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2014: Hottest Year in Recorded Human History

By: Jeff Masters 5:05 PM GMT on January 16, 2015

Earth had its warmest year on record in 2014, said NOAA and NASA at a joint press conference today. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, global surface temperatures in 2014 were 1.24°F (0.69°C) above the 20th century average, highest among all years in the 1880-2014 record, easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.07°F (0.04°C). Using independent measurement techniques but mostly the same set of surface stations, NASA also rated 2014 as the warmest year on record, as did the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The other widely-cited global temperature measurement, from the UK Met Office, has not yet been released for 2014. Because there are variations in how each group handles the Arctic and other data-sparse areas, there are slight differences in the "top ten" lists of warmest years produced by each group. However, 2014 is the first year since 2005 that has topped the temperature charts for both NASA and NOAA.


Figure 1. Earth's departure in temperature from the 20th century average during the period 1880 - 2014, according to NOAA.

Including 2014, nine out of ten of the warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred during the 21st century (2001–2014), with 1998 (4th warmest year on record) rounding out the top ten. Global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record during 2014, and ocean temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 3rd or 6th warmest in the 36-year record, according to UAH and RSS, respectively. The year 2014 joined 2012 and 2013 as having near-average precipitation on balance across the globe.


Figure 2. Departure of global temperature from average for 2014. Record warmth was spread around the world, including Far East Russia into western Alaska, the western United States, parts of interior South America, most of Europe stretching into northern Africa, parts of eastern and western coastal Australia, much of the northeastern Pacific around the Gulf of Alaska, the central to western equatorial Pacific, large swaths of northwestern and southeastern Atlantic, most of the Norwegian Sea, and parts of the central to southern Indian Ocean. The only land areas cooler than average were the Central U.S. and the southern tip of South America; no land areas were record cold. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

New record set without an El Niño event
The new temperature record in 2014 was not a “cheap” record—it was set without an official El Niño event. The previous three hottest years on record—2010, 2005, and 1998—were all characterized by an El Niño event at the beginning of the year, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. During an El Niño event, warm water in the equatorial Pacific can warm the global surface temperature by 0.1°C or more, making global temperature records more likely. Admittedly, El Niño-like conditions began developing in June 2014, and the threshold for a weak El Niño event was reached in October and maintained through December. However, since there is lag of about 2 - 4 months between the emergence of El Nino conditions and the impact of this warm water on global surface temperatures (Foster and Rahmstorf, 2011), the emergence of El Niño-like conditions late in 2014 did not have a big impact on global surface temperatures. Moreover, January - March of 2014 featured weak La Niña-like conditions in the Eastern Pacific, with cooler-than-average ocean waters that helped depress global temperatures well into the summer.
 

Figure 3. The global departure of temperature from average from 1965 - 2014, binned by whether or not the year was classified as an El Niño, La Niña, or neutral. 2014 was by far the hottest "neutral" year on record, and the first year since 1990 to set a record without influence from El Niño. Image credit: skepticalscience.com.

UK Met Office forecasts another global temperature record in 2015
What about the new year? The UK Met Office predicts that 2015 is likely to top 2014. Assuming that the Met Office's final numbers for 2014 agree with NASA and NOAA on a global record, this forecast would make 2015 the second record-setting year in a row. The last time we saw consecutive global highs was in 1997 and 1998, when the strongest El Niño event on record gave a major boost to both years (see NOAA’s ENSO dataset). The previous pair of back-to-back record-setters was 1987 and 1988, again bolstered by El Niño conditions. A useful analog for our current situation may be 1980 and 1981. In those two years, new global highs were set without the benefit of any El Niño event. What’s more, the early 1980s marked the beginning of a dramatic rise in global atmospheric temperature that spanned nearly two decades. The rate of global warming since 2000 has been slower than in the 1980s and 1990s, but could back-to-back warmest years on record in 2014 and potentially in 2015 signal the end of this slow-down? Next week, Bob Henson will discuss new research presented at last week's American Meteorological Society meeting pertaining to this subject.

Commentary
The fact that separate analyses by three major research groups rated 2014 as the warmest year on record should put to rest the bogus idea often espoused by climate change deniers that "global warming stopped in 1998." Based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that humans are primarily responsible for the warming of the planet to the record levels observed in 2014. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. New research is painting a clearer picture of the tough decisions that lie ahead if we hope to reduce the serious risks that we and our planet face. As we approach the critical negotiations in Paris in December to hammer out a new binding climate change treaty, we should keep in mind that we can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 496. Sfloridacat5:




NWS-New Orleans discussed the ECMWF vs. GFS in regards to potential precip in their long-term discussion this morning, so you might get some rain after all:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
330 am CST Sat Jan 17 2015

Synopsis...

High pressure ridge at the surface extends from Quebec to the
Mississippi coast. A surface low over Minnesota has a trailing
cold front into the Texas Panhandle. A good bit of cirrus moving
across the area...but it appears that back edge of the main cloud
shield will pass to the east of the area prior to sunrise. Airmass
is extremely dry below the cirrus shield with precipitable water
of 0.25 inch on the 00z sounding. Temperatures have radiated
fairly well with most temperatures at 3 am in the 30s. The main
exceptions are right along the Louisiana coast and the South Shore
of Lake Pontchartrain.

&&

Short term...

High pressure will continue to move eastward today. A shortwave
moving through the Great Lakes will drag a cold front through the
area late tonight and Sunday morning. There is no moisture
associated with this front...and may not even be able to stir up
much in the way of clouds at lower levels of the atmosphere.
High pressure of Pacific origin will move eastward behind the
front and track along the Gulf Coast Sunday and Monday. A weak
shortwave will track along the Gulf Coast Monday night into
Tuesday. A little more moisture will be available with some cloud
cover. Most or all precipitation associated with this feature will
remain offshore.

Temperatures today look to be about 5 degrees warmer than Friday
with temperatures near normal tonight. The Pacific origin of the
high behind Sunday mornings front will allow temperatures to warm
from current levels for Sunday and Monday highs. The dry air will
keep low temperatures near or a little below normal through
Monday. Most of the temperature guidance is pretty consistent
through Monday...and will accept a blend. 35

&&

Long term...

Beyond Tuesday...European model (ecmwf) and GFS solutions begin to diverge on
timing and strength...as well as which of the northern stream or
southern stream impulses becomes the controlling feature.
European model (ecmwf)...southern stream solution...appears to have better
continuity between runs...and have opted to go with a blend
weighted toward the European model (ecmwf) solution. This required a bump up in
probability of precipitation on Thursday and Thursday night to high chance/likely probability of precipitation.
This also fits better with neighboring solutions. Precipitation
could linger into Friday and Friday night across southern portions
of the area. Note...if the GFS solution were to become
preferred...rain chances would need to be decreased considerably
for Thursday and Friday.


Cooler temperatures expected behind Tuesday cold front will keep
high temperatures about 5 degrees below normal for the second half
of next week.

A Bad Day for Climate Change Deniers And the Planet
Jeffrey Kluger @jeffreykluger Jan. 16, 2015


Jeffrey Kluger is Editor at Large for TIME.

Three new studies offer new proof of how bad the earth's fever has gotten


It's not often that the climate change deniers get clobbered three times in just two days. But that's what happened with the release of a trio of new studies that ought to serve as solid body blows to the fading but persistent fiction that human-mediated warming is somehow a hoax. Good news for the forces of reason, however, is bad news for the planet especially the oceans.


The most straightforward of the three studies was a report from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirming what a lot of people who sweltered through 2014 already suspected: the year is entering the record books as the hottest ever since reliable records started being kept in 2014 and the results weren't even close.

Average global surface temperature worldwide was 58.24 F (14.58 C) surpassing previous records set in 2005 and 2007 and making 2014 a full 2F (1.1 C) hotter than the average for the entire 20th century. And before you say 2F doesn't seem like much, think about whether you'd prefer to run a fever of 99 or 101. The planet is every bit as sensitive to small variations as you are.

Today's news is a clear and undeniable warning for all of us that we need to cut climate pollution and prepare for what's coming, said Lou Leonard, vice president for climate change at the World Wildlife Fund.

When it concerns the ocean, what's coming may already be here. A sobering study in Nature looked at sea level rise in both the periods from 1901 to 1990 and from 1993 to 2010 in an attempt to sort out a seeming inconsistency: measurements from 622 tide gauges around the world showed that levels had risen 6 in. (15.24 cm) over the past century, but computer models and other tools put the figure at only 5 in. (12.7 cm). Here too, what seems like a little is actually a lot: a single inch of water spread around all of the planet's oceans and seas represents two quadrillion gallons of water.
It does seem odd to cough up an image of northern hemisphere snow/ice cover on a single day halfway through January 2015 to refute worldwide average temperature over the entire year of 2014. Unless you're trying to push an agenda, I guess.

Quoting 485. LAbonbon:



Have no clue why you chose to post an image from the middle of winter, and an image from 2015, to somehow represent what 2014 looks like...but here's a side-by-side of summer and winter. What does it mean? It simply means summer still happens, as does winter.

Quoting 500. Patrap:

When providing strong feelings in a emoted post, we always add the referenced link here.

U should try dat too.

It is EZ as Cake




Did you have some king cake w/ that Mardi Gras eggnog? 'Cause that would be delicious...

Beautiful day here in the Red Stick...it's looking to be a really pretty weekend.
GFS going out 234 hours. It still tries to put a dry spot over S.W. Fl.
With only a .5" of precipitation in 53 days, it's a pretty safe bet to forecast dry weather for the area (at least in the short term).
Naples,Fl. only .35" in the past 51 days.

Quoting 495. Patrap:

Ignorance is bliss so dey say.


Actual Link to the South Pole Station



Yet the temperature at the South Pole refutes all the data showing loss of antarctic land ice year after year. It's science.
507. jpsb
Quoting 498. Patrap:

The odds of this Warmest year being natural was 27,000,000 to One.

I sometimes have a hard time deciding if you're serious or just making silly comments for fun.


Somehow that does not strike me as odd, but the irony is over dee top bro'

Enjoy your dessert.
I've seen that figure thrown about but I don't understand how it was arrived at

"Probability is simply a representation of the chance that a given outcome will happen. This is found by dividing the number of desired outcomes over the total number of possible outcomes."


So you are telling me that there were 27,000,000 possible out comes (27,000,000 possible global temperatures) and that the NASA/NOAA temperature was the desired temperature? The 1 in 27 million?

Just for grins let's ignore the satellite temperature record (which did not find anything remarkable about 2014) and say 8 of the last 10 years have been the warmest on record. Well if you believe as I and more then a few others that climate is cyclical and we are in a warming cycle then there is nothing out of the ordinary with recent global temps. Certainly nothing close to a 27 million to 1 probability. Yall are assuming that climate is radon, some years are hot some years are cold and while there is some truth to that one must remember that cycles in climate happen. Yeah you can have some warm years in a cooling cycle and vise versa but the trend is still warming/cooling depending of the prevailing cycle.
Definitely a January thaw this weekend across most of the U.S.
Er, yer math is flawed .

Sowwy, maybe try the Fancy Smancy I-Phone calculator.

There is less than a 1-in-27 million chance that Earth's record hot streak is natural

Long odds that this isn't due to global warming
Nine of the ten warmest years have occurred since the year 2000, with 13 of the 15 hottest years on record globally all occurring during just the past 15 years, based on NOAA data.

The odds of this happening by chance — that is, rather than due to a combination of manmade pollution and natural climate variability — are less than 1-in-27 million, according to the climate research and journalism group Climate Central. Without global warming, one would expect warm and cold years to occur randomly over that period.

A separate analysis from the University of South Carolina and cited by the Associated Press found that the odds that nine out of the 10 warmest years would occur in the past decade by chance alone are about 650 million to 1.


Seems their own documentation contradicts the opinion here. See for yourselves.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13/supp lemental/page-1
Quoting 455. yoboi:



Almost six months ahead of the 2015 hurricane season, a Florida-based company is predicting a very active season. See PRESS RELEASE below:

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says, “The 2015 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years, and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years”.

CEO David Dilley says GWO has issued “the most accurate predictions of any organization 6 years running, and GWO is the only organization to predict the correct number of hurricanes in 2014 and that an El Niño would not form.”

Link


Lol, nice!

What do Americans think about global warming?
Tony Leiserowitz can tell you. It’s not what you might expect.
By Neela Banerjee | Jan/Feb 2015
Neela Banerjee ’86 covers energy and environmental issues for the Los Angeles Times.



“The perception among many in the media, in politics, and so on—that you can’t talk about this because half the country is against you?—it’s false, it’s wrong,” Leiserowitz said, his voice rising slightly. “It’s only 15 percent. They’re a really loud 15 percent, and they have convinced much of the country it’s not safe to talk about it, but it’s just not true.”

Leiserowitz’s certainty comes from a decade’s worth of research that reveals a far more nuanced picture of American attitudes toward climate change than previously thought—or even widely held now, for that matter.

The Yale Project on Climate Change Communication digs deeply into public attitudes toward climate change, mapping the public mind and exploring why Americans think the way they do. One of the project’s most far-reaching findings: the American public is not divided evenly between those who accept climate change and those who don’t. Rather, there is a range of views that can be captured in six categories—what the Yale Project and its partner, the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, call “Global Warming’s Six Americas.” According to their research, about 66 percent of Americans think global warming is happening. Only 16 percent of Americans say it is not happening, according to an October 2014 national survey.
Overnight runs of the GFS had some beautiful snowstorms and serious cold for the East Coast as we enter February. If only it were in the short term.
515. jpsb
Time for lunch see yall later
Quoting 498. Patrap:

The odds of this Warmest year being natural was 27,000,000 to One.

I've seen that figure thrown about but I don't understand how it was arrived at


That's kinda like saying I don't understand the number thirty, cause I only have ten fingers and ten toes, and that only goes up to twenty.
Quoting 514. jpsb:


Asserting that climate is random is incorrect. Climate is not random, climate is cyclical. And there are cycles within cycles.









Quoting 509. Patrap:
Without global warming, one would expect warm and cold years to occur randomly over that period.
<
U incorrectly gave me a quote Bro, your quoting the linked article I posted, I did not write it.

Try to be specific next time,OK?


Alone with disconnection
And not a lonesome word
I reach out to the radio
And the clinically disturbed
"Give it up," the man says
Surrender and be saved
He'll drive away your demons
His help is on the way

Turn it up

Oh turn it up!
Ahhhhh, ahhhhh...

Quoting 514. jpsb:




Asserting that climate is random is incorrect. Climate is not random, climate is cyclical. And there are cycles within cycles.








Patrap is speaking of a fifteen year period, not a hundred thousand year period.
AGAIN with the graphic from the self-titled 'climatologist? I could call myself 'Lady', 'Princess', or 'Doctor', yet none of it would be true.

That second graphic is meaningless; there is no scale on the y-axis. This is one of the worst examples of pseudo-science that the blog is repeatedly spammed with.

And no one denies climate has cycles. No one.

It is man's input to climate that is worrisome.
Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says, “The 2015 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years, and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years”


last year he predicted 17/8/3
Quoting 521. ricderr:

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says, “The 2015 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years, and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years”


last year he predicted 17/8/3


I'm lost inside America
I'm turning inside out
I'm turning into someone else
I heard so much about
I'm blinded by the neon
The righteous and the might

I'm stuck inside the radio
Turn it on and let me out
Quoting 514. jpsb:




Asserting that climate is random is incorrect. Climate is not random, climate is cyclical. And there are cycles within cycles.








First off, the bottom chart is meaningless, has no scale, and no data - it's a fanciful illustration and nothing more (and it's been debunked already once in this comment thread, let alone all the other times it's been posted).

As for the first diagram, what do you think the relevance of showing long-term climate cycles caused by orbital variations (i.e. Milankovitch forcings) is when compared to the modern trends?
HINT: if we're looking at Milankovitch forcings as drivers, they'd be on a cooling trend right now-- same with solar output, another potential driver that's been examined and discarded. That means something else is driving the climate bus; and if it's somehow not CO2, then we've got to re-write the Laws of Thermodynamics and redo about 200 years' worth of basic physics and chemistry. Good luck with that, and please show your work for full credit.
Hello everyone! Haven't been on much lately.

I see we're arguing as usual. Awesome! May your keyboards be well dusted and your sources be plentiful.
Chedza



Quoting 521. ricderr:

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane cycle prediction company, says, %u201CThe 2015 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will be the most active and dangerous in at least 3 years, and the next 3 seasons will be the most dangerous in 10 years%u201D


last year he predicted 17/8/3
lol..To me thats better than a forecast like - This year between 5 and 15 named storms , between 3 and 9 hurricanes , and between 1 and 4 major hurricanes.....a forecast like that has little or no value..jmo
Mekkhala

Quoting 524. CybrTeddy:

Hello everyone! Haven't been on much lately.

I see we're arguing as usual. Awesome! May your keyboards be well dusted and your sources be plentiful.


Correcting idiocy and lies is not arguing ct, its correcting idiocy and lies.

Arguing here is saved for the Trendy GFS model pushers and other monomania styles of,er...Blogging.

Is it a wet or dry season there today, since it is Saturday?

TIA.

Understand Why:
Mainstream hurricane forecasters got it wrong last year!
Our hurricane forecast got it right for the past 9 years!
Our US hurricane forecast has been 90% accurate since 2006
Certain areas are at a higher risk of land fall


this is what GWO is currently saying about themselves........i particularity like that even though last year they predicted 17 storms and we only received 8...they've been right for the past 9 years...i think they must be run by a certain WU blogger
ol..To me thats better than a forecast like - This year between 5 and 15 named storms , between 3 and 9 hurricanes , and between 1 and 4 major hurricanes.....a forecast like that has little or no value..jmo


i agree also....one group last year gave themselves a 60 percent margin of error
Likewise, the first graph is missing information.

Quoting 523. schistkicker:



First off, the bottom chart is meaningless, has no scale, and no data - it's a fanciful illustration and nothing more (and it's been debunked already once in this comment thread, let alone all the other times it's been posted).

As for the first diagram, what do you think the relevance of showing long-term climate cycles caused by orbital variations (i.e. Milankovitch forcings) is when compared to the modern trends?
HINT: if we're looking at Milankovitch forcings as drivers, they'd be on a cooling trend right now-- same with solar output, another potential driver that's been examined and discarded. That means something else is driving the climate bus; and if it's somehow not CO2, then we've got to re-write the Laws of Thermodynamics and redo about 200 years' worth of basic physics and chemistry. Good luck with that, and please show your work for full credit.
Is it a wet or dry season there today, since it is Saturday?


oh yes...it's deifinetly dry season on saturdays....well...that is unless the euro shows different......errr...i mean the long range euro.....shortwave models are useless
*sigh* There are days I really feel like I'm repeating myself...

For those of you purportedly posting "science" here, the argument is long over, and there's no productive purpose to continuing it. The basic physics, chemistry, and mathematics have proven beyond any reasonable doubt that (1) that CO2 increases in the atmosphere have trapped excess solar radiation at the surface of our planet in the form of heat, (2) these CO2 increases are the primary result of human activities via the burning of fossil fuels, and (3) the increase in trapped solar radiation is causing our planet to warm at an accelerated rate leading to faster-than-normal climate changes across the globe.

None of these facts are in doubt, and each are backed by substantial peer-reviewed data that has survived countless reviews and raking over the coals by politicians and pundits. Anyone still debating these facts in their entirety are WAY behind on their understanding of the science behind global warming. Put simply, there is no further excuse for continued global warming denialism by any rational individual once exposed to the truth that REAL science and mathematics provide. And if, in fact, you want the REAL science behind the fingerprint of humans on the rising CO2, it's is very clear, and it's 50-100 times that of natural volcanic origin. The evidence is:

(1) Measurements of the CO2 output from both volcanoes and fossil fuel burning show that fossil fuel burning far exceeds that of present-day volcanoes. (Link)

(2) The increase in atmospheric CO2 is proportional to a decrease in atmospheric O2, which shows that the CO2 is being created from combustion. (Link)

(3) The carbon isotope signature of the CO2 shows an increase in 12C, which comes from living organisms. There's NO relevant increase in 13C, which comes from melting rocks (volcanoes), and NO increase in 14C, which comes from recently dead living organisms. Therefore, the carbon in CO2 is coming from once living organisms that have been dead for a very long time… aka fossil fuels. (Link)

I've posted it before, and I'll post it again. Dr. Richard Alley says it best:

Why was the climate getting cooler until 1910? What was happening 150+ years ago?
Quoting 514. jpsb:




Asserting that climate is random is incorrect. Climate is not random, climate is cyclical. And there are cycles within cycles.







Nice chart on the bottom, really gives some context to where we are now. I don't see how people can differentiate man made climate change causation that much from natural cycles.
536. SLU
2014: Hottest Year in Recorded Human History

I don't get this:

"Recorded Human history" goes back ten of thousands if not millions of years depending on your perspective. Reliable temperate records go back to 1880. Only 135 years. So how can one claim that 2014 is the "hottest year in recorded human history"?

Obviously this paradigm is an agenda being pushed and we people need to realise what's being thrown at us more objectively.



"If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be research"
Quoting 535. opal92nwf:


Nice chart on the bottom, really gives some context to where we are now. I don't see how people can differentiate man made climate change causation that much from natural cycles.


I don't understand how you can look at that chart and say, "that's a good chart" when it has zero scientific credibility, no temperature scale, and is not accurate in the least bit. It's pure make believe.

Edit: We differentiate between man made and natural because we can measure forcings. We know how much energy comes in, how much goes out, and what energy gets trapped. It's really quite simple.
# 536

Maybe try actually reading the first paragraph again, s-l-o-w-l-y.


yer interpt is sadly wrong..
Quoting 534. nickharger:

Why was the climate getting cooler until 1910? What was happening 150+ years ago?


The slow, inexorable drop in global temperatures that comes from orbital mechanics driving us into the next glacial period.
Quoting 536. SLU:

2014: Hottest Year in Recorded Human History

I don't get this:

"Recorded Human history" goes back ten of thousands if not millions of years depending on your perspective. Reliable temperate records go back to 1880. Only 135 years. So how can one claim that 2014 is the "hottest year in recorded human history"?

Obviously this paradigm is an agenda being pushed and we people need to realise what's being thrown at us more objectively.


"If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be research"


Wait, we have records for 135...we have literally RECORDED global temperature for 135 years, that would be recorded human history. If we want to take that further, global temperature reconstructions go back about 22,000 years now, we are still the hottest currently than any point in those past 22,000 years.

As for your initial comment...I wasn't aware of any humans around millions of years ago...but then again, I just don't go around making unsubstantiated claims.
Quoting 535. opal92nwf:


Nice chart on the bottom, really gives some context to where we are now. I don't see how people can differentiate man made climate change causation that much from natural cycles.


Seriously?

Really?

Can you show us the authors work too....?

We shall be waiting anxiously for it.

Thanx Bro'

P.S. its a illustration, no science is there.
Creeping up on 80 degrees across inland S.W. Fl.

Nice, I'll take these....
so far this winter rain storms hitting the northeast no big snow storm yet!!

The rain will also be heavy at times as moisture is drawn northward bringing the risk of nuisance local flooding from the eastern North Carolina to parts of eastern and southern New England, depending on the low track. Frozen ground in the Northeast may exacerbate runoff from the soaking rain.

Most locations will see less than an inch of rain but some areas could see up to 2 inches.
@RyanMaue
New GFS model has been cooking for only a few days & it's extended range forecasts are already legendary #iceage

Driving around in Tropical Storm Amang Mekkhala in Biliran

Published on Jan 17, 2015
5:50 PM Jan. 17, 2015 Brgy. Atipolo Naval, Biliran.
Quoting critic:
The united states contributes 16 percent to the worlds CO2 China contributes 24 percent and we sign an agreement to cut co2 pollution by 20+ percent by curbing existing coal fired power plants while agreeing to allow China to build one new coal fired power plant a day. Are we trying to commit economic self destruction by signing treaties which kill American jobs while empowering our competitors.
Yet another unnecessarily alarmist statement. Why so many, I wonder...

At any rate, while China does indeed bring a new coal-fired power plant online every four or five days, it also erects a new wind turbine every 95 minutes or so. Too, China controls a third of the global solar industry market, while its automobile fuel efficiency standards are more strict than ours. IOW, that nation is struggling to drag its economy into the modern ages, and doing the best they can with what they have. Are they perfect? Far, far from it; those coal plants are a growing disaster. But that nation's leaders, more so than out own esteemed Congress, overall understand the unsustainability of the current paradigm, and they're rushing to figure it out--and they're definitely not sitting around trying to convince one another that global warming isn't happening and isn't a problem.

(Too, it might help to remember that China's population is 4.2 imes that of the US's, so per capita CO2 usage is probably a more fair and honest way to compare fossil fuel consumption.)
The united states contributes 16 percent to the worlds CO2 China contributes 24 percent and we sign an agreement to cut co2 pollution by 20+ percent by curbing existing coal fired power plants while agreeing to allow China to build one new coal fired power plant a day. Are we trying to commit economic self destruction by signing treaties which kill American jobs while empowering our competitors.


check you out critic........grabbed you a name so you could cut up wu about agw........

before we go into the last sentence of your post...let's look at china which is still in many senses an emerging country....did you know...they are the fastest growing user of nuclear and alternative energy.....also.....they're working on taking coal and turning it into liquid or gas before burning it which reduces carbon.....so...to your last sentence....one thing i have yet to see....is what the net loss of jobs will be as we create new jobs in these new energy fields.....and if you really want to see economic destruction....allow china to become the leader in alternative energy sources while we sit back and do not
Quoting NativeSun:
Both websites offer really good info on the subject, on their views as to what is going on with climate change. So who is right, only time will tell...
Incorrect. Time--well, science, actually--has already told us loudly and clearly that the planet is heating up due to our unimpeded burning of fossil fuels. A small, private weather firm run by conservative ideologues may disagree with that (for obvious reasons), but the overwhelming majority of the planet's climate scientists are firmly in support of the idea, and are screaming from the mountaintops that something needs to be done, and NOW...
P
Quoting 512. Patrap:


What do Americans think about global warming?
Tony Leiserowitz can tell you. It’s not what you might expect.
By Neela Banerjee | Jan/Feb 2015
Neela Banerjee ’86 covers energy and environmental issues for the Los Angeles Times.



“The perception among many in the media, in politics, and so on—that you can’t talk about this because half the country is against you?—it’s false, it’s wrong,” Leiserowitz said, his voice rising slightly. “It’s only 15 percent. They’re a really loud 15 percent, and they have convinced much of the country it’s not safe to talk about it, but it’s just not true.”

Leiserowitz’s certainty comes from a decade’s worth of research that reveals a far more nuanced picture of American attitudes toward climate change than previously thought—or even widely held now, for that matter.

The Yale Project on Climate Change Communication digs deeply into public attitudes toward climate change, mapping the public mind and exploring why Americans think the way they do. One of the project’s most far-reaching findings: the American public is not divided evenly between those who accept climate change and those who don’t. Rather, there is a range of views that can be captured in six categories—what the Yale Project and its partner, the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, call “Global Warming’s Six Americas.” According to their research, about 66 percent of Americans think global warming is happening. Only 16 percent of Americans say it is not happening, according to an October 2014 national survey.
WHAT! Amercan think? Wow, you might need link for that.
Cheers
Qazulight
Worth noting that Malawi & Mozambique are both experiencing flooding that would be included in Billion $ disasters but because the people are so poor and their lives so expendable this disaster will probably not even feature on global weather disasters of note for the year.

BBC has over 100 000 homeless and over 100 dead so far.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30854140
too far out in time But............................................... ..................
Was snowing hard this morning. The son's car has had a dead battery for a while so he was going to drive the old 1 ton to work, but he couldn't get the 1/4 inch of ice off the windshield. So we did the typical Fargo thing, we left it running and went back in the house ate breakfast. I thought about taking him to work in the Mini-Cooper but it was so slick I could barely stand up, I just didn't see driving an over powered roller skate in those conditions.
Now, it is 40 and the sun is out and the snow is melting, I think t is as warm here as in Deep East Texas. I probably need to go for a nice long walk.
Cheers
Qazulight

Quoting 555. LargoFl:

too far out in time But............................................... ..................

0z had this:



6z had this:



All the fun stuff happens in fantasy land. Which one or all of those would come to fruition.
Quoting 545. hurricanes2018:

so far this winter rain storms hitting the northeast no big snow storm yet!!





Some of the storm tracks have been too far west so the coldest air is farther inland, which means coastal rain. Don't worry, winter's only half over. I've been hearing talk of another huge cold snap but that's too far out to know for sure.
Quoting 551. ricderr:

The united states contributes 16 percent to the worlds CO2 China contributes 24 percent and we sign an agreement to cut co2 pollution by 20 percent by curbing existing coal fired power plants while agreeing to allow China to build one new coal fired power plant a day. Are we trying to commit economic self destruction by signing treaties which kill American jobs while empowering our competitors.


check you out critic........grabbed you a name so you could cut up wu about agw........

before we go into the last sentence of your post...let's look at china which is still in many senses an emerging country....did you know...they are the fastest growing user of nuclear and alternative energy.....also.....they're working on taking coal and turning it into liquid or gas before burning it which reduces carbon.....so...to your last sentence....one thing i have yet to see....is what the net loss of jobs will be as we create new jobs in these new energy fields.....and if you really want to see economic destruction....allow china to become the leader in alternative energy sources while we sit back and do not
Yep..And China has over 3x,s the population of the U.S. , so they actually produce considerably less Co2 if one looks at it from that perspective. edit..Actually its 1.356 Billion as Nea stated earlier..I was guessing.
The US needs to wait until everybody else does something about GHGs before we do anything at all. It's called 'leadership'.

Quoting 544. critic:

The united states contributes 16 percent to the worlds CO2 China contributes 24 percent and we sign an agreement to cut co2 pollution by 20+ percent by curbing existing coal fired power plants while agreeing to allow China to build one new coal fired power plant a day. Are we trying to commit economic self destruction by signing treaties which kill American jobs while empowering our competitors.
Quoting 557. TropicalAnalystwx13:


0z had this:



6z had this:



All the fun stuff happens in fantasy land. Which one or all of those would come to fruition.
Did the GFS drop the 24-25th threat?
where we stand


Yep..And China has over 3x,s the population of the U.S. , so they actually produce considerably less Co2 if one looks at it from that perspective.

exactly!!!!!
Quoting 514. jpsb:




Asserting that climate is random is incorrect. Climate is not random, climate is cyclical. And there are cycles within cycles.








It has been very common in all branches of physical and social science to search for cycles in noisy time series that ultimately turn out to be random, ours included. There are cycles driven by known orbital variations and there are other cycles not described yet in science which we do not understand. However there is also a random element in variation which can look cyclical by chance for some number of apparent periods before breaking down. An example of something dynamic meteorologists got wrong is the index cycle work in the late 50s and early 60s where we alternated between periods of high index (strong westerlies, weak progressive perturbations) and low index, (weak westerlies, strong purturbations and blocking and strange looking patterns). Attempts to find periodicity in this cycle were initially promising but ultimately failed and today our science is focusing on more dynamic explanations for variations, e.g what drives the arctic oscillation, PNA patterns and NAO (ENSO is longer period and determines seasonal regimes more than fluctuations).

Amidst all the thrills and spills of endless excitement with the hottest record year ever.

Has anybody commented and noticed just how warm the SSTs are in the Gulf this year for the middle of January?

Link

Sort of interesting from a casual observers point of view.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:17 PM PST on January 17, 2015
Clear
77.5 °F / 25.3 °C
Clear
Heat Index: 77 °F / 25 °C
Humidity: 17%
Dew Point: 29 °F / -2 °C
Wind: 2.0 mph / 3.2 km/h / 0.9 m/s from the NNW
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph / 6.4 km/h
Pressure: 30.09 in / 1019 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1070 ft / 326 m
Nice here today, close to forecast.
The most important news story I'll link this year:

'Sharknado 3': Tara Reid, Ian Ziering all signed up
Quoting 537. Naga5000:



I don't understand how you can look at that chart and say, "that's a good chart" when it has zero scientific credibility, no temperature scale, and is not accurate in the least bit. It's pure make believe.

Edit: We differentiate between man made and natural because we can measure forcings. We know how much energy comes in, how much goes out, and what energy gets trapped. It's really quite simple.

Naga, I know you nicely try to "show me the way" and I appreciate your civility with me, but I still stand unmoved. I just simply believe that the "science" used to support CC/GW is skewed and much lying is done. This is something I cannot prove, but still you get a inkling here and there: like those papers that were leaked..............
Quoting 552. Neapolitan:

Incorrect. Time--well, science, actually--has already told us loudly and clearly that the planet is heating up due to our unimpeded burning of fossil fuels. A small, private weather firm run by conservative ideologues may disagree with that (for obvious reasons), but the overwhelming majority of the planet's climate scientists are firmly in support of the idea, and are screaming from the mountaintops that something needs to be done, and NOW...

Common sense tells us its probably too late.
A bit like trying to stop a train running over a cliff, you cant.
Best get on with the plans for the salvege, if it isnt too badly fire damaged, that is!
571. yoboi
Quoting 537. Naga5000:



I don't understand how you can look at that chart and say, "that's a good chart" when it has zero scientific credibility, no temperature scale, and is not accurate in the least bit. It's pure make believe.

Edit: We differentiate between man made and natural because we can measure forcings. We know how much energy comes in, how much goes out, and what energy gets trapped. It's really quite simple.


IDK...if it was so simple seem like they would get a forecast correct more than the 9 % of the time.....failed computer models....Heck I would settle for getting a 3 day forecast correct.....predicting weather for the year 2100...well it's still at the magic stage....Maybe someday we will get there.....but we have many many yrs before that happens......
At the level of being reduced to raving tonight a bit but with the SSTs off the south west coast of Mexico being at about +30/C, (86/F,) for mid January, is there not at least a slight possibility of at least a nasty storm deveolping there if not something a lot more intence?

Link

How do I post the picture/chart to make it look even more convinceing as the link may not be enough.
Quoting 572. PlazaRed:

At the level of being reduced to raving tonight a bit but with the SSTs off the south west coast of Mexico being at about +30/C, (86/F,) for mid January, is there not at least a slight possibility of at least a nasty storm deveolping there if not something a lot more intence?

Link

How do I post the picture/chart to make it look even more convinceing as the link may not be enough.



Easy - just right click the image, click 'copy image URL', then click the image icon below the comment box, paste the URL, and preview to make sure it shows.
Quoting 568. BaltimoreBrian:

The most important news story I'll link this year:

'Sharknado 3': Tara Reid, Ian Ziering all signed up


From that article..

Sharknado 2: The Second One became Syfys most-watched original movie ever with 3.9 million total viewers.
Let's talk 2015 Atlantic hurricane season! How are north Atlantic sst's looking and what are you guys predictions in activity? What do long range forecast models show in activity?
Quoting 575. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Let's talk 2015 Atlantic hurricane season! How are north Atlantic sst's looking and what are you guys predictions in activity? What do long range forecast models show in activity?

I've given up blindly speculating, but the only thing I will say is that Florida's time before a hurricane landfall is hanging by a thread.
Here we go!



Maybe it will work?
Thank you.
Anyway its still very warm down in the western regions of the Mexican coasts and I for one think its very odd!
Quoting 567. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:17 PM PST on January 17, 2015
Clear
77.5 °F / 25.3 °C
Clear
Heat Index: 77 °F / 25 °C
Humidity: 17%
Dew Point: 29 °F / -2 °C
Wind: 2.0 mph / 3.2 km/h / 0.9 m/s from the NNW
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph / 6.4 km/h
Pressure: 30.09 in / 1019 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1070 ft / 326 m
Nice here today, close to forecast.


Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 0 sec ago


Overcast

Overcast


33.1 °F

Feels Like 27 °F







N

7.4

Wind from SE
Gusts 9.8 mph
Quoting 569. opal92nwf:


Naga, I know you nicely try to "show me the way" and I appreciate your civility with me, but I still stand unmoved. I just simply believe that the "science" used to support CC/GW is skewed and much lying is done. This is something I cannot prove, but still you get a inkling here and there: like those papers that were leaked..............


What papers? If you mean the hacked e-mails, multiple investigations revealed no wrong doing whatsoever on the part of the scientists. While I respect your opinion, I don't like it and I don't think it's valid. But then again, when you think there is a conspiracy, you have no evidence to prove it, and all the evidence which shows it's wrong is not believable because it's the basis of the very conspiracy you think is happening, what else is left? You can't fight tautology.
Quoting 571. yoboi:



IDK...if it was so simple seem like they would get a forecast correct more than the 9 % of the time.....failed computer models....Heck I would settle for getting a 3 day forecast correct.....predicting weather for the year 2100...well it's still at the magic stage....Maybe someday we will get there.....but we have many many yrs before that happens......


Is this the best gibberish you can muster anymore?
enjoy the thaw

Quoting 575. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Let's talk 2015 Atlantic hurricane season! How are north Atlantic sst's looking and what are you guys predictions in activity? What do long range forecast models show in activity?
after the last 3 seasons, the enso means absolutely nothing. granted last year the pacific went bonkers and the atlantic did the exact opposite, we haven't had a "true" el nino during hurricane season since 09. not sure what to think. Too much instability since 2012. 3 very slow seasons as a result. If the vertical instability can return to levels prior to 2012, the atlantic could be in for a reboot. I don't see a very strong el nino this summer(probably boderline warm neutral) and I really can't give my prediction until I see what the vertical instability levels are
585. yoboi
Quoting 582. Naga5000:



Is this the best gibberish you can muster anymore?


Just posting facts....
Cyclone Bansi as seen from the International Space Station:


Quoting 575. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Let's talk 2015 Atlantic hurricane season! How are north Atlantic sst's looking and what are you guys predictions in activity? What do long range forecast models show in activity?
Quoting 578. PlazaRed:

Here we go!



Maybe it will work?
Thank you.
Anyway its still very warm down in the western regions of the Mexican coasts and I for one think its very odd!


The COMET Program is pleased to announce the publication of "Chapter 7, Synoptic and Mesoscale Systems" as a part of the new 2nd Edition of the online textbook, "Introduction to Tropical Meteorology". The textbook is being developed over time and its chapters are being published incrementally. Please follow this link for more information and link to the new textbook chapter: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id= 1112

In this chapter, we examine the wide-variety of synoptic and mesoscale weather systems that affect the tropics, including, tropical easterly waves, upper tropospheric troughs, monsoon depressions, subtropical cyclones, westerly wind bursts, and cold fronts. Extratropical interactions, such as those caused by Rossby wave trains and the MJO, are also addressed. The chapter presents a review of thunderstorms and lightning and the structure, formation mechanisms, and impacts of mesoscale convective systems. The distribution of lightning globally and within mesoscale systems and mesoscale and local circulations, such as sea-breezes, are explored. The final section focuses on severe local storms such as tornadoes and waterspouts.

The chapter uses a variety of strategies, from graphics and animations, to critical thought questions and interactions, review questions, and a quiz. Each section has links to additional sites and resources that augment the material presented in the chapter. Two reviewers have reviewed the material for scientific accuracy and academic level appropriateness. This chapter includes an interactive version with animations and a companion print version. The intended audience for the online tropical meteorology textbook comprises undergraduate and early graduate meteorology students, current operational or prospective tropical forecasters, and students interested in tropical meteorology.

Most COMET lessons use JavaScript and Adobe® Flash® for navigation, animation, and/or presentation of multimedia elements. Ensure that you have a browser updated to its latest version with JavaScript enabled and the latest version of the Adobe FlashPlayer installed (http://get.adobe.com/flashplayer/). For technical support for this module please visit our Registration and Support FAQs at https://www.meted.ucar.edu/resources_faq.php.

NOTE TO NWS and other NOAA EMPLOYEES: This content is available in the Commerce Learning Center @ National Weather Service (https://doc.learn.com/noaa/nws).

We welcome any comments or questions you may have regarding the content, instructional approach, or use of this textbook. Please e-mail your comments or questions to Arlene Laing (laing at ucar.edu) or Wendy Schreiber-Abshire (abshire at ucar.edu)
I'm somewhat concerned about these fellows springing up at 3,300 feet above sea leve in mid january as well!



Needless to say somebody will probably say its normal and I am deluded to belive otherwise.

Oh! The unlimited world of posting pictures give's new life to this aged mind, along with all sorts of delusions of grandure?

Now all I need is a spell check that works.
Quoting 584. wunderweatherman123:

after the last 3 seasons, the enso means absolutely nothing. granted last year the pacific went bonkers and the atlantic did the exact opposite, we haven't had a "true" el nino during hurricane season since 09. not sure what to think. Too much instability since 2012. 3 very slow seasons as a result. If the vertical instability can return to levels prior to 2012, the atlantic could be in for a reboot. I don't see a very strong el nino this summer(probably boderline warm neutral) and I really can't give my prediction until I see what the vertical instability levels are

I disagree that the ENSO means nothing. Although we haven't seen an official El Nino, warmer waters across the equatorial Pacific have definitely impacted the West Atlantic in the form of wind shear and upper-level subsidence. Also, what do you mean too much instability since 2012? Vertical instability across the tropical Atlantic has been near record low levels since 2012.
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Sat, Jan 17, 6:47 pm EST
... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY...
* LOCATIONS... SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT. HUDSON... EASTERN BERGEN... ESSEX... AND UNION COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER... NEW YORK... BRONX... AND RICHMOND COUNTIES IN NEW YORK.
* HAZARD TYPES... LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
* ICE ACCUMULATIONS... AROUND A TRACE.
* WINDS... SOUTH 5 MPH OR LESS.
* TEMPERATURES... AROUND 30.
* TIMING... EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS... LIGHT ICING MAY MAKE ROADS AND WALKWAYS HAZARDOUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
&&
Time to bale out from southern Europe at about 1.30 am here.

Our winter drought of about 6 weeks is about to get drowned in the aproaching deluge from the north west:-



All the best ot everybody wherever you are and whatever you are expiriancing right now.
Tropical Storm Mekkhala

Tropical Storm Mekkhala
Last Updated Jan 18, 2015 18 GMT
Location 13.3N 123.9E Movement NW
Wind 50 MPH

Quoting 578. PlazaRed:

Here we go!



Maybe it will work?
Thank you.
Anyway its still very warm down in the western regions of the Mexican coasts and I for one think its very odd!
You really want to make it pop? Show the SSTs for the January before Katrina, or maybe the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) The TCHP shows the energy to depth. However, I found your image interesting because of that finger of heat up into the Gulf of Mexico. I think that is called the loop current and was the thing that gave Katrina her energy for rapid intensification. I don't if it has been consistent, but on at least one of the slow years that loop current has been disrupted. This might not be the same as I always viewed the TCHP rather that the SST as I believed it gave a better indication of the actual energy available to the storm systems.
But I am just a casual observer, and I defer to the real Met Geeks on the site.
Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 575. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Let's talk 2015 Atlantic hurricane season! How are north Atlantic sst's looking and what are you guys predictions in activity? What do long range forecast models show in activity?
Dude come back in May!.
Quoting 566. PlazaRed:

Amidst all the thrills and spills of endless excitement with the hottest record year ever.

Has anybody commented and noticed just how warm the SSTs are in the Gulf this year for the middle of January?

Link

Sort of interesting from a casual observers point of view.
Not really unusual condisering the lack of penetrating fronts through the gulf this year and therefore lack of NW wind flow. The temperatures in the gulf vary a great deal. The shallow continental shelf regions, which are essentially a plate of water, heat and cool extremely fast due to their shallowness. It's 50 miles off Naples to reach 100 feet of water. It can go from 84 to 64 in days after our first strong cold front. Here in SW florida we can reach water temps as low as 52 just as we saw 3 and 4 years ago yet the SE coast from Palm Beach south always stays in the mid to upper 70's, regardless how cold the air is, due to the gulf stream.

The central gulf loop current is being fed through the yucatan channel and nw carrib. where there has been almost zero frontal penetration this year hence the warmer eddys flowing north.

Venice water temp 65 now.

208 NM west of Naples 73.6
Link
Link
Quoting 586. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cyclone Bansi as seen from the International Space Station:




That has got to be the coolest pic of a tropical cyclone I have ever seen! Thanks for sharing!



adding some ice on the new update!


where is the cold weather??
602. beell
Quoting 601. hurricanes2018:



where is the cold weather??


The back half of Meteorological Winter begins.




Link
Quoting 592. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I disagree that the ENSO means nothing. Although we haven't seen an official El Nino, warmer waters across the equatorial Pacific have definitely impacted the West Atlantic in the form of wind shear and upper-level subsidence. Also, what do you mean too much instability since 2012? Vertical instability across the tropical Atlantic has been near record low levels since 2012.
I meant how low the instability was. sure the warm waters could have been a factor but they weren't a major factor as to why the last 3 seasons have been deprived of serious hurricanes. waters aren't as warm in the MDR and the amount of sinking air has completely elminated powerful hurricanes the last 3 seasons with the exception of maybe 1.
Quoting 595. hurricanes2018:

Tropical Storm Mekkhala

Tropical Storm Mekkhala
Last Updated Jan 18, 2015 18 GMT
Location 13.3N 123.9E Movement NW
Wind 50 MPH
Geez.... I couldn't figure out where in heck this storm is just now.... had to sit there and calculate from my knowledge of Mauritius' location ... this is BOB, Indian Region, right?
Sheesh. I gotta go relearn all my locations for the Jan - April season ... can't remember a thing!
Quoting 577. opal92nwf:


I've given up blindly speculating, but the only thing I will say is that Florida's time before a hurricane landfall is hanging by a thread.


Gee I dunno. You probably have at least four months. :-)
Quoting 562. Gearsts:




I expect another storm near the Northern Leewards during the 2015 Hurricane Season.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 586. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cyclone Bansi as seen from the International Space Station:





Lightnings in the eyewall?
Deny, rinse, repeat.
Things that make ya go Hummm?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/17/on-the-bias es-caused-by-omissions-in-the-2014-noaa-state-of-t he-climate-report/
Quoting 612. Ossqss:

Things that make ya go Hummm?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/17/on-the-bias es-caused-by-omissions-in-the-2014-noaa-state-of-t he-climate-report/


Yes, but only as to why anyone would still use Anthony's website to discover any usable scientific knowledge.
Quoting Ossqss:
Things that make ya go Hummm?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/17/on-the-bias es-caused-by-omissions-in-the-2014-noaa-state-of-t he-climate-report/
Alternate title: "Tisdale Still Doesn't Understand Statistics".
615. yoboi
Quoting 614. Neapolitan:

Alternate title: "Tisdale Still Doesn't Understand Statistics".


He does understand the so-called- record is within the margin of error....No???
616. vis0
i removed not updating what i type
617. vis0
If temperatures only rises .003 C for every years in a 100 years straight period and the 101th years it goes down .001 C compared to the 100th year, if one points out that the trend is warming, by wxu members yoboi's standard:

A) "see its cooling"

B) AT THE SAME TIME, say "the previous years are faked, conspiracy" (3 times on this blog yoboi & acquaintances took each other apart in this manner )

C) Remember this is the webnet, there are parts of the webnet that make it easier to makeup things (on any side) but unlike in past years where one made something up and those questioning them had to work hard to dig up the proof, the made up stuff is where you posted it, maybe that's why some have to go to the same old links or links that pop up just after major studies are reported.
 
D) the "let me post the last characters/text, not a recent new study" style...You want to help your belief or see a valid opposing study, try posting scientific studies not just words (that's my job ;-) Ask those that have money to fund real major studies by "independent" scientist (that means women & men not on their payroll) to show that the planet is cooling (PLANET as in GLOBAL, not a country, remember if all lands cover only ~35% of the world, picking/saying anything less than ALL LANDS is smaller than the rest of the world..GLOBE), not state (that's even smaller, no not another planet (i've got sources that say in a yr if stats keep showing warming, some are going to start comparing Earth to a made up planet or a near by planet. Try mercury it had its "coolest year" in a ~decade, honey i shrunk Mercury), not go back to once every 8, 12, 24, yr. old studies/theories or even once in a lifetime studies that have MUCH worse errors that what you say NOAAs/NASA has.  Like ones posted by those thinking as you, i noticed 2 had no "y" or clear "x" axis, i even fell for that Volcanic one, but corrected myself/my post a ~month later, and yoboi & other members still use those to rebuke the multitude of new studies coming out every year Showing Earth, the GLOBE is warming.   i can go back to 1000BC to prove a point that the world is flat, but a few studies after that time show (not say, but show) .including you, me, our friends traveling around the Globe, that the world is a GLOBE, it is round.    If anyone was going to say i was wrong, its okay, Earth is oblate/Spherical you know what you did to prove me wrong? You used a scientific study to prove yer point.

E) Someone posted a form of my "E)" already (CBob!)  But here it goes anywayz (i'm then taking "anywayz" from a wxu member, so there)
  if you had (mouth/oral temperatures) of
 
99.8F @10pm,
100 F @11pm,
100.3 @12pm,
100.5 @1AM,
100.8 @2AM
101.0 @3AM (took an aspirin),
100.7 @4AM ("cooler"),
100.9 @5am,
102.5 @6am,
go to the hospital @7am show the Dr. the last 9 hrs of temperature readings, will the Dr. say;

1] "ah don't worry at 4AM you were "cooler" at 4AM, here's my bill."
2] Nurse prepare 10 CC of ♪"The things we do for love"♪  and PREPARE an ice bath, here's my bill
3] "Thermometers have an error range of ¯/+ .03, comeback when the fever is way above the error range, here's my bill."


Well, yoboi might know, but i cannot find a big enough ice tub for Earth, maybe Costco or Walmart has one in "aisle ∞", no gigantic aspirin please, Antarctica might bloat up. Too much aspirin - liver side effects..

Though i might be wrong, lets error on the cautious side when dealing with something as important as your MAIN home.

F) (guess which words yoboi & acquaintances will use from my post)

apology as my browser locked up and as i last bit pkg i posted the rough draft , in trying to post the complete version the blog would not accept its formatted style, so i "vujade'd" the last comment. Reverse of dejavu, you never saw that before..i should've stuck with the rough draft.
618. JAZwx
Sensationalize impeding doom, extract money from world governments, obfuscate data, repeat.