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25th Anniversary of Hurricane Hugo Hitting South Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:11 PM GMT on September 21, 2014

On September 21, 1989, Hurricane Hugo began the day as a minimum-strength Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. But as a strong trough of low pressure turned the hurricane to the north and accelerated Hugo to a forward speed of 25 mph, the storm took advantage of low wind shear and warm ocean waters to begin a period of rapid intensification. As darkness fell on the 21st, Hugo had grown to huge Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. Its target: the South Carolina coast near Charleston, at Sullivan's Island. At 11:57 pm on the 21st, Hugo made landfall on Sullivan's Island. It was the strongest hurricane on record to hit South Carolina, and the second strongest hurricane (since reliable records began in 1851) to hit the U.S. East Coast north of Florida. Only Hurricane Hazel of 1954 (Category 4, 140 mph winds) was stronger. With a price tag of $9.7 billion (2010 dollars), Hugo was the most expensive hurricane ever to hit the U.S., until Hurricane Andrew surpassed it in 1992.


Figure 1. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 21, 1989. Hugo had intensified to a formidable Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds.

On Isle of Palms, a barrier island adjacent to Sullivan's Island, the mayor and several police officers were sheltering in a 2-story building which lay at an elevation of ten feet. As related in a story published in the St. Petersburg Times, they heard the following bulletin on the radio at 10:30pm the night Hugo made landfall:

"The National Weather Service has issued a storm surge update. It appears that the storm surge will be greater than anticipated. It is now expected to reach a height of 17 to 21 feet."

"Mom didn't raise an idiot," said the one cop with the most sense, and he convinced the others to get off the island. They left the island by driving at 5 mph through horizontal sheets of rain and hurricane-force wind gusts over the Ben Sawyer Bridge, which connected Sullivan's Island to the mainland. As they crossed onto the bridge, they passed over a large bump--the bridge and road bed were at different levels. Not good. While crossing the bridge, they could feel it swaying and straining, and heard the sound of metal, twisting and grinding and breaking. They made it, but only barely--minutes later, the hurricane tore the center span of the bridge from its connection on both ends, leaving it a twisted ruin in the bay.


Figure 2. The Ben Sawyer Bridge connecting Sullivan's Island to Charleston, South Carolina, after Hurricane Hugo. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

Hugo's storm surge
In McClellanville, on the coast thirty miles northeast of Charleston, between 500 - 1100 people took refuge at the designated shelter for the region, Lincoln High School. Lincoln High is a one-story school, mostly constructed of cinder block, located on the east side of Highway 17, and was believed to be at an altitude of twenty feet. McClellanville is about 4 - 5 miles inland from the open ocean, but lies on the Intracoastal Waterway, so is vulnerable to high storm surges. Near midnight on the 21st, a storm surge of twenty feet poured into Bulls Bay just south of McClellanville, and funneled into the narrow Intracoastal Waterway. Water started pouring into the high school and rose fairly rapidly. Within minutes, people were wading around up to their waists, the water still rising. In the school cafeteria, many refugees gathered on a stage at one end, putting children up on tables. The elevated stage kept them above water; others floated in the water. Another group was in the band room, which had a much lower ceiling than the cafeteria. They had to stand on desks and push out the ceiling tiles for more breathing room, as the water rose within 1 - 2 feet of the ceiling. Fortunately, Hugo's storm surge peaked at that time, at about 16 - 17 feet (Figure 4), and the people sheltering at Lincoln High were spared.


Figure 3. Estimated storm surge (height above ground) as estimated by NOAA's storm surge model, SLOSH. McClellanville (upper right) received a storm surge estimated at 16 - 17 feet.

According to Dr. Stephen Baig, the retired head of the NHC storm surge unit, the back-story is this: To build Lincoln High School, which lies at an altitude of ten feet, the local school board used the same plans that were drawn up for another school that is west of Highway 17, and that IS at 20 feet elevation. Not only the same plans, the same set of working drawings. Those working drawings showed a surveyed elevation of 20 feet above datum (probably NGVD29). Apparently Lincoln High was constructed either without benefit of elevation survey or the plans were not annotated with its site elevation. When the Red Cross inquired as to its utility as an evacuation site, whoever looked at the plans saw the surveyed elevation at 20 feet. That is what the Red Cross published. That is why the school was a designated shelter. Since that near-tragedy, the Red Cross requires a new elevation survey for every potential storm shelter. I think that at the time this was discovered all the designated shelters also were re-surveyed, just to be sure that no similar Lincoln High problems were waiting to happen.

Only one person died from Hugo's storm surge, a woman who sheltered in her mobile home that got struck by the surge. Her death was one of only ten deaths that have occurred due to storm surge in the U.S. in the 35 years between 1969 - 2005 (after the 100+ storm surge deaths due to Hurricane Camille of 1969, and before the 1000+ storm surge deaths due to Hurricane Katrina). This amazingly low death toll can be attributed to four factors:

1) Greater understanding of the storm surge and better storm surge forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, thanks to such tools as the SLOSH storm surge model.

2) The excellent job NWS/NHC/FEMA and state and local Emergency Managers have done educating the public on the potential surge they can expect.

3) The success local government has had making evacuations of low-lying areas work.

4) Luck. The 20+ storm surge deaths on the Bolivar Peninsula in 2008 from Hurricane Ike and the 41 storm surge deaths in New York and New Jersey from Hurricane Sandy show that there are still plenty of stubborn, unlucky, or uneducated people who will die when a significant storm surge hits a low-lying populated coast. To illustrate, I'll present an email sent to me from a resident in the Florida Keys during the Keys evacuation order for Hurricane Ike in 2008: I hate to bother you again, but we live on Marathon in the Florida Keys on the Atlantic side, and my husband says that if we see water coming up from storm surge and have an inch of water in our house, that we can outrun the storm surge in our car. Can you please tell me if there is any way this can possibly be true? P.S., I don't know of anyone who lives down here who is planning on evacuating for Ike. Everyone says they are staying. My response: You are right to be skeptical of your husband's idea. Once the surge begins, it typically rises very quickly. If you wait until the water is an inch high before trying to outrun the surge, the odds are that the surge will rise to over a foot high before you get your car out of the driveway. If the water is a foot high, the typical 10 - 15 mph speed of the storm surge's current has enough force to sweep a car away. The Keys have only one road out, and the storm surge will likely be moving perpendicular to the road, cutting off the only escape route well before the hurricane arrives. One of these days, there are going to be a lot of people who fail to evacuate caught and killed in the Keys by the storm surge from a major hurricane.

Kudos and links
I thank Ken Bass for providing the details on the Lincoln High storm surge near-disaster. Ken has written a very readable book about a fictional Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com has a web page with links to tons of Hurricane Hugo stories. Included are links to YouTube videos of a "Rescue 911" episode that interviewed survivors of the Lincoln High storm surge scare. The show also did a re-creation of the event.

Our Historical storm surge page has SLOSH model storm surge animations of Hurricane Hugo's landafall, as well as of 39 other famous hurricanes.

My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight, recommends this 47-minute video documentary about Women's Stories of Reconstruction after Hurricane Hugo hit McClellanville South Carolina in 1989.

If you've never read my story of flying into Hurricane Hugo, do it. Twenty-five years ago on September 15, 1989, I was the flight director on the first hurricane hunter mission into the hurricane. We intercepted Hurricane Hugo as it approached the Caribbean islands, just before Hugo's destructive rampage through the Caribbean and into South Carolina. The crew of the airplane were the first people to encounter the mighty hurricane--and very nearly became its first victims. The mission remains the most harrowing flight ever conducted by the NOAA hurricane hunters. I served as flight meteorologist on that flight, and feel fortunate indeed to be able to tell the story.

Quiet in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Jumping back to September 21, 2014, it's quiet in the Atlantic, where tropical wave 95L off the coast of Africa remains disorganized. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development near 0%. This wave will bring heavy rain showers to the Cape Verdes Islands on Sunday and Monday.

In the Eastern Pacific, minimal-strength Tropical Storm Polo continues to weaken due to high wind shear as it heads west-northwest out to sea. All watches and warnings have been dropped in Mexico for Polo. A weak area of low pressure (99E) a few hundred miles south of the Guatemala/Mexico border was given 5-day odds of development of 40% by NHC in their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook. Our reliable computer models do not show 99E being a threat to make landfall during the next five days.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Fung-Wong made landfall in southern Taiwan Sunday morning with sustained winds near 55 mph, knocking out power to 40,000 customers. Fung-Wong brushed the northern end of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Friday morning with sustained winds of 45 mph, bringing torrential rains that flooded Manila and killed ten people. The storm is headed north towards a third landfall in Mainland China, which is expected to occur Monday evening.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at the tropics in his Sunday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Here's an article from ABC NEWS published this week on the Antarctic sea ice.


Extent of Antarctic sea ice reaches record levels, scientists say


Scientists say the extent of Antarctic sea ice cover is at its highest level since records began.

Satellite imagery reveals an area of about 20 million square kilometres covered by sea ice around the Antarctic continent.

Jan Lieser from the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) said the discovery was made two days ago.

"This is an area covered by sea ice which we've never seen from space before," he said.

"Thirty-five years ago the first satellites went up which were reliably telling us what area, two dimensional area, of sea ice was covered and we've never seen that before, that much area.

"That is roughly double the size of the Antarctic continent and about three times the size of Australia."



Audio: Researchers argue the increase in sea ice does not negate the reality of global warming. (PM)


The formation of sea ice around Antarctica every year is one of the biggest seasonal events on Earth.

The ice is generated in what scientists refer to as "sea ice factories" or polynia - areas of the ocean surface where currents and wind patterns combine to generate sea ice.

As soon as sea ice is produced in these polynias it is actually transported away from that so more sea ice can be produced," Dr Lieser said.

As the area covered in sea ice expands scientists have said the ice on the continent of Antarctica which is not over the ocean continues to deplete.

CEO of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, Tony Worby, said the warming atmosphere is leading to greater sea ice coverage by changing wind patterns.

"The extent of sea ice is driven by the winds around Antarctica, and we believe that they're increasing in strength and part of that is around the depletion of ozone," he said.

He said changes to sea ice levels could have implications for the entire Antarctic ecosystem.

"So the sea ice is a very important habitat for krill in particular and for the reproduction of krill and that forms one of the absolute staples of the diet for many species in the Antarctic."

While the Antarctic ecosystem braces for change, the world's Antarctic research vessels will also have to contend with treacherous conditions in the months ahead.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-14/record-cove rage-of-antarctic-sea-ice/5742668
It looks like the northeast is going get some rain.

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters
Thanks, doc!
What would happen to the blog if we had a Hugo repeat occur?.
Thank You Dr for the reminder as to Hugo; it was devastating for Charlestown and other parts of the Carolinas and when I toured there (the train tour) about five years ago, the guides point out some still visible high water marks on a few buildings from the storm surge.

In terms of the present, beautiful cloud-free morning in North Florida with early am temps in the 60's and no hurricanes threatening anyone in the Atlantic. In the big scheme of things, and particularly for the hurricane prone parts of the Caribbean and US, it's been a good several weeks with the exception of the flooding issues from the two recent E-Pac system as they moved inland; hope it stays that way.
Quoting 5. washingtonian115:

What would happen to the blog if we had a Hugo repeat occur?.

Those were the days
Thanks for the New Post, Dr. Masters,
Quoting washingtonian115:
What would happen to the blog if we had a Hugo repeat occur?.


Hugo, Andrew, Katrina, Charley, .....

It will happen again. It's just a question of when.
Quoting 2. Grothar:

It looks like the northeast is going get some rain.



We need it badly, but unfortunately that whole mess is sailing straight out to sea. Might clip Cape Cod. Drought is starting to become a headline in southern New England, especially with little to no rain appearing likely for the next 10-14 days after today.

Thanks Dr. Masters, Hugo was quite a storm. Another pretty famous hurricane anniversary today as well:

Would also note that the Fort on Sullivan's Island was the port of entry for the large majority of African slaves brought to the US during the slave trade by the British..................We have visited those parts on several occassions with the family. That part of the Carolinas, including Charlestown is one of the most beautiful coastal areas in the US; that whole stretch from Savannah up through Virginia with the salt marshes, barrier islands, and the very rich history..................The downside is the over development. It's a little hard to find the little "beach access" areas, with minimal parking, in between the private beach homes and resorts if you are just driving through for the day and not paying the big bucks to stay there and rent.
Quoting 1. Sfloridacat5:

Researchers argue the increase in sea ice does not negate the reality of global warming.


Not only does the record Antarctic sea ice not 'negate the reality' of global warming, global warming is actually the cause of the record.

"More sea ice may seem odd in a warmer world, but new records are expected every few years, says Jan Lieser of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre in Hobart. That's because the southern hemisphere warms more slowly than the north, as it has less landmass, boosting the winds that circle Antarctica and pulling cold air onto the sea ice."
Thanks, Dr. M. I wondered if you'd put up a 25th remembrance. Did mine last night.

Been there; did that and I'm NOT doing it again!
Today is also another anniversary of Hurricane Georges making landfall in Puerto Rico in 1998.The question is when will the next landfall of a hurricane in PR occurs as things have been relatively quiet on that here.Only Tropical Storms Jeanne and Irene crossed the island but no more hurricanes.



Quoting 11. weathermanwannabe:
Would also note that the Fort on Sullivan's Island was the port of entry for the large majority of African slaves brought to the US during the slave trade by the British..................We have visited those parts on several occassions with the family. That part of the Carolinas, including Charlestown is one of the most beautiful coastal areas in the US; that whole stretch from Savannah up through Virginia with the salt marshes, barrier islands, and the very rich history..................The downside is the over development. It's a little hard to find the little "beach access" areas, with minimal parking, in between the private beach homes and resorts if you are just driving through for the day and not paying the big bucks to stay there and rent.


I agree; I love where I live but the overdevelopment here is sickening.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
cloudiness and showers near and to the southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are not conducive for
development, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected.
However, the low is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could
bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Cape Verde Islands during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.


BOOOO!!!
Vermont Historical Society
Hurricane of 1938





Millions of board feet of lumber was processed from the "windthrow" in area forests. Lakes and ponds were used for emergency storage of the logs (photo: Farm Security Administration).





A South Pleasant Street home in Bradford (top) narrowly escaped the kind of damage done to the Brock House on the Bradford-Newbury line (photos: Bradford Historical Society).

Originally printed on September 17, 2008
Journal Opinion


“A gust of wind picked me up, carried me two or three feet off the ground for 50 feet and set me down gently, unharmed”. That was Dr. Edwin Blaisdell’s experience with the “big blow,” the Hurricane of 1938. That childhood experience of 70 years ago is mild by comparison to that of other residents. The Eastern Seaboard Hurricane or the Great New England Hurricane of 1938, it was one of the most destructive storms to strike the area, caused major damage throughout the Northeast. Damage was especially high in coastal areas where winds reached 80-100 mph.

Six hundred and eighty Northeast residents lost their lives, 30,000 were injured and 93,000 were left homeless. Sixteen hundred homes and businesses were destroyed along with major loss of livestock, automobiles and boats. There was major damage to forests, fruit groves and crops, caused by both wind and soggy ground. In Vermont and neighboring New Hampshire, the damage was second only to the 1927 flood and, in fact, more widespread. Total damage from the storm was estimated at $600 million in 1939 dollars.

Throughout the area, salvage saw mills were opened to handle the lumber, reviving the depressed forest industry. Lewis Woods, who was in charge of a large mill in Piermont, is quoted in that town’s history: ”The Gould Field site produced the largest amount in New England of any dry site … a bit over six million feet. In a radius of 10 miles of Piermont, approximately 25 million feet of salvage timber was sawn into lumber by the operation of seven saw mills.” The Northeastern Timber Salvage Administration operated mills in West Newbury and on Roaring Brook in Bradford. Haskin’s History of Bradford states that the project “revived temporarily the faltering sawmill operations in this area.” Saw mills in Lyme turned out millions of board feet of lumber from the water-soaked logs. One logger was quoted in Lyme’s Patterns and Pieces, saying it was “like cutting wet towels.”

Additionally, those area mills producing wood products were in full operation. Bowen-Hunter’s bobbin mill in East Corinth was reported as “running at full capacity” with an increased workforce as was a shingle mill and veneer mill in Bradford. Lumber was used to repair or rebuild buildings and produce wood products. Some was requisitioned for the war effort during World War II.

Another aspect of the forest recovery was the prevention of forest fires. Esther Eastman, who now lives in Newbury, worked for the WPA as secretary to Ed DeGraff. He was in charge of the Forest Service’s fire hazard section for Vermont. She recalls working on the damage maps and noticing that Newbury had suffered the most forest destruction of any town in Orange County. Roads were constructed and firebreaks created. Lookouts, including one on Wright’s Mountain, watched for forest fires. Eastman says while she could recall no major fires, an outbreak would have created fires similar to those experienced recently by California. Blaisdell says his father worked for the Forest Service in New Hampshire and recalls that several mountains burned, the flames fueled by the “slash and blowdown.”

All of this additional work came near the end of the Great Depression with its high unemployment. When viewing the damage left by the storm, one area lumberman was reported to have said: “FDR’s been trying to create work for five years and God Almighty has created all the work we need in half an hour!”

The Hurricane of 1938 was a 100-year storm for our area. That means that in any year there is a one percent chance of a repeat. In a 1965 article on the storm, Harold Haskins wrote “in the West Indies, the natives call it ‘huracan’-the evil spirit.” From this hurricane and others since, we have learned the meaning of a hurricane, its dangers and consequences. We know that weather reporting services will make us aware of pending storms early. We have learned how to prepare for one from recent hurricane disasters on the Gulf coast. However, as the editor of The United Opinion wrote that on September 21, 1938, “Mother Nature has again demonstrated her supremacy over human beings.” In the ensuing years, we have done little to mitigate that supremacy or conquer that evil spirit.



Link
Thanks for the New Post, Dr. Masters, I LOVE IT
Quoting 11. weathermanwannabe:

Would also note that the Fort on Sullivan's Island was the port of entry for the large majority of African slaves brought to the US during the slave trade by the British..................We have visited those parts on several occassions with the family. That part of the Carolinas, including Charlestown is one of the most beautiful coastal areas in the US; that whole stretch from Savannah up through Virginia with the salt marshes, barrier islands, and the very rich history..................The downside is the over development. It's a little hard to find the little "beach access" areas, with minimal parking, in between the private beach homes and resorts if you are just driving through for the day and not paying the big bucks to stay there and rent.


Garden City SC and Wrightsville Beach NC are nice beaches where there is generally a place to park for free, depending on the time. The overdevelopment of these coasts will come back to bite us at some point.
I encourage everyone to read Dr Masters account of flying into Hugo also. I usually read it once or twice a season, its that good. Its interesting, educational and very well written. Thanks Dr. M.
Sullivan's Island was not only used for quarantine of incoming slaves. It was also used as a quarantine for victims of yellow fever and other communicable diseases. History of Sullivan's Island.
Quoting 20. K8eCane:
I encourage everyone to read Dr Masters account of flying into Hugo also. I usually read it once or twice a season, its that good. Its interesting, educational and very well written. Thanks Dr. M.


I second the motion. I saw Dr. M and some of the other crewmembers on our local news this past week, discussing their experience.
Quoting 1. Sfloridacat5:

Here's an article from ABC NEWS published this week on the Antarctic sea ice.


Extent of Antarctic sea ice reaches record levels, scientists say


Scientists say the extent of Antarctic sea ice cover is at its highest level since records began.

Satellite imagery reveals an area of about 20 million square kilometres covered by sea ice around the Antarctic continent.

Jan Lieser from the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) said the discovery was made two days ago.

"This is an area covered by sea ice which we've never seen from space before," he said.

"Thirty-five years ago the first satellites went up which were reliably telling us what area, two dimensional area, of sea ice was covered and we've never seen that before, that much area.

"That is roughly double the size of the Antarctic continent and about three times the size of Australia."



Audio: Researchers argue the increase in sea ice does not negate the reality of global warming. (PM)


The formation of sea ice around Antarctica every year is one of the biggest seasonal events on Earth.

The ice is generated in what scientists refer to as "sea ice factories" or polynia - areas of the ocean surface where currents and wind patterns combine to generate sea ice.

As soon as sea ice is produced in these polynias it is actually transported away from that so more sea ice can be produced," Dr Lieser said.

As the area covered in sea ice expands scientists have said the ice on the continent of Antarctica which is not over the ocean continues to deplete.

CEO of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, Tony Worby, said the warming atmosphere is leading to greater sea ice coverage by changing wind patterns.

"The extent of sea ice is driven by the winds around Antarctica, and we believe that they're increasing in strength and part of that is around the depletion of ozone," he said.

He said changes to sea ice levels could have implications for the entire Antarctic ecosystem.

"So the sea ice is a very important habitat for krill in particular and for the reproduction of krill and that forms one of the absolute staples of the diet for many species in the Antarctic."

While the Antarctic ecosystem braces for change, the world's Antarctic research vessels will also have to contend with treacherous conditions in the months ahead.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-14/record-cove rage-of-antarctic-sea-ice/5742668
Note again: the "coverage" of an area of Antarctic sea ice needs to be a minimum of 15% of the area actually occupied by physical ice. If you have a 10x10 foot room with 1 foot square floor tiles, there would only have to be 15 floor tiles on the floor for it to be "covered by floor tiles" by this definition. If the room was 7x7 feet and had 15 floor tiles, it would be 30% covered, and expanding it to 10x10 feet with the same number of tiles would result in a room covered with floor tiles. The actual amount of ice in the Antarctic Ocean may be less than exists in the Arctic -- we don't know because it is "more than 15% of the area".
great read doc
thanks for the sunday update
have a good day
Now that Edouard has dissipated I've updated the Atlantic hurricane montage of 2014 to include the first Category 3 hurricane since Sandy 2012.

Thanks so much Dr.Masters! I was looking for more info on Hugo and I come on here and there a new post on Hugo. lol This paper is turning out to be alot of fun! Thanks alot for risking so much to go into Hugo and help us learn so much about hurricanes!
12Z NAM at 84 hours

The NAM is showing a nice wave in the western Caribbean headed into the Yucatan.

Wreckhouse wind warning in effect for:
•Channel-Port aux Basques and vicinity

Very strong wind gusts are expected or occurring

Strong southeasterly winds gusting to 110 km/h are expected to develop this evening as an intense low pressure system tracks west of Newfoundland. Winds gusts are forecast to increase to 140 km/h Monday morning before diminishing Monday afternoon when the winds shift southwesterly.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions due to high winds. Very strong winds may push your vehicle around especially on roads through mountain passes and along deep valleys.

Wreckhouse Wind Warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Stay up to date with Weatheradio or your local media. Email reports of severe weather to weatherNLWO@ec.gc.ca or call 1-877-815-9900. You may tweet reports using the hashtag #NLwx.
Quoting 23. CaneFreeCR:

Note again: the "coverage" of an area of Antarctic sea ice needs to be a minimum of 15% of the area actually occupied by physical ice. If you have a 10x10 foot room with 1 foot square floor tiles, there would only have to be 15 floor tiles on the floor for it to be "covered by floor tiles" by this definition. If the room was 7x7 feet and had 15 floor tiles, it would be 30% covered, and expanding it to 10x10 feet with the same number of tiles would result in a room covered with floor tiles. The actual amount of ice in the Antarctic Ocean may be less than exists in the Arctic -- we don't know because it is "more than 15% of the area".

Although technically true, the discussion over differences between sea ice "extent" and sea ice "area" are not really relevant. The key is that antarctic sea ice changes are not the same as arctic sea ice changes, and the 2D gains in antarctic sea ice are occuring at a time when the southern ocean is warming and the continent is losing land ice. Thus it is not a sign of cooling.
Quoting 12. Neapolitan:



Not only does the record Antarctic sea ice not 'negate the reality' of global warming, global warming is actually the cause of the record.

"More sea ice may seem odd in a warmer world, but new records are expected every few years, says Jan Lieser of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre in Hobart. That's because the southern hemisphere warms more slowly than the north, as it has less landmass, boosting the winds that circle Antarctica and pulling cold air onto the sea ice."

And the bigger issue is really the freshening of ocean waters along the periphery of Antarctica as well as the loss of land ice. The increase (2D) in ice is occurring during warming while the larger decrease (2D and 3D) loss of ice in the Arctic is occurring during warming as well.
People continue to misunderstand that having a continent at one pole and not at the other is causing them to behave differently under the same climate change condition.
Well now, the Atl is dead...
Meanwhile Ex-Ed is spinning in the vicinity of the Azores.

Though the GFS says: "Don't loose hope!"



36. JRRP
GFS 12z
180h


192h

240h

ah.. and also is showing a low pressure in the Gulf


For whatever reason, Polo has suddenly put out a large burst of convection.
1989 was a year of two costly disasters about a month apart.

Hurricane Hugo and the Loma Prieta Earthquake.
atm carlsbad caves new mexico being evacuated heavy flooding twc
Quoting 32. ScottLincoln:


Although technically true, the discussion over differences between sea ice "extent" and sea ice "area" are not really relevant. The key is that antarctic sea ice changes are not the same as arctic sea ice changes, and the 2D gains in antarctic sea ice are occuring at a time when the southern ocean is warming and the continent is losing land ice. Thus it is not a sign of cooling.

And the bigger issue is really the freshening of ocean waters along the periphery of Antarctica as well as the loss of land ice. The increase (2D) in ice is occurring during warming while the larger decrease (2D and 3D) loss of ice in the Arctic is occurring during warming as well.
People continue to misunderstand that having a continent at one pole and not at the other is causing them to behave differently under the same climate change condition.

Excellent observations.
Quoting 32. ScottLincoln:


Although technically true, the discussion over differences between sea ice "extent" and sea ice "area" are not really relevant. The key is that antarctic sea ice changes are not the same as arctic sea ice changes, and the 2D gains in antarctic sea ice are occuring at a time when the southern ocean is warming and the continent is losing land ice.
I disagree that the difference is irrelevant. I maintain that the actual area of Antarctic sea ice is an important datum, lost within the specification of the extent of the ice being the amount of ocean containing at least 15% ice. As the winds increase due to warming they probably are redistributing the same amount of ice over a larger area. It is NOT necessarily an increase in the amount Antarctic sea ice. This is the detail that is lost in the positing of sea ice extent. There may actually be LESS Antarctic sea ice, it's just spread farther apart. I think this is a very important distinction, given the importance of Antarctic ice and its loss to the effect on and of climate change.
The trailing end of a wave moving through the central Caribbean. On visible satellite it looks to be centered south of Hispaniola. This is probably the wave the NAM is showing.
I would feel pretty comfortable saying this season is over.
95L......

Quoting LargoFl:


With this stalled out front across Florida and the GOM we could get little spin ups.

NHC is predicting another low forming in that area, but earlier in time.
It doesn't seem to amount to much, but it keeps the weather rather unstable across Florida due to the stalled out front.

Another EPAC TC shortly.

Showers and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
has become better organized this morning. Environmental conditions
are conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next several days as the low
moves west-northwestward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...near 30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
Quoting 14. Tropicsweatherpr:

Today is also another anniversary of Hurricane Georges making landfall in Puerto Rico in 1998.The question is when will the next landfall of a hurricane in PR occurs as things have been relatively quiet on that here.Only Tropical Storms Jeanne and Irene crossed the island but no more hurricanes.






I think some people forget how brutal the winds were in parts of Puerto Rico during Georges, this video is a great reminder of how strong it was:

Here's also some extreme wind footage from Hugo in Puerto Rico, this is scary stuff, the damage is extreme too, reminds me of Charley and Andrew:

Quoting 43. help4u:

At least we know now from the climate conference that global warming is now a hoax it is all about a political agenda,socialist government.Has been from the beginning anti capitalism agenda.Now we can talk about this from a political agenda where it belongs!This quote says it all "remember the earth is a million degrees hot"!ALGORE What a joke this has become with all the climategate stuff and changing weather data.Now the dissucusion can be moved to socialism.Never has worked and never will.


If this is all you have to say, why come here?

Quoting 48. Sfloridacat5:



With this stalled out front across Florida and the GOM we could get little spin ups.

NHC is prediction another low forming in that area, but earlier in time.
It doesn't seem to amount to much, but it keeps the weather rather unstable across Florida due to the stalled out front.


yes mon-tues my rain chances go way up nws says...
i t's over
i know this is a couple of days old
ice storm in italy
Link
Well for those who are supposed to be above temps this coming week I just wanted to let you know that wont be the case for NC..just thought I would let you know when you don't talk about winter constantly you instead get the "winter like" experience..might try that approach and it may just work..

NWS, Wilmington, NC
THE FIRST WEEK OF FALL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A DECIDEDLY WINTER-LIKE FEEL WITH
CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN...AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO.

Sorry..better luck next trough..
there is no more 95L it now ex 95L

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasc

nothing on two that say we have 95L any more


Quoting 57. Sfloridacat5:

95L




Quoting 55. Naga5000:



Ahh yes, the tin foil hat, "the socialists" are coming argument. If you believe in the free market deregulation of industry so much, I invite you to take a drink from the Elk River or maybe the Dan River is more your speed.

We've had a mixed economy for some time now, pure capitalism is selfish and favors profit over people, pure socialism stagnates growth, there is a middle ground. Ideologues stand in the way of progress and tend to get run over.

Not one single reputable scientific organization in the world denies the reality of AGW. I think I'll take their word and the word of scientists over a poorly written, barely coherent paragraph of nonsense.


+1X10^5
Quoting 54. LargoFl:

yes mon-tues my rain chances go way up nws says...
It could be a future spin on the western part of Cuba or just North of the Yucatan Peninsula,this low can form from the end tail of the stalled front that we have over South FLorida,wondering if any models are hinting at this?
Quoting 12. Neapolitan:



Not only does the record Antarctic sea ice not 'negate the reality' of global warming, global warming is actually the cause of the record.

"More sea ice may seem odd in a warmer world, but new records are expected every few years, says Jan Lieser of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre in Hobart. That's because the southern hemisphere warms more slowly than the north, as it has less landmass, boosting the winds that circle Antarctica and pulling cold air onto the sea ice."


Less ice you guys scream AWG more ice you guys scream AGW. The Antarctic setting all time records wasn't predicted by any of the models. How can any reasonable person take you seriously?
Quoting 64. PensacolaDoug:



Less ice you guys scream AWG more ice you guys scream AGW. The Antarctic setting all time records wasn't predicted by any of the models. How can any reasonable person take you seriously?

well you can take me serious
we simply do not know
what significant changes will occur
as climate change moves forwards
and results will differ
just like last winter
the northern hemisphere experience
at times extreme winter weather
during the cold season
now too the Antarctic
is experiencing extreme ice conditions
during there cold season
indicating that wide swings
are pending or occurring as we move forward
in a climate changing world

expect the unexpected
Quoting 48. Sfloridacat5:



With this stalled out front across Florida and the GOM we could get little spin ups.

NHC is predicting another low forming in that area, but earlier in time.
It doesn't seem to amount to much, but it keeps the weather rather unstable across Florida due to the stalled out front.




Yep, a lot more rain is on the way, Monday through Wednesday is looking like numerous showers and thunderstorms with pretty widespread beneficial rains likely, locally heavier totals in excess of several inches could cause flooding in poor drainage areas, but nothing extreme, and certainly nothing Florida isn't used to. There have been some bloggers hyping this pattern as if its something rare for Florida. In actuality there hasn't been enough of it this summer, as this summer in Central Florida came in at only 50% of normal rainfall, but in closer look, a few local areas hogged most of rain all summer, and some places ended up in the top 10 driest summers on record, and a few sites set new records.

So far September has been wetter in a lot of the state, especially The Tampa Bay area which was the driest this summer, so in reality this pattern is more of "its about time" rather than "omg epic historic flooding coming!!11!11".

Even then, its not that big of a deal, most summers we see more impressive events at some point.

The only reason there is only moderate drought being listed in Central Florida right now is that is pretty short term drought, and the Spring was quite wet in a lot of the area, which helped.
Just looking back at the blog, I thought Hazel and Hugo were both 115 kt storms at their landfalls in Charleston and Brunswick counties respectively. Didn't know Hazel was stronger. Also like Andrew tracks still show it as a cat-4 hitting south Dade tracks show Hazel as a cat-3 upon landfall.
Quoting 43. help4u:

At least we know now from the climate conference that global warming is now a hoax it is all about a political agenda,socialist government.Has been from the beginning anti capitalism agenda.Now we can talk about this from a political agenda where it belongs!This quote says it all "remember the earth is a million degrees hot"!ALGORE What a joke this has become with all the climategate stuff and changing weather data.Now the dissucusion can be moved to socialism.Never has worked and never will.

Although I think we should be careful not to use a snarky tone, I am very open to and tend to believe the idea of it all being a hoax. Many people smell a rat here. We have no idea if all the peer reviewed stuff if slanted. And since "credible scientists" comprise the majority, any scientists outside of this (even if they are completely honest and correct) are shunned and labeled as renegade. The layperson has to take the "group of elite's" word for granted, and many of us simply don't trust it. It's impossible to find out for sure, but if they were all lying, it would be very hard to unravel since it's mixed partly with truth and hidden in scientific jargon the layperson can't pick apart. Regardless, the pro-human induced-climate change scientists have the general population in the palm of their hand whether they're lying or not.

That's my take on it at this point in time.
69. SLU
Quoting 60. Tazmanian:

there is no more 95L it now ex 95L

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasc

nothing on two that say we have 95L any more








Oh my ... this is like the 5th time the NHC busted on a wave near Africa this season? Like I said the last time, I think the 5-day TWO needs some more fine tuning in order for it to be more accurate. I don't think the computer models on which they rely very heavily are reading the situation in the far eastern Atlantic very well. That said, the 5-day TWO has been quite successful in the EPAC.
Quoting 64. PensacolaDoug:



Less ice you guys scream AWG more ice you guys scream AGW. The Antarctic setting all time records wasn't predicted by any of the models. How can any reasonable person take you seriously?


How can we take comments like yours seriously when they are demonstratively false.

1991, Manabe et al.'s model predicts an increase in Antarctic Sea Ice Link

1991...

Edit: There are many models that got it correct, and many that did not. One issue with GCM's, is they lack the resolutions to correctly model polynyas at this point, increases that have been modeled have been attributed to increases in precipitation which is only 1 of many factors involved.

Schneider and Thompson (1981)
Bryan et al (1988)
Hey Taz, You get any hail yesterday....
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yep, a lot more rain is on the way, Monday through Wednesday is looking like numerous showers and thunderstorms with pretty widespread beneficial rains likely, locally heavier totals in excess of several inches could cause flooding in poor drainage areas, but nothing extreme, and certainly nothing Florida isn't used to. There have been some bloggers hyping this pattern as if its something rare for Florida. In actuality there hasn't been enough of it this summer, as this summer in Central Florida came in at only 50% of normal rainfall, but in closer look, a few local areas hogged most of rain all summer, and some places ended up in the top 10 driest summers on record, and a few sites set new records.

So far September has been wetter in a lot of the state, especially The Tampa Bay area which was the driest this summer, so in reality this pattern is more of "its about time" rather than "omg epic historic flooding coming!!11!11".

Even then, its not that big of a deal, most summers we see more impressive events at some point.

The only reason there is only moderate drought being listed in Central Florida right now is that is pretty short term drought, and the Spring was quite wet in a lot of the area, which helped.



I posted in the earlier blog that here in Fort Myers we're 14" below normal for the year.
We're also around 2" below normal for the month of Sept.

It's even worse than that here in my neighborhood. I've only picked up 2.57" for the month of Sept in my weather station. I should have over 6 at this time during a normal Sept.



It's September 21, 2014 (The last day of Summer) and THE TROPICS ARE DEAD!
Quoting 32. ScottLincoln:


Although technically true, the discussion over differences between sea ice "extent" and sea ice "area" are not really relevant. The key is that antarctic sea ice changes are not the same as arctic sea ice changes, and the 2D gains in antarctic sea ice are occuring at a time when the southern ocean is warming and the continent is losing land ice. Thus it is not a sign of cooling.

And the bigger issue is really the freshening of ocean waters along the periphery of Antarctica as well as the loss of land ice. The increase (2D) in ice is occurring during warming while the larger decrease (2D and 3D) loss of ice in the Arctic is occurring during warming as well.
People continue to misunderstand that having a continent at one pole and not at the other is causing them to behave differently under the same climate change condition.

Yeah, the problem is that some people attempt to over-simplify the issue. Yes its true we should question things, but questioning is only as good as the desire to learn. The whole point of questioning as being a good thing is the hope to learn more about something. However, that does no good if he/she lacks any intent of learning, and comes in with fully conscious biases.

For example, those that vehemently demand why the Antarctic has more sea ice don't try to learn more about how climate change actually works, why warming is occurring and the differences between the Arctic and the Antarctic. Unlike those studying the issue and genuinely wanting to earn more about it, they aren't intrigued why the antarctic sea ice has increased some in response to the same warming that has led to so much Arctic ice loss.

This form of questioning is one that desires confrontation, and never wants to learn the truth in the first place, it is one intent on stirring people to anger. This is because he/she automatically just shouts that "Antarctic sea is proof Global Warming isn't happening!!!! See I knew you scientists were all part of an elaborate hoax!!!".

It reminds of how when my brother was in college and he worked at Best Buy and was in customer service, he would get some people who would ask questions like "Why isn't my phone working, or why did my computer crash" etc... Some of those people he said listened and wanted to learn, because they legitimately wanted to learn more, and their question didn't come with prior biased intent to cause trouble.

However, he said that some people would ask the same questions, but instead of quietly learning and getting tips, they would be become angry and start fighting and debating with him and others at customer service why they are wrong. He said that their arguments were absolutely stupid because they were debating from a completely ignorant perspective, about something they didn't know about. The fact is, they wanted help but really did not want to be instructed and told what to do. They would rather argue out of pride than learn, their intent was only to cause harm, not to learn.

In the same way people approach climate change with a similar relation. Now, which customer should we be like, the ones who asked the questions because he/she wanted to learn more about what was wrong with their computer? Or the ones who knew just as little about their computers, but would argue with those learned more, thus failing to learn while becoming angry over ignorance?
75. 7544
Yep largo looks like another gom blob forming to move east toward fla again more xtra rain again
Quoting HurriHistory:
It's September 21, 2014 (The last day of Summer) and THE TROPICS ARE DEAD!


Yeah, it's pretty remarkable that there's nothing going on right now.
The next 7-10 days are pretty much the end of the active part of the season.

That doesn't mean we won't see a system in October, but the odds of seeing a named system start to drop off pretty significantly.
From the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC):

"Is wintertime Antarctic sea ice increasing or decreasing?

Wintertime Antarctic sea ice is increasing at a small rate and with substantial natural year-to-year variability. Specifically, the months of May, June, July, September and October show trends of increasing sea ice extent that are just slightly above the mean year-to-year variability. In more technical terms, the trends are statistically significant at the 95% level, although small.

Climate model projections of Antarctic sea ice extent are in reasonable agreement with the observations to date. The dominant change in the climate pattern of Antarctica has been a gradual increase in the westerly circumpolar winds. Models suggest that both the loss of ozone (the ozone hole that occurs in September/October every year) and increases in greenhouse gases lead to an increase in this climate pattern.

When winds push on sea ice, they tend to move it in the direction they are blowing, but the Coriolis effect adds an apparent push to the left. In the unconfined system of Antarctic sea ice, this pushes the ice northward away from the continent. By spreading sea ice westward and a little northward (and since we measure extent with a 15% cut-off) the gradual trend towards faster mean winds means a gradual trend toward spreading of the ice cover.

Moreover, this trend towards stronger circumpolar winds appears to be causing the sea ice decline near the Antarctic Peninsula. In general the winds tend to dive slightly southward as they approach the Peninsula, an effect of the mountain ridges of the Andes and other circulation features in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea. A stronger wind from the northwest brings warmer conditions and therefore less ice to the region. Lastly, the El Nino and La Nina cycle also appear to influence sea ice in the Pacific sector. El Nino patterns (a warm eastern tropical Pacific) are associated with warmer winds and less ice; the opposite is true for La Nina.

Even if wintertime Antarctic sea ice were to increase or decrease significantly in the future, it would not have a huge impact on the climate system. This is because during the Antarctic winter energy from the sun is at its weakest point; its ability or inability to reflect the sun’s energy back into space has little effect on regulating the planet’s temperature."

76-Years ago today. Wow! What a storm! Make's Super-Cyclone Sandy look like a Gust Front.
Quoting 39. islander101010:

atm carlsbad caves new mexico being evacuated heavy flooding twc
O Man.. been down there, that would not be a fun situation! I imagined water pooring into the caverns themselves right? Well its the roads in the area being flooded.

Quoting 76. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, it's pretty remarkable for there to be nothing going on right now.
The next 7-10 days are pretty much the end of the active part of the season.

That doesn't mean we won't see a system in October, but the odds of seeing a named system start to drop off pretty significantly.


We've still got around a month left of the active part, there's a little peak around October 20th I think? Will be interesting to see how things pan out and if the Western Pacific will ramp up again. Also, the Indian Ocean should see some activity in the coming months. The main part of their season is normally October-December when the Monsoon has retreated.
Quoting 76. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, it's pretty remarkable that there's nothing going on right now.
The next 7-10 days are pretty much the end of the active part of the season.

That doesn't mean we won't see a system in October, but the odds of seeing a named system start to drop off pretty significantly.
That's true, but remember the Month of October has produced some of the most intense Hurricanes to ever strike the state of Florida. Hurricane King, a low-end cat.4 storm made a direct hit on Miami Beach on October 18, 1950 and produced wind gusts as high as 150-MPH. The state of Florida has been hit by more Hurricanes during the month of October then any other. So it's not over, till it's over!!!
Quoting 69. SLU:




Oh my ... this is like the 5th time the NHC busted on a wave near Africa this season? Like I said the last time, I think the 5-day TWO needs some more fine tuning in order for it to be more accurate. I don't think the computer models on which they rely very heavily are reading the situation in the far eastern Atlantic very well. That said, the 5-day TWO has been quite successful in the EPAC.

they will learn just like the rest of us
Wow, this is powerful stuff. Perhaps divine intervention is the best way to solve this problem.

Link
Quoting 68. opal92nwf:


Although I think we should be careful not to use a snarky tone, I am very open to and tend to believe the idea of it all being a hoax. Many people smell a rat here. We have no idea if all the peer reviewed stuff if slanted. And since "credible scientists" comprise the majority, any scientists outside of this (even if they are completely honest and correct) are shunned and labeled as renegade. The layperson has to take the "group of elite's" word for granted, and many of us simply don't trust it. It's impossible to find out for sure, but if they were all lying, it would be very hard to unravel since it's mixed partly with truth and hidden in scientific jargon the layperson can't pick apart. Regardless, the pro-human induced-climate change scientists have the general population in the palm of their hand whether they're lying or not.

That's my take on it at this point in time.


Skeptical Science goes above and beyond in trying to solve the issue of science communication to the general public with articles written at different levels of understanding (basic, intermediate, and advanced), and they link to the cited studies.

If you really think the problem is that there exists a scientific conspiracy there is no hope trying to show you otherwise, because the evidence to show you are incorrect would not ever be valid in your eyes as it comes from the very science you question. That's called tautology.

I am curious though why you would think this only happens in the almost 200 years of climate science and nowhere else? Should we be "skeptical" of ALL science, and assume the scientists may be lying, since it uses the same research methods and jargon specific to the discipline of study? The general layperson surely doesn't understand the scientific ins and outs of how antibiotics work and the differences between gram negative and gram positive bacterium, but still take them when they are sick and prescribed by an authority (doctor) in the field. So why do we ignore the authorities in the field of climate?
Quoting 72. Sfloridacat5:




I posted in the earlier blog that here in Fort Myers we're 14" below normal for the year.
We're also around 2" below normal for the month of Sept.

It's even worse than that here in my neighborhood. I've only picked up 2.57" for the month of Sept in my weather station. I should have over 6 at this time during a normal Sept.






Geeze, yeah back home in Tampa Bay, the year has been over 10 inches below normal as well so you aren't alone, but they at least have gotten a lot of rain for September so far, they got a little over 5 inches of rain this week, mainly on Wednesday and Friday, and 8.4 inches for September so far, but the other summer months were well below normal, with only 5.56 for August, 4.1 for July, and 2.3 for June.

The only reason drought isn't worse is that they had 4.6 in May and 4.8 in April, which is good for Spring months.

That sucks you haven't gotten in on much of the September rains yet, hopefully this upcoming week will be more forgiving.

We need something to stall out in the western Caribbean if anythings going to form there.
So far this season everything moves at a pretty good speed right into the Yucatan and then mainland Mexico.

Maybe with the fronts getting deeper into the GOM, we'll see some waves/lows stall out in the western Caribbean and have time to intensify. If shear is low and there's moisture to work with, the western Caribbean produces some monster storms.

Look at Mitch and Wilma and you can see how they both just drifted around in the western Caribbean for many days.



Hurricane Mitch

Hurricane Wilma


Also add that Wilma and Mitch were record breaker as far as intensification.
Quoting 83. Birkenstocks:

Wow, this is powerful stuff. Perhaps divine intervention is the best way to solve this problem.



don't worry there is divine intervention coming sorta speak
and to be honest
there is nothing nobody on the planet can do about it to stop it
This is also the 76th anniversary of the Great Hurricane of 1938, that struck New York with incredible speed and power..

From Wiki..

The storm was first analyzed by ship data south of the Cape Verde Islands on September 9. Over the next ten days, it steadily gathered strength and slowly tracked to the west-northwest. By September 20, while centered east of the Bahamas, the hurricane is estimated to have reached Category 5 intensity. In response to a deep trough over Appalachia, the hurricane veered northward, sparing the Bahamas, Florida, the Carolinas, and the Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a high pressure system was centered north of Bermuda, preventing the hurricane from making an eastward turn out to sea.[5] Thus, the hurricane was effectively squeezed to the north between the two weather systems.

Late on September 20, this set-up caused the storm's forward speed to increase substantially, ultimately reaching 70 mph, the highest forward velocity ever recorded in the annals of hurricanes. This extreme forward motion, being in the same general direction as the winds on the eastern side of the storm as it proceeded north, caused the perceived wind speed in areas east of the eye to be far higher than would be the case with a hurricane of more typical forward speed. (Winds rotate counter-clockwise around all low pressure systems in the Northern Hemisphere, thus winds on the right side of a hurricane, "right" being relative to the direction of motion of the storm itself, are moving in the same general direction as the hurricane. Therefore, the forward motion increases the observed wind speed for points to the right of the eye of the hurricane and decreases the observed wind speed for points to the left of the eye, but in a complex way that defies crude addition or subtraction of the forward motion from the "intrinsic" wind speed of the hurricane.) During the early hours of September 21, the storm, centered several hundred miles to the southeast of Cape Hatteras, weakened slightly. By 8:30 am EDT, the hurricane was centered approximately 100 miles (160 km) due east of Cape Hatteras, and its forward speed had increased to well over 50 mph. This rapid movement did not give the hurricane a sufficient amount of time to weaken over the cooler waters before it reached Long Island.[6] During the 9:00 am EDT hour, the hurricane sped through the Virginia tidewater. Between 12:00 pm and 2:00 pm EDT, the New Jersey coastline and New York City caught the western edge of the hurricane.[7] At the same time, weather conditions began to deteriorate rapidly on Long Island as well as along the southern New England coast. The hurricane made landfall at Bellport on Long Island's Suffolk County sometime between 2:10 pm and 2:40 pm EDT as a category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph.[8] The storm made a second landfall still as a category 3 hurricane somewhere between Bridgeport and New Haven, Connecticut around 4:00 pm with sustained winds of 115 mph.[8]

By 5:00 pm EDT, the eye moved into western Massachusetts, and by 6:00 pm EDT, the hurricane reached Vermont. Both Westfield, Massachusetts and Dorset, Vermont reported calm conditions and partial clearing during passage of the eye, which is a rather unusual occurrence for a New England hurricane.[9] As the hurricane continued into northern Vermont, it began to lose tropical characteristics. Still carrying hurricane-force winds, the storm crossed into Quebec at approximately 10:00 pm EDT, while transitioning into a post-tropical low. The post-tropical remnants dissipated over northern Ontario a few days later.
Forecasting the storm..

Here is the link....Link
pcola, opal, and help: why use polar ice as a proxy for global temps when we have the temperature record itself? A few record warm months so far this year and well over 300 CONSECUTIVE months of global temps above the 20th century average. If you dismiss this as being nothing more than a hoax of falsified data, please explain how the evil conspirators overlooked falsifying the sea ice data.
totals keep going up..

Of course I've been commenting on an old blog through the day. Dohh!



Clear, hot and humid! Some quick showers this morning. It's still "summer" here.
here is some data
ocean currents sst anomaly at surface




dark deep blue is ice
Quoting 90. ncstorm:

totals keep going up..


you right on the coast too huh
Quoting GatorWX:
Of course I've been commenting on an old blog through the day. Dohh!



Clear, hot and humid! Some quick showers this morning. It's still "summer" here.


The sun is out here too. Almost forgot what it looks like.

But the front is still stalled out right over our area. The westerly flow is pushing the storms inland away from the coast.

Our best chance of seeing storms near the westcoast will come in the morning with this flow off the GOM.

Quoting 93. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

you right on the coast too huh


yep.."The Port City"..

Quoting 71. PedleyCA:

Hey Taz, You get any hail yesterday....



nop but got some rain and lighting
Quoting 95. ncstorm:



yep.."The Port City"..


yer getting soaked
Quoting 39. islander101010:

atm carlsbad caves new mexico being evacuated heavy flooding twc

The National Park has been closed for three days. I believe the evacuations occurred Thursday. We picked up another 1.5'+ this morning in Carlsbad and have high chances for additional rain yet today and tonight. There are some areas that have received 15" in the last week (annual avg. is just under 13"). Lots of swift-water rescues and evacuations. Rains should taper off tomorrow, finally.
Quoting 97. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yer getting soaked


It's nice and sunny right now, actually a bit on the warm side. Accuweather calling for a breezy and rainy Wednesday/Thursday.
Quoting 41. CaneFreeCR:

I disagree that the difference is irrelevant. I maintain that the actual area of Antarctic sea ice is an important datum, lost within the specification of the extent of the ice being the amount of ocean containing at least 15% ice. As the winds increase due to warming they probably are redistributing the same amount of ice over a larger area. It is NOT necessarily an increase in the amount Antarctic sea ice. This is the detail that is lost in the positing of sea ice extent. There may actually be LESS Antarctic sea ice, it's just spread farther apart. I think this is a very important distinction, given the importance of Antarctic ice and its loss to the effect on and of climate change.

I probably should clarify... yes the difference matters, but to the insinuations most people are making when talking about antarctic sea ice records, it isn't very relevant. At least nowhere near as relevant as the geographic differences between the poles, which are likely a major contributing factor to the different trends in sea ice. And the fact that the southern ocean is warming. Both of those facts are more important to the current discussion than differences in how sea ice coverage is approximated.

The difference between "extent" and "area" would be far more relevant if it were found that antarctic sea ice trends were spurious and caused by issues estimated extent. I know of no evidence suggesting that to be the case.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Here's also some extreme wind footage from Hugo in Puerto Rico, this is scary stuff, the damage is extreme too, reminds me of Charley and Andrew:

I remember that day, ... wow... Hugo, George will be remember as the two most powerful hurricanes to hit Puerto Rico the last 35 years...of course Marilyn and Luis, caused lots of damages in the east side of the island, too..
It's not all that quiet. Could be more active off the SE coast again and the Gulf.

NAM takes the Eastcoast Low and it bombs out to 978 mb in the North Atlantic approaching Greenland.
Quoting 94. Sfloridacat5:



The sun is out here too. Almost forgot what it looks like.

But the front is still stalled out right over our area. The westerly flow is pushing the storms inland away from the coast.

Our best chance of seeing storms near the westcoast will come in the morning with this flow off the GOM.




Yes, been days since the sun's been out, seems. We had a nice downpour yesterday afternoon. Heaviest rain since the trough came into the picture. We really didn't get much here. ~.75" I'd estimate over last three or four days.

Quoting 101. ScottLincoln:


... And the fact that the southern ocean is warming....


If you say so?

stratosphere 10 hpa 26,500 m

south pole vortex


north pole vortex
3 day total
A few isolated areas of 5", but most areas saw much less than that.
Overall not a big rain event over the past 3 days over the southern part of the state.

Didn't see it posted, but the Dragon finally launched with RapidSCAT in the trunk. Looks like we're going to get something that doesn't have such a wide gap in coverage that it misses entire cyclones. That and SpaceX launches are always the most epic.

Quoting Levi32:


If you say so?


Nothing stands out here. Normal variation over the years.
Quoting 107. Levi32:



If you say so?






Do you think expanding sea ice extent and freshwater melt runoff causes the ocean surface to cool? Or do you think the ocean surface is cooling there despite increases in air temperature? Until the expansion of Antarctic Sea Ice, the southern ocean surface was warming faster than the rest of the oceans, below the surface, the warming trend has not stopped.

So while you can say that the southern ocean surface is no longer warming, you sure as heck are missing a boatload of context.
I take back my earlier comment (#44). I really don't think anyone thought we were going to have a Cat. 2 entering the Gulf in November 2009- an El Nino year.

Can't really write it off yet.
Quoting 107. Levi32:



If you say so?




Seems like a pretty known fact. I don't want to comment further.
Quoting 103. Grothar:

It's not all that quiet. Could be more active off the SE coast again and the Gulf.




Did you get your Citrus Glazed Hens yet? I'm a chef ya know.... :)
Re: #114- this was actually kind of alarming. I remember we were watching TV and they actually interrupted the program with a report of Ida entering the Gulf with it forecasted to make landfall near Pensacola as a hurricane.

Naga5000- it's great to have a civil discussion. I do listen and consider what you have to say.
Quoting 116. GatorWX:



Did you get your Citrus Glazed Hens yet? I'm a chef ya know.... :)


Grothar has a secret crush on the Barefoot Contessa.
That was a real "Is this really happening?" moment for us on the Gulf Coast.
Today
Quoting 110. CybrTeddy:

Didn't see it posted, but the Dragon finally launched with RapidSCAT in the trunk. Looks like we're going to get something that doesn't have such a wide gap in coverage that it misses entire cyclones. That and SpaceX launches are always the most epic.

Stayed up & took some pics from that. They were in the last blog.

Very clear conditions. The newer rocket configuration had a little different sound. One part of the sound came way early, wasn't too long or loud. The rest about the right timing, not super loud but good rumble, lasted a while.
Quoting 120. opal92nwf:

Wow, I forgot Rita happened in late September; for some reason I thought it was much earlier.


Not this September.

We're not even up to "F" yet in the Atlantic.

The next "R" is the next storm in the hyper-active Pacific: Rachel.
Quoting 46. LargoFl:




CMC, leave us kids alone!
98W in the West Pac is likely to strengthen into a typhoon, perhaps a super typhoon, over the next week, both the GFS and ECMWF aggressively develop it. It may be a threat to Japan down the road. And while it's long range, indications off those same two models are that another potentially strong storm will develop behind it in 8-10 days or so. The MJO will be heading out that way so we could see a significant burst of activity there for the next month or so.

Quoting 101. ScottLincoln:


I probably should clarify... yes the difference matters, but to the insinuations most people are making when talking about antarctic sea ice records, it isn't very relevant. At least nowhere near as relevant as the geographic differences between the poles, which are likely a major contributing factor to the different trends in sea ice. And the fact that the southern ocean is warming. Both of those facts are more important to the current discussion than differences in how sea ice coverage is approximated.

The difference between "extent" and "area" would be far more relevant if it were found that antarctic sea ice trends were spurious and caused by issues estimated extent. I know of no evidence suggesting that to be the case.
Lest anyone forget, there are other possible factors. Antarctica is a rather large continent that is moving. Since it is pretty much covered with some kind of deep ice, that makes the ground cold to greater depths than other places. Pressure builds up from deep within the movement and can fissure under the ice. Where is the most likely escape route for these under ice rivers? The glaciers. Satellites have already sighted major ancient river systems under the ice, as well as the already famous lakes. What happens in Iceland could very well be a connected chain reaction that we would not see in such a place where cameras are uncommon, and trekking is prohibited by governmental and environmental hindrances. Chain of fire y'all.
Quoting 118. GeoffreyWPB:



Grothar has a secret crush on the Barefoot Contessa.


That old movie with Ava Gardner?
Quoting 116. GatorWX:



Did you get your Citrus Glazed Hens yet? I'm a chef ya know.... :)


If you're a chef I would have expected you to write "glaçure agrumes" :):)
Getting kinda scary looking at some of these rainfall forecast on some of these models. The WRF models just for Monday & Tuesday is depicting over 5" of rain with some amounts of 8" in just the next 2 days and this pattern is locked in for atleast 2 weeks.

Quoting 109. Sfloridacat5:
3 day total
A few isolated areas of 5", but most areas saw much less than that.
Overall not a big rain event over the past 3 days over the southern part of the state.



Get ready.
Local NWS forecast offices here in Northern California are getting more hopeful about significant rain this week. The transPacific jet is strengthening, no doubt in part from energy pumped in by several tropical systems in the Western Pacific. A nice negative tilted trough is taking shape off the West Coast with the jet at mid latitude. The forecast models are wavering between two scenarios for later in the week. One of these would be very favorable for more rainfall, perhaps tapping into some of the moisture from Polo.
25 years ago, right about this time. My Mom and I were likely grabbing something to eat. I’d spent the previous day duct taping every window in the house…for whatever it was worth. I was about 17. Dad was at Town hall, or the fire station. Job responsibilities. At this point we could get ahold of him pretty easily. Winds were picking up, but it was no big deal. The night to come was a bit of a different story…but I never really was scared.

4-5 days earlier, as Hugo approached the Islands, I told my Dad…”It’s coming here”. During the coming days at school, I told classmates the same thing. Most everyone said I was crazy and it was going to go N or S. I’m not clairvoyant or anything else. Never had that feeling sense. Still don’t know whether it was blind luck, or something that I was just young enough to sense.

So Mom and I had dinner. Talked on the phone with Dad and sister in Washington. Watched the local TV broadcasts, etc. Became pretty clear that Hugo was going to pass right over us. As midnight approached, lost all TV and power. Phones were still up and could still talk to friends around the block, and sister in Washington. By this point, Dad was pretty swamped so Mom and I were holding the fort down. Was too long before midnight that we started to lose local radio stations. Power had been out for an hour or two at this point. Ended up picking a radio signal up on Dad’s shortwave radio. It was out of Jacksonville.

As midnight approached, I ventured in to the kitchen, which had a giant glass window, and put a candle in a muffin and lit it. Brought it to the hall way where Mom and I were hanging out…Then proceeded to wish her a Happy Birthday. I am terrible with birthdays, family and all. Won’t ever forget my Mom’s though. Sept 22nd.
Shortly after bringing her the birthday muffin; all fell silent. Mom and I ventured out the front door. A large pine draped in Wisteria was leaning on the power lines. Went out and looked up to see the stars. Truly something that can never be forgotten.

So we went back in and hunkered down. Being well versed by dad that the back side was coming and it wasn’t going to be a whole lot of fun. The sound of the wind and cracking pines really isn’t something that can be described in a way that will convey how eerie it was.

Mom and I made it through the night. Went out at first light, and found the pine that was on the power lines was now on the ground; but in the opposite direction. Laying across the driveway. Inches from the car. We were one of the lucky ones. No pines through the house. I roamed around the neighborhood taking pictures and checking on my friends.

The coming days were long…With recovery, volunteering at the local distribution center, learning to use a chainsaw, the generator sound constantly in the background…The amazing nights where you could see every star in the sky…Hugo brought a lot of havoc, and a lot of good to this area.

The areas N of Charleston were the hardest hit though. And a couple days after the storm, while working at the distribution center, I clearly remember Dad coming in and saying "Do not unload anymore trucks. They all need to be rerouted to McClellanville and Awendaw. Made me realize that there were far worse places to be then where I was.
the reason for the high rainfall amounts depicted in the WPC forecast:

THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF A WEAKNESS
ALOFT OVER THE SE/APLCHNS/MID ATLC WILL INFLUENCE THE NWD/INLAND
EXTENT OF RNFL... SOME LOCALLY HVY... EXPECTED NEAR THE SERN COAST
AND PSBLY INTO THE MID ATLC. LOW PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH A
WEAK/SMALL SCALE FEATURE ARGUES FOR LOW PREDICTABILITY AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. ALSO EXPECT MOIST ELY LOW LVL
FLOW TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RNFL OVER FL AND PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST. DEPENDING ON EXACT EVOLUTION ALOFT MSTR ALONG COASTAL
AREAS MAY TRY TO SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAUSCH/JAMES
good times...

...Significant weather advisory for southeastern inland Broward County...coastal Broward County...Metro Broward County...southeastern coastal Palm Beach County...southern Metro Palm Beach County and southeastern inland Palm Beach County...

* until 800 PM EDT

* at 658 PM EDT...Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near east Toll Gate on Alligator alley...or 10 miles northwest of Pembroke Pines...moving northeast at 20 mph.

The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches...and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm passes.

* The storm will affect... Fort Lauderdale...Pembroke Pines...Hollywood...Miramar...Coral Springs...Pompano Beach...Davie...Plantation...sunrise...Boca Raton...Deerfield Beach...Delray Beach...Tamarac...Margate... Lighthouse Point...Lauderdale-by-the-Sea...Highland Beach... Lauderhill...Weston and Coconut Creek.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

Torrential rainfall can be expected...causing temporary ponding on some roads and minor flooding of poor drainage areas. Motorists should slow down in heavy rainfall to reduce the risk of hydroplaning and leave a safe distance between other vehicles.
Quoting opal92nwf:
That was a real "Is this really happening" moment for us on the Gulf Coast.
Ida was a great strom for Alabama. It weakened before it made landfall and most of the wind damage was downed and up rooted trees. We go almost 8 inches of rain which we needed desperately after another summer of drought. There was the usual low lying area flooding and some roads being closed to high water. My high gust was 46 mph. I'd welcome another Ida type strom today with open arms. Ida was really the last tropical system to affect Alabama. Even with the CMC wanting to park another tropical storm on our coast for the last two years, nothing has happened. Five years is a long time for Alabama to go without even a brush.
I'll bet Dr Masters includes this if he posts tomorrow. I'm impressed by the attendance.

New York climate march draws hundreds of thousands

They estimate 310,000 showed up.
Quoting 130. BayFog:

Local NWS forecast offices here in Northern California are getting more hopeful about significant rain this week. The transPacific jet is strengthening, no doubt in part from energy pumped in by several tropical systems in the Western Pacific. A nice negative tilted trough is taking shape off the West Coast with the jet at mid latitude. The forecast models are wavering between two scenarios for later in the week. One of these would be very favorable for more rainfall, perhaps tapping into some of the moisture from Polo.


where can i read these?
Quoting 113. Naga5000:





Do you think expanding sea ice extent and freshwater melt runoff causes the ocean surface to cool? Or do you think the ocean surface is cooling there despite increases in air temperature? Until the expansion of Antarctic Sea Ice, the southern ocean surface was warming faster than the rest of the oceans, below the surface, the warming trend has not stopped.

So while you can say that the southern ocean surface is no longer warming, you sure as heck are missing a boatload of context.


I just don't like "facts" that aren't actually facts.
Quoting 137. StormTrackerScott:



Never said 30 troll


troll calling others troll. funny
Quoting 127. Grothar:



If you're a chef I would have expected you to write "glaçure agrumes" :):)


Let me re-phrase, I'm an American chef. :)

Poulet de Cornouailles avec le glaçage d'orange - ? I tried!
Quoting 136. sar2401:

Ida was a great strom for Alabama. It weakened before it made landfall and most of the wind damage was downed and up rooted trees. We go almost 8 inches of rain which we needed desperately after another summer of drought. There was the usual low lying area flooding and some roads being closed to high water. My high gust was 46 mph. I'd welcome another Ida type strom today with open arms. Ida was really the last tropical system to affect Alabama. Even with the CMC wanting to park another tropical storm on our coast for the last two years, nothing has happened. Five years is a long time for Alabama to go without even a brush.


How was Orange Beach after Ida? At least it was a November storm so tourism wasn't a factor in the costs.
Quoting 141. nwobilderburg:



troll calling others troll. funny


What does that make you? ....and me for that matter? Why can't people have an opinion? I just don't understand it. You don't have to listen or read for that matter. Thanks
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Getting kinda scary looking at some of these rainfall forecast on some of these models. The WRF models just for Monday & Tuesday is depicting over 5" of rain with some amounts of 8" in just the next 2 days and this pattern is locked in for atleast 2 weeks.

Scary> All the heavy rain is being shown offshore. Looks like Florida might get 2-3" on average for the next seven days. I'd take that in a heartbeat. Of course, the WPC almost always overpredicts rain, so dry areas of Florida are just hoping the WPC gets it right this time. Even the scary 2 day outlook shows 2 inches off shore and most of Florida getting maybe an inch.



None of the 1, 2, and 3 day outlooks from the WPC show Florida as being in an excessive rain area either.
Watch out for those shape shifting, reptilianoid, Illuminati worshiping rulers and hip hop artists. Ahhh!
Quoting 131. StormJunkie:





I hear about how bad Georgetown fared as well. Had Hugo came ashore closer to Edisto Island or even Beaufort the surge in Charleston Bay would have been really bad.
Quoting 146. sar2401:

Scary> All the heavy rain is being shown offshore. Looks like Florida might get 2-3" on average for the next seven days. I'd take that in a heartbeat. Of course, the WPC almost always overpredicts rain, so dry areas of Florida are just hoping the WPC gets it right this time. Even the scary 2 day outlook shows 2 inches off shore and most of Florida getting maybe an inch.



None of the 1, 2, and 3 day outlooks from the WPC show Florida as being in an excessive rain area either.


Yup, no flooding issues, no hysteria and no hype lol
I haven't seen a thunderstorm this violent in a long time. It's a good one.

Quoting 140. Levi32:



I just don't like "facts" that aren't actually facts.


I don't like facts without context. If you are going to dispute something, make sure you give the full picture. You cherry picked one part of Scott's argument but didn't address the rest. Does that mean you agree, disagree, or what? For someone so concerned about facts, I never see you calling out the ""facts" that aren't actually facts" of others who outright deny science on the blog.


Quoting 143. help4u:

A lot more socialist ,communist than 310 thousand low turnout for how many billions there are in the world.Millions of dollars came in from all over the communist ,socialist world to promote their anti -capitalist agenda.Billions spent in last 10 years and more of our tax dollars pouring in now.Obama has been most successful in the last 100 hundred to get almost all of his agenda.Open borders and everything he wanted will be accomplished.


We'll make sure you get your invitation next year. Don't be so sad.
without trying to be mischievous, the area near 10N 34W is the same area within the ITCZ/ monsoon trough, where FLORA spawned in 29th September 1963. The area of disturbed weather is the southern part of 95L which appears in an area that will become conducive the next 48hrs. something to watch as a matter of interest especially that 2014 has been a strange season.
Quoting 151. Naga5000:



I don't like facts without context. If you are going to dispute something, make sure you give the full picture. You cherry picked one part of Scott's argument but didn't address the rest. Does that mean you agree, disagree, or what? For someone so concerned about facts, I never see you calling out the ""facts" that aren't actually facts" of others who outright deny science on the blog.





The trend of near-Antarctic SST is rather central to any physical argument on the trend in Antarctic sea ice area, don't you think?
Quoting 154. Levi32:



The trend of near-Antarctic SST is rather central to the physical reasoning behind Antarctic sea ice area, don't you think?


Are you saying that lower SST are causing the expansion of sea ice? Are you sure it isn't the expansion of sea ice and fresh water melt runoff that have lowered surrounding SST?
156. SLU
Quoting 153. stoormfury:

without trying to be mischievous, the area near 10N 34W is the same area within the ITCZ/ monsoon trough, where FLORA spawned in 29th September 1963. The area of disturbed weather is the southern part of 95L which appears in an area that will become conducive the next 48hrs. something to watch as a matter of interest especially that 2014 has been a strange season.


It will be drifting slowly northward over the CATL before finally dissipating. The wave after it to emerge on Friday will be the last chance to see MDR development until August 2015 .....
Quoting 150. Grothar:

I haven't seen a thunderstorm this violent in a long time. It's a good one.

img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/
east/se/rb-l.jpg" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;">

The lightning is crazy here for over an hour!
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


How was Orange Beach after Ida? At least it was a November storm so tourism wasn't a factor in the costs.
The Gulf State Park Pier was damaged and there was some storm surge beach erosion, although the Pensacola area had worse beach damage. I don't think there were wind gusts much over 50 mph anywhere in Alabama. Louisiana had more wind than we did. By some weird quirk of orographics, Anniston, east of Birmingham, had the most rain and flooding. Given the fact that any hurricane or tropical storm is going to cause some damage somewhere, Ida was a pretty mild storm with a lot of beneficial rainfall.
Quoting 155. Naga5000:



Are you saying that lower SST are causing the expansion of sea ice? Are you sure it isn't the expansion of sea ice and fresh water melt runoff that have lowered surrounding SST?


Nobody knows for sure, but falsely claiming SSTs are warming despite increasing sea ice area would incorrectly rule out the former, wouldn't it.
Weather-wise, in SEFL we had a storm dump .21 into the 30" or bust rain gauge.
Lots of mild thunder and lightning.
Like a tail of the snake, on it's way out to sea.
Good thing it didn't happen an hour earlier or they'd have invoked the "lightning rule" at JRS delaying the Dolphins (lost)game.
Quoting 157. avthunder:


The lightning is crazy here for over an hour!


We haven't had one of those for a long time that lasted so long. Flooding down the end of our street.
Quoting 159. Levi32:



Nobody knows for sure, but falsely claiming SSTs are warming despite increasing sea ice area would incorrectly rule out the former, wouldn't it.
not really the sub water under the ice would have to be measured that region of the world lacks that info information so its really a crap shoot there
there is a signal but at summers peak we swing to the other side of the extreme with the melt off same thing happen last season as well in the south
peak extend
2013

2014


peak melt
2013

2014

feb/mar 2015 pending

by early November melt will begin in Antarctic normally reaches peak from now till 2nd week of oct
Quoting 161. Grothar:



We haven't had one of those for a long time that lasted so long. Flooding down the end of our street.
quasi stationary cell
Quoting 159. Levi32:



Nobody knows for sure, but falsely claiming SSTs are warming despite increasing sea ice area would incorrectly rule out the former, wouldn't it.
Here is a clear case of mis-understanding or mis-use of the difference between sea ice extent and actual sea ice area. It is possible that greater sea ice extent could cause a wider area of ocean surface to have a lower overall temperature without a greater sea ice area (meaning physical volume of actual ice, not square miles of ocean with at least 15% floating ice) but that cause/effect is not proven. And SSTs do not reflect the surface-to-bottom temperature profile, only what can be measured by satellite.
As "beauty is only in the eye of the beholder" can't we march for something we feel strongly about and have a lot of science to support it, those that don't believe can sit on the sidelines and make their own arguments and beliefs known too.
Quoting 159. Levi32:



Nobody knows for sure, but falsely claiming SSTs are warming despite increasing sea ice area would incorrectly rule out the former, wouldn't it.


I agree, Scott made a mistake in generalizing the southern ocean as a whole sort of. Some areas of the southern ocean are warming, while others are cooling. The areas cooling are seeing sea ice growth while the warming areas are seeing a lack of sea ice . It looks like the wind pattern may be the larger player here

My point was that yes the overall SST are down, the subsurface is still upward, and without discussing the other variables that are involved in such a complex entity like Antarctica and the surrounding ocean making the statement "if you say so?" followed by a graph say little to nothing about Scott's statement as a whole and what your statement actually means. You wants facts, fine, Scott made a mistake, but what does your addition to the conversation mean then?
Quoting 161. Grothar:



We haven't had one of those for a long time that lasted so long. Flooding down the end of our street.
Quoting 161. Grothar:



We haven't had one of those for a long time that lasted so long. Flooding down the end of our street.
Quoting 161. Grothar:



We haven't had one of those for a long time that lasted so long. Flooding down the end of our street.

Seems to finally be ending now. That was something.
Quoting 139. nwobilderburg:



where can i read these?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
250 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

... THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE PACNW
DOWN TO OUR REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TIMING AND BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO SF BAY REGION TO AROUND SANTA
CRUZ WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ONE ENCOURAGING SIGN IS
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT WETTER COMPARED TO SOLUTIONS FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS, SO POPS WERE INCREASED FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS NORTH
OF MONTEREY COUNTY. SOME INSTABILITY IS ALSO NOTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, SO AT THIS TIME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...

...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THURSDAY, A 120 KT JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD WHILE
THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS IS STILL TO OUR WEST. DUE TO THAT KEPT
SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER THAN QPF IS SUGGESTING IN CASE WE GET
SOME POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE EVEN
FRIDAY. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROF. SOME OF THEM
HAVE THE TROF ADVANCING TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WHILE OTHERS HAVE AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OUR CWA. IN THE CASE OF
THE SECOND SCENARIO, MOISTURE WOULD WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND
POSSIBLY MOVE BACK INTO OUR CWA BY SUNDAY.
animation of todays rain in my area 1.20 inches today with a little more now on the wind shift

Quoting 168. avthunder:


Seems to finally be ending now. That was something.


I'm hearing the thunder here in Extreme NE Dade. Seeing how far storms are from me, it must still be a doosey of a storm line.
173. jpsb
Quoting 111. yankees440:


Nothing stands out here. Normal variation over the years.



Allow me to assist you in helping to connect the dots




Notice the temperature dropping in the top image?
Notice the sea ice AREA increasing in the bottom image?
Think maybe there is a connection?

Greenland is 2.1 million sq km so there is almost an area (1.8M sq km) the size of Greenland with above normal sea ice.
Woah. I think it hailed for a few seconds here, probably pin sized hail. By the time I got outside it had ended and any hail was so small it melted.


some rapid firing storms coming in over the northern windwards
Quoting Grothar:
I haven't seen a thunderstorm this violent in a long time. It's a good one.



Pompano Beach and surrounding areas averaged over 1" in a little more than an hour.

Link
A brief, unwarned, tornado occurred in SE MI early this morning. At 5:57am, a tornado touched town in Rochester Hills, MI and lifted 2 minutes later 1.25 miles to the west. The tornado caused roof damage to several homes and downed numerous trees. It was rated an EF-1 with 90MPH max winds. There were no casualties associated with the tornado. Dual-pol showed a debris signature occurring with a decent velocity signature. I know it was very short-lived, but not sure why a tornado warning wasn't issued after it was pretty clear one had occurred based on dual-pol.

Write-up from NWS Detroit

Radar image at 1000z:
At least it's not me vs. Levi for a change...


Yep... gonna be an interesting night!
just had a walk outside temps falling now nnw flow
70 at 730pm now 56.8 at 9 pm

forecast low is 45 tonight

n wind 30 gust to 50 kmh feel like 35
Quoting 179. Dragod66:



Yep... gonna be an interesting night!
coastal bomber
Wreckhouse wind warning in effect for:
%u2022Channel-Port aux Basques and vicinity

Very strong wind gusts are expected or occurring

Strong southeasterly winds gusting to 110 km/h are expected to develop tonight as an intense low pressure system tracks west of Newfoundland. Winds gusts are forecast to increase to 140 km/h Monday morning before diminishing Monday afternoon when the winds shift southwesterly.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions due to high winds. Very strong winds may push your vehicle around especially on roads through mountain passes and along deep valleys.

Wreckhouse Wind Warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Stay up to date with Weatheradio or your local media. Email reports of severe weather to weatherNLWO@ec.gc.ca or call 1-877-815-9900. You may tweet reports using the hashtag #NLwx.




Quoting 182. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Wreckhouse wind warning in effect for:
%u2022Channel-Port aux Basques and vicinity

Very strong wind gusts are expected or occurring

Strong southeasterly winds gusting to 110 km/h are expected to develop tonight as an intense low pressure system tracks west of Newfoundland. Winds gusts are forecast to increase to 140 km/h Monday morning before diminishing Monday afternoon when the winds shift southwesterly.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions due to high winds. Very strong winds may push your vehicle around especially on roads through mountain passes and along deep valleys.

Wreckhouse Wind Warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Stay up to date with Weatheradio or your local media. Email reports of severe weather to weatherNLWO@ec.gc.ca or call 1-877-815-9900. You may tweet reports using the hashtag #NLwx.







That Autumn pattern beginning now here in NS
Quoting 176. yankees440:



Pompano Beach and surrounding areas averaged over 1" in a little more than an hour.

Link


The Grothar Gauge isn't official, but we got just over 2"
Quoting Grothar:


The Grothar Gauge isn't official, but we got just over 2"


Sounds about right... You must be located near West Boca or so.. Right?
Quoting 179. Dragod66:



Yep... gonna be an interesting night!


Nice image drag.




Quoting 69. SLU:




Oh my ... this is like the 5th time the NHC busted on a wave near Africa this season? Like I said the last time, I think the 5-day TWO needs some more fine tuning in order for it to be more accurate. I don't think the computer models on which they rely very heavily are reading the situation in the far eastern Atlantic very well.


From my recollection, it never got above a 30% chance of development, either for the 48 window or the 5 day window. That means it's always been at least a 70% chance of not developing. The word "bust" really doesn't work for a situation like this.
With all these storms forming so far north, it's as if the earth is warming or something.

Quoting 183. Dragod66:



That Autumn pattern beginning now here in NS

10 m wind gusts in kmh


its beginning next month or so should show the pattern for coming winter
Quoting 169. BayFog:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
250 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

... THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE PACNW
DOWN TO OUR REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE TIMING AND BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO SF BAY REGION TO AROUND SANTA
CRUZ WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ONE ENCOURAGING SIGN IS
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT WETTER COMPARED TO SOLUTIONS FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS, SO POPS WERE INCREASED FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS NORTH
OF MONTEREY COUNTY. SOME INSTABILITY IS ALSO NOTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, SO AT THIS TIME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...

...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THURSDAY, A 120 KT JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD WHILE
THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS IS STILL TO OUR WEST. DUE TO THAT KEPT
SHOWERS GOING A BIT LONGER THAN QPF IS SUGGESTING IN CASE WE GET
SOME POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE EVEN
FRIDAY. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL WILL BE FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROF. SOME OF THEM
HAVE THE TROF ADVANCING TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WHILE OTHERS HAVE AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OUR CWA. IN THE CASE OF
THE SECOND SCENARIO, MOISTURE WOULD WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND
POSSIBLY MOVE BACK INTO OUR CWA BY SUNDAY.


thanks. you always have something interesting to say about California's weather
Quoting 188. Grothar:

With all these storms forming so far north, it's as if the earth is warming or something.


naw its just a figment of our imagination
Quoting 185. yankees440:



Sounds about right... You must be located near West Boca or so.. Right?


Fort Lauderdale on the Intracoastal.
Quoting 171. ElConando:



I'm hearing the thunder here in Extreme NE Dade. Seeing how far storms are from me, it must still be a doosey of a storm line.


How are you doing El Coño? Are you done with school in Tallahassee now? I hope you are enjoying the South Florida thunderstorms now...

I hope when I go back to South Florida next month I don't need a boat to get to my house. As it is I might have to ski to the airport here.
Quoting 192. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

naw its just a figment of our imagination

move along...nothing to see here...
Link
Quoting 177. wxchaser97:

A brief, unwarned, tornado occurred in SE MI early this morning. At 5:57am, a tornado touched town in Rochester Hills, MI and lifted 2 minutes later 1.25 miles to the west. The tornado caused roof damage to several homes and downed numerous trees. It was rated an EF-1 with 90MPH max winds. There were no casualties associated with the tornado. Dual-pol showed a debris signature occurring with a decent velocity signature. I know it was very short-lived, but not sure why a tornado warning wasn't issued after it was pretty clear one had occurred based on dual-pol.

Write-up from NWS Detroit

Radar image at 1000z:



Southeast Michigan has a rough year, crazy stuff.

That is weird the tornado warning wasn't issued. There are cases where tornadoes develop between scans, or they are out of radar range.

It can happen to anyone though, as a student who has only volunteered at the NWS, I am not qualified to say how the NWS will deal with cases like this. But I can say that they thoroughly investigate missed cases. The NWS does take these things seriously and will carefully examine what might have happened, that I do know.

Quoting 184. Grothar:



The Grothar Gauge isn't official, but we got just over 2"


Glad to see you finally got 2" Gro...
Quoting 186. Grothar:



Nice image drag.







yeah Environment Canada has really good IR satellite images. they update every 30 mins offset 15 mins from the NWS images. So you get a fresh IR every 15 mins. It's great!
Quoting 107. Levi32:



If you say so?



I don't say so. Those that study Antarctic sea ice do.
A couple to get you started:
Zhang (2006)
Bintanja et al (2013)

Also, did you happen to look on a map to see the area that you were plotting before making that plot? It appears that you chose 60S to 90S. The majority of that area is the continent of Antarctica and very little of that is ocean. By choosing that region, you are making the claim that a very small area of ocean will show the changes over the entire southern ocean. I'm not sure if you chose this on purpose but it isn't the right domain to show what you want to show.

If you would look at more of the southern ocean, you'd see a different answer entirely.

Temporary graphic.
Quoting 113. Naga5000:





Do you think expanding sea ice extent and freshwater melt runoff causes the ocean surface to cool? Or do you think the ocean surface is cooling there despite increases in air temperature? Until the expansion of Antarctic Sea Ice, the southern ocean surface was warming faster than the rest of the oceans, below the surface, the warming trend has not stopped.

So while you can say that the southern ocean surface is no longer warming, you sure as heck are missing a boatload of context.

That might be true, but the bigger issue is that his plot is horribly misleading... it's only showing a small fraction of the southern ocean. The fraction that's right up to the coast of Antarctica.
Quoting 140. Levi32:



I just don't like "facts" that aren't actually facts.

An interesting sentiment considering what you tried to use to argue with the point I made.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EDT Sunday 21 September 2014
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:29.7 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:55.6°F
Dewpoint:51.3°F
Humidity:85%
Wind:NNW 21 gust 29 mph
Quoting 64. PensacolaDoug:



Less ice you guys scream AWG more ice you guys scream AGW. The Antarctic setting all time records wasn't predicted by any of the models. How can any reasonable person take you seriously?


Are you suggesting that sea ice is the primary method for determining whether or not AGW is occurring. It's not. AGW doesn't stand or fall based on sea ice, not even close. The evidence for AGW is overwhelming independent of sea ice observations. So why would the claim of AGW change based on antarctic sea ice observations, if the claim isn't founded on that?

See a comment by Naga5000 for a 1991 paper that predicted an increase in antarctic sea ice extent.
latest as of 0115 utc

Nice weather there Keeper. Dipping into the low 30's now here...
Dreamy...

Quoting 204. Dakster:

Nice weather there Keeper. Dipping into the low 30's now here...
you are under a interior flow cooler it will switch up later in the week to an maritime flow bringing in milder temps

Quoting 166. Naga5000:



I agree, Scott made a mistake in generalizing the southern ocean as a whole sort of. Some areas of the southern ocean are warming, while others are cooling. The areas cooling are seeing sea ice growth while the warming areas are seeing a lack of sea ice . It looks like the wind pattern may be the larger player here

My point was that yes the overall SST are down, the subsurface is still upward, and without discussing the other variables that are involved in such a complex entity like Antarctica and the surrounding ocean making the statement "if you say so?" followed by a graph say little to nothing about Scott's statement as a whole and what your statement actually means. You wants facts, fine, Scott made a mistake, but what does your addition to the conversation mean then?

I really don't think I made a mistake at all. I said that the southern ocean is warming while we are seeing this small increase in Antarctic sea ice extent. The southern ocean is warming.

I didn't say the small area of the southern ocean, right at the oceans surface, right up to Antarctica, I said the southern ocean. The areas adjacent to Antarctica should show up as somewhat cooler in the data because of the increase in ice. But areas adjacent to where the ice extent reaches each year are warming, and warming much more than the cooling trend closer to land. The ice reaches beyond the Antarctic Circle (and nears 60S) in many areas each year - that's beyond almost the entire area shown in Levi's plot.

So picking a plot of just a portion of the southern ocean, surface waters only, only parts of the southern ocean that are near the continent, is misleading. Hence why I didn't choose that area.
Quoting 184. Grothar:



The Grothar Gauge isn't official, but we got just over 2"


But radar sure isn't either, radar sites in FL tend to significantly underestimate storm totals except for less often in the dry season, unless you have access to the dual pole products, which are much more accurate.

What kind of gauge do you have? It doesn't have to be official to be an accurate gauge, there are products that are certifiably professional and that are just as good as the official reporting gauges.

But Melbourne, Tampa, Miami and Tallahassee storm total products are frequently less than official gauge totals.

One way to look for this is to look up official gauges and where they are located, then find those locations on radar and see how radar estimations line up with actual totals of the gauges at those estimation points.

This estimation is most off when there is deep tropical airmasses present, so the totals are often more off in the summer rainy season than with winter coldfronts. Although sometimes deep tropical airmasses can occur with cold fronts in the winter too especially during El Nino years.


Radar estimates up north tend to overestimate when you have a very cold airmass aloft with lower moisture but a lot of instability to still generate strong thunderstorms. This is because ice produces stronger reflectivity on radar than liquid water. Therefore warm process convection has limited ice and often smaller rain drops in the region where radar beams reach, but in cold process convection with drier airmasses, convection has much more ice and overall less water content. The rainfall rates then are artificially high.

This is not always true up north though as deep tropical airmasses can invade the far north too especially with tropical cyclone remnants. Therefore radar can underestimate up north too sometimes during the summer. It did during the Detroit and Islip rain events for example. Radar estimates were lower in both cases. And it makes sense, as the airmasses were very warm with depth and had 2.00 inch PW, just like a tropical environment.

I know sometimes my posts are a mouthful, but I like to full explanations, which I'm sure you've noticed, lol.
Ahh... Thanks Keep... Most of the weather maps posted leave AK out of it.
Quoting 207. ScottLincoln:


I really don't think I made a mistake at all. I said that the southern ocean is warming while we are seeing this small increase in Antarctic sea ice extent. The southern ocean is warming.

I didn't say the small area of the southern ocean, right at the oceans surface, right up to Antarctica, I said the southern ocean. The areas adjacent to Antarctica should show up as somewhat cooler in the data because of the increase in ice. But areas adjacent to where the ice extent reaches each year are warming, and warming much more than the cooling trend closer to land. The ice reaches beyond the Antarctic Circle in many areas each year - that's beyond the area shown in Levi's plot.

So picking a plot of just a portion of the southern ocean, surface waters only, only parts of the southern ocean that are near the continent, is misleading. Hence why I didn't choose that area.


The Pig is going to flood many lowlands:
Link
Quoting 203. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

latest as of 0115 utc




Thanks for the update, Keeper. We've been having light rain on and off since 4 pm here in Yarmouth; the heavier rain was farther east according to radar. But the rain is picking up and it looks like it's going to be a loud and wet night.
Quoting 207. ScottLincoln:


I really don't think I made a mistake at all. I said that the southern ocean is warming while we are seeing this small increase in Antarctic sea ice extent. The southern ocean is warming.

I didn't say the small area of the southern ocean, right at the oceans surface, right up to Antarctica, I said the southern ocean. The areas adjacent to Antarctica should show up as somewhat cooler in the data because of the increase in ice. But areas adjacent to where the ice extent reaches each year are warming, and warming much more than the cooling trend closer to land. The ice reaches beyond the Antarctic Circle (and nears 60S) in many areas each year - that's beyond almost the entire area shown in Levi's plot.

So picking a plot of just a portion of the southern ocean, surface waters only, only parts of the southern ocean that are near the continent, is misleading. Hence why I didn't choose that area.


Fair enough, I certainly wasn't trying to throw you under the bus, and I think we essentially argued the same point from different approaches. Southern ocean is not just SST nor is it only from 60S to 90S.

I stand corrected, and thanks for clarification.
Quoting 146. sar2401:

Scary> All the heavy rain is being shown offshore. Looks like Florida might get 2-3" on average for the next seven days. I'd take that in a heartbeat. Of course, the WPC almost always overpredicts rain, so dry areas of Florida are just hoping the WPC gets it right this time. Even the scary 2 day outlook shows 2 inches off shore and most of Florida getting maybe an inch.



None of the 1, 2, and 3 day outlooks from the WPC show Florida as being in an excessive rain area either.


Well the thing is that an average is just that, an average. Over the course of the whole week, its difficult to do averages. Some places will probably get 7-8 inches this week, others may only get 0.50-1.00 inch. That's just how it works with convection, and that's why I feel bullseye's are somewhat misleading when it comes to convective rains.

I prefer to use probabilistic rain chance terms, and words like "good chance of heavy rain for most areas" rather than QPF bullseyes from a week cumulative. I can say that model agreement supports that there is a good chance for widespread rain, some being locally very heavy during this upcoming week. However, as I said earlier in the blog, this nothing strange for Florida, and simply should not be hyped. There will probably localized flooding were storms train locally in poor drainage areas, and some rivers may go a bit above flood stage, but that is completely normal. In fact, there has been a lack of frequency of weeks with this potential this summer. Given that, this is far from being scary rainfall, rather its beneficial "Its about time, we need this" rainfall.
Like you said, its shouldn't be hyped as something rare and destructive. Because unless the forecast guidance is wrong, it won't be anything scary by any means.
Quoting 205. CaribBoy:

Dreamy...


Drool!
Quoting 208. Jedkins01:



But radar sure isn't either, radar sites in FL tend to significantly underestimate storm totals except for less often in the dry season, unless you have access to the dual pole products, which are much more accurate.

What kind of gauge do you have? It doesn't have to be official to be an accurate gauge, there are products that are certifiably professional and that are just as good as the official reporting gauges.

But Melbourne, Tampa, Miami and Tallahassee storm total products are frequently less than official gauge totals.

One way to look for this is to look up official gauges and where they are located, then find those locations on radar and see how radar estimations line up with actual totals of the gauges at those estimation points.

This estimation is most off when there is deep tropical airmasses present, so the totals are often more off in the summer rainy season than with winter coldfronts. Although sometimes deep tropical airmasses can occur with cold fronts in the winter too especially during El Nino years.


Radar estimates up north tend to overestimate when you have a very cold airmass aloft with lower moisture but a lot of instability to still generate strong thunderstorms. This is because ice produces stronger reflectivity on radar than liquid water. Therefore warm process convection has limited ice and often smaller rain drops in the region where radar beams reach, but in cold process convection with drier airmasses, convection has much more ice and overall less water content. The rainfall rates then are artificially high.

This is not always true up north though as deep tropical airmasses can invade the far north too especially with tropical cyclone remnants. Therefore radar can underestimate up north too sometimes during the summer. It did during the Detroit and Islip rain events for example. Radar estimates were lower in both cases. And it makes sense, as the airmasses were very warm with depth and had 2.00 inch PW, just like a tropical environment, and it was.




I usually stick my finger in the pool and see how far up the water rose.

No, seriously. We have a Stratus. I don't know the model. A friend of mine gave it to us a few years ago.

As you probably remember, I was born on Long Island and much of my family still lives there. I had never heard of 13" of rain there, ever. No one had ever seen anything like it. The North Shore of Long Island is very high and very hilly, with deep ravines and many low lying places. Long Island at that point is more than 30 miles wide. Flooding is a rare event like that what happened recently. The most I can ever remember was 7" and a good part of the island had terrible flooding. There really is no runoff in most of the island, especially in the center hill regions where I was from.

We are going back the end of this week for my high school reunion. I went to school in Europe, but graduated from an American high school. I can't wait to see how much better I look than the others. :)
Quoting CaribBoy:
Dreamy...



Up up and away!

Quoting 205. CaribBoy:

Dreamy...


Yeah, me and the Crypt Keeper been watching it. Honestly, I cant tell if French Guadalupe or Antigua is on track. I think both will get rain though.
Good Evening everyone. I see the GFS wants to spin something up in 7 days west of the Cape Verde's. It's been fairly consistent in showing a storm in the long range and has pushed up the time frame for development, something to keep an eye on in the coming days. Next name on the list is Fay and the last Fay did figure 8's over FL. and caused widespread flooding throughout the state.

Quoting Jedkins01:


But radar sure isn't either, radar sites in FL tend to significantly underestimate storm totals except for less often in the dry season, unless you have access to the dual pole products, which are much more accurate.

What kind of gauge do you have? It doesn't have to be official to be an accurate gauge, there are products that are certifiably professional and that are just as good as the official reporting gauges.

But Melbourne, Tampa, Miami and Tallahassee storm total products are frequently less than official gauge totals.

One way to look for this is to look up official gauges and where they are located, then find those locations on radar and see how radar estimations line up with actual totals of the gauges at those estimation points.

This estimation is most off when there is deep tropical airmasses present, so the totals are often more off in the summer rainy season than with winter coldfronts. Although sometimes deep tropical airmasses can occur with cold fronts in the winter too especially during El Nino years.


Radar estimates up north tend to overestimate when you have a very cold airmass aloft with lower moisture but a lot of instability to still generate strong thunderstorms. This is because ice produces stronger reflectivity on radar than liquid water. Therefore warm process convection has limited ice and often smaller rain drops in the region where radar beams reach, but in cold process convection with drier airmasses, convection has much more ice and overall less water content. The rainfall rates then are artificially high.

This is not always true up north though as deep tropical airmasses can invade the far north too especially with tropical cyclone remnants. Therefore radar can underestimate up north too sometimes during the summer. It did during the Detroit and Islip rain events for example. Radar estimates were lower in both cases. And it makes sense, as the airmasses were very warm with depth and had 2.00 inch PW, just like a tropical environment.

I know sometimes my posts are a mouthful, but I like to full explanations, which I'm sure you've noticed, lol.


Interesting as radar estimates showed only up to 1.5" or less near Grothers home.. Good to know though!
Quoting 209. Dakster:

Ahh... Thanks Keep... Most of the weather maps posted leave AK out of it.



Hi Dakster, maybe you already said something about it (but home very late from work, so don't have time to go back and read numerous pages to see) , but am curious about your new profile photo. Is it that you can see the constellations much better in Alaska than before?! Myself, coming from So. Calif to N. Wales, I still find the night sky mesmorizing! So wondering if something similar? On any account, enjoy reading about your great change of abode and all the changes that means! Kinda cool many know things that help, some I've read I'd not have thought of
Quoting 221. mitthbevnuruodo:




Hi Dakster, maybe you already said something about it (but home very late from work, so don't have time to go back and read numerous pages to see) , but am curious about your new profile photo. Is it that you can see the constellations much better in Alaska than before?! Myself, coming from So. Calif to N. Wales, I still find the night sky mesmorizing! So wondering if something similar? On any account, enjoy reading about your great change of abode and all the changes that means! Kinda cool many know things that help, some I've read I'd not have thought of


Avatar is the Alaska State Flag.

Happy to share them, it is definitely a change and as a family we are very excited for it too. I think it is going to be a good change of pace for us too.

The weather changes are interesting as well. Dealing with cold, snow, ice, and straight line hurricane force winds... I will be able to tell if the 80-100mph gusts are as bad as a Cat 1/2 Hurricanes or is it different? And how is it different. Seeing snow and walking on a glacier. Never would have thought I would be doing that, growing up in Miami.

I also enjoy reading about your area of the world too. There is so much to learn and explore on this planet we call our home.
Another one of these GFS illusions. Nothing to see here folks
Quoting Drakoen:
Another one of these GFS illusions. Nothing to see here folks

Yup, to 2016 we look!
Quoting 223. Drakoen:

Another one of these GFS illusions. Nothing to see here folks

Hurrah for optimism.
Quoting 225. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hurrah for optimism.


Sorry that the weather won't cooperate with you and give you something good to track...
What's your high today Daxster? I got up to 83.0, fourth day in the 80's for here.
Quoting 222. Dakster:



Avatar is the Alaska State Flag.

Happy to share them, it is definitely a change and as a family we are very excited for it too. I think it is going to be a good change of pace for us too.

The weather changes are interesting as well. Dealing with cold, snow, ice, and straight line hurricane force winds... I will be able to tell if the 80-100mph gusts are as bad as a Cat 1/2 Hurricanes or is it different? And how is it different. Seeing snow and walking on a glacier. Never would have thought I would be doing that, growing up in Miami.

I also enjoy reading about your area of the world too. There is so much to learn and explore on this planet we call our home.


Oh of course ha! Been so long since i'd seen it I totally forgot!

One of the things I do really like here, that people here just don't realise...is the change of pace :)

Yes, we get similar kinds of storms here too. Don't get the thunderstorms or hurricanes, but those intense arctic storms can surely seem totally wild for sure

I think you have a bit more of an extreme than here (ok, know more than think LOL) but definitely understand. Palm Springs had snow commonly in the region at least, and always up the tram in winter anyway LOL

I think Alaska would have been my style if it weren't for possible earthquakes :P I often think Norway has a climate I would like, without the earthqauke problem LOL

Alaskan winter though, do look forward to your experience from a sub-tropical climate! As def more than mine even. All the best!
Quoting 227. PedleyCA:

What's your high today Daxster? I got up to 83.0, fourth day in the 80's for here.


55F was the high... Should be low to mid 30s tonight. Difficult to tell since where I am at seems to be colder than what is forecast. I might wake up to frost on the ground and vehicles like we did a couple of weeks ago when the temps hit the 30s. (forecast was 40s then)

MitthB. - Funny you mention Norway - I like that country. Not enough to become an expat. but I found it a interesting place to live. No earthquakes where I live. I may feel them, but there is a reason I am half-way up the mountain and not in Anchorage itself. Also don't want to have to deal with leaving because of a Tsunami... Even without a Tsunami it is AMAZING how fast and far the tide rolls in and out here... IIRC, 30' is the common average... Can you imagine South Florida with a 30' tidal spread...
Quoting 224. yankees440:


Yup, to 2016 we look!


2016?
Quoting 225. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hurrah for optimism.


aint nobody got time fo dat, fool
Quoting 220. yankees440:



Interesting as radar estimates showed only up to 1.5" or less near Grothers home.. Good to know though!


Yep! A few days back radar showed literally only a half inch over Miami international Airport, but they had over 1.25

A similar thing happened the other night in Central Florida, in the Tampa Bay area, rain gauges were in the 1-3 inch range while the radar estimate only came out to 0.5 to 1.5 in these rain gauge locations.

A gauge in Polk County had 3.57 the radar showed only 1.5 over that location. Radar estimates were around twice as less than real totals from gauges at radar estimate locations.
Quoting KoritheMan:


2016?


I don't think 2015 will be a busy season, since we will likely be in some kind of el-nino phase. Hoping by summer 2016, we would be out of it by then.
Quoting 233. yankees440:



I don't think 2015 will be a busy season, since we will likely be in some kind of el-nino phase. Hoping by summer 2016, we would be out of it by then.


Anyone who seriously thinks we can predict next year's ENSO during the preceding year probably needs to take their meds.
Quoting 229. Dakster:



55F was the high... Should be low to mid 30s tonight. Difficult to tell since where I am at seems to be colder than what is forecast. I might wake up to frost on the ground and vehicles like we did a couple of weeks ago when the temps hit the 30s. (forecast was 40s then)

MitthB. - Funny you mention Norway - I like that country. Not enough to become an expat. but I found it a interesting place to live. No earthquakes where I live. I may feel them, but there is a reason I am half-way up the mountain and not in Anchorage itself. Also don't want to have to deal with leaving because of a Tsunami... Even without a Tsunami it is AMAZING how fast and far the tide rolls in and out here... IIRC, 30' is the common average... Can you imagine South Florida with a 30' tidal spread...


Oh yes, tidal spread...would have to look what it is here, but it really freaked me out at first compared to Calif LOL When I moved to Blackpool, low tide was like a mile out...but high tide was most the way up the promenade wall, which was very elevated...creeped me out really as wasn't like that back home! haha, 30' is a hurricane storm surge in Fl!

Norway would definitely be good for my photography :P Not that here isn't, but northern lights and even more night for astrophotos..if the language wasn't such a barrier, am not linguistic at all though boohoo

I always remember the ad they showed at elementary school on 'movie Friday' about tsunami...has forever made me want to not want a seafront home...sea view in the distance is much better!
Quoting 199. ScottLincoln:


I don't say so. Those that study Antarctic sea ice do.
A couple to get you started:
Zhang (2006)
Bintanja et al (2013)

Also, did you happen to look on a map to see the area that you were plotting before making that plot? It appears that you chose 60S to 90S. The majority of that area is the continent of Antarctica and very little of that is ocean. By choosing that region, you are making the claim that a very small area of ocean will show the changes over the entire southern ocean. I'm not sure if you chose this on purpose but it isn't the right domain to show what you want to show.

If you would look at more of the southern ocean, you'd see a different answer entirely.

Temporary graphic.


The Southern Ocean by definition is the ocean water found south of the 60S parallel.

The SST dataset will exclude land areas, which yes leaves little during the peak ice season, but much water is there in the melt season.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Anyone who seriously thinks we can predict next year's ENSO during the preceding year probably needs to take their meds.


Quoting KoritheMan:


Anyone who seriously thinks we can predict next year's ENSO during the preceding year probably needs to take their meds.


I said "Some type of el-nino phase",so that would give me about a 33.3333% chance of being correct.
Quoting 236. Levi32:



The Southern Ocean by definition is the ocean water found south of the 60S parallel.

The SST dataset will exclude land areas, which yes leaves little during the peak ice season, but much water is there in the melt season.


Is that a "fact"?

"The Southern Ocean, which is the region south of 30S, connects the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans together, allowing inter-ocean exchange. This region is active in the formation and subduction of waters that contributed strongly to the storage of anthropogenic carbon and heat (see Section 5.2). It is also the location of the densest part of the global overturning circulation, through formation of bottom waters around Antarctica, fed by deep waters from all of the oceans to the north. Note that some observed changes found in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans are related to changes in the Southern Ocean waters but have largely been described in those sections. " - (IPCC report 2007) Link
239. jpsb
Quoting 238. Naga5000:



Is that a "fact"?

"The Southern Ocean, which is the region south of 30°S, connects the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans together, allowing inter-ocean exchange. This region is active in the formation and subduction of waters that contributed strongly to the storage of anthropogenic carbon and heat (see Section 5.2). It is also the location of the densest part of the global overturning circulation, through formation of bottom waters around Antarctica, fed by deep waters from all of the oceans to the north. Note that some observed changes found in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans are related to changes in the Southern Ocean waters but have largely been described in those sections. " - IPCC report 2007)


From NOAA
"The Southern Ocean is the 'newest' named ocean. It is recognized by the U.S. Board on Geographic Names as the body of water extending from the coast of Antarctica to the line of latitude at 60 degrees South. "


http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/howmanyoceans. html
Quoting 239. jpsb:



From NOAA
"The Southern Ocean is the 'newest' named ocean. It is recognized by the U.S. Board on Geographic Names as the body of water extending from the coast of Antarctica to the line of latitude at 60 degrees South. "


http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/howmanyoceans. html


The real answer is that each organization is allowed to define their own geographic boundary for the ocean, internationally, hence the IPCC definition (along with the WMO's acceptance of 30S) Link, and in the majority of research literature it is defined as 30 S.

Blog "word of the day"

Obfuscation
Quoting 241. SunnyDaysFla:

Blog "word of the day"

Obfuscation


Darn it. You made shoot soup out my nose.

Mithb - Keep up the photography and there is something to said for going to the beach and then driving up a mountain to go home. I am not great an languages either.
Quoting Levi32:


The Southern Ocean by definition is the ocean water found south of the 60S parallel.

The SST dataset will exclude land areas, which yes leaves little during the peak ice season, but much water is there in the melt season.


That 60' mark is still pending IHO's 4th edition and has yet to be published due to "area's of concern". Only half the votes were cast for the 60' line (no land interruptions) while the other half our in the 50' range to ,even a few for 35'
Blue water sailors general use the Southern border of Australia and New Zealand. Having made the passage a few times The Roaring Forties/Fearsome Fifties (and there like no other Ocean I've ever been in) are pretty well established as Southern Ocean routes. The 60' for the most part are way to dangerous to be sailing in, but I can see why scientist would us 60' though.
Good news bad news. NAM and GFS are bone dry with frontal passage in HOU Metro, a few showers South, and then dry forever, or at least two weeks.

Sort of good news, 80s, and maybe not hitting 90ºF again at Fall weather arrives in time for Fall. Mild, not too hot, not to cold. Bit too dry.

No sign of Fay really this month. GFS has a decent wave on the 30th, but it isn't closed, and GFS tends optimistic anyway.

I wanted to a stormy frontal passage, but looks like a pre-frontal trough will nuke any convergence and 5 or 6º/km lapse rates are pretty lame. Prefrontal trough also bringing in lower PW air ahead of the main front.

Anyway, 3 months to the tenth anniversary of the South Texas Christmas snow miracle when CRP got more snow in a day than the previous 70 years combined, and Brownsviile got the most snow since the 1800s.

yeah, happy Catholics going to celebrate the Incarnate Word...

Quoting 242. Dakster:



Darn it. You made shoot soup out my nose.

ALASKA WEATHER DRIVES TV REPORTER TO QUIT!
(Ha ha, it really wasn't the weather....)

Hey, Dakster, were you watching the news on KTVA (Alaska TV station) last night when the reporter quit on air?

This might be one of the funniest things to happen on live TV all year. Read about it here.

If they don't pull the video that's at the end of the story, watch it, but if you're at work be advised: NSFW. *Naughty language alert.*

Hilarious, to put it mildly.

(Oops...sorry, when I originally posted that I thought she was the weather reporter. Mods may delete this post if it's off topic. Sorry.)
I am still convinced invest will come from area 10N 35W. Conditions are beginning to get better. as soon as the ULL north west of the area moves further away, then we should see the advent of 97L.
Quoting 202. DCSwithunderscores:



Are you suggesting that sea ice is the primary method for determining whether or not AGW is occurring. It's not. AGW doesn't stand or fall based on sea ice, not even close. The evidence for AGW is overwhelming independent of sea ice observations. So why would the claim of AGW change based on antarctic sea ice observations, if the claim isn't founded on that?

See a comment by Naga5000 for a 1991 paper that predicted an increase in antarctic sea ice extent.

I'm suggesting that the AGW proponents use almost every event to forward their agenda. I've never said earth isn't getting warmer, it has. I have my doubts about how much is cyclical and how much is man-made. Is their any doubt that if the Antarctic was setting all-time low sea ice records, there would be stories in the press ad-nauseum regarding it? Do any of you folks remember last year when a huge piece of ice broke away from the ice shelf down there, how it was reported? I do.
Science has no agenda..only those who "obfuscate" it do, as seen here easily.
Quoting 249. Patrap:

Science has no agenda..only those who obfuscate it do, as seen here easily.



But leftist do. As seen here, easily, sport.
You have issues seems,

LOL

Climate Change
A scientific look at global change.


Based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.
Hundreds Of Thousands Turn Out For People's Climate March In New York City

NEW YORK -- More than 400,000 people turned out for the People's Climate March in New York City on Sunday, just days before many of the world's leaders are expected to debate environmental action at the United Nations climate summit.

Early reports from event organizers are hailing the turnout as the largest climate march in history, far bigger than the Forward on Climate rally held in Washington, D.C., last year. High-profile environmentalists including Bill McKibben, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jane Goodall and Vandana Shiva marched alongside policymakers such as Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.). U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and former Vice President Al Gore were also there, and more than 550 buses carried in people from around the country.

Follow along for live updates below.

The rally comes at an opportune time as 120 world leaders, including President Barack Obama, are expected to convene Tuesday at the United Nations in New York to discuss ways to tackle the growing threat of carbon pollution.

The White House has pledged to "show the world that the U.S. is leading on climate change, and to call on other leaders to step up to the plate," John Podesta, who serves as a counselor to the president, told reporters on Thursday. However, a recent study found that the world spewed more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere last year than ever before, primarily driven by China, India and the United States. And the top leaders of China and India announced earlier this month that they won't be attending Tuesday's summit.

The march began around 11:30 a.m., at New York City's Columbus Circle just off Central Park. At times, it stretched more than 4 miles as marchers carried banners, signs and entire contraptions depicting everything from Mother Earth herself to the dinosaurs that now make up fossil fuels.

peoples climate march
Demonstrators make their way down Sixth Avenue in New York during the People's Climate March on Sunday.

"Today I march because I want to behold a brighter future. We have destroyed ourselves. We have destroyed our health and I'm here because our political leaders have failed us," Stanley Sturgill, a retired coal miner from Kentucky now suffering from black lung, said at a press conference before the march. "We know together we can build our bright future."

More than 1,500 groups filled Central Park West before the march. They represented a variety of interests, including the scientific community and religious organizations. More than 50,000 students were there because they were worried about their future, while grandparents came out of concern for their legacy.

"We need to act now ... We only have one atmosphere and we of the Marshall Islands only have one land to call 'home,'" Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner, a young mother from the island nation, said before the march. "We don't want to move and we shouldn't have to move."

THE EQUINOX WHICH OCCURS AT 1029 PM TONIGHT MARKS THE START OF
FALL...
Astronomical Fall Begins at the Fall Equinox.....Tuesday, September 23, 2014 at 02:29 UTC

To be factual.....no need to shout it.

: P
trap you dont live in florida FALLs STARTING
You have issues seems,

LOL


Don't we all?
Yup, dee times dey be a changin'






Rockefellers Divesting From Big Oil


U.S. philantropist and oil magnate John D. Rockefeller gives a dime to a child, in this undated picture. Rockefeller was noted for his habit of giving coins as tips to all and sundry. (AP Photo)
The Rockefeller family is divesting some of its massive fortune from fossil fuels, the New York Times reported on Sunday. The Rockefeller Brothers Fund, the family's charitable arm, will announce the landmark move in a video conference on Monday along with 49 other foundations.

According to USA Today, the 50 groups will divest from 200 major oil and gas companies.




The Rockefellers are especially noteworthy given their family history. Patriarchs John D. Rockefeller and William Rockefeller amassed their fortunes while working in their oil industry. The Rockefeller brothers were co-founders of the Standard Oil Company, the world's largest oil refiner at the time.

The Rockefellers were also celebrated for their philanthropic work. According to his 1937 New York Times obituary, John D. Rockefeller gave $530 million to charity during his lifetime. He also helped establish the University of Chicago.

The Rockefeller Brothers Fund has been a major supporter of environmental advocacy. Last year, the charity gave over $6 million in grants to sustainable development projects.

The fossil fuel divestment movement has gained many other high-profile supporters in recent months, including actor Mark Ruffalo.

"It's a snowballing movement," Stephen Heintz, president of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, told USA Today.

According to the Washington Post, the Rockefellers plan to first divest from coal and tar-sands mining.
Rain rain oh yes and more rain Lol! :P
Quoting 246. stoormfury:

I am still convinced invest will come from area 10N 35W. Conditions are beginning to get better. as soon as the ULL north west of the area moves further away, then we should see the advent of 97L.


what happen to 96L ? wish would be next up in line from 95L
Good Morning..

CPC outlook for Oct, Nov, Dec..enjoy..

Seems like they lived life to the fullest. Tragic for the families. Wrong place, wrong time. They made a judgement call and it didn't work out for them.




Quoting 248. StormJunkie:

Very sad.
Quoting 257. Patrap:

Astronomical Fall Begins at the Fall Equinox.....Tuesday, September 23, 2014 at 02:29 UTC

To be factual.....no need to shout it.

: P
A few other things that have started too....I wonder how many have noticed.
Quoting 256. LargoFl:

THE EQUINOX WHICH OCCURS AT 1029 PM TONIGHT MARKS THE START OF
FALL...
this was from nws tampa...they always use caps for some reason.................AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
410 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...THE EQUINOX WHICH OCCURS AT 1029 PM TONIGHT MARKS THE START OF
FALL...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES WHILE TROUGHING WAS OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS...EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE EAST GULF OF MEXICO.
SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE CONUS
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT ARCED FROM NORTHERN TX THROUGH THE GULF
COASTAL STATES TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEST THROUGH THE STRAITS BETWEEN THE
KEYS AND CUBA.

&&
Dec-Jan-Feb 2014-15


Jan-Feb-Mar 2015



Quoting 265. ncstorm:

Good Morning..

CPC outlook for Oct, Nov, Dec..enjoy..



I wonder if I should give my hopes up about a storm forming in the western carribean next month
nc, I'll take it.

Hopefully a nice fall and holidays in our part of the world. Could care less what happens beyond New Year's as all I do is work, work, work that time of year until April when the outdoors wakes me up from hibernation.

Unless I still lived in ski country, winter is just something I tolerate. I do miss backcountry Nordic and snowboarding though.


Quoting 265. ncstorm:

Good Morning..

CPC outlook for Oct, Nov, Dec..enjoy..


Quoting 271. weatherman994:

I wonder if I should give my hopes up about a storm forming in the western carribean next month
Why.? I wouldnt be surprised if we get two or three down there.
Some people are so funny.Lol.Well EC's is what they gave us last year as well when discussing winter and looked how are winter turned out.
Yup, remember that well. That's why I said "hopefully" in my post.

Quoting 274. washingtonian115:

Some people are so funny.Lol.Well EC's is what they gave us last year as well when discussing winter and looked how are winter turned out.
Good morning guys
I see GFS showing W Carib storm still

Actually GFS had been pretty consistent, from 12Z 19 sept to now 06Z, that a tropical system would form and move through the Caribbean, some time between the last bit of Sept and early Oct. This is with the acception of 3 runs that take it N and E of the Caribbean, so that would be about 9 runs showing Carib storm. In total about 12 runs that show a tropical system sometime between the end of Sept/early Oct.

It is moving up the time line, somewhat, so I'll keep it in mind, but I want to see it get out of the dream hrs before starting to really look into it.

Although as of current the system can be traced back to SE of CV Islands at 120hrs and comming across the Atlantic and into the Carib there after

So not so far fetched into Dreamland to be honest
Quoting 250. PensacolaDoug:




But leftist do. As seen here, easily, sport.

Thank goodness nobody on the right wing has an agenda, right, sport?

So if by leftists you mean anybody that thinks 97% of scientists might just be on to something, then yes, I suppose they are leftists, by your definition.

Are you aware of any studies that show that burning more coal is good for the environment? I'm just curious.
This is the yacht Leonardo DiCaprio attended the FIFA World Cup games in while telling us little people to cut our carbon footprints. Leadership by example.

Equinox is sort of an artificial guideline. Yes, longer nights after, but JJA are the three warmest months, DJF are the three coldest months, 3 are effectively 3 weeks into Autumn already.

The one cool thing about the Equinox, rate instantaneous rate of change of sun angle and day length is highest at the Equinox, one can notice the days getting shorter, at the Solstice, one can hardly see the change.

Heard rumors Roman Saturnalia (when Christians in Rome celebrated Christmas so as not to stand out) was the first day people could actually tell, using Roman Empire technology, that the days were getting longer.
CURRENT 06Z















The GFS is back to playing tricks on us again.What I'll take from it is to expect a increase in rain over the next week in the caribbean.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The GFS is back to playing tricks on us again.What I'll take from it is to expect a increase in rain over the next week in the caribbean.


Hmm that's one way of putting it
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Good morning guys
I see GFS showing W Carib storm still

Actually GFS had been pretty consistent, from 12Z 19 sept to now 06Z, that a tropical system would form and move through the Caribbean, some time between the last bit of Sept and early Oct. This is with the acception of 3 runs that take it N and E of the Caribbean, so that would be about 9 runs showing Carib storm. In total about 12 runs that show a tropical system sometime between the end of Sept/early Oct.

It is moving up the time line, somewhat, so I'll keep it in mind, but I want to see it get out of the dream hrs before starting to really look into it.

Although as of current the system can be traced back to SE of CV Islands at 120hrs and comming across the Atlantic and into the Carib there after

So not so far fetched into Dreamland to be honest



I'm still waiting for the GOM system the GFS had been predicting for most of September.



Ladies and gentlemen and not gentlemen (lol)
We must realise that this is the time the transition stage from Sept to Oct this time of year you should be expecting systems exactly like what GFS is showing

So I wouldn't really discount it out
Quoting Sfloridacat5:



I'm still waiting for the GOM system the GFS had been predicting for most of September.




That ghost couldn't get out of 252hrs and longer

This actually starts at 120hrs SE of CV Islands and starts to actually develop around 180-192hrs

So big time difference 120hrs compared to 252hrs
Even 180hrs

And if you look back it's not the most of Sept at all nether
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Good morning guys
I see GFS showing W Carib storm still

Actually GFS had been pretty consistent, from 12Z 19 sept to now 06Z, that a tropical system would form and move through the Caribbean, some time between the last bit of Sept and early Oct. This is with the acception of 3 runs that take it N and E of the Caribbean, so that would be about 9 runs showing Carib storm. In total about 12 runs that show a tropical system sometime between the end of Sept/early Oct.

It is moving up the time line, somewhat, so I'll keep it in mind, but I want to see it get out of the dream hrs before starting to really look into it.

Although as of current the system can be traced back to SE of CV Islands at 120hrs and comming across the Atlantic and into the Carib there after

So not so far fetched into Dreamland to be honest




Quoting Sfloridacat5:



I'm still waiting for the GOM system the GFS had been predicting for most of September.





Read it
This is not SFL weather Lol it is Mostly Cloudy and only 76 out right!
Quoting 196. Jedkins01:



Southeast Michigan has a rough year, crazy stuff.

That is weird the tornado warning wasn't issued. There are cases where tornadoes develop between scans, or they are out of radar range.

It can happen to anyone though, as a student who has only volunteered at the NWS, I am not qualified to say how the NWS will deal with cases like this. But I can say that they thoroughly investigate missed cases. The NWS does take these things seriously and will carefully examine what might have happened, that I do know.


The tornado touched down only about 14.6 miles from the radar and SAILS was active so it caught the tornado pretty well. I can understand that a warning wasn't issued beforehand as there wasn't much indication of one forming and it formed and dissipated in only 2 minutes. Also there wasn't supposed to be any tornadoes from the early morning round. There was only a 5% wind/hail risk and no mention of tornadoes from NWS Detroit or the SPC. Still not exactly sure why a warning wasn't issued right after since there was a confirmed tornado. I know several of the mets there and I'm sure they will look into it seriously.
Quoting 278. EdMahmoud:

This is the yacht Leonardo DiCaprio attended the FIFA World Cup games in while telling us little people to cut our carbon footprints. Leadership by example.




I always found it humorous that the worlds top scientists/advocates of agw burn jet fuel over thousands of miles to get to Davos, Switzerland. And your Looneys who have private jets all the way to Al Gore, who has a ranch (methane produced) and owned a hummer for a long time.
yea it would of been better if leonard showed up in his million $ tesla
Quoting 271. weatherman994:

I wonder if I should give my hopes up about a storm forming in the western carribean next month

Probably not.

Quoting 291. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Probably not.




Hooray for MJO, hip hip!
Quoting 289. win1gamegiantsplease:



I always found it humorous that the worlds top scientists/advocates of agw burn jet fuel over thousands of miles to get to Davos, Switzerland. And your Looneys who have private jets all the way to Al Gore, who has a ranch (methane produced) and owned a hummer for a long time.

A few things:

1) The "world's top scientists" don't attend Davos; that's an economic forum, not a scientific one.

2) The largest "advocates of AGW" on the planet are Big Oil CEOs and the politicians and cables "news" networks beholden to them.

3) Your last sentence, syntactically twisted though it is, suffers from several profound problems. First, why is the term loonies capitalized, while the word Hummers, which should be, isn't? Second, what's Al Gore got to do with this? You do realize the guy hasn't held an official policy-making position since the last millennium, right? Third, what difference does having a ranch make?

4) Even if all of the "world's top scientists" were flying their private jumbo jets off to Davos everyday so they could drive Hummers around the deck of their private yachts while "advocating AGW" (whatever that means) and collecting massive cash payments for lying about science and sending large piles of $100 bills to Al Gore so he could buy more land for his ranch so he can in turn raise more methane-belching cattle, none of that would change in the slightest the fact that the planet is warming at an increasingly rapid pace due to our unimpeded burning of fossil fuels. You do at least know that, right?

Right?
Quoting 278. EdMahmoud:

This is the yacht Leonardo DiCaprio attended the FIFA World Cup games in while telling us little people to cut our carbon footprints. Leadership by example.




I'm sure it was solar or windmill powered..lets not jump to conclusions..
The atmosphere seems to be warming much more rapidly since blogs were invented.
Quoting 293. Neapolitan:


A few things:

1) The "world's top scientists" don't attend Davos; that's an economic forum, not a scientific one.

2) The largest "advocates of AGW" on the planet are Big Oil CEOs and the politicians and cables "news" networks beholden to them.

3) Your last sentence, syntactically twisted though it is, suffers from several profound problems. First, why is the term loonies capitalized, while the word Hummers, which should be, isn't? Second, what's Al Gore got to do with this? You do realize the guy hasn't held an official policy-making position since the last millennium, right? Third, what difference does having a ranch make?

4) Even if all of the "world's top scientists" were flying their private jumbo jets off to Davos everyday so they could drive Hummers around the deck of their private yachts while "advocating AGW" (whatever that means) and collecting massive cash payments for lying about science and sending large piles of $100 bills to Al Gore so he could buy more land for his ranch so he can in turn raise more methane-belching cattle, none of that would change in the slightest the fact that the planet is warming at an increasingly rapid pace due to our unimpeded burning of fossil fuels. You do at least know that, right?

Right?


I typed it from my phone, it was supposed to say Clooney. Scientists was the wrong thing to say, it is the Davos Economic Forum but climate change costs is always discussed. I was just highlighting irony, nothing I said in that post means there's no such thing as global warming, and there's no need in correcting my grammar to drive home your point that I know nothing.
70 days left until the end of the hurricane season. Eight names on the conventional list left. 99E set to cross Rachel off the list over the coming days (and become our next major?).

Quoting 296. win1gamegiantsplease:



I typed it from my phone, it was supposed to say Clooney. Scientists was the wrong thing to say, it is the Davos Economic Forum but climate change costs is always discussed. I was just highlighting irony, nothing I said in that post means there's no such thing as global warming, and there's no need in correcting my grammar to drive home your point that I know nothing.


Grammatical errors have increased at an alarming rate since we went over 400ppm atmospheric C02. It's not just you. And it's only going to get worse. Much worse.
Quoting 280. wunderkidcayman:

CURRENT 06Z
















good morning. The ECMWF seems to show some kind of activity travelint in the atlantic at about the same time frame than the GFS.
in regards to the uncertanity of the QPF for Gulf coasts and midatlantic..

WPC..

AFTER DAY 5...THE INTERACTION OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING PACIFIC
TROUGH WITH THE TRAPPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND/OR ITS REMNANTS
CREATES A WIDE VARIETY OF QPF SOLUTIONS. OF THE 21/12Z
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A MUCH SLOWER
SOLUTION VERSUS THE CANADIAN AND GFS---AND CONSEQUENTLY---LOOKED
WETTER OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIER OVER THE MIDWEST. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE EQUALLY APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION...WITH THE
ECMWF THE WETTEST SOLUTION ALONG THE GULF COAST'S PORTION OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR FROM PENSACOLA TO JACKSONVILLE.

A MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL SHOULD YIELD A RATHER HUMID AND LOCALLY
WET...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO MISSISSIPPI.

Quoting 296. win1gamegiantsplease:



I typed it from my phone, it was supposed to say Clooney. Scientists was the wrong thing to say, it is the Davos Economic Forum but climate change costs is always discussed. I was just highlighting irony, nothing I said in that post means there's no such thing as global warming, and there's no need in correcting my grammar to drive home your point that I know nothing.


Ah, "Clooney". Got it. Not calling them crazy, then. Instead, just another tired attempt to paint them there Hollywood lib'ruhls as hoity-toity and out-of-touch, and therefore obviously wrong where any and all of their opinions are concerned.

I see. Carry one as you were... ;-)
384 hours out...a 1003 MB Low between us & Jamaica ?
Hmmm ... I better get moving
I got 16 days....


new picture on september 21 2014 and a new tropical low to watch




Quoting 299. FBMinFL:



Grammatical errors have increased at an alarming rate since we went over 400ppm atmospheric C02. It's not just you. And it's only going to get worse. Much worse.
how do you want this it's only going to get worse thing now or later
Morning all. Early fall?

Quoting 305. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

how do you want this it's only going to get worse thing now or later


? I want it stay the same, but the damage is done to the atmosphere. There isn't any way to avoid whatever climatic consequences now, unfortunately.



early fall at my house only 60F at my house!! new picture this morning look at all the trees
Celebrities are only good for agendas when they are informed and shown in the correct light..when they are shown partying on a diesel-multi-million-impacting-the-environment-yac ht then people are just picking on them..it brings up that old saying in Whats eating Gilbert Grape..

I remember Dr. Masters posting about the all star celebrity documentary for Showtime in regards to climate change..at least we can hold on to the memories for that one..

Work calls..
I know the Doc is just waiting for me to post something so he can put up his new blog. Come on Dr. Masters. There should be some interesting things happening in the Atlantic this week.


Quoting 311. Grothar:




If only I could get rain from this........ it's very dry again here.

Not normal...
Global warming is a hoax. I have no evidence to prove it, but I have a gut feeling (Ipsum, L. 13 March 1989.Gut Feelings And Global Warming, A Digestive Study. Tin Foil Hat Magazine. [3 September 1998; 20 September 2014];8675309 (70): 69-103. www.lipsum.com).
Quoting 313. Grothar:




Gro, did any hail fall in your area last night? It came down for a few seconds in where I live in Dade. It was short lived, but audible.
Quoting 288. wxchaser97:

The tornado touched down only about 14.6 miles from the radar and SAILS was active so it caught the tornado pretty well. I can understand that a warning wasn't issued beforehand as there wasn't much indication of one forming and it formed and dissipated in only 2 minutes. Also there wasn't supposed to be any tornadoes from the early morning round. There was only a 5% wind/hail risk and no mention of tornadoes from NWS Detroit or the SPC. Still not exactly sure why a warning wasn't issued right after since there was a confirmed tornado. I know several of the mets there and I'm sure they will look into it seriously.

What I find interesting is a couple of weeks ago they had the same
slight risk warning when 400k DTE customers lost power as they had this time with minimal outages.
Good Morning Friends. Forget the Atlantic basin for the moment..............The E-Pac is on the move again.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/rb-l.jpg
Quoting 317. CaribBoy:




I wish a low could form east of Guadeloupe
Quoting 316. ElConando:



Gro, did any hail fall in your area last night? It came down for a few seconds in where I live in Dade. It was short lived, but audible.


Yes, for a very short time. The rain was coming down sideways and we could some some small hail bouncing on the patio. We did get over 3" of rain with that one. Quite a lightning show.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1003 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...

BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A HUGE
DISPARITY BETWEEN PWATS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. PWATS ACROSS
NORTHERN FL ARE BELOW AN INCH WHEREAS VALUES ARE NEARING 2" ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR REGION. DECENT MID LEVEL SHRTWV WILL COMBINE WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF TO SPARK DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTAINS THE HIGHEST MODEL POPS, FOCUS MAY BE SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH BASED UPON THETA E GRADIENT WHICH HAS SET UP JUST
NORTH OF I-75. ACTUALLY, SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIRMASS LIES ACROSS
GLADES/HENRY COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR. CONVERGENCE THROUGH SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD KEEP STORMS THERE THIS MORNING,
WITH WEAK LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOVING SOME OF THESE CELLS CLOSE TO
THE MIAMI/DADE/SOUTHERN BROWARD BEACHES THIS AM.
Quoting 293. Neapolitan:


A few things:

1) The "world's top scientists" don't attend Davos; that's an economic forum, not a scientific one.

2) The largest "advocates of AGW" on the planet are Big Oil CEOs and the politicians and cables "news" networks beholden to them.

3) Your last sentence, syntactically twisted though it is, suffers from several profound problems. First, why is the term loonies capitalized, while the word Hummers, which should be, isn't? Second, what's Al Gore got to do with this? You do realize the guy hasn't held an official policy-making position since the last millennium, right? Third, what difference does having a ranch make?

4) Even if all of the "world's top scientists" were flying their private jumbo jets off to Davos everyday so they could drive Hummers around the deck of their private yachts while "advocating AGW" (whatever that means) and collecting massive cash payments for lying about science and sending large piles of $100 bills to Al Gore so he could buy more land for his ranch so he can in turn raise more methane-belching cattle, none of that would change in the slightest the fact that the planet is warming at an increasingly rapid pace due to our unimpeded burning of fossil fuels. You do at least know that, right?

Right?


Umm...
Quoting 293. Neapolitan:


...none of that would change in the slightest the fact that the planet is warming at an increasingly rapid pace due to our unimpeded burning of fossil fuels. You do at least know that, right?

Right?


Quoting NOAA:

At this point, we know that abrupt climate change is a reality. It has happened before and will happen again. How and why it happened in the past are still open questions, as are how, why, and when it might happen in the future.


I agree climate change is happening. I agree CO2 is not helping. However, I ask again, without knowing why this has happened in the past, how can we discount the fact there is not another phenomena currently occuring that would be happening with or without our current CO2 output?
Quoting 307. FBMinFL:



? I want it stay the same, but the damage is done to the atmosphere. There isn't any way to avoid whatever climatic consequences now, unfortunately.
it is going to get too the point that nothing will be the same again or ever will be
Quoting 323. Webberweather53:



Umm...



Still trying to pass off surface temperature as a measure of total energy in the system? You're certainly smarter than that.

Edit: Actually surface temp combined with lower tropospheric temperature, but that would be nitpicking I suppose.
Quoting 299. FBMinFL:



Grammatical errors have increased at an alarming rate since we went over 400ppm atmospheric C02. It's not just you. And it's only going to get worse. Much worse.
97% of clinical analysts have shown that increased levels of atmospheric CO2 impede the language centers of the human brain and cause increased levels of gibberish among individuals with IQs below 120.
Quoting 302. Neapolitan:



Ah, "Clooney". Got it. Not calling them crazy, then. Instead, just another tired attempt to paint them there Hollywood lib'ruhls as hoity-toity and out-of-touch, and therefore obviously wrong where any and all of their opinions are concerned.

I see. Carry one as you were... ;-)


Just a helpful reminder that win1gamegiantsplease should carry on as he/she were. (Seeing from past precedence that syntax and grammar are of obvious importance to you.)
Quoting 326. Naga5000:



Still trying to pass off surface temperature as a measure of total energy in the system? You're certainly smarter than that.


Nice straw man, he was obviously referencing surface temperature when he said "the planet is warming at an increasingly rapid pace", not total energy in the system ... :) Nice try though
Quoting 327. CaneFreeCR:

97% of clinical analysts have shown that increased levels of atmospheric CO2 impede the language centers of the human brain and cause increased levels of gibberish among individuals with IQs below 120.
I am good I have 142
Quoting 329. Webberweather53:



Nice straw man, he was obviously referencing surface temperature when he said "the planet is warming at an increasingly rapid pace", not total energy in the system ... :) Nice try though


"Obviously", no not so much. You may have thought that, but it certainly doesn't make it true.

You tried to take a cheap shot and failed miserably.
Quoting 257. Patrap:

Astronomical Fall Begins at the Fall Equinox.....Tuesday, September 23, 2014 at 02:29 UTC

To be factual.....no need to shout it.

: P


Just to note. In most of the northern hemisphere, the transition quarter between the warmest quarter and the coldest quarter of the year begins before the autumnal equinox. In the DC metro area it's about Sept 7-Dec 7.
Quoting 312. CaribBoy:



If only I could get rain from this........ it's very dry again here.

Not normal...

This morning I could see a line of weather approaching us and finally I thought rain! but as usual it dissipated just prior to making it to us.....we have a force field around us....
Quoting 331. Naga5000:



"Obviously", no not so much. You may have thought that, but it certainly doesn't make it true.

You tried to take a cheap shot and failed miserably.


Increase in total energy in the system doesn't always=warmer temperatures, you should obviously know that right? The lack of specificity in Neapolitan's comment on what temporal scale the earth is "warming at an increasing rate" is what I was aiming towards. When you immediately resort to condescending remarks as in your initial response, don't expect anything nice in return...
Rain chances here are 50% today, then 90, 80, 60.... WU shows above 50% every day for next ten days.



Been rumbling offshore all morning, but no drops yet. Just gloomy and muggy.
Quoting 333. 19N81W:


This morning I could see a line of weather approaching us and finally I thought rain! but as usual it dissipated just prior to making it to us.....we have a force field around us....


Same here at 18N 63W... thunderstorms always weaken or dissipate when they get closer to us.

A fact that many islands to our south don't have to deal with... lucky they are...

Antigua and Barbuda may be our blocking shield ://
Quoting 334. Webberweather53:



Increase in total energy in the system doesn't always=warmer temperatures, you should obviously know that right? The lack of specificity in Neapolitan's comment on what temporal the earth is "warming at an increasing rate" is what I was aiming towards. When you immediately resort to condescending remarks as in your initial response, don't expect anything nice in return...


I expect nothing but obfuscation from you, which is exactly what your attempt to discredit Neapolitan was. Total heat also includes the ocean surface and subsurface which you conveniently left out. You aren't being honest in your statement which is definitely expected from you in regards to climate change based on past interactions. Despite your demeanor and knowledge about meteorology, you regularly misrepresent the science behind climate change and show a sincere disregard for the established discourse by referring to regular denier talking points and blog science.

Let's not play games.
One thing is undeniable: the civility here is much-improved over the dark days of those Miscreants, circa 2010.

Published on Sep 12, 2014

NASA To Shoot Lasers At Earth's Forests From Space
Using tech known as lidar, a device will map forests in 3D and increase understanding of their role in the carbon cycle.


Quoting 323. Webberweather53:



Umm...



You don't get it, whether AGW is what people say or not makes no difference, you are mistakenly thinking that data means anything here unless it is what is popularly believed. The fact that summer ice in the arctic is much increased, recently, over the past few years also makes no difference, so don't even go there. So what if the temps don't jive with what was preached. It will -- it must, because fate and the concentrated will of all those who cannot allow themselves to ever be wrong in anything (and perhaps the $$$ you alluded to)....will ensure the popularity of the AGW doctrines living on for awhile, however much truth there may or may not be in them.

So the Soviets & Cubans rewrote history for awhile. How could it happen? Easy: they had the power to do so. They could make the "facts" be whatever they wanted them to be. Hmm, I wonder if they told the commie crowds that Washington chopped down cherry trees to help the working masses to create a pre-soviet state in America. Anyways, we won't know for sure about it all until most of us are dead, too old to remember all this, or AGW proves out at least enough to garner more "I-told-you-soers" before being quietly forgotten. If right, by then folks will have adapted like they always do -- move to higher ground, building condos on the sunny coast of Alaska, fighting over fishing rights at the north pole, etc.

EDIT: Remember, Big Brother is watching to make sure the masses believe what they are intended to believe & taught to believe. cf. re. communist govts., the Vietnam "police action", the Syrian "non-war" and the Spanish-American War (started by the oh-so-trustworthy news media).
How about a nice game of Chess?
Quoting 302. Neapolitan:



Ah, "Clooney". Got it. Not calling them crazy, then. Instead, just another tired attempt to paint them there Hollywood lib'ruhls as hoity-toity and out-of-touch, and therefore obviously wrong where any and all of their opinions are concerned.

Edit: sorry I had to be a part of stirring the pot, time [for me] to move on
I see. Carry one as you were... ;-)


Political leaning has nothing to do with this, at least in my case. There are likely plenty of liberals who are skeptical of global warming, maybe even in Hollywood, just as there are plenty of conservatives who pronounce the English language correctly.
Quoting 341. FBMinFL:

How about a nice game of Chess?
the only winning move is not to play
Quoting 339. Patrap:

Published on Sep 12, 2014

NASA To Shoot Lasers At Earth's Forests From Space
Using tech known as lidar, a device will map forests in 3D and increase understanding of their role in the carbon cycle.





So, how careless can they be?
Shooting lasers at all the forests, they could accidentally be mistaken as taking hostile activity by UFO aliens hiding their saucers in various locations, resulting in an exchange of laser-fire (the USA thinking it's the Chinese, and retaliating). Next thing we know, we are in an intergallactic war! :))
Last night was the first "chilly" night I've felt in a while, which is making me excited for the real onset of fall/winter. It's been very sunny today and the sun is very warm, but with a slight chill in the air.

P.S: I'm just wondering but could the climate change talk be moved to Dr. Rood's blog? I don't mind if it's relevant to the blog post, but the post doesn't mention it and it just ends up being the same people aruging over the same things and it becomes rather redundant.
Quoting 341. FBMinFL:

How about a nice game of Chess?


Would..you..like...to..play..a..game?
Quoting 323. Webberweather53:



Umm...



Yes?

Quoting 339. Patrap:

Published on Sep 12, 2014

NASA To Shoot Lasers At Earth's Forests From Space
Using tech known as lidar, a device will map forests in 3D and increase understanding of their role in the carbon cycle.



now ya done it everyone will be wearing a tin foil hat reflecting them there laser
I adore the debates over AGW on this blog because both sides are so firmly entrenched in their beliefs that no amount of data or discussion can make any sort of impact. They always devolve into subtle name calling disguised as "here's education, you ignorant fool" or "if you knew how to read, you'd know what I meant to say."

So, that being said, here's education, you ignorant fools.
Quoting 348. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

now ya done it everyone will be wearing a tin foil hat reflecting them there lasers


Quoting 349. LongIslandBeaches:

I adore the debates over AGW on this blog because both sides are so firmly entrenched in their beliefs that no amount of data or discussion can make any sort of impact. They always devolve into subtle name calling disguised as "here's education, you ignorant fool" or "if you knew how to read, you'd know what I meant to say."

So, that being said, here's education, you ignorant fools.


That's exactly right, I couldn't have said it better myself. The global warming debates that occur on this blog are exercises in futility because, as you said, neither side is willing to consider the opposing opinion. It's totally pointless.
Quoting 337. Naga5000:



I expect nothing but obfuscation from you, which is exactly what your attempt to discredit Neapolitan was. Total heat also includes the ocean surface and subsurface which you conveniently left out. You aren't being honest in your statement which is definitely expected from you in regards to climate change based on past interactions. Despite your demeanor and knowledge about meteorology, you regularly misrepresent the science behind climate change and show a sincere disregard for the established discourse by referring to regular denier talking points and blog science.

Let's not play games.


Science? If one of your main arguments to promulgate AGW is consensus, the scientific basis of the argument obviously wasn't strong enough...
Sure you could argue the system as a whole is warming, but the standard for global temperature is near surface & lower tropospheric air temperature anomalies, you're grasping at straws. There's a distinct difference between temperature and energy of a system, anyone who can read a graph knows the temperature is not increasing at a more rapid pace in the last decade or so (the burden is on Neapolitan to specify the time period he's referring to). I could care less that you're upset I don't conform to your biased approach on AGW, and labeling me as a denier is highly unprofessional, especially for someone working towards their PhD...
Not breaking news, but..




Climate Change
A scientific look at global change.


Wunderground's Climate Change Position

Based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 313. Grothar:




Duh, in that big blob on the right, I saw dat up close on the Wundermap.
Why are dem clouds going west and east both in the same area? (:))
Quoting 347. Neapolitan:



Yes?





Wow what a surprise, spikes in global temperature follow El Ninos...

The Science of Climate Change was settled over a decade ago, what is described as any perceived debate iz in Social Media Circles,..

The Physics involved are known, as are the obs and predictions for the future.

Were gonna blow past 2 C easily.

400ppm CO2 and climbing is not a fudged factor.

Its gone up 85ppm in my 54 years alone...

2014, the year the CO2 induced climate forcing's fought back





Quoting 340. WalkingInTheSun:



You don't get it, whether AGW is what people say or not makes no difference, you are mistakenly thinking that data means anything here unless it is what is popularly believed. The fact that summer ice in the arctic is much increased, recently, over the past few years also makes no difference, so don't even go there. So what if the temps don't jive with what was preached. It will -- it must, because fate and the concentrated will of all those who cannot allow themselves to ever be wrong in anything (and perhaps the $$$ you alluded to)....will ensure the popularity of the AGW doctrines living on for awhile, however much truth there may or may not be in them.

So the Soviets & Cubans rewrote history for awhile. How could it happen? Easy: they had the power to do so. They could make the "facts" be whatever they wanted them to be. Hmm, I wonder if they told the commie crowds that Washington chopped down cherry trees to help the working masses to create a pre-soviet state in America. Anyways, we won't know for sure about it all until most of us are dead, too old to remember all this, or AGW proves out at least enough to garner more "I-told-you-soers" before being quietly forgotten. If right, by then folks will have adapted like they always do -- move to higher ground, building condos on the sunny coast of Alaska, fighting over fishing rights at the north pole, etc.

EDIT: Remember, Big Brother is watching to make sure the masses believe what they are intended to believe & taught to believe. cf. re. communist govts., the Vietnam "police action", the Syrian "non-war" and the Spanish-American War (started by the oh-so-trustworthy news media).


It was indirectly made crystal clear to me a few weeks ago (if it wasn't already) that emotional appeal has taken precedence over science for many at this blog, exhibit a...

"Those people described by Naga--the liars, the deniers, the paid and unpaid shills, the intentionally ignorant, the ideologically-blinded, the anti-science, anti-logic, anti-common sense masses--are engaged in a deadly game. Now, I'm enough of a libertarian to believe that if an adult wants to do himself in out of his own stupidity, no one should to stop him. But the game that's being played isn't affecting just those Fox fools and WUWT wannabes and Monckton morons; it's affecting me, too, and my children, and their children, and so on. I don't know about you, but when a person is trying his best to harm me or my family, I don't spend much time carefully choosing pleasant-sounding PC words that'll soothe him and cause him no offense or insult. No, I pretty much let him have it, and I will fight to the death if I have to for me and mine. So if some clown chooses to block my ability to protect and provide, I'm of the opinion that having his fee-fees hurt by a few harsh words in a public internet forum will be the very least of his worries."
Quoting 358. Webberweather53:




Wow what a surprise, spikes in global temperature follow El Ninos...




That's good of you to notice that, but I'm afraid the judges will have to deduct a few points for you missing the very obvious long-term temperature trend as represented by the horizontal decadal lines. That rise isn't die to El Nino, my friend. No, the planet is warming. Rapidly. Perhaps not on a noticeable daily basis. But over the long term, it is indeed getting hotter...
Quoted from Patrap's post
Climate Change
A scientific look at global change.


Wunderground's Climate Change Position

Based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.


Alternate readings could apply?

Based on the evidence, I have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening: someone farted & lit a match, and it got hotter on his arse . Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, the polar bears can now slip on the ice, again -- oops, no, they can't. I mean, they can but they can't" they were slated for extinction - a real shot in the arm for GW, you know? Darned weather: it never cooperates with our agendas!
--- Tap, tap,...1, 2 -- was that a hot mike? (%$&#@!)

So,....and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action. Therefore, we must sadly and regrettably (hehehaha) take much more of your money and make you suffer tiny, dangerous cars that kill your family members while we all ride & fly about in luxury petro-fuel-guzzlers. It is all for your own good. Oh, and btw, we cannot have the USA topping other nations' economies -- it has been too unfair and racist for too long -- so, there will be more crippling rules against U.S. businesses, too.

EDIT: Sorry, Patrap, I'm in a fun mood & couldn't resist. Have a great day! :)
Quoting 362. Neapolitan:



That's good of you to notice that, but I'm afraid the judges will have to deduct a few points for you missing the very obvious long-term temperature trend as represented by the horizontal decadal lines. That rise isn't die to El Nino, my friend. No, the planet is warming. Rapidly. Perhaps not on a noticeable daily basis. But over the long term, it is indeed getting hotter...


I see, it's somehow just mere coincidence that those periods commenced & ended w/ the El Ninos of 1976-77/77-78, 1986-87/87-88, 1997-98, & 2009-10...
Joshua is that you?

Quoting 343. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

the only winning move is not to play
Quoting 361. Webberweather53:



.....I don't know about you, but when a person is trying his best to harm me or my family, I don't spend much time carefully choosing pleasant-sounding PC words that'll soothe him and cause him no offense or insult. No, I pretty much let him have it, and I will fight to the death if I have to for me and mine. So if some clown chooses to block my ability to protect and provide, I'm of the opinion that having his fee-fees hurt by a few harsh words in a public internet forum will be the very least of his worries."



I will venture to say that family is more likely to get hurt or killed by a micro-car forced onto the American public than by GW. I hear at times radical talk about those on the right, but this kind of talk often comes from liberals and is rather scary, too - maybe more so. You really don't want to PO a radical liberal bent on the good of humanity even if he has to kill people to do it. Heh.
PS - Just ask President Obama about that recent visitor to the White House while he was gone.
Was talking to superpete about Ivan and Charley. I'm still amazed at how lucky we were looking back. I drew an arrow and circle indicating where I live on the peninsula. It's hard to fathom what my town would look like if the storm had come ashore 8-10 miles north. It was incredibly strong for such a compact system. Intense day for us, August 13th, 2004. Charley made it's initial landfall on uninhabited Cayo Costa Island on the south side of Boca Grande pass as a 150 mph hurricane around 4 pm that day.



I wunder how hot it was when dinosaurs roamed a tropical earth? -- Are we there yet? If not, we might not be at normal temps yet. :))
Btw, I got plenty of tinfoil for my hat.
Quoting 362. Neapolitan:



That's good of you to notice that, but I'm afraid the judges will have to deduct a few points for you missing the very obvious long-term temperature trend as represented by the horizontal decadal lines. That rise isn't die to El Nino, my friend. No, the planet is warming. Rapidly. Perhaps not on a noticeable daily basis. But over the long term, it is indeed getting hotter...


Even the IPCC acknowledges that El Ninos significantly affect global temperatures...
"Whether global warming is influencing El Niño, especially given the remarkable El Niño of 1997/98, is a key question (Trenberth, 1998b), especially as El Niño affects global temperature itself (Section 2.2 and Chapter 7)."

Quoting 369. Sfloridacat5:




They're finally beginning to move ashore.Not here however. They've been out there making noise all day.

Quoting GatorWX:
Was talking to SuperPete about Ivan and Charley. I'm still amazed at how lucky we were in retrospect. I drew an arrow and circle indicating where I live on the peninsula. It's hard to fathom what my town would look like if the storm had gone 8-10 miles north. It was incredibly strong for such a compact system. Intense day for us, August 13th, 2004. Charley hit uninhabited Cayo Costa on the south side of Boca Grande pass as a 150 mph hurricane around 4 pm that day.





We lost the roof to our business in east Cape Coral during Charley. The fire station just down the street recorded 148 mph wind gust. Some say it was a tornado based on the damage path through the area, but I'm not sure. I just know the winds were intense. Pretty much all the trees were blown over in the area (and blocking all the roads).
Charley was a very scary experience I don't want to go through again.
Quoting 371. Webberweather53:



Even the IPCC acknowledges that El Ninos significantly affect global temperatures...
"Whether global warming is influencing El Niño, especially given the remarkable El Niño of 1997/98, is a key question (Trenberth, 1998b), especially as El Niño affects global temperature itself (Section 2.2 and Chapter 7)."




From Foster an Ramstorf 2011:



Quoting GatorWX:


They're finally beginning to move ashore.Not here however. They've been out there making noise all day.



Yeah, they're moving onshore in Largo's area. He doesn't need any more rain up there.

Down in my area the rain shield is still working.

0.0" in the past 24 hours.
Quoting 354. Webberweather53:



Science? If one of your main arguments to promulgate AGW is consensus, the scientific basis of the argument obviously wasn't strong enough...
Sure you could argue the system as a whole is warming, but the standard for global temperature is near surface & lower tropospheric air temperature anomalies, you're grasping at straws. There's a distinct difference between temperature and energy of a system, anyone who can read a graph knows the temperature is not increasing at a more rapid pace in the last decade or so (the burden is on Neapolitan to specify the time period he's referring to). I could care less that you're upset I don't conform to your biased approach on AGW, and labeling me as a denier is highly unprofessional, especially for someone working towards their PhD...


What a load of crap.

1) The consensus isn't used to promote AGW, it is used to promote the fact there is no credible alternative theory.

2) What standard? The one you choose to use? No the standard, defined by the discipline is the entirety of the system, especially considering most of the warming goes into the oceans. Your argument here is a straw man.

3) Again, surface temperature may be what laypeople use, but it is not the standard. Maybe your inability to grasp the science is rooted in your inability to understand this.

4) I don't have a biased approach, I have used the standard interpretation as defined by every single major scientific organization in the world. You are using a non standard, biased standpoint.

5) You deny the science of global warming, therefore, you are a science denier. It's not unprofessional, I study science denial...your aggregate group is people who think vaccines cause autism, people who think GMO foods have negative health impacts, people who think vitamin K shots contribute to autism. You should think about that, there is an entire part of a discipline devoted to studying the very thing you engage in. Unprofessional? quite the opposite.

Quoting Grothar:
I know the Doc is just waiting for me to post something so he can put up his new blog. Come on Dr. Masters. There should be some interesting things happening in the Atlantic this week.


Very quiet in the atlantic, thats what you're going to hear. Unless, there is some models support for anything....
"
Quoting 376. Naga5000:



What a load of crap.

1) The consensus isn't used to promote AGW, it is used to promote the fact there is no credible alternative theory.


2)


Translation?
"Poop! -- A group of people agrees that agreeing means they have not found anything better to agree on and, therefore, what they agreed about must be the truth."

I know, it hurts, but that is not sound logic.
Something isn't automatically truth simply because a group has not found a different possible answer that they can all agree upon. Right? I mean, that is accurate thinking, you know. Lack of knowledge or truth or certainty is not the same as a proof of certainty or facts. Something to think on. Consensus cannot be our god. We must cherish truth, whatever it is, whomever has to eat humble pie in the end. Consensus must not be the goal of science or else knowledge will inevitably be kicked into a corner whenever enough people fail to see it or understand it.
Quoting 378. WalkingInTheSun:

"

Translation?
"Poop! -- A group of people agrees that agreeing means they have not found anything better to agree on and, therefore, what they agreed about must be the truth."

I know, it hurts, but that is not sound logic.
Something isn't automatically truth simply because a group has not found a different possible answer that they can all agree upon. Right? I mean, that is accurate thinking, you know. Lack of knowledge or truth or certainty is not the same as a proof of certainty or facts. Something to think on. Consensus cannot be our god. We must cherish truth, whatever it is, whomever has to eat humble pie in the end. Consensus must not be the goal of science or else knowledge will inevitably be kicked into a corner whenever enough people fail to see it or understand it.


Bingo...
Quoting 376. Naga5000:



What a load of crap.

1) The consensus isn't used to promote AGW, it is used to promote the fact there is no credible alternative theory.

2) What standard? The one you choose to use? No the standard, defined by the discipline is the entirety of the system, especially considering most of the warming goes into the oceans. Your argument here is a straw man.

3) Again, surface temperature may be what laypeople use, but it is not the standard. Maybe your inability to grasp the science is rooted in your inability to understand this.

4) I don't have a biased approach, I have used the standard interpretation as defined by every single major scientific organization in the world. You are using a non standard, biased standpoint.

5) You deny the science of global warming, therefore, you are a science denier. It's not unprofessional, I study science denial...your aggregate group is people who think vaccines cause autism, people who think GMO foods have negative health impacts, people who think vitamin K shots contribute to autism. You should think about that, there is an entire part of a discipline devoted to studying the very thing you engage in. Unprofessional? quite the opposite.




We can focus on this outright lie for starters...

Even you acknowledge that you "may" be biased...

Sep 5 2014 4:14pm
"I may have a biased position as well. I am currently in graduate school for Sociology and studying science denial."

1:54 am GMT Sep 17, 2014
I'm about as "pro-AGW" as they get on WU,
Quoting 376. Naga5000:



What a load of crap.

1) The consensus isn't used to promote AGW, it is used to promote the fact there is no credible alternative theory.

2) What standard? The one you choose to use? No the standard, defined by the discipline is the entirety of the system, especially considering most of the warming goes into the oceans. Your argument here is a straw man.

3) Again, surface temperature may be what laypeople use, but it is not the standard. Maybe your inability to grasp the science is rooted in your inability to understand this.

4) I don't have a biased approach, I have used the standard interpretation as defined by every single major scientific organization in the world. You are using a non standard, biased standpoint.

5) You deny the science of global warming, therefore, you are a science denier. It's not unprofessional, I study science denial...your aggregate group is people who think vaccines cause autism, people who think GMO foods have negative health impacts, people who think vitamin K shots contribute to autism. You should think about that, there is an entire part of a discipline devoted to studying the very thing you engage in. Unprofessional? quite the opposite.




This is hilarious to be honest. No one (should) deny that there is anthroprogenic influence on the climate, I question the magnitude and catastrophic label that has been political intertwined into this topic. To even imply that I am somehow the equivalent of a Nazi holocaust denier is shameful at the very least, especially considering we are talking about a scientific theory after all, which is in of itself, far from any "truths" @ which I'm somehow denying. By poorly labeling me with a socialistic catch-all term, you have entirely moved the discussion, once again away from any actual science and right into politics, if you don't think that's unprofessional, you have issues...
Quoting 375. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, they're moving onshore in Largo's area. He doesn't need any more rain up there.

Down in my area the rain shield is still working.

0.0" in the past 24 hours.
yeah raining real good here and Lots of thunder etc...local met says this may go on for days here..whew.
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah raining real good here and Lots of thunder etc...local met says this may go on for days here..whew.


If we could just get some of that down here. We're 13-14" behind normal for the year.

12Z NAM at 84 hours brings even more heavy rain into the area. At least it's showing S.W. Flordia getting in on the action.

Quoting 384. Sfloridacat5:



If we could just get some of that down here. We're 13-14" behind normal for the year.

12Z NAM at 84 hours brings even more heavy rain into the area. At least it's showing S.W. Flordia getting in on the action.


I hope you folks get rain too..we were down 8-9 inches but i think we have or will this week..catch up on the deficit...good luck down there
Quoting LargoFl:
I hope you folks get rain too..we were down 8-9 inches but i think we have or will this week..catch up on the deficit...good luck down there


Rain's breaking out all over the place so I might get some today.

I'm starting to see some development just S.W. of Fort Myers out in the GOM.
I need the rain to go just south of Fort Myers to hit my location.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
101 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172 >174-221915-
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAHOKEE...SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...
WELLINGTON...LION COUNTRY SAFARI...SOUTH COUNTY REGIONAL PARK...
PALM SPRINGS...FLORIDA GARDENS...ABERDEEN...BOCA WEST...
MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...MARKHAM PARK...COCONUT CREEK...
CORAL SPRINGS...TAMARAC...SUNRISE...PLANTATION...DAVIE.. .
COOPER CITY...HOLLYWOOD...PEMBROKE PINES...MIRAMAR...HOMESTEAD...
FLORIDA CITY...REDLAND...MICCOSUKEE RESORT...KENDALE LAKES...
WEST KENDALL...COUNTRY WALK...SHARK VALLEY...MIAMI...
MIAMI GARDENS...MIAMI LAKES...HIALEAH...DORAL...SOUTH MIAMI...
KENDALL...CUTLER RIDGE...JUPITER...WEST PALM BEACH...BOCA RATON...
POMPANO BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE...FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH...
HOLLYWOOD BEACH...AVENTURA...MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI SHORES...
DOWNTOWN MIAMI...CUTLER BAY...HOMESTEAD BAYFRONT PARK...
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK
101 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.NOW...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. CURRENTLY
THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS ARE NORTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY AND CENTRAL
PALM BEACH COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WILL PRODUCE BRIEF AND AT TIMES HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS TO
NEAR 30 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
check out the North west..wow......................................... .....................................
Keep an eye on the complex of unsettled weather over Central Africa, I think there is going to be an upsurge of moisture in combination with the monsoon trough that will spark a low pressure area near the Cape Verde Islands in 5 days.