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2nd Strongest Storm in Arabian Sea History: Extraordinary Chapala Hits 155 mph

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:14 PM GMT on October 30, 2015

Tropical Cyclone Chapala took advantage of the the warmest waters ever recorded in the Arabian Sea at this time of year to put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification overnight. Chapala topped out for the time being as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds (1-minute average) at 2 am EDT Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The India Meteorology Department (IMD), which has official responsibility for tropical cyclone warnings in the North Indian Ocean, put Chapala's intensity at 130 mph winds (3-minute average) with a central pressure of 942 mb at 8 am EDT Friday. This made Chapala the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cylcone Gonu of 2007, the only Category 5 storm ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Gonu peaked at 165 mph winds (JTWC) or 146 mph (IMD) with a 920 mb pressure. The North Indian Ocean as a whole has seen five Category 5 storms in recorded history (with four of them occurring in the Bay of Bengal), so Chapala is the sixth strongest tropical cyclone ever observed in the North Indian Ocean.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Chapala as seen by the MODIS instrument at 09:10 UTC October 30, 2015. At the time, Chapala was at peak strength with 155 mph winds. Note the large cloud of pollution at the right of the image over India. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Chapala performed its remarkable rapid intensification cycle over the warmest waters ever observed for this time of year over the Arabian Sea, as depicted in the September 2015 global climate summary from NOAA/NCEI.

Strong Arabian Sea tropical cyclones are uncommon
According to NOAA's Historical Hurricanes tool, there have only been six major Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones recorded in the Arabian Sea (though accurate satellite records go back to just 1990.) The Arabian Sea doesn't get many tropical cyclones since it is small; furthermore, the Southwest Monsoon keeps the tropical cyclone season short, with a short season that lasts from May to early June before the monsoon arrives, then another short season in late October through November after the monsoon has departed. Strong Arabian Sea storms are rare due to high wind shear and copious dry air from the deserts of the Middle East, with just two Category 4 or 5 storms ever recorded--Gonu in 2007 and Phet in 2010. Both cyclones hit Oman after weakening below Category 4 strength. There are no recorded tropical storms to have hit Yemen, though the nation has been hit by two tropical depressions--Tropical Depression Keila in 2011, and Tropical Depression Three in 2008.

Forecast for Chapala
Recent satellite images show that Chapala degraded slightly in organization late Friday morning, and JTWC reduced the storm's estimated intensity to 150 mph winds as of 8 am EDT. However, the storm still has low wind shear, warm ocean waters near 30°C (86°F) that extend to great depth and favorable upper-level outflow. These conditions may allow the storm to intensify into a Category 5 storm by Saturday, as predicted by JTWC. Thereafter, weakening is likely as the storm encounters higher wind shear, lower oceanic heat content, and interaction with land. Chapala is likely to make landfall on Monday in a sparsely populated area in Yemen just west of the border with Oman. Hopefully, this will limit the impact on the people of Yemen, who are suffering food shortages due to war and drought. According to an October 30 article from Reuters, ten of Yemen's 22 governorates were assessed as being in an emergency food situation in June, one step below famine on a five-point scale. The assessment has not been updated since then, partly because experts have not managed to get sufficient access to survey the situation. About a third of the country's population, or 7.6 million people urgently require food aid, the The U.N. World Food Programme said (thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for alerting us to this article.)


Figure 3. The 5-day rainfall forecast from the 2 am EDT Friday, October 30, 2015 run of the HWRF model called for some truly stunning rainfall amounts in the parched desert region near the Yemen/Oman border: over two feet! Image credit: NOAA/EMC.


Figure 4. Average annual rainfall in Yemen. Image credit: CIA, via Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection, University of Texas at Austin.

Catastrophic flooding possible with Chapala’s arrival
The latest forecasts take Chapala into the east coast of Yemen as a hurricane, and on into Saudi Arabia as a weakening tropical depression. Apart from any wind damage, this track will bring huge downpours to eastern Yemen and western Oman, where almost any amount of rainfall is an event worth noting. As shown in Figure 4, the annual average rainfall in Yemen is less than 2” along the immediate coast and less than 5” inland, except along higher terrain, where it can approach 10”. Local totals from Chapala could easily exceed 10”, with the latest run of the HWRF model predicting totals over 24" in some coastal mountainous regions. Southern Yemen was hard-hit by Tropical Depression Three of 2008, which came on the heels of heavy rains from another storm, and resulted in disastrous flooding in Yemen. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, that storm killed 90 people and did $400 million in damage, making it the second worst natural disaster in Yemen's history, behind a June 13, 1996 flood (thanks go to wunderground member TropicalAnalystwx13 for alerting us to this fact.) According to a report from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the 2008 cyclone dropped an average rainfall of 91 mm (3.58”) over an area of 2 million hectares (7722 square miles, or about the size of New Jersey). Losses totaled more than 6% of Yemen’s GDP, which would be the equivalent of a $1 trillion storm in the US. Although the 2008 Yemen cyclone arrived in the wake of several days of preceding rainfall, Chapala is a much stronger cyclone.

As Cyclone Gonu approached Oman back in 2007, guest blogger Margie Kieper provided this compelling description of how a storm like Chapala might affect this region.

"Imagine that you live directly on the Gulf, but in a place where it hardly ever rains, and where a hurricane has never hit, for at least a generation--for more than sixty years. Your community and many like yours are situated not only directly on the water, but near or in large dry riverbeds on the coastal plain, which is a narrow strip of sandy shoreline that is the dropoff for the three-thousand-foot mountain range behind it. Even many of the roads up into the mountains are in these dry riverbeds, which course through deep canyons as they rise into the heights. You don't have any idea what it might mean to experience winds of over 100 miles per hour, whipping up sand, and torrential rain against these mountains that can turn the riverbeds into conduits for dangerous flash floods. And you don't have any idea what storm surge is, and can't conceive of wind-driven high waves that could break against the shoreline and leave nothing behind.”

Air pollution blamed for an increase in strength of Arabian Sea tropical cyclones
Arabian Sea tropical cyclones during the pre-monsoon period in May and June have become stronger over the past 30 years owing to a reduction in vertical wind shear brought about by dimming of sunlight from air pollution particles primarily emitted in India, said Evan et al. in a 2011 paper published in the journal Nature. However, the study did not address how post-monsoon tropical cyclones in October and November, like Tropical Cyclone Chapala, might be impacted by air pollution.

Severe flash flooding in Austin/San Antonio area
A very dangerous situation was rapidly unfolding on Friday morning in and near the Hill Country of Texas, where surface low pressure was focusing repeated rounds of intense thunderstorms drawing on extremely high atmospheric moisture. At Austin's Bergstrom International Airport, where the tarmac was closed due to high water, 5.76" of rain was received in just one hour. Several CoCoRaHS stations have reported more than 10". Many roads are swamped, and high-water rescues are under way, with several counties under NWS Flash Flood Emergency status. We'll have more on this event in an upcoming post.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update on Chapala Dr. Jeff Masters.
Rainfall rates of over 5" an hour have been reported in the Onion Creek area of Austin. According to the LCRA rain gauges along Onion Creek, 10.81" of rain has been recorded in the last 2 hours. Gives true meaning to "frog strangling". The forecast does get a bit, but not by much. New rains are developing S & W of the Austin area. On the bright side, lake Travis should continue to rise.
What Mr. Doran has been suggesting is covered under CO2Science on the net. From a real study of Felix and can be viewed under: Hurricanes And Oceanic Carbon Sequestration: Another Negative Feedback Process To Slow Global Warming. Paper seems to suggest things other than what Mr. Doran is saying. Only my take. Hopefully some of our science experts here can shed a little more on what this study showed.
Quoting 2. MrNatural:

Rainfall rates of over 5" an hour have been reported in the Onion Creek area of Austin. According to the LCRA rain gauges along Onion Creek, 10.81" of rain has been recorded in the last 2 hours. Gives true meaning to "frog strangling". The forecast does get a bit, but not by much. New rains are developing S & W of the Austin area. On the bright side, lake Travis should continue to rise.


Onion Creek just broke the record of 1998 with 25.4 feet and still rising.
Anyone knows the population where Chapala is forecast to hit?
Austin Rainfall Totals:
Link
Quoting 5. SouthFLwxfreak101:

Anyone knows the population where Chapala is forecast to hit?


low, however there is a large city (Al Mukalla) within the cone and if Chapala tracks further to the south and west it'd put them in serious danger.

all the coastal villages seem to sit at the openings of wide canyons which will flood.
Quoting 4. DavidHOUTX:



Onion Creek just broke the record of 1998 with 25.4 feet and still rising.


The wording at 25 feet only says it's a 25 year event.

"Major flooding is near the USGS survey 1:25 year level. Homes in a mobile home park downstream above William Cannon Drive in Austin will flood. Roads and bridges are severely flooded and very dangerous from the headwaters to the Colorado River."

Quoting 6. capeflorida:

Austin Rainfall Totals:
Link

These measurement sites are from the LCRA gauges through out central Texas. Yes, they are accurate.
Quoting 6. capeflorida:

Austin Rainfall Totals:
Link
Onion Creek at Hwy 183, Austin=14.25" in 24hrs. A (Expletive deleted) lot of rain.

Wonder what the 1000-yr flood would be at the gage for Onion Creek near Driftwood?
One can easily deduce the Global inference that the increase in Global WV , is having serious Global effects.

New Orleans/Slidell NWS disco

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 322 am CDT Friday Oct 30 2015/

Discussion...
generally only minor tweaks made to the forecast with this
package as overall forecast reasoning remains the same. One last
day of quiet weather before active weather takes hold of the
region for the weekend.

Upper trough digging into Desert Southwest is clearly evident in
satellite imagery with first indication of approaching frontal
system will be increasing clouds today. This trough will be the
driver of local weather next several days. First indication of
approaching system will be increasing cloud cover from the west
today as moisture plume progresses eastward ahead of the trough.
Column will also gain moisture as low level winds become
southeasterly bringing warmer and more humid air into the region
from the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitable water values should recover to around an
inch by this afternoon and are expected to be in excess of 2
inches by Saturday afternoon as the front approaches the area.

Models have been very consistent showing the bulk of upper level
energy lifting northeastward Saturday afternoon while the
southern stream energy lags behind. This will cause the front to
elongate and lose some of its forward push. It will thus move
through the area slowly over the course of the weekend. As
previously mentioned... precipitable water values are forecast to be more than
twice what we typically expect this time of year...so efficient
rainfall rates can be expected with the stronger convective
storms. This is in contrast to last weekend/S system which saw
primarily steady stratiform precipitation. Storm total rainfall is
generally forecast in the 2 to 4 inch range...but local amounts
can certainly be higher.
Also important to note that the ground is
not as dry as it was before last weekend/S rain...especially
across areas generally west of the I-55 corridor where most places
received 6 to 10 inches of rain. Between the higher ground moisture
and the potential for high rainfall rates...there is at least some
potential for localized flash flooding and wpc continues to
indicate a slight risk of excessive rainfall across nearly the
entire area Saturday and Saturday night. May need to consider a
Flash Flood Watch with future forecast updates.

There will also be a marginal risk of severe weather primarily
during the daytime hours Saturday. Instability will be a
significant limiting factor as lapse rates should be nearly
moist adiabatic by the afternoon as precipitation spreads across
the area. Won't get much help from diurnal heating either owing to
the forecast thick cloud cover. However...a low level jet streak
is forecast to develop on the southeast side of a surface low
over northern Louisiana resulting in some fairly decent right
turning hodographs across the area. Shear will be greatest across
the northwestern portion of the area and will peak during the
morning hours when both directional and speed shear are maximized.
0-3km storm relative helicity is forecast to be near or in excess
of 500 m2/s2 around 12z...decreasing to 250 to 300 m2/s2 by 18z as
the jet streak begins to move away from the area. Farther to the
east and southeast values peak around 300 m2/s2 and decrease to
less than 200 m2/s2 by 18z. Shear decreases more significantly by
00z as low level winds are forecast to weaken and veer...and this
should end the marginal severe threat. Given the high shear
environment...can/T rule out one or two storms becoming severe.
The primary threats will be isolated tornadoes and damaging wind
gusts.

The slow progression of the front through the area will continue
on Sunday. Expect continued widespread showers and thunderstorms...
though the heavier rain threat will have shifted eastward toward
the Mississippi coast. Precipitation should finally begin to taper
off from west to east Sunday night and into Monday morning with
high pressure building in behind it. Expect only weak cold air
advection behind the front...and temperatures will remain near to
above normal even after the frontal passage. Drier air will help
make the temperatures feel more pleasant.

Surface ridge will shift eastward by midweek with onshore flow
redeveloping across the area. Isolated showers may move through
the area on Wednesday as a weak boundary moves northward through
the area. The onshore flow combined with a strengthening
middle/upper level ridge will result in a warming trend through the
end of the week.


Quoting 8. SouthCentralTx:




Holy Moses! A ~24 ft water rise in an hour or two? That's something else..
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 1211 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 1207 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1205 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1157 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1148 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 1135 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 1129 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1040 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
TORNADO WARNING     AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1032 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
Thanks for the Update Gentlemen...
Chapala:



Looks like it may be starting an EWRC, but with 2-3 days of favourable conditions, it could re-strengthen once it's complete.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters and Mr Henson! Strong storms all over the place!

Currently at my location 66 degrees and another nice Soo Cal Autumn day.

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 30 Oct 10:22 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 30 Oct 10:10 am PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
30 Oct 10:10 am PDT 66 14 13 NE 10G20 OK
It's an absolute mess here in Austin. The famous Salt Lick BBQ in Driftwood is believed to be underwater. The bottom floor of Austin-Bergstrom International Airport is flooded, and the airport itself is still closed. I actually had to walk to the UT campus for a job interview (wearing my suit), and the water was almost up to my knee. :P
Wow, Austin storms just keep back building.

Update: Scott Fisher at Fox 7 Austin is reporting that Onion Creek at Driftwood is already up to 32 feet
Gobble, gobble Mr. A. I. Watson............................................ .........................................
Tweet from KVUE Austin, TX news Video: Cecilia Parker's husband sent this video before his car was swept away. He's being rescued from a tree. (20-sec vid ends with Mr. Parker saying "Love you guys.")

Add: KVUE twitter feed
Quoting 19. tampabaymatt:

Wow, Austin storms just keep back building.


Looks from that like CenTex is getting some severe, too.

Ps. (Oops. Wrong post.)
Edit: Already posted
Quoting 18. galvestonhurricane:

It's an absolute mess here in Austin. The famous Salt Lick BBQ in Driftwood is believed to be underwater. The bottom floor of Austin-Bergstrom International Airport is flooded, and the airport itself is still closed. I actually had to walk to the UT campus for a job interview (wearing my suit), and the water was almost up to my knee. :P
They'll offer you that job! lpl Please don't go driving anywhere now. Maybe there's a tallish building with a penthouse restaurant where you can hang out and watch the rain while you eat tofu salad or something.
;/
Give the guy credit for one thing...cool as a cuke.

Don't know how he ended up in that situation, but given the explosive rise of water in the area, it may have truly been unavoidable.

Quoting 21. Barefootontherocks:

Gobble, gobble Mr. A. I. Watson............................................ .........................................
Tweet from KVUE news Video: Cecilia Parker's husband sent this video before his car was swept away. He's being rescued from a tree. (20-sec vid ends with Mr. Parker saying "Love you guys.")
Storm total's

Quoting 13. LongIslandBeaches:



Holy Moses! A ~24 ft water rise in an hour or two? That's something else..


That's why I frequently mention the Texas Hill Country region from San Antonio to Austin and just to the north and west. That area is famous for flooding due to the topography and soil (or lack of soil - very rocky).
Thanks Jeff & Bob...
Quoting 18. galvestonhurricane:

It's an absolute mess here in Austin. The famous Salt Lick BBQ in Driftwood is believed to be underwater. The bottom floor of Austin-Bergstrom International Airport is flooded, and the airport itself is still closed. I actually had to walk to the UT campus for a job interview (wearing my suit), and the water was almost up to my knee. :P

Felt like a fish in a fish bowl driving this morning. Austin NWS is forecasting totals of near 18 - 20 inches of rain through tomorrow AM.
31. SLU
A bit exaggerated when saying its the 2nd strongest storm in Arabian Sea history when accurate records go back only to 1990 .... or maybe it's just me.

Thanks for the good new entry, Doc and Bob!
For those who want to see some pictures from south eastern Yemen (the province of Al Mahra and currently the most probable area of landfall for Chapala) here some promo videos from 2013, before the war hit:



With similar pictures:
Al-Mahrah governorate - Yemen- English part 2
Al-Mahrah governorate - Yemen- English part 3

Here a beautiful slide show from central Yemen with the cities of Shibam (UNESCO World Heritage Site) and Mukalla, the latter at the coast and quite big.



Have to confess, Yemen had been a dreamland destination (great video in this link!) for me at least for some decades, after I've read a story about it with stunning photos of the historical city of Sana'a in the western part in a German version of National Geographic when I was a teenager. I'm so sorry that this country as so many others became a zone of war, terror and suffering in the last years. I really hope the cyclone won't be too bad for those folks and the unique cultural heritage down there.


Click to enlarge. More maps.
Quoting 31. SLU:

A bit exaggerated when saying its the 2nd strongest storm in Arabian Sea history when accurate records go back only to 1990 .... or maybe it's just me.




It's you, the blog says "on record", not in the history of the planet.
Quoting 31. SLU:

A bit exaggerated when saying its the 2nd strongest storm in Arabian Sea history when accurate records go back only to 1990 .... or maybe it's just me.


1) Regardless of the length of record, Chapala *is* the 2nd strongest storm in the Arabian Sea in that period. That's 25 years. That's still a notable record.

2) People have lived in and around and on the Arabian Sea for tens of thousands--and perhaps hundreds of thousands--of years. While the computer/satellite record is just a few decades old, oral history goes back many millennia, and the geological record goes back much further.

In short: yes, it's just you.
Quoting 31. SLU:

A bit exaggerated when saying its the 2nd strongest storm in Arabian Sea history when accurate records go back only to 1990 .... or maybe it's just me.




It is you as Maritime records and Human memory goes back 70-90 years actually. Ver batum from the ones who are still around.
Seems dat un was well assessed and retorted triple.

: P


Heres a view of Shoal Creek from my office about an hour ago in downtown Austin. All of us moved our cars to higher ground. The water markers at 12 feet were submerged before this so I'm guessing about a 15-16 foot rise. Thankfully it has started receding before coming into the buildings.
Ps. I see Calvin's pic is showing now. I was trying to repost it.
Quoting 31. SLU:

A bit exaggerated when saying its the 2nd strongest storm in Arabian Sea history when accurate records go back only to 1990 .... or maybe it's just me.


RE: The headline on this blog, "2nd Strongest Storm in Arabian Sea History: Extraordinary Chapala Hits 155 mph"
A qualification like "recorded history" would be factual. Not saying you did, just that many people read only headlines and not an article's text. So, no. It's not just you. The headline is sensationalistic and misleading.
41. SLU
Quoting 34. Neapolitan:

1) Regardless of the length of record, Chapala *is* the 2nd strongest storm in the Arabian Sea in that period. That's 25 years. That's still a notable record.

2) People have lived in and around and on the Arabian Sea for tens of thousands--and perhaps hundreds of thousands--of years. While the computer/satellite record is just a few decades old, oral history goes back many millennia, and the geological record goes back much further.

In short: yes, it's just you.


lol. oral history. smh. How could any one have "oral history" of the exact maximum intensity of a storm without proper measuring equipment or an "oral history" of a storm in the middle of the ocean if no ship ran into it.
42. SLU
Quoting 33. MahFL:



It's you, the blog says "on record", not in the history of the planet.


Or it's you who can't read the headlines:

"2nd Strongest Storm in Arabian Sea History: Extraordinary Chapala Hits 155 mph"
regardless having this many intense hurricanes worldwide is the sign of the times. warm water world wide
44. SLU
Quoting 40. Barefootontherocks:

RE: The headline on this blog, "2nd Strongest Storm in Arabian Sea History: Extraordinary Chapala Hits 155 mph"
A qualification like "recorded history" would be factual. Not saying you did, just that many people read only headlines and not an article's text. So, no. It's not just you. The headline is sensationalistic and misleading.


Thanks for your objective reasoning.
Quoting 27. Patrap:

Storm total's



Gotta wonder how bad things are in San Marcos from looking at that.
46. SLU
Quoting 35. Patrap:



It is you as Maritime records and Human memory goes back 70-90 years actually. Ver batum from the ones who are still around.


If maritime records go back 70-90 years, how comes we have a record of non-landfalling Atlantic hurricanes from 1851 to 1944, before hurricane hunter aircraft, satellite photos, radar etc??????
Quoting 45. TimSoCal:


Gotta wonder how bad things are in San Marcos from looking at that.
NWS has flash flood warnings out for San Marcos and elsewhere, plus some flood warnings for TX creeks and rivers, and other flood and flash flood watches.

Link to NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO
Your method and thinking on this is flawed...

Official and reality often conflict, that's why the author here worded it that way.

You seek absolutes, good luck on yer odyessy.




Quoting 19. tampabaymatt:

Wow, Austin storms just keep back building.




That, Is ALOT OF DARN RAIN

(Also praise for Yemen and Oman for champi!
Quoting 37. calkevin77:



Heres a view of Shoal Creek from my office about an hour ago in downtown Austin. All of us moved our cars to higher ground. The water markers at 12 feet were submerged before this so I'm guessing about a 15-16 foot rise. Thankfully it has started receding before coming into the buildings.


Situation is about to get a
lot worse in San Marcos and in a number of COA neighborhoods.
Quoting 46. SLU:



If maritime records go back 70-90 years, how comes we have a record of non-landfalling Atlantic hurricanes from 1851 to 1944, before hurricane hunter aircraft, satellite photos, radar etc??????



Maritime records go back Hundreds of years, I was referring in part to the Human recall..


Feel free to cover the other retorts you received as well.

I suffer from PTSD and TBI so my recall and typing don't always relate my thoughts precisely.

Thanx
Quoting 47. Barefootontherocks:

NWS has flash flood warnings out for San Marcos and elsewhere, plus some flood warnings for TX creeks and rivers, and other flood and flash flood watches.

Link to NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO


I have been aghast at this 4 month drought... if it hadn't happened and all creeks and aquifers were full,.........we'd be looking at thousands drowned
Quoting 3. DeepSeaRising:

What Mr. Doran has been suggesting is covered under CO2Science on the net. From a real study of Felix and can be viewed under: Hurricanes And Oceanic Carbon Sequestration: Another Negative Feedback Process To Slow Global Warming. Paper seems to suggest things other than what Mr. Doran is saying. Only my take. Hopefully some of our science experts here can shed a little more on what this study showed.


The paper is about the carbon cycle. What I am saying is if the oceans lose CO2 to a storm it goes into the clouds and then given the electrical complexity I am describing impacts their behaviors. Ripped right out of current conditions the flooding in Austin, if you look the past day in the EPAC some thunderstorms which would decarbonate the oceans with the surface lows and winds of those storms and then the sub tropical jet takes those elevated levels of carbonation to Texas, and at the same time regionally there is a displacement current flowing regionally that makes the potential differences better for lightning in Texas, and with the moisture in the sub tropical jet (which yes falls under a more traditional analysis) providing for a COMPLEXITY, you get this extreme rain:
Current lightning in Americas
Quoting 40. Barefootontherocks:

RE: The headline on this blog, "2nd Strongest Storm in Arabian Sea History: Extraordinary Chapala Hits 155 mph"
A qualification like "recorded history" would be factual. Not saying you did, just that many people read only headlines and not an article's text. So, no. It's not just you. The headline is sensationalistic and misleading.
When a person can misinterpret a truth as "sensationalistic and misleading", maybe it's time for him or her to take a break? Over the years, a lot of people here have whinged about the disclaimer "recorded" not being tagged onto every single mention of every single event. But as has been so often stated, most adults realize that the term "recorded" is implied. For instance, were the Royals to hit 90 home runs tonight and tomorrow's headlines were to loudly announce, "Kansas City blasts most home runs in baseball history", only the most special snowflakes among us would complain that the headline was "sensationalistic and misleading" since we don't know whether a baseball team 150 years ago may have hit even more.

In short, the headline is only "misleading" to those who wish it to be.
The rain totals in Austin are truly amazing. My prayers go out to all of those affected by this.

Some of the highest reported rain totals since midnight include:
•14.26 inches near Onion Creek at U.S. 183
•13.03 inches at Onion Creek near Buda
•9.08 inches south of Dripping Springs near Driftwood
•8.12 inches near Barton Creek at Capital of Texas Highway (Loop 360)
•7.33 inches in Driftwood
•7.31 inches in Manchaca
•6.8 inches near Walnut Creek at Webberville Road
•6.22 inches west of Lakeway
Quoting 54. Neapolitan:

When a person can misinterpret a truth as "sensationalistic and misleading", maybe it's time for him or her to take a break? Over the years, a lot of people here have whinged about the disclaimer "recorded" not being tagged onto every single mention of every single event. But as has been so often stated, most adults realize that the term "recorded" is implied. For instance, were the Royals to hit 90 home runs tonight and tomorrow's headlines were to loudly announce, "Kansas City blasts most home runs in baseball history", only the most special snowflakes among us would complain that the headline was "sensationalistic and misleading" since we don't know whether a baseball team 150 years ago may have hit even more.

In short, the headline is only "misleading" to those who wish it to be.


"While we spent years trying to detect the real prejudices hidden behind the appearance of objective statements, do we now have to reveal the real objective and incontrovertible facts hidden behind the illusion of prejudices? And yet entire Ph.D. programs are still running to make sure that good American kids are learning the hard way that facts are made up, that there is no such thing as natural, unmediated, unbiased access to truth, that we are always prisoners of language, that we always speak from a particular standpoint, and so on, while dangerous extremists are using the very same argument of social construction to destroy hard-won evidence that could save our lives." Link

Unfortunately, the answer is yes.
Quoting 54. Neapolitan:

When a person can misinterpret a truth as "sensationalistic and misleading", maybe it's time for him or her to take a break? Over the years, a lot of people here have whinged about the disclaimer "recorded" not being tagged onto every single mention of every single event. But as has been so often stated, most adults realize that the term "recorded" is implied. For instance, were the Royals to hit 90 home runs tonight and tomorrow's headlines were to loudly announce, "Kansas City blasts most home runs in baseball history", only the most special snowflakes among us would complain that the headline was "sensationalistic and misleading" since we don't know whether a baseball team 150 years ago may have hit even more.

In short, the headline is only "misleading" to those who wish it to be.
Neo, Also misleading to the brain of anyone, even to A.I. Watson, if it doesn't read the story. I'm not saying the wording was deliberate and intended to mislead. I do not have that knowledge. Let me explain what the headline means in English. The headline phrase, "in history" means ever in Earth's (Arabian Sea's) history going back long before humans showed up. And the phrase "in recorded history" means what man has kept track of. Two different things "."
:)
Have a nice day, as they say in L.A.

My absolute favorite is Absolute Zero.

Ps. 1:58 pm
You two are, to use an old-fashined and non-derogatory phrase, "too much," Neo and Naga (and your plussers!)
LPL. Headline. Body of article. Two different animals. Please excuse me now. I'm sure the blog is tiring of this semantics discussion, and there's lots of weather happening, so...
'Bye now.

Pps. Neo, your baseball argument stinks, and you're smart enough to know that. Grasping at straws or just trying to beat me down? I don't care which, you cannot control my mind. LPL Thank God and Greyhound!
Quoting 41. SLU:
lol. oral history. smh. How could any one have "oral history" of the exact maximum intensity of a storm without proper measuring equipment or an "oral history" of a storm in the middle of the ocean if no ship ran into it.

If Chapala will make a catastrophic landfall in Yemen or Oman, we'll soon know (at least if it's possible to get some coverage out of the war-stricken country of Yemen). There are a lot of historic towns/buildings around (see post 32) which are made of adobe. Some months ago we watched flash floods in Morocco which destroyed walls of adobe which were some hundreds years old and did survive until now. So we know that extraordinary violent floods like this didn't happen very often in the past.
Quoting 48. Patrap:

Your method and thinking on this is flawed...

Official and reality often conflict, that's why the author here worded it that way.

You seek absolutes, good luck on yer odyessy.





Some folks are only able to function in black and white.
Not every day you have the NWS use the word "historical"in a weather statement. And to think as of yesterday we were expecting 2-3 inches cumulative for Friday and Sat.


Flash Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1045 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THROUGH 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
HISTORICAL FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
TRAINING CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND
TOLL ROAD 130 ALONG A LINE ORIENTED FROM SAN MARCOS AND TAYLOR.
FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
BEXAR...COMAL...HAYS...AND TRAVIS COUNTIES. ISOLATED STORM EVENT
TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
SAME AREAS AND THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.
Tweet from Yemen (not good if this is true!):
@ibromodi 13 Min.Vor 13 Minuten
In my country #yemen most of people do not know anything about #Chapala because of the civil war and all yemeni news focus only on war news

Neighbour Oman is probably more prepared:

Oman weather: Forecasters warn of torrential rains due to tropical cyclone
October 30, 2015 | 7:35 PM, by Times News Service

Oman weather: Sultan's Armed Forces, ROP, PACDA on standby as tropical cyclone approaches
October 30, 2015 | 5:12 PM, by Times News Service
Quoting 46. SLU:



If maritime records go back 70-90 years, how comes we have a record of non-landfalling Atlantic hurricanes from 1851 to 1944, before hurricane hunter aircraft, satellite photos, radar etc??????


Columbus sailed the ocean in 1492. Others have since followed. Each noted the weather and the ship's position throughout their voyages. As an aside, Columbus may not have been the first to sail across the Atlantic.
Downtown Austin and the UT campus are receiving a much needed break from this morning's biblical amount of rain. Hoping it continues.
Hurricane alert in Arabian language. Quite rare ;-)


@alhadramyalyoum 4 Min.Vor 4 Minuten
#Chapala إعصار نادر وتاريخي محتمل يضرب شرق اليمن الاثنين 2 نوفمبر 2015 قد يجلب الفيضانات شرق
(Rare and potential historic #Chapala Hurricane hits eastern Yemen Monday, November 2nd, 2015. May bring floods to the East)
It seems the incredibly obvious signs of a warming world have been ticking off some people who simply wish it wasn't real. Not trying to be jerk, but let's be real, it's true.

Barb, did you notice they spelled "historic" incorrectly??? :)




Quoting 64. barbamz:

Hurricane alert in Arabian language. Quite rare ;-)


@alhadramyalyoum 4 Min.Vor 4 Minuten
#Chapala إعصار نادر وتاريخي محتمل يضرب شرق اليمن الاثنين 2 نوفمبر 2015 قد يجلب الفيضانات شرق
(Rare and potential historic #Chapala Hurricane hits eastern Yemen Monday, November 2nd, 2015. May bring floods to the East)




Quoting 66. Grothar:

Barb, did you notice they spelled "historic" incorrectly??? :)

Hehe, Gro. When I've spent four years of my childhood in (nowadays poor) Libya 1964-1968 I only got lessons in Arabian language to count to ten and - no lie! - to sing the German Christmas song "O Tannenbaum" (English: "O Christmas Tree") in Arabian. Last year during a book fair I've performed it to a guy from Algeria, and he was able to understand, lol!
Quoting 67. barbamz:


Hehe, Gro. When I've spent four years of my childhood in (nowadays poor) Libya 1964-1968 I only got lessons in Arabian language to count to ten and - no lie! - to sing the German Christmas song "O Tannenbaum" (English: "O Christmas Tree") in Arabian. Last year during a book fair I've performed it to a guy from Algeria, and he was able to understand, lol!


I still sing the Christmas songs in German or Norwegian. They never sounded right in English.




The low helping to pull moisture across Mexico into Texas is slowly pushing into New Mexico now: the training effect from the trajectory is really driving up the rain totals in Austin and parts.

And it looks like the plume of moisture headed in from the NW Conus might get pulled into the New Mexico/Texas area as well..............This rain/flooding event (and the aftermath) may last well into Sunday and beyond.

Video from Oman showing some white clothed males. But they take the cyclone serious for sure.
Quoting 54. Neapolitan:

When a person can misinterpret a truth as "sensationalistic and misleading", maybe it's time for him or her to take a break? Over the years, a lot of people here have whinged about the disclaimer "recorded" not being tagged onto every single mention of every single event. But as has been so often stated, most adults realize that the term "recorded" is implied. For instance, were the Royals to hit 90 home runs tonight and tomorrow's headlines were to loudly announce, "Kansas City blasts most home runs in baseball history", only the most special snowflakes among us would complain that the headline was "sensationalistic and misleading" since we don't know whether a baseball team 150 years ago may have hit even more.

In short, the headline is only "misleading" to those who wish it to be.


Unfortunately, I am limited in the number of characters I can put into the title. "Recorded" didn't fit, so I left it to the reader to read the text below the title, where I use "recorded" several times.

Dr. M.
Quoting 16. Envoirment:

Chapala:



Looks like it may be starting an EWRC, but with 2-3 days with favourable conditions, it could re-strengthen once it's complete.


Looks like cat 5 earlier today. I think won't strengthening more after the EWRC. Upwelling could be a problem, and dry air from west.
Quoting 72. JeffMasters:



Unfortunately, I am limited in the number of characters I can put into the title. "Recorded" didn't fit, so I left it to the reader to read the text below the title, where I use "recorded" several times.

Dr. M.


Thanks Dr. M. This is a great example of how to get a point across in a professional, courteous manner. Unfortunately, some folks on here think it's necessary to be condescending and rude when they disagree with another's point. You provide a great example that these folks can hopefully learn from.
No limit in the number of characters on this blog though ;)
Quoting 74. tampabaymatt:



Thanks Dr. M. This is a great example of how to get a point across in a professional, courteous manner. Unfortunately, some folks on here think it's necessary to be condescending and rude when they disagree with another's point. You provide a great example that these folks can hopefully learn from.


I find the same small minded critique of Dr. Master's and Bob Henson's posts as "sensationalist" and "misleading" by the same few people every time they do not want to accept the reality of extreme events as occurring to be quite condescending and rude as well.
Quoting 76. Naga5000:



I find the same small minded critique of Dr. Master's and Bob Henson's posts as "sensationalist" and "misleading" by the same few people every time they do not want to accept the reality of extreme events as occurring to be quite condescending and rude as well.


Sigh....well, I guess not.
Edited sarcasm.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 5h5 hours ago
According to the CFSv2, #ElNino is now peaking in the Ocean and will weaken through 2016.
I copied this bit out of the blog heading:-

"Imagine that you live directly on the Gulf, but in a place where it hardly ever rains, and where a hurricane has never hit, for at least a generation--for more than sixty years. Your community and many like yours are situated not only directly on the water, but near or in large dry riverbeds on the coastal plain, which is a narrow strip of sandy shoreline that is the drop off for the three-thousand-foot mountain range behind it."

I've been thinking about this and the other information in the blog heading for an hour or so and All I can come up with as a way to alert the population to what might and probably will occur, is to stream a few videos on TV of cyclones hitting shores in various places around the world. This should make it crystal clear what might be involved.
Having said that I am assuming that there are TVs in the area and not everything is blacked out by the war efforts.

I suppose a strong cyclone land fall in a war zone is not that common an occurrence!

Lets hope that the storms landfall is in an uninhabited region and the rains are less ferocious than predicted, plus of course people get out of the way of flash floods in the dry river beds.
Quoting 55. tampabaymatt:

The rain totals in Austin are truly amazing. My prayers go out to all of those affected by this.

Some of the highest reported rain totals since midnight include:
•14.26 inches near Onion Creek at U.S. 183
•13.03 inches at Onion Creek near Buda
•9.08 inches south of Dripping Springs near Driftwood
•8.12 inches near Barton Creek at Capital of Texas Highway (Loop 360)
•7.33 inches in Driftwood
•7.31 inches in Manchaca
•6.8 inches near Walnut Creek at Webberville Road
•6.22 inches west of Lakeway



The surprising part is apparently not that unusual for Texas:

Rainfall (inches)
Greatest in a 24-hour period 29.05 Albany (105 miles W of Ft. Worth) Aug. 4, 1978
Greatest in one month 35.70 Alvin (20 miles SE of Houston) July 1979
Greatest in one year 109.38 Clarksville (105 miles NE of Dallas) 1873
Perhaps the drought of hurricanes striking the US has lulled us a bit.
Quoting 82. canyonboy:


The surprising part is apparently not that unusual for Texas:

Rainfall (inches)
Greatest in a 24-hour period 29.05 Albany (105 miles W of Ft. Worth) Aug. 4, 1978
Greatest in one month 35.70 Alvin (20 miles SE of Houston) July 1979
Greatest in one year 109.38 Clarksville (105 miles NE of Dallas) 1873
Perhaps the drought of hurricanes striking the US has lulled us a bit.

The Alvin Texas record is actually 43" in a 24 hour period from July 24 to 25, 1979.

Source.

Michael L@MichaelRLowry 3 Std.Vor 3 Stunden
Evidence of dust from desert of Arabian Peninsula getting drawn into #Chapala. May help to weaken core.

Looks plausible. Good for Yemen if he's right, we'll see! Good night from Germany for today.
Austin is a muddy mess. The rains are done for the time being but additional rains and flooding is expected. Currently I am at the animal shelter downtown trying to help out. Seems it was flooded and all the animals needed to be moved to the office bldg. quite a mess. I ask all bloggers from central Texas to find some time or way to help out. There's enough of you on the blog and plenty of work to do. Unfortunately my summer predictions of dangerous rains and flooding have come to bear fruit. There are times I wish I was wrong but this is not one of them. Seems this El Niño is following the script. Late starting October rains with flooding.
Remember during Haiyan, the people of Tacloban and other locations near landfall had no idea surge was a big threat. And they're ground zero for typhoons in the world. Can only imagine how little information is getting out in Yemen and how little they understand about the risk. Luckily, the eye and CDO will be relatively small, but that projected rainfall of over 20 inches where this lands is greatly troubling. Hopefully this will Patricia and land in a non-populated area.
Everyone have a Safe Weather Weekend and particularly our folks in the Texas region. Hoping for the best with the flooding as usual as it looks like a wet weekend for several parts of the US;
Forecast valid Saturday 00Z

Quoting 65. Jedkins01:

It seems the incredibly obvious signs of a warming world have been ticking off some people who simply wish it wasn't real. Not trying to be jerk, but let's be real, it's true.




Maybe the scientists know what they are talking about.

There are very seldom some book tips about meteorology or climate science here on the blog, but I can highly recommend the Princeton University Press Primers in Climate they come right now with a discount and are easily readable for people with an interest in these topics. The mathematics isn't overwhelming and very rudimentary in contrast to the advanced textbooks (and from my visits to my University library, I have experience with them, oh man they hurt). I think a book is a far better vehicle for an introduction into these topics than anything available on the Internet, but that is just me. I read the primer about the The Sun's Influence on Climate and I can highly recommend it.
Quoting 86. DeepSeaRising:
Hopefully this will Patricia and land in a non-populated area.

Yeah, right. Hope there will some "robbers of categories" around as well. Check out this latest BBC article on Patricia, lol.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM CHAPALA (ARB04-2015)
23:30 PM IST October 30 2015
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala over west central Arabian Sea moved west southwestwards with a speed of about 8 km/h during past 6 hours, and now lays centered near 13.9N 60.2E, about 1470 km west southwest of Mumbai (43003) and about 740 km east southeast of Salalah (41316) (Oman).

It would move nearly westwards, intensify further during next 12 hours and cross Yemen and adjoining Oman coast between 15.0N and 16.0N at around midnight on November 2nd. Due to entrainment of dry air and lower ocean thermal energy over Gulf of Aden and adjoining west central Arabian Sea off Yemen and Oman coast, there is possibility of slight weakening of the system before the landfall and it would cross Yemen and adjoining Oman coasts as a very severe cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T6.0 and convective cloud shows eye pattern with well-defined eye of diameter about 15 km and eye temperature is -23C. Associated low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convective clouds over area between 11.5N to 16.5N and 57.0E to 63.0E. Lowest cloud top temperature is -77C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 115 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 940 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 13.7N 58.9E - 120-125 knots (Super Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 13.7N 57.3E - 115-120 knots (Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 14.2N 54.5E - 90-95 knots (Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 15.2N 51.3E - 75-80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
===============
The eye is seen both in infrared and visible imagery. The sea surface temperature around the system center is about 30C and it decreases towards the west. The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2 around the system center and it decreases to the west of 60.0E. The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots around the system center. It is 10-20 knots to the west and west northwest. The low level relative vorticity has is about 250 x10-5sec-1. Upper level divergence is about 30x10-5sec-1 and low level convergence is around 30x10-5sec-1. There is favorable poleward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 16.0N. The Madden Jullian Oscillation index lies in phase 2 with amplitude greater than 2 and it would continue to remain in same phase with similar amplitude for next 3 days. As the system would move closer to Yemen and adjoining Oman coast, it would experience lower ocean thermal energy as well as intrusion of dry air from northwest. As a result, there is possibility of slight weakening of the system over the sea before the landfall.
Quoting 83. Greg01:


The Alvin Texas record is actually 43" in a 24 hour period from July 24 to 25, 1979.

Yeah, I thought I remembered 43 inches but I couldn't find it on the web. Thx.
everything is bigger in Texas and.....
Deep in the heart clap clap clap of Texas.

I reckon the smaller record is for midnight to midnight.
Quoting 80. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 5h5 hours ago
According to the CFSv2, #ElNino is now peaking in the Ocean and will weaken through 2016.

He brought up the corrected CFSv2 that has consistently way under shot this el nino. He and other aces aren't buying it, and they are going with the uncorrected model which calls for a Nov-Dec peak. Rest assured, all signs indicate full steam ahead.
2015 seems to be the year of the intense storms!


Uh-oh!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
140 PM PDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...BY SUNDAY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN. WARM-FRONTAL RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTH BAY BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...AND INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER TROUGH NOSES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT REGARDING EXACT TIMING AS WELL AS THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...HOWEVER EARLY ESTIMATES GIVE THE MOST RAINFALL
TO THE COASTAL RANGES....

Given the abnormally mild coastal SSTs, my guess is that rainfall amounts will be higher during the warm advection portion of the incoming system, as they were last year for the same reason. This is not quite a classic El Nino event, which isn't expected to begin anyway until the holiday season.
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONTINUED WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CORE; HOWEVER, THE OVERALL STRUCTURE REMAINS
INTACT WITH A DISTINCT 10NM EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE CYCLONE, BUT NOT YET IMPACTING THE CORE. A 301727Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, BUT ALSO SHOWS THE DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM...
TC
CHAPALA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FURTHER IMPACTS THE SYSTEM.
AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND MAKES LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL
YEMEN.
Gender bender!

Quoting 95. Grothar:



Uh-oh!


Quoting 66. Grothar:

Barb, did you notice they spelled "historic" incorrectly??? :)










Interesting that they refer to it as a hurricane rather than a cyclone.
Found a document dated 2004 so could be out of date by now which has an easy reading first-person style.    Those Texans were a tough lot.
Link

Texas records:
The all-time king of area floods took place smack during the middle of hurricane
season: the Sept. 8-10, 1921 Central Texas flood. This flood set all kinds of records, some
of which still stand. A few miles up the road from Taylor, Texas, in Thrall, an unofficial
observer measured 32 inches in 12 hours. In half a day, Thrall received more rainfall than
most states have received in a month. Still it kept raining, giving Thrall a 24-hour total of
38.2 inches. A total of 215 people perished in the 1921 flood, a rather large total for a time
when most people either had the sense not to drive into water or lacked the vehicle with
which to do so.
The 1900 Galveston hurricane killed
untold numbers of people (6,000 to 10,000) and wiped out a large portion of the city of
Galveston on 8-9 September. Calling it the most significant hurricane to strike Texas is an
understatement: the Galveston hurricane was the greatest natural disaster in the history of
the United States.

The worst drought spanned the period 1950 to 1957. Much has been written about this
drought; among the more impressive statistics from this period is Texas's statewide average
precipitation for the month of October 1952: 0.02 inches. Close on its heels is the Dust
Bowl drought of 1932-1939, which had a bigger impact in Oklahoma than the 1950s
drought but spared a large part of Texas

The hottest summer was 1936. The record highest temperature for Oklahoma (120F)
was set on July 18 in Alva and was tied once on July 19 (Altus) and twice on August 12
(Altus and Poteau). Not to miss out on the fun, Texas set its all-time record of 120F on
August 12 also (Seymour).
Hail:The worst on record was the thunderstorm that struck Dallas-Fort Worth on May 5,
1995. This was the "perfect storm" of hailstorms: a supercell, a squall line, an outdoor
festival, and sunset all came together to maximize the impact.
It started with a supercell forming out near Mineral Wells in late afternoon. It marched
east and intensified, dropping baseball-sized hail in downtown Fort Worth during their May
festival and causing numerous injuries (and one death) from people caught out in the open
being struck by hail. As the storm moved to Dallas, a squall line caught up with it and the
combined rainfall produced a flash flood just after dark. The resulting street flooding killed
another 19 persons. Overall there were 109 injuries and an estimated $2 billion dollars in
damage.
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHAVER LAKE...YOSEMITE VALLEY
101 PM PDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
TO KINGS CANYON. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FROM LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 16 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO 5000 FEET BY MONDAY EVENING WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

That'll be a good start for the season.
Quoting 60. calkevin77:

Not every day you have the NWS use the word "historical"in a weather statement. And to think as of yesterday we were expecting 2-3 inches cumulative for Friday and Sat.


Flash Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1045 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED THROUGH 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
HISTORICAL FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WHERE
TRAINING CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND
TOLL ROAD 130 ALONG A LINE ORIENTED FROM SAN MARCOS AND TAYLOR.
FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
BEXAR...COMAL...HAYS...AND TRAVIS COUNTIES. ISOLATED STORM EVENT
TOTALS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AND
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
SAME AREAS AND THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES.



My God...15-20 inches of rain.
Quoting 72. JeffMasters:



Unfortunately, I am limited in the number of characters I can put into the title. "Recorded" didn't fit, so I left it to the reader to read the text below the title, where I use "recorded" several times.

Dr. M.
Much appreciate your acknowledging the difference between "history" and "recorded history."
Quoting 95. Grothar:



Uh-oh!




Let's hope the African Wave Train isn't as strong next year as it was this year. I don't want to think what the Atlantic can produce with a strong La Nina/strong tropical waves and a +AMO.
Quoting 99. BayFog:


Interesting that they refer to it as a hurricane rather than a cyclone.


Interestingly enough, most of the media reports it as a cyclone and not a typhoon or hurricane over there. I was rather surprised myself.
Quoting 104. Envoirment:



Let's hope the African Wave Train isn't as strong next year as it was this year. I don't want to think what the Atlantic can produce with a strong La Nina/strong tropical waves and a +AMO.


I think we were quite fortunate this year. Some of those waves were impressive.
Evening all.

Coming to the end of another lovely day here in Nassau. It stayed overcast during the peak heating hours so this afternoon was sunny but cool.

Watching with interest the developments in the Arabian Sea. Since I joined the Wunderground just over 10 years ago, it seems these Arabian Sea storms have increased not only in intensity but also in frequency.

And what's THIS???

Quoting 31. SLU:

A bit exaggerated when saying its the 2nd strongest storm in Arabian Sea history when accurate records go back only to 1990 .... or maybe it's just me.


Well, it's actually a factual statement. History is only as long as the recorded data. Unfortunately we tend to interpret "in history" as "a very long time" ....
Quoting 102. 62901IL:

My God...15-20 inches of rain.
A similar event happened in October 1998
Storm Rainfall totals

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 447 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 441 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 440 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 406 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 327 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 303 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 218 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015
Severe tornado damage from this system and a shocking 1.2 trillion gallons has fallen so far in Texas according to NBC.
The area around Ibb, Yemen, averages more than 20" of rain per year. Until the 1990s, there were oak forests in that area.

Yemen's population has grown dramatically

1950 4,316,000 —
1960 5,116,000 +18.5%
1970 6,145,000 +20.1%
1980 7,945,000 +29.3%
1990 11,948,000 +50.4%
2000 17,723,000 +48.3%
2010 24,053,000 +35.7%

Orleans Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather RadioFlash Flood Watch, Coastal Flood StatementStatement as of 1:26 PM CDT on October 30, 2015

... Flash Flood Watch in effect from Saturday morning through
Sunday afternoon...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Louisiana and
southern Mississippi... including the following areas... in
southeast Louisiana... Ascension... Assumption... East Baton
Rouge... East Feliciana... Iberville... Livingston... lower
Jefferson... lower Lafourche... lower Plaquemines... lower St.
Bernard... lower Terrebonne... northern Tangipahoa... Orleans...
Pointe Coupee... southern Tangipahoa... St. Charles... St.
Helena... St. James... St. John The Baptist... St. Tammany...
upper Jefferson... upper Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper
St. Bernard... upper Terrebonne... Washington... West Baton Rouge
and West Feliciana. In southern Mississippi... Amite... Pike...
Walthall and Wilkinson.

* From 7am Saturday through 7pm Sunday

* widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts
will be possible through Sunday.

* Localized flooding of urban and poor drainage areas will be
possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.


Organized literate kingdoms have existed in Yemen since 1200 BCE and possibly earlier, beginning with the kingdom of the Sabaeans, which was almost certainly the Biblical kingdom of Sheba. There are no known accounts of a hurricane hitting Yemen territory in all that time, and such a thing would be noted by the chroniclers. Yemen and environs in 230 CE:




The people nitpicking about the title of this entry are trouble-seeking concern trolls.
Quoting 106. Grothar:



I think we were quite fortunate this year. Some of those waves were impressive.
Now exactly a month away to the end. I think each basin had some big event this year.
Quoting 103. Barefootontherocks:

Much appreciate your acknowledging the difference between "history" and "recorded history."
I'm not sure he did that exactly. Regardless, maybe you could apologize for calling the headline sensationalist and misleading.

My pet dog could tell you he never meant to say it has never happened before.

Edit: Rollover! Sit!
Quoting 106. Grothar:



I think we were quite fortunate this year. Some of those waves were impressive.


Unfortunately 2016 looks like a more active Atlantic basin year.
Winter storm watch has just been issued for the entire Sierra Nevada. Arctic air is streaming out of the Bering Strait over the much warmer SSTs of the North Pacific. Classic wintertime Gulf of Alaska low spinning up. Jet max will move to the coast at the latitude of San Francisco.


November is expected to start out warm, 60s and 70s are expected during the first week. I don't mind at all since, a winter folklore says "A warm November is the sign of a bad winter". As long the there is a jamming snow.
Quoting 103. Barefootontherocks:

Much appreciate your acknowledging the difference between "history" and "recorded history."

Isn't "recorded history" redundant?
Seems Ozzie will be wearing a Poncho tomorrow night here at Voodoo Fest

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
426 PM CDT Friday Oct 30 2015

Short term...
pretty busy day in the office as the system expected to impact the
area tomorrow and Sunday is taking shape across south central and
East Texas. They have been dealing with intense rain and extensive
flooding across south Texas. This system will be pushing our way
and should be into the area tomorrow. We expect the flooding
threat to be the main issue as forecast precipitable water values
are forecasted to be in the 2.2 to 2.4 inch range which is very
impressive since the maximum observed for this time of the year is
roughly 1.8 to 2.0 inches. This is concerning as that would be a
new record if this forecast were to verify and seeing how the
convection over Texas produce extreme amounts of rain in a short
period of time...we have elected to Post a Flash Flood Watch for
our entire area excluding the Mississippi Gulf coastal counties
starting tomorrow morning lasting through Sunday. Soils are
already saturated from last weekend...couple that with the extreme
forecast precipitable water values...along with the more
convective nature of this event opposed to the more straitform
rains from last weekend...deep warm cloud layers...fairly decent
dynamics...and the possibility of multiple rounds of heavy rain
and training storms...are all signals that point to a heavy rain
event over some portion of the Gulf Coast this weekend. We are
expected 2 to 5 inches of rain with some higher amounts up to 8
inches depending on where heavy rain sets up over the area. This
may be a slow moving system as rain could linger on into Sunday.

There is also a threat for severe weather tomorrow as the Storm
Prediction Center has outlined our area in a slight risk for
severe weather with the main threat being tornadoes. There is a
limiting factor as instability will be very marginal...but
guidance does show some instability just outside of our forecast
area. The main timeframe for severe weather will be during the
late morning to afternoon hours Saturday mainly for isolated
storms that form ahead of the front. This is another Low Cape/high
shear event as low level winds will be backed and that would allow
for pretty good hooking hodographs. 0-3km storm relative helicity
is forecast to in the 300 to 500 m2/s2 range in the late morning
and afternoon hours tomorrow...along with fairly low LCLs it might
not take much for a quick spin up tornado tomorrow as the warm
front and surface low move across the forecast area. We should get
into the warm sector briefly so severe storms will be a threat.
This will have to be watched. 13/mh

Long term...
again the slow progression of this system may have rain lingering
into Sunday but starting to end by Sunday afternoon/evening. No
major changes to the forecast as a surface ridge will shift
eastward by midweek with onshore flow redeveloping across the
area. Isolated showers may move through the area on Wednesday as a
weak boundary moves northward through the area. The onshore flow
combined with a strengthening middle/upper level ridge will result in
a warming trend through the end of the week. 13/mh

&&
Quoting 122. BayFog:


Isn't "recorded history" redundant?
Woof!
Quoting 122. BayFog:


Isn't "recorded history" redundant?

No.
Quoting 118. bappit:

I'm not sure he did that exactly. Regardless, maybe you could apologize for calling the headline sensationalist and misleading.

My pet dog could tell you he never meant to say it has never happened before.

Edit: Rollover! Sit!
I say that he meant to say it.***(add: meant to put I DID NOT say in that and didn't, so I'll jus take that line out.) Before he posted, I had no idea who wrote the headline. No I can't. My comments were made in the context of a person reading only the headline/article title, and skipping the text. My point was and still is, the headline was not factual for anyone who read only the headline and not the article - the way many people skim through the massive amounts of info on the net and info in print. For these readers, the blog headline is "misleading and "sensationalistic" because it exaggerates the story told in the blog. The headline gives a wrong impression. News editors have used headlines to sway public opinion since the days when presses were operated by donkeys.

Also please note I mentioned I was not calling the headline as it reads a deliberate act to mislead, and I could not know that it was. You and anyone else who wishes to further discuss my position may, of course, go back and read what I actually posted. Anyone who wishes to continue this conversation is free to do so at my blog. I will not respond further here on the subject.

Ps. Bappit, I don't get the part of your comment that I bolded.
Quoting 122. BayFog:


Isn't "recorded history" redundant?
Not when you're talking about the Arabian Sea.
Quoting 116. BaltimoreBrian:

Organized literate kingdoms have existed in Yemen since 1200 BCE and possibly earlier, beginning with the kingdom of the Sabaeans, which was almost certainly the Biblical kingdom of Sheba. There are no known accounts of a hurricane hitting Yemen territory in all that time, and such a thing would be noted by the chroniclers. Yemen and environs in 230 CE:





The people nitpicking about the title of this entry are trouble-seeking concern trolls.


I thought that completely fabricating a definition of the word history was quite entertaining. Maybe now we will all have to qualify any statement regarding history as happening in this universe and not a parallel one.
Or we could just infer from the context that the statement is in regard to this universe. (we could just assume it entirely)

From dictionary.com:

noun, plural histories.
1.
the branch of knowledge dealing with past events.
2.
a continuous, systematic narrative of past events as relating to a particular people, country, period, person, etc., usually written as a chronological account; chronicle:
a history of France; a medical history of the patient.
3.
the aggregate of past events.
4.
the record of past events and times, especially in connection with the human race.
5.
a past notable for its important, unusual, or interesting events:
a ship with a history.
6.
acts, ideas, or events that will or can shape the course of the future; immediate but significant happenings:
Firsthand observers of our space program see history in the making.
7.
a systematic account of any set of natural phenomena without particular reference to time:


Link

Quoting 106. Grothar:



I think we were quite fortunate this year. Some of those waves were impressive.
Greetings Gro..If the waves are like that next year and conditions for development are good....Could be very active...Hopefully the Bermuda High will be oriented east ,and east coast trof will be in place...
Quoting 122. BayFog:


Isn't "recorded history" redundant?


According to the most common definitions of the word my interpretation is that you are correct.
We interrupt this blog for this Halloween Eve news flash. It's still fascinating 77 years later...

Documentary American Experience - War of the Worlds
Quoting 127. wartsttocs:



I thought that completely fabricating a definition of the word history was quite entertaining. Maybe now we will all have to qualify any statement regarding history as happening in this universe and not a parallel one. (snip)
I think Henry Ford had the last word: "History is bunk!" -- or at least it was attributed to him. (And don't get started on the derivation of "bunk"! :-)
132. Ookla
So how bad is the flooding in TX? Like last May, or like last week?
quote added: "The people nitpicking about the title of this entry are trouble-seeking concern trolls."

I am not a troll of any kind. I am individual who is not afraid to express myself and my thoughts. I know I see life differently than many of you. Name-calling from commenters here will not change my thinking or scare me away. NIce try but no soup for you.
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
645 PM CDT Friday Oct 30 2015

Update...
round two of storms is beginning to develop across Val Verde
County at the present time. One severe storm is already ongoing
and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for locations west
of a Kerrville to Pearsall line. These thunderstorms are
developing east of a surface low centered just west of the Rio
Grande. The environment is supportive for severe convection with
sbcapes approaching 2500 j/kg and effective bulk shear values
approaching 55-70 knots. A Pacific front or dryline will serve as
the surface focus for convection as this boundary should move
east this evening.

A cold front was located in the Texas Panhandle but should not
move into our region until after day break. High-res model output
shows the Pacific front moving through the area by 14z tomorrow
morning with west winds and drier conditions behind the front
clearing things out. With an actual boundary pushing through the
area...any one location should not receive further prolonged
convection. The latest hrrr run supports our current forecast of
1-2 inches with an isolated 5 inch total. Even though these totals
are not high...1-2 inches will lead to further quick rises of
area creeks which already received extreme rainfall today.
Therefore...the Flash Flood Watch will continue.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 628 PM CDT Friday Oct 30 2015/

Aviation...
/00z tafs/
MVFR conditions are expected across area sites this evening
with periods of IFR and even LIFR overnight and early Saturday.
A cold front is expected to push across the area late this evening
into the overnight hours coupled with an upper level disturbance
pushing from West Texas towards south central Texas. With this
scenario in place...expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Some of these storms may be strong to severe
capable of producing damaging winds up to 52 knots. During these
storms ceilings and vbsys with lower significantly. As the cold front
pushes through the area...a wind shift is expected first across
the southern Edwards Plateau with wind shifting to the north
along the I-35 terminals around middle morning (16z) Saturday.
Weather conditions will improve from west to east on Saturday with
showers and storms mainly affecting the the eastern
counties...away from area terminals.

Previous discussion... /issued 440 PM CDT Friday Oct 30 2015/

Short term (tonight through Saturday night)...
a relative lull in our historic heavy rainfall event is expected
through the early evening hours over most of south central Texas
as most of the region remains in the warm sector of the Pacific
midlatitude cyclone now that the warm front has moved north of our
County Warning Area. Isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will
continue mainly north of Interstate 10 and east of Highway 281.
Although cape is currently fairly limited north of an Austin to La
Grange line...effective storm relative helicity values approaching
300 m^2/s^2 and bulk shear values of 40-45 kts will allow any
stronger cells to rotate should any develop. Thus...have allowed
the Tornado Watch for our northwestern most six counties to
continue through 7pm CDT after coordinating with Storm Prediction Center out of an
abundance of caution should cape recover more quickly than
expected. Aside from that...the main concern through the early
evening hours for the I-35 corridor will be significant river
flooding issues as the last flash flood emergency for Onion Creek
has expired before two separate potential rounds of storms move
through the area tonight.

Attention for our first round of strong to severe storms expected
later tonight for the I-35 corridor...Hill Country...and Edwards
Plateau turns out west where convection is trying to develop
along a pre-frontal trough or pseudo dryline that is moving into
western Val Verde County. Isolated convection has begun to fire in
Mexico along the serrenias del burro mountains with a line of
convection in the NE part of san angelos County Warning Area associated with this
feature...with some agitated cumulus in between the two areas. The last
several runs of the hrrr and 12z Texas tech WRF have handled the
timing of this initiation relatively well compared to most other
global models and hi-res guidance...so trust that at least a few
convective cells will develop and move east into the evening
hours...reaching the I-35 corridor around 9-10 PM CDT. Favorable
helicity and shear values will support rotating updrafts should
these cells develop and remain fairly discrete...so straight line
wind damage...severe hail...and isolated tornadoes will be
possible.

A second round of strong to severe storms is expected to develop
with the main cold front overnight...which the most recent run of
the hrrr and Texas tech WRF indicate will reach the I-35 corridor
around 3-5 am CDT Saturday morning. These storms should include a
straight-line wind threat in addition to the flash flood threat.
Given the 5-10 inches and isolated 12-16 inch totals that have
fallen along the I-35 corridor from a swath from far northwest Bexar
County to Wimberley to east Austin to Elgin...any additional
rainfall that falls will directly runoff resulting in flash
flooding and further complicating ongoing river flooding issues.
The fast progression of this system should keep average rainfall
totals to 1 to 2 inches with isolated spots up to 4 inches. Some
runs of the hrrr suggest this may be a broken line of convection
while the Texas tech WRF shows it will be continuous...so hopefully
the broken line materializes to help mitigate some of these issues
or the rainfall totals are evenly distributed. Rain chances will
end from west to east by Saturday afternoon as drier air and
clearer skies move in behind the cold front to cause a cool and
dry Halloween night for trick or treating.

Long term (sunday through friday)...
dry weather will continue through Tuesday as moisture does not
begin to return with southerly flow until Monday evening. Rain
chances will begin to increase by late Tuesday into Wednesday
ahead of our next upper level disturbance. These rain chances are
expected to persist through at least Friday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 66 79 57 77 50 / 70 40 10 - -
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 67 80 57 77 48 / 70 40 10 - -
New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 83 57 78 51 / 70 40 - 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 63 75 54 75 51 / 80 30 10 - 0
del Rio International Airport 62 79 53 82 51 / 60 10 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 65 77 55 75 51 / 80 40 10 10 -
Hondo Muni Airport 65 82 54 80 50 / 60 10 - 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 68 80 57 77 51 / 70 40 - 0 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 70 81 59 76 53 / 80 60 10 10 -
San Antonio International Airport 67 83 56 78 51 / 70 20 - 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 68 84 57 79 51 / 70 20 - 0 0

&&
Quoting 34. Neapolitan:

1) Regardless of the length of record, Chapala *is* the 2nd strongest storm in the Arabian Sea in that period. That's 25 years. That's still a notable record.

2) People have lived in and around and on the Arabian Sea for tens of thousands--and perhaps hundreds of thousands--of years. While the computer/satellite record is just a few decades old, oral history goes back many millennia, and the geological record goes back much further.

In short: yes, it's just you.


Actually written records go back quite a ways in that area, and something like ol' Chappy there would certainly have merited at least a note in the margins.

People complaining about the title have a significant bias. I read the title and my first thought was NOT "in the history of the planet", and I pretty sure most others wouldn't have read it that way either.
Quoting 44. SLU:



Thanks for your objective reasoning.


If by objective you mean "heavily biased", then you are correct. No one except for the denier "I'm a victim!" crowd would interpret the title as anything more than an event in the meteorological record, which is further reinforced by the subject matter of the actual blog.

Quoting 132. Ookla:

So how bad is the flooding in TX? Like last May, or like last week?

This impacted more people. Focus was closer to the IH35 corridor and I suspect had greater aerial coverage. I think the storms in May were more destructive in terms of physical damage and fatalities. It's a hard question to give a clear answer to.
Quoting 46. SLU:



If maritime records go back 70-90 years, how comes we have a record of non-landfalling Atlantic hurricanes from 1851 to 1944, before hurricane hunter aircraft, satellite photos, radar etc??????


Oh for $DIETY's sake, would you stop with this ignorance routine? Detailed naval records have been kept by multiple countries and dominant powers since antiquity. This is straight out of elementary school history class.

Just because people in the ancient world didn't have GPS, weather radars, and electricity didn't mean they were stupid. You think they navigated their sea routes by magic? You think they didn't recognize signs of impending bad weather or keep track of the times of year where sailing certain waters were more dangerous?
Good Evening Wunder Friends. Anyone ever heard of the movie "Gasland?" Pretty horrifying if you live near fracking sights. They took some cigarette lighters and ran the water on the tap and boom it caught on fire. They said, the water is contaminated with natural gas, it's basically gasoline. There are people drinking this water and they are getting sick, especially farmers in Colorado their animals are also getting sick. Think about it for a second some of us consume beef and get milk from these cows. And this is a good idea to continue to drill, why? Oh that's right whatever makes these oil companies money, talk about greed. Also, when the Energy Policy Act was passed in 2005, President George W. Bush passed exemptions for the oil and gas industries, which included exemptions from the Safe Drinking Water Act, Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Superfund Law, and dozens of other regulations. I have to wonder and maybe this is too extreme, but shouldn't this be considered a criminal act orchestrated by our government during that time? I mean they knew about it, but covered it up.

You can watch the movie here: Gasland
141. OCF
Quoting 45. TimSoCal:


Gotta wonder how bad things are in San Marcos from looking at that.

I've got family - in-laws - in New Braunfels. I'd worry about them, too.
Quoting 121. Climate175:

November is expected to start out warm, 60s and 70s are expected during the first week. I don't mind at all since, a winter folklore says "A warm November is the sign of a bad winter". As long the there is a jamming snow.


If ice in November will bear a duck
there'll be nothing thereafter but slush and muck.

I was in Texas for the May flooding south of Huston. There was somehow a shark on the road in Galveston... The building across the street lit on fire for a little bit from electrical crap and a fence got blown down while the road went under at leat 5' of water. I was like What the actual F%*&
Quoting 132. Ookla:

So how bad is the flooding in TX? Like last May, or like last week?
Why is the national forecast on the home page dated October 19 and has been since Oct.19. Maybe it's my old MacBook.
Quoting 142. georgevandenberghe:



If ice in November will bear a duck
there'll be nothing thereafter but slush and muck.




I have no idea what that first phrase means, lol.
146. beell
Quoting 145. Astrometeor:



I have no idea what that first phrase means, lol.


Same as "kangaroo a turtle".
Quoting 146. beell:



Same as "kangaroo a turtle".


Still no clue. Translate into English, please? :-) I know you old people know what it means, lol.
148. beell
it means; if the ice is thick enough to support or "bear" the weight of a duck...
Quoting 147. Astrometeor:



Still no clue. Translate into English, please? :-) I know you old people know what it means, lol.


I even know one about a pumpkin
Quoting 53. MichaelDoran:



The paper is about the carbon cycle. What I am saying is if the oceans lose CO2 to a storm it goes into the clouds and then given the electrical complexity I am describing impacts their behaviors. Ripped right out of current conditions the flooding in Austin, if you look the past day in the EPAC some thunderstorms which would decarbonate the oceans with the surface lows and winds of those storms and then the sub tropical jet takes those elevated levels of carbonation to Texas, and at the same time regionally there is a displacement current flowing regionally that makes the potential differences better for lightning in Texas, and with the moisture in the sub tropical jet (which yes falls under a more traditional analysis) providing for a COMPLEXITY, you get this extreme rain:
Current lightning in Americas


1) No storm is going to "decarbonate the oceans" to any measurable degree, least of all to the point where it could actually impact weather significantly in another part of the world.

2). CO2 is an electrical insulator and an inert gas. The only time it becomes a weak conductor is when it mixes with water and forms carbonic acid, which is a very slow process, as can be seen in any soda bottle.

Carbonic acid is about the worst compound for your crazy hypothesis as there are much better atmospheric compounds that form stronger acids (i.e, better conductors) and mix much easier with water

3) Magic doesn't exist. Unless you have major and earth shattering evidence to the contrary, conservation of energy and the laws of thermodynamics apply.

Your hypothesis is riddled with more holes than carbon nanotube foam. Your pitting this against the body of meteorological science, and the best you've managed to come up with so far are some contrived scenarios of implausibility without even so much as a basic correlation analysis.

Science is about coming with ways to explain and then predict reality, not coming up with half-baked nonsense and then trying to shoe horn reality into it. That's what Deniers, IDers, Flat Earthers, Young Earthers, etc. all try and do. And all of them fail the scientific sniff test because they have the whole scientific process ass-backwards.

If you have some published science or even some basic valid physics to back up your hypothesis then by all means post it. But this isn't OU or WUWT. If you post psuedoscientific garbage you're going to get called out on it.
Quoting 133. Barefootontherocks:

quote added: "The people nitpicking about the title of this entry are trouble-seeking concern trolls."

I am not a troll of any kind. I am individual who is not afraid to express myself and my thoughts. I know I see life differently than many of you. Name-calling from commenters here will not change my thinking or scare me away. NIce try but no soup for you.
Barefoot, you may be considered rowdy, argumentative, or just plain contentious, but you are certainly no troll.

:o)
Quoting 148. beell:

it means; if the ice is thick enough to support or "bear" the weight of a duck...
Yes, but what about that chair, eh...?
Quoting 144. ozelloslim:

Why is the national forecast on the home page dated October 19 and has been since Oct.19. Maybe it's my old MacBook.
Clear your cache. Something is stuck.
Quoting 147. Astrometeor:

Still no clue. Translate into English, please? :-) I know you old people know what it means, lol.
This will explain it, Nathan
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
524 PM PDT FRI OCT 30 2015

CAZ001-002-311315-
REDWOOD COAST-MENDOCINO COAST-
524 PM PDT FRI OCT 30 2015

LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BEACHES THIS
WEEKEND. SURF WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BREAKERS
APPROACHING 15 TO 20 FEET ON SUNDAY. THE LARGEST SURF WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COASTS.

The folks at Mavericks are starting to get their hopes up.
It takes only a sliver of ice to support a duck. It takes a little more to support the two swans on campus. And just a little more to get freshmen students to walk out onto the pond.

Quoting 154. BaltimoreBrian:

This will explain it, Nathan


Since when did Monty Python become clear and understandable? >.<

Quoting 149. Grothar:



I even know one about a pumpkin


I keep trying to think of a witty retort to this, but it's a Friday night....zzz....
Quoting 156. Astrometeor:

It takes only a sliver of ice to support a duck. It takes a little more to support the two swans on campus. And just a little more to get freshmen students to walk out onto the pond.

Since when did Monty Python become clear and understandable? >.<

I keep trying to think of a witty retort to this, but it's a Friday night....zzz....

Not after Friday night beers.
Quoting 150. Xyrus2000:



1) No storm is going to "decarbonate the oceans" to any measurable degree, least of all to the point where it could actually impact weather significantly in another part of the world.

2). CO2 is an electrical insulator and an inert gas. The only time it becomes a weak conductor is when it mixes with water and forms carbonic acid, which is a very slow process, as can be seen in any soda bottle.

Carbonic acid is about the worst compound for your crazy hypothesis as there are much better atmospheric compounds that form stronger acids (i.e, better conductors) and mix much easier with water

3) Magic doesn't exist. Unless you have major and earth shattering evidence to the contrary, conservation of energy and the laws of thermodynamics apply.

Your hypothesis is riddled with more holes than carbon nanotube foam. Your pitting this against the body of meteorological science, and the best you've managed to come up with so far are some contrived scenarios of implausibility without even so much as a basic correlation analysis.

Science is about coming with ways to explain and then predict reality, not coming up with half-baked nonsense and then trying to shoe horn reality into it. That's what Deniers, IDers, Flat Earthers, Young Earthers, etc. all try and do. And all of them fail the scientific sniff test because they have the whole scientific process ass-backwards.

If you have some published science or even some basic valid physics to back up your hypothesis then by all means post it. But this isn't OU or WUWT. If you post psuedoscientific garbage you're going to get called out on it.


Best I could get from his convoluted thought is that strong tropical systems release a lot of energy and with the heat being stored in the first 300 feet of the oceans this would be a carbon release, maybe even a large amount. And the extra energy with the CO2 in the ocean as it is now contributes to stronger systems though electrical C02 super charge. Would ease AGW none and just contributes to more energy being released into an already supercharged climate. Only sense I could make of the black hole of nonsense he was selling hard. Thanks Xyrus2000 and all others who delve into that crap.

Quoting 139. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Evening Wunder Friends. Anyone ever heard of the movie "Gasland?" Pretty horrifying if you live near fracking sights. They took some cigarette lighters and ran the water on the tap and boom it caught on fire. They said, the water is contaminated with natural gas, it's basically gasoline. There are people drinking this water and they are getting sick, especially farmers in Colorado their animals are also getting sick. Think about it for a second some of us consume beef and get milk from these cows. And this is a good idea to continue to drill, why? Oh that's right whatever makes these oil companies money, talk about greed. Also, when the Energy Policy Act was passed in 2005, President George W. Bush passed exemptions for the oil and gas industries, which included exemptions from the Safe Drinking Water Act, Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Superfund Law, and dozens of other regulations. I have to wonder and maybe this is too extreme, but shouldn't this be considered a criminal act orchestrated by our government during that time? I mean they knew about it, but covered it up.

You can watch the movie here: Gasland



Ahh, someone who knows how to raise my dander in agreement, that scene was shot not 17 miles from my present home, I also know a lot of other people in that area who now get there water trucked in, used to work with some of them before they were forced to move from that formerly pristine land due to the pollution. 3 years ago, I quit driving down I-70 past West Rifle for a long while because of the reeking fumes in the air from there to DeBeque

On another note, Champala might be the second strongest storm in recorded history in the area, but those canyons shown along the Yemeni coast  weren't made from a lack of water, quite the opposite. Look and see what the storms in the Atacama last summer left.
Quoting 139. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Evening Wunder Friends. Anyone ever heard of the movie "Gasland?" Pretty horrifying if you live near fracking sights. They took some cigarette lighters and ran the water on the tap and boom it caught on fire. They said, the water is contaminated with natural gas, it's basically gasoline. There are people drinking this water and they are getting sick, especially farmers in Colorado their animals are also getting sick. Think about it for a second some of us consume beef and get milk from these cows. And this is a good idea to continue to drill, why? Oh that's right whatever makes these oil companies money, talk about greed. Also, when the Energy Policy Act was passed in 2005, President George W. Bush passed exemptions for the oil and gas industries, which included exemptions from the Safe Drinking Water Act, Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Superfund Law, and dozens of other regulations. I have to wonder and maybe this is too extreme, but shouldn't this be considered a criminal act orchestrated by our government during that time? I mean they knew about it, but covered it up.

You can watch the movie here: Gasland
I don't think any president has the right to pass anything. That's done by the two houses of Congress. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 was signed into law by President Bush in 2005. The only exemptions in that bill were for fracking fluids, not some general exemptions for the gas and oil industries. There have been seven years worth of Congresses since that time that could have repealed those exemptions assuming that those on both sides of the aisle weren't on the payroll of frackers. It also has developed since the release of the original Gasland in 2010 that the faucet with the flames is in an area of large natural gas concentrations, and natural fracking has led to high methane concentrations in water going back to the 1920's to 30's, long before hydraulic fracturing. Teenagers, being scamps even then, would light the water on fire to amuse one another. There wasn't as much to do back then, I guess. Even worse, it appears one of the producers of Gasland II engaged in outright fraud, with a gas hose hooked up to a water faucet to make better flames for the camera. There's ample evidence of this on the web if you want to google it.

I'm not defending fracking. There's ample evidence that it causes earthquakes, and that fracking fluid has some bad effects on drinking water. One of those bad effects, however, is not making tap water catch on fire.
I'm not an oceanographer. With that said, hurricanes cool the surface water and aerate the sea surface very efficiently. Cooler water holds more CO2 than warmer water. So I think that hurricanes would tend to move CO2 from the air to the surface layers of the ocean. But that would be temporary--in the weeks after a hurricane's passage the cold water wake would warm and there wouldn't be much net effect.
Went from talking to a warm start to November to ducks and ice. Blog conversations are very interesting indeed. LOL.
I can only speak about the Austin metro area. The precipitation today far exceeded that of last weekend. Kind of a chicken or egg thing since the ground was already saturated from between 6-12 inches that fell over three days last week/weekend. However, gauges near ABIA (the airport) registered over 14 inches today. That is an all time record for that area. Downtown received 6-8 inches over a five hour period and I believe Camp Mabry, west of downtown
picked up a little over six. As far as rain over a short period of time, I would consider this to be close to the Memorial Day flood in that a lot of rain fell in a very short period of time on saturated soil. Some places fared better than back in may while others not so much. Ironically, the hardest hit area in Austin, Onion Creek, where there has been one confirmed fatality, also flooded on Halloween back in 2013. We all went to bed last night expecting a couple of inches of rain and woke up to a tornado watch and a radar loop that was more colorful than the Christmas tree at Rockefeller Center. If this is any indication of what El Nino has in store for the South, I plan on buying a jon boat or a zodiac to boot.


Quoting 132. Ookla:

So how bad is the flooding in TX? Like last May, or like last week?
San Marcos Flooding - Aerial Footage

Shot by Geoffrey King in San Marcos, TX - Sewell Park and Aquarena Springs Dr.
October 30, 2015
Quoting 150. Xyrus2000:



1) No storm is going to "decarbonate the oceans" to any measurable degree, least of all to the point where it could actually impact weather significantly in another part of the world.

The Bates et al paper stated observations of the oceans losing about 1/3 of its carbonation in the wake of the storm. It took about 2 weeks for the oceans to recover the carbonation. My point is simply if you have a cloud that isn't connected to the low it's going to have relatively less of a source of CO2 to dissolve into the clouds than clouds associated with the surface low that decarbonates the ocean. THEN that storm will be subject to organizing electrical fields to a greater degree than clouds without the source of carbonation and will interact with the upper atmosphere and cause less shear. This would also be interesting with respect to teleconnections like ENSO which are not adequately explained in terms of why they switch on and off. I will slowly build my case here. So some degree I also intend to ignore your flaming. To SOME degree.


2). CO2 is an electrical insulator and an inert gas. The only time it becomes a weak conductor is when it mixes with water and forms carbonic acid, which is a very slow process, as can be seen in any soda bottle.

Pure water is much more interesting here. Pure water is an outstanding insulator. CO2 will come out of the ocean per the Bates et al paper and for a period should be a gas, but then as condensation occurs it almost immediately will re-dissolve into the forming clouds. There is much discussion about the CO2 already in the atmosphere, so what is discussed would be a local increase in carbonation of the clouds relative to the low removing it from the ocean and that is when it is relatively interesting.


Carbonic acid is about the worst compound for your crazy hypothesis as there are much better atmospheric compounds that form stronger acids (i.e, better conductors) and mix much easier with water

I agree that SOx emissions also are significant electrically. I have observed direct differences in behaviors of tropical storms from SOx emissions. For instance Andrew was a post Mt. Pinatubo storm, followed by general cooling then the 1997-8 El Nino. All related. But fundamentally carbon is the stuff of life, and electrically carbon has become this stuff because it is used by a living earth to modulate both global temperature AND chemistry via cloud behaviors, rainfall and rivers etc.


3) Magic doesn't exist. Unless you have major and earth shattering evidence to the contrary, conservation of energy and the laws of thermodynamics apply.

This is just a flame. I could call you an a-hole back but what is the point? Is the point of your post because you are sadistic? If so, please go away and don't post to me. I WANT to treat you with respect and simply ask you do the same thing. If you actually had a point posting like this is only making you look like an a-hole and defeats any higher purpose--say a scientific discussion and debate.

Your hypothesis is riddled with more holes than carbon nanotube foam. Your pitting this against the body of meteorological science, and the best you've managed to come up with so far are some contrived scenarios of implausibility without even so much as a basic correlation analysis.

See above.


Science is about coming with ways to explain and then predict reality, not coming up with half-baked nonsense and then trying to shoe horn reality into it. That's what Deniers, IDers, Flat Earthers, Young Earthers, etc. all try and do. And all of them fail the scientific sniff test because they have the whole scientific process ass-backwards.

See above.

If you have some published science or even some basic valid physics to back up your hypothesis then by all means post it. But this isn't OU or WUWT. If you post psuedoscientific garbage you're going to get called out on it.
See above.
Quoting 161. BaltimoreBrian:

I'm not an oceanographer. With that said, hurricanes cool the surface water and aerate the sea surface very efficiently. Cooler water holds more CO2 than warmer water. So I think that hurricanes would tend to move CO2 from the air to the surface layers of the ocean. But that would be temporary--in the weeks after a hurricane's passage the cold water wake would warm and there wouldn't be much net effect.


This is not empirically what the Bates et al Harvard (2003) paper on Hurricane Felix found. It found rather that about 1/3 of the carbonation of the ocean was removed. From a common sense stand point, shake a beer and crack it open. Indeed aerate your beer pour it on plate. Let it breath. Then drink it. I think you will find the beer flat. It's about the lower pressure from the storm AND the roiling winds that removes the carbonation then after about 2 weeks it goes back to an equilibrium.
Quoting 158. DeepSeaRising:



Best I could get from his convoluted thought is that strong tropical systems release a lot of energy and with the heat being stored in the first 300 feet of the oceans this would be a carbon release, maybe even a large amount. And the extra energy with the CO2 in the ocean as it is now contributes to stronger systems though electrical C02 super charge. Would ease AGW none and just contributes to more energy being released into an already supercharged climate. Only sense I could make of the black hole of nonsense he was selling hard. Thanks Xyrus2000 and all others who delve into that crap.


The best I can make of your comment is that you don't understand it so therefore it's crap. I don't even know how to have a discussion with that . . . and perhaps we shouldn't.
With over eight billion stars possibly capable of having life such as ours in the Milky Way alone it does really boggle the imagination. Who knows? Estimates have from 100 billion to a trillion planets possibly in the Milky Way. And what a small sample indeed. As we sit in the comfort of our homes, comforted by our loved ones, with the comforts of every day life; does this not in itself argue for a creator. Is man/woman alone to credit for all of this or has God been with us all along? And we don't know. It's a pretty good hypothesis mathematically speaking that we're not alone, but what if there is only us?
Well out here everything is so calm, all that noise is now downstream. 1 person dead and 2 missing, not to make light of the missing or dead but I can say people handled this event very nicely and it very well could have ended up worse such as it did back in May. I believe people are finally understanding and realising the danger of epic flash floods and not making dumb decisions. I have heard people say that this rainfall wasn't expected and it wasn't. However based on the past, these events are nearly impossible to predict ahead of time and people need to understand that.

As it's getting late now looks like i'll probably be woken up in the middle of the night again. lol Looks like some powerful storms coming from Mexico.



Quoting 167. MichaelDoran:



The best I can make of your comment is that you don't understand it so therefore it's crap. I don't even know how to have a discussion with that . . . and perhaps we shouldn't.


You know, that's fair enough. As I read that it was a real study you quoted in the very beginning and that there was more detail given by you than I could follow or verify, I did hesitate with my response based on my lack of knowledge. For that, you have my apologies.
SouthCentralTx those storms near Del Rio do not look helpful. Good luck!
Contribution of tropical cyclones to the air-sea CO2 flux: A global view from GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, VOL. 26, GB2001, doi:10.1029/2011GB004145, 2012

quoting from page 9 of the paper: "In consequence, in the North West Atlantic and Arabian Sea, which are mostly supersaturated during the cyclonic season, the net effect of TC on FCO2 during the cyclonic season is very weak because the storm and post-storm effects almost compensate."

FCO2 is CO2 forcing.

Bolding added by me. It fits what I said in comment #161.
Quoting 161. BaltimoreBrian:

I'm not an oceanographer. With that said, hurricanes cool the surface water and aerate the sea surface very efficiently. Cooler water holds more CO2 than warmer water. So I think that hurricanes would tend to move CO2 from the air to the surface layers of the ocean. But that would be temporary--in the weeks after a hurricane's passage the cold water wake would warm and there wouldn't be much net effect.
I'm not that smart when it comes to CO2 and the ocean. What I did have to learn a lot about to get my extra class amatuer radio license was the ionosphere and how it reacts to electricity. There is absolutely zero chance that changes in the ionosphere, which actually cause lightning, in some part of the world far removed from a hurricane is going to have any effect on that hurricane. This is yet another example of clutching at straws from those who deny that CO2 has any effect on global warming and that's it's really caused by some wacky teleconnection between lighting, hurricanes, and oceanic carbonation. Even without knowing any of that, the fact that some of this came from a self-published paper about electromagnetic forces in tornadoes that goes against almost everything we understand about physics is enough for me to write it off as the ramblings yet another kook.
Quoting 166. MichaelDoran:

This is not empirically what the Bates et al Harvard (2003) paper on Hurricane Felix found. It found rather that about 1/3 of the carbonation of the ocean was removed. From a common sense stand point, shake a beer and crack it open. Indeed aerate your beer pour it on plate. Let it breath. Then drink it. I think you will find the beer flat. It's about the lower pressure from the storm AND the roiling winds that removes the carbonation then after about 2 weeks it goes back to an equilibrium.
Two points: The ocean has 50 times the CO2 that the atmosphere does. Removing 1/3 of the carbonation of the ocean would increase atmospheric CO2 by more than 16-fold. Also, beer is carbonated under artificial pressure, which is not the case with the ocean.
Quoting 166. MichaelDoran:



This is not empirically what the Bates et al Harvard (2003) paper on Hurricane Felix found. It found rather that about 1/3 of the carbonation of the ocean was removed. From a common sense stand point, shake a beer and crack it open. Indeed aerate your beer pour it on plate. Let it breath. Then drink it. I think you will find the beer flat. It's about the lower pressure from the storm AND the roiling winds that removes the carbonation then after about 2 weeks it goes back to an equilibrium.
Do you have an actual link to this paper you keep citing? No matter how many different ways I search, I can't find it.
Quoting 166. MichaelDoran:



This is not empirically what the Bates et al Harvard (2003) paper on Hurricane Felix found. It found rather that about 1/3 of the carbonation of the ocean was removed. From a common sense stand point, shake a beer and crack it open. Indeed aerate your beer pour it on plate. Let it breath. Then drink it. I think you will find the beer flat. It's about the lower pressure from the storm AND the roiling winds that removes the carbonation then after about 2 weeks it goes back to an equilibrium.


Lets fix this, the carbonation of the ocean Felix went over. There that makes more sense. It removed it for two weeks and went back to an equilibrium. So what? It changes nothing with what's happening globally with AGW. What have we learned from this? You worded it the same way earlier today.
Quoting 176. sar2401:

Do you have an actual link to this paper you keep citing? No matter how many different ways I search, I can't find it.


It does exist Sar. I gave the name earlier. Would have to grab it again. Maybe Mr. Doran would be so kind.
Quoting 178. DeepSeaRising:



It does exist Sar. I gave the name earlier. Would have to grab it again. Maybe Mr. Doran would be so kind.


But an actual link? I can't find anything about a "hurricane Felix and carbonization" in my University's scholarly access database.
Judging from the comments - hurricane season is over .... ;>)
Not so fast.
Quoting 171. DeepSeaRising:



You know, that's fair enough. As I read that it was a real study you quoted in the very beginning and that there was more detail given by you than I could follow or verify, I did hesitate with my response based on my lack of knowledge. For that, you have my apologies.
DSR, it wasn't a real study. It's a self-published, non-peer reviewed, non-cited, non-scientific essay written by this guy. As he states in the second sentence of his "abstract" -

"Consistency with the current research trends within the disciplines of meteorology and geophysics is neglected in the pursuit of a mechanistic model that can more accurately describe the distinctive characteristics of tornadic supercells."

He's starting out a study about tornadoes and supercells, two meteorological and geophysical events, by saying he is going to ignore this huge body of proven scientific theories in those two fields and develop a brand new theory based on some "mechanistic" model, whatever that means. Chandler and Doran both depend on the idea that, if you develop a large enough vocabulary of scientific and pseudoscientific terms, a lot of readers will think they must be on to something, since they use all those big words. Nothing could be further from the truth. As I've said before, show me any reputable scientist in the fields of meteorology, geophysics, or electrical theory and engineering that have cited this "study", even once. It hasn't happened, because any reputable scientist would laugh this pair right out of the room. It's pseudoscience, and that's the most dangerous form of scientific fraud.
Quoting 179. Astrometeor:

But an actual link? I can't find anything about a "hurricane Felix and carbonization" in my University's scholarly access database.
I tried using the terms Bates, Harvard, Hurricane , Felix and 2003 and found nothing relevant on Google. I did find the paper I linked from 2012 using other search terms.
Am I the only one that has the Nexrad not updating on severe alerts? It still shows flash flood warnings that ended at 430, so it's been atleast 7 hours. Tried both computer and phone.
Quoting 178. DeepSeaRising:



It does exist Sar. I gave the name earlier. Would have to grab it again. Maybe Mr. Doran would be so kind.
No, an essay this guy Chandler wrote exists. This the link. If you're not going to slog your way through the "study", go read Chandler's resume. Let me know if it sounds like someone with any kind of science background other than some self-taught programming. I'm sorry, but people like this do not develop some brand new theory that no actual scientist in the last 200 years has thought of.
From CO2Science. www.co2science.org/articles/V6/N6/COM.php is the link to the paper I read on this.
Quoting 182. BaltimoreBrian:

I tried using the terms Bates, Harvard, Hurricane , Felix and 2003 and found nothing relevant on Google. I did find the paper I linked from 2012 using other search terms.
Same for me, which why I asked him for an actual link. I'm not holding my breath, however.
Quoting 183. SouthCentralTx:

Am I the only one that has the Nexrad not updating on severe alerts? It still shows flash flood warnings that ended at 430, so it's been atleast 7 hours. Tried both computer and phone.


No visible flash flood warnings on here for me. Which URL site are you looking at?
My point is even if this paper exists, it proves very little. So what if CO2 is taken out or not after a huge hurricane and then goes back in two weeks. This means nothing. It's cool they got to measure that, but why have we been talking about this all day? Please tell me Mr. Doran.
Quoting 185. DeepSeaRising:

From CO2Science. www.co2science.org/articles/V6/N6/COM.php is the link to the paper I read on this.
Dude, CO2Science is one of the leading AGW denialist sites. Do you ever go to a site's "About Us" links and look around? This is from the first paragraph of their "position" paper --

"There is little doubt the air's CO2 concentration has risen significantly since the inception of the Industrial Revolution; and there are few who do not attribute the CO2 increase to the increase in humanity's use of fossil fuels. There is also little doubt the earth has warmed slightly over the same period; but there is no compelling reason to believe that the rise in temperature was caused by the rise in CO2. Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that future increases in the air's CO2 content will produce any global warming; for there are numerous problems with the popular hypothesis that links the two phenomena." Link

Sound like a non-biased science site to you? Seriously, the "Donate" button on each page should be your first tip off.
Quoting 187. Astrometeor:



No visible flash flood warnings on here for me. Which URL site are you looking at?


Wundergrounds radar. Link

Edit: Also shows the old tornado watch.
Quoting 185. DeepSeaRising:

From CO2Science. www.co2science.org/articles/V6/N6/COM.php is the link to the paper I read on this.


According to IRS records, the ExxonMobil Foundation provided a grant of $15,000 to the center in 2000.[3] Another report states that ExxonMobil has funded an additional $55,000 to the center.[4] ExxonMobil stated it funded, "organizations which research significant policy issues and promote informed discussion on issues of direct relevance to the company. [...] These organizations do not speak on our behalf, nor do we control their views and messages.

Just saying
Quoting 181. sar2401:

DSR, it wasn't a real study. It's a self-published, non-peer reviewed, non-cited, non-scientific essay written by this guy. As he states in the second sentence of his "abstract" -

"Consistency with the current research trends within the disciplines of meteorology and geophysics is neglected in the pursuit of a mechanistic model that can more accurately describe the distinctive characteristics of tornadic supercells."

He's starting out a study about tornadoes and supercells, two meteorological and geophysical events, by saying he is going to ignore this huge body of proven scientific theories in those two fields and develop a brand new theory based on some "mechanistic" model, whatever that means. Chandler and Doran both depend on the idea that, if you develop a large enough vocabulary of scientific and pseudoscientific terms, a lot of readers will think they must be on to something, since they use all those big words. Nothing could be further from the truth. As I've said before, show me any reputable scientist in the fields of meteorology, geophysics, or electrical theory and engineering that have cited this "study", even once. It hasn't happened, because any reputable scientist would laugh this pair right out of the room. It's pseudoscience, and that's the most dangerous form of scientific fraud.


Drop that knowledge then Sar.
Quoting 190. SouthCentralTx:



Wundergrounds radar. Link

Edit: Also shows the old tornado watch.


Ah, ok. I see the tornado watch as well, but the greens I'm seeing are Flood Warnings/Flood Advisories, which are on the NWS page and are current.
Quoting 189. sar2401:

Dude, CO2Science is one of the leading AGW denialist sites. Do you ever go to a site's "About Us" links and look around? This is from the first paragraph of their "position" paper --

"There is little doubt the air's CO2 concentration has risen significantly since the inception of the Industrial Revolution; and there are few who do not attribute the CO2 increase to the increase in humanity's use of fossil fuels. There is also little doubt the earth has warmed slightly over the same period; but there is no compelling reason to believe that the rise in temperature was caused by the rise in CO2. Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that future increases in the air's CO2 content will produce any global warming; for there are numerous problems with the popular hypothesis that links the two phenomena." Link

Sound like a non-biased science site to you? Seriously, the "Donate" button on each page should be your first tip off.



Of coarse. Why I said where I found it. After he had gone down the rabbit hole, I thought it was obvious that this is one troll who's earned his money today. We just don't understand his new science Sar. I get it.
CO2Science probably sent him. We should feel honored and give him an atta boy, better luck next time. He's trying hard.
Quoting 194. Astrometeor:



Ah, ok. I see the tornado watch as well, but the greens I'm seeing are Flood Warnings/Flood Advisories, which are on the NWS page and are current.


Ah well, guess it's just buggy for the day. Doesn't even show the storms off to the west as severe. I'll use the SPC radar tonight. Good night!
I will give a lot of you credit it takes some serious reading comprehension skills to understand and interpret each of these comments on AGW. I can seriously tell who went to school and got a degree in their respectful fields. Many of these peer-reviewed scientific journals are not the easiest to read either. You seriously have to have the patience to sit down and read through them, sometimes even re-reading through them to gain an understanding of what's going on in that context of writing. I have the utmost respect for those who take the time to write in scientific journals and those who take the time to read through them. Having an understanding in these journals can help further research into the field, especially climatology, it also doesn't make you look like a fool or ignorant when you try to debunk these scientists either.
Quoting 185. DeepSeaRising:

From CO2Science. www.co2science.org/articles/V6/N6/COM.php is the link to the paper I read on this.
And, even from that article (not a study), it comes up with it's own spin on a bunch of other studies without ever quoting directly from any of them. I'm familiar with a few of them, and the conclusions on that web page are not the same as the views of the authors of those studies. But, even forgiving that as part of the denialist plan, do you see one of those studies as being "Bates, et al Harvard (2003)"? Of course not, because Doran copied that from some other web site (which also got the date wrong) and doesn't have any idea what the real conclusions of the 1998 study were. People like Doran love throwing out study citations (especially the "et al" part, because it sounds so sciency) as if they support his cockamamy theories with the full knowledge that almost no one will ever look up those studies and challenge him. Unfortunately for him, he landed at a site where people do read studies, and they will challenge him.
Quoting 185. DeepSeaRising:

From CO2Science. www.co2science.org/articles/V6/N6/COM.php is the link to the paper I read on this.


Yawn

Here is a link to the explanation of the Ocean's Carbon Balance and I double dare everybody, because Oceanography isn't for the faint of heart, the mathematics are really "lovely". So if you wanna impress me with your new theory, show me the math. But if you are delusional enough to think you know it better than the scientists than knock yourself out. Of course you are nothing but a genius and there are no smarter men around. Double Yawn....
Quoting 197. SouthCentralTx:



Ah well, guess it's just buggy for the day. Doesn't even show the storms off to the west as severe. I'll use the SPC radar tonight. Good night!
Have a good and, hopefully, dry and safe night. It's gotten to the point I never use WU radar for anything breaking. NWS radar is a much more reliable source of graphic warnings.
Quoting 171. DeepSeaRising:



You know, that's fair enough. As I read that it was a real study you quoted in the very beginning and that there was more detail given by you than I could follow or verify, I did hesitate with my response based on my lack of knowledge. For that, you have my apologies.


For sure GT in #198. It was the non-verifiable he was stating earlier about so much beyond this cited paper from CO2Science that was very difficult if not impossible to follow. Big words, sound like a scientist, lots of fuzzys , impossible to verify. I felt bad, because I like to keep up and this lost me. But if that's his big ha ha got cha moment of the day, then it's got to be one really sad endeavor that this is what you do for big oil against the truth.
Quoting 200. ChrisHamburg:

Yawn

Here is a link to the explanation of the Ocean's Carbon Balance and I double dare everybody, because Oceanography isn't for the faint of heart, the mathematics are really "lovely". So if you wanna impress me with your new theory, show me the math. But if you are delusional enough to think you know it better than the scientists than knock yourself out. Of course you are nothing but a genius and there are no smarter men around. Double Yawn....

Your link is interesting, and it doesn't have much math in it. I bookmarked it and will read it later. Thanks!
Quoting 195. DeepSeaRising:



Of coarse. Why I said where I found it. After he had gone down the rabbit hole, I thought it was obvious that this is one troll who's earned his money today. We just don't understand his new science Sar. I get it.
Sorry, DSR, I didn't mean to come off like I was scolding you. My cookies really get frosted by guys like this and sites like CO2Science, which has nothing at all to do with science. They are knowingly perpetuating a fraud on every person that reads their claptrap in search of real answers. I doubt Doran is even some kind of paid troll, just a true believer, whose science train got derailed exactly because of sites like this. It's really sad.
Think about it. He was here for the day largely. He was focused. He stayed on one paper and then the long and drawn out tangent on it and so much more. He must have posted on this at least 25 times and only this. This is what a paid troll looks like.
Quoting 188. DeepSeaRising:

My point is even if this paper exists, it proves very little. So what if CO2 is taken out or not after a huge hurricane and then goes back in two weeks. This means nothing. It's cool they got to measure that, but why have we been talking about this all day? Please tell me Mr. Doran.


That IS a good point. There is an assertion that CO2 comes out of the ocean with the low and winds, and goes up into the clouds, and rises the ion levels inside the clouds above and beyond the ambient air levels of CO2 and what would be available to forming clouds without the decarbonation. The ion changes to the clouds is a known electro mechanical feature. The question then becomes empirical--what difference does this make with the behaviors of clouds?

For warmers something to chew on. The leading scientist Hanson in his last paper stated that he thought that the differences in warming between the northern and southern hemisphere in the MSU data was related to soot. The problem with that idea is the timing of the melting of the Arctic. If soot was the cause, again it would cause the warming to be expressed during the peak of luminosity in the northern hemisphere, not during the fall, when peak lightning occurs. So what I am pointing out is a mechanism related to clouds and then I am going to show mathematically correlations which are like a million to one, the example of the melting Arctic anomalies for instance when you have a 2 SD a 3 SD and a 2 SD anomalies year after year at the exact time of peak lightning and then when the currents go back to lower levels the warming goes away and the Arctic refreezes to the norm.
Last thought on this. He was careful to not take AGW on directly. He was very subtle and was here to muddle the science. And he has to know the truth. Money is more important.
Quoting 205. DeepSeaRising:

Think about it. He was here for the day largely. He was focused. He stayed on one paper and then the long and drawn out tangent on it and so much more. He must have posted on this at least 25 times and only this. This is what a paid troll looks like.


Not paid troll. Please apologize for that false statement.
Quoting 206. MichaelDoran:



That IS a good point. There is an assertion that CO2 comes out of the ocean with the low and winds, and goes up into the clouds, and rises the ion levels inside the clouds above and beyond the ambient air levels of CO2 and what would be available to forming clouds without the decarbonation. The ion changes to the clouds is a known electro mechanical feature. The question then becomes empirical--what difference does this make with the behaviors of clouds?

For warmers something to chew on. The leading scientist Hanson in his last paper stated that he thought that the differences in warming between the northern and southern hemisphere in the MSU data was related to soot. The problem with that idea is the timing of the melting of the Arctic. If soot was the cause, again it would cause the warming to be expressed during the peak of luminosity in the northern hemisphere, not during the fall, when peak lightning occurs. So what I am pointing out is a mechanism related to clouds and then I am going to show mathematically correlations which are like a million to one, the example of the melting Arctic anomalies for instance when you have a 2 SD a 3 SD and a 2 SD anomalies year after year at the exact time of peak lightning and then when the currents go back to lower levels the warming goes away and the Arctic refreezes to the norm.


Fair enough, I will look into that. :) Here's my question to you. Does this new phenomenon discovery explain what's happening to worldwide temperate rise or this an enhancement to AGW?
Quoting 208. MichaelDoran:



Not paid troll. Please apologize for that false statement.


Well with those here much smarter than I in the science, we shall see.
Quoting 207. DeepSeaRising:

Last thought on this. He was careful to not take AGW on directly. He was very subtle and was here to muddle the science. And he has to know the truth. Money is more important.


It was interesting to me to listen to read about Ted Cruz and his speech about his mathematician parents. link My opinion is Cruz is an incredibly dangerous and evil person, BUT he is taking advantage of the holes in the theories relating to CO2 based on the sole theory of green house gas heat trapping. The fascists in our country are indeed directly responsible for not taking their skepticism toward protecting the ecology from a different concern. At the same time the warmers are just as responsible for dogma.

Cruz's main point was the failure of the GCMs to predict the lull in warming since the last big El Nino. A CO2 electrical forcing has significant problem that as the oceans are capped with fresh water there are negative feedbacks--which explain lulls.
It is bad the soot. But yeah it's the CO2 that goes into the oceans primarily. And we've still had the two hottest years on record back to back. So yes, it the CO2, in the air, the oceans, the clouds, etc. I see the pole melt mechanism your referring to, but I'll have to look into that too. Are you saying this is what's causing GW? The poles and lightening regulate everything. No need to worry?
Quoting 203. BaltimoreBrian:


Your link is interesting, and it doesn't have much math in it. I bookmarked it and will read it later.


It is an internet explanation they drop the math mostly, the textbooks are a different story here, google Physical Oceanography. So if wind interacts with the upper layer of the ocean you get a boundary layer in the ocean with a depth of a few hundred meter, yeah they call it Ekman layer, too. And boundary layer mathematics is just "lovely". Head spinning stuff as far as I'm concerned, far above my pay grade. So every interaction with the ocean and the atmosphere is happing in two boundary layers, one atmospheric and one in the ocean. And add turbulence (hurricane) to the mix and the math gets really "interesting".
Do you believe that man is the driving force behind climate change? Will you answer that one?
No no, MD has already clarified his position with this comment here:

Quoting 206. MichaelDoran:



For warmers something to chew on.


What I suggest for you, MD, instead of trying to brute force the main blog with your theory, is to make a blog of your own. Present your case, with all of the relevant citations, with links, and tie it all together with your conclusion. Then come back here and say, "Ok everyone, it's all ready, come look at it." Then we can all go there and peruse the material and arguments, and have a discussion. I think that's perfectly reasonable, what do you say?
How about you answer my very to the point questions and then perhaps you'll be prepared to take a few questions from some of us based on your further disclosure of all this new information Mr. Doran.
Quoting 212. DeepSeaRising:

It is bad the soot. But yeah it's the CO2 that goes into the oceans primarily. And we've still had the two hottest years on record back to back. So yes, it the CO2, in the air, the oceans, the clouds, etc. I see the pole melt mechanism your referring to, but I'll have to look into that too. Are you saying this is what's causing GW? The poles and lightening regulate everything. No need to worry?


I am an alarmist, just I think cloud behaviors have an electrical complexity that involves CO2 more than just as a heat trapping feedback.
Quoting 214. DeepSeaRising:

Do you believe that man is the driving force behind climate change? Will you answer that one?


Yes.
A Deep Derp Watch is posted.
Quoting 211. MichaelDoran:
Where's the link to the "Bates, et al Harvard (2003)" study you've been citing all day today? Where's the link? No more ions in the clouds stuff, just provide the link to the study. Since you've been using it all day, you must have a link -- right?
Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.


Climate Monitoring
State of the Climate
Temp, Precip, and Drought
Climate at a Glance
Extremes
Societal Impacts
Snow and Ice
Teleconnections

How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming?

A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate. The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years.
These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences.
For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover.

These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations.



Quoting 213. ChrisHamburg:



It is an internet explanation they drop the math mostly, the textbooks are a different story here, google Physical Oceanography. So if wind interacts with the upper layer of the ocean you get a boundary layer in the ocean with a depth of a few hundred meter, yeah they call it Ekman layer, too. And boundary layer mathematics is just "lovely". Head spinning stuff as far as I'm concerned, far above my pay grade. So every interaction with the ocean and the atmosphere is happing in two boundary layers, one atmospheric and one in the ocean. And add turbulence (hurricane) to the mix and the math gets really "interesting".


I agree with this. The present theory in geophysics climate is ocean driven. But consider the Younger Dryas. The theory is, again state of the science, that an ice dam broke in front of the Great Lakes, and the water flowed east instead of to the Gulf of Mexico. This resulted in fresh water capping and 1,000 years of return to glacial levels of cold. So what caused this? The state of the science is that the fresh water capping caused the Gulf Stream to stop acting as a conveyor belt. Presently there are cold anomalies near Greenland which is clearly melting and fresh water capping that same region near the St. Lawrence river. We see cold SST anomalies in the region. But on the other side of it is the Gulf of Mexico. What happened when it lost water flowing down a grand Mississippi? What are the ELECTRICAL implications of that on CLOUDS. It goes back not to ocean but cloud behaviors ultimately driving climate, because as we see even now with the melting ice in Greenland it may slow warming down, cause lulls in the warming that Ted Cruz is talking about, but it's not ending the warming. What will end the warming are super storms, neo glacial storms that will kill or displace billions of people. It will be the end of civilization as we know it. So, no, I am not a fascist. I am not a warmer, but I am not a fake skeptic either. Climate change is real, but at the same time it's going to take real skepticism to take on these complex systems and describe how they behave and then we can react accordingly.
Thank you. So more than just a trapping mechanism is going on, I'm following along. Does this tie then into some larger story of what's going on with the climate? Seems innocent enough on it's face, but from the source, you can understand the incredulousness of some here including myself. And why is this such a passion of yours? All you've talked about, at length ya know. Looks suspicious.
Quoting 222. MichaelDoran:



I agree with this. The present theory in geophysics climate is ocean driven. But consider the Younger Dryas. The theory is, again state of the science, that an ice dam broke in front of the Great Lakes, and the water flowed east instead of to the Gulf of Mexico. This resulted in fresh water capping and 1,000 years of return to glacial levels of cold. So what caused this? The state of the science is that the fresh water capping caused the Gulf Stream to stop acting as a conveyor belt. Presently there are cold anomalies near Greenland which is clearly melting and fresh water capping that same region near the St. Lawrence river. We see cold SST anomalies in the region. But on the other side of it is the Gulf of Mexico. What happened when it lost water flowing down a grand Mississippi? What are the ELECTRICAL implications of that on CLOUDS. It goes back not to ocean but cloud behaviors ultimately driving climate, because as we see even now with the melting ice in Greenland it may slow warming down, cause lulls in the warming that Ted Cruz is talking about, but it's not ending the warming. What will end the warming are super storms, neo glacial storms that will kill or displace billions of people. It will be the end of civilization as we know it. So, no, I am not a fascist. I am not a warmer, but I am not a fake skeptic either. Climate change is real, but at the same time it's going to take real skepticism to take on these complex systems and describe how they behave and then we can react accordingly.


So now it's The Day After Tomorrow? What? So it's the clouds? Neo Glacial storms coming??? Come on man!
Quoting 223. DeepSeaRising:

Thank you. So more than just a trapping mechanism is going on, I'm following along. Does this tie then into some larger story of what's going on with the climate? Seems innocent enough on it's face, but from the source, you can understand the incredulousness of some here including myself. And why is this such a passion of yours? All you've talked about, at length ya know. Looks suspicious.


Was typing this as he posted the comment 222. Innocent enough on it's face would be removed. This is starting to get really silly, I'm going to recuse myself for awhile.
Last one and lurking for the night. Maybe we can stop the clouds. Hope rings eternal. Great sarcasm intended if your wondering Sar. :)
Actual graph of Arctic sea ice extent. It reaches it's lowest reading in the first week of September (late summer) because that's how long it takes for all the heat of the sun to accumulate in the ice and melt it. It reaches its maximum reading in the last week of February to the first week in March (late winter). That's how long it takes for the stored heat in the ice to dissipate and allow the maximum freezing during the Arctic winter. When it occurs is somewhat dependent on how cold it got during the winter and how much ice was still present at the beginning of winter. We don't need lightning or ions in the clouds to explain this. It's no different than why it isn't hottest at noon, a phenomena anyone with a claimed interest in meteorology should understand.

That's one nasty cell coming right at you. Hope this one doesn't bring tornadoes like the last one did.
Quoting 222. MichaelDoran:



I agree with this. The present theory in geophysics climate is ocean driven. But consider the Younger Dryas. The theory is, again state of the science, that an ice dam broke in front of the Great Lakes, and the water flowed east instead of to the Gulf of Mexico. This resulted in fresh water capping and 1,000 years of return to glacial levels of cold. So what caused this?
It states no such thing. Lake Agassiz was the lake in question , very much larger than the Great Lakes, and larger than any lake on earth today. Lake Agassiz had several drainage events between 13,000 and 8,400 years ago. Some of the drainage went to the Gulf of Mexico, some went northeast to the Arctic Ocean, and some went east to the Atlantic, depending on how much isostatic rebound occured and where channels opened up. The MIssissippi never flowed back into Lake Agassiz. What caused this? It got progressively warmer, some of the ice dam melted, it got progressively colder, and the ice front rebuilt. This happened at least five times, with the last phase having several catastrophic releases of cold fresh water that went into today's Hudson Bay, causing global cooling, or at least cooling the northern hemisphere. All of this is explainable with the physics we understand today. You have totally muddled these events, and then use clouds and ions to explain it. It's simply not true.
Well, it was an interesting thought though. Who knows, one day it might be important!

Quoting 193. DeepSeaRising:



Drop that knowledge then Sar.
Doubt anyone's here now, but can someone explain to me the cause of the cool pool south of Greenland that's been there for some time now? Is it melt runoff? Gulfstream slowing? Jetstream patterns? If I remember correctly, it was present in 2014 as well. Just seems interesting to me.

Quoting 232. GatorWX:

Doubt anyone's here now, but can someone explain to me the cause of the cool pool south of Greenland that's been there for some time now? Is it melt runoff? Gulfstream slowing? Jetstream patterns? If I remember correctly, it was present in 2014 as well. Just seems interesting to me.




Melt off but not yet enough to slow down the Gulf Stream. Desalination of Get Stream to an extent we'd see majors changes is far off. Look at the Gulf Stream in the Northwest Atlantic, SST's off the chart. But that has been a below average SST for awhile now from the increased melt off by Greenland.
Quoting 233. DeepSeaRising:



Melt off but not yet enough to slow down the Gulf Stream. Desalination of Get Stream to an extent we'd see majors changes is far off. Look at the Gulf Stream in the Northwest Atlantic, SST's off the chart. But that has been a below average SST for awhile now from the increased melt off by Greenland.


It's uh, quite a player in the weather patterns across North America and Europe. It seems to me. Along with the warm pool that's been persistently south of AK.
Interesting thought. Been here since Wednesday, sounds very much how a polished politician would talk about climate change.
Quoting 222. MichaelDoran:



I agree with this. The present theory in geophysics climate is ocean driven. But consider the Younger Dryas. The theory is, again state of the science, that an ice dam broke in front of the Great Lakes, and the water flowed east instead of to the Gulf of Mexico. This resulted in fresh water capping and 1,000 years of return to glacial levels of cold. So what caused this? The state of the science is that the fresh water capping caused the Gulf Stream to stop acting as a conveyor belt. Presently there are cold anomalies near Greenland which is clearly melting and fresh water capping that same region near the St. Lawrence river. We see cold SST anomalies in the region. But on the other side of it is the Gulf of Mexico. What happened when it lost water flowing down a grand Mississippi? What are the ELECTRICAL implications of that on CLOUDS. It goes back not to ocean but cloud behaviors ultimately driving climate, because as we see even now with the melting ice in Greenland it may slow warming down, cause lulls in the warming that Ted Cruz is talking about, but it's not ending the warming. What will end the warming are super storms, neo glacial storms that will kill or displace billions of people. It will be the end of civilization as we know it. So, no, I am not a fascist. I am not a warmer, but I am not a fake skeptic either. Climate change is real, but at the same time it's going to take real skepticism to take on these complex systems and describe how they behave and then we can react accordingly.


"Climate change is real, but at the same time it's going to take real skepticism to take on these complex systems and describe how they behave and then we can react accordingly." Sounds exactly like what Mr. Ted Cruz would say to a tee. Wonder if he's been using WU as a training ground for his responses.
Quoting 234. GatorWX:



It's uh, quite a player in the weather patterns across North America and Europe. It seems to me. Along with the warm pool that's been persistently south of AK.


Spring temps in Alaska were wild this year. Sierra Nevada's get some early snow, may set up to be a raucous November and December for y'all in the Gulf and Florida. This El-Nino is going as scripted (AGWenhancedthough) for the heavy rains it usually brings for the Gulf states, Texas, and Florida. From what we've seen, we should expect some large events through late fall and early winter. Maybe one above average severe weather outbreak in the next sixty days though the region is not out of the question.
Quoting 230. sar2401:

It states no such thing. Lake Agassiz was the lake in question , very much larger than the Great Lakes, and larger than any lake on earth today. Lake Agassiz had several drainage events between 13,000 and 8,400 years ago. Some of the drainage went to the Gulf of Mexico, some went northeast to the Arctic Ocean, and some went east to the Atlantic, depending on how much isostatic rebound occured and where channels opened up. The MIssissippi never flowed back into Lake Agassiz. What caused this? It got progressively warmer, some of the ice dam melted, it got progressively colder, and the ice front rebuilt. This happened at least five times, with the last phase having several catastrophic releases of cold fresh water that went into today's Hudson Bay, causing global cooling, or at least cooling the northern hemisphere. All of this is explainable with the physics we understand today. You have totally muddled these events, and then use clouds and ions to explain it. It's simply not true.


Truth is then subjective between us. However I think I am objectively correct and the state of the science is flawed-- read carefully again what I wrote. If water is flowing south down the Minnesota River from that giant lake ultimately to the Mississippi then to the Gulf but then flowed east it necessarily didn't flow south anymore. And the point is there is no fresh water capping that applies in the Gulf of Mexico because salt water sinking isn't going to drive a conveyor belt there north--the Gulf contains currents going north. So there are TWO parts to the problem. It is NOT explainable by physics. Or minimally there remains a problem of an electrical complexity.
Quoting 224. DeepSeaRising:



So now it's The Day After Tomorrow? What? So it's the clouds? Neo Glacial storms coming??? Come on man!
Oh, man. We have this female blonde lab 12 week old puppy we're keeping over the weekend, and then we have to drive her north to Ohio on Monday. She's going to live with Karen's sister. Thanks Goodness. She's a cute little dog, but she's driving Radar Dog and the three cats into a tizzy. I finally had to put her in her crate and then calm her down after all the crying and carrying on. Geez, I hope I actually get some sleep tonight. Karen is sleeping like a baby through all this.

DSR, it always comes down to the Day After Tomorrow with this bunch. Ted Cruz had parents that were mathematicians. I'm going to stay at a Holiday Inn Express on my visit to Ohio. Both non sequiturs and meaningless in a debate. If the Ted Cruz card doesn't work, it's neoglacial storms. Billions will die. But at least I'm not a fascist, or a warmer. Just a "real" skeptic.

The puppy crying and carrying on makes more sense. :-)
Quoting 223. DeepSeaRising:

Thank you. So more than just a trapping mechanism is going on, I'm following along. Does this tie then into some larger story of what's going on with the climate? Seems innocent enough on it's face, but from the source, you can understand the incredulousness of some here including myself. And why is this such a passion of yours? All you've talked about, at length ya know. Looks suspicious.


Of course. Also if you step back there is another huge problem with mechanism of GHG compared to an electrical one.

That is, again, I view the climate system as BOTH electrical AND biological.

The GHG theory fails miserably with respect to the latter.

During the 80s this question was vetted thru Lovelock and his daisy land theory. He postulated that the earth was like a giant flower and when it got too hot the petals changed white and when it got too cold the petals turned black. The driving GHG theory at the time was suggested as the way this occurred. His model was crucified in the academic community simply because GHGs enter the atmosphere and/or leave the atmosphere too slowly to be an effective feedback loop mechanism. When something burns carbon into the active biosphere it can take 600 years for it to be taken out of the active biosphere by the carbon cycle. This is not a way for feedbacks to occur.

But an electrical forcing on cloud behaviors is a much different mechanism especially in terms of speed and river behaviors then can wash back into the oceans living chemistry.

This leaves the final question of intelligent design. The problem is daisy land would then require an intelligence to change colors of the petals.

Even if you could suggest that life did this, it also leaves another very difficult problem, the who designed the designer question. Clearly a green house gas theory won't work with such a precision required to design a designer.

This is where I have come up with cloud sorting nucleotide complexes. Nucleotides in clouds IN ELECTRICAL fields would move depending on the nucleotide complex size, shape, charge or mass. Those movements would then define condensation rates on forming clouds in a calculated manner. The nucleotides acted as both a collective model of climate and could at the same time actuate a feedback.

The next problem associated with this is metabolism. In other works, how do you get to the thermodynamics of life. You have a nucleotide but it doesn't have energy to do anything.

This is where all life has carbon, specifically having to do with metabolism. And given a mechanism of surface lows on the oceans which decarbonate the oceans and have electrical significance, you can see how a symbiotic relationship between calculating naked nucleotide complexes arose with carbon and metabolism, which then in a calculated manner became more complex. So there really wasn't a first life in terms of a first individual organism, there was a super organism that came first. Individual life forms are sub sets of the first one, climate related.

There are reasons someone like Ted Cruz opposes climate change for religious reasons.

Quoting 227. sar2401:

Actual graph of Arctic sea ice extent. It reaches it's lowest reading in the first week of September (late summer) because that's how long it takes for all the heat of the sun to accumulate in the ice and melt it. It reaches its maximum reading in the last week of February to the first week in March (late winter). That's how long it takes for the stored heat in the ice to dissipate and allow the maximum freezing during the Arctic winter. When it occurs is somewhat dependent on how cold it got during the winter and how much ice was still present at the beginning of winter. We don't need lightning or ions in the clouds to explain this. It's no different than why it isn't hottest at noon, a phenomena anyone with a claimed interest in meteorology should understand.




There is some background here I think is important. Last year this graph was switched from a 20 year mean to a 30 year mean:
Ice Sheet Anomalies

The million to one odds I was discussing was from the 20 year mean. What it showed is during peak lightning the anomalies appeared 3 SD, 2, and 2. The math comes out 1 in a million. Switching to 30 years, the mean is corrupted by the already forced years so it doesn't come out as extreme, but the point remains, and is not to be confused with when the melting occurs, because the refreezing should slow down. Some of that is starting to occur with the volume of the ice sheet getting smaller and it isn't showing up like it did.
Quoting 237. MichaelDoran:



Truth is then subjective between us. However I think I am objectively correct and the state of the science is flawed-- read carefully again what I wrote. If water is flowing south down the Minnesota River from that giant lake ultimately to the Mississippi then to the Gulf but then flowed east it necessarily didn't flow south anymore. And the point is there is no fresh water capping that applies in the Gulf of Mexico because salt water sinking isn't going to drive a conveyor belt there north--the Gulf contains currents going north. So there are TWO parts to the problem. It is NOT explainable by physics. Or minimally there remains a problem of an electrical complexity.
Do you have a puppy keeping you up too?

It didn't flow east from the Gulf. Water from the Atlantic flowed west into the lake basins immediately to the south of Lake Agassiz. When sufficient melting of the glaciers took place to fill Lake Agassiz, then the flow was east. There's now not much evidence of an overwhelming cold water inflow in the Gulf Stream from any source. Don't take my word for it though. There are actual scientists that have studied this, and their theory is here. You'll note there's no mention of electrical complexity in their studies.
Quoting 240. MichaelDoran:



There is some background here I think is important. Last year this graph was switched from a 20 year mean to a 30 year mean:
Ice Sheet Anomalies

The million to one odds I was discussing was from the 20 year mean. What it showed is during peak lightning the anomalies appeared 3 SD, 2, and 2. The math comes out 1 in a million. Switching to 30 years, the mean is corrupted by the already forced years so it doesn't come out as extreme, but the point remains, and is not to be confused with when the melting occurs, because the refreezing should slow down. Some of that is starting to occur with the volume of the ice sheet getting smaller and it isn't showing up like it did.
What??? Do you think my graph and the one you posted are related? One is sea ice extent by month. I don't have a clue what you're trying to show. See, you just keep moving the goalposts, bringing up some new point that had nothing to do with what I wrote. It's an old trick, and I'm done playing until ---

Where's the link, Dolan? Where's the link to the "Bates, et al Harvard (2003)" that's apparently the crux of your whole theory? I've asked you three times now, and you've failed to provide it three times.

My only response to you will be to ask you for the link again. Give me the link, Doran. If you can't, your whole house of cards comes crashing down.
# 239


Base Radial Velocity .50 degree elevation



#239 Do you feel better getting all that out. Never said I didn't think you were very smart Ted. One can be Christian and believe the science behind AGW. In no way can you say, I can't believe in creation and AGW they war with each other's truth. Just patently false. Have a great trip Sar.
And a note on the Right hijacking of Christianity to further there anti AGW agenda. Are we as Christians to ignore the glaringly obvious now because perhaps we believe in Creation? By no means. Look at Somalia, Southeast Asia, Texas again, remember people dying in their tornado shelter because they drowned in Oklahoma in the Spring, how bout South Carolina, and everywhere else around the world that is not normal. Signs, signs, everywhere there's signs.
Austin getting it bad again rain wise and San Antonio getting drilled with early morning severe storms.
70 mph winds, large hail, and torrential rain in San Antonio. Austin getting more heavy rain. Looks like tomorrow is going to be wild further east. It's not over in Texas yet. Final numbers are going to be impressive. Prayers for Texas.
Russian passenger plane crashes in Sinai, Egypt Prime Minister says

224 aboard. Weather was fair with no sand/dust storms. Too early to say what caused it. But you don't make hundreds of bombing raids in Syria without making a few enemies.
Quoting 213. ChrisHamburg:

It is an internet explanation they drop the math mostly, the textbooks are a different story here, google Physical Oceanography. So if wind interacts with the upper layer of the ocean you get a boundary layer in the ocean with a depth of a few hundred meter, yeah they call it Ekman layer, too. And boundary layer mathematics is just "lovely". Head spinning stuff as far as I'm concerned, far above my pay grade. So every interaction with the ocean and the atmosphere is happening in two boundary layers, one atmospheric and one in the ocean. And add turbulence (hurricane) to the mix and the math gets really "interesting".
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 255 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS
ROTATING CELLS MOVE INLAND FROM THE GULF...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS
PERSIST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ALREADY INLAND.
SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905 FOR METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF ANGLETON TEXAS
TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21025.


...EDWARDS
\



FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...TAPPING INTO AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS...AND
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA THROUGH THE DAY.
AREAL AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
GROUND STILL FAIRLY WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL...RUNOFF FROM THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.


Technician catches breathtaking, damaging lightning strike on video
Posted: Oct 31, 2015 10:35 AM
BROWNSVILLE, TX (NWS/CNN) - A dramatic lightning strike was caught on camera by a National Weather Service technician on Friday.
In Brownsville, TX, the technician was filming a storm when he caught a bright burst of lightning striking some of the radar equipment outside the facility.
Unfortunately, the lightning damaged the radar equipment during a flash flooding situation, but the resulting film is breathtaking.


Texas buffeted by rain, storms and suspected tornado near San Antonio
The Guardian, Saturday 31 October 2015 02.45 GMT
A trailer from an RV park was whirled on to the roof of a Holiday Inn, buildings were shredded and more than a foot of rain drenched Austin as storms hammered Texas on Friday, killing at least two people. ...


Quoting 242. sar2401:

What??? Do you think my graph and the one you posted are related? One is sea ice extent by month. I don't have a clue what you're trying to show. See, you just keep moving the goalposts, bringing up some new point that had nothing to do with what I wrote. It's an old trick, and I'm done playing until ---

Where's the link, Dolan? Where's the link to the "Bates, et al Harvard (2003)" that's apparently the crux of your whole theory? I've asked you three times now, and you've failed to provide it three times.

My only response to you will be to ask you for the link again. Give me the link, Dolan. If you can't, your whole house of cards comes crashing down.


I am not sure where it was published in 2003 but looks like it made a letter to Nature: Link


Chapala further weakening? At least COTC (U.S. Navy COAMPS-TC Model Forecast) gives the system another shot to reach CAT 5 strength:



Have a good morning, everyone.

Quoting 250. BaltimoreBrian:




Let's assume for a moment that it's far above anyone's pay grade. But at the same time let's also assume that the earth has maintained it's stable temperature and chemistry over huge timescales. It makes some sense to kind of turn it on the head and talk about with all these different inputs into the climate system, be it from the sun, from orbits, from gravity changes especially between the sun and moon, from space--that despite all these inputs that climate is within a range that still supports life, that life itself has found a way to keep those parameters.

That's where my assumptions are. Every mathematical, logical construct begins with some assumptions. My assumptions are in the fact that in order to SOLVE a problem as complex as the earth climate system you would have to have a MODEL to know exactly what climate 'IS', then a way to do something about it, which would be a feedback. This is why I talk about cloud sorting of nucleotide complexes. In order for that to occur, just like electrophoresis, where you have to have a cathode and anode to sort the nucleotides through a gel, you have to have static fields to move a nucleotide complex in a cloud droplet in order for it to sort out calculative values by their size, mass, charge and shape.

This sounds like a crazy supposition until you start talking about such things as Carl Sagan's mystery of an ever luminous sun. Sagan wrote an essay about our sun. He assumed that our sun was like any other star, and moving toward a red giant. And so as the processes inside the sun have changed over time, it becomes and it has become more luminous. Maybe not climate shattering on shorter time scales, but since life first appeared on this planet, the sun has become about 25 percent more energetic. The question then becomes, why are we not a giant gas ball right now compared to then? Or why was climate not a giant ice ball then--when geological evidence of flowing water is overwhelming? Mmmm? What's different about the earth now?

The answer is the oceans have become more saline. One example proving this is our own blood. When we crawled out of the oceans the oceans were less saline, and consequently so is our plasma. What does salinity levels mean for climate? The more saline the oceans, the more CONDUCTIVE they become, and the cooler the planet is maintained. Such changes in salinity did not occur overnight, but rather were part of ongoing modulations by rivers by life to maintain climate stability and earth chemistry.

Talk about magic? To think that a system of climate and LIFE itself just came by random chance overnight is indeed religion. There had to be a process, and most importantly for this discussion, a FORCING that was fast enough to provide feedbacks to keep the climate in a range to support life and feedbacks to maintain chemistry of life.
a couple people died from the severe flooding but something much worse is happening all over florida. "The number of people dying from heroin-related overdoses hit double digit increases in one year in many parts of Central Florida" i heard over 400 people just last yr died in orlando from o.d.... its alot to do with the govt shutting down those pill stores so instead of pills the users are using heroin which is much cheaper and even more dangerous. i dont think central florida is alone with this terrible problem. its happening all over the usa
Quoting 259. islander101010:

a couple people died from the severe flooding but something much worse is happening all over florida. The number of people dying from heroin-related overdoses hit double digit increases in one year in many parts of Central Florida

...not to mention gunshot deaths... We cannot regulate the weather, other than long term trying to reduce our carbon footprint, but there are things we can directly do something about. Just sayin.
Two people drowning in flash flooding is two people too many. Safety and Prevention is what we're all about here at WU and for many of us this is also part of our jobs.
Good Morning. Tonight's forecast:
Good morning, been bone dry lately here on the Space Coast, waiting for El-Nino to kick-in the rains.
Quoting 236. DeepSeaRising:



Spring temps in Alaska were wild this year. Sierra Nevada's get some early snow, may set up to be a raucous November and December for y'all in the Gulf and Florida. This El-Nino is going as scripted (AGWenhancedthough) for the heavy rains it usually brings for the Gulf states, Texas, and Florida. From what we've seen, we should expect some large events through late fall and early winter. Maybe one above average severe weather outbreak in the next sixty days though the region is not out of the question.
Quoting 258. pcola57:







I couldn't agree with you more.
Quoting 266. Grothar:

I couldn't agree with you more.

Eh, a bit nihilistic this morning, Gro? :-)

Sideglance to Europe: Sling of the jetstream is about to create a cut-off off the Atlantic coast of Iberia/Northwestern Africa with quite a bit rain in the offing for our PlazaRed later on. An then there is the "usual" bad weather circulation over Sicily. Estofex: "The stationary cut-off low over Sicily creates steep lapse rates over the warm Mediterranean Sea and some hundreds of CAPE are developed. We expect excessive rainfall over Malta, West Sicily and Calabria regions by marginal convective cells, especially the second half of Saturday."



Jetstream:



268. beell
Just another Saturday on the east side of Houston, another 8-9" of rain. Yawn...
269. beell
Quoting 266. Grothar:




I couldn't agree with you more.


I can and will agree with him more.
Quoting 252. Chicklit:

\






We've had close to 3 inches so far. Fort Polk has issued military and civilian vehicles are to stay off roads due to flooding. 171 is going under water and in some spots is already flooded and closed.
Quoting 239. MichaelDoran:

[snip]
So to condense summarize your many points:

1) Climate change theory as it stands--that is, that man's ongoing release into the atmosphere of long-sequestered heat-trapping carbon is causing the earth's surface to warm--is completely wrong; any observed climatic changes can be better explained through decarbonation caused by clouds and lightning and hurricanes and sometimes man-made dams. Or something.

2) Evolutionary theory is complete bunk. Instead of the long-established idea that life has evolved through well-described and tested Darwinian mechanisms, you believe that Earth's simplest and earliest life forms grew from from an original and intelligent "super organism", helped along with lightning-based sorting of cloud-borne nucleotides.

3) Most scientists wouldn't know their heads from a hole in the ground; it requires someone not "restrained by his ken"--that is, all the things man has learned about the natural sciences over many centuries of study--to properly analyze the situation and compose theories that make sense. That is, someone like you. Someone *just* like you. In fact, you. Period.

4) Charles Chandler is someone we should listen to, despite--or perhaps because of--his nonsensical and anti-semitic belief that the 9/11 hijackers were Israeli agents.

My question to you, then: why not write all this up and submit it for peer review? (And please don't say that "the establishment" would consider you a threat and thus ignore you; we've all seen papers outlining highly disruptive ideas published.) I'm afraid that until you do in fact publish your many ideas, those ideas will be consigned to the margins--and so will you.
Quoting 239. MichaelDoran:

There are reasons someone like Ted Cruz opposes climate change for religious reasons.
Yes. Here's one: he has no more than a kindergartner's familiarity with science, having been indoctrinated at a young age with myths and fables compiled by superstitious and ignorant sheepherders who lived a few millennia ago. Here's another: he's beholden to the deep-pocketed fossil fuel interests that have funded him...
Quoting 255. MichaelDoran:



I am not sure where it was published in 2003 but looks like it made a letter to Nature: Link
What??? That's the original Bates letter to Nature in 1998. NIcholas Bates is a professor at Southampton University in England. He's based at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Science. He's never been with Harvard. You never actually read the study associated with that letter, did you? You copied that "Bates, et al Harvard (2003)" off some other web site, and you've been dragging it around with you ever since. Bates never claimed that Hurricane Felix caused the carbonation of the ocean to decrease by one-third. If you'd have actually read the study instead of what some other wingnut at a denier web site said, you'd know that to be the case. You're a fraud, Doran, and you know it.
Persistent, isn't it?
DNFTT everyone.
Ever notice how, right when climate change is in-your-face obvious, along come not only the usual flat-out denialists but HAARP-ists and Electric Universe types? the shtick may vary but the punchline is always, tellingly, the same : "it isn't us".
274. etxwx
We've had 3.87 inches since midnight here in northern Jasper Co. East Texas. My weather station recorded a maximum rate of 10.87 inches per hour at 8:27am. Lasted about 5 minutes at that rate.
The cows must think they are in the car wash.
We missed the worst of it, there is a tornado warning for Newton County which is east of us.
Stay safe out there!
I think, unscientifically, that the pace of the consequences of global warming are going to greatly increase in pace. like a pot of water that goes from no boil to a sudden rolling boil. Its all doom and gloom but there is no way to reverse the trend. unless we park every car and close every carbon emitting factory. immediately
"Antarctic ice sheet increasing in mass, not decreasing:" - NASA spox.

http://phys.org/news/2015-10-mass-gains-antarctic -ice-sheet.html


"The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away," Zwally said. "But this is also bad news. If the 0.27 millimeters per year of sea level rise attributed to Antarctica in the IPCC report is not really coming from Antarctica, there must be some other contribution to sea level rise that is not accounted for."

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-10-mass-gains-antarctic- ice-sheet.html#jCp


I vote for outer space, "

Cometary debris and other forms of space dust not of the "rocky" variety, and ranging from microscopic to the size of so-called "Megacryometeors" (chunks of ice falling out of the sky which are too big to be explained by Hail,) could be a contributing factor, because they are large enough to add up over a year, but small enough to individually sneak in under the radars...

That's my "theory", and it's as good as anyone's, I've already got circumstantial evidence, provided by the Weather Channel, of all places.


There's not that much ice remaining on the Planet, and if you back that calculation out, it means you need a DIFFERENT source of about a half millimeter per year: 0.27 plus 0.23 = 0.5.
House Science Committee on Hidden Camera

A hidden camera recording of the US House Science Committee has come to light thanks to a whistle blower.

278. etxwx
Quoting 273. no1der:

Persistent, isn't it?
DNFTT everyone.
Ever notice how, right when climate change is in-your-face obvious, along come not only the usual flat-out denialists but HAARP-ists and Electric Universe types? the shtick may vary but the punchline is always, tellingly, the same : "it isn't us".


It is getting ridiculous isn't it? Every time a blog post recognizes records being broken (happening quite often recently) the comments section turns a little ridiculous. In this instance first the most common definition of the word history is ignored (denied?), then the pseudo-science. All we missed this time is giant conspiracy and Al Gore.
Quote of the day:

dogbert5 / 5 (1) 1 hour ago
Everything is not a conspiracy - despite your need to make it so.


I did not say there was a conspiracy involved. I said that it seems that good news about climate change has to be down played. The fact that people studying climate change see everything in the worst light is not a conspiracy. It is sad that people generally find what they want to find and when they don't find what they want to find, they rationalize the results toward what they want to find.

Human nature can be a (censored)


Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-10-mass-gains-antarctic- ice-sheet.html#jCp
Quoting 279. wartsttocs:



It is getting ridiculous isn't it? Every time a blog post recognizes records being broken (happening quite often recently) the comments section turns a little ridiculous. In this instance first the most common definition of the word history is ignored (denied?), then the pseudo-science. All we missed this time is giant conspiracy and Al Gore.


I'll have you know that Al Gore bought a beachfront house, which proves he doesn't believe in sea level rise. Perhaps the number one contender for the most irrational denier mantra, that one.
Heavy rainfall in Texas could conceivably once again be a headline again next weekend.



Not bad amounts for a 5-7 day forecast with the event possibly ongoing.
Quoting 276. IndividualThinker2:

"Antarctic ice sheet increasing in mass, not decreasing:" - NASA spox.

http://phys.org/news/2015-10-mass-gains-antarctic -ice-sheet.html


"The good news is that Antarctica is not currently contributing to sea level rise, but is taking 0.23 millimeters per year away," Zwally said. "But this is also bad news. If the 0.27 millimeters per year of sea level rise attributed to Antarctica in the IPCC report is not really coming from Antarctica, there must be some other contribution to sea level rise that is not accounted for."

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-10-mass-gains-antarctic- ice-sheet.html#jCp


I vote for outer space, "

Cometary debris and other forms of space dust not of the "rocky" variety, and ranging from microscopic to the size of so-called "Megacryometeors" (chunks of ice falling out of the sky which are too big to be explained by Hail,) could be a contributing factor, because they are large enough to add up over a year, but small enough to individually sneak in under the radars...

That's my "theory", and it's as good as anyone's, I've already got circumstantial evidence, provided by the Weather Channel, of all places.


There's not that much ice remaining on the Planet, and if you back that calculation out, it means you need a DIFFERENT source of about a half millimeter per year: 0.27 plus 0.23 = 0.5.
So observed sea level rise is coming from stealthy ice balls from space?

Not likely.

It is believed that any so-called "megacryometeors" come from the upper atmosphere, not from BEYOND, which rules out a cosmic origin. On the other hand, No, it's pretty well established that observed sea level rise is coming primarily from two sources:

1) Melting glacial and polar ice (Greenland); and...

2) Expansion of oceanic waters as they warm.

Of course, parts of Antarctica that are seeing ice growth are seeing it because of increased snowfall, which is itself being caused by a warmer atmosphere. And as the article to which you linked states, other parts of Antarctica are indeed seeing increasing ice loss, and that loss is expected to more than compensate for expanding ice elsewhere on the continent.

For the record, while the space-based iceballs might indeed be your "theory", it's definitely *not* as good as anyone's...
Quoting MichaelDoran:




Quoting 277. Xandra:



Nice.
Man some crazy rain and wind going in my suburb right now! I am grateful for the rain though a surplus is better than a drought anyday. Tornado warning this morning woke me up but nothing happened on my side of town just windy from what I could see with no contacts in at 5AM ish in the morning. Tornado did flip over a mobile home in the town south of me and a lady and a puppy were rescued. Stay safe y'all!
Chapala may be strengthening again:



Eye becoming better defined and the overall cloud pattern becoming more symmetrical.
Quoting 284. Neapolitan:

So observed sea level rise is coming from stealthy ice balls from space?

Not likely.

It is believed that any so-called "megacryometeors" come from the upper atmosphere, not from BEYOND, which rules out a cosmic origin. On the other hand, No, it's pretty well established that observed sea level rise is coming primarily from two sources:

1) Melting glacial and polar ice (Greenland); and...

2) Expansion of oceanic waters as they warm.

Of course, parts of Antarctica that are seeing ice growth are seeing it because of increased snowfall, which is itself being caused by a warmer atmosphere. And as the article to which you linked states, other parts of Antarctica are indeed seeing increasing ice loss, and that loss is expected to more than compensate for expanding ice elsewhere on the continent.

For the record, while the space-based iceballs might indeed be your "theory", it's definitely *not* as good as anyone's...

Nea, you are no fun at all. Thus science stuff is all very well, but the image of alien space bats flinging icebergs toward the earth is much more entertaining.

And god knows, with the shape this planet is in, we could use some entertainment.
Affected Population keeps expanding, 4,461,898


For the record, while the space-based iceballs might indeed be your "theory", it's definitely *not* as good as anyone's...



Says you...

Says NASA:

There is now a 0.5mm per year rise which is unaccounted for.

Did you read that?

Not thermal expansion, and not known ice melt.

Unaccounted for.

must be some other contribution to sea level rise that is not accounted for."


So no, you are quite wrong.

A random guess is literally as good as anyone's theory right now.


Oh there are other sensible theories, and I never claimed it was "all" coming from outer space.

Some things that come to mind:

1) Mass balance discrepancy in erosion vs continent/mountain building.

2) Uplift of an oceanic plate would displace water, and we don't have anywhere near enough lasers or sonar or other instruments tracking every square kilometer of the ocean floor to rule this out.

Granted this second possibility would only be sustainable for a finite time, as it would likely stress a subduction zone somewhere else and then be released.

3) Ground Water from Irrigation Wells:
Nobody actually measures this individually, much less collectively. They just drill wells and spew the water as much as they like. the Ground Penetrating Radar data shows the land in California, India, and other regions sinking and losing overall moisture content due to water loss from over-irrigation from wells.


4) Hubble Expansion of the Universe
At 72km/s/megaparsec, and converted to the radius of the Earth, it would predict that the Earth should be expanding in radius by 0.44mm per year.

Maybe water expands faster than rock because it's lighter? Who knows. It's a strange coincidence that the calculation works out to almost exactly the discrepancy. This seems unlikely, because Gravity is thought to overcome this locally, but maybe the expansion is not understood properly.

By the way, this also would explain about 1 inch per year worth of the Moon's recession away from Earth, and the remainder would be explained by tidal forces (at least apparently).
Jesus now they lobbing Purple Triangles at us too!!!

My Lord save us from these Polygons!!!






A DEEP DERP WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE MAIN BLOG


If this study turns out to be correct then it is really bad news. Unless the unaccounted for source .5mm rise per year is something that drops to zero it will be additional to the rise from Antarctica in the future.
From the article:
But it might only take a few decades for Antarctica's growth to reverse, according to Zwally. "If the losses of the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica continue to increase at the same rate they've been increasing for the last two decades, the losses will catch up with the long-term gain in East Antarctica in 20 or 30 years%u2014I don't think there will be enough snowfall increase to offset these losses."

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-10-mass-gains-antarctic- ice-sheet.html#jCp
The "spaceball theory" is not a scientific theory, but just a guess. That is how science works, hypothesis first, then scientific method, then theory, but only if it is supported by evidence.
My guess is that if the study is corrected and .5mm per year of sea level is unaccounted for it is most likely coming from an underestimate of rise from other sources of melting ice and/or thermal expansion and not spaceballs. Then we have to understand what flaw in the methodology is underestimating sea level rise from sources other than Antarctic ice mass loss. The answer may be alarming if all this pans out.
Link
Quoting 292. IndividualThinker2:



Says you...

Says NASA:

There is now a 0.5mm per year rise which is unaccounted for.

Did you read that?

Not thermal expansion, and not known ice melt.

Unaccounted for.

must be some other contribution to sea level rise that is not accounted for."


So no, you are quite wrong.

A random guess is literally as good as anyone's theory right now.


Oh there are other sensible theories, and I never claimed it was "all" coming from outer space.

Some things that come to mind:

1) Mass balance discrepancy in erosion vs continent/mountain building.

2) Uplift of an oceanic plate would displace water, and we don't have anywhere near enough lasers or sonar or other instruments tracking every square kilometer of the ocean floor to rule this out.

Granted this second possibility would only be sustainable for a finite time, as it would likely stress a subduction zone somewhere else and then be released.

3) Ground Water from Irrigation Wells:
Nobody actually measures this individually, much less collectively. They just drill wells and spew the water as much as they like. the Ground Penetrating Radar data shows the land in California, India, and other regions sinking and losing overall moisture content due to water loss from over-irrigation from wells.


4) Hubble Expansion of the Universe
At 72km/s/megaparsec, and converted to the radius of the Earth, it would predict that the Earth should be expanding in radius by 0.44mm per year.

Maybe water expands faster than rock because it's lighter? Who knows. It's a strange coincidence that the calculation works out to almost exactly the discrepancy. This seems unlikely, because Gravity is thought to overcome this locally, but maybe the expansion is not understood properly.

By the way, this also would explain about 1 inch per year worth of the Moon's recession away from Earth, and the remainder would be explained by tidal forces (at least apparently).


Or, and I'm going out on a limb here, but the brand new study that comes to a different conclusion than the previous studies should be taken not as the end all truth, but another piece of the puzzle which suggests that data or a methodological concern may also be likely culprits. Always be careful of one study syndrome which you seem to be falling face first into.
Quoting 289. Envoirment:

Chapala may be strengthening again:



Eye becoming better defined and the overall cloud pattern becoming more symmetrical.


It certainly looks that way to me and let's hope for the sake of those in its path it doesn't strengthen much, much more and weakens quickly in the next couple days.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1023 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 955 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 929 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 918 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 911 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 847 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 846 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 833 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
TORNADO WARNING     HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 816 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 812 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 749 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 728 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 724 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

IndividualThinker2~ Grace satellite measures groundwater. They've been watching it being used up at alarming rates worldwide. Here's some articles. It also detects small changes in the height of the ocean floor daily. Click pic to read about it.
Happy Halloween everyone! Have a safe and fun time trick or treating and remember to set the clocks back 1 hour tonight, unless you live in Arizona (except for the Navajo Nation, which does observe daylight saving time), Hawaii, and the overseas territories of American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands, and also remember to replace the batteries in your smoke detectors and weather radios.

Link



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 OCT 2015 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 13:45:01 N Lon : 57:36:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 950.6mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -12.4C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 111km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.1 degrees

************************************************* ***



That was weird, opened up my bookmarked WU just now and it had me signed into an unverified account with a rather Hindi looking handle.. has someone been messing in my cookie jar???
Quoting 270. aislinnpaps:



We've had close to 3 inches so far. Fort Polk has issued military and civilian vehicles are to stay off roads due to flooding. 171 is going under water and in some spots is already flooded and closed.
Man, Texas seems to be getting it on the chin - again. I can only hope some of that rain works its way over this way in the next two days. The WPC contour chart is showing about four inches for a small section of central Alabama. Unfortunately, it tails off rapidly over SE Alabama, giving me between 0.50" and 0.75". That's been that pattern over the past two months, but I'd be thrilled to get three quarters of an inch. The rainfall contours are a bit busy for northern California and the Pacific Northwest so maybe they'll get some much need rain as well.

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
825 am CDT Sat Oct 31 2015

Sounding discussion...

Two comparisons to do this morning with the sounding analysis.
First...what a change from yesterday. Yesterdays precipitable water was .85 in
with a large dry area from 9kft to 32kft. This morning the precipitable water
jumped to 1.56in with the only non saturated layer between 2.5kft
to 10kft. Other notables from this mornings sounding include an Li
of 1 and a decent with 30kt by 5kft and 50kt at 17kft. Inversion
up to 6kft will erode as the lower moistens up from the west. That
brings US to the second comparison as we look west for what our
sounding will look like later today. Klch shows strong low level jet with
50kt at 2kft and 80kt at 38kft. Li at klch as -3 with a precipitable water at an
impressive 2.34in. The column is totally saturated with a cape
calculated at 91j/kg. Both hodographs are similar with some
support for a few storms to rotate. Both sounding not the best for
severe weather...however do show some indication for rapid spin
ups near the stronger storms. The main threat will remain heavy
rain with the highest totals near areas where storms train giving
repeated heavy downpours. /Keg/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 340 am CDT Sat Oct 31 2015/

.Heavy rain and isolated severe weather possible this weekend...

Discussion...
biggest weather impacts will be in the next 48 hours or so as a
slow moving frontal system brings heavy rain and a threat of
isolated severe thunderstorms to the area.

Upper trough driving the system will elongate today as northern
stream energy lifts northeastward and southern stream energy lags
behind. This will cause the forward progression of the front to
slow and will result in a prolonged period of showers/thunderstorms
for the local area. 00z sounding indicated precipitable water value had risen to
about an inch. Suspect that 12z sounding will be significantly
higher and by this afternoon...precipitable water values are forecast to eclipse
the 2 inch mark...well in excess of what is normal for this time
of year. This will allow for very efficient rainfall rates from
some of the stronger convective storms. This is in contrast to
last weekend/S system which saw mostly steady stratiform
precipitation. Add in the fact that the ground can/T hold as much
water given last weekend/S heavy rain...and there is potential for
at least localized flash flooding.

Biggest change to the forecast has to do with rainfall totals
across eastern half of the area. Latest model consensus indicates
a slowly slower evolution of the middle level trough which will keep
convection over local area longer before being kicked eastward as
the trough finally gets moving. The increased quantitative precipitation forecast over eastern
areas necessitates extending the Flash Flood Watch eastward to
include the remainder of the forecast area. With rainfall today
forecast to be generally light east of the Pearl River...will have
the Flash Flood Watch for those areas start at 00z this evening
instead of 12z today. All local flash flood watches will be in
effect through 00z Monday...but as heavy rain begins to
taper...will likely begin cutting areas out of the watch from west
to east throughout the day Sunday.

Core of 850mb jet streak will move eastward from west central la
to SW MS through early afternoon and will then weaken as it
continues eastward. This jet streak will help kick directional and
speed shear up over the local area today. Best shear still looks
to be across northwestern half of area closer to the jet streak
core. In these areas...0-3km storm relative helicity peaks in the
400 to 500 m2/s2 range this morning and decreases to a still
respectable 300 m2/s2 this afternoon as low level winds veer and
the jet streak begins to weaken. Values are lower to the east and
southeast...but are still in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range for much
of the day. Instability is a bit harder to come by owing to weak
lapse rates as the atmosphere becomes moisture loaded. Diurnal
heating will also be limited by cloud cover. Nevertheless...the
high shear environment and marginal instability will still lead to
potential for a few storms to become severe with the primary
threats being damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Storm Prediction Center
continues to indicate a slight risk of severe weather across the
region.

Severe threat should taper off pretty quickly this evening as the
low level jet streak continues to weaken and move away from the
area...but the heavy rain threat will persist through tonight and
into at least the first part of Sunday. There are some differences
in timing between the models...but looks like heavy rain threat
should begin to taper off from west to east during the day Sunday.
As previously mentioned...will likely be able to start trimming
parishes/counties from the Flash Flood Watch as the rain moves eastward.

Cold front finally pushes east of local area Sunday night. Air
mass behind the front is of Pacific origin...so not expecting too
strong of a temperature gradient. Temperatures should fall a few
degrees but will remain above normal even behind the front.
Drier surface high settles into the area on Tuesday...but quickly
begins to shift eastward on Wednesday allowing winds to turn
onshore again and marking the start of moisture return. Upper
ridging builds into the area by midweek resulting in a continued
warming trend. Next frontal system looks to impact the area next
weekend.

Aviation...
middle and high level clouds were being observed across the forecast
area early this evening. Ceilings will gradually lower in the MVFR
category around 12z this morning. Rain and thunderstorms will mainly
hold off until after 14z today and spread from west to east during
the course of the day. The rain and MVFR ceilings will persist into
the evening hours.
740  
WFUS54 KLCH 311528  
TORLCH  
LAC079-311600-  
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0025.151031T1528Z-151031T1600Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1028 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL RAPIDES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT  
 
* AT 1028 AM CDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER  
ELMER...OR NEAR HINESTON...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
ALEXANDRIA...HINESTON...ELMER...CALCASIEU...WOODWO RTH AND UNION  
HILL.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A  
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY  
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR  
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3099 9273 3116 9281 3126 9250 3111 9237  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 249DEG 51KT 3111 9269  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
JB  
 
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REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 57.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN 8-NM PINHOLE EYE AND
OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE THAT LINES UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED
LOW REFLECTIVITY MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 311029Z AMSU-B PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE 15-KNOT SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 04A IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.
AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL YEMEN AS IT TRACKS
MORE NORTHWESTWARD. TC CHAPALA WILL WEAKEN AS DRY AIR EMANATING FROM
THE ARABIAN PENINSULA, IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, ERODES THE
SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE
BY TAU 72 MAINLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED AND DRY
YEMENI TERRAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z,
010900Z AND 011500Z.//

Nea like Ted Cruz?


Bwahhh, lol'....


Dat's some serious cognitive dissonance at play.

Most assuredly.
Goblin weather in Soo Cal tonight!

Quoting 292. IndividualThinker2:

A random guess is literally as good as anyone's theory right now.
Again: no. That's something people who are in denial of scientific truth say. That's simply not the way science works.

Now, accepting your "unaccounted for" figure of 0.5mm per year of SLR, that means roughly 10 trillion liters per year of megacryometeors are making their way into the oceans. In more manageable terms, that's roughly 320,000 gallons per second, or enough to fill two Olympic-sized swimming pools every two seconds. Though the earth is fairly large, it's nonetheless difficult to see how we can possible miss every one of the hundreds of thousands--or millions--of Ice Balls From Space hurtling into our atmosphere every second.

Ever hear of Occam's Razor?
My area has had a weird year with precipitation this year. We have gone from dry to saturated, to dry to saturated, to dry to saturated, and all within the same year. That ain't right, not even for Texas! I have needed either a dust mask or pontoons on my mower to do any yard work this year. Do you have any idea how difficult it is to put pontoons on my riding mower? :)

I have been getting rain since last night and it is still raining. This should be ending in another hour or two. There have been several areas around the Houston area that look like small tornado strikes. One, that I have not confirmed, near me. I will drive around later and get photos of any wind damage that I may find. MY PWS was taken out during IKE and I never replaced it. My yard, along the fence lines, is holding 2-3 inches of water. The front drainage ditch is full and so this water will have to go down before the water drains out of my yard again.
This is wunderground.com

The cornerstone of wu is Science.

If you have a competing theory for AGW as it stands within the field of Science today, we offer all a chance to present that science in a logical, protocol laden way.

But we are not silent post as along a fence in Texas, ....


We challenge deep derp for what it is...

The burden of proof as always, is on the presenter.

Savvy?





Quoting 304. sar2401:

Man, Texas seems to be getting it on the chin - again. I can only hope some of that rain works its way over this way in the next two days. The WPC contour chart is showing about four inches for a small section of central Alabama. Unfortunately, it tails off rapidly over SE Alabama, giving me between 0.50" and 0.75". That's been that pattern over the past two months, but I'd be thrilled to get three quarters of an inch. The rainfall contours are a bit busy for northern California and the Pacific Northwest so maybe they'll get some much need rain as well.




And maybe a bit of spritz for Soo Cal Mon-Wed time frame. Nor-Cal could use some rain for sure. From NWS San Diego Forecast Discussion:

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY...
THEN WEAKEN AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHARPENING THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS SE
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH
WILL HOLD IT OVER SOCAL THROUGH WED. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS RECOVER LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT
THE MODELS KEEP BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WEST...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS
SOME SPREAD IN THE HEIGHT FIELD AND POSITIONING OF THE SHORTWAVES. SO
THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE TROUGH HAS A TAP ON PWS OF 1-1.5
INCHES NORTH OF PT. CONCEPTION...BUT THIS BECOMES SQUEEZED AND CUT
OFF TO THE SW AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE...LIMITING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ACROSS SOCAL. THE INITIAL SHORT-WAVE SHOULD
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING RAIN/SNOWFALL LATE MON
AND MON NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE BOOSTS POPS SLIGHTLY TUE NIGHT. THE
FIRST GUESS PRECIP TOTAL FOR MON THROUGH WED MORNING KEEPS AMOUNTS
LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH WEST OF THE MTS...ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF
INCH IN THE MTS...AND LESS THAN ONE-TENTH ACROSS THE DESERTS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT IN
THE SAN BERNARDINO MTS.
Quoting 297. wartsttocs:



It certainly looks that way to me and let's hope for the sake of those in its path it doesn't strengthen much, much more and weakens quickly in the next couple days.
The topography of Yemen has some similarities to the Pacific coast of Mexico where Patricia made landfall. There's a narrow coastal plain backed up by some high mountains. That may cause the same kind of weakening we saw with Patricia. Unfortunately, there's only buoy in the area I can find, and that's one west of Socotra Island, and pretty far south of the storm's predicted path. SST's at coastal stations range from about 82 to 85, but it's also very shallow near the coast. There's a deep area with cold water about 150 miles off the coast, and that's what may be the cause of the predicted weakening of Chapala as it hits that deep water. Just like with Patricia, all we can do now is hope for the best.

859  
WUUS54 KLCH 311553  
SVRLCH  
LAC009-079-311700-  
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0104.151031T1553Z-151031T1700Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1053 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN RAPIDES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN AVOYELLES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL NOON CDT  
 
* AT 1053 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KOLIN...OR  
NEAR ALEXANDRIA...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
ALEXANDRIA...PINEVILLE...BALL...DEVILLE...KOLIN... HOLLOWAY...  
LIBUSE...TIOGA...ESLER REGIONAL AIRPORT...KINGSVILLE...PARADISE AND  
CENTERPOINT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL  
LOUISIANA.  
 
LAT...LON 3145 9216 3141 9215 3136 9208 3134 9209  
3133 9208 3134 9203 3132 9200 3130 9200  
3130 9202 3128 9202 3128 9194 3129 9193  
3128 9187 3127 9203 3118 9247 3142 9247  
3147 9216  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1553Z 253DEG 47KT 3126 9239  
 
HAIL...<.75IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
06  
 
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Good morning, almost afternoon

It's a beautiful 84, feeling like 96, with a few clouds floating around here on the island today.

Great Hallowe'en post, Joe! I remember as a little girl, wishing I didn't have to put a snow suit under my costume, climbing over snow banks to get to neighbours houses, and dreaming of living somewhere where I could dress as a ballerina or princess without the added padding! :-)

Lindy
Or, and I'm going out on a limb here, but the brand new study that comes to a different conclusion than the previous studies should be taken not as the end all truth, but another piece of the puzzle which suggests that data or a methodological concern may also be likely culprits. Always be careful of one study syndrome which you seem to be falling face first into.


Everything in science has "one study syndrome".

See my blog, I won't post what I'm about to write publicly here, because it may violate terms, I don't know, and the intent is not malicious.
The event arriving today in Se La. is particulary worrisome as last weekend we recieved over 9" in the Patricia remnants Storm.

We had gone 29 days before that system came in and we are mostly saturated, so this system swinging in has prompted a Coastal Flood Statement, and a flash flood watch.

BE sure to have your NOAA radio Battery Backed up today.

Quoting 315. HurricaneHunterJoe:



And maybe a bit of spritz for Soo Cal Mon-Wed time frame. Nor-Cal could use some rain for sure. From NWS San Diego Forecast Discussion:

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY...
THEN WEAKEN AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW. {snip}...
I think a spritz is probably a good description. Since you're in the mountains, you may get a shower or two out of it. I don't think the coastal plans from LA south are going to see anything from it. We're just now getting into the start of the real rainy season in southern California, so there's plenty of time for more rain. I suspect that, by Valentine's Day, you'll be hoping the rain finally stops. Nothing like California during a strong El Nino for producing prodigious rainfall totals.
Quoting 310. Patrap:

Nea like Ted Cruz?


Bwahhh, lol'....


Dat's some serious cognitive dissonance at play.

Most assuredly.


Damn lefty media and scientists too! BWAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!! LOLOLOL
811  
WGUS54 KLCH 311600  
FFWLCH  
LAC079-311730-  
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0053.151031T1600Z-151031T1730Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1100 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
RAPIDES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1059 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES HAVE  
ALREADY FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS  
EXPECTED. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
ALEXANDRIA...PINEVILLE...BOYCE...HINESTON...LENA.. .ALEXANDRIA  
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...BALL...KOLIN...ELMER...LIBUSE...GARDNER. ..  
KINGSVILLE...PARADISE...DEVILLE...HOLLOWAY...ESLER REGIONAL  
AIRPORT...TIOGA...OTIS...TIMBER TRAILS AND SIEPER.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3149 9270 3150 9268 3145 9271 3145 9268  
3140 9269 3140 9267 3139 9266 3147 9216  
3141 9215 3135 9207 3132 9210 3130 9216  
3133 9219 3133 9222 3124 9223 3092 9282  
3144 9283 3152 9272  
 
 
 
BRAZZELL  
 
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863  
WGUS54 KLCH 311602  
FFWLCH  
LAC011-019-TXC241-351-361-311730-  
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0054.151031T1602Z-151031T1730Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1102 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
WESTERN CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1056 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS  
ALREADY FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIFNALL IS  
EXPECTED. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
BEAUMONT...VINTON...DEWEYVILLE...DE QUINCY...STARKS...  
MAURICEVILLE...DEQUINCY...PINE FOREST...FOREST HEIGHTS...GIST...  
DEVILS POCKET...HARTBURG...BUHLER...EDGERLY...WRIGHTS SETTLEMENT  
AND LUNITA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD  
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED AT  
1230 PM AND COMBINED WITH OTHER WARNINGS AROUND THE AREA.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3044 9390 3051 9325 3011 9345 3016 9402  
3029 9411  
 
 
 
BRAZZELL  
 
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Well, that was a lot of rain! Have not seen the ditch behind my house that full in a loooong time. Part of street flooded and the rain just started again. Looks to be on the move out soon though and then I can go play lol
Quoting 321. sar2401:

I think a spritz is probably a good description. Since you're in the mountains, you may get a shower or two out of it. I don't think the coastal plans from LA south are going to see anything from it. We're just now getting into the start of the real rainy season in southern California, so there's plenty of time for more rain. I suspect that, by Valentine's Day, you'll be hoping the rain finally stops. Nothing like California during a strong El Nino for producing prodigious rainfall totals.


Hope I'm singing this in Feb!

Link
Quoting 319. IndividualThinker2:



Everything in science has "one study syndrome".

See my blog, I won't post what I'm about to write publicly here, because it may violate terms, I don't know, and the intent is not malicious.



First, not everything in science has "one study syndrome". That is a misrepresentation that seems to confuse press releases by media groups like phys.org for the scientific "everything". Second, I read your blog. It is the same classic social constructionist attack on science that has been going on for over 3 decades.
Quoting 313. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

My area has had a weird year with precipitation this year. We have gone from dry to saturated, to dry to saturated, to dry to saturated, and all within the same year. That ain't right, not even for Texas! I have needed either a dust mask or pontoons on my mower to do any yard work this year. Do you have any idea how difficult it is to put pontoons on my riding mower? :)

I have been getting rain since last night and it is still raining. This should be ending in another hour or two. There have been several areas around the Houston area that look like small tornado strikes. One, that I have not confirmed, near me. I will drive around later and get photos of any wind damage that I may find. MY PWS was taken out during IKE and I never replaced it. My yard, along the fence lines, is holding 2-3 inches of water. The front drainage ditch is full and so this water will have to go down before the water drains out of my yard again.
Dang, Rookie, Ike was a long time ago. Hop to it and replace that PWS so we can get actual readings from you. :-)

You should see my yard guys when they mow. You can barely see the mower for the cloud of dust. None of them wear even a dust mask. There's probably some OSHA rule about that, but we don't cotton much to OSHA down here. I have all kinds of drainage schemes on my lot, including a big French drain that carries off water from the backyard to the street. I suppose there's at least a chance I'll be able to test it some day.
Quoting 87. no1der:

Nothing to See Here

By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 30th October 2015

In the greatest environmental disaster of the 21st Century (so far), Indonesia has been blotted out by smoke. And the media.

I've often wondered how the media would respond when eco-apocalypse struck. I pictured the news programmes producing brief, sensational reports, while failing to explain why it was happening or how it might be stopped. Then they would ask their financial correspondents how the disaster affected share prices, before turning to the sport. As you can probably tell, I don't have an ocean of faith in the industry for which I work.

What I did not expect was that they would ignore it.

A great tract of the Earth is on fire. It looks as you might imagine hell to be. The air has turned ochre: visibility in some cities has been reduced to 30 metres. Children are being prepared for evacuation in warships; already some have choked to death. Species are going up in smoke at an untold rate. It is almost certainly the greatest environmental disaster of the 21st Century - so far.

And the media? It.s talking about the dress the Duchess of Cambridge wore to the James Bond premiere, Donald Trump's idiocy du jour and who got eliminated from the Halloween episode of Dancing with the Stars. The great debate of the week, dominating the news across much of the world? Sausages: are they really so bad for your health?

What I'm discussing is a barbeque on a different scale. Fire is raging across the 5000-kilometre length of Indonesia. It is surely, on any objective assessment, more important than anything else taking place today. And it shouldn't require a columnist, writing in the middle of a newspaper, to say so. It should be on everyone's front page.

It is hard to convey the scale of this inferno, but here's a comparison that might help: it is currently producing more carbon dioxide than the US economy. In three weeks the fires have released more CO2 than the annual emissions of Germany.

But that doesn't really capture it. This catastrophe cannot be measured only in parts per million. The fires are destroying treasures as precious and irreplaceable as the archaeological remains being levelled by Isis. Orang utans, clouded leopards, sun bears, gibbons, the Sumatran rhinoceros and Sumatran tiger, these are among the threatened species being driven from much of their range by the flames. But there are thousands, perhaps millions, more.
Quoting 327. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Hope I'm singing this in Feb!

Link
You very well may. I remember the 1986 floods, when it rained almost every day in February. All I wanted was one sunny day. The rains did finally stop in March, and we did get some sun. That helped the spirits of the thousands who were still cleaning up after the floods.
I hope Ozzie Osbourne has a poncho for tonights Voodoo Fest @ City Park.



Quoting 318. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning, almost afternoon

It's a beautiful 84, feeling like 96, with a few clouds floating around here on the island today.

Great Hallowe'en post, Joe! I remember as a little girl, wishing I didn't have to put a snow suit under my costume, climbing over snow banks to get to neighbours houses, and dreaming of living somewhere where I could dress as a ballerina or princess without the added padding! :-)

Lindy




Hi Lindy! Head to Soo Cal, nice and balmy.......Don't forget your pea shooter attached to that broomstick! LOL....Happy Halloween!
Quoting 326. BrazoriaMan:

Well, that was a lot of rain! Have not seen the ditch behind my house that full in a loooong time. Part of street flooded and the rain just started again. Looks to be on the move out soon though and then I can go play lol
Gonna take that cool camo Jeep out for some mudding I'll bet. How did you manage to install that roof mounted spotlight? I assume it's a fiberglass hardtop, so getting a ground must have been a pain. For some reason, roof mounted spots are standard equipment of most police vehicles in northern California. They are nice to have compared to post mounted spots, since you don't get glare back in your face. Ours always leaked and shorted out, making them a lot less attractive.
Quoting 328. Patrap:




Dat rain getting closer to ya!

Beautiful capture of Chapala by Terra/MODIS satellite a bit earlier.
Source.



Here's some fun fodder for Halloween from Yahoo News
Dead comet with skull face to hurtle by Earth on Halloween


The size of the average football stadium, will miss earth impact by 486,000 kilometers
Link
Why is this happening? Indonesia%u2019s forests have been fragmented for decades by timber and farming companies. Canals have been cut through the peat to drain and dry it. Plantation companies move in to destroy what remains of the forest to plant monocultures of pulpwood, timber and palm oil. The easiest way to clear the land is to torch it. Every year, this causes disasters. But in an extreme El Nio year like this one, we have a perfect formula for environmental catastrophe.


Regardless of what anyone here may think of me, I too find this disgusting and godless wasteful behavior.


The current president, Joko Widodo, is %u2013 or wants to be %u2013 a democrat. But he presides over a nation in which fascism and corruption flourish. As Joshua Oppenheimer%u2019s documentary The Act of Killing shows, leaders of the death squads that helped murder around a million people during Suharto%u2019s terror in the 1960s, with the approval of the West, have since prospered through other forms of organised crime, including illegal deforestation.

They are supported by a paramilitary organisation with three million members, called Pancasila Youth. With its orange camo-print uniforms, scarlet berets, sentimental gatherings and schmaltzy music, it looks like a fascist militia as imagined by JG Ballard. There has been no truth, no reconciliation; the mass killers are still greeted as heroes and feted on television. In some places, especially West Papua, the political murders continue.


http://www.monbiot.com/2015/10/30/nothing-to-see- here/

Unfortunately, in spite of it's lapses in policing the entire world, the west has actually bankrupted itself in the attempts. This is partly through incompetent Presidents and Legislators, especially in the US and Europe.

Pacifism does not solve problems.
Boots on the ground produces prolonged, unjust risk to your own young people.
Bombing campaigns with multi-million dollar smart bombs to destroy a toyota with a machine gun mounted on it (Current fight against ISIS in the middle east)...doesn't make economic sense...if you're spending exponentially more money per enemy combatant or asset killed/destroyed than what they lose, then in all likelihood you aren't winning.

If you want to deal with paramilitary organizations, there are ways to fight it with less risk...Helicopters with chain guns and incendiary rounds, drones, ....but you have to be willing to take steps that the past several presidents and past several congresses in the US have not been willing to take, and which half or more of the Democrat party is adamantly opposed to anyway.

Can you stop genocide without committing genocide yourself?

Certain types of determined foes fight to the death no matter what, and of course the only way to deal with them is to kill them, because they cannot be negotiated with.

But if the president or Senate took such steps, the very same people demanding "action" would complain about us violating the "human rights" of the Terrorists!


Unfortunately, we live in a civilization which this author rightly implies is dictated by stupidity and superficiality.
Quoting 334. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Hi Lindy! Head to Soo Cal, nice and balmy.......Don't forget your pea shooter attached to that broomstick! LOL....Happy Halloween!


That was funny, Joe....really funny.

And by the way, my definition of a "spritz" is totally different from yours... ;-)

-L
Lunacy is NOT a badge of Honor, esp, here.

Quoting 341. Loduck:

Michael Doran did you create an account here just to see how many you could instigate into an argument? I think you picked the wrong blog to do that as the bloggers on this forum are very intelligent and not easily bullied. If you had lurked for a while you would have seen that.


Simply add to your ignore list and don't engage.
Quoting 304. sar2401:

Man, Texas seems to be getting it on the chin - again. I can only hope some of that rain works its way over this way in the next two days. The WPC contour chart is showing about four inches for a small section of central Alabama. Unfortunately, it tails off rapidly over SE Alabama, giving me between 0.50" and 0.75". That's been that pattern over the past two months, but I'd be thrilled to get three quarters of an inch. The rainfall contours are a bit busy for northern California and the Pacific Northwest so maybe they'll get some much need rain as well.


Keep saying that and soon enough you'll get boat loads of rain. I can't tell you how many times i've seen rain that acts like I have a anti rain repellent or something of the likes. Then bam that rain you missed comes all at once. :) It all evens out in the end.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 1151 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1148 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015
Quoting 333. Patrap:

I hope Ozzie Osbourne has a poncho for tonights Voodoo Fest @ City Park.






Bow echo is getting returned for that front and tornado watch in effect till 7pm. They may have to close Voodoo down.
Quoting 294. Patrap:

A DEEP DERP WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE MAIN BLOG






I think it should updated to a derp warning, given derp conditions are imminent or are already occurring.

At the end of our block. Perfect day.


Link
Quoting 342. IndividualThinker2:

And lest anyone think that I am defending the Republicans in that last post, I am not.

You see, their problem is they are so adamantly opposed to communism that they have, on occasion, allowed Terrorist organisations to overrun communist or Dictatorship governments less evil than themselves, particularly in Africa.


The "Arm evil to fight evil" mentality in America runs deep on both sides.


In the past, I have said that we should in fact turn these groups against one another, as it is an efficient method of victory, but I never said we should army anyone, the way Obama and Hilary armed or tried to army disreputable people in Syria and Libya, etc.

The "democracy is inherently good" lie pervades both major parties of our government.

You cannot change evil people by giving them democracy.

It just doesn't work that way.

Evil people vote for evil laws. Get it?


You make some good points, but I don't think saying evil people vote for evil laws would be right. While that may sometimes be true, I think many times people with good intent vote for terrible laws also by means of a number of reasons.
Quoting 338. JNFlori30A:




Here's some fun fodder for Halloween from Yahoo News
Dead comet with skull face to hurtle by Earth on Halloween


The size of the average football stadium, will miss earth impact by 486,000 kilometers
Link


IT'S A BAD OMEN ZOMG.
Quoting 277. Xandra:

House Science Committee on Hidden Camera

A hidden camera recording of the US House Science Committee has come to light thanks to a whistle blower.



What movie is this?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
.
Quoting 322. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Damn lefty media and scientists too! BWAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!! LOLOLOL


Science is a left wing conspiracy, didn't you know? And apparently for those like me who are conservative, I'm a fake conservative because I believe what climate scientists have to say over politicians that are lobbied by oil companies...
Quoting 356. BayFog:


What movie is this?
Young Frankenstein...
361. vis0
Quoting 169. DeepSeaRising:

With over eight billion stars possibly capable of having life such as ours in the Milky Way alone it does really boggle the imagination. Who knows? Estimates have from 100 billion to a trillion planets possibly in the Milky Way. And what a small sample indeed. As we sit in the comfort of our homes, comforted by our loved ones, with the comforts of every day life; does this not in itself argue for a creator. Is man/woman alone to credit for all of this or has God been with us all along? And we don't know. It's a pretty good hypothesis mathematically speaking that we're not alone, but what if there is only us?
Could be 1 per Universe.......................................... .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .............oh BTW what if there are a billion universes x 3 varieties (2 varieties of universe separate the rest) then there are at least 3 billion Earth EACH has an entire universe to Observe and learn from, FORGET VIDEO GAMES lets have fun traversing the the universe ...weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeewooooHHHHHHweeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeWOOOOOOAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHH(donut break)weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeewaaaoO HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH


Now lets not forget Chapala Hits 155 mph & flooding in our backyard (literally and figuratively, since Arabian Sea & Texas are both on Earth, our backyard.
Quoting 272. sar2401:

What??? That's the original Bates letter to Nature in 1998. NIcholas Bates is a professor at Southampton University in England. He's based at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Science. He's never been with Harvard. You never actually read the study associated with that letter, did you? You copied that "Bates, et al Harvard (2003)"


Yes the Harvard and date of publication is, yes, not correct. BFD. It's been a long time since I checked that citation. However the point I was making was that when a tropical storm goes over the oceans it removes CO2 from the oceans and puts it into clouds. Here is what the link provided states:

"We estimate that hurricane Felix and two other hurricanes increased the summertime efflux of CO2 into the atmosphere over this part of the Sargasso Sea by nearly 55%. We estimate that hurricanes contribute to the global ocean-to-atmosphere flux of CO2 by between +0.04 to +0.51 Pg C (1015 g C) per year. Such hurricane-forced effluxes are quantitatively significant compared to regional (14° to 50° N zone)2 and global effluxes2,3. Hurricanes therefore exert an important influence on ocean–atmosphere CO2 exchange and the inferred4 year-to-year variability of CO2 fluxes over the subtropical oceans."

I in fact did read the entire paper but I am not going to pay to re-read it again for someone who is bullying me on this site to provide a quote, but my recollection was in fact that they did estimate one third of the carbonation of the top part of the ocean where it passed was moved into the atmosphere by the winds and low pressure. It's common sense, and really shouldn't require a citation. When you shake a beer and crack it open what happens? Mmmm? The pressure is less in the atmosphere than the bottle and the CO2 comes out of solution.
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Quoting 151. BahaHurican:

Barefoot, you may be considered rowdy, argumentative, or just plain contentious, but you are certainly no troll.

:o)
Rowdy I'll claim. Argumentative when the occasion calls for it. Misunderstood, often. Contentious, not. The issues are contentious. People running scared need hope, not exaggeration.