WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

-28° to 72° in 6 days: a wild ride in Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:09 PM GMT on February 17, 2011

The plants and animals of northeast Oklahoma are officially freaking out. Cold air pouring in behind last week's remarkable snowstorm over northeast Oklahoma brought unprecedented cold to the state on February 10, with a bone-chilling -31°F recorded at Nowata and -28°F at Bartlesville. These were the coldest temperatures ever measured in Oklahoma. But what a difference a week makes! Yesterday afternoon, just six days after experiencing -28°F, Bartlesville hit 72°F--an incredible 100°F temperature swing in just six days. Nearby Ponca City, which hit -25°F six days previously, hit 75°F yesterday, also achieving a 100°F temperature swing in just six days.


Figure 1. Record snows of 25" piled up in northeast Oklahoma near Afton on February 9, 2011. The fresh coasting of snow, which is a very excellent emitter of infrared radiation to space, enabled temperatures in Northeast Oklahoma to plunge to record lows on the morning of February 10. Image credit: wunderphotographer Bladerider.

A 100+ degree temperature change in just six days is a phenomenally rare event. I checked the records for over twenty major cities in the Midwest in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana, and could not find any examples of a 100-degree temperature swing in so short a period of time. The closest I came was a 108° swing in temperature in fourteen days at Valentine, Nebraska, from -27°F on March 11, 1998 to 82°F on March 25, 1998. Valentine also had a 105°F temperature swing in fifteen days from November 29, 1901 (71°F) to December 14, 1901 (-34°F.) Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, lists the world record for fastest 24-hour change in temperature as the 103°F warm-up from -54° to 49° that occurred on January 14 - 15, 1972, during a chinook wind in Lowe, Montana. This week's remarkable roller coaster ride of temperatures in Oklahoma is truly a remarkable event that has few parallels in recorded history.

Darwin sets its all-time 24-hour rainfall record
Darwin, Australia suffered its greatest 24-hour rainfall in its history on Wednesday, when a deluge of 13.4 inches (339.4 mm) hit the city when Tropical Cyclone Carlos formed virtually on top of city and remained nearly stationary. Over the past three days, Carlos has dumped a remarkable 25.37" (644.6 mm) of rain on the Darwin (population 125,000), capital of Australia's Northern Territory. Carlos has moved slowly inland today, and continues to dump rain on Darwin, but these rains will gradually subside over the next few days as the storm weakens and moves farther inland. Not surprisingly, the rains have triggered major flooding in the Darwin area. The heavy rains in Darwin are due to the very slow motion of the storm, which has been able to keep a significant portion of its circulation over the warm 30°C (86°F) waters off the coast. These water temperatures are near normal for this time of year. Australia's west coast is also watching Tropical Cyclone Dianne, which is expected to remain offshore as it moves southwards, parallel to the coast.


Figure 2. Radar image of Tropical Cyclone Carlos taken at 14:35 UTC on February 17, 2011. Spiral bands from Tropical Storm Carlos were rotating clockwise onto shore near Darwin, adding to that city's record rainfall totals. Image credit: Australia Bureau of Meteorology.



Carlos' deluge add to the misery of flood-weary Australia, which has suffered from some of its greatest natural disasters in history in 2011. Earlier this month, Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Yasi smashed into Queensland with 155 mph winds, making it the strongest hurricane to hit Queensland since at least 1918. Yasi was the second most expensive tropical cyclone ever to hit Australia, with damages currently estimated near $3 billion. Australia is still reeling from torrential deluges that affected the states of Queensland and Victoria November - January, triggering flooding that caused the most expensive natural disaster in Australian history. Damage estimates of the flood are speculative, but range from $10 - $30 billion. The floods were spawned by the rainiest September - November (spring) and December in Queensland's history, driven in part by La Niña-enhanced sea surface temperatures along the coast that were the warmest on record. However, all rivers in the flooded eastern half of Queensland have now fallen below flood level. Rainfall amounts in the coming week are expected to be in the 1 - 4 inch range, which should not cause any significant new flooding problems.

Tropical Cyclone Bingiza makes a 2nd landfall in Madagascar
On Monday, Tropical Cyclone Bingiza roared ashore over Northern Madagascar as a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. The storm is being blamed for six deaths, has left 15,000 homeless, and has destroyed 8,500 buildings. After re-emerging over the waters of the Mozambique Channel between Africa and Madagascar on Tuesday, Bingiza re-intensified, and made a second landfall along the southwest coast of Madagascar early today as a tropical storm. Bingiza is expected to dissipate over Madagascar tomorrow, but not before dumping very heavy rains capable of causing additional flooding problems on Madagascar's deforested mountain slopes.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Bingiza making its second landfall over Madagascar at 14 UTC on February 17, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Bingiza is just the second tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean (west of 90E) during the 2010 - 2011 season; this is an unusually low amount of activity for the basin. According to an email I received from Sebastien Langlade of the tropical cyclone forecasting office on La Reunion Island, January 2011 was the first January since accurate records began in 1998 that the Southwest Indian Ocean failed to record a single tropical storm. The only other storm in the basin so far this season has been Tropical Cyclone Abele (29 Nov - 4 Dec 2010), a Category 1 storm that stayed out to sea. Bingiza was the 4th major (Category 3 or stronger) tropical cyclone world-wide this year.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you for the update Jeff.
That's the Great Plains for you.

Incredible temperature fluctuations in such a short period of time.
"A 100 degree temperature change in just six days is a phenomenally rare event....This week's remarkable roller coaster ride of temperatures in Oklahoma is truly a remarkable event that has few parallels in recorded history."

Incredible. I've been wondering just how rare such dramatic temperature swings are. (FWIW, I have a brother in Ponca City who tells me it's the biggest weather change in the shortest time he's ever seen that didn't require flying or driving long distances.) Amazing.
Jeff, Yasi was a Cyclone not a Hurricane, here in the Southern Hemispere we call then Cyclones. Infact Hurricanes and Typhoones are Cyclones.

Why no mention of TC Dianne?






Or the formation of another Tropical Low in the South Pacific Islands.






Thanks for the new blog.
Most cities on the east coast have never had a month where temperatures have an 100 degree extreme range. Many cities on the west coast don't have a 100 degree range between their all time record highs and lows.

I'mm betting as you go further north in the plains, and in the foothills of the Rockies temperature ranges of 100 in less than a week become less rare. Montana has come very big swings in temperature. There's a location in Montana that had a 100 degree change in 24 hours from +44 to -56F.

If that was Celsius I'd be even more impressed.
WOW! I've seen a 100 degree temperature swing in a short period but it involved a rapid climb to 41,000 feet...
It is also more rare for the 100 swing to be warming up in relation to cooling down that swing.

In other words it is more rare for it to go from the lower number and warm up to the higher number then for a cold front to come through and drop temperatures 100 degrees.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Jeff, Yasi was a Cyclone not a Hurricane, here in the Southern Hemispere we call then Cyclones. Infact Hurricanes and Typhoones are Cyclones.

Why no mention of TC Dianne?


Thanks for the new blog.


I changed "hurricane" to "tropical cyclone", and included the YouTube link for the Darwin flooding, thanks for posting that. I also added a line about Dianne.

Jeff Masters
and in another 6 days from now we will be back to below freezing again down south

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
It is also more rare for the 100 swing to be warming up in relation to cooling down that swing.

In other words it is more rare for it to go from the lower number and warm up to the higher number then for a cold front to come through and drop temperatures 100 degrees.


Well, since there have been very few 100 degree differences, there's very little data.

In the records for that area, on one day, the 10th, there was about a 58 degree difference from max/min. It took a week for the warm-up.

Several times, people have reported the rapid cool-down after a cold front comes through. You normally don't hear of a rapid heating of 58 degrees in a single day.
Quoting hcubed:


Well, since there have been very few 100 degree differences, there's very little data.

In the records for that area, on one day, the 10th, there was about a 58 degree difference from max/min. It took a week for the warm-up.

Several times, people have reported the rapid cool-down after a cold front comes through. You normally don't hear of a rapid heating of 58 degrees in a single day.
we are approaching 50 degrees here on our way to maybe low 50's and tommorrow may reach near 60 degrees then by sunday back down into the teens with chills near or just below 0f on sunday with snow welcome to the rollercoaster effect
So has the 25" of snow already melted? How quickly does snow melt when it's 70 degrees out?
quiet on here today
it's Troll-free Thursday....

:)
Exellent update!!labels=1 labels=1 labels=1:)
KOTG..No more Arctic Air. Please turn those fans towards Alaska. Thanks in advance. It has been 15-20F above normal in DFW, TX since last Sunday.

All good things MUST come to an end!!!
Forecast update:

100% chance of AMY!!!!!!!
:)
103 days and counting.
There's an amusing error from a station in Monticello, NY; states a temperature of 102.2F at 11:35 am.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMSV/ 2011/02/17/DailyHistory.html
10 days a blue norther looks to plunge into TX


Quoting RitaEvac:
10 days a blue norther looks to plunge into TX




Tell me you are kidding, please.
presidents day snow for the northeast,looking more likely,2-4 inches...
Ask the models not me
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ask the models not me


I don't like the look of all this. I thought the groundhog was right and we were done with winter. Maybe not so soon as I had hoped.

they need to switch the groundhog out for a seabird.....
Complete Update

I think our weather man has been drinking again... calling for possible wet slush and or Flurries on Sunday & Tuesday.





Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE BINGIZA (05-20102011)
22:00 PM Reunion February 17 2011
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Bingiza (992 hPa) located at 20.8S 44.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 22.6S 45.2E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 24.5S 45.6E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)
48 HRS: 26.3S 45.0E - 35 knots (Depression subtropicale)
72 HRS: 27.6S 45.9E - 20 knots (Depression subtropicale)

Additional Information
======================

BINGIZA has made landfall over the western coast of Madagascar around 13:30 PM UTC and 14:00 PM UTC at about 15 NM south of Morondava as a moderate tropical storm. Last report from Morondava was a pressure of 990 hPa.

After a slow eastward drift today, the system seems to be now on a southeastward track at slightly more than 5 knots.

Little change in the forecast philosophy, numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a south southeastward track within the next 48 hours with a north northwesterly steering flow generated by a near equatorial ridge. Associated rains should be heavy over a large portion of western and southwestern area of Madagascar with locally 24 hours rain amounts up to 100 MM.

Remnants of BINGIZA should come back over water south of Madagascar near Ste-Marie Cape on Saturday, track temporarily southwestward on the subtropical ridge and dip down again south southeastward towards a mid-latitude trough with a subtropical and then an extratropical structure.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 06-20102011
22:00 PM Reunion February 17 2011
============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 06 (1001 hPa) located at 16.9S 62.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.0S 62.5E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 18.9S 63.0E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
48 HRS: 19.7S 63.0E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.8S 61.8E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
============================

Since 10:00 AM UTC, vigorous convection has started over the northwestern quadrant and progressively has moved closer to the center. Compared to 24 hours ago, overall pattern is better.

This afternoon, the system has accelerated south southwestward to southward on the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. this ridge is expected to weaken tonight and the steering flow should be done by a mid-level ridge existing north and east of the system. Consequently, the system should move towards the south southeast or southeast soon.

As it has accelerated, it may possible that the system is getting close of the upper level ridge than expected (upper level ridge located at 18:00 PM UTC according to shear CIMSS analysis). Consequently, it is not excluded that the system could strengthen a little.. however, all dynamical aids suggest that the upper level ridge should also move southward and maintain shear conditions over the system for the next three days. Consequently intensity forecast does not go beyond the tropical depression stage.

Saturday, as the system will be near Rodriques Island, subtropical ridge is expected to build back to the south allowing a more westward track. After that, quasi all available aids move the system southward towards a trough associated with the remnants of BINGIZA.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
TROPICAL CYCLONE DIANNE (16U)
3:00 AM WST February 18 2011
==========================================

At 2:00 am WST, Tropical Cyclone Dianne, Category Two (972 hPa) located at 19.1S 110.8E, or 470 km northwest of Exmouth and 710 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Dianne is located well off the northwest coast and has started to drift slowly southwards. Dianne is expected to continue moving southwards during Friday. If the cyclone moves closer to the coast GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Exmouth and Coral Bay early on Saturday morning, extending south to Overlander Roadhouse during Saturday. If Dianne takes a more south easterly track there is a slight chance of DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour between Coral Bay and Overlander Roadhouse, and GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may extend east to Onslow on Saturday.

Tides along the entire west coast are likely to exceed the high water mark over the next few days, with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible between Onslow and Shark Bay (Denham).

A Flood Warning is current for the Gascoyne, Murchison and Greenough Rivers and a Flood Watch is current for the Irwin River. Flooding is also expected in other areas of Western Australia. Please refer to the full list of Flood Watches and Warnings at www.bom.gov.au/wa.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Coral Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Onslow to Exmouth and Coral Bay to Overlander, including Carnarvon and Denham.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 19.7S 110.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 20.5S 110.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 23.0S 110.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 26.9S 110.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

During the day satellite imagery showed a developing curved band. From about 0530 UTC the curved band structure weakened with a large break appearing. However, deep convection has remained near the centre. The system remains under moderate easterly shear, however there are indications that the shear is starting to decrease. Dvorak analysis yielded a DT of 3.5 based on a shear pattrern. The FT was based more on MET with a pattern T being difficult to apply. With a developing trend being assigned MET=PT=FT=4.0. This is less than SATCON which indicates a 60-65kt system but little more than ADT which is around 3.0-3.5.

Satellite imagery shows good equatorward outflow. The system is over ocean temperatures above 28C. Shear continues to decrease on Friday with development becoming more favourable and thus the system is expected to develop into a severe tropical cyclone during Friday. There is some uncertainty however with considerable variance in model trends.

Peak intensity is expected during Saturday 19th February. Dianne is then expected to gradually weaken over cooler SSTs and increasing shear when it gets to a latitude south of 25S.

The system has been slow moving over the past 24 hours, although a slight southerly motion is now apparent. The passage of an upper trough is likely to cause the system to move generally southwards over the next 3-4 days, with the steering finely balanced. The models show a number of scenarios, but it is looking increasingly likely the system will move south to southwesterly away from the WA coast. However, there still remains a chance that it will take a more southeasterly track and affect the west coast of the state.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Dianne will be issued at 22:00 PM UTC..
Did some one declare this "NO BLOGGERS DAY" and I missed the memo??

Thanks for the vote my dear, but I fear that I would do no better than he.
.
my purple hippo could predict Spring, but she won't fit into that hole....
36. JRRP

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER CARLOS (17U)
5:00 AM CST February 18 2011
===============================================

At 3:30 am CST, Tropical Low, Former Carlos (996 hPa) [Overland] located at 13.8S 130.6E, or 155 km south of Darwin and 125 km east northeast of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos is expected to continue moving southwest and may move into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Saturday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop between Daly River Mouth in the NT and Kalumburu in WA, if the system moves over water on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory to Kalumburu in Western Australia, including Port Keats, Kalumburu and Wyndham.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.1S 130.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.3S 130.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.6S 128.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 15.7S 125.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

System over land. Position fair, based on radar animation and surface observations.

There is still a well-developed circulation up to to 500hPa. Strongly divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south; good outflow in northern sectors with weak shear indicate further development potential if the system were to move over water.

The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a continued southwest movement as the mid-level subtropical ridge to the south weakens and move east. This track may bring the system over the waters of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Saturday.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Low Carlos will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
It makes me happy with our comforatble 20 degree shift, each day this week.
Hmmm, no one has mentioned the G and W word today, thats probably why it ssssooooo slloowwwwww on here.
no mention of ancient aliens, Al Gore, JFV, or polar bears either....
You don't call, you don't write. Some friends you are. I haven't been on here for days, and not one of you even asked if old Grothar was still alive. I get more attention from my mother-in-law.
Quoting NRAamy:
no mention of ancient aliens, Al Gore, JFV, or polar bears either....


I miss one of them :)
Quoting NRAamy:
no mention of ancient aliens, Al Gore, JFV, or polar bears either....


Hi, Amy. Saw this and thought of you.



Grothar!!!! hahahahahahahahahah!!!!!

:)



ah, poor viking tree-hugger....gets no lovin' from the weather geeks.... actually, I think that is a good thing....


;)
Quoting Grothar:


Hi, Amy. Saw this and thought of you.





I was being good yesterday... Floodman wasn't sure if he had any peers on here... due to his highly advanced age... I was good... and didn't mention your name :)
Thank You DR. Masters.It seems that average normals are getting harder to find.
v/r
Moe
Cloudsat just caught Carlos..
Bingiza on cloudsat. It's in two frames.
Gotta be in the wrong blog or its that solar thing :^)

Quoting NRAamy:
it's Troll-free Thursday....

:)


I pick today to do a snowboarding lesson and it's like this on the blog? Wow, I should've waited to do it tomorrow LOL
Wiat no trolls?!?! How can we have a weather blog without a political or religious debate.
Dianne has some very nice outflow I think she might be able to pull off some rapid intensification and reach cat 3.
Thanks, Doc!

Our heat wave here in Fargo is over, back to winter. They are saying snow tonight and tomorrow. :-(
Quoting JRRP:


Looks like La Nina is going bye-bye.
Quoting NRAamy:
no mention of ancient aliens, Al Gore, JFV, or polar bears either....

Thank goodness, lets get back to weather.



Dianne looks about ready to reach Hurricane strength. is it going to absorb the energy from Carlos?
Ok, I'll break the ice and recommend an article and a book at the same time:
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2011/02/decon structing-global-warming-fraud.html
Quoting caneswatch:


I pick today to do a snowboarding lesson and it's like this on the blog? Wow, I should've waited to do it tomorrow LOL
nice really but hey lets wait till after the 5 oclock whistle to see how things go


Quoting RitaEvac:
10 days a blue norther looks to plunge into TX


If it's any consolation, it doesn't look as strong as some of the previous outbreaks we've seen thus far.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I was being good yesterday... Floodman wasn't sure if he had any peers on here... due to his highly advanced age... I was good... and didn't mention your name :)


I've always depended on the kindness of strangers. Thanks.
Quoting KoritheMan:

If it's any consolation, it doesn't look as strong as some of the previous outbreaks we've seen thus far.
a few days of cooler weather for the most part for the deep south but time is running out for such events as winter approaches early march late feb the northern half of CONUS and all of canada could still see some deep cold till the spring warming takes over in the latter half of march

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a few days of cooler weather for the most part for the deep south but time is running out for such events as winter approaches early march late feb the northern half of CONUS and all of canada could still see some deep cold till the spring warming takes over in the latter half of march
Man, the winter lasts entirely too long for you guys up north. Can't say I envy you.
#27..No, no, no, no, no!! Alaska and W Canada can keep all that cold air. North TX wants a divorce from this La Nina Winter, immediately.

Tired of being very ill with upper respiratory infections. Three days of 102F fever on the 4TH episode of illness due to wacked out weather.

Enjoying morning lows near 63F, highs near 75F each and every day :D
Quoting KoritheMan:

Man, the winter lasts entirely too long for you guys up north. Can't say I envy you.
in a normal winter we can pretty well rule out cold and snow by april 15 in southern ontario
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nice really but hey lets wait till after the 5 oclock whistle to see how things go



Forget that. If it's been like this all day then it'll probably like this through the night.
Quoting Grothar:


I've always depended on the kindness of strangers. Thanks.


Don't try to make me laugh, cause my core hurts from snowboard training. Knowing you, you'll still try LOL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nice really but hey lets wait till after the 5 oclock whistle to see how things go



Looks like it only made it to 4:28 EST. Damn icebreaker.
Hiya Dr Jeff,

Indeed, quite remarkable to have a 100F swing over that short period, with clearly the more notable reading being the record -28F low, than the 72F high... I'd say those plants and animals are rejoicing! (More to come as record highs are now replacing those record lows today and next several)

While the 24 hr chinook spike is the most incredible temp burst recorded, it's worth noting the seasonal frame the others occurred - a rapid downward drop being most likely during the Fall-Winter transition (warm ridge / arctic trof plunging), while the upticks are more likely as we approach Winter-Spring transition (arctic trof / warm ridge rebuilding), as this latest has - especially true across the S tier states... As I've mentioned before, Winter 1989-1990 was a flip of the switch from the brutal arctic outbreak in December to a mild Jan-Feb, the temp rise was less intense, most likely as it occurred in Mid-Winter at end Dec / start Jan...

Wild temp swings over the southern tier in February are not particularly uncommon, most especially in South TX, where we find historical precedence in several years... Two extreme Februarys I can point out that both had deep arctic blasts followed by record warmth would be 1899 and 1996, although over a longer time frame than Oklahoma just recorded...

Look what happened in Feb 1899 when many all-time record lows that still stand were set over the South... San Antonio recorded all-time low of 4.5F on the 12th, but jumped to 90.6F by the 22nd just ahead of another frontal passage (86.1F spike)... Also in agreement with slightly larger range was Beeville TX with a 5F low on the 12th, peaking with a 93F high on the 22nd for a spike of 88F (although both highs were likely on the 21st, using 7AM obs period, putting this within a 9 day range)...

February 1996 offered up another incredible range over a bit longer period, beginning with an arctic intrusion that dug deep into the Gulf South, with some S TX stations dropping into up teens to 20's, then had a remarkable swing as very warm ridging returned (and across the S US) that brought all-time Feb record highs, featuring earliest 100 degree readings at several S TX locations: Beeville fell to 21F on the 4th, then hit 98F by the 22nd... while San Antonio hit 100F, Austin Bergstrom hit 101F...

Of the most recent events, we can observe the pattern changes and outline what has brought this about as we see that the NAO has swiftly shifted positive, we also see in viewing the upper air analysis at 200 mb of a very expansive cross-equatorial ridge building NWD from South America / E Pac / Caribbean, with corresponding mid level / sfc ridging rising into the S / E CONUS as well (will need view the GFS W Atl / N American / E Pac / S American charts to see the breadth of it)... Perhaps a teleconnection response with the NAO and ENSO (among others), IMHO much of which we're seeing now represents somewhat typical signs of early Spring transition for this region (LOL, although I KNOW Winter is NOT completely done here either as jet stream troughing battles it out with mid-upper level ridging from southern latitudes, and clashes further into full-blown Spring)...

All that said, the 100F spike in OK was one for the record books and shows what can happen in a short span with the right combination of trof departure / ridge replacement!

Cheers!
Quoting Grothar:


I've always depended on the kindness of strangers. Thanks.


That's the nicest thing I have been called on here all week :)
Quoting caneswatch:


Forget that. If it's been like this all day then it'll probably like this through the night.


Make sure you wear your hat and mittons. Don't get your boots wet either. And if I catch you on the slopes without your scarf again, I won't let you go on the little pony ride in front of the the ski slopes. (Hope you are having fun.)
hahahahaha!

:)
Quoting Grothar:


Make sure you wear your hat and mittons. Don't get your boots wet either. And if I catch you on the slopes without your scarf again, I won't let you go on the little pony ride in front of the the ski slopes. (Hope you are having fun.)


Hmmm...

My Mommy always warned me about old men offering candy and pony rides....
Quoting Orcasystems:


That's the nicest thing I have been called on here all week :)


I know. I've seen some of the comments. I mean, you're not that bad. One must have a tough hide to stay on this blog. Last time I was on, people were comparing their educational degrees. After reading some of the blogs, I am quite sure none could have been degrees in English.
#64
LOL, I could have posted that long-winded comment in my own badly neglected blog as a new entry, but...

Sorry to interrupt the conversation, guys and gals...

Work calls...
G'day at yas!
Be sure to be on the look out in a few days for a server weather event.The cold air should be returning back to the north east around Monday,and the south should remain warm.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmm...

My Mommy always warned me about old men offering candy and pony rides....


No wonder people call you names. LOL
I am out. Duty calls. I will have to check on the insults tomorrow. Everyone have fun and play nicey nice.
Quoting Grothar:


I know. I've seen some of the comments. I mean, you're not that bad. One must have a tough hide to stay on this blog. Last time I was on, people were comparing their educational degrees. After reading some of the blogs, I am quite sure none could have been degrees in English.


Thats why I stick to humour and GE graphics... I know my weather limitations :) Even then.. not to sure about my sense of humour at times either :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmm...

My Mommy always warned me about old men offering candy and pony rides....


HAHAHAHA now that was funny.
Quoting Grothar:


Make sure you wear your hat and mittons. Don't get your boots wet either. And if I catch you on the slopes without your scarf again, I won't let you go on the little pony ride in front of the the ski slopes. (Hope you are having fun.)


I'm not there for another two weeks, but I am having fun here LOL

See ya tomorrow Grothar!
Its a humid day here in Kansas City, where we broke the High temperature record, 75 degrees today. Made for a nice lunch time walk. Though its supposed to get a bit cold again.
Such beautiful "Chamber of Commerce" weather here in Palm Beach county Florida.
81 and partly here in Cape Coral today.
Nice on the Cumberland Plateau too. 61 degrees. Wind out out West at 15 mph....
Caribbean still staying moist...
And the same for SW Florida as far as the eye can see. It's real easy to forget about hurricanes this time of the year.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


KOG, I need some ice on a Bayou in Destin FL, think you can handle that for me?
87. afj3
Hello all!
Greetings from sunny South Florida. Sorry to divert attention away from the Southern Hemisphere, but is there any correlation between a dry winter in South Florida and hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin? It's really dry here!
wunder should march roar like a lion that gfs shows energy from sw pacific coming from the north getting absorbed into system over nw rockies as advancement occurs into high plains that could be an interesting picture
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


No thanks, think I'll pass on that system. It's been absolutely beautiful in Ms today....and yesterday....and another tomorrow :)
Quoting afj3:
Hello all!
Greetings from sunny South Florida. Sorry to divert attention away from the Southern Hemisphere, but is there any correlation between a dry winter in South Florida and hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin? It's really dry here!


The short answer is no. Other than the obvious that if we get a bunch of monsoonal rain, hurricanes or other than we start out with more moisture in the soil. This dry weather is pretty typical. The hurricane season this year was dryer than normal.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


No thanks, think I'll pass on that system. It's been absolutely beautiful in Ms today....and yesterday....and another tomorrow :)

like always
all days are numbered big shifts going on
lots of atomsphere movin around
cold and heat is the battle ground
i expect the first severe round
this time around
as we advance into march
and spring ground
Evening all.
Quoting afj3:
Hello all!
Greetings from sunny South Florida. Sorry to divert attention away from the Southern Hemisphere, but is there any correlation between a dry winter in South Florida and hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin? It's really dry here!


Check out your local weather and then go to the almanac and yesterdays weather. You'll see average rainfall, rainfall this month and last years rainfall at this time. Good stuff.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

like always
all days are numbered big shifts going on
lots of atomsphere movin around
cold and heat is the battle ground
i expect the first severe round
this time around
as we advance into march
and spring ground


Yeah, I know you're right. The worst tornado I've ever been through, and I've been through MANY...was in March....was an F5
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Evening all.
Hello.
Quoting Orcasystems:


KOG, I need some ice on a Bayou in Destin FL, think you can handle that for me?
that may be a little late for the menu now big fish it could get cold but ice lets just see what the old man winter got left
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wunder should march roar like a lion that gfs shows energy from sw pacific coming from the north getting absorbed into system over nw rockies as advancement occurs into high plains that could be an interesting picture

Looks quite likely. I hope your happy :D
evening to one and all
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
evening to one and all

Evening. So far only sane people here. At least that have posted.
Has anyone seen about any radio communication issues or other strange stuff with the solar storm?
Quoting twincomanche:
Has anyone seen about any radio communication issues or other strange stuff with the solar storm?


yes.. China had problems from the flare.. I posted it this morning in the previous blog


be interesting to see next set at 00z
Quoting Orcasystems:


yes.. China had problems from the flare.. I posted it this morning in the previous blog


I saw that but the "big one" was supposed to hit this afternoon and evening, you know maybe "doom" stuff. Just wondered if anything else has happened?
104. afj3
Quoting twincomanche:


The short answer is no. Other than the obvious that if we get a bunch of monsoonal rain, hurricanes or other than we start out with more moisture in the soil. This dry weather is pretty typical. The hurricane season this year was dryer than normal.

thanks!
Quoting twincomanche:


I saw that but the "big one" was supposed to hit this afternoon and evening, you know maybe "doom" stuff. Just wondered if anything else has happened?
well the lights are still on and we are on the computer and the tv works so i guess we are ok for now maybe the next time
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well the lights are still on and we are on the computer and the tv works so i guess we are ok for now maybe the next time


Good response. LOL.
Suppose to reach 71 or 72 degrees tomarrow.And that's a Friday!.Talk about a real treat.I'm defenatly having lunch outside tomarrow.
I'm defenatly having lunch outside tomarrow.

rally? thats cuul!
Ark. cities feel unexplained surge in earthquakes

Link
By SARAH EDDINGTON, Associated Press Sarah Eddington, Associated Press Thu Feb 17, 9:45 am ET

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – Jim Sutterfield was briefly puzzled by a thumping sound that seemed to slam the back of his office chair. But when the small-town Arkansas fire chief turned and saw no one was around, he quickly realized it was just an earthquake — again.

"That was only my second time to feel one, but others here have felt them for three or four months now," Greenbrier chief Jim Sutterfield said after feeling the latest tremor on Wednesday. "Now when it happens, people say, 'Well, there's another one.'"

Several small earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 1.8 to 3.8 have rattled the north-central Arkansas cities of Greenbrier and Guy this week, and the cause is unknown.

The U.S. Geological Survey has reported more than 30 earthquakes in the area since Sunday, including a magnitude 3.8 quake Thursday morning and at least 16 others occurring Wednesday, two of which were magnitude 3.2 and 3.5. More than 700 quakes have occurred in the region over the past six months.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Suppose to reach 71 or 72 degrees tomarrow.And that's a Friday!.Talk about a real treat.I'm defenatly having lunch outside tomarrow.
we could see low 60's ourselvesby noon tomorrow
it was nice today here too reached a high of 50.4 according to my PWS
Quoting sunlinepr:
Ark. cities feel unexplained surge in earthquakes

Link
By SARAH EDDINGTON, Associated Press Sarah Eddington, Associated Press Thu Feb 17, 9:45 am ET

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – Jim Sutterfield was briefly puzzled by a thumping sound that seemed to slam the back of his office chair. But when the small-town Arkansas fire chief turned and saw no one was around, he quickly realized it was just an earthquake — again.

"That was only my second time to feel one, but others here have felt them for three or four months now," Greenbrier chief Jim Sutterfield said after feeling the latest tremor on Wednesday. "Now when it happens, people say, 'Well, there's another one.'"

Several small earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 1.8 to 3.8 have rattled the north-central Arkansas cities of Greenbrier and Guy this week, and the cause is unknown.

The U.S. Geological Survey has reported more than 30 earthquakes in the area since Sunday, including a magnitude 3.8 quake Thursday morning and at least 16 others occurring Wednesday, two of which were magnitude 3.2 and 3.5. More than 700 quakes have occurred in the region over the past six months.
pre-madrid shakers
Quoting Orcasystems:


KOG, I need some ice on a Bayou in Destin FL, think you can handle that for me?




That's for Foxxy, and since I'm just down the road!
Quoting NRAamy:
I'm defenatly having lunch outside tomarrow.

rally? thats cuul!
Yes I type fast and before I know It I hit the post comment button,and don't relize that some of my words may be incorrect.Anyway this isn't some old kinda boring lunch outside the building.I'm going down to the patomic for lucnh.It's only 3 blocks from my job.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we could see low 60's ourselvesby noon tomorrow
it was nice today here too reached a high of 50.4 according to my PWS
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well the lights are still on and we are on the computer and the tv works so i guess we are ok for now maybe the next time


Actually we just entered the watch box if you will :)

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes I type fast and before I know It I hit the post comment button,and don't relize that some of my words may be incorrect.Anyway this isn't some old kinda boring lunch outside the building.I'm going down to the patomic for lucnh.It's only 3 blocks from my job.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1565
See their I go again.It's lunch.
Quoting Ossqss:


Actually we just entered the watch box if you will :)

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html
i know i have the same info on my blog page

Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i know i have the same info on my blog page

Link


Wow, you remodeled since I was there last. Nice job too. Quite comprehensive!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
pre-madrid shakers


Obviously the fault lies with Bush and Nagin.
Quoting washingtonian115:
See their I go again.It's lunch.


See there I go again. It's lunch. :P
just bustin your chops wash
Quoting RecordSeason:


Obviously the fault lies with Bush and Nagin.


Funny as you are don't start.
Quoting RecordSeason:


Obviously the fault lies with Bush and Nagin.


Actually I think the fault probably lies with the fault.
Ozone Layer’s Future Linked Strongly to Changes in Climate, Study Finds

Link


ScienceDaily (Feb. 17, 2011) — The ozone layer -- the thin atmospheric band high-up in the stratosphere that protects living things on Earth from the sun's harmful ultraviolet rays, not to be confused with damaging ozone pollution close to the ground -- faces potential new challenges even as it continues its recovery from earlier damage, according to a recently released international science assessment. The report, prepared by the Scientific Assessment Panel of the U.N. Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, also presents stronger evidence that links changes in stratospheric ozone and Earth's climate.

The report finds that over the past decade, global ozone levels, and ozone levels in the Arctic and Antarctic regions are at a turnaround point -- no longer decreasing but not yet increasing. The abundances of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere are responding as expected to the controls of the Montreal Protocol, with many now declining in both the lower and upper atmosphere.

By successfully controlling the emissions of ozone-depleting substances, the Montreal Protocol also has been beneficial for the climate, because many of these substances are heat trapping, or greenhouse, gases that are linked to Earth's warming.

"The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in protecting the ozone layer from much higher levels of depletion," said A.R. Ravishankara, director of NOAA's Chemical Sciences Division and co-chair of the Scientific Assessment Panel that produced the report. "But the ozone layer will increasingly be influenced by other factors related to the changing climate."

For example, climate change alters the atmosphere's temperature and circulation patterns, which in turn affect the processes that deplete the ozone layer. One projected outcome of this relationship is that ozone in the Arctic, where the most severe changes in climate are being observed, is projected to be more sensitive to climate changes than ozone in the Antarctic, where climate change is relatively less of an influence on the ozone layer.

Effects also work in reverse. Changes in the ozone layer have been linked to observed shifts in seasonal surface winds over the Southern Hemisphere, contributing to the Antarctic Peninsula warming and the high plateau cooling.
Scientists build first "antilaser"

By Julie Steenhuysen
Posted 2011/02/17 at 3:13 pm EST

CHICAGO, Feb. 17, 2011 (Reuters) — The laser -- a 50-year-old invention now used in everything from CDs to laser pointers -- has met its match in the "antilaser," the first device capable of trapping and canceling out laser beams.
While such a device would seem most fitting in a science fiction movie, its real-world application will likely be in next-generation, optical computers, which will be powered by light in addition to electrons, U.S. researchers said on Thursday.
"It's a device which basically works like running a laser backwards," A. Douglas Stone of Yale University, who published his findings in the journal Science, said in a telephone interview.
While a laser takes in electrical energy and emits light in a very narrow frequency range, Stone said, his antilaser takes in laser light and transforms it into heat energy.
But it could be easily converted into electrical energy, he said.
Conventional lasers, which were invented in 1960, use a so-called "gain medium," such as a semiconductor material, to produce a focused beam of light waves.
Stone's device uses silicon as an absorbent "loss-medium" that traps light waves, which bounce around until they are converted into heat.
And while the technology seems cool, his antilaser would never be used as a potential laser shield.
"This is something that absorbs lasers. If a ray gun was intended to kill you, it's going to kill you," Stone said.
He said the most obvious use of his device is in computing. "The next generation of high performance computers are going to have hybrid chips," Stone said.
Instead of having chips with transistors and silicon, these new computers will use both light and electrical energy.
Stone said the device could be used as a sort of optical switch that can be turned on and off at will.
Ultimately, he said, the technology could find its way in radiology.
Errm.. cricket?
Seems to me that this solar flare is yet one more over hyped junk science event that results in nothing, I wish we could get back to reality.
IMPACT! A CME hit Earth's magnetic field at approximately 0100 UT on Feb. 18th (8:00 pm EST on Feb. 17th). The impact was not as strong as expected considering the cloud's probable X-class origin. Nevertheless, geomagnetic storms are possible in the hours ahead. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

Not sure why it is when a forecast doesn't pan out that some feel the need to refer to it as overhyped junk science; if nothing else, I suppose that serves to highlight the real disconnect that exists between casual blog visitors and actual scientists. The thing is, those scientists are honorable people. And just like carpenters, surgeons, and electricians, they have a craft, and they practice it every day. They study the physical world and produce reports that explain one more piece of the great mystery, and forecasts based on those pieces as they see them. Few people bother to read those reports, and thus stumble around blindly in the dark, confused about what is happening and completely unprepared for what is coming, and all too eager to degrade those scientists. But why do that? If your doctor says he fears you have a tumor but it turns out to be just a benign cyst, you don't accuse him of "overhyped junk science", do you?
And here comes a troll.
129. rlk
Quoting weatherboy1992:
Most cities on the east coast have never had a month where temperatures have an 100 degree extreme range. Many cities on the west coast don't have a 100 degree range between their all time record highs and lows.


In Boston, the greatest monthly range is in December (-17~76 -- 93 degrees). Interestingly enough the range on December 30 is 90 degrees (-17~73), which is also (by quite a lot) the greatest daily range -- not in the same year!

The greatest short-term temperature changes are usually with strong back door/side door cold fronts in April and early May. In 2003 we had one day with a high of 84 (a record) and the next day the high was 40 (one degree shy of the record low max). The high was at midnight; the high during the day was about 35, and there were stations with >50 degree 24 hour temperature drops.

I notice Bartlesville eventually hit 82 today, so it wound up being 110 degrees in 6 days.
Quoting sunlinepr:


To Australia:

"Surrender, we've got you surrounded"
Dianne

Rainbow




Carlos

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Errm.. cricket?
Yes may I be the one to add the audio track?
www.solarcycle24.com

Geomagnetic Storm Watch Still in Effect
02/17/2011 by Kevin VE3EN at 21:40
Comment on Message Board

Geomagnetic Storm Watch - As of 21:45 UTC Thursday, there has still not been any shock detected from any one of atleast 3 incoming Coronal Mass Ejections. The following statement below is from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

February 17, 2011 -- The first interplanetary shock, driven by the CME from Sunday, is expected any time. Soon thereafter, the shock from Monday evening's R3/CME is due. Look for G1-G2 (and maybe periods of G3 if the following shock compresses and enhances the CME magnetic field). Geomagnetic storming should persist 24- 48 hours.

Another source is stating that the incoming CME activity could have missed us altogether. Time will tell.

Solar Update - The solar X-Rays have been fairly quiet early on Thursday with only minor C-Class activity. Sunspot 1158 and 1161 both remain large sunspots and there is still a chance for M-Class flares

GOES Flare class: X2.2
Flare peak time: 01:45 UT 15-Feb-2011

The first X flare of the new solar cycle and the first X flare that SDO has observed.
This was a beautiful flare and dramatic eruption with an associated coronal wave that affects the whole Sun. Nice coronal loop oscillation (ringing) is clearly visible.


good night you all.




Carlos and Dianne sitting in a tree...
Quoting Cochise111:
Deconstructing the Global Warming Fraud

By Alan Caruba

I have been reviewing books for fifty years and have long since lost count of how many books were written to propagate the global warming fraud, nor how many have been written to deconstruct it. That%u2019s how the war of ideas is fought these days, along with documentaries, blogs and websites, conferences, and all the other ways lies are defeated by the truth.

From the earliest days the global warming %u201Ctheory%u201D was proposed I knew that it was a complete hoax. It never made any sense to me that an element of the earth%u2019s atmosphere, carbon dioxide that measured an infinitesimal 0.0389%, could have an effect on the planet%u2019s climate. Just one of the so-called %u201Cgreenhouse gases%u201D, water vapor%u2014clouds%u2014is 51 times greater than CO2.

Moreover, not one single computer model can factor in the effect clouds have on the planet%u2019s weather because not one single meteorologist, living or dead, has a clue why they do what they do. They appear and disappear in the very definition of chaos. So it struck me as odd that all the computer models of the advocates of global warming always came to the same conclusion; it%u2019s coming and the earth's temperature will rise dramatically IF%u2026

IF is the key word that global warming advocates, now called %u201Cwarmists%u201D, kept saying. If you don%u2019t stop using coal and oil for energy, we%u2019re doomed. If you don%u2019t reduce your personal %u201Ccarbon footprint%u201D, we%u2019re doomed. If we don%u2019t immediately start using ethanol, wind and solar power, we%u2019re doomed.

Beyond IF came an endless avalanche of claims that global warming was altering or affecting every single natural phenomenon in the world. The claim was that glaciers were melting. Polar bear populations were disappearing. Hurricanes were increasing. The seas were rising. Eventually, just about everything happening anywhere was blamed on global warming.

Follywood and the mass media signed onto this absurdity, ignoring the science involved and the most obvious fact that an entirely natural cooling cycle began in 1998 and continues to this day. The worst of it, however, was a combination of the way the government and the nation%u2019s educational system became parties to this massive fraud. And still are!

The EPA claim that it has the authority to regulate CO2 is a pure lie and it is based on the global warming lie.

Ultimately, however, not one "warmest" ever once pointed to the single greatest factor in the earth%u2019s climate, the sun.

All this brings me to a new book, %u201CSlaying the Sky Dragon: Death of the Greenhouse Gas Theory%u201D, by eight co-authors, contributors whose expertise ranges across climatology, meteorology, physics, and mathematics, along with an expert in the legal aspects of the hoax. All have been derided as %u201Cdeniers%u201D and %u201Cskeptics.%u201D

I know several of them as Internet friends, I count Hans Schreuder, Joseph A. Olsen, and John O%u2019Sullivan among the many people who have helped me, over the years, to understand the complexities of climate science.

This book is not light reading. Indeed, if you don%u2019t come equipped with an understanding of physics, for example, some chapters will remain beyond your grasp. And mine! Happily, most is easily comprehended. In sum, it is a damning condemnation of the great hoax of the modern era, perhaps the greatest hoax since the bogus economic theory of communism.

Real science is not arrived at by %u201Cconsensus.%u201D Real scientists actually seek to disprove the findings of other scientists until they cannot be disproved, affirming them finally as accurate.

Real science can be corrupted in the same way as other aspects of society can be. For me, the real crime of global warming is the way governmental agencies, beginning with the United Nations%u2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, deliberately falsified data, mostly based on computer models, to underwrite the global warming fraud. That is also what NOAA, NASA, and the EPA, have done, to name just three.

Now add in billions of dollars lavished on %u201Cclimate research%u201D conducted on university campuses from coast to coast. There were exceptions. Some university-based scientists disputed the bogus research and some were threatened with the loss of their jobs. The other crime involves the corruption of formerly respected science journals and general science-related media such as National Geographic.

I have used the words %u201Choax%u201D and %u201Cfraud%u201D interchangeably, but the latter refers to the way global warming was never about the climate and all about a handful of people becoming quite wealthy by setting up exchanges to buy and sell bogus %u201Ccarbon credits%u201D mandated by governments in order to emit CO2 in the normal process of manufacturing production and other applications.

Others have cashed in building solar and wind farms, or became producers of ethanol. None of these ventures would survive without government mandates requiring their use.

The Cap-and-Trade Act is one such fraud and is currently in the U.S. Senate%u2019s political dead zone, hopefully to never be enacted. It is the global warming equivalent of Obamacare; the death of thousands of jobs and the economy.

I recommend you read %u201CSlaying the Sky Dragon%u201D as the definitive answer to more than twenty years of global warming lies.


I MISSED THE PART WHERE YOU PROVED THE EARTH ISN'T WARMING.

AND THE PART WHERE YOU PROVED THE GREENHOUSE GAS THEORY FALSE.


Just one wordy post about a book, yet still no evidence, go figure.
Quoting Cochise111:
Deconstructing the Global Warming Fraud

By Alan Caruba


That's great; you've shown us a bunch of unscientific blather by an ardent anti-environmentalist/PR advisor. Now, do you have any peer-reviewed science to post that refutes the basic tenets of the theory of AGW? (You know: the plant is warming rapidly due to an increase in the amount of atmospheric CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels?) I'll be standing by with bated breath...
here we go
Quoting TomTaylor:


I MISSED THE PART WHERE YOU PROVED THE EARTH ISN'T WARMING.

AND THE PART WHERE YOU PROVED THE GREENHOUSE GAS THEORY FALSE.


Just one wordy post about a book, yet still no evidence, go figure.



Show me the evidence where it is without data manipulation.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center




Global Climate Change Indicators

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.


How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe.

This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements.

These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends. The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.

Climate Model Indications and the Observed Climate

Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.




Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.


Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
12:00 PM FST February 18 2011
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (1000 hPa) located at 14.8S 169.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots. Position poor based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Organization improved past 24 hours with primary bands trying to wrap around low level circulation center from southern quadrant but restricted elsewhere due to moderate shear. Convection increased in the past 6 hours with visible satellite imagery depicts consolidated deep convection developing over the low level circulation center. Cyclonic circulation extending from surface to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. System lies along a surface trough and under an upper diffluent region. System steered southwest by easterly deep layer mean regime. CIMSS analysis indicates weak shear to north and south of system. Mid-level ridge to south of system is expected to weaken and recede to west as west as system moves south.

Dvorak assessment based on 0.3 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=1.5, PT=1.5. Final T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS.

Global models agree on a southward movement before moving it southeastward with little intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.5S 169.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 16.3S 169.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 17.3S 169.8W - 40 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
124:

Think our unemployment is high now? Wait a few years. When the computers that are projected start to hit the market, so many more jobs will be replaced by automated systems.

Meteorologists will be out of a job, as they will be replaced by automated systems. We also will be able to replace the "American Auto Worker" completely with machines. They already have good automation and do very little actual work. So replacing most of them for some rudimentary androids and a few maintenance techs would be the next step.

We will also remove incompetent teachers are replace them with automated systems, though honestly, by the next 10 to 15 years, the demand for human labor and intelligence will be so low due to automation, "teachers" may no longer be required. Not like they're earning their pay and benefits anyway. It takes a while for technology to be integrated, which is why the 10 to 15 years, though the computers will be capable of this by 5 years.

Robots will have like 512 processor cores: a core for every sensor and every servo motor, and a whole host of cores for "higher" functions and a.i. scripts.

The simple fact that so many humans wont be driving back and forth to work every day will save tremendously on long term energy costs.



Hopefully, this will lead to a collapse of the existing world economic systems of "give to the rich and take from everyone else," and allow something much more fair to take their place. We shall remove the CEO and the broker and the venture capitalist, and replace them with a society where everyone works for the betterment of mankind....well, actually the robots will. Humans will just concentrate on making better robots and better medicine and stuff.
Study: Ozone Layer’s Future Linked Strongly to Changes in Climate

February 16, 2011


The ozone layer — the thin atmospheric band high-up in the stratosphere that protects living things on Earth from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays, not to be confused with damaging ozone pollution close to the ground — faces potential new challenges even as it continues its recovery from earlier damage, according to a recently released international science assessment. The report, prepared by the Scientific Assessment Panel of the U.N. Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, also presents stronger evidence that links changes in stratospheric ozone and the Earth’s climate.

The report finds that over the past decade, global ozone levels, and ozone levels in the Arctic and Antarctic regions are at a turnaround point — no longer decreasing but not yet increasing. The abundances of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere are responding as expected to the controls of the Montreal Protocol, with many now declining in both the lower and upper atmosphere.

By successfully controlling the emissions of ozone-depleting substances, the Montreal Protocol also has been beneficial for the climate, because many of these substances are heat trapping, or greenhouse, gases that are linked to the Earth’s warming.

“The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in protecting the ozone layer from much higher levels of depletion,” said A.R. Ravishankara, director of NOAA’s Chemical Sciences Division and co-chair of the Scientific Assessment Panel that produced the report. “But the ozone layer will increasingly be influenced by other factors related to the changing climate.”

For example, climate change alters the atmosphere’s temperature and circulation patterns, which in turn affect the processes that deplete the ozone layer. One projected outcome of this relationship is that ozone in the Arctic, where the most severe changes in climate are being observed, is projected to be more sensitive to climate changes than ozone in the Antarctic, where climate change is relatively less of an influence on the ozone layer.

Effects also work in reverse. Changes in the ozone layer have been linked to observed shifts in seasonal surface winds over the Southern Hemisphere, contributing to the Antarctic Peninsula warming and the high plateau cooling.

This animation uses data from NOAA’s satellites to show the annual changes in the size of the Antarctic ozone hole, along with daily fluctuations in global ozone concentration. As pointed out in the report, the size of the Antarctic ozone hole appears to have reached a turnaround point, whereby the hole is not getting worse each year, but at the same time it is not decreasing.

Full size animation (Credit: NOAA)

The Antarctic ozone hole was discovered in 1985. Soon after, scientists established that the recurring springtime ozone hole was caused by human-made substances such as chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, used in refrigeration and halons used in fire extinguishers. The findings became a “science success story” as governments recognized the need for measures to reduce the production and consumption of a number of CFCs, halons and other ozone-depleting substances.

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer was adopted in 1987 and came into force in 1989. It was designed so that the schedules for phasing out ozone-depleting substances could be revised based on periodic scientific and technological assessments, be amended or adjusted to introduce other kinds of control measures, and to add new controlled substances to the list. The 2010 scientific assessment just released provides information needed by the Protocol’s decision-makers during the coming few years as they consider possible further actions to protect the ozone layer.

A return to pre-1980 levels of ozone is expected around mid-century in mid-latitude regions and the Arctic, with recovery in the Antarctic expected to follow later this century, according to the assessment.

The ozone layer’s continued protection depends on future adherence to the provisions of the Montreal Protocol, as well as potential new influences, such as possible unintended consequences of proposals to deliberately add compounds to the atmosphere to counteract warming due to heat-trapping gases.

“The Montreal Protocol is doing what it was designed to do and we are seeing less of the ozone-depleting substances covered by the agreement,” said Ravishankara. “This has protected the ozone layer. But the atmosphere and climate are changing, so the ozone layer will not exactly retrace its steps.”

NOAA scientists and colleagues contributed findings that were critical to the assessment report. Namely, they led studies that determined the cause of the Antarctic ozone hole and elucidated the processes involved in ozone depletion in other regions of the globe. Teams have also tracked the state of the ozone layer and the abundances of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and modeled the past and projected future state of the ozone layer.

The 2010 assessment was conducted under the auspices of the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization. It involved more than 300 international scientists as authors and reviewers.

The full report is posted on the UNEP website: http://www.unep.ch/ozone/Assessment_Panels/SAP/ind ex.shtml

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook.
Quoting Cochise111:



Show me the evidence where it is without data manipulation.


No I asked you to show me where it is known the earth is cooling and where you proved that the greenhouse gas theory is wrong. You answer that first. I never said the earth was warming or that the greenhouse gas theory is correct. I'm not the one making claims, you are.

So I ask you to back them up, now please do so, I am waiting.
Oh lord.I'll say it again.Just when you think their gone.They make an unwelcome comeback....
Here is a list of organizations that accept anthropogenic global warming as real and scientifically well-supported:
Displaying the only post.

*
Alexander Do Rio
Here is a list of organizations that accept anthropogenic global warming as real and scientifically well-supported:
• NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS): http://www.giss.nasa.gov/edu/gwdebate/
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming. html
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm
• National Academy of Sciences (NAS): http://books.nap.edu/collections/global_warming/in dex.html
• State of the Canadian Cryosphere (SOCC) - http://www.socc.ca/permafrost/permafrost_future_e. cfm
• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): http://epa.gov/climatechange/index.html
• The Royal Society of the UK (RS) - http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/page.asp?id=3135
• American Geophysical Union (AGU): http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/policy/climate_change_p osition.html
• American Meteorological Society (AMS): http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/climatechangeresearc h_2003.html
• American Institute of Physics (AIP): http://www.aip.org/gov/policy12.html
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR): http://eo.ucar.edu/basics/cc_1.html
• American Meteorological Society (AMS): http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/jointacademies.html
• Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS): http://www.cmos.ca/climatechangepole.html

Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, Brazilian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society of Canada, Caribbean Academy of
Sciences, French Academy of Sciences, German Academy of Natural Scientists, Leopoldina, Indian National Science Academy, Indonesian Academy of Sciences, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), Academy of Sciences Malaysia, Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

http://www.royalsociety.org/displaypagedoc.asp?...

- All major science journals, including Nature, Science, Scientific American, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and a multitude of climatology and geophysics journals.
Every major scientific institution dealing with climate, ocean, and/or atmosphere agrees that the climate is warming rapidly and the primary cause is human CO2 emissions.

In addition to that list, see also this joint statement (PDF) http://nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf that specifically and unequivocally endorses the work and conclusions of the IPCC Third Assessment report. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm The statement was issued by:
Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil), Royal Society of Canada, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Academie des Sciences (France), Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany), Indian National Science Academy, Accademia dei Lincei (Italy), Science Council of Japan, Russian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society (United Kingdom), National Academy of Sciences (United States of America)
You can also read this statement [PDF], http://www.royalsociety.org/displaypagedoc.asp?id= 13619 which includes all the above signatories plus the following:,
Australian Academy of Sciences, Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, Caribbean Academy of Sciences ,Indonesian Academy of Sciences, Royal Irish Academy, Academy of Sciences Malaysia , Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand .Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
over a year ago · Report
Quoting Cochise111:


I'd accept it also if I believed that the climate data were correct. When one delves into the temperature data, all is not as it seems.

you offer nothing to this discussion.

you just deny everything. How is that contributing?

psst, here's a hint: it's not

Im surprised you don't deny your denying...OH WAIT, you do.
Quoting TomTaylor:


No I asked you to show me where it is known the earth is cooling and where you proved that the greenhouse gas theory is wrong. You answer that first. I never said the earth was warming or that the greenhouse gas theory is correct. I'm not the one making claims, you are.

So I ask you to back them up, now please do so, I am waiting.


http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/audit/anao-request -audit-bom.pdf

The above is a link that shows the manipulation of temperatures all over the globe. If not for the adjustments, the temperatures would not have risen.
Quoting TomTaylor:

you offer nothing to this discussion.

you just deny everything. How is that contributing?

psst, here's a hint: it's not

Im surprised you don't deny your denying...OH WAIT, you do.


What a linguist. You should imitate Shakespeare. Oh, you already do. Consider a career in imitation rather than propaganda.
Quoting Cochise111:


http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/audit/anao-request -audit-bom.pdf

The above is a link that shows the manipulation of temperatures all over the globe. If not for the adjustments, the temperatures would not have risen.


To the bold part, what is your proof?
Quoting Cochise111:


http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/audit/anao-request -audit-bom.pdf

The above is a link that shows the manipulation of temperatures all over the globe. If not for the adjustments, the temperatures would not have risen.
This link doesn't even work
Quoting TomTaylor:


To the bold part, what is your proof?


My proof? If the temperature were not adjusted the graph would be almost flat.
Quoting TomTaylor:
This link doesn't even work


It works for me. Not sure why it doesn't work for you. Maybe your computer is brainwashed.
Quoting Cochise111:


My proof? If the temperature were not adjusted the graph would be almost flat.

I know, you already said this. BUT, my question (which you still haven't answered) is HOW do you know how much it would drop?
Quoting Cochise111:


It works for me. Not sure why it doesn't work for you. Maybe your computer is brainwashed.


Yeah that makes perfect sense.
161. JRRP
Quoting twincomanche:
here we go

lol
Well, luckly for the rest of the bloggers, that fire was extinguished fast.
Quoting TomTaylor:

I know, you already said this. BUT, my question (which you still haven't answered) is HOW do you know how much it would drop?


I have a question for you JF.

How much, as a percent, do you attribute to the current stated global warming from the normal temperature expectation, as mans part of the equation?

Now, the warming number does not really matter since it is a percentage based answer we seek.

Just askin, so we can put perspective on things :)
Actual Economy issues....
Link

Special report: China flexed its muscles using U.S. Treasuries
Reuters


NEW YORK (Reuters): Confidential diplomatic cables from the U.S. embassies in Beijing and Hong Kong lay bare China's growing influence as America's largest creditor.....

"China is America's biggest foreign lender, playing a crucial role in the U.S.Treasury auctions that allow Washington to borrow what it needs to keep its government running. At the same time, the United States is China's top export destination: America's trade deficit with the nation reached a record $273.1 billion in 2010. Most economists describe the two economies as co-dependent".


And....

Government shutdown? GOP, Democrats swap charges

WASHINGTON: In a deepening struggle over spending, Republicans and Democrats swapped charges Thursday over a possible government shutdown when money runs out March 4 for most federal agencies.

Link

AND (Posted yesterday)

Reduced funding will mean upper air observations currently made twice a day might be reduced to every other day. Buoy and surface weather observations, the backbone of most of the weather and warning systems, may be temporarily or permanently discontinued. Delays in replacement satellites run the risk of losing key weather data that can be obtained no other way. "This information is vital for weather modeling and essential for accurate tornado watches and warnings," said Sobien.
The National Hurricane Center is not immune to these cuts as furloughs and staffing cuts will add strain to the program. The Hurricane Hunter Jet, which provides lifesaving data and helps determine a hurricane's path, could also be eliminated.
Quoting Ossqss:


I have a question for you JF.

How much, as a percent, do you attribute to the current stated global warming from the normal temperature expectation, as mans part of the equation?

Now, the warming number does not really matter since it is a percentage based answer we seek.

Just askin, so we can put perspective on things :)

If you're asking me I have no damn idea.
A typical human being who consumes an 2000 food calorie diet uses only 97.22 Watts of power.


2000kcal/day * 4200joule/kcal = 8400000joule/day


8400000joule / (24hour* 3600s/hour) = 97.22 joule/s

97.22joule/s = 97.22 watts

That's all we use to actually live for a day, counting the "hidden" energy of respiration!

This computer uses over 5 times as much power continuously as a typical adult human being requires to stay alive and "healthy".

Neglecting air resistance, the amount of kinetic energy of a vehicle moving 70mph is 5.444444... times greater than the kinetic energy of the same vehicle moving just 30 mph. This kinetic energy comes from the chemical energy of the fuel.

We would save much energy by reducing speed limits and by adding extra turning lanes to reduce stoppage time.

97.22watts/person * 6.8 billion person = 661 gigawatts.


This is the amount of power the world uses in food and respiration, well, would use if everyone ate a 2000kcal diet.

This food energy for all humans combined is equivalent of burning 5045 gallons of gasoline per second, which is less than half the amount of gasoline America alone uses each second.

It seems to me that if people didn't drive to work so much, half of them wouldn't need to work at all.

If we banned wasteful things like sports and exercise, we could significantly reduce our carbon footprint. What gives these people the "right" to pollute the atmosphere with their several extra gram of CO2 per day which they make by exercising?

I read somewhere that Hugh Jackman is making something like 6000 kcal per day diet. That means he makes thrice as much CO2 per day as the average person. In a year, he makes an extra 730kg CO2 just by eating and breathing! We need carbon taxes on all these people who exercise so much and make so much CO2. The EU could hit him with $58.40 per year in carbon taxes!
I am very serious though.

Our container ships use ridiculous 95,000 horse power engines. Bio fuels don't hit on jack. That thing will burn through an entire farm's worth of fuel in a day. What a waste of valuable phosphorous and other life-sustaining nutrients!

It makes no sense to burn an entire cargo ship full of corn so you can move a cargo ship full of wheat across the ocean. You'd quite literally be better off sending a bunch of sail boats and selling both the wheat and the corn for food....
Quoting RecordSeason:
I am very serious though.

Our container ships use ridiculous 95,000 horse power engines. Bio fuels don't hit on jack. That thing will burn through an entire farm's worth of fuel in a day. What a waste of valuable phosphorous and other life-sustaining nutrients!

It makes no sense to burn an entire cargo ship full of corn so you can move a cargo ship full of wheat across the ocean. You'd quite literally be better off sending a bunch of sail boats and selling both the wheat and the corn for food....


I actually agree with you, biofuels are an alternative, but honestly, they don't seem very efficient or realistic as a solution for oil.

Anyway, back to weather...

Oss First of all that is not me and the only reason I saw they quoited you as I had you on ignore for joining in that troll fest the other day.

Second I have this ID for my blog and my name ID Only. Do not insinuate otherwise.

I accept the scientific consensus.

I dont feel like being in here today.

So here is a recent article:



And as we have experienced a net solar dimming that would be the vast majority, if not all of warming since 1950 at least man made.
I calculated that it should take something like 10,100 hp to push a container ship at 10kts.

But if the entire surface of a container ship was covered in 66% efficient solar steam boiler power plants that would only provide a maximum of 2760 horse power, and only during the day. This is actually only about enough power to get to a MAXIMUM day time speed of 5kts or so, and since they would be drifting at night time, they may average 2.5kts or less all together.

It woudl seem far more practical to use land based solar power, or platforms in the ocean, to make hydrogen fuel to power the ships, but then you will lose very much in the process.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Oss First of all that is not me and the only reason I saw they quoited you as I had you on ignore for joining in that troll fest the other day.

Second I have this ID for my blog and my name ID Only. Do not insinuate otherwise.

I accept the scientific consensus.

I dont feel like being in here today.

So here is a recent article:



And as we have experienced a net solar dimming that would be the vast majority, if not all of warming since 1950 at least man made.


And your % answer is? ? ? ?

Remember, science is not a consensus sport. Consensus of opinion has nothing to do with science, only opinion.

So what is the percentage that man contributes to the warming you reference? No graphs needed, just a number........ What is it?
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2011 Feb 18 0450 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Feb 18 1000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor



------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 112
Issue Time: 2011 Feb 18 0139 UTC


SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2011 Feb 18 0136 UTC
Deviation: 33 nT
Station: Boulder



------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

100% : if it ain't man-made, it ain't AnthropogenicGlobalWarming.
Quoting RecordSeason:
I calculated that it should take something like 10,100 hp to push a container ship at 10kts.

But if the entire surface of a container ship was covered in 66% efficient solar steam boiler power plants that would only provide a maximum of 2760 horse power, and only during the day. This is actually only about enough power to get to a MAXIMUM day time speed of 5kts or so, and since they would be drifting at night time, they may average 2.5kts or less all together.

It woudl seem far more practical to use land based solar power, or platforms in the ocean, to make hydrogen fuel to power the ships, but then you will lose very much in the process.


platforms over the ocean may not be that bad of an idea...

No idea how it would work, but to illustrate just what I'm talking about, here is a satellite image of the total absorbed daily solar radiance mean for last month:



as you can see the oceans get a lot more than land areas, due to cloud cover
Quoting Ossqss:


And your % answer is? ? ? ?

Remember, science is not a consensus sport. Consensus of opinion has nothing to do with science, only opinion.

So what is the percentage that man contributes to the warming you reference? No graphs needed, just a number........ What is it?

I'm just curious, why are you asking for a specific percent?

Earth's systems are obviously far too complicated to try and come up with a specific, and accurate, percentage as to how much we are contributing.

Your guess is as good as his...
177. OCF
Reminiscences of a childhood in Bartlesville -

Biggest short-term change I remember was 80° in the other direction: about 75° on a Wednesday afternoon, snow starting abruptly Thursday afternoon and continuing to midday Friday with 9" accumulated, then -5° by Saturday morning; all of that happening in late December one year.

As for this year's case: I still don't really understand how it got that cold in a narrow region along the Kansas-Oklahoma border, and why the low didn't settle in the -5° to -10° range. That would have been plenty cold enough, but the extra 20° or so beyond that is the mystery.

As for the warmup into the 70's - of course, those things happen. That high temperature isn't all that unheard of. And I can remember some pretty spectacular winter warmups. I remember a couple of occasions in which the south wind returned during the night on a cold night and by morning all the trees, tree limbs, telephone poles and everything else above ground was coated on the south side by a thick layer of frost that spent the rest of the morning falling off in big chunks.

But wasn't there 20" or so of snow on the ground this time? It seems that should have slowed the rate of warmup and possibly created a dense bank of ground fog. I guess it didn't happen that way.
Quoting Ossqss:


And your % answer is? ? ? ?

Remember, science is not a consensus sport. Consensus of opinion has nothing to do with science, only opinion.

So what is the percentage that man contributes to the warming you reference? No graphs needed, just a number........ What is it?


I got an answer finally from them the other after asking the same question numerous times... drum roll please.... 80 - 120%

IHNFI how you get more then 100%, but that's what he said.
Scientists connect global warming to extreme rain
By SETH BORENSTEIN , 02.16.11, 03:24 PM EST

WASHINGTON --

Extreme rainstorms and snowfalls have grown substantially stronger, two studies suggest, with scientists for the first time finding the telltale fingerprints of man-made global warming on downpours that often cause deadly flooding.

Two studies in Wednesday's issue of the journal Nature link heavy rains to increases in greenhouse gases more than ever before...more



Wow~ 2.3 million died from flooding since 1950.. models underestimated the amount of rain we should be seeing.

Rising seas threaten 180 U.S. cities by 2100: study
Reuters

By Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent – Wed Feb 16, 5:29 pm ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Rising seas spurred by climate change could threaten 180 U.S. coastal cities by 2100, a new study says, with Miami, New Orleans and Virginia Beach among those most severely affected.

Previous studies have looked at where rising waters might go by the end of this century, assuming various levels of sea level rise, but this latest research focused on municipalities in the contiguous 48 states with population of 50,000 or more.

Cities along the southern Atlantic coast and the Gulf of Mexico will likely be hardest hit if global sea levels rise, as projected, by about 3 feet (1 meter) by 2100, researchers reported in the journal Climate Change Letters.

Sea level rise is expected to be one result of global warming as ice on land melts and flows toward the world's oceans.

Using data from the U.S. Geological Survey, the scientists were able to calculate in detail how much land could be lost as seas rise, said study author Jeremy Weiss of the University of Arizona.

Rising coastal waters threaten an average of nine percent of the land in the 180 coastal cities in the study.

Miami, New Orleans, Tampa, Florida, and Virginia Beach, Virginia could lose more than 10 percent of their land area by century's end, the study found.

New York City, Washington DC and the San Francisco Bay area could face lesser impacts, according to the study...more here


Taking Action for a Coal Free Future

This morning Greenpeace activists have scaled the Bridgeport Harbor Generating Station coal elevator and unfurled a huge banner reading "Shut it Down: Quit Coal." The coal plant is an aging, inefficient plant that endangers the health of Bridgeport residents, including the children attending the six schools located within a one mile radius of the plant.

The protest is happening as Greenpeace's ship, the Arctic Sunrise, sailed up the East Coast for its Coal Free Future Tour. Nationwide, pollution from coal is responsible for more than 13,000 deaths per year – one person every forty minutes.

The plants owners Public Service Enterprise Group should protect public health and stop allowing the toxic plant to continue operating against the wishes of the people of Bridgeport.
MAP 4.0 2011/02/18 04:59:50 35.248 -92.408 3.2 ARKANSAS
Quoting Orcasystems:


I got an answer finally from them the other after asking the same question numerous times... drum roll please.... 80 - 120%

IHNFI how you get more then 100%, but that's what he said.


RETRACTION/CORRECTION ON MY PART.. IT SHOULD SAY "THEY" SAID, NOT "HE" SAID in line 2


595. Neapolitan 5:46 PM GMT on February 12, 2011 Hide this comment.

Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, maybe you can give me an answer.. and believe it or not, I actually want to know. What percentage of GW is attributed to man.


I tend to agree with NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt on this one. He was asked in 2009 what percentage of global warming is due to human causes vs. natural causes. His response: "Over the last 40 or so years, natural drivers would have caused cooling, and so the warming there has been...is caused by a combination of human drivers and some degree of internal variability. I would judge the maximum amplitude of the internal variability to be roughly 0.1 deg C over that time period, and so given the warming of ~0.5 deg C, I'd say somewhere between 80 to 120% of the warming."
Magnitude 4.0 - ARKANSAS
2011 February 18 04:59:49 UTC
Versión en Español
DetailsSummaryMapsScientific & TechnicalEarthquake Details
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 4.0
Date-Time Friday, February 18, 2011 at 04:59:49 UTC
Thursday, February 17, 2011 at 10:59:49 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 35.248°N, 92.408°W
Depth 3.2 km (2.0 miles) (poorly constrained)
Region ARKANSAS
Distances 20 km (10 miles) N of Conway, Arkansas
55 km (35 miles) N of LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas
60 km (40 miles) W of Searcy, Arkansas
65 km (40 miles) E of Russellville, Arkansas

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 10.1 km (6.3 miles); depth +/- 9.1 km (5.7 miles)
Parameters NST= 78, Nph= 87, Dmin=12.2 km, Rmss=0.84 sec, Gp= 36°,
M-type="Nuttli" surface wave magnitude (mbLg), Version=5
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)


Event ID usb0001gkl
Montana Considers Repealing Reality in the Interest of Economic Development

Another nomination for not bill of the week award..

A bill for an Act entitled: "An Act Stating Montana's Position on Global Warming"

Section 1. Public policy concerning global warming.
(1) The legislature finds that to ensure economic development in Montana and the appropriate management of Montana's natural resources it is necessary to adopt a public policy regarding global warming.
(2) The legislature finds:
(a) global warming is beneficial to the welfare and business climate of Montana;
(b) reasonable amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere have no verifiable impacts on the environment; and
(c) global warming is a natural occurrence and human activity has not accelerated it.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Oss First of all that is not me and the only reason I saw they quoited you as I had you on ignore for joining in that troll fest the other day.

Second I have this ID for my blog and my name ID Only. Do not insinuate otherwise.

I accept the scientific consensus.

I dont feel like being in here today.

So here is a recent article:



And as we have experienced a net solar dimming that would be the vast majority, if not all of warming since 1950 at least man made.


You know, a long time ago people were told, and they believed, that smoking was good for them. The stars made smoking glamorous. Commercials implied that you would be more of man. The tobacco companies spent a lot of money to make sure the general public believed smoking was a good thing.

But do you know who started to think that smoking wasn't a good thing? Doctors and scientists. Study after study and research article after research article came out showing increasingly bad news for tobacco smokers.

And who did the public listen to? The commercials. The billboards. The stars. The companies. They even got their own "doctors" and "scientists" to show that smoking was still a good thing. Of course, the studies produced by these charlatans were a joke, and just about every real doctor and scientist investigating the matter knew this, but the people didn't want to hear it. And of course, the elected reps of big tobacco states weren't going to stand for the demeaning of their state's big cash cow.

It took decades. Having those big stars they looked up to dying of cancer and looking 30 years older than they should finally had people starting to get the message. And even now, despite all the known dangers and issues, tobacco use is still one of the leading causes of preventable death in the world according to the WHO.

So what is the moral of this story? If your guessing big corp conspiracy theory, you're wrong. The moral of this story is that a lot of people would rather believe a happy lie than a terrible truth, no matter how much proof or evidence you show them.

So JFLORIDA, it won't matter how much evidence there is. It doesn't matter how many warning signs are out there, or how much peer-reviewed research has been done, or how many world recognized science organizations agree. When someone has couched their position in faith and fantasy, there is nothing that will convince them otherwise. Just look at the Birthers, or the Truthers, or the moon landing hoaxers. No amount of reason or logic will prevail.

The combined climate science community has given its equivalent of the Surgeon General's Warning. It remains to be seen whether or not it is listened to.

And if current budget proposals are anything to go by, it isn't being listened to. Se la vi.
Quoting Skyepony:
Montana Considers Repealing Reality in the Interest of Economic Development

Another nomination for not bill of the week award..

A bill for an Act entitled: "An Act Stating Montana's Position on Global Warming"

Section 1. Public policy concerning global warming.
(1) The legislature finds that to ensure economic development in Montana and the appropriate management of Montana's natural resources it is necessary to adopt a public policy regarding global warming.
(2) The legislature finds:
(a) global warming is beneficial to the welfare and business climate of Montana;
(b) reasonable amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere have no verifiable impacts on the environment; and
(c) global warming is a natural occurrence and human activity has not accelerated it.


Reminds me of Indiana when they tried to pass a bill to make pi equal exactly 3.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Reminds of Indiana when they tried to pass a bill to make pi equal exactly 3.


LOL
192. Ylee
Hoosiers would do that.....:)
"Pi are not square, Pi are round!"
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #17
TROPICAL CYCLONE DIANNE (16U)
3:00 PM WST February 18 2011
==========================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Tropical Cyclone Dianne, Category Two (975 hPa) located at 20.2S 109.8E, or 490 km west northwest of Exmouth and 660 km northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

he risk of a coastal impact is much less now that Dianne is moving steadily toward the southwest. Model guidance indicates that it is unlikely to move close to the coast. TC Dianne will be closely monitored to ensure it does not pose a threat to coastal communities. Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Maps will continue to be issued.

Although no direct weather impacts are expected, tides along the entire west coast are likely to exceed the high water mark over the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
The Cyclone WATCH for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Overlander Roadhouse has been CANCELLED.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 20.9S 108.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 21.9S 108.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 23.1S 107.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 25.3S 105.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

LLCC is embedded in MG giving DT 4.0. 24hr trend is S hence MET is 3.5. Applying an EIR analysis to the 0330Z image [despite not being a true eye pattern] gave a similar DT. PAT is 3.5 and FT is set to PAT. ADT is running lower than this but AMSU estimates are running higher.

There is a significant area of convection to the northwest of the CDO that is likely to influence the motion and intensity of the system. Dianne has been near stationary for some time now and upwelling may be reducing the ocean heat content and affecting intensity.

Shear at 00Z was analysed as remaining steady at 6.7m/s from the east southeast. This is consistent with appearance in IR imagery. Shear should improve slightly during Friday night and then by Sunday the system should be experiencing northerly shear and be over much cooler waters.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Cyclone Dianne will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
194. xcool



Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
18:00 PM FST February 18 2011
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (999 hPa) located at 15.1S 169.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The cyclone was reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Organization improved past 24 hours with primary bands struggling to wrap around low level circulation center. Convection has not increased much in the past 6 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. System lies along a surface trough and under the diffluent region. System slightly steered south southeast by a weak northwest deep layer mean regime. CIMSS analysis indicate weak shear to south of system and strong shear over the system. Mid-level ridge to south of system is expected to weaken and retrogress to the west as system moves south.

Dvorak assessment based on 0.3 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.0, PT=2.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

Global models agree on a south southeast movement before moving it southeastward with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.9S 169.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 16.8S 169.7W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.8S 170.8W - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Quoting Cochise111:
Deconstructing the Global Warming Fraud

By Alan Caruba

I have been reviewing books for fifty years and have long since lost count of how ....

From the earliest days the global warming “theory” was proposed I knew that it was a complete hoax. It never made any sense to me that an element of the earth’s atmosphere, carbon dioxide that measured an infinitesimal 0.0389%, could have an effect on the planet’s climate. .........to more than twenty years of global warming lies.


The fatal dose for humans of hydrocyanic acid is 50 mg. On a percent basis, that is far less than the CO2 man has added to the atmosphere.

You get the point probably but I'll go ahead and be probably annoyingly explicit: systems involving mechanisms, or non heterogeneous systems never have size as part of their boundary. Or, more accuratly, the effects of disturbances are non linear. My pellet stove, for example, gets a thin film of soot on the glass if I don't wipe it off. That thin film reduces the radiation heat output considerably, to the point that if it is dirty, I can sit in front of the stove, if it is clean, it is way too hot. The same goes for dust on solar panels, etc..

The thing is, Cochise111, you know this. Just because the system has non-linear mechanisms in it doesn't mean that CO2 will cause the atmosphere to heat. But anyone rejecting a huge body of work by some of the world's most intelligent people based on their personal common sense, at the least should bother to find out why their common sense objections haven't been considered by the people modeling the situation. Chances are they have, and chances are there is a good reason why the objections aren't valid.
prey for good weather http://www.waneefestival.com/ been watching the ocean water level for 30 yrs at this spot there is still no sign of a water level rise.
You are trapped underwater. Common sense tells you to swim as hard as you can for the surface - after all, that's where the air is. Someone is trying to push you down, down into the depths where you will drown. You fight against them. After all, it's only common sense that you can't get up to the top if you go down instead.

And so you drown, not realizing that the person was pushing you down to free you from the objects that had hooked into your clothing and were tethering you to the bottom....


Every thing that seems like common sense isn't sensible.

Have a nice day.... see u at Starbucks!
Happy Friday to all.

I see we had a nice discussion last night between those we believe in Anthropogenic Global Warming and those that do not.

As many would otherwise choose to believe, old man winter will make his return this weekend after the upper Midwest was basking in balmy temperatures many were enjoying. Wind advisories are up for much of the Badger State, along with Storm Warnings for Lake Superior. On the backside of the storm, WI should see some freshly fallen snow.

Although this push of cold air behind the system will not be as severe and last quite as long, and temperatures should rebound nicely thereafter.



Quoting aspectre:
100% : if it ain't man-made, it ain't AnthropogenicGlobalWarming.

Does that mean that algae blooms aren't man made since we don't fertilize our lakes, just our lawns next to the lakes?

Parts of Florida are having control burn bonanzas, thanks to a wet la nina winter. We got ash snow yesterday.
It looks like AGW denialists have a friend and a champion in Montana. House Bill 549, introduced by newbie Representative Joe Read, says the following:

NEW SECTION. Section 1. Public policy concerning global warming.
  1. The legislature finds that to ensure economic development in Montana and the appropriate management of Montana's natural resources it is necessary to adopt a public policy regarding global warming.
  2. The legislature finds:
    1. global warming is beneficial to the welfare and business climate of Montana;
    2. reasonable amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere have no verifiable impacts on the environment; and
    3. global warming is a natural occurrence and human activity has not accelerated it.

So, to summarize: only by spewing even more carbon dioxide Montana's economy grow; and warmer weather sounds absolutely peachy.

The only problem with this bill is, of course, the fact that it's based on stupidity, shortsightedness, greed, arrogance, and a complete ignorance of science. Other than that, however, it's fine. And I suppose some props are in order; at least the clowns in Big Sky Country have given up on the denialist platform of "It's not warming!" Not that that gives me much hope...
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You know, a long time ago people were told, and they believed, that smoking was good for them. The stars made smoking glamorous. Commercials implied that you would be more of man. The tobacco companies spent a lot of money to make sure the general public believed smoking was a good thing.

But do you know who started to think that smoking wasn't a good thing? Doctors and scientists. Study after study and research article after research article came out showing increasingly bad news for tobacco smokers.

And who did the public listen to? The commercials. The billboards. The stars. The companies. They even got their own "doctors" and "scientists" to show that smoking was still a good thing. Of course, the studies produced by these charlatans were a joke, and just about every real doctor and scientist investigating the matter knew this, but the people didn't want to hear it. And of course, the elected reps of big tobacco states weren't going to stand for the demeaning of their state's big cash cow.

It took decades. Having those big stars they looked up to dying of cancer and looking 30 years older than they should finally had people starting to get the message. And even now, despite all the known dangers and issues, tobacco use is still one of the leading causes of preventable death in the world according to the WHO.

So what is the moral of this story? If your guessing big corp conspiracy theory, you're wrong. The moral of this story is that a lot of people would rather believe a happy lie than a terrible truth, no matter how much proof or evidence you show them.

So JFLORIDA, it won't matter how much evidence there is. It doesn't matter how many warning signs are out there, or how much peer-reviewed research has been done, or how many world recognized science organizations agree. When someone has couched their position in faith and fantasy, there is nothing that will convince them otherwise. Just look at the Birthers, or the Truthers, or the moon landing hoaxers. No amount of reason or logic will prevail.

The combined climate science community has given its equivalent of the Surgeon General's Warning. It remains to be seen whether or not it is listened to.

And if current budget proposals are anything to go by, it isn't being listened to. Se la vi.


WOW!! You REALLY hit the nail on the head with this post!! +100,000...couldn't have said it better myself. Very insightful and sadly true. Try to limit the number of these posts, however, as I am trying to avoid depression. LOL!
Quoting Neapolitan:
It looks like AGW denialists have a friend and a champion in Montana. House Bill 549, introduced by newbie Representative Joe Read, says the following:

NEW SECTION. Section 1. Public policy concerning global warming.
  1. The legislature finds that to ensure economic development in Montana and the appropriate management of Montana's natural resources it is necessary to adopt a public policy regarding global warming.
  2. The legislature finds:
    1. global warming is beneficial to the welfare and business climate of Montana;
    2. reasonable amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere have no verifiable impacts on the environment; and
    3. global warming is a natural occurrence and human activity has not accelerated it.

So, to summarize: only by spewing even more carbon dioxide Montana's economy grow; and warmer weather sounds absolutely peachy.

The only problem with this bill is, of course, the fact that it's based on stupidity, shortsightedness, greed, arrogance, and a complete ignorance of science. Other than that, however, it's fine. And I suppose some props are in order; at least the clowns in Big Sky Country have given up on the denialist platform of "It's not warming!" Not that that gives me much hope...


UGH. That's disturbing but not surprising.
@Xyrus2000 : Excellent post definately one of the best I have seen on here on that particular subject. it has a lot of similar parallels to AGW.

Other than that, its a decent weather day here in Kansas City, though 15-20 degrees cooler for highs today (and looks to be ugly this weekend). anyone know if the hurricane outlook has been posted from the docs in CSU yet? I havent had much time to keep up with weather outside of snow storms here :)
Blue sky, 65 degrees with a light southerly breeze. Stay at work or take the afternoon off and head to the golf course?...Hmmmmm, conflicted