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2011: Year of the flood

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on January 21, 2011

The year 2010 was one the worst years in world history for high-impact floods. But just three weeks into the new year, 2011 has already had an entire year's worth of mega-floods. I'll recap here six remarkable floods that have already occurred this year.

Brazil
Brazil suffered its deadliest natural disaster in history on January 11, when torrential rains inundated a heavily populated, steep-sloped area about 40 miles north of Rio de Janeiro. Flash floods and mudslides from the heavy rains have claimed 902 lives, including at least 357 in Nova Friburgo and 323 in Teresópolis. Rainfall amounts of approximately 300 mm (12 inches) fell in just a few hours in the hardest-hit regions. Damage estimates are currently $1.2 billion, and 13,000 were left homeless. Latest rainfall forecasts from the GFS model show the heaviest rains during the coming week staying well south of the Rio de Janeiro area, which will give the flood region time to dry out and recover.


Figure 1. Flooded stream in Teresópolis. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Australia Queensland
Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history is now the Queensland flood of 2010 - 2011, with a price tag now as high as $30 billion. At least 31 have been killed since December in the floods, and another 40 are missing. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, in 2010 Australia had its wettest spring (September - November) since records began 111 years ago, with some sections of coastal Queensland receiving over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. Queensland typically has its rainiest years when La Niña events occur, due to the much warmer than average ocean temperatures that occur along the coast. The BOM noted, "Previous strong La Niña events, such as those of 1974 and 1955, have also been associated with widespread and severe flooding in eastern Australia. Sea surface temperatures off the Queensland coast in recent months have also been at or near record levels." The BOM's annual summary also reported, "Sea surface temperatures in the Australian region during 2010 were the warmest value on record for the Australian region. Individual high monthly sea surface temperature records were also set during 2010 in March, April, June, September, October, November and December. Along with favourable hemispheric circulation associated with the 2010 La Niña, very warm sea surface temperatures contributed to the record rainfall and very high humidity across eastern Australia during winter and spring." Queensland has an area the size of Germany and France combined, and 3/4 of the region has been declared a disaster zone. The latest GFS precipitation forecast for the coming week shows new heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches can be expected over the extreme northern portion of Queensland, but the majority of the state will receive lesser rains that should not further aggravate the flooding situation.


Figure 2. The airport, the Bruce Highway, and large swaths of Rockhampton, Australia, went under water due to flooding from the Fitzroy River on January 9, 2011. The town of 75,000 was completely cut off by road and rail, and food, water and medicine had to be brought in by boat and helicopter. Image credit: NASA.

Australia Victoria
From January 12 - 14, extremely heavy rains over the southern Australian state of Victoria caused major flooding that killed one person and caused hundreds of millions in damage. Kevin Parkyn, a senior forecaster with the Bureau of Meteorology said "Victoria is experiencing one of its worst flood events in its history" after "a week in which rainfall totals have been smashed in parts of Victoria". Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Terry Ryan said "It's the worst flood in western Victoria in their history as far as our records go in terms of the depth of water and the number of places affected." According to atmospheric moisture expert Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, extratropical storm systems like the one that affected Victoria get 70% of their moisture from the surrounding atmosphere, and 30% due to evaporation from the surface. Since the airmass that supplied Victoria with its flooding rains traveled over the already-flooded portions of Queensland to the north before reaching Victoria, the moisture from the Queensland floods contributed significantly to the Victoria floods. Little rain is predicted over Victoria during the coming week, fortunately.

100-year flood in Sri Lanka
As I reported in my previous post, at least 43 are dead and damage estimates are at $500 million in Sri Lanka, which suffered a 1-in-100 year flood this month.

South Africa
Heavy rains of up 345 mm (13.6") have fallen in South Africa so far this month, resulting in deadly floods that have killed 40 people. Seven of the country's nine provinces have been declared disaster zones. Agricultural damage alone from the floods is estimated at $145 million. Heavy rains and severe flooding have also affected neighboring Mozambique, where 13 people are dead and 13,000 homeless or suffering damaged homes. Neighboring Zimbabwe has seen its heaviest rains in 30 years in recent weeks, according to the nation's Civil Protection Unit, but severe flooding has not yet hit that nation. La Niña events commonly cause heavy rains in southern Africa. Sea surface temperatures off the east coast of South Africa were 0.2 - 0.4°C above average during December 2010--nowhere near record levels, but warm enough to contribute to enhanced rainfall.

Philippines
Very heavy rains since late December have triggered a major flooding disaster in the Philippines, where 40 are dead, 453,000 people displaced, and 1.2 million people affected. The heavy rains were caused when a cold front moved over the eastern Philippines and lingered for many days. Heavy rains are common in the Philippines during La Niña events, as unusually warm waters accumulate by the islands. This winter, the waters in the central Philippines (10N to 15N, 120E to 130E) were at the warmest levels in history--1.0°C above average during December. The exceptionally warm waters allowed more moisture than usual to evaporate into the air, enhancing rainfall.

Commentary
The year 2011 has begun with a remarkable number of high-impact floods world-wide, and much of the blame for this can be placed on the current La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center currently puts the La Niña event in the "strong" category, and whenever a La Niña or El Niño event reaches the strong category, major perturbations to global weather patterns occur. This typically results in record or near-record flooding in one or more regions of the globe. When one combines the impact of La Niña with the increase of global ocean temperatures of 0.5°C (0.9°F) over the past 50 years, which has put 4% more water vapor into the atmosphere since 1970, the result is a much increased chance of unprecedented floods. A 4% increase in atmospheric moisture may not sound like much, but it turns out that precipitation will increase by about 8% with that 4% moisture increase. Critically, it is the extreme rainfall events that tend to supply the increased rainfall. For example, (Groisman et al., 2004) found a 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events over the U.S. in the past century, and a 36% rise in cold season (October - April) "extreme" precipitation events (those in the 99.9% percentile--1 in 1000 events. These extreme rainfall events are the ones most likely to cause floods.

References
Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64.85.

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne, and T.L.Delworth, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate", Nature 415, 514-517 (31 January 2002) | doi:10.1038/415514a.

Santer, B.D., C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, G. A. Meehl, T. Nozawa, D. W. Pierce, P. A. Stott, W. M. Washington, and M. F. Wehner, 2007, "Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content", PNAS 2007 104: 15248-15253.

Trenberth, K.E., J. Fasullo, and L. Smith, 2005: "Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor", Climate Dynamics 24, 741-758.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting KoritheMan:


This particular excerpt of the DoI only proves that the people of the time believed in god. Nothing more.
U realize the excerpt is open to much wider interpretation than u allow, to wit:

- most, if not all, religions impute the existence of mankind to some "Creator" being. The makers of the DoI imo were not trying to force their personal version of the Creator on other Americans. Remember these r the pple who had run AWAY from the state-mandated C of E....

- in a very literal, physiological sense every single person in the world was "CREATED" by somebodies [i.e. parents]. To me, the writers of the DoI were just being logical in so stating. Even for an atheist, therefore, this statement is more than a sop to religious convention. It is a recognition that by dint of one's humanity, one has automatically certain inbuilt rights.

The philosophical game is still wide open....

Quoting washingtonian115:
For some non-odd reason I think we'll be hearing this music on the weather channel this year:Their famous hurricane alert music href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbxdyg5IvV0" target="_blank">Link


Considering they play it even during tropical storm landfalls (to my knowledge)...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow! Religion on the MAIN blog!!! and actually a well said comment, Jed. IMO half of the reason pple can't "see" God is because the pple who are supposed to be showing God to others, the Christians, are too busy projecting themselves rather than God. That's why I have a serious problem with people assuming that CHRISTIANS are automatically a part of the so-called Religious Right, or that American Christians are all Republican or Conservative in a political sense. (IMO, if political parties actually DID what they "say" they are going to do, the Democrats would sound more like Biblical Christians to me.... less judgemental, more willing to help others, etc.... lol) The reality is that being a Christian has nothing to do with your politics and IMO the best Christians are the ones who SHOW you their Christianity in the way they live instead of TELLING you how to live your life.... that's what Christ wanted from the very beginning.



"Acquire a peaceful spirit and thousands around you will be saved."
Quoting BahaHurican:


- in a very literal, physiological sense every single person in the world was "CREATED" by somebodies [i.e. parents]. To me, the writers of the DoI were just being logical in so stating. Even for an atheist, therefore, this statement is more than a sop to religious convention. It is a recognition that by dint of one's humanity, one has automatically certain inbuilt rights.


I actually particularly like this idea.
In case anyone is interested and missed it, I released my 2011 extended outlook for the Atlantic Hurricane Season yesterday in the early morning.

Blog Update

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Extended Outlook
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
In case anyone is interested and missed it, I released my 2011 extended outlook for the Atlantic Hurricane Season yesterday in the early morning.

Blog Update

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Extended Outlook


One thing you didn't touch on was that, while record SSTs do indeed favor enhanced tropical activity, if the SSTs are too warm, we can lose the Atlantic tripole, which is also a rather large contributor to upward vertical motion and instability. This was a rather large part of why so little tropical activity was seen last year prior to late August.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow! Religion on the MAIN blog!!! and actually a well said comment, Jed. IMO half of the reason pple can't "see" God is because the pple who are supposed to be showing God to others, the Christians, are too busy projecting themselves rather than God. That's why I have a serious problem with people assuming that CHRISTIANS are automatically a part of the so-called Religious Right, or that American Christians are all Republican or Conservative in a political sense. (IMO, if political parties actually DID what they "say" they are going to do, the Democrats would sound more like Biblical Christians to me.... less judgemental, more willing to help others, etc.... lol) The reality is that being a Christian has nothing to do with your politics and IMO the best Christians are the ones who SHOW you their Christianity in the way they live instead of TELLING you how to live your life.... that's what Christ wanted from the very beginning.

Of course, the other half of pple not "seeing" God has to do with the fact that people use the behaviour of Christians (who has Jed stated, are not yet perfect) as an excuse to deny the existence of God..... ;o)

I think it's a lot easier to tell other people how Christians should behave, whether or not you are actually one.... and since this is a Weather Blog, perhaps I should "render unto Caesar" and discuss weather....

I haven't read far enough down the page to see how much impact this latest front has had on FL wx, but the back edge of the front is just getting to Nassau about now, and the temps haven't dipped hugely. It's been mostly cloudy all day, though, a grey "wintry" day in that sense. However, I am very glad not to see a 10-degree drop the likes of which we were seeing last month.... Hopefully things will stay in that optimal winter temp range... 77 by day, 66 by night.... lol


In his book, Mere Christianity, C. S. Lewis wrote , 'When a man who accepts the Christian doctrine lives unworthily of it, it is much clearer to say he is a bad Christian than to say he is not a Christian.'

I have found that the good Christians I have met did not have let on about their faith...they simply acted according to what their faith expected of them. Those who always made it a point to make me aware of their faith have usually disappointed me in how they treated others.

I never understood that until I read his book and then it all made sense.


Quoting KoritheMan:


One thing you didn't touch on was that, while record SSTs do indeed favor enhanced tropical activity, if the SSTs are too warm, we can lose the Atlantic tripole, which is also a rather large contributor to upward vertical motion and instability. This was a rather large part of why so little tropical activity was seen last year prior to late August.
That's very true. Without the north Atlantic tripole, upward motion isn't focused as easily into the tropics. I'll fix that in a minute...
Quoting KoritheMan:


I actually particularly like this idea.
LOL... personally I subcribe to the Creator vs the creators, BUT certainly the room for the alternative interpretations is there. It's IMO one of the reasons why the US has been able to exist in its current formation for so very long... a lot of room for personal interpretation and live and let live... it's also why I find the hijacking of the moral high ground by the polito-religious "right"; it reduces the flexibilty of the US to bring the best minds to bear. Sad.
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL... personally I subcribe to the Creator vs the creators, BUT certainly the room for the alternative interpretations is there. It's IMO one of the reasons why the US has been able to exist in its current formation for so very long... a lot of room for personal interpretation and live and let live... it's also why I find the hijacking of the moral high ground by the polito-religious "right"; it reduces the flexibilty of the US to bring the best minds to bear. Sad.


How did they...'hijack the moral high ground'?


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's very true. Without the north Atlantic tripole, upward motion isn't focused as easily into the tropics. I'll fix that in a minute...


Though I'm unsure of how to actually predict it, you also neglected to mention the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), which is a periodic oscillation in the zonal winds along the equator in the stratosphere. IIRC, when the negative phase of the QBO (low-level easterlies) is present, enhanced hurricane activity in the deep tropics usually results, and vise versa.
@ calusakat:

By implying that all "Godly" people are Republicans.... and that all "unGodly" people are Democrats...

I strongly subscribe to the American concept of separation of church and state, because I believe people's religious backgrounds and political positions don't necessarily match up. There are too many individual differences...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Though I'm unsure of how to actually predict it, you also neglected to mention the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), which is a periodic oscillation in the zonal winds along the equator in the stratosphere. IIRC, when the negative phase of the QBO (low-level easterlies) is present, enhanced hurricane activity in the deep tropics usually results, and vise versa.
The correlation was strong up until the current active period. Since '95 the QBO-hurricane activity link has been dubious, at best.
Quoting BahaHurican:
@ calusakat:

By implying that all "Godly" people are Republicans.... and that all "unGodly" people are Democrats...

I strongly subscribe to the American concept of separation of church and state, because I believe people's religious backgrounds and political positions don't necessarily match up. There are too many individual differences...
I really don't fit the mold, there. Presslord and I, both, but in different ways.

Back L8R.
Quoting calusakat:


How did they...'hijack the moral high ground'?


Probably with a medium to heavy gauge moral high ground jack setting not so firmly on the filthy holy rock bottom moral ground jack.:) ..Good evening C.K..
Central NC:

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
STORM WILL DETERMINE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR OUR
REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A STORM TRACK FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO
WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING MUCH OF
THE PIEDMONT.

IF THIS TRACK DEVIATES MORE INLAND... THEN LESS OF A WINTER STORM
IMPACT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MORE RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT. DETAILS
OF THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM CONTINUE TO VARY. IT WILL
LIKELY BE MONDAY BEFORE THE FORECAST CAN BE FINE TUNED.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Though I'm unsure of how to actually predict it, you also neglected to mention the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), which is a periodic oscillation in the zonal winds along the equator in the stratosphere. IIRC, when the negative phase of the QBO (low-level easterlies) is present, enhanced hurricane activity in the deep tropics usually results, and vise versa.
It's actually the other way around.

"Hurricanes are more frequent when the 30-hPa winds are westerly; in this phase the vertical wind shear in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is reduced."

Impacts of the QBO on other atmospheric phenomena

The reason that I decided not to include the QBO into the extended outlook is because recent studies have revealed that the QBO no longer effects tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic as 'strongly' as before (say in the 1990's)...hence why CSU no longer uses it in their outlooks.

518. xcool
129 days 2011 hurricane season
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (11U)
11:00 AM EST January 23 2011
=========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category One (990 hPa) located 15.5S 148.9E, or 370 km east northeast of Cairns and 145 km northwest of Willis Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM in northern quadrant
100 NM in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.1S 151.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.1S 154.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.9S 157.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 17.1S 156.7E - 50 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Anthony has developed rapidly during the morning under a more favorable upper atmospheric environment, while moving rapidly to the east away from the Australian coast. Radar images from Willis Island [to the southeast] suggest a tight low level circulation with peripheral observations on southern and southwest flank now suggesting gales.

System likely to intensify and move east-southeast during the short to medium
term under the influence of an upper trough over the Coral Sea. Curved band pattern suggest DT 3.0, MET 2.5 using DT as FT 3.0.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
Quoting atmoaggie:
The correlation was strong up until the current active period. Since '95 the QBO-hurricane activity link has been dubious, at best.
That's one of the reasons why Gray / Klotzbach had to make extensive revisions to their forecast model[s] a while back....

Quoting atmoaggie:
I really don't fit the mold, there. Presslord and I, both, but in different ways.

Back L8R.
That's why I don't like the connection. In reality, some of the most ungodly people I can think of are Republicans, and some of the most genuinely saintly are Democrats.... I don't see why they should have to change... lol
HGW, do u have a forecast map 2 go with that?
Quoting xcool:
129 days 2011 hurricane season



129 more days of GW LOL
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's one of the reasons why Gray / Klotzbach had to make extensive revisions to their forecast model[s] a while back....

That's why I don't like the connection. In reality, some of the most ungodly people I can think of are Republicans, and some of the most genuinely saintly are Democrats.... I don't see why they should have to change... lol
Yet, among folks in this forum, and knowing them only by what they type, you might be surprised whom is "ungodly"...
atmo... that is Soooooo true.... lol

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW
11:00 AM CST January 23 2011
=======================================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (1001 hPa) located at 14.3S 128.8E, or about 75 kms west of Port Keats is reported as moving north at 3 knots.

The low is expected to move towards the west or northwest and may move over the northern Kimberley tomorrow. The low may intensify if it takes a more northerly track and remains over water.


Tropical Cyclone Anthony's track for the next 3 days.
08P (06F) WILMA


Situation Update No. 11
On 22.01.2011 at 19:12 GMT+2

The death toll from floods and mudslides in Brazil's southeastern state of Rio de Janeiro has climbed to 785. Officials say another 400 people are missing. Last week's devastating mudslides were unleashed by days of heavy rains. Rivers of mud leveled houses, threw cars on top of buildings and left at least 6,000 people homeless. Another 8,000 were forced to move to temporary housing. Flooding struck several towns in the mountainous Serrana region north of the city of Rio de Janeiro. It is being described as one of Brazil's worst natural disasters. President Dilma Rousseff's government allocated some $460 million in emergency aid for the affected areas, but survivors have criticized authorities for not providing enough help. Landslides and floods are common in Brazil, often affecting poor communities where shacks are built on steep, unstable hillsides.
Quoting BahaHurican:
atmo... that is Soooooo true.... lol



O.k. I'll bite! You show me an honest politician in any country and I will show you Jesus!

Evening all :)
Quoting doorman79:


O.k. I'll bite! You show me an honest politician in any country and I will show you Jesus!

Evening all :)
You do realize that in order to be all things to all men, u pretty much have to be God.... lol.... politicians can only pretend, which starts them off on the wrong foot honesty-wise... ;o)
I'm heading out of Starbucks in a few, so I'll get back wichu guys once I get home....
Quoting BahaHurican:
You do realize that in order to be all things to all men, u pretty much have to be God.... lol.... politicians can only pretend, which starts them off on the wrong foot honesty-wise... ;o)


True, but I know some folks that sure do think politicians of their beliefs are the next best thing!
Here are a couple of scary facts:

1.) This hurricane season will be using the names from the hyperactive 2005 season.

2.) ENSO conditions will be very similar to the 2005 season.

3.) Sea Surface Temperatures most of the Atlantic basin are able to support a hurricane.

4.) High tropical cyclone numbers have been forecasted by CSU, TSR, and Miami (lol :P).

I do not believe this coming season will be a good one at all. :|
In continuing current explosions due to fossil fuel use.. this was local for me.. gas tanker hit by a pickup on 528 overpass, the then "exploding tanker" went over the side of the overpass, landing on SR3. I was up at KSC yesterday when this happened. Had to find another way home. The local news video has some insane pics in it.

Brevard County Fire-Rescue personnel, hazardous material teams and a Kennedy Space Center crew cleaned up a fatal tanker explosion at State Road 528 and State Road 3/North Courtenay Parkway on Merritt Island. Brevard County Fire rescue said a truck exploded on the State Road 528 overpass on top of Courtenay Parkway around 3:30 p.m. Friday. Fire dropped down onto two vehicles under the bridge, but none of those passengers was injured. The Florida Highway Patrol said the driver of the vehicle that exploded and the driver in a pickup truck died in the explosion. Bill Dressel, of Palm Bay, had just exited SR 528 and crossed the Barge Canal on State Road 3 when he looked up and saw flames fill his rearview mirror. "I saw nothing but flames behind me," he said. "It was massive, they had to be 20 feet in the air and rolling out, like it was being fed. It was crazy. I still have goosebumps talking about it. It kind of puts everything in perspective, had I gone a little slower on 528, would I have been engulfed in flames?" The FHP said the first vehicle leaked some sort of flammable fluid and Fire Rescue and crews from KSC cleaned up the spill. The contents of the tanker are not yet known, but the fire was extinguished. While the fire was burning, residents were asked to remain indoors within half a mile of the crash. Traffic was blocked on SR 528 and diverted to U.S. Highway 1 and Interstate 95 for several hours, but all the roadways except the overpass at Courtenay Parkway reopened late Friday, making a smooth detour for motorists. The bridge will be remain closed for repairs for a while, according to Kim Montes of the FHP. The Brevard County School Board said some students were delayed in getting home on their buses due to traffic congestion.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here are a couple of scary facts:

1.) This hurricane season will be using the names from the hyperactive 2005 season.

2.) ENSO conditions will be very similar to the 2005 season.

3.) Sea Surface Temperatures most of the Atlantic basin are able to support a hurricane.

4.) High tropical cyclone numbers have been forecasted by CSU, TSR, and Miami (lol :P).

I do not believe this coming season will be a good one at all. :|


Bring it on! I got a lieutenant dan for em.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm heading out of Starbucks in a few, so I'll get back wichu guys once I get home....



what kind of laptop do you have
where doom where all doom
Quoting hydrus:
Probably with a medium to heavy gauge moral high ground jack setting not so firmly on the filthy holy rock bottom moral ground jack.:) ..Good evening C.K..


Okay, so how high did they jack it?


Quoting doorman79:


Bring it on! I got a lieutenant dan for em.


Better have a big box of chocolates, too!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here are a couple of scary facts:

1.) This hurricane season will be using the names from the hyperactive 2005 season.

2.) ENSO conditions will be very similar to the 2005 season.

3.) Sea Surface Temperatures most of the Atlantic basin are able to support a hurricane.

4.) High tropical cyclone numbers have been forecasted by CSU, TSR, and Miami (lol :P).

I do not believe this coming season will be a good one at all. :|
LOL, I like it.

It will definitely be an interesting season ahead. I currently find 1999 and 2008 as the best analogs for this upcoming season, albeit 1999 being a little less active than the numbers I released.
The drought is worsening in many parts of strife-torn Somalia, with herders reported to be moving into Mogadishu, the capital, with their livestock for the first time ever due to lack of pasture and water, the United Nations reported today. In the south-western Gedo region, where the situation is reportedly critical, water, food and medical aid are said to be the priority needs for the drought-affected population, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said. The Horn of Africa nation, which has not had a functioning central government since 1991 and has been torn apart by decades of conflict and factional strife, is already facing a dire humanitarian crisis in which 3.2 million people, more than 40 per cent of the population, is in need of aid. According to field and media reports, many people are arriving on the outskirts of Mogadishu every day, mainly from Middle and Lower Shabelle regions. The exact number of those displaced by the drought is not yet available but recent UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports put the number at 12,000 at least. Some families have started selling their assets to get money for transport to refugee camps in neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia. An inter-agency assessment is to be conducted in the southwest part of Mogadishu to assess humanitarian needs, including the number of people affected and priority areas of response. In response to the increased needs for both the host community and people displaced by drought as well as continued conflicts in the central regions, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) has scaled up its aid, adding 105,400 additional displaced and nearly 20,000 new beneficiaries from host communities for the January food distribution. WFP is currently targeting some 2.5 million people for food aid across Somalia, although 625,000 of those are in areas where operations are currently suspended due to pressure from Al-Shabaab Islamist militants in the south. In 2009, WFP reached 3.3 million people in Somalia with food supplies.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, I like it.

It will definitely be an interesting season ahead. I currently find 1999 and 2008 as the best analogs for this upcoming season, albeit 1999 being a little less active than the numbers I released.


Hey, 09, How you been.
Australian ‘inland sea’ flood threatens towns


MELBOURNE: Australia’s flood crisis deepened on Saturday with a giant ‘inland sea’ threatening more communities in the southeast, as officials continued the grim search for bodies in worst-hit Queensland.

Sandbagging was underway in some villages in Victoria, where weeks of floods have affected as much as one-third of the state, with swollen rivers overflowing in 75 towns and flooding some 1,770 properties.

“We know that this is the most significant flooding in the north west of Victoria since records began... about 130 years ago,” a spokeswoman for the State Emergency Service told AFP. “We are still on alert for towns in the north of the state.”

Floodwaters which national broadcaster ABC described as a moving “inland sea” covering an area 90 kilometres (56 miles) long and 40 kilometres wide, were threatening towns around Swan Hill, some 300 kilometres northwest of Melbourne.

“In the actual Swan Hill township itself, we are very confident that the levee system around the town is built to a very high grade and will protect the township,” Mayor Greg Cruickshank told ABC radio. But rural and outlying areas “will have significant amount of inundation through them,” he said.

While thousands of people around the state have been urged to evacuate, emergency services warned that those people who choose to remain on their properties in the rural areas could be stranded by the floods. “A number of these communities will be isolated for days as this huge amount of floodwater comes through,” SES spokesman Kevin Monk said. more here
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, 09, How you been.
Hey, Gro! Been doing well. Caught up with schoolwork and stuff, but it's been going good. How about you?
I believe we'll see at least one Category 5 hurricane this season...potentially more.

What about you?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I believe we'll see at least one Category 5 hurricane this season...potentially more.

What about you?


Another stranger, how you doing C?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey, Gro! Been doing well. Caught up with schoolwork and stuff, but it's been going good. How about you?


Good to see you back Miami, and glad you're doing ok.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey, Gro! Been doing well. Caught up with schoolwork and stuff, but it's been going good. How about you?


Doing good. But a little scary seeing you guys back on the blog. It means hurricane season is a'nearin!
Quoting caneswatch:


Good to see you back Miami, and glad you're doing ok.


How you doing? Are you going to post any predictions for the upcoming season.
Quoting Grothar:


Another stranger, how you doing C?


Hey Hawk!

I'm doing good, how about you?
Quoting caneswatch:


Good to see you back Miami, and glad you're doing ok.
Hey Canes! Glad to see you're doing well too.
Quoting caneswatch:


Good to see you back Miami, and glad you're doing ok.


Hey! Not talked to you in a while.
heys for cows
Quoting Tazmanian:
heys for cows


lol.
Next season is pretty far out but here's a quick stab from the enso perspective.. looking at ENSO like years I'd have to look at 1971, 1974 & 1999. These all had more landfalls on the US than elsewhere with FL & coastal NC being impacted more than elsewhere.



I'm expecting neutral ENSO conditions by May or before, so the switch should be soon enough to give the lag time a chance to catch up not long into the season. Maybe early season higher chance of Caribbean hits, Mexico, TX & Gulf. Height of season more FL & NC threats, some landfalls, some just off the coast. Looking at the NASA GMAO model that has been preforming above the others the last year or more..we may even see El Nino conditions by July so may see the the season end with more curving out to sea (or over Bermuda).
Quoting Grothar:


Doing good. But a little scary seeing you guys back on the blog. It means hurricane season is a'nearin!


Dont ya just love their enthusiasm...I'm glad they both are back. The Youth....keep you young and on your toes. I know, I have 6 terrific grandchildren ;)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Dont ya just love their enthusiasm...I'm glad they both are back. The Youth....keep you young and on your toes. I know, I have 6 terrific grandchildren ;)


Yes, they are good for the blog, and they do catch us sometimes.......6 grandchildren. Boy, you must be old.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, they are good for the blog, and they do catch us sometimes.......6 grandchildren. Boy, you must be old.


Didn't I tell ya? I'm older than Grothar :)
Quoting Grothar:


How you doing? Are you going to post any predictions for the upcoming season.


LOL I'll give my best shot. I'll go with 14 named, 8 hurricanes, and 5 majors. Also, Florida's luck has a great chance of being gone, and so will the Carolinas.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey Canes! Glad to see you're doing well too.


Well, i'm not 100% yet LOL, but I hopefully will be soon.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey! Not talked to you in a while.


Yep. How've ya been?
Sea Surface Temperatures 2011:


Sea Surface Temperatures 2005:



Tropical Cyclone WILMA is currently spinning away in the southeastern Pacific Ocean, east of Fiji but not in record territory. The forecast expects the storm to move almost due south, which is odd considering the storm has been shifting ENE, but the storm is in the central part of a self-created cool zone in the eastern part of the La Nina WPac warm pool. This "driving south" of warm water east of the storm could potentially worsen coral bleaching in the area of the central southeastern Pacific.



The warmest SSTs in the Australasian area are around Papua New Guinea and north of the Gulf of Carpentaria. The sheer warmth of this area is adding more heat into the East Australian Current, driving up SSTs in that area and contributing to the Victorian floods. In February 2009, when forest fires hit Victoria, we were in a weak La Nina transitioning to El Nino. In September 2009, a series of dust storms hit eastern Australia when a weak El Nino was strengthening. The March 2010 floods and hail storms in Queensland, Victoria and Perth occurred during a strong but weakening El Nino Modoki, the September 2010 floods and isolated tornado in Victoria took place during a moderate strengthening La Nina, and now the Queensland-Victoria floods in January 2011 are happening in the midst of a strong La Nina. Whether or not there is a correlation between ENSO and extreme precipitation events in Australia, the rapid sequence of flood and drought in the same area seems to be recurring more rapidly and with greater extremes. The current warm pool is growing toward the Philippines, and should drop back south as the southern hemisphere ocean continues to approach its usually-warmest time around March-April. (If you're wondering, the warm anomaly over the branch of the Gulf Stream from east of Newfoundland to west of Greenland has been persisting for these periods in reverse chronological order since 2004: August 2010 - Present, January - April 2010, July 2008 - May 2009, September 2007 - March 2008, June 2006 - January 2007, August 2004 - February 2005, October 2003 (glitch?) - January 2004. The associated between the W. Greenland-North Atlantic Drift warm anomaly, ENSO, the Atlantic tripole and Atlantic hurricane activity may be significant. For the record, Jakobshavn Isbrae in Greenland remains unusually unfrozen.)



Oddly, the GFS actually brings Cyclone Wilma to an extratropical landfall in North Island of New Zealand, and other models point toward a SSW component. This could bring more warm water toward NZ.
Quoting caneswatch:


Yep. How've ya been?


Good. How's Florida?
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential 2011:


Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential 2005:
Convective activity's waning quite considerably with Wilma, despite the fact that upper-level winds are a favorable 5 to 10 knots (out of the southwest) and the diffluent environment aloft is excellent. I'm assuming it's due to dry air intrusion to the south.

Quoting Grothar:


Better have a big box of chocolates, too!


Better, I got shrimps!!!!!!!!!!! lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Good. How's Florida?


Miserable past 2 days with it being overcast. Other than that, my college s**ks and i'm hoping to get outta there ASAP. How's Texas?
Wilma not looking too good right now.
Quoting caneswatch:


Miserable past 2 days with it being overcast. Other than that, my college s**ks and i'm hoping to get outta there ASAP. How's Texas?


Been cold a lot recently. We had Freezing Rain on Thursday, and I was sick all week long. Highs in the 50s and 60s with Sunshine will help a whole lot though.
Quoting doorman79:


Better, I got shrimps!!!!!!!!!!! lol


What kind of shrimp? Boiled shrimp, fried shrimp, baked shrip, shrimp gumbo, barbequed shrimp, shrimp cocktail............... LOL
Quoting Grothar:


What kind of shrimp? Boiled shrimp, fried shrimp, baked shrip, shrimp gumbo, barbequed shrimp, shrimp cocktail............... LOL


Ain't cooked em yet, what you want?
Tropical Cyclone Anthony is in much better shape judging by this image:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOwOZLqDhto

Alice with Elton John, a little new with some old for all of you!
Quoting Skyepony:
Next season is pretty far out but here's a quick stab from the enso perspective.. looking at ENSO like years I'd have to look at 1971, 1974 & 1999. These all had more landfalls on the US than elsewhere with FL & coastal NC being impacted more than elsewhere.



I'm expecting neutral ENSO conditions by May or before, so the switch should be soon enough to give the lag time a chance to catch up not long into the season. Maybe early season higher chance of Caribbean hits, Mexico, TX & Gulf. Height of season more FL & NC threats, some landfalls, some just off the coast. Looking at the NASA GMAO model that has been preforming above the others the last year or more..we may even see El Nino conditions by July so may see the the season end with more curving out to sea (or over Bermuda).
If it goes back to La Nina conditions, the season may be more like that of the mid to late 50s. '58 anyone? Maybe more like '56 or '57



(not that I want a Betsy, part deux.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sea Surface Temperatures 2011:


Sea Surface Temperatures 2005:



You mentioned that ENSO would likely be similar to 2005, but 2005 actually started with a weak El Nino, which contributed to the then-record warmth in the Atlantic (the NAO also plays a role). Of course, that El Nino was replaced by La Nina-like conditions by the end of the year, and I remember reading that the associated atmospheric circulation was one of the causes of the high activity.

The comparisons to 2008 may be better since ENSO will likely follow a similar pattern with a seasonal weakening of La Nina followed by a period of cool neutral conditions then a restrengthening by the end of the year, as often happens after strong La Ninas (in 1999, the second peak ended up even stronger than the first peak with a third weak peak the next year, although one reason was because of the record strength El Nino preceding it, leading to a large depletion of warm water and long recharge time).

That said, the heat content of the West Pacific Warm pool is approaching record levels (although in 2008, which holds the current record, it fell back without an El Nino):



The East Pacific is still pretty cold though:



(another thing to note is that the West Pacific has been getting warmer but the East Pacific has been getting colder)
Quoting atmoaggie:
If it goes back to La Nina conditions, the season may be more like that of the mid to late 50s. '58 anyone? Maybe more like '56 or '57



It wouldn't be that inactive.
Quoting atmoaggie:
If it goes back to La Nina conditions, the season may be more like that of the mid to late 50s. '58 anyone? Maybe more like '56 or '57



(not that I want a Betsy, part deux.


I was actually speaking about 2005 for the peak of the season, which I forgot to include. However, 2008 is also a good analogy as you and Miami have mentioned.

EDIT: This comment was directed to MichaelSTL.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It wouldn't be that inactive.
Well, 56 and 57 wern't that active, but Betsy and Audrey were memorable...
Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, 56 and 57 wern't that active, but Betsy and Audrey we memorable...


Betsy wasn't a 1956 event.
Quoting atmoaggie:
If it goes back to La Nina conditions, the season may be more like that of the mid to late 50s. '58 anyone? Maybe more like '56 or '57



(not that I want a Betsy, part deux.


It will be interesting if this becomes a multi-year La Nina. 1955 would be the best analog from the '50s since that particular La Nina began in 1954.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Convective activity's waning quite considerably with Wilma, despite the fact that upper-level winds are a favorable 5 to 10 knots (out of the southwest) and the diffluent environment aloft is excellent. I'm assuming it's due to dry air intrusion to the south.



I think it's also due to the competing influence of the large belt of thunderstorms to the north of the circulation.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Betsy wasn't a 1956 event.


A Hurricane Betsy made a direct hit on Puerto Rico in 1956.

Quoting Levi32:


A Hurricane Betsy made a direct hit on Puerto Rico in 1956.



I'm aware of that, but I don't exactly consider a Category 1 to be all that severe. I realize some, perhaps even atmo, might not agree with me, and that's fine.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


You mentioned that ENSO would likely be similar to 2005, but 2005 actually started with a weak El Nino, which contributed to the then-record warmth in the Atlantic (the NAO also plays a role). Of course, that El Nino was replaced by La Nina-like conditions by the end of the year, and I remember reading that the associated atmospheric circulation was one of the causes of the high activity.

The comparisons to 2008 may be better since ENSO will likely follow a similar pattern with a seasonal weakening of La Nina followed by a period of cool neutral conditions then a restrengthening by the end of the year, as often happens after strong La Ninas (in 1999, the second peak ended up even stronger than the first peak with a third weak peak the next year, although one reason was because of the record strength El Nino preceding it, leading to a large depletion of warm water and long recharge time).

That said, the heat content of the West Pacific Warm pool is approaching record levels (although in 2008, which holds the current record, it fell back without an El Nino):



The East Pacific is still pretty cold though:



(another thing to note is that the West Pacific has been getting warmer but the East Pacific has been getting colder)


The contrast between heat content in the western and eastern Pacific certainly speaks to the strength of this La Nina.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm aware of that, but I don't exactly consider a Category 1 to be all that severe. I realize some, perhaps even atmo, might not agree with me, and that's fine.


Trust me, a Category 1 hurricane can do a lot of damage.
Quoting Skyepony:
Next season is pretty far out but here's a quick stab from the enso perspective.. looking at ENSO like years I'd have to look at 1971, 1974 & 1999. These all had more landfalls on the US than elsewhere with FL & coastal NC being impacted more than elsewhere.



I'm expecting neutral ENSO conditions by May or before, so the switch should be soon enough to give the lag time a chance to catch up not long into the season. Maybe early season higher chance of Caribbean hits, Mexico, TX & Gulf. Height of season more FL & NC threats, some landfalls, some just off the coast. Looking at the NASA GMAO model that has been preforming above the others the last year or more..we may even see El Nino conditions by July so may see the the season end with more curving out to sea (or over Bermuda).
Sorry but I don't think this La nina will end anytime soon.But I do agree that the U.S could see more threats from landfalling storms this year.I'd say similar to 2008.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sorry but I don't think this La nina will end anytime soon.But I do agree that the U.S could see more threats from landfalling storms this year.I'd say similar to 2008.


La Nina should be gone by the peak of the hurricane season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Been cold a lot recently. We had Freezing Rain on Thursday, and I was sick all week long. Highs in the 50s and 60s with Sunshine will help a whole lot though.


Cool. I was back up in South Carolina over the holidays. They had that nice storm roll through on Dec. 26th, about 6 inches of snow fell and the patio was covered in ice.
Yayyy!!.People ar discussing my favorite topic."Tropical Cyclones".I wonder where the AGW crew went.Probally out for a beer tonight after talking relentless about that stuff...
Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, 56 and 57 wern't that active, but Betsy and Audrey we memorable...


I know this may be a bit off base, but after Katrina you would think that people would windload things(such as garage doors). They are not here in se La. The only installs we do that are windloaded are gov jobs. Till this day I tell contractors that windload should be standard and they say "I will worry about it when I get caught". I even had an inspector from my parish call and ask me how to tell a windloaded door from one that was not, but he never showed up for the meeting we had! It is amazing at all the people that say "it wont happen again"!
Quoting caneswatch:


Cool. I was back up in South Carolina over the holidays. They had that nice storm roll through on Dec. 26th, about 6 inches of snow fell and the patio was covered in ice.


Yeah, it snowed here like two weeks ago..Here in Fort Worth, we got below one inch. However, well to our NE, they got up to 6 inches.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Betsy wasn't a 1956 event.

Dyslexia. 1965.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yayyy!!.People ar discussing my favorite topic."Tropical Cyclones".I wonder where the AGW crew went.Probally out for a beer tonight after talking relentless about that stuff...


No, it is only because nobody has posted comments like "Global warming is a scam!"). Like I said before, I only post on it when others make comments like that because it of course trashes the blog (and gets people banned...).
Atmo,

In your parish too.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


La Nina should be gone by the peak of the hurricane season.
Well some experts disagree with that.They think that this La nina could potentually last until next year(that'll be interesting to see).But if it is indeed gone then the U.S better watch out.Neutral years have proven to be bad for us.
Quoting doorman79:


Ain't cooked em yet, what you want?


Pan seared in butter & Garlic. Remove shrimp. Deglaze the pan with 1/3 cup brandi, flame off for drama. Reduce the sauce till 1/2. Reduce heat to low and add 1 cup heavy cream. Simmer till thick (about 5 min.) stir constantly. Return the shrimp to the pan and cover with the sauce. Simmer another minute or two then pour over a platter of angel-hair pasta. Serve with a good white wine and french bread.
Quoting bappit:

Dyslexia. 1965.
Hahaha. There was a Betsy in '56, but not that Betsy!

I must admit that I'm not a usual drinker, but enjoying the Southern Comfort tonight...
Quick solar update:

TSI updated through January 15th, 2011 continues to show only a very slight increase overall, certainly at a far slower rate than a normal solar cycle that should be racing towards its maximum.



Sunspot count and AP index also remain at very unimpressive levels so far this month.



Solar Terrestrial Activity Report
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Trust me, a Category 1 hurricane can do a lot of damage.


I've been through a lot of them. I don't fear them. I don't discourage the appropriate precautions, though.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sorry but I don't think this La nina will end anytime soon.But I do agree that the U.S could see more threats from landfalling storms this year.I'd say similar to 2008.


2008 wasn't a La Nina year, it was a neutral year. Thats what we're heading too.
Quoting MechEngMet:


Pan seared in butter & Garlic. Remove shrimp. Deglaze the pan with 1/3 cup brandi, flame off for drama. Reduce the sauce till 1/2. Reduce heat to low and add 1 cup heavy cream. Simmer till thick (about 5 min.) stir constantly. Return the shrimp to the pan and cover with the sauce. Simmer another minute or two then pour over a platter of angel-hair pasta. Serve with a good white wine and french bread.

why get the shrimp drunk? lol
Quoting doorman79:


I know this may be a bit off base, but after Katrina you would think that people would windload things(such as garage doors). They are not here in se La. The only installs we do that are windloaded are gov jobs. Till this day I tell contractors that windload should be standard and they say "I will worry about it when I get caught". I even had an inspector from my parish call and ask me how to tell a windloaded door from one that was not, but he never showed up for the meeting we had! It is amazing at all the people that say "it wont happen again"!
*sigh* It's a sad state of affairs...

Meanwhile, some us even hurricane strap a 8 by 10 workshop. Sometimes, building with no permit at all yields way, way over code.

When I was working with Habitat for Humanity, once, they said that their experience is that novices haphazardly putting in way too many nails by hand withstood storms, such as Katrina, far better than professionally built houses. I can believe that. One shot with a nail gun, or some moron with a hammer, minus functioning thumbs, putting 3 nails halfway in and 2 successfully driven, but at different angles. Which one will hold longer?
Quoting MichaelSTL:


No, it is only because nobody has posted comments like "Global warming is a scam!"). Like I said before, I only post on it when others make comments like that because it of course trashes the blog (and gets people banned...).
Well it looks like the blog has switched from one conversation to the next(it's amazing how people can change the subject quickly)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hahaha. There was a Betsy in '56, but not that Betsy!

I must admit that I'm not a usual drinker, but enjoying the Southern Comfort tonight...


I went through Betsy '65 in my parents house. My first hurricane!

Bourbon is over by the ice bucket. (Help yourself.)

Sorry all. I forgot "...add salt and fresh ground black pepper..." to the above recipe.
Quoting Skyepony:
Next season is pretty far out but here's a quick stab from the enso perspective.. looking at ENSO like years I'd have to look at 1971, 1974 & 1999. These all had more landfalls on the US than elsewhere with FL & coastal NC being impacted more than elsewhere.



I'm expecting neutral ENSO conditions by May or before, so the switch should be soon enough to give the lag time a chance to catch up not long into the season. Maybe early season higher chance of Caribbean hits, Mexico, TX & Gulf. Height of season more FL & NC threats, some landfalls, some just off the coast. Looking at the NASA GMAO model that has been preforming above the others the last year or more..we may even see El Nino conditions by July so may see the the season end with more curving out to sea (or over Bermuda).


Yeah, I think our luck in Florida will run out this year, probably during the peak part like you said. It's going to be miserable if it does. It'll be in the 90's, which makes the house and everyone in it miserable. Luckily, since this house is under a minute away from a fire and sheriff's station, power returns quickly, within a day or two.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hahaha. There was a Betsy in '56, but not that Betsy!

I must admit that I'm not a usual drinker, but enjoying the Southern Comfort tonight...


Was that an intentional pun?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2008 wasn't a La Nina year, it was a neutral year. Thats what we're heading too.
I know 2008 wasn't a La nina year.I was saying that the U.S could see a similar amount of tropical cyclone landfalls.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Was that an intentional pun?
Umm, I'll bite, I suppose. What pun?
Quoting atmoaggie:
Umm, I'll bite, I suppose. What pun?


The "Southern Comfort" thing. Obviously, SC is a form of whiskey, but there are also a few southerners currently present on the blog.
Quoting Levi32:


The contrast between heat content in the western and eastern Pacific certainly speaks to the strength of this La Nina.

When will the models agree with each other on the storm in the North East?
Quoting KoritheMan:


The "Southern Comfort" thing. Obviously, SC is a form of whiskey, but there are also a few southerners currently present on the blog.
Ahh, okay, the whiskey version is clearly what I was referring too.

It;s in the freezer, if you'd like to join.
RE: 604 Doorman...

If the shrimp prefer to be cooked while sauced then by all means oblige them. Seriously though, when you flame off the brandy most (if not all) of the alcohol is removed. It's quite dramatic and often impresses the date.

Skills in the kitchen...

Sorry I know it's a weather blog. But you offered the shrimp, so...

Betsy '65 was a cast iron "Beyotch". Put 18" of water in my parents house. Not much wind damage, but some went weeks without power.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I know 2008 wasn't a La nina year.I was saying that the U.S could see a similar amount of tropical cyclone landfalls.


Hey, if anyone told me that a 19-12-5 year was not going to feature any hurricane landfalls in the USA I'd think they were nuts! Thats why I no longer make any predictions of landfalls until November 30th.

Remember, though last year the US was spared, Mexico and surrounding Islands were hit really badly.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Ahh, okay, the whiskey version is clearly what I was referring too.

It;s in the freezer, if you'd like to join.


Gladly!
Quoting atmoaggie:
*sigh* It's a sad state of affairs...

Meanwhile, some us even hurricane strap a 8 by 10 workshop. Sometimes, building with no permit at all yields way, way over code.

When I was working with Habitat for Humanity, once, they said that their experience is that novices haphazardly putting in way too many nails by hand withstood storms, such as Katrina, far better than professionally built houses. I can believe that. One shot with a nail gun, or some moron with a hammer, minus functioning thumbs, putting 3 nails halfway in a 2 successfully driven. Which one will hold longer?


Be honest, don't get caught without a permit in St Tammany. They really frown on that! There are contractors that are friends that build homes without even stripping the top soil off now. One day the chickens are gonna come home to roost!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2008 wasn't a La Nina year, it was a neutral year. Thats what we're heading too.


It is worth noting that if the atmospheric circulation hadn't remained in a La Nina state, an El Nino could have easily developed (if you look at those WWV graphs I posted, the WPAC shows a discharge):



In fact, the Nino 1+2 region by South America actually got warmer than the last El Nino! Note however that the Central Pacific remained cool; this has a much bigger influence on tropical convection because it is near the threshold for sustained convection (about 28°C, as shown here).
Quoting tramp96:

When will the models agree with each other on the storm in the North East?


I have no idea.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hey, if anyone told me that a 19-12-5 year was not going to feature any hurricane landfalls in the USA I'd think they were nuts! Thats why I no longer make any predictions of landfalls until November 30th.

Remember, though last year the US was spared, Mexico and surrounding Islands were hit really badly.


Steering currents are much harder to predict than ENSO. Hence, while we can be relatively certain of a general range of tropical cyclone activity, we cannot say the same about the mean steering regime throughout the season, which tends to change much more rapidly and unexpectedly.
Quoting MechEngMet:
RE: 604 Doorman...

If the shrimp prefer to be cooked while sauced then by all means oblige them. Seriously though, when you flame off the brandy most (if not all) of the alcohol is removed. It's quite dramatic and often impresses the date.

Skills in the kitchen...

Sorry I know it's a weather blog. But you offered the shrimp, so...

Betsy '65 was a cast iron "Beyotch". Put 18" of water in my parents house. Not much wind damage, but some went weeks without power.
Hehehe. Flames.

Story time: My dad's high school friend got a job at Brennan's after graduation. Once put way, way too much rum in the Bananas Foster.

The ensuing flames ignited dust in the overhead HVAC vent. Fire inside Brennan's in the Quarter (200 year old wood everywhere) thanks to too much rum.

Luckily, he didn't burn down any whole city blocks and Brennan's wasn't closed for long...
I will say this though. Windloaded homes or buildings will not stand to water. We did a building for the Wildlife and fisheries in Venice in 2004. The water pushed a derrick right through it. Some places it will not help, but where we are water is not an issue on the northshore.
Quoting MechEngMet:
RE: 604 Doorman...

If the shrimp prefer to be cooked while sauced then by all means oblige them. Seriously though, when you flame off the brandy most (if not all) of the alcohol is removed. It's quite dramatic and often impresses the date.

Skills in the kitchen...

Sorry I know it's a weather blog. But you offered the shrimp, so...

Betsy '65 was a cast iron "Beyotch". Put 18" of water in my parents house. Not much wind damage, but some went weeks without power.


I'm drinking a beer as we speak, just trying to make a smile or 2!
Quoting doorman79:


Be honest, don't get caught without a permit in St Tammany. They really frown on that! There are contractors that are friends that build homes without even stripping the top soil off now. One day the chickens are gonna come home to roost!
Oh, if it wasn't a 8 by 10 workshop in the backyard, of course. Not going to build, nor add on to, a house without a permit...
Quoting doorman79:
I will say this though. Windloaded homes or buildings will not stand to water. We did a building for the Wildlife and fisheries in Venice in 2004. The water pushed a derrick right through it. Some places it will not help, but where we are water is not an issue on the northshore.
Nope. I like my 38 feet above sea level. Though, I'm only 5 miles from the lake.

Tammany Hills? I'm on the top of the hill. ;-)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hehehe. Flames.

Story time: My dad's high school friend got a job at Brennan's after graduation. Once put way, way too much rum in the Bananas Foster.

The ensuing flames ignited dust in the overhead HVAC vent. Fire inside Brennan's in the Quarter (200 year old wood everywhere) thanks to too much rum.

Luckily, he didn't burn down any whole city blocks and Brennan's wasn't closed for long...


Good thing, cause that old wood and the years of paint burn nicely. And the Brennan fam to boot.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Nope. I like my 38 feet above sea level. Though, I'm only 5 miles from the lake.

Tammany Hills? I'm on the top of the hill. ;-)


I am curios, what sub you live in? My company probably either installed your door or serviced it at one point in time. Wundermail me if you don't want it known.
A study of tree rings recently published in the journal Science provides evidence of climate shifts that, perhaps not coincidentally, occurred from A.D. 250 to 550, a period better known as the fall of the Roman Empire.
Quoting doorman79:


Good thing, cause that old wood and the years of paint burn nicely. And the Brennan fam to boot.
Given where you live, have you seen this site: http://www.hammondactionnews.com/

Sometimes dumb, sometimes hilarious. warning, not good language, sometimes.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hey, if anyone told me that a 19-12-5 year was not going to feature any hurricane landfalls in the USA I'd think they were nuts! Thats why I no longer make any predictions of landfalls until November 30th.

Remember, though last year the US was spared, Mexico and surrounding Islands were hit really badly.
Yes it was certainly amamzing how the U.S had dodged all but one minimal tropical storm as a direct hit.It was like a huge doormat saying "HURRICANE'S NOT WELCOMED".Sadly the same can not be said about surrounding area's of the atlantic.
I'll have my REAL 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions released on February 1, 2011.
Quoting Skyepony:
A study of tree rings recently published in the journal Science provides evidence of climate shifts that, perhaps not coincidentally, occurred from A.D. 250 to 550, a period better known as the fall of the Roman Empire.
Can they really tell if it was too hot, too cold, too dry, too wet, or, simply, if another tree was towering over that one that was studied?

Too many variables for much confidence...

JMHO.
Quoting doorman79:


I'm drinking a beer as we speak, just trying to make a smile or 2!


It's all good. I'm on my second Bourbon & rocks. Smiles all around when we can do it.

Permits in construction are to protect the uninformed from sub-par contractors (or worse).

My experiences with permits and the associated inspectors/inspections are almost nightmarish. I'm glad I know what I'm doing/seeing structurally, because the inspectors sure didn't. I've seen some absolute nightmares pass inspection. The public was certainly not protected in those cases.

Bottom line; you've got to protect yourself. Inspections and permits have become a money maker for the bureaucracy. The public is more at risk today than eve before.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Given where you live, have you seen this site: http://www.hammondactionnews.com/

Sometimes dumb, sometimes hilarious. warning, not good language, sometimes.


Thats Ptown babe! Bre used to be part of the pumkin fest at holloween. I graduated with him.
Quoting MechEngMet:


It's all good. I'm on my second Bourbon & rocks. Smiles all around when we can do it.

Permits in construction are to protect the uninformed from sub-par contractors (or worse).

My experiences with permits and the associated inspectors/inspections are almost nightmarish. I'm glad I know what I'm doing/seeing structurally, because the inspectors sure didn't. I've seen some absolute nightmares pass inspection. The public was certainly not protected in those cases.

Bottom line; you've got to protect yourself. Inspections and permits have become a money maker for the bureaucracy. The public is more at risk today than eve before.


We are finding the "mom and pops" are not the issue. Its the big companies and corps that are doing the shortcuts. They buy engineers to say what they are doing is sound. The parishes, "don't have the money to rebut it", but sure like the taxes they bring. But it is putting a hurt on the local boys.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Steering currents are much harder to predict than ENSO. Hence, while we can be relatively certain of a general range of tropical cyclone activity, we cannot say the same about the mean steering regime throughout the season, which tends to change much more rapidly and unexpectedly.


ENSO seems to have an impact on steering. During La Nia the Atlantic high sets up more west sparing the US mostly & nailing Caribbean & MX. Some form too far east of the high & recurve well out to sea. Last year looked like a dive into a strong La Nina that would last through the end of the season. Figuring the delay to the atmosphere is a little tricky but early season storm tend to be gulf/Central America..After that more a Caribbean/Central American Hurricane alley scene with some recurves well to the east.

Generally, the warmer ENSO, the farther east the Atlantic high seems to set up, with neutral to weak El Nino being most favorable for US landfalls. This coming year seems a little harder to call especially if we have a rapid change~ I agree that could lead to some unexpected changes in the steering position mean.
Link

This should put a smile on everyones faces!
Quoting atmoaggie:
Can they really tell if it was too hot, too cold, too dry, too wet, or, simply, if another tree was towering over that one that was studied?

Too many variables for much confidence...

JMHO.


To answer your question, yes they can. First they use what is known of the tree species' biological responses to climatic conditions. Then, they cross check that information with other proxies.

They also use a lot more than just one tree of course.
Latest batch (January) of dynamical/statistical ENSO prediction plumes suggests that we go into the heart of the season with neutral conditions. Quite the spread among members however...

the world seems semi-quiet keeper. there was 2 over by st johns that are a little higher than normal and couple in nevada.
Notice how the current SST profile in the Atlantic is not very different from last year. The same band of cool water oriented SW to NE across the mid-latitudes associated with a baroclinic zone pushed farther south is present, and the deep tropics, especially in the eastern Atlantic, are warm.

January 20th, 2011:



January 21st, 2010:


646. JRRP
Quoting caneswatch:
Some might have not saw this earlier:

A new study changes the strength of the Great Miami 1926 Hurricane and the Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928.
'
Interesting article. Thanks!

I noticed the comments on the news article. They would be laughable if not so sad. I like this rebuttal.

Emil is using way too many three syllable words for NP, Allah and Carol to follow. Learning all we can about hurricanes may seem useless to those who have never had the roof blown off their house while they were in it.
One of the strongest La Niña events on record continues to influence the climate of the Pacific Basin.


Climate indicators of ENSO, including tropical cloud amount, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and Pacific sea surface and sub-surface temperatures, all remain well in excess of La Niña thresholds. Most have exceeded these thresholds since the middle of 2010. The average August to December SOI (+21.1) has only been exceeded by the La Niña of 1917-18 (+24.4), with the 1975-76 La Niña value (+18.8) ranked third. Several other indices also suggest the La Niña events of 2010-11, 1975-76, 1917-18, 1955-56 and possibly 1988-89, rank closely in terms of the strongest events on record.
Quoting JRRP:


Interesting. The ECMWF shows possible hints of a typical summer rise but a re-strengthening of a 2nd-year La Nina this fall.
The SOI has not gone negative since April 8th, 2010. Impressive...

Quoting atmoaggie:
Can they really tell if it was too hot, too cold, too dry, too wet, or, simply, if another tree was towering over that one that was studied?

Too many variables for much confidence...

JMHO.


The article was kind of cheesy. Would be interesting how much cross referencing they did across Rome. Overall it's a pretty respected method when done right according to universities like Yale.
Quoting Levi32:


Interesting. The ECMWF shows possible hints of a typical summer rise but a re-strengthening of a 2nd-year La Nina this fall.


As strong as La Nina is a neutral summer followed by a La Nina next winter would be typical. Interesting though is the amount of heat building in the west Pac. Enough I think to atleast go Neutral this summer.
653. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:


Interesting. The ECMWF shows possible hints of a typical summer rise but a re-strengthening of a 2nd-year La Nina this fall.

yeah...

in this sensce... 2000 is the best analog
Quoting bappit:
'
Interesting article. Thanks!

I noticed the comments on the news article. They would be laughable if not so sad. I like this rebuttal.

Emil is using way too many three syllable words for NP, Allah and Carol to follow. Learning all we can about hurricanes may seem useless to those who have never had the roof blown off their house while they were in it.


Look at Comment 7. I have a story like that.

Tuesday, September 20th, 2004. I was 12 and school started at 9:10, I accidentally wake up early and the good TWC was on. I see the track of Jeanne coming back around and taking aim at us. I tell my mom as she was up, and she says "No it's not, go back to bed."

Later that day, we're at Publix stocking up on supplies just like we did three and a half weeks earlier for Frances.
atmo: they have amassed a database of tree ring data from thousands of samples, and can map yearly climate changes at least for Europe for thousands of years. They correlate the overlaps and add up to a continuous record.
Quoting HOOTat:
atmo: they have amassed a database of tree ring data from thousands of samples, and can map yearly climate changes at least for Europe for thousands of years. They correlate the overlaps and add up to a continuous record.
...of what. Thick as a Brick?

Heck, I left out soil properties, too. And other phenomena that block sunlight...volcanoes and upwind forest fires.

One dataset, 6-ish unknowns. It's a WAG.
I think this la nina is caused by excessive surface heat instead of cold water trying to up-well by itself. You can see two positive heat anomalies moving westward around dec 2009 / jan 2010 which turn into the current conditions. More upper level heat -> more adjacent cold water upwelling, I wouldn't be surprised if these conditions persist. Kind of ironic that the general idea of certain layers in the environment not mixing (previous assumptions) is completely wrong; and that almost every aspect (sea ice, glacier ice, ice sheets, deep/mid/upper ocean layers) is now being mixed thermodynamically. In fact these heat sinks are pretty much the only thing between massive flooding events, hurricanes and heat waves compared to our current experiences (although the south hemisphere will have much more problems than the north due to the amount of polar ice in terms of non-cyclonic flooding events).
So some subscribe to the notion that this is real and bullet-proof:


When, it has been shown that only a select sample of tree rings give that result. No deviation of more than 0.2 C on the scale of a century.

And one says that they have reconstructed Europe's temp every year back thousands.

Yet, the collection of other proxies, exclusive of tree rings, averaged together gives this result:


Much bigger than 0.2 C variations and this is after averaging obs at these locations:

(Obviously this is only through ~1940? Memory fails...)
Look at the wikipedia entry for dendrochronology. I am not saying its exact but it gives good consistency. When many samples across Europe all show a bad growth year, it indicates a wide ranging event such as weather.
Quoting KoritheMan:


The "Southern Comfort" thing. Obviously, SC is a form of whiskey, but there are also a few southerners currently present on the blog.



Did I hear someone mention, SoCo?

I'll admit, that's a favorite of mine.
Quoting caneswatch:
Some might have not saw this earlier:

A new study changes the strength of the Great Miami 1926 Hurricane and the Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928.




Nice link, canes!

How it be?
Quoting caneswatch:


Look at Comment 7. I have a story like that.

Tuesday, September 20th, 2004. I was 12 and school started at 9:10, I accidentally wake up early and the good TWC was on. I see the track of Jeanne coming back around and taking aim at us. I tell my mom as she was up, and she says "No it's not, go back to bed."

Later that day, we're at Publix stocking up on supplies just like we did three and a half weeks earlier for Frances.


Agreed.

Hurricane Central we were, for too long.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:




Nice link, canes!

How it be?


Alright I guess, how about you?
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Agreed.

Hurricane Central we were, for too long.


Oh yeah, and this year we might not be so lucky as we've been for the past 5 years.
Wilma is hurting. She was impressive less than 12 hrs ago. Click pic for loop.
Quoting caneswatch:


Alright I guess, how about you?



Mail me anytime you wish, Bud.


Quoting caneswatch:


Oh yeah, and this year we might not be so lucky as we've been for the past 5 years.


If it happens, we're much better prepared to deal with it, than last time.



Good evening, Skye. I'm "guessing" that is not FL's Wilma.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Good evening, Skye. I'm "guessing" that is not FL's Wilma.


No it's in the C Pac. Raging earlier today. All the models had it gaining a little more atleast.


PSLFL~ I thought that too about the better prepared after 04 & 05 but then Fay. I saw the chance of that much rain & warned my road & bridges friend. It was like nothing ever seen around here. Caught alot of people off guard. Really highlighted the poor planning of the '80s housing boom.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Mail me anytime you wish, Bud.




If it happens, we're much better prepared to deal with it, than last time.


Let's hope we're prepared for "the big one."
Quoting Skyepony:
PSLFL~ I thought that too about the better prepared after 04 & 05 but then Fay. I saw the chance of that much rain & warned my road & bridges friend. It was like nothing ever seen around here. Caught alot of people off guard. Really highlighted the poor planning of the '80s housing boom.



I agree. Many areas simply couldn't drain off the volume of water because of other issues.

Small, obscure, canals and ditches backed up, flooding places that usually drained well enough to keep the water out of homes.
Quoting caneswatch:


Let's hope we're prepared for "the big one."




Agreed.

Global warming could make la nina eventually go away for good by making all the pacific ocean warmer and stay warm I guess. Permanent el nino!:)
Quoting Skyepony:
PSLFL~ I thought that too about the better prepared after 04 & 05 but then Fay. I saw the chance of that much rain & warned my road & bridges friend. It was like nothing ever seen around here. Caught alot of people off guard. Really highlighted the poor planning of the '80s housing boom.



I'll cite one other event that I witnessed:

1995, centered over the Jupiter/Tequesta border, a frontal boundary stalled and put down training echoes, to the tune of around 30 inches, over an incredibly short period.

Many homes, in view of Interstate 95, were flooded.
Quoting sflawavedude:
Global warming could make la nina eventually go away for good by making all the pacific ocean warmer and stay warm I guess. Permanent el nino!:)


Won't happen for a long time, the current linear trend of heat budget versus the Greenland ice sheet indicates at least 100+ years until it is gone (Antarctica has 10 times the ice volume). This doesn't include the extremely cold water at the bottom layers of the oceans, or the increased energy output due to intense convection. ENSO will most likely fluctuate more intensely until everything reaches equilibrium, which will again take a long time (relatively).


G'night, folks.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (11U)
5:00 PM EST January 23 2011
=========================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category One (988 hPa) located 15.7S 150.9E, or 120 km northeast of Willis Is and 560 km east northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 19 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM in northern quadrant
120 NM in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.8S 154.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.8S 157.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 18.5S 159.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 17.8S 155.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=======================
Although cloud signtaure is weak, radar images from Willis Island suggest a tight low level circulation.

Dvorak analysis based off MET suggests DT 3.0
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW
5:00 PM CST January 23 2011
=======================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) is located at 14.3S 129.2E, or about 35 kilometres west southwest of Port Keats is reported as nearly stationary.

The low is expected to move towards the west or northwest and is likely to move over the northern Kimberley tomorrow.
Major Severe Weather Outbreak possible in Florida on Tuesday, the elements could be in place for damaging winds and tornadoes as a squall line pushes east. This will be part of the upcoming potential Superstorm that models are showing. Long Island may get decent chance of snow/ice.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
18:00 PM FST January 23 2011
===================================

Warning for Tokelau
======================
A Tropical Cyclone Warning is now in force for Tokelau Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Wilma, Category One (995 hPa) located at 11.8S 171.3W has 10 minute winds of 40 knots and is reported as moving east northeast at 9 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral visible/infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface observation.

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center in sector from northwest through east to southeast

60 NM from the center elsewhere

Additional Information
=========================

System has become disorganized with low level circulation center increasingly becoming cloud filled. Convection has been inhibited in the past 6 hours. Primary band trying to wrap around low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region. CIMSS indicates a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yielding DT=3.0, PT=3.0, MET=3.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

Most global models move Cyclone WILMA south then southwest with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 13.6S 170.1W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.7S 171.0W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 20.5S 175.5W - 60 knots (CAT 2)

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..
Here's a short video last year from the same region of earth experiencing most of the flooding now.(Indonesia)

I've been in Florida or Colorado most of my life and I've seen plenty of "supercells", but I've never seen a t-storm that looked quite like this one. Is this incredible formation as a result of la nina? ...or something else?

I know there's a lot of weather experts here, what do you all think? I've seen lots of sunset thunderstorms with bright tops, but why is the top of this one darker and fire(?) red in color? Is there a reasonable weather explanation for the uniqueness of this cloud?

Indonesia-Cloud
Quoting TampaBayStevo:
Here's a short video last year from the same region of earth experiencing most of the flooding now.(Indonesia)

I've been in Florida or Colorado most of my life and I've seen plenty of "supercells", but I've never seen a t-storm that looked quite like this one. Is this incredible formation as a result of la nina? ...or something else?

I know there's a lot of weather experts here, what do you all think? I've seen lots of sunset thunderstorms with bright tops, but why is the top of this one darker and fire(?) red in color? Is there a reasonable weather explanation for the uniqueness of this cloud?

Indonesia-Cloud



looks like a typical pulse storm at sunset. but im no expert.
684. IKE
Current temperature 30.9. Morning low of 30.4...so far.
Quoting TampaBayStevo:
Here's a short video last year from the same region of earth experiencing most of the flooding now.(Indonesia)

I've been in Florida or Colorado most of my life and I've seen plenty of "supercells", but I've never seen a t-storm that looked quite like this one. Is this incredible formation as a result of la nina? ...or something else?

I know there's a lot of weather experts here, what do you all think? I've seen lots of sunset thunderstorms with bright tops, but why is the top of this one darker and fire(?) red in color? Is there a reasonable weather explanation for the uniqueness of this cloud?

Indonesia-Cloud

Looks to me like a layer of iridescent pileus. Nice...

Here's a good explanation.
686. IKE
From the Birmingham,AL. extended discussion...for next weekend....

"FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS DRY WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH AND PERIODIC CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED. ONE IMPULSE HAS
SHOWN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW FLURRIES ON FRIDAY FOR THE PAST FEW
RUNS. WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. A MAJOR POOL OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL POTENTIALLY HEAD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY."

Quoting reedzone:
Major Severe Weather Outbreak possible in Florida on Tuesday, the elements could be in place for damaging winds and tornadoes as a squall line pushes east. This will be part of the upcoming potential Superstorm that models are showing. Long Island may get decent chance of snow/ice.


question... imnew to the board somewhat. whats agoodsiteforlong term forecasts?
688. IKE
5 day QPF...

689. IKE
29.5 my new morning low.
26.o in de leon springs FL
Quoting sflawavedude:
Global warming could make la nina eventually go away for good by making all the pacific ocean warmer and stay warm I guess. Permanent el nino!:)


Then the ATL hurricane season would always be inactive.
Morning,
18 in Wilmington N.C. ....... lowest temp I have seen this winter!!!
693. IKE
PWS about 6 miles from me...

WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
21.0 F
Clear

Windchill: 21 F
Humidity: 91%
Dew Point: 19 F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.10 in(Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
...........................................

Crestview, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 47 min 54 sec ago
20 F
Clear

Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 18 F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.18 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 210 ft



694. IKE
Suns-up. Warmer air is on the way today.
Morning
Ref 685,
I have seen many huge T-storms and never seen the likes of that!
As I remember, the Northern Gulf Coast, the front range of the Rockies and the tropical western Pacific are where the big ones lived !!
g'morning WU-Bloggers workdwide!

Ike, I LOVE that QPF!!! yes I see I have some rains coming. Glad you burned yesterday, this week will be a no-go for burning.

We had a heavy frost, garden looks wilty. But sometimes it surprises me, and it seems it's just the weight of the frost that wilts things.

Actually glad for the light freeze last night- I left a pot of delicious soup on the backporch to cool, before putting it in the fridge, and forgot about it till this morning.
A MAJOR POOL OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL POTENTIALLY HEAD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY."


ok ike, I see ya can't never make me smile, without making me frown, too.

Hi missnadia!
699. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning WU-Bloggers workdwide!

Ike, I LOVE that QPF!!! yes I see I have some rains coming. Glad you burned yesterday, this week will be a no-go for burning.

We had a heavy frost, garden looks wilty. But sometimes it surprises me, and it seems it's just the weight of the frost that wilts things.


I'm fixing to do it again this morning. I burned for about 4 hours yesterday. My forecast yesterday said NW winds at 10 mph. Wrong. They were 10-20 mph with an occasional higher gust.

I've got frost too.
Quoting aquak9:
A MAJOR POOL OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL POTENTIALLY HEAD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY."


ok ike, I see ya can't never make me smile, without making me frown, too.

Hi missnadia!



hi orca
I even put on my glasses but could not read the map...I'm guessing that is snow/frost? or freezing precip? for the cold front next week?
ike we were breezier than expected too- dug out another new garden bed next to the one we dug last year (Cato's garden)
I won't plant sunflowers there cause the skwerls ran along the fence, hopped onto the flowers, and ate them
Waterdog - Don't take this personal - but that is just too funny...

You have my luck in planting gardens.

Oh YES We have some chilly air down here in wcfl again.
Quoting Skyepony:


No it's in the C Pac. Raging earlier today. All the models had it gaining a little more atleast.



Wilma is actually in the S Pac
706. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
ike we were breezier than expected too- dug out another new garden bed next to the one we dug last year (Cato's garden)
I won't plant sunflowers there cause the skwerls ran along the fence, hopped onto the flowers, and ate them


I have a cat that I feed and give milk to...on my front porch. I noticed early one morning after I had put food out for him, that a possum was on my front porch eating the cat food.

Birds like it too. They also like doing a #2 in my rain guage...on top of my car....and on the top of my mailbox.
hi dakster! :)

The sunflowers won a few times- skwerls got to the top, sunflower bent over, dropped skwerl to the ground. BUT then the prettiest one, was short, and the skwerl ate it.
dang-blasted possums are MEAN, ike.

We find lizerds in our rain gauge, not bird poo.
Quoting aquak9:
hi orca
I even put on my glasses but could not read the map...I'm guessing that is snow/frost? or freezing precip? for the cold front next week?


Its the possibility of 4" of snow or better on the 26th
Complete Update





711. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
dang-blasted possums are MEAN, ike.

We find lizerds in our rain gauge, not bird poo.


I cleaned my rain gauge one morning this week. By the afternoon it was spotted with bird remains.

Lizards? lol.

I'll say GB and Pittsburgh win today.
pittsburgh is playing great britain??

thanks orca. I'm not on the map, but I know where I am. Glad I'm not in MissNadia's neck of the woods.

Man I'll be glad when this winter turns to spring.
713. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
pittsburgh is playing great britain??

thanks orca. I'm not on the map, but I know where I am. Glad I'm not in MissNadia's neck of the woods.

Man I'll be glad when this winter turns to spring.em>


It was suppose to be mild in the SE USA but...that hasn't happened. It was also suppose to be above average for a hurricane strike along the northern GOM...that didn't happen either.

Looks like another cold blast in about 7-8 days, unless it changes.
714. IKE
I didn't bold my response...oh well.
Quoting IKE:


I cleaned my rain gauge one morning this week. By the afternoon it was spotted with bird remains.

Lizards? lol.

I'll say GB and Pittsburgh win today.

Morning everyone, Ike i like your picks for todays football. You have been good at guessing all year so why not know. Besides the Steelers are my team.
Quoting aquak9:
hi dakster! :)

The sunflowers won a few times- skwerls got to the top, sunflower bent over, dropped skwerl to the ground. BUT then the prettiest one, was short, and the skwerl ate it.


Skwerl = rat with a furry tail... Possums are just plain mean - only thing worse is a raccoon.

Might need to animal proof the garden - although have you read the $64 Tomatoe? Great book and quite funny.
--
A little cold this morning down here, I can only imagine the weather everywhere else.
717. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

Morning everyone, Ike i like your picks for todays football. You have been good at guessing all year so why not know. Besides the Steelers are my team.


I did lousy the first week of the playoffs. Lousy last week. Glad I don't bet:(

Pittsburgh could lose. Jets are good. Good luck!
(yakuza's playing in the background)

I know, we still got to get thru feb. But once Feb's over, then we can hope for spring.
719. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
(yakuza's playing in the background)

I know, we still got to get thru feb. But once Feb's over, then we can hope for spring.


About 5 weeks and it will be March. Then spring...baseball weather.
Quoting IKE:


I did lousy the first week of the playoffs. Lousy last week. Glad I don't bet:(

Pittsburgh could lose. Jets are good. Good luck!

No matter what happens today, they should both be great games.
721. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

No matter what happens today, they should both be great games.


Agree...both games could go either way.
Iron Mountain, Michigan (Airport)
Updated: 7:54 AM CST on January 23, 2011
Clear
-18 °F
Clear
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: -21 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.32 in (Steady)
minus 18??

WTH?? I think unclemush lives on Pluto.
With the weather this year in New England what do you attribute it too. It has been cold and stormy since before the Holidays.


http://vacationideas-nickmeg.blogspot.com/2011/01/this-years-new-england-winter-weather.html
725. GBlet
LOVE AND SNOWFLAKES from central Kansas!!!!!
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
0:00 AM FST January 24 2011
===================================

Warning for Tokelau
======================
A Tropical Cyclone Warning is now in force for Tokelau Island

Warnings for Tonga
======================
A Tropical Cyclone Alert is now in force for Niuatoputapu, Vavau, Ha'apai, and Tongatapu group

A Strong Wind Warning remains in force for Tonga

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Wilma, Category One (994 hPa) located at 12.8S 171.0W has 10 minute winds of 40 knots and is reported as moving southwest at 13 knots. Position POOR based on hourly GOES enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center in sector from northwest through east to southeast

60 NM from the center elsewhere

Additional Information
=========================

System overall organization has slightly improved last 24 hours with low level circulation center becoming cloud filled. Convection has also increased in the last 6 hours. Primary band trying to wrap around low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region. CIMSS indicates a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.70 LOG10 spiral yielding DT=3.0, MET=3.5, PT=3.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

Most global models move Cyclone WILMA southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 14.7S 171.2W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.8S 172.3W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 20.9S 176.9W - 60 knots (CAT 2)

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 20:30 PM UTC..
Models are showing a 970 low going into New england and Canada Wed. - Fri...Looks nasty
728. 900MB
Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF...



Not many updates on this weeks East Coast storm. Anyone care to give me an idea of whether the low goes off the coast giving me in NYC a blizzard, or does it come right over NYC with rain? Anyone?
Canada sees staggering mildness as planet’s high-presure record is “obliterated”


Here
900mb

I read my long range, read charleston's long range, they don't seem to have a good grip on whether it heads offa the coast south of the carolinas, or stays more inland before it exits the coast further north.

MOS guidance has not been able to get a good handle on much of nuthin' these past coupla weeks. QPF is as good as any to watch at this point.
This report is over 12 hours old -

New Zealand

The MetService has issued a severe weather warning and is continuing to forecast another 200mm to 300mm for the Bay of Plenty. At this stage the Council has recorded rainfall levels across the region of up to 150mm.

Rainfall averages for the past 24 hours are:
• Tauranga/Western Bay of Plenty 100mm (intensity of about 6mm per hour);
• Rotorua 180mm (intensity of about 15mm per hour);
• Whakatāne 120mm (intensity of about 6mm per hour);
• Rangitāiki Plains 230mm (inte nsity of about 15mm per hour); and
• Ōpōtiki 90mm (intensity of about 5mm per hour).
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Canada sees staggering mildness as planets high-presure record is obliterated


Here


What really jumps out, though, is a blob of green, yellow, orange, and red covering a major swath of northern and eastern Canada. The largest anomalies here exceed 21C (37.8F) above average, which are very large values to be sustained for an entire month.
Temperature statistics for Coral Harbour, Canada, January 2011

To put this picture into even sharper focus, let%s take a look at Coral Harbour, located at the northwest corner of Hudson Bay in the province of Nunavut. On a typical mid-January day, the town drops to a low of 34C (29.2F) and reaches a high of just -26C (14.8F). Compare that to what Coral Harbour actually experienced in the first twelve days of January 2011, as reported by Environment Canada (see table at left).

* After New Years Day, the town went 11 days without getting down to its average daily high.
* On the 6th of the month, the low temperature was 3.7C (25.3F). Thats a remarkable 30C (54F) above average.
* On both the 5th and 6th, Coral Harbor inched above the freezing mark. Before this year, temperatures above 0C (32F) had never been recorded in the entire three months of January, February, and March.

The extremes have been just as impressive when you look high in the atmosphere above these areas. Typically the midpoint of the atmospheres mass the 500-millibar (500 hPa) level rests around 5 kilometers (3 miles) above sea level during the Arctic midwinter. In mid-December, a vast bubble of high pressure formed in the vicinity of Greenland. At the center of this high, the 500-mb surface rose to more than 5.8 kilometers, a sign of remarkably mild air below. Stu Ostro (The Weather Channel) found that this was the most extreme 500-mb anomaly anywhere on the planet in weather analyses dating back to 1948. Details are at the conclusion of Ostro's year-end blog post.

Farther west, a separate monster high developed over Alaska last week. According to Richard Thoman (National Weather Service, Fairbanks), the 500-mb height over both Nome and Kotzebue rose to 582 decameters (5.82 km). Thats not only a January record: those are the highest values ever observed at those points outside of June, July, and August.
The year the sea forgot to freeze
Arctic sea ice extent, 12.21.10
Large areas of open water persisted across much of the area between Greenland and Canada on 21 December 2010. (Image courtesy Cryosphere Today.)

Why so freakishly mild? One factor that both feeds and is fed by the warmth is the highly unusual amount of open water across seas that are normally frozen by late November. On the winter solstice (December 21), Hudson Bay was little more than half frozen (see map aright).

Similarly, a large swath of the Baffin/Newfoundland Sea fell weeks behind schedule in freezing up. As evident in the charts at bottom, these bodies of water remain in catch-up mode. Around the south part of Baffin Island, %u201Cthe boats were still in the water during the first week of January, says David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada. The Meteorological Service of Canada was still writing marine forecasts as of 7 January, well beyond anything we have ever done.

Storm after storm sweeping up the East Coast in recent weeks has pumped warm Atlantic air across eastern Canada, helping postpone the freeze-up even further and allowing temperatures over land to soar far above average.

According to Philips, the implications for people in the far north have been widespread. Nunavut's capital, Iqaluit, had to cancel its year-end snowmobile run on Frobisher Bay for the first time. Last New Years Eve, the big story was ice breaking up., says Phillips. This year there was no ice to break up. Worst of all, he adds, it's impossible for many people in parts of the eastern Arctic to safely get on the ice to hunt much-needed food for their families for the second winter in a row. Never before have we seen weather impact a way of life in so many small and big ways.
Quoting Skyepony:
A study of tree rings recently published in the journal Science provides evidence of climate shifts that, perhaps not coincidentally, occurred from A.D. 250 to 550, a period better known as the fall of the Roman Empire.


Quoting atmoaggie:
Can they really tell if it was too hot, too cold, too dry, too wet, or, simply, if another tree was towering over that one that was studied?

Too many variables for much confidence...


The spatial correlation shown on page 7 in the paper referenced by Skyepony is impressive. Has anybody else seen it? Since it is a pay paper I dare not put this figure up...

Now,

From the recommendations in the Lord Oxburgh report:

Oxburgh Report

"We cannot help remarking that it is very surprising that research in an area that depends so heavily on statistical methods has not been carried out in close collaboration with professional statisticians. Indeed there would be mutual benefit if there were closer collaboration and interaction between CRU and a much wider scientific group outside the relatively small international circle of temperature specialists."

Recent discussion paper on the "hockey stick" from a statistical standpoint:

McShane Wyner

The uncertainty is large.... but (from the editorial by the editor)

"Statisticians are, by their professional nature, skeptics. We often find that researchers in other fields have not taken proper account of all important elements of uncertainty when they analyze data. However, uncertainty is not a basis for inaction. (If it were, none of us would get out of bed in the morning.) [...] The presence of even substantial uncertainties does not necessarily mean that the appropriate response is to wait for better information about the future climate."

I realize that there are those on the blog who find skeptics (like myself) beyond contempt... does this help? Those who maintain that position are merely perpetuating that which was deemed unacceptable in the Oxburgh report.

The study referenced by Skyepony

2500 year European reconstruction

"Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and Medieval prosperity."

I liked this study; it is credible and fits the historical record. I have always said "hockey stick hockey puck" since, well, if there was no medieval warm period, then Jared Diamond's section on Greenland in "Collapse" is nonsense (I don't always agree with Diamond but his thesis on how climate impacts society is interesting).

The hockey stick is passe; more precise statistical work has shown in to be the "green check mark."

Now, AA, if you want something to target with horrible error bars please go after the Dessler paper and anything like it, That also appeared in Science and I myself am not going to take a correlation coefficient of 0,02 as settled science! No matter what those who spurn us "skeptics" say.
Quoting 900MB:


Not many updates on this weeks East Coast storm. Anyone care to give me an idea of whether the low goes off the coast giving me in NYC a blizzard, or does it come right over NYC with rain? Anyone?


Best information for that is over on Blizzard92's blog.
Ike I see you've came out now that their gone.It's fun disscussing "Current" weather.
THESE incredible images, taken over a period of just 22 minutes, were taken on a farm at Helidon on Monday, January 10. The property is just upstream from Grantham - the township that bore the full force of the disaster. There had reportedly never been water on the cultivation before.

Normal to flooded in 22 minutes
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Canada sees staggering mildness as planet’s high-presure record is “obliterated”


Here


In other words, that may be the most intense heat wave in recorded history, in terms of the magnitude and duration; anomalies over 20 degrees C for a month or more (as I wrote in my blog a week ago). The 500 mb anomalies would certainly suggest so; here is a map I saved of the 500 mb heights for December 16 - heights over southern Greenland are higher than anywhere in the entire U.S., possibly including Hawaii (the anomalies were about twice what the scale goes to):



And here are the surface temperature anomalies for the month starting on December 15:



Fortunately, Hudson Bay has completely frozen over and temperatures have returned to more normal levels, although Baffin Bay is still far below normal:

The sea ice on the other side of the planet is doing interesting things right now:

Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Canada sees staggering mildness as planet’s high-presure record is “obliterated”




Yup... Arrhenius over 100 years ago even realized that the Arctic temperatures would substantially rise.

Shouldn't be a news flash (sad that it is).

Who needs the hockey stick the forward modelling is sufficient (although large error bars)
740. 900MB
Quoting PcolaDan:


Best information for that is over on Blizzard92's blog.


Thanks!
EnergyMoron -

To think that the digging up of several 100 million years of carbon , and dumping it all back into the atmosphere , in a geologic nanosecond won't have swift, and severe results isn't being skeptical, it's being naive.
...In the year of the Flood
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Canada sees staggering mildness as planet’s high-presure record is “obliterated”


Here

Followed the links to Stu Ostrow's (TWC) end of year blog, found some interesting stuff on a variety of phenomena over last year.
Quoting EnergyMoron:


The spatial correlation shown on page 7 in the paper referenced by Skyepony is impressive. Has anybody else seen it? Since it is a pay paper I dare not put this figure up...

Now,

From the recommendations in the Lord Oxburgh report:

Oxburgh Report

"We cannot help remarking that it is very surprising that research in an area that depends so heavily on statistical methods has not been carried out in close collaboration with professional statisticians. Indeed there would be mutual benefit if there were closer collaboration and interaction between CRU and a much wider scientific group outside the relatively small international circle of temperature specialists."

Recent discussion paper on the "hockey stick" from a statistical standpoint:

McShane Wyner

The uncertainty is large.... but (from the editorial by the editor)

"Statisticians are, by their professional nature, skeptics. We often find that researchers in other fields have not taken proper account of all important elements of uncertainty when they analyze data. However, uncertainty is not a basis for inaction. (If it were, none of us would get out of bed in the morning.) [...] The presence of even substantial uncertainties does not necessarily mean that the appropriate response is to wait for better information about the future climate."

I realize that there are those on the blog who find skeptics (like myself) beyond contempt... does this help? Those who maintain that position are merely perpetuating that which was deemed unacceptable in the Oxburgh report.

The study referenced by Skyepony

2500 year European reconstruction

"Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and Medieval prosperity."

I liked this study; it is credible and fits the historical record. I have always said "hockey stick hockey puck" since, well, if there was no medieval warm period, then Jared Diamond's section on Greenland in "Collapse" is nonsense (I don't always agree with Diamond but his thesis on how climate impacts society is interesting).

The hockey stick is passe; more precise statistical work has shown in to be the "green check mark."

Now, AA, if you want something to target with horrible error bars please go after the Dessler paper and anything like it, That also appeared in Science and I myself am not going to take a correlation coefficient of 0,02 as settled science! No matter what those who spurn us "skeptics" say.

I don't have a problem with "skeptics"; skepticism is, after all, a necessary part of the scientific process. But I have a large problem with denialists...that is, those who simply ignore the mountains of relevant and corroborating data supporting AGWT, focusing intently on infinitesimal--and usually thoroughly debunked--bits of pseudo-science they feel will validate their refusal of the science. Many people (here and elsewhere) claim to be the former when in all reality they are the latter.

Skepticism = good.
Denialism = stupid.
dang-blasted possums are MEAN, ike


Yeah...But they taste like chicken!
@ColoradoBob -- Looked that up in Merriam Webster. I think this definition applies.

Naive:

2a. deficient in worldly wisdom or informed judgment; especially CREDULOUS

Credulous:

1. ready to believe especially on slight or uncertain evidence

Seems to be the opposite of skeptical.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
dang-blasted possums are MEAN, ike


Yeah...But they taste like chicken!


I watched an animal hoarding show the other night...this guy had 3 cats, 2 dogs (and I'm thinking, ok that's not too bad) then they dropped the bomb: 158 chickens, living IN his house.

I'm not too keen on chickens either at the moment.
Wilma has some cold cloud-tops:


But is fighting Dry Air...


Meanwhile, Anthony is doing pretty good:


But is also fighting Dry Air...
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EST Sunday 23 January 2011
Condition: Sunny
Pressure: 30.29 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: -2.0°F
Dewpoint: -18.9°F
Humidity: 43 %
Wind: NNW 15 mph
Wind Chill: -22
About the recent "record cold"

The last 8 days :

Daytime record highs vs lows ;

198 to 80

Night time record highs vs lows :

272 to 76

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records.php?ts=daily&elem=lomx&month=1&day=15&year=2011&sts[]=US& submitted=Get+Records#recs





Quoting PensacolaDoug:
dang-blasted possums are MEAN, ike


Yeah...But they taste like chicken!


Specially if you slow cook em in a smoker with hickory chips and some SC BBQ sauce (mustard based).

Yummy.


Ref next week's coastal low:
The Local Mets are forecasting the center to pass over Wilmington NC about midnight tuesday as a moderate rain event.
Quoting aquak9:


I watched an animal hoarding show the other night...this guy had 3 cats, 2 dogs (and I'm thinking, ok that's not too bad) then they dropped the bomb: 158 chickens, living IN his house.

I'm not too keen on chickens either at the moment.


I saw that!! Imagine the smell...
Afternoon everyone!
Can tell from this that Wilma is fighting off shear and dry air intrusion. The CDO keeps on collapsing.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Can tell from this that Wilma is fighting off shear and dry air intrusion. The CDO keeps on collapsing.


Looks like it is bursting--going through bursts of convection.
Quoting bappit:

Looks like it is bursting--going through bursts of convection.
Is that suppose to be an ant or bee in your avatar?
I'm telling you right now.I think we'll skip spring like we did last year,and go right into summer.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
About the recent "record cold"

The last 8 days :

Daytime record highs vs lows ;

198 to 80

Night time record highs vs lows :

272 to 76

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records.php?ts=daily&elem=lomx&month=1&day=15&yea r=2011&sts[]=US& submitted=Get Records#recs







Where are you getting hundreds of records during the last 8 days? I plugged in all of January thus far and only got 35 total temperature records tied or broken across all states.

(Edit: You must have been looking at dailies. My bad.)
Quoting Levi32:


Where are you getting hundreds of records during the last 8 days? I plugged in all of January thus far and only got 35 total temperature records tied or broken across all states.

(Edit: You must have been looking at dailies. My bad.)


So, using dailies, the month of January so far has a total number of cold temperature records of 1019, and a total number of warm temperature records of 872. Given the pattern we are in, it is not surprising that cold has the lead.
Not too often you see something like this on the ECMWF. Strong 500mb vortex diving down from Canada so far south dropping the 540 thickness line into the Gulf of Mexico pulling in moisture from the GOM as it advects eastward allowing for widespread snowfall across the southeast all the way down to the Gulf Coast. The ECMWF 00z suggested such a scenario and the 12z run looks a bit better. Just something to watch for this week to see how the models trend.


Memories...Ya got to love them.
Gif Created on Make A Gif
Quoting Drakoen:
Not too often you see something like this on the ECMWF. Strong 500mb vortex diving down from Canada so far south dropping the 540 thickness line into the Gulf of Mexico pulling in moisture from the GOM as it advects eastward allowing for widespread snowfall across the southeast all the way down to the Gulf Coast. The ECMWF 00z suggested such a scenario and the 12z run looks a bit better. Just something to watch for this week to see how the models trend.




GFS and CMC predicting Snow down here (North Texas) for first week of February also.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
EnergyMoron -

To think that the digging up of several 100 million years of carbon , and dumping it all back into the atmosphere , in a geologic nanosecond won't have swift, and severe results isn't being skeptical, it's being naive.


Did I say otherwise?

Since you made an unjust comment I ask you, what is your carbon footprint and what are you doing to reduce it?
Quoting Levi32:


So, using dailies, the month of January so far has a total number of cold temperature records of 1019, and a total number of warm temperature records of 872. Given the pattern we are in, it is not surprising that cold has the lead.

The bulk of those cold records were from the first week of the month, when 20s crept into Florida. Over the past week, for instance, record highs have outnumbered record lows 434 to 128--and all but 15 of those cold records are from yesterday and today.

All in all, unless there's a major shot of cold in the next few days, JB's predicted "Coldest January since 1986" is in serious jeopardy. Not that that's any surprise... ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:

I don't have a problem with "skeptics"; skepticism is, after all, a necessary part of the scientific process. But I have a large problem with denialists...that is, those who simply ignore the mountains of relevant and corroborating data supporting AGWT, focusing intently on infinitesimal--and usually thoroughly debunked--bits of pseudo-science they feel will validate their refusal of the science. Many people (here and elsewhere) claim to be the former when in all reality they are the latter.

Skepticism = good.
Denialism = stupid.


You said the opposite on the last blog:

Quoting Neapolitan:

True that. Skepticism is a healthy and normal part of science and the never-ending search for scientific truth. But most GW "skeptics" aren't interested in that truth; they're interested only in protecting the anti-GW points-of-view they've developed, and if that means blocking others on that search for truth, well, then, that's what they'll do. Call them what you will, but they're not skeptics.


I am a skeptic.. I accept the IPCC error bars.

The official IPCC forecast is doing pretty good BTW from the RealClimate lookback

Real Climate model to actual comparison
Thanks Neapolitan


Quoting Neapolitan:

Looks to me like a layer of iridescent pileus. Nice...

Here's a good explanation.
what a fun site to not visit anymore,, and before , you say goodbye ,, this was a fun and worthwhile site to get reliable weather ,, it had its characters, and some good discussions,, ALL in 6 months, went to hell,,
btw,, my carbon print,, i burn as much gas as i want when i can afford it,, i set brush fires when the time is right,, i plant a little garden in the spring, drink well water,, and if any 1 here , has the slightest thought , you are going to change the weather,, i suggest you seek help , immediate..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (11U)
5:00 AM EST January 24 2011
=========================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category One (991 hPa) located 16.7S 155.3E, or 570 km east of Willis Is and 820 km northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 19 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM in northern quadrant
90 NM in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.6S 158.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 18.5S 160.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.1S 158.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 17.0S 155.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=======================
Current location determined by AMSRE 37GHz.

Lack of organized deep convection suggests system remains weak, suffering shear with proximity to upper trough. Microwave imagery shows a sheared system with broad low level circulation with limited convection in the southeast quadrant

FT of 2.5 based on MET.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW
5:00 AM CST January 24 2011
=======================================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) is located at 14.7S 128.1E, or about 85 kilometers north of Wyndham is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

The low is expected to continue moving west southwest during the day.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
6:00 AM FST January 24 2011
===================================

Warning for Tokelau
======================
A Tropical Cyclone Warning is now in force for Tokelau Island

Warnings for Tonga
======================

A Gale Warning is now in force for Niuatoputapu and Vovau group.

A Tropical Cyclone Alert is now in force for Tonga.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings for Fiji
====================================
A Tropical Cyclone Alert is now in force for Moala and Lau Group

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Wilma, Category One (990 hPa) located at 14.0S 171.0W has 10 minute winds of 40 knots and is reported as moving south southwest at 12 knots. Position POOR based on GOES enhance infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center in the northeast and southeast quadrant

Additional Information
=========================

System overall organization remains steady last 24 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region and under a moderately sheared environment. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast track. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.65 LOG10 spiral yielding DT=3.0, MET=3.0, PT=3.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS.

Most global models move Cyclone WILMA southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 16.1S 171.7W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 18.4S 173.6W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 22.6S 178.4W - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 2:30 AM UTC..
Quoting Tazmanian:



what kind of laptop do you have
hey Taz... I have a Toshiba and an Acer... one of the Aspires.... which is what I usually use at Starbucks. I'm thinking about replacing my Toshiba this spring; I've been having difficulty with graphics downloads, basically because of my (now) small-seeming memory.... any suggestions on what the discerning tropical wx follower should get?

This set up could bring huge snowfall for the Appalachians..
Quoting hydrus:
This set up could bring huge snowfall for the Appalachians..


Doesn't look so bad to HPC




iam heading out to have a BBQ putting some strip tenderlion on now with mashed potatoes gravey saut'e white whole mushrooms with a ceasar salad hmmmm good

Quoting BahaHurican:
hey Taz... I have a Toshiba and an Acer... one of the Aspires.... which is what I usually use at Starbucks. I'm thinking about replacing my Toshiba this spring; I've been having difficulty with graphics downloads, basically because of my (now) small-seeming memory.... any suggestions on what the discerning tropical wx follower should get?




hi mail for you
Some interesting forecasts on 2011 so far. After next week my work schedule should be lighter for a while, so hopefully I'll be able to catch up on some back reading wx wise...

Meanwhile I'm out for now... got a few errands to run before it gets completely dark here... only up to 70 so far to day, but still that is not as cool as some days last month...

later, all.
.
782. xcool
128 days
Quoting BahaHurican:
Some interesting forecasts on 2011 so far. After next week my work schedule should be lighter for a while, so hopefully I'll be able to catch up on some back reading wx wise...

Meanwhile I'm out for now... got a few errands to run before it gets completely dark here... only up to 70 so far to day, but still that is not as cool as some days last month...

later, all.



mail for you
784. xcool
hey taz ike Levi32 Drakoen
Quoting xcool:
hey taz ike Levi32 Drakoen



????/
With the global temperature dipping downward again this week, January, 2011 (red line) is likely to ring in as a colder than normal month relative to the 30-year average (orange line), and a whole lot colder than 2010 (cyan line).

Before someone gets upset....does this fact mean anything significant in regards to long-term climate? No. It is simply a strong La Nina with the Pacific going into its cold cycle, and it will be interesting to see if it becomes a multi-year event similar to the 1950s.

787. xcool
788. xcool
Tazmanian this scott .
789. xcool
brb
The sun is becoming quiet again after a slight ramp up in the past couple days due to one sunspot group. We are still extraordinarily behind where we should be this far into the cycle.

Quoting EnergyMoron:


You said the opposite on the last blog:



I am a skeptic.. I accept the IPCC error bars.

The official IPCC forecast is doing pretty good BTW from the RealClimate lookback

Real Climate model to actual comparison

Do you really think I said the opposite? Then either I misspoke or you missed the quotation marks around the word skeptics. Those indicate sarcasm, and I used them in the earlier comment to underline my belief that most self-described GW "skeptics"--and note I did not say all--aren't truly skeptical, at least the way scientific skepticism is defined; they are, instead, deniers (or contrarians, or denialists, or whatever).
792. DEKRE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Hi, it would be nice if you stopped inserting live Flash presentations - they keep updating continuously and there is no way to stop them
Nino 3.4 not ready to go up just yet.

Quoting hydrus:
This set up could bring huge snowfall for the Appalachians..
Who cares about them.I want huge snowfall in D.C.
Quoting DEKRE:


Hi, it would be nice if you stopped inserting live Flash presentations - they keep updating continuously and there is no way to stop them


I'm not getting any increase in network activity due to rapidfire updating.

There are other heavy uploads though, which you can get to stop by pressing ESC or the browser stop button, a few seconds after refreshing.
796. DEKRE
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I'm not getting any increase in network activity due to rapidfire updating.

There are other heavy uploads though, which you can get to stop by pressing ESC or the browser stop button, a few seconds after refreshing.


The browser stop button makes no difference and the source of the incoming data is stationdata.wunderground.com

Traffic is in both directions - not much, but I don't like applications to contact any site without my approval.
Notice how with the NAO now positive, the trade winds have increased and become stronger than normal over the tropical Atlantic. If the AO and NAO remain positive in the long term, this is likely to start reversing the current SST profile in the Atlantic.

Packers going to the Super Bowl.
Quoting Cochise111:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/22/the-metrology-of-thermometers/#more-32172

The above article demonstrates the complete fallacy of using thermometers, much less thermometers in incorrectly-sited weather stations, to measure surface temperature. It's a joke that we're discussing "global warming" measurements of tenths of a degree when most thermometers aren't that accurate to begin with.


Doubt if you'll get much discussion about that for two reasons:

1. Posted by the AGW crowd's favorite whipping boy, Watts (even though he wasn't the author).

Originally posted here:

http://pugshoes.blogspot.com/2010/10/metrology.html

2. Calls into question one of their basic tenants, that the thermometer record is infallible, and error-free.
Quoting DEKRE:


Hi, it would be nice if you stopped inserting live Flash presentations - they keep updating continuously and there is no way to stop them

You can press the 'HIDE' button--or put the user on (temporary?) ignore...
801. DEKRE
Quoting Neapolitan:

You can press the 'HIDE' button--or put the user on (temporary?) ignore...


Tried, doesn't help
Quoting DEKRE:


The browser stop button makes no difference and the source of the incoming data is stationdata.wunderground.com

Traffic is in both directions - not much, but I don't like applications to contact any site without my approval.


Connecting to stationdata.wunderground.com happens on every page, and on anybody's blog, not just Dr. M's.
Quoting DEKRE:


Tried, doesn't help

Tried which? Putting the user on ignore? Or hiding the "offending" comment? You can also download some apps to disabled Flash animations...

It's your right, of course, but the internet is overflowing with Flash, which is no more dangerous than any client-side piece of scripting. Are you under the impression that the WU one is more dangerous than any others?
Quoting atmoaggie:
Can they really tell if it was too hot, too cold, too dry, too wet, or, simply, if another tree was towering over that one that was studied?

Too many variables for much confidence...

JMHO.


Same problem using almost any tree for accurate measure of past temps. Too many variables.
block stationdata.wunderground.com in your browser...

BTW, Keeper - Having a nice warm winter day in Toronto? Don't you all break out the swimsuits when it gets that warm?
Quoting aquak9:
dang-blasted possums are MEAN, ike.

We find lizerds in our rain gauge, not bird poo.


Global Warming is REALLY bad if it's raining lizards...
Quoting MichaelSTL:


In other words, that may be the most intense heat wave in recorded history, in terms of the magnitude and duration; anomalies over 20 degrees C for a month or more (as I wrote in my blog a week ago). The 500 mb anomalies would certainly suggest so; here is a map I saved of the 500 mb heights for December 16 - heights over southern Greenland are higher than anywhere in the entire U.S., possibly including Hawaii (the anomalies were about twice what the scale goes to):



And here are the surface temperature anomalies for the month starting on December 15:



Fortunately, Hudson Bay has completely frozen over and temperatures have returned to more normal levels, although Baffin Bay is still far below normal:



Then again, this one MAY come close - Most consecutive days above 100 °F (37.8 °C): 160 days; Marble Bar, Western Australia from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924.
808. DEKRE
Quoting Neapolitan:

Tried which? Putting the user on ignore? Or hiding the "offending" comment? You can also download some apps to disabled Flash animations...

It's your right, of course, but the internet is overflowing with Flash, which is no more dangerous than any client-side piece of scripting. Are you under the impression that the WU one is more dangerous than any others?


Tried hiding. Ignore is possible only if you have a blog of your own and, in this case, too drastic.
No, I don't think it is dangerous, I just don't like it
I like to be in control of my computer.
Quoting DEKRE:


Tried hiding. Ignore is possible only if you have a blog of your own and, in this case, too drastic.
No, I don't think it is dangerous, I just don't like it
I like to be in control of my computer.


Now that's just funny!!!
Only way to do that is to avoid sites that post things you don't want. All kinds of sites have auto-refreshing. They don't ask your permission.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Now that's just funny!!!
Only way to do that is to avoid sites that post things you don't want. All kinds of sites have auto-refreshing. They don't ask your permission.


Yeah, and just don't even think about looking at what Google's connecting you to ;-)
Mixed bag coming up this week for West Palm Beach:

812. DEKRE
Quoting PcolaDan:


Now that's just funny!!!
Only way to do that is to avoid sites that post things you don't want. All kinds of sites have auto-refreshing. They don't ask your permission.


I guess I'm rather selective with the sites I visit.
In the meantime, I found that getting rid of LSO cookies helps.
Quoting hydrus:
This set up could bring huge snowfall for the Appalachians..


A pox upon you!! We don't need any snow 'round here.
Quoting DEKRE:


Tried, doesn't help


Try SpyBot SD

http://www.safer-networking.org/index2.html

Once you run it, go to Tools | System Startup and disable any start up programs including any related to wunderground.com

Been using it for about eight years and whenever things start to get slow, I make sure to run it. Sure makes IE run like a good little puppy dog.

Today the internet was running like molasses and after setting SpyBot on to the bad programs the system is back to cable network speed.

And its free.


Quoting DEKRE:


I guess I'm rather selective with the sites I visit.
In the meantime, I found that getting rid of LSO cookies helps.


Clearing them didn't stop stationdata connection for me.
Quoting hcubed:


Same problem using almost any tree for accurate measure of past temps. Too many variables.

You should write a paper on the inaccuracy of proxy data, then get it peer-reviewed; something like that would probably be of great interest to climatologists, paleontologists, and anyone else who works with ice cores, tree rings, coral skeletons, ocean sediments, and the like. Of course, there are going to people upset that their decades of observation, experimentation, collaboration, and verification are now completely worthless--but your paper may just be the key. Whattaya say? ;-)
Quoting calusakat:


Try SpyBot SD

http://www.safer-networking.org/index2.html

Once you run it, go to Tools | System Startup and disable any start up programs including any related to wunderground.com


Disable any startup programs? LOL, that's pretty bad advice. WU has no startup programs that I'm aware of.
Quoting DEKRE:
I like to be in control of my computer.

Well, take it from a web developer: the only way to be truly in control of your computer is to stay off the internet entirely...
Quoting goosegirl1:


A pox upon you!! We don't need any snow 'round here.
I thought it was interesting due to its potential. It could end up being a powerful system. Where is "round here.?
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, take it from a web developer: the only way to be truly in control of your computer is to stay off the internet entirely...
Are you saying that every computer that is on the internet can be attacked?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Disable any startup programs? LOL, that's pretty bad advice. WU has no startup programs that I'm aware of.


Any was part of a typo.

Sorry about that.

What I meant any bad or unnecessary start up programs.

You are given complete and total control of which you choose to disable and they even include explanations about the start up programs so that you can make an informed decision. Because you are only disabling the start up programs, you can easily go in and re-enable them at any time if the computer should start to protest.

As a matter of fact, the program allows you to undo whatever you have done with relative ease.

Okay, you probably be should be knowledgeable about those things...not a guru necessarily...but you should know a wee bit about how the computer works.

Bots , trojans, dialers, all sorts of bad programs definitely do not like SpyBot.



Quoting washingtonian115:
Who cares about them.I want huge snowfall in D.C.


If you lived there, and dug out of 128 inches of snow at one time, dumped out of 3 storms, you might begin to care. And just think, I am only 62 inches tall:) At one small town near where we live, people had to climb out of second story windows and slide down to the street just to get out. Those in single story homes had to tunnel out to the state roads. Now that's a winter storm!

823. DEKRE
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Clearing them didn't stop stationdata connection for me.


You also have to use the stop button after each update of the page
Quoting hydrus:
Are you saying that every computer that is on the internet can be attacked?


Like it was a little kid with candy that the dog wanted.

I recommend using the Motorola Surfboard Cable Modem when you are on a cable internet provider. That way you can easily activate the Standby mode by tapping on the switch located on the top of the unit. The unit is still on, so there is no delay in getting back on the internet later on. Just tap the switch on top again and you are back in business.


It is interesting, no offense intended- we live in eastern WV, on the eastern slopes of the Applachians. We get lots of snow from storms to the east pulling moisture off the Atlantic and dumping it out in the rain shadow. Nor'easters are loads of fun!

Whoops, I'm still having tech trouble this weekend :/ Answer to hydrus!
Quoting calusakat:


Any was part of a typo.

Sorry about that.

What I meant any bad or unnecessary start up programs.

You are given complete and total control of which you choose to disable and they even include explanations about the start up programs so that you can make an informed decision. Because you are only disabling the start up programs, you can easily go in and re-enable them at any time if the computer should start to protest.

As a matter of fact, the program allows you to undo whatever you have done with relative ease.

Okay, you probably be should be knowledgeable about those things...not a guru necessarily...but you should know a wee bit about how the computer works.

Bots , trojans, dialers, all sorts of bad programs definitely do not like SpyBot.





The best feature of SpyBot is Teatimer. Unfortunately, hardly anyone uses it.

A better program for dealing with startup programs is Autoruns.
Quoting hydrus:
Are you saying that every computer that is on the internet can be attacked?


Enable firewall, get SpyBot and enable Teatimer, get Spywareblaster, get a good AV program. Use Adblock Plus for killing adds, if you wish.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


The best feature of SpyBot is Teatimer. Unfortunately, hardly anyone uses it.

A better program for dealing with startup programs is Autoruns.


Thanks for the link.

It looks like a good way to go if a person knows their way around the interior of a computer system.

BTW TeaTimer sure does catch and stop a lot of bad programs. Don't go onto the internet without it, I always say.


Quoting Levi32:
Nino 3.4 not ready to go up just yet.

Not surprising considering the way the SOI has been acting these past few weeks:

Quoting Levi32:
Notice how with the NAO now positive, the trade winds have increased and become stronger than normal over the tropical Atlantic. If the AO and NAO remain positive in the long term, this is likely to start reversing the current SST profile in the Atlantic.

Isn't it currently negative?

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Enable firewall, get SpyBot and enable Teatimer, get Spywareblaster, get a good AV program. Use Adblock Plus for killing adds, if you wish.


Lets not forget about Norton Antivirus Software or other well known software.


Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Enable firewall, get SpyBot and enable Teatimer, get Spywareblaster, get a good AV program. Use Adblock Plus for killing adds, if you wish.
That is a formidable list...What on Earth is Teatimer?
Quoting hydrus:
That is a formidable list...What on Earth is Teatimer?


TeaTimer is part of SpyBot. The best way to learn about it is to go to the site I linked to and read up on what it does.

One more thing that will help protect you is to use an internet provider like Comcast that includes up to date protection, as part of the package, while you are surfing the net.


833. DEKRE
Quoting hydrus:
That is a formidable list...What on Earth is Teatimer?


except that I am on a Mac
Quoting calusakat:


Lets not forget about Norton Antivirus Software or other well known software.




That's what I meant by a good AV program.
Quoting DEKRE:


except that I am on a Mac


You be in deep doodoo.

:-(




Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


That's what I meant by a good AV program.


Oops!

Sorry about that, my fingers got ahead of me.

For me, AV flashes Audio/Video, go figure.

Tap tap is anybody home.


Quoting DEKRE:


except that I am on a Mac


Use Parallels Desktop ;-)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not surprising considering the way the SOI has been acting these past few weeks:

Isn't it currently negative?


Levi's data was from January 7th to the 17th, which about corresponded with the positive period. As for it being now positive, I'm not quite sure what he is talking about.
Quoting calusakat:
For me, AV flashes Audio/Video, go figure.


Yeah, that's what it used to mean, way back when :-)
Quoting hcubed:


Then again, this one MAY come close - Most consecutive days above 100 °F (37.8 °C): 160 days; Marble Bar, Western Australia from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924.

Interesting thing about Marble Bar: that location averages 154 days a year at or above 100.F. The difference that summer is that the monsoon trough stayed well to the north, so there were no cooling TCs that season, and in fact very little rain; just a bit over three inches of precipitation fell over the entire 160-day span.

FWIW, the highest temperature ever recorded in Western Australia was in 1998, when the thermometer reached 122.9. That summer was the hottest ever in Australia; or instance, at Nyang, the average high was 110.

http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/temp1.htm
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (11U)
11:00 AM EST January 24 2011
=========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category One (998 hPa) located 18.3S 157.0E, or 770 km east southeast of Willis Island and 870 km east northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 23 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM in northern quadrant
90 NM in southeastern quadrant
60 NM in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.1S 159.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 19.7S 160.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 19.0S 158.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 18.0S 156.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
Current location based primarily on persistance.

Lack of organized deep convection suggests system remains weak, suffering shear with proximity to an upper trough.

FT of 2.5 based on MET, CI remains at 3.0 due to Dvorak constraints.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Yeah, that's what it used to mean, way back when :-)


Ya caught me.

Been programming computers since Tandy Color Computer. Extended Basic was the first programing I learned on the thing.

Been working on the insides as well since Tandy 2000 / IBM PS 2.

Started web programming in 1998.

And I did/do all that as part hobby - part business related.

Does that age me?

:-)


Do yourselves a huge favor and avoid Norton, Symantec, McAfee, and other major AV apps; these are huge programs that eat up a ton of resources, add numerous dependent programs with many hooks into your system, and are usually difficult to remove. IT gurus in the know use lower cost, lighter weight, and more effective AV packages such as Avast (my favorite, and free for home use) or AVG (also free for home use).
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not surprising considering the way the SOI has been acting these past few weeks:

Isn't it currently negative?



It was positive....and is going there again on the models. Trade winds have increased because of a stronger Icelandic Low.
Quoting calusakat:


Ya caught me.

Been programming computers since Tandy Color Computer. Extended Basic was the first programing I learned on the thing.

Been working on the insides as well since Tandy 2000 / IBM PS 2.

Started web programming in 1998.

And I did/do all that as part hobby - part business related.

Does that age me?

:-)




I used punch cards and a 300 baud DecWriter to submit programs to a mainframe!

BTW, agree w/Nea. The heavys are OK if you have the memory and $$, but the free ones are prob. just as good too, if not better.
Quoting calusakat:


TeaTimer is part of SpyBot. The best way to learn about it is to go to the site I linked to and read up on what it does.

One more thing that will help protect you is to use an internet provider like Comcast that includes up to date protection, as part of the package, while you are surfing the net.


Yo.!..I gots da Comcast package yo..:)
848. BtnTx
Quoting Neapolitan:
Do yourselves a huge favor and avoid Norton, Symantec, McAfee, and other major AV apps; these are huge programs that eat up a ton of resources, add numerous dependent programs with many hooks into your system, and are usually difficult to remove. IT gurus in the know use lower cost, lighter weight, and more effective AV packages such as Avast (my favorite, and free for home use) or AVG (also free for home use).
AVG Internet Security I pay for works great for my 5 computers
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


The best feature of SpyBot is Teatimer. Unfortunately, hardly anyone uses it.

A better program for dealing with startup programs is Autoruns.
A free alternative that I run from time to time is Startup Inspector http://www.windowsstartup.com/startupinspector.php

Kill all of the preloads and extra junk at the next reboot and keep them gone. Your PC will start faster and run better. (I am in no way affiliated, just an avid user)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Do yourselves a huge favor and avoid Norton, Symantec, McAfee, and other major AV apps; these are huge programs that eat up a ton of resources, add numerous dependent programs with many hooks into your system, and are usually difficult to remove. IT gurus in the know use lower cost, lighter weight, and more effective AV packages such as Avast (my favorite, and free for home use) or AVG (also free for home use).
*gasp*
We completely agree on something.
Quoting goosegirl1:


If you lived there, and dug out of 128 inches of snow at one time, dumped out of 3 storms, you might begin to care. And just think, I am only 62 inches tall:) At one small town near where we live, people had to climb out of second story windows and slide down to the street just to get out. Those in single story homes had to tunnel out to the state roads. Now that's a winter storm!

I get jealous whn another place is getting more snow then me.Please don't ask why.I'm a snow competetor!!!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Do yourselves a huge favor and avoid Norton, Symantec, McAfee, and other major AV apps; these are huge programs that eat up a ton of resources. IT gurus in the know use lower cost, lighter weight, more efficient AV packages such as Avast (my favorite, and free for home use) or AVG (also free for home use).


It really depends on the expertise of the user.

If a person is a e-mail junkie and does simple stuff and doesn't go to questionable website, then free stuff like Avast is plenty good enough.

If a regular ( non geek ) person surfers all day and takes chances on the safety of some sites, then Norton/Symantec would probably be the best choice of them all. McAfee is a serious resource hog that slows a computer down significantly.

If a person uses a provider like Comcast or RoadRunner they will find that the company provides a hefty protection for them when they use certain features provided by the internet company. Avast would certainly be a good second layer of protection.

The very best protection is to use a inexpensive laptop that is used solely for internet access or a Dual boot system that allows you to boot to a separate drive when you will be surfing the internet. When you download something, examine with an anti-virus and anti-everything program before saving it to a separate memory location. If you get infested with bad programs, simply reformat and reinstall the operating system for that drive or labtop.

If you are using a Dual Boot system, when you finish surfing the internet, go back through the dual boot and select the other drive that never sees the internet. Then download that program from the memory location mentioned earlier.

Or just learn to be smart about where you surf and be ready and able to scramble when the bad programs start trying to rear their ugly heads.


Go Steelers! I work for the Rooney family.
Good evening all.
800 deaths and 300 still missing in Brasil floods.

Also, check the Mid Atlantic.
More moisture out there than usual for the end of January.
Plenty of dry air too, as expected, north of the moist area.
Hoping to get some continuing rains from that.

Still getting showers, mostly in the Mountains, but every drip helps for the coming dryseason and fires....
Quoting CybrTeddy:
First update of 2011!
South Atlantic active, 2011 predictions 1/23/11
Wonderful!!.But then agian the tell-tell signs won't be very clear until mid spring.I think if la nina stays in place then we could see a season similar to 2007,however if it goes neutral then perhaps a season like 2008 as you mentioned.Now if we do indeed go into a weak El nino remember folks 2004 had a weak El nino,and that didn't stop it from being active/damaging.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I get jealous whn another place is getting more snow then me.Please don't ask why.I'm a snow competetor!!!


Don't worry- I hope you win this one!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Go Steelers! I work for the Rooney family.


Say hello to Mickey for me.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I used punch cards and a 300 baud DecWriter to submit programs to a mainframe!

BTW, agree w/Nea. The heavys are OK if you have the memory and $$, but the free ones are prob. just as good too, if not better.


Wasn't the speed of those first dial-ups...1900 baud?

My Color Computer used a cassette tape deck for saving and loading programs. The printer use a spool that was 4 inches wide, if I remember correctly.

You can get Norton Anti-virus at SamsClub for about $50.

Not that bad when you consider you get continual automatic updates for a year, and since they also provide carriers like Comcast with the latest protections, you can be relatively sure that you will be getting up to date protection too.

Me? I just surf carefully and since I know where to look in the operating system, I can head the bad progs off at the pass.

If I should encounter a problem, Norton Anti-virus would be my choice.


Quoting calusakat:


It really depends on the expertise of the user.

If a person is a e-mail junkie and does simple stuff and doesn't go to questionable website, then free stuff like Avast is plenty good enough.

If a regular ( non geek ) person surfers all day and takes chances on the safety of some sites, then Norton/Symantec would probably be the best choice of them all. McAfee is a serious resource hog that slows a computer down significantly.

If a person uses a provider like Comcast or RoadRunner they will find that the company provides a hefty protection for them when they use certain features provided by the internet company. Avast would certainly be a good second layer of protection.

The very best protection is to use a inexpensive laptop that is used solely for internet access or a Dual boot system that allows you to boot to a separate drive when you will be surfing the internet. When you download something, examine with an anti-virus and anti-everything program before saving it to a separate memory location. If you get infested with bad programs, simply reformat and reinstall the operating system for that drive or labtop.

If you are using a Dual Boot system, when you finish surfing the internet, go back through the dual boot and select the other drive that never sees the internet. Then download that program from the memory location mentioned earlier.

Or just learn to be smart about where you surf and be ready and able to scramble when the bad programs start trying to rear their ugly heads.



In numerous benchmark tests, Avast has proven superior to Norton at catching malicious code. In fact, Avast stops 100% of such code, while even the newer versions of Norton still routinely catch just 98% of malware and 95% of spyware.

I'll disagree with you that Avast is just for rookies and n00bs; it's been widely adopted by a large number of enterprises for its ability to clamp down where others--including Norton--can't. For my own clients, I save Norton for older computers that are to be recycled soon, or that aren't used online very often; I would never let it run on a production machine.

Here's the most recent chart. Notice where Avast is:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Caveat emptor...
Please Grothar...keep it weather related. It is 10 degrees in Pittsburgh.
Quoting Grothar:


Say hello to Mickey for me.


Or I will post a song by Toni Basil!
Okay then.

I will check it out tomorrow.


Quoting Neapolitan:

In numerous benchmark tests, Avast has proven superior to Norton at catching malicious code. In fact, Avast stops 100% of such code, while even the newer versions of Norton still routinely catch just 98% of malware and 95% of spyware.

I'll disagree with you that Avast is just for rookies and n00bs; it's been widely adopted by a large number of enterprises for its ability to clamp down where others--including Norton--can't. For my own clients, I save Norton for older computers that are to be recycled soon, or that aren't used online very often; I would never let it run on a production machine.

Here's the most recent chart. Notice where Avast is:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Caveat emptor...



863. BtnTx
Quoting Neapolitan:

In numerous benchmark tests, Avast has proven superior to Norton at catching malicious code. In fact, Avast stops 100% of such code, while even the newer versions of Norton still routinely catch just 98% of malware and 95% of spyware.

I'll disagree with you that Avast is just for rookies and n00bs; it's been widely adopted by a large number of enterprises for its ability to clamp down where others--including Norton--can't. For my own clients, I save Norton for older computers that are to be recycled soon, or that aren't used online very often; I would never let it run on a production machine.

Here's the most recent chart. Notice where Avast is:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

Caveat emptor...
Thanks; I will stay with AVG as planned
Quoting BtnTx:
Thanks; I wil stay with AVG as planned

Wise decision... ;-)
IT Sunday during the AFC Championship?



Sheesh..

Im so not a Geek.

Quoting goosegirl1:


Don't worry- I hope you win this one!
By the looks of things doesn't look like it.Palm face.(*__*).
867. BtnTx
It is good to see some technology sharing on this blog as there must be a lot of expert users here.
Quoting BtnTx:
It is good to see some technology sharing on this blog as there must be a lot of expert users here.


Definitely beats some of the other "discussions" that have been going on here lately.
Yeah,,Science takes a beating to craziness from the er,,,crazies,
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW 12U
10:00 AM WST January 24 2011
=======================================

At 8:00 am WST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 14.7S 127.1E (over land), or 65 kms southeast of Kalumburu and 630 kms northeast of Broome ha 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone early on Wednesday by which time it is expected to be north of Eighty Mile Beach and moving steadily towards the southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours but could develop early on Wednesday.

Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and Broome during Monday and Tuesday. Localised stream rises are likely but extensive flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday there is likely to be heavy rainfall along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, extensive flooding is not expected.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Mardie.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.2S 125.7E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.2S 124.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 18.4S 119.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 20.3S 114.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
========================
If the system was over water a T1.0 could be maintained [previously assigned while over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf]. 24 hour pressure falls in the vicinity of the low are of the order 1.5-1.0 hPa. Wind speeds over land are low. The highest wind speeds evident are at Troughton Island where 10-min winds are reaching 25 knots at times. Vertical shear has been slowly easing with the CIMSS analysis now showing slightly less than 20 knots across the LLCC with stronger shear to the north.

Shear is likely to further reduce and by Wednesday nly moderate shear is expected. By then the dry air that has been evident over the last couple of days should no longer be an impediment and with significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast the system is expected to develop at close to the climatological rate during Wednesday and into Thursday.

The system is expected to be steered steadily southwest by a strong mid-level ridge until Friday when an amplifying trough will weaken the ridge and the system will take a more southwards track.
Sri Lanka floods destroy crops.

The people of Sri Lanka are trying to cope with the effects of the worst floods that have hit the country in more than 50 years.

And it is not only homes that have been damaged. More than 80 per cent of fields in the main rice-growing area have been washed away.

This is causing fears that a food crisis may begin.

Al Jazeera's Prerna Suri reports from Batticaloa, one of the worst affected areas.



Saranac Lake, New York (Airport)
Rest of Tonight Clear and frigid. Patchy ice crystals. Near record lows of 25 below to 40 below zero. Light and variable winds.

It's that cold that ice crystals fall?
Quoting Neapolitan:

In numerous benchmark tests, Avast has proven superior to Norton at catching malicious code. In fact, Avast stops 100% of such code, while even the newer versions of Norton still routinely catch just 98% of malware and 95% of spyware.

I'll disagree with you that Avast is just for rookies and n00bs; it's been widely adopted by a large number of enterprises for its ability to clamp down where others--including Norton--can't. For my own clients, I save Norton for older computers that are to be recycled soon, or that aren't used online very often; I would never let it run on a production machine.

Here's the most recent chart. Notice where Avast is:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Caveat emptor...


Wheres Microsoft Security Essentials fall?
Quoting BtnTx:
It is good to see some technology sharing on this blog as there must be a lot of expert users here.



I agree. Nice exchange of perspective.

Thanks to those who shared.
This.Winter.Suuuuuuuucks.


Tropical Low 12 track for the next 3 days.
Everything,..is relative to the Observer.

Been a Whopper of a East Coast Winter for Millions and also the South.
Quoting Patrap:
IT Sunday during the AFC Championship?



Sheesh..

Im so not a Geek.


I'm multitasking; it's more efficient...
Multitasking in Nola is catching a Parade and Observing the,er sights.



Robert Plant to Open Jazz Fest 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Wheres Microsoft Security Essentials fall?


There are good and bad reviews. I would recommend using one of the others that have been mentioned instead.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Saranac Lake, New York (Airport)
Rest of Tonight Clear and frigid. Patchy ice crystals. Near record lows of 25 below to 40 below zero. Light and variable winds.

It's that cold that ice crystals fall?


If you have never seen this it is something to behold. As a Florida boy stationed in Minot ND I was in aw. The air literally sparkles with ice crystals floating all around. Absolutely beautiful.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Wheres Microsoft Security Essentials fall?


My personal take - avoid relying on only security from Microsoft. Not because of the product itself, but because Microsoft is THE favorite target of hackers, and any flaws are found quickly.
Quoting Patrap:
Everything,..is relative to the Observer.

Been a Whopper of a East Coast Winter for Millions and also the South.
This comment was probally for me.But I'll reword it.The winter in D.C suuuuucks!!.
885. DEKRE
Quoting Patrap:
Yeah,,Science takes a beating to craziness from the er,,,crazies,


We could always start a discussion Mac vs. PC

:D


Sorry, wrong quote:
PcolaDan 9:11 PM EST on January 23, 2011

Definitely beats some of the other "discussions" that have been going on here lately.
Packers vs. Steelers...Going to be a busy two weeks at work!
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
12:00 PM FST January 24 2011
===================================

Warning for Tokelau
======================
A Tropical Cyclone Warning is now in force for Tokelau Island

Warnings for Tonga
======================

A Storm Warning is now in force for Vavau Group and nearby smaller islands

A Gale Warning is now in force for Niuatoputapu Ha'apai group and nearby smaller islandes.

A Tropical Cyclone Alert is now in force for Tonga.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings for Fiji
====================================

A Strong Wind Warning is now in force for southern Lau Group

A Tropical Cyclone Alert is now in force for southern Lau Group.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Wilma, Category One (990 hPa) located at 15.0S 171.2W has 10 minute winds of 40 knots and is reported as moving south at 10 knots. Position POOR based on hourly GOES enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in the northeast and northeast quadrant and within 150 NM from the center in the southeast quadrant

Additional Information
=========================

System overall organization has improved last 24 hours. Convection has also increased in the last 6 hours. Primary band trying to wrap around low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region. CIMSS indicates a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.70 LOG10 spiral yielding DT=3.0, MET=3.5, PT=3.5. Final Dvorak T number is based on FT.

Dvorak intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

Most global models move Cyclone WILMA southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 17.1S 172.7W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 19.0S 174.8W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 22.6S 179.0W - 55 knots (CAT 2)

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 8:30 AM UTC..
Current Weather Conditions:
Mount Washington, NH, United States
(KMWN) 44-16N 071-18W 1910M
Conditions at

2011.01.24 0155 UTC
Wind from the WNW (300 degrees) at 69 MPH (60 KT)
Visibility 110 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature -31 F (-35 C)
Windchill -79 F (-62 C)
Dew Point -45 F (-43 C)
Relative Humidity 43%
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Tropical Low 12 track for the next 3 days.
Thankgodness the storms are steering clear of the flooded areas.It would be like putting salt on the wound.
Quoting Patrap:
Multitasking in Nola is catching a Parade and Observing the,er sights.



Robert Plant to Open Jazz Fest 2011



Sights, eerrrrr, yes, sights. Can I buy an extra t?
Quoting Neapolitan:

In numerous benchmark tests, Avast has proven superior to Norton at catching malicious code. In fact, Avast stops 100% of such code, while even the newer versions of Norton still routinely catch just 98% of malware and 95% of spyware.

I'll disagree with you that Avast is just for rookies and n00bs; it's been widely adopted by a large number of enterprises for its ability to clamp down where others--including Norton--can't. For my own clients, I save Norton for older computers that are to be recycled soon, or that aren't used online very often; I would never let it run on a production machine.

Here's the most recent chart. Notice where Avast is:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Caveat emptor...
I also like the AVG link scanner when using a search engine. Very useful and easy for the novice users.

Google something and know that the link you are about to click on is reasonably well deemed safe, or not.
Quoting DEKRE:


We could always start a discussion Mac vs. PC

:D


Sorry, wrong quote:
PcolaDan 9:11 PM EST on January 23, 2011

Definitely beats some of the other "discussions" that have been going on here lately.


That one is never good, because then those LINUX people get all uppity. LOL
Quoting PcolaDan:


That one is never good, because then those LINUX people get all uppity. LOL
And why not?

Impossible for a user to hose the operating system by running into some malware in Linux...

I only use Windoze on a machine I am willing to wipe clean. No data, no pics, no nuthin. Only then is Windoze okay.








Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues

Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit


NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com






History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster.

5
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TIPS



Hurricane hazards come in many forms: storm surge, high winds, tornadoes, and flooding. This means it is important for your family to have a plan that includes all of these hazards. Look carefully at the safety actions associated with each type of hurricane hazard and prepare your family disaster plan accordingly. But remember this is only a guide. The first and most important thing anyone should do when facing a hurricane threat is to use common sense.

You should be able to answer the following questions before a hurricane threatens:

*
What are the Hurricane Hazards?
*
What does it mean to you?
*
What actions should you take to be prepared?

Hurricanes and Your Health and Safety


* The great majority of injuries during a hurricane are cuts caused by flying glass or other debris. Other injuries include puncture wounds resulting from exposed nails, metal, or glass, and bone fractures.
* State and local health departments may issue health advisories or recommendations particular to local conditions. If in doubt, contact your local or state health department.
* Make sure to include all essential medications -- both prescription and over the counter -- in your family's emergency disaster kit.


* Hurricanes, especially if accompanied by a tidal surge or flooding, can contaminate the public water supply. Drinking contaminated water may cause illness. You cannot assume that the water in the hurricane-affected area is safe to drink.
* In the area hit by a hurricane, water treatment plants may not be operating; even if they are, storm damage and flooding can contaminate water lines. Listen for public announcements about the safety of the municipal water supply.
* If your well has been flooded, it needs to be tested and disinfected after the storm passes and the floodwaters recede. Questions about testing should be directed to your local or state health department.

Water Safety

* Use bottled water that has not been exposed to flood waters if it is available.
* If you don't have bottled water, you should boil water to make it safe. Boiling water will kill most types of disease-causing organisms that may be present. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for boiling. Boil the water for one minute, let it cool, and store it in clean containers with covers.
* If you can't boil water, you can disinfect it using household bleach. Bleach will kill some, but not all, types of disease-causing organisms that may be in the water. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for disinfection. Add 1/8 teaspoon (or 8 drops) of regular, unscented, liquid household bleach for each gallon of water, stir it well and let it stand for 30 minutes before you use it. Store disinfected water in clean containers with covers.
* If you have a well that has been flooded, the water should be tested and disinfected after flood waters recede. If you suspect that your well may be contaminated, contact your local or state health department or agriculture extension agent for specific advice.

Food Safety

* Do not eat any food that may have come into contact with flood water.
* Discard any food that is not in a waterproof container if there is any chance that it has come into contact with flood water. Food containers that are not waterproof include those with screw-caps, snap lids, pull tops, and crimped caps. Also, discard cardboard juice/milk/baby formula boxes and home canned foods if they have come in contact with flood water, because they cannot be effectively cleaned and sanitized.
* Inspect canned foods and discard any food in damaged cans. Can damage is shown by swelling; leakage; punctures; holes; fractures; extensive deep rusting; or crushing/denting severe enough to prevent normal stacking or opening with a manual, wheel-type can opener.
* Undamaged, commercially prepared foods in all-metal cans and retort pouches (for example, flexible, shelf-stable juice or seafood pouches) can be saved if you do the following:
o Remove the labels, if they are the removable kind, since they can harbor dirt and bacteria.
o Thoroughly wash the cans or retort pouches with soap and water, using hot water if it is available.
o Brush or wipe away any dirt or silt.
o Rinse the cans or retort pouches with water that is safe for drinking, if available, since dirt or residual soap will reduce the effectiveness of chlorine sanitation.
o Then, sanitize them by immersion in one of the two following ways:
+ place in water and allow the water to come to a boil and continue boiling for 2 minutes, or
+ place in a freshly-made solution consisting of 1 tablespoon of unscented liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available) for 15 minutes.
* Air dry cans or retort pouches for a minimum of 1 hour before opening or storing.
* If the labels were removable, then re-label your cans or retort pouches, including the expiration date (if available), with a marker.
* Food in reconditioned cans or retort pouches should be used as soon as possible, thereafter.
* Any concentrated baby formula in reconditioned, all-metal containers must be diluted with clean, drinking water.
* Thoroughly wash metal pans, ceramic dishes, and utensils (including can openers) with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize them by boiling in clean water or immersing them for 15 minutes in a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available).
* Thoroughly wash countertops with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize by applying a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available). Allow to air dry.

Frozen and Refrigerated Foods

* If you will be without power for a long period:
o ask friends to store your frozen foods in their freezers if they have electricity;
o see if freezer space is available in a store, church, school, or commercial freezer that has electrical service; or
o use dry ice, if available. Twenty-five pounds of dry ice will keep a ten-cubic-foot freezer below freezing for 3-4 days. Use care when handling dry ice, and wear dry, heavy gloves to avoid injury.
* Your refrigerator will keep foods cool for about four hours without power if it is unopened. Add block or dry ice to your refrigerator if the electricity will be off longer than four hours.
* Thawed food can usually be eaten if it is still "refrigerator cold," or re-frozen if it still contains ice crystals.
* To be safe, remember, "When in doubt, throw it out." Discard any food that has been at room temperature for two hours or more, and any food that has an unusual odor, color, or texture.

Sanitation and Hygiene

It is critical for you to remember to practice basic hygiene during the emergency period. Always wash your hands with soap and water that has been boiled or disinfected:

* before preparing or eating
* after toilet use
* after participating in cleanup activities; and
* after handling articles contaminated with floodwater or sewage.

If there is flooding along with a hurricane, the waters may contain fecal material from overflowing sewage systems and agricultural and industrial waste. Although skin contact with floodwater does not, by itself, pose a serious health risk, there is risk of disease from eating or drinking anything contaminated with floodwater.

If you have any open cuts or sores that will be exposed to floodwater, keep them as clean as possible by washing them with soap and applying an antibiotic ointment to discourage infection. If a wound develops redness, swelling, or drainage, seek immediate medical attention.

Do not allow children to play in floodwater areas. Wash children's hands frequently (always before meals), and do not allow children to play with floodwater-contaminated toys that have not been disinfected. You can disinfect toys using a solution of one cup of bleach in five gallons of water.

Immunizations

Outbreaks of communicable diseases after hurricanes are unusual. However, the rates of diseases that were present before a hurricane may increase because of a lack of sanitation or overcrowding in shelters. Increases in infectious diseases that were not present before the hurricane are not a problem, so mass vaccination programs are unnecessary.

If you have wounds, you should be evaluated for a tetanus immunization, just as you would at any other time of injury. If you receive a puncture wound or a wound contaminated with feces, soil, or saliva, have a doctor or health department determine whether a tetanus booster is necessary based on individual records.

Specific recommendations for vaccinations should be made on a case-by-case basis, or as determined by local and state health departments.

Mosquitoes

Rain and flooding in a hurricane area may lead to an increase in mosquitoes. Mosquitoes are most active at sunrise and sunset. In most cases, the mosquitoes will be pests but will not carry communicable diseases. It is unlikely that diseases which were not present in the area prior to the hurricane would be of concern. Local, state, and federal public health authorities will be actively working to control the spread of any mosquito-borne diseases.

To protect yourself from mosquitoes, use screens on dwellings, and wear clothes with long sleeves and long pants. Insect repellents that contain DEET are very effective. Be sure to read all instructions before using DEET. Care must be taken when using DEET on small children. Products containing DEET are available from stores and through local and state health departments.

To control mosquito populations, drain all standing water left in open containers outside your home.

Mental Health

The days and weeks after a hurricane are going to be rough. In addition to your physical health, you need to take some time to consider your mental health as well. Remember that some sleeplessness, anxiety, anger, hyperactivity, mild depression, or lethargy are normal, and may go away with time. If you feel any of these symptoms acutely, seek counseling. Remember that children need extra care and attention before, during, and after the storm. Be sure to locate a favorite toy or game for your child before the storm arrives to help maintain his/her sense of security. Your state and local health departments will help you find the local resources, including hospitals or health care providers, that you may need.

Seeking Assistance after a Hurricane

SEEKING DISASTER ASSISTANCE: Throughout the recovery period, it is important to monitor local radio or television reports and other media sources for information about where to get emergency housing, food, first aid, clothing, and financial assistance. The following section provides general information about the kinds of assistance that may be available.

DIRECT ASSISTANCE: Direct assistance to individuals and families may come from any number of organizations, including: the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and other volunteer organizations. These organizations provide food, shelter, supplies and assist in clean-up efforts.

THE FEDERAL ROLE: In the most severe disasters, the federal government is also called in to help individuals and families with temporary housing, counseling (for post-disaster trauma), low-interest loans and grants, and other assistance. The federal government also has programs that help small businesses and farmers.

Most federal assistance becomes available when the President of the United States declares a Major Disaster for the affected area at the request of a state governor. FEMA will provide information through the media and community outreach about federal assistance and how to apply.

Coping after a Hurricane Everyone who sees or experiences a hurricane is affected by it in some way. It is normal to feel anxious about your own safety and that of your family and close friends. Profound sadness, grief, and anger are normal reactions to an abnormal event. Acknowledging your feelings helps you recover. Focusing on your strengths and abilities helps you heal. Accepting help from community programs and resources is healthy. Everyone has different needs and different ways of coping. It is common to want to strike back at people who have caused great pain. Children and older adults are of special concern in the aftermath of disasters. Even individuals who experience a disaster �second hand� through exposure to extensive media coverage can be affected.

Contact local faith-based organizations, voluntary agencies, or professional counselors for counseling. Additionally, FEMA and state and local governments of the affected area may provide crisis counseling assistance.

Minimize this emotional and traumatic experience by being prepared, not scared and therefore you and your family will stay in control and survive a major hurricane.

SIGNS OF HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Difficulty communicating thoughts.
* Difficulty sleeping.
* Difficulty maintaining balance in their lives.
* Low threshold of frustration.
* Increased use of drugs/alcohol.
* Limited attention span.
* Poor work performance.
* Headaches/stomach problems.
* Tunnel vision/muffled hearing.
* Colds or flu-like symptoms.
* Disorientation or confusion.
* Difficulty concentrating.
* Reluctance to leave home.
* Depression, sadness.
* Feelings of hopelessness.
* Mood-swings and easy bouts of crying.
* Overwhelming guilt and self-doubt.
* Fear of crowds, strangers, or being alone.

EASING HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Talk with someone about your feelings - anger, sorrow, and other emotions - even though it may be difficult.
* Seek help from professional counselors who deal with post-disaster stress.
* Do not hold yourself responsible for the disastrous event or be frustrated because you feel you cannot help directly in the rescue work.
* Take steps to promote your own physical and emotional healing by healthy eating, rest, exercise, relaxation, and meditation.
* Maintain a normal family and daily routine, limiting demanding responsibilities on yourself and your family.
* Spend time with family and friends.
* Participate in memorials.
* Use existing support groups of family, friends, and religious institutions.
* Ensure you are ready for future events by restocking your disaster supplies kits and updating your family disaster plans.
Quoting atmoaggie:
And why not?

Impossible for a user to hose the operating system by running into some malware in Linux...

I only use Windoze on a machine I am willing to wipe clean. No data, no pics, no nuthin. Only then is Windoze okay.


Linux has it's vulnerabilities, esp. the kernel. But it is a far less common target than any other OS.
Quoting atmoaggie:
And why not?

Impossible for a user to hose the operating system by running into some malware in Linux...

I only use Windoze on a machine I am willing to wipe clean. No data, no pics, no nuthin. Only then is Windoze okay.


HAHAHA Knew this one would pull you back. :)



* Increased use of drugs/alcohol



It is my admittedly, unscientific conclusion, that such behavior contributes, to the "sights".
* Limited attention span.

Except when there are "sights."
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
* Limited attention span.

Except when there are "sights."



Is there a face on the planet that doesn't at least look, at the "sights"


How else can one make sense of the fashion industry?
Linux, nope, prep/buy your docking stations. It is coming fast, and including the biometrics part :)

Just sayin, goodbye laptops ~~~~~

It begins,,,,,,,

Hello everyone....I have a blog question...I am aware of what the + (like), - (dislike), ! (report) icons do....and I know the report goes to ADM..but if I + a blog, is the blogger made aware...or is there a way to check likes and dislikes?
Not really..only way one can kinda see how there being accepted post wise is to Log out.

If you see your handle,,your reaching,,if it greyed out,,u not to well received
Go all the way Steelers!









Quoting Neapolitan:

You should write a paper on the inaccuracy of proxy data, then get it peer-reviewed; something like that would probably be of great interest to climatologists, paleontologists, and anyone else who works with ice cores, tree rings, coral skeletons, ocean sediments, and the like. Of course, there are going to people upset that their decades of observation, experimentation, collaboration, and verification are now completely worthless--but your paper may just be the key. Whattaya say? ;-)


People have. What happens when papers are written using the same data (or updated proxies from same area), and they show opposite results from those papers already written?

Try Graybill vs Abeneh, Sheep Mountain data.

Try Mann08, using an upside down Lake Korttajarvi sediment proxy (despite warning from Tiljander that the sediments had been heavily contaminated by modern construction and farming, making them totally unsuitable for inclusion in the Mann 2008 study).

Or try any number of proxies that ended in the 80's (and which an update could be used to how well their programs deal with the warm 90's).

What happens to the proxies after 1980? Given the observed warmth of the 1990s, and with 1998 being the %u201Cwarmest year ever", you%u2019d think that the proxy values would skyrocket.

Why don't those climatologists, paleontologists, and anyone else who works with ice cores, tree rings, coral skeletons, ocean sediments, and the like, simply update their data to check their theories?

Well, some did, and found this:

Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: a review
K.R. Briffa, T.J. Osborn, F.H. Schweingruber

Abstract
This paper is concerned with dendroclimatic research aimed at representing the history of very large-scale temperature changes. It describes recent analyses of the data from a widespread network of tree-ring chronologies, made up of ring width and densitometric measurement data spanning three to six centuries. The network was built over many years from trees selected to maximise their sensitivity to changing temperature. This strategy was adopted so that temperature reconstructions might be achieved at both regional and very large spatial scales. The focus here is on the use of one growth parameter: maximum latewood density (MXD). The detailed nature of the temperature sensitivity of MXD across the whole network has been explored and the dominant common influence of mean April%u2013September temperature on MXD variability is demonstrated.

Different approaches to reconstructing past temperature for this season include the production of detailed year-by-year gridded maps and wider regional integrations in the form of subcontinental and quasi-hemispheric-scale histories of temperature variability spanning some six centuries.

These %u201Chemispheric%u2019 summer series can be compared with other reconstructions of temperature changes for the Northern Hemisphere over the last millennium. The tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions show the clear cooling effect of large explosive volcanic eruptions. They also exhibit greater century-timescale variability than is apparent in the other hemispheric series and suggest that the late 15th and the 16th centuries were cooler than indicated by some other data.

However, in many tree-ring chronologies, we do not observe the expected rate of ring density increases that would be compatible with observed late 20th century warming. This changing climate sensitivity may be the result of other environmental factors that have, since the 1950s, increasingly acted to reduce tree-ring density below the level expected on the basis of summer temperature changes. This prevents us from claiming unprecedented hemispheric warming during recent decades on the basis of these tree-ring density data alone. Here we show very preliminary results of an investigation of the links between recent changes in MXD and ozone (the latter assumed to be associated with the incidence of UV radiation at the ground).

Your turn...
Quoting calusakat:


Wasn't the speed of those first dial-ups...1900 baud?

My Color Computer used a cassette tape deck for saving and loading programs. The printer use a spool that was 4 inches wide, if I remember correctly.

You can get Norton Anti-virus at SamsClub for about $50.

Not that bad when you consider you get continual automatic updates for a year, and since they also provide carriers like Comcast with the latest protections, you can be relatively sure that you will be getting up to date protection too.

Me? I just surf carefully and since I know where to look in the operating system, I can head the bad progs off at the pass.

If I should encounter a problem, Norton Anti-virus would be my choice.




No, the first modem I had for the Commodore64 was a 300 baud modem.
Quoting Patrap:
Not really..only way one can kinda see how there being accepted post wise is to Log out.

If you see your handle,,your reaching,,if it greyed out,,u not to well received



A fair assessment, generally speaking.


However, to get the true perspective of the blog as a whole, one must select: show all.
Quoting Patrap:
Not really..only way one can kinda see how there being accepted post wise is to Log out.

If you see your handle,,your reaching,,if it greyed out,,u not to well received


Thank you, I understand :)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Hello everyone....I have a blog question...I am aware of what the + (like), - (dislike), ! (report) icons do....and I know the report goes to ADM..but if I + a blog, is the blogger made aware...or is there a way to check likes and dislikes?


Nope, as you can view, a few bloggers, in concert make me disappear to the un-logged-in world, and they are very prejudice, as an example. Most normal folks don't click anything. Just sayin, There ya go on this site :)

Some of us, can't change who we are!



Trying to post a video...Hmmmm
Only control I use is the Hide mostly..and the ! for obvious troll images and such.

Never touch the Plus or minus ones.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Trying to post a video...Hmmmm


Gotta select 'Use old embed code' after you choose to embed.
To post a Video,,use the EMBED code and post directly in the comment box, bypassing the Image Button and Post.
Quoting Patrap:
Never touch the Plus or minus ones.



Ditto. Waste of time.
UN calls for aid to help Sri Lanka flood victims

The UN is to launch an appeal for emergency flood aid for Sri Lanka, where at least 37 people have died. . Follow us on twitter at http://twitter.com/itn_news .


Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Ditto. Waste of time.


Gotcha !
Several areas of the S. Atlantic have above-average SSTs this year; it will be interesting to see if this portends development of tropical systems in this area.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Interesting thing about Marble Bar: that location averages 154 days a year at or above 100.F. The difference that summer is that the monsoon trough stayed well to the north, so there were no cooling TCs that season, and in fact very little rain; just a bit over three inches of precipitation fell over the entire 160-day span.

FWIW, the highest temperature ever recorded in Western Australia was in 1998, when the thermometer reached 122.9. That summer was the hottest ever in Australia; or instance, at Nyang, the average high was 110.

http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/temp1.htm


Averages 154 days/year over 100F, and still hasn't beat or tied a 90 year record of 160 days - during the warmest decades ever?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Gotta select 'Use old embed code' after you choose to embed.


Thank you!
Did I stretch the blog?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Did I stretch the blog?


Dunno, I don't use that other browser ;-)

You won't if you choose 480x385 graphic size.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Dunno, I don't use that other browser ;-)

You won't if you choose 480x385 graphic size.


I am on IE...it was Pat's post. All fixed now. Thank you again.
The developers here at wunderground design all the site for FireFox.
Okay Pat for post 894 you just won a rward for one of the longest post so far this year.



Use the Hide feature.

Its a Long Standing Seasonal Entry,in a Blog Post form.

Send the reward to New Orleans,,
Quoting Snowfire:
Several areas of the S. Atlantic have above-average SSTs this year; it will be interesting to see if this portends development of tropical systems in this area.
I think record sst will continue this hurricane season.If the NAO continues to stay negative like it has almost all winter we can continue to see a rise of those sst over the tropical atlantic.However if the NAO goes positive,and stay positive then we'll see a sst gradually cooling.
Quoting hcubed:


Averages 154 days/year over 100F, and still hasn't beat or tied a 90 year record of 160 days - during the warmest decades ever?

Read the whole article to which I linked; the 160-day record was caused by the lack of a monsoonal trough and its attendant cooling that season.
Quoting Patrap:
Only control I use is the Hide mostly..and the ! for obvious troll images and such.

Never touch the Plus or minus ones.

I will during the main season if I think there is a troll conspiracy to drop a particular blogger out of view.
Quoting Patrap:



Use the Hide feature.

Its a Long Standing Seasonal Entry,in a Blog Post form.

Send the reward to New Orleans,,
If memorie serves correctly then I've seen some longer post on the blog.
Health guru Jack LaLanne passed away today.
Quoting Ossqss:


Nope, as you can view, a few bloggers, in concert make me disappear to the un-logged-in world, and they are very prejudice, as an example. Most normal folks don't click anything. Just sayin, There ya go on this site :)

Some of us, can't change who we are!





at least somebody has a great taste for music :)

That might be one of my favorite songs ever.
What is your favorite "old song" Jed?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What is your favorite "old song" Jed?


The one I was just commenting on actually! Simple Man.

It's more about the voice for me. My favorites are Roy Orbison and Aaron Neville,...and weather related, I've had 3 glorious days of sun, but rain is coming back tonight.
LOL, ya think? AGW in jeopardy..........

It really is not what they tell you,,,,,, math, proxies, well,,,,,, common sense actually! It does not add up. Is it the .28 impact, or 5% with water vapor included? Yea! that makes a big difference, let alone the new knowledge of Ozone not playing like they told us it would, or the terrible news of the impact of Sun's radiational influence on temps, that cut it in half as estimated. Yep, we know everything, NOT! Stay tuned, the slipping of the propaganda is in process.



Do you want to know what the goal is of the related Ideology's?

Read it! Deeply!

http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/agenda21/
We are beginning our 10th straight year with overall flat temperature trends in just about every major data set. This current La Nina, especially if it becomes a multi-year event, will only pull these trends down toward negative slopes.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Thank You....was great...how about an Aaron Neville? :)
As much as I don't want to get back into the GW debate, (and I won't). It absolutely boggles my mind that some people people will have the arrogance call those who refuse to accept a hypothesis that has absolutely no way of proving the earth will continue to dramatically warm and the planet is in crisis because of human contribution of Green House Gasses. You speak to fight for science, yet you deny the very thing that science is all about. How dare you people call yourselves honest speakers of true science. Shame on you.

Scientists that have any bit of honestly left in them to stick to real science, know that science is always changing. And honest scientists know that its just down right foolish to claim something as scientific fact, when we all know science is always learning more, and disproving old flawed theories.

Of course unlike some, I am not brainwashed and neither do I rely on biased sources to tell me that all scientists support Global Warming. I am actually aware of the fact that thousand of scientists still stay honest and aren't so darn arrogant to think they are exceedingly smart to where they think an unproven scientific theory reigns supreme and all who disagree are "deniers".

Keep clinging stubbornly all you want, but Global Warming theories will change, and science will continue to evolve
What song Eye?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What song Eye?


What about "Ava Maria"
Quoting Levi32:
We are beginning our 10th straight year with overall flat temperature trends in just about every major data set. This current La Nina, especially if it becomes a multi-year event, will only pull these trends down toward negative slopes.




be careful Levi your being a "denier" posting things like that :)
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I will during the main season if I think there is a troll conspiracy to drop a particular blogger out of view.


If a blogger that I like (and isn't disruptive or a troll, no idea why some bloggers are hidden when I don't see them posting offensive comments) is being hidden with the setting I use, "Show Bad", I will click on the plus on their comments until they are unhidden.
Quoting Levi32:
We are beginning our 10th straight year with overall flat temperature trends in just about every major data set. This current La Nina, especially if it becomes a multi-year event, will only pull these trends down toward negative slopes.



Hey I have a question, what do you think has caused the weather from being extremely dry to at times record drought followed by a wet January with much of Central Florida having had about 5 to 8 inches this month? (another good rain maker is arriving tuesday)

I mean don't get me wrong, I am very happy the rain is returning, I just know that the dry weather we had likely has much to do with the moderate to strong La Nina in place.

However, what has caused the shift in rainfall patterns in Florida is my question, despite that La Nina is still as strong as ever, or at least from what I know.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


If a blogger that I like (and isn't disruptive or a troll, no idea why some bloggers are hidden when I don't see them posting offensive comments) is being hidden with the setting I use, "Show Bad", I will click on the plus on their comments until they are unhidden.


That sounds like a good idea.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey I have a question, what do you think has caused the weather from being extremely dry to at times record drought followed by a wet January with much of Central Florida having had about 5 to 8 inches this month? (another good rain maker is arriving tuesday)

I mean don't get me wrong, I am very happy the rain is returning, I just know that the dry weather we had likely has much to do with the moderate to strong La Nina in place.

However, what has caused the shift in rainfall patterns in Florida is my question, despite that La Nina is still as strong as ever, or at least from what I know.


From what I'm seeing the precipitation maps for January thus far don't look very different from December.

December 2010:



January 1-20 2011:




I see what you mean though, looking at the Orlando data, which shows a couple good rain events during the last week or so.



I would think it's just because of the pattern for the last week, probably thanks to a more positive NAO, which has allowed higher heights off the eastern seaboard. If you compare the 500mb anomalies for the last 7 days and the last 30 days, you'll see that the last week has had the eastern US trough centered a bit farther west, with more ridging nosing up east of it, allowing a more favorable pattern for precipitation in Florida.

7-day Average 500mb Heights:



30-day Average 500mb Heights:


This AGW talk is wearing me out does anyone know of where a person could find a weather blog mixed with a little Theological discussion. I would never use the term argumentative.
Jedkin~ Agreed..theories will change.. This week the hot topic could be how much faster the oceans could rise than expected. Two new things out..

Climate change: Rising waters threaten North Carolina & national security

Must-read Hansen and Sato paper: We are at a climate tipping point that, once crossed, enables multi-meter sea level rise this century

Have you had college Chemistry for science majors yet? They wouldn't let me out of there til I knew what GHGs absorbed what wavelengths of IR photons & how long they lasted, the sorts of reactions to dismantle them, etc.. They are quite measurable & chemically explained. No big secret that WV is the most abundant GHG & without it our blue marble would be way too cold for us. I remember experiments..CO2 vs methane vs WV vs air vs vacuum in a double glass pane.. which heats up more & how much..use your volumes to workout nightmarish equations. That class started with some "deniers", didn't end with any. I was on a physics quest at the time. Does Met majors have to take the harder Chem for science majors?

THE official death toll from Brazil's mudslide disaster has risen to 803
TRMM is showing alot of unneeded rain.. click pic for large quicktime animation..
Though it is interesting that the current sea-level rise rate since 1992 sits at only 1/8th that which would be required on average for the next 87 years in order to get a meter of sea-level rise this century.

The overall trend in sea-level rise is also hinting at flattening out this decade. In fact, the La Ninas of 2007-2008 and now possibly 2010-2011 appear to succeed in flattening and even decreasing global sea level for a significant portion of time. At any rate, the curve so far doesn't look to be evolving towards exponential like it is advertised to become.

Anthony maybe ~60-65kts at landfall.
Looking at & comparing several sources of data on sea level rise..


good evening/morning fellow bloggers just dropping in to see whats happening here, and to say "holler player" lol
Also sea level rise doesn't happen evenly. It's actually going down a little in some areas and up much more in other areas as it responds to localized heat expansion, the way water piles up as the earth spins & etc.. Satelites like Jason & Grace have made things like the treat to NC much clearer. If you read the article it already happening with the older sewer systems being regularly inundated. They've already moved the lighthouse back & lost other buildings.


Sea level changes between 1993 and 2008 from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellite altimeters. The oceans are colour coded for changes in mean sea level. Yellow and red regions show rising sea level, while green and blue regions show falling sea level. White regions are missing data during parts of the year. On average the global sea level is rising, but complex regional variations are superimposed on this. Credit: Data products from Ssalto/Duacs, distributed by Aviso, with support from CNES.
Quoting Skyepony:
Looking at & comparing several sources of data on sea level rise..




Well the 2nd image looks similar to mine, showing a visible step down in the rate of increase around 2003, continuing through the present. The spike at the very end of the graph is deceiving, since it is only through December, 2009, and doesn't show the counter-dip that completely erased the effect of the spike during the course of 2010.

Also, while I can source my data from what is considered the most reliable sea-level record kept at the University of Colorado, your graphs are from a popular AGW website, which is not an official source. It would be nice to see the source data for global sea level measurements for the past 140 years and the methods of extrapolation from available data.

Quoting hcubed:


No, the first modem I had for the Commodore64 was a 300 baud modem.

+100

Also, isn't it kind of weird how the sea-level is supposed to have risen steadily from 1870 to 1920, when the temperature is believed to have been flat between 1880 and 1920?





Quoting gordydunnot:
This AGW talk is wearing me out does anyone know of where a person could find a weather blog mixed with a little Theological discussion. I would never use the term argumentative.


I'm highly interested in theology. I've made no attempt to hide that. Anytime you're seeking a conversation on the subject, shoot me a WU message.
In fact, global temperature was apparently pretty flat for at least 70 years prior to 1920.

Levi those are tide gauges & satellite data pulled from published papers. GRACE satellite has some really interesting stuff on how water piles up & sloshes around the world & measuring melt & the resulting lift of the continents once they shed some ice.. One of the most fascinating satellites up there.

Interesting melt season in Antarctica this summer on the southern side. They figured out this summer that isn't all frozen solid to bedrock on the bottom side & those ice sheets are buttresses holding much of the rest of it from quickly sliding off into the ocean. Check it out. I'm off to sleep.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Read the whole article to which I linked; the 160-day record was caused by the lack of a monsoonal trough and its attendant cooling that season.


Read it. Seems to have been a natural reason for that record (and the other record mentioned, the fact that the entire Australian continent was untouched by tropical cyclones throughout the season, a rare event in the 20th Century).

Just saying, that what with the increased global warming, that high temperature records would be easier to beat (or so we've been told).
10/4 Kman.Sounds like you also have the proper perspective.I did read most of your discussion the other night. Good for an occasional break but if we can't handle a scientific topic about weather ie. AGW without rancor, I know where that one's heading. MY bad, just being a stick I guess like the blog needs another one.
Quoting Skyepony:
Also sea level rise doesn't happen evenly. It's actually going down a little in some areas and up much more in other areas as it responds to localized heat expansion, the way water piles up as the earth spins & etc.. Satelites like Jason & Grace have made things like the treat to NC much clearer. If you read the article it already happening with the older sewer systems being regularly inundated. They've already moved the lighthouse back & lost other buildings.


Sea level changes between 1993 and 2008 from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellite altimeters. The oceans are colour coded for changes in mean sea level. Yellow and red regions show rising sea level, while green and blue regions show falling sea level. White regions are missing data during parts of the year. On average the global sea level is rising, but complex regional variations are superimposed on this. Credit: Data products from Ssalto/Duacs, distributed by Aviso, with support from CNES.


The most notable thing that shows is the change in the PDO from its warm phase in the 1980s and 90s to the cool phase since about 2000, thus the reduced SLR in the eastern Pacific. That corresponds to a cooling trend in that same area:



But, the change hasn't had any impact on either SLR or temperatures, despite claims to the contrary (at the most, there is a slight slowing in the warming trend, as measured with a 10 year average, several years back, but the trend has resumed). Note too, that the Arctic has warmed by about 2 degrees in the past 20 years - and most of that warming has occurred in the past decade, with 2010 the warmest year by a good margin:



Interestingly, the mid-latitudes of the NH, the most populated part of the globe, shows no warming in the past decade (this is significant because of course most people extrapolate what they see out their window to the globe, regardless of whether that is actually correct).
Quoting MichaelSTL:


The most notable thing that shows is the change in the PDO from its warm phase in the 1980s and 90s to the cool phase since about 2000, thus the reduced SLR in the eastern Pacific. That corresponds to a cooling trend in that same area:



But, the change hasn't had any impact on either SLR or temperatures, despite claims to the contrary (at the most, there is a slight slowing in the warming trend, as measured with a 10 year average, several years back, but the trend has resumed). Note too, that the Arctic has warmed by about 2 degrees in the past 20 years - and most of that warming has occurred in the past decade, with 2010 the warmest year by a good margin:



Interestingly, the mid-latitudes of the NH, the most populated part of the globe, shows no warming in the past decade (this is significant because of course most people extrapolate what they see out their window to the globe, regardless of whether that is actually correct).


Neither does the globe as a whole.

Quoting Jedkins01:
As much as I don't want to get back into the GW debate, (and I won't). It absolutely boggles my mind that some people people will have the arrogance call those who refuse to accept a hypothesis that has absolutely no way of proving the earth will continue to dramatically warm and the planet is in crisis because of human contribution of Green House Gasses.


Arrogance or hypocrisy? Arrogance or hypocrisy? Hmmm. I'm going to go with arrogant hypocrisy.

So let me see if I have your drift here. You're saying that, for about the past 150 years or so, that all climate science is not science.

Ok. I think we got that cleared up. We have your hypothesis. Now all you need to do is supply evidence to back up your hypothesis. And you will need to defend your thesis so make sure it is solid.

But I think some people might need some explanations. You see, there are a lot of industries and governments out there who have been making use of climatological research and models for some time. For example, insurance companies have been using climate models and research to determine rates for decades. Military logistics use climate related data and forecasting to help plan troop deployments and equipment. Fire departments in forest fire areas use climate research to plan out how to attack fires during different parts of the year. The DHS uses climate research to simulate possible airborne toxin dispersals. Agricultural industries use climate research to simulate possible flood scenarios. The list goes on and on. State and local governments more recently have been using regional downscaling models to simulate watershed behavior. Government groups use climate research to track and model the ozone hole. Power companies use climate projections to simulate power requirements of the grid. The CDC uses climate research to determine the potential spread of pathogens like malaria. The list goes on and on.

But that's not all. What you may or may not realize is that climate science is really more of a mixing of several scientific disciplines, such as chemistry, biology, meteorology, etc. . Since climate science is utilizing the research and results from multiple fields, this would imply that clearly some of the science in these fields are wrong as well. I'm sure they would all be very interested in hearing your arguments as to why their science is also incorrect.

That might be a little much for one paper, so you may need to write several and back those up with the appropriate research and data.

You and a lot of other people are under some weird impression that climate science only applies to global warming. That is incorrect. Climate science is used in real world applications and has been for a long time. It is very naive to think that the entire sum of climate research is just global warming, just as it is naive to dismiss an entire branch of science for a single result in one branch of study that you, personally, don't agree with.


You speak to fight for science, yet you deny the very thing that science is all about. How dare you people call yourselves honest speakers of true science. Shame on you.


Hypocrite. You're throwing out an entire branch of science because you don't happen to like one result. Science that is currently supported by observations and research. Science that has been built on the shoulders of several disciplines and decades worth of research and study.

And all you offer for your rejections of this science are emotional arguments and hypocritical rhetoric.

Cognitive dissonance doesn't begin to describe you.




Scientists that have any bit of honestly left in them to stick to real science, know that science is always changing. And honest scientists know that its just down right foolish to claim something as scientific fact, when we all know science is always learning more, and disproving old flawed theories.


Do you live in some sort of separate reality?

Seeing as we are talking about science, let's perform an experiment. Go to any nearby campus's library and search for peer reviewed research on climate related topics in science periodicals like Nature. There about 6,000 reputable science journals, so use the libraries computerized index to see which ones are available. Get back to me with how often new science and results are coming out.

In other words, you're making things up. The science is constantly changing, just like any other science in those periodicals.

The current results from that science shows that the Earth is retaining more heat. The results show an increase in CO2. The results show the beginning effects of climate change. The results are in good agreement with projections.

But that's just for climate research in regards to global warming. I'm sure you'll stumble across plenty of climate research articles that are not related directly to global warming as well.



Of course unlike some, I am not brainwashed and neither do I rely on biased sources to tell me that all scientists support Global Warming. I am actually aware of the fact that thousand of scientists still stay honest and aren't so darn arrogant to think they are exceedingly smart to where they think an unproven scientific theory reigns supreme and all who disagree are "deniers".


The AGU conference is one of the largest gathering of climate scientists in the world. It happens every years and the attendance is usually between about 15,000 to 20,000 scientists (with a lot of other attendees)from fields as diverse as computational science to marine biologists. If anyone wanted a pulpit from which to say all climate science is wrong and they had proof, that would be the place to do it.

I'm sure you'd say at this point that it's just an exclusive club that you need to pay thousands of dollars to get into. And you would be wrong. It costs $60 to get in, $80 bucks if you want to have a poster for the poster session.

These thousands of "honest" climate scientists you know, do they have names? Are they climate scientists? Do they attend these conferences? Because I've never seen them. Or is this yet another allusion to the great climate science conspiracy?




Keep clinging stubbornly all you want, but Global Warming theories will change, and science will continue to evolve


Is there any particular reason why the science shouldn't change? It's changing on at least a monthly basis.

I track climate research pretty closely. To my knowledge there has not been a single peer reviewed science paper that has discredited the current climate science in regards to warming. Not one. Nor has there been any other papers that discredit the science upon which climate science is built. I'm sure you'll just fall back on the tired old conspiracy excuse, but these science journals are responsible for the publishing of just about every single scientifically significant finding planet wide. If there was a conspiracy, then ALL scientific results would be suspect, wouldn't they. You can't trust a peer reviewed science journal that has been compromised.

Unlike you, I am not an arrogant hypocrite who's willing to throw out a branch of science just because my truthiness doesn't like what just one of its results says. That is the very definition of a denier.

The science is solid and has a lot backing it up. When I start seeing REAL science showing up in REAL peer reviewed journals that shows it is wrong, I will be on here saying so and how we were all misguided by the results we previously got. Until then, I will continue to help dispel misinformation, debunk myths, and expose lies generated from the psuedo-science propogandized through emotional arguments and logical fallacies by hypocritical zealots such as yourself.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANTHONY (11U)
5:00 PM EST January 24 2011
=========================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category One (995 hPa) located 18.5S 158.4E, or 1010 km east northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 19 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM in northern quadrant
120 NM in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.2S 160.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 19.3S 160.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.5S 157.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 17.3S 154.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

Shear pattern with approximately 0.75 of a degree separation between the low level centre and the deep convection located to the south of the system, giving DT of 2.5. MT 2.5 and PT 2.0. FT based on DT. CI maintained at 0.5 greater than the FT.

Deep convection weakened out significantly early Monday morning prior to redeveloping to the south of the system during the day. Moderate to strong northwesterly shear is persisting across Tropical Cyclone Anthony with an upper trough extending across the western Coral Sea.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW 12U
3:00 PM WST January 24 2011
=======================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 14.4S 126.4E (over land), or 30 kms west southwest of Kalumburu and 600 kms northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

The low is forecast to take a turn towards the southwest tonight and if it remains over land during the next 12 to 18 hours it is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone until Wednesday. However the low has moved steadily westwards during the day and is close to the west Kimberley coast. If the low moves over the ocean tonight it may develop into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday evening and bring gales to the Kimberley coast. The communities most at risk of gales within 24 hours are those between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque including the communities of Beagle Bay, Cape Leveque, Cockatoo Island and Kuri Bay.

By Wednesday evening the system is expected to be north of Broome and moving steadily towards the southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may develop in coastal areas of the Pilbara on Wednesday.

Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and Broome during Monday and Tuesday. Localised stream rises are likely but extensive flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday there is likely to be heavy rainfall along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, extensive flooding is not expected.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watch
================================
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from Kuri Bay to Wallal.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal communities from Wallal to Exmouth.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.1S 124.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.2S 123.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.5S 118.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.3S 113.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================
Despite still being overland the system is showing improved organisation. 24 hour pressure falls in the vicinity of the low are of the order 3hPa. Wind speeds over land are around 15 knots. Troughton Isalnd is recording 25 to 30 knots. The system has moved steadily westwards during the day and the warning policy has been modified to reflect the risk that the system may go over water earlier than the unshifted model consensus would indicate.

Vertical shear has continued to ease with the CIMSS analysis now showing less than 20 knots across the LLCC. Shear is likely to further reduce and by Wednesday only moderate shear is expected. The dry air that has been evident over the last couple of days no longer appears to be having an influence and with significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast the system is expected to develop at close to the climatological rate during Wednesday and into Thursday.

The system is expected to be steered steadily southwest by a strong mid-level ridge until Friday when an amplifying trough will weaken the ridge and the system will take a more southwards track.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 12U will be at 9:00 AM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
18:00 PM FST January 24 2011
===================================

Warnings for Tonga
======================

Hurricane Warning is now in force for Vavau group and nearby smaller islands

Storm Warning is now in force for Ha'apai group and nearby smaller islands

Gale Warning remains in force for Niuatoputapu and nearby smaller islands

A Tropical Cyclone Alert remains in force for the rest of Tonga

Tropical Cyclone Warnings for Fiji
====================================

A Strong Wind Warning is now in force for southern Lau Group

A Tropical Cyclone Alert is now in force for southern Lau Group.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Wilma, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 15.9S 171.1W has 10 minute winds of 50 knots and is reported as moving south southwest at 11 knots. Position FAIR based on hourly GOES visible/enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in the eastern semicircle, within 90 NM of the center elsewhere

Additional Information
=========================

Organization remains good, cyclone has intensified in the last 12 hours with convection increasing near the low level circulation center. Primary band wrapping around low level circulation center from the south. Outflow good to north and south but developing elsewhere. MJO analysis shows and equatorial Rossby wave over the system. System lies under an upper diffluent region. CIMMS indicates a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.90 LOG10 spiral yielding DT=3.5 MET=3.5 PT=3.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

Most global models move cyclone WILMA southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 17.6S 172.8W - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 19.2S 175.2W - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 21.6S 180.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..
Morning all, from crispy and cool Nassau.... Looks like it's going to be a typical winter day here.... So far so good, anyway.

Interesting to observe that Low over NW OZ.... losing none of its character as it crosses land, and seeming to strengthen... Will be interesting to see if this develops into a serious problem for that part of the NW coast...

975. beell
For tomorrow:



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FL AND SRN GA...

...FLORIDA/SRN GA/FAR SRN SC...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD APPROACHING CNTRL FLORIDA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE DAY WITH CONVECTION
GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
MOVES TOWARD CNTRL FL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE AIRMASS ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA WILL MOISTEN AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. ETA-KF CONTROL RUN OF THE SREF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL FL BY LATE AFTERNOON INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG
. IN
ADDITION TO ABOUT 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 400 M2/S2. THE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...DEFINITELY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES
. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR AND ON WHETHER STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE. IF
THE STORMS TEND BE LINEAR...THEN WIND DAMAGE COULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
THE SCENARIO DEFINITELY LOOKS APPROPRIATE FOR AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK.

FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GA AND SC COAST...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL FORECASTS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THE SYSTEM SLOWER AND
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE WARM SECTOR OFF THE COAST
OF SC SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OFFSHORE.
FOR THIS REASON...THE LOW-END PROBABILITIES EXTEND ACROSS SRN GA BUT
NOT INTO ERN SC.

..BROYLES.. 01/24/2011
wiki leaks is going to release the names of the rich usa tax cheaters. get the cells ready
So far, eight stations are reporting record highs in the past 24 hours, while 12 are reporting record lows. As has been the pattern for much of the winter, the record warm temps are mostly in the West, while the cool is in the central and eastern parts of the country. For a further example of that, note that in the past week, there have been 154 record lows or low maximums--almost all in the Midwest and East--and 349 record highs or high minimums.

There'll be a warm-up for most of the western and central parts of the country throughout the week, with possibly record highs in the upper Midwest and Great Plains, in advance of another Arctic blast next weekend which should bring some record lows.
Just be fore I head out, I had 62 outside my North windows this morning about 6:25.... not too bad for a winter morning.... lol

Ya'll have a good one... granted it's Monday, but it can't help being that.... :o)
A large amount of moisture and thunderstorms in the Eastern Atlantic for this time of year...
yaaay finally a slight risk of severe weather on a day 2 outlook for florida. ::crosses fingers::
For West Palm Beach...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Report says two suns possible as early as 2012


i read that article and had to have a field day against it. such crap is being touted as news and science regarding betelguese. while yes it will be a very spectacular event of the likes man hasnt seen in nearly 1k years. but to play t off as some sort of 2012 crap, or that it will be bright as the sun does nothing but irritate me..... i need counseling lol
Woke up this morning about 6AM with a temp of -2F here in Cambridge, MA. Can't remember the last time temps were below zero in the Boston area. Seems like it has been a long time, maybe 5-10 years? Thought the local news articles might say, but no joy. All I can find is "lowest temps in years".

Not a weather geek. Can anyone tell me if there is an easy way to research that question: "When was the last time Boston saw an official airport temp below zero?"
Complete Update





Tomorrow's Severe Weather threat should look something like this:

Tornado: 5% or 10% (Tornado threat impressively high)

Damaging Winds:
15% (Could go up to 30%)

Hail: 15%

*Judging by this statement, " THE SCENARIO DEFINITELY LOOKS APPROPRIATE FOR AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK."

It could get upgraded to a MDT risk.
Quoting EstherD:
Woke up this morning about 6AM with a temp of -2F here in Cambridge, MA. Can't remember the last time temps were below zero in the Boston area. Seems like it has been a long time, maybe 5-10 years? Thought the local news articles might say, but no joy. All I can find is "lowest temps in years".

Not a weather geek. Can anyone tell me if there is an easy way to research that question: "When was the last time Boston saw an official airport temp below zero?"

I heard the weather guy on MSNBC say at least twice that this was the first below zero day in Boston in six years.

http://hubbub.wbur.org/2011/01/24/monday-roundup-18

And here's a good search to try.
Quoting EstherD:
Woke up this morning about 6AM with a temp of -2F here in Cambridge, MA. Can't remember the last time temps were below zero in the Boston area. Seems like it has been a long time, maybe 5-10 years? Thought the local news articles might say, but no joy. All I can find is "lowest temps in years".

Not a weather geek. Can anyone tell me if there is an easy way to research that question: "When was the last time Boston saw an official airport temp below zero?"
Go to the top of the blog, type your city of choice. There is an almanac and weather history link there...:)
Speaking of which: Boston's low this morning was -2. Meanwhile, the Russian city of Murmansk--the largest city within the Arctic Circle--only dropped to 6 above zero.

http://www.boston.com/news/source/2011/01/boston_colder_t.html
Quoting EstherD:
Woke up this morning about 6AM with a temp of -2F here in Cambridge, MA. Can't remember the last time temps were below zero in the Boston area. Seems like it has been a long time, maybe 5-10 years? Thought the local news articles might say, but no joy. All I can find is "lowest temps in years".

Not a weather geek. Can anyone tell me if there is an easy way to research that question: "When was the last time Boston saw an official airport temp below zero?"


This cold air was brought to you by Global Warming.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


The most notable thing that shows is the change in the PDO from its warm phase in the 1980s and 90s to the cool phase since about 2000, thus the reduced SLR in the eastern Pacific. That corresponds to a cooling trend in that same area:



But, the change hasn't had any impact on either SLR or temperatures, despite claims to the contrary (at the most, there is a slight slowing in the warming trend, as measured with a 10 year average, several years back, but the trend has resumed). Note too, that the Arctic has warmed by about 2 degrees in the past 20 years - and most of that warming has occurred in the past decade, with 2010 the warmest year by a good margin:



Interestingly, the mid-latitudes of the NH, the most populated part of the globe, shows no warming in the past decade (this is significant because of course most people extrapolate what they see out their window to the globe, regardless of whether that is actually correct).


Which is where the most man-made CO2 originates, so why isn't it warmer where the CO2 is?
Quoting Levi32:


Neither does the globe as a whole.



You're going to have to do better than that. Zoom in and GISS, UAH and RSS are all positive trends for the decade.
Quoting oracle28:


Which is where the most man-made CO2 originates, so why isn't it warmer where the CO2 is?

It's called "wind".
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's called "wind".


Ah, ok so CO2 is evenly distributed, due to wind.