricane23:
I really enjoy useing metwise-(extreme forcasting)which is a set up somewhat similar to AWIPS.It's subscription based


Metwise isnt allowing online ordering currently...bummer.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
304 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 304 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HIGHWAY 27 OVER NORTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...AND MOVING EAST AT
5 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
RURAL NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN AN INTERIOR
ROOM IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOUSE OR BUSINESS IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED.
Wow! Within a few seconds of my typing that message, a massive lightning strike knocked out our power! I saw (and felt!) the energy jump from my laptop to my hand. Luckily the laptop is OK. And thank goodness for dialup.

Will let u know how long this page takes to load on dialup.
Baha, thats my region you know. No wonder I am seeing power surges.
two cells both heading South South East. From west of me
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SIXTEEN
CYCLONIC STORM AILA (BOB02-2009)
20:30 PM IST May 25 2009
===============================

Subject: Cyclonic storm over Gangetic West Bengal.

At 15:00 PM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm over Gangetic West Bengal Bengal weakened into cyclonic storm and moved nearly northerly direction. Cyclonic Storm Aila lays over Gangetic West Bengal about 50 kms north of Kolkata. The system is likely to move in a near northerly direction and weaken gradually.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (%u226525 cm) is likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next 24 hours and over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during next 48 hours.

Rain/thundershower is also likely at most places over Assam and Meghalaya with isolated heavy to very heavy fall during next 48 hours and over north Orissa during next 24 hrs.

Gale wind speed reaching 25-30 knots gusting 40 knots likely along and off West Bengal coasts during next 12 hours. Squally winds reaching 25-30 knots gusting to 35 knots likely along and off north Orissa coast during next 12 hours.

Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off West Bengal coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea during next 12 hours.
OK, it took about 30 seconds. I took so long to come back this time because I needed to move my car. There are 3 or 4 inch deep puddles of rain water around my house - this in less than 15 minutes!

I was going to try to upload some pics I took earlier this p.m. while I was on the road, but dunno if I'll try that now, given the lack of power.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Baha, thats my region you know. No wonder I am seeing power surges.
Not sure what u mean by "your region". Where are you located again? I'm in SW New Providence.
baha, Just east of Coral Springs
Blog Update

AOI #1

AOI #2
Baha, that cell you spoke of is now heading into the eastern parts of Ft. Lauderdale and we will be seeing reports of damage. Heading for tamarac and surrounding areas, still has hail attached to it. Purplish, wouldn't be surprised if there is rotation attached to it as well.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TAMARAC...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
TAMARAC...
LAUDERDALE LAKES...
NORTH LAUDERDALE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES AND
AVOID WATER. MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE IF POSSIBLE. AVOID
USING THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.


another low to form from the monsoon?
Is this cell heading north towards Palm Beach county ???
eye, do not know. going to check Nexrad
Quoting EYEoftheCANE:
Is this cell heading north towards Palm Beach county ???


Which cell?

WPB, click on advanced options and then on Composite. gives you a better look
nice graphic WPB - now I can see why I hear thunder all around me - I'm in Boca...
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
WPB, click on advanced options and then on Composite. gives you a better look


Composite overdoes the intensity of the cells greatly. Not really that good...
talking about thunder? sounds like someone bowling heavily outside right now.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
WPB, click on advanced options and then on Composite. gives you a better look


Never saw that...thanks.

gives a better idea though of the range of the storms we are looking at. Heck I am north of where the hail is located and it looks like its almost 7pm outside right now
you know who get ur candels out!!!
1045. SBG
Quoting hurricane23:
Sea level pressures are above average over the tropical atlantic.The sub-tropical jet is way south which may mean we will see alot of development above 20N.Personally iam not to thrilled about this season and if the NCEP models verify nicely the atl looks rather hostile in the coming weeks.

456 click on SW atlantic for a better view.


23 tends to be very bearish and responsible with his predictions. Facts over hype, fear or wishcasting. Him feeling this way makes me a little uneasy.
Good Lord!! I think everyone in South Florida should take cover. Every single storm is severe!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
351 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 349 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
INTERSECTION U.S. 27 PINES BLVD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
INTERSECTION U.S. 27 PINES BLVD...
PEMBROKE PINES...
INTERSECTION I-75 AND GRIFFIN ROAD...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

Quoting SBG:


23 tends to be very bearish and responsible with his predictions. Facts over hype, fear or wishcasting. Him feeling this way makes me a little uneasy.


Very true.
Cyclone Aila has claimed at least 28 lives in eastern India and neighbouring Bangladesh. Nineteen people were killed in the Indian metropolis Kolkata and its surroundings. The storm, which is being accompanied by wind speeds of more than 120 kilometres per hour, has caused widespread material damage and virtually brought life to a halt.

At least nine people were killed in Bangladesh, and dozens of people are still missing. More than 300,000 people there have been trapped by the high water levels. In India, more than a hundred thousand people have been forced to evacuate their homes.

Heavy rainfall and high waves have flooded hundreds of coastal villages in both countries, dams have broken and many rivers have burst their banks.
Well, tried to upload an image, but it's too big to come through quickly on dialup.

I'm headed back to work right now, while the rain seems to be holding up. If we have power there, and if I get onto the wireless system, I'll check in when I get there.

Later.
here comes the rain - really hard & the wind is blowing pretty hard too.......
Large cell just west of Fort Lauderdale.

Quoting SBG:


23 tends to be very bearish and responsible with his predictions. Facts over hype, fear or wishcasting. Him feeling this way makes me a little uneasy.


Well I had more development in region 2. North of 20N and west of 50W. i'll post the graphic this evening.
Hello, everyone. I've been following this blog for 2 years now and have learned an awful lot. So I'm looking forward to learning a lot more from all the way up here in Baltimore (no Cane Land). Just wanted to say hi finally.
What is the blowup in the GOM near LA and what direction is it heading, inland?
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
What is the blowup in the GOM near LA and what direction is it heading, inland?


it looks like a surface trough to me. Due the inflow created by 90L winds are converging in a sporadic fashion.
Long time watcher, just stopping in to say Happy Memorial Day to all, and thank you to the men and women who gave us our freedom. Sad to see Florida getting ripped up. Didn't they get enough last week? The dregs from 90L don't look very nice either. Hopefully we'll have some time to watch before nature brews a fresh pot.
That low is presistant does it have a LLC
OK so could the blob become a tropical storm?
Quoting Gulfsyed:
Newbie Question....

The blob over the gulf, any chance of becoming a real storm?


No.
Like an hour ago I had the worst thunderstorm all year here in Broward County. It was non-stop lightning for 25 minutes. The rain and wind were something you'd find in a hurricane.

If I didn't know any better, I wouldv'e thought I was getting hit by a hurricane or a tornado.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
434 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

* AT 434 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER SOUTHWEST
ST. LUCIE COUNTY...OR 13 MILES EAST OF OKEECHOBEE...MOVING SOUTH
AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL SOUTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY THROUGH 5 PM EDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE IF THE
TORNADO IS NEARBY.

TVS with St. Lucie county cell- Link
Quoting Gulfsyed:
OK so could the blob become a tropical storm?


Most signs point to no.
Right now the Bahamas blob has the best chance of becoming a tropical storm- Link
Quoting Gulfsyed:
OK so could the blob become a tropical storm?


99.99999999999999% NO

The only place to look for development right now is the Bahamas blob.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Large cell just west of Fort Lauderdale.



Stormchaser2007: What do you use for your radar in the above post? Looks nice!
Ok next question, butterfly effect...does the formation of 90 so early in the summer change the weather patterns for the south, 90 set up all the storms and rain over the south, which in turn saturated the ground, which then leads to more rain....does this event change the summer weather patterns or even tropical storm development..
1068. JRRP

tropical wave
1069. HCW
Tropical Storm or not you make the call

This footage was taken Right after the eyewall came onshore. Okay it wasn't an eyewall but there was no debris at all untill it made landfall and the surge came up very fast. I would estimate a good 5 FT in about 20 mins . Winds were gusting well over 50 mph at that time and we had sustained winds in the 30mph range before landfall . This storm is one that should be upgraded down the road by the NHC and I hope that this video and some of my others will help with there decision. Problem is there is not much footage from this system but bouy data and weather station data indicate this was no doubt at least tropical depression if not a tropical storm

Link
What direction is the AOI by the Bahamas heading?
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
What direction is the AOI by the Bahamas heading?


North/Northeast
1072. K8eCane
JRRP
on your map, why is there the number 16 by the bahamas with a line drawn straight to wilmington nc?????
Quoting K8eCane:
JRRP
on your map, why is there the number 16 by the bahamas with a line drawn straight to wilmington nc?????


Mean sea level pressure is 1016mb along that line.
1074. K8eCane
for a dummy like me, while perusing your map, it gave me pause
1075. K8eCane
ok Thanks wpb!!
Quoting JRRP:

tropical wave


Yea it showed up well last night on 315K PV
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
What direction is the AOI by the Bahamas heading?


Watching the Bahamas
can someone give me the Cap and cape values for S Fla. or a link to it?
1079. JRRP
Quoting K8eCane:
JRRP
on your map, why is there the number 16 by the bahamas with a line drawn straight to wilmington nc?????

Isobars 1016
1080. GKP
Has anyone had an update on the tornado warning heading for Seadrift, Port Oconner, and Magnolia beach area out of Port Lavaca Texas?
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
358 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 357 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MAGNOLIA BEACH...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF SEADRIFT...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ALONG HIGHWAY 185 BETWEEN SEADRIFT AND PORT OCONNOR BY 500 PM
CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Texas twister- Link
1084. K8eCane
Gods strength to all in texas
1085. JRRP
it does not matter the quantity of storms

hurricane 2 killed 8000 people.... 1930

and all of you know about Andrew
1086. K8eCane
does anyone think the area off the bahamas will be an investigation area?
1087. vortfix
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
426 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

TXC057-252200-
/O.CON.KCRP.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-090525T2200Z/
CALHOUN-
426 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
CALHOUN COUNTY...

AT 426 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF
SEADRIFT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MATAGORDA ISLAND STATE PARK BY 445 PM CDT


Quoting K8eCane:
does anyone think the area off the bahamas will be an investigation area?


I would guess it would.

1089. K8eCane
lets all pray for those in texas with this tornado
1090. vortfix
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 537 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2009 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA. NORTHEASTERN HENDRY COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA. * UNTIL 630 PM EDT * AT 535 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OKEELANTA...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. * THE STORM WILL AFFECT... SOUTH BAY... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
Golf ball sized hail?? Good Lord these are some strong buggers.
1092. K8eCane
hope everybody is inside but that is probly wishful thinking
post 1085....if we gave awards around here, that would get a gold medal...
1094. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Corpus Christi, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI



Storm E0

59 dBZ 37,000 ft.
Vil 45kg/ 100% chance 0.75in[Hail]

Mvmnt 16 knots NNW (327)

1067. Gulfsyed
I think so, local patterns yes, not basin wide. Will be hard to tell though, chicken/egg?

Two cold fronts (seabreeze) playing chicken.
1096. Patrap
ReliefWEB

Bangladesh: Cyclone Aila - Sit.report no. 69

Source: Network for Information, Response and Preparedness Activities on Disaster

Date: 25 May 2009


Dhaka, May 25, 2009

Event Title: Cyclone AILA

Date and Time of onset: 25.05.09 (intensified and crossing north northwest towards West Bengal)

Location of the disaster: Bangladesh, 2022'N-2636'N, 8748'E-9241'E,

Event Update:

1. Till now, coastal regions are experiencing continuous raining with gusty winds.

2. According to RTV news at 6.30pm, AILA has just moved northwest direction.

3. Deaths of 7 people have been reported till now. (2 from Nijum Dwip and 2 from Bayar Char of Noakhali district, and 3 from other districts).

4. Around 2000 fishers and Bawali (resource collector from Sundarbans) are trapped in the Sundarbans.

5. Vast area of Pirojpur district has been inundated because the Beri bund has been collapsed by the tidal surge.

6. 15 houses and 10 shops fully damaged in St Martin Island.

7. 7 unions of Ujirpur upazila of Barial district have been inundated.

Reporting from:
NIRAPAD Secretariat,
Dhaka, Bangladesh
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
What direction is the AOI by the Bahamas heading?
stationary or slow n nw will lay just se offshore ne ga se sc in just about 48 hrs from now

I really wish my friend KEEPEROFTHEGATE was KEEPEROFHISMOUTHSHUT with that kinda info....geeez....
well at least i did'nt say the caroliners
FSU mm5 cone- Link

"Disclaimer: This forecast is unofficial, experimental, and not meant to replace NHC official forecasts. Please refer to the NHC and local emergency officials for official forecasts when making a decision."
Lake O getting a good fill right now , keep it up , looking good.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
lol


Keeper, you are responsible for securing WU's gate from sly trolls this year lol
1105. K8eCane
darn
im in the cone
OK..ya get a few points for that...
suits me if this one goes just swims around out there...don't wanna fool with the slop this week....
1108. Patrap
Quoting K8eCane:
darn
im in the cone



Ack..ack..ack

Cyclone Aila update: at least 45 dead, over 1000 missing.
1110. K8eCane
LOL patrap
I'm just barely in the cone
hmm

Quoting K8eCane:
LOL patrap
I'm just barely in the cone


Me too! I'm in Wilmington. Where are you?
Wonder what the difference is between the 18km and the 6km? Link

Note, im pretty sure the 6km is still loading.
Quoting Weather456:
hmm



Invest?
Quoting presslord:
I really wish my friend KEEPEROFTHEGATE was KEEPEROFHISMOUTHSHUT with that kinda info....geeez....


lol
1116. K8eCane
Quoting natrwalkn:


Me too! I'm in Wilmington. Where are you?

hey!

really close to the airport
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Invest?


doesnt seem so. Unofficial
Quoting Weather456:


doesnt seem so. Unofficial


Ah alright thanks. I wasn't sure....I haven't been on for quite a few hours.
456 invest and its a tropical storm once it gets to nc offshore then pulls itself ne after that looks like we got something to watch
Quoting K8eCane:

hey!

really close to the airport


Cool! Porter's Neck Area here.
Quoting Weather456:
hmm


Hmm...probably because it's expected to track along the Gulf Stream, warm enough in places for intensification. Also notice how the cone includes New York!
Geez...I thought things were supposed to stay quiet for a bit. So much for that idea.


Someone had said that QuikSCAT miss the area this morning but it did not miss it, at the time it was processing it.

Quoting melwerle:
Geez...I thought things were supposed to stay quiet for a bit. So much for that idea.


the tropical push is on and we owe it to our 90l for kicking it in as it pulls itself nw then n ne the past few days its pullin all the tropical air northward from east gom carb sw tropical atlantic if you check out an anim. conus sat image u can clearly see this feature
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SEVENTEEN
CYCLONIC STORM AILA (BOB02-2009)
23:30 PM IST May 25 2009
===============================

Subject: Cyclonic storm over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Aila over Gangetic West Bengal Bengal moved further in nearly northerly direction and lay centered over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh about 100 kms north of Kolkata. The system is likely to move in a near northerly direction and weaken gradually.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥25 cm) is likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next 24 hours and over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during next 48 hours.

Rain/thundershower is also likely at most places over Assam and Meghalaya with isolated heavy to very heavy fall during next 48 hours

Squally wind speed reaching 25-30 knots gusting 35 knots likely along and off West Bengal and north Orissa coasts during next 12 hours.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal and north Orissa coasts during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea during next 12 hours.
Hi-resolution visible:

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SEVENTEEN
CYCLONIC STORM AILA (BOB02-2009)
23:30 PM IST May 25 2009
===============================

Subject: Cyclonic storm over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Aila over Gangetic West Bengal Bengal moved further in nearly northerly direction and lay centered over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh about 100 kms north of Kolkata. The system is likely to move in a near northerly direction and weaken gradually.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (%u226525 cm) is likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next 24 hours and over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during next 48 hours.

Rain/thundershower is also likely at most places over Assam and Meghalaya with isolated heavy to very heavy fall during next 48 hours

Squally wind speed reaching 25-30 knots gusting 35 knots likely along and off West Bengal and north Orissa coasts during next 12 hours.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal and north Orissa coasts during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea during next 12 hours.

This has the latest info on the death toll from Aila: Link
Right now, the death toll is 45, with over 1000 missing.
1128. Opal95
I think about late this week into early next week, we will have a 60 mph TS Ana.
Quoting Opal95:
I think about late this week into early next week, we will have a 60 mph TS Ana.

I agree.
1131. Drakoen
Consolidated area of convection near the Bahamas:
Quoting Opal95:
I think about late this week into early next week, we will have a 60 mph TS Ana.
yeah 60mph IF it follows the gulf stream
1133. Drakoen
1134. K8eCane
maybe i should pull a night shift tonite
Wow if TS ana forms from this low in Bahamas then she proves us all wrong on the dates we think the next storm will form.I remember no one said one storm will form in May.lol
Arms of ex-90L

latest 500 mb winds vorticity RUC 2115 utc
There is a wind shift south of the area of consolidation.
Link
25n 73W looks like the CoC trying to develop.
looks like Pacman
Quoting Weather456:
Arms of ex-90L

yeah 456 90l was the kick start for sure and its lifting a big mass of warm tropical air nortward over eastern half of north america once this passes we should really see the summer heat and humity kick in if ya look even further out over west coast NA everthing in the pacfic is pushing ne towards the poles the seasonal shift is in full swing and will get more interesting as we move along summers almost here


Lots of rain for a good deal of the States.
Quoting K8eCane:
maybe i should pull a night shift tonite


Wow... Cough ... Cough ... Maybe i Should too a it Might go from Not an Invest to a Cat 5 on my doorstep tommorow...

ITS NOT EVEN AN INVEST ...
Quoting Patrap:
AOI Atlantic IR Loop


Looks like the old 90L is sucking all of the moisture out of it. it's trying to break away
1150. K8eCane
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Wow... Cough ... Cough ... Maybe i Should too a it Might go from Not an Invest to a Cat 5 on my doorstep tommorow...

ITS NOT EVEN AN INVEST ...
1151. K8eCane
DOES IT BOTHER YOU SAMMYWHAMMYDAMMY WHOEVER YOU ARE IF I PULL A NITE SHIFT FOR A THUNDERSTORM???


NOT YOUR BUSINESS
Quoting K8eCane:


Honestly People Get too worked about nothing ... I used to jump the gun ...now if a Tropical storm is heading my way i dont jump the gun

A good lesson was Ike : was projected to hit South florida as a 4.... I Jumped the gun bought my supplies and nothing happend as it hit texas..

Dont Wishcast
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Wow... Cough ... Cough ... Maybe i Should too a it Might go from Not an Invest to a Cat 5 on my doorstep tommorow...

ITS NOT EVEN AN INVEST ...


Calm down.
Blog Update

AOI #1

AOI #2
Quoting Weather456:
Someone had said that QuikSCAT miss the area this morning but it did not miss it, at the time it was processing it.



I don't see anything in there that might indicate a LLC, not even a noticable windshift. Whatever rotation there is, is in the mid-levels. I do think its possible, assume it has model support, to develop into atleast a low pressure area.
1158. K8eCane
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Honestly People Get too worked about nothing ... I used to jump the gun ...now if a Tropical storm is heading my way i dont jump the gun

A good lesson was Ike : was projected to hit South florida as a 4.... I Jumped the gun bought my supplies and nothing happend as it hit texas..

Dont Wishcast
test to see if my pic comes up
1160. K8eCane
how bout this sammy


YOU DO YOU AND I"LL DO ME
Stop the bickering, press ignore and move on...

IR Static image.

Quoting K8eCane:
how bout this sammy


YOU DO YOU AND I"LL DO ME


All right then ... Why dont you stop using caps and ill go back to doing my final exam review ...
Quoting K8eCane:
how bout this sammy


YOU DO YOU AND I"LL DO ME
i agree with k8ecane, better to be safe that sorry
1164. K8eCane
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Calm down.


what was that about the caps?
I Say it might be designated a Invest Tonight
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Wow... Cough ... Cough ... Maybe i Should too a it Might go from Not an Invest to a Cat 5 on my doorstep tommorow...

ITS NOT EVEN AN INVEST ...
INV/91L/02 there i said it make you happy
1167. K8eCane
sorry stormchaser
that was meant for sammy

ok back to MY business now
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV/91L/02 there i said it make you happy


Ouch ... When was it made an invest Keeper?

1170. K8eCane
sorry everybody

i do get too worked up sometimes
The blog is more useful when one backs up or substantiate your opinions or claims. Just coming on here and saying it will not develop to "dissapoint" others sovles nothing. Be a forecaster not a downcaster/wishcaster.
Keeper please dont make up info....the last thing we need in here is more confusion.
1148

Nice data W456, where did you get it?
The reason why i Told you to Not Pay Attention for it is that ...

When you believe that something will happen and it never does you feel bad..
1178. 7544
hahaha next thing will be it will be heading west to s fla lol
I go away for the weekend and another disturbance pops up before the season starts. Give me a few minutes and I will take a look at everything. Be right back.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
The reason why i Told you to Not Pay Attention for it is that ...

When you believe that something will happen and it never does you feel bad..


Whats up with the incorrect capitalizations?
Love this pic

Shear is extremely hostile over much of the tropical Atlantic.



1181
that is very nice
1184. K8eCane
Quoting sammywammybamy:
The reason why i Told you to Not Pay Attention for it is that ...

When you believe that something will happen and it never does you feel bad..


sammy
i apologize
we're WU friends again
lets get back to weather
there are a lot of good people on here who give very accurate info and i dont want either of us to get banned...
As Long as it does not come to S.fla all of a sudden i can say i am at a safe distance
watch Out tampa BAy area, looks like Something'S Coming Yalls way From out of The gulf.

how's that for incorrect capitalization?
I know when ever i type up a paper .. it takes me 10 minutes to change all the capitals to Lowercases
Quoting theFatherofNature:
watch Out tampa BAy area, looks like Something'S Coming Yalls way From out of The gulf.

how's that for incorrect capitalization?


Lol... Thanks For the "Helpfull" Humor
Quoting K8eCane:


sammy
i apologize
we're WU friends again
lets get back to weather
there are a lot of good people on here who give very accurate info and i dont want either of us to get banned...


Ok.
Quoting Weather456:
Love this pic

that image looks like a hurricane, that definitely should have been Ana, the one in the Bahamas should be bill

has there ever been 2 storms in may
Quoting sammywammybamy:
I know when ever i type up a paper .. it takes me 10 minutes to change all the capitals to Lowercases

Yeah, I had the same problem when I was a kid. It was pretty annoying.
Quoting theFatherofNature:
watch Out tampa BAy area, looks like Something'S Coming Yalls way From out of The gulf.

how's that for incorrect capitalization?


*Facepalm*
Does anyone else agree that we will have more storms that orginate closer to home then Storms that start off africa
Quoting sammywammybamy:
I know when ever i type up a paper .. it takes me 10 minutes to change all the capitals to Lowercases
yup me too. couldn't keep my dang finger off the shift key
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Does anyone else agree that we will have more storms that orginate closer to home then Storms that start off africa
Yeah, i agree. i think it gonna be something like, uh what was that year, 04? accept less storms
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Does anyone else agree that we will have more storms that orginate closer to home then Storms that start off africa


We should see the bulk of the activity this year form closer to the CONUS. Although, one or two Cape Verde systems cant be ruled out.
I think were going to have alot of storms form in the originate from African waves in the eastern Caribbean this year.
Quoting theFatherofNature:
Yeah, i agree. i think it gonna be something like, uh what was that year, 04? accept less storms


Jeanne and Frances Formed Right Above Hati ..

Wilma Was the Scariest Though ... Windows Started to Shake Violently ..

Power Out For 10 days

(I Live in SouthEast Florida)

I have been a bloger here since 2004..
Quoting theFatherofNature:
that image looks like a hurricane, that definitely should have been Ana, the one in the Bahamas should be bill

has there ever been 2 storms in may


Yes, in 1887.
... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS METRO AND COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 747 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO LAKE WORTH... MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

WEST PALM BEACH... SOUTH PALM BEACH... PALM BEACH...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING... GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH... PEA-SIZED HAIL... TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS... OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES... AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. FUNNEL CLOUDS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

1182. Stormchaser2007 7:39 PM EDT on May 25, 2009
Shear is extremely hostile over much of the tropical Atlantic.

Maybe the case for most of the season.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Jeanne and Frances Formed Right Above Hati ..

Wilma Was the Scariest Though ... Windows Started to Shake Violently ..

Power Out For 10 days

(I Live in SouthEast Florida)

I have been a bloger here since 2004..


FRances was a Cape Verde storm only jeanne formed near haiti
Quoting hurricane23:
1182. Stormchaser2007 7:39 PM EDT on May 25, 2009
Shear is extremely hostile over much of the tropical Atlantic.

Maybe the case for most of the season.


If were lucky.
We should see the bulk of the activity this year form closer to the CONUS. Although, one or two Cape Verde systems cant be ruled out.

Based on what reasoning?
Quoting Twinkster:


FRances was a Cape Verde storm only jeanne formed near haiti


Im pretty sure Frances wasnt a Cape Verde system.
Ironic...with Frances and Jeanne, I lost power for a total of about three weeks...with Wilma, my roof blew off, but I had power the next day.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Frances_2004_track.png
1209. Patrap
The Hurricane Archive on the wu-Tropical Page is where that info is nested.



Atlantic 2004
frances was definitely a cape verde type storm and I guarantee you it did not form near haiti
Quoting clwstmchasr:
We should see the bulk of the activity this year form closer to the CONUS. Although, one or two Cape Verde systems cant be ruled out.

Based on what reasoning?


High SAL over the Eastern Atlantic...below average rainfall over the African continent and generally a lack of AEWs so far. The high shear wont help as well.
Never mind...Frances was a CV storm.
1213. Seastep
First, thanks to all who have served.

Second, haven't had a chance to check much and haven't been on.

I see everyone talking about bahamas, and it does look nice and model support.

But what the heck is coming off the TX coast and weren't the sst's much lower last week over GOM, if I recall correctly? I know trough, but...





there is no possible way of knowing as of right now where development is more likely this season things could change rather quickly between the end of may and august
well if you want to track storms you can track storm in the E Pac
Quoting clwstmchasr:
We should see the bulk of the activity this year form closer to the CONUS. Although, one or two Cape Verde systems cant be ruled out.

Based on what reasoning?


Based on a probable El Nino sometime during the season.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah I know it didnt form near Hati. Check your link...It never says that Frances was a Cape Verde type storm.



what do you consider a cape verde storm?
Quoting Twinkster:



what do you consider a cape verde storm?


Never mind...You were right.

Heres a list of CV storms.
Evening all,

Barometer Bob is on all week for Hurricane Preparedness week.

And

...it is always a great evening to pick up a Portlight T-shirt!
1549. Patrap
Barbecue Check List..
Ribs,Chicken,Dogs,Burgers...Check
Keg,soda,Lifewater,..check
Tunes,Speakers..check
One TD sliding North..
Priceless

1556. HIEXPRESS 10:33 AM EDT on May 23, 2009
LOL Patrap Ditto. The boat is having to stay under cover this weekend :(

Here's Why:
Deadly Boating Accident In Lake George

Todd Lennon, told News 13 his boat, a 1996 Sea Ray, was overcome by the largest swells he has ever seen on Lake George.


Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Never mind...You were right.

Heres a list of CV storms.



ya i know for a second i thought i was going crazy lol

Quoting Weather456:
Frances was a cape verde hurricane


Yeah I was confused with another system.
The less AEW wave season is not expected to greatly affect the overall numbers during this year. Regardless of any year there is an average of 1 cape verde hurricane. Despite activity in 2005 and 2008, only 1 and 2 cape verde hurricanes form, respectively. What we should be worry about is west of 50W.
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
1549. Patrap
Barbecue Check List..
Ribs,Chicken,Dogs,Burgers...Check
Keg,soda,Lifewater,..check
Tunes,Speakers..check
One TD sliding North..
Priceless

1556. HIEXPRESS 10:33 AM EDT on May 23, 2009
LOL Patrap Ditto. The boat is having to stay under cover this weekend :(

Here's Why:
Deadly Boating Accident In Lake George



and the big question is - were they wearing LIFEJACKETS? That's always my big question. I race on a sailboat every other weekend and I don't step FOOT on the boat without having my lifejacket on - just a thing for me - if i fall down, hit my head and fall over the boat or the boom gets me or whatever...it's going to do no good unless I have a jacket on to save me until someone picks me up out of the water if I'm knocked out.

Water safety is HUGE for me - sorry for my rant. I know sometimes folks never think anything is going to happen when they set out for a bit of fun. I think it's imperative that people take their precautions and stop worrying that they don't "look good." I would rather look dorkey in a life jacket and be alive if something happens. Our crew does not get on the boat without a jacket. Period. Stories like this always really upset me because it seems SO pointless.
Quoting Weather456:
The less AEW wave season is not expected to greatly affect the overall numbers during this year. Regardless of any year there is an average of 1 cape verde hurricane. Despite activity in 2005 and 2008, only 1 and 2 cape verde hurricanes form, respectively. What we should be worry about is west of 50W.


I think that this year will be like 2005, where storms form closer to home, and catch people off guard with their subsequent rapid intensification.
Seems like we get some much needed rain closer to/over SE Conus this year in May, and a strong low in the Gulf, and some folks think that they can predict the future in terms of the rest of the upcoming season or that we will have a very active early season....Impossible to determine what type of season this will turn out to be and every season brings a surprise or two (over the next five month period...)
Due to a less conducive TRP ATL than 2008 and 2004, most waves will transit relatively unnotice, convective-wise, until the begin to interact with the TUTT and the more unstable enviroment of the Caribbean and Sw N ATL. This is occuring now, with a wave entering the Caribbean today extended further north as TPW showed a moisture surge as it neared 60W.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


uh oh. I know everyone has been talking about "feelings" about stuff today but I am thinking that our time is kind of up here as far as getting a hit goes. A bit worried and trying to get through the next 30 days or so to get packed and out of here.
Could anyone with a personal weather station help me out?? Link
Concerning 90L...has an early season invest (pre and epilouge) ever caused so much havoc, ie. deaths in Haiti, flooding damage, etc.?
Historical climatology suggests a higher probablility for one or two Caribbean/U.S East coast strikes during an ENSO neutral year; at what time or where during the course of the season is anyone's guess....
Jeanne formed just east of the northern lesser antilles. Hit PR as a 70mph TS.
1237. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:
Love this pic


increible pensar que solo fue invest
All models(especially the Euro/Canadian) are pointing more and more towards driving a cold front through the Florida peninsula sometime late this weekend/early next week(anywhere between Saturday night to Tuesday morning).

Since Florida has received a lot of rain, I'm sure a lot of folks will welcome this shot at lower humidity.:)

Could something form from the tail-end of this boundary in the southwestern or central Caribbean?
Can someone tell me where the invests get their "names"? Like where do the "90" and the "L" come from?
I don't know where the 90 comes from but I know they start with 90 then go to 99 then restart with 90 again. The L stands for atLantic ocean, A was taken by the arabian sea I think
num designation from 90 to 99 then back to 90 again l means atlantic basin issued by navy ssd and NHC sites
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I don't know where the 90 comes from but I know they start with 90 then go to 99 then restart with 90 again. The L stands for atLantic ocean, A was taken by the arabian sea I think


ok, good, that's a start
1243. Patrap
The Pacific Ocean Invest are Dived in to 3 Alphabetical Designations due to its Large Size.
90 W,for the West Pacific,90C for the Central Pacific,and 90E for the East Pacific.

W
01-50 for desgnitated depressions/storms
80-89 for test storms
90-99 for invest

Suffixes are added for each basin, L Atlantic, E Eastern Pacific, C Central Pacific, W West Pacific, B Bay of Bengal, A Arabian Sea, S Soouthern Indian ocean, P Southern Pacific Ocean

There are others
thanks guys

good to know!
Quoting JRRP:

increible pensar que solo fue invest


My Spanish is pretty rough but ill give it a shot.

La revision de la NHC puede encontrarlo como una tormenta o depresion tropical
Quoting clwstmchasr:
We should see the bulk of the activity this year form closer to the CONUS. Although, one or two Cape Verde systems cant be ruled out.

Based on what reasoning?


High SAL over the Eastern Atlantic...below average rainfall over the African continent and generally a lack of AEWs so far. The high shear wont help as well.


Okay. Let's see how it plays out.
1248. DDR
Quoting Weather456:
Due to a less conducive TRP ATL than 2008 and 2004, most waves will transit relatively unnotice, convective-wise, until the begin to interact with the TUTT and the more unstable enviroment of the Caribbean and Sw N ATL. This is occuring now, with a wave entering the Caribbean today extended further north as TPW showed a moisture surge as it neared 60W.

Hi 456,so this mean less rainfall for the islands?
just got back on, seems like i missed a lot just now
1250. ackee
THE RISK OF STORM ENTERING THE CARRIBEAN THIS SEASON WILL BE FAR LESS THAN PREVIOUS SEASON MY GUEESS THE BAHAMS TO EAST COAST OF THE US MORE AT RISK THIS SEASONS JUST MY THINKING
Quoting ackee:
THE RISK OF STORM ENTERING THE CARRIBEAN THIS SEASON WILL BE FAR LESS THAN PREVIOUS SEASON MY GUEESS THE BAHAMS TO EAST COAST OF THE US MORE AT RISK THIS SEASONS JUST MY THINKING


Un-select your caps button.
Quoting ackee:
THE RISK OF STORM ENTERING THE CARRIBEAN THIS SEASON WILL BE FAR LESS THAN PREVIOUS SEASON MY GUEESS THE BAHAMS TO EAST COAST OF THE US MORE AT RISK THIS SEASONS JUST MY THINKING


You are no more important then any one else here...please avoid the capitals.
1253. bwi
Seastep post 1213 -- I've been watching those low pressures in the western gulf too, but I think is was Stormchaser2007 with the likely answer back in post 1182 or thereabouts -- hostile shear environment over the Gulf, so no development expected would be my guess.
weather channel just said that they're not anticipating on the Bahama storm on becoming ana?????
Quoting DDR:

Hi 456,so this mean less rainfall for the islands?


Based on where you life. The islands that are exposed directly over the tropical atlantic is expected to recieve less rainfall, while wetter conditions further west. This is only for a short period JAS. Wetter conditions return OND. Probability of exceeding mean rainfall for the Eastern Caribbean this summer - 10%
Quoting theFatherofNature:
weather channel just said that they're not anticipating on the Bahama storm on becoming ana?????


No one should be anticipating a storm. An invest is the only reasonable outcome for now.
1257. Drakoen
Convection has warmed on the west side. We'll see of it can rebound later tonight.
Quoting Drakoen:


Is it forming a Coma shape? Interesting, something seems to be on the Mid-Levels atleast. Latest QuickSAT?
Current GFS forecast for our AOI.



1261. ackee
sorry about the caps everyone
yo hablo espanol, pero cuando ustedes hablan en espanol es fastdidioso, tan no mas espanol. Comprende?

Anyway, I think it's to early to expect another invest or anything else until June
Good night everyone
1264. Ossqss
Interesting, GFS called out a Long Island express storm nearly two weeks ago at 372hr and we are almost there. Chances ?
Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting, GFS called out a Long Island express storm nearly two weeks ago at 372hr and we are almost there. Chances ?


It's May. >.>
Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting, GFS called out a Long Island express storm nearly two weeks ago at 372hr and we are almost there. Chances ?


Nil
Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting, GFS called out a Long Island express storm nearly two weeks ago at 372hr and we are almost there. Chances ?


0%
1268. Ossqss
I detect, consensus. :)
Several people today mentioned Andrew, made me curious to go back and look at the formation, and the track, knowing what I know now.

It certainly does only take one, Andrew was August 1992, and it was the first named storm. Dade County had approximately 38 hours notice that this storm was expected to hit. Compare that to the notice we currently get - the tracks are almost always within the cones at 3 days out. No one knew or expected a storm of that strength. The vast majority of the people in Dade County had no idea what cat 4 or 5 hurricane would do, and precious little time to prepare for it. The warning systems are light years ahead now.

Looking at the pictures of the damage, its hard to remember it being that bad. And we were located in South Dade, the hardest hit areas.
Quoting Ossqss:
I detect, consensus. :)


IMHO, this perhaps will reach invest stage, longer shot at reaching depression stage, and I very rarely make an emphatic statement when it comes to the tropics, will not be a named system.
Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting, GFS called out a Long Island express storm nearly two weeks ago at 372hr and we are almost there. Chances ?
i dont think so
1272. Ossqss
I don't want storms folks, just crossing names off of our contest's first date calls. It sure does seem a bit strangely passive/active this year. Just my take. Perhaps I am paying too much attention to it, LoL

OK...on a light note...I ask this ? every year and no one can answer it (perhaps it is a dumb ?), but I find it interesting...Here it is...Why does the map symbol for a tropical storm have an eye (an open area in the center), and the symbol for a hurricane doesn't, when hurricanes do have an eye (in most cases)?
1274. Ossqss
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
OK...on a light note...I ask this ? every year and no one can answer it (perhaps it is a dumb ?), but I find it interesting...Here it is...Why does the map symbol for a tropical storm have an eye, and the symbol for a hurricane doesn't, when hurricanes do have an eye (in most cases)?


Ummmmmm, its not quite full yet?

Mature if you will. One flag two flags senario :7)
Quoting weatherbro:
All models(especially the Euro/Canadian) are pointing more and more towards driving a cold front through the Florida peninsula sometime late this weekend/early next week(anywhere between Saturday night to Tuesday morning).

Since Florida has received a lot of rain, I'm sure a lot of folks will welcome this shot at lower humidity.:)

Could something form from the tail-end of this boundary in the southwestern or central Caribbean?


you said the almost the same thing about 1 1/2 weeks ago,no more cold fronts w/clear the state until sept/oct earliest,IMO
Quoting Weather456:
The less AEW wave season is not expected to greatly affect the overall numbers during this year. Regardless of any year there is an average of 1 cape verde hurricane. Despite activity in 2005 and 2008, only 1 and 2 cape verde hurricanes form, respectively. What we should be worry about is west of 50W.


Just wanted to say 456! You! are on top of your game my friend.
1277. jpritch
The BOB storm took a heavy toll for "just" a tropical storm:

Cyclone Aila hit the country's south-western coast yesterday afternoon, killing at least 18 people and washing away several thousand homes, as wind-driven tidal surge inundated vast tracts of land.

Four people in Bhola, three each in Khulna, Patuakhali, Noakhali, Laxmipur, one in Barguna and a child in Barisal died, while a few hundred thousand people were marooned in the affected areas.

Over 500 people were reported missing, mostly fishermen who were yet to return from the sea.

In the Indian state of West Bengal, at least 19 people died as Aila lashed Kolkata and five adjoining districts. The cyclone affected around one lakh people in West Bengal and paralysed normal life, reports our correspondent Pallab Bhattacharya from India.


Link
Looking at the bahamas disturbance it appears that even though the convection is weaker the mid level low is trying to tighten the surface trough into a surface low at the moment. I suspect that at this time tomorrow we'll have at the very least an invest. If it can travel closer to the gulf stream possibly something more.
watch the eastern GOM tomorrow,a area of disturbed wx may develop,IMO.....
Quoting Ossqss:
I don't want storms folks, just crossing names off of our contest's first date calls. It sure does seem a bit strangely passive/active this year. Just my take. Perhaps I am paying too much attention to it, LoL

well my pick for first storm in your little contest is may 28 so i got 3 days left
1281. Ossqss
1273 -- Ok, I give up./ I cannot find who or when, the hurricane symbol was actually created and why they made them that way. Can you?
Geez...I picked June 22 for the first named storm...Think I may be in trouble!
Quoting Ossqss:
I don't want storms folks, just crossing names off of our contest's first date calls. It sure does seem a bit strangely passive/active this year. Just my take. Perhaps I am paying too much attention to it, LoL

Well... since 90L shoulda/coulda/woulda been Ana on May 23rd - Do I get half credit?
Quoting Ossqss:
1273 -- Ok, I give up./ I cannot find who or when, the hurricane symbol was actually created and why they made them that way. Can you?


No, I have no clue...that's why I thought it was a trivia-like question for the historians on here!
drak...more of what we don't want...less of what we do want...
is there an LLC in the storm over the bahamas
1288. Ossqss
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well my pick for first storm in your little contest is may 28 so i got 3 days left


My comments were not pointed, just wondering if we had something going that may place a name. I have been out of pocket and just trying to catch up. No fouls here folks !

If we are looking at an average year as forecasted by most experts then I think we'll see an average start for the first storm - mid to late June.
Ossqss...thank you for the clarification!
1293. Drakoen
This evenings quicksat revealed no surface circulation.
1295. surfmom
Quoting Ossqss:
I don't want storms folks, just crossing names off of our contest's first date calls. It sure does seem a bit strangely passive/active this year. Just my take. Perhaps I am paying too much attention to it, LoL



i may be right..... otherwise it's a fatty crow LOL
Quoting presslord:
drak...more of what we don't want...less of what we do want...


Life, the weather.... is there a pattern here?
1296. Ossqss
Not being an expert, I look at long range and then see what happens.

I count on you all to be the eyes and brains along with the local authorities. This blog does provide much needed and valuable insight !

That's a fact folks :)

Evening all. Power is still out here. Looks like this pm's lightning hit a transformer in the area, so all the neighbourhood lights are out. Also means I'm still on dialup. Didn't have time to upload the photo at work, sadly.

I'm going to look at the most recent comments, maybe look at the TWD, forecast maps, and then I'm out. Unless the power comes on before I head to bed, in which case I may stay up for a while. . .
1298. surfmom
Quoting Ossqss:
Not being an expert, I look at long range and then see what happens.

I count on you all to be the eyes and brains along with the local authorities. This blog does provide much needed and valuable insight !

That's a fact folks :)



Wait Ossqss.... this is just the beginning of the ride.... heh, heh, heh
no surface circulation yet. there is a mid level circulation. wind shear at the moment is 20 knots and is expected to decrease to 5-10 by wed, which might allow the mid level circulation to work it's way to the surface
1300. Drakoen
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all. Power is still out here. Looks like this pm's lightning hit a transformer in the area, so all the neighbourhood lights are out. Also means I'm still on dialup. Didn't have time to upload the photo at work, sadly.

I'm going to look at the most recent comments, maybe look at the TWD, forecast maps, and then I'm out. Unless the power comes on before I head to bed, in which case I may stay up for a while. . .


You are on a generator now?
1301. Ossqss
Quoting surfmom:


Wait Ossqss.... this is just the beginning of the ride.... heh, heh, heh


No worry, I signed up for the correspondence course.

When I googled == correspondence course for tropical weather=== here is what I got.

Go Stormw :)

#1 link on Google on my end!

Link
Quoting Drakoen:


You are on a generator now?


Drak...your charm lies in your cynicism...reminds me of me...
...well...actually...my charm clearly lies in my stunning good looks...
1305. Drakoen
Quoting presslord:


Drak...your charm lies in your cynicism...reminds me of me...


lol I was just wondering how he is on a computer without power....
Quoting presslord:
...well...actually...my charm clearly lies in my stunning good looks...
with or without the dress

lol
Quoting presslord:
...well...actually...my charm clearly lies in my stunning good looks...


lol...you love stirring the pot...maybe he is on a battery-operated laptop...which I need to buy for this season. I hear those little acer's are pretty good. Long battery life.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


lol...you love stirring the pot...maybe he is on a battery-operated laptop...which I need to buy for this season. I hear those little acer's are pretty good.


I actually have one of those. They run decent enough.
Pot stirring?!?!?!?!?!?! Moi?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
1311. Ossqss
Quoting Drakoen:


lol I was just wondering how he is on a computer without power....


Here we go again, laptop and UPS on the modem and wireless router. No pics this time ;)

I get 2 hrs contiuous on mine (limited by Laptop battery). Modem and router will work for a day or more without power. Hence, generator or inverter time without interuption. It's all in integration of assets we have already.
Quoting presslord:
Pot stirring?!?!?!?!?!?! Moi?!?!?!?!?!?!?!


LOL...if JFV/P.E/W.S were here...all hell would break loose!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


LOL...if JFV/P.E/W.S were here...all hell would break loose!


..yea...it's a character flaw, I know...but that dude really gets me goin'
1314. Ossqss
Quoting presslord:
...well...actually...my charm clearly lies in my stunning good looks...


Press, every time this comes up I see this !



I really need to know it you were sitting on a chicken when they took the picture of you in the dress. Can someone provide the image for back up. The evidence is in the legs :P
I have VERY sexy legs, I'll have you know....
1316. Ossqss
Quoting presslord:
I have VERY sexy legs, I'll have you know....


To a Rooster ! LoL :)

L8R, gotta get rid of that image, yikes.
...yea...yea....not that I need it or anything...but....I'm off to get some beauty rest...y'all behave...
Quoting Ossqss:


To a Rooster ! LoL :)

L8R, gotta get rid of that image, yikes.


ok - i didn't even SEE press in a dress but i'm laughing my butt off!!!
Quoting presslord:


..yea...it's a character flaw, I know...but that dude really gets me goin'


JFV is taking courses to be a meteorologist. This is just a parody.Meant as humor only...

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 AM EDT JUNE 3, 2009

EVEN THOUGH WE CANNOT DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER OF ANA IS LOCATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST IT WILL NOT STRIKE MY CONDO. I WILL BET MY LIFE THIS IS NOT TRUE. ANY SUGGESTIONS WHAT I SHOULD DO?

FORECASTER JFV

ok...does someone have the link to press in a dress? I am going to have to see this.

I tried to squelch it as press is a fellow sailor and I would hate to see one of my skippers in drag...but hey, let's see it.

Oh...and my kids are asking...
1321. Ossqss
I rest my case - Ouch ! Remember, it was for a good cause !

That pic raised a lot of money! What's next?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


JFV is taking courses to be a meteorologist%u2026.This is just a parody%u2026.Meant as humor only...

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 AM EDT JUNE 3, 2009

EVEN THOUGH WE CANNOT DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER OF ANA IS LOCATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST IT WILL NOT STRIKE MY CONDO. I WILL BET MY LIFE THIS IS NOT TRUE. ANY SUGGESTIONS WHAT I SHOULD DO?

FORECASTER JFV



Or how about:

EVEN THOUGH WE CANNOT DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER OF ANA IS LOCATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST IT WILL NOT STRIKE MY CONDO. I WILL BET MY LIFE THIS IS NOT TRUE. ANY SUGGESTIONS ON WHAT I SHOULD DO? IF NOT, I'M OFF TO TAKE A SHOWER.
1321. Ok...so I don't think i'm gonna be the same again!

My kids are speechless..well not really - my daughter that sails says she LOVES the thigh action going on...

GO PRESS!
OMG! That kinda looks like Susan Boyle (except the hair)!!!!!!
You had to say Susan Boyle..

funny ya posted that jfv thing i just had a poster on my blog jfv2 popst something just like that go check it out
here it is from my blog

36. JFV2 3:23 AM GMT on May 26, 2009
000
AXNT20 KNHC 232338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2009

THIS IS JFV FROM JFVS NATIONAL HURRICANE REPORTING STATION ERR I MEAN HURRICAN CENTER. THIS IS ADVISORY NUMBER I FORGOT WHERE I LEFT OFF AT. I WILL MAKE SURE TO LOOK AT MY CHARTS AND EAT MORE RICE . THIS HAS BEEN A SPECIAL UPDATE FROM THE JFV OFFICE. ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED WHEN I FEEL LIKE GETTING OUT OF BED. $$


Action: Quote | Remove Comment | Ban User | Ignore User


LOL..I never realized what an extensive and informative blog you had! Congrats! Will be checking in regularlly.
Quoting Ossqss:
I rest my case - Ouch ! Remember, it was for a good cause !




is that a photo of presslord in a dress??
thanks WPB its all self updating with storm and track info added as they occur the blog will be up till nov 30
Quoting Tazmanian:



is that a photo of presslord in a dress??
yep from last season
lol
i think dr m did a blog with a photo of him with a dress on can i have a link to that blog
Quoting Drakoen:
Someone better than Susan Boyle


To quote TampaSpin...Wow!
get ready for JFV2 i just banned him from my blog for posting stupid stuff iam sure he will be here on docs blog soon enough
whats the name are we looking for keep??
Quoting Ossqss:
I rest my case - Ouch ! Remember, it was for a good cause !



OMG
That's funny....
ugh he this post on my blog and am sure he is posting on evere blog
1341. K8eCane

...ENERGY/MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE SE AND CAROLINAS...
00Z NAM HAS CONTINUED ITS SEVERAL-RUN TREND IN HAVING A STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVE OUT OF THE BAHAMAS TWD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. IT HAS
NOW REPLACED THE GFS IN BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION AT ALL
LEVELS...LEAVING THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET AS THE WEAKEST SOLUTIONS.
MID LVL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON IR SATL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/CONVECTION...SO THIS SUGGESTS THE
STRONGER SOLUTION MAY BE CORRECT.


from hpc 11pm model diagnostic discussion
Quoting K8eCane:

...ENERGY/MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE SE AND CAROLINAS...
00Z NAM HAS CONTINUED ITS SEVERAL-RUN TREND IN HAVING A STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVE OUT OF THE BAHAMAS TWD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. IT HAS
NOW REPLACED THE GFS IN BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION AT ALL
LEVELS...LEAVING THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET AS THE WEAKEST SOLUTIONS.
MID LVL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON IR SATL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/CONVECTION...SO THIS SUGGESTS THE
STRONGER SOLUTION MAY BE CORRECT.


from hpc 11pm model diagnostic discussion

Can you give me a link to that?
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats the name are we looking for keep??
well there is two now one JFV2 second one is slickasatick i unbanned them taz u can go to my blog to see em
1344. K8eCane
hurricaneking
i dont know how to link but its the hydrometeorological prediction center
model diagnostic discussion
Quoting K8eCane:
hurricaneking
i dont know how to link but its the hydrometeorological prediction center
model diagnostic discussion


Found it.
Quoting K8eCane:
hurricaneking
i dont know how to link but its the hydrometeorological prediction center
model diagnostic discussion


I'd honestly never read that discussion before. They believe what I've been thinking and now the NAM thinks and that's a stronger storm.
Right now our Bahama system looks like crap...but I know things can change quickly overnight.
1349. K8eCane
i see the midlevel rotation north of bahamas they are talking about in their 1115pm discussion
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Right now our Bahama system looks like crap...but I know things can change quicly overnight.


I think it looks pretty good. No convection but it's beginning to try and spin. All it needs is to rebuild the convection and the mid level center will work it's way to the surface which it's trying to do anyway.
1351. K8eCane
definitely some spin action going on
Although at the mid levels it's got the most spin now it's ever had. It's centered around 26/27n 75w moving north possibly nnw.
1353. K8eCane
yes...i had not detected the spin before now
Convection is also beginning to form on a band to the east of the midlevel rotation.
1355. K8eCane
also to the west but not as much as the east side
Looking at the sat. images...ughhhhh
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I see an x
I think you tried to post the loop as an image. Loop=link. image=image button.
Blog Update

AOI #1

AOI #2
Don't quite have a handle on the image and loop thing King!
1362. K8eCane
wow hk
strong storms to the norteast of it


Is this what you were trying to post?
yes sir
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
yes sir


YAY I am good for something.
Let's try this..

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Let's try this..



See already better at it than I am.
Hit and miss King!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hit and miss King!

Practice makes perfect. Normally it's not quiet enough to be able to practice on the docs blog.
Who is really watching this time of night..good time to practice...hey, I feel proud when i can convert a word document into a pdf...that's how lame I am.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Who is really watching this time of night..good time to practice...hey, I feel proud when i can convert a word document into a pdf...that's how lame I am.


Big brother is always watching........
-----
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
-----


Uhhh Goodnight then.
night king
wow almost 5 hours without a single comment..
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWENTY
DEPRESSION, FORMER AILA (BOB02-2009)
11:30 AM IST May 26 2009
===============================

Subject: Deep depression over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal weakened into a depression.

At 6:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal moved further northward, weakened into a depression. Depression, Former Aila lays centered over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal near Bagdogra. The system is likely to weaken over same region into a low pressure area during next 6 hours.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) is likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Assam & Meghalaya during next 24 hours.

Rain/thundershower is also likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during next 24 hours.

Squally wind speed reaching 20-25 knots likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh during next 6 hours.
wow these model runs push even more West into NC
TRACK

CONE
thanks 456
456...Good morning! Is there much chance of this shifting further west?..I'm attending an outdor event Friday AM...am concerned about the slop....
...I'm in Charleston, SC...
Morning All, Big rains in Pasco county Fl again last night. I will take all we can get.
Quoting presslord:
...I'm in Charleston, SC...

i dont think charleston will have any problems past tomorrow cause the system will be to your north
That sounds right nc...it's my son's HS graduation...am hoping for a couple hours of dryness Fri AM...
Quoting presslord:
456...Good morning! Is there much chance of this shifting further west?..I'm attending an outdor event Friday AM...am concerned about the slop....



yea, if it moves a little faster. If it moves a little more quickly the chances of it moving more east is diminish. If it moves slowly, the high will build enough west to allow a more easterly track. Much of the convection however remains east of the center regardless of motion. It should clear the area by Thursday
456...Thanks!
Morning all.

I'm still without DSL internet here. I think my modem got fried yesterday. When I got home from work for good last night, after 10 p.m., our power was still off. Additionally, my phone line was dead, so I couldn't even use that to get online [shudders]. If it's this bad after a Tsstorm, what'll happen in a genuine hurricane?

What's the prognosis on our trough / low? We actually had a visible sunrise today (1st in days), so I'm assuming it's beginning to pull out to the north. Local mets are expecting continued afternoon showers, though, so I'm assuming the overall situation remains unstable.
ummmmmmmm new post plz

not bad i'll give it a B- as far invets or disturbences
456 that image makes it look really good do you think it will get labeled an invest today?
global warming atlantic hurricane season. how about may 15-dec 15? happy weather
Global Warming ***!!!!!!***

Where is my medication?! LOL

Good Morning!
1398. K8eCane
good morning everybody
is that a low level circulation i see?
I suspect that Masters dude will be along shortly to tell us what to think about the Bahama Blob...
Hallo all!
I tend to hang out at Sully's blog,
but began here, peek in from time to time,
and am back for the season of storms.

~~~

{{ { Thinking of the people of Bangladesh this morning, after Cyclone Aila crashed ashore. } }}

~~~

1379. HadesGodWyvern

That will change soon!

~~~

Orcasystems...
Thank-you. I have bookmarked your site.


Quoting presslord:
I suspect that Masters dude will be along shortly to tell us what to think about the Bahama Blob...


Dude? Blob? kind of early for Rum isn't it?
Blog Update

AOI #1

AOI #2
As a matter of fact...it is never too early for rum...
Quoting presslord:
As a matter of fact...it is never too early for rum...


Hmmm I wonder why I knew you were going to say that :)
Was just going to comment, and ask about the low ~1000mb drifting east from Mexico and Texas.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Was just going to comment, and ask about the low ~1000mb drifting east from Mexico and Texas.


Thats why I put it up.. I didn't see anyone mention it yet
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmm I wonder why I knew you were going to say that :)


...because great minds think alike...
1408. vortfix
...CENTRAL/S TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE COLD POOL HAS BEEN PRODUCED BY A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS
THAT IS MOVING OFF THE TX COAST NEAR CRP. OTHER UPSTREAM STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EXTREME NE
MEXICO...AND SOME FORM OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
IMPACT S TX THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A SPEED MAX MOVING EWD
OVER NRN MEXICO. THE OPERATIONAL AND HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REPRESENT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THUS WILL BASE THIS FORECAST
LARGELY ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ONGOING RIO GRANDE STORMS ALONG AND
JUST N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS STILL MOVING SWD INTO DEEP S
TX.

VERTICAL SHEAR OVER S TX IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK WIND DIFFERENCES OF 40-50 KT BENEATH 50-60 KT WLY FLOW AROUND
300 MB...AND CLOCKWISE CURVATURE OF THE HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR
RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING IS
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WHEN MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S. HOWEVER...THE EARLY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW HAVE COMPLICATED THE
SITUATION AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH IN HOW CONVECTION
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND
PROBABILITIES...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL SLIGHT
RISK UPGRADE FOR S TX LATER TODAY.
Good Morning Folks....Thinking it will be quiet in the tropics for next few weeks, as it should be, this early in the year (after all of the recent excitement in the Gulf)...That Bahamas area seems to have lost it's "spunk" this morning.......However, don't know if the models are looking at anything in terms of the area of convection about to leave Texas into the Gulf but shear levels are pretty high in that region right now.
AL, 91, 2009052612, , BEST, 0, 295N, 753W, 25, 1009, DB
1415. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
1st "fish" post in 5,4,3,2...


Here fishee, fishee.
Quoting DestinJeff:
1st "fish" post in 5,4,3,2...


Lets say NY instead
A lot more responses that way.
1417. IKE
Quoting IKE:


Here fishee, fishee.


Comebacks...

(1)Those are early model runs. They could change on the next set.

(2)What's a "fish" storm?

(3)I hate it when someone says fish storm.

(4)You're forgetting Bermuda.

(5)Could it loop back and hit.....

Quoting IKE:


Comebacks...

(1)Those are early model runs. They could change on the next set.

(2)What's a "fish" storm.

(3)I hate it when someone says fish storm.

(4)You're forgetting Bermuda.

(5)Could it loop back and hit.....



lmao
Jeff is probably doing a fast rewrite of this mornings posting right about now :)
Quoting IKE:


Comebacks...

(1)Those are early model runs. They could change on the next set.

(2)What's a "fish" storm?

(3)I hate it when someone says fish storm.

(4)You're forgetting Bermuda.

(5)Could it loop back and hit.....



...also...those on ships and boats ;)
1421. IKE
(6)Could the high build in and force it back west.

In all seriousness, it does look headed out-to-sea.

I'm more interested in the SE Texas and Mexico "blob".

Blob...from wordweb..."An indistinct shapeless form"
1422. IKE
Quoting presslord:


...also...those on ships and boats ;)


LOL...yeah, I forgot that one.

LOL!
1423. vortfix
Or..."the East coast is overdue for the Big One you know"!

Quoting IKE:
(6)Could the high build in and force it back west.

In all seriousness, it does look headed out-to-sea.

I'm more interested in the SE Texas and Mexico "blob".

Blob...from wordweb..."An indistinct shapeless form"


Blob = Presslord in a Dress
Blobs = Dresslord's cleavage
91L has a better chance to develop then 90L (Unnamed Tropical Storm) because wind shear with 91L is more favorable.. the only thing thats slowing it down is cooler water temps.. thats the only thing.
Quoting reedzone:
91L has a better chance to develop then 90L (Unnamed Tropical Storm) because wind shear with 91L is more favorable.. the only thing thats slowing it down is cooler water temps.. thats the only thing.


Its going to stay very favourable also:



Texas.. not so much
1428. NEwxguy
Quoting vortfix:
Or..."the East coast is overdue for the Big One you know"!



Thats one of my favourites, every year I board up my house because we're overdue for the big one.
Quoting NEwxguy:


Thats one of my favourites, every year I board up my house because we're overdue for the big one.


You just do that because you don't want to wash the windows.
I am back from my vacation. I guess I missed a ton of rain in Florida last week. I left and everything was brown and I come back and its all very very green. What's up in the tropics?
Quoting NEwxguy:


Thats one of my favourites, every year I board up my house because we're overdue for the big one.


Morining everyone.....its too early for the big one! Besides the big one occured last nite with that crushing loss by the RAYS! Holly Cow!

I seen the Low closing up last nite.
2 invest and aint June 1 yet lol
1433. NEwxguy
Tim, saw that this morning, there aren't any good losses,but that was ugly!!!!!
Seems as though the NHC isn't as conservative as they were last year. I remember many screaming that storms last year should be Invests and it would take days for them to issue one.

By the way, good mornin all
Quoting IKE:


Comebacks...

(1)Those are early model runs. They could change on the next set.

(2)What's a "fish" storm?

(3)I hate it when someone says fish storm.

(4)You're forgetting Bermuda.

(5)Could it loop back and hit.....



(6) What about the XTRAP model??
1437. NEwxguy
Quoting Orcasystems:


You just do that because you don't want to wash the windows.


Can't get anything by you,can I!!!!
Quoting NEwxguy:
Tim, saw that this morning, there aren't any good losses,but that was ugly!!!!!


Playing that sport.....That loss could kill a season.....big mental breakdown and haunt you mentally a long time.
1439. IKE
Quoting weathersp:


(6) What about the XTRAP model??


LOL.....

(7)I wish it would keep going NW. NC needs the rain.
Quoting weathersp:


(6) What about the XTRAP model??


I LOVE the "X-TRAP" model"...it's my favorite...'cause it's always 100% accurate...
Quoting presslord:


I LOVE the "X-TRAP" model"...it's my favorite...'cause it's always 100% accurate...


Yup, for the few minutes that its posted :)
1442. NEwxguy
Don't forget the hebert boxes?
Quoting NEwxguy:
Don't forget the hebert boxes?


Ohhh man :(

Hmm using google earth... I can put in the lat & Long... draw some lines.. save it.. and post it every time... hmmm

I wonder how long it would take to drive some people insane?
1444. HCW
Xtrap isn't a model ! 91L has no chance to even be an STD so I am not sure why this one got tagged.
new blog
90L gave the east coast great waves-yesterday 3-4' and glass until noon. But water temps are low, at Ponce it was 75, but only the first few inches felt that, as I paddled I could really feel the colder water below. So this location not quite ready for prime time yet. Of course, being 58 years old, what was once warm, is now cold!!
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Seems as though the NHC isn't as conservative as they were last year. I remember many screaming that storms last year should be Invests and it would take days for them to issue one.

By the way, good mornin all


I think that is because both of these were close to HOME.
Quoting HCW:
Xtrap isn't a model ! 91L has no chance to even be an STD so I am not sure why this one got tagged.


Whats your reason?? Shear is low.. the only thing that could inhibit any development would be cooler water temps. Know your facts..
Shear is 5-10 knots over the storm and dry air is not in that area.