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2011 now tied for 1st for the most EF-5 tornadoes in one year: 6

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:58 PM GMT on July 05, 2011

The National Weather Service completed damage surveys last month in Alabama on the massive April 25 - 27 tornado outbreak, and found evidence to upgrade another tornado from the outbreak to EF-5 status with winds in excess of 200 mph: the Rainsville, Alabama tornado of April 27, 2011. Damage included houses that were completely removed from foundations and debris scattered for about one mile, trees that were debarked, and a few mobile homes completely destroyed with debris strewn for about a mile downwind. EF-5 damage included a pickup truck that was thrown and torn into multiple pieces, and an 800 pound steel safe anchored to a foundation that was torn away, thrown 600 feet, and had its door ripped from its hinges. Twenty-six people died in the tornado.


Figure 1. The remains of a school bus that was blown across Highway 75 in Rainsville, Alabama during the EF-5 tornado of April 27, 2011. This bus was originally sitting in the parking lot adjacent to the building in the distance to the right. Image credit: National Weather Service.


Figure 2. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1974, with 77 of these tornadoes. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes, making any link to climate change for this year's terrible tornado season difficult to support. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)

Six EF-5 tornadoes have now been confirmed by the National Weather Service in 2011. This ties the year 1974 for most top-end tornadoes in one year. Here are the 2011 EF-5 tornadoes:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The April 27, 2011 Rainsville, Alabama tornado (26 killed, 34 mile path length.)

5) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (157 killed, 14 mile path length.)

6) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Video 1. The EF-5 tornado that hit Rainsville, Alabama on April 27, 2011 was caught on video as it was re-forming. Tornado formation videos are rare, and this video shows how dangerous it can be to wait until you see a tornado to take shelter. A powerful tornado can form right on top of you with only a few seconds warning.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss. The only model showing potential activity over the next seven days is the NOGAPS, with predicts that a low pressure system with tropical characteristics may form on Saturday off the coast of North Carolina, in association with a cold front pushing off the coast. If such a storm does form, it would move northeastwards out to sea, and likely not be a threat to land.

I'll be back with a new post Wednesday or Thursday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update.
Yet another EF-5...
Thanks Dr. Masters
Thank you Dr.Masters..Drought over for Florida soon..
Thanks for the update Doc, hope you had a good 4th!
Wow! That is a lot of destruction. What was so special about '74? How did it get so many storms?
MJO will be here for a couple of weeks..
Quoting SQUAWK:
Wow! That is a lot of destruction. What was so special about '74? How did it get so many storms?
The Super Outbreak of April 3 & 4 of that year. 148 recorded tornadoes..Good morning Squawk.
OK, here is one for the research geeks. I noticed that 2005 (Katrina) had few top end tornadoes. Is there an inverse correlation between top end tornadoes and top end hurricanes? Or maybe number of hurricanes?
Quoting SQUAWK:
Wow! That is a lot of destruction. What was so special about '74? How did it get so many storms?
The weather channel listed it in their Top 5 Weather Events in the Unitied States.
Thanks Jeff...
Thanks Dr. Masters! Great post. Can't believe that there has been 6 EF 5 tornadoes this year, were in for one heck of a hurricane season if the pattern keeps up.
7. What is the largest known outbreak of tropical cyclone tornadoes?

2004's Hurricane Ivan caused an outbreak of 117 tornadoes - with the bulk of the tornadoes on 17 September - which developed over a 3 day period in the United States, including 37 in Virginia, 25 in Georgia, 18 in Florida, 9 in Pennsylvania, 8 in Alabama, 7 in South Carolina, 4 in both Maryland and North Carolina, 3 in West Virginia, and 2 in Maryland. There were 26 tornadoes reported on 15 September, 32 tornadoes on 16 September, 57 tornadoes on 17 September, and 2 tornadoes (in Maryland) on 18 September. At least 8 people were killed and 17 injured by the tornadoes.

The previous record was during Hurricane Beulah, which spawned a reported 115 tornadoes in southeast Texas during the first several days after its landfall in September 1967 (Orton 1970). These outbreaks of tornadoes from Ivan and Beulah represent two of the largest tornado outbreaks of any kind in the U. S. tornado climatology. It is difficult to predict which tropical cyclones will produce large tornado outbreaks, although there is some indication that the likelihood of a major outbreak increases as TC size and intensity increase.
Quoting SQUAWK:
Wow! That is a lot of destruction. What was so special about '74? How did it get so many storms?


At a guess, '74 had a strong La Nina.

This year also had a La Nina (though not as strong as that year). 1999 also was (Oklahoma outbreak).

La Nina supposedly has an impact on the tornado season.

Not the only impact, but still.

--

According to this link and the paper abstract within, La Nina makes tornado season worse.
Thanks DRM. I didn't realize until I read the caption that that was a school bus. Wow! Sometimes a drought doesn't seem so bad for extreme weather.
Thanks Dr. Masters!



Thank You Dr. and enjoy the break until later in the week. Don't know the stats related to Hurricanes and Tornadoes except for the increased threat in the NE quadrant......When Andrew hit Florida in 92 (and subsequently upgraded to a Cat 5 after damage surveys) there was speculation as to possible imbeded tornadoes within the hurricane to account for some of the damage patterns but I am not sure if they went back to research the doppler data and I know that the doppler "bubble" from the NHC was blown off their roof at some point during Andrew (different location than the present site of NHC further South but in a hardened structure).
Sounds like a lovely place: Rainsville. Though it seems a more fitting name for Seattle or Portland.

24 hour rainfall..
Quoting hydrus:
Thank you Dr.Masters..Drought over for Florida soon..
But not for the Florida Panhandle!
I 've a hard time to imagine the forces at work when pulling these steal constructs apart.
The importance of the weather satellite

As Stephen Stromberg pointed out in his June 30 PostPartisan [“Don’t gut the Weather Service”], allowing funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) to fall victim to political debate will negatively affect weather forecasting abilities.

What he did not mention were the far-reaching consequences of such a scenario. The satellite’s data will continue to help military planners deploy troops; emergency managers fight wildfires and respond to other disasters; and farmers to plan for optimum planting. He also did not mention that this penny-wise, pound-foolish budgeting approach doesn’t just stop with JPSS funding. Results from cuts to science funding could also limit our ability to assess water quality and mitigate the impacts of natural disasters.

We need to reduce the national debt, but it would be a mistake to do that by sacrificing programs that protect public safety and national security and support global competitiveness. Christine W. McEntee, Washington WP
Quoting gulfbreeze:
But not for the Florida Panhandle!
True. You might see some rain later this week though..
Good morning all
I know the day is still young, but this is the quietest severe weather map I've seen in a long time...

Quoting WaterWitch11:
Good morning all
Greetings..
Quoting WaterWitch11:
Good morning all

As they say down here in S.Fla hola
Looks like things will be interesting for the NC coast this weekend..the GFS is picking up on the Nogaps storm in the latest GFS run.
Quoting ncstorm:
Looks like things will be interesting for the NC coast this weekend..the GFS is picking up on the Nogaps storm in the latest GFS run.


Link Please
39. JRRP
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Dr. Masters!




nice
Link
Quoting mcluvincane:


Link Please


Link
Quoting mcluvincane:


Link Please
Here ya go...Link
Quoting MrMixon:
I know the day is still young, but this is the quietest severe weather map I've seen in a long time...<BR>


To be the 5th of July, to have less than 40 comments in 2-1/2 hours. This is one of the slowest days on the blog I've seen...evah
I think everything is clear here shown :

Quoting Painkiller97:
I think everything is clear here shown :

Pretty stiff wind over the Turks and Caicos Islands..
The blog is really quiet today...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The blog is really quiet today...
That should change soon.
Quoting tkeith:


To be the 5th of July, to have less than 40 comments in 2-1/2 hours. This is one of the slowest days on the blog I've seen...evah


It's the calm, before the storm.;)
Need a tropical tidbit fix
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


It's the calm, before the storm.;)


Why is the potato dressed up? It's not Halloween!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why is the potato dressed up? It's not Halloween!


It's my anti-troll uniform. Don't have to worry about trolls today...they all burnt their fingers playing with illegal fireworks last night....:^)
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
The importance of the weather satellite

As Stephen Stromberg pointed out in his June 30 PostPartisan [“Don’t gut the Weather Service”], allowing funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) to fall victim to political debate will negatively affect weather forecasting abilities.

What he did not mention were the far-reaching consequences of such a scenario. The satellite’s data will continue to help military planners deploy troops; emergency managers fight wildfires and respond to other disasters; and farmers to plan for optimum planting. He also did not mention that this penny-wise, pound-foolish budgeting approach doesn’t just stop with JPSS funding. Results from cuts to science funding could also limit our ability to assess water quality and mitigate the impacts of natural disasters.

We need to reduce the national debt, but it would be a mistake to do that by sacrificing programs that protect public safety and national security and support global competitiveness. Christine W. McEntee, Washington WP
How about privatizing some of it? Flight Service went from government run to a contract with Martin and saved billions over ten years and it works much better than it used to work. We have a bunch of private weather services that I would bet would love to bid on such a deal.
does anybody wanna do a tropics chat? its quiet on the blogs so ill be in the tropics chat.
Quoting NRAamy:
It's the calm, before the storm.;)

correction: before the STORMTOP....

;)
..speaking of illegal fireworks....how was your 4th Amy? ;^)
Thinking we will get wet today in SWFL...nice.
Wind Shear across the entire Atlantic basin has dropped significantly over the past couple of days, and should continue to do so, as we go through the typical July pattern shift and the "real" start of the hurricane season.

Quoting ncstorm:


DMIN killed the blob. :(
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wind Shear across the entire Atlantic basin has dropped significantly over the past couple of days, and should continue to do so, as we go through the typical July pattern shift and the "real" start of the hurricane season.




shhhhhh dont wake up the Atlantic basin or you could get a lot more then you wish for went it sleep a little longer
Quoting TaylorSelseth:


DMIN killed the blob. :(
(let's get it going again)....Is there some spin in that blob east of Puerto Rico?....I see a low level circulation.....shear is falling in that area...(that ought to do it!)
:)
MIMIC shows some spin over the S.E. Bahamas...
Quoting Buhdog:
Thinking we will get wet today in SWFL...nice.

Actually looks like we'll get a break today... However, tomorrow should be the start of a few very wet afternoons
Since the tropics are quiet could I please request that some rain be sent to NW Florida. I've had 1/8" of rain since late April and we're cooking. Wetland areas that I've never seen dry up have dried up with the lack of Spring rains and now the heat of Summer. I'm afraid the well for my lawn pump is going to dry up if we don't get rain soon, this has been a crazy weather year!
Little southern country rock, and dog days of summer in the south

Link
Quoting 69Viking:
Since the tropics are quiet could I please request that some rain be sent to NW Florida. I've had 1/8" of rain since late April and we're cooking. Wetland areas that I've never seen dry up have dried up with the lack of Spring rains and now the heat of Summer. I'm afraid the well for my lawn pump is going to dry up if we don't get rain soon, this has been a crazy weather year!
If the tropical wave moves further west than predicted, we may see some development in the extreme eastern gulf. Met from Accu-Weather believes it is a possibility.
12Z CMC..





That needs to be deciphered R.E..:)
Who wants to take a ride down Copperhead Rd?
well if shear is around 5 to 10 knots in the MDR then maybe a wave could develop in the carribean as conditions will be favorable
Quoting TropicalTracker2011:
well if shear is around 5 to 10 knots in the MDR then maybe a wave could develop in the carribean as conditions will be favorable
There is a strong wave that is forecast to move into the Caribbean from the Atlantic. They say its worth watching.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Who wants to take a ride down Copperhead Rd?
Thats better.
We are 19.2% done hurricane season.
So far it is 1-0-0.
We are on pace for 5 Tropical Storms, 0 Hurricanes, and 0 Majors.

Pretty cool java program I had to create for class haha.
Since it is quiet, here is a look at all the tropical systems that formed in July in the Atlantic basin over the past 16 years, or the start of the active period.

1995: Barry (TS), Chantal (TS), Dean (TS), Erin (C2)
1996: Bertha (C3), Cesar (C1)
1997: Bill (C1), Claudette (TS), Danny (C1), Five (TD)
1998: Alex (TS)
1999: Two (TD)
2000: No tropical systems recorded
2001: Two (TD)
2002: Arthur (TS)
2003: Claudette (C1), Danny (C1), Six (TD), Seven (TD)
2004: Alex (C3)
2005: Cindy (C1), Dennis (C4), Emily (C5), Franklin (TS), Gert (TS)
2006: Unnamed (TS), Beryl (TS)
2007: Chantal (TS)
2008: Bertha (C3), Cristobal (TS), Dolly (C2)
2009: No tropical systems recorded
2010: Two (TD), Bonnie (TS)
2011: No tropical systems recorded as of July 5

Tropical depressions: 6
Tropical Storms: 13
Hurricanes: 8
Major hurricanes: 5
Does the program take into account the early part of the season is less likely to have storms? It could factor in the area under the typical storm year, already covered by the 19.2%, which is not likely to be 19.2 % of the average storm year curve.

May the 4th be with you.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Since it is quiet, here is a look at all the tropical systems that formed in July in the Atlantic basin over the past 16 years, or the start of the active period.

1995: Barry (TS), Chantal (TS), Dean (TS), Erin (C2)
1996: Bertha (C3), Cesar (C1)
1997: Bill (C1), Claudette (TS), Danny (C1), Five (TD)
1998: Alex (TS)
1999: Two (TD)
2000: No tropical systems recorded
2001: Two (TD)
2002: Arthur (TS)
2003: Claudette (C1), Danny (C1), Six (TD), Seven (TD)
2004: Alex (C3)
2005: Cindy (C1), Dennis (C4), Emily (C5), Franklin (TS), Gert (TS)
2006: Unnamed (TS), Beryl (TS)
2007: Chantal (TS)
2008: Bertha (C3), Cristobal (TS), Dolly (C2)
2009: No tropical systems recorded
2010: Two (TD), Bonnie (TS)
2011: No tropical systems recorded as of July 5

Tropical depressions: 6
Tropical Storms: 13
Hurricanes: 8
Major hurricanes: 5


remember bertha and then we had fran..two storms back to back in NC
Quoting biff4ugo:
Does the program take into account the early part of the season is less likely to have storms? It could factor in the area under the typical storm year, already covered by the 19.2%, which is not likely to be 19.2 % of the average storm year curve.


nope not yet, that's the next task actually. Trying to figure out the algorithm for that right now. All it asks now is for date, number of TS, H, and MH.
...ALL TIME MONTHLY PRECIPITATION RECORD SET AT PIERRE SD...
AN ALL TIME RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL OF 8.31 INCHES FELL IN PIERRE
SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS ALL
TIME RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 7.66 INCHES SET BACK IN JUNE
2008.The extreme rain events, continue to tear-up small out of
the way places most of us never heard of , the last 24 hrs have been
very busy.
I've noticed a lot more reports of the rain blowing up
the sewer systems because hydrostatic pressure increases so fast in the
system. This also blows sewage back up the pipes.
" The National
Weather Service says as much as 4.75 inches of rain was reported in the Aberdeen area, leading to street flooding north of the city.
Both cities had a rainy June, with precipitation in Aberdeen 1.2 inches above normal and rainfall in Pierre nearly 5 inches above the norm.
5 inches at ROANOKE RAPIDS, N.C. yesterday
8 to 10 inches overnight Northwest of Alexandria, La.

http://coloradobob1.newsvine.com/_ news/2011/07/05/7018441-the-extreme-rain-events-of -july-2011?last=1309884699&threadId=3166418&am p;am p;sp=0&pc=25#last_1
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Since it is quiet, here is a look at all the tropical systems that formed in July in the Atlantic basin over the past 16 years, or the start of the active period.

1995: Barry (TS), Chantal (TS), Dean (TS), Erin (C2)
1996: Bertha (C3), Cesar (C1)
1997: Bill (C1), Claudette (TS), Danny (C1), Five (TD)
1998: Alex (TS)
1999: Two (TD)
2000: No tropical systems recorded
2001: Two (TD)
2002: Arthur (TS)
2003: Claudette (C1), Danny (C1), Six (TD), Seven (TD)
2004: Alex (C3)
2005: Cindy (C1), Dennis (C4), Emily (C5), Franklin (TS), Gert (TS)
2006: Unnamed (TS), Beryl (TS)
2007: Chantal (TS)
2008: Bertha (C3), Cristobal (TS), Dolly (C2)
2009: No tropical systems recorded
2010: Two (TD), Bonnie (TS)
2011: No tropical systems recorded as of July 5

Tropical depressions: 6
Tropical Storms: 13
Hurricanes: 8
Major hurricanes: 5


Before then, July seemed to be the focus of Atlantic inactivity. Especially in the 80s. 1985 and 1989 were the only years in the 80s that saw tropical storms form in July. 1992 and 1993 also featured what I call 'gap' Julys, where activity is recorded in June but seems to skip July. Most recent example is 2001.
accu really think this tw will move west into the e. gulf ? i dont odds would say most likely stay east of the bahamas
83. SLU
The 12z NOGAPS shows a strong wave entering the Caribbean in 4 days.
Climate Prediction Center update from today has nino 3.4 at +0.1C,and that is at warm neutral territory. Is up from 0.0C that was last week.

Link
Quoting hydrus:
There is a strong wave that is forecast to move into the Caribbean from the Atlantic. They say its worth watching.
must be the bare naked one around 40- 45 w
12Z NOGAPS

Well it wouldnt let me post the images..so here is the link

Link







Quoting SLU:
The 12z NOGAPS shows a strong wave entering the Caribbean in 4 days.
the link is not working at this time!!
Quoting SLU:
The 12z NOGAPS shows a strong wave entering the Caribbean in 4 days.
Wuzup Slu...NOGAPS has a rep for being aggressive with the tropics, but there it is..
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:


maybe this is why the nogaps is so insistent on developing the system... look at that low wind shear
what is that on the east coast!!
Quoting serialteg:


maybe this is why the nogaps is so insistent on developing the system... look at that low wind shear
It is my honest opinion that things are going to get active real soon...And the paths of most of the storms will not be curving out to sea like last year...I hope I am wrong of course.
Plymouth, Penn. July 3, 2011.
The more than 3 inches of rain caused
the Coal Street Creek to overflow its banks, bringing a river of mud,
rocks and other debris down the road, ripping up sidewalks and the
pavement, damaging houses and cars and leaving Plymouth in a state of
emergency.

http://www.timesleader.com/news/Assessing_th e_damage_07-04-2011.html
...
This one really tore the town up.


Joe Mazur, Plymouth's borough manager, lives at 108-114
Coal St. He watched the flooding from his front porch. He couldn't
believe his eyes.
"The rain came down so hard and so fast," he said Monday. "All that
runoff from the mountain just went into the creek and washed everything
away with it."

http://www.timesleader.com/news/Devastation_astou nds__some_Plymouth_residents_07-04-2011.html
Quoting hydrus:
It is my honest opinion that things are going to get active real soon...And the paths of most of the storms will not be curving out to sea like last year...I hope I am wrong of course.


I hope you are wrong also, but I have a feeling, you're right. The Atlantic basin should pick-up in activity very soon, probably as we head into the middle/latter part of July. After that, we won't get a break until the end of hurricane season. The pattern for storm tracks this season is very concerning, and we will likely see a lot of storms make landfall on the Eastern Coast (NC/SC especially) and the Gulf Coast.








Eddie in the GOMEX coupled with probable storm tracks for this year is NOT good at all. I think we will break both the TC landfall and MH landfall streak this season.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Plymouth, Penn. July 3, 2011.
The more than 3 inches of rain caused
the Coal Street Creek to overflow its banks, bringing a river of mud,
rocks and other debris down the road, ripping up sidewalks and the
pavement, damaging houses and cars and leaving Plymouth in a state of
emergency.

http://www.timesleader.com/news/Assessing_th e_damage_07-04-2011.html
...
This one really tore the town up.


Joe Mazur, Plymouth's borough manager, lives at 108-114
Coal St. He watched the flooding from his front porch. He couldn't
believe his eyes.
"The rain came down so hard and so fast," he said Monday. "All that
runoff from the mountain just went into the creek and washed everything
away with it."

http://www.timesleader.com/news/Devastation_astou nds__some_Plymouth_residents_07-04-2011.html


These extreme rain events are like none many of us have ever seen. And any storm now can and will put 2 to 5 inches on your head in a heart beat.
It rained 1.5 inches in 10 mins. last week in Fla.
Here's the recorded rainfall for Largo:

Monday, June 27

* The area around East Bay Drive and Fulton received 1.37 inches of rain in 10 minutes at midday.
* Whitney Road and 58th Street received more than nine-tenths of an inch in less than an hour.
* Between 3:45 and 3:55 p.m., Starkey Road and Ulmerton received 1.5 inches.
* At 12:30 p.m., 150th and 66th streets received just under an inch of rainfall in less than 10 minutes.

June 23-27

* The area around 66th Street and Ulmerton Road received more than 12.5 inches of rain, most of it during heavy downpours.
* Fulton and East Bay received more than 10 inches.
* Walsingham and 131st Street received more than 8 inches.

http://largo.patch.com/articles/heaviest-rainfall -hits-largo
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


nope not yet, that's the next task actually. Trying to figure out the algorithm for that right now. All it asks now is for date, number of TS, H, and MH.


I'm Pretty sure you will have to use some sort of integration adding in all past statitics
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I hope you are wrong also, but I have a feeling, you're right. The Atlantic basin should pick-up in activity very soon, probably as we head into the middle/latter part of July. After that, we won't get a break until the end of hurricane season. The pattern for storm tracks this season is very concerning, and we will likely see a lot of storms make landfall on the Eastern Coast (NC/SC especially) and the Gulf Coast.
You posted my thoughts quite literally. Even after the MJO leaves our part of the world,the tropical waves moving off the African coast will be energetic enough to overcome subsidence. Almost all of them will make it to the Caribbean Basin. ...You know the rest.
Quoting NRAamy:
unbelievable...
nice spin next to 95 west!!
Just , , and Ignore.
108. SLU
Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup Slu...NOGAPS has a rep for being aggressive with the tropics, but there it is..


Yep .. let's see what happens
109. LBAR
The air here in Charleston, SC certainly FEELS more tropical than it has in a very long time. We need some good rain storms here!!
Tropical air here everyday, and still doesn't rain
114. LBAR
Hmmmm...from the Charleston, SC NWS...

HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY RIGHT AS SOON AS
WEDNESDAY CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A TROPICAL
WAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NAM
AND GEM SEEM VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW FROM
THIS WAVE UP THE EAST COAST...REACHING THE NORTHERN SC COASTLINE BY
FRIDAY. THE GEM IS FASTER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE SYSTEM. MEAN
WHILE...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE...KEEPING AN
OPEN TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTH FL
THURSDAY AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH EACH OF THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITHIN THEMSELVES...PREFER TO STAY WITH
THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH
AT THIS POINT.

Houston/Galveston region bout to blow, calm to light winds, heat, humid, just waiting for the Lousiana activity to initiate the switch.
Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 50%.


Best chance of rain we have seen in quite a while.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 20N42W
TO 11N47W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW
LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE IS PRECEDING A BROAD
AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS LIMITED DUE TO A DRY SLOT WRAPPING
AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVING WNW AT
ABOUT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE N CENTRAL AND NW
CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. EARLIER
ASCAT DATA INDICATED A SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING EAST OF THE
CURRENT WAVE AXIS...AND THEREFORE...THE WAVE IS NOW REANALYZED
FROM 22N81W TO 15N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
118. srada
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 50%.


Best chance of rain we have seen in quite a while.


Im working from home and we getting hammered now..I really hope its helping towards the wildfires..
always something to watch of recent the tw at 45 should fire up as if moves west towards the windwards the one behind it might be the one to really watch as another character said it has a bad history over africa
Tropical moisture is inbound... I can't wait.

I might even put some sod down in the backyard.

Actually that might hex the whole thing. :-s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSJdYvSEaBw&NR=1 all the phish fans huddled up during a monster storm in atlanta braves fans no doubt
Quoting FLdewey:
Tropical moisture is inbound... I can't wait.

I might even put some sod down in the backyard.

Actually that might hex the whole thing. :-s

You can't have my luck. I laid down seed, it rained one day and then dried up until last week. The area I seeded is all weeds, no grass!
Quoting FLdewey:
Tropical moisture is inbound... I can't wait.

I might even put some sod down in the backyard.

Actually that might hex the whole thing. :-s
I would at least wash my car first...
Quoting PakaSurvivor:

You can't have my luck. I laid down seed, it rained one day and then dried up until last week. The area I seeded is all weeds, no grass!

LOL... yeah that's about how successful I've been so far.

Not holding my breath. :-s
There is a typo in the headline "most most".
looks like some surface convergnce,possible low forming over se bahamas,some eastbound clouds apparent on vis
Hahaha @tkeith - that's a good way to lock it.
Quoting FLdewey:
Tropical moisture is inbound... I can't wait.

I might even put some sod down in the backyard.

Actually that might hex the whole thing. :-s


If you put the sod down,please wash the car afterwards would ya?
ssw winds should really get the afternoon storms going for florida we've had plenty here e.cen. fl. as the result terrible outbreak on mosquitos small ones that cling to the cloths as you walk in. biters too. its seems worst around 6-7 in the morning.
Quoting srada:


Im working from home and we getting hammered now..I really hope its helping towards the wildfires..


Ah, so you're under that slow-moving thunderstorm just to my south with heavy rains, gusty winds, and frequent lightning? I wish we have a storm like that today.
Despite the long-range models not really showing any development in the tropics over the next two weeks, the pattern still exists that could allow it. The ECMWF ensembles by Day 10 show the 5880m 500mb isohypse lying all the way up across the north gulf coast and the Bahamas. Normally, at this time of year, that line is down in the southern Caribbean, as the subtropical ridge is still in the process of lifting north for late summer. This subtropical mid-level ridge generally provides subsidence that limits early-season tropical activity. When the ridge temporarily lifts so far north early on in the hurricane season, as the ECMWF shows, the areas south of the ridge axis must be watched carefully for any kind of tropical mischief, as those areas are generally associated with more upward motion and convection.

Quoting DestinJeff:
I have been absent for awhile. Have we established answers to the following burning questions:

1. Which cable news channel has the most bias?

2. Has the rainy season started in Florida?



Yes :O)
I'm not sure the conservative Christian base is here today Jeff... das blog is quiet.
Quoting DestinJeff:
I have been absent for awhile. Have we established answers to the following burning questions:

1. Which cable news channel has the most bias?

2. Has the rainy season started in Florida?



1.) Not sure

2.) Yes




Global Tropical Hazards Assessment

Excerpt:

Enhanced chances for above-average rainfall are likely to continue through Week-2 across Central America and Mexico with the highest chances of threatening heavy rainfall from Guatemala to Nicaragua. A northward shift in the ITCZ is expected to support rainfall totals that would be 3-5 inches above average for Week-2. Associated with this northward shift of convective activity is an enhanced threat of tropical cyclone formation across the Bay of Campeche, Gulf of Honduras, and along the southern coast of Mexico.

Quoting DestinJeff:
I have been absent for awhile. Have we established answers to the following burning questions:

1. Which cable news channel has the most bias?

2. Has the rainy season started in Florida?




1) MSNBC is the most biased. But I heard that on Fox News so not sure we can trust that.

2) It has, except in the panhandle where it hasn't. But I heard that on MSNBC so....
Quoting DestinJeff:
I have been absent for awhile. Have we established answers to the following burning questions:

1. Which cable news channel has the most bias?

2. Has the rainy season started in Florida?


1: All
2: Not All

you're welcome
Quoting Levi32:
Despite the long-range models not really showing any development in the tropics over the next two weeks, the pattern still exists that could allow it. The ECMWF ensembles by Day 10 show the 5880m 500mb isohypse lying all the way up across the north gulf coast and the Bahamas. Normally, at this time of year, that line is down in the southern Caribbean, as the tropical ridge is still in the process of lifting north for late summer. This tropical mid-level ridge generally provides subsidence that limits early-season tropical activity. When the ridge temporarily lifts so far north early on in the hurricane season, as the ECMWF shows, the areas south of the ridge axis must be watched carefully for any kind of tropical mischief, as those areas are generally associated with more upward motion and convection.



Levi, how many named storms do you believe will form during this month? Wind Shear across the Atlantic basin has dropped significantly over the past few days, and should continue to drop across the entire basin as we head into next week.
Look what you started Jeff.

Go to your corner. ---->
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Levi, how many named storms do you believe will form during this month? Wind Shear across the Atlantic basin has dropped significantly over the past few days, and should continue to drop across the entire basin as we head into next week.


I would say most likely one, possibly two if we're lucky. The MJO will be leaving us for the latter portion of the month, likely inhibiting significant bouts of activity until August.
Quoting twincomanche:
How about privatizing some of it? Flight Service went from government run to a contract with Martin and saved billions over ten years and it works much better than it used to work. We have a bunch of private weather services that I would bet would love to bid on such a deal.
Only if we get to tax the profits. Otherwise one more subsidize the wealthy scheme.
Quoting DestinJeff:
I have been absent for awhile. Have we established answers to the following burning questions:

1. Which cable news channel has the most bias?

2. Has the rainy season started in Florida?



1. All of them / None of them ;)
2. Some parts of Florida but no area in the panhandle :(
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why is the potato dressed up? It's not Halloween!
Hey this is a PG blog. No Naked Avitars!!
132. Levi32 3:23 PM EDT on July 05, 2011

I agree with your observation, current placement-wise, but you might want to use the common name for clarity for some of the folks on here who are still trying to figure things out; you are referring to the subtropical ridge across the northen gulf vs. the subequatorial ridge. And yes, you normally do not see it this elevated until a bit later in July.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Only if we get to tax the profits. Otherwise one more subsidize the wealthy scheme.
Why in heavens name would we not be able to tax the profits? We do every other private business>
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
132. Levi32 3:23 PM EDT on July 05, 2011

I agree with your observation, current placement-wise, but you might want to use the common name for clarity for some of the folks on here who are still trying to figure things out; you are referring to the subtropical ridge across the northen gulf vs. the subequatorial ridge. And yes, you normally do not see it this elevated until a bit later in July.


I believe I referred to it as the tropical ridge, which is what it is, also known as the sub-equatorial ridge. It is not the subtropical ridge. In this situation, the two essentially combine over the southern United States.

*Edit: I realized these terms are generally used to speak of the ~200mb level. "Subtropical ridge" would be the correct term here. Thanks for pointing it out.
There is obviously a cow and a flat rock here at the bridge...getting heavy rains.
We tax everything in site,you mean just tax more!Taxes and death only two sure things in life!
Quoting Levi32:


I would say most likely one, possibly two if we're lucky. The MJO will be leaving us for the latter portion of the month, likely inhibiting significant bouts of activity until August.

Hey Levi Are you going to have a tropical tidbit for today and can the mjo pattern change in 2 weeks and if a storm developed say in the western carribean say by day 6, what wud the steering currents be by then?
Quoting Levi32:
Despite the long-range models not really showing any development in the tropics over the next two weeks, the pattern still exists that could allow it. The ECMWF ensembles by Day 10 show the 5880m 500mb isohypse lying all the way up across the north gulf coast and the Bahamas. Normally, at this time of year, that line is down in the southern Caribbean, as the tropical ridge is still in the process of lifting north for late summer. This tropical mid-level ridge generally provides subsidence that limits early-season tropical activity. When the ridge temporarily lifts so far north early on in the hurricane season, as the ECMWF shows, the areas south of the ridge axis must be watched carefully for any kind of tropical mischief, as those areas are generally associated with more upward motion and convection.

wow that jet steam is way to the north
Quoting twincomanche:
We have a bunch of private weather services that I would bet would love to bid on such a deal.

Yes. And then buy out the competition. And then monopolize the industry. And then create a cable-provider type system with shoddy service, horrendous customer relations, inferior products, slow/no innovation, and a rate structure that is decipherable only by expertly-trained cryptologists.

There are some things for which the private sector is well-suited. There are others, however, that are far too important to leave solely to the profit-first/profit-only crowd. Weather forecasting is one of them.
Quoting DestinJeff:
I have been absent for awhile. Have we established answers to the following burning questions:

1. Which cable news channel has the most bias?

2. Has the rainy season started in Florida?



What is this thing you speak of called rain?
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yes. And then buy out the competition. And then monopolize the industry. And then create a cable-provider type system with shoddy service, horrendous customer relations, inferior products, slow/no innovation, and a rate structure that is decipherable only by expertly-trained cryptologists.

There are some things for which the private sector is well-suited. There are others, however, that are far too important to leave solely to the profit-first/profit-only crowd. Weather forecasting is one of them.
TWC comes to mind....
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yes. And then buy out the competition. And then monopolize the industry. And then create a cable-provider type system with shoddy service, horrendous customer relations, inferior products, slow/no innovation, and a rate structure that is decipherable only by expertly-trained cryptologists.

There are some things for which the private sector is well-suited. There are others, however, that are far too important to leave solely to the profit-first/profit-only crowd. Weather forecasting is one of them.


This sounds exactly like my cable provider, COX Cable!
Quoting Levi32:


I believe I referred to it as the tropical ridge, which is what it is, also known as the sub-equatorial ridge. It is not the subtropical ridge. In this situation, the two essentially combine over the southern United States.

*Edit: I realized these terms are generally used to speak of the ~200mb level. "Subtropical ridge" would be the correct term here. Thanks for pointing it out.


No prob..........I always throught they were treated as two sepearate entitiies (with the TUTT in the middle) during the heart of the Atlantic Season so you are technically correct; it is a "tropical" ridge but referred to in most of the related literature as the sub-tropical ridge............ :)
sorry didn't get it the first time
not worthy of me or the blog
Quoting twincomanche:
You are truly a educated idiot.


And here I was thinking the fireworks took place LAST night!

<<---- Gets popcorn and a Coke Zero.
I think activity will pick up in the first week to second week of August.I thinkit's then that we will see our B,and C storms.My opinion only.
Quoting TampaTom:


And here I was thinking the fireworks took place LAST night!

<<---- Gets popcorn and a Coke Zero.
Not weather related but questioning minds want to know. Coke Zero. What's the point?
Quoting DestinJeff:
I have been absent for awhile. Have we established answers to the following burning questions:

1. Which cable news channel has the most bias?

2. Has the rainy season started in Florida?




Of course the rain season in Florida has started, assuming you haven't had much rain yet doesn't mean that much. Overall much of Florida has had massive amounts of rain in the last week and a half. The panhandle hasn't had much, but their climate is slightly different so that doesn't really count. The panhandle has its own separate climate zone really. The panhandle usually gets less thunderstorm activity during the rain season period that occurs in Central and South Florida, but Central and South Florida have a much more pronounced drying on average in the winter and spring. Of course these are averages.

Central and especially South Florida is closer to what is known as tropical wet and dry climate. We get significant seasonal periods of drought as well as significant seasonal periods of torrential rain. The panhandle is more of a subtropical climate, because there is on average, less of a seasonal change in rainfall coverage, and a longer and colder winter compared to Central and South Florida, but it is still quite short and mild relatively speaking.

Down here in Central Florida, we have had plenty of soaking rain over most of the area. With much more to come.

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Not weather related but questioning minds want to know. Coke Zero. What's the point?


It's like walking on a treadmill. You are walking, but you aren't seeing anything all that rewarding!
Quoting Jedkins01:



Of course the rain season in Florida has started, assuming you haven't had much rain yet doesn't mean that much. Overall much of Florida has had massive amounts of rain in the last week and a half. The panhandle hasn't had much, but their climate is slightly different so that doesn't really count. The panhandle has its own separate climate zone really.

Down here in Central Florida, we have had plenty of soaking rain over most of the area. With much more to come.



Gee, another individual telling us in the panhandle we aren't a part of Florida! ;)
Quoting 69Viking:


This sounds exactly like my cable provider, COX Cable!


Be careful of using profanity on this blog. You may get banned! :)
Q: How many named storms will July feature in the Atlantic basin?

A. One (Bret)

B. Two (Bret, Cindy)
C. Three (Bret, Cindy, Don)
D. Four (Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily)
E. Zero named storms or more than four storms.

My pick, as usual, is in bold.
There does appear to be an area of low pressure forming directly east of Cat Island.


176. DVG
Quoting PakaSurvivor:


Gee, another individual telling us in the panhandle we aren't a part of Florida! ;)


Us folks in Jax know we really aint in Fla, weeze jes in S Ga.

For sure it's been smellin like S Ga for a few weeks now.
Quoting PakaSurvivor:


Gee, another individual telling us in the panhandle we aren't a part of Florida! ;)


hahaha no don't worry I didn't say that! I just said the climate is a little different than
it is in Central and South Florida, heck the state capital and my favorite school is in the panhandle! lol
Shear is a killer though and will likely only enhance rain chances for the peninsula.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
There does appear to be an area of low pressure forming directly east of Cat Island.




Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Shear is a killer though and will likely only enhance rain chances for the peninsula.


That's really one of the only regions with a lot of Wind shear.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's really one of the only regions with a lot of Wind shear.

keep going far north there is less wind shear there!!
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
keep going far north there is less wind shear there!!


But its not going far north, the tropical wave is headed toward South Florida.
B. Two named storms, Bret in mid-July. Cindy in Late July.

Im going with what i said in June. 2 named storms and didnt you say 3 in june teddy? :)
Quoting TropicalTracker2011:

Im going with what i said in June. 2 named storms and didnt you say 3 in june teddy? :)


People can change their predictions as they want, especially since we are in a quiet period. I had forecast three named storms in the Atlantic as well, but I changed it.
Quoting Levi32:

Hey, If anything formed in the western carribean say in 5 days would the ridge still be protecting the US or would there be a weakness?
All I was trying to say in my previous post was that perhaps, just perhaps, someone could provide a good portion of our weather service as good as and perhaps at a lower cost to us taxpayers than our so so efficient government. It did not call for being ridiculed for being a idea that should not at least be considered. Call me crazy but I just don't see a lot of models of efficiency at any level of public works. Before I get yelled at, I am not attacking the people in the public sector, I am just saying the institutions are not working very well.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


People can change their predictions as they want, especially since we are in a quiet period. I had forecast three named storms in the Atlantic as well, but I changed it.

All im saying is that you have to go with your gut and i knew we would have a quiet period therefore i went with 2 but yeah people can change their mind :)
Quoting TropicalTracker2011:

Im going with what i said in June. 2 named storms and didnt you say 3 in june teddy? :)


I figured that we'd be seeing a named storm in the 1st half of July. Models aren't showing that likely happening.
no tropical storm or hurricanes hit the east coast anytime soon i am talking about the next three weeks!!
Quoting TropicalTracker2011:

Hey, If anything formed in the western carribean say in 5 days would the ridge still be protecting the US or would there be a weakness?


The models currently forecast the ridge to return over the southern U.S. in 4-5 days.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: How many named storms will July feature in the Atlantic basin?

A. One (Bret)

B. Two (Bret, Cindy)
C. Three (Bret, Cindy, Don)
D. Four (Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily)
E. Zero named storms or more than four storms.

My pick, as usual, is in bold.

The Answer is Blowin' in the Wind
Quoting Levi32:


The models currently forecast the ridge to return over the southern U.S. in 4-5 days.

What about say 10 days? i really want to see the Texas ridge shift north and allow a tropical system to hit the US Gulf Coast
Quoting PakaSurvivor:


Be careful of using profanity on this blog. You may get banned! :)


LOL, I take it your an unfortunate customer also! So where in the Panhandle are you? I'm in the Fort Walton Beach area.
look at this showing big cold flont moving to the east coast and kick everything out to sea on july 15 2011 the east coast is save for three weeks or more
Quoting twincomanche:
All I was trying to say in my previous post was that perhaps, just perhaps, someone could provide a good portion of our weather service as good as and perhaps at a lower cost to us taxpayers than our so so efficient government. It did not call for being ridiculed for being a idea that should not at least be considered. Call me crazy but I just don't see a lot of models of efficiency at any level of public works. Before I get yelled at, I am not attacking the people in the public sector, I am just saying the institutions are not working very well.
Yep, I'm ready to entrust it all to the the folks who brought us our booming economy and I'm wearing hip waders, floaties and carrying an umbrella to keep from being overcome by all this trickle down.
I have a question for all of you.

What if hurricanes were never named? Would several of you not be interested in them as you are today?
Things look pretty quiet for the next two weeks. We have all the upward motion we could ask for, but those two huge troughs are really killing anything that tries to get going. July is supposed to be somewhat inactive, so there's not much really to say. By the beginning of August we should start to see a change.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Yep, I'm ready to entrust it all to the the folks who brought us our booming economy and I'm wearing hip waders, floaties and carrying an umbrella to keep from being overcome by all this trickle down.
I am not sure where you are coming from, but I bring you such models of efficiencies as the Pentagon, the Postal Service, Amtrak, the Agriculture department, Medicare, Medicaid. Need I go on?
Quoting wxgeek723:
I have a question for all of you.

What if hurricanes were never named? Would several of you not be interested in them as you are today?


I don't think the interest would wane, but keeping track of them would definitely be more cumbersome.
Link

Heavy rain Downtown, Grand Cayman
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's really one of the only regions with a lot of Wind shear.

uhm idk about you but shear is pretty high over the basin. Entire MDR region has high shear. The whole periphery of the Caribbean has high shear. Southern gulf has high shear and over the rest of the gulf there's a lot of subsidence associated with the upper level convergence from an ULL. Caribbean is the only moderately favorable region in the basin as far as the upper atmosphere is concerned. However even the Caribbean could be looking better, the eastern half has some moderate shear and is notorious for being a poor region of development thanks to low level divergence which also promotes subsidence.

Really the only hospitable environment is the W Caribbean
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Things look pretty quiet for the next two weeks. We have all the upward motion we could ask for, but those two huge troughs are really killing anything that tries to get going. July is supposed to be somewhat inactive, so there's not much really to say. By the beginning of August we should start to see a change.


This is a lot like last July, which proved to everyone that June-July means little to hurricane season once peak comes.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
There does appear to be an area of low pressure forming directly east of Cat Island.


weak banding showing


*Click image to enlarge*
July does look like it won't be that active of a month, but as Teddy said, that proves little about the meat of the season.
Quoting twincomanche:
I am not sure where you are coming from, but I bring you such models of efficiencies as the Pentagon, the Postal Service, Amtrak, the Agriculture department, Medicare, Medicaid. Need I go on?
I'll see those, raise you Wall Street and throw in current national Lorenz curve.
Quoting TampaTom:


It's like walking on a treadmill. You are walking, but you aren't seeing anything all that rewarding!
That depends on who is on the treadmill in front of the one you are on at the gym :)
*REPOST*

Since it is quiet, here is a look at all the tropical systems that formed in July in the Atlantic basin over the past 16 years, or the start of the active period.

1995
: Barry (TS), Chantal (TS), Dean (TS), Erin (C2)
1996: Bertha (C3), Cesar (C1)
1997: Bill (C1), Claudette (TS), Danny (C1), Five (TD)
1998: Alex (TS)
1999: Two (TD)
2000: No tropical systems recorded
2001: Two (TD)
2002: Arthur (TS)
2003: Claudette (C1), Danny (C1), Six (TD), Seven (TD)
2004: Alex (C3)
2005: Cindy (C1), Dennis (C4), Emily (C5), Franklin (TS), Gert (TS)
2006: Unnamed (TS), Beryl (TS)
2007: Chantal (TS)
2008: Bertha (C3), Cristobal (TS), Dolly (C2)
2009: No tropical systems recorded
2010: Two (TD), Bonnie (TS)
2011: No tropical systems recorded as of July 5

Tropical depressions: 6
Tropical Storms: 13
Hurricanes: 8
Major hurricanes: 5
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Heavy rain Downtown, Grand Cayman
No kidding.Just got home and already 1.1 inches recorded since it started less than an hour ago. Looks like this could be a 3 to 4 inch event based upon the satellite imagery.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I'll see those, raise you Wall Street and throw in current national Lorenz curve.
There, that is not ridicule that is economic theory, which we obviously disagree on so I am going to fold as this is not an economics blog. You and yours are obviously winning right now, but I love this land and it's people as I can tell you do, so when it all comes crashing to the ground I will not be dancing in the street saying "I told you so." I'll be at your side trying to pick up the pieces and we'll go on from there. Peace
Quoting Levi32:
July does look like it won't be that active of a month, but as Teddy said, that proves little about the meat of the season.
yeah i wouldn't expect much for the next week or two.

perhaps by the end of the month things can get kicking

a new OLR anomaly forecast is out



still calling for lots of convection in our area in mid/late July, despite dynamic MJO models looking like they want to go ahead and take the MJO out of our region by that time.

here's the GFS

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I'll see those, raise you Wall Street and throw in current national Lorenz curve.
What has that got to do with weather services?
Quoting twincomanche:
I am not sure where you are coming from, but I bring you such models of efficiencies as the Pentagon, the Postal Service, Amtrak, the Agriculture department, Medicare, Medicaid. Need I go on?

I agree. I'll see those, and I'll raise you such models of capitalist stewardship as BP, Union Carbide, Goldman Sachs, WorldCom, Enron.

Big Government is not the answer to all our problems, as shown by your examples. But neither is Big Business, as shown by mine.

(EDIT: I see SVFF beat me to it. Kudos, but I'll let mine stand.)
Quoting Neapolitan:

I agree. I'll see those, and I'll raise you such models of capitalist stewardship as BP, Union Carbide, Goldman Sachs, WorldCom, Enron.

Big Government is not the answer to all our problems, as shown by your examples. But neither is Big Business, as shown by mine.
In no way was I advocating for big business. In what way you are reading that into my post escapes me, but it gives you people who don't like our system to bash things instead of addressing the possibility that I might have a good idea.
220. JRRP
Quoting twincomanche:
All I was trying to say in my previous post was that perhaps, just perhaps, someone could provide a good portion of our weather service as good as and perhaps at a lower cost to us taxpayers than our so so efficient government. It did not call for being ridiculed for being a idea that should not at least be considered. Call me crazy but I just don't see a lot of models of efficiency at any level of public works. Before I get yelled at, I am not attacking the people in the public sector, I am just saying the institutions are not working very well.
Its all good twin. He attacks every viewpoint that doesn't support his position.
Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah i wouldn't expect much for the next week or two.

perhaps by the end of the month things can get kicking

a new OLR anomaly forecast is out



still calling for lots of convection in our area in mid/late July, despite dynamic MJO models looking like they want to go ahead and take the MJO out of our region by that time.

here's the GFS



I recently realized that the ASR forecast is actually statistical, not dynamic. I would expect the GFS to be more correct, as the MJO should be leaving our area of the world by the latter portion of the month, hence why I see it being a fairly quiet month overall, though we may still get a storm out of it.
223. srada
Why are there a lot of comments about models not predicting a storm in the next two weeks. It is not a strong storm but the initalization is there for NC, even Dr. Masters mention it

GFS


CMC


NoGaps


even the ECMWF hints at something..am I missing something?
Quoting kmanislander:
No kidding.Just got home and already 1.1 inches recorded since it started less than an hour ago. Looks like this could be a 3 to 4 inch event based upon the satellite imagery.
LOL. East End has had .19
Quoting srada:
Why are there a lot of comments about models not predicting a storm in the next two weeks. It is not a strong storm but the initalization is there for NC, even Dr. Masters mention it

GFS


CMC


NoGaps


even the ECMWF hints at something..am I missing something?


That's probably a cold core low, like some of the low pressure areas we've seen so far this year. If you pay attention to satellite every once in a while, you'll catch them, especially after a front moves offshore.
226. DDR
Hello all
after 24 hours of sunshine the rains have returned with 1/4 inch of rain today.
Gfs is showing that wave@ 60w really giving us a good soaking tonight.

228. srada
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's probably a cold core low, like some of the low pressure areas we've seen so far this year. If you pay attention to satellite every once in a while, you'll catch them, especially after a front moves offshore.


but dont cold core storms turn into subtropical storms?
Quoting srada:


but dont cold core storms turn into subtropical storms?


They could, but conditions in that area are not favorable to allow such.
Miami NWS Discussion

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUED TO SHOW PLENTY OF
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EAST OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
AT THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
WEST OVER NRN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES AND A
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS.
OUTSIDE OF SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES...THE NUMERICAL MODELS
REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24HRS THEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHER RAINFALL PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES THE PWAT STEADILY
INCREASING THROUGH THIS TIME WITH A MAXIMUM VALUE ALMOST REACHING
THE 2.5 INCH MARK THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. PROVIDED THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY NOTED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS COMBINED WITH THE RECENT
TRENDS UPSTREAM...THE RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WERE SLIGHTLY
ADJUSTED UP ABOVE GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH.
Quoting wxgeek723:
I have a question for all of you.

What if hurricanes were never named? Would several of you not be interested in them as you are today?


The No-Name Storm of 1991(Wikipedia)

The origins of the Perfect Storm were from a cold front that exited the east coast of the United States. On October 28, the front spawned an extratropical low to the east of Nova Scotia. Around that time, a ridge extended from the Appalachian Mountains northeastward to Greenland, with a strong high pressure center over eastern Canada. The blocking ridge forced the extratropical low to track toward the southeast and later to the west. Hurricane Grace was swept aloft by its cold front into the warm conveyor belt circulation of the deep cyclone on October 29. The cyclone significantly strengthened as a result of the temperature contrast between the cold air to the northwest and the warmth and humidity from the remnants of Hurricane Grace. The low pressure system continued deepening as it drifted towards the United States,[2] an unusual retrograde motion for a nor'easter that began a set of meteorological circumstances occurring only once every 50 to 100 years.[3]

While situated about 390 mi (630 km) south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, the storm attained its peak intensity with winds of up to 70 mph (110 km/h).[2] The Halloween Nor'easter reached peak intensity at approximately 1200 UTC on October 30 with the lowest pressure being 972 millibars. The interaction between the extratropical storm and the high pressure system to its north created a significant pressure gradient, which created large waves and strong winds.[2] Along the southern New England coast, the gradient was 70 mbar (2.1 inHg).[4] A buoy located 264 mi (425 km) reported a wave height of 100.7 ft (30.7 m) on October 30. This became the highest recorded wave height on the Scotian Shelf, which is the oceanic shelf offshore Nova Scotia.[5] Offshore the United States, a NOAA located at 41.1N 66.6W reported maximum sustained winds of 56 mph (91 km/h) with gusts to 75 mph (120 km/h), and a significant wave height (average height of the highest waves) of 39 feet (12 m) near 1500 UTC on October 30. Another buoy, located at 40.5N 69.5W, reported maximum sustained winds of 61 mph with gusts to 72 mph (117 km/h) and a significant wave height of 31 ft (9 m) near 0000 UTC on October 31.[2]
The tropical storm making landfall west of Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Upon peaking in intensity, the nor'easter turned southward and gradually weakened; by November 1, its pressure had risen to 998 mb. The low moved over warm waters of the Gulf Stream, where bands of convection around the center began to organize.[6] At around this time, the system attained subtropical characteristics. On November 1, while the storm was executing a counter-clockwise loop, a tropical cyclone had been identified at the center of the larger low.[7] Although these conditions are rare, Hurricane Karl during 1980 also formed within a larger non-tropical weather system.[8]

By around 1400 UTC on November 1, an eye feature was forming, and the tropical cyclone reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h);[9] these estimates, combined with reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit flight into the storm and confirmation that a warm-core center was present, indicated that the system had become a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The hurricane accelerated towards the northeast and quickly weakened back into a tropical storm. It made landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia, at 1400 UTC on November 2 with sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h). While the storm was approaching the coast, weather radars depicted curved rainbands on the western side of the system.[7] After crossing over Prince Edward Island,[5] it fully dissipated late on November 4.[7]
Levi-

You mentioned in your July 3rd video of the United States weather pattern for the month of June showing the ridge in the east, blocking in Greenland, and troughs in the western US and Northern Atlantic. You also mentioned that this was similar to the analogs of the seasons that had high hurricane impacts to the United States coastline.

With that said, what's the analog for July? What should we look at for the month of July? What are the signs we don't want to see for July in regards to a high impact year?

Thanks for any or all of the feedback.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's probably a cold core low, like some of the low pressure areas we've seen so far this year. If you pay attention to satellite every once in a while, you'll catch them, especially after a front moves offshore.
its a big cold front move off the east coast around july 13 to 16 july!! temp only around low 70s for highs in the northeast on july 13 to 16 of july!! cold front will go down to FL
its a big cold front move off the east coast around july 13 to 16 july!! temp only around low 70s for highs in the northeast on july 13 to 16 of july!! cold front will go down to FL
238. JLPR2
Quoting srada:
Why are there a lot of comments about models not predicting a storm in the next two weeks. It is not a strong storm but the initalization is there for NC, even Dr. Masters mention it

GFS


CMC


NoGaps


even the ECMWF hints at something..am I missing something?


What worries me even more is that huge solid High. :\
here we go!!
Quoting twincomanche:
In no way was I advocating for big business. In what way you are reading that into my post escapes me, but it gives you people who don't like our system to bash things instead of addressing the possibility that I might have a good idea.

I'm not bashing business; as I said earlier, there are definitely parts of society where business does things in a more cost-effective and efficient manner than government ever could. But certain things should not be for-profit, as empirical evidence has proved, for the profit motive is strong and all-consuming, and can cause more problems than it solves. For profit schools and colleges; for-profit transportation systems; for-profit prisons and militaries and police forces: these are all ideas that looked good on paper, but market dynamics always said otherwise.

I'd say weather forecasting fits right into the same bucket.
Eastern East Pacific going up!! maybe at 8pm we see go up to 20%!!
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

going up!!! watch out here!!
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
Eastern East Pacific going up!! maybe at 8pm we see go up to 20%!!
Well me personally I really don't track storms in the pacific.So I really don't care....Most of them thankfully avoids land and go about their business.

Quoting JLPR2:


What worries me even more is that huge solid High. :\
It is to be expected in neutral years.
Quoting weatherman566:
Levi-

You mentioned in your July 3rd video of the United States weather pattern for the month of June showing the ridge in the east, blocking in Greenland, and troughs in the western US and Northern Atlantic. You also mentioned that this was similar to the analogs of the seasons that had high hurricane impacts to the United States coastline.

With that said, what's the analog for July? What should we look at for the month of July? What are the signs we don't want to see for July in regards to a high impact year?

Thanks for any or all of the feedback.


In short, and as I mentioned briefly in the video, the ridge that typically extends from New England down to Texas in June begins to lift north towards the northern U.S. and southern Canada. By the end of July, More neutral or slightly below normal height anomalies generally develop along the gulf coast and SE US coast. Also, the MSLP pattern in June during high-U.S.-impact years focuses the strongest low pressure anomalies in the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean, while July sees an increase in MSLP in that region and the anomalously low pressures shift southward into an elongated belt across the deep tropical Atlantic.

I should also note that by "analogs" in the video I was referring to the tracking of analogous behavior between this year and years that have seen many U.S. hurricane landfalls. The years I used were not all a part of the specific analog package for this season, though that package exhibits above-average tropical cyclone impact on the U.S. as well.
Quoting wxgeek723:
I have a question for all of you.

What if hurricanes were never named? Would several of you not be interested in them as you are today?

Traditionally the Island Of Puerto Rico have name hurricanes for centuries, the hurricane will take the name of the Saint of the day the Church celebrates in its Almanac,; for example: San Narciso,Oct.25,1825, San Felipe I 1873, San Ciriaco 1898, San Felipe II,Sept.13,1928,San Nicolas,1931, San Ciprian 1932, and so on the last hurricane that we name was Santa Clara,that the NHC name Betsy, August 13, 1956. For some people that keep the tradition, hurricane George that hit the island Sept. 21,1998, his name would be San Roque.
Why does an article about melting pole ice violate the community standards?

See post 234.
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards?

Was this article

Global Warming Worse Than Thought, Warm Water the Culprit
Link
Quoting Levi32:


In short, and as I mentioned briefly in the video, the ridge that typically extends from New England down to Texas in June begins to lift north towards the northern U.S. and southern Canada. By the end of July, More neutral or slightly below normal height anomalies generally develop along the gulf coast and SE US coast. Also, the MSLP pattern in June during high-U.S.-impact years focuses the strongest low pressure anomalies in the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean, while July sees an increase in MSLP in that region and the anomalously low pressures shift southward into an elongated belt across the deep tropical Atlantic.

I should also note that by "analogs" in the video I was referring to the tracking of analogous behavior between this year and years that have seen many U.S. hurricane landfalls. The years I used were not all a part of the specific analog package for this season, though that package exhibits above-average tropical cyclone impact on the U.S. as well.

Levi, Will The Texas High Pressure Move at all in July? I really dont want to see mexico get all the hits and i really want that Texas ridge to move north. Do you see that happening anytime soon?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well me personally I really don't track storms in the pacific.So I really don't care....Most of them thankfully avoids land and go about their business.


DON'T CARE - Thats Not Nice for us Cent Pac Folks.
You know there is a state out here.

Not often Hit But Iniki was pretty devastating to Kauai....
Quoting NoNamePub:


DON'T CARE - Thats Not Nice for us Cent Pac Folks.
You know there is a state out here.

Not often Hit But Iniki was pretty devastating to Kauai....
Notice though in my post I stated that MOST storms head out into open waters.Now it is heartbreaking to see a storm affect land.And that's in any place....
Does any one have a link to a conversion chart MB into feet example planes flyin 700 MB would equal what as far as altitude "feet"? thanks
Quoting stormhank:
Does any one have a link to a conversion chart MB into feet example planes flyin 700 MB would equal what as far as altitude "feet"? thanks


You'll have to do a bit of extrapolating to calculate certain heights that aren't listed there (i.e. 650 mb), but here you go.
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052338
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNA
258. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:

Traditionally the Island Of Puerto Rico have name hurricanes for centuries, the hurricane will take the name of the Saint of the day the Church celebrates in its Almanac,; for example: San Narciso,Oct.25,1825, San Felipe I 1873, San Ciriaco 1898, San Felipe II,Sept.13,1928,San Nicolas,1931, San Ciprian 1932, and so on the last hurricane that we name was Santa Clara,that the NHC name Betsy, August 13, 1956. For some people that keep the tradition, hurricane George that hit the island Sept. 21,1998, his name would be San Roque.


Yeah, without that it would be rather difficult to identify each storm, although we did have two San Felipe's so we could confuse those. XD

Also I see the error a lot, it isn't George, it's Georges.
Quoting Tazmanian:
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052338
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNA


Brenna and Brennan sitting in a tree?
260. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:

It is to be expected in neutral years.


Why is that?
it seems more likely than not florida is in for a decent rain event. there is rain to the north moving south rain to the east moving west rain to the south moving north and rain to the sw moving ne get the umbrellas ready plus bug spray
Quoting TropicalTracker2011:

Levi, Will The Texas High Pressure Move at all in July? I really dont want to see mexico get all the hits and i really want that Texas ridge to move north. Do you see that happening anytime soon?


Why are you so fixated on wanting the ridge to move to allow a tropical cyclone to hit the Gulf coast? You're making it hard to decipher whether or not you want the ridge to move so rain can come into the Gulf Coast or you want the ridge to move so a TC can come and cause damage on the USA.
Quoting NoNamePub:


DON'T CARE - Thats Not Nice for us Cent Pac Folks.
You know there is a state out here.

Not often Hit But Iniki was pretty devastating to Kauai....
its rare though
Quoting washingtonian115:
Notice though in my post I stated that MOST storms head out into open waters.Now it is heartbreaking to see a storm affect land.And that's in any place....


Tracking storms solely because they hit land is somewhat disturbing imo, I enjoy the meteorological aspect of storms more then the damage they cause. So anything EPAC can be just as exciting as the ATL if you look at it from that perspective.
267. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why are you so fixated on wanting the ridge to move to allow a tropical cyclone to hit the Gulf coast? You're making it hard to decipher whether or not you want the ridge to move so rain can come into the Gulf Coast or you want the ridge to move so a TC can come and cause damage on the USA.


Hmm my thinking is that everyone should distribute the amount of hits equally. But we don't control that.
Yes JlPR, San Felipe I, and San Felipe II. Georges, I think it was a French name, not sure.
Sarkozy announces one billion euros aid to drought-hit farmers

President Nicolas Sarkozy promised a billion euros of aid to French farmers struggling with drought caused by the hottest spring since 1900. The worst drought since 1970 is pushing farmers into debt unless they slaughter their livestock.

Livestock producers have had to buy hay to feed their animals and some feed is to be imported. Link
270. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Yes JlPR, San Felipe I, and San Felipe II. Georges, I think it was a French name, not sure.


Yeah, I heard the correct pronunciation once and my expression was exactly like this: O.o

jaja XD
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, without that it would be rather difficult to identify each storm, although we did have two San Felipe's so we could confuse those. XD

Also I see the error a lot, it isn't George, it's Georges.

lol, I have an atlas that says "Hortensia" instead of Hortense.
China told to reduce food production or face 'dire' water levels

Food must be imported and water use tightly regulated to protect dwindling supply, a leading groundwater expert has warned

Link
I would like to say that the damage fron the severe drought this year far exceeds the damage of any tropical storm hitting the Gulf Coast.


Quoting JLPR2:


Hmm my thinking is that everyone should distribute the amount of hits equally. But we don't control that.
275. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

lol, I have an atlas that says "Hortensia" instead of Hortense.


Well I guess that's just someone being original or one language exclusive. XD
Dats kinda weird as the drought hasnt displaced 250,000 Humans like 2005 did.

But thats just my opine
278. JLPR2
Quoting portcharlotte:
I would like to say that the damage fron the severe drought this year far exceeds the damage of any tropical storm hitting the Gulf Coast.




Yeah, you guys at the south side of the US aren't faring so well, I wish I could send a few tropical waves that way.
I was referring to a tropical storm scenario not a katrina

Quoting Patrap:
Dats kinda weird as the drought hasnt displaced 250,000 Humans like 2005 did.

But thats just my opine
Short tropical update, but mostly a space shuttle tribute update, includes the 'high flight' poem.
Atlantic is dead asleep - GO ATLANTIS! 7/5/11
Well then T.S. Allison in 2001 must be a non player then?

Tropical Storm Allison was a tropical storm that devastated southeast Texas in June of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season. The first storm of the season, Allison lasted unusually long for a June storm, remaining tropical or subtropical for 15 days.


The storm developed from a tropical wave in the northern Gulf of Mexico on June 4, 2001, and struck the upper Texas coast shortly thereafter. It drifted northward through the state, turned back to the south, and re-entered the Gulf of Mexico. The storm continued to the east-northeast, made landfall on Louisiana, then moved across the southeast United States and Mid-Atlantic. Allison was the first storm since Tropical Storm Frances in 1998 to strike the northern Texas coastline.

The storm dropped heavy rainfall along its path, peaking at over 40 inches (1,000 mm) in Texas. The worst flooding occurred in Houston, where most of Allison's damage occurred: 30,000 became homeless after the storm flooded over 70,000 houses and destroyed 2,744 homes. Downtown Houston was inundated with flooding, causing severe damage to hospitals and businesses. Twenty-three people died in Texas. Throughout its entire path, Allison caused $5.5 billion ($6.7 billion 2008 USD) in damage and 41 deaths. Aside from Texas, the places worst hit were Louisiana and southeastern Pennsylvania.

Following the storm, President George W. Bush designated 75 counties along Allison's path as disaster areas (the first time he had to do so), which enabled the citizens affected to apply for aid. Allison is the only tropical storm to have its name retired without ever having reached hurricane strength.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

Okay Pat...you win...You have overwhelming evidence that I overlooked...I guess we all know that tropical storms are going to be part of our climate and have been since the beginning of the atmosphere. Unfortunately some are going to affect lives...




Quoting Patrap:
Well then T.S. Allison in 2001 must be a non player then?

Tropical Storm Allison was a tropical storm that devastated southeast Texas in June of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season. The first storm of the season, Allison lasted unusually long for a June storm, remaining tropical or subtropical for 15 days.


The storm developed from a tropical wave in the northern Gulf of Mexico on June 4, 2001, and struck the upper Texas coast shortly thereafter. It drifted northward through the state, turned back to the south, and re-entered the Gulf of Mexico. The storm continued to the east-northeast, made landfall on Louisiana, then moved across the southeast United States and Mid-Atlantic. Allison was the first storm since Tropical Storm Frances in 1998 to strike the northern Texas coastline.

The storm dropped heavy rainfall along its path, peaking at over 40 inches (1,000 mm) in Texas. The worst flooding occurred in Houston, where most of Allison's damage occurred: 30,000 became homeless after the storm flooded over 70,000 houses and destroyed 2,744 homes. Downtown Houston was inundated with flooding, causing severe damage to hospitals and businesses. Twenty-three people died in Texas. Throughout its entire path, Allison caused $5.5 billion ($6.7 billion 2008 USD) in damage and 41 deaths. Aside from Texas, the places worst hit were Louisiana and southeastern Pennsylvania.

Following the storm, President George W. Bush designated 75 counties along Allison's path as disaster areas (the first time he had to do so), which enabled the citizens affected to apply for aid. Allison is the only tropical storm to have its name retired without ever having reached hurricane strength.

Quoting twincomanche:
I respectfully disagree. Profits do not become all consuming except for a few. If certain metrics are set then the product requirements will be met. Most of the government contracts are cost plus or a moving target which is doomed to failure. The FSS change to a private contractor spelled out clearly what was required and it has been met. The air traffic controllers predicted disaster when certain airport towers were privatized. It hasn't happened. There are many examples of fire departments, garbage and so on that have been successful with proper direction. Private education is much more successful than the public system. I still think it can be done and who would argue with better service at a lower cost.
With the weather service, as brought up previously, and with many other government agencies, much of the actual work is done by contractors in just that situation. The requirements are spelled out clearly, there are clear metrics along the way, and much of the final product is completely under the ownership of us taxpayers.

I assure you that the NWS web page, supercomputing, modeling, observational data collection, etc. is all done by contractors with much of the science and technical direction from civil servants. And all of it is done completely incognito. In fact, as a contractor, I even had a NASA email address and phone extension. Even lists of employees of agencies will have contractors, but no indication of such.

Most of the time, the law of lowest bidder doesn't end in catastrophe with proper definition of deliverables, metrics, supervision, and checks and balances.
Quoting JLPR2:


Why is that?


Past neutral years tended to have an anomalous equatorial extension of the Bermuda high. Thus, we can safely expect that this year.
Ref. to Patrap, post #281. Worst flooding I've ever seen in the Houston area in the past 37 years. I'm up on the north side close to the big airport near Kingwood. At the height of the rainfall, I was measuring almost 4 inches an hour.
Quoting portcharlotte:
Okay Pat...you win...You have overwhelming evidence that I overlooked...I guess we all know that tropical storms are going to be part of our climate and have been since the beginning of the atmosphere. Unfortunately some are going to affect lives...






Hurricanes suck. Flooding tropical storms suck. But no mistaking it so does this drought. Kind of damned if you do damned if you don't. Specially here, since Texas doesn't have a rainy season to end these droughts. It apparently is only something tropical that ends them. At least as far as I have been able to find out. People not directly on the coast may argue that a drought is worse than a hurricane. Just a matter of perspective I guess. Me personally I've experienced bigger losses from hurricanes than droughts. But then my livelihood and home have not been threatened or taken away by drought or fire. Yet.
laST week tropical storm cool down the water in the west GOM IN blue colors

Hopefully the drought will be broken in all the affected States in due time.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


*Click image to enlarge*
In my mind "Vince" will always be "that weird 2005 system that developed off Spain".

If Katia hits anywhere in the US as a major hurricane, then the NHC better stop using variations of "Kathrine" for K storms.
Quoting Patrap:

Hopefully the drought will be broken in all the affected States in due time.




Governor Perry Calls For Prayer To End Texas Drought


Texas Governor Rick Perry has declared three days of prayer in response to the drought that is impacting Texas and helping to cause severe wildfires. Link

Let's start praying!
293. txjac
Looks like we might get some rain?

... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 845 PM CDT
for Harris... Waller... Washington... Montgomery and Grimes counties...

At 806 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a severe thunderstorm capable of producing nickel size
hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was
located near Prairie View or near the intersection of FM 1736 and
Laneview Road... moving northwest at 25 mph.

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Rolling Hills lake area... Navasota and Washington

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Strong winds may knock down trees and power lines or damage
buildings. Take cover now!

This storm may produce large damaging hail... resulting in extensive
property damage or serious injury. Avoid windows and take cover now!


Lat... Lon 3035 9614 3034 9614 3037 9614 3041 9607
3013 9576 2995 9588 3002 9612 3004 9612
3006 9616 3006 9622 3008 9625 3028 9630
time... Mot... loc 0110z 118deg 25kt 3017 9603

294. BA
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


I don't think the interest would wane, but keeping track of them would definitely be more cumbersome.


just name them YYNN, so 1101, 1102, 1103, then next year 1201, 1202, 1203 :)
Are climate change models too conservative?

As we've reported recently, climate scientists are continuing to develop and refine climate change models in order to predict the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. One aspect of these models that hasn't been explicitly tested is their ability to capture rapid, irreversible changes to the climate system. The author of a commentary in this week's edition of Nature Geoscience argues that current climate models (such as those used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] reports) fail to simulate abrupt changes we've seen in the past, and therefore may be unable to predict similar events in the future.

Abrupt changes are those where the response (such as an increase or decrease in average global temperatures) occurs much more rapidly than do changes in the conditions that triggered it (increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, influx of water into the ocean, etc.). Obviously, in order to plan mitigation or adaptation strategies, we need to be able to predict the occurrence and severity of such events.

The author of the piece is Paul Valdes, a climatologist at the University of Bristol, who considered four past cases of abrupt change that current models are unable to simulate. In the first two, the models can't capture the starting conditions—incorrect initial conditions mean inaccurate simulated results (garbage in, garbage out). In the second two cases, simulations require unrealistically large perturbations to cause the changes that actually occurred in the past. All four cases seem to indicate that current models are too stable compared to the relatively sensitive climate system of the real world.

The first event considered, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), which we've reported on recently, was a rapid warming event (5°C in the tropics and up to 20°C in higher latitudes, all within thousands of years) that occurred 55.8 million years ago. The PETM was likely caused by a release of methane from underwater hydrates that led to a massive carbon injection to the atmosphere (similar in magnitude to current events, though at a much slower rate). It's the subject of much study, but current models cannot simulate the warm climate that immediately preceded the climate change.

The second event discussed was the relatively recent (9,000-5,500 years ago) transition of the Sahara from wet and vegetated location into a desert, which occurred over a period of decades to centuries. As with the PETM, the models cannot predict the starting conditions—in this case the greening that occurred prior to desertification—and therefore cannot predict the abrupt transition.

The third case was a series of 25 rapid temperature increases (up to 8°C over a few decades) that occurred over the past 120,000 years during the Dansgaard-Oeschger climate cycles. Each started from a globally cold state and, though not completely understood, was likely caused by an influx of freshwater into the North Atlantic. Simulations in this case are able to predict abrupt change based on realistic starting conditions, but they require an injection of water that lasts thousands of years longer than anyone considers realistic.

The final case considered was the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) between 120,000 and 12,000 years ago. The AMOC is driven by density differences between warm water that flows north above colder water flowing south. The collapse, which took place over the course of six cycles known as Heinrich events, was caused by large amounts of freshwater from glaciers interrupting the normal circulation. The AMOC plays an important role in the global climate system, and its interruption led to rapid cooling in the Northern Hemisphere (10°C over a matter of years).

As with the simulations of the Dansgaard-Oescher warming events, climate models are able to predict an AMOC collapse, but only with an influx of 1 sverdrup (Sv, or 1 million m3/s) to the North Atlantic Ocean—that's 10 times higher than what's estimated to have hit the Atlantic during the last actual Heinrich event. It is particularly important to be able to predict this phenomenon, because a circulation collapse due to glacier meltwater is considered a possible effect of current warming.

Although climate models have been accused of being overly sensitive to changes in greenhouse gasses, it seems that in some cases, the models are too stable, requiring larger perturbations to cause the actual changes seen in the past. Because of this, the author cautions, the models underestimate the possibility of rapid events and therefore may give us a false sense of security. Link
This year the ice melt is below 2007 levels.
Climate inaction risks children's well-being

Leaving tomorrow's adults to solve the problem is no solution at all.

COST-OF-LIVING pressures seem to dominate our daily lives and it is not often easy to think beyond tomorrow. But imagine a future where these pressures are exacerbated and then take the time to consider that we could have done something about them.

Climate change, if allowed to continue, will have a dramatic and lasting impact on the lives of our children and grandchildren.

There is widespread scientific consensus that doing nothing will mean this century is characterised by higher temperatures, shifting rainfall systems, severe droughts and more fires and storms.
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As a result, it is largely accepted that food and water costs will further increase, while weather-related disasters will generate financial insecurity, social dislocation and loss of livelihoods.

These climate-induced changes will affect health and well-being, especially children's. Children living today will confront even greater health risks over their lifetime, with estimates showing a 30 to 100 per cent increase in their chance of suffering from illnesses such as asthma by 2050. Mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever; food and water-borne diseases; and diseases associated with air pollution and aeroallergens are expected to become more prevalent as our climate changes.

Recent research in Australia shows that young children are prone to overheating and that hot days can also increase the likelihood of fever or gastroenteritis. For every 1 degree increase in temperature there is a 3 to 8 per cent increase in diarrhoea-related disease, which is already one of the leading killers of children.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/climate-in action-risks-childrens-wellbeing-20110705-1h0mj.ht ml
299. SLU
The latest NOGAPS is very bullish on a strong system entering the Caribbean in 4 days and heading towards PR while deepening. Let's see if the other models latch on.


Why Hurricanes Are Named



Courtesy Of USA Today

Tropical storms and hurricanes are given names to avoid confusion when more than one storm is being followed at the same time. A storm is named when it reaches tropical storm strength with winds of 39 mph. A storm becomes a hurricane when its wind speed reaches 75 mph.

Separate sets of hurricane names are used in the central Pacific, eastern Pacific, and the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The World Meteorological Organization's Region 4 Hurricane Committee selects the names for Atlantic Basin storms. The names are English, Spanish and French - the languages spoken in the national Atlantic Basin storms hit. They alternate between male and female names. The group has selected six sets of names, which means each set of names is used again each six years.

Forecasters begin using names in 1950. In that year and in 1951, names were from the international phonetic alphabet in use at the time - Able, Baker, Charlie, etc. Female, English-language names were used beginning in 1953.

Alternating male and female names were first used to name Atlantic Basin hurricanes in 1979. This was also the first year that French and Spanish names, as well as English, were used. The first three male names used, Bob, David and Frederick have all been retired because they did tremendous damage. Frederick and David were retired because of the damage they did in 1979. Bob was retired after a hurricane by that name hit New England in 1991.

The first storm each year in the Atlantic Basin and in the eastern Pacific gets an 'A' name. But the year's first hurricane in the central Pacific from 140 degrees west longitude to the International Date Line and the first typhoon west of the Date Line get the next available name on the list, no matter what letter it begins with.

Quoting Patrap:
Well then T.S. Allison in 2001 must be a non player then?

Tropical Storm Allison was a tropical storm that devastated southeast Texas in June of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season. The first storm of the season, Allison lasted unusually long for a June storm, remaining tropical or subtropical for 15 days.


The storm developed from a tropical wave in the northern Gulf of Mexico on June 4, 2001, and struck the upper Texas coast shortly thereafter. It drifted northward through the state, turned back to the south, and re-entered the Gulf of Mexico. The storm continued to the east-northeast, made landfall on Louisiana, then moved across the southeast United States and Mid-Atlantic. Allison was the first storm since Tropical Storm Frances in 1998 to strike the northern Texas coastline.

The storm dropped heavy rainfall along its path, peaking at over 40 inches (1,000 mm) in Texas. The worst flooding occurred in Houston, where most of Allison's damage occurred: 30,000 became homeless after the storm flooded over 70,000 houses and destroyed 2,744 homes. Downtown Houston was inundated with flooding, causing severe damage to hospitals and businesses. Twenty-three people died in Texas. Throughout its entire path, Allison caused $5.5 billion ($6.7 billion 2008 USD) in damage and 41 deaths. Aside from Texas, the places worst hit were Louisiana and southeastern Pennsylvania.

Following the storm, President George W. Bush designated 75 counties along Allison's path as disaster areas (the first time he had to do so), which enabled the citizens affected to apply for aid. Allison is the only tropical storm to have its name retired without ever having reached hurricane strength.


Weird how Allison got retired as a Tropical Storm. That's something unique.
Quoting SLU:
The latest NOGAPS is very bullish on a strong system entering the Caribbean in 4 days and heading towards PR while deepening. Let's see if the other models latch on.


Not only does it form a storm hitting the NC coast but forms another one right after it turning back and hitting the NC coast again and then the PR storm is heading to NC too right after the second storm..did the NOGAPS and CMC switch places??
Quoting Levi32:


I recently realized that the ASR forecast is actually statistical, not dynamic. I would expect the GFS to be more correct, as the MJO should be leaving our area of the world by the latter portion of the month, hence why I see it being a fairly quiet month overall, though we may still get a storm out of it.
thanks

I was wondering how they made those maps. Now it all makes sense
Still can't get it through my head that a 10-year old girl was bitten at Topsail Beach here in SE NC while standing in three feet of water. I swim in this area all the time, but....TropicalAnalystwx13 doesn't think he'll be getting back in the water anymore. Officials think it was a bull shark, one of the most aggressive types of shark not only in this area, but in the world.

306. JLPR2
Quoting SLU:
The latest NOGAPS is very bullish on a strong system entering the Caribbean in 4 days and heading towards PR while deepening. Let's see if the other models latch on.


That looks unlikely, has the nogaps gotten an upgrade recently or is it overdue? XD

Area at the east edge of the image is the one the Ngps wants to spin into at least a weak TS
Quoting SLU:
The latest NOGAPS is very bullish on a strong system entering the Caribbean in 4 days and heading towards PR while deepening. Let's see if the other models latch on.


That's probably not going to come true, it's just making up tropical cyclones just as the CMC does. The wave that the model spins up into a hurricane is the far east wave.

Well, it's been a very tropical day in San Diego

Moisture from Arlene has really enhanced the SW monsoonal flow and given the mountains which stretch from N-S up and down the spine of California plenty of thunderstorms. Here in San Diego we haven't had any rain yet, but it's been a very nice and tropical day. Mid level clouds have kept us from getting too hot, but the humidity has made it feel like it's been pretty warm. To our east there are some nice thunderstorms currently blowing up thanks to daytime heating


Composite Radar (I don't use base reflectivity because the mountains)



Cloud Tops




maybe, just maybe, they can stay together long enough such that they're still raining by the time they reach the city as they push west.

Either way, I love this tropical weather! Warm, muggy, thunderstorms, it's the best...too bad it's so rare in San Diego
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Still can't get it through my head that a 10-year old girl was bitten at Topsail Beach here in SE NC while standing in three feet of water. I swim in this area all the time, but....TropicalAnalystwx13 doesn't think he'll be getting back in the water anymore. Officials think it was a bull shark, one of the most aggressive types of shark not only in this area, but in the world.


Great. That just reminded me why I don't like the ocean: Sharks. I enjoy the coast, but if there's a coral reef near by, I fear of sharks.
Evening all. Just got in from work after another long day w/ no internet access.... what's kickin'?

BTW, I saw some pretty spectacular lightning on the way home, but not raining so far.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Still can't get it through my head that a 10-year old girl was bitten at Topsail Beach here in SE NC while standing in three feet of water. I swim in this area all the time, but....TropicalAnalystwx13 doesn't think he'll be getting back in the water anymore. Officials think it was a bull shark, one of the most aggressive types of shark not only in this area, but in the world.



Cody, sharks don't discriminate by age or by how many feet of water you're in. A friend of mine filmed a shark in about the same height of water last week. I'm in Florida, we have a lot of sharks here, but I always go swimming at the beach.
312. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Great. That just reminded me why I don't like the ocean: Sharks. I enjoy the coast, but if there's a coral reef near by, I fear of sharks.


Saw a little one at like one feet of water at Palomino.

It was shark! shark! *Everyone out of the water*
It's gone! *Everyone back in the water*

LOL!
Quoting caneswatch:


Cody, sharks don't discriminate by age or by how many feet of water you're in. A friend of mine filmed a shark in about the same height of water last week. I'm in Florida, we have a lot of sharks here, and I always go swimming at the beach.


I know they don't.

Well, people say the odds of getting bit by a shark are lower than being in a train crash, getting hit by lightning, etc, but I don't think I will take my chances.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


Governor Perry Calls For Prayer To End Texas Drought


Texas Governor Rick Perry has declared three days of prayer in response to the drought that is impacting Texas and helping to cause severe wildfires. Link

Let's start praying!



Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, I saw some pretty spectacular lightning on the way home, but not raining so far.
Yet you didn't take pictures? You tease. :P
Quoting JLPR2:


Saw a little one at like one feet of water at Palomino.

It was shark! shark! *Everyone out of the water*
It's gone! *Everyone back in the water*

LOL!

lol Hilarious!
@Caneswatch:

One of the most common type of shark here is the Sand Shark and the Bull Shark. There in Florida, Bull Sharks aren't really common, while they are here. They are one of the most aggressive types of sharks, which is what really gets me about getting in the water. I have no problem with the Sand Shark...I think.
Quoting JLPR2:


Saw a little one at like one feet of water at Palomino.

It was shark! shark! *Everyone out of the water*
It's gone! *Everyone back in the water*

LOL!


lol, I've seen baby shark before. I bet they bite hard though. Can you find out for me? XD
Evening Baha,

I can tell you what's "not kickin".... (fortunately)

Kick-'em-Jenny
(also: Kick'em Jenny or Mt. Kick-'Em-Jenny) is an active submarine volcano or seamount on the Caribbean Sea floor, located 8 km (5 mi) north of the island of Grenada and about 8 km (5 mi) west of Ronde Island in the Grenadines. Kick-'em-Jenny rises 1,300 m (4,265 ft) above the sea floor...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kick-'em-Jenny
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, I've seen baby shark before. I bet they bite hard though.

I've heard that when baby sharks are in the womb, they eat the other shark embryos. Also, I don't wanna find out how hard they bite.
321. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, I've seen baby shark before. I bet they bite hard though. Can you find out for me? XD


nahh XD
It did swam basically behind me so it was a close call.
OK if I hear one more shark-related comment I'm gonna lose it XD
Good Night.
Quoting scooster67:
Its all good twin. He attacks every viewpoint that doesn't support his position.
Your point being? [I was kinda enjoying the debate, though I am fully aware this is perhaps not the best forum for it....]

@ twincomanche.... nothing wrong with a good disagreement if discussed without having to resort to stepping outside in order to settle.... lol

And the rain is finally down here. Sure hope we can pick up an inch or two..

324. SLU
The NOGAPS storm is unlikely but most of the models have been showing for days now a strong wave entering the Caribbean in 72 - 96hrs.
Quoting SLU:
The NOGAPS storm is unlikely but most of the models have been showing for days now a strong wave entering the Caribbean in 72 - 96hrs.


Yeah, the NOGAPS model takes the tropical wave farther north than any of the other models, which is probably way it develops it and the others do not.
FWIW the NOGAPS and CMC show the same system.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Yet you didn't take pictures? You tease. :P
Hey, meng... I was driving at the time... I needed to keep at least 1 hand on the road, and couldn't dig the camera out in time.... not that I didn't try.... lol
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Evening Baha,

I can tell you what's "not kickin".... (fortunately)

Kick-'em-Jenny
(also: Kick'em Jenny or Mt. Kick-'Em-Jenny) is an active submarine volcano or seamount on the Caribbean Sea floor, located 8 km (5 mi) north of the island of Grenada and about 8 km (5 mi) west of Ronde Island in the Grenadines. Kick-'em-Jenny rises 1,300 m (4,265 ft) above the sea floor...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kick-'em-Jenny
LOL... hey, neighbour... did u guys get much rain from that Twavelet yesterday? I'm living in hopes we will get an inch between now and tomorrow....

@TomTayor.... I'm smiling at ur enthusiasm for the kind of wx that makes a whole bunch of us go "Ugh" and run for the A/C.... lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's probably not going to come true, it's just making up tropical cyclones just as the CMC does. The wave that the model spins up into a hurricane is the far east wave.


The stuff approaching 60W is not a wave, I dont think.
It's a low level trough.

In any case, it's bringing rain here. AGAIN!
Post 329.
Wicked!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
<
I saw that..... LOL

Quoting pottery:

The stuff approaching 60W is not a wave, I dont think.
It's a low level trough.

In any case, it's bringing rain here. AGAIN!
Yeah, saw that on the analysis somebody posted earlier. Looks pretty healthy for a lowly short trough....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
<


<

first time I've updated the ole avatar since 2007.
Quoting pottery:
Post 329.
Wicked!!
want to see something wicked

336. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:

The stuff approaching 60W is not a wave, I dont think.
It's a low level trough.

In any case, it's bringing rain here. AGAIN!


Actually we are talking about the area at 30-40W but that inst a wave either. XD

Nice Convergence

Cant say the same for the divergence.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
want to see something wicked

What storm is that?
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL... hey, neighbour... did u guys get much rain from that Twavelet yesterday? I'm living in hopes we will get an inch between now and tomorrow....


We got an inch in some areas for sure.... good luck, but look out for the lightning.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
want to see something wicked

That has got to be Wilma.... never seen an[other] eye like that in the CAR....
Quoting KoritheMan:

What storm is that?
wilma oct 05
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Will do. I'm hoping we get most of the rain etc. overnight... most beneficial that way.

Wonder if I should post in my blog.... lol .... nah....
Breaking news

Phoenix duststorm on twc,
Quoting IceCoast:
i like to call it the dancing hurricane
Quoting RitaEvac:
Breaking news

Phoenix duststorm on twc,


Wow, that live shot is unreal.
i am watching that tropical wave at 55 westfor next 48 hours i like to see where is going to!!
right now dust storm Phoenix

Only 100 today at my house, gives me 28 days of 100 or greater. Showers got within 100 miles of my house but No change according to Local Forecasts.


With another triple digit day at Austin - Mabry Tuesday (101), we are at 22 days of 100+ so far this year. Remember 2009 when we had 68 days of 100+? Well at this point in the year we are actually slightly ahead of 2009's pace! And get this, in 2010 we only had 22 TOTAL days of 100+. So, yeah... we're cookin' this year.


Unfortunately models continue to give us no reason to change the forecast much for the rest of the week.


Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
i am watching that tropical wave at 55 westfor next 48 hours i like to see where is going to!!



I have to say that for me,this is the most interesting area to watch right now.
351. DDR
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
i am watching that tropical wave at 55 westfor next 48 hours i like to see where is going to!!

Its going right over my island ,i can tell you that for sure.
Arizona DOT traffic cams showing dust storm:

http://www.az511.gov/adot/files/cameras/#
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
@Caneswatch:

One of the most common type of shark here is the Sand Shark and the Bull Shark. There in Florida, Bull Sharks aren't really common, while they are here. They are one of the most aggressive types of sharks, which is what really gets me about getting in the water. I have no problem with the Sand Shark...I think.


Here, bull sharks are usually the attackers. A few years ago, I almost caught one fishing offshore.
355. j2008
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Arizona DOT traffic cams showing dust storm:

http://www.az511.gov/adot/files/cameras/#

That same storm thats creating all that dust in Phoenix, dropped 1.6 inches of rain here at my house in Tucson thats almost the whole months rainfall total; it also created a 75 mph wind gust. Its been a pretty exciting week out here in Tucson; severe storms almost every day.
Quoting caneswatch:


Here, bull sharks are usually the attackers. A few years ago, I almost caught one fishing offshore.


And also Bull Sharks can be found miles up a river...

Unlike most sharks, bull sharks tolerate fresh water and can travel far up rivers. They have even been known to travel as far up as Indiana in the Ohio River and Illinois in the Mississippi River, although there have been few recorded attacks. As a result, they are probably responsible for the majority of near-shore shark attacks, including many attacks attributed to other species.
at 55 west!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
@Caneswatch:

One of the most common type of shark here is the Sand Shark and the Bull Shark. There in Florida, Bull Sharks aren't really common, while they are here. They are one of the most aggressive types of sharks, which is what really gets me about getting in the water. I have no problem with the Sand Shark...I think.


Most common sharks in FL are the Blacktip & Spinners. Blacktips are what reach the dinner table and cause the most hit an run attacks on humans..
359. JRRP
ahora le ponen atencion a la onda al este de las antillas...
por Dios!!!!
Quoting JRRP:
ahora le ponen atencion a la onda al este de las antillas...
por Dios!!!!
Que tu crees de esa onda? Coditions aren't the best I think, to much shear and is kind of early in July but not out of the picture...
361. JRRP
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Que tu crees de esa onda? Coditions aren't the best I think, to much shear and is kind of early in July but not out of the picture...

ni el GFS ni el Euro han mostrado algo en esa onda... por el momento no creo que evolucione mucho. may be we will see an INVEST but no more i think
Phoenix Dust Storm: Massive Dust Storm Drastically Reduces Visibility



PHOENIX -- A massive dust storm has swept into the Phoenix area and drastically reduced visibility across much of the valley.

The wall of dust moved across the desert from the south on Tuesday and descended on the valley by nightfall. KSAZ-TV reported the storm appeared to be roughly 50-miles wide.

The National Weather Service says strong winds with gusts of more than 60 mph were moving northwest through Phoenix and the cities of Avondale, Tempe and Scottsdale. More than a dozen communities in the area also were under a severe thunderstorm watch until 11 p.m.

The Federal Aviation Administration said on its website that because of low visibility in the area, no Phoenix-bound flights were allowed to leave Las Vegas or Los Angeles airports until 9 p.m. link
Quoting BahaHurican:
@TomTayor.... I'm smiling at ur enthusiasm for the kind of wx that makes a whole bunch of us go "Ugh" and run for the A/C.... lol
yeah lol

Well we didn't get rain here unfortunately. But considering these thunderstorms developed SE of us over Mexico, we got damn close to rain. We had a rainbow, winds picked up quite a bit, and the sky got really dark to the SE. Still never got our rain though. We did get a great sunset though, nice breeze, cool rainbow, good amount of rain in the SE county, and the weather has been nice and humid. It's gonna be a warm one tonight
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUL 5 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.



That's what politicians do sometimes, hope, belief, faith, etc. Why should that be surprising? Were you expecting logic from politicians?...{chuckle}

To sound like a politician, I hope rain comes to all those areas in need, and lessens to all those areas with flooding; oh, and by the way vote for me in November, and send money.

Where are thoughts, prayers and donations should be placed IMHO is with the victims of flooding, tornado, and other weather disasters. It's been a tough year for some. Let's keep them in mind.

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


Governor Perry Calls For Prayer To End Texas Drought


Texas Governor Rick Perry has declared three days of prayer in response to the drought that is impacting Texas and helping to cause severe wildfires. Link

Let's start praying!
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Only 100 today at my house, gives me 28 days of 100 or greater. Showers got within 100 miles of my house but No change according to Local Forecasts.


With another triple digit day at Austin - Mabry Tuesday (101), we are at 22 days of 100+ so far this year. Remember 2009 when we had 68 days of 100+? Well at this point in the year we are actually slightly ahead of 2009's pace! And get this, in 2010 we only had 22 TOTAL days of 100+. So, yeah... we're cookin' this year.


Unfortunately models continue to give us no reason to change the forecast much for the rest of the week.




Hey Bo. :) There was a cloud with some flashy things and some loud rumbling noise, with stuff falling out of it, passed over enough area today to keep us this side of the century mark. But just so. And, like you said, no relief in site. Only one city around here managed to set itself on fire with their fireworks display on the 4th. Sigh. :(

Marsh fire continues to burn in Port Arthur
By Marcus Powers

A fire blamed on last night's Port Arthur city fireworks show has burned 50 acres of marshland and continues to burn tonight.

Flames are not threatening any homes and no injuries have been reported.

The fire started during the July 4th public celebration.

Fire crews put out hot spots earlier this morning.



LOL. THIS is how dry it is. The puddle from today's cloud in the parking lot of the local ABC affiliate made news. Lol. We are grateful. Thank you for the rain. :)

370. JLPR2
And the parade of ITCZ disturbances begin. XD


Quoting AtHomeInTX:
LOL. THIS is how dry it is. The puddle from today's cloud in the parking lot of the local ABC affiliate made news. Lol. We are grateful. Thank you for the rain. :)



You got some rain??
Quoting traumaboyy:


You got some rain??


Yes. Sort of. A bit. :) And just when I was saying how grateful I am for it I read some more local news. Turns out wasn't as good for everyone. Sigh. I'm glad everyone made it out ok. Then there's unidentified smoke all over SE TX. But no one knows where it's coming from tonight. And just our regular everyday brush fires. Things are getting very strange around here. And kinda scary.

Lightning sparks house fire

July 05, 2011 7:22 PM
Scott Lawrence

BEAUMONT - Investigators say it appears lightning is the cause of a fire in Beaumont's west end.

Edna Hornsby and her children reported hearing a loud noise at about 5 p.m. Tuesday. A short time later a neighbor alerted them that their home in the 9600 block of Meadowick was on fire. The family escaped and no one was hurt.

When firefighters arrived they saw flames coming from the roof and chimney of the two story home. They got inside and discovered flames in the attic. Firefighters quickly put out the fire and contained the fire damage to the attic. There was some smoke and water damage to other areas of the home.

Woods fire breaks out in Lumberton
July 05, 2011 3:10 PM
Scott Lawrence

LUMBERTON - Volunteer firefighters put out a 10 acre fire off FM 421 in Lumberton.

The fire broke out Tuesday afternoon.

No homes or buildings were damaged.


July 5, 2011
Smoke fills air in area

Staff reports The Orange Leader

ORANGE — Smoke filled the area Tuesday evening and the source of the smokey conditions was unknown late Tuesday night.

It had been reported a brush fire ignited near Vidor yet the blaze was not confirmed. Facebook posts from area readers claimed the smoke was seen all over Southeast Texas including both Jefferson and Orange Counties.

The smoke was not visible in the Bridge City area late Tuesday night.
I do pray this drought ends soon for you and all affected. I have actually bought hay for horses in JULY!!
looking good that disturbance near 55w
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
want to see something wicked



That is cool. My first guess was Wilma. The eye gave it away for me. Can you imagine what that wicked swirl of an eyewall was producing at her peak!
From TheWeatherChannel, "From 1966-2010, there have been 46 named storms that have formed in July. So, on average, you'll see a named storm form in July every year or so. Of those, 20 were hurricanes, so expect a July hurricane every 2-3 years.
Major hurricanes (Category three or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), are even more rare in July. Since 1950, there have been only five major July hurricanes.
That said, three of those major July hurricanes have occurred in the last six seasons."

Also from TWC, "A horse on the lamb captured on dash cam"

358 ProgressivePulse "Most common sharks in FL are the Blacktip & Spinners. Blacktips are what reach the dinner table and cause the most hit and run attacks on humans."

Well they wouldn't hafta drive if you folks would quit inviting them to dinner.
Here's one of many videos posted from yesterday evening's massive Phoenix sandstorm:



On a related sidenote: Oklahoma City has had more 100 degree days this year than has Las Vegas.
Good morning dayshift, don't even ask me what day it is.

Thanks for the vid, Nea, I didn't get to see any of it from work yesterday.

"How to grow a desert in your own backyard", Part one.
Quoting aspectre:
From TheWeatherChannel, "From 1966-2010, there have been 46 named storms that have formed in July. So, on average, you'll see a named storm form in July every year or so. Of those, 20 were hurricanes, so expect a July hurricane every 2-3 years.
Major hurricanes (Category three or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), are even more rare in July. Since 1950, there have been only five major July hurricanes.
That said, three of those major July hurricanes have occurred in the last six seasons."

Also from TWC, "A horse on the lamb captured on dash cam"

358 ProgressivePulse "Most common sharks in FL are the Blacktip & Spinners. Blacktips are what reach the dinner table and cause the most hit and run attacks on humans."

Well they wouldn't hafta drive if you folks would quit inviting them to dinner.
bull sharks kick butt
Quoting JRRP:

ni el GFS ni el Euro han mostrado algo en esa onda... por el momento no creo que evolucione mucho. may be we will see an INVEST but no more i think


Ingles por favor
Good morning to all.

It looks like rain returns to Puerto Rico starting tommorow,to keep adding to the 2011 rainfall total after the June record of 13.60 inches.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
LOL. THIS is how dry it is. The puddle from today's cloud in the parking lot of the local ABC affiliate made news. Lol. We are grateful. Thank you for the rain. :)

Glad you got some rain, hope you get more, keep me posted. I am praying for all those who need rain and for all those who need to dry out. Seems to be one extreme to another. Have a great day!
Up to 50%.

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


/strong>
Good morning folks

Yesterday Grand Cayman received over 2 inches of much needed rain and all indications are that we will get more today. Great news here.

Meanwhile, out in the Atlantic there is a very strong cluster of thunderstorms near 40 W that both the GFS and NOGAPS are picking up on and tracking into the very Southern Caribbean over the general vicinity of Trinidad as an area of low pressure. The GFS eventually takes this into the SW Caribbean. The ECMWF also shows a low in the SW Caribbean near the 144 hour time frame.

With these three models all picking up on this it bears watching. Further N the CMC is still hinting on a system near the Outer Banks.

The 2011 season is becoming more interesting.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 10 MPH.

wow moving up very fast at this time last night its was only at 10% now is 50% and still going up!!
nice tropical wave at 43 west

And yet another nuclear powerplant shut down by the Attack of the Greenhouse Jellyfish
389. SLU
Pre-Bret? The 06z GFS is mighty aggressive with the wave near 40W.
So now you have the NAM, CMC and Nogaps predicting a storm off the NC coast this weekend but not yet convinced it will happen..a wait and see (makes for good surfing though)

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STILL NOT ABOUT TO JUMP ON ANY TROPICAL
SCENARIOS ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS...PRINCIPALLY THE NAM. GIVEN
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE YOUR TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH SCENARIO WITH A
GENERALLY SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE WATERS. GRADIENT IS NOT TIGHT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN 10-15 KT...BUT A DECENT SE
FETCH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN A HEALTHY 8
SECOND SSE SWELL...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT 4 FT SEAS AND EVEN
SOME 5 FOOTERS ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND SEAS COULD RUN LOWER OR
HIGHER DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY STRONG LOWS DEVELOP.
One more video of last evening's Phoenix sandstorm. Forgive the overly-dramatic music; it's not mine:

Quoting SLU:
Pre-Bret? The 06z GFS is mighty aggressive with the wave near 40W.
thats the one with the bad reputation
can anyone explain why shear is increasing in the carribean?
Quoting SLU:
Pre-Bret? The 06z GFS is mighty aggressive with the wave near 40W.
Good morning Slu..I saw that too.The NAM is aggressive with this wave near the Leewards..Check out the spin over Jamaica at the end of the run..Link...Lotsa rain for FLorida on the CMC with the possibility of a small low forming off the S.W.coast..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Still can't get it through my head that a 10-year old girl was bitten at Topsail Beach here in SE NC while standing in three feet of water. I swim in this area all the time, but....TropicalAnalystwx13 doesn't think he'll be getting back in the water anymore. Officials think it was a bull shark, one of the most aggressive types of shark not only in this area, but in the world.



Heck, I haven't gone into the ocean since I saw Jaws for the first time...
blog is really slow. Need an invest, or a pre-invest, or a pre-pre-invest.

Satellite loops from Wilma that were posted last night were incredible. Would have loved to been on the blog back then (if it existed).





Here's a question everyone can answer:

Do you remember how you found this site? I honestly can't remember exactly how I stumbled across it. I'm thinking that one of our local mets mentioned it on the air once but I'm not sure.

How did the rest of you end up here?

Quoting traumaboyy:
I do pray this drought ends soon for you and all affected. I have actually bought hay for horses in JULY!!
Hey, if you'll pray for me I'll dance naked in the forest at the Full Moon for you.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Here's one of many videos posted from yesterday evening's massive Phoenix sandstorm:



On a related sidenote: Oklahoma City has had more 100 degree days this year than has Las Vegas.
Dust Bowl time!
Quoting TampaTom:


Heck, I haven't gone into the ocean since I saw Jaws for the first time...
back in the early 70s surfing near aquada puerto rico i got chased all the way to the beach by a big hammerhead. later found out there has never been a documented shark attack there. maybe i should of stayed out since they dont bite?
Good Morning All. Looks like Central Florida will have another warm but nice sunny day. Thanks for videos Neo. Have a good day all.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey, if you'll pray for me I'll dance naked in the forest at the Full Moon for you.

If a Sheri dances naked in the forest. does it make a noise? Just wondering.
Quoting weaverwxman:

If a Sheri dances naked in the forest. does it make a noise? Just wondering.


Ok, thats just wrong... on so many levels....
Quoting BobinTampa:
Here's a question everyone can answer:

Do you remember how you found this site? I honestly can't remember exactly how I stumbled across it. I'm thinking that one of our local mets mentioned it on the air once but I'm not sure.

How did the rest of you end up here?

I found WU on the internet while researching weather history..Check out the accum. rainfall pattern on the NOGAPS. You can see a rain swath from the Atlantic through the Caribbean, then over Florida and up the eastern seaboard.(excluding New England).
406. SLU
Quoting islander101010:
thats the one with the bad reputation


Refresh my memory on that bad reputation.
407. SLU
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Slu..I saw that too.The NAM is aggressive with this wave near the Leewards..Check out the spin over Jamaica at the end of the run..Link...Lotsa rain for FLorida on the CMC with the possibility of a small low forming off the S.W.coast..


Interesting
Good Morning...
Torrential rain with strong squalls here this morning so far.
More coming>>>>>>
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, thats just wrong... on so many levels....
lol..Some people will do anything for rain..:)..Mornin Orc.
410. P451
Quoting aspectre:

And yet another nuclear powerplant shut down by the Attack of the Greenhouse Jellyfish


Says the Israel plant is coal fired.

Still though the Jellyfish are a nuisance. I heard from home at the Jersey Shore (I live in NY now) that we already had gotten swarmed by the little guys - generally a nickel in size - millions of them. It's like swimming in pea soup. They're about four weeks early.


---

As for the shark discussion there were numerous sharks reported just off of long island in swimming waters not ten feet from the shore. While sharks are common in the NJ/NY area they tend to stay off shore except for the brown/sand sharks which like to lurk near jetties. I forget what the sharks off long island were. It was unusual though.

There seems to be an uptick in shark reports.

I don't think it indicates anything necessarily. Every so often the conditions are ripe for sharks to want to venture close to the NY/NJ shorelines and this just happens to be one of those times (last year and now this year apparently).



Pressure 1014
Winds SSE 15 mph
Enter 'piarco' in searchbox above for the local airport if interested.
Quoting pottery:
Pressure 1014
Winds SSE 15 mph
Enter 'piarco' in searchbox above for the local airport if interested.


I see your still under a Blob warning going over the house... should dry up again in what... 5 -6 months?
The CMC clearly shows a low off the west coast of Florida..
Quoting SLU:


Refresh my memory on that bad reputation.
I remember Bret at cat-4 strength hitting South Texas in 1999. Fortunately it is not a populated area.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I see your still under a Blob warning going over the house... should dry up again in what... 5 -6 months?

Yep!
Christmas morning should be Fine and Sunny....
Looking forward to that!
Unless this upper low moves out of the gulf, I dont believe that wave will spin up.
Quoting pottery:

Yep!
Christmas morning should be Fine and Sunny....
Looking forward to that!
Good morning Pott.How is ( The Tree)?
419. SLU
Quoting hydrus:
I remember Bret at cat-4 strength hitting South Texas in 1999. Fortunately it is not a populated area.
Quoting hydrus:
I remember Bret at cat-4 strength hitting South Texas in 1999. Fortunately it is not a populated area.


Yep I remember. It was one of the least destructive landfalling cat 4's as a result.
Quoting hydrus:
The CMC clearly shows a low off the west coast of Florida..


Hope so, looks good and would be an attribute of the portion of the wave that resides in the Caribbean ATM. Some short term models (NAM, RUC) place development of the Nrthrn branch off the east coast in as little as 10 hours.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011/

..POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT 3 DAYS...

DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIB ACROSS W CENTRAL CUBA OVER
ANDROS ISLAND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS S FLA AND WILL BE IN THE E GULF OF MEX BY THU
MORNING. A BREAK IN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES/THE SE U.S. AND N FLA OCCURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE SE U.S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR THE ALLOW THE WAVE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE
WHICH BEGINS
TO REBUILD SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FLA STRAITS THEN NORTHWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND...REJOINING WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER S
FLA...A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OCCURS. ALL MODELS...SHORT
RANGE AND GLOBAL...INDICATE INCREASING PWATS THROUGH THIS TIME TO
OVER 2.50 INCHES. MODELS ALSO HINT AT SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL DEVELOP
-MENT OVER THE GULF WHICH PUTS S FLA ON THE WET SIDE. COMBINE THIS
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO CIRCULATION
ABOUT THE ATLC RIDGE AND A WEAK UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE SW
PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEX...HAVE POPS UPPED ACCORDINGLY.
STEERING
WINDS EASTERLY TODAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THU BUT SOUTHWESTERLY
FRI OVER S FLA. SOME RAINFALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT POSSIBLY 2 TO
3 INCHES MAY FALL ACROSS S FLA WED THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
..LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS EXPECTED.
In Florida the sharks to be most afraid of are the Bull, Hammerhead and the most feared other than the Great White, the Tiger shark. Nurse sharks can also be aggressive against humans.
CMC Theta-E shows Florida staying wet..
Why is there shear increasing in the carribean??
Pottery. which way is that wave moving ? will it climb much or head West ?
Mean trough still seems to be set up in a bad location as we approach the meat of the season. I am hoping this changes.

A BREAK IN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES/THE SE U.S. AND N FLA OCCURS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE SE U.S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR THE ALLOW THE WAVE TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE
Quoting TropicalTracker2011:
Why is there shear increasing in the carribean??
Upper low moving s.w.from the Atlantic..Upper low in the gulf is affecting the Western Caribbean too..
As one who grew up on the beaches of Ft.Lauderdale I have seen many sharks very close to shore especially at high tide. Sharks are always hungry and sometimes confuse people as food. After they have taken a bite and realize it is not their normal menu they tend to let go and swim away. So here is my advice, do not swim alone even close to shore. When the waves are rough and you have limited visibility do not swim.
Quoting TropicalTracker2011:
Why is there shear increasing in the carribean??


Shear is not bad in the west.

Eastern Caribbean shear is caused by a TUTT dropping in from the C-Atl.

Quoting CaneBob:
In Florida the sharks to be most afraid of are the Bull, Hammerhead and the most feared other than the Great White, the Tiger shark. Nurse sharks can also be aggressive against humans.
Bull sharks have a serious attitude problem. They are aggressive and will attack almost anything. I saw one attack an outboard motor with rage.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Shear is not bad in the west.

Eastern Caribbean shear is caused by a TUTT dropping in from the C-Atl.


Will it weaken anytime soon to allow one of those waves to develop?
What's going on in the tropics? First day on since surgery on Monday.
Quoting hydrus:
Bull sharks have a serious attitude problem. They are aggressive and will attack almost anything. I saw one attack an outboard motor with rage.


Went wade fishing in the GOM and caught a tiger shark and a hammerhead shark. That was pretty crazy.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Went wade fishing in the GOM and caught a tiger shark and a hammerhead shark. That was pretty crazy.
Caught a hammer head, never a tiger...
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Went wade fishing in the GOM and caught a tiger shark and a hammerhead shark. That was pretty crazy.
Yes, it was crazy to be wading into the ocean, then throwing bait in so the fish have a choice of what to bite. Good thing they took the bait and not you. Good morning everyone. Nice rain here in the keys. Finally our rainy season has started.
Quoting TropicalTracker2011:

Will it weaken anytime soon to allow one of those waves to develop?



Little too much going on ATM which is creating a rather hostile environment across the basin. Maybe in the next week or two.
Quoting kwgirl:
Yes, it was crazy to be wading into the ocean, then throwing bait in so the fish have a choice of what to bite. Good thing they took the bait and not you. Good morning everyone. Nice rain here in the keys. Finally our rainy season has started.


Usually there are three things in the GOM where I live: seaweed, trout, and bait fish.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
What's going on in the tropics? First day on since surgery on Monday.
i hope this will help you feel better all calm in the atlantic tropics
Pattern should flatten out by day 5.


Quoting islander101010:
i hope this will help you feel better all calm in the atlantic tropics


Thanks that helps a little bit. Is there still possible formation off the East Coast in a few days?
how about the nurse shark that bit a guy in the chest and they had to take him to surgery to get the jaws released! all calm the everglades is going to get some needed rain
Possibly some action for the Outer Banks of NC coming up.

They sure could use a good soaking, given their percentage of precipitation for the last 60 days is well below what they would see on average for that time span.

click on image to enlarge
Quoting BobinTampa:
Here's a question everyone can answer:

Do you remember how you found this site? I honestly can't remember exactly how I stumbled across it. I'm thinking that one of our local mets mentioned it on the air once but I'm not sure.

How did the rest of you end up here?



Someone in the sports forum I moderate posted the spaghetti model map from one of the FLA canes in '04 is how I found out about WU. It was one of the early '05 canes when I found the blog - Dennis maybe? I was on for Katrina (but not registered). That was wild
Quoting hydrus:
The CMC clearly shows a low off the west coast of Florida..


That clearly shows a vorticity, looking at MSLP there is no low.. You don't always get one with vorticity. Does look better for rain..
Anyone else having issues with the SSD site?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hey Bo. :) There was a cloud with some flashy things and some loud rumbling noise, with stuff falling out of it, passed over enough area today to keep us this side of the century mark. But just so. And, like you said, no relief in site. Only one city around here managed to set itself on fire with their fireworks display on the 4th. Sigh. :(

Marsh fire continues to burn in Port Arthur
By Marcus Powers

A fire blamed on last night's Port Arthur city fireworks show has burned 50 acres of marshland and continues to burn tonight.

Flames are not threatening any homes and no injuries have been reported.

The fire started during the July 4th public celebration.

Fire crews put out hot spots earlier this morning.



For some reason, if you had told me one city in the Golden Triangle had done that, I think I would have guessed Port Arthur...
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Usually there are three things in the GOM where I live: seaweed, trout, and bait fish.
I know what you are saying. I have lived in the Keys all my life and all the times I have snorkled at the reef, I have never seen a shark. However, I know they are in the ocean and when I see scuba divers spearfishing where I am snorkling or even rod and reel fishermen off their boat, then I get out of the water.
A dust storm up to 50 miles wide and a mile high descended on the Phoenix area on Tuesday night, grounding flights, forcing drivers to stop and causing thousands of power outages.

The National Weather Service said strong winds with gusts of more than 60 miles per hour moved the dust cloud northwest through Phoenix and the cities of Avondale, Tempe and Scottsdale.

Link
Quoting BobinTampa (#397):
Here's a question everyone can answer:

Do you remember how you found this site? I honestly can't remember exactly how I stumbled across it. I'm thinking that one of our local mets mentioned it on the air once but I'm not sure.

How did the rest of you end up here?


I was attempting to answer a hurricane-related question for a client a few days before Wilma hit Florida, so I Googled for some help and found what I needed in one of Dr. Masters' posts. I lurked for four years after that before finally signing up.
Quoting SLU:


Yep I remember. It was one of the least destructive landfalling cat 4's as a result.
Bret must have hit around the King Ranch area. I remember as a child riding past there and seeing the signs, "Trespassers will be shot." They meant it, too. No wonder it was so unpopulated!
COULD THE AREA OF DISTURBED AREA NEAR 40 W BE OUR NEW INVEST OR BRET?
an area of disturbed weather located in the cental atlantic near 40 W is beginning to show signs of organisation. cloudiness has increase in the area, and the low cloud field is showing signs of convergence.Looking at the shear map from CIMMS this morning the area is within 5-20 knot shear at the moment with shear values to decrease the next 24 hrs. there is considerable convergence and divergence as the system progresses westward. the 850mb vorticity is not that strong. the only model that is showing development is the gfs.we have known the aggession of the gfs in the early part of seasons before and we have to wait to see if any of the reliable models come on board. all the same it is an interesting feature and one rhat should be monitored closely
Quoting Skyepony:


That clearly shows a vorticity, looking at MSLP there is no low.. You don't always get one with vorticity. Does look better for rain..


There is indeed a low associated with it. The CMC develops this system off the US Coast, not off Florida.

455. PTXer
Does anyone have a link for good radar coverage of the Dominican Republic?
http://www.onamet.gov.do/radar/
Quoting PTXer:
Does anyone have a link for good radar coverage of the Dominican Republic?


Sure thing here you go.

D.R. Radar image

You can get more tropical radars towards the bottom of my TC links page.

Hope that helps. adrian
458. PTXer
Thanks for the links! Much appreciated!
Seems to be out of date though (June)
Quoting msphar:
Pottery. which way is that wave moving ? will it climb much or head West ?

Sorry for the late answer...
It's not a Wave apparently.
A low-level trough, that has brought the convection up from the ITCZ.
I would think WNW would be my guess for movement initially.
Looking at the pressure here this morning it was 1014. Winds were SSE.
A wave would have shown a lower pressure.

Plenty of rain so far today....
Cyberteddy:


1205 GMT (8:05 a.m. EDT)
The weather outlook for Friday has worsened to just a 30 percent chance that conditions will be good enough to launch Atlantis. Thunderstorms around the Kennedy Space Center will be the concern for the 11:26 a.m. EDT launch time.

The odds improve slightly to 40 percent favorable on Saturday and jump to 60 percent on Sunday.

"High clouds are streaming into the area from the southwest associated with convection in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico caused by an upper level low. Easterly flow continues today which will cause any developing weather to remain inland. A tropical wave in the Bahamas is moving west-northwest and will impact Florida on Thursday, increasing moisture and bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon and evening," forecasters reported this morning.

"By Friday, the wave will merge over Florida with an upper level trough, causing the wave to stall over the Florida area. This will bring significant cloud cover with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms causing concerns for launch weather. Our primary concerns for launch are showers and thunderstorms within 20 nautical miles of the Shuttle Landing Facility, flight through precipitation, and cumulus clouds.

"Due to the launch time moving earlier and a slightly dryer atmosphere each day, the threat of weather decreases each day; therefore, the probability of Kennedy Space Center weather prohibiting launch decreases as well."
the wave by 40W looks great but its going to move into the carribean which is full of shear :(
460. Yup, heard about that this AM.

I'm still going to try to head out there, but in all likelihood its going to scrub Friday and more than likely on Saturday but we could get lucky, its Florida, weather in Florida in the summer is wild. My bets are on Sunday AM launch at 10:38:30 AM.
A bit of a U.S. milestone was passed yesterday temperature-wise. According to the NCDC, record daily high or high minimum temperature records have outnumbered record daily low or low maximum records in 2011 by more than 10,000.

The breakdown to-date:

    8,803 new record highs
    4,409 record highs tied with existing records
    --------------------
    13,252 record daily highs

    7,681 new record high minimums
    4,257 record high minimums tied with existing records
    --------------------
    11,938 record daily high minimums
  --------------------
25,190 record daily highs and high minimums set or tied
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
    3,601 new record lows
    1,851 record lows tied with existing records
    --------------------
    5,461 record daily lows

    7,210 new record low maximums
    2,418 record low maximums tied with existing records
    --------------------
    9,628 record daily low maximums
    --------------------
15,089 record daily lows or low maximums set or tied

Coincidentally, the "coldest" week of the year--that is, the one in which record lows of all kinds outnumbered record highs by the greatest margin--wasn't in winter, as you might expect, but rather the third week in May when an Omega block brought down massive amounts of cool air. Another "cold" week was the one following the Super Outbreak of tornadoes in late April.

The high temp/low temp ratio for the year as a whole is 1.67:1.
Good morning all.

I see my shark conversation was carried on all night long, lol.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
460. Yup, heard about that this AM.

I'm still going to try to head out there, but in all likelihood its going to scrub Friday and more than likely on Saturday but we could get lucky, its Florida, weather in Florida in the summer is wild. My bets are on Sunday AM launch at 10:38:30 AM.


Cancelled our Orlando hotel reservation for tomorrow night. Will head straight to our vacation spot in Palm Bay. Depending on odds, and everything else, we may or may not go up to Titusville. :(
Quoting stoormfury:
COULD THE AREA OF DISTURBED AREA NEAR 40 W BE OUR NEW INVEST OR BRET?
an area of disturbed weather located in the cental atlantic near 40 W is beginning to show signs of organisation. cloudiness has increase in the area, and the low cloud field is showing signs of convergence.Looking at the shear map from CIMMS this morning the area is within 5-20 knot shear at the moment with shear values to decrease the next 24 hrs. there is considerable convergence and divergence as the system progresses westward. the 850mb vorticity is not that strong. the only model that is showing development is the gfs.we have known the aggession of the gfs in the early part of seasons before and we have to wait to see if any of the reliable models come on board. all the same it is an interesting feature and one rhat should be monitored closely


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



i got a question once the impressive wave gets into the eastern carribean it will be sheared apart and if it moves into the Gulf it will get sheared apart so im sad :(
468. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
COULD THE AREA OF DISTURBED AREA NEAR 40 W BE OUR NEW INVEST OR BRET?
an area of disturbed weather located in the cental atlantic near 40 W is beginning to show signs of organisation. cloudiness has increase in the area, and the low cloud field is showing signs of convergence.Looking at the shear map from CIMMS this morning the area is within 5-20 knot shear at the moment with shear values to decrease the next 24 hrs. there is considerable convergence and divergence as the system progresses westward. the 850mb vorticity is not that strong. the only model that is showing development is the gfs.we have known the aggession of the gfs in the early part of seasons before and we have to wait to see if any of the reliable models come on board. all the same it is an interesting feature and one rhat should be monitored closely


Yes sir! That's one that's gonna be headed our way come Friday night!
The vorticity associated with the wave out near 40W is clearly visible on the 850 mb. vorticity image from CIMSS.



There is an abundance of Upper Divergence and Lower Convergence, something we've not seen from the get go with an AOI. Previous AOI's have hard to gradually get lower level convergence, but this one already has it.





Wind Shear at this time isn't all too bad, and it should decrease as we head through the rest of today and into tomorrow. But, as it approaches the Caribbean, it should encounter moderate Wind Shear, if it doesn't decrease any, which it hasn't been doing.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The vorticity associated with the wave out near 40W is clearly visible on the 850 mb. vorticity image from CIMSS.



There is an abundance of Upper Divergence and Lower Convergence, something we've not seen from the get go with an AOI. Previous AOI's have hard to gradually get lower level convergence, but this one already has it.





Wind Shear at this time isn't all too bad, and it should decrease as we head through the rest of today and into tomorrow. But, as it approaches the Caribbean, it should encounter moderate Wind Shear, if it doesn't decrease any, which it hasn't been doing.






Reason why the Central/eastern carribean is full of shear is because of a TUTT and the Gulf is full of shear due to an ULL. Bad news is by the time the wave enters the carribean shear would be 30 knots but if the wave ever enters the gulf the ULL would be gone by then which would mean favorable shear
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