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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

2011: Earth's 11th warmest year; where is the climate headed?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:22 PM GMT on January 27, 2012

The year 2011 tied with 1997 as the 11th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said last week. NASA rated 2011 as the 9th warmest on record. Land temperatures were the 8th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures, the 11th warmest. For the Arctic, which has warmed about twice as much as the rest of the planet, 2011 was the warmest year on record (between 64°N and 90°N latitude.) The year 2011 was also the 2nd wettest year over land on record, as evidenced by some of the unprecedented flooding Earth witnessed. The wettest year over land was the previous year, 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2011. The Arctic was the warmest region, relative to average. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global temperatures were 0.12°C (0.2°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead.


Figure 2. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2011, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2011 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 33 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took the five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. Since the known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 33 years, either human activity or some unknown natural source is responsible for the global warming during that time period.


Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.

Commentary: what do climate scientists think?
Some scientists have proposed that previously unknown natural causes could be responsible for global warming, such as a decrease in cloud-producing galactic cosmic rays. Others have proposed that the climate may be responding to the heat-trapping effects of carbon dioxide by producing more clouds, which reflect away sunlight and offset the added heat-trapping gases. These theories have little support among actively publishing climate scientists. Despite public belief that climate scientists are divided about the human contribution to our changing climate, polling data show high agreement among climate scientists that humans are significantly affecting the climate. A 2008 poll of actively publishing climate scientists found that 97% said yes to the question, "Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?" In my personal experience interacting with climate scientists, I have found near-universal support for this position. For example, I am confident that all 23 climate scientists and meteorologists whom I am personally acquainted with at the University of Michigan's Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Science would agree that "human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures." It is good that we have scientists skeptical of the prevailing consensus challenging it, though, because that is how scientific progress is made. It may be that one of the scientists making these challenges will turn out to be the next Einstein or Galileo, and overthrow the conventional scientific wisdom on climate change. But Einsteins and Galileos don't come along very often. The history of science is littered with tens of thousands of discredited scientific papers that challenged the accepted scientific consensus and lost. If we rely on hopes that the next Einstein or Galileo will successfully overthrow the current scientific consensus on climate change, we are making a high-stakes, low-probability-of-success gamble on the future of civilization. The richest and most powerful corporations in world history, the oil companies, have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to push us to take this gamble, and their efforts have been very successful. Advertising works, particularly when your competition has little money to spend to oppose you.

Where is the climate headed?
The 2007 United Nations-sponsored IPCC report predicted that global temperatures between 2007 and 2030 should rise by an average of 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade. The observed warming over the past 30 years is 15 - 30% below that (but within the range of uncertainty given by the 2007 IPCC climate models.) Most of the increase in global temperatures during the past 30 years occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. The 2000s have seen relatively flat temperatures, despite increasing CO2 emissions by humans. The lower-than-expected warming may be partially due to a sharp decrease in stratospheric water vapor that began after 2000. The missing heat may also be going into the deep ocean waters below about 1,000 feet (300 meters), as part of a decades-long cycle that will bring extra heat to the surface years from now. Regardless, the laws of physics demand that the huge amount of heat-trapping gases humans are pumping into the atmosphere must be significantly altering the weather and climate, even if we are seeing a lower than predicted warming. As wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood said in a recent post,Changing the Conversation: Extreme Weather and Climate: "Given that greenhouse gases are well-known to hold energy close to the Earth, those who deny a human-caused impact on weather need to pose a viable mechanism of how the Earth can hold in more energy and the weather not be changed. Think about it."

Our recent unusual weather has made me think about this a lot. The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history--the "Super" tornado outbreak of 1974, the Dust Bowl summer of 1936, and the great Mississippi River flood of 1927. I appeared on PBS News Hour on December 28 (video here) to argue that watching the weather over the past two years has been like watching a famous baseball hitter on steroids--an analogy used in the past by climate scientists Tony Broccoli and Jerry Meehl. We're used to seeing the slugger hit the ball out of the park, but not with the frequency he's hitting them now that he's on steroids. Moreover, some of the home runs now land way back in the seats where no one has ever been able to hit a home run before. We can't say that any particular home run would not have occurred without the steroids, but the increase in home runs and the unprecedented ultra-long balls are highly suspicious. Similarly, Earth's 0.6°C (1°F) warming and 4% increase in global water vapor since 1970 have created an atmosphere on steroids. A warmer atmosphere has more energy to power stronger storms, hotter heat waves, more intense droughts, and heavier flooding rains. Natural weather patterns could have caused some of the extreme events we witnessed during 2010 - 2011, and these years likely would have been naturally extreme years even without climate change. But it strains the bounds of credulity that all of the extreme weather events--some of them 1-in-1000-year type events--could have occurred without a significant change to the base climate state. Mother Nature is now able to hit the ball out of the park more often, and with much more power, thanks to the extra energy global warming has put into the atmosphere.

Extreme weather years like 2010 and 2011 are very likely to increase in frequency, since there is a delay of several decades between when we put heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere and when the climate fully responds. This is because Earth's oceans take so long to heat up when extra heat is added to the atmosphere (think about how long it takes it takes for a lake to heat up during summer.) Due to this lag, we are just now experiencing the full effect of CO2 emitted by the late 1980s; since CO2 has been increasing by 1 - 3% per year since then, there is a lot more climate change "in the pipeline" we cannot avoid. We've set in motion a dangerous boulder of climate change that is rolling downhill, and it is too late to avoid major damage when it hits full-force several decades from now. However, we can reduce the ultimate severity of the damage with strong and rapid action. A boulder rolling downhill can be deflected in its path more readily early in its course, before it gains too much momentum in its downward rush. For example, the International Energy Agency estimates that every dollar we invest in alternative energy before 2020 will save $4.30 later. There are many talented and dedicated people working very hard to deflect the downhill-rolling boulder of climate change--but they need a lot more help very soon.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Scott. There is some really good info out there about the current warming trend. Scientists are researching ALL the possible causes, and data is coming in at a good clip. The Earth has been warming since the last ice age with a few exceptions. The Little Ice Age being one of them. It was a cold period between 1550 and 1850. This is a good link about it..Link.It is my personal opinion that it will be core samples taken from the worlds oceans and land masses that will prove that humans are causing some of the warming here on Earth. The tricky part is there can be no fuzzy math so to speak, and this type of research is not cheap by any stretch of the imagination. Another interesting co-factor is now they have discovered that some of the pollution being emitted into our atmosphere may be reflecting some solar radiation back out into space, another variable in the equation that will have to be dealt with a great degree of accuracy. Suffice it to say, eventually they will pin down the source of the warming in a fashion that will prove or disprove man-kinds true impact on the atmosphere, research that is irrefutable and cannot be dismissed or explained away. You said in your post that people are concerned for the planet. We should be, the generations to come are counting on it, and there will be a few books written on it for sure..:)
Interesting post, thanks
Quoting Neapolitan:
Being informed is the very best thing one can do, of course. Just remember, however, that not all sources of information are the same, so be careful what you accept and what you reject. IOW, consider the source; if it comes from a person or group funded by fossil fuel interests, it'll pay you to be extra vigilant while reading.
There are a couple of ways. First, it's helpful to know that manmade CO2 emissions are much smaller than natural emissions. However, those natural CO2 emissions are--and have almost always been--balanced by natural absorption (by both the ocean and vegetation). But now our rising CO2 emissions have upset that natural balance. About 40% of anthropogenic emissions are being absorbed by the oceans (leading to acidification), while the remaining 60% stays in the atmosphere, which is why atmospheric CO2 is at its highest level in hundreds or thousands, or even millions, of years. And that CO2 causes warming, as has been empirically proven again and again.

Second, scientists have closely examined the ratio of carbon isotopes found in the atmosphere and found that as atmospheric CO2 has risen, the percentage of plant-based CO2 has fallen--meaning, of course, that the excess CO2 is, indeed, coming from us.

Most scientists--in fact, all of them worth their diplomas--believe the earth has been here for not millions but billions of years. And, yes, the climate has changed in the past. Many times, in fact. Previous major changes have been caused by such things as Milankovich cycles (slow change) or supercolossal volcanic eruptions (swift change). In short, the climate responds to whatever is forcing it to change--and humans are now the dominant force. (My analogy: a man may have lost weight many times over the years while intentionally dieting, but if he starts losing weight spontaneously though he's not dieting, it would be foolish of him to simply dismiss it by saying, "Well, I've lost weight before.")

The big takeaway: the current warming is occurring many times faster than it did during any of the past slow changes--and it's important to remember that even those slow changes brought about massive disruptions to the biosphere.


I still think more observations are necessary before making a conclusion....
Quoting MrMarcus:
Not surprisingly, everyone in the scientific community isn't in agreement on this 'dire' set of predictions...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-20 93264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-N ASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html


Not surprisingly, you can only find nonsense like that in the Daily Mail, which is the equivalent of the Weekly World News as far as informative news sources go.

Thanks, but I think I'll stick to the scientific literature on the subject.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Being informed is the very best thing one can do, of course. Just remember, however, that not all sources of information are the same, so be careful what you accept and what you reject. IOW, consider the source; if it comes from a person or group funded by fossil fuel interests, it'll pay you to be extra vigilant while reading.
There are a couple of ways. First, it's helpful to know that manmade CO2 emissions are much smaller than natural emissions. However, those natural CO2 emissions are--and have almost always been--balanced by natural absorption (by both the ocean and vegetation). But now our rising CO2 emissions have upset that natural balance. About 40% of anthropogenic emissions are being absorbed by the oceans (leading to acidification), while the remaining 60% stays in the atmosphere, which is why atmospheric CO2 is at its highest level in hundreds or thousands, or even millions, of years. And that CO2 causes warming, as has been empirically proven again and again.

Second, scientists have closely examined the ratio of carbon isotopes found in the atmosphere and found that as atmospheric CO2 has risen, the percentage of plant-based CO2 has fallen--meaning, of course, that the excess CO2 is, indeed, coming from us.

Most scientists--in fact, all of them worth their diplomas--believe the earth has been here for not millions but billions of years. And, yes, the climate has changed in the past. Many times, in fact. Previous major changes have been caused by such things as Milankovich cycles (slow change) or supercolossal volcanic eruptions (swift change). In short, the climate responds to whatever is forcing it to change--and humans are now the dominant force. (My analogy: a man may have lost weight many times over the years while intentionally dieting, but if he starts losing weight spontaneously though he's not dieting, it would be foolish of him to simply dismiss it by saying, "Well, I've lost weight before.")

The big takeaway: the current warming is occurring many times faster than it did during any of the past slow changes--and it's important to remember that even those slow changes brought about massive disruptions to the biosphere.
Thanks for breaking my questions down and making it easy to understand that side of it. Im going to have to get off the fence sooner than later with more research. I do my part in taking care of my small footprint and also teach my children the same. Reality for the present is OIL runs the world in too many aspects. I think with patience and some time....not too much.... we can have a cleaner world... but not without affordability for the masses. I like the idea on post 478 to help with the finacial challanges of clean energy.

Climate Model Indications and the Observed Climate



Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change
Quoting RTSplayer:


Well, technically only galaxies outside our own galaxy cluster, the "local group".

Dark Energy was invented as a patch to explain this accelerating expansion of the universe. Not that anyone knows exactly what Dark Energy is, it's just a label for "That weird force we don't know how to describe."

However, what they are talking about is "something" warps the motion of the cosmos on a very large scale so that it appears to favor one direction over the other, and the "something" does not appear to be part of the universe itself.


Ya'll can try to 'spain this all away but, I still say we are heading in the wrong direction. The party is the other way! ;-)
Scientists find bacteria resistant to nearly all antibiotics in Antarctica sea water

Posted on January 29, 2012
January 29, 2012 – ANTARTICA – Bacteria that can resist nearly all antibiotics have been found in Antarctic seawater. Björn Olsen of Uppsala University in Sweden and colleagues took seawater samples between 10 and 300 meters away from Chile’s Antarctic research stations, Bernardo O’Higgins, Arturo Prat and Fildes Bay. A quarter of the samples of Escherichia coli bacteria carried genes that made an enzyme called ESBL, which can destroy penicillin, cephalosporins and related antibiotics. Bacteria with these genes can be even more dangerous than the better known superbug MRSA. That’s because the genes sit on a mobile chunk of DNA that can be acquired by many species of bacteria, increasing the incidence of drug-resistant infections such as the E. coli outbreak last year in Germany. The type of ESBL they found, called CTX-M, is common in bacteria in people, and the Uppsala study found that concentrations of resistant bacteria were higher close to the sewage outfalls from the stations. Some Antarctic stations started shipping out human feces for incineration after gut bacteria were found nearby. Chile’s research stations have virtually no sewage treatment in place, says Olsen. Recent work shows the bacteria may hang on to the genes for CTX-M even when no longer exposed to antibiotics, suggesting that superbugs can survive in the wild, with animals acting as a reservoir. Penguins near the Chilean stations have been checked and are free of ESBL, though Olsen is now looking at the area’s gulls as he has found ESBL-producing bugs in gulls in France. “If these genes are in Antarctica, it’s an indication of how far this [problem] has gone,” he says. –New Scientist


Scientists bewildered by mass migration of snowy owls from the Arctic
Posted on January 28, 2012
January 28, 2012 – SALMON, Idaho – Bird enthusiasts are reporting rising numbers of snowy owls from the Arctic winging into the lower 48 states this winter in a mass southern migration that a leading owl researcher called “unbelievable.” Thousands of the snow-white birds, which stand 2 feet tall with 5-foot wingspans, have been spotted from coast to coast, feeding in farmlands in Idaho, roosting on rooftops in Montana, gliding over golf courses in Missouri and soaring over shorelines in Massachusetts. A certain number of the iconic owls fly south from their Arctic breeding grounds each winter but rarely do so many venture so far away even amid large-scale, periodic southern migrations known as irruptions. “What we’re seeing now — it’s unbelievable,” said Denver Holt, head of the Owl Research Institute in Montana. “This is the most significant wildlife event in decades,” added Holt, who has studied snowy owls in their Arctic tundra ecosystem for two decades. Holt and other owl experts say the phenomenon is likely linked to lemmings, a rodent that accounts for 90 percent of the diet of snowy owls during breeding months that stretch from May into September. The largely nocturnal birds also prey on a host of other animals, from voles to geese. An especially plentiful supply of lemmings last season likely led to a population boom among owls that resulted in each breeding pair hatching as many as seven offspring.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Ya'll can try to 'spain this all away but, I still say we are heading in the wrong direction. The party is the other way! ;-)


any you are just annoyed because you were not invited. :)
Short Range Public Discussion

(Latest Discussion - Issued 2006Z Jan 28, 2012)


SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
306 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

VALID 00Z SUN JAN 29 2012 - 00Z TUE JAN 31 2012

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...


A FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH A VARY MODEST SUPPLE OF MOISTURE ... ONLY
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ROTATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY EVENING THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT ... THEN OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. LIKEWISE ... BEHIND THIS FRONT ... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
MONDAY.

ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST ... STARTING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION ... LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE STORM ... ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN PRODUCING LIGHT
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE ... AN OLD BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA
WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I still think more observations are necessary before making a conclusion....
Fair enough. Now, there have been millions of observations made in a myriad of areas, and numerous independent bits of research done along multiple lines of investigation. There have been thousands of peer-reviewed articles published, and more than a century of empirical evidence to bolster the theory that the planet's warming due to fossil-fuel emissions and deforestation. My question, then, is this: how much more would be needed to convince you?
499 MrMarcus "Not surprisingly, everyone in the scientific community isn't in agreement on this 'dire' set of predictions...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-20 93264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-N ASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html
"

206 aspectre : Decline in solar output unlikely to offset global warming
Excluding GlobalWarming due to excess greenhouse gases, "...if solar output [were] reduced below that seen in the Maunder Minimum - a period between 1645 and 1715 when solar activity was at its lowest observed level - the global temperature reduction would be 0.13C" by 2100
HOWEVER, "This compares to an expected warming of about 2.5degreesCelsius over the same period due to greenhouse gases."
Quoting MrMarcus:
Not surprisingly, everyone in the scientific community isn't in agreement on this 'dire' set of predictions...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-20 93264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-N ASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html
As Xyrus noted, that's hardly a scientific publication. The article quotes three well-known "skeptics"--Henrik Svensmark, Nicola Scafetta, and Juidth Curry--plus a spokesperson for the very skeptic Global Warming Policy Foundation, an organization that keeps its funding hidden for "security purposes". Yet the article quotes just a single supporter, Peter Stott. In the article, Stott is quoted as saying, "Our findings suggest a reduction of solar activity to levels not seen in hundreds of years would be insufficient to offset the dominant influence of greenhouse gases"--but then the article went on to say that conclusion was "fiercely disputed" by the other experts they quoted.

I suppose that's the Mail's version of "fair and balanced", huh? ;-)
Our progress has reached a point where something must give.

We see more change in a Year now, than we have seen in the last Thousand.

Soon we shall reach a point where we shall see more change in a single day, than in the last 20,000 years.

Nature, and the Universe are being drawn toward some great attractor just over the Horizon.

A birth, we shall witness.
I called the cold winter for Eurasia because of the low Arctic sea ice north of there..They'd be getting it like I did the previous two years when the Hudson struggled hard to refreeze. Nice to see the whole idea of it get published..



Climatic Change, 110(4-3) (2012) 1069-1075; doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0334-z



A link between Arctic sea ice and recent cooling trends over Eurasia
S. D. Outten and I. Esau (G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thormhlensgt. 47, 5006 Bergen, Norway)


Abstract

A band of cooling that extends across mid-latitude Eurasia is identified in the wintertime surface air temperatures of the latest ECMWF reanalysis. This cooling is related to extreme warming around the Kara Sea through changes in the meridional temperature gradient. Surface temperatures in the Arctic have risen faster than those at lower latitudes, and as the Arctic warming increases, this north–south temperature gradient is weakened. This change in the meridional temperature gradient causes a decrease in the westerly winds that help maintain the mild European climate by transporting heat from the Atlantic. Since decreasing sea ice concentrations have been shown to be a driving factor in Arctic amplification, a singular value decomposition analysis is used to confirm the co-variability of the Arctic sea ice, including the Kara Sea, and the temperatures over the mid-latitude Eurasia. These findings suggest that decreasing sea ice concentrations can change the meridional temperature gradient and hence the large-scale atmospheric flow of the Northern Hemisphere.


http://www.springerlink.com/content/245682l4416qh q7g/
Quoting Neapolitan:
Fair enough. Now, there have been millions of observations made in a myriad of areas, and numerous independent bits of research done along multiple lines of investigation. There have been thousands of peer-reviewed articles published, and more than a century of empirical evidence to bolster the theory that the planet's warming due to fossil-fuel emissions and deforestation. My question, then, is this: how much more would be needed to convince you?


Another decade or two's worth of data should suffice. There has only been about 75 years worth of solid, consistent observations, and to me that is too small of a sample set to base a conclusion off of.
"At least nine people were killed in a string of crashes involving about 20 vehicles on the northbound and southbound sides of Interstate 75 south of Gainesville early Sunday, when smoke from a wildfire on Paynes Prairie reduced visibility to nearly nothing on the highway."

Link

Another thorn in the side:

Link
Quoting WxGeekVA:


6 days out, and still showing a snowstorm. The hype begins....


NYC snow or interior?
Welcome to year AI-1

2045 - SINGULARITY SCENARIO
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


NYC snow or interior?


Both are possible, too early to tell though...
Quoting Patrap:
Welcome to year AI-1

2045 - SINGULARITY SCENARIO
WOW!
Quoting ColdInFL:
Another thorn in the side:

Link


"One event that was not canceled was the Running Club North%u2019s Chilly Buns Mid-Winter Run near the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Five people ran the 6.5 mile race, with a temperature of 49 below zero recorded at start time."

Wow!
Quoting scott39:
WOW!


Im sure that may be one expletive we use, but definitely, were on the cusp of some very large change,...


"Texas and Louisiana have introduced education standards that require educators to teach climate change denial as a valid scientific position. South Dakota and Utah passed resolutions denying climate change. Tennessee and Oklahoma also have introduced legislation to give climate change skeptics a place in the classroom."

"Through ALEC, behind closed doors, corporations hand state legislators the changes to the law they desire that directly benefit their bottom line. Along with legislators, corporations have membership in ALEC. Corporations sit on all nine ALEC task forces and vote with legislators to approve 'model' bills…Corporations fund almost all of ALEC's operations. Participating legislators, overwhelmingly conservative Republicans, then bring those proposals home and introduce them in statehouses across the land as their own brilliant ideas and important public policy innovations—without disclosing that corporations crafted and voted on the bills."


This is starting to make sense.. I've recently seen some public school material 1st-3rd grade pushing oil, oil rigs & such..

"Environmental Literacy Improvement Act"

The bill's opening clause reads [PDF], "The purpose of this act is to enhance and improve the environmental literacy of students and citizens in the state by requiring that all environmental education programs and activities conducted by schools, universities, and agencies shall…"

Among other things, the bill stipulates that schools, universities and agencies should,

* "Provide a range of perspectives presented in a balanced manner."
* "Provide instruction in critical thinking so that students will be able to fairly and objectively evaluate scientific and economic controversies."
* "Be presented in language appropriate for education rather than for propagandizing."
* "Encourage students to explore different perspectives and form their own opinions."
* "Encourage an atmosphere of respect for different opinions and open-mindedness to new ideas."
* "Not be designed to change student behavior, attitudes or values."
* "Not include instruction in political action skills nor encourage political action activities."


All sorts of more about this topic here..


The Law of Accelerating Returns
March 7, 2001 by Ray Kurzweil

An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). The “returns,” such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.
A few of my family members still doubt GW and one of them just posted this article on FB saying we're headed for a mini ice age. Ridiculous. Can someone help me debunk this article?

Link
Quoting ColdInFL:
Another thorn in the side:

Link
It's only a "thorn" for those who believe it's unusual for Alaska to experience prolonged subzero temperatures in January.
Quoting 21Jake:
A few of my family members still doubt GW and one of them just posted this article on FB saying we're headed for a mini ice age. Ridiculous. Can someone help me debunk this article?

Link
Please see comments #511 and #512.
Is there enough humanity left... to save this Earth? Im not feeling it....thats why I dont put my faith in human beings. Everyone go out and enjoy your day, see you back in June.
Quoting Patrap:
Welcome to year AI-1

2045 - SINGULARITY SCENARIO


Terahertz class photonic and spintronic processors with molecular scale transistor gates are only about 10 to 15 years away.

Borg-style, atomically precise nano-machines for medicine and manufacturing are maybe 30 years away.
OVERVIEW
What is the Singularity?



Some of the stronger Singularity technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence and brain-computer interfaces, offer the possibility of faster intelligence as well as smarter intelligence. Ultimately, speeding up intelligence is probably comparatively unimportant next to creating better intelligence; nonetheless the potential differences in speed are worth mentioning because they are so huge. Human neurons operate by sending electrochemical signals that propagate at a top speed of 150 meters per second along the fastest neurons. By comparison, the speed of light is 300,000,000 meters per second, two million times greater. Similarly, most human neurons can spike a maximum of 200 times per second; even this may overstate the information-processing capability of neurons, since most modern theories of neural information-processing call for information to be carried by the frequency of the spike train rather than individual signals. By comparison, speeds in modern computer chips are currently at around 2GHz a ten millionfold difference and still increasing exponentially. At the very least it should be physically possible to achieve a million-to-one speedup in thinking, at which rate a subjective year would pass in 31 physical seconds. At this rate the entire subjective timespan from Socrates in ancient Greece to modern-day humanity would pass in under twenty-two hours.
Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again)

Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years



This should put a few of the GW fanatics out of business for awhile.

Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning everyone, After reading your post Dr. Masters, I can feel your concern for this planet. I always focus on the climate on where I live and loose focus on the planet as a whole. Your posts here on Wunderground helps put my focus back on our planet. I have a couple of questions concerning Climate change? I really dont know what to believe, so im trying to make an informed decision for myself. 1)Is there a way to prove that man-made gases are the main culprit in modern day climate changes? And if so, what has me confused the most is....how do scientists know for sure....due to the fact that the Earth has been here for thousands, and most scientists believe millions of years. They also believe that the Earth went through many changes climatology speaking over those millions of years. Which the last statement brings me no comfort either, because man or no-man made.... millions of years ago, wasnt a pleasant expierence. You have probably explained all this before and I missed it. If you have,then hopefully you can post something again on it soon. Anyone else on here this morning that can give some info on the questions I have asked....my mind is clear and I have my glasses on. Thanks Scott


Good afternoon, Scott. I see some of the other folks on here, they are tremendous resources in themselves, have been recommending different sources. If you want to go all the way and have the time and a reasonable internet connection, consider Dr. David Archer's online course from the University of Chicago, Open Climate 101.

Read more about it at Link or go straight to the site.

Link

Welcome aboard and best of luck with your studies.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again)

Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years



This should put a few of the GW fanatics out of business for awhile.

Denialists have been dishonestly and disingenuously using the anomalously hot El Nino year of 1998 for many years now to "prove" that the planet isn't warming; of course if one begins a time series by cherry-picking an outlier, they can fool the gullible and uninformed into believing whatever they wish. But those who follow the science know better; please see Figure 3 from above:

uh-oh
Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.


How to stop robots from killing us

Well, he's right, but there's a problem.

It would take an extremely intelligent, borderline self-aware chip to be smart enough to realize the robot's thoughts have become murderous in time to shut them off.

After all, the backup chip needs to be smart enough to analize the entire thought process of the "robot" and search and sort everything continuously to find and prevent it's evil intentions. So the backup chip may actually need to be as smart or SMARTER than the actual robot, which then becomes problematic, because the backup chip may also become self aware and potentially evil.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Both are possible, too early to tell though...


i doubt it will verify.
This should put a few of the GW fanatics out of business for awhile.


One would think a learned society can recognize the importance of the Dire situation we find ourselves in.
A Solar peak isnt going to tip the balance of AGW.

Those cycles have resonated all along since the Industrial Revolution,,and a single Solar year Peak or uptick in Solar Max output, would only add to the AGW induced warming.Only in a minimal way at best.

So either way, this mode of thinking is reactionary as to ones ideology, which instantly poisons one's thought process.

And the end result that Logic clearly shows us.

Quoting Skyepony:

The NASA Video:-
With some difficulty I slowed it down as it goes a bit too fast to take the information in properly.
If you watch from about 1985 there appears 2 cells of heat in the west of Canada and the center of the USSR. These cells persist and expand to cover the whole of the Northern regions. they also seem to increase in intensity, which I take to mean the heat anomaly is increasing.
I just find it interesting that these particular 2 areas are attracting such a large increase. The plant and animal species of these areas are probably ill adapted to cope with these changes especially if they become effectively permanent.
Quoting 21Jake:
A few of my family members still doubt GW and one of them just posted this article on FB saying we're headed for a mini ice age. Ridiculous. Can someone help me debunk this article?

Link


i think your family members are right :D
533:

No, you are interpreting that incorrectly.

Air temperature and SST alone do not measure total heat content.

The heat of fusion and heat of vaporization for phase transitions hide an enormous amount of net heat gain from the "Temperature" that a thermometer measures.
And how does one "define a AGW Fanatic"?


One who believes the empirical evidence, or one that just "disagree's with your illogical assessment of the Situ ?


Your thinking is a tad askew toward innuendo and ego.

Hockey will do dat seems. : )

Quoting Neapolitan:
have been dishonestly and disingenuously using the anomalously


I know I am quoting a very small section of you post... but it is actually the most important part.

Both sides of the equation have been guilty of this very fact

"have been dishonestly and disingenuously using the anomalously"

Anything that does not fit into either sides story is mysteriously ignored..
Solar activity events recorded in radiocarbon for the last 1100 years.
520 Patrap "Welcome to year AI-1 ... 2045 - SINGULARITY SCENARIO"

Colossus: The Forbin Project
Yeesh, ya'd think that the Singularity folks could at least come up with better audio and video effects than a film shot 44years ago. I mean c'mon... we already got SIRI.
Quoting SPLbeater:


i think your family members are right :D
I thought you said the subject on ice did not hold your interests SPL.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Scientists find bacteria resistant to nearly all antibiotics in Antarctica sea water

Posted on January 29, 2012
January 29, 2012 – ANTARTICA – Bacteria that can resist nearly all antibiotics have been found in Antarctic seawater. Björn Olsen of Uppsala University in Sweden and colleagues took seawater samples between 10 and 300 meters away from Chile’s Antarctic research stations, Bernardo O’Higgins, Arturo Prat and Fildes Bay. A quarter of the samples of Escherichia coli bacteria carried genes that made an enzyme called ESBL, which can destroy penicillin, cephalosporins and related antibiotics. Bacteria with these genes can be even more dangerous than the better known superbug MRSA. That’s because the genes sit on a mobile chunk of DNA that can be acquired by many species of bacteria, increasing the incidence of drug-resistant infections such as the E. coli outbreak last year in Germany. The type of ESBL they found, called CTX-M, is common in bacteria in people, and the Uppsala study found that concentrations of resistant bacteria were higher close to the sewage outfalls from the stations. Some Antarctic stations started shipping out human feces for incineration after gut bacteria were found nearby. Chile’s research stations have virtually no sewage treatment in place, says Olsen. Recent work shows the bacteria may hang on to the genes for CTX-M even when no longer exposed to antibiotics, suggesting that superbugs can survive in the wild, with animals acting as a reservoir. Penguins near the Chilean stations have been checked and are free of ESBL, though Olsen is now looking at the area’s gulls as he has found ESBL-producing bugs in gulls in France. “If these genes are in Antarctica, it’s an indication of how far this [problem] has gone,” he says. –New Scientist


Scientists bewildered by mass migration of snowy owls from the Arctic
Posted on January 28, 2012
January 28, 2012 – SALMON, Idaho – Bird enthusiasts are reporting rising numbers of snowy owls from the Arctic winging into the lower 48 states this winter in a mass southern migration that a leading owl researcher called “unbelievable.” Thousands of the snow-white birds, which stand 2 feet tall with 5-foot wingspans, have been spotted from coast to coast, feeding in farmlands in Idaho, roosting on rooftops in Montana, gliding over golf courses in Missouri and soaring over shorelines in Massachusetts. A certain number of the iconic owls fly south from their Arctic breeding grounds each winter but rarely do so many venture so far away even amid large-scale, periodic southern migrations known as irruptions. “What we’re seeing now — it’s unbelievable,” said Denver Holt, head of the Owl Research Institute in Montana. “This is the most significant wildlife event in decades,” added Holt, who has studied snowy owls in their Arctic tundra ecosystem for two decades. Holt and other owl experts say the phenomenon is likely linked to lemmings, a rodent that accounts for 90 percent of the diet of snowy owls during breeding months that stretch from May into September. The largely nocturnal birds also prey on a host of other animals, from voles to geese. An especially plentiful supply of lemmings last season likely led to a population boom among owls that resulted in each breeding pair hatching as many as seven offspring.


Antibiotic-resistent bacteria under ice mean one thing: when large ice sheets begin to melt, there is a new pandemic threat from bacteria and viruses dormant for millennia.
Quoting hydrus:
Solar activity events recorded in radiocarbon for the last 1100 years.


if they could record solar activity for the last 1,000 years...why didnt they keep weather records too? .........
Quoting hydrus:
I thought you said the subject on ice did not hold your interests SPL.


it dont...unless its crawling significantly south and invading my beach area lol.
.retal kcab eb yrgnuh m'i kO
So much for the Home schooling methods of finding info on one's own...

Glad to see you got dat important backwards spelling down, it may become useful in Fla Politics if the recent past is any indicator.



Anyone wanna talk about Florida's hurricane drought and how that has contribute to drought their?.
533 Orcasystems "Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again)"

Aw man... twice on the same page?
511 quoting 206 aspectre : Decline in solar output unlikely to offset global warming
Excluding GlobalWarming due to excess greenhouse gases, "...if solar output [were] reduced below that seen in the Maunder Minimum - a period between 1645 and 1715 when solar activity was at its lowest observed level - the global temperature reduction would be 0.13C" by 2100
HOWEVER, "This compares to an expected warming of about 2.5degreesCelsius over the same period due to greenhouse gases."
The slowing of Thermohaline Circulation could have been interrupted by the introduction of a large amount of fresh water into the North Atlantic, possibly caused by a period of warming before the Little Ice Age known as the Medieval Warm Period. There is some concern that a shutdown of thermohaline circulation could happen again as a result of the present warming period.Wiki.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again)

Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years



This should put a few of the GW fanatics out of business for awhile.

And I would not be surprised if this played a big roll in it...
Quoting SPLbeater:


it dont...unless its crawling significantly south and invading my beach area lol.


Well, don't you realize that warming will cause the water to crawl inland and invade your beach area?

You realize that even the conservative projections for Sea Level rise over the next century will pretty much demolish most coastal towns and cities, in some cases totally inundating them?

Long Island
New York City
Atlantic City
Miami
Tampa Bay
Key West
Galveston
Corpus Christi

The entire Louisiana coastline, from inside lakes Maurepas and Ponchartrain, all the way around Plaquemines, and back around to Sabine pass.

Florida? Much of the Everglades will be totally, permanently submerged by salt water.

We're talking local extinction events for entire species, even under the conservative scenarios.

The Federal, State, and Local governments have absolutely no plan for any of this.

Most of them totally ignore this scenario in any of their planning, as if it doesn't exist.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I know I am quoting a very small section of you post... but it is actually the most important part.

Both sides of the equation have been guilty of this very fact

"have been dishonestly and disingenuously using the anomalously"

Anything that does not fit into either sides story is mysteriously ignored..
No; a person would have to be almost completely unaware of the science to believe such an equivalence exists. I'm not saying every climate change skeptic has lied, nor am I saying no climate change theory supporter ever has. But the empirical scientific evidence is clearly and overwhelmingly leaning in one direction, and one direction only; those disputing those scientific findings have had to increasingly rely on lies and distortions--such as today's bit of rubbish in the Mail--to bolster their side.
Off topic for off season: What the heck are M&Ms made of? The "chocolate" won't dissolve in boiling water, or even fully melt.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Please see comments #511 and #512.


Thanks so much. That one quote basically just stated his whole article was a bunch of loud noise lol.
Quoting Neapolitan:
No; a person would have to be almost completely unaware of the science to believe such an equivalence exists. I'm not saying every climate change skeptic has lied, nor am I saying no climate change theory supporter ever has. But the empirical scientific evidence is clearly and overwhelmingly leaning in one direction, and one direction only; those disputing those scientific findings have had to increasingly rely on lies and distortions--such as today's bit of rubbish in the Mail--to bolster their side.


Your aware of my stance on the whole subject... we are part of the equation... but I do not believe we are the main factor.. in the equation.

I just hear rubbish from both sides...and some with such fanatical zeal that it is totally ignored.

I would say we may be responsible for about 20% (personal opinion, don't shoot me) and natural causes are responsible for about 80%.

If we changed out 20% would it change anything... I highly doubt it. The earths temperatures have changed dramatically over the life cycle of the planet... and they will continue to do so.
Quoting Patrap:
Welcome to year AI-1

2045 - SINGULARITY SCENARIO


A new Saviour, this time a computer. A computer that becomes the most powerful, that maintains the hierarchy, that requires we follow on the path to the door with "Salvation" painted on it. Behind the door is the same abyss. It's same path just a different leader. In our day logical, but unnecessary.

Our saviour is inside ourselves but covered with our culture's garbage. We are human, we know how to live in peace with the world. We did for 90,000 years before this power-crazed culture emerged. Abandon the hierarchy, reduce your needs, discern a new vision, a new path, and salvation will come from the only true source, your own heart and mind.

Enough said. Good luck.
the one greastest single event yet to occur will be the tipping point of no rtn that will be when the water floats the cap that is greenland and causes a massive sheet slide into the sea if it slides towards NA its land lock will take time for the effect if slides towards europe the effect will be rapid

Quoting Orcasystems:


Your aware of my stance on the whole subject... we are part of the equation... but I do not believe we are the main factor.. in the equation.

I just hear rubbish from both sides...and some with such fanatical zeal that it is totally ignored.

I would say we may be responsible for about 20% (personal opinion, don't shoot me) and natural causes are responsible for about 80%.

If we changed out 20% would it change anything... I highly doubt it. The earths temperatures have changed dramatically over the life cycle of the planet... and they will continue to do so.
You're certainly entitled to your opinion, of course, so no shots need be fired. ;-) But actual climate scientists believe anywhere from three-quarters to every bit of the recent observed warming is due to deforestation and anthropogenic CO2.
562 KEEPEROFTHEGATE "The one greatest single event yet to occur will be the tipping point of no rtn. That will be when the water floats the cap that is Greenland and causes a massive sheet slide into the sea."

Ain't gonna happen. Most of the icesheet is firmly landlocked by surrounding bed rock.

Be about like thick oatmeal climbing outta a bowl.
Link Some of you all need to take a break .
Quoting percylives:


A new Saviour, this time a computer. A computer that becomes the most powerful, that maintains the hierarchy, that requires we follow on the path to the door with "Salvation" painted on it. Behind the door is the same abyss. It's same path just a different leader. In our day logical, but unnecessary.

Our saviour is inside ourselves but covered with our culture's garbage. We are human, we know how to live in peace with the world. We did for 90,000 years before this power-crazed culture emerged. Abandon the hierarchy, reduce your needs, discern a new vision, a new path, and salvation will come from the only true source, your own heart and mind.

Enough said. Good luck.
I thought our souls, fate and destiny had already been establish when created by the Flyin Spaghetti Monster at the beginning of time....dammitt.
Quoting aspectre:
562 KEEPEROFTHEGATE "The one greatest single event yet to occur will be the tipping point of no rtn. That will be when the water floats the cap that is Greenland and causes a massive sheet slide into the sea."

Ain't gonna happen. Most of the icesheet is firmly landlocked by surrounding bed rock.

Be about like thick oatmeal climbing outta a bowl.
not if the water lifts it up from within it will slide like butter on a hot knife maybe not a single one time event but sections one right after another remember all the melt water is going right under the ice filling up the cavern below and with it comes the ice and water show
Quoting Patrap:
So much for the Home schooling methods of finding info on one's own...

Glad to see you got dat important backwards spelling down, it may become useful in Fla Politics if the recent past is any indicator.





I dont want anything to do with politics. the only time i get involved there is during election periods.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Link Some of you all need to take a break .


I just started my break with Jason Derulo xD
I'll still freeze to death with my 3 blankets
Quoting SPLbeater:


I dont want anything to do with politics. the only time i get involved there is during election periods.

A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore.

Always go to other people's funerals, otherwise they won't come to yours.

Baseball is ninety percent mental and the other half is physical.

Congratulations. I knew the record would stand until it was broken.

Even Napoleon had his Watergate.

Half the lies they tell about me aren't true.

He hits from both sides of the plate. He's amphibious.

How can you think and hit at the same time?

I always thought that record would stand until it was broken.

I just want to thank everyone who made this day necessary.

--name the person who said that.

Edit: And he [first quote] says he is not old enough to vote. LOL
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I'll still freeze to death with my 3 blankets


0.o


I did notice how cold it is up there. Fairbanks is in my favorites list, and its reading -50!
I never said most of the things I said.

I think Little League is wonderful. It keeps the kids out of the house.

I wish I had an answer to that because I'm tired of answering that question.

I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did.

If people don't want to come out to the ball park, nobody's gonna stop 'em.

If the world was perfect, it wouldn't be.

If you ask me anything I don't know, I'm not going to answer.

--some more wisdom in these quotes.
Quoting scott39:
Is there enough humanity left... to save this Earth? Im not feeling it....thats why I dont put my faith in human beings. Everyone go out and enjoy your day, see you back in June.


There's nothing wrong with the Earth. The Earth is just fine. It's been here for 4.5 billion years and will be here for a few billion more.

We, on the other, are screwed.
I think that the SW Pacific might get a named storm before too long


What is Cyclone Iggy doing

567 washingtonian115 "Link [to YouTube] Some of you all need to take a break."

Did, and wouldn'tcha know, the top right link led to a typical AGW discussion.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again)

Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years



This should put a few of the GW fanatics out of business for awhile.



Orca, you're a smart person. When it comes to tropics, you rank near the top. But when you link to the Daily Mail as a reputable source of information it shoots your entire case through the head.

There is no reputable climate science site making any such claims as the ones you or that article make. And you can bet climate scientist are more than smart enough to account for solar activity in their projections.
There are some people who, if they don't already know, you can't tell 'em.

Yogi Berra
Alaska dispatch:  Arctic policy nerds and Far North students of all kinds, prepare to get your geek on ... According to the Barents Observer,
the library of Norway's University of Tromsø has collected a registry
of thousands of research documents that concern the High North -- and
has made it available online free of charge.
The searchable collection, called "High North Research Documents," features all sorts of writing and images from around the world concerning topics important in the circumpolar North.
The documents are written in many different languages, but the
majority of them are in English, the library announced in a press
release.
"This will be a very useful service for anyone interested in the High
North, be it journalists, decision makers in business and public
administration, politicians, NGOs, students and researchers," says
academic librarian Leif Longva at the University of Tromsø.
At its launch, the website contained records of nearly 100,000
documents, but its administrators intend for it to be dynamic and
ever-growing. Nearly 10,000 of the items pertain directly to Alaska.
Read more, here, and look up your favorite research topic, here.
Quoting SPLbeater:


0.o


I did notice how cold it is up there. Fairbanks is in my favorites list, and its reading -50!


I read -60 today in the morning for Bettles, AK
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Are there any current plans to construct a dyke across the Straits of Hormuz.
Most of those building in the Video seem to be about 6 foot above Persian Gulf level.
Quoting PlazaRed:
We might end up with a dramatic change in the whole Northern Hemisphere weather patterns? Maybe we have already got that now!



At least one paper presentation I sat in on at the AMS 2012 meeting suggests that we are already there and hypothetical changes to the atmospheric circulation from Arctic melting are already observable.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


At least one paper presentation I sat in on at the AMS 2012 meeting suggests that we are already there and hypothetical changes to the atmospheric circulation from Arctic melting are already observable.


point of no return
... --- ...
Quoting ScottLincoln:


At least one paper presentation I sat in on at the AMS 2012 meeting suggests that we are already there and hypothetical changes to the atmospheric circulation from Arctic melting are already observable.


Was that paper by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers? I skipped AMS this year, but caught her talk at AGU.

Jeff Masters
Quoting MrMarcus:
Not surprisingly, everyone in the scientific community isn't in agreement on this 'dire' set of predictions...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-20 93264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-N ASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html


A sceptical scientist need not read much beyond the first few sentences to end up with grave concerns for the accuracy of the stated information.

The "hasn't warmed in [5/10/15/etc] years" and the "won't warm for [15yrs/2 decades] claims have been around for some time. Both of them may be based in something truthful but are misleading at a minimum and downright conjured & actively dishonest at worst.

Were you able to double-check this information against a UK Met Office source itself?
Quoting PlazaRed:
We might end up with a dramatic change in the whole Northern Hemisphere weather patterns? Maybe we have already got that now!

everything changes nothing stays the same its time has come
Quoting Neapolitan:
You're certainly entitled to your opinion, of course, so no shots need be fired. ;-) But actual climate scientists believe anywhere from three-quarters to every bit of the recent observed warming is due to deforestation and anthropogenic CO2.


It's actually more like 70-120%

How can it be greater than 100%, you ask? Numerous factors including sulphate cooling and biosphere carbon sinks have reduced the warming more than expected.
this is a whole new frontier when it comes to weather we are going to see things we have never seen before,we already have seen things we never seen before
593. G8GT
May I call your attention to the 800 pound Gorilla in the room?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-20 93264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-N ASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html
The atmosphere, it's where the Dynamics of Fluid resides, and having the Earth's Cyclone's reminds us of it, and it's Powerful Potential made real by it.



The 4% increase in WV is a primer, wait till the WV expands that number, exponentially.
Quoting JeffMasters:


Was that paper by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers? I skipped AMS this year, but caught her talk at AGU.

Jeff Masters


I believe it was a Dr. Frances from Rutgers, but don't remember the first name. I spoke with her after her talk. It sounded like she was not sure she believed the link between more negative AO and reduced ice cover, but her hypothesis was that a slowing of the longwave jet pattern would increase the amplitude of troughs/ridges, thus slowing down the forward motion of Rossby waves. With more sustained, intense ridging and troughing, weather patterns are more likely to stagnate, contributing to more prolonged droughts, floods, cold spells, and heat waves. They then tested this hypothesis and discovered that it already appeared to be occurring.
Quoting aspectre:Ain't gonna happen. Most of the icesheet is firmly landlocked by surrounding bed rock.

Be about like thick oatmeal climbing outta a bowl.


...research "glacial rebound." The being "surrounded by bedrock" can change as the ice cap changes.
Well since everyone on here are making post about humanity's impending doom and gloom then I'll say Florida will have to watch out for this years hurricane season.
Attribution of Seasonal and Regional Changes in Arctic Moisture Convergence


NATASA SKIFIC
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey

JENNIFER A. FRANCIS
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, New Jersey

JOHN J. CASSANO
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado
(Manuscript received 5 September 2008, in final form 23 April 2009)


ABSTRACT

Spatial and temporal changes in high-latitude moisture convergence simulated by the National Center for
Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) are investigated. Moisture
convergence is calculated using the aerological method with model fields of specific humidity and winds
spanning the periods from 1960 to 1999 and 2070 to 2089. The twenty-first century incorporates the A2 scenario
from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The model’s realism in reproducing the twentieth-century
moisture convergence is evaluated by comparison with values derived from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis
(ERA-40). In the area north of 758N, the simulated moisture convergence is similar to observations during
summer, but it is larger in winter, spring, and autumn. The model also underestimates (overestimates) the
mean annual moisture convergence in the eastern (western) Arctic. Late twenty-first century annual, seasonal, and regional changes are determined by applying a self-organizing map technique to the model’s sea
level pressure fields to identify dominant atmospheric circulation regimes and their corresponding moisture
convergence fields. Changes in moisture convergence from the twentieth to the twenty-first century result
primarily from thermodynamic effects (;70%), albeit shifts in the frequency of dominant circulation patterns
exert a relatively large influence on future changes in the eastern Arctic. Increased moisture convergence in
the central Arctic (North Atlantic) stems mainly from thermodynamic changes in summer (winter). Changes
in the strength and location of poleward moisture gradients are most likely responsible for projected variations in moisture transport, which are in turn a consequence of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions as prescribed by the A2 scenario
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well since everyone on here are making post about humanity's impending doom and gloom then I'll say Florida will have to watch out for this years hurricane season.


It's not a conversation about doom until there is a loop of an explosively intensifying cyclone! :D

597. washingtonian115 8:30 PM GMT on January 29, 2012 0
Well since everyone on here are making post about humanity's impending doom and gloom then I'll say Florida will have to watch out for this years hurricane season.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 4138


Quoting yqt1001:


It's not a conversation about doom until there is a loop of an explosively intensifying cyclone! :D

if the pattern holds that we have been seeing the last few seasons well ya might just luck out again we shall see
These are the current temperatures around the UAF campus. We are covered in ice fog as well.

Quoting Levi32:
These are the current temperatures around the UAF campus. We are covered in ice fog as well.

how goes it frozen friend in the land of snow and cold
Quoting ScottLincoln:


...research "glacial rebound." The being "surrounded by bedrock" can change as the ice cap changes.

Rebound of bedrock happens much more slowly than ice melting. Rebound is still going on from the last ice age.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


At least one paper presentation I sat in on at the AMS 2012 meeting suggests that we are already there and hypothetical changes to the atmospheric circulation from Arctic melting are already observable.

I used to be an optimist. That was about half a century ago when all we had to do was keep on living life to the full and rebuilding the perfect world from the bombed ruins of Leeds and Manchester where I grew up in.
Now I am a realist and with decades of engineering history and a bit of experience, I have to ask myself and sometimes others, "where on Earth are we going?"
Keeper put up that video of the Dubai 2020 thing and it makes me wonder, "Who's going to carry the can,"( in reality they will need more than a can to bale out that lot.) If I was a part of a design team that proposed something like that I would expect to be professionally "decommissioned," in light of what are; even accepted global warming threats, let alone the ones they don't want to talk about!
I accept that a body floats when it displaces its own weight of water,so the Greenland ice cap has a while to go before it floats out to sea as a whole or in bits but the laws of our physics state that, if you add heat ice melts and to every action there is a reaction.
This movie is not a romance, its a tragedy!
606. wxmod
Lower Ganges River Watershed today. Himalaya is at the top.
Quoting yqt1001:


It's not a conversation about doom until there is a loop of an explosively intensifying cyclone! :D

Which one was that?.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I read -60 today in the morning for Bettles, AK


WOW. you must need about 7 blankets at night, and a super heating system lol. stay warm.
Quoting Patrap:
The atmosphere, it's where the Dynamics of Fluid resides, and having the Earth's Cyclone's reminds us of it, and it's Powerful Potential made real by it.



The 4% increase in WV is a primer, wait till the WV expands that number, exponentially.


Do you enjoy posting things multiple times of the same thing, or do you get bored er what?
Quoting bappit:

Rebound of bedrock happens much more slowly than ice melting. Rebound is still going on from the last ice age.
The Great Lakes region is a prime example.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Which one was that?.


Cyclone SPLbeater
Do you enjoy posting things multiple times of the same thing, or do you get bored er what?

Actually I do it to just drive you nutz.

Which, is easily done judging by your er, ego'd response.

We also enjoy you talking to yourself here,,

Anything else?

psst, look over your right shoulder and tell me what you observe.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It's actually more like 70-120%

How can it be greater than 100%, you ask? Numerous factors including sulphate cooling and biosphere carbon sinks have reduced the warming more than expected.
I was referring specifically to the December article in Nature Geoscience that stated that at least 74 percent of the current observed warming is due to human activity (and that it is extremely unlikely--less than a five percent chance--that the observed trends are due to natural variability). For what it's worth, I tend to agree with the figure cited by Gavin Schmidt:

"Over the last 40 or so years, natural drivers would have caused cooling, and so the warming there has been … is caused by a combination of human drivers and some degree of internal variability. I would judge the maximum amplitude of the internal variability to be roughly 0.1 deg C over that time period, and so given the warming of ~0.5 deg C, I’d say somewhere between 80 to 120% of the warming. Slightly larger range if you want a large range for the internal stuff."

--which I assume is the source of the number you cited.
613. wxmod
Eastern China Today

Climate Model Indications and the Observed Climate



Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change
Why is Florida the only state with a freeze warning? of all states...northern florida..
Quoting Patrap:
Do you enjoy posting things multiple times of the same thing, or do you get bored er what?

Actually I do it to just drive you nutz.

Which, is easily done judging by your er, ego'd response.

We also enjoy you talking to yourself here,,

Anything else?

psst, look over your right shoulder and tell me what you observe.


it wouldnt seem like i talk to myself if my questions would be answred when i ask.

606. wxmod
613. wxmod
Those 2 images you posted look like they contain an awful lot of atmospheric pollution.
Can anybody confirm this?
Well I got to go. settin up for family night at church, gon watch movie "Courageous" and have grilled cheeses, chili and all that good stuff.

!enoyreve doog eB
Quoting washingtonian115:
Which one was that?.


Ului from the SPac season 2009-10.
621. wxmod
In case you're wondering what post 613 looks like on the ground, here are 2 views from today.


I heard some economist said that China was the best run country in the world. It looks like they will all be dead pretty soon. PS: I copied these today from what appeared to be a live cam, but the dates don't match up. Not many web cams to choose from in China.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #25
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
3:00 AM WST January 30 2012
=================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (977 hPa) located at 20.0S 111.4E or 355 km northwest of Exmouth and 590 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
90 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Iggy is expected to continue to move very slowly this morning before taking a more southwesterly track during Monday afternoon.

It is possible that Tropical Cyclone Iggy may move close enough to the coast to cause a period of gales between Exmouth and Coral Bay. Destructive winds are not expected. Gales are not expected to occur between Coral Bay and Carnarvon.

Tides will be higher than expected along the upper west coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Onslow to Coral Bay, including Exmouth.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 20.6S 111.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.2S 110.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 23.6S 107.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 26.1S 107.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been located by a combination of microwave imagery and ASCAT. Although shear remains low, there has been little sign of intensification. FT number remains at 3.0 based on wrap averaging 0.6-0.7 on images since 0530Z. MET and PAT have generally been around 3.0, and although the latest image could be classified as 3.5, FT and CI is held at 3.0. CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate at 09Z indicated 61 knots 1-min, although previous estimates were a fair bit lower than this. ADT is now at 56 knots 1-min and SATCON 59 knots 1-min. Final intensity estimate is held at 45 knots 10-min mean, which is supported by a 1440Z ASCAT pass which showed no winds above 40 knots around the system.

The lack of development may also be hindered by Iggy's lack of movement, meaning the system remains over the cooler water it has upwelled. Satellite imagery shows a deck of stratocumulus to the SW indicating a stable maritime boundary layer unfavorable for development.

It is possible that Iggy may re-intensify slightly over the next few hours in the diurnally favorable period, but in the longer term it is unlikely that Iggy will significantly intensify, contrary to some model guidance. By Tuesday the system will be moving over much cooler sea surface temperature and may be experiencing stronger wind shear.

TC Iggy has remained near stationary over the last 24 hours but a southwest movement is expected to begin soon. The system should then track southwest away from the coast and weaken below cyclone strength offshore in about 2 to 3 days. It is possible the remnants of Iggy may move back towards the west coast later in the week but it is very unlikely that Iggy would still be a cyclone at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..
Love it.

The WEather Channel just said they expect that winter wasn't gone, that it's just late. They expect it to be cold in February and March.

Ham Weather shows most of the U.S. being above average for February, and about half the nation being above average for the next 3 months.

February Outlooks


Is it just me?

Seems like they are trying to find an excuse to hype winter in a year with no winter.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Love it.

The WEather Channel just said they expect that winter wasn't gone, that it's just late. They expect it to be cold in February and March.

Ham Weather shows most of the U.S. being above average for February, and about half the nation being above average for the next 3 months.

February Outlooks


Is it just me?

Seems like they are trying to find an excuse to hype winter in a year with no winter.
move along everything is abnormally normal
Seems like they are trying to find an excuse to hype winter in a year with no winter.

Most Humans are way to busy with their novel connectivity to even notice Winter is MIA in the Populated lower 48.

Plus, the eons of programming has conditioned the mind to reject such a notion, we look away and excuse it with a mere moment.

And the controlling ones in Leadership Worldwide are very concerned with the rapid Global Free for all that is here, and increasing.

Last week a 11 meter, or 33 ft Meteor passed within 60,000 miles of us with very lil warning.

Expect the collective conscience to become aware of what's occurring soon, but million's world wide are on to something coming..just out of sight, over the near horizon.

Can you imagine if the middle of Summer was 25 degree's below normal, in the plains, as it is above now, RUSH and the right would be screaming, SEE, SEE no GW..it's COLD in Summer!!.


Phunny u dont here a peep outta dem with the winter avg's running 25 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.


Go fig yah', eh?


Short Range Public Discussion

(Latest Discussion - Issued 2006Z Jan 28, 2012)





SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
306 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

VALID 00Z SUN JAN 29 2012 - 00Z TUE JAN 31 2012

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...





A FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH A VARY MODEST SUPPLE OF MOISTURE ... ONLY
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.




ANOTHER WEAK FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ROTATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY EVENING THEN OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT ... THEN OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. LIKEWISE ... BEHIND THIS FRONT ... HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
MONDAY.




ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST ... STARTING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION ... LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE STORM ... ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN PRODUCING LIGHT
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY MORNING.




ELSEWHERE ... AN OLD BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA
WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.





ZIEGENFELDER
Quoting Levi32:
These are the current temperatures around the UAF campus. We are covered in ice fog as well.



That's a touch nippy. Seems like you guys got all the winter.
Quoting wxmod:
In case you're wondering what post 613 looks like on the ground, here are 2 views from today.


I heard some economist said that China was the best run country in the world. It looks like they will all be dead pretty soon. PS: I copied these today from what appeared to be a live cam, but the dates don't match up. Not many web cams to choose from in China.


Reminds me of those pictures in London from the early part of last century. Nothing like having your lungs encased in carbonite.

The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.

Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.
A painting, dated 1684, by Abraham Hondius depicts one of many frost fairs on the River Thames during the mini ice age

A painting, dated 1684, by Abraham Hondius depicts one of many frost fairs on the River Thames during the mini ice age

Meanwhile, leading climate scientists yesterday told The Mail on Sunday that, after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food.

Solar output goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak.

We are now at what should be the peak of what scientists call ‘Cycle 24’ – which is why last week’s solar storm resulted in sightings of the aurora borealis further south than usual. But sunspot numbers are running at less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the 20th Century.

Analysis by experts at NASA and the University of Arizona – derived from magnetic-field measurements 120,000 miles beneath the sun’s surface – suggest that Cycle 25, whose peak is due in 2022, will be a great deal weaker still.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-209 3264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-NA SA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html#ixz z1kt7SeLdq
hey i just realize feb has 29 days makes it a leap year
You know what comes next don't ya TM?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
You know what comes next don't ya TM?
Well, let's see. This is a public forum--that is, a place to discuss relevant items of interest. And trunkmonkey brought up--for at least the sixth time today--the hogwash article in the Mail. So my guess of what's next? Probably another response--at least the sixth one today. ;-)

Speaking of, here you go: http://bbickmore.wordpress.com/2012/01/29/the-dai ly-mail-prints-climate-nonsense/
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Reminds me of those pictures in London from the early part of last century. Nothing like having your lungs encased in carbonite.


The process has gotten alot betta dey say since Jabba Da Hut processed Hans Solo.

Moores Law and all ya know. : )
I just had a mental Image, with sound, of Newt singing Frank Sinatra's, .."Fly me to the Moon"..

I just thought I'd share, since it's Kum by ya Sunday here.
This is whats next..Hard to grow crops on dis.....Wuz Snowball Earth real.?...Probably...
Theory is that oxygen came from the snowball earth--ultraviolet light creating hydrogen peroxide from all the ice. The oxygen in turn allowed a more energetic metabolism to evolve and in turn more rapid evolution. Before that we were just slime in the ice machine.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
602 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 602 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WITH HEAVY SNOW... OVER SPARLAND...OR
ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LACON...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HENRY
LACON
VARNA
TOLUCA
WENONA

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DANGEROUS
STORM. GO TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. ABANDON CARS AND MOBILE HOMES IF YOU ARE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY STORM DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL ESDA...OR THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
This is pretty obvious, but just pointing it out anyway.

One of the things I found interesting when looking at the Keeling Curve is that of course, nobody really mentions this, but the Keeling Curve actually has bifurcations all the time.

Keeling Curve Mauna Loa

Use the controls on the left to pick about a 20 year data set.

Pick any year from the left side of the data, and label it "year zero".

Now count 6 years to the right.

The annual maximum CO2 concentration in the Zeroth year will be less than the annual minimum CO2 concentration in the 6th year and every year thereafter.

And what about other locations?

Keeling Curve, Barrow Alaska

this is harder to see, because the natural annual variation is much larger.

Pick any year, label it year zero.

Count 12 years to the right and label it 12.

The annual maximum in the Zeroth year is less than the annual minimum in the 12th year and every year thereafter.

Of course, it also works in reverse, i.e. 2010 vs 1998.

Sea Ice Volume

Note that about 2/3rds of the net loss in arctic minimum sea ice volume happened between 1998 and 2010.

That's a difference of 12 years, and reflects how big a difference this Keeling Curve phenomenon really makes.

Someone else could pull up some SST comparisons and global mean atmospheric temperature comparisons.

So to my mind, this makes every 6th and 12th year in climatology important, because you're passing a benchmark where the weakest greenhouse effect day is stronger than the strongest day of the year used to be.

Note that at Mauna Loa, the CO2 peaks in Spring, and bottoms out in Autumn, but late summer, 11 days before Autumn, is actually the climatological minimum of sea ice volume, but the point being that the future greenhouse gas minimum 6 years out is worse than the current greenhouse gas maximum. Meh, hard to explain.

So anyway, if there's anything significant to this, then years like 2007 and 2010 become interesting due to their 2500km^3 down anomalies in Sea Ice.

If there's anything significant to my idea, then at 6 years and 12 years out, we should see significant parallels, which makes certain future years interesting benchmarks.

2013
2019

This is obviously not a predictor of specific behavior in a year, but rather the observation that the range of behavior in and beyond each of these benchmarks should be strictly worse climatologically, particularly after 2019.

2019 is the year where the CO2 minimum in the arctic should be higher than the CO2 maximum was in 2007.

2013 is the year where the CO2 minimum in the tropics should be higher than the CO2 maximum was in 2007.

2007 was very bad both for Atlantic hurricanes and for arctic sea ice melt.


Just something to chew on and try to wrap one's head around.
Quoting Levi32:
These are the current temperatures around the UAF campus. We are covered in ice fog as well.


Levi, why'd you steal our winter?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, let's see. This is a public forum--that is, a place to discuss relevant items of interest. And trunkmonkey brought up--for at least the sixth time today--the hogwash article in the Mail. So my guess of what's next? Probably another response--at least the sixth one today. ;-)

Speaking of, here you go: http://bbickmore.wordpress.com/2012/01/29/the-dai ly-mail-prints-climate-nonsense/


What's Bickmore degree in?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


What's Bickmore degree in?


From the blog's website comes the answer (requiring 3 seconds of web browsing, no more):

Barry Bickmore (blog administrator): Barry Bickmore is a geochemistry professor at Brigham Young University, an active Mormon, and an active Republican. From 2008-2010 he was a County Delegate for the Republican Party. Anything he posts here (obviously) represents his personal opinions, and does not necessarily reflect the position of his employer, Brigham Young University.

Looks like a cool down for south Fla. next weekend...



Wow I see Saul Alinsky's students are alive and well today, using his Rules for Radicals to discredit anything I say and publish, go commrades!
I kinda like CO2 makes my trees grow better, I love plants and trees!
National Radar Imagery looks a tad sparse...

Quoting Xyrus2000:


There's nothing wrong with the Earth. The Earth is just fine. It's been here for 4.5 billion years and will be here for a few billion more.

We, on the other, are screwed.
Should have waited on the June comment. I Got bored and was lurking when i saw this. I honestly Lol!
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
9:00 AM FST January 30 2012
======================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (999 hPa) located at 16.0S 167.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as drifting slowly southeast. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has improved slightly in the past 12 hours. Convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. System lies just east of an upper trough under an upper diffluent region in a moderate to high
Sheared environment. SST is around 29-30C. System expected to be steered southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly. Global models are gradually intensifying the system and move it southeast.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours in moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looks like a cool down for south Fla. next weekend...





Looks like nice warm weather for South Florida next weekend:

Quoting schistkicker:


From the blog's website comes the answer (requiring 3 seconds of web browsing, no more):

Barry Bickmore (blog administrator): Barry Bickmore is a geochemistry professor at Brigham Young University, an active Mormon, and an active Republican. From 2008-2010 he was a County Delegate for the Republican Party. Anything he posts here (obviously) represents his personal opinions, and does not necessarily reflect the position of his employer, Brigham Young University.



Man you're slow. Took me only two seconds.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Wow I see Saul Alinsky's students are alive and well today, using his Rules for Radicals to discredit anything I say and publish, go commrades!
Really? I only see one comment of yours in the last 50 to which anyone responded, and that wasn't anything you wrote, but rather the text of a denialist article from a tabloid that's been linked to half-a-dozen times already today, and responded to at least that many times.

Anyway, while accusing people who insist on telling the scientific truth of being socialists and communists is the last refuge of the desperate, can't we at least try to avoid such nonsensical accusations here? Please?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Levi, why'd you steal our winter?
Lol..If he can do that, He has learned a lot more about the weather than he is letting on. Usually its Keeper that decides winters fate down here....I believe that Mother Nature has a surprise in store for the eastern half.
Quoting SPLbeater:
Why is Florida the only state with a freeze warning? of all states...northern florida..


Freeze Warning criteria changes depending on the issuing NWS WFO. Some WFOs only issue it for the first freeze of the year, which signals the end of the growing season. Some WFOs in more mild areas will issue them for each freeze because the events tend to be rare.

I would imagine that Florida counts in the latter, and thus even with near record cold temperatures covering most of the CONUS, Florida would be one of the few places to have Freeze Warnings in effect.
Quoting Xandra:

The Daily Mail Prints Climate Nonsense

One of my students asked me about a new article just printed in The Daily Mail, a right-wing newspaper in the U.K. The article’s title is, “Forget global warming – it’s Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again)“. Here’s a rule of thumb for you. If you ever read anything about climate change in The Daily Mail, the odds are excellent that it’s nonsense. Anyway, here is what I told my student…



Always fascinates me how the climate confusionists and denialists can twist the truth. This one ranks near the top... take a press release that clearly indicates that solar activity lulls are unlikely to affect long term climate, and somehow manage to do a complete 180 on it.

That's not something you can do as an honest mistake, that is something you do when you are deliberately - and with malice - attempting to distort the truth and mislead people. This should serve as a lesson for those that fell for it, as long as they still want to maintain credibility as skeptical scientists or enthusiasts.
Very impressive! I wonder if this would become Sub Tropical.

16 Day GFS precip plot.



Global Warming very evident this year! Wouldn't be surprised if this year becomes the warmest every worldwide.
Sea Height Anomalies




Note the warm ring Loop Eddy in the Western GOM on the SSA map for this year 28 Jan.
Interesting tweet by JB regarding a future cold snap for the U.S.

Link
From Jeff Masters entry in 2010,


One bad result of the eddy breaking off is that now we have an extra source of heat energy for passing hurricanes during the upcoming hurricane season. Loop Current eddies have high-temperature water that extends to great depth, and hurricanes passing over such eddies often undergo rapid intensification. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 both underwent rapid intensification as they passed over warm Loop Current eddies in 2005. The formation of a Loop Current Eddy during hurricane season means that a much greater portion of the Gulf of Mexico has deep, warm water capable of fueling rapid intensification of hurricanes.
#666


JB,,the "anti-met" tweet ?

The 384 Hr GFS showed that days ago..
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #27
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
9:00 AM WST January 30 2012
=================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (977 hPa) located at 19.8S 110.6E or 435 km west northwest of Exmouth and 650 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
90 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Iggy which has been moving very slowly over the last 24 hours, has recently started moving to the west. With this recent westward movement, gales are no longer expected to affect mainland locations of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy is expected to take a southwest track over the next 48 hours, before weakening below cyclone intensity during Wednesday.

Tides, however, will be higher than expected along the upper west coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

The Cyclone WARNING from Onslow to Coral Bay has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 20.2S 110.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.2S 108.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 24.4S 107.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 26.6S 108.1E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been located by a combination of microwave imagery and enhance infrared. Although shear remains low, there has been little sign of intensification. DT remains at 3.0 based on wrap averaging 0.6, PAT agrees, so FT and CI is held at 3.0. CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate at 20Z indicated 57 knots 1-min, ADT is now at 51 knots 1-min and SATCON 57 knots 1-min, all showing a recent decreasing trend. Final intensity estimate remains at 45 knots 10-min mean.

TC Iggy has remained near stationary for much of the last 24 hours but a westerly movement has recently commenced. General consensus is for a southwesterly track over the next 48 hours, taking it over cooler waters with weakening expected. By late Tuesday and early Wednesday the system will be moving over much cooler sea surface temperature and may be experiencing stronger wind shear.

It is possible the remnants of Iggy may move back towards the west coast later in the week but it is very unlikely that Iggy would still be a cyclone at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Yowsa!!

Quoting Patrap:


658:

That would be completely nuts.

A named system on February 10...

Has anything like that ever happened in the past records?
Quoting hydrus:
Lol..If he can do that, He has learned a lot more about the weather than he is letting on. Usually its Keeper that decides winters fate down here....I believe that Mother Nature has a surprise in store for the eastern half.
don't worry she got a plan for sure we are to see it first hand
Quoting ScottLincoln:


That's not something you can do as an honest mistake, that is something you do when you are deliberately - and with malice - attempting to distort the truth and mislead people. This should serve as a lesson for those that fell for it, as long as they still want to maintain credibility as skeptical scientists or enthusiasts.

I don't think you can attribute malice on the part of the author with certainty. They may just be doing their job or are zealously after the lulz. (I hear it is important to enjoy your work.) Hard to say, but I agree it was deliberate.
Quoting RTSplayer:
658:

That would be completely nuts.

A named system on February 10...

Has anything like that ever happened in the past records?


Feb 2nd.
Jan 18th.

March and April storms are also fairly rare, but January and February storms are the rarest in the NAtl.

An early start to 2012 is totally possible considering the warmth in the Caribbean and GoM.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Interesting tweet by JB regarding a future cold snap for the U.S.

Link

Hydrus has been all over that.
Things could get very interesting in a little under a week...
Interesting solution the GFS has going on in the 288 hour time frame in the GOMEX. Appears very hybrid in nature, but it actually appears somewhat sub-tropical in nature for a brief period of time before becoming completely extra-tropical. Probably wont happen, given how extreme and, actually amazing the conditions would have to be in order to support that. Still, interesting to see a model predicting that kind of system in February. That's how warm the SST's are still down there, the Caribbean could still actually support a cyclone. Shear on the other hand?

Mexican swine flu outbreak kills 29, infects nearly 1,500
By BNO News

MEXICO CITY (BNO NEWS) -- An ongoing swine flu outbreak in Mexico has left at least 29 people dead and nearly 1,500 others infected, health officials confirmed on Saturday. Thousands more are also ill as the country faces several types of flu this season.

Since the start of the ongoing winter season, at least 7,069 people have reported suffering from symptoms similar to those of swine flu. Lab tests are still underway and have so far confirmed 1,456 cases of the disease, which is officially known as A/H1N1.

According to Mexico's Health Ministry (SSA), at least twenty-nine people have died of swine flu so far this season. While no health emergency has been declared, officials expect the death toll will rise in the coming weeks as Mexico also faces A/H3N2 and B influenza.

The H1N1 influenza virus emerged in the Mexican state of Veracruz in April 2009 and quickly spread around the world, causing the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a global flu pandemic in June 2009. At least 18,000 people have died of the disease since, although the actual number is believed to be far higher.

In August 2010, the WHO declared that the swine flu pandemic was over. "In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza," the WHO said at the time. "It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus."

(Copyright 2012 by BNO News B.V. All rights reserved. Info: sales@bnonews.com.)
Quoting RTSplayer:
658:

That would be completely nuts.

A named system on February 10...

Has anything like that ever happened in the past records?


It has but it is very rare. The earliest tropical storm ever recorded was 2/2/1952. The earliest hurricane was 3/6/1908. The earliest major hurricane was hurricane Abel in 1951.

These of course are discounting storms and hurricanes that may have carried over from the previous years (for example, Zeta from 2005 which spanned 2005 to 2006).
Science & Environment 27 January 2012
Accumulating 'microplastic' threat to shores
By Mark Kinver Environment reporter, BBC News

Microscopic plastic debris from washing clothes is accumulating in the marine environment and could be entering the food chain, a study has warned.

Researchers traced the "microplastic" back to synthetic clothes, which released up to 1,900 tiny fibres per garment every time they were washed.

Earlier research showed plastic smaller than 1mm were being eaten by animals and getting into the food chain.

The findings appeared in the journal Environmental Science and Technology.

"Research we had done before... showed that when we looked at all the bits of plastic in the environment, about 80% was made up from smaller bits of plastic," said co-author Mark Browne, an ecologist now based at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

"This really led us to the idea of what sorts of plastic are there and where did they come from."

Dr Browne, a member of the US-based research network National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, said the tiny plastic was a concern because evidence showed that it was making its way into the food chain.

"Once the plastics had been eaten, it transferred from [the animals'] stomachs to their circulation system and actually accumulated in their cells," he told BBC News.

In order to identify how widespread the presence of microplastic was on shorelines, the team took samples from 18 beaches around the globe, including the UK, India and Singapore.

"We found that there was no sample from around the world that did not contain pieces of microplastic."

Dr Browne added: "Most of the plastic seemed to be fibrous.

"When we looked at the different types of polymers we were finding, we were finding that polyester, acrylic and polyamides (nylon) were the major ones that we were finding."

The data also showed that the concentration of microplastic was greatest in areas near large urban centres.

In order to test the idea that sewerage discharges were the source of the plastic discharges, the team worked with a local authority in New South Wales, Australia.

"We found exactly the same proportion of plastics," Dr Browne revealed, which led the team to conclude that their suspicions had been correct.

As a result, Dr Browne his colleague Professor Richard Thompson from the University of Plymouth, UK carried out a number of experiments to see what fibres were contained in the water discharge from washing machines.

"We were quite surprised. Some polyester garments released more than 1,900 fibres per garment, per wash," Dr Browne observed.

"It may not sound like an awful lot, but if that is from a single item from a single wash, it shows how things can build up.

"It suggests to us that a large proportion of the fibres we were finding in the environment, in the strongest evidence yet, was derived from the sewerage as a consequence from washing clothes."
Quoting bappit:

Hydrus has been all over that.
Yes..To me, it is just a matter of timing. If things come together just right, it could get downright ugly. Severe weather, blizzard conditions and maybe some flooding issues for parts of the south..You can see the cold air pooling on the euro...
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Always fascinates me how the climate confusionists and denialists can twist the truth. This one ranks near the top... take a press release that clearly indicates that solar activity lulls are unlikely to affect long term climate, and somehow manage to do a complete 180 on it.

That's not something you can do as an honest mistake, that is something you do when you are deliberately - and with malice - attempting to distort the truth and mislead people. This should serve as a lesson for those that fell for it, as long as they still want to maintain credibility as skeptical scientists or enthusiasts.


Climate Confuscius say: The planet is not getting warmer. You're just getting colder.
Space Weather Center to Add World's First 'Ensemble Forecasting' Capability

ScienceDaily (Jan. 27, 2012) — After years of relative somnolence, the sun is beginning to stir. By the time it's fully awake in about 20 months, the team at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., charged with researching and tracking solar activity, will have at their dispoal a greatly enhanced forecasting capability.

Goddard's Space Weather Laboratory recently received support under NASA's Space Technology Program Game Changing Program to implement "ensemble forecasting," a computer technique already used by meteorologists to track potential paths and impacts of hurricanes and other severe weather events.

Instead of analyzing one set of solar-storm conditions, as is the case now, Goddard forecasters will be able to simultaneously produce as many as 100 computerized forecasts by calculating multiple possible conditions or, in the parlance of Heliophysicists, parameters. Just as important, they will be able to do this quickly and use the information to provide alerts of space weather storms that could potentially be harmful to astronauts and NASA spacecraft.

"Space weather alerts are available now, but we want to make them better," said Michael Hesse, chief of Goddard's Space Weather Laboratory and the recently named director of the Center's Heliophysics Science Division. "Ensemble forecasting will provide a distribution of arrival times, which will improve the reliability of forecasts. This is important. Society is relying more so than ever on space. Communications, navigation, electrical-power generation, all are all susceptible to space weather." Once it's implemented, "there will be nothing like this in the world. No one has done ensemble forecasting for space weather."

SEE FULL ARTICLE Link
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Freeze Warning criteria changes depending on the issuing NWS WFO. Some WFOs only issue it for the first freeze of the year, which signals the end of the growing season. Some WFOs in more mild areas will issue them for each freeze because the events tend to be rare.

I would imagine that Florida counts in the latter, and thus even with near record cold temperatures covering most of the CONUS, Florida would be one of the few places to have Freeze Warnings in effect.


Forgot about that...because, if there was a freeze warning issued everytime we went below 32, 4/5 of the country would be under a freeze warning for months, lol. Thx for pointing that out and reminding me.
ANybody got a good tropical weather blog for me to read?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't worry she got a plan for sure we are to see it first hand
I would like your thoughts on the next pattern change if you have time.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Iggy went from 65 knots...to 50 knotz.

I never thought it had cyclone intensity in the first place.
Quoting bappit:

I don't think you can attribute malice on the part of the author with certainty. They may just be doing their job or are zealously after the lulz. (I hear it is important to enjoy your work.) Hard to say, but I agree it was deliberate.

The author David Rose often distort the truth to mislead people.

Rosegate: Rose hides the incline
Big weather pattern change in the offing. A stratospheric warming event from late December got hung up and did not propagate downward into the polar troposphere...until now. The event will lead to increased blocking at higher latitudes but in a non-classical way this time around. Upshot...no more warm weather in the eastern U.S. after Fri this week. Looks chilly, especially in New England. Much cooler in FL. Heatwave out West.
Are we going to get Alberto early? Extremely early?

Looks subtropical for a while.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Are we going to get Alberto early?



Wait, what? Tropical storms in February? I'm confused...
Quoting hurricane23:
Big weather pattern change in the offing. A stratospheric warming event from late December got hung up and did not propagate downward into the polar troposphere...until now. The event will lead to increased blocking at higher latitudes but in a non-classical way this time around. Upshot...no more warm weather in the eastern U.S. after Fri this week. Looks chilly, especially in New England. Much cooler in FL. Heatwave out West.
I agree. There are a lot of changes coming. GFS has high pressure building near Greenland ( not in the usual spot tho ) And if that were not enough...
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I kinda like CO2 makes my trees grow better, I love plants and trees!

I've noticed that you're not interested in reading scientific literature, but if you love plants and trees, I recommend you to at least watch this video.

Quoting Xandra:

The author David Rose often distort the truth to mislead people.

Rosegate: Rose hides the incline

Sorry if it was not obvious that I take his apparent job to be to hide the truth. I just don't know what his emotional state is when he does that. Is he happy, sad, full of malice? No clue.
I don't know why people are saying Alberto, GFS shows a perfect Nor'Easter set up in its final frames.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Are we going to get Alberto early? Extremely early?

Looks subtropical for a while.



Where does the model show that wave's orgin?

I don't see anything that looks like a potential wave on infrared right now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Are we going to get Alberto early? Extremely early?

Looks subtropical for a while.

The front has been lingering for some time, and is forecast to remain for almost another week. The models pick up lows that form on the tail ends of fronts quite easily...The CMC has some interesting runs for folks in the south..
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I don't know why people are saying Alberto, GFS shows a perfect Nor'Easter set up in its final frames.

Because the system doesn't come out of the west like a regular low-pressure system this time of the year, it comes out of the tropics.
Quoting SPLbeater:
ANybody got a good tropical weather blog for me to read?

Not right now SPL,
just trying to finish out the 2011 recap! Gawd it takes forever to get done...
Anyone here think i should give up on it? I mean ive already made it to Maria, it's just gonna take me about a week and a half to finish the rest of it...
Just want to watch the currents, and not the past, especially with a potential Sub-tropical/hybrid low in the Gulf... it could get very interesting if it can tap into the 26/26.5 C waters in the Channel and the eddy.

PS: if u want me to stop the 2011 Recap, then i can write a current blog on CURRENT Tropical EVENTS...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because the system doesn't come out of the west like a regular low-pressure system this time of the year, it comes out of the tropics.


That how Nor'Easters start, they form as a low in the gulf and explode as they hit the gulf stream and ride up the coast into Canada.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That how Nor'Easters start, they form as a low in the gulf and explode as they hit the gulf stream and ride up the coast into Canada.

Not really, they usually come out of the west, dive southward into the Gulf of Mexico, and strengthen while moving up the Eastern seaboard.
Quoting hydrus:
I agree. There are a lot of changes coming. GFS has high pressure building near Greenland ( not in the usual spot tho ) And if that were not enough...


you're scaring the children
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not really, they usually come out of the south, dive southward into the Gulf of Mexico, and strengthen while moving up the Eastern seaboard.


I haven't seen anything that says thats where they usually start, too me it seems like a classic Nor'Easter set up. Though its 300 hours out so doubt itll happen haha
WTH?

On the 9th and 10th of February, even the 10meter surface winds and precip shows a healthy wave, maybe attaining TD or TS strength, comes off the Yucatan through the Gulf.

1007mb low over the gulf.

1003mb low as it emerges off the east coast of Florida.

Might be legit

Of course, that is 12 days out.

Models only good to maybe 5 to 7 days anyway...
Quoting presslord:


you're scaring the children

...and you ought to know.........
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Not right now SPL,
just trying to finish out the 2011 recap! Gawd it takes forever to get done...
Anyone here think i should give up on it? I mean ive already made it to Maria, it's just gonna take me about a week and a half to finish the rest of it...
Just want to watch the currents, and not the past, especially with a potential Sub-tropical/hybrid low in the Gulf... it could get very interesting if it can tap into the 26/26.5 C waters in the Channel and the eddy.

PS: if u want me to stop the 2011 Recap, then i can write a current blog on CURRENT Tropical EVENTS...


How about you continue to complete it. finish what you start:)

besides, you got 2/3 best ones to do...Ophelia, and Rina. I wouldnt stop.


WOuld love to read your posts in current tropical weather too though, so idk.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not really, they usually come out of the west, dive southward into the Gulf of Mexico, and strengthen while moving up the Eastern seaboard.


i remember watching TWC when i was younger. and seein them shoin a low come down throu the SW, then Texas, then the gulf coast, the start moving NE and 1/2 become noreaster
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
12:00 PM FST January 30 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (999 hPa) located at 16.4S 166.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has improved slightly in the past 12 hours. low level circulation center exposed with deep convection displaced to the east of the low level circulation center. System lies just east of an upper trough and under 250hpa diffluent region in a moderate to high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly into the region of decreasing shear.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and move it southeast.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Basically, from what i've added up in my head on this page...
Weather Current Events: Mid Feb-March
The pattern for the coming months-
The eastern US will be hit continuously by troughs diving down from Alaska/Canada and the Arctic... This will result in more Winter-like conditions, like Blizzards and Sub-zero temps...
On the other side of the US, Large High pressure systems will set up over the Western and South-western US, this will result in above average temps and below average rainfall... Which means the Drought will reign once more over the south at least for a month or two... Though break downs of the High will happen every once in a while, but the pattern should stay firm...

Tropics:
The tropics stand right now as they usually are around this time, but currently we are dealing with what some the hurricane models think is a possible Sub-tropical/Hybrid storm, that could potentially become Alberto, but the conditions have to stack up perfectly... I'd give the chances of this developing at 35%... Basically: 65% it will fall short of Storm status...

Look what the new Zealand National Meteorological Service has on the 2nd of Febuary(1st of Febuary here in CONUS)



Big fat 985mb low just about sitting over Noumea, New Caledonia...
TAWX,
i mean otherwise the fact the low seem legit in the Gulf, it has some definate Frontal and Nor'Easter typer origon and development, so im gonna say a NO GO for both system the models pick up on, still interesting to see that the models are showing interest in our Basin already.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Are we going to get Alberto early? Extremely early?

Looks subtropical for a while.

That would be Amazing.
Assuming for the moment that it does form, it will be moving 35mph, so by the time an advisory is issued it will already be wrong by half a degree of lattitude and longitude.

Give it 5 to 7 days before anyone takes this seriously.

If GFS is still hinting at it next week, then it might be worth watching.


It says rain on the map, but it is actually a snow squall, and I might pick up a dusting of snow tonight!!!!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


It says rain on the map, but it is actually a snow squall, and I might pick up a dusting of snow tonight!!!!


Better you then me. Hear any thunder, send it down this way:) along with a thermometer reading 75 :D

lol
10-12 days out on a weather model might show a trend but is not very reliable. You're betting on winning the race before you even picked the horse.
Would they fly a hurricane hunter in there if it actually forms on Feb 9/10?

That would be completely weird...
sorry *you're
Huge white flakes falling right now, gusty winds to 35 MPH... Wow!!

There is not going to be a storm to track in our neck of the woods in February.
Well, its bedtime for me. Be back tomorrow morning! ttyl!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There is not going to be a storm to track in our neck of the woods in February.


Don't tarnish our hopes and dreams. :(
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's happened before:



Yeah, that's almost exactly what the model is showing for Feb 9 and 10, except the model's storm appears to come from the Bay of Campeche or western side of the Yucatan.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't tarnish our hopes and dreams. :(


I would never do that Kori. I think it would be awesome. But, not going to happen.
Dusty and cold. Near 20 this morning. But not as bad as before got down to 5 last weekend.
We've had some decent snowstorms this month.

5" Jan 3-6, intermittent snow showers throughout

7" Jan 14-15

9" Jan 22-23

We also had 1 1/2" on Jan 11

Hi Brian...hope you are doing well.
C or F?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Dusty and cold. Near 20 this morning. But not as bad as before got down to 5 last weekend.

Fahrenheit. We are to the north of Kabul, but slightly lower. Still near 4,900 feet.

Hope you're doing well Geoffrey and Shen.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Fahrenheit. We are to the north of Kabul, but slightly lower. Still near 4,900 feet.

Hope you're doing well Geoffrey and Shen.


When you come home, you will have to travel down to south Fla. so you, Grothar and myself can party. Of course, Gro's nurse will have to come also.
Does 'stan do C or F.  What about other metric stuff?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Fahrenheit. We are to the north of Kabul, but slightly lower. Still near 4,900 feet.

Hope you're doing well Geoffrey and Shen.

I'm good. 

Does 'stan operate on Metric or English?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Fahrenheit. We are to the north of Kabul, but slightly lower. Still near 4,900 feet.

Hope you're doing well Geoffrey and Shen.

Cesium leakage keeps increasing
Posted by Mochizuki on January 29th, 2012 · No Comments

Following up this article ..Radiation emit has increased since January

Tepco estimated that the cesium emission of January is 70 million Bq/h, but it increased to be 72 million Bq/h even since 1/23, when they made the estimation. The radiation leakage is in the increasing trend.
From 1/22 ~ 1/28, emission of cesium per hour was 72 million Bq/h, Tepco announced. It increased from December by 12 million Bq/h. However, this is only the leakage amount from reactor 1,2 and 3. The leakage data from reactor 4 is not published.
Tepco explains it is because they started woking in reactor 2 and 3, more people walk about so the dust flies into the air. They add, it is really difficult to reduce the emission drastically.



Cold weather destroys water cooling system
Posted by Mochizuki on January 29th, 2012 · No Comments



Cold weather destroys water cooling system2

As exactly warned, water cooling system keeps having water leakage at various points.
On 1/29, Tepco announced they found water leakage at 14 points, 7800 L in total. That is because frozen water in pipes caused leakage at joint parts from the cold weather.
Tepco claims it’s the water after purification or plain water from dam, none of it has leaked to the sea.

At 9:35, heat exchanger stopped after 40 L of contaminated water leaked from the pipe.
At 9:50, Tepco employee found 600 L of contaminated water leaked around the flow monitor of emergency pomp. There was a water leakage even at reactor 6.


CBC on TMI: Reports of enormous increase in cancer deaths — Infant mortality rates doubled — Birds disappeared — Many mutations observed (VIDEO)
Published: January 29th, 2012 at 04:07 PM EDT
By Enenews Admin
Title: Counting the Costs: Three Mile Island
Source: Listener’s Choice from CBC Radio
Date: June 6th, 2008

Gwen Anderson was only twenty-three years old when she first heard “Counting the Costs: Three Mile Island” on CBC Radio. Now it’s twenty-three years later, and Gwen earns a living doing the same kind of work that the men at Three Mile Island did. She requested this Ideas documentary from Winnipeg. It originally aired on October 13th, 1986.

Transcript Summary

Reports we are getting say infant mortality rates doubled
More important is the enormous increase in cancer deaths in children in the four counties surrounding TMI compared to the numbers previous to the accident that the health department listed even on say leukemia

Animals and plants damaged substantially
We have done an in-depth report on plant life
We are seeing many mutations
We saw the leaves the first year
All the birds on the farm disappeared
The trees, it looked like winter
Not only did we see complete defoliation, we saw trees defoliated at different levels
Afghanistan is metric, not imperial. But for distances there are islamic units like the orgye (about 6 feet 4 inches), the qasab (2 orgyes)

img src="">

The Tsar Bomba

October 30th 1961 - The Tsar Bomba, King of the Bombs, Царь-бомба or Big Ivan.

This footage is courtesy of the documentary "Trinity and Beyond", directed by Peter Kuran, and other footage is courtesy of the Discovery channel. The original footage was from declassified Soviet Archives. The music used is from The Planets Suite composed by Gustav Holst. The movement is 'Mars: the Bringer of War'

Before I get into the details of the test, I want to clear up something very important. The title of this video is "Tsar Bomba - King of the Bombs - 57,000,000 Tonnes of TNT". Understand now that this test wasn't the result of a detonation of 57,000,000 Tonnes of TNT, but rather the nuclear yield EQUIVALENT of a detonation of 57,000,000 Tonnes of Trinitrotoluene. The actual weight of the device was 27 tonnes. And coincidentally, one tonne is taken as a metric tonne, or 1000 kilograms - (2200lbs). All units used in physics are metric. The reason the yield equivalent system is used is because the energy released from the explosion of a set amount of TNT is a constant.

Second to that: I KNOW THE SCREENSHOTS AT THE END ARE OF THE CLOUD OVER THE GROUND. The reason I made a mistake was because when I made this video I was using a 6 year old CRT monitor with numerous problems, some of which with the shading. I greatly regret it butI cant be bothered removing/re-uploading the video again so Ill just live with it.

The bomb was designed as a 100 Megaton device, not a 50 Megaton device. This was due to its 3 stage design: fission-fusion-fusion. There is fission initiator that when detonated, begins a fusion reaction. Then there is a further fast-fission detonation (With neutrons from the second stage) of a Uranium-238 tamper which boosts the yield by 50 Megatons. For the test, the Tsar had its Uranium tamper replaced with lead to reduce the maximum yield by half (To 50 Megatons).

The blast yield was equal to that of a blast of 57,000,000 Tonnes of TNT....or to put that into context: The weight of 270 Empire State Buildings worth of TNT. This makes the Tsar the most powerful nuclear device ever detonated in history. Think of the destruction at Hiroshima. The Tsar was 3800 times more powerful than Hiroshima.

The bomb's weight was 27 tonnes, and its dimensions were: 8 meters (26ft) in length, and 2 meters (6.5ft) in diameter.

It was air-dropped, from a modified Tupolev Tu-95 Bear, and it used a nylon parachute to slow its decent to give the crew time to escape.

The bomb was dropped from an altitude of 34,500 feet AGL (10,500 meters), and it detonated a little over three minutes later at an altitude of 13,100 feet AGL (4,000 meters). In this time: The Tu-95, travelling at a ground speed of 480kts (552mph, 864kph), travelled into the safe zone (about 45km from ground zero) and was therefore 79km away from the blast.

When the bomb detonated, immediately the temperature directly below and surrounding the detonation would have risen to millions of degrees. The pressure below the blast was 300 pounds per square inch, ten times the pressure in a car tyre. The light energy released was so powerful that it was visible even at 1000km (621 miles), with cloudy skies. The shockwave was powerful enough to break windows at even up to 900 kilometres (560 miles) from the blast. The shockwave was recorded orbiting the earth 3 times. The mushroom cloud rose to an altitude of 64,000 meters (210,000 feet) before levelling out. The thermal energy from the blast was powerful that it could cause 3rd degree burns to a human standing 100 km (62 miles) away from the blast.
The radius of the fireball was 2.3 kilometres (1.4 miles). The blast radius (area in which total destruction ensured) was 13km (8 miles).


The most important thing to note is that this bomb was designed as a 100 Megaton device (Yield equivalent of 0.1 billion tonnes of TNT). If detonated, everything within a 48 kilometer (30 mile) diameter would be vaporised. Everything within a 195 kilometer (120 mile) diameter would be incinerated in a fireball. This would ensure total destruction of a large city like New York, Paris or London, as well as devastation on its outskirts.

There are longer units too.

A seir is about 600 feet.

A ghalva is about 720 feet.

A parasang is about 3 1/2 miles

A barid is 4 parasangs

A marhala is 8 parasangs

Afghani peasants may not know meters and kilometers well but they know their ghalvas and parasangs when talking distances or family land boundaries.
The Afghanis also use a term of area called a bigha. Used in measuring farmland. It's not really a unit. Bighas vary in size from about 1,800 square yards to 15,000 square yards.

As you can see some are bigha than others.
You definitely want him to bring his nurse.  The big G always surrounded himself with beautiful women
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


When you come home, you will have to travel down to south Fla. so you, Grothar and myself can party. Of course, Gro's nurse will have to come also.

I leave you with a vid I found of the aurora borealis video shot in Tromso Norway on Jan 24. The video is shot in real time. No time-lapse acceleration.

748. wxmod
It's amazing that some people think the development of weapons ends here. This was a long time ago. Technology moves forward. Now they could crack the Earth in two.
But the most important new weapons are the ones that can devastate at a distance, without your adversary even noticing who is doing the dirty deed. Those are the weather weapons; the Earthquake weapons, the disease weapons. We've got em all. Nighty night.


Quoting sunlinepr:
img src="">

The Tsar Bomba

October 30th 1961 - The Tsar Bomba, King of the Bombs, Царь-бомба or Big Ivan.

This footage is courtesy of the documentary "Trinity and Beyond", directed by Peter Kuran, and other footage is courtesy of the Discovery channel. The original footage was from declassified Soviet Archives. wave was powerful enough to break windows at even up to 900 kilometres (560 miles) from the blast. The shockwave was recorded orbiting the earth 3 times. The mushroom cloud rose to an altitude of 64,000 meters (210,000 feet) before levelling out. The thermal energy from the blast was powerful that it could cause 3rd degree burns to a human standing 100 n on its outskirts.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I leave you with a vid I found of the aurora borealis video shot in Tromso Norway on Jan 24. The video is shot in real time. No time-lapse acceleration.


Thanks for the vid. Makes me want to see the lights in person some day.
Quoting presslord:


you're scaring the children



LOL
are 1st name storm this year is call Alberto

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
3:00 PM WST January 30 2012
=================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (980 hPa) located at 19.9S 110.1E or 475 km west northwest of Exmouth and 660 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 20.7S 109.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.9S 108.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 25.4S 106.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 26.9S 107.9E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been located by a combination of microwave imagery and VIS. Shear remains low. DT remains at 3.0 based on wrap averaging 0.7, PAT agrees, so FT and CI is held at 3.0.

TC Iggy is maintaining a westerly movement. General consensus is for a southwesterly track over the next 48 hours. By Wednesday the system will be moving over much cooler sea surface temperatures and may be experiencing stronger wind shear, causing Iggy to weaken below cyclone intensity.

It is possible the remnants of Iggy may move back towards the west coast later in the week but it is unlikely that Iggy would still be a cyclone at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
18:00 PM FST January 30 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (1000 hPa) located at 15.9S 167.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. THe depression is reported as moving east at 10 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has not improved much in the past 12 hours. Convection remains to the east of the low level circulation center. System lies to the east of an upper trough and under the influence of a strong northwesterly wind flow region aloft. Depression lies in a region of moderate to high vertical shear. sea surface temperature is around 29-30C. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly into a region of decreasing shear.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
18:00 PM FST January 30 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located at 17.4S 170.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots. The depression is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Convection remains persistent for the last 12 hours. Overall organization has not improved for the past 12 hours. Depression lies to the east of an upper trough and under the influence of a strong northwesterly wind flow aloft. System lies in an area of moderate shear. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Really? I only see one comment of yours in the last 50 to which anyone responded, and that wasn't anything you wrote, but rather the text of a denialist article from a tabloid that's been linked to half-a-dozen times already today, and responded to at least that many times.

Anyway, while accusing people who insist on telling the scientific truth of being socialists and communists is the last refuge of the desperate, can't we at least try to avoid such nonsensical accusations here? Please?


Sir, your the one attacking, discrediting, and name calling, I'm only bringing to light the methods you and others used against me in the arguments, rather than have a civil discourse!
Oh, I don't see any commercials this year showing the poor Polar bears drowning due to the lack of Ice in Alaska, due to Global warming!

Why not? one ask!


Because there isn't a political advantage to the argument that Alaska is frozen solid!
How dare anyone sully a perfectly good argument by trying to involve pesky things like scientific investigation, observation, and data?
We just got another proton blast on the 27th. Should make for more interesting aurora images.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY TWO (11U)
9:00 PM WST January 30 2012
=================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category Two (974 hPa) located at 20.4S 110.2E or 440 km west northwest of Exmouth and 610 km northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
110 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 21.4S 109.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 23.0S 108.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 26.5S 107.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 27.2S 109.5E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has been located by a combination of microwave imagery, visible and infrared. Shear remains low, and there is evidence that strengthening upper level outflow has led to a slight intensification over the past 12 hours. Additionally TC Iggy is now moving into less disturbed waters, and convection has become symmetric about a large diameter eye.

DT is at 3.5 with a curved band wrap of 0.8. SATCON has a 61 kn one minute intensity - in part based on a microwave estimate of 65 kn one minute winds at 06z. As such the intensity is placed at 55 knots 10 minute mean.

Almost all models have come into line on forecast track over the next 48 to 72 hours, and the consensus has been followed here. Some models indicate further intensification, however this forecast holds the intensity at 55 knots, and then begins a weakening trend [due to low SSTs] prior to the system falling below TC intensity and taking a more easterly track.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Quoting sunlinepr:
img src="">

The Tsar Bomba

October 30th 1961 - The Tsar Bomba, King of the Bombs, Царь-бомба or Big Ivan.

This footage is courtesy of the documentary "Trinity and Beyond", directed by Peter Kuran, and other footage is courtesy of the Discovery channel. The original footage was from declassified Soviet Archives. ....



All you need to know about nuclear war. A 12 minute presentation at the recent AGU meeting by Alan Robock of Rutgers.

Link

4 word summary. There are no winners.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Oh, I don't see any commercials this year showing the poor Polar bears drowning due to the lack of Ice in Alaska, due to Global warming!

Why not? one ask!


Because there isn't a political advantage to the argument that Alaska is frozen solid!


Snowing a few extra feet in a location that usually gets several feet of snow anyway does NOT make up for an entire continent being way below average snowfall.

Today's Departure from Normal Lows

30 degrees above normal lows?

Really?

How's the sun supposedly causing that during 12 hours of darkness?
Quoting Skyepony:

AO has a really big influence on Polish weather. Just look at the Jan 2012 tempeature chart for Wroclaw and you'll see
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Oh, I don't see any commercials this year showing the poor Polar bears drowning due to the lack of Ice in Alaska, due to Global warming!

Why not? one ask!


Because there isn't a political advantage to the argument that Alaska is frozen solid!


Yes Alaska is feeling winters fierce grip, but look at the data for this past year vs. the norm of years before. There is about a 6:1 ratio on the earths surface area that was above normal, while if you just look at total Continental land mass, that ratio is closer to 50:1 in above normal temperatures. So what point are you trying to make from that? That it's bad data? Show me how this is incorrect. It is what it is...
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Oh, I don't see any commercials this year showing the poor Polar bears drowning due to the lack of Ice in Alaska, due to Global warming!

Why not? one ask!


Because there isn't a political advantage to the argument that Alaska is frozen solid!


Actually the polar bears are currently on your can of Coca-Cola to raise awareness & money. From a corporate advantage it makes great political sense..



Quoting trunkmonkey:
Oh, I don't see any commercials this year showing the poor Polar bears drowning due to the lack of Ice in Alaska, due to Global warming!

Why not? one ask!


Because there isn't a political advantage to the argument that Alaska is frozen solid!




Link

Yes, Alaska is below normal but see all the areas in the Arctic that are above normal.

This is one day's measurements. They do not represent "climate" just as one area's weather doesn't.

Climate change better represented by the northward adjustment of the plant hardiness zones as has just occurred in the US.
Quoting Skyepony:


Actually the polar bears are currently on your can of Coca-Cola to raise awareness & money. From a corporate advantage it makes great political sense..






Whoooooosh!!!! Nothin' but net!!!
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

AO has a really big influence on Polish weather. Just look at the Jan 2012 tempeature chart for Wroclaw and you'll see



Your temperatures has fallen.. That river just partially frozen?
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Sir, your the one attacking, discrediting, and name calling, I'm only bringing to light the methods you and others used against me in the arguments, rather than have a civil discourse!

Let me refresh your memory!

Quoting trunkmonkey 12:49 AM CET on Januari 30, 2012:

Wow I see Saul Alinsky's students are alive and well today, using his Rules for Radicals to discredit anything I say and publish, go commrades!
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Sir, your the one attacking, discrediting, and name calling, I'm only bringing to light the methods you and others used against me in the arguments, rather than have a civil discourse!
Care to provide a link to the comment(s) where you saw me "attacking" you or calling you names? I would really appreciate it, so thanks in advance.

I did, however, engage in "discrediting". But that's only because highlighting the lack of credibility in those promoted as credible is how the truth is discovered; it happens everyday in a courtroom near you. (And note that no one "discredited" you, but rather the article to which you linked.)
Quoting presslord:



Whoooooosh!!!! Nothin' but net!!!


Thanks Press~ The only reason I didn't link the pic back to where the join us button would take you to donate is, it is a broken link...
'commie' and 'socialist' strike me as 'name calling'....and, of course, there's always thisLink
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Sir, your the one attacking, discrediting, and name calling, I'm only bringing to light the methods you and others used against me in the arguments, rather than have a civil discourse!


i dont even bother with neapolitan. he never said a good thing to me, just negative. so he go poof months ago xD
Any1 seen Iggy lately, i think he made something positive out of a dry air entrainment.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies forecast for the next four days across the continental U.S.:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm


The year of no winter continues across much of the United States. Our next three days here in Central Illinois is calling for lower to mid 50's for highs. I think average is around 34 for this time of the year, I bet our average this year has been somewhere between 40-45 with little deviation. We have not had many nights below 20 either. Just ridiculous. Looks as if the pattern could change late in the week as the models are having a difficult time of just how it will unfold. I am keeping my fingers crossed for our first potential Midwest snow storm.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


The year of no winter continues across much of the United States. Our next three days here in Central Illinois is calling for lower to mid 50's for highs. I think average is around 34 for this time of the year, I bet our average this year has been somewhere between 40-45 with little deviation. We have not had many nights below 20 either. Just ridiculous. Looks as if the pattern could change late in the week as the models are having a difficult time of just how it will unfold. I am keeping my fingers crossed for our first potential Midwest snow storm.
Models are rather vague at at the moment. The GFS and the Euro seem to put something on the map by this weekend. By Wednesday, we should have a good idea what will transpire. The cold air near the Northern Territories has moved E-SE the past 24 hours.
:D

SINCE DECEMBER BEAUMONT HAS RECEIVED 9.67 INCHES OF RAIN... LAKE
CHARLES 13.24 INCHES... LAFAYETTE... 8.59 INCHES WITH ALEXANDRIA
REPORTING...11.44 INCHES. VERY WELCOME NEWS FOR A REGION THAT HAS
BEEN IN A DROUGHT OVER TWO YEARS.
ities
Place Alerts Temp. Humidity Pressure Conditions Wind Updated
Aasiaat 9 °F 67% 29.77 in Partly Cloudy NNE at 22 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Angisoq 28 °F 58% 29.27 in Snow NW at 14 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Aputiteeq 22 °F 96% 29.77 in Snow East at 11 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Cape Harald Moltke -25 °F 59% n/a Cloudy NE at 3 mph Estimated Save
Cape Tobin 7 °F 92% 29.89 in Light Snow Fog Variable at 2 mph 1:50 PM EGT Save
Carey Island 0 °F 67% 30.09 in Cloudy SSE at 12 mph 8:00 AM AST Save
Daneborg 1 °F 48% 29.84 in Partly Cloudy South at 4 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Danmarkshavn -2 °F 56% n/a Snow NW at 17 mph Estimated Save
Hall Land -27 °F 69% 30.11 in Partly Cloudy Calm 8:00 AM MST Save
Henrik Kroeyer Holme -4 °F 67% 29.99 in Cloudy NNE at 22 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Ikermiit 25 °F 72% 29.62 in Snow NW at 20 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Ikermiuarsuk 25 °F 27% 29.54 in Cloudy NNW at 28 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Illoqqortoormiut 7 °F 92% 29.89 in Light Snow Fog Variable at 2 mph 1:50 PM EGT Save
Ilulissat -2 °F 60% 29.74 in Clear NE at 10 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Kangerlussuaq -19 °F 56% 29.72 in Clear NE at 9 mph 12:00 PM WGT Save
Kangilinnguit 23 °F 63% n/a Cloudy NNE at 3 mph Estimated Save
Kap Morris Jesup -27 °F 60% n/a Cloudy WSW at 11 mph Estimated Save
Kitsissorsuit -3 °F 68% 30.03 in Cloudy NNE at 7 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Kitsissut 9 °F 57% 29.59 in Clear East at 5 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Kulusuk 27 °F 80% 29.68 in Mostly Cloudy ESE at 23 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Maniitsoq 25 °F 40% 29.36 in Scattered Clouds NW at 6 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Mittarfik Nuuk 18 °F 49% 29.33 in Scattered Clouds Variable at 2 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Narsarsuaq 34 °F 35% 29.24 in Low Drifting Snow ENE at 32 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Navy Operated -24 °F 99% n/a Cloudy South at 17 mph Estimated Save
Nerlerit Inaat 7 °F 92% 29.89 in Light Snow Fog Variable at 2 mph 1:50 PM EGT Save
Nunarsuit 27 °F 72% 29.32 in Cloudy East at 12 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Nuuk 18 °F 49% 29.33 in Scattered Clouds Variable at 2 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Nuussuaataa 0 °F 66% 29.86 in Clear South at 5 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Paamiut 21 °F 24% 29.30 in Mostly Cloudy NE at 4 mph 12:00 PM WGT Save
Pituffik -17 °F 73% 30.09 in Clear East at 10 mph 10:55 AM AST Save
Prins Christian Sund 26 °F 86% 29.19 in Heavy Snow NNE at 51 mph 12:00 PM WGT Save
Qaanaaq -29 °F 83% n/a Clear ESE at 9 mph Estimated Save
Qaarsut 0 °F 66% 29.86 in Clear South at 5 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Qaqortoq 34 °F 35% 29.24 in Low Drifting Snow ENE at 32 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Sioralik 25 °F 40% 29.36 in Scattered Clouds NW at 6 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Sisimiut 9 °F 57% 29.59 in Clear East at 5 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Sisimiut Mittarfia 9 °F 57% 29.59 in Clear East at 5 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Station Nord -17 °F 94% n/a Cloudy North at 9 mph Estimated Save
Station Nord -16 °F 56% 30.11 in Cloudy NW at 6 mph 12:00 PM WGT Save
Summit -23 °F 75% n/a Cloudy South at 17 mph Estimated Save
Tasiilaq 27 °F 80% 29.68 in Mostly Cloudy ESE at 23 mph 11:50 AM WGT Save
Ukiivik 21 °F 48% 29.35 in Cloudy ESE at 8 mph 9:00 AM WGT Save
Upernavik -6 °F 92%

Greenland has diverse temperatures. Ice freezes at 32F
GLOBAL WARMING
I put together some Monday morning numbers for your enjoyment:
  • 109 - the number of new daily low temperature records that have been set so far this year in the United States. 25 of those were set in Alaska.

  • 2,132 - the number of new daily high temperature records that have been set so far this year in the United States. One of those was set in Alaska.

  • 19.56 to 1 - the ratio of new daily high temperature records to new daily low temperature records set so far this year in the United States.

  • 1 - the number of all-time January low temperature records set so far this month in the United States.

  • 42 - the number of all-time January high temperature records set so far this month in the United States.

  • 1 - the number of days so far this month during which record daily low temperatures have outnumbered record daily high temperature records in the United States.

  • 28 - the number of days so far this month during which record daily high temperatures have outnumbered record daily low temperature records in the United States.

  • 1 - the number of weeks in the past 11 this winter during which record daily low temperatures have outnumbered record daily high temperature records in the United States.

  • 10 - the number of weeks in the past 11 this winter during which record daily high temperatures have outnumbered record daily low temperature records in the United States.
Quoting Bergeron:
GLOBAL WARMING


Are you really using 3 La Nina years to disprove global warming?

Please try again.
lol #781

Some anti-gw people use anything to prove that it aint real. i dont think its real...but i dont think it isnt either lol.

I dont have a side here.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Are you really using 3 La Nina years to disprove global warming?

Please try again.


Does it matter? The chart doesn't lie...goes to show the globe warms and cools in response to the oceans. Lower temp anomalies, are lower temp anomalies.
It matters not what any one Human thinks, thats ego of the ignorant.

The truth is the truth, its above the din of Human Minds.


Global Upper Ocean Heat Content is Rising


While ocean heat content varies significantly from place to place and from year-to-year (as a result of changing ocean currents and natural variability), there is a strong trend during the period of reliable measurements. Increasing heat content in the ocean is also consistent with sea level rise, which is occurring mostly as a result of thermal expansion of the ocean water as it warms.



Time series of seasonal (red dots) and annual average (black line) of global upper ocean heat content for the 0-700m layer since 1955. More information: BAMS State of the Climate in 2009.
I see we have a spinner just south of the Solomon Islands.





Also notice the tropical low that is forming in Eastern Gulf Of Carpenteria.

(click images for loops)
Currently Active Tropical Cyclones

SH092012 - Tropical Cyclone (<64 kt) IGGY

SH912012 - INVEST
Quoting Bergeron:


Does it matter? The chart doesn't lie...goes to show the globe warms and cools in response to the oceans. Lower temp anomalies, are lower temp anomalies.


The chart cherry-picks the peak of the most recent warm cycle and compares it to the trough of a natural cold cycle over an absurdly short time period, and uses the 30 year average as a metric when the 30 year average is now heavily weighted by the 15 warmest years on record.

How is that honest to point to one or two down anomalies, which are themselves far above the up anomalies from earlier in the century, but present the data as though it's an actual cooling trend?

The owner is dee Climate, da Dog is da weather..


Quoting hydrus:
Models are rather vague at at the moment. The GFS and the Euro seem to put something on the map by this weekend. By Wednesday, we should have a good idea what will transpire. The cold air near the Northern Territories has moved E-SE the past 24 hours.


I find it strange though that the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast which is about the same time this potential storm will be tracking through the country, shows widespread below average precipitation. Whats up with that?

6-10 day


8-14 day
Quoting RTSplayer:


The chart cherry-picks the peak of the most recent warm cycle and compares it to the trough of a natural cold cycle over an absurdly short time period, and uses the 30 year average as a metric when the 30 year average is now heavily weighted by the 15 warmest years on record.

How is that honest to point to one or two down anomalies, which are themselves far above the up anomalies from earlier in the century, but present the data as though it's an actual cooling trend?



Still...cooler than 09.
Even on a Science based entry as here, some still dont understand squat.

794. wxmod
by James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Link

"The scientific method requires objective analysis of all data, stating evidence pro and con, before reaching conclusions. This works well, indeed is necessary, for achieving success in science. But science is now pitted in public debate against the talk-show method, which consists of selective citation of anecdotal bits that support a predetermined position."

"Why is the public presented results of the scientific method and the talk-show method as if they deserved equal respect? A few decades ago that did not happen."

"The fossil fuel kingpins who profit from the public’s fossil fuel addiction, some of them multi-billionaires, are loosely knit, but with a well-understood common objective of maintaining the public’s addiction. These kingpins have the resources to be well aware of the scientific knowledge concerning the consequences of continued exploitation of fossil fuels. However, they choose not only to ignore those facts, but to support activities intended to keep the public ill- informed. These kingpins are guilty of high crimes against humanity and nature. It is little consolation that the world will eventually convict them in the court of public opinion or even, unlikely as it is, that they may be forced to stand trial in the future before an international court of justice."
END QUOTES

THERE ARE PEOPLE ON THIS BLOG WHO GET PAID BY THE FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY TO DISCREDIT SCIENTIFIC FACT. THEY WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUED FOR THEIR PARTICIPATION IN CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY. NOT ONLY WILL THEY AND THEIR CHILDREN HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE CLIMATE DISASTER THEY CAUSE, BUT THEY WILL ALSO LOOSE ALL THEIR MONEY AND FREEDOM.

Tell people in Eastern Europe its a year without a winter. Just because its abnormally warm here doesn't mean anything, as we were reminded over and over last year when it was abnormally cold here.
Quoting wxmod:
by James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Link

"The scientific method requires objective analysis of all data, stating evidence pro and con, before reaching conclusions. This works well, indeed is necessary, for achieving success in science. But science is now pitted in public debate against the talk-show method, which consists of selective citation of anecdotal bits that support a predetermined position."

"Why is the public presented results of the scientific method and the talk-show method as if they deserved equal respect? A few decades ago that did not happen."

"The fossil fuel kingpins who profit from the public’s fossil fuel addiction, some of them multi-billionaires, are loosely knit, but with a well-understood common objective of maintaining the public’s addiction. These kingpins have the resources to be well aware of the scientific knowledge concerning the consequences of continued exploitation of fossil fuels. However, they choose not only to ignore those facts, but to support activities intended to keep the public ill- informed. These kingpins are guilty of high crimes against humanity and nature. It is little consolation that the world will eventually convict them in the court of public opinion or even, unlikely as it is, that they may be forced to stand trial in the future before an international court of justice."
END QUOTES

THERE ARE PEOPLE ON THIS BLOG WHO GET PAID BY THE FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY TO DISCREDIT SCIENTIFIC FACT. THEY WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUED FOR THEIR PARTICIPATION IN CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY. NOT ONLY WILL THEY AND THEIR CHILDREN HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE CLIMATE DISASTER THEY CAUSE, BUT THEY WILL ALSO LOOSE ALL THEIR MONEY AND FREEDOM.




Actually, you're wrong.

According to Kevin Trudeau, and I'm paraphrasing, "There is no law on the books forbidding false advertisement, just so long as it isn't true."

Essentially, you can make any claim you want about a product and it is not illegal, just as long as the claim is not true. That is literally the case in the drug industry.


What I'm getting at is that technically the oil companies have not committed a crime at all.

The constitution forbids the passage of an "Ex post facto" law, which means you cannot punish someone for an act which was not technically illegal before the law was passed, even if it was obviously immoral, and even if everyone knows it "should have been illegal."
797. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:



Actually, you're wrong.

According to Kevin Trudeau, and I'm paraphrasing, "There is no law on the books forbidding false advertisement, just so long as it isn't true."

Essentially, you can make any claim you want about a product and it is not illegal, just as long as the claim is not true. That is literally the case in the drug industry.


What I'm getting at is that technically the oil companies have not committed a crime at all.

The constitution forbids the passage of an "Ex post facto" law, which means you cannot punish someone for an act which was not technically illegal before the law was passed, even if it was obviously immoral, and even if everyone knows it "should have been illegal."


ACTUALLY,
Crimes against humanity are a world court issue and laws of the good ol usa don't apply.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I find it strange though that the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast which is about the same time this potential storm will be tracking through the country, shows widespread below average precipitation. Whats up with that?

6-10 day


8-14 day
Like I was saying, the models are vague for now. I do believe when the pattern shifts, it will be rapid. Check out the NOGAPS for example,..Link it certainly is not the best model, but you can get an idea of how fast tha cold air quite literally "dumps" into the lower 48..
Take for example, the Casey Anthony trial.

Everyone knows that regardless of how the girl died, at least one person in that family was involved in wrongdoing. Even if it was an accident, it was wrong for them to have thrown her body away like trash.

But they didn't PROVE murder. At best they proved mistreatment of a corpse, failure to report a death, and several counts of purgery.

Unfortunately, failure to report a death and mistreatment of a corpse were not a crimes in the state of Florida. So now, even though they are passing the law to make this a crime, they cannot go back and file new charges against Casey Anthony, or for that matter, anyone else who had any involvement in the case.

They could, however, open a case against another suspect if evidence became available to prove someone else was involved in the death or coverup, BUT they could never charge anyone with breaking the new "failure to report a death" law, due to the Ex Post Facto rule.
800. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:
Take for example, the Casey Anthony trial.

Everyone knows that regardless of how the girl died, at least one person in that family was involved in wrongdoing. Even if it was an accident, it was wrong for them to have thrown her body away like trash.

But they didn't PROVE murder. At best they proved mistreatment of a corpse, failure to report a death, and several counts of purgery.

Unfortunately, failure to report a death and mistreatment of a corpse were not a crimes in the state of Florida. So now, even though they are passing the law to make this a crime, they cannot go back and file new charges against Casey Anthony, or for that matter, anyone else who had any involvement in the case.

They could, however, open a case against another suspect if evidence became available to prove someone else was involved in the death or coverup, BUT they could never charge anyone with breaking the new "failure to report a death" law, due to the Ex Post Facto rule.


It will be no trouble to find out if you are employed by the oil industry.
Quoting wxmod:


ACTUALLY,
Crimes against humanity are a world court issue and laws of the good ol usa don't apply.


It's not a crime to produce CO2, else they'd have to execute everyone.

You can't legislate away global warming by international law. Want to know why?

Because nobody would obey it anyway, and then if anyone tries to enforce it, they'll start World War 3.

Do you really tink anyone is going to cut their carbon production by 50% in advanced nations just to offset the improvements in world living standards in developing nations and 3rd world nations, and global population continues increasing above 10% per decade?

Not likely unless a complete revolution in energy occurs, AND Americans and Europeans get rid of the "NIMBY" attitude as it regards wind and solar systems.

You haven't seen anything yet, really.

The CO2 and methane curves lag about 16 to 20 years behind the population curve, because a person's individual contribution to pollution doesn't REALLY start to kick in until they start driving regularly, and get their first "real" job.
Quoting wxmod:


It will be no trouble to find out if you are employed by the oil industry.


I'm not involved with any oil industry.

I'm just telling you the simple truth about a founding principle of this country.

You cannot charge someone with a crime if it was not a crime at the time the act was committed.
Bergeron is right, the Earth has been cooling for decades... Link
Anyone seen this?

Link

Who are these so called 16 "scientists"?
Quoting Skyepony:



Your temperatures has fallen.. That river just partially frozen?


The tempereratures are below freezing point since 4 days,so the water had not enough time for freeze :)
806. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:


I'm not involved with any oil industry.

I'm just telling you the simple truth about a founding principle of this country.

You cannot charge someone with a crime if it was not a crime at the time the act was committed.


The younger generations can do a class action lawsuit against people who intentionally wrecked their world. It will be a big, big lawsuit and even if my kid only gets a million bucks, so will 7 billion other people. That's quite a bit of dough, don't you think?
Must be a cleaning day over at da Bunker.

LoL
Why is it, that when i view my historical blogs from december n november...my profile changes? bt when i come back to my corrent one n here...its back to the SMD Subwoofer?
there it is. its changed to Tebow and i didnt change it. ?????
Climate Change in Arctic could Trigger Domino Effect Around the World

By Lawrence Villamar | January 30, 2012 4:00 PM EST
Professor Carlos Duarte, a leading scientist from The University of Western Australia, says human kind is set to face dire consequences as the first signs of climate change manifest in the Arctic. He says the region is approaching “a series of ‘tipping points’” that could trigger a domino effect of climate change on Earth.

In a paper, the lead author Professor Duarte, who is also the Director of the University’s Oceans Institute, said the Arctic region contained arguably the greatest concentration of potential tipping elements for global climate change.

“If set in motion, they can generate profound climate change which places the Arctic not at the periphery but at the core of the Earth system,” Professor Carlos Duarte said. “There is evidence that these forces are starting to be set in motion.”

“This has major consequences for the future of human kind as climate change progresses.”

Professor Duarte said the loss of Arctic summer sea ice forecast over the next four decades was expected to have abrupt knock-on effects in northern mid-latitudes, including Beijing, Tokyo, London, Moscow, Berlin and New York.
Research showed that the Arctic was warming at three times the global average and the loss of sea ice, which had melted faster in summer than predicted, was linked tentatively to recent extreme cold winters in Europe.

Professor Duarte said the most dangerous aspect of Arctic climate change was the risk of passing critical “tipping points”.

Arctic records showed unambiguously that sea ice volume had declined dramatically over the past two decades, Professor Duarte said. In the next 10 years, summer sea ice could be largely confined to north of coastal Greenland and Ellesmere Island, and was likely to disappear entirely by mid-century.

“Some environmental and biological elements may be linked in a domino effect of tipping points that cascade rapidly once the summer sea ice is lost,” Professor Duarte said.

However, semantic confusion masquerading as scientific debate had delayed an urgent need to start managing the reality of dangerous climate change in the Arctic, Professor Duarte said.

A drop in Arctic ice had opened new shipping routes, expanded oil, gas and mineral exploitation, increased military and research use, and led to new harbours, houses, roads, airports, power stations and other support facilities

It had triggered a new gold rush to access these resources, with recent struggles by China, Brazil and India to join the Arctic Council where the split of these resources was being discussed.

But increased deposits of black carbon (soot) from coal-burning power stations and stoves on snow and ice had accelerated warming and ice melt.

Top predators such as polar bears were declining, more methane gas was entering the atmosphere as permafrosts and submarine methane hydrates thawed, freshwater discharge had increase 30 per cent recent years and the Arctic Sea was warming faster as the ice cap melted, trapping more solar heat instead of reflecting it back into space.

In the subarctic region, dieback of the boreal forest and desiccation of peat deposits leading to uncontrolled peat fires (such as those that affected Russia in the summer of 2010) would further enhance greenhouse gas emissions.

Professor Duarte said the rate of Arctic climate change was now faster than ecosystems and traditional Arctic societies could adapt to.

The Arctic was expected to stop being a carbon dioxide sink and become a source of greenhouse gases if seawater temperatures rose 4-5ºC.

“It represents a test of our capacity as scientists, and as societies to respond to abrupt climate change,” Professor Duarte said.

“We need to stop debating the existence of tipping points in the Arctic and start managing the reality of dangerous climate change.

“We argue that tipping points do not have to be points of no return.

“Several tipping points, such as the loss of summer sea ice, may be reversible in principle − although hard in practice.

“However, should these changes involve extinction of key species − such as polar bears, walruses, ice-dependent seals and more than 1000 species of ice algae − the changes could represent a point of no return.

“Confusion distracts attention from the urgent need to focus on developing early warning indicators of abrupt climate change, address its human causes and rebuild resilience in climate, ecosystems and communities.”

Duarte’s paper was published in the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences’ journal AMBIO and a parallel commentary is available in Nature Climate Change.

Source: University of Western Australia

To contact the editor, e-mail: editor@ibtimes.com
i guess i will stay with the Fi 18" sub for awhile...lol. that was crazzzy!
Quoting wxmod:


The younger generations can do a class action lawsuit against people who intentionally wrecked their world. It will be a big, big lawsuit and even if my kid only gets a million bucks, so will 7 billion other people. That's quite a bit of dough, don't you think?


Riight...

Because $7 Quadrillion really exists, and them oil companies really have that much money to pay out.

I think you've lost your mind.

Even if a class action lawsuit somehow did happen, you'd only get about a dollar per person.
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's not a crime to produce CO2...
No, it's not. However, it is a crime to knowingly, willfully, and intentionally injure one's nation, or to harm its sovereignty. So it's already been argued that some courtroom some time in the future may very well see those accused of that crime brought before it and forced to defend their actions. And if/when that time comes, they'll have to come up with something better than, "It was just for profit, Your Honor".

A new blog entry is up, by the way.
The GFS is starting to show precip for the mid-section of the U.S.
Has The Earth Been Cooling?

Video Link
Quoting 21Jake:
Anyone seen this?

Link

Who are these so called 16 "scientists"?


Jer featured this the other day.. They have descriptions of each at the end. Some have obvious ties degree wise to things like big Ag, tech, economy & oil. Others are disgruntled by the whole political scene, like the one that lost his climate job in AU. Interesting part is they don't deny it any longer..And it is likely that more CO2 and the modest warming that may come with it will be an overall benefit to the planet..they just don't see the harm in a sudden climate shift to humans & animals. They don't address how CO2 is making the ocean suddenly acidic, effects of acid rain, sea rise or the environmental hazards.

Quoting RTSplayer:


It's not a crime to produce CO2, else they'd have to execute everyone.

You can't legislate away global warming by international law. Want to know why?

Because nobody would obey it anyway, and then if anyone tries to enforce it, they'll start World War 3.

Do you really tink anyone is going to cut their carbon production by 50% in advanced nations just to offset the improvements in world living standards in developing nations and 3rd world nations, and global population continues increasing above 10% per decade?

Not likely unless a complete revolution in energy occurs, AND Americans and Europeans get rid of the "NIMBY" attitude as it regards wind and solar systems.

You haven't seen anything yet, really.

The CO2 and methane curves lag about 16 to 20 years behind the population curve, because a person's individual contribution to pollution doesn't REALLY start to kick in until they start driving regularly, and get their first "real" job.


Not necessarily. 2 of my 3 sons now in their later 20's with real jobs burn less fossil fuel than they did as teenagers in high school. Both now live in cities and bicycle where they can't get with public transit. Neither own a car and one has never even gotten a driver's license. As teenagers they lived in the country and drove or was driven somewhere everyday. Models for the future, I hope.

As far as NIMBY goes, I'd love to see big windmills all along the top of the Blue Ridge and all along the coast. Either we destroy the mountains of Virginia and West Virginia to get at the dirty coal or we look at windmills on top of the mountains. Bring those big ones (3 Megawatts and larger) to the mountains and the coastal waters. Finally, if you are a serious wind developer and are looking for a central VA location, let's talk. That's what I think of NIMBY.
Quoting percylives:


Not necessarily. 2 of my 3 sons now in their later 20's with real jobs burn less fossil fuel than they did as teenagers in high school. Both now live in cities and bicycle where they can't get with public transit. Neither own a car and one has never even gotten a driver's license. As teenagers they lived in the country and drove or was driven somewhere everyday. Models for the future, I hope.

As far as NIMBY goes, I'd love to see big windmills all along the top of the Blue Ridge and all along the coast. Either we destroy the mountains of Virginia and West Virginia to get at the dirty coal or we look at windmills on top of the mountains. Bring those big ones (3 Megawatts and larger) to the mountains and the coastal waters. Finally, if you are a serious wind developer and are looking for a central VA location, let's talk. That's what I think of NIMBY.


we dont need no windmills on top of everything to ruin the scenery, now do we?
Quoting wxmod:


ACTUALLY,
Crimes against humanity are a world court issue and laws of the good ol usa don't apply.


Laws of the USA apply when one is in the USA.
SO who all here are "employed" by the fossil fuel industry? In your own goofy opinion?
Quoting 21Jake:
Anyone seen this?

Link

Who are these so called 16 "scientists"?


Well, they aren't the 200+ scientists who tried to submit the same type of editorial to the Wall Street Journal a in the last couple of years, only to have it denied. I'd be willing to wager that the 16 scientists have less climate science credentials than the 200+.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Well, they aren't the 200 scientists who tried to submit the same type of editorial to the Wall Street Journal a in the last couple of years, only to have it denied. I'd be willing to wager that the 16 scientists have less climate science credentials than the 200 .
Very true. Just your typical bunch of aged oil company shills, conspiracy theorists, and non-climatologists prattling on about who-knows-what...

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/30/scie ntists-challenging-climate-science-appear-to-flunk -climate-economics/?smid=tw-nytimesscience&seid=au to

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/01/29/413961/p anic-attack-murdoch-wall-street-journal-finds-16-s cientists-long-debunked-climate-lies/

http://mediamatters.org/research/201201300008
Quoting SPLbeater:


we dont need no windmills on top of everything to ruin the scenery, now do we?
If home-schooling has imparted to you any critical thinking skills, here's a good time to use them: strictly from an eyesore point of view, which is worse? Installing a white 300-foot windmill atop a lush green mountain? Or stripping that mountain of all trees, flattening it, crushing it into powder, then dumping the remaining gravel and rocks into what used to be valleys and pastoral fields between what used to be mountains?
Here we go again:

Link
How does this play out in "tornado" terms? If you add 1/2 to 3/4 degrees (F) to the global land & ocean surface temperature average, would that mean tornado outbreaks with hundreds or even thousands of tornadoes? Or just more outbreaks and more super cell tornadoes?
Quoting Xandra:
Big Oil puts $1 into Congress and gets $59 out.

when are we going to demand that the extra dollar per gallon of gas that george Bush put on a gallon of gas..be repealed? and why arent people outraged at this, gas by my area is now $3.go a gallon and predictions are in 2013 for it to go to $5.oo a gallon
"...Earth's 11th warmest year..."

Oh....you mean since 1880.

Nice sample.
This maybe my lack of knowledge or confusion, but I just don't see this as a big deal. I remember watching something a while back on National Geographic about the dinosaurs and prehistoric time frame they suggested the earth was far warmer back then than it is today. So global warming is a bad thing? Or is it better to live in a minature ice age? Okay I'm wrong. Hurricane Sandy, the droughts, and all the other weather occurences do lead me to believe that yes there are some bad side effects. I do believe in global warming but I don't really believe it's a bad thing if it's true that it has been happening through out history. It's hard to have a solid opinion about this when I hear two different stories.

Could you possibly use any more hyperbole to describe this "climate change"?

"...the downhill-rolling boulder of climate change..."

Is it any surprise that the public at large is skeptical of these scientists imploring us to "do something" (i.e. spend taxpayer money) in order to avoid an near-certain catastrophe?

Please.

First off, anyone who has taken Atmospheric & Oceanic Studies 101 knows that isolating a single, short time period and extrapolating that into the future is scientifically wrong. Especially when the measurements are not consistent and are refined on a regular basis.

Let's take the TWC-like emotion and hype out of the equation for a second: Should we all care about pollutants that are being put into our environment? Yes, certainly. Should we all do what we can to reduce these emissions? Absolutely. Are we in fact doing that? Well, according the US Energy Information Administration, cabon emmissions are at 20-year lows in the United States.

Climate scientists who jump up and down the most about global warming, using/finding data to "prove" a conclusion that they had already reached - have done the entire movement towards cleaning up the environment a huge disservice.
Our world is warming up; this can not be denied or contested.

The last ice age ended about 14,000 years ago, and accounts for the stories of the "great flood" that exist in most older religions, that story being handed down verbally until we developed written language.

From a geological standpoint we are 14,000 years into a warming cycle that will continue for about another 20,000 years, then begin cooling until we are back in an ice age like what existed 14,000 years ago. This happens over and over, within a larger cycle that lasts millions of years.

Will we go back into an ice age? Absolutely. Why? Because we are not adding new carbon, just bringing carbon that was on the surface, then buried (oil, coal, etc.)back to the surface again. We will use it all up and then we will have none, and eventually coal and oil will form again. It will take millions of years for it to reform, but it will, if the planet survives.

Now, human contribution: humans have brought back to the surface, and to the atmosphere, large quantities of carbon that were on the surface when dinosaurs roamed the earth. Everything I am told says this will "hasten" global warming by as much as 100 years. This seems to say that instead of reaching our peak heating cycle in 20,000 years (give or take) we will reach it in 19,900 years!

The point in all of this is to say that the earth is normally (based on the number of years in a condition) either much warmer or much cooler than it is today. In fact, humanity did not flourish until this temperate phase came into being, as other times were so hot or so cold that we could only exist, and that barely.

Now that our society has flourished in a temperate time we, in our hubris, have decided to keep the world this way. Sorry, it will not work; we can reduce the effect and offset the rising temperatures by 100 years, but the world is still going to get much hotter in the next thousand years, the polar ice caps will melt, sea levels will rise, coastal communities will become submerged (archeologists can find them thousands of years from now and speculate on the artifacts they find), and species will be wiped out.

Realizing that most people on this blog that will read this will be steaming at this point, why did I bother to write it?

Simply put, we need to begin to focus on how our species will survive with the inevitable warming that will take place regardless of our impact! But, as is normal for humans, we are so focused on the 1 degree of man made global warming that we completely ignore preparing our societies for the 10 or 15 degrees of natural warming!

Unless, of course, a major volcano or asteroid cools us down...but we are not prepared for that either, are we?
It is now 2013. Last 6 months SE U.S. has 4th coldest on record. No heat islands here! And, obviously no AGW. http://1.usa.gov/181PcDS