WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

2nd billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012: April 3 severe weather in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on May 11, 2012

The U.S. suffered its second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 on April 3, when a massive hailstorm and 21 tornadoes hit the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas region, said insurance company Aon Benfield, in their latest monthly Global Catastrophe Recap Report. They put the damage at $1 billion. The tornado outbreak included one EF-3 twister, which hit Forney, Texas. A severe hailstorm during the outbreak hit the DFW airport, damaging over 100 airplanes, and forcing the temporary closure of the airport. The other billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 was the March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. NOAA put the total cost of the tornadoes that killed 41 people in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama during the outbreak at $1.5 billion. There were two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. On average, the U.S. sees 3 - 4 billion-dollar weather disasters each year, with 1 - 2 of these being severe weather/tornado outbreaks. In 2011, we already had five billion-dollar weather-related disasters by the first week of May, so we are well behind last year's pace. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center logged a record fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011. There has been just one other billion-dollar disaster in the world this year, according to Aon Benfield--severe flooding in Australia's New South Wales and Victoria states in late February and early March that caused $1.58 billion in damage. A separate flooding episode in late January and early February came close, causing an additional $920 million in damage in Australia.


Figure 1. The EF-3 tornado that hit Forney, Texas, on April 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer ClockworkLemon


Video 1. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.



Canada and Midwest U.S. frost/freeze damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars
Damage to fruit trees in Ontario, Canada due to a series of frosts and freezes over the past six weeks will easily top $100 million dollars, said the Windsor Star this week. About 80% of the Ontario apple crop was wiped out. At the Ann Arbor Farmer's Market yesterday, I talked to a local apple grower who told me that her orchard in Southeast Lower Michigan had suffered at least a 90% loss of its apple crop. She said the story was similar for all the growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, grapes, cherries, and plums in Michigan. "The only year that can compare was 1945," she told me, "and that year wasn't nearly as bad as 2012." Fruit crops in Pennsylvania and New York State have suffered heavy damage as well, and the total damage to agriculture from this year's freezes will likely be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. All of this damage occurred despite the fact that April temperatures across the region were above average. The culprit was the extraordinary "Summer in March" weather in mid-March 2012, which brought a week of 80°F-plus temperature to the region that triggered a record early bloom.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Eastern Pacific Invest 90E.

Hurricane season is coming
It's now mid-May, which means that hurricane season is about to start in the East Pacific. The official start of the East Pacific hurricane season is May 15, and the action is already starting to heat up. The first "Invest" of 2012 in the East Pacific, Invest 90E, is located about 700 miles south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, and is moving westward out to sea, posing no threat to any land areas. The European Center model predicts the possibility of another system getting organized in the East Pacific, closer to the coast of Mexico, during the period Wednesday - Friday (May 16 - 18.)

In the Atlantic, where hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the action may also be about to heat up. For the past several days, the GFS model has been consistently predicting the development of a subtropical storm in the Western Caribbean, or waters near Florida, sometime May 19 - May 21. The European Center model has not been on board with this, but has been predicting a very moist flow of tropical air will develop, bringing heavy rains to Florida May 19 - 20. So, it is possible we will see the Atlantic's first named storm occur in May this year, but the models are very unreliable this far out.

Have a great weekend, everyone!


Jeff Masters
Royse City Tornado
Royse City Tornado
Tornado that hit Royse City 4/3/12
Hail no
Hail no
Hail from tornados. April storms 2012

Extreme Weather Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

502. BtnTx
Quoting TropicalBreeze2012:


Oh really? Can you please link it through here? I know; I know, I'm a lazy ass. But what you'd expect? It's 1am over here right now, and by this late hour at night, I don't feel like doing much of anything, other than to hit the hay already, that is, LOL, =).
You got it! More thunder again here and off to sleep.
Quoting TropicalBreeze2012:


Oh really? Can you please link it through here? I know; I know, I'm a lazy ass. But what you'd expect? It's 1am over here right now, and by this late hour at night, I don't feel like doing much of anything, other than to hit the hay already, that is, LOL, =).


Link
Quoting KoritheMan:


Link


Thanks. It's losing interest in its original Carib development, FAST!

How typical of the GFS, oh lord, =(.
Quoting TropicalBreeze2012:


Thanks. It's losing interest in its original Carib development, FAST!

How typical of the GFS, oh lord, =(.


The Pacific will probably win out.
Global Warming: An Exclusive Look at James Hansen’s Scary New Math
A new analysis by the NASA climatologist for the first time ties specific weather events to human-induced climate change LINK
Starting to get some pretty bad training in the Houston area:



Good morning.

90E:

Near the end of this morning's 6z GFS run

EURO seems to have come off the EPAC development. More serious about east coast a bit.

That area east of 90E looks like is slowly organizing and may be 92E soon.By the way,91E is out of NRL.

HPC trending higher again.

We should be able to handle 4 inches in N GA, so we are borderline on flooding.
Rain should be spread out over a few days, so not anticipating anything.
Also of note, though unlikely, we may get a few spinups:

THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FORECASTING A
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING...
WITH OUR LOCAL WRF THROUGH 36HRS HINTING AT THE ABOVE SOLUTION.
CONVERSELY...THE NAM AND HRRR WERE FURTHER SOUTH POSITIONING THE
SURFACE LOW. USING THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK...THE GFS SOUNDINGS
INCREASE SRH VALUES ABOVE 300M/S SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SOLUTION
COMES TO PAST...THE STRONGER STORMS WITHIN A LINE COULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR A BRIEF
SPIN-UPS (WEAK QUASI-LINEAR TYPE TORNADOES).
THE MORE STABLE NAM
WOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. IN THIS
FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE NORTHERN GFS/ECMWF/SREF SOLUTION
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Near the end of this morning's 6z GFS run



A sub-1000 mb system headed for west Florida in May? This blog would explode.

06z GFS has a 996 mb low hitting Florida.

But the thing is it keeps on delaying the timeline, now on the 26th.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
EURO seems to have come off the EPAC development. More serious about east coast a bit.



Its going to be real interesting on this blog next week..
Quoting ncstorm:


Its going to be real interesting on this blog next week..


Hmmm, I don't think 'interesting' was the word I had in mind...

Here's hoping the trolls don't notice the early developments.
The CMC is also showing the system now heading to FL



Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Hmmm, I don't think 'interesting' was the word I had in mind...

Here's hoping the trolls don't notice the early developments.


One thing about this blog that never changes is that there will always be trolls and people responding to them..I just scroll on past them
Quoting ncstorm:
The CMC is also showing the system now heading to FL





It'll probably be showing a Cat 5 this time tomorrow. Lol.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


It'll probably be showing a Cat 5 this time tomorrow. Lol.


LOL..NOW that will really set this blog off!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
HPC trending higher again.

We should be able to handle 4 inches in N GA, so we are borderline on flooding.
Rain should be spread out over a few days, so not anticipating anything.
Yes my area is getting lots of rain!.
120 LargoFl: gee What would the world look like...IF... [FloodedEarth map]
455 aspectre: Near as I can tell, that map shows a "GlobalFlooding" of at least 110metres above presentday sea-level in all areas...
Which is nearly 40metres above that which would occur with a total meltdown of all ice sheets and glaciers -- 72metres would be the highest reasonable estimate -- and at least 30metres above even if one includes extra sea-height along specific coastlines in the NorthernHemisphere due to the change in the gravitational equipotential across Earth's surface.
There ain't no way India would be split from the Eurasian continent, or for Australia to be split in two.
456 Some1Has2BtheRookie: You have to add in heat expansion, but I am not sure that it would be that much.

For a 38metre-rise, the ocean would have to heat to 45degreesCelsius(113degreesFahrenheit). Immersion in that nearly scalding seawater for any extended period would kill everything except thermophiles and a few bacteria. Flooding would be the least of ones problems:
Over half of the CarbonDioxide-to-Oxygen conversion is done by phytoplankton and blue-green algae.
Freshwater&land plants would be none too happy. The average ocean temperature sets the baseline around which land temperatures vary. Growth would cease, eventually other life functions would halt.

After looking at the Australia topo and the India topo, looks like the FloodedEarth map is using a sea-rise of at least 200metres, maybe 250metres. NewDelhi is 216metres above sea-level.
(The color-to-elevation scales on the two maps are different. It appears that the dark green on the Australian map colors land up to 200metres above sea-level.)
Makes sense... cuz I think that a (MediterraneanSea-to-Black-Sea-to) CaspianSea-to-ArabianSea connection that'd cut the MiddleEast from Asia would also require a 200metre-or-so sea-level rise. Same with drowning most of Canada.
We now have two major models support tropical development in the Caribbean, the GFS and the CMC. I will not be sold on the potential for development until the ECMWF gets fully onboard, but it has been hinting at lower pressures in the Western Caribbean in the next 10 days or so. As we get closer in the timeline to the potential genesis of this system of course, things will change and we will get a much clearer idea of the situation. Either way, I doubt it would be a major system, nothing above 60 mph. Strongest May storm we've seen in a long time for sure, but probably not a hurricane.
Poor Florida...it looks to be the sacrifice in this situation...I hope we get left over rain though from the system..
527:

There may be other freaky effects going on for that map.

If all the ice melted from Antarctica and Greenland, then they would have isostatic rebound and rise up out of the oceans, this would displace more water as their continental shelf rose above sea level, and tilted the ocean floors out away from themselves. Reasoning here is the mass of the ice on land is much more than the mass of the water on their coasts, so when the ice melts, they will rise and the water will run back off into the oceans.

The other continents, as they are inundated, would be pushed downwards by the invading mass, allowing the water to intrude farther and farther inland, within some limitations.

This should only account for probably just a few more meters at most, not 30 or 40 meters.

Though parts of Antarctica and Greenland would eventually experience uplifts equal to potentially scores or even hundreds of meters.
I think this "Storm" that the GFS has been persistently showing has a decent chance of actually forming.The model has not dropped development which is kind off unusual for this time of year.As its been stated even though the ECWMF is not showing any real development it is showing lowering pressures which leads to more convection building.And hell the GFS last year out performed the ECWMF on some storms last year....
We have invest 92L in the Atlantic for the big low near the Azores.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205121321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012051212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922012
AL, 92, 2012051212, , BEST, 0, 321N, 307W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0




Morning everyone. We had 1.76" of rain here last night. Kinda surprised me, but the strong easterly flow pinned all the storms up against this coast. We needed it. It also hit 94 degrees here yesterday.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 92L in the Atlantic for the big low near the Azores.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205121321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012051212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922012
AL, 92, 2012051212, , BEST, 0, 321N, 307W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0






Well, that was unexpected. Zero chance of development of course.
i personally see a system forming near Bermuda
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 92L in the Atlantic for the big low near the Azores.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205121321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012051212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922012
AL, 92, 2012051212, , BEST, 0, 321N, 307W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0






GFS current model forecast is for it to become some sort of hybridized low and move up towards Europe.

Wonder if it will be named?

Water between that region and Spain is 1 to 2C above normal.
Tropical models go up to 36kts.

WHXX01 KWBC 121332
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1332 UTC SAT MAY 12 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120512 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120512 1200 120513 0000 120513 1200 120514 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.1N 30.7W 32.9N 30.2W 33.9N 30.2W 34.8N 30.5W
BAMD 32.1N 30.7W 34.7N 29.4W 36.3N 30.1W 37.0N 31.2W
BAMM 32.1N 30.7W 33.9N 29.7W 35.4N 30.2W 36.2N 31.1W
LBAR 32.1N 30.7W 34.1N 28.3W 37.0N 26.6W 39.2N 25.6W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120514 1200 120515 1200 120516 1200 120517 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.1N 31.1W 34.7N 31.8W 34.3N 30.1W 34.5N 26.0W
BAMD 36.8N 32.4W 36.3N 30.9W 39.4N 25.8W 41.1N 21.4W
BAMM 36.2N 32.1W 35.5N 32.5W 36.6N 28.8W 38.0N 24.1W
LBAR 40.9N 24.6W 42.2N 28.5W 40.3N 29.8W 39.3N 21.7W
SHIP 35KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.1N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 32.6N LONM12 = 32.4W DIRM12 = 175DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 35.3N LONM24 = 31.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1020MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
531. RTSplayer: [inre comment]527: There may be other freaky effects going on for that map...

Yeah, but without a massive amount of computer firepower to process a LOT more data,
all I can do is make "spherical cow" estimates.
Just as I forecasted, 92L has formed.
the eastern pacific system is indeed organizing however the forecast track may be a track toward the cost possibly as a 60 mph storm one thing is interesting though last night someone posted a map which showed a strong anticyclone in the Caribbean i do believe the Caribbean system too could pan out

fresh satellite image of 92L
Doesn't look too bad.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Doesn't look too bad.



Marco sized though.

Interesting, it's defiantly getting sub-tropical.
This looks like mid-July in the EPAC, not May 12th.


This EPAC Hurricane Season is going to be much more active than the last two.

Good Morning folks, hopefully we will get an afternoon seabreeze shower, I hope.........................http://www.srh.noaa.g ov/images/fxc/tbw/graphicast/image1.gif
AL922012 - INVEST


2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

To me at the moment, 92L has a 30% chance of developing. What if the possible FL storm, 92L, and the possible Bermuda storm somebody mentioned forms before June? We would have to start a new blog.
Wow, definitely wasn't expecting 92L today!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, definitely wasn't expecting 92L today!

First of the Jose-like storms.
Medium chance of 40%.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This looks like mid-July in the EPAC, not May 12th.


This EPAC Hurricane Season is going to be much more active than the last two.


Increases our chances of getting a Hermine-like TS (Sept '10)
448 JNCali: So what will the next 'Billion Dollar Weather Disaster' be??? and where do the insurance companies get all their money... I'm only paying a couple thousand a year??????

They bet the customer premiums on the stock&bond&futures markets against pension funds and individual investors.
Because "fiduciary responsibility" laws pret' much force pension funds to buy high and sell low, and individual investors play hunches far too often, insurance companies have fairly easy pickin's.
40% hatched in the EPAC.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD
. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR
S. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD
. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR
S. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


AWESOME!!!! already 40%
Quoting CybrTeddy:
40% hatched in the EPAC.


Looking good for development, Ted. Any chance this circumvents the globe and winds up impacting the panhandle of Florida?
It's firing a little more convection up after it had died a little this morning...

Quoting dr73wtx:


Looking good for development, Ted. Any chance this circumvents the globe and winds up impacting the panhandle of Florida?


I don't know, let's ask the magic 8 ball.



Oh no, it appears unlikely. Sorry.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's firing a little more convection up after it had died a little this morning...



it was never dead nor ding wat is happening is a classic case of eastern pacific development notice the heavy convection and also see the rotation of the system imo this should be goin into 50 percent chance
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD
. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR
S. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


we will see ALETTA soon
566. 900MB
Off to an early start this year, perhaps. It has been one odd off season up here in the NYC area. Halloween snow and then only one more 4" snowfall in January. Then it was spring-like in February, and almost summer-like for March and part of April. We had wildfires and near drought in April and then it rained for 10 days straight in May.

My prediction for the hurricane season? Unpredictable! I think we will see some awfully strange things this year. Wow, that's almost as pinpoint as an accuweather forecast! One thing I find disturbing is that the East Coast has had very warm sst all winter and near me we are up to 5 degrees celcius above normal. Looks like the gulf is starting to warm up too. I would be surprised to see above normal development off the East Coast via stalled fronts, etc.. Here are a look at the sst anomolies:
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


it was never dead nor ding wat is happening is a classic case of eastern pacific development notice the heavy convection and also see the rotation of the system imo this should be goin into 50 percent chance

I agree... It looks as good or better now than ever, but it did lose some convection earlier today. This loop illustrates it well

Link
Invest 92L:



Ex-Invest 91E, Invest 90E, and soon-to-be Invest 92E:



ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I agree... It looks as good or better now than ever, but it did lose some convection earlier today. This loop illustrates it well

Link


what i beleived happen is a center relocation notice a mid level swirl dissipate near 10 degrees north and 106.4 degrees west there were two other areas which have now given rest to a main center
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


what i beleived happen is a center relocation notice a mid level swirl dissipate near 10 degrees north and 106.4 degrees west there were two other areas which have now given rest to a main center
in the main system
A nice large orange circle to get the season started :)

Buenos Dias!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Future 92E looks good
"IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO"

I hate when they use that wording. It's so suspenseful and is basically saying be very patient. Indeed hurricane season is arriving.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A nice large orange circle to get the season started :)



Well, they're off to a rather hasty start! I wonder how much longer before we see circles such as that one over on our basin, =(.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Future 92E looks good


there cannot be a future 92E its too close to the main system the only how this is possible is if that system was to end up the main one in the 2 and chances are unlikely but it is possible notice where the national hurricane center has the area of forecast in between the 2 almost like these 2 will merge and it makes sense to say the atmosphere is conducive to this type of development sice there is no large anticyclone over the area
Quoting TropicalBreeze2012:


Well, they're off to a rather hasty start! I wonder how much longer before we see circles such as that one over on our basin, =(.

Don't worry, it'll happen sooner or later... I think with all the talk of our possible future Alberto people are forgetting its only mid May... Our season doesn't even start for almost 3 weeks so anything we get in that time is just a bonus... We'll see our fair share, trust me
Looks like Spain, Portugal, and France could get the "A" storm, and in May, of all things!



That would be...odd...
Hello 92L where did you come from??? haha
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


there cannot be a future 92E its too close to the main system the only how this is possible is if that system was to end up the main one in the 2 and chances are unlikely but it is possible notice where the national hurricane center has the area of forecast in between the 2 almost like these 2 will merge and it makes sense to say the atmosphere is conducive to this type of development

How do you figure that? 90E and the disturbance are more than 10 degrees of longitude apart.

Quoting caribbeantracker01:


there cannot be a future 92E its too close to the main system the only how this is possible is if that system was to end up the main one in the 2 and chances are unlikely but it is possible notice where the national hurricane center has the area of forecast in between the 2 almost like these 2 will merge and it makes sense to say the atmosphere is conducive to this type of development

They're close together but you can se in post 576 that they are two distinct systems, so the one closest to the coast will probably be named 92E pretty soon.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Looks like Spain, Portugal, and France could get the "A" storm, and in May, of all things!



That would be...odd...


Dang RTS, I was just posting this when I saw your entry

Quoting RTSplayer:
Looks like Spain, Portugal, and France could get the "A" storm, and in May, of all things!



That would be...odd...

Do you think it will become the "A" storm?
AL922012 - INVEST


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR)



Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Don't worry, it'll happen sooner or later... I think with all the talk of our possible future Alberto people are forgetting its only mid May... Our season doesn't even start for almost 3 weeks so anything we get in that time is just a bonus... We'll see our fair share, trust me


Yeah, you're absolutely right. Thanks for that reassurance, bud, =).
This is so exciting
If by any chance we get Aletta and Alberto the blog will explode.
This is a 1 km resolution MODIS true color composite from 25 April 2010 sent to SPoRT from the Mobile, Alabama National Weather Service Forecast Office. This image shows the oil slick from the Deepwater Horizon accident, which is the whitish feature southeast of the Mississippi River delta and south of Mobile Bay. This image was passed to various emergency managers tracking the slick in order to protect Gulf beaches. The image also shows an increased amount of dirt flowing out of the rivers and flowing into the bays and Gulf of Mexico. Caribbean system in 240 hours..NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC May 12 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
Maybe NHC issues a Special Tropical Weather Outlook for 92L?
Whoa, wait! I go off the blog and we suddenly get 92L out near Spain? What is going on here, someone please fill me in on the details!
533 Tropicsweatherpr: We have invest 92L in the Atlantic for the big low near the Azores.
538 RTSplayer: GFS current model forecast is for it to become some sort of hybridized low and move up towards Europe. Wonder if it will be named?
583 RTSplayer: Looks like Spain, Portugal, and France could get the "A" storm, and in May, of all things! [Path Prediction chart] That would be...odd...

"First Named TropicalCyclone of the Atlantic Season strikes Europe: Hijinks Ensue"
I'd imagine there'd be a LOT of Europeans torqued off at the US.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Maybe NHC issues a Special Tropical Weather Outlook for 92L?

They should... I want to see how much of a chance they give it of developing
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Whoa, wait! I go off the blog and we suddenly get 92L out near Spain? What is going on here, someone please fill me in on the details!

Might be becoming subtropical. Supposed to become 36kts. Nothing from the NHC yet.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Whoa, wait! I go off the blog and we suddenly get 92L out near Spain? What is going on here, someone please fill me in on the details!


It's a non-tropical area of low pressure by the Azores that is acquiring sub-tropical characteristics and becoming better organized. However, it is a small Vince/Grace type system.
601. wxmod
Chinese air pollution easily visible 2400 miles into Pacific. MODIS satellite photo today.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012


ATLANTIC OCEAN...


AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 60W-75W EXTENDING S
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W TO 28N69W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES TO E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
26N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N68W TO E OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS NEAR 23N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N63W
26N63W TO 31N61W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-60W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 34N31W SUPPORTING A DEEPENING 1009 MB LOW NEAR
32N32W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W
EXTENDING TO 25N27W. A JET STREAM IS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 110 WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM
25N35W TO BEYOND 32N23W. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC MAINLY S OF 20N E OF
50W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL GLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING E FROM THE CAROLINAS AND
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS MAINLY N OF 25N
THROUGH LATE SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE
CONUS MON WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST BY LATE WED.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Whoa, wait! I go off the blog and we suddenly get 92L out near Spain? What is going on here, someone please fill me in on the details!

It's currently a non-tropical low that is slowly acquiring subtropical characteristics and losing its frontal characteristics. Sea Surface Temperatures are too cool for tropical development, so it would have to subtropical, but wind shear is 5-10 knots. If it wants to develop, it'll really need to start organizing quickly, as it only has 48 hours of favorable conditions.

Quoting allancalderini:
This is so exciting
Over the East Pac? Really? Then I cannot wait to see how excited you'll get once the Atlantic begins to light up like a Christmas tree in December.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A nice large orange circle to get the season started :)


92L
The NHC will soon say something about this one as well...watch!
611. wxmod
China smog 4000 miles into Pacific Ocean. MODIS satellite today.


Looks like a large wind field.
614. wxmod
China Smog polluting Alaska. MODIS satellite photo. For all you drill-baby-drill advocates, enjoy your choking and doctor bills!

Glad the tropics are starting to heat up. The weather has been rather boring.

90E


92L
I think it is time for a Special Tropical Weather Outlook...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it is time for a Special Tropical Weather Outlook...


Kind of reminds of Grace from '09.
618. wxmod
Quoting Ameister12:
Glad the tropics are starting to heat up. The weather has been rather boring.

90E


92L


You ain't gonna be glad pretty soon.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it is time for a Special Tropical Weather Outlook...



Oh well, why not?

Everything else about the weather this year has been screwed up.

We may as well continue the trend I guess.
what happen too 91E?
As I expected last night, deeper moisture continues to move east through the gulf/gulf coast, and not northward:





Extended outlook:
holy crap 5000 to 6000 cape in the southwest gulf....


Finally a Blob to watch :)
So at the moment what would be the main reason 92L hasn't gotten a percentage yet?



Can't really tell if it is cold core or if it is still attached to a bunch of fronts.
Impressive, especially this far north this early.


GFS says sub-tropical.


ECMWF says becoming more warm-cored later on.


CMC.. er.. I think says becoming warm-cored.


SST anomalies are well above average in 92L's location, which explains the development.


The real question is - will the NHC call it? They might see it as trivial, after all it's very small and not a real threat. But then again, it might alert shipping interests to stay away from this, it's similar to Grace and Vince.
the area of disturbed weather in the north eastern atlantic is fast achieving sub tropical status. latest ascat shows that the system is still open on the south easten end. surface winds are about subtropical strengh at the moment, and it wouldnot be surprised if a special bulletin will be issued on this system sometime today
Quoting Tazmanian:
what happen too 91E?
Quoting Tazmanian:

It succumbed to unfavorable conditions.
Its a warm core so we have a good shot to have a subtropical system.the Atlantic didn`t want the Eastern Pacific to get all the attention so this is what it is giving us.
An invest! Praise the goddess! Bring on the blobs!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The real question is - will the NHC call it? They might see it as trivial, after all it's very small and not a real threat. But then again, it might alert shipping interests to stay away from this, it's similar to Grace and Vince.


If this was last season, they would have called it yesterday.


WxGeekVa isn't around so I'll fill in for him.

T.C.F.A.
INV/90E/XX
MARK
9.8N/104.73W
Transition to warm core...come on..

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It succumbed to unfavorable conditions.



thanks
I guess I lied...there is no front.

INV/92L/XX
Quoting Jedkins01:
As I expected last night, deeper moisture continues to move east through the gulf/gulf coast, and not northward:





Extended outlook:
hope your right there jed, we sure need that moisture here huh
Areas received some 10 inches near Houston last night, I received 5.15" last night...insanity.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Areas received some 10 inches near Houston last night, I received 5.15" last night...insanity.
any flooding over there rita?
Aww that storm in the north Atlantic seems so cute!.
Chances of rain are better monday, then again they had 30-40 percent last week and we got 5 droplets gee..........
Quoting LargoFl:
any flooding over there rita?


Where I'm at, not now, I slept thru it, tired. Gotta go see how high the detention ponds and basins are around the neighborhood. I know creeks are coming outta banks nearby from reports by NWS. Out west near Sugarland heard some homes got water inside, cars underwater, areas waist deep in some places, but not where I'm at.
I will be writing a full tropical update shortly on my blog....

IMO...92L is already at least a subtropical storm from its satellite characteristics. In post 626...notice the cirrus outflow in the N semicircle...so this could very well make it to tropical storm status. This is a very similar setup to 91L last month...but this one has been able to sustain convection....

This is yet another example of how a cold core upper low can destabilize the atmoshpere for sustained convection. If the air aloft is cold enough....you can have convective cloudiness even though SSTs are below 26 deg C.....
05/12/2012 0425 am

Pecan Grove, Fort Bend County.

Flash flood, reported by law enforcement.


Widespread street flooding within the Pecan Grove
subdivision. Roads are impassable.




05/12/2012 0425 am

Sugar Land, Fort Bend County.

Flash flood, reported by law enforcement.


Intersection of grand Parkway and Highway 90 impassable
in all directions due to high water.




05/12/2012 0600 am

3 miles NE of Richmond, Fort Bend County.

Flash flood, reported by cocorahs.


10.70 inches of measured rainfall.




05/12/2012 0600 am

Pecan Grove, Fort Bend County.

Flash flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.


9.74 inches of rainfall recorded overnight in Pecan
Grove.




05/12/2012 0700 am

Sugar Land, Fort Bend County.

Flash flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.


8.25 inches of rainfall measured at Hull field. Runway
was closed due to high water.




05/12/2012 0700 am

Richmond, Fort Bend County.

Flash flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.


8.93 inches of rainfall measured in windloch subdivision.

05/12/2012 0600 am

League City, Galveston County.

Flash flood, reported by official NWS obs.


Measured 5 hour rainfall total of 5.48 inches at
Houston/Galveston NWS office.




05/12/2012 0700 am

1 miles NNE of League City, Galveston County.

Flash flood, reported by cocorahs.


5.57 inches of rainfall.




05/12/2012 0730 am

1 miles SSW of Friendswood, Galveston County.

Flash flood, reported by cocorahs.


6.13 inches of measured rainfall.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Where I'm at, not now, I slept thru it, tired. Gotta go see how high the detention ponds and basins are around the neighborhood. I know creeks are coming outta banks nearby from reports by NWS. Out west near Sugarland heard some homes got water inside, cars underwater, areas waist deep in some places, but not where I'm at.
ok good news, last night they said area's around creeks and rivers would be flooding thru sunday..stay safe
Statement as of 9:56 am CDT on May 12, 2012

... very heavy rain falls across parts of southeast Texas...

A slow moving upper level trough coupled with deep moisture and a
slow moving meso-scale boundary combined to produce periods of
showers and thunderstorms across southeast Texas last night into
early this morning. There were some amazing rainfall totals from
a cluster of thunderstorms that trained over parts of Fort
Bend... Harris... northern Brazoria and northern Galveston counties.

Below is a partial list of some of the more impressive rainfall
totals across southeast Texas.

Location 24 hour rain
(7am - 7am)

3 mi NE Richmond 10.70
Richmond (co-op) 9.32
Sugarland 7.58
Pearland (lvj) 6.64
hou-Westbury (co-op) 6.59
West University Place 6.49
hou-hobby Airport 6.23
Friendswood 6.13
NWS-hgx 5.62
League City 5.57
Fulshear 5.11
South Houston 4.86
Kemah 4.83
8 S Anahuac 4.10
Alvin 3.32
Santa Fe 3.27
Galveston (scholes) 2.82
Crockett 1.62
Brookshire 1.58
San Felipe 1.47
Onalaska 1.30
Huntsville 1.14
West Columbia 1.07
Hempstead 0.85
Wharton 0.77
Conroe 0.64
Houston (iah) 0.52
College Station 0.13
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1058 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-57 5-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-13 1600-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1058 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION. PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BANDS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THIS AREA WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY MAINLY DUE TO THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING.

$$
651. BDAwx


Fronts... as of 12Z on 92L that is
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I guess I lied...there is no front.



There is a front on the master surface analysis.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


There is a front on the master surface analysis.


Stalled out, looks like it might detach.
.................
Quoting Tazmanian:
what happen too 91E?


I think 91E was a "mistake", it never showed up in ATCF only on the Navy site. I'm thinking it will disappear from the Navy site also, like 90C from earlier this year is no longer shown.
Quoting LargoFl:
Chances of rain are better monday, then again they had 30-40 percent last week and we got 5 droplets gee..........


NWS is saying 50% tomorrow for the Tampa area, looks like the seabreeze collision might happen over Hillsborough tomorrow. At least I hope so.
to the person who said there will be an invest 92 E it is just a case of i told u so since i said no it is too close to form they are competing and the one with the upper hand will prevail

C'mon 92L detach from the front so we can have a name to talk about...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


NWS is saying 50% tomorrow for the Tampa area, looks like the seabreeze collision might happen over Hillsborough tomorrow. At least I hope so.
gee i hope your right..we need it
Quoting washingtonian115:
C'mon 92L detach from the front so we can have a name to talk about...


Two other issues, almost fully cold core (very close to subtropical though) and it isn't a closed circulation.
Quoting yqt1001:


Two other issues, almost fully cold core (very close to subtropical though) and it isn't a closed circulation.


1) That wouldn't make it fully cold core then. That would make it a hybrid going sub-tropical.

2) Defiantly a closed circulation.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


1) That wouldn't make it fully cold core then.

2) Defiantly a closed circulation.


Err yeah I meant mostly cold core. Extratropical for now.
Quoting yqt1001:


Two other issues, almost fully cold core (very close to subtropical though) and it isn't a closed circulation.
It appears to be gaining sub-tropical storm status at the moment...almost reminds me of Grace from 09.I think that circulation can close up in time as well.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it is time for a Special Tropical Weather Outlook...

The water is not warm there, but it does look tropical.
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
to the person who said there will be an invest 92 E it is just a case of i told u so since i said no it is too close to form they are competing and the one with the upper hand will prevail



See, this is one of the biggest problems with the blog. As soon as something happens, it's all 'Oh yeah, this just like I said it would be yesterday,' and 'I told you so'. If you get one right, then well done, but we don't all need to hear about how incredibly intelligent you are, and you don't need to have a go at somebody who predicted something differently.
Majority of the phase-diagrams say it's a symmetric cold core system that is currently transitioning to possibly a symmetric warm core system.
Quoting hydrus:
The water is not warm there, but it does look tropical.
I have seen weirder things....

East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121635
TWOEP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
935 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY...

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting CybrTeddy:


look at the EYE
Quoting washingtonian115:
C'mon 92L detach from the front so we can have a name to talk about...
yh the Atlantic 92L is different from the pacific 92 E i was talking bout the pacific but yes it was detached hopefully levi and doc will have an update one thing i am sure of the the 2006 H season the eastern pacific started of about 3 days later to this one but never did the Atlantic give it any competition
Here we go with our gulf of Honduras Development and to the west a TS in the EPacific


I hope...no...I EXPECT the NHC to say something about it
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


See, this is one of the biggest problems with the blog. As soon as something happens, it's all 'Oh yeah, this just like I said it would be yesterday,' and 'I told you so'. If you get one right, then well done, but we don't all need to hear about how incredibly intelligent you are, and you don't need to have a go at somebody who predicted something differently.
well its not bosting i was replying to sumone i did not remeber their name this morning we were just discussing sumthing i dont do that because that wud just be stupid
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Majority of the phase-diagrams say it's a symmetric cold core system that is currently transitioning to possibly a symmetric warm core system.
nothing more than a single cell convective mass with a rapid fire due to atomspheric dynamics at the moment its transitioning and should not be much of a threat to anyone won't last long
pre season teasers
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
well its not bosting i was replying to sumone i did not remeber their name this morning we were just discussing sumthing i dont do that because that wud just be stupid


That's fine. I wasn't having a go at you anyway, I saw what you posted about it earlier and it looks like you were right, but just try to always be modest.
Here is a video time lapse of some of the lightning in Houston last night


Link
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


That's fine. I wasn't having a go at you anyway, I saw what you posted about it earlier and it looks like you were right, but just try to always be modest.

true thanks
Oh really? The tornadoes/hail that struck the Dallas-Fort Worth area last month caused more than $1,000,000,000.00 in damages? Really?!? I live in this area, and I'd like to go see that what that level of damage looks like. Where is it? I'd really like to see, because that's approximately the value of all the taxable real estate in the entirety of City of Highland Village (a very wealthy suburb of 15,000 people). But I haven't seen that level of destruction anywhere. Are they sure that's not a typo? Perhaps they meant to write Million instead... you know, because the B and the M keys are practically next to each other on a computer keyboard. Or perhaps they confused a thousands-group-separator comma with a decimal point (since they look nearly identical, it's an easy mistake to make).

I notice the number is comparable to large-scale flooding in Australia, which occurred over a wide area and lasted for a whole month. Hrm... why doesn't this balance out? Oh wait, these numbers come from an insurance company. Ah, okay, that makes sense now. Like we can trust the facts and figures of the same industry that gouges us on homeowners insurance and car insurance, and of course has created the most expensive (but not best quality) health care system on the entire planet...
T.C.F.A.
INV/90E/XX
MARK
9.8N/104.73W
684. txjac
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Here is a video time lapse of some of the lightning in Houston last night


Link


Nice video ...was awesome to see that happening last night. Totally loved it
Really cute system we got here.

Strong thunderstorms are breaking out here in SE Mississippi. Tornado warned cell just north and east of Wiggins. It's certainly a nasty looking cell with a hook.

Got a good 5" of rain at my house last night!! Everywhere North of I-10 got hardly anything.

Link
I'm not advanced enough to know if the front has nearly detached or not, but it looks like it has.

Quoting txjac:


Nice video ...was awesome to see that happening last night. Totally loved it


Yes it certainly was!
The lightning was awesome, second night in a row. Good it is heading east.
Quoting Grothar:

Give it a 30% chance of forming as of now. If it can transition into a warm-core and get the NHC's attention. Then I'll up the %
Quoting CybrTeddy:

Whoa, I spy a tight circulation, and a clouded "eye" formation.... whaa?
Quoting Ameister12:

That's crazy! EYE
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
935 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY...

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
I see a "PINHOLE" eye!.
035

WWUS54 KMOB 121651

SVSMOB



SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL

1151 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012



MSC111-131-121730-

/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-120512T1730Z/

STONE MS-PERRY MS-

1151 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012



...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR

SOUTHWESTERN PERRY AND NORTH CENTRAL STONE COUNTIES...



AT 1149 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO

WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTH OF WIGGINS...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF

PERKINSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.



LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WIGGINS...



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE

LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.



&&



LAT...LON 3083 8917 3089 8922 3092 8921 3091 8915

3097 8914 3103 8907 3090 8897

TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 232DEG 17KT 3089 8914



$$












================================================= =====================


742

WFUS54 KMOB 121644

TORMOB

MSC111-131-121730-

/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0027.120512T1644Z-120512T1730Z/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL

1144 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

NORTH CENTRAL STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...



* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT



* AT 1140 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF WIGGINS...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST

OF PERKINSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.



* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WIGGINS...



LAT...LON 3092 8921 3091 8915 3097 8914 3103 8907

3087 8895 3079 8920 3087 8926

TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 234DEG 19KT 3087 8916



$$












PINHOLE EYE!!!
Can the NHC pay any attention to this Please. They might find this has a chance if it progresses into a warmcore. Very good looking system, and Yeah, it does remind of Grace 09'
Quoting yqt1001:
I'm not advanced enough to know if the front has nearly detached or not, but it looks like it has.

I wish we had a ship or a buoy near the center of this.. I bet there some strong winds.
I estimate this to have 50-60 Mph winds, Tight circulation, transitioning warm-core, and has about 96 hours to do something with it.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I estimate this to have 50-60 Mph winds, Tight circulation, transitioning warm-core, and has about 96 hours to do something with it.

Wonder if the NHC will say anything at 2:00. The NHC needs to consider naming this storm.
Quoting hydrus:


Things are warming up fast hydrus!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Give it a 30% chance of forming as of now. If it can transition into a warm-core and get the NHC's attention. Then I'll up the %


I don't give it much chance, unless it moves South.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Wonder if the NHC will say anything at 2:00. The NHC needs to consider naming this storm.

ehh, not just yet, i imagine they want to see it "FULLY" detatch from the frontal boundary(Which it almost has), and for it to Transition at least into a shallow warm-core storm before deciding to mention it. If the system can do these things by tomorrow morning, I imagine with the timing and such, we could could get Alberto to form and last for about 48 hours before swinging back around toward Europe.
AXNT20 KNHC 121038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W
6N30W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 10W-17W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 60/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-35W AND
WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS THE DOMINATING THE GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER HONDURAS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NE FLORIDA CONTINUING OVER NORTH CAROLINA.
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER E OKLAHOMA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S
TO OVER TEXAS MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N TO INLAND OVER
THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W-91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A 1013 MB LOW OVER E TEXAS JUST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI ALONG
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST INTO THE N GULF TO NEAR 30N87W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS N OF 29N. THE UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN TO 25N87W. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND DRIFT E ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TO
70W AND IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER HONDURAS. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 70W WITH PATCHES OF HAZE BEING REPORTED OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. W ATLC ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO
PERSIST FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 60W-75W EXTENDING S
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W TO 28N69W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES TO E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
26N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N68W TO E OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS NEAR 23N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N63W
26N63W TO 31N61W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-60W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 34N31W SUPPORTING A DEEPENING 1009 MB LOW NEAR
32N32W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W
EXTENDING TO 25N27W. A JET STREAM IS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 110 WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM
25N35W TO BEYOND 32N23W. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC MAINLY S OF 20N E OF
50W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL GLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING E FROM THE CAROLINAS AND
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS MAINLY N OF 25N
THROUGH LATE SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE
CONUS MON WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST BY LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




Got confirmation that the front is pretty much detached from 92L (although barely)



As far as eye goes it's probably just a gap in the convection as it attempts to spin up. Same thing happens with most deeper convective sub tropical systems (Sean for an example)

Grothar, if you look back,I deserve a delicious cookie as I was the first person to bring 92L to the blog.
709. Where'd you get confirmation?
Quoting yqt1001:
Got confirmation that the front is pretty much detached from 92L (although barely)



As far as eye goes it's probably just a gap in the convection as it attempts to spin up. Same thing happens with most deeper convective sub tropical systems (Sean for an example)




soooo....now what? the NHC will step in now?
Quoting yqt1001:
Got confirmation that the front is pretty much detached from 92L (although barely)



As far as eye goes it's probably just a gap in the convection as it attempts to spin up. Same thing happens with most deeper convective sub tropical systems (Sean for an example)


Basically all it has to do now, is become warm-core.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
709. Where'd you get confirmation?


A college student who is training to work for the NHC atm.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Basically all it has to do now, is become warm-core.

Easier said than done over those SSTs
Quoting yqt1001:


A college student who is training to work for the NHC atm.

What's his thoughts on the system(92L)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

What's his thoughts on the system(92L)


He doesn't say much about it other than that he is surprised about how quick it developed (maybe 50% chance of development if the organization holds together). He also wanted to add that there is only one person who is likely at work in the NHC right now which would contribute to the lack of a STWO.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Easier said than done over those SSTs

Yeah, very true.
Good afternoon all....i see we have 92L in the atlantic
Just a quick note... The SPC added a slight risk area in their last outlook

727. wxmod
Quoting Bardeyes:
An invest! Praise the goddess! Bring on the blobs!


There's a saying in music: it's not just the notes that count, it's the silence between the notes. You'll understand the weather a lot better if you quit fixating on the storms. In fact, the most important thing that's happening in the weather these days is not the weather at all.
.. A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1230 PM CDT for
southwestern Perry County...
While everybody is talking about the tropics a tornado warning is in effect haha The Tropics have taken over

At 1212 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles northeast of Wiggins... or 13 miles northeast of
Perkinston... moving northeast at 20 mph.

Locations impacted include...
rural southwestern Perry County

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building.

In addition to the tornado... this storm is capable of producing
damaging hail and destructive straight line winds.


Lat... Lon 3098 8912 3103 8907 3096 8901 3093 8899
3092 8899 3091 8907 3091 8914 3093 8914
time... Mot... loc 1715z 232deg 17kt 3096 8904
Quoting yqt1001:


He doesn't say much about it other than that he is surprised about how quick it developed (maybe 50% chance of development if the organization holds together). He also wanted to add that there is only one person who is likely at work in the NHC right now which would contribute to the lack of a STWO.

And why is that?!
We have 90E that is possibly going to form over the next couple of days(maybe), and a system in the Atlantic shouting "Hey! look at me! Im trying to form out here, if you wanna issue a statement or Name me! Im right here!"
What are the sst's underneath 92L ? It's hard to believe it has a chance to become a warm cored system.
Invest 92L
Quoting nigel20:
Invest 92L

Not half bad wind shear...
Quoting overwash12:
What are the sst's underneath 92L ? It's hard to believe it has a chance to become a warm cored system.


About 20 - 21 degrees celsius.
Quoting overwash12:
What are the sst's underneath 92L ? It's hard to believe it has a chance to become a warm cored system.

I'd say probably around 21C...
New Oceansat pass:

Gosh I hate these things.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

And why is that?!
We have 90E that is possibly going to form over the next couple of days(maybe), and a system in the Atlantic shouting "Hey! look at me! Im trying to form out here, if you wanna issue a statement or Name me! Im right here!"


I think they are probably waiting for the next model runs to see what cyclonephase shows. With a system like this the uncertainty is pretty high when it comes to subtropical or extratropical.
GOES Imager Cloud Albedo
May 12, 2012 - 16:45 UTC
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just a quick note... The SPC added a slight risk area in their last outlook



HOW DARE YOU BRING ANYTHING UN-TROPICS RELATED TO THE BLOG!!!!!1




I am, of course, joking, btw.
739. wxmod
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Grothar, if you look back,I deserve a delicious cookie as I was the first person to bring 92L to the blog.


Did you notice a few days ago that the Sahara dust storm that was holding back tropical development had dispersed, allowing this storm to form. If you didn't, quit patting yourself on the back.
Quoting overwash12:
What are the sst's underneath 92L ? It's hard to believe it has a chance to become a warm cored system.

802

WHXX01 KWBC 121332

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1332 UTC SAT MAY 12 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120512 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120512 1200 120513 0000 120513 1200 120514 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 32.1N 30.7W 32.9N 30.2W 33.9N 30.2W 34.8N 30.5W

BAMD 32.1N 30.7W 34.7N 29.4W 36.3N 30.1W 37.0N 31.2W

BAMM 32.1N 30.7W 33.9N 29.7W 35.4N 30.2W 36.2N 31.1W

LBAR 32.1N 30.7W 34.1N 28.3W 37.0N 26.6W 39.2N 25.6W

SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS

DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120514 1200 120515 1200 120516 1200 120517 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 35.1N 31.1W 34.7N 31.8W 34.3N 30.1W 34.5N 26.0W

BAMD 36.8N 32.4W 36.3N 30.9W 39.4N 25.8W 41.1N 21.4W

BAMM 36.2N 32.1W 35.5N 32.5W 36.6N 28.8W 38.0N 24.1W

LBAR 40.9N 24.6W 42.2N 28.5W 40.3N 29.8W 39.3N 21.7W

SHIP 35KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS

DSHP 35KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 32.1N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 32.6N LONM12 = 32.4W DIRM12 = 175DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 35.3N LONM24 = 31.1W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1020MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Coming together beautifully. O_o

You have to watch the Atlantic wide view and watch 92L! I just watched it suck up its circulation and thats when it popped out a huge eye like feature.
Very weird how it appears to be strengthening like a normal tropical system. Link
Quoting Levi32:
New Oceansat pass:

Gosh I hate these things.


Why are you hating on our little amazing gift from the Atlantic? I'm very amused by this system, VERY.
Quoting Levi32:
New Oceansat pass:

Gosh I hate these things.


What's up Levi...do you think that 92L will amount to anything more than an invest?
92L really has come out of no-where, it looks brilliantly organsied, firing convection with ease, and seems to have a closed circulation. It just looks tropical, which makes zero sense given the SSTs it's over.
Quoting yqt1001:
Coming together beautifully. O_o


That tight circulation is AMAZING to me... It's doing wonders for this system... Keep on marching little 92L!
749. JLPR2
That's one pretty May invest.

Quoting Ameister12:


Very similar to Tropical Storm Grace in 2009.


This is where the issue with subjective tropical cyclone formation comes into play. If they named Grace, they might just have to name 92L. But then they might not just because it's outside of hurricane season where as Grace wasn't.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
92L really has come out of no-where, it looks brilliantly organsied, firing convection with ease, and seems to have a closed circulation. It just looks tropical, which makes zero sense given the SSTs it's over.It looks like a mini Ophelia. She strengthened to a Category 4 over borderline tropical waters Northeast of Bermuda.
Quoting nigel20:

What's Levi...do you think that 92L will amount to anything more than an invest?


You can never know what the NHC will decide with these random things. Technically it's already at least partially warm-core, and oceansat reveals it has its own separate wind maximum. The next questions for the NHC are longevity and depth and organization of convection. We'll have to see if they care enough. They've done it before, just not this early in the year.
Quoting wxmod:


Did you notice a few days ago that the Sahara dust storm that was holding back tropical development had dispersed, allowing this storm to form. If you didn't, quit patting yourself on the back.


I think he was only kidding. I always give some bloggers a "cookie" when they do something good. hydrus is still waiting for his.

Come on guys, lets stop fighting over our first blob of the season. It's not nice to argue over blobs. Save that for when these things start pumping the ridge.
Eatern East Pacific

Imagine 1983 on the blog. Talk about tasting agony, lol.
Quoting Levi32:


You can never know what the NHC will decide with these random things. Technically it's already at least partially warm-core, and oceansat reveals it has its own separate wind maximum. The next questions for the NHC are longevity and depth and organization of convection. We'll have to see if they care enough. They've done it before, just not this early in the year.

Thanks, much appreciated
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/92L
MARK
33.1N/30.1W

Is it possible they could jump right into advisories without a TWO mention? Because it's pretty obvious the winds are at TS strength so if they determine it meets the criteria wouldn't they just initiate advisories?
Poll Time!
92L will amount to...
(A) A May Invest(Nothing more)
(B) Sub-tropical storm
(C) Sub-tropical storm that strengthens into a tropical storm
(D) Hurricane

90E will amount to...
(A) Nothing more than an Invest
(B) Tropical Depression
(C) Tropical Storm
(D) Hurricane

If 92L doesn't become Alberto, when will it form?
(A) Later this month
(B) Early June
(C) Late June
(D) Early July
(E) Late July or Later

If 90E doesn't become Aletta, when will it form?
(A) Next Week
(B) Later this month
(C) June
(D) July
Quoting Levi32:
New Oceansat pass:

Gosh I hate these things.



Aw, come on, you love em and you know it.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time!
92L will amount to...
(A) A May Invest(Nothing more)
(B) Sub-tropical storm
(C) Sub-tropical storm that strengthens into a tropical storm
(D) Hurricane

90E will amount to...
(A) Nothing more than an Invest
(B) Tropical Depression
(C) Tropical Storm
(D) Hurricane

If 92L doesn't become Alberto, when will it form?
(A) Later this month
(B) Early June
(C) Late June
(D) Early July
(E) Late July or Later

If 90E doesn't become Aletta, when will it form?
(A) Next Week
(B) Later this month
(C) June
(D) July
GUYS, NHC info about 92L

awesome!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121739
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.
763. SLU
Quoting yqt1001:
Coming together beautifully. O_o



Only hurricanes have eyes. If it looks like a cyclone, it probably is. Surprise, surprise!! If this systems works out as well as the GFS's proposed Caribbean development, we could have 2 named storms by June 1st.
92L appears to be forming an eye wall. latest sat photo is showing what maybe an eye trying to form. this system is a very strong sub tropical/storm and could be very close to hurricane strengh
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time!
92L will amount to...
(A) A May Invest(Nothing more)
(B) Sub-tropical storm
(C) Sub-tropical storm that strengthens into a tropical storm
(D) Hurricane

90E will amount to...
(A) Nothing more than an Invest
(B) Tropical Depression
(C) Tropical Storm
(D) Hurricane

If 92L doesn't become Alberto, when will it form?
(A) Later this month
(B) Early June
(C) Late June
(D) Early July
(E) Late July or Later

If 90E doesn't become Aletta, when will it form?
(A) Next Week
(B) Later this month
(C) June
(D) July

A
A (90E has really fallen apart)
B
A
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time!
92L will amount to...
(A) A May Invest(Nothing more)
(B) Sub-tropical storm
(C) Sub-tropical storm that strengthens into a tropical storm
(D) Hurricane

90E will amount to...
(A) Nothing more than an Invest
(B) Tropical Depression
(C) Tropical Storm
(D) Hurricane

If 92L doesn't become Alberto, when will it form?
(A) Later this month
(B) Early June
(C) Late June
(D) Early July
(E) Late July or Later

If 90E doesn't become Aletta, when will it form?
(A) Next Week
(B) Later this month
(C) June
(D) July


A,A,A,A... Just not quite time yet, but still interesting to watch!
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.
Quoting Tazmanian:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.


Oh, God, here we go...
40% in both basins!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time!
92L will amount to...
(A) A May Invest(Nothing more)
(B) Sub-tropical storm
(C) Sub-tropical storm that strengthens into a tropical storm
(D) Hurricane

90E will amount to...
(A) Nothing more than an Invest
(B) Tropical Depression
(C) Tropical Storm
(D) Hurricane

If 92L doesn't become Alberto, when will it form?
(A) Later this month
(B) Early June
(C) Late June
(D) Early July
(E) Late July or Later

If 90E doesn't become Aletta, when will it form?
(A) Next Week
(B) Later this month
(C) June
(D) July

B,B,B,A
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time!
92L will amount to...
(A) A May Invest(Nothing more)
(B) Sub-tropical storm
(C) Sub-tropical storm that strengthens into a tropical storm
(D) Hurricane

90E will amount to...
(A) Nothing more than an Invest
(B) Tropical Depression
(C) Tropical Storm
(D) Hurricane

If 92L doesn't become Alberto, when will it form?
(A) Later this month
(B) Early June
(C) Late June
(D) Early July
(E) Late July or Later

If 90E doesn't become Aletta, when will it form?
(A) Next Week
(B) Later this month
(C) June
(D) July

Im thinking (A) as of right now cause of uncertainty with the NHC.
(B) no Aletta from 90E
(A) Maybe Alberto later
(A) Next week models show 92E coming in and becoming Aletta which i believe.
40% out for 92L.
40% for 90E.

Both the Eastern Pacific Hurricane season and the Atlantic Hurricane season have started.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Is it possible they could jump right into advisories without a TWO mention? Because it's pretty obvious the winds are at TS strength so if they determine it meets the criteria wouldn't they just initiate advisories?
yes advisories could be needed if anything because of the islands just to the north of it hmmm
Quoting yqt1001:

I dont get it, if you say 92L will become a subtropical storm, then are you saying we'll see Beryl in late June?
latest pics fron NRL can attest to this
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
GUYS, NHC info about 92L

awesome!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121739
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.


Aww, yeah... LET IT BEGIN!


Latest ASCAT 92L
and it looks like they got the message
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I dont get it, if you say 92L will become a subtropical storm, then are you saying we'll see Beryl in late June?


You said if 92L doesn't become Alberto. :P If it doesn't form now I don't think we will see it until late June.
Poor forecaster Beven... All alone at the NHC on the day both basins decide to spring to life

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1040 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

40% for 92L. Incredible
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121739
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

We're in buisness people!
Thank you Beven.
Quoting yqt1001:


You said if 92L doesn't become Alberto. :P If it doesn't form now I don't think we will see it until late June.

Oh, lol, sorry for my own confusion
Here's what the NHC is waiting for naming it - consistency. It's only been invested for a few hours, if it still looks like the way it does now in 6 hours or even better then the NHC will probably go ahead and name it Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto.


This is an eye!
Dare I say.... ANNULAR?
The blog is about to start going 100 mph, get ready people! Strap in! and put youre helmets on!
What a cute circle.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
40% out for 92L.
40% for 90E.

Both the Eastern Pacific Hurricane season and the Atlantic Hurricane season have started.


It starts when they're renumbered, not when they're tagged.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The blog is about to start going 100 mph, get ready people! Strap in! and put youre helmets on!

Just imagine if this thing was near Florida...
Quoting WxGeekVA:


This is an eye!
Dare I say.... ANNULAR?


Convection isn't really deep enough for it to be an eyewall.

NOAA OSCAT



Quoting CybrTeddy:
Here's what the NHC is waiting for naming it - consistency. It's only been invested for a few hours, if it still looks like the way it does now in 6 hours or even better then the NHC will probably go ahead and name it Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto.

+10 totally agree. Keep it going 92L! If you want that name, you gotta work for it!
Ya se está prendiendo la temporada 2012. Lo siento no hablo inglés, ya que soy Mexicano y de Cancún
Quoting nigel20:

Aww cute little circle.
Great call by the NHC!
Quoting wxgeek723:


It starts when they're renumbered, not when they're tagged.


Tell that to the blog :P
Quoting WxGeekVA:


This is an eye!
Dare I say.... ANNULAR?

It really is a beautiful storm, tropical or not

And the blog goes wild!!!
Dare I say it, I think the trolls are still in hibernation...
GFS at 45 Hr


WHICH ONE IS GOING TO MAKE IT FIRST?

or
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Dare I say it, I think the trolls are still in hibernation...

Shhhhh... Don't jinx it.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
GFS at 45 Hr

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/over view2/color_lrg/latestfull.jpg

WHICH ONE IS GOING TO MAKE IT FIRST?

or

90E is not impressing me whatsoever right now.
Wonder if NHC will use the new definition of subtropical:


Subtropical cyclone (significantly revised for 2012): A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and
have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast. Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Extratropical cyclone: A cyclone of any intensity for which the primary energy source is baroclinic, that is, results from the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses.

The definition of closed circulation refers to the earth-relative wind, and non-frontal means no surface or low-level baroclinic zones.
It looks like Ophelia
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
GFS at 45 Hr

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/over view2/color_lrg/latestfull.jpg

WHICH ONE IS GOING TO MAKE IT FIRST?

or




would that be per 92E be hid 90E?


Grace 2009



92L
It's been 4 hours since 92L was invested.

Then:


Now:


I'm so proud! :D
The blog has gone in to 3rd gear now that we have an invest in the atlantic
hey doc
are ya out there
may need a saturday afternoon update
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Grace 2009



92L


absolutely!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
GFS at 45 Hr


WHICH ONE IS GOING TO MAKE IT FIRST?

or

If we new that 90E and 92L were certainly going to get name, 92L would likely get named first.
I think i can conclude, our first african wave was May 5th, and our second emerged the 10th, nothing else though since.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Grace 2009



92L

They are similar in size and organization
.
12/1200 UTC 6.3N 112.8W T1.0/1.0 91E -- East Pacific
12/1145 UTC 9.9N 103.8W T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific
...and the blog goes wild.

If 92L keeps up in organization, expect a red circle at the next Special Tropical Weather Outlook. Maybe Alberto late tonight or tomorrow morning.
Deadliest Hurricanes in United States History

The largest loss of life from a hurricane is often caused by storm surge and flooding rather than the winds. Do not underestimate a lower category hurricane! None of the top five deadliest hurricanes in United States history was a Category 5 hurricane at landfall.


Deadliest Hurricane to Hit the United States


The Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 was the deadliest hurricane to ever hit the United States and caused between 8000 and 12000 deaths. The storm reached the Texas coast south of Galveston on September 8 as a Category 4 hurricane with a storm surge of 8 to 15 feet. The lack of warning and the high storm surge caused this storm to have the highest death toll of any United States hurricane.


Second Deadliest Hurricane to Hit the United States


The 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane which claimed 2500-3000 lives was the second deadliest hurricane in United States history. Most of the deaths from this hurricane were caused by a lake surge of 6 to 9 feet that inundated areas surrounding Lake Okeechobee.


Third Deadliest Hurricane to Hit the United States


Hurricane Katrina of 2005, the third deadliest hurricane in United States history, killed at least 1500 people. Katrina made landfall in the United States at three different locations. Katrina%u2019s first land fall was near the Miami-Dade / Broward county line in Florida, dropping 10 to 14 inches of rain, just after reaching hurricane status. After crossing Florida it strengthened in the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall near Buras, Louisiana and then made landfall again near the Louisiana / Mississippi border as a Category 3 hurricane. Katrina%u2019s highest storm surge of 25 to 28 feet occurred along the Mississippi coast. Also, this storm dropped 8 to 12 inches of rain inland from the northern Gulf coast and spawned thirty-three tornadoes.

Five Deadliest Hurricanes in U.S. History
Hurricane Year Category Deaths
Great Galveston Hurricane 1900 4 8000-12000
Okeechobee Hurricane 1928 4 2500-3000
Hurricane Katrina 2005 3 1500
Louisiana Hurricane 1893 4 1100-1400
S. Carolina / Georgia 1893 3 1000-2000
Data from NOAA.

Damage from the Great Galveston Hurricane

Damage from the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 was caused by the hurricane and resulting storm surge. This was the greatest natural disaster in terms of loss of life in U.S. history. (top photo) So many people were killed that horse carts were used to transport bodies through the streets of Galveston. The bodies were placed on barges and buried at sea. Others were burned in huge funeral pyres. (bottom photo) Photos and captions from NOAA


Highest Wind Speed at Landfall in US History


Meteorologists use sustained wind speed to determine what category a hurricane is. To the left is a table showing what wind speeds define the different storm categories. The wind speed must last for over one minute to be considered a sustained wind while a gust is the highest winds for a three second period with in the one minute sustained reading. Most of the highest wind speeds at landfall are estimated because of damage to or lack of wind recording insturments.


Hurricane With the Highest Wind Speed at Landfall in United States History


Hurricane Camille of 1969 had the highest wind speed at landfall at an estimated 190 miles per hour when it struck the Mississippi coast. This windspeed at landfall is the highest ever recorded worldwide. Actual maximum sustained winds will never be known because the hurricane destroyed all the wind-recording instruments in the landfall area. Columbia, Mississippi, located 75 miles inland, reported 120 mph sustained winds.


Hurricane With the Second Highest Wind Speed at Landfall in United States History


Hurricane Andrew holds the title of the hurricane with the second highest recorded wind speeds at landfall with winds estimated at 167 miles per hour as it crossed south Florida. Many of the instruments for measuring wind speeds were destroyed by the hurricane which leaves the actual sustained wind speeds unknown.


Hurricane With the Third Highest Wind Speed at Landfall in United States History


The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane had estimated winds of 161 mile per hour, the third highest wind speed at landfall of any hurricane to strike the United States. The wind speed is estimated, using hurricanes with similar pressure readings at landfall, because of the lack of wind instruments at the time.

Five Hurricanes With the Highest Wind Speed
Hurricane Year Category Wind Speed (mph)
Hurricane Camille 1969 5 190
Hurricane Andrew 1992 5 167
"Labor Day" Hurricane 1935 5 161
Indianola Hurricane 1886 4 155
Hurricane Charley 2004 4 150
Data from NOAA.

Sa
Blog update! I hope you enjoy and find it informative.
Odd 92L in the Atlantic - Another Grace situation? 5/12/12
90E goes wild!

What about Alberto/Beryl/Chris if something else pops up, that might form in the Gulf.
Does anyone still see that happening?

Also another tornado warning in MS/AL.(i couldnt help it)
Grace and 92L are too similar. We could expect a renumber possibly tomorrow morning if 92l stays organized.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
90L goes wild!




thats 90E
I wanna see 92L refire convection before I say it's gonna happen or not... The convection has slightly weakened since it last fired.
828. MahFL
A surface low is heading to N Florida from the GOM.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
What about Alberto/Beryl/Chris if something else pops up, that might form in the Gulf.
Does anyone still see that happening?

Also another tornado warning in MS/AL.(i couldnt help it)


Report that a tornado touched down earlier from a different cell in Stone County, MS. This new tornado-warned storm has even stronger rotation than the previous one.
Quoting Ameister12:
Grace and 92L are too similar. We could expect a renumber possibly tonight, or tomorrow if it 92L keeps stays organized.


Agreed.
NHC claims that 92L is non-tropical. Is there any proof of it being subtropical yet?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I wanna see 92L refire convection before I say it's gonna happen or not... The convection has slightly weakened since it last fired.

It has also jogged Northeast a bit, and into -1C cooler waters, don't know if it'll impact greatly, just though i'd mention that.
look what i found for 92L and 90E


12/1745 UTC 9.8N 104.7W TOO WEAK 90E -- East Pacific
12/1745 UTC 33.5N 30.5W ST3.5 92L -- Atlantic
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I wanna see 92L refire convection before I say it's gonna happen or not... The convection has slightly weakened since it last fired.


True, however look at the organization it has obtained with that convection. When it fired, all the convection was displaced off the N of the COC, now it's covering the COC in a CDO.
Quoting yqt1001:
NHC claims that 92L is non-tropical. Is there any proof of it being subtropical yet?

Not quite, I imagine it'll be shallow warm-core by Late tonight. But if it can't stay as impressive as it was about an hour ago, then we all might be jumping the gun... Don't see that 40% chance in it as of right now(more like 30). It needs to refire convection before im fully onboard.
000
AXNT20 KNHC 121736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012



ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
35N75W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N62W TO
27N70W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N61W 22N63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 60W-64W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 25N70W 21N72W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 70W-72W. A
DEEP 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 32N30W.
THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OVER A LARGE AREA N OF 16N
BETWEEN 15W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST N OF THE
CENTER FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 30W-32W. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF
SUBTROPICAL FORMATION WITH NEAR GALE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE
E AT 10-15 KT...AND FOR THE DEEP LOW TO MOVE LITTLE.

Dr. Masters if you happen to be reading this, when will there be a new update from you on 92L and 90/91E? Really interested to see your thoughts on this! TIA!
821. hydrus 1:09 PM CDT on May 12, 2012
Deadliest Hurricanes in United States History

The largest loss of life from a hurricane is often caused by storm surge and flooding rather than the winds. Do not underestimate a lower category hurricane! None of the top five deadliest hurricanes in United States history was a Category 5 hurricane at landfall.

Just thought that needed repeating. :)
12/1745 UTC 33.5N 30.5W ST3.5 92L -- Atlantic
Quoting CybrTeddy:


True, however look at the organization it has obtained with that convection. When it fired, all the convection was displaced off the N of the COC, now it's covering the COC in a CDO.
Which is a tropical characteristic, not sub-tropical, also the windfield is close to the center, which is also tropical... it's basically a non-tropical/tropical hybrid right now, not much of any kind of sub-tropical charcteristics, if the non-tropical characteristics would shift to sub-tropical, then we have ourselves Alberto.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Not quite, I imagine it'll be shallow warm-core by Late tonight. But if it can't stay as impressive as it was about an hour ago, then we all might be jumping the gun... Don't see that 40% chance in it as of right now(more like 30). It needs to refire convection before im fully onboard.


Yeah convection is weakening a bit and the eye feature is a bit less defined.



It's only been an hour since the last time convection fired though.

12/1745 UTC 33.5N 30.5W ST3.5 92L -- Atlantic

Taz got me to the punch. Very impressive T# numbers.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Dr. Masters if you happen to be reading this, when will there be a new update from you on 92L and 90/91E? Really interested to see your thoughts on this! TIA!




91E is RIP



there olny 90E and 92L
I expect Dr Masters to make a new blog soon.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I expect Dr Masters to make a new blog soon.



he will likey make a new blog on monday
T# estimates for 3.5 =
55 KTS
63 MPH
994 mb
Quoting Tazmanian:



he will likey make a new blog on monday

tomorrow
850mb

Im gonna take a break from the 92L Frenzy. Be back in an hour or so.
Quoting Ameister12:

Shhhhh... Don't jinx it.


There was one on here last night and several here were interacting with the troll and didn't even figure it out.
How many years have had 2 atlantic may storms?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
T# estimates for 3.5 =
55 KTS
63 MPH
994 mb

Unfortunately I doubt we'll be getting any aircraft recon info unless Portugal sends one out
I think the NHC is going to take its time for upgrading 92L until it begins to weaken so that they don't use the name Alberto yet...just like always for this type of storms...

I hate that!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

tomorrow




no monday
18z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2012051218, , BEST, 0, 335N, 305W, 45, 1009, LO
This definitely is shaping up to be one of these Atlantic hurricane seasons with a highly active start and then a quiet rest of season...or maybe not so quiet, but now I'm counting on the E PAC getting the most in terms of total activity. Also, my instincts tell me this year somewhere in the Atlantic, there will be a highly destructive and deadly hurricane...it just takes one.
Quoting PedleyCA:


There was one on here last night and several here were interacting with the troll and didn't even figure it out.

Hey pedley. What's up?
50 mph.

AL, 92, 2012051218, , BEST, 0, 335N, 305W, 45, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 20, 20, 1020, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

I was beat to it...
Quoting Tazmanian:




no monday


if i win u get me GRLEvel2Analyst.
If u win, i give u nothing :)

Just kidding.

About the NHC not wanting to use Alberto, would you?
It takes a lot of work to have a named storm, issue advisories, etc, for a storm an ocean away.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Unfortunately I doubt we'll be getting any aircraft recon info unless Portugal sends one out


Maybe we'll get lucky and get some ship reports.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


if i win u get me GRLEvel2Analyst.
If u win, i give u nothing :)

Just kidding.

About the NHC not wanting to use Alberto, would you?
It takes a lot of work to have a named storm, issue advisories, etc, for a storm an ocean away.


That would be pretty ignorant of the NHC if they were to do that.

It's part of their basin of responsibility and if a TC develops there it is their responsibility to warn anyone that may be in the way.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


if i win u get me GRLEvel2Analyst.
If u win, i give u nothing :)

Just kidding.

About the NHC not wanting to use Alberto, would you?
It takes a lot of work to have a named storm, issue advisories, etc, for a storm an ocean away.


that's THEIR JOB! $$$$ GET PAID FOR
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


if i win u get me GRLEvel2Analyst.
If u win, i give u nothing :)

Just kidding.

About the NHC not wanting to use Alberto, would you?
It takes a lot of work to have a named storm, issue advisories, etc, for a storm an ocean away.




YAWN
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


if i win u get me GRLEvel2Analyst.
If u win, i give u nothing :)

Just kidding.

About the NHC not wanting to use Alberto, would you?
It takes a lot of work to have a named storm, issue advisories, etc, for a storm an ocean away.


If they named Cindy, Franklin, and Jose last year, and some of the other "fish storms" of recently, they can name this. It's not a personal decision it's if something meets the criteria or not.
Strong invest, I'd say. If this one gets named, we have a strong possibility of 2 named storms before June 1. I'm not sure if that has ever happened.

If you think back to previous weeks, it seems like every thunderstorm complex that moves into the Gulf wants to spin up into something. We've already had two other invests this year as well. This might be one of those years where the atmosphere just has a little extra spin, causing something to become tropical that wouldn't have otherwise been anything of significance. We'll see.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that's THEIR JOB! $$$$ GET PAID FOR

Yeah I would lose a ton of respect for the NHC if they were really just too lazy to name it... Of course we could never know for sure but still if there is something anywhere in the Atlantic that deserves a name the NHC shouldn't hesitate to start advisories
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
50 mph.

AL, 92, 2012051218, , BEST, 0, 335N, 305W, 45, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 20, 20, 1020, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

I was beat to it...


This could very well get a renumber soon.
5 hours since invested:



It's hard not to be proud of it:
Quoting yqt1001:
5 hours since invested:



It's hard not to be proud of it:


Satellite view is going out soon... they better hurry
The thing with 92L is that it is probably as strong as it's going to get right now. It could get a little stronger, but SSTs won't allow it to get much stronger. The convective process that it has gone through to reach its current strength is nothing short of amazing. Persistence will be the key for the NHC naming it, though.
Guys, the reason it would be possible for this system to become tropical or subtropical, is that while water temperatures generally must be 80 degrees for tropical formation and maintaining intensity, that isn't always necessarily the case. If the atmosphere is unstable enough, for example, steep lapse rates, especially steep low level lapse rates, the cold water becomes relatively warm with respect to sharp drop-off of temperatures.


I'm not sure why people are using the term "deep convection" because satellite indicates this system has no deep convection, as one would expect for a system over colder water with at least some tropical characteristics.
Yes it does have convection, you could call it organized convection ,but there is a difference between 20,000 ft tall convective activity, and 50,000 ft convective activity, the latter would be deep convection, 20,000 ft is not.
But, like I said, in a colder water and colder air environment, that is exactly what should be expected.



For example, I have seen rare cases where hurricanes maintain intensity and sometimes even strengthen under a rare low shear environment all the way into the north Atlantic over upper 60's to low 70's water temps. While the convection in the hurricane becomes not nearly as deep, what likely allows the hurricane to maintain intensity is the low shear combined with steep low level lapse rates, allowing there to be as much efficiency for the hurricane "heat engine" as one might find with warmer water, although because the water is cooler and there is less energy, the convection was still not as deep. That being said a hurricane over such colder waters would be relatively "drier"(not as intense rainfall rates) due to not as strong of convection and relatively drier air, but it still maintained wind force.


What we are finding with this system might be a very similar process taking shape. Yes the low pressure has less energy to work with, but given enough instability and low enough shear, it could become tropical. However, I would imagine if the same conditions existed over warmer water we would see a system with much more impressive convection, as well as quickly strengthening TC instead of struggling to become one at all.
All Invest 92L really needs to do is transition some to warm-core to make it subtropical, since they claim it is non tropical. Subtropical systems don't require deep convection like tropical systems do, and this:


12/1745 UTC 33.5N 30.5W ST3.5 92L -- Atlantic


is worthy of an upgrade.
May 11, 2011

May 11, 2012
876. wxmod
Storms need clean air. Orange and red is the heaviest residual Sahara dust.





18z Best track for 90E.

EP, 90, 2012051218, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1053W, 25, 1009, LO


May 11, 2011

May 11, 2012
Quoting MississippiWx:
Strong invest, I'd say. If this one gets named, we have a strong possibility of 2 named storms before June 1. I'm not sure if that has ever happened.

If you think back to previous weeks, it seems like every thunderstorm complex that moves into the Gulf wants to spin up into something. We've already had two other invests this year as well. This might be one of those years where the atmosphere just has a little extra spin, causing something to become tropical that wouldn't have otherwise been anything of significance. We'll see.


In recent years, the closet we've gotten was 2007.

Andrea formed on May 9th, 2007.
Barry post-season was found to have been a TD on May 31st, 2007.

1908 had two pre-season storms.
1887 also had two pre-season storms.
Quoting nigel20:

Hey pedley. What's up?


Standing Watch for Trolls. How ya doing down over in the Caribbean?
Convection has been weakening over the past two hours. If it keeps this up, it won't get a name.

1645 UTC:



1800 UTC (Latest):

I have a new blog up with my thoughts on 92L

A Wild 92L Appears!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


In recent years, the closet we've gotten was 2007.

Andrea formed on May 9th, 2007.
Barry post-season was found to have been a TD on May 31st, 2007.

1908 had two pre-season storms.
1887 also had two pre-season storms.


I always doubt those "storms" from the early 1900s. Have to wonder if there were really 2 preseason storms in 1908 and 1887 or if they were just strong extra-tropical low pressure areas.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I have a new blog up with my thoughts on 92L

A Wild 92L Appears!


Love the blog title. :P Rather fitting.
We know 92L is near the Azores, in a perfect world the NHC would loose jurisdiction here to a European Weather Agency...this is not a perfect world though, they will sit their on their multi million dollar computers and procrastinate. At least, for the sake of the science give people a more detailed explanation of what is and isn't subtropical...and elaborate on the characteristics of this storm, you don't have to name it but at least elaborate past the normal paragraph blurb.
Hot off the press...

Detailed tropical update on my blog of all of the Atlantic tropics. I hope it is interesting and makes a lot of sense....

I plan to issue these sort of updates daily beginning on June 1...so I am using the opportunity of these early disturbances to preview them. Leave comments on how to make these discussion better....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Convection has been weakening over the past two hours. If it keeps this up, it won't get a name.

1645 UTC:



1800 UTC (Latest):


Yeah it's going to be very hard for it to regenerate anything at this point... We'll probably continue to see a slow decrease in convection... I'd anticipate a TWO at some point soon to lower its chances because it is probably past its peak at this point.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Convection has been weakening over the past two hours. If it keeps this up, it won't get a name.

1645 UTC:



1800 UTC (Latest):



Still no where near as terrifying as Jose.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Convection has been weakening over the past two hours. If it keeps this up, it won't get a name.

1645 UTC:



1800 UTC (Latest):



Isn't that pretty standard at this point though? With the D-min/max (i always forget which is which) doesn't convection typically weaken during the evening, and refire in the early AM. Granted that it is at a pretty critical point, and probably with not much time for favorable conditions.

Edit: but yeah, doesn't look as hot as before


I don't think 92L will make it to Alberto.
Quoting MississippiWx:


I always doubt those "storms" from the early 1900s. Have to wonder if there were really 2 preseason storms in 1908 and 1887 or if they were just strong extra-tropical low pressure areas.


Well, one was a Category 2 hurricane in March that was directly recorded.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Standing Watch for Trolls. How ya doing down over in the Caribbean?

It's sunny at the moment, but I had some rain about 30 minutes ago
Alas, the cycle continues.

30 minutes ago: Defiant S-TS, why won't they name it!?

Now: Convection fading, not going to make it to Alberto.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Alas, the cycle continues.

30 minutes ago: Defiant S-TS, why won't they name it!?

Now: Convection fading, not going to make it to Alberto.

It's not sustaining convection, which is a must in designating cyclones, subtropical or not.
It was fun while it lasted...
if i re call Jose did not have any t-storms at all and it got in name so why not 92L?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's not sustaining convection, which is a must in designating cyclones, subtropical or not.


Most cyclone's of it's weak nature don't this time of day, even in the Atlantic.

If all the convection is gone, that's another story.
Quoting Tazmanian:
if i re call Jose did not have any t-storms at all and it got in name so why not 92L?

Probably because we're in the off season now while Jose was in the regular season... Also Jose presented more of a threat to a populated area (Bermuda) than 92L.
I find it kinda funny that just because 92L's convection has waned, that everybody is giving up on it. It could always start to strengthen again. Typical blog cycle. :P
Quoting Ameister12:
I find it kinda funny that just because 92L's convection has waned, that everybody is giving up on it. It could always start to strengthen again.


Classic blog cycle, my concern is that there isn't enough time for the convection to redevelop.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Most cyclone's of it's weak nature don't this time of day, even in the Atlantic.

If all the convection is gone, that's another story.

It's not too far off from that lol.

Quoting Ameister12:
I find it kinda funny that just because 92L's convection has waned, that everybody is giving up on it. It could always start to strengthen again.


Yep...one tiny flare up and people will be gushing over it again if the past is any indication.
Quoting Ameister12:
I find it kinda funny that just because 92L's convection has waned, that everybody is giving up on it. It could always start to strengthen again.

The odds of 92L restrengthening are a lot lower than the odds a typical invest has of restrengthening after a loss of convection though because of the SST's... If 92L lost convection like this in the Gulf or Caribbean it could easily refire because of the warm water but it would take a miracle for this to get its act back together where it is now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's not too far off from that lol.



Well, it didn't have much to begin with.

Let's see what the night brings.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



The low appears to be pretty much closed, according to the ASCAT.
Of course, it could just be d-min affecting the system like stated in post #890. I don't know.

We'll have to see how it evolves over the next 12 hours.
Interesting run Link
If this blog was the arbiter of which storms get named and which storms do not, we would exhaust the Greek alphabet.
NOAA got the floater up.

Earlier when 92L looked its best.
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

AL922012 - INVEST

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
NOAA got the floater up.



Its about freakin' time...LOL! I wonder why there isn't a floater for E-Pac Invest 90E....

I also never thought I'd see the day when there are Special Tropical Weather Outlooks in the E-Pac and in the Atlantic at the same time...especially before May 15...
The blog in back in 1st gear now that the convection over 92L has wane
I hope there's something new tonight
If Subtropical Storm Jerry in 2007 (before it became TS Jerry) and TS Jose in 2011 were declared...I wonder why this isn't getting declared....LOL
Is invest 92L 50 mph?
921. txjac
Are you getting much rain Pat?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Interesting run Link






Yes it is!
No tropical/subtropical structure yet.






Working its way down though.
Quoting txjac:
Are you getting much rain Pat?


Thunderstorm rumbling now here Uptown, but has been scattered most of the day.


Almost a tropical feel here,Humid beaucoup as well.
I am also paying a little attention to the blob due N of the Lesser Antilles and E of the Bahamas....anyone else noticed?
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Is invest 92L 50 mph?

Yes.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Its about freakin' time...LOL! I wonder why there isn't a floater for E-Pac Invest 90E....

I also never thought I'd see the day when there are Special Tropical Weather Outlooks in the E-Pac and in the Atlantic at the same time...especially before May 15...



90E Floater
Although 92L isn't as impressive, we still can't give up on it. It still could become our first named storm of 2012.



000
AXNT20 KNHC 121736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
35N75W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N62W TO
27N70W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N61W 22N63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 60W-64W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 25N70W 21N72W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 70W-72W. A
DEEP 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 32N30W.
THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OVER A LARGE AREA N OF 16N
BETWEEN 15W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST N OF THE
CENTER FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 30W-32W. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF
SUBTROPICAL FORMATION WITH NEAR GALE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE
E AT 10-15 KT...AND FOR THE DEEP LOW TO MOVE LITTLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
Quoting Ameister12:
Although 92L isn't as impressive, we still can't give up on it. It still could become our first named storm of 2012.


We'll have to see. It has about 48 hours left for marginally favorable (~20 knots) wind shear before it increases, but Sea Surface Temperatures are already on the decline. Should drop to 18C tomorrow.
Poll time. The National Hurricane Center consists of:

A) Uneducated, inexperienced fools who know less about tropical weather than anyone--especially anonymous commenters on an internet weather forum--and therefore miss out on naming obvious tropical cyclones.

B) Ignorant, incompetent morons willing to name any swirl of clouds no matter how unimpressive just so they can justify their jobs (and/or "prove" AGW).

C) Both A and B. Often at the same time.

D) Highly professional meteorologists who have centuries of combined tropical weather education and experience, and as such make the very best decisions they can based on the very best information available.


What atcf site do you guys use? I have been having a very tough time getting a good atcf site now to keep an eye on information
Quoting Neapolitan:
Poll time. The National Hurricane Center consists of:

A) Uneducated, inexperienced fools who know less about tropical weather than anyone--especially anonymous commenters on an internet weather forum--and therefore miss out on naming obvious tropical cyclones.

B) Ignorant, incompetent morons willing to name any swirl of clouds no matter how unimpressive just so they can justify their jobs (and/or "prove" AGW).

C) Both A and B. Often at the same time.

D) Highly professional meteorologists who have centuries of combined tropical weather education and experience, and as such make the very best decisions they can based on the very best information available.




The answer is D, but what is your point? Just curious as to why you would post this question now
Quoting Neapolitan:
Poll time. The National Hurricane Center consists of:

A) Uneducated, inexperienced fools who know less about tropical weather than anyone--especially anonymous commenters on an internet weather forum--and therefore miss out on naming obvious tropical cyclones.

B) Ignorant, incompetent morons willing to name any swirl of clouds no matter how unimpressive just so they can justify their jobs (and/or "prove" AGW).

C) Both A and B. Often at the same time.

D) Highly professional meteorologists who have centuries of combined tropical weather education and experience, and as such make the very best decisions they can based on the very best information available.



Obviously C. Remember Jose?

No, I'm just joking. It's obviously D.
Quoting ncstorm:






Yes it is!


Not at all tropical

Quoting Hurricanes101:
What atcf site do you guys use? I have been having a very tough time getting a good atcf site now to keep an eye on information

This one.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Poll time. The National Hurricane Center consists of:

A) Uneducated, inexperienced fools who know less about tropical weather than anyone--especially anonymous commenters on an internet weather forum--and therefore miss out on naming obvious tropical cyclones.

B) Ignorant, incompetent morons willing to name any swirl of clouds no matter how unimpressive just so they can justify their jobs (and/or "prove" AGW).

C) Both A and B. Often at the same time.

D) Highly professional meteorologists who have centuries of combined tropical weather education and experience, and as such make the very best decisions they can based on the very best information available.



Definitely D
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This one.


didnt load for me
Quoting Neapolitan:
Poll time. The National Hurricane Center consists of:

A) Uneducated, inexperienced fools who know less about tropical weather than anyone--especially anonymous commenters on an internet weather forum--and therefore miss out on naming obvious tropical cyclones.

B) Ignorant, incompetent morons willing to name any swirl of clouds no matter how unimpressive just so they can justify their jobs (and/or "prove" AGW).

C) Both A and B. Often at the same time.

D) Highly professional meteorologists who have centuries of combined tropical weather education and experience, and as such make the very best decisions they can based on the very best information available.



D of course. Sure they make decisions we might not agree with, or might even be completely wrong, but even the smartest people on this blog make mistakes too.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


didnt load for me

Yeah, it gives me the same problem. Just keep refreshing until it decides it wants to load.
933.

E. It's all RIP, everything's RIP.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Poll time. The National Hurricane Center consists of:

A) Uneducated, inexperienced fools who know less about tropical weather than anyone--especially anonymous commenters on an internet weather forum--and therefore miss out on naming obvious tropical cyclones.

B) Ignorant, incompetent morons willing to name any swirl of clouds no matter how unimpressive just so they can justify their jobs (and/or "prove" AGW).

C) Both A and B. Often at the same time.

D) Highly professional meteorologists who have centuries of combined tropical weather education and experience, and as such make the very best decisions they can based on the very best information available.






Quoting Neapolitan:
Poll time. The National Hurricane Center consists of:

A) Uneducated, inexperienced fools who know less about tropical weather than anyone--especially anonymous commenters on an internet weather forum--and therefore miss out on naming obvious tropical cyclones.

B) Ignorant, incompetent morons willing to name any swirl of clouds no matter how unimpressive just so they can justify their jobs (and/or "prove" AGW).

C) Both A and B. Often at the same time.

D) Highly professional meteorologists who have centuries of combined tropical weather education and experience, and as such make the very best decisions they can based on the very best information available.




Based solely on comments made on this site I'd have to choose 'C'. ;o)
Its pretty apparant 92L is barely alive. Its convection has disinegrated.
Barely 92L
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Its pretty apparant 92L is barely alive. Its convection has disinegrated.
Barely 92L

I wouldn't say it is barely alive and that its convection has "disintegrated". It just isn't as intense as it was before.

The next TWO will probably keep 40%.
Quoting Ameister12:

D of course. Sure they make decisions we might not agree, or might even be completely wrong, but even the smartest people on this blog make mistakes too.


nice way to put it
a 60%
b 30%

c 10%
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



90E Floater


Hmmm...I usually get the floaters from this site:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

I don't see 92L or 90E floaters on that link...but thanks for posting your link...that helps...
May 12, 2012

Daily SOI: 12.50
30 day avarage: 4.98
I could see another blowup of convection, the convection is deceiving if you look at visible you can see the circulation is still steadily moving nne at 3-5 mph, but the convection is running off and dying... This time is when we need to see a blow up of convection if we are going to get a named storm out of this. This was why I was hesitant to be onboard with this, it looked impressive, but I was thinking ahead and wanted to see what was going to happen first.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Hmmm...I usually get the floaters from this site:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

I don't see 92L or 90E floaters on that link...but thanks for posting your link...that helps...



Link
For the guy that said that disturbance east of 90E will becoming absorbed and that it wouldn't stay a separate entity, he is still wrong. You can see two separate areas of vorticity that are becoming farther and farther apart as 90E slowly moves west-northwest.

Good TCHP in the Caribbean.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



Link


Thanks for posting that link...I am bookmarking it now...its a better site for getting the floaters...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Good TCHP in the Caribbean.

Yeah, I saw that as well
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Good TCHP in the Caribbean.

Look at where 2010 was.



92L and 90E have just reminded me how anxious I am for hurricane season.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Good TCHP in the Caribbean.


And also east of the Windward Islands.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Look at where 2010 was.



92L and 90E have just reminded me how anxious I am for hurricane season.

Wow! I didn't realise how far ahead 2010 was....luckily most of the storms stayed away from the Caribbean during the peak of 2010's hurricane season
Deleted cuz as it says below, New Blog
New Blog!!