WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

2013: Earth's 4th Warmest Year on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:26 PM GMT on January 21, 2014

Earth had another top-ten hottest year on record in 2013, which ranked as the 4th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said today. NASA rated 2013 as the 7th warmest on record. The disagreement between the two data sets is minor, since the 2013 numbers were within 3% of each other. Including 2013, nine out of ten of the warmest years in the 134-year period of record have occurred during the 21st century (2001–2013). Only one year during the 20th century--1998--was warmer than 2013. Global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record during 2013, and ocean temperatures were the 8th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 4th or 9th warmest in the 35-year record, according to UAH and RSS, respectively. Following the two wettest years on record (2010 and 2011), 2013 joined 2012 as having near-average precipitation on balance across the globe. A NASA press release issued today noted that "weather patterns always will cause fluctuations in average temperatures from year to year, but the continued increases in greenhouse gas levels in Earth's atmosphere are driving a long-term rise in global temperatures. Each successive year will not necessarily be warmer than the year before, but with the current level of greenhouse gas emissions, scientists expect each successive decade to be warmer than the previous. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that traps heat and plays a major role in controlling changes to Earth's climate. It occurs naturally and also is emitted by the burning of fossil fuels for energy. Driven by increasing man-made emissions, the level of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere presently is higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years."


Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2013. Australia had its warmest year on record, and portions of Indonesia, Central Asia, and East Africa were also record warm. The only land area cooler than average was in the Central U.S., and no parts of the globe were record cold. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2. Earth's top ten warmest years since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA and NASA. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Earth's departure in temperature from a 1951 - 1980 average during the period 1880 - 2013, according to NOAA and NASA. Image credit: NASA.

NOVA show on Super Typhoon Haiyan: Wednesday at 9 pm
The PBS NOVA series is airing a show on Super Typhoon Haiyan called "Killer Typhoon", on Wednesday, January 22 at 9 pm ET on most PBS stations. I've had a chance to preview the episode, and thought it was well-done, with impressive storm surge footage and excellent graphics. Commentary is provided by hurricane experts Kerry Emanuel and Jeff Weber, storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, and the current head of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd. Here's the web site for more info: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/killer-typhoon.html.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc!.Snowy and cold outside!.2014 looks like it won't continue the sorry trend from the past three winters.
Thanks for the new blog. If the world is North Carolina alone, this year was pretty chilly... but sadly, NC is just 0.001% of the planet.
carry over from last blog


281. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 8:27 PM GMT on January 21, 2014 +0




Quoting 276. weatherbow:
I just saw a person walking outside in shorts...

It looks like a blizzard outside, and there are people in shorts


I just sweep the front step of the building off in shorts hoodie and steel toe work shoes took about 15 mins at 1.5 f no chill protected from wind
Thanks Dr. Masters
treat mid afternoon read thanks doc
Thanks Dr. Masters ! Two Blogs in a day !
Thanks, Dr. Masters!

also, carryover:

From the latest NESDIS Satellite Precip Estimates:

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
HIGHLY DYNAMIC SET UP WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE PIVOTING THROUGH E TN/
W CAROLINAS AT THIS TIME AS SFC LOW INVOF SE VA HAS HAS HELPED INCREASE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NOT THE BEST SATELLITE PRESENTATION IN TERMS OF
IR..HOWEVER, IR DOES INDICATE INCREASING ENHANCEMENT IN SW AND CENTRAL
VA AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV HAS INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT HAS ALSO SHOWN MOISTURE BEGIN TO WRAP UP THE
EAST COAST AND PIVOT BACK INTO HEAVY SNOW REGION INVOF SE NJ WHERE
PWATS JUST OFFSHORE ARE APPROACHING .6". GENERALLY EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO
CONTINUE IN DEFORMATION AXIS FROM DC NE TO BOSTON WHERE 1-2"+/HR RATES
POSSIBLE IN BEST BANDS. RAP MODEL INDICATED REGION OF BEST LIFT/MAXIMUM
OMEGAS REMAINING FROM DC TO SE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ON SOUTHERN EDGE JUST SW OF DC AS S/WV CONTINUES TO PIVOT
SE...ALSO EVIDENT IN NEW ENHANCEMENT SEEN IN IR/VIS TRENDS IN CENTRAL VA.
I got three inches of snow in one hour!!
A mild breezy day. Upper 60s until a little bit ago. The fall has begun.
Thanks for the new post Dr. Masters,
SCARY


Feels like 5 degrees. Woo! :p
Thanks Dr. Masters. Moderate snow at my house now. Hoping for 6-9" up here.
I have measured 4 inches at my house.Some heavy bands coming later on.The models have three possible snow storms in the line up.For once the cold air and moisture are aligning to give us the snow season we deserve.
We had a nice burst of snow with the ground finally getting cold enough. 1/2 inch on ground right now with a picture coming up in a moment!
Driven by increasing man-made emissions, the level of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere presently is higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years."

800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations

Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices.

In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.



Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report.
snowing here
Quoting 2. Bluestorm5:
Thanks for the new blog. If the world is North Carolina alone, this year was pretty chilly... but sadly, NC is just 0.001% of the planet.

A concept that so many tend to forget.
I just sweep the front step of the building off in shorts hoodie and steel toe work shoes took about 15 mins at 1.5 f no chill protected from wind
3


correction...shorts should read....speedo's
Quoting 14. washingtonian115:
I have measured 4 inches at my house.Some heavy bands coming later on.The models have three possible snow storms in the line up.For once the cold air and moisture are aligning to give us the snow season we deserve.


And an extended school year into July :)
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Under a Winter Weather Advisory for up to an inch of snow. :)
Quoting 19. ricderr:
I just sweep the front step of the building off in shorts hoodie and steel toe work shoes took about 15 mins at 1.5 f no chill protected from wind
3


correction...shorts should read....speedo's


Can someone pass the Brain bleach please. I need to get that picture out of my head.
Quoting 14. washingtonian115:
I have measured 4 inches at my house.Some heavy bands coming later on.The models have three possible snow storms in the line up.For once the cold air and moisture are aligning to give us the snow season we deserve.
Did mine and i have 4-5 inches now.
Quoting 14. washingtonian115:
I have measured 4 inches at my house.Some heavy bands coming later on.The models have three possible snow storms in the line up.For once the cold air and moisture are aligning to give us the snow season we deserve.


So you got 4" this morning. Awesome. And more to follow I am assuming?

Light, annoying rain here.
Looks like bands want to fill in between Baltimore and Washington. Now we are probably entering the worst part of the storm...

I can't at the sad people coming for me because their trying to rub in the "be careful what you wish for" gig.Hey dummies it's winter.It's suppose to snow...I'll just remember that when a hurricane is coming for them and how they were whining last hurricane season about it being dull and dry.I'll let karma do the talking.I'm done for the day.
My goodness.

I hope you know that I am happy for you Washi. I know you wanted snow and you finally got it.

I don't dwell on a dull Hurricane season either. I don't need another 2004/2005 season.
Quoting 26. weatherbow:
Looks like bands want to fill in between Baltimore and Washington. Now we are probably entering the worst part of the storm...

like i said before, we are going downhill tonight, heavy snow as storms starts to wrap.
Quoting 30. Dakster:
I hope you know that I am happy for you Washi. I know you wanted snow and you finally got it.

I don't dwell on a dull Hurricane season either. I don't need another 2004/2005 season.
Ya Hurricane Season is coming up..
Quoting 3. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
carry over from last blog


281. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 8:27 PM GMT on January 21, 2014 +0




Quoting 276. weatherbow:
I just saw a person walking outside in shorts...

It looks like a blizzard outside, and there are people in shorts

Would you rather they wear a kilt? A Scotsman's gotta feel some breeze, you know...
The global temperature anomalies for December are pretty startling. There's the obvious bruise-like dark blue spot centered over Canada, and the larger (and even more obvious) dark red blob over much of Asia. In fact, despite much of North America being cold, December 2013 was the 3rd warmest/132nd coolest on record.:

cool

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for December 2013, published online January 2014, retrieved on January 21, 2014 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/12.
I took this picture using my mom's old HD camera 30 minutes ago. Work a lot better than iPhone for sure!



Quoting 34. AGWcreationists:
Would you rather they wear a kilt? A Scotsman's gotta feel some breeze, you know...


Snow shoveling naked is a privledge, not a right. Kinda of like wearing spandex.
Quoting 36. Bluestorm5:
I took this picture using my mom's old HD camera 30 minutes ago. Work a lot better than iPhone for sure!



um...
As we keep adding more Water Vapor to the Atmosphere, note how much more energy each individual Thunderstorm can create from that increase.

A 1F increase in Global Avg Temps gives us 10% more WV.


Intriguing stuff as we continue the warming Globally by burning fossil fuels to power our economies.

The forcing's gather for another assault in 2014.



Tacloban....
Dr. Jeff Masters

The future looks quite uncertain...
Quoting 27. washingtonian115:
I can't at the sad people coming for me because their trying to rub in the "be careful what you wish for" gig.Hey dummies it's winter.It's suppose to snow...I'll just remember that when a hurricane is coming for them and how they were whining last hurricane season about it being dull and dry.I'll let karma do the talking.I'm done for the day.
They act like you wishing for snow has some kind of effect on the final amount. Pretty silly. I bet they are a real blast at parties.
They act like you wishing for snow has some kind of effect on the final amount. Pretty silly. I bet they are a real blast at parties.





if that's the case....come on....cat 5....take on the treasure coast.....spare those friends of mine in the vicinity....but come on cat 5.....make some history...january hurricane tackles treasure coast
Quoting 38. Climate175:
um...
What's so bad about it?
Quoting 35. Neapolitan:
The global temperature anomalies for December are pretty startling. There's the obvious bruise-like dark blue spot centered over Canada, and the larger (and even more obvious) dark red blob over much of Asia. In fact, despite much of North America being cold, December 2013 was the 3rd warmest/132nd coolest on record.:

cool

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for December 2013, published online January 2014, retrieved on January 21, 2014 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/12.

The weather pattern pretty much decided to single out the eastern half of the U.S. for cold wave after cold wave.
Storms popping up south of me. Looks like a smoke plume from a fire heading over Jax at beginning of animation but don't see any mention of a large fire.

Special Marine Warnings are in effect.

snow here!!
Hurricane Researchers Achieve Important Milestones Despite Quiet 2013 Season

"... P3’s tail Doppler radar data transmitted directly to NOAA Central Operations and successfully assimilated into the operational Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) model.

“This is the first data set collected within the hurricane to be used in the operational models,” says Frank Marks, the Director of the Hurricane Research Division. “It provided a dramatic improvement in the intensity forecast skill for the cases when it is available.” ..."

Hopefully something even better to look forward this HURR season.

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
central Duval County in northeast Florida

* until 500 PM EST

* at 413 PM EST... National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size
hail. This storm was located 6 miles southwest of Cisco gardens...
moving east at 40 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Cisco
gardens... Normandy... Ortega... Riverside... San Marco... downtown
Jacksonville... Arlington... baymeadows... Craig Field... Fort
Caroline... unf... San Pablo... Mayport... Neptune Beach and
Jacksonville Beach.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

In addition to large hail and damaging winds... continuous cloud to
ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors
immediately! Lightning is one of natures number one killers.
Remember... if you can hear thunder... you are close enough to be
struck by lightning.

Report severe weather or damage to the nearest law enforcement agency
or your County emergency management.


Lat... Lon 3025 8137 3025 8144 3019 8144 3027 8194
3038 8194 3040 8190 3044 8140 3041 8140
3040 8139
time... Mot... loc 2113z 275deg 34kt 3033 8183


Nelson
Latest surface analysis places developing low just east of Norfolk at
about 1000 mb. 3hr pressure falls of 5 mb to the NE may be
hinting at a track a little left of guidance. This track will
need to be watched closely.
The media is so dang stupid. They learned absolutely nothing from the last arctic outbreak.

The polar vortex is near Hudson Bay, not in the Northeast USA.



equally as stupid...USA Today says, "What makes this storm a bombogenesis?"

That's akin to saying, "what makes a hurricane a rapid intensification?"

The stupidity hurts.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

NJZ008>010-PAZ101-103-105-212245-
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...CHALFO NT...
PERKASIE
423 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW REORGANIZING ACROSS THE REGION...

AT 415 PM, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
REORGANIZING FROM MORRIS, SOMERSET AND HUNTERDON COUNTIES IN NEW
JERSEY TO BUCKS, MONTGOMERY AND WESTERN CHESTER COUNTIES IN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD.

SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THIS ENHANCED SNOW BAND WILL BE AROUND 2
INCHES PER HOUR. THE QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOW COMBINED WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IS RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. IN
ADDITION, NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

DUE TO THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, STAY OFF THE ROADS IF POSSIBLE.
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, DRIVE SLOWLY AND USE EXTRA CAUTION. BE SURE TO
LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOUR VEHICLE AND THE ONE AHEAD OF
YOU.

$$
Quoting 45. DonnieBwkGA:
Storms popping up south of me. Looks like a smoke plume from a fire heading over Jax at beginning of animation but don't see any mention of a large fire.

Special Marine Warnings are in effect.



Looks like something over by Kenny. What is an Active OBA point?
Link
Wind Chill Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
214 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...LOW WIND CHILLS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AND USHER
IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BY THE END OF TONIGHT. THE ARRIVING COLD
AIR WILL COMBINE WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF LOW WIND CHILL DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOUR TONIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

FLZ052-139-149-239-249-251-221500-
/O.NEW.KTBW.WC.Y.0005.140122T0700Z-140122T1500Z/
POLK-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...CEDAR KEY...
YANKEETOWN...PORT RICHEY...HUDSON...CHIEFLAND...BRONSON...
WILLISTON...DADE CITY...ZEPHYRHILLS...BRANDON...PLANT CITY...
SUN CITY CENTER
214 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO
10 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND LOWER 20S ACROSS LEVY COUNTY.

* OTHER IMPACTS...LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS AND DRESS IN WARM LAYERS OF
CLOTHING. REMEMBER TO BRING PETS INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES WILL
DROP TO 35 OR LOWER...EXCEPT 25 OR LOWER ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
AND SUMTER COUNTY.

&&

$$
Freeze Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
232 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LEVY COUNTY...
...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...USHERING IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

Scientists: Geoengineering can’t halt global climate change

By Gwynne Dyer, Special to the BDN

Bad news on the climate front. It was already clear that we are very likely to break through all the “do not exceed” limits and go into runaway warming later this century, because greenhouse emissions have not dropped, are not dropping and probably will not drop. We did have a fallback position, which was to counter the warming by geoengineering — but now the leading technique for geoengineering also looks like it will not work.

In a paper published this month in Environmental Research Letters, three researchers at Reading University in England have shown that trying to cool the planet by putting large amounts of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere would lead to a 30 percent decline in rainfall in most of the tropics. That would mean permanent drought conditions in countries such as Indonesia, and millions would starve.

Starvation is the main effect that higher average global temperatures will have on human beings, as they will cause a big loss in food production, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. But the standard assumption was that there would still be as much rain in the tropics as before. Maybe even too much rain, as the heat would mean higher rates of evaporation and more powerful tropical storms.

What Drs. Angus Ferraro, Ellie Highwood and Andrew Charlton-Perez have done is to use several climate model simulations to examine the effect of geoengineering on the tropical overturning circulation. This circulation is largely responsible for lifting water vapor that has evaporated at the surface high enough up into the atmosphere that it turns back into water droplets and falls as rain. If the circulation gets weaker, so does the rainfall.

Putting sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere to cut the amount of incoming sunlight and reduce heating at the surface was first suggested by Paul Crutzen, a Nobel Prize-winning atmospheric chemist, in 2006. At that time, talking about geoengineering was taboo among scientists, because they feared that if the general public knew that the heating could be held down that way, they’d stop trying to curb their greenhouse gas emissions.

Crutzen violated the taboo because countries and people were not cutting their emissions, and there was no reasonable prospect that they would. (This is still largely the case, by the way.) So the world definitely needed a Plan B if we did not want to see a planet that is 7 degrees F hotter by the end of the century.

Crutzen pointed out that large volcanoes, when they explode, put substantial amounts of sulphur dioxide gas into the stratosphere. That causes significant cooling at the surface for one or two years, until it all comes down again — and it does no apparent harm in the process. The last big volcano to explode, Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, reduced the average global temperature at peak by one degree F.

Human beings could also put sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere (on a rather larger scale), to hold the temperature down, said Crutzen. The ice caps wouldn’t melt, our agriculture would continue to get the familiar weather it needs, and we would win ourselves more time to get our emissions down. We still have to get our emissions down in the end, he stressed, but it would be better not to have a global calamity on the way from here to there.

But the Reading University scientists have discovered a hitherto unsuspected side-effect of this kind of geoengineering. The sulphur dioxide particles don’t just reflect back a portion of the incoming sunlight from above. They also reflect a portion of the long-wave radiation (heat) coming back up from the surface, and that heats the top of the troposphere.

The troposphere is the lower part of the atmosphere, where all the weather happens. If you heat the top of the troposphere, you reduce the temperature difference between there and the surface, so the tropical overturning circulation weakens. That means less water vapor is carried up, and less rain falls back down. Result: drought and famine.

The sulphur dioxide option was the cheapest and seemingly the best understood option for holding the temperature down. A great many people were glad that it was there, as a kind of safety net if we really don’t get our act together in time to halt the warming by less intrusive means. Now there’s no safety net.

Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose commentary is published in 45 countries.
Quoting 53. PedleyCA:


Looks like something over by Kenny. What is an Active OBA point?
Link


I have no idea Pedley. Have you seen the OBA point designation used in California fires?
Quoting 54. LargoFl:
Wind Chill Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO
10 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND LOWER 20S ACROSS LEVY COUNTY

&&

$$


Oh, the horror! Wind chills in the upper 20s. Might have to wear coats with actual insulation!
Quoting 39. Patrap:
A 1F increase in Global Avg Temps gives us 10% more WV


Patrap,

Your point is a very good one, but the numbers are just a bit off. The Clausius-Clapeyron relation shows that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% for every 1C rise in temperature.


We're currently at about a 5% increase over 100 years ago - and extreme rainfall events are already increasing noticeably as a result.
Quoting 60. Physicistretired:


I like 10%, as its round and phat,and EZ to remember.

I do stand corrected.


Well, seated to be zact.

: )

Our sidewalk was shoveled about 30 mins ago, and now it is covered up with around a 1/2" of snow.
#56 - Patrap,

Here's a link to the geoengineering paper by Ferraro, Highwood, and Charlton-Perez:

"Weakened tropical circulation and reduced precipitation in response to geoengineering "

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/1/014001/ar ticle

As a note of support, the eruption of El Chichon in 1982 produced a cloud over the eastern tropical Pacific, which appeared to coincide with the later appearance of a very strong El Nino episode.
Quoting 57. DonnieBwkGA:


I have no idea Pedley. Have you seen the OBA point designation used in California fires?


Nope, do now, it stands for Open Burning Authorization.
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 02 FOR MIDWEST TO EASTERN U.S. WINTER STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014


Excerpt:

AT 300 PM EST...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.46 INCHES...WAS CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. ANOTHER DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WITH AN ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...29.45 INCHES...HAD MOVED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO THE EAST OF VIRGINIA.
Boomy.

Quoting 60. Physicistretired:
Patrap,

Your point is a very good one, but the numbers are just a bit off. The Clausius-Clapeyron relation shows that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% for every 1C rise in temperature.

We're currently at about a 5% increase over 100 years ago - and extreme rainfall events are already increasing noticeably as a result.

...and technically-speaking, it's not a "water holding capacity" of the atmosphere. It's the equilibrium level of vapor vs. liquid water at a given temperature. A higher temperature would change the equilibrium to be a higher amount of vapor vs. water.

The "holds" concept isn't a good metaphor because we could drastically remove other compounds from the atmosphere and amount of water vapor vs. liquid drops would basically be the same for a given temperature.
Quoting 39. Patrap:
As we keep adding more Water Vapor to the Atmosphere, note how much more energy each individual Thunderstorm can create from that increase.

A 1F increase in Global Avg Temps gives us 10% more WV.


Intriguing stuff as we continue the warming Globally by burning fossil fuels to power our economies.

The forcing's gather for another assault in 2014.



Tacloban....


Four Feet of Rain Floods Philippines, Displaces More Than 200,000 People

Link
Baltimore/DC



Philly



NYC



Boston

Quoting 68. ColoradoBob1:


Four Feet of Rain Floods Philippines, Displaces More Than 200,000 People

Link



TRMM satellite calculates System 91W's deadly Philippine flooding


“The analysis was done for the period from January 10-17, 2014. Extremely high rainfall totals of over 1,168 mm (about 46 inches) for that week were found near northeastern Mindanao.

“ Read more at: Link
Philly and NYC really getting socked. Baltimore also doing well. What's the heaviest snow in these cities from a clipper?
I just got home from work. How much snow has accumulated in D.C.?
Quoting 72. Sfloridacat5:
I just home from work. How much snow has accumulated in D.C.?


No report issued yet by DC NWS. I think DC is around 4" or so.
000
NOUS41 KPHI 212131
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010- 012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-220931-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
431 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING TODAY FOR THE
STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO
HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND
SOCIAL MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

DELAWARE

...NEW CASTLE COUNTY...
HOCKESSIN 7.5 352 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
NEWARK 7.3 353 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
NEW CASTLE 6.0 323 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
N WILMINGTON 6.0 247 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
GREENVILLE 5.7 248 PM 1/21 DEOS
WILMINGTON 5.5 345 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
PRICES CORNER 4.5 248 PM 1/21 DEOS
TALLEY BROOK 4.4 247 PM 1/21 TALLEY STATION
MOUNT CUBA 4.1 248 PM 1/21 DEOS
GLASGOW 4.1 249 PM 1/21 DEOS
CLAYMONT 3.9 247 PM 1/21 DEOS
WHITE CLAY CREEK 3.1 249 PM 1/21 DEOS
WILMINGTON AIRPORT 1.5 108 PM 1/21 ASOS
TOWNSEND 1.0 250 PM 1/21 DEOS

MARYLAND

...CECIL COUNTY...
COLORA 6.0 404 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ELK NECK 2.3 345 PM 1/21 TURKEY POINT.
ELKTON 2.0 109 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY...
CLOVERFIELDS 2.5 307 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW JERSEY

...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
HAMILTON TWP 1.2 1238 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
HAMMONTON 1.0 119 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
PLEASANTVILLE T 100 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ATLANTIC CITY AIRPOR T 100 PM 1/21 ASOS

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
CROSSWICKS 9.0 305 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
SPRINGFIELD TWP 8.0 211 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
MOUNT LAUREL 7.7 348 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
BURLINGTON 7.5 200 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
FLORENCE 7.5 403 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
BURLINGTON TWP 6.0 125 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
CINNAMINSON 5.0 313 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
HAINESPORT 5.0 348 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 4.0 100 PM 1/21 NWS OFFICE
PALMYRA 3.5 1210 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
TABERNACLE 2.0 220 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CAMDEN COUNTY...
PENNSAUKEN 6.4 400 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
CHERRY HILL 6.0 255 PM 1/21 COUNTY OFFICIAL
LINDENWOLD 4.0 404 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
OAKLYN 4.0 255 PM 1/21 COUNTY OFFICIAL
WEST BERLIN 4.0 408 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
GLOUCESTER TWP 4.0 255 PM 1/21 CHEWS LANDING.
WINSLOW TWP 4.0 255 PM 1/21 COUNTY OFFICIAL
SOMERDALE 4.0 255 PM 1/21 COUNTY OFFICIAL
BLACKWOOD 3.5 255 PM 1/21 COUNTY OFFICIAL
BARRINGTON 3.0 255 PM 1/21 COUNTY OFFICIAL

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
VINELAND 0.8 206 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
BRIDGETON 0.8 302 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
GIBBSTOWN 5.0 344 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
GLASSBORO 4.0 340 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
NATIONAL PARK 3.5 100 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
WILLIAMSTOWN 3.2 342 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
CLAYTON 3.0 344 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
WOODBURY 3.0 221 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
WASHINGTON TWP 2.8 342 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
SEWELL 2.3 343 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
FRANKLINVILLE 2.0 343 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
WHITEHOUSE STATION 5.5 340 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
THREE BRIDGES 3.5 244 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
READINGTON TWP 1.9 141 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MERCER COUNTY...
YARDVILLE 9.8 410 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
EAST WINDSOR TWP 9.0 406 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ROBBINSVILLE 5.5 126 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
PRINCETON 5.0 316 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
EWING 4.3 411 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
HOPEWELL TWP 4.3 420 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
EAST BRUNSWICK 6.0 413 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
SAYREVILLE 4.5 413 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
SOUTH PLAINFIELD 4.0 412 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
PLAINSBORO 3.5 331 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
MANALAPAN 9.0 418 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
MORGANVILLE 7.7 414 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
COLTS NECK 7.6 256 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ENGLISHTOWN 7.5 339 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
FREEHOLD 7.5 254 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
MIDDLETOWN 7.0 421 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
MATAWAN 6.0 324 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
CLIFFWOOD 5.5 320 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
FREEHOLD TWP 5.5 118 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
HOWELL TWP 4.3 426 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MORRIS COUNTY...
MORRISTOWN 4.5 418 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...OCEAN COUNTY...
TOMS RIVER 2.8 418 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
BELLE MEAD 4.8 422 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
BRIDGEWATER TWP 4.4 419 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
BOUND BROOK 2.8 309 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
BASKING RIDGE 2.8 118 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
WANTAGE 1.2 406 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WARREN COUNTY...
HACKETTSTOWN 3.0 407 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
BROADWAY 3.0 420 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
STEWARTSVILLE 2.7 234 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
HOPE 1.0 154 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNSYLVANIA

...BERKS COUNTY...
HUFFS CHURCH 3.3 310 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
MOUNT AIRY 2.0 1204 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

...BUCKS COUNTY...
CROYDON 8.0 311 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
BENSALEM 6.0 158 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST ROCKHILL TWP 3.8 417 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
FURLONG 3.7 413 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
WARMINSTER TWP 3.0 224 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
SOUTHAMPTON 2.5 311 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
DOYLESTOWN 2.0 218 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CHESTER COUNTY...
EAST NANTMEAL 5.0 400 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
NOTTINGHAM 4.8 250 PM 1/21 DEOS
NEW LONDON 4.7 208 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
EXTON 4.2 400 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
DEVON 4.0 205 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
EAST COVENTRY TWP 3.5 145 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
COATESVILLE 3.5 255 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
MARSHALLTON 3.3 250 PM 1/21 DEOS
ATGLEN 3.0 250 PM 1/21 DEOS
DEVAULT 3.0 251 PM 1/21 DEOS
WARWICK 3.0 251 PM 1/21 DEOS
WEST CHESTER 2.9 250 PM 1/21 DEOS
PHOENIXVILLE 2.2 127 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
CHESTER SPRINGS 1.7 253 PM 1/21 DEOS
GLENMOORE 1.2 251 PM 1/21 DEOS

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
FOLSOM 8.5 354 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
BROOKHAVEN 8.2 211 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
DREXEL HILL 8.0 410 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ASTON TWP 8.0 329 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
CLIFTON HEIGHTS 7.7 333 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
LANSDOWNE 7.5 218 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
UPPER DARBY 7.0 311 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
CONCORD TWP 6.5 259 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
NORWOOD 6.0 202 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
PROSPECT PARK 5.0 127 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
RADNOR TWP 4.8 308 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
MARCUS HOOK 4.0 205 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
COLLINGDALE 3.0 205 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA

...LEHIGH COUNTY...
S ALLENTOWN 4.0 330 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
NEW TRIPOLI 3.3 312 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
SCHNECKSVILLE 3.2 254 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ALLENTOWN AIRPORT 3.1 100 PM 1/21 ASOS
SLATINGTON 3.0 200 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ALLENTOWN 2.5 1205 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
ZIONSVILLE 2.3 1158 AM 1/21 PUBLIC

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
WYNNEWOOD 8.3 313 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
JENKINTOWN 5.4 307 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
GILBERTSVILLE 5.0 415 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
HATBORO 4.0 207 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
GRATERFORD 4.0 339 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
WORCESTER 3.8 411 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
LIMERICK 3.3 345 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ROYERSFORD 3.2 348 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
PALMER TWP 4.0 422 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
BETHLEHEM 2.5 1134 AM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
MARTINS CREEK 1.8 236 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
FOX CHASE 7.0 350 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTHEAST PHILADELPH 6.5 348 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
PHILADELPHIA FIRE 78 6.0 106 PM 1/21 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
PHILADELPHIA CENTER 5.5 126 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA
MAYFAIR 5.0 210 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
PHILADELPHIA FIRE 33 4.0 130 PM 1/21 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
EAST FALLS 4.0 1248 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
PHILADELPHIA INTL AI 3.5 100 PM 1/21 ASOS
PHILADELPHIA 3.0 1246 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
TORRESDALE 2.0 1209 PM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA

$$

GAINES/MEOLA
Quoting 72. Sfloridacat5:
I just got home from work. How much snow has accumulated in D.C.?
The downers are gone.I will give you a update.At my house it is now 6 inches.I'm not sure about downtown though.
Quoting 73. DonnieBwkGA:


No report issued yet by DC NWS. I think DC is around 4" or so.


They have issued the latest snowfall totals, but they issue it through public information statements instead of Local Storm Reports. Here is the latest one:


000
NOUS41 KLWX 212125
PNSLWX
DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502 -VAZ025>031-
036>040-042-050>057-501>504-WVZ050>053-055-501>50 6-220925-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
425 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BALTIMORE

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

MARYLAND

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
2 NNW FROSTBURG 5.0 1244 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
FROSTBURG 4.8 402 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S ECKHART MINES 4.0 315 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ECKHART MINES 3.3 1204 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...
ODENTON 3.5 400 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
BWI AIRPORT 1.3 140 PM 1/21 AIRPORT
SEVERN 1.1 153 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...BALTIMORE COUNTY...
2 E PARKTON 6.5 234 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W PARKTON 6.3 305 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
JACKSONVILLE 5.8 409 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 WNW HEREFORD 5.5 154 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ESSEX 5.1 222 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NW LONG GREEN 5.0 315 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E OELLA 4.5 300 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NE CATONSVILLE 4.5 415 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 E WHITE MARSH 3.5 219 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
REISTERSTOWN 3.4 115 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W HAMPTON 3.0 200 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
HUNT VALLEY 3.0 130 PM 1/21 BROADCAST MEDIA
2 E COCKEYSVILLE 2.5 1030 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
PHOENIX 1.5 1048 AM 1/21 PUBLIC

...BALTIMORE CITY...
2 ESE ARLINGTON 3.6 245 PM 1/21 BROADCAST MEDIA
PIMLICO 2.8 200 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CALVERT COUNTY...
NORTH BEACH 2.2 245 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CARROLL COUNTY...
1 S REESE 9.0 325 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
4 WSW REESE 8.0 358 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SE WESTMINSTER 8.0 343 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W WESTMINSTER 7.0 250 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
3 NNW GAITHER 7.0 400 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSW MANCHESTER 6.5 332 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 SE WINFIELD 5.2 340 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ELDERSBURG 4.5 235 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
3 WSW LINEBORO 4.0 1240 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CHARLES COUNTY...
3 ESE ST. CHARLES 1.3 245 PM 1/21 COCORAHS
1 SW DENTSVILLE 1.0 400 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...FREDERICK COUNTY...
2 SSW MARSTON 7.5 415 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 NW FREDERICK 7.0 150 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 E WALKERSVILLE 7.0 245 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 SSW FREDERICK 6.0 150 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
2 NW FREDERICK 5.6 135 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
2 N NEW MARKET 5.0 1230 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
POINT OF ROCKS 5.0 300 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
1 NE POINT OF ROCKS 3.4 1214 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

...HARFORD COUNTY...
BEL AIR 6.8 344 PM 1/21 SHERIFF OFFICE
WHITEFORD 4.0 317 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...HOWARD COUNTY...
ELLICOTT CITY 4.0 330 PM 1/21 BROADCAST MEDIA
1 SSE SIMPSONVILLE 3.9 400 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 W ELKRIDGE 3.8 350 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SE GAITHER 3.5 200 PM 1/21 COCORAHS
2 N COLUMBIA 3.2 220 PM 1/21 COCORAHS
1 WSW SAVAGE 2.7 221 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SW ELLICOTT CITY 2.6 226 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
2 N DARNESTOWN 4.3 309 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 SSW GERMANTOWN 4.3 300 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 ENE GAITHERSBURG 4.0 300 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 ENE GERMANTOWN 4.0 330 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE NORBECK 3.4 300 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SE DAMASCUS 3.0 1150 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NW COLESVILLE 3.0 337 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S FOUR CORNERS 2.2 215 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE FAIRLAND 2.0 221 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE WASHINGTON GRO 2.0 1100 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSW MONTGOMERY VIL 2.0 118 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...
1 SW OXON HILL 0.5 102 PM 1/21 CO-OP OBSERVER

...ST. MARYS COUNTY...
1 S LOVEVILLE 0.5 350 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
KEEDYSVILLE 4.0 1053 AM 1/21 PUBLIC
1 NE FUNKSTOWN 4.0 240 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
HAGERSTOWN 3.5 1050 AM 1/21 PUBLIC

VIRGINIA

...ALBEMARLE COUNTY...
3 NW EARLYSVILLE 1.5 330 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ARLINGTON COUNTY...
1 NNE BAILEYS CROSSR 3.3 355 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
REAGAN NATIONAL AIRP 2.1 400 PM 1/21 AIRPORT
ARLINGTON 2.0 210 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 WNW REAGAN NATIONA 0.8 230 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 E BARCROFT T 126 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...
1 W ALEXANDRIA 2.3 245 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ENE ALEXANDRIA 2.0 330 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...
1 SSE CHARLOTTESVILL T 1151 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF HARRISONBURG...
2 W HARRISONBURG 3.5 1226 PM 1/21 BROADCAST MEDIA

...CITY OF MANASSAS...
MANASSAS 3.0 423 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

...CITY OF WAYNESBORO...
WAYNESBORO 2.0 1055 AM 1/21 COUNTY EMRG MGMT

...CITY OF WINCHESTER...
2 S WINCHESTER 6.5 326 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
WINCHESTER 5.0 320 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CLARKE COUNTY...
1 NNW BERRYVILLE 3.8 103 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 N BERRYVILLE 2.9 1248 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W BERRYVILLE 2.0 1030 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...FAIRFAX COUNTY...
1 SE THE I66 AND I49 3.0 345 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 E OAKTON 2.8 322 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W RIVERCREST 2.3 338 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SE CENTREVILLE 2.0 221 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
VIENNA 1.8 1230 PM 1/21 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 NW NEWINGTON 1.5 250 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E FAIRFAX STATION 1.3 138 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 S LINCOLNIA 1.1 115 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE HERNDON 1.1 1115 AM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
WEST SPRINGFIELD 0.5 1235 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...FAUQUIER COUNTY...
3 NNW WOOLSEY 1.9 147 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
OPAL 1.5 315 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

...FREDERICK COUNTY...
2 E STEPHENS CITY 5.5 330 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 ESE ALBIN 5.1 1234 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NNE NINEVEH 4.5 200 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 S ARMEL 3.0 1122 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
CLEAR BROOK 3.0 1053 AM 1/21 PUBLIC
4 E WINCHESTER 2.0 1152 AM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

...HIGHLAND COUNTY...
3 NW HIGHTOWN 6.0 200 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
MUSTOE 5.1 346 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...LOUDOUN COUNTY...
1 SW PURCELLVILLE 5.0 255 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
PURCELLVILLE 4.8 357 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WNW ROUND HILL 4.0 1252 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
DULLES INTERNATIONAL 3.6 400 PM 1/21 AIRPORT
2 W ASHBURN 2.5 200 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 WNW PURCELLVILLE 2.5 300 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NE OAK GROVE 2.5 240 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ASHBURN 2.0 1203 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 WSW LEESBURG 1.5 1100 AM 1/21 PUBLIC

...MADISON COUNTY...
HAYWOOD 3.1 259 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PAGE COUNTY...
1 ESE HONEYVILLE 1.2 1030 AM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY...
1 ENE DUMFRIES 2.2 419 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...
1 SE MASSANUTTEN 3.0 345 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SHENANDOAH COUNTY...
FORT VALLEY 4.0 1058 AM 1/21 PUBLIC
3 SSE TOMS BROOK 4.0 350 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...STAFFORD COUNTY...
8 ESE FREDERICKSBURG 0.4 300 PM 1/21 COCORAHS

...WARREN COUNTY...
1 S FRONT ROYAL 3.5 225 PM 1/21 PUBLIC

WEST VIRGINIA

...BERKELEY COUNTY...
2 E MARTINSBURG 6.7 400 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
SHANGHAI 6.0 1223 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
JONES SPRINGS 5.0 115 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NW FALLING WATERS 4.0 1242 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...GRANT COUNTY...
2 NE KLINE GAP 7.5 325 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
BAYARD 5.1 1230 PM 1/21 CO-OP OBSERVER

...MINERAL COUNTY...
2 E KITZMILLER 6.0 200 PM 1/21 FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
2 SSW KEYSER 6.0 419 PM 1/21 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 NNE SHORT GAP 4.5 240 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PENDLETON COUNTY...
6 WSW CHERRY GROVE 9.0 130 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

$$

DH
Thanks JTD I didn't know that!



Totals could go even higher! I am below the M on accumulation.
Not sure how accurate this is from Weather Street.

Looks like Ncstorm is going to get the snow they wanted. ;)

Temps should drop and that rain/snow line should go south...



I myself had a good 3" last night pushing my yearly total to 28". It's been fun, only half over too!
Quoting 67. ScottLincoln:

...and technically-speaking, it's not a "water holding capacity" of the atmosphere. It's the equilibrium level of vapor vs. liquid water at a given temperature. A higher temperature would change the equilibrium to be a higher amount of vapor vs. water.

The "holds" concept isn't a good metaphor because we could drastically remove other compounds from the atmosphere and amount of water vapor vs. liquid drops would basically be the same for a given temperature.



Seems to me "holds" works just fine even with your explanation, a warmer airmass is capable of "holding" more vapor than a colder one comparatively :)

Although it isn't a technical definition true, but I like using it to explain it to non-meteorology people by simply representing a warm airmass as a larger glass and a cold airmass as a smaller glass. If I pour the same volume of water into both glass, the glass representing the cold airmass will be more full.


I like using that way of explaining it to all the people who insist to me that humidity is 100% on hot humid summer days in Central Florida with temps in the 90's when really its usually around 50 to 60% on really humid days :)
Boomers moving through. Snow later tonight. Frigid temperatures tomorrow.

EDIT: Temperatures have fallen too slowly and moisture is more limited than expected...thus, no snow. And to that I say, screw you Mother Nature.

snowing here
Here's a bit I cut out of the Philippine rainstorm problem link:-

"More than 200,000 people have been displaced from their homes by the flooding during the same period, while at least 42 have been killed by flooding or mudslides.

Some of the hardest hit areas, including Hinatuan and Surigao, have received more than 4 feet (1,220 mm) of rain since Jan. 1, with rainfall occurring each day so far this year.

For comparison, Hinatuan's 52.68 inches (1,338 mm) of rainfall through Jan. 21 is more than the normal yearly precipitation in New York City, which is 49.94 inches (1,269 mm)."

Here's the link:-

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/four-f eet-of-rain-floods-phili/22301674

Hard to imagine what it would be like in our areas if this sort of thing was to happen?
Bad enough when we get 6 inches of rain over a few days.
Arctic warmth unprecedented in 44,000 years, reveals ancient moss

"...The authors collected 365 samples of recently exposed biological material from 110 different locations, cutting a 1000 kilometer long transect across Baffin Island.

From their samples the authors obtained 145 viable measurements through radiocarbon dating. They found that most of their samples date from the past 5000 years, when a period of strong cooling overtook the Arctic. However, the authors also found older samples which were buried from 24,000 to 44,000 years ago.

The records suggest that in general, the eastern Canadian Arctic is warmer now than in any century in the past 5000 years, and in some places, modern temperatures are unprecedented in at least the past 44,000 years.

The observations, the authors suggest, show that modern Arctic warming far exceeds the bounds of historical natural variability."


More at the link.
New total snow forecast from NWS Sterling, VA

snowing at my house!!
Think about this the next time you go Walmart! Link
Sue Palka shows a band of heavy snow coming for D.C.Which would bump me up to around 7 or 8 inches.
i just don't see the 8-10" panning out for the city of baltimore. ill take a measurement in a few minutes.

the totals in the hills to the north and northeast very believable.
Quoting 90. redux:
i just don't see the 8-10" panning out for the city of baltimore. ill take a measurement in a few minutes.

the totals in the hills to the north and northeast very believable.
Mmmmm are you CLEANING or PAYING for the destruction of the snow that you are about to measure?.
From Neven's Arctic Sea Ice blog -

Off topic but possibly of use to some of you:
NOAA just updated their Ocean Heat Content time series, which are now complete through 2013. I drew a couple of graphs showing the full series (quarterly and annual values) from 1955 to 2013. The annual values, in particular, give a different look than NOAA's standard graphs, and tell quite a story.
0-2000 meters:

0-700 meters:


Posted by: L. Hamilton | January 21, 2014 at 16:43


The paragraph below is from the post by Patrap at comment 16:-

"Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report."

To set all the records totally straight, if the data above is from the air bubbles trapped in the Antarctic ice. Then the next question should be:-
Has anybody taken CO2 tests in more or less he same place in he Antarctic? Are they nearly 400 PPM?
Might be the same as the posted CO2 from the Hawaiian labs, might not.
I think it will have little difference but never give people an inch or they will take a mile.
The 2 places are a long way apart.
China's industry exporting air pollution to U.S., study says


A study found that China's export industry is responsible for pollution that blows across the Pacific Ocean and contributes to smog in the United States. (Peter Parks / AFP/Getty Images / July 19, 2006)

By Tony Barboza

January 20, 2014, 2:19 p.m.

China’s export industry is responsible for dirty emissions that are blowing across the Pacific Ocean and contributing to smog in the United States, a new scientific study says.
About one-fifth of the pollution China spews into the atmosphere comes from producing goods for export to the United States and other countries, according to the paper by a group of scientists that was published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Winds blow pollutants from Chinese power plants and factories across the Pacific in about six days, where they boost levels of smog in the United States.
Los Angeles and parts of the eastern U.S. experienced at least one extra day of smog that exceeded federal health standards for ozone in 2006 as a result of emissions from export manufacturing in China, the study found.
“Rising emissions produced in China are a key reason global emissions of air pollutants have remained at a high level during 2000–2009 even as emissions produced in the United States, Europe, and Japan have decreased,” the scientists wrote. “Outsourcing production to China does not always relieve consumers in the United States — or, for that matter, many countries in the Northern Hemisphere — from the environmental impacts of air pollution."
Nine scientists in the United States, China and the United Kingdom used data from 2006 to quantify how much of the air pollution reaching the U.S. West Coast from China is from the production goods for export to the United States and other countries. Scientists followed the path of air pollutants, including sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides carbon monoxide and black carbon, through the atmosphere to gauge their effects on air quality in the United States.
While the United States has reaped some of the benefits of outsourcing -- cheaper cellphones, televisions and appliances and big declines in air pollution -- rising emissions in China have paralyzed cities there with severe smog.
The paper is a reminder that U.S. demand for cheap imports from China has a way of blowing those environmental problems back at us, said Steve Davis, an Earth system scientist at UC Irvine and co-author of the study.
“It’s sort of a boomerang effect,” he said.
Davis expressed hope that the findings would be used by world governments working to craft international agreements to limit emissions of carbon dioxide that are driving climate change as well as short-lived air pollutants that are responsible for poor air quality around the globe.
“We need to move beyond placing blame for who’s creating these emissions and realize that we all have a common interest in reducing the pollution,” Davis said.
Since the 1990s, scientists have known that pollution from China is carried across the Pacific by westerly winds and that it worsens air quality along the U.S. West Coast. Those emissions contribute only slightly to U.S. smog levels, which are overwhelmingly caused by local emissions from vehicles, factories and power plants.
“We shouldn’t take an alarmist perspective,” Davis said. “Los Angeles air quality is not going to be what it was in the 70s or 80s because of this.”


Feeze expected inland S.W. Florida Thursday night.
Quoting 91. washingtonian115:
Mmmmm are CLEANING or PAYING for the destruction of the snow that you are about to measure?.
I can spot that heavy band coming on radar that is gonna dump a lot. LWX: "A HEAVY BAND
DEVELOPING IN N VA/N MARYLAND SET TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS ACROSS THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE METRO."
18z also shows that snow system on Sunday.
Live shot of Cantore in D.C. and it wasn't snowing. Looks like a blizzard up in Plymounth Mass.
Quoting 98. Sfloridacat5:
Live shot of Cantore in D.C. and it wasn't snowing. Looks like a blizzard up in Plymounth Mass.
That will all change when that band comes through and bring another burst o snow.
Quoting 97. Climate175:
18z also shows that snow system on Sunday.
Seems we don't get a break in the foreseeable future.Then after that the models pick on another storm that Saturday.But that's 10 days out.
I also tracked where the system from Sunday is at this moment and it is that low under Alaska.
Quoting 92. ColoradoBob1:
From Neven's Arctic Sea Ice blog -

Off topic but possibly of use to some of you:
NOAA just updated their Ocean Heat Content time series, which are now complete through 2013. I drew a couple of graphs showing the full series (quarterly and annual values) from 1955 to 2013. The annual values, in particular, give a different look than NOAA's standard graphs, and tell quite a story.
0-2000 meters:

0-700 meters:


Posted by: L. Hamilton | January 21, 2014 at 16:43




Please note the much talked about "pause" date 16 years ago, and what the graphs do after that date.
Who is redux ?
103. txjac
Quoting 75. washingtonian115:
The downers are gone.I will give you a update.At my house it is now 6 inches.I'm not sure about downtown though.


Man I am so, so happy for you.
Now this of course obligates you to be happy for me when I get rain in the summer! lol
Quoting 103. txjac:


Man I am so, so happy for you.
Now this of course obligates you to be happy for me when I get rain in the summer! lol
Lol.I'm happy.I was delighted last year to hear about the Texas drought approving a whole lot vs 2011 when it was just downright horrid.
I have about 7 inches on the grass.
Are you still getting heavy snow washi?
107. txjac
LOL ...I just thought of something ...I talk and listen to you people on here more than I do my family ...lol

60F degrees here presently ...by Thusday that will change
108. txjac
Quoting 105. Climate175:
I have about 7 inches on the grass.


Yippee Washi Jr!
Quoting 106. DonnieBwkGA:
Are you still getting heavy snow washi?
Yes!.A matter of fact the heavy band is here.the flakes are fat and flying!.
I try to post accuweather radar but WU wouldn't let me..so let me use this one..

111. txjac
Quoting 109. washingtonian115:
Yes!.A matter of fact the heavy band is here.the flakes are fat and flying!.


If you can get pictures to share ...you know, for those of us that kind of miss snow. I know I'd love it
112. redux
Quoting 90. redux:
i just don't see the 8-10" panning out for the city of baltimore. ill take a measurement in a few minutes.

the totals in the hills to the north and northeast very believable.


difficult to get a good measurement. 5" believable on grass, 3" on untreated concrete alley.
113. redux
Quoting 102. Climate175:
Who is redux ?


im redux. hi.
I have about 9 inches on the grass.
115. txjac
Quoting 112. redux:


difficult to get a good measurement. 5" believable on grass, 3" on untreated concrete alley.


Where are you at? From?
116. wxmod
China pollution wafting across Pacific to blanket US

"Pollution from China travels in large quantities across the Pacific Ocean to the United States, a new study has found, making environmental and health problems unexpected side effects of US demand for cheap China-manufactured goods."
----
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/2 1/china-pollution-pacific-us-smog
----
MODIS image of pollution in the USA that probably came on a storm from China. It took 4 days to get here.
----
117. redux
Quoting 115. txjac:


Where are you at? From?


downtown baltimore.

Nearby Airports jan 21 2014 at 6 40 pm

New Haven | Snow Freezing Fog | 14 °F
Chester | Snow | 14 °F
Meriden | Light Snow | 13 °F




Nearby Weather Stations

Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 12.7 °F
Orcutt | 13.5 °F
Bishop's Orchards | 14.7 °F
Dulles Airport had 5.8" as of 5:38 p.m.
120. redux
Quoting 91. washingtonian115:
Mmmmm are you CLEANING or PAYING for the destruction of the snow that you are about to measure?.


not to derail the conversation, but many contractors employees remove snow when it snows because they can't work. and so, contractors do snow removal with their equipment when it snows.

sometimes, the contracts are to remove very large parking lots like say the ones for GSA. and with the unpredictability of weather, sometimes the phone rings after the employees have worked a full shift, and now must work the entire night to get it done, and they can't go home until its done.

the people who have to do that hate it. its cold, they are tired, and they want to go home...but they can't until the job is done.

i know that they are paid to do it, but the reality is its not fun for them.
Quoting 93. PlazaRed:
The paragraph below is from the post by Patrap at comment 16:-

"Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report."

To set all the records totally straight, if the data above is from the air bubbles trapped in the Antarctic ice. Then the next question should be:-
Has anybody taken CO2 tests in more or less he same place in he Antarctic? Are they nearly 400 PPM?
Might be the same as the posted CO2 from the Hawaiian labs, might not.
I think it will have little difference but never give people an inch or they will take a mile.
The 2 places are a long way apart.


CO2 levels as high as tonight were last recorded 800,000 years ago. There are other proxies besides ice cores.
Quoting 108. txjac:


Yippee Washi Jr!
Washi Jr. ?
123. wxmod
China's exhaust pipe. MODIS satellite image of pollution.

Quoting 99. washingtonian115:
That will all change when that band comes through and bring another burst o snow. Seems we don't get a break in the foreseeable future.Then after that the models pick on another storm that Saturday.But that's 10 days out.


Break? Why are you talking 'bout breaks? You asked for snow, here's the snow.

:)

I got a dusting on the leaves outdoors.
This will not quote, so I copied it:-

"Your point is a very good one, but the numbers are just a bit off. The Clausius-Clapeyron relation shows that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% for every 1C rise in temperature.

We're currently at about a 5% increase over 100 years ago - and extreme rainfall events are already increasing noticeably as a result."


Think of 5%, not a lot on a salary, or the max speed of a car but 5% of extra rainfall is an enormous amount.
Given that it probably won't be evenly distributed and in fact some areas may receive a lot less than 5% of their normal rainfall, then that 5% might mean that places like the Philippine's might happen to get 100% more than they used too.
One thing for sure that old balance of rainfall will probably be just that and we might be looking at the beginning of the whole new balance.
Philadelphia is closing all schools tomorrow.
Southern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee county schools are closing for tomorrow due to snow accumulations of 1-2 inches. Putnam County (not me) is one of those closed.


Courtesy of Jeremy C. Flatt via Facebook

An arctic cold front moved through the state this morning. Along with the cold air, some snow fell around the area. A few spots west of Interstate 65 saw flurries and maybe dusting, but a burst of snow east of Interstate 65 helped to drop anywhere from one half inch to 2 inches of snow. Here are a few of the reports:

Monterey in Putnam County - 2.0 inches
Crossville in Cumberland County - 1.5 inches
Jamestown in Fentress County - 1.5 inches
Cookeville in Putnam County - 1.0 inches
Byrdstown in Pickett County - 0.75 inches
Livingston in Overton County - 0.75 inches

Nashville NWS WFO
Meanwhile, in Vermont I am crying into my cocoa.

:(

I should stay away from here when I have a bad case of the jealous-es.

We need snow!
Quoting 124. Astrometeor:


Break? Why are you talking 'bout breaks? You asked for snow, here's the snow.

:)

I got a dusting on the leaves outdoors.
Yes I know the snow is coming.I'm referring to the pattern offering us abundant opportunities for snow.So if someone misses out this time,theirs always next time.
Hi everyone. My brother is in VA. about 25 minutes from Washington. He wanted to know if he will get more snow tonight. He said that he has only had flurries so far. Any thoughts? Thank you!
Calvert County, MD public schools will be closed on Wednesday with code red for 12 month employees.
Quoting 130. mermaidlaw:
Hi everyone. My brother is in VA. about 25 minutes from Washington. He wanted to know if he will get more snow tonight. He said that he has only had flurries so far. Any thoughts? Thank you!


What's his idea of flurries?

All FCPS schools will be closed on January 22, 2014. Offices will open at noon.
PWC Schools closed tomorrow.
According to Al Rocker the "Arctic hurricane" (Polar Vortex) is affecting the east coast and bringing big snows to the cities -_-.


From Miami NWS Disco...

..COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING TO BRING ANOTHER BRIEF BOUT
OF COLD WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA...

DISCUSSION...A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OCEAN STORM CURRENTLY STRETCHES
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER THIS EVENING, USHERING IN YET ANOTHER COLD AND DRY AIRMASS
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PARADE OF COLD FRONTS CONTINUES!

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND WED
NIGHT...AND THE RESULT IS VERY LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE MAIN COLD WEATHER IMPACTS IS A COLD BREEZE LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND 40S ELSEWHERE. WED
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH THE CONCERN FOR A FREEZE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR, NAMELY ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY AND
INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTIES. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS. A BIG FACTOR IN WHETHER OR NOT TEMPS FALL TO FREEZING
ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDINESS
MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WED NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS FLORIDA...BUT WITH DIFFERING LOCATIONS. THIS WILL
BE A BIG PLAYER TO WATCH. WE`VE SEEN THIS ON COLD NIGHTS...TEMPS
TUMBLE UNTIL CIRRUS SPREADS IN THEN THE TEMPS LEVEL OFF OR EVEN
RISE AT TIMES. SO THIS WILL BE A BIG PLAYER TO WATCH...BECAUSE
THIS IS LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE EVENT.

AFTER THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER REGIME PREVAILING.
Tonight:



Da Forecast of C-c-c-c-c-COLD!

Quoting 135. washingtonian115:
According to Al Rocker the "Arctic hurricane" (Polar Vortex) is affecting the east coast and bringing big snows to the cities -_-.

They also said that on CNN.
Euro really puts a lot of rain over C FL starting Sunday thru most of next week. Very impressive on the Euro as it is showing several impulses crossing FL with one monster heading up the eastern seaboard.



Quoting 139. StormTrackerScott:
Euro really puts a lot of rain over C FL starting Sunday thru most of next week. Very impressive on the Euro as it is showing several impulses crossing FL with one monster heading up the eastern seaboard.



Hey Scott..Is the Euro still showing snow for NC in the 12z run?
Quoting 140. ncstorm:


Hey Scott..Is the Euro still showing snow for NC in the 12z run?


Some as the 12Z Euro trended slightly west.

snowing outside!!
Quoting 139. StormTrackerScott:
Euro really puts a lot of rain over C FL starting Sunday thru most of next week. Very impressive on the Euro as it is showing several impulses crossing FL with one monster heading up the eastern seaboard.



Euro gives me 8 or 9 inches.I will have a impressive snow season if that comes true.But it's 10 days from now.
Quoting 135. washingtonian115:
According to Al Rocker the "Arctic hurricane" (Polar Vortex) is affecting the east coast and bringing big snows to the cities -_-.


Al does know there are meteorologists who can help him, right?

BTW, pic doesn't work.
Quoting 141. StormTrackerScott:


Some as the 12Z Euro trended slightly west.



of course, how typical..LOL..thanks :)
Euro shows another storm gathering over Colorado at day 10 and notice all the cold air in place a cross the Country. This looks like a fun pattern if you ask me.

Quoting 143. washingtonian115:
It appears to far off the coast.


Quoting 141. StormTrackerScott:


Some as the 12Z Euro trended slightly west.



Is that purple over me?



I know it's long-range, but still. Cold air should be here around that time frame.
Quoting 139. StormTrackerScott:
Euro really puts a lot of rain over C FL starting Sunday thru most of next week. Very impressive on the Euro as it is showing several impulses crossing FL with one monster heading up the eastern seaboard.



We shall watch.
Quoting 141. StormTrackerScott:


Some as the 12Z Euro trended slightly west.

HOLY COW O_O One run I didn't check and it's showing a massive event here...
Quoting 141. StormTrackerScott:


Some as the 12Z Euro trended slightly west.

GFS and Euro are hinting at very good storms in the near future. More snow for me :)!
Montgomery Co. schools closed Wednesday
Before that event we still have this to get through and the one on Sunday which will be a repeat of today.
Quoting 153. washingtonian115:
Before that event we still have this to get through and the one on Sunday which will be a repeat of today.
Yeah Sunday's storm is on my head right now, i know it will happen because the pattern supports it.
12z Euro is giving me the most amount of snow of any models this winter so far, even though it's 10 days away. I'm not putting up much of hope, but it's interesting for sure!
new snow storm picture!
Is it safe for me to say here, that I am even cold here in Florida? My old bones just can't get warm lately! And more cold is coming.
Please stay safe and warm everyone.
I care about ALL of you!
Quoting 157. mermaidlaw:
Is it safe for me to say here, that I am even cold here in Florida? My old bones just can't get warm lately! And more cold is coming.
Please stay safe and warm everyone.
I care about ALL of you!
Thank you!.Stay warm in Florida!.`I'm sure those 80's and 90's you all are familiar with will return soon :).
I washi is still loading up no snow

lucky
I'm opening up a donation hotline for those who have snow to donate to the snow needy.

Simply dial 1800-GIV-SNOW

or text SNOW1 to 99203
Quoting 160. GeorgiaStormz:
I washi is still loading up no snow

lucky
Yes I'am :).Still snowing heavily.The last time I measured I was at 6 and a half.Looks like a good 8 inches now with this heavy band still with us.
164. mati
low for me tonight .. -29C nice and warm
Who is ready for Groundhog Day ?
Six more weeks or Early Spring?
Storm is starting to settle down out west it should be done within two hours is my guess.
I expect this snow cover map to change over the next week and a half..
Quoting 109. washingtonian115:
Yes!.A matter of fact the heavy band is here.the flakes are fat and flying!.


You have fat flying crazy people near you?

oh wait, you are in DC. Nevermind.
While the East Coast is getting a good snowstorm, I'm sitting here with cold, calm skies. A couple clippers are expected to come through tomorrow and Friday night-Saturday. Tomorrow's should only bring Coating-2", but the next could provide a little more. These next rounds of snow should put at least Detroit, and probably Flint, into their snowiest January's on record. Could be something noteworthy at the end of the month, but that is a ways away. Very cold temperatures will persist as well, guaranteeing January being below average for temps. It's definitely been the best winter since 2010-2011.

Quoting 1. washingtonian115:
Thanks Doc!.Snowy and cold outside!.2014 looks like it won't continue the sorry trend from the past three winters.


I'm still counting on you posting a pic of a snowman tomorrow Washi..
I really hope your enjoying this..
I bet the youngun's are gonna have a ball.. :)
(PS..remember "No tunneling"..That can be very dangerous)
Sigh. Winter Weather Advisory was just cancelled for my area.

Quoting 174. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sigh.
Bad day, Cody?
176. txjac
Quoting 174. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sigh. Winter Weather Advisory was just cancelled for my area.


Sorry to hear that ...
Go visit washi ...she has snow
I'm getting quite a bit of credit for getting the forecast right in Eastern NC, especially in my home county.
Quoting 174. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sigh. Winter Weather Advisory was just cancelled for my area.


Yippee! I mean...
98P

Quoting 177. Bluestorm5:
I'm getting quite a bit of credit for getting the forecast right in Eastern NC, especially in my home county.
Always a good feeling. Keep up the good work.
Quoting 173. pcola57:


I'm still counting on you posting a pic of a snowman tomorrow Washi..
I really hope your enjoying this..
I bet the youngun's are gonna have a ball.. :)
(PS..remember "No tunneling"..That can be very dangerous)
Hey Pcola!.I have measured 7 and a half inches.It's still snowing at a moderate rate at this hour.We'll make snow twins.lol.
Quoting 181. washingtonian115:
Hey Pcola!.I have measured 7 and a half inches.It's still snowing at a moderate rate at this hour.We'll make snow twins.lol.


Great Washi.. :)
I never tried it but does snow make for a good adult beverage?

PS..
I hope you get snow up to your..Elbows..Lol.. :)
hehehehhehehee the day has come.
184. txjac
Compliments of Daily Mail Online

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2543513/C hinas-largest-freshwater-lake-twice-size-London-co mpletely-dries-drought.html


China's largest freshwater lake that is twice the size of London completely dries up due to drought


The largest freshwater lake in China which covers an expanse twice the size of London has dried up because of an ongoing drought.

Poyang Lake in rural Jiangxi province is one of the country's most popular tourist attractions.

But the combination of drought and a new water storage facility upstream at the Three Gorges reservoir - the world's biggest dam - has caused water levels to drop to dangerously low levels.

Wish we wouldnt mess with what Ma Nature has put in place ...unintended consequences

Only made it to 76.1F/24.5C here today. Was still dry.

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 5:53 PM PST on January 21, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
71 °F/21.67 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 11%
Dew Point: 14 °F/-10 °C

Wind: 5 mph from the East
Pressure: 30.05 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Quoting 185. PedleyCA:
Only made it to 76.1F/24.5C here today. Was still dry.

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 5:53 PM PST on January 21, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
71 °F/21.67 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 11%
Dew Point: 14 °F/-10 °C

Wind: 5 mph from the East
Pressure: 30.05 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles


Wow Ped..
Thats not good it's so dry..
11% RH right now for you..
When was the last time you had moisture?
pedley getting to 51 tonight then in the 40s tomorrow...
Quoting 180. KoritheMan:

Always a good feeling. Keep up the good work.
I had a reporter for a major newspaper telling me that I'm his go-to guy as well as my HS teacher saying I called the snow event a week ago (actually, I didn't pick up on ENC event until 2 days ago).
Temps dropping...

Quoting 186. pcola57:


Wow Ped..
Thats not good it's so dry..
11% RH right now for you..
When was the last time you had moisture?


It was in the 4-5% the other day, this is improved. Been dry along time. just like me....lol
Quoting 187. Dakster:
pedley getting to 51 tonight then in the 40s tomorrow...


Get out the Arctic gear.....lol
Quoting 182. pcola57:


Great Washi.. :)
I never tried it but does snow make for a good adult beverage?

PS..
I hope you get snow up to your..Elbows..Lol.. :)
The powdery snow makes for a nice design or a nice "topper" for your drinks.But with all these pollutants I would just stick to the bottles :).
Quoting 192. washingtonian115:
The powdery snow makes for a nice design or a nice "topper" for your drinks.But with all these pollutants I would just stick to the bottles :).
Do you love how the snow makes the nights so bright i swear it seems like it is daytime.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
709 PM CST Tuesday Jan 21 2014

Sounding discussion...

Flight terminated at 107.9k feet about 80 miles downrange over the
Gulf of Mexico about 70 miles south of Biloxi. Airmass is very dry
with the entire column considerably cooler than 24 hours ago.
Precipitable water at an arid 0.22 inches. Frontal inversion
located at about 880 mb...close to 4000 feet. North winds near the
surface become northwest at about 700 mb. Wind speeds increase to
50 knots as close as 1 mile above the surface...with a maximum of 122
knots at 36.2k feet. 35

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 320 PM CST Tuesday Jan 21 2014/

Discussion...

a series of cold fronts will keep conditions colder and drier than
normal through the period. Rain chances remain meager...20 percent
or less...through the entire period for most areas. If this
pattern continues...we could very well see one of the coldest
januaries on record at almost all of our major reporting stations.

Strongest cold air advection has been a little slower to kick in
today than previously thought. Temperatures have remained mostly
steady last few hours instead of starting to fall...but it looks
like we/re finally starting to see temperatures dropping across
northwestern portions of the area. Expect a sharp drop off after
sunset as winds begin to die down. Dewpoints in the teens and
clear skies will allow for effective radiative cooling tonight.
Expect freezing temperatures to impact all areas away from the
immediate Louisiana coast tonight. A hard freeze warning is in
effect for southwest Mississippi...coastal Mississippi...and the
Florida parishes of Louisiana. A freeze warning is in effect for
the remainder of the area with the exception of immediate coastal
areas of southeast la. Though the Baton Rouge metropolitan area has already
experienced several freezes this season and thus did not require a
freeze warning for a moderate freeze...went ahead and included
them in the freeze warning in order to avoid a gap between the
hard freeze warning and freeze warning.

The cold high pressure will become centered near the area on
Wednesday leading to another cool day. Highs are expected to top
out near or just above 50 degrees...which is roughly 10 degrees
below normal for this time of year.

As the high shifts southward into the Gulf late Wednesday...winds
will become west or southwesterly across much of the area. This
will help keep temperatures from plummeting quite as far Wednesday
night. Still expect below normal temperatures...but any freezing
conditions would be limited to the northern portions of the
area...and even then would only last a few hours.

Next cold front arrives on Thursday.

The surface feature should
sweep through the local area by middle morning accompanied by a wind
shift to the north and the onset of cold air advection.
Temperatures across northern areas will struggle to reach 50
degrees. The more southern areas will top out in the middle 50s.
Coldest air arrives Thursday night...though just how cold it will
get is still uncertain. 00z GFS ensemble guidance had come into
better agreement compared to yesterday...but that/S definitely a
relative term as there is still a temperature spread of around 10
degrees most places. This is compared to the 20 degree spreads
just 24 hours ago. Am currently carrying temperatures that are close to
the 12z mex guidance. Depending on location...the this forecast is
generally near or a couple below the 00z GFS ensemble mean. If the
current forecast verifies...we will be looking at another hard
freeze across much of the northern half of the area and a light to
moderate freeze for the South Shore away from the immediate coast.

Another wrinkle in the forecast concerns how quickly clouds and
moisture associated with the upper level feature will move out of
the area. Operational model runs continue to suggest that the
majority of the moisture will be south and west of the local area
by the time the cold air arrives...though ensemble solutions
continue to show larger ranges in possibility. At least one member
is indicating likely probability of precipitation for Thursday night...though this seems
way over done. In deference to the persistent trends of the
operational runs...have lowered probability of precipitation after midnight and changed
wording to slight chance of snow flurries...though even flurries
are questionable at this point. The takeaway here is that even if
any snow flakes do manage to fall from the sky Thursday night
...
there should be no accumulation and no real impact.

Friday looks to be one of the coldest days with afternoon temperatures
forecast to top out in the low 40s. Thankfully it looks like winds
should be dying off by Friday morning...so that should help
keep wind chills in check.

A slow warming trend will begin Saturday with afternoon high
temperatures rising 5 to 10 degrees each day...and a return to
near normal temperatures for Sunday and Monday. A weak inverted
trough moving eastward through the northern Gulf of Mexico will
bring isolated to scattered showers mainly to the coastal areas
over the weekend...with the next front possibly impacting the area
by late Monday.
Los Angeles/USC Campus

Current Conditions
Clear
Clear
20.9°
Feels Like 20.9°
N
0
Variable
Sunrise 6:56 AM
Sunset 5:12 PM
Moon Waning Gibbous

Tomorrow is forecast to be Cooler than today.
Conditions
Pressure 1018 hPa
Visibility 16.1 kilometers
Clouds Clear

That beta site is funny, it is working in C
Quoting 193. Climate175:
Do you love how the snow makes the nights so bright i swear it seems like it is daytime.
Yes it does!.The lights radiating off of the snow are very beautiful indeed.Expect a lot of nights like these for a while.
Quoting 194. Patrap:
In deference to the persistent trends of the
operational runs...have lowered probability of precipitation after midnight and changed
wording to slight chance of snow flurries...though even flurries
are questionable at this point. The takeaway here is that even if
any snow flakes do manage to fall from the sky Thursday night...
there should be no accumulation and no real impact.


First mention of flurries that I know of our way this year Pat..
If you get it and I don't,I'm gonna be jealous.. :)
Quoting 191. PedleyCA:


Get out the Arctic gear.....lol


I also am getting something you desperately need. RAIN.
Got 8" total for this storm. Not too shabby :p

Might have gotten more but I measured 8". Maybe the blowing got hold of it because somebody near me has reported 13".
Quoting 198. Dakster:


I also am getting something you desperately need. RAIN.


Yup, sometimes you get the elevator, sometimes you just get the Shaft!

Quoting 194. Patrap:

At least one member
is indicating likely probability of precipitation for Thursday night...though this seems
way over done. In deference to the persistent trends of the
operational runs...have lowered probability of precipitation after midnight and changed
wording to slight chance of snow flurries...though even flurries
are questionable at this point. The takeaway here is that even if
any snow flakes do manage to fall from the sky Thursday night
...

What, you mean the chance of snow here was always... conditional?

Say it ain't so!
And the miracle continues, as it is still heavy snow here...
Not gonna measure though till all is said and done. I know its more than 6" though!
Quoting 171. wxchaser97:
While the East Coast is getting a good snowstorm, I'm sitting here with cold, calm skies. A couple clippers are expected to come through tomorrow and Friday night-Saturday. Tomorrow's should only bring Coating-2", but the next could provide a little more. These next rounds of snow should put at least Detroit, and probably Flint, into their snowiest January's on record. Could be something noteworthy at the end of the month, but that is a ways away. Very cold temperatures will persist as well, guaranteeing January being below average for temps. It's definitely been the best winter since 2010-2011.

Quoting 174. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sigh. Winter Weather Advisory was just cancelled for my area.





Yes it's had twice as many invisible flurries.

And I can't even get a winter weather advisory..It's been forever since I had one for something real, and the few we did have were borderline and didnt materialize at all
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 7:53 PM CST on January 21, 2014
Overcast
-7 °F/21.65 °C
Overcast
Windchill: -18 °F/27.78 °C
Humidity: 72%
Dew Point: -14 °F/25.56 °C

Wind: 5 mph from the SSW
Pressure: 30.19 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

70.0 here at my place....
I am about to say my final totals were 7-8 inches. This was a nice snowstorm! Now we can start planning for Sunday's snowstorm.
Toronto Pearson, CA (Airport)
Updated: 9:00 PM EST on January 21, 2014
Partly Cloudy
-2 °F / -19 °C
Partly Cloudy
Windchill: -22 °F / -30 °C
Humidity: 71%
Dew Point: -9 °F / -23 °C
Wind: 14 mph / 22 km/h / 6.2 m/s from the NNW
Pressure: 30.22 in / 1023 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 15.0 miles / 24.1 kilometers




Wow, each run has slowly put more snow to the south of me and giving me about 2 inches...


KSAT earlier brought up a scenario that there would be a kink off the Texas Coast that was showing signs of a possible development of a low pressure system and if that was to happen. He said "there would be a lot of happy kids out here". I am getting the NAM could possibly be catching onto this scenario and raising snowfall totals?
208. txjac
Quoting 207. SouthCentralTx:



Wow, each run has slowly put more snow to the south of me and giving me about 2 inches...


KSAT earlier brought up a scenario that there would be a kink off the Texas Coast that was showing signs of a possible development of a low pressure system and if that was to happen. He said "there would be a lot of happy kids out here". I am getting the NAM could possibly be catching onto this scenario and raising snowfall totals?


Budge it a little further north east and I will be happy
Quoting 205. Climate175:
I am about to say my final totals were 7-8 inches. This was a nice snowstorm! Now we can start planning for Sunday's snowstorm.
Where are you.?
Quoting 209. hydrus:
Where are you.?
Somewhere between Baltimore and Washington D.C.Howard county M.D.
Quoting 211. washingtonian115:
Somewhere between Baltimore and Washington D.C.Howard county M.D.
Thanks Wash..How much snow have you had.?
Quoting 212. hydrus:
Thanks Wash..How much snow have you had.?
Welcome Hydrus.I have 8 inches and so does my neighbor although I was being sprayed in the face with snow and biting wind.But it is suppose to be the coldest week on average for D.C and it will certainly be living up to that.I see in post 210 the storms are lining up..and with the Arctic air in place seems that our snow season has just gotten more interesting.
Not a good day for the doc to post how warm 2013 was! All I can say bring back GW and send this cold weather back up North where it belongs! I am happy for all who love the Snow and cold!
215. wxmod
These Pacific storms are like Santa Claus, only, instead of bringing ipods, the storms bring all the pollution that goes into making ipods. So here it comes. Merry Christmas.

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

Europe Divides Over More Ambitious Pollution Limits (numerous articles on this today)

Bill Gates Sees Almost No Poor Countries Left by 2035 I doubt it.

* Bananas are Chemicals, Too Perhaps not worthy of a highlight but quirky nonetheless.

And the T-shirt line


!!! Scotland had a glacier up to 1700s, say scientists

Flood funds gap 'puts 250,000 homes at risk' (UK)

* Seeing Things: A New Transparent Display System Could Provide Heads-Up Data

!!! Energy-Dense Sugar Battery Created


(3:50)

Air Pollution from Asia Affecting World's Weather We knew this.

* Turkeys Inspire Smartphone-Capable Early Warning System for Toxins

!!! Changing Landscapes Not Global Warming to Blame for Increased Flood Risk

* Constructed Wetlands Save Frogs, Birds Threatened With Extinction

*** Study: Electric Drive Vehicles Have Little Impact On US Pollutant Emissions

*** First Infrared Satellite Monitoring of Peak Pollution Episodes in China

*** Food security, rural environment top China's policy agenda in 2014

Arizona city denies claims from Yarnell Hill Fire

Zebra mussels found in another North Texas lake

Australia to go ahead with shark 'kill' zones

!!! A quarter of world's sharks and rays at risk of extinction, say scientists

Keystone XL pipeline's southern section to open on Wednesday

*** Utah residents battle long bout of air pollution

West Virginia politicians consider chemical regulation after spill

*** Report finds doctors reluctant to link oil sands with health issues

The New Arctic Frontier: Follow the Heat

* Scientists create anti-atom beam but use it for good, not evil

* Mushrooms used to clean up urban stream (courtesy of etxwx)
Quoting 215. wxmod:
These Pacific storms are like Santa Claus, only, instead of bringing ipods, the storms bring all the pollution that goes into making ipods. So here it comes. Merry Christmas.

Lol that specific storm might affect us on Sunday LOL
About 6.5" of snow. What a day!
For the record it was I who created the T-shirt ;)

Quoting 213. washingtonian115:
Welcome Hydrus.I have 8 inches and so does my neighbor although I was being sprayed in the face with snow and biting wind.But it is suppose to be the coldest week on average for D.C and it will certainly be living up to that.I see in post 210 the storms are lining up..and with the Arctic air in place seems that our snow season has just gotten more interesting.
Interesting indeed. I am watching for a damaging winter storm at the end of the month.
I'm cold...
ATTENTION
If you are in the D.C area and do not have to go anywhere tonight please stay in doors.Even the snow plows are having a hard time due to ice forming under the snow that has fallen.This is in part due to the pavement being warm earlier in the morning with the first snow turning into slush and then as temps fell and the snow stared coming down hard what ever that was there first froze.Be very very careful!.Traveling is not advised and accidents have become common!.
Quoting 220. hydrus:
Interesting indeed. I am watching for a damaging winter storm at the end of the month.
That will be the biggest out of all of them you think ?
Quoting 203. GeorgiaStormz:





Yes it's had twice as many invisible flurries.

And I can't even get a winter weather advisory..It's been forever since I had one for something real, and the few we did have were borderline and didnt materialize at all

Keep your head up! I've been reading rumblings that our chances may increase around the 30th
Quoting 221. presslord:
I'm cold...
Turn on the oven, open wide, set at 350 degrees. If bitter cold , turn on all burners..:)..Greetings Press.
Got approximately a foot of snow around my area, however with the wind i don't know if that is 100% accurate
00z is coming out so we will analyze that.
Quoting 224. georgia325:

Keep your head up! I've been reading rumblings that our chances may increase around the 30th


They keep coming and going
Quoting 223. Climate175:
That will be the biggest out of all of them you think ?
It is too early to say. February will have a brief warm up, but there are signs of at least to major events. The late January storm depending on where it originates will be significant.
Quoting 229. hydrus:
It is too early to say. February will have a brief warm up, but there are signs of at least to major events. The late January storm depending on where it originates will be at least very significant.
Ya watch it be the one.
MONA is confused over what to do with the ongoing central Plains drought it seems.

Boring....
Temperature's goin' down like a fat girl on prom night...
Quoting 232. CaribBoy:
Boring....
My favorite catchphrase from this blog.
I hope global warming steps it up a notch, I'm freezing here in Florida.............
Quoting 232. CaribBoy:
Boring....
It should be dry season right now.
What people in D.C do when we get snow!.Lol.I cant even lie..Why is it so true?.
Link
Quoting 233. presslord:
Temperature's goin' down like a fat girl on prom night...


Great, another catchy phrase I won't be able to use in church against an annoying person because I will be blasted out with "That's mean!" by my peers.
Probably going to have a $250 HEATING bill this month in Florida.........
Quoting 233. presslord:
Temperature's goin' down like a fat girl on prom night...
Oh, it's so nice to have you back on here...
Nuclear Event in USA on Wednesday, 22 January, 2014 at 03:59 (03:59 AM) UTC.
Description
The Perry nuclear power plant is leaking tritium, a radioactive form of water with a half-life of more than 12 years. The radioactive water has been found in groundwater at concentrations more than twice the federal drinking water limit outside of a building where the leak was discovered Monday. No other, more dangerous radioactive isotopes were found. Plant owner FirstEnergy said the tritium has not made its way into the plant's larger under-drain system designed to collect groundwater from under the entire site. Nor has the isotope been found in other groundwater test sites on the property or into nearby Lake Erie. "It was found in one sample area next to the building. I know of at least five other areas that have been sampled and there have been no indications of tritium beyond that one," said Jennifer Young, FirstEnergy nuclear spokeswoman. "We are doing additional sampling today. Any groundwater flows into the plant's under-drain system," she said. "It has not left the plant boundaries." Perry engineers reported the problem to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the NRC's on-site inspectors, as well as to county and state emergency agencies about 1:40 a.m. Tuesday. "Actions are in progress to stop the leak," the Nuclear Regulatory Commission report said. Engineers were still working late Tuesday afternoon to seal it. Workers discovered the leak Monday in a valve on a water line that carries reactor water back to the reactor after it has run through the plant's steam turbine and then been condensed back into water. The leaky valve was in a pipe contained in a hallway-sized steam tunnel running from the turbine and generator building through a second, auxiliary equipment building and then back into the reactor containment building, said Young. She could not say when the leak began. She described it as a small spray of water and steam, which cameras monitoring the tunnel picked up. David Lochbaum, nuclear safety engineer with the Union of Concerned Scientists, which is not opposed to nuclear energy, praised the company for reporting the leak even though it appears to be minor.
It's always like a Christmas Day whenever a long time members come back on here :)
Great news!! Oughta warm things up nicely!

Quoting 242. Skyepony:
Nuclear Event in USA on Wednesday, 22 January, 2014 at 03:59 (03:59 AM) UTC.
Description
The Perry nuclear power plant is leaking tritium, a radioactive form of water with a half-life of more than 12 years. The radioactive water has been found in groundwater at concentrations more than twice the federal drinking water limit outside of a building where the leak was discovered Monday. No other, more dangerous radioactive isotopes were found. Plant owner FirstEnergy said the tritium has not made its way into the plant's larger under-drain system designed to collect groundwater from under the entire site. Nor has the isotope been found in other groundwater test sites on the property or into nearby Lake Erie. "It was found in one sample area next to the building. I know of at least five other areas that have been sampled and there have been no indications of tritium beyond that one," said Jennifer Young, FirstEnergy nuclear spokeswoman. "We are doing additional sampling today. Any groundwater flows into the plant's under-drain system," she said. "It has not left the plant boundaries." Perry engineers reported the problem to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the NRC's on-site inspectors, as well as to county and state emergency agencies about 1:40 a.m. Tuesday. "Actions are in progress to stop the leak," the Nuclear Regulatory Commission report said. Engineers were still working late Tuesday afternoon to seal it. Workers discovered the leak Monday in a valve on a water line that carries reactor water back to the reactor after it has run through the plant's steam turbine and then been condensed back into water. The leaky valve was in a pipe contained in a hallway-sized steam tunnel running from the turbine and generator building through a second, auxiliary equipment building and then back into the reactor containment building, said Young. She could not say when the leak began. She described it as a small spray of water and steam, which cameras monitoring the tunnel picked up. David Lochbaum, nuclear safety engineer with the Union of Concerned Scientists, which is not opposed to nuclear energy, praised the company for reporting the leak even though it appears to be minor.
245. etxwx
Now here's something we don't see every day...
From the Lake Charles LA NWS:
Thursday Night: Colder...cloudy. A slight chance of rain in the evening...then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow in the morning... Then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs around 40. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Well, okay...it's only a slight chance...
Hope everyone is staying warm and enjoying the white fluffy stuff!
00z
Quoting 246. Climate175:
Looking promising :).I'm getting 1987 vibes.
Quoting 247. washingtonian115:
Looking promising :).I'm getting 1987 vibes.
Yep :) This pattern can support anything at this point for us!
Quoting 236. Climate175:
It should be dry season right now.


It is :(((

...and it's only january!!
Quoting 249. CaribBoy:


It is :(((

...and it's only january!!
Don't worry rainy season will come with full force this season i hope, unlike 2013.
Quoting 250. Climate175:
Don't worry rainy season will come with full force this season i hope, unlike 2013.
If you don't mind can you post the rest of the run?.TIA.
Quoting 251. washingtonian115:
If you don't mind can you post the rest of the run?.TIA.
Sure!
Look here another storm forming around the 29th.
Quoting 254. Climate175:
The clipper pattern conitnues.This is all leading up to the big storm that Saturday (The 1st).
Another possible snow chance Feb 1st. PS. also keep in mind that that gulf moisture might be in play in the next few runs.
Again on Feb 2nd.
Thanks Climate175.I'm going to bed now with the possibility of more snow on my mind coming the next two weeks.Good night.
Quoting 258. washingtonian115:
Thanks Climate175.I'm going to bed now with the possibility of more snow on my mind coming the next two weeks.Good night.
Good Night Washi.
Just a heads up for fellow MET students, I am taking my first course in atmospheric dynamics, and for those who say you hate math, be prepared to study up on your math skills, because the schedule for the entire first 1/3 of this class is substantial difficulty mathematics before we even do any meteorology.

Make sure you know everything soundly through Calculus and a little bit of ODE is being introduced.

Don't worry as much about Trig substitution and numerous integration methods though. But be prepared to derive a lot of equations and formulas using methods in Calculus. Definitely know series and summations as well.

Again, you'll have to learn to not hate math, because deriving calculus is a lot harder than just taking derivatives and integrals of functions, and we do a LOT of deriving so far in my MET classes. Although its more difficult, it helps you learn the math better and how to apply it practically better.

At least it does for me anyway.

Quoting 261. Jedkins01:
Just a heads up for fellow MET students, I am taking my first course in atmospheric dynamics, and for those who say you hate math, be prepared to study up on your math skills, because the schedule for the entire first 1/3 of this class is substantial difficulty mathematics before we even do any meteorology.

Make sure you know everything soundly through Calculus and a little bit of ODE is being introduced.

Don't worry as much about Trig substitution and numerous integration methods though. But be prepared to derive a lot of equations and formulas using methods in Calculus. Definitely know series and summations as well.

Again, you'll have to learn to not hate math, because deriving calculus is a lot harder than just taking derivatives and integrals of functions, and we do a LOT of deriving so far in my MET classes. Although its more difficult, it helps you learn the math better and how to apply it practically better.

At least it does for me anyway.



I loved math until BC Calc this year, Jedkins.

*cries softly* I've heard that the hardest part in BC Calc was series and summations...
000
FXUS62 KTAE 220248
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Current forecast remains on track for the rest of this evening.
Just made a few tweaks to the hourly grids to reflect current
forecast thinking, and dropped the Wind Chill Advisory for Dixie,
Taylor, and Lafayette counties in Florida. Based on latest model
guidance and factoring in upstream observations, it does not
appear wind chill advisory criteria (wind chill values less than
20 degrees) will be met for the above listed counties.

Otherwise expect a cold and windy night. An elongated surface
high pressure will continue to slide eastward overnight, but the
pressure gradient will remain sufficiently tight to keep the wind
gusty overnight. Strong cold air advection behind the cold
frontal passage earlier this evening will allow for temperatures
to drop rapidly over the next couple of hours. Although the wind
is making it feel colder, it is actually limiting the actual
temperature from dropping further. This is because when upper level
winds are mixed down to the surface, they warm adiabatically
offsetting the radiative processes of cooling. Stay Warm!


I love how the NWS here on campus will throw in some nice explanations to the public, I've met a handful of the forecasters here, they are great people.

Quoting 263. Astrometeor:


I loved math until BC Calc this year, Jedkins.

*cries softly* I've heard that the hardest part in BC Calc was series and summations...



It is, I honestly hate series and summations, mainly because it can take a lot of working out to find a pattern. Just the fact that they are continuous functions is psychologically depressing even though you don't need to find infinite terms lol.

The worst is definitely power series though, they are brutal.

The worst of all is solving O.D.E.'s using power series, it takes like 2 full pages of work to find a solution for one problem, it does make you want to cry.

Thankfully I haven't done anything with power series in meteorology, yet anyway.


I think the other reason I don't like them is that they are so dry, they remind of an application of mathematics that ONLY math lovers like, lol. They are important though in meteorology for finding approximations in use for computer models though.
Whoever posted that image of the frosty man got recognition on NWS Miami's twitter page, and by AccuWeather.
When the norm of the partition becomes infinitely small.....
Quoting 267. BaltimoreBrian:
When the norm of the partition becomes infinitely small.....


-_- Shut it. I ain't ready yet. Want to focus right now on my integration and logistical curves.
Quoting 869. ColoradoBob1:
The most important climate change article ever posted , it's long and it's well written , please read all of it :

Green Capitalism: The God That Failed

Link


As soaring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions drove global CO2 concentrations past 400 parts per million in May 2013, shell-shocked climate scientists warned that unless we urgently adopt "radical" measures to suppress GHG emissions (50 percent cuts in emissions by 2020, 90 percent by 2050) we're headed for an average temperature rise of 3 degrees or 4 degrees Celsius before the end of the century. Four degrees might not seem like much, but make no mistake: Such an increase will be catastrophic for our species and most others. Humans have never experienced a rise of 4 degrees in average temperatures. But our ancestors experienced a four-degree cooler world. That was during the last ice age, the Wisconsin Stage (26,000 to 13,300 years ago). At that time, there were two miles of ice on top of where I'm sitting right now in New York City. In a four-degree warmer world "Heat waves of undreamt-of-ferocity will scorch the Earth's surface as the climate becomes hotter than anything humans have ever experienced. ... There will be "no ice at either pole." "Global warming of this magnitude would leave the whole planet without ice for the first time in nearly 40 million years." Sea levels will rise 25 meters - submerging Florida, Bangladesh, New York, Washington DC, London, Shanghai, the coastlines and cities where nearly half the world's people presently live. Freshwater aquifiers will dry up; snow caps and glaciers will evaporate - and with them, the rivers that feed the billions of Asia, South America and California. The "wholesale destruction of ecosystems" will bring on the collapse of agriculture around much of the world. "Russia's harsh cold will be a distant memory" as "temperatures in Europe will resemble the Middle East. ... The Sahara will have crossed the Strait of Gibraltar and be working its way north into the heart of Spain and Portugal. ... With food supplies crashing, humanity's grip on its future will become ever more tentative." Yet long before the temperature increase hits four degrees, the melting will have begun thawing the permafrost of the Arctic, releasing vast quantities of methane buried under the Arctic seas and the Siberian and North American tundra, accelerating GHG concentrations beyond any human power to stop runaway warming and sealing our fate as a species.

..more'
270. jpsb
There will be "no ice at either pole." "Global warming of this magnitude would leave the whole planet without ice for the first time in nearly 40 million years."


Meanwhile back in the real world




Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday


Meanwhile in the real Cryosphere Science world.

nsidc.org

National Snow & Ice Data Center

CATEGORY ARCHIVES: ANTARCTICA
January is shaping up to be the coldest in a long time for locations east of the Rocky Mountains. The GFS shows continued shots of arctic air through early February.
Quoting 272. TropicalAnalystwx13:
January is shaping up to be the coldest in a long time for locations east of the Rocky Mountains. The GFS shows continued shots of arctic air through early February.
Tell me..Its 4 degrees here and 10 to 20.
Quoting 273. Gearsts:


MJO/Kelvin waves,you have to love them and their extremes. Let's see what happens in the next 7 days to see if it continues to rise.
Good morning everyone!
I'm currently ill with the flu, but at least it means a day at home :)
It was a beautiful day here earlier but the clouds have returned now, still above normal temps at 7°c.

UK rain radar


View from my house. (I don't know why it's sideways!)
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 29 degrees with a wind chill of 28. We have a chance of snow or freezing rain tomorrow night and a chance of snow on Friday morning. Of course for Louisiana it's snow flurries, not accumulating snow.

Hope you feel better soon, Zac.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Doug! I have ground some grits!
Quoting 266. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whoever posted that image of the frosty man got recognition on NWS Miami's twitter page, and by AccuWeather.


Here's one of them (frostyman). Maybe tonight S.Fl will bring him back to life.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Forgot this link.

The 10 Snowiest Colleges in the US


LOL, I guess they didn't look at Michigan Tech - the record high is 355", record low is 81" and the Keweenaw has had 201" so far this year and 38" reported on the ground.... just to the north a few miles. Very kool area, at least in the summer when I visit lol
Cold air pooling up down in S.W. Florida. Expected 38 in Fort Myers with temperatures near freezing inland with frost likely.
282. VR46L
Just a drive by and I don't know how to embed
Its from the Nasa site
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003800/a003 887/

GEOS-5 Model of 2005 Hurricane Season


Back to lurkin

Current Conditions at 8600 feet in Ecuador:

The same as yesterday, the day before...going on 10 years now...the same every day.

High 72
Low 59

Mostly cloudy, chance of rain.

Climate change? Not here.

I can't find any climate change scientists. I've been looking for them.

My quality of life just increased, however.
Grits are made of hominy. Arroz para morocho is lightly ground hominy.

I have to grind it down further to get course ground grits.

Mine are not magic grits. My grits take 45 minutes to cook to perfection.

I take pride in my grits, just like any other self-respecting Southerner.
Quoting 269. Patrap:


As soaring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions drove global CO2 concentrations past 400 parts per million in May 2013, shell-shocked climate scientists warned that unless we urgently adopt "radical" measures to suppress GHG emissions (50 percent cuts in emissions by 2020, 90 percent by 2050) we're headed for an average temperature rise of 3 degrees or 4 degrees Celsius before the end of the century. Four degrees might not seem like much, but make no mistake: Such an increase will be catastrophic for our species and most others. Humans have never experienced a rise of 4 degrees in average temperatures. But our ancestors experienced a four-degree cooler world. That was during the last ice age, the Wisconsin Stage (26,000 to 13,300 years ago). At that time, there were two miles of ice on top of where I'm sitting right now in New York City. In a four-degree warmer world "Heat waves of undreamt-of-ferocity will scorch the Earth's surface as the climate becomes hotter than anything humans have ever experienced. ... There will be "no ice at either pole." "Global warming of this magnitude would leave the whole planet without ice for the first time in nearly 40 million years." Sea levels will rise 25 meters - submerging Florida, Bangladesh, New York, Washington DC, London, Shanghai, the coastlines and cities where nearly half the world's people presently live. Freshwater aquifiers will dry up; snow caps and glaciers will evaporate - and with them, the rivers that feed the billions of Asia, South America and California. The "wholesale destruction of ecosystems" will bring on the collapse of agriculture around much of the world. "Russia's harsh cold will be a distant memory" as "temperatures in Europe will resemble the Middle East. ... The Sahara will have crossed the Strait of Gibraltar and be working its way north into the heart of Spain and Portugal. ... With food supplies crashing, humanity's grip on its future will become ever more tentative." Yet long before the temperature increase hits four degrees, the melting will have begun thawing the permafrost of the Arctic, releasing vast quantities of methane buried under the Arctic seas and the Siberian and North American tundra, accelerating GHG concentrations beyond any human power to stop runaway warming and sealing our fate as a species.

..more'


There would be no ice at either pole with a 3-4C rise? Yeah I guess Vostok station on Antarctica will become the ideal summer holiday destination, 24 hour sunbathing and all. Who writes that shrill nonsense?It's hyperbolic scare quotes like the above that give the factual scientific basis of AGW a bad name.

Anyway, marginal chances of breaking our winter snow drought tomorrow from a weak occlusion crossing British Isles, models mostly teasing the possibility of wintry weather over the next ten days but each shot is marginal. Cold rain seems more likely.
Quoting 283. CycloneOz:
Current Conditions at 8600 feet in Ecuador:

The same as yesterday, the day before...going on 10 years now...the same every day.

High 72
Low 59

Mostly cloudy, chance of rain.

Climate change? Not here.

I can't find any climate change scientists. I've been looking for them.

My quality of life just increased, however.
Grits are made of hominy. Arroz para morocho is lightly ground hominy.

I have to grind it down further to get course ground grits.

Mine are not magic grits. My grits take 45 minutes to cook to perfection.

I take pride in my grits, just like any other self-respecting Southerner.


Have no fear, the data is here.




Link
Just like most places in the world, the trend is evident in the regional record as well.

The link has historical data for the major cities as well. Where are you at in Ecuador? My wife used to teach there years ago.
Quoting 261. Jedkins01:
Just a heads up for fellow MET students, I am taking my first course in atmospheric dynamics, and for those who say you hate math, be prepared to study up on your math skills, because the schedule for the entire first 1/3 of this class is substantial difficulty mathematics before we even do any meteorology.

Make sure you know everything soundly through Calculus and a little bit of ODE is being introduced.

Don't worry as much about Trig substitution and numerous integration methods though. But be prepared to derive a lot of equations and formulas using methods in Calculus. Definitely know series and summations as well.

Again, you'll have to learn to not hate math, because deriving calculus is a lot harder than just taking derivatives and integrals of functions, and we do a LOT of deriving so far in my MET classes. Although its more difficult, it helps you learn the math better and how to apply it practically better.

At least it does for me anyway.




great...
atleast i like math
Quoting 204. PedleyCA:
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 7:53 PM CST on January 21, 2014
Overcast
-7 °F/21.65 °C
Overcast
Windchill: -18 °F/27.78 °C
Humidity: 72%
Dew Point: -14 °F/25.56 °C

Wind: 5 mph from the SSW
Pressure: 30.19 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

70.0 here at my place....


Who is doing the °F/°C , conversions at the Rhinelander airport? Is it really cold (F) or is it a nice Spring day (C)?
lol going down to 33 tonight!! :) i will bring him back to life! :P
Quoting 279. Sfloridacat5:


Here's one of them (frostyman). Maybe tonight S.Fl will bring him back to life.
Meanwhile, out West...
California statewide snowpack water content currently stands at 13 percent of normal for this date.
Sierra Nevada snowpack
FL Temps :) Brrrr.

The end of January is going out with a chill.

Not much rain across the US per the 0Z Euro except for FL. Could be a wet period coming across FL with such a deep persistant trough across the central & eastern US.

Quoting 290. StormWx:
FL Temps :) Brrrr.



39 here in Longwood and forecast calls for 33 tonight. We might actually get a freeze tonight. First one this winter.

0Z Euro temps! Lord Have Mercy!


December was the 4th warmest on record in the UK and January has been/looks to continue to be above average too. Quite a stark contrast to last year's winter where we had weeks of freezing temps and huge snow drifts even into March! Not one cold spell either this winter, which is a shame. :(
Quoting 295. Envoirment:
December was the 4th warmest on record in the UK and January has been/looks to continue to be above average too. Quite a stark contrast to last year's winter where we had weeks of freezing temps and huge snow drifts even into March! Not one cold spell either this winter, which is a shame. :(

Same thing for Holland, also it was the third Dec in a row to enter a top ten position. Though Dec '10 came in a coldest top ten position.
January will average mild too. But there is some suspense as a pool of Scandi deep freeze is inching westwards. Models suggest it will halt over or slightly north of Holland though. And as the US plunges in again that will restart those powerful Atlantic westerlies.
Quoting 295. Envoirment:
December was the 4th warmest on record in the UK and January has been/looks to continue to be above average too. Quite a stark contrast to last year's winter where we had weeks of freezing temps and huge snow drifts even into March! Not one cold spell either this winter, which is a shame. :(


From JB. Get ready because here it comes!

WINTER COMES TO EUROPE( WESTERN)
January 21 08:46 PM
Brutal cold has extended west into Scandinavia from its Asian source, but the mild and sometimes wild pattern that has dominated western Europe this winter is starting to turn a bit. This happend in the winter of 1994, as it was mild in January and cold in February. Yet another link to one of our winter analogs here in the states.
One thing we can not seem to do is develop any kind of major backing of the Asian ridge west into Iceland and Greenland. The very warm water in the N pac means that the blocking that has developed this year is over Alaska and over the top to north Asia. Chances are the fast jet on the eastern side of the eastern N American trough is helping stoke the ridge south of it ( subsidence part of the jet) and enhance the northeast Atlantic low. This turns southeast over the ridge toward Europe, but it keeps much of the air in Europe Atlantic in origin.
However the means the next 15 days show that the trough is going to dive southeast in the means over western Europe. The way western Europe gets very cold is to have blocking over Greenland and Iceland and this allows troughs to dive south thru Scandinavia and then turn southwest, with arctic air
This is not the case now

Days 1-5


Days 6-10


Days 11-15


What happens here will produce heavy snows in eastern and central interior Europe. Maritime air crashes into the arctic air from the east ( remember those big positives develop big highs, with east winds on their south side and southeast winds from Asian toward Europe on the west side)
So we see alot of snow the next 8 days.. the snow in the UK is from changes to snow mainly over the high ground, as the storms come over the UK with plenty of maritime air

Snowfall Map



meanwhile temps week 1 look like this.. then they cool further week two in the west..but you can see how nasty it is in the est


Then BAM!


The total is the coldest 16 day period of the winter..But as of now the kind of pattern we have seen to send the west into the deep feeze is not yet there. Certainly colder, but then again the Feb 94 analog was indicating that

Meanwhile Australia is on Fire! Looks at these temps! Yikes!

Also looks very wet across Northern & Western Australia.

Quoting 285. Naga5000:


Have no fear, the data is here.




Link
Just like most places in the world, the trend is evident in the regional record as well.

The link has historical data for the major cities as well. Where are you at in Ecuador? My wife used to teach there years ago.


This data you have found goes back to 1890 for Ecuador. Uh huh...okay.

Where exactly...because there are three distinct tropical zones here in Ecuador.

I prefaced my report with an altitude of 8600 feet. This is one zone.

Then...there are the valley zones (all lumped into one) and the Amazonia zone.

Once again, back to your data...it only shows one data point.

Now...you have two (via me.)

Where's the 3rd?

MY POINT: Looks like the climate scientists are NOT HERE!

Love this pattern we are in...

120 GFS snowfall forecast. Yes.

Good Morning/Evening.

Is the Antarctic Sea Ice extent expanding because the land ice meltwater on the ocean surface freezes easier?

It looked like the one cold anomaly for 2013 was in Antarctica right over the PIG. I also read that the Pine Island's slide into the ocean was self sustaining and may not be slowed by cooler temps. Anybody else know about that?

Why is there such a strong and consistent bias in temperature between NOAA measurements and NASA? Are there hot gages in one, or a warmer sea temp algorithm?
California sure wishes they had a chunk of that snow in the east.
Their lack of snow pack is a slow motion disaster. I pray this kink in the jet moves on and brings back snow and rain to them. They will be wishing for those Colorado floods, come spring.
With the fires, they may be wishing for them now.
Quoting 300. CycloneOz:


This data you have found goes back to 1890 for Ecuador. Uh huh...okay.

Where exactly...because there are three distinct tropical zones here in Ecuador.

I prefaced my report with an altitude of 8600 feet. This is one zone.

Then...there are the valley zones (all lumped into one) and the Amazonia zone.

Once again, back to your data...it only shows one data point.

Now...you have two (via me.)

Where's the 3rd?

MY POINT: Looks like the climate scientists are NOT HERE!



Dis you explore the link? Did you look at the methodology used? Did you see where the data came from? Did you notice this particular graph was the average of Ecuador as a whole? Did you see they had separate graphs by city?

Don't shoot the messenger and don't be so angry because your opinion is not in line with the observations. It's going to be okay. :)
Quoting 303. biff4ugo:
California sure wishes they had a chunk of that snow in the east.
Their lack of snow pack is a slow motion disaster. I pray this kink in the jet moves on and brings back snow and rain to them. They will be wishing for those Colorado floods, come spring.
With the fires, they may be wishing for them now.


Tell me about it. Looks dry for the next 2 weeks.

Quoting 304. Naga5000:


Dis you explore the link? Did you look at the methodology used? Did you see where the data came from? Did you notice this particular graph was the average of Ecuador as a whole? Did you see they had separate graphs by city?

Don't shoot the messenger and don't be so angry because your opinion is not in line with the observations. It's going to be okay. :)


Good morning Naga5000.
Quoting 306. StormTrackerScott:


Good morning Naga5000.


Good cold morning!
Ridge over Alaska and another south of Greenland spells cold weather for the US for the next 2 weeks. I was hoping for a warm up but that just doesn't appear to be the case.

lots of snow here!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
311. jpsb
Quoting 302. biff4ugo:
Good Morning/Evening.

It looked like the one cold anomaly for 2013 was in Antarctica right over the PIG. I also read that the Pine Island's slide into the ocean was self sustaining and may not be slowed by cooler temps. Anybody else know about that?




And then again maybe not
Lead author, Dr Pierre Dutrieux, from British Antarctic Survey (BAS) said: "We found ocean melting of the glacier was the lowest ever recorded, and less than half of that observed in 2010. This enormous, and unexpected, variability contradicts the widespread view that a simple and steady ocean warming in the region is eroding the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

One cold anomaly? Over the Pine Island Glacier?

Antarctica sets low temperature record of -135.8 degrees
RIP 1990-1999.
297. StormTrackerScott, as I have a visit, no time to say more than: thank you very much for the wonderful reply. Corrollary to '94 well found!