WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

63.5°F in Antarctica: Possible Continental Record; 14 Years of Rain in 1 Day in Chile

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 2:58 PM GMT on March 27, 2015

The warmest temperature ever recorded on the continent of Antarctica may have occurred on Tuesday, March 24, 2015, when the mercury shot up to 63.5°F (17.5°C) at Argentina's Esperanza Base on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the previous hottest temperature recorded in Antarctica was 63.3°F (17.4°C) set just one day previously at Argentina's Marambio Base, on a small islet just off the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Prior to this week's remarkable heat wave, the hottest known temperature in Antarctica was the 62.8°F (17.1°C) recorded at Esperanza Base on April 24, 1961. (The World Meteorological Organization—WMO—has not yet certified that this week's temperatures are all-time weather records for Antarctica, though the Argentinian weather service has verified that the temperatures measured at Esperanza Base and Marambio Base were the highest ever measured at each site.) A new all-time temperature record for an entire continent is a rare event, and Weather Underground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has full details in his latest post.


Figure 1. Argentina's Esperanza Base on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula: the hottest place in Antarctica. Image credit: Wikipedia.

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming spots on Earth. A 2012 Climate Central post by Michael Lemonick documented how while the Earth as a whole warmed up by 1.3°F between 1900 and 2011, the Antarctic Peninsula warmed by 5°, forcing massive ice shelves to disintegrate and penguin colonies to collapse. A 2012 paper in Nature found that the recent warming is faster than 99.7% of any other given 100-year period in the last 2000 years.

New all-time national and territorial heat records set or tied in 2015
So far in 2015, five nations or territories have tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history. For comparison, only two nations or territories did so in 2014, and nine did in 2013. The most all-time national heat records in a year was nineteen in 2010 (21 records at the time, but two have been broken since.) Since 2010, 46 nations or territories (out of a total of 235) have set or tied all-time heat records, and four have set all-time cold temperature records. Since each of those years ranked as one of the top twelve warmest years in Earth's recorded history, this sort of disparity in national heat and cold records is to be expected. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page. Here are the national heat and cold records set so far in 2015:

Antarctica set a new territorial heat record of 17.5°C (63.5°F) at Esperanza Base on March 24. Previous record: 17.4°C (63.3°F) at Marambio Base, set the previous day.
Equatorial Guinea set a new national heat record of 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Bata on March 17. Previous record:  35.3°C (95.5°F) at Malabo in February 1957.
Ghana tied the national record of highest temperature with 43.0°C (109.4°F)  at Navrongo on February 12.
Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.5°C (95.9°F) on January 19 at Futuna Airport.
Samoa tied its national heat record with 36.5°C (97.7°F) on January 20 at Asau. Previously record: same location, in December 1977.


Figure 2. Residents watch the rising flood waters of the Copiapo River, in Copiapo, Chile, Wednesday, March 25, 2015. Unusually heavy thunderstorms and torrential rains that began on Tuesday have caused destructive flooding that has killed seven and left nineteen others missing. (AP Photo/Aton Chile)

Amazing rains in the Chilean desert
Unwelcome rains fell this week in Earth's driest place--Chile's Atacama Desert--causing destructive flooding that has left seven people dead and at nineteen others missing. Antofagasta, which averaged just 3.8 mm of precipitation per year between 1970 - 2000, and has a long-term average of 1.7 mm of precipitation per year, received a deluge of 24.4 mm (0.96 inches) during the 24 hour period ending at 8 am EDT March 26. That's over fourteen years of rain in one day! The rains were due to an unusually strong and persistent "cut-off" low pressure system that was trapped over Chile by the exceptionally strong ridge of high pressure that brought the warmest temperatures on record to Antarctica early in the week. A cold front associated with the cut-off low hit the Andes Mountains, dumping rains over soils with very little vegetation (due to the dry climate.) Unusually warm ocean temperatures approximately 1°C (1.8°F) above average off of the coast meant that high amounts of water vapor were available to fuel the storm and generate exceptionally heavy rains. Heavy precipitation events are common in Chile during El Niño events, like we are experiencing now. El Niño brings warmer than average waters to the Pacific coast of South America where Chile lies.



Video 1. Raging flood waters sweep through one of the driest places on Earth, Chile’s Atacama Desert, on March 25, 2015, after fourteen years’ worth of rain (0.96”) fell in one day. Thanks go to wunderground member ChrisHamburg for posting this link in my blog comments.

This week’s WunderPoster: Double red rainbow
Consider yourself lucky if you’ve seen a double red rainbow, the phenomenon highlighted in this week’s WunderPoster. This is a special case of the faint secondary rainbow that can sometimes be seen above a primary rainbow, with the sequence of colors reversed from top to bottom. Any rainbow may take on a primarily reddish tint if it occurs very late or very early in the day, when the sun is low on the horizon. The low angle means that sunlight travels through a larger swath of atmosphere. Shorter wavelengths (blues and violets) are more likely to be filtered out, leaving the longer wavelengths (reds and oranges) to predominate.

All WunderPosters can be downloaded in formats suitable for posters or postcards. There’s still one more week for you to provide photographic inspiration for a new WunderPoster, as part of the 20th anniversary celebration of Weather Underground. The deadline for submissions is April 2. Our “picture yourself here” website has all the details.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


Red rainbow
Red rainbow
Red Rainbow, Teasdale, UT
Red Rainbow, Teasdale, UT

Heat Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 434. Webberweather53:



Thanks. I briefly skimmed over the AMO post multi El Nino years, & didn't see nearly the same response in category 4-5 hurricane tracks w/ a more scattered/disorganized distribution, perhaps this response to induce rather extreme Caribbean "Cruisers" following prolonged El Nino events is unique to the -AMO. Even though the sample size is rather small, every multi-year El Nino that's occurred in the -AMO (also being at least 5 years removed from a major phase shift, thus eliminating 1899-1901 & 1968-1970 from this analysis) has produced at least one hurricane season in the following 3 years w/ >100 pts of ACE. Assuming we see a major phase shift in the AMO within the next few years (if it hasn't happened already), the next multi year El Nino will be interesting. Highlighted in blue, those -AMO post multi El Nino years utterly dominate. The top 6 most active -AMO hurricane seasons on record are from that subset of years...



It ain't over until the fat lady sings! She may be in sight, but she isn't singing quite yet.
I personally don't believe we're about to see a phase change in the AMO in the next coming years. We've only seen one season of negative values of the AMO, (2014) according to NOAA. And even with 2014 starting off negative it still ended up peaking at values close to the AMO phase average.


Monthly AMO values 2010-2015


2015 has returned to positive values which is why I'm not buying into the return of a negative phase. The AMO typically increases through the Summer months so it seems a little less likely 2015 will see -AMO values like 2014. However, if we do see 2015 return to negative during late spring or during the fall, I may be a tad more inclined to agree with you. My belief is that three inactive hurricane seasons isn't a harbinger to a return to the negative phase. 2013, as odd as it was, sported a positive AMO; 2014 strengthened through the Summer into a positive AMO; 2015 has started the year in a weakly positive state that should increase through the Summer as 2014 did. The difference when looking at AMO phases and -AMO phases is the fact that in -AMO phases or "transition years" into -AMO you see years where the AMO completely flips and stays negative for a consistent amount of time.

Barbamz - That tragedy in Chile is horrible.
Quoting 488. georgevandenberghe:



Peach blossoms tolerate some freezing and 28F esp without wind shouldn't bother them.



Yes, I'm fine. Lettuce didn't even take a hit. Upstate may be a different story.
Patrick Henry Mall Area, Martinsville, Virginia (PWS)
Updated: 3:48 PM EDT on March 29, 2015
Clear
49.8 °F / 9.9 °C
Clear
Windchill: 50 °F / 10 °C
Humidity: 17%
Dew Point: 6 °F / -14 °C
Wind: 3.0 mph / 4.8 km/h / 1.3 m/s from the West
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph / 9.7 km/h
Pressure: 30.29 in / 1026 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
looks like a good day for NASCAR too.
505. VR46L
Quoting 504. PedleyCA:

Patrick Henry Mall Area, Martinsville, Virginia (PWS)
Updated: 3:48 PM EDT on March 29, 2015
Clear
49.8 F / 9.9 C
Clear
Windchill: 50 F / 10 C
Humidity: 17%
Dew Point: 6 F / -14 C
Wind: 3.0 mph / 4.8 km/h / 1.3 m/s from the West
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph / 9.7 km/h
Pressure: 30.29 in / 1026 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
looks like a good day for NASCAR too.


And its a great day for Moto Gp fans !!!!

:)

GFS has this lose power before the Islands

Quoting 505. VR46L And its a great day for Moto GP fans !!!!

Yes, I see what you mean, so cool......
Quoting 502. Dakster:

Barbamz - That tragedy in Chile is horrible.

I just hope El Nino doesn't have more surprises like this one in store (although weather won't care about my and other wishes, for sure ;-).

BTW, Alaska provides very relaxed surfing spots. Maybe you'll like to join this lonely guy sometime, Dakster?


26.03.2015: On a rainy March morning, a lone paddleboarder rode a bore tide along Turnagain Arm in Southcentral Alaska. Leif Ramos had the wave to himself as he rode 45 minutes from just past Bird Point to Girdwood.

With this a good night from stormy Germany, and a peaceful new week!

Stronger thunderstorms driving rise in tropical rainfall - study
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Thu, 26 Mar 2015 15:25 GMT
LONDON, March 26 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - An increase in strong thunderstorms could be responsible for greater rainfall in the tropics as a result of climate change, new research says.
The joint research, which was conducted by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) and NASA, research found that even though other types of rainfall have decreased in frequency and the total number of thunderstorms has remained the same, the increase in big storms has elevated total rainfall.
Thunderstorms play a key role in keeping the topics wet, with large thunderstorms delivering almost 50 percent of its total rainfall despite only occurring 5 percent of the time in equatorial regions.
The study, which was published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, was based on satellite observations and showed that the frequency of big and powerful thunderstorms increased in the tropics between 1998 and 2009 and was strongly correlated with rainfall changes. ...
I read that article in ADN yesterday. And they had an earlier article about it as well. I want to do it... But want and able are two different things. Right now I am not physically able to do it.

It isn't as easy as it looks and there is a huge price to pay for falling off the board or what happens more often - the tide leaves you behind. Which is a LONG LONG paddle back and the water isn't exactly "warm" either. But what a ride!

The tides here are amazing. They are fast and HIGH. Like nothing I had ever seen before.
Quoting 487. ricderr:
another thing the hypsters are not mentioning....is...although the warm pool is quite large....is look at the large and growing cold anomaly to follow.....pro mets are starting to mention it





Cool water has to upwell somewhere since all the oceanic heat is been sent east across the Pacific.
Quoting Dakster:
ColoradBob - It is almost like the Earth has "turned off power to the freezer section", the ice already bulilt up is melting and keeping us cool as it does it. Just like your home freezer - Just because the fridge loses power doesn't mean it immediately reaches room temp. It takes time and then all of sudden, the ice cream is a sloppy mess.

That is kinda of what I took out of your post.


This isn't quite an analog since the atmosphere in most places does not operate as a refrigerator, extracting heat from cold places to deposit it in warm places (which requires power BTW). Intense baroclinic storms do sometimes do this "making their own cold air" and intensifying the temperature gradient but they do it at the expense of either atmosperic kinetic energy or potential energy someplace else being reduced.
My comment wasn't meant to be taken that seriously.
Quoting washingtonian115:
There are only a few winters where I can remember the cold lingering like this around the D.C area.Record lows could be challenged tonight into tomorrow morning.The cherry Blossoms are having a hard time blooming this year.Could set them back another week.We need some prolonged warmth around here.


April 18, 1958 is the record latest cherryblossom peak. We have a shot at beating that this year.

March 1960 was MUCH colder than this March but the last few days were record warm and April 1960 was very warm. March 1978 was grim and cold the first half, like winter but then it broke and the last half was quite warm.

I feel old remembering 1978. 1960 I read about.
Quoting 512. georgevandenberghe:



April 18, 1958 is the record latest cherryblossom peak. We have a shot at beating that this year.

March 1960 was MUCH colder than this March but the last few days were record warm and April 1960 was very warm. March 1978 was grim and cold the first half, like winter but then it broke and the last half was quite warm.

I feel old remembering 1978. 1960 I read about.

I was only eight back in 78 so I didn't really pay all that much attention to the weather unless it was something significant and memorable.
Really Washi? I was only 6 then and I remember that late Cherry Blossom very well. (not). Heck, I barely remember it snowing in Miami... I actually didn't realize it was a big deal at the time either. Seeing as I was in Kindergarten at the time. And I had seen snow before.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:


Yes, I'm fine. Lettuce didn't even take a hit. Upstate may be a different story.
Shows you what some clouds can do to keep a frost away. It was 45 at midnight...and stayed there until 6:30, when it dropped to 42 for a half hour. The cloud cover extended from the Panhandle north to about Birmingham, and all of central and south Alabama stayed above freezing. North Alabama, which was clear, dropped into the mid-20's, so we lucked out. At least for this morning's cold, the pecan trees were right. :-) This should be the last threat of frost this far south. We have had a frost as late as April 13, but that happened once in records going back to 1880. I'm hoping this year we don't run into another outlier.
Quoting 514. Dakster:

Really Washi? I was only 6 then and I remember that late Cherry Blossom very well. (not). Heck, I barely remember it snowing in Miami... I actually didn't realize it was a big deal at the time either. Seeing as I was in Kindergarten at the time. And I had seen snow before.
Lol I'm showing my age aren't I :).Hurricanes are the weather phenomenon that struck my interest back in 79 when David ran through.I over heard my parents talking about "a unusual large swirling storm rambling up the east coast".We watched the news and I saw the then weather graphics (lol) showing what looked like a bowling ball.Local thunderstorms have been a interest as well for me.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Story I saw on the Today Show this weekend. NBC Today Show meteorologist, Dylan Dreyer visits the Sierra Mountains to see the drought first hand.

Snow-Starved Sierra Spell Trouble for Drought-Stricken California
Link

Orange markers on the road to Tioga Pass are supposed to measure how much snow has fallen. As NBC News' Dylan Dreyer shows, they're unnecessary this year.
The snowpack in Tioga Pass this year is really bad, but there is snow. The NBC crew seems to have gotten part of their story wrong. The orange post is not there to measure snow. It's there to warn plow drivers that there's an obstruction ahead (in this case, the wall and bridge railing) and it's time to raise the plow. I note the caption is careful to say it's on the road to Tioga Pass, which is true, but that picture was taken at a bridge which, if memory serves, is at about 6,000 feet, and far below the 9,943 foot pass and the area of the road that's closed for the winter. There's still most of April to go for the mountain snow season. All we can hope for is another "April Miracle", which has saved snow season before.
Thanks HaoleboySurfEC and StormWatch247, I'm looking forward to the next opportunity to test this out, even though we may be a decade or so away from that point, I would like to put a 5th -AMO multi-year El Nino under my belt...

Quoting 501. TylerStanfield:


It ain't over until the fat lady sings! She may be in sight, but she isn't singing quite yet.
I personally don't believe we're about to see a phase change in the AMO in the next coming years. We've only seen one season of negative values of the AMO, (2014) according to NOAA. And even with 2014 starting off negative it still ended up peaking at values close to the AMO phase average.


Monthly AMO values 2010-2015


2015 has returned to positive values which is why I'm not buying into the return of a negative phase. The AMO typically increases through the Summer months so it seems a little less likely 2015 will see -AMO values like 2014. However, if we do see 2015 return to negative during late spring or during the fall, I may be a tad more inclined to agree with you. My belief is that three inactive hurricane seasons isn't a harbinger to a return to the negative phase. 2013, as odd as it was, sported a positive AMO; 2014 strengthened through the Summer into a positive AMO; 2015 has started the year in a weakly positive state that should increase through the Summer as 2014 did. The difference when looking at AMO phases and -AMO phases is the fact that in -AMO phases or "transition years" into -AMO you see years where the AMO completely flips and stays negative for a consistent amount of time.




Those "transition" phases are largely at the mercy of interannual ENSO variance, the signatures of the multi-year +ENSO events of 1968-1970, 1986-1988, & 1990-95 are very apparent in that graphic...

I'm not basing the return of the -AMO merely on the premise of the overall trends in the last few years in regards to Atlantic Hurricane ACE alone (aside from the fact that you simply don't see non- El Nino hurricane seasons w/ <50 pts of ACE w/o a phase shift lurking in the background. In fact, all non Nino seasons w/ less than 50 pts of ACE (1962, 1970, 1973, & 1993) occurred within the 3 years (or less) of major AMO phase shifts (1965, (spike in 1968-69), 1970, & 1995), the AMO really isn't positive, NOAA's index is largely neutral at best.

Klotzbach & Gray's (2008) AMO index, unlike NOAA's index that relies solely on monthly basin wide Kaplan SSTs, Klotzbach & Gray incorporate basin wide SLP & far north Atlantic SSTs into the calculation, hence it's likely more efficient at capturing interanual-multidecadal AMO variability rather than each parameter on their own & it actually appears more consistent w/ current observations...



Jan-Feb -AMO SST regression satellite era (1979-present)




(Yes, I know I'm weighing this year alone against a few sets of appreciably longer data, which naturally tend towards a "normal" distribution w/ increasing # of observations), using this strictly for comparison purposes between the two longer sets of years within their respective AMO phases & for detecting inconsistencies or SST anomalies that may be causing the NOAA data to diverge from Kltozbach & Gray (2008), it appears the +SST anomalies northeast of South America & in the Caribbean are contributing to the neutral-slightly positive reporting from NOAA, although it's very clear that the SST expression is in compliance w/ the -AMO in the areas of the Atlantic that exhibit the highest seasonal correlations (i.e. -SSTs within the Canary current along the west coast of Europe/Africa & +SSTs off the US east coast/Gulf of Mexico)


Subtracting off this year's SSTs from the last 2 AMO regimes, it's obvious that the AMO is significantly lower this year vs the recent +AMO period that began in 1995 & is more reminiscent to 1970-1994 for Jan-Feb...

vs 1970-1994 (-AMO)


vs 1995-2013 (+AMO)


This index from Klotzbach & Gray has registered the lowest monthly AMO values since 1994 in both January & February...




& that likely isn't going to change in the next month or two, but I could see a more legitimate flip occurring during/after the following winter once we see a sustained, basin-wide/EP Nino... (as supported by a recent paper published in AGU from Amaya & Foltz (Feb 2014) "Impacts of canonical and Modoki El Nino on tropical Atlantic SSTs" Link

El Ninos lead to a strengthening of the extratropical Pacific/North American Pattern via an “atmospheric bridge” through which, the strengthening of the Aleutian Low leads to downstream pattern amplification w/ ridging on the windward side of the Rockies in western North America & lower than normal heights on the leeward side of the Appalachians/southeastern US. This Below Normal SE US height anomaly weakens the semi-permanent subtropical Azores-Bermuda High, thus causing the northeasterly trade winds in the tropical Atlantic to slacken, allows the tropical SSTs to warm, and these anomalously warm SSTs tend to peak in the boreal spring, one season after the climax of the antecedent El Nino event. It is also suggested that a low SST-cloud shortwave radiation feedback (affecting incoming shortwave radiation), as well as surface humidity, temperature gradients contribute to the SST response to El Ninos (especial canonical events), perhaps more so than alterations to wind stress/upper oceanic mixing...
Maysak
Here's the link to the Klotzbach & Gray paper, I accidentally submitted an image for what was supposed to be a link (oops :) ), and I've noticed occasionally when I make extremely large posts, I can't go back & fix these minute/rather annoying errors...
Link
Quoting 516. washingtonian115:

Lol I'm showing my age aren't I :).Hurricanes are the weather phenomenon that struck my interest back in 79 when David ran through.I over heard my parents talking about "a unusual large swirling storm rambling up the east coast".We watched the news and I saw the then weather graphics (lol) showing what looked like a bowling ball.Local thunderstorms have been a interest as well for me.


I remember getting prepared for Hurr. David too.... It was actually the first Hurricane that my mother and grandmother had to prepare for by themselves as my Grandfather who usually did it had passed away.
Our next cool down should be around Easter Sunday according to most reliable models. Afterwards a subtropical ridge over Mexico could be a harbinger of severe weather for the Plains/Southeast!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Funny how things get regurgitated:

Reports have said that Weather Underground, which is an Argentinian meteorological station on the Antarctic Peninsula just recorded a ground shattering high temperature of 63.50F on the 24th of March.


Most just reference bloggers on WU
The story was written by someone named Micah Dakolo. Assuming he's using his real name, Google shows he's a guy from Nigeria who likes English football. This person does not write like a native English speaker, so that would be consistent with a NIgerian, and he got a lot of facts wrong. Just one more reason to take anything coming from these new accumulator web sites with a grain of salt.
Here's this modis shot from some hours ago that shows Maysak's struggle. It has a yin/yang to it. Watching that on IR showed the one on the left much drier than the one on the right even. Looking at dvorak it's weakened some the last few hours.

Quoting 523. Dakster:



I remember getting prepared for Hurr. David too.... It was actually the first Hurricane that my mother and grandmother had to prepare for by themselves as my Grandfather who usually did it had passed away.
I felt like we switched places with Florida in 2011 and 2012 when we had to prepare for Irene and then a year later Sandy.Hopefully no Hazel's are on the horizon any time soon..Or how 'bout never.
Quoting barbamz:

I just hope El Nino doesn't have more surprises like this one in store (although weather won't care about my and other wishes, for sure ;-).

BTW, Alaska provides very relaxed surfing spots. Maybe you'll like to join this lonely guy sometime, Dakster?


26.03.2015: On a rainy March morning, a lone paddleboarder rode a bore tide along Turnagain Arm in Southcentral Alaska. Leif Ramos had the wave to himself as he rode 45 minutes from just past Bird Point to Girdwood.

With this a good night from stormy Germany, and a peaceful new week!

Stronger thunderstorms driving rise in tropical rainfall - study
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Thu, 26 Mar 2015 15:25 GMT
LONDON, March 26 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - An increase in strong thunderstorms could be responsible for greater rainfall in the tropics as a result of climate change, new research says.
The joint research, which was conducted by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) and NASA, research found that even though other types of rainfall have decreased in frequency and the total number of thunderstorms has remained the same, the increase in big storms has elevated total rainfall.
Thunderstorms play a key role in keeping the topics wet, with large thunderstorms delivering almost 50 percent of its total rainfall despite only occurring 5 percent of the time in equatorial regions.
The study, which was published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, was based on satellite observations and showed that the frequency of big and powerful thunderstorms increased in the tropics between 1998 and 2009 and was strongly correlated with rainfall changes. ...
Just watching that video made my body temperature drop by five degrees. I wonder if he actually rode that the entire time? The wave itself wasn't that impressive but it would have been quite a physical feet just to stand on that board for 45 minutes and not fall off.

I really don't understand that study. I wonder what part of the tropics it covered? As usual with Nature, the study is behind a paywall, so I can't read it unless I cough up $36. It must not cover the tropical areas of Brazil, which certainly haven't been getting higher rainfall. Since the study only covers a period of 10 years, I'd like to see how they arrived at the conclusion that large thunderstorms have increased and can extrapolate that out to a longer timescale.
Quoting 520. Webberweather53:


Thank you for your input. I had a feeling you were referring to Gray and Klotzbach's AMO method when you were talking about -AMO. I tend to believe that the overall stagnant ENSO/ El Nino has made a significant impact on the overall phase of the AMO. I agree ENSO and AMO are correlated very closely with one another, so the fate of the ENSO going into next year will help give a good indication of what the overall AMO phase will begin to favor. Overall, it appears to me that the AMO (though neutral) should not significantly deter Atlantic activity as much as the El Nino will. I respect your own findings into the AMO and with the fact that we still don't know much about the AMO and how it exactly transitions between phases, it really means that we will just have to wait and see what the next years bring.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.



big warm up coming soon for the northeast
Northeast, Mid-Atlantic Outlook
In the Northeast and parts of the Great Lakes, a minor additional jet stream dip will keep the region near or below average to start this week. Some locations may even see light snow or a rain/snow mix from weak disturbances in this jet stream dip. However, we will see a complete pattern change late in the week. In short, the jet stream will lift north into Canada across the East, while a dip in the jet stream swings into the West and parts of the Plains.

Northeast Forecast
As a result, temperatures will fluctuate between the 30s, 40s and 50s for the first half of the week before finally warming into the 50s and 60s late in the week. In the Mid-Atlantic, including Washington, D.C., highs in the 60s are expected to start the week, then warming into the 70s late week.
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
2354 UTC SUN MAR 29 2015

...PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.6
* ORIGIN TIME 2349 UTC MAR 29 2015
* COORDINATES 4.7 SOUTH 152.7 EAST
* DEPTH 33 KM / 20 MILES
* LOCATION NEW IRELAND REGION PAPUA NEW GUINEA


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.6 OCCURRED IN
THE NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA AT 2349 UTC ON SUNDAY
MARCH 29 2015.

* BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS... HAZARDOUS
TSUNAMI WAVES ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTS LOCATED WITHIN 1000 KM
OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER.


TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED
---------------------------------

* HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 1000 KM OF THE EPICENTER ALONG THE COASTS OF

PAPUA NEW GUINEA AND SOLOMON ISLANDS
Quoting 533. hurricanes2018:



big warm up coming soon for the northeast
es...And then it'll seem like a pipe dream for what's to come afterward...
Tsunami Watch and Tsunami Warning!
I hope nothing bad happens! Wouldn't want to wake up to the news hearing about destruction in the pacific.Hopefully this to shall pass like the one in March 2010.
Quake has been revised by the USGS:

was 7.7 at a depth of 65.7km
now 7.5 at a depth of 40.0km

USGS M7.5 - 55km SE of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea
Quoting 539. washingtonian115:

I hope nothing bad happens! Wouldn't want to wake up to the news hearing about destruction in the pacific.Hopefully this to shall pass like the one in March 2010.


I hope so too. Of course I watch these a little more closer than I used to. Seeing as I am in an area that could get a Tsunami.... Although my current rental house is pretty high up the mountain. And It is very easy to get even higher up. I don't even need to start a vehicle to do it either. Just walk up the mountain some more. I can only get around 5300 feet up so that way. I would hope that is high enough.
Quoting 540. skycycle:



Earthquake-report.com Live Updates


Not good for the NW facing areas of Vanuatu.



Not good for the NW facing areas of Vanuatu.


Tsunami Advisory

Tsunami Information number 1 for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department Port Vila at 10:58am, Monday, 30 March 2015

At 10:49am local time 30 March 2015, an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 was located at 4.7 degrees south, 152.7 Degrees East. This is about 1,800 kilometers northwest of TORBA.

Based on all available and historical data, a destructive Tsunami is not expected within Vanuatu. This will be the only statement for this event unless additional data are received.
Maysak has really begun to organize much better now.. Click pic for loop.
And suddenly, Maysak sports a clear eye.

Quoting 544. HadesGodWyvern:



Tsunami Advisory

Tsunami Information number 1 for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department Port Vila at 10:58am, Monday, 30 March 2015

At 10:49am local time 30 March 2015, an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 was located at 4.7 degrees south, 152.7 Degrees East. This is about 1,800 kilometers northwest of TORBA.

Based on all available and historical data, a destructive Tsunami is not expected within Vanuatu. This will be the only statement for this event unless additional data are received.



Ah. I was worried about them because they're still recovering from pam. Also, you know how the Gulf has a gently sloping continental shelf that helps to cause high storm surges? Vanuatu doesn't have that as there's deep ocean water just offshore. Hopefully they'd still get to higher ground as a safety measure.

Still in the 80's here, 85.5F here today....
TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED
---------------------------------

* TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING 1 TO 3 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG SOME COASTS OF

PAPUA NEW GUINEA.


* TSUNAMI WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.3 METERS ABOVE
THE TIDE LEVEL FOR THE COASTS OF

MEXICO... GUATEMALA... COSTA RICA... PANAMA... COLOMBIA...
ECUADOR... PERU... CHILE... ANTARCTICA... AUSTRALIA... JAPAN...
PHILIPPINES... NEW CALEDONIA... NEW ZEALAND... TAIWAN...
CHINA... NORTHERN MARIANAS... GUAM... PALAU... YAP... POHNPEI...
CHUUK... KOSRAE... MARSHALL ISLANDS... FIJI... SAMOA... AMERICAN
SAMOA... COOK ISLANDS... TOKELAU... VANUATU... KIRIBATI...
FRENCH POLYNESIA... NAURU... WAKE ISLAND... MIDWAY ISLAND...
JOHNSTON ISLAND... JARVIS ISLAND... PALMYRA ISLAND... HOWLAND
AND BAKER... TONGA... TUVALU... WALLIS AND FUTUNA... NIUE...
SOLOMON ISLANDS... INDONESIA... RUSSIA... HAWAII... AND NW
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.


* ACTUAL AMPLITUDES AT THE COAST MAY VARY FROM FORECAST
AMPLITUDES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND LOCAL
FEATURES. IN PARTICULAR MAXIMUM TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ON ATOLLS
WILL LIKELY BE MUCH SMALLER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES.

* FOR OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS PRODUCT A FORECAST HAS NOT
YET BEEN COMPUTED. THE FORECAST WILL BE EXPANDED AS NECESSARY
IN SUBSEQUENT PRODUCTS.
Quoting 546. TropicalAnalystwx13:

And suddenly, Maysak sports a clear eye.


You can still see dry air around the CDO.
Quoting 546. TropicalAnalystwx13:

And suddenly, Maysak sports a clear eye.>

..and it's adjusted T# rallies..
553. 882MB
After some entrainment of dry air, earlier today on Maysak, looks like it has overcome that and its now on its way to Super typhoon status. We also now have 99W behind Maysak. GFS develops it, but ECMWF doesn't do anything with it.



Maysak





99W



Anybody see the roll clouds across the Tennessee valley today?
555. 882MB
On a good note, if Maysak continues moving the way it is, Yap will not be on the dirty side of this system which is good news. But remember it could just be a slight jog. If Maysak turns more westward then it will not be good for Yap. But I'm liking that Maysak is gaining latitude. You can see the island of Yap on the left side of this loop below.



556. flsky
The skies looked like this in southern MI when I was there last fall. I assumed it was because they were coming in from the lake. What do you think?


Quoting 554. Skyepony:

Anybody see the roll clouds across the Tennessee valley today?

Overnight bloggers

Im updating the hurricane scorecard right now.
Currently 64 are listed.

Feel free to join. Or wait until next update in about 2 weeks or so
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Tsunami Advisory

Tsunami Information number 1 for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department Port Vila at 10:58am, Monday, 30 March 2015

At 10:49am local time 30 March 2015, an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 was located at 4.7 degrees south, 152.7 Degrees East. This is about 1,800 kilometers northwest of TORBA.

Based on all available and historical data, a destructive Tsunami is not expected within Vanuatu. This will be the only statement for this event unless additional data are received.
Earthquakes in the trench off that area of the PNG rarely affect other areas of the Pacific. If there was going to be a tsunami, it would normally affect coastal areas of the PNG facing the quake, and the epicenter of the quake is too far south and too relatively deep to set off much a tsunami. A tsunami can hit the area around Rabaul very quickly if there's a shallow quake right offshore but that doesn't seem to be the case here.

As a historical aside, the area of Rabaul is in the caldera of a big volcano that has caused eruptions and tectonic earthquakes for a long time, at least back to the 1700's. The Japanese had their biggest naval base outside Japan at Rabaul after they captured the island from Australia in 1942. The area went through many large and damaging earthquakes in the 30's, culminating in a gigantic eruption in 1937 that leveled most of the area we know as Rabaul today, killing over 500 people. The Australians moved their capital to the mainland after that and really didn't fight very hard to keep Rabaul, given its history, but made their stand at Port Moresby. The Japanese spent lots of effort and money to rebuild Rabaul as the most defended port in the Pacific, and also improved Simpson Harbor, one of the best natural harbors in the southwest Pacific. The Japanese assumed the Allies would land and try to capture Rabaul as they advanced, and that was the original plan. The Australians advised MacArthur and Nimitz to bypass Rabaul and let it get destroyed by another eruption. Other than air attacks, the Allies never did land to retake Rabaul during WWII, and the 35,000 strong Japanese defenders were reduced to less than 17,000 by starvation and disease by the time the base surrendered in September of 1945. Bypassing worked, even if Rabaul wasn't destroyed by another eruption.

That's not the end of the story however. All the money the Japanese spent on rebuilding Rabaul was mostly intact away from the harbor, since Allied air attacks were mostly focused on the harbor facilities and shipping. After the war, Rabaul quickly grew due to the excellent natural harbor, and became the PNG's chief port after independence. The population grew to about 20,000 when the volcano blew again in 1994. It once again leveled Rabaul, and even though the population only had 19 hours warning, the evacuation went smoothly. It had been planned since 1983, when the volcanoes showed signs of activity again, so only five people died. Even though the PNG moved its provincial capital to Kokopo, inland and away from the volcano, the harbor at Rabaul is still the best in the area, and things are being rebuilt and people are moving back into the danger area again. It's a Catch 22 for the PNG, since the only good deepwater port they have is Rabaul, and all their exports and almost all their imports are carried by shipping. Rabaul will continue to grow until the inevitable happens again. When you hear Rabaul was destroyed by a volcano or an earthquake, you'll at least know the story behind it.
Out of curiosity, I recently decided to combine the MEI/ONI ENSO rankings into making standardized winter (DJF) US temperature composites for various ENSO intensities. In doing so, I realized I could have saved a lot of trouble & heartache if I had come up with this information 2 years ago, as the last 2 winters have followed this series of composites nearly verbatim...
Hindsight is 20-20...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Found this amazing picture of a shelf cloud seen at St. Pete Beach, Florida yesterday. See the skull?



Very cool! I've always liked this cloud

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 882MB:
On a good note, if Maysak continues moving the way it is, Yap will not be on the dirty side of this system which is good news. But remember it could just be a slight jog. If Maysak turns more westward then it will not be good for Yap. But I'm liking that Maysak is gaining latitude. You can see the island of Yap on the left side of this loop below.



At least for Weno Island, where the Chuuk International Airport is located, they typhoon seems to have caused minimal damage. Since Chuuk is part of the Federated States of Micronesia and has a compact with the US, the NWS provides weather forecasting for the FSM. The Chuuk airport station is still up and reporting. It looks like the worst was at 1550 UTC March 29, with sustained winds of 30 mph and gusts to 39 mph. A news story says the NWS in what I assume is Guam (the story doesn't make this clear) wasn't able to reach Chuuk by phone yesterday afternoon but it looks like the lines must be up now. The Pohnpei NWS Office, which I assume is in the city center, away from the airport, never reported winds higher than 5 mph and light rain. At least for the capital of Chuuk, it looks like Maysak wasn't too bad.
It may have already been said and if so I apologize, but the description of the 'cut off low' and high pressure ridge as root cause of the Chilean torrential rains is extremely reminiscent of the Calgary floods in June 2013.
Argentina's Esperanza Base is really not Antarctica. Its the very extreme northern tip of a very long peninsula as it reaches north towards South America. Why are there no long term bases on the Antarctica Continent instread of this ocean protected outreach? Because its just too dam COLD!
FYI, the 17.5°C measured at the Argentina's Esperanza Base is close to the temperature measured by a Vaisala Weather Transmitter WXT520, which is located on a permanent GPS station (ID = FONP) not far from the base (~ 2m above the surface). The temperature record by the WXT520 at 2015-03-24T04:30:00.000 was 18.7C. The wind speed measured by the WXT520 at the same time was 9.9 m/s, which makes the temperature value more believable because the WXT520 shield is not aspirated. Must of been a katabatic wind coming off the ice. Temps jumped about 25C in a 24 hour period.