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2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:32 PM GMT on June 24, 2011

Every year extraordinary weather events rock the Earth. Records that have stood centuries are broken. Great floods, droughts, and storms affect millions of people, and truly exceptional weather events unprecedented in human history may occur. But the wild roller-coaster ride of incredible weather events during 2010, in my mind, makes that year the planet's most extraordinary year for extreme weather since reliable global upper-air data began in the late 1940s. Never in my 30 years as a meteorologist have I witnessed a year like 2010--the astonishing number of weather disasters and unprecedented wild swings in Earth's atmospheric circulation were like nothing I've seen. The pace of incredible extreme weather events in the U.S. over the past few months have kept me so busy that I've been unable to write-up a retrospective look at the weather events of 2010. But I've finally managed to finish, so fasten your seat belts for a tour through the top twenty most remarkable weather events of 2010. At the end, I'll reflect on what the wild weather events of 2010 and 2011 imply for our future.

Earth's hottest year on record
Unprecedented heat scorched the Earth's surface in 2010, tying 2005 for the warmest year since accurate records began in the late 1800s. Temperatures in Earth's lower atmosphere also tied for warmest year on record, according to independent satellite measurements. Earth's 2010 record warmth was unusual because it occurred during the deepest solar energy minimum since satellite measurements of the sun began in the 1970s. Unofficially, nineteen nations (plus the the U.K.'s Ascension Island) set all-time extreme heat records in 2010. This includes Asia's hottest reliably measured temperature of all-time, the remarkable 128.3°F (53.5°C) in Pakistan in May 2010. This measurement is also the hottest undisputed temperature anywhere on the planet except for in Death Valley, California (two hotter official records, at Al Azizia, Libya in 1922, and Tirat, Zvi Israel in 1942, have ample reasons to be disputed.) The countries that experienced all-time extreme highs in 2010 constituted over 20% of Earth's land surface area.


Figure 1. Climate Central and Weather Underground put together this graphic showing the twenty nations (plus one UK territory, Ascension Island) that set new extreme heat records in 2010.

Most extreme winter Arctic atmospheric circulation on record; "Snowmageddon" results
The atmospheric circulation in the Arctic took on its most extreme configuration in 145 years of record keeping during the winter of 2009 - 2010. The Arctic is normally dominated by low pressure in winter, and a "Polar Vortex" of counter-clockwise circulating winds develops surrounding the North Pole. However, during the winter of 2009 - 2010, high pressure replaced low pressure over the Arctic, and the Polar Vortex weakened and even reversed at times, with a clockwise flow of air replacing the usual counter-clockwise flow of air. This unusual flow pattern allowed cold air to spill southwards and be replaced by warm air moving poleward. Like leaving the refrigerator door ajar, the Arctic "refrigerator" warmed, and cold Arctic air spilled out into "living room" where people live. A natural climate pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and its close cousin, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) were responsible. Both of these patterns experienced their strongest-on-record negative phase, when measured as the pressure difference between the Icelandic Low and Azores High.

The extreme Arctic circulation caused a bizarre upside-down winter over North America--Canada had its warmest and driest winter on record, forcing snow to be trucked in for the Winter Olympics in Vancouver, but the U.S. had its coldest winter in 25 years. A series of remarkable snow storms pounded the Eastern U.S., with the "Snowmageddon" blizzard dumping more than two feet of snow on Baltimore and Philadelphia. Western Europe also experienced unusually cold and snowy conditions, with the UK recording its 8th coldest January. A highly extreme negative phase of the NAO and AO returned again during November 2010, and lasted into January 2011. Exceptionally cold and snowy conditions hit much of Western Europe and the Eastern U.S. again in the winter of 2010 - 2011. During these two extreme winters, New York City recorded three of its top-ten snowstorms since 1869, and Philadelphia recorded four of its top-ten snowstorms since 1884. During December 2010, the extreme Arctic circulation over Greenland created the strongest ridge of high pressure ever recorded at middle levels of the atmosphere, anywhere on the globe (since accurate records began in 1948.) New research suggests that major losses of Arctic sea ice could cause the Arctic circulation to behave so strangely, but this work is still speculative.


Figure 2. Digging out in Maryland after "Snowmageddon". Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.

Arctic sea ice: lowest volume on record, 3rd lowest extent
Sea ice in the Arctic reached its third lowest areal extent on record in September 2010. Compared to sea ice levels 30 years ago, 1/3 of the polar ice cap was missing--an area the size of the Mediterranean Sea. The Arctic has seen a steady loss of meters-thick, multi-year-old ice in recent years that has left thin, 1 - 2 year-old ice as the predominant ice type. As a result, sea ice volume in 2010 was the lowest on record. More than half of the polar icecap by volume--60%--was missing in September 2010, compared to the average from 1979 - 2010. All this melting allowed the Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada to open up in 2010. The Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia also opened up, and this was the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages melted open. Two sailing expeditions--one Russian and one Norwegian--successfully navigated both the Northeast Passage and the Northwest Passage in 2010, the first time this feat has been accomplished. Mariners have been attempting to sail the Northwest Passage since 1497, and have failed to accomplish this feat without an icebreaker until the 2000s. In December 2010, Arctic sea ice fell to its lowest winter extent on record, the beginning of a 3-month streak of record lows. Canada's Hudson Bay did not freeze over until mid-January of 2011, the latest freeze-over date in recorded history.


Figure 3. The Arctic's minimum sea ice extent for 2010 was reached on September 21, and was the third lowest on record. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Record melting in Greenland, and a massive calving event
Greenland's climate in 2010 was marked by record-setting high air temperatures, the greatest ice loss by melting since accurate records began in 1958, the greatest mass loss of ocean-terminating glaciers on record, and the calving of a 100 square-mile ice island--the largest calving event in the Arctic since 1962. Many of these events were due to record warm water temperatures along the west coast of Greenland, which averaged 2.9°C (5.2°F) above average during October 2010, a remarkable 1.4°C above the previous record high water temperatures in 2003.


Figure 4. The 100 square-mile ice island that broke off the Petermann Glacier heads out of the Petermann Fjord in this 7-frame satellite animation. The animation begins on August 5, 2010, and ends on September 21, with images spaced about 8 days apart. The images were taken by NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites.

Second most extreme shift from El Niño to La Niña
The year 2010 opened with a strong El Niño event and exceptionally warm ocean waters in the Eastern Pacific. However, El Niño rapidly waned in the spring, and a moderate to strong La Niña developed by the end of the year, strongly cooling these ocean waters. Since accurate records began in 1950, only 1973 has seen a more extreme swing from El Niño to La Niña. The strong El Niño and La Niña events contributed to many of the record flood events seen globally in 2010, and during the first half of 2011.


Figure 5. The departure of sea surface temperatures from average at the beginning of 2010 (top) and the end of 2010 (bottom) shows the remarkable transition from strong El Niño to strong La Niña conditions that occurred during the year. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Second worst coral bleaching year
Coral reefs took their 2nd-worst beating on record in 2010, thanks to record or near-record warm summer water temperatures over much of Earth's tropical oceans. The warm waters caused the most coral bleaching since 1998, when 16 percent of the world's reefs were killed off. "Clearly, we are on track for this to be the second worst (bleaching) on record," NOAA coral expert Mark Eakin in a 2010 interview. "All we're waiting on now is the body count." The summer 2010 coral bleaching episodes were worst in the Philippines and Southeast Asia, where El Niño warming of the tropical ocean waters during the first half of the year was significant. In Indonesia's Aceh province, 80% of the bleached corals died, and Malaysia closed several popular dive sites after nearly all the coral were damaged by bleaching. In some portions of the Caribbean, such as Venezuela and Panama, coral bleaching was the worst on record.


Figure 6. An example of coral bleaching that occurred during the record-strength 1997-1998 El Niño event. Image credit: Craig Quirolo, Reef Relief/Marine Photobank, in Climate, Carbon and Coral Reefs

Wettest year over land
The year 2010 also set a new record for wettest year in Earth's recorded history over land areas. The difference in precipitation from average in 2010 was about 13% higher than that of the previous record wettest year, 1956. However, this record is not that significant, since it was due in large part to random variability of the jet stream weather patterns during 2010. The record wetness over land was counterbalanced by relatively dry conditions over the oceans.


Figure 7. Global departure of precipitation over land areas from average for 1900 - 2010. The year 2010 set a new record for wettest year over land areas in Earth's recorded history. The difference in precipitation from average in 2010 was about 13% higher than that of the previous record wettest year, 1956. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Amazon rainforest experiences its 2nd 100-year drought in 5 years
South America's Amazon rainforest experienced its second 100-year drought in five years during 2010, with the largest northern tributary of the Amazon River--the Rio Negro--dropping to thirteen feet (four meters) below its usual dry season level. This was its lowest level since record keeping began in 1902. The low water mark is all the more remarkable since the Rio Negro caused devastating flooding in 2009, when it hit an all-time record high, 53 ft (16 m) higher than the 2010 record low. The 2010 drought was similar in intensity and scope to the region's previous 100-year drought in 2005. Drought makes a regular appearance in the Amazon, with significant droughts occurring an average of once every twelve years. In the 20th century, these droughts typically occurred during El Niño years, when the unusually warm waters present along the Pacific coast of South America altered rainfall patterns. But the 2005 and 2010 droughts did not occur during El Niño conditions, and it is theorized that they were instead caused by record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

We often hear about how important Arctic sea ice is for keeping Earth's climate cool, but a healthy Amazon is just as vital. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest takes about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, in 2005, the drought reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 16 - 22% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming.


Figure 8. Hundreds of fires (red squares) generate thick smoke over a 1000 mile-wide region of the southern Amazon rain forest in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on August 16, 2010. The Bolivian government declared a state of emergency in mid-August due to the out-of-control fires burning over much of the country. Image credit: NASA.

Global tropical cyclone activity lowest on record
The year 2010 was one of the strangest on record for tropical cyclones. Each year, the globe has about 92 tropical cyclones--called hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. But in 2010, we had just 68 of these storms--the fewest since the dawn of the satellite era in 1970. The previous record slowest year was 1977, when 69 tropical cyclones occurred world-wide. Both the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific had their quietest seasons on record in 2010, but the Atlantic was hyperactive, recording its 3rd busiest season since record keeping began in 1851. The Southern Hemisphere had a slightly below average season. The Atlantic ordinarily accounts for just 13% of global cyclone activity, but accounted for 28% in 2010--the greatest proportion since accurate tropical cyclone records began in the 1970s.

A common theme of many recent publications on the future of tropical cyclones globally in a warming climate is that the total number of these storms will decrease, but the strongest storms will get stronger. For example, a 2010 review paper published in Nature Geosciences concluded that the strongest storms would increase in intensity by 2 - 11% by 2100, but the total number of storms would fall by 6 - 34%. It is interesting that 2010 saw the lowest number of global tropical cyclones on record, but an average number of very strong Category 4 and 5 storms (the 25-year average is 13 Category 4 and 5 storms, and 2010 had 14.) Fully 21% of 2010's tropical cyclones reached Category 4 or 5 strength, versus just 14% during the period 1983 - 2007. Most notably, in 2010 we had Super Typhoon Megi. Megi's sustained winds cranked up to a ferocious 190 mph and its central pressure bottomed out at 885 mb on October 16, making it the 8th most intense tropical cyclone in world history. Other notable storms in 2010 included the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea (Category 4 Cyclone Phet in June), and the strongest tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar/Burma (October's Tropical Cyclone Giri, an upper end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds.)


Figure 9. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Thursday, June 3, 2010. Record heat over southern Asia in May helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal, and the exceptionally warm SSTs helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Phet into the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea. Phet peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds, and killed 44 people and did $700 million in damage to Oman. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007 was a stronger Arabian Sea cyclone.

A hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season: 3rd busiest on record
Sea surface temperatures that were the hottest on record over the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes helped fuel an exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The nineteen named storms were the third most since 1851; the twelve hurricanes of 2010 ranked second most. Three major hurricanes occurred in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the easternmost major hurricane on record, Karl was the southernmost major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest hurricane so far north. The formation of Tomas so far south and east so late in the season (October 29) was unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm had ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Tomas made the 2010 the 4th consecutive year with a November hurricane in the Atlantic--an occurrence unprecedented since records began in 1851.


Figure 10. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

A rare tropical storm in the South Atlantic
A rare tropical storm formed in the South Atlantic off the coast of Brazil on March 10 - 11, and was named Tropical Storm Anita. Brazil has had only one landfalling tropical cyclone in its history, Cyclone Catarina of March 2004, one of only seven known tropical or subtropical cyclones to form in the South Atlantic, and the only one to reach hurricane strength. Anita of 2010 is probably the fourth strongest tropical/subtropical storm in the South Atlantic, behind Hurricane Catarina, an unnamed February 2006 storm that may have attained wind speeds of 65 mph, and a subtropical storm that brought heavy flooding to the coast of Uruguay in January 2009. Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean, due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone.)


Figure 11. Visible satellite image of the Brazilian Tropical Storm Anita.

Strongest storm in Southwestern U.S. history
The most powerful low pressure system in 140 years of record keeping swept through the Southwest U.S. on January 20 - 21, 2010, bringing deadly flooding, tornadoes, hail, hurricane force winds, and blizzard conditions. The storm set all-time low pressure records over roughly 10 - 15% of the U.S.--southern Oregon, California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah. Old records were broken by a wide margin in many locations, most notably in Los Angeles, where the old record of 29.25" set January 17, 1988, was shattered by .18" (6 mb). The record-setting low spawned an extremely intense cold front that swept through the Southwest. Winds ahead of the cold front hit sustained speeds of hurricane force--74 mph--at Apache Junction, 40 miles east of Phoenix, and wind gusts as high as 94 mph were recorded in Ajo, Arizona. High winds plunged visibility to zero in blowing dust on I-10 connecting Phoenix and Tucson, closing the Interstate.


Figure 12. Ominous clouds hover over Arizona's Superstition Mountains during Arizona's most powerful storm on record, on January 21, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer ChandlerMike.

Strongest non-coastal storm in U.S. history
A massive low pressure system intensified to record strength over northern Minnesota on October 26, 2010, resulting in the lowest barometric pressure readings ever recorded in the continental United States, except for from hurricanes and nor'easters affecting the Atlantic seaboard. The 955 mb sea level pressure reported from Bigfork, Minnesota beat the previous low pressure record of 958 mb set during the Great Ohio Blizzard of January 26, 1978. Both Minnesota and Wisconsin set all time low pressure readings during the October 26 storm, and International Falls beat their previous low pressure record by nearly one-half inch of mercury--a truly amazing anomaly. The massive storm spawned 67 tornadoes over a four-day period, and brought sustained winds of 68 mph to Lake Superior.


Figure 13. Visible satellite image of the October 26, 2010 superstorm taken at 5:32pm EDT. At the time, Bigfork, Minnesota was reporting the lowest pressure ever recorded in a U.S. non-coastal storm, 955 mb. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Weakest and latest-ending East Asian monsoon on record
The summer monsoon over China's South China Sea was the weakest and latest ending monsoon on record since detailed records began in 1951, according to the Beijing Climate Center. The monsoon did not end until late October, nearly a month later than usual. The abnormal monsoon helped lead to precipitation 30% - 80% below normal in Northern China and Mongolia, and 30 - 100% above average across a wide swath of Central China. Western China saw summer precipitation more than 200% above average, and torrential monsoon rains triggered catastrophic landslides that killed 2137 people and did $759 million in damage. Monsoon floods in China killed an additional 1911 people, affected 134 million, and did $18 billion in damage in 2010, according to the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). This was the 2nd most expensive flooding disaster in Chinese history, behind the $30 billion price tag of the 1998 floods that killed 3656 people. China had floods in 1915, 1931, and 1959 that killed 3 million, 3.7 million, and 2 million people, respectively, but no damage estimates are available for these floods.


Figure 14. Paramilitary policemen help evacuate residents from Wanjia village of Fuzhou City, East China's Jiangxi province, June 22, 2010. Days of heavy rain burst the Changkai Dike of Fu River on June 21, threatening the lives of 145,000 local people. Image credit: Xinhua.

No monsoon depressions in India's Southwest Monsoon for 2nd time in 134 years
The Southwest Monsoon that affects India was fairly normal in 2010, bringing India rains within 2% of average. Much of the rain that falls in India from the monsoon typically comes from large regions of low pressure that form in the Bay of Bengal and move westwards over India. Typically, seven of these lows grow strong and well-organized enough to be labelled monsoon depressions, which are similar to but larger than tropical depressions. In 2010, no monsoon depressions formed--the only year besides 2002 (since 1877) that no monsoon depressions have been observed.

The Pakistani flood: most expensive natural disaster in Pakistan's history
A large monsoon low developed over the Bay of Bengal in late July and moved west towards Pakistan, creating a strong flow of moisture that helped trigger the deadly Pakistan floods of 2010. The floods were worsened by a persistent and unusually-far southwards dip in the jet stream, which brought cold air and rain-bearing low pressure systems over Pakistan. This unusual bend in the jet stream also helped bring Russia its record heat wave and drought. The Pakistani floods were the most expensive natural disaster in Pakistani history, killing 1985 people, affecting 20 million, and doing $9.5 billion in damage.


Figure 15. Local residents attempt to cross a washed-out road during the Pakistani flood catastrophe of 2010. Image credit: Pakistan Meteorology Department.

The Russian heat wave and drought: deadliest heat wave in human history
A scorching heat wave struck Moscow in late June 2010, and steadily increased in intensity through July as the jet stream remained "stuck" in an unusual loop that kept cool air and rain-bearing low pressure systems far north of the country. By July 14, the mercury hit 31°C (87°F) in Moscow, the first day of an incredible 33-day stretch with a maximum temperatures of 30°C (86°F) or higher. Moscow's old extreme heat record, 37°C (99°F) in 1920, was equaled or exceeded five times in a two-week period from July 26 - August 6 2010, including an incredible 38.2°C (101°F) on July 29. Over a thousand Russians seeking to escape the heat drowned in swimming accidents, and thousands more died from the heat and from inhaling smoke and toxic fumes from massive wild fires. The associated drought cut Russia's wheat crop by 40%, cost the nation $15 billion, and led to a ban on grain exports. The grain export ban, in combination with bad weather elsewhere in the globe during 2010 - 2011, caused a sharp spike in world food prices that helped trigger civil unrest across much of northern Africa and the Middle East in 2011. At least 55,000 people died due to the heat wave, making it the deadliest heat wave in human history. A 2011 NOAA study concluded that "while a contribution to the heat wave from climate change could not be entirely ruled out, if it was present, it played a much smaller role than naturally occurring meteorological processes in explaining this heat wave's intensity." However, they noted that the climate models used for the study showed a rapidly increasing risk of such heat waves in western Russia, from less than 1% per year in 2010, to 10% or more per year by 2100.


Figure 16. Smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow on August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

Record rains trigger Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history
Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history is now the Queensland flood of 2010 - 2011, with a price tag as high as $30 billion. At least 35 were killed. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's annual summary reported, "Sea surface temperatures in the Australian region during 2010 were the warmest value on record for the Australian region. Individual high monthly sea surface temperature records were also set during 2010 in March, April, June, September, October, November and December. Along with favourable hemispheric circulation associated with the 2010 La Niña, very warm sea surface temperatures contributed to the record rainfall and very high humidity across eastern Australia during winter and spring." In 2010, Australia had its wettest spring (September - November) since records began 111 years ago, with some sections of coastal Queensland receiving over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. Queensland has an area the size of Germany and France combined, and 3/4 of the region was declared a disaster zone.


Figure 17. The airport, the Bruce Highway, and large swaths of Rockhampton, Australia, went under water due to flooding from the Fitzroy River on January 9, 2011. The town of 75,000 was completely cut off by road and rail, and food, water and medicine had to be brought in by boat and helicopter. Image credit: NASA.

Heaviest rains on record trigger Colombia's worst flooding disaster in history
The 2010 rainy-season rains in Colombia were the heaviest in the 42 years since Colombia's weather service was created and began taking data. Floods and landslides killed 528, did $1 billion in damage, and left 2.2 million homeless, making it Colombia's most expensive, most widespread, and 2nd deadliest flooding disaster in history. Colombia's president Juan Manuel Santos said, "the tragedy the country is going through has no precedents in our history."


Figure 18. A daring rescue of two girls stranded in a taxi by flash flood waters Barranquilla, northern Colombia on August 14, 2010.

Tennessee's 1-in-1000 year flood kills 30, does $2.4 billion in damage
Tennessee's greatest disaster since the Civil War hit on May 1 - 2, 2010, when an epic deluge of rain brought by an "atmospheric river" of moisture dumped up to 17.73" of rain on the state. Nashville had its heaviest 1-day and 2-day rainfall amounts in its history, with a remarkable 7.25" on May 2, breaking the record for most rain in a single day. Only two days into the month, the May 1 - 2 rains made it the rainiest May in Nashville's history. The record rains sent the Cumberland River in downtown Nashville surging to 51.86', 12' over flood height, and the highest level the river has reached since a flood control project was completed in the early 1960s. At least four rivers in Tennessee reached their greatest flood heights on record. Most remarkable was the Duck River at Centreville, which crested at 47', a full 25 feet above flood stage, and ten feet higher than the previous record crest, achieved in 1948.


Figure 19. A portable classroom building from a nearby high school floats past submerged cars on I-24 near Nashville, TN on May 1, 2010. One person died in the flooding in this region of I-24. Roughly 200 - 250 vehicles got submerged on this section of I-24, according to wunderphotographer laughingjester, who was a tow truck operator called in to clear out the stranded vehicles.

When was the last time global weather was so extreme?
It is difficult to say whether the weather events of a particular year are more or less extreme globally than other years, since we have no objective global index that measures extremes. However, we do for the U.S.--NOAA's Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which looks at the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top 10% or bottom 10% monthly maximum and minimum temperatures, monthly drought, and daily precipitation. The Climate Extremes Index rated 1998 as the most extreme year of the past century in the U.S. That year was also the warmest year since accurate records began in 1895, so it makes sense that the warmest year in Earth's recorded history--2010--was also probably one of the most extreme for both temperature and precipitation. Hot years tend to generate more wet and dry extremes than cold years. This occurs since there is more energy available to fuel the evaporation that drives heavy rains and snows, and to make droughts hotter and drier in places where storms are avoiding. Looking back through the 1800s, which was a very cool period, I can't find any years that had more exceptional global extremes in weather than 2010, until I reach 1816. That was the year of the devastating "Year Without a Summer"--caused by the massive climate-altering 1815 eruption of Indonesia's Mt. Tambora, the largest volcanic eruption since at least 536 A.D. It is quite possible that 2010 was the most extreme weather year globally since 1816.

Where will Earth's climate go from here?
The pace of extreme weather events has remained remarkably high during 2011, giving rise to the question--is the "Global Weirding" of 2010 and 2011 the new normal? Has human-caused climate change destabilized the climate, bringing these extreme, unprecedented weather events? Any one of the extreme weather events of 2010 or 2011 could have occurred naturally sometime during the past 1,000 years. But it is highly improbable that the remarkable extreme weather events of 2010 and 2011 could have all happened in such a short period of time without some powerful climate-altering force at work. The best science we have right now maintains that human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like CO2 are the most likely cause of such a climate-altering force.

Human-caused climate change has fundamentally altered the atmosphere by adding more heat and moisture. Observations confirm that global atmospheric water vapor has increased by about 4% since 1970, which is what theory says should have happened given the observed 0.5°C (0.9°F) warming of the planet's oceans during the same period. Shifts of this magnitude are capable of significantly affecting the path and strength of the jet stream, behavior of the planet's monsoons, and paths of rain and snow-bearing weather systems. For example, the average position of the jet stream retreated poleward 270 miles (435 km) during a 22-year period ending in 2001, in line with predictions from climate models. A naturally extreme year, when embedded in such a changed atmosphere, is capable of causing dramatic, unprecedented extremes like we observed during 2010 and 2011. That's the best theory I have to explain the extreme weather events of 2010 and 2011--natural extremes of El Niño, La Niña and other natural weather patterns combined with significant shifts in atmospheric circulation and the extra heat and atmospheric moisture due to human-caused climate change to create an extraordinary period of extreme weather. However, I don't believe that years like 2010 and 2011 will become the "new normal" in the coming decade. Many of the flood disasters in 2010 - 2011 were undoubtedly heavily influenced by the strong El Niño and La Niña events that occurred, and we're due for a few quiet years without a strong El Niño or La Niña. There's also the possibility that a major volcanic eruption in the tropics or a significant quiet period on the sun could help cool the climate for a few years, cutting down on heat and flooding extremes (though major eruptions tend to increase drought.) But the ever-increasing amounts of heat-trapping gases humans are emitting into the air puts tremendous pressure on the climate system to shift to a new, radically different, warmer state, and the extreme weather of 2010 - 2011 suggests that the transition is already well underway. A warmer planet has more energy to power stronger storms, hotter heat waves, more intense droughts, heavier flooding rains, and record glacier melt that will drive accelerating sea level rise. I expect that by 20 - 30 years from now, extreme weather years like we witnessed in 2010 will become the new normal.

Finally, I'll leave you with a quote from Dr. Ricky Rood's climate change blog, in his recent post,Changing the Conversation: Extreme Weather and Climate: "Given that greenhouse gases are well known to hold energy close to the Earth, those who deny a human-caused impact on weather need to pose a viable mechanism of how the Earth can hold in more energy and the weather not be changed. Think about it."

Related blog posts
U.S. had most extreme spring on record for precipitation in 2011
Is the U.S. climate getting more extreme?

Jeff Masters

Extreme Weather Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
new report come out at 8pm i think its will be still at 20%!!
orange entering a favorable area
What's the word on the Twave out in the ATL? I saw at 2 p.m. that NHC just had it propogating westward. I suppose that SAL outbreak could get far enough south to interfere with it..... not to mention the ITCZ dipping all the way south of the equator not doing much for coriolis effect.....
yo baha, da werd is dat jiff massas be sukin so mutch dik, he dont no nuttin bout no potenshial storms n stuff, so axe me o smoky, we keep u up dated
2507. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all. I've been lurking most of the day, not feeling so well so not posting much. But I have to say, I wonder what is wrong with people who can only be happy when they make other people miserable. They must have some insipid, jealous lives to think it's fun to troll a blog. I mean, get a life already.



That's because you made fun of me today when I said I was going to have a blog. :P
2510. Grothar
Quoting bappit:

Nice pyrocumulus.


Thank you. I'm proud of it.
When does the AOI get labeled an invest? I see it's at 20% so why is it not yet labeled? What are the requirements for this?
Quoting Grothar:



That's because you made fun of me today when I said I was going to have a blog. :P
Who was joking? I'm seriously waiting to see the blog.... r u done with it yet?

LOL
2515. RTLSNK
It is raining, it is pouring, and I am wide awake and not snoring.
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LITTLE...IF ANY...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE. HOWEVER...
THESE WINDS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
2517. beell
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:
Could make a run at the hottest temperature in the world for today also.

Click for Childress, Texas Forecast

Special Statement
Mobile & Email Alerts Statement as of 3:50 PM CDT on June 26, 2011

... Temperature at the Childress Municipal Airport to approach the
city/S all-time record high this afternoon...

As of 349 PM CDT... the temperature at the Childress Municipal
Airport had reached 116 degrees. A new daily record high
temperature has already been set... with the previous record of 108
degrees being set in 1994.

This temperature is on pace to approach a more notable mark later
today. With 1 to 2 hours of daytime heating remaining... it is
possible that Childress/S all-time record high temperature of 117
degrees could be threatened by the end of today. That record was
set on June 27th 1994.

Childress... and all residents of the southeastern Panhandle are
urged to use extreme caution today during these record heat wave
conditions. Drink plenty of water and limit outdoor activities.
Check on the elderly and do not leave children or pets unattended
in vehicles.

A heat advisory is in effect through Tuesday morning


Oh for god's sake don't let that record happen!
Geez, Keeper! I'm trying to eat dinner here!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 262336
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LITTLE...IF ANY...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE. HOWEVER...
THESE WINDS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
Quoting CybrTeddy:
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LITTLE...IF ANY...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNFAVORABLE. HOWEVER...
THESE WINDS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


NHC takes the 48 hour window much more literally this year. I think many of us feel that 20% use to be their guess on the chance a system ever becomes classified and in a way they would write the TWO like that in years past

Now it seems more literal; just because the chance is low over the next 48 hours, does not mean it cannot develop.
Getting there.
Still waiting on the discussion.
on land!!
Okay, I'm not going quote any of what I just read, but it's definitely sickening!! I've been lurking on this blog since 2004 for information that I have considered valuable concerning the tropics. There's quiet a few on this blog that are very intelligent concerning the weather and especially tropical weather. I appreciate those individuals that explain the tropics in terms even me, a layman, can understand!!

This is my take concerning the problem of certain people who are trouble makers. I think Admin should not allow any non-paying member to post. I have to admit, I am currently a non-paying member, but if it stops those from posting on this blog who are here just to start trouble, then I'm all for it.

I'm aware that there are other individuals on this sight like myself that are non-paying, but this would stop the aggravation of a few. Maybe, Admin could implement a rule that all non-paying members cannot post, unless they are regular and long time posters who have not caused problems like we have witnessed today!!!!
Ey yo bloggers, dis hurikan seezon gon be a bust, n jiff massas will tell u utherwize, he clames he wuz n some flite n 2 hugo? sick lie mista massas, we kin tell frm yo blawg dat u no nuthing bout wedder or hurikanes, so u is a joke like 95% uv da peeps in hear
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
When does the AOI get labeled an invest? I see it's at 20% so why is it not yet labeled? What are the requirements for this?
there are no requirements for an invest.

It will be labeled an invest when they feel like it pretty much
2529. beell
Quoting Hurricanes101:


NHC takes the 48 hour window much more literally this year. I think many of us feel that 20% use to be their guess on the chance a system ever becomes classified and in a way they would write the TWO like that in years past

Now it seems more literal; just because the chance is low over the next 48 hours, does not mean it cannot develop.


At least in this particular case, it may be safe to say not much will be happening over land.
2530. RTLSNK
Quoting DEKRE:


Silly! Only people who have a blog of their own can ignore


No, you don't.

Click on "My quick menu" at the top of the page.

Click on "My blog", it takes you to the page where you would have a blog if you had one.

On the right side scroll down to "Modify my ignored list". Click on that.

It brings up a screen that says "ignore other blog members".

Type in the handle you want to ignore.
Click on the box below that says "update ignored list".

Bingo. They are gone from your sight.

If you want to take them off the list,
simply reverse the process. :)
Quoting tropicfreak:


Oh for god's sake don't let that record happen!


It did make it to 117 tying Fujairah, U.A.E. for hottest temperature on the planet for today, it says there that it would tie for the all-time Texas state record but Weather Historian Chris Burt says 120 was reached at Monahas on June 28, 1994 and at Seymore on August 12, 1936.



Today's State Extremes
State Highs:
Childress 117
Pecos 114
Canadian 114
Perryton 113
Borger 113
2532. beell
Quoting RTLSNK:


No, you don't.

Click on "My quick menu" at the top of the page.

Click on "My blog", it takes you to the page where you would have a blog if you had one.

On the right side scroll down to "Modify my ignored list". Click on that.

It brings up a screen that says "ignore other blog members".

Type in the handle you want to ignore.
Click on the box below that says "update ignored list".

Bingo. They are gone from your sight.

If you want to take them off the list,
simply reverse the process. :)


Didn't know that, Snake. Thanks.
troll removal complete
2534. palmpt
Gang... The noise will always be here. Admin does a fairly good job of nailing trouble makers. The ignore button works wonders... Believe me...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
troll removal complete


You da man, Keep!
Does development have to come from a tropical wave or can something spin up on it's own from the monsoonal trough ?
2538. aquak9
There is no real time, living human Admin that monitors us, ok?

It's a computer program. It only takes ten !s and ten -s to make a post disappear.

Together, we can change things, or something like that.
Quoting TomTaylor:
there are no requirements for an invest.

It will be labeled an invest when they feel like it pretty much


Thank you
Quoting aquak9:
There is no real time, living human Admin that monitors us, ok?

It's a computer program. It only takes ten !s and ten -s to make a post disappear.

Together, we can change things, or something like that.


No, No, you said it wrong! Get it right aqua!

It's, "together we change make a change!"

lol.
2541. aquak9
How about, "Together, we can chainsaw things"?
Make me eat crow if im wrong later on, but...
i believe the center is around 20.05 N ; 87.6 W
With that being said, if you follow the trade winds it goes right to the middle of the Texas coast, with this, and the Texas ridge moving back in to close the weakness, i think that if it can gain enough latitude, we could see this thing go into about 50 or so miles south of where hurricane alex came into last year, or around there.
Quoting aquak9:
How about, "Together, we can chainsaw things"?
i like it
Quoting aquak9:
There is no real time, living human Admin that monitors us, ok?

It's a computer program. It only takes ten !s and ten -s to make a post disappear.

Together, we can change things, or something like that.
Good info. Thanks
2545. Grothar
Hey, I realized we don't need mongii to get the trolls. We need Mongo

Hey Admin, Troll sweep Complete!!!!

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Does development have to come from a tropical wave or can something spin up on it's own from the monsoonal trough ?
yes, it can come from a monsoon trough.

Can also come from trough splits, upper level lows, Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs), cold core waves coming off of Africa (tropical waves), etc.
Quoting aquak9:
It only takes ten !s and ten -s to make a post disappear.


Not trying to be snarky, but - source?
If this system developes.I willhave to eat a large thing of crow.But i currently think that this will not develope.Why?.Well when it get's over the BOC it probally won't have enough time.Also TCHP isn't that much in that area.Shear should be getting unfavorable after awhile.We'll see....
2549. aquak9
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Not trying to be snarky, but - source?


I did a test post a coupla years ago, talked to ten people thru wu-mail, we counted to see how many it would take to remove my test post. It took ten exclamations, ten minuses.

See? I work my tailfeathers off for you guys. Sacrifice myself, laid out in the hot sun, dying in the face of all the WU-kingdom, just to keep this place straight.
Shear will be favorable in the gom/boc.
Quoting TomTaylor:
yes, it can come from a monsoon trough.

Can also come from trough splits, upper level lows, Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs), cold core waves coming off of Africa (tropical waves), etc.
Thanks. Just wondered. The wave just entering the Caribbean is not too shabby looking either.
2552. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
If this system developes.I willhave to eat a large thing of crow.But i currently think that this will not develope.Why?.Well when it get's over the BOC it probally won't have enough time.Also TCHP isn't that much in that area.Shear should be getting unfavorable after awhile.We'll see....


It will have a small window to develop after Tuesday. Conditions will be favorable for some development. What we are seeing now is what the old-timers used to call "throw-off" When a system interacts with land, it throws-off its convection aways from itself. Then, if conditions are right, it tries to pull it back in. This is what we are seeing right now.

Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Shear will be favorable in the gom/boc.
I said after awhile...
2554. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks. Just wondered. The wave just entering the Caribbean is not too shabby looking either.


Here is the estimated wave heights in the area.


Quoting aquak9:


I did a test post a coupla years ago, talked to ten people thru wu-mail, we counted to see how many it would take to remove my test post. It took ten exclamations, ten minuses.

See? I work my tailfeathers off for you guys. Sacrifice myself, laid out in the hot sun, dying in the face of all the WU-kingdom, just to keep this place straight.


lol, thanks for your heroism. Wonder if they've tightened up that algorithm since your test.
Quoting Grothar:


Here is the estimated wave heights in the area.


What does this signify ?
Quoting Grothar:


It will have a small window to develop after Tuesday. Conditions will be favorable for some development. What we are seeing now is what the old-timers used to call "throw-off" When a system interacts with land, it throws-off its convection aways from itself. Then, if conditions are right, it tries to pull it back in. This is what we are seeing right now.

Almost like dolly.Only dolly already had tropical storm force winds.
Quoting aquak9:
There is no real time, living human Admin that monitors us, ok?

It's a computer program. It only takes ten !s and ten -s to make a post disappear.

Together, we can change things, or something like that.


I wish there was a real live admin to take them down right away. It'd be so much better.

I hope you don't me asking, but did we have another troll attack after this morning's episode?
2559. aquak9
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


lol, thanks for your heroism. Wonder if they've tightened up that algorithm since your test.

Unknown. I ain't testing again, it's bad for WU-karma. But I know now, how it works. The power is really in OUR hands.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Almost like dolly.Only dolly already had tropical storm force winds.
Dolly was way better organized than this. When she reached the Yucatan she was a TS already. Skipped TD status. Lots more rain with her too.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Dolly was way better organized than this. When she reached the Yucatan she was a TS already. Skipped TD status. Lots more rain with her too.
That's why I said Dolly already had tropical storm force winds.When she crossed the Yucatan she got disorganized buit she came back over the Gulf.And we all know what happened next....
Quoting caneswatch:


I wish there was a real live admin to take them down right away. It'd be so much better.

I hope you don't me asking, but did we have another troll attack after this morning's episode?


(!), (-), then ignore. YOU have the power.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


(!), (-), then ignore. YOU have the power.


I always do it.

I'm not trying to say I'm lazy, but it's easier for us and them because that way we wouldn't have the people here replying to them all of the time.
2564. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What does this signify ?


The height of the wave, I think.

Here, I have a link for you.

Link
2565. beell
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's why I said Dolly already had tropical storm force winds.When she crossed the Yucatan she got disorganized buit she came back over the Gulf.And we all know what happened next....


Oz got famous.
Quoting caneswatch:


I always do it.

I'm not trying to say I'm lazy, but it's easier for us and them because that way we wouldn't have the people here replying to them all of the time.


As was said earlier in the blog, nobody's going to change anybody else's behavior. It's a self-policed blog with tools to help shield us. Some will use them, some won't.
The mongoloid got Mongii™'d!*

*Mongii® is the intellectual property of Aquak9 All rights reserved
only see the big high here!!
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


As was said earlier in the blog, nobody's going to change anybody else's behavior. It's a self-policed blog with tools to help shield us. Some will use them, some won't.


I just wish everyone knew how to use them....
look at 90west!!
2572. beell
click for full warning and graphic
WW 560
StormwatcherCI- Did you get much rain your side today? Looks like some major convection on radar( not on-island at the moment)thanks...
Quoting Grothar:


The height of the wave, I think.

Here, I have a link for you.

Link
yea but why does the wave height matter?
2575. beell
Quoting TomTaylor:
yea but why does the wave height matter?


Ocean waves. A concern for mariners.
2576. txjac
Quoting TomTaylor:
yea but why does the wave height matter?


Does it correspond in anyway to the winds in the area? Or maybe boats passing?
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look at 90west!!


850 mb. vorticity is consolidating, I believe this is a surface circulation that, if it hasn't already, is trying to develop over the Yucatan peninsula. The 10M Wind shift product, surface observations, and earlier visible satellite imagery all confirm this.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Storm2k is an excellent site with good people and good admins. Love reading that site, but I love this one as well. The people here, for the most part, are great. It's just that administration here sucks. Admins here are too busy trying to find the newest article on climate change for their new blog entry.


I understand Doc M's diversity in his blog but I generally don't allow any climate change discussion on my weather website and definitely none of the high schoolish behavior that tends to pervade this blog at times. Having said that I still love this blog, especially during hurricane season! I often find tropical weather info here to be more informative and entertaining than TWC!
Quoting beell:


Oz got famous.
and then it went too his head after that the rest is history thats all that needs to be said
2580. 7544
june 26

NOTHING !
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's easy for me.Click.Ignore.Done.


I think instead of the ratings and filters and karma we should just be able to report messages as abusive or offensive and use the iggy list for unwanted posts or annoying individuals.
Quoting txjac:


Does it correspond in anyway to the winds in the area? Or maybe boats passing?
it does correspond to winds.

Wave heights are determined by three things.

1. Wind speed - how fast the wind is blowing
2. Wind duration - how long the winds been blowing
3. Wind fetch - size of the area the wind is blowing over

The waves on grothar's animation are from the trade winds.

Quoting beell:


Ocean waves. A concern for mariners.
I was just wondering if it had anything to do with our system in the Caribbean.
2583. txjac
Thanks Tom!
Quoting 7544:
june 26

NOTHING !


2008 didn't see its first in season storm to develop until first week of July (excluding arthur) 2004 had Alex in August, 2002 had Arthur in July.. ect.

Perfectly normal to have no named storms in June,
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2008 didn't see its first in season storm to develop until first week of July (excluding arthur) 2004 had Alex in August, 2002 had Arthur in July.. ect.

Perfectly normal to have no named storms in June,


Exactly.
well its certainly gotten boring on here.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2008 didn't see its first in season storm to develop until first week of July (excluding arthur) 2004 had Alex in August, 2002 had Arthur in July.. ect.

Perfectly normal to have no named storms in June,
we may only see 1 or 2 in july, its from 15th august till 20th sept you need to worry about the most. thats the peak of the season right there.
2589. beell
Quoting TomTaylor:
it does correspond to winds.

Wave heights are determined by three things.

1. Wind speed - how fast the wind is blowing
2. Wind duration - how long the winds been blowing
3. Wind fetch - size of the area the wind is blowing over

The waves on grothar's animation are from the trade winds.

I was just wondering if it had anything to do with our system in the Caribbean.


A sign of a tightening pressure gradient between surface ridging over the eastern GOM (or to be more accurate, between Cuba and the Yucatan) and the lower pressure associated with the monsoon. Strong (oops) SE winds. So there would seem to be a relationship.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
well its certainly gotten boring on here.
give it a minute there was a bad run for awhile
Quoting aquak9:
There is no real time, living human Admin that monitors us, ok?

It's a computer program. It only takes ten !s and ten -s to make a post disappear.

Together, we can change things, or something like that.


Should take at least 30.
Quoting 7544:
june 26

NOTHING !


Very intelligent post. Way to bring some real value to this blog.
2593. aquak9
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Should take at least 30.


Why should it take at least thirty, Oz? On a slow Sunday afternoon, might not be that many folks here. I think ten's enough.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Still waiting on the discussion.
...im here,now what would. you like to discuss??,lol
well, lets look at a pretty visual....



Quake swarm as per usual.

Essentially the entire American side of the Souris river is now at levels above record stage.

2597: EEWWW! Never again.
2599. aquak9
Why doesn't Press have any toes? Are they like, paddle feet? Alien feet?

He's got no toes!
P-cola Dan Check these out NOGAPS

Link

CMC

Link
2601. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:




i no i no



we can talk about this







you did ask what you like too talk about


Ahh!
My eyes burn!

XD
2602. scott39
Why isnt there an Invest yet?
Quoting JLPR2:


Ahh!
My eyes burn!

XD



LOL
Quoting aquak9:
Why doesn't Press have any toes? Are they like, paddle feet? Alien feet?

He's got no toes!


really slim feet....maybe AAAA"s.....lol....maybe the panty hose has'em squashed...
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Quake swarm as per usual.

Essentially the entire American side of the Souris river is above record stage.


Canada too. Started up in Saskatchewan and headed back to Canada this week.

Sixty-five homes in Souris are being evacuated as rising floodwaters continue to inch toward the Manitoba town.

With water from the Souris River predicted to peak on July 6, Souris emergency crews are racing to build up the dikes protecting the town.
Quoting Tazmanian:




i no i no



we can talk about this







you did ask what you like too talk about


Not again Taz!!!!
Quoting PensacolaNative:
P-cola Dan Check these out NOGAPS

Link

CMC

Link


Well that sucks. I don't like you any more. :)
hey all dont look at me LOL


Quoting stillwaiting:
...im here,now what would. you like to discuss??,lol
Okay, we have something to look forward too after the BOC system. The NOGAPS is indicating that a trough split could occur as early as 96 hours from now, then intensify. CMC is also starting to hint at this possibility. The GFS was earlier in the very long run predicting this would happen too, but has since backed off. No other models at this time show that happening.
Quoting scott39:
Didnt we used to date?



LOL
According to the vortmax the developing center is near
90.5 West ; 19.7 North
This means the center is emerging into the BOC soon, and then it should sit over moderate shear tomorrow, and 30 C waters, then conducive conditions and 30 C waters on t, then on wednesday
So we have the CMC, ECMWF, NGP, and potentially the GFS all in alignment for development of at least a tropical depression once again.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Well that sucks. I don't like you any more. :)


Still OK for July 4th and The Blues.... If you trust the models....
According to the vortmax the developing center is near
90.5 West ; 19.7 North
This means the center is emerging into the BOC soon, and then it should sit over moderate shear tomorrow, and 30 C waters, then conducive conditions and 30 C waters on tuesday, then on wednesday be in 30 C waters and conducive waters for most of the day, then go over Mexico in the night.
Tonight: 20%
Tomorrow: 30 to 40%
Tomorrow night: 50%
Wednesday: 70 to 90%
Thursday: over mexico
How about this, Taz?

Though I don't think it has feet either...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM 17N28W TO
8N31W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LIE JUST W OF A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY
W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING
FROM 19N55W TO 12N59W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OF WHICH THE SRN EXTENT IS
ALREADY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
61W-70W...AND FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 56W-60W. STRONG ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SE CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD INTO THE
BASIN.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS DOWN THE WRN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO 15N93W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT
COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE SRN GULF. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE ENTIRE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND
THE SE GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-88W INCLUDING WRN CUBA. EXPECT
MOIST CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
OVER THE SRN GULF AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW INTO THE SW
GULF.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So we have the CMC, ECMWF, NGP, and potentially the GFS all in alignment for development of at least a tropical depression once again.


we are not going to get a tropical storm from moderate shear!!
Quoting superpete:
StormwatcherCI- Did you get much rain your side today? Looks like some major convection on radar( not on-island at the moment)thanks...
Just a light drizzle today.
I am very chagrined to learn that the blog has disintegrated today, to a new low level of attack and besmirching and name calling. True the tropics are quiet, but this behavior must stop! I say IT must stop!
Quoting beell:


A sign of a tightening pressure gradient between surface ridging over the eastern GOM and the lower pressure associated with the monsoon. Strong (oops) SE winds. So there would seem to be a relationship.
yea, you mean between the Azores/Bermuda ridge which has spread west over to SE US and the monsoon trough, right?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So we have the CMC, ECMWF, NGP, and potentially the GFS all in alignment for development of at least a tropical depression once again.
Sweet

Sure hope we get something. Drought relief and a boredom relief
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:


we are not going to get a tropical storm from moderate shear!!


Wind shear has been lowering the area the AOI will enter, and it is only at 20 knots right now.
2624. beell
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Okay, we have something to look forward too after the BOC system. The NOGAPS is indicating that a trough split could occur as early as 96 hours from now, then intensify. CMC is also starting to hint at this possibility. The GFS was earlier in the very long run predicting this would happen too, but has since backed off. No other models at this time show that happening.


Indeed! A genuine trough split in the NOGAPS. The GFS keeps the western ridge strong and only maintains the weakness in the ridging SW to NE across FL and (modified)is not strong enough to generate any split in vorticity at the trough base.

Good call, CT.
2625. beell
Quoting TomTaylor:
yea, you mean between the Azores/Bermuda ridge which has spread west over to SE US and the monsoon trough, right?


Sure. More specifically, the gradient tightens up between Cuba and the Yucatan. SE surface winds respond in turn over a fairly long fetch and the seas kick up and stay up nearly all the way to coastal TX/NE Mex.
Quoting BahaHurican:
How about this, Taz?

Though I don't think it has feet either...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM 17N28W TO
8N31W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LIE JUST W OF A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY
W OF THE AXIS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING
FROM 19N55W TO 12N59W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OF WHICH THE SRN EXTENT IS
ALREADY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
61W-70W...AND FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 56W-60W. STRONG ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SE CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD INTO THE
BASIN.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS DOWN THE WRN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO 15N93W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT
COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE SRN GULF. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE ENTIRE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND
THE SE GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-88W INCLUDING WRN CUBA. EXPECT
MOIST CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
OVER THE SRN GULF AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW INTO THE SW
GULF.




ok cool
blog starting too be come a little buging
Quoting blsealevel:


Link


That's the 12z, what was posted is the 18z.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Hey Taz, has the air cleared out of your room from last nights gas problems?



LOL yes


Quoting PcolaDan:


Well that sucks. I don't like you any more. :)


Hear hear! I will be down there on Wed night through the 4th so I don't need any storms coming to P'cola! I want sun (a bit of rain is fine).
Quoting aquak9:
Why doesn't Press have any toes? Are they like, paddle feet? Alien feet?

He's got no toes!


mantis/human hybrid
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's the 12z, what was posted is the 18z.


Yep Sure was
firefox 6.0 beta 1 comes july 5th
Move on there is nothing to see here at this time.
look for Firefox 8.0 Beta in SEP and Firefox 9.0 Aurora all so we may see firefox 10 nighty in SEP has well





oh think will be at firefox 12 or 15 by the end of the year
Quoting Tazmanian:
look for Firefox 8.0 Beta in SEP and Firefox 9.0 Aurora all so we may see firefox 10 nighty in SEP has well





oh think will be at firefox 12 or 15 by the end of the year


Will there be as many Firefox iterations as Call of Duty games?
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/ted-turner-climate- change-most-serious-m

Another scientist joins the parade.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Just a light drizzle today.

really because at work and in west bay the heavens opened up and it was pouring
Quoting KoritheMan:


Will there be as many Firefox iterations as Call of Duty games?




am not sure



am in love with firefox
Quoting twincomanche:
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/ted-turner-climat e- change-most-serious-m

Another scientist joins the parade.

The confusion displayed by many right here on this board is understandable. As Turner himself said: "It's really easy to understand how some people don't get it because it's so complex and complicated."
this think in 2004 we starting talking about firefox 1 now here we are in 2011 now we have firefox 5 and many more on the way
Quoting Neapolitan:

The confusion displayed by many right here on this board is understandable. As Turner himself said: "It's really easy to understand how some people don't get it because it's so complex and complicated."
The trouble with a one track mind is its narrow gauge and lack of switching facilities.
Quoting Neapolitan:

The confusion displayed by many right here on this board is understandable. As Turner himself said: "It's really easy to understand how some people don't get it because it's so complex and complicated."

True dat
Okay I'm not a forecaster, weatherman, or even pretend to think I know something about trying to predict the weather. I'm looking at the water vapor loop, and is that dry air from the Florida panhandle extending all the way to below the Tx/Mex border? And it looks to me as everything that is south of the dry air is trying to move East. So if this wave makes it into the BOC, how is going to continue moving west? Is High pressure going to move further south and steer it that way? Just asking a question, not making a forecast or saying that it will turn more towards the east.
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Okay I'm not a forecaster, weatherman, or even pretend to think I know something about trying to predict the weather. I'm looking at the water vapor loop, and is that dry air from the Florida panhandle extending all the way to below the Tx/Mex border? And it looks to me as everything that is south of the dry air is trying to move East. So if this wave makes it into the BOC, how is going to continue moving west? Is High pressure going to move further south and steer it that way? Just asking a question, not making a forecast or saying that it will turn more towards the east.


There is currently a weakness, although weak now, between the area of high pressure located in Texas/Mexico and the high pressure located out in the Central Atlantic. This is what has allowed this wave to move further WNW than expected. However, once this wave enters the BOC, high pressure should begin to build back in, and force the wave westward.
Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:

True dat
Hey Neo I hope you listen to this rocket scientist and then tell me you think he's not mostly a nut job?
"Earth facing mini-ice age!!" say the media. Now for the science....
Quoting Tazmanian:
more trolls?


Are you referring to the Climate Change debaters? Not trolls, though the similarities are quite numerous.
2655. skook
Quoting Tazmanian:
more trolls?




This is one of the reasons why trolls keep coming back. You are the bait on their fishing line, and they know they have a catch...


No need to make comments like this at all.

2655. skook 8:05 PM PDT on June 26, 2011 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
more trolls?





This is one of the reasons why trolls keep coming back. You are the bait on their fishing line, and they know they have a catch...


No need to make comments like this at all.




you be came # 19 on my POOFER list
Quoting CatfishJones:


Are you referring to the Climate Change debaters? Not trolls, though the similarities are quite numerous.



oh ok
An exceptional post Dr. Masters!

No where have I seen a breakdown of the year's weather events such as this.

It was a professional breakdown that lays even further the realized need for us as a people to unite to create plenty: food, water, housing, music, art, dance, sports, culture.

This existence is a miracle. Have some fun everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Patrick Troup
Quoting twincomanche:
Taz has poofed so many people that it's a wonder he sees anyone.


ok lol
Quoting Trouper415:
An exceptional post Dr. Masters!

No where have I seen a breakdown of the year's weather events such as this.

It was a professional breakdown that lays even further the realized need for us as a people to unite to create plenty: food, water, housing, music, art, dance, sports, culture.

This existence is a miracle. Have some fun everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Patrick Troup



hi long time no see
2662. skook
Quoting Tazmanian:

2655. skook 8:05 PM PDT on June 26, 2011 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:
more trolls?





This is one of the reasons why trolls keep coming back. You are the bait on their fishing line, and they know they have a catch...


No need to make comments like this at all.




you be came # 19 on my POOFER list




thats fine. I pretty much just keep to myself, but seeing this blog have so many tools to fight the unwanted posts, and certain people ignore these options day after day gets pretty frustrating.
Quoting Trouper415:
Have some fun everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Patrick Troup


Nay. Join The War On Fun.
Quoting twincomanche:
Hey Neo I hope you listen to this rocket scientist and then tell me you think he's not mostly a nut job?

Turner never claimed to be a scientist; he's just a person expressing his opinion, and because he's been so successful in life and business, people tend to listen to him. And his comments about denialists holding up climate change remediation are spot-on, of course, no matter how big a "nut job" some may find him to be.
Night all.
Quoting skook:




thats fine. I pretty much just keep to myself, but seeing this blog have so many tools to fight the unwanted posts, and certain people ignore these options day after day gets pretty frustrating.


+1

(!), (-), ignore. It's so simple.
2668. alfabob
From earlier

current
I'm out, too; big day tomorrow. But before I go, I wanted to link to this Excellent article in Rolling Stone. I suggest everyone read the entire piece when they have a chance:

Climate of Denial: Can science and the truth withstand the merchants of poison?

Admittedly, the contest over global warming is a challenge for the referee because it's a tag-team match, a real free-for-all. In one corner of the ring are Science and Reason. In the other corner: Poisonous Polluters and Right-wing Ideologues.

The referee -- in this analogy, the news media -- seems confused about whether he is in the news business or the entertainment business. Is he responsible for ensuring a fair match? Or is he part of the show, selling tickets and building the audience? The referee certainly seems distracted: by Donald Trump, Charlie Sheen, the latest reality show -- the list of serial obsessions is too long to enumerate here.

But whatever the cause, the referee appears not to notice that the Polluters and Ideologues are trampling all over the "rules" of democratic discourse. They are financing pseudoscientists whose job is to manufacture doubt about what is true and what is false; buying elected officials wholesale with bribes that the politicians themselves have made "legal" and can now be made in secret; spending hundreds of millions of dollars each year on misleading advertisements in the mass media; hiring four anti-climate lobbyists for every member of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. (Question: Would Michael Jordan have been a star if he was covered by four defensive players every step he took on the basketball court?)

This script, of course, is not entirely new: A half-century ago, when Science and Reason established the linkage between cigarettes and lung diseases, the tobacco industry hired actors, dressed them up as doctors, and paid them to look into television cameras and tell people that the linkage revealed in the Surgeon General's Report was not real at all. The show went on for decades, with more Americans killed each year by cigarettes than all of the U.S. soldiers killed in all of World War II.

This time, the scientific consensus is even stronger. It has been endorsed by every National Academy of science of every major country on the planet, every major professional scientific society related to the study of global warming and 98 percent of climate scientists throughout the world. In the latest and most authoritative study by 3,000 of the very best scientific experts in the world, the evidence was judged "unequivocal."

Entire Rolling Stone Article...

(And, yes, it's authored by none other than Al Gore, so I know everyone will be interested.)
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm out, too; big day tomorrow. But before I go, I wanted to link to this Excellent article in Rolling Stone. I suggest everyone read the entire piece when they have a chance:

Climate of Denial: Can science and the truth withstand the merchants of poison?

Admittedly, the contest over global warming is a challenge for the referee because it's a tag-team match, a real free-for-all. In one corner of the ring are Science and Reason. In the other corner: Poisonous Polluters and Right-wing Ideologues.

The referee -- in this analogy, the news media -- seems confused about whether he is in the news business or the entertainment business. Is he responsible for ensuring a fair match? Or is he part of the show, selling tickets and building the audience? The referee certainly seems distracted: by Donald Trump, Charlie Sheen, the latest reality show -- the list of serial obsessions is too long to enumerate here.

But whatever the cause, the referee appears not to notice that the Polluters and Ideologues are trampling all over the "rules" of democratic discourse. They are financing pseudoscientists whose job is to manufacture doubt about what is true and what is false; buying elected officials wholesale with bribes that the politicians themselves have made "legal" and can now be made in secret; spending hundreds of millions of dollars each year on misleading advertisements in the mass media; hiring four anti-climate lobbyists for every member of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. (Question: Would Michael Jordan have been a star if he was covered by four defensive players every step he took on the basketball court?)

This script, of course, is not entirely new: A half-century ago, when Science and Reason established the linkage between cigarettes and lung diseases, the tobacco industry hired actors, dressed them up as doctors, and paid them to look into television cameras and tell people that the linkage revealed in the Surgeon General's Report was not real at all. The show went on for decades, with more Americans killed each year by cigarettes than all of the U.S. soldiers killed in all of World War II.

This time, the scientific consensus is even stronger. It has been endorsed by every National Academy of science of every major country on the planet, every major professional scientific society related to the study of global warming and 98 percent of climate scientists throughout the world. In the latest and most authoritative study by 3,000 of the very best scientific experts in the world, the evidence was judged "unequivocal."

Entire Rolling Stone Article...

(And, yes, it's authored by none other than Al Gore, so I know everyone will be interested.)



AL and Rolling Stones............LOL....NICE!
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm out, too; big day tomorrow. But before I go, I wanted to link to this Excellent article in Rolling Stone. I suggest everyone read the entire piece when they have a chance:

Climate of Denial: Can science and the truth withstand the merchants of poison?

Admittedly, the contest over global warming is a challenge for the referee because it's a tag-team match, a real free-for-all. In one corner of the ring are Science and Reason. In the other corner: Poisonous Polluters and Right-wing Ideologues.

The referee -- in this analogy, the news media -- seems confused about whether he is in the news business or the entertainment business. Is he responsible for ensuring a fair match? Or is he part of the show, selling tickets and building the audience? The referee certainly seems distracted: by Donald Trump, Charlie Sheen, the latest reality show -- the list of serial obsessions is too long to enumerate here.

But whatever the cause, the referee appears not to notice that the Polluters and Ideologues are trampling all over the "rules" of democratic discourse. They are financing pseudoscientists whose job is to manufacture doubt about what is true and what is false; buying elected officials wholesale with bribes that the politicians themselves have made "legal" and can now be made in secret; spending hundreds of millions of dollars each year on misleading advertisements in the mass media; hiring four anti-climate lobbyists for every member of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. (Question: Would Michael Jordan have been a star if he was covered by four defensive players every step he took on the basketball court?)

This script, of course, is not entirely new: A half-century ago, when Science and Reason established the linkage between cigarettes and lung diseases, the tobacco industry hired actors, dressed them up as doctors, and paid them to look into television cameras and tell people that the linkage revealed in the Surgeon General's Report was not real at all. The show went on for decades, with more Americans killed each year by cigarettes than all of the U.S. soldiers killed in all of World War II.

This time, the scientific consensus is even stronger. It has been endorsed by every National Academy of science of every major country on the planet, every major professional scientific society related to the study of global warming and 98 percent of climate scientists throughout the world. In the latest and most authoritative study by 3,000 of the very best scientific experts in the world, the evidence was judged "unequivocal."

Entire Rolling Stone Article...

(And, yes, it's authored by none other than Al Gore, so I know everyone will be interested.)
Thanks nea.
I'll read the link. Then go to sleep myself.
We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Intresting the 0z NAM slows down the system in the gom and it has a landfall around after midnight on thursday and possibly as a 45-50 mph storm

2677. beell




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THROUGH E-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 560...

VALID 270306Z - 270430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 560 CONTINUES.

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT NEXT COUPLE HOURS IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
NRN MO AND EXTREME E-CNTRL MO. THE THREAT PERSIST FOR DAMAGING
WIND...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OVER MO DISSIPATED AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION INCREASED WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT OTHER
STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE MCS/S. DESPITE
THE STRONG CAP...IT APPEARS THAT MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG THE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MCV CIRCULATION MAY SUSTAIN THESE STORMS NEXT
FEW HOURS. MCS FROM CNTRL IA INTO SERN NEB IS MOVING INTO NWRN MO
WITH DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. STORMS ON SRN END OF THIS LINE HAVE
MAINTAINED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...AND GIVEN LARGE HODOGRAPHS
WITH 0-1 KM SRH FROM 300+ M2/S2...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE
. THE OTHER BOW ECHO SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH WRN IL...AND
SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO BACKBUILD SLIGHTLY INTO EXTREME
ERN MO AS IT DEVELOPS SEWD. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF WW 560 APPEARS UNLIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 06/27/2011
2678. bappit
The CIMSS vorticity map has the 850 mb vorticity maximum coming off the Yucatan and partly over the Bay of Campeche.
2679. alfabob
EPAC is sucking the life out of that wave, can see rotation consolidating right around where I drew that white line (93w, 17n).
2680. beell
2315 UNK CHAMBLEE
DEKALB GA 3389 8430
MORE THAN A DOZEN TREES DOWN. DETAILS UNAVAILBLE DUE TO CALL VOLUME. (FFC)

probably was kinda noisy.
HATE TO TRY AND BRING THIS BACK AROUND TO THE WEATHER....but,

anyone seeing ANYTHING weird south east of Florida, East of Haiti just above the Virgin Islands?

-WHAT EVER- it is, it looks to be picking up allot of moister from the developing "storm" that not "expected" to develop that is heading in to the Gulf over the Yucatan Peninsula.

That thing south east of Florida btw has another system just to the east of it that boiling out as it is heading west also.

maybe the season is about to start?
More about the Merchants of Doubt

Answering Climate Change Skeptics
Quoting houston144:
HATE TO TRY AND BRING THIS BACK AROUND TO THE WEATHER....but,

anyone seeing ANYTHING weird south east of Florida, East of Haiti just above the Virgin Islands?

-WHAT EVER- it is, it looks to be picking up allot of moister from the developing "storm" that not "expected" to develop that is heading in to the Gulf over the Yucatan Peninsula.

That thing south east of Florida btw has another system just to the east of it that boiling out as it is heading west also.

maybe the season is about to start?


All that weather is in association with an upper level low in the region enhancing shower and thunderstorm action over the Lesser Antilles interacting with a tropical wave.
2684. 19N81W
things seems very quiet.....unable to organize...
Quoting beell:
2315 UNK CHAMBLEE
DEKALB GA 3389 8430
MORE THAN A DOZEN TREES DOWN. DETAILS UNAVAILBLE DUE TO CALL VOLUME. (FFC)

probably was kinda noisy.


It took me forever to figure out how to turn the volume down on my phone too.
here we go!!
Quoting skook:




This is one of the reasons why trolls keep coming back. You are the bait on their fishing line, and they know they have a catch...


No need to make comments like this at all.


+1
Quoting alfabob:
EPAC is sucking the life out of that wave, can see rotation consolidating right around where I drew that white line (93w, 17n).


I pretty much agree with your analysis here. Latest low level convergence analysis shows mass convergence happening over Southern Mexico and the Eastern Pacific south of the Bay of Campeche. The tropical wave just exiting the Yucatan is struggling now with low level divergence which explains the lack of deep convection over the Yucatan tonight.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
"Earth facing mini-ice age!!" say the media. Now for the science....


I really enjoyed that, thank you!
Quoting Neapolitan:

I don't believe that Dr. Masters "found" this blog post; he wrote it based on observation of simple facts.

Just out of curiosity: how many of those complaining about the administrative response to trolls during off-business hours are paid members? And of those who aren't, how many click on the ads they see?


I never implied that Dr. Masters found this blog post. I implied that he was busy researching new material for his new blog posts. I know you are huge on climate change, but just know that I wasn't taking a shot at those who believe it is occurring. Also, if you'll go back and check, I said that I refuse to pay this site because of the fact that Admins do a poor job of policing the blog. I've been a member here for 5 years, and I've had the same reason for not paying the whole time. Even then, I still might do it some day because of the advanced weather tools this site provides.
Quoting 19N81W:
things seems very quiet.....unable to organize...


Barring this current system (which I'm still not expecting much from), I'd say we have until at least the second week of July, possibly even later than that, the last few days of month, before things really start picking up.

Previously, I thought things would pick up in the next 10 days, because of the eastern Atlantic tropical wave encountering more favorable upper level winds across the western Caribbean. However, the global models have gradually become less aggressive with that feature.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Barring this current system (which I'm still not expecting much from), I'd say we have until at least the second week of July, possibly even later than that, the last few days, before things really start picking up.

Previously, I thought things would pick up in the next 10 days, because of the eastern Atlantic tropical wave encountering more favorable upper level winds across the western Caribbean. However, the models have gradually become less aggressive with that feature.


Eh, models miss a lot of developments in the long term. No reason to write off the next 2 weeks because the models don't see anything.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Barring this current system (which I'm still not expecting much from), I'd say we have until at least the second week of July, possibly even later than that, the last few days, before things really start picking up.

Previously, I thought things would pick up in the next 10 days, because of the eastern Atlantic tropical wave encountering more favorable upper level winds across the western Caribbean. However, the models have gradually become less aggressive with that feature.


Actually, the models are starting to show a trough split off the W coast of Florida this week, Thursday and Friday. 18z NOGAPS indicated this was a possibility, same with the 12z CMC.
I disagree the one of the atlantic side is becoming the domiant one the epac one to weak...also vorticity says otherwise too
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
I disagree the one of the atlantic side is becoming the domiant one the epac one to weak...also vorticity says otherwise too


There is nothing becoming dominant on the Pacific side at all. The most dominant vorticity remains over the Yucatan and will move out over the Bay of Campeche later tonight, just as models have been portraying. The only influence the Pacific side will have will be to add more energy into the Gulf system.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
I disagree the one of the atlantic side is becoming the domiant one the epac one to weak...also vorticity says otherwise too


With absolutely no convergence with the Atlantic side and quite hostile upper level winds coming over top the system, you're going to be hard pressed to get any development there.

In addition, low level vorticity is in fact strongest over the Eastern Pacific side of Mexico.
still has upper divergence through
and....
Quoting MississippiWx:


There is nothing becoming dominant on the Pacific side at all. The most dominant vorticity remains over the Yucatan and will move out over the Bay of Campeche later tonight, just as models have been portraying. The only influence the Pacific side will have will be to add more energy into the Gulf system.


Quite difficult to get development in the Bay of Campeche from this system when its struggling with low level divergence (moisture and inflow moving out from the system), quite unfavorable upper level winds, and deep ridging building over Texas bringing more subsidence into the Western Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


With absolutely no convergence with the Atlantic side and quite hostile upper level winds coming over top the system, you're going to be hard pressed to get any development there.

In addition, low level vorticity is in fact strongest over the Eastern Pacific side of Mexico.


20 knots isn't terribly destructive, and are predicted to decrease but it does have competition in the EPAC.
Quoting MississippiWx:


There is nothing becoming dominant on the Pacific side at all. The most dominant vorticity remains over the Yucatan and will move out over the Bay of Campeche later tonight, just as models have been portraying. The only influence the Pacific side will have will be to add more energy into the Gulf system.

thats bascially what I'm seeing.
Another Record "Shattered"

Souris River crests in North Dakota, surging past 1881 mark

The river peaked at slightly more than 1,561.7 feet above sea level late Saturday or early Sunday, 4 feet above the record level it reached in 1881.
USAToday

In 1881 you did not had all these dams too...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


There is currently a weakness, although weak now, between the area of high pressure located in Texas/Mexico and the high pressure located out in the Central Atlantic. This is what has allowed this wave to move further WNW than expected. However, once this wave enters the BOC, high pressure should begin to build back in, and force the wave westward.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


There is currently a weakness, although weak now, between the area of high pressure located in Texas/Mexico and the high pressure located out in the Central Atlantic. This is what has allowed this wave to move further WNW than expected. However, once this wave enters the BOC, high pressure should begin to build back in, and force the wave westward.


Thank You
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Quite difficult to get development in the Bay of Campeche from this system when its struggling with low level divergence (moisture and inflow moving out from the system), quite unfavorable upper level winds, and deep ridging building over Texas bringing more subsidence into the Western Gulf of Mexico.


It's not like anyone was planning on this developing tonight. Models don't seem to believe that the Pacific system will be much of a threat in the next day or two.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
still has upper divergence through


Upper divergence means nothing without low level inflow coming into the system.
Shear is high in the gom now but its slowly decrasing away
sorry didn't mean to quote that twice, fumbling bumbling fingers i reckon.
Well yeah, obviously the models could reinvigorate the EATL wave in subsequent runs, which is why I'm still watching it. The forecast upper-level pattern across the western Caribbean at that time is a bit concerning.

Cyber, I hadn't noticed the trough split. Guess I was focused entirely too much on the BoC system, and the aforementioned tropical wave. Sometimes these things slip my attention temporarily. :P

Anyway, my forecast isn't just based on the models; it's also based on the climatology of neutral years. With the exception of a few years like 1979, 1990, and 1996, many neutral years since 1950 did not typically see the onset of the season (by that I mean a flurry of storms one after the other, not something like a stray June storm, ala Arlene in 1999) until late July or early August.
Quoting MississippiWx:


It's not like anyone was planning on this developing tonight. Models don't seem to believe that the Pacific system will be much of a threat in the next day or two.

excatly
Quoting CybrTeddy:


20 knots isn't terribly destructive, and are predicted to decrease but it does have competition in the EPAC.


You're looking at more like 30 knots of wind shear.
Quoting MississippiWx:


It's not like anyone was planning on this developing tonight. Models don't seem to believe that the Pacific system will be much of a threat in the next day or two.


I don't think either disturbance will become a threat really. I'm no longer optimistic about the chances for the Yucatan disturbance to develop.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


You're looking at more like 30 knots of wind shear.
i saw 35 knots wind shear
Quoting cchsweatherman:


You're looking at more like 30 knots of wind shear.


Once again, this was never supposed to develop tonight. Shear is bad right now, but should subside late tomorrow into Tuesday.

posted in the wrong page lol
2715. alfabob
What happened was the monsoon flow was to strong while the EPAC system had 200mb winds down on the western side. This organized the inflow and allowed the monsoon trough not to progress as far north except for the point at which the vorticity is forming. It had 850mb vorticity until it moved on land, but managed to keep a strong 500mb vorticity. That is why low level convergence has shifted to the EPAC side because it has inhibited any 500-700mb winds from wrapping around on the Atlantic side.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I don't think either disturbance will become a threat really. I'm no longer optimistic about the chances for the Yucatan disturbance to develop.


Well, write it off if you wish, but using nowcasts isn't very wise. With the system coming to a crawl over the BOC in the next two to three days, it's anyone's guess.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
something is wrong with him tonight not like yourself


Gonna guess you're referring to me?
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, write it off if you wish, but using nowcasts isn't very wise. With the system coming to a crawl over the BOC in the next two to three days, it's anyone's guess.

if it takes its time in the boc then there is a good possiblilty it may become Arline.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I don't think either disturbance will become a threat really. I'm no longer optimistic about the chances for the Yucatan disturbance to develop.


Seems like the models have been iffy here...sort of back and forth... I appreciate your knowledge and opinion! Can you expound a bit for us learners?
2720. TXEER
Sounds like a few of you are going to be disappointed if a cyclone doesn't develop.

Do you like train crashes as well?
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, write it off if you wish, but using nowcasts isn't very wise. With the system coming to a crawl over the BOC in the next two to three days, it's anyone's guess.


If I was writing off this system, then I would say I don't expect development. Just not seeing much in the current conditions nor in the computer models that really sells me on development. In two or three days time, it will be coming ashore in Mexico.
for someone else sorry have lots of tabs open lost count where I was
Quoting alfabob:
What happened was the monsoon flow was to strong while the EPAC system had 200mb winds down on the western side. This organized the inflow and allowed the monsoon trough not to progress as far north except for the point at which the vorticity is forming. It had 850mb vorticity until it moved on land, but managed to keep a strong 500mb vorticity. That is why low level convergence has shifted to the EPAC side because it has inhibited any 500-700mb winds from wrapping around on the Atlantic side.


After looking over some vort maps, along with convergence maps, I think you're right about there being a little competition. However, just because the two are competing doesn't mean our system in the BOC won't develop. There is still a strong area of 850mb vorticity on the Atlantic side. The Pacific side still doesn't have an area of solid 850mb vort. If I'm not mistaken, all of this has been predicted by the models. The disturbed area eventually consolidates in the BOC and moves into MX as a TD or TS.
Quoting TXEER:
Sounds like a few of you are going to be disappointed if a cyclone doesn't develop.

Do you like train crashes as well?


If it doesn't develop at all severely drought stricken Mexico and Texas continues to not get rain and the situation just gets worse and worse. They need a TS.
Quoting TXEER:
Sounds like a few of you are going to be disappointed if a cyclone doesn't develop.

Do you like train crashes as well?


Ummm, no. Haven't seen where anyone will be disappointed. It's called debating. Some people are thinking it has a chance, some are thinking it doesn't.
2726. TXEER
Quoting CybrTeddy:


If it doesn't develop at all severely drought stricken Mexico and Texas continues to not get rain and the situation just gets worse and worse. They need a TS.

Agreed...I live in Houston but I'm not wishing for a cyclone...Ike was enough for me!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


If it doesn't develop at all severely drought stricken Mexico and Texas continues to not get rain and the situation just gets worse and worse. They need a TS.

we definity do :(
If I told everyone that the disgusting troll attack this morning wasn't JFV, would you believe me?????

Btw, Nice and clear again today, no rain since we had 15in in 4 days a few weeks ago.

I'm off to work. WU-mail me if you want to how I know it wasn't JFV. I'll reply later tonight.
Cheers AussieStorm.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


If it doesn't develop at all severely drought stricken Mexico and Texas continues to not get rain and the situation just gets worse and worse. They need a TS.


Even if this system were to develop, there's very little hope, if any, for rainfall from this system to move into Texas as the building ridge will not only force the system into Mexico, but suppress all the moisture over Mexico as well.
Quoting TXEER:
Sounds like a few of you are going to be disappointed if a cyclone doesn't develop.

Do you like train crashes as well?


I can't speak for everyone, but as a weather enthusiast, I do indeed enjoy seeing storms develop, because I love tracking them. I love weather. It's my life. And you know something? I am not ashamed to admitting the above. This is my passion, and something I would not trade for anything.

I should clarify that I do not enjoy the inevitable death and destruction these systems bring. But my personal philosophy is, since that is something that is entirely out of my control, I am not obligated to feel guilt or shame in my enjoyment of such storms.
Have a nice day Aussie! :)
Quoting AussieStorm:
If I told everyone that the disgusting troll attack this morning wasn't JFV, would you believe me?????

Btw, Nice and clear again today, no rain since we had 15in in 4 days a few weeks ago.

I'm off to work. WU-mail me if you want to how I know it wasn't JFV. I'll reply later tonight.
Cheers AussieStorm.


LOL...Hey, Teddy. Maybe it wasn't JFV after all.
shear map!!
2734. alfabob
Quoting MississippiWx:


After looking over some vort maps, along with convergence maps, I think you're right about there being a little competition. However, just because the two are competing doesn't mean our system in the BOC won't develop. There is still a strong area of 850mb vorticity on the Atlantic side. The Pacific side still doesn't have an area of solid 850mb vort. If I'm not mistaken, all of this has been predicted by the models. The disturbed area eventually consolidates in the BOC and moves into MX as a TD or TS.

At first I was thinking there would be two invests, but both areas got too close to one another. The wave had potential, but the same thing happened with the last wave and monsoon feature. I think the CMC had the best predictions though, it predicted the EPAC being the dominate side until it got around its current position; and then made it into the GOM. There is enough energy for this still to happen, all depends on shear and steering conditions over the next 24hrs.

Quoting TXEER:

Agreed...I live in Houston but I'm not wishing for a cyclone...Ike was enough for me!


How about Erin? You need something like those, not too strong but rather a large yet weak slow-moving TD/TS, that would help the drought without causing too much damage.
Wow, this blog seems to have become addicted to JFV... seems to have become the folklore of the blog...

Ignore him, the more you go on about him or any troll, the more satisfaction they get. Talk about weather... there is an ignore button for everything else!
G'mroning, all, =(.
Quoting AussieStorm:
If I told everyone that the disgusting troll attack this morning wasn't JFV, would you believe me?????

Btw, Nice and clear again today, no rain since we had 15in in 4 days a few weeks ago.

I'm off to work. WU-mail me if you want to how I know it wasn't JFV. I'll reply later tonight.
Cheers AussieStorm.


Your email left me in a state of absolute disbelief and very much in tears as well. I'm distraught after having read it. Anyhow, this is an inappropriate topic for this blog. I'll private message you about it, as soon as I can, WOW, =(.

Have a good day over there, my friend!
i saw winds shear of 40 knots!!
Quoting TropicalDevestation:


Your email left me in a state of absolute disbelief and very much in tears as well. I'm distraught after having read it. Anyhow, this is an inappropriate topic for this blog. I'll private message you about it, as soon as I can, WOW, =(.

Have a good day over there, my friend!


Welcome to the board, new user. Please don't let the trolls get to you, that's what they thrive on. Just ignore them and eventually they will go away. Again welcome to the board as a new user and hope you enjoy it...
Quoting druseljic:


Welcome to the board, new user. Please don't let the trolls get to you, that's what they thrive on. Just ignore them and eventually they will go away. Again welcome to the board as a new user and hope you enjoy it...


Are you serious? You are talking to THE troll, JFV.
2743. beell
I never really have looked at this as an EPAC/Caribbean thing. Instead, as a single entity with low-mid level vorticity popping up here and there around the periphery. No stealing, robbing, competition, or sucking of energy going on. Just a broad, westward drifting circulation that entrained a tropical wave.

Most us of us might agree from past experience that consolidation into a single focused circulation (storm) from the monsoonal trough within the small confines of the western Atlantic basin is never a quick process. I don't think the transition from a monsoon circulation to a storm is a quick process in the wide open ocean either.

A well established monsoon is evident to at least 700mb so I would track it from this level.

06/27 03Z 700mb vorticity.

Photobucket

00Z 700mb GFS @06Z
click to open in a new window



Hey, I could be wrong.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Are you serious? You are talking to THE troll, JFV.


Seriously, now I need to do a (I will admit I had an idea) and hide.

The intention was good anyway! LOL
Quoting druseljic:


Seriously, now I need to do a (I will admit I had an idea) and hide.

The intention was good anyway! LOL


LOL...It's all good.
2746. alfabob
Quoting beell:
I never really have looked at this as an EPAC/Caribbean thing. Instead, as a single entity with low-mid level vorticity popping up here and there around the periphery. No stealing, robbing, competition, or sucking of energy going on. Just a broad, westward drifting circulation that entrained a tropical wave.

Most us of us might agree from past experience that consolidation into a single focused circulation (storm) from the monsoonal trough within the small confines of the western Atlantic basin is never a quick process. I don't think the transition from a monsoon circulation to a storm is a quick process in the wide open ocean either.

A well established monsoon is evident to at least 700mb so I would track it from this level.

06/27 03Z 700mb vorticity.

Photobucket

00Z 700mb GFS @06Z
click to open in a new windowHey, I could be wrong.

Throughout different times in the last 24 hours.
500mb

850mb
Quoting druseljic:


Welcome to the board, new user. Please don't let the trolls get to you, that's what they thrive on. Just ignore them and eventually they will go away. Again welcome to the board as a new user and hope you enjoy it...




you this welcome back JFV lol
the tropics appear very quiet. Models do not show anything coming over the next seven days.
Quoting TampaSpin:
the tropics appear very quiet. Models do not show anything coming over the next seven days.



downcaster?



lol this kinding may be your right then oh nos?




well night all
2750. beell
Quoting alfabob:

Throughout different times in the last 24 hours.
500mb

850mb


I modified my post with one short sentence:

"Spanning both basins".
might want to check that again unless your fooling with us.
2752. alfabob
Quoting beell:


I modified my post with one short sentence:

"Spanning both basins".

Ha that works, or a mess of convection; this was kind of expected from the beginning though. I still think there is a 30% chance in the next 48 hours in the BOC though, so in the end the Atlantic could get the name if necessary.
2753. beell
Quoting alfabob:

Ha that works, or a mess of convection; this was kind of expected from the beginning though. I still think there is a 30% chance in the next 48 hours in the BOC though, so in the end the Atlantic could get the name if necessary.



Cool. Just in case this was not clear;

I never really have looked at this as an EPAC/Caribbean thing. Instead, as a single entity...
00z gfs develops it into a weak ts and moves very slowly then around 84-90 hrs it jumps se lol
2755. beell
20% is very generous!
I'll go with 11%.
Nite all.

: - )
Quoting druseljic:


Welcome to the board, new user. Please don't let the trolls get to you, that's what they thrive on. Just ignore them and eventually they will go away. Again welcome to the board as a new user and hope you enjoy it...


Thanks for the heads up, and yes, I will be weary of that! I came across this forum because I enjoy meteorology, hopefully I'll enjoy it, =).
I just purchased Dragon naturally speaking 11home edition! Wow does this work nice. I just wrote this entire paragraph using this voice recognition program in about 5 seconds.
there is an abundance of moisture in the Caribbean currently as shear drops things will start popping soon! Keep in mind that the Caribbean is the breeding ground for tropical storms in June.
200 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY...THEY COULD
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
REGION SURROUNDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY...THEY COULD
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
REGION SURROUNDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


2761. Levi32
MJO forecasts from the UKMET and GFS are going big with the phase strength into octants 8 and 1 for the next two weeks. Expect more threats at tropical development during early July.

2762. alfabob
Quoting Levi32:
MJO forecasts from the UKMET and GFS are going big with the phase strength into octants 8 and 1 for the next two weeks. Expect more threats at tropical development during early July.


So basically its found a new home?

00z cmc back with a tampico landfall maybe 45-50 mph ts
2764. alfabob
I'm keeping my forecast the same (don't feel like redrawing it).

Quoting TXEER:
Sounds like a few of you are going to be disappointed if a cyclone doesn't develop.

Do you like train crashes as well?
there's a difference between a landfalling cyclone and one heading out harmlessly to sea.

I enjoy watching storms form and intensify because I am a weather enthusiast. Something about the awesome and intense raw power of a storm and how it all works really fascinates me.

But I do not enjoy the death and destruction, which can, but does not always, accompany storms.

So there is a difference. And a storm forming right now would be a good thing since the area it is forecasted to hit, should it actually develop, is in a serious drought...so landfalling storms are not always bad.
Quoting beell:
I never really have looked at this as an EPAC/Caribbean thing. Instead, as a single entity with low-mid level vorticity popping up here and there around the periphery. No stealing, robbing, competition, or sucking of energy going on. Just a broad, westward drifting circulation that entrained a tropical wave.

Most us of us might agree from past experience that consolidation into a single focused circulation (storm) from the monsoonal trough within the small confines of the western Atlantic basin is never a quick process. I don't think the transition from a monsoon circulation to a storm is a quick process in the wide open ocean either.

A well established monsoon is evident to at least 700mb so I would track it from this level.

06/27 03Z 700mb vorticity.

Photobucket

00Z 700mb GFS @06Z
click to open in a new window



Hey, I could be wrong.
agreed
Can the trains be Drones and set on a collision course with highspeed cameras taping? In that case, YES, I would LOVE to see that train crash.
The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southern Adams County in west central Illinois...
Calhoun County in southwest Illinois...
Pike County in west central Illinois...
southern Marion County in northeast Missouri...
eastern Monroe County in northeast Missouri...
northern Pike County in northeast Missouri...
Ralls County in northeast Missouri...

* until 145 am CDT

* at 104 am CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe squall line capable of producing brief rain-wrapped
tornadoes in addition to widespread straight line wind damage.
These dangerous storms were located along a line extending from
Warren to Monroe City to Santa Fe... and moving east at 70 mph.
Damaging straight line winds in excess of 80 mph are also
likely with this line of storms.

* Locations impacted include...
Palmyra... Hannibal... Bowling Green... Louisiana... Pittsfield...
Perry... Rensselaer... Spaulding... center... New London...
Spencerburg... Fall Creek... Frankford... Payson... Curryville...
Barry... Pike... Beverly... Atlas and Pleasant Hill.
Quoting Levi32:
MJO forecasts from the UKMET and GFS are going big with the phase strength into octants 8 and 1 for the next two weeks. Expect more threats at tropical development during early July.


This predicted MJO looks epicly.If this would happen for whole month(it isn't impossible),I expect 3-4 named storms
2770. alfabob
Two southbound winds on this ASCAT, still hasn't updated the higher resolution images for this spot though.
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

This predicted MJO looks epicly.If this would happen for whole month(it isn't impossible),I expect 3-4 named storms
Intersting... when do you see the beginning of this trend? The MJO is definitely coming our way... TIA
Quoting Levi32:
MJO forecasts from the UKMET and GFS are going big with the phase strength into octants 8 and 1 for the next two weeks. Expect more threats at tropical development during early July.

dang...Not only does that forecast keep it in our basin, it strengthens it...to just about as strong of a signal as you can get.
Quoting druseljic:
Intersting... when do you see the beginning of this trend? The MJO is definitely coming our way... TIA

In very near time,possibly beginning with this monsoonal circulation all are talking about.I think it will be at least a TD
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

In very near time,possibly beginning with this monsoonal circulation all are talking about.I think it will be at least a TD


With my learning level of knowledge I tend to agree, conditions do seem to be coming to favor in the near future...
2775. alfabob
Amazing post Dr. M. Thank you. It does seem like we're approaching the end of the world, doesn't it? But I don't believe in that 2012 garbage. I feel like it's possible within my lifetime, though. (but not likely)
0z ecmwf picks it up again 72 hr
Sunset, although in a way I never dreamed I would see in my lifetime (on Mars) Link
Quoting druseljic:
Sunset, although in a way I never dreamed I would see in my lifetime (on Mars) Link


very cool
new low in the Bay of Campeche



Quoting cchsweatherman:


With absolutely no convergence with the Atlantic side and quite hostile upper level winds coming over top the system, you're going to be hard pressed to get any development there.

In addition, low level vorticity is in fact strongest over the Eastern Pacific side of Mexico.


I think vorticity is greater with the Atlantic system. Although the vmax is higher in the epac, the area of moderate positive vorticity (yellow and oranges) is much larger with the Atlantic system.

2782. Xandra
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm out, too; big day tomorrow. But before I go, I wanted to link to this Excellent article in Rolling Stone. I suggest everyone read the entire piece when they have a chance:

Climate of Denial: Can science and the truth withstand the merchants of poison?

Admittedly, the contest over global warming is a challenge for the referee because it's a tag-team match, a real free-for-all. In one corner of the ring are Science and Reason. In the other corner: Poisonous Polluters and Right-wing Ideologues.

The referee -- in this analogy, the news media -- seems confused about whether he is in the news business or the entertainment business. Is he responsible for ensuring a fair match? Or is he part of the show, selling tickets and building the audience? The referee certainly seems distracted: by Donald Trump, Charlie Sheen, the latest reality show -- the list of serial obsessions is too long to enumerate here.

But whatever the cause, the referee appears not to notice that the Polluters and Ideologues are trampling all over the "rules" of democratic discourse. They are financing pseudoscientists whose job is to manufacture doubt about what is true and what is false; buying elected officials wholesale with bribes that the politicians themselves have made "legal" and can now be made in secret; spending hundreds of millions of dollars each year on misleading advertisements in the mass media; hiring four anti-climate lobbyists for every member of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. (Question: Would Michael Jordan have been a star if he was covered by four defensive players every step he took on the basketball court?)

This script, of course, is not entirely new: A half-century ago, when Science and Reason established the linkage between cigarettes and lung diseases, the tobacco industry hired actors, dressed them up as doctors, and paid them to look into television cameras and tell people that the linkage revealed in the Surgeon General's Report was not real at all. The show went on for decades, with more Americans killed each year by cigarettes than all of the U.S. soldiers killed in all of World War II.

This time, the scientific consensus is even stronger. It has been endorsed by every National Academy of science of every major country on the planet, every major professional scientific society related to the study of global warming and 98 percent of climate scientists throughout the world. In the latest and most authoritative study by 3,000 of the very best scientific experts in the world, the evidence was judged "unequivocal."

Entire Rolling Stone Article...

(And, yes, it's authored by none other than Al Gore, so I know everyone will be interested.)

Very good article! Thanks Nea!
Quoting winter123:
Amazing post Dr. M. Thank you. It does seem like we're approaching the end of the world, doesn't it? But I don't believe in that 2012 garbage. I feel like it's possible within my lifetime, though. (but not likely)

It's very likely to have an ARTIFICIAL doomsday scenario in our lifetime.
2784. SQUAWK
Has the blog died?
The Las Conchas Fire is burning out of control within a mile of Los Alamos National Laboratory, forcing its closure today. Looks to be a healthy blaze; click here for a webcam view that clearly shows smoke and flame.
2786. IKE
5 day QPF.....


2787. MahFL
New low = doomcom 10 !!!!

Last 4 days hee in NE FL, we had a good forcast for rain, we got no measurable rain :(
2788. FLdewey
Is the court of wild speculation in session yet?
"...the 2,000-foot berm at the Fort Calhoun Nuclear Station dramatically collapsed on Sunday.
...the reactor-shutdown cooling[and]the spent fuel pool cooling...power supply was cut after water surrounded the main electrical transformers, the NRC said.
Emergency generators powered the plant on Sunday while workers tried to restore power."
So who thought it was a good idea to locate the FortCalhounNuclearPowerPlant in a flood plain?

And why is the NRC insistent on spinning the story to "Nothing to see here. Everything is just fine..."?
They screwed up BIG TIME; most recently when the NRC renewed the operating license without even bothering to check whether the powerplant still met the engineering standards required for approval of the initial startup way back when.
Screwing up is bad, but to err is human. Admit it, fix it.
Denying the screwup is flat out delusional, which is the opposite of a comforting thought
Quoting Levi32:
MJO forecasts from the UKMET and GFS are going big with the phase strength into octants 8 and 1 for the next two weeks. Expect more threats at tropical development during early July.



Thanks Levi!
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Las Conchas Fire is burning out of control within a mile of Los Alamos National Laboratory, forcing its closure today. Looks to be a healthy blaze; click here for a webcam view that clearly shows smoke and flame.
use to snow ski there great mountain they had a massive blaze a couple yrs ago think the fuel is limited
Quoting SQUAWK:
Has the blog died?




now you look here we cant all ways we be on here evere one have there own life and not all ways have time too blog we all dont have too be on here at all but we donat 1hr or 2 of are time too come on here and blog so we all dont have time to baby set SQAWK and this keep chating a way if you want that i would think about going too other site or some in has i said we cant all ways be on here chating we have are own life too take care of there more importin things in life then this blog like keeping up with bills working druing the day makeing sure the house is clean up and yeard so on and so on a lot of us dont evere have the time some time too chat a way on this blog so you better be happy that have all have the time this too do the chating on this blog that we have time for be come we dont have too be on here at all
Quoting aspectre:
"The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission confirmed the 2,000-foot berm at the Fort Calhoun Nuclear Station dramatically collapsed on Sunday.
...the reactor shutdown cooling or the spent fuel pool coolinf...the power supply was cut after water surrounded the main electrical transformers, the NRC said.
Emergency generators powered the plant on Sunday while workers tried to restore power." So exactly who thought it was a good idea to locate the Fort Calhoun Nuclear Power Plant in a flood plain?

And why is the NRC so insistent on spinning the story to "Nothing to see here, people. Everything is just fine..."?
They screwed up BIG TIME, most recently when the NRC renewed the operating license without even bothering to check whether the powerplant still met the engineering standards required for approval of the initial startup way back when.
Screwing up is bad, but to err is human. Admit it, fix it.
Denying the screwup is flat out delusional, which is the opposite of a comforting thought

Pretty amazing. We are being treated like we're stupid either because a) the NRC believes that we're stupid, or b) we really are. I'll go with 'c': both of the above.

I found it funny that a week ago the berm was touuted as a stout line of defense against flooding. Now that the half-mile berm failed, they started saying, "The berm wasn't important anyway; it was just a redundancy, and things are just fine."

An additional 1" to 2" of rain fell over the area in the past 24 hours. But it's really no big deal...
After a disappointing June, it's finally warm!

Up to 29C max here alone according to WU (84F) and it was pretty good yesterday. May be up to the 90s in the London area.

Might get some thunderstorms later, though. One site saying CAPE values up to 2000j/kg and a LI of -8. In American terms, I suppose that's not too bad, but for us, that's high on both accounts.

Our thunderstorms are usually pathetic, though, so I expect to miss them, either by their non-appearance or because I'll blink.

Sadly the heat won't last.
the new low in the boc might help out eventually the drought in the sw
2796. MahFL
Quoting islander101010:
the new low in the boc might help out eventually the drought in the sw


It won't help much if it goes to Mexico.
Quoting Cotillion:
After a disappointing June, it's finally warm!

Up to 29C max here alone according to WU (84F) and it was pretty good yesterday. May be up to the 90s in the London area.

Might get some thunderstorms later, though. One site saying CAPE values up to 2000j/kg and a LI of -8. In American terms, I suppose that's not too bad, but for us, that's high on both accounts.

Our thunderstorms are usually pathetic, though, so I expect to miss them, either by their non-appearance or because I'll blink.

Sadly the heat won't last.


Mornin Cotillion....hope things are well across the pond!!
not sure what the nhc is looking there there is nothing there
Quoting MahFL:


It won't help much if it goes to Mexico.
hopefully it will make it up to the rio grande valley and move wnw
wow!!!!!!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
2804. IKE

Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
I notice how they seem to be delaying favorable. Looks headed for Mexico as a rain maker. Hopefully no flooding though.
TXEER "Sounds like a few of you are going to be disappointed if a cyclone doesn't develop.
Do you like train crashes as well?
"

We're creepy and we're kooky, mysterious and spooky. We're altogether ooky, the WUber Family.




more at this link


Link


2808. hydrus
Quoting hydrus:


Serious SAL
june will likey end with 0-0-0
2811. hydrus
Quoting weatherh98:


Serious SAL
Typical for this time of year. Healthy wave over Africa though...
All the dust and sand is a good thing!!!???? Im beginning to think this is going to be a very quiet season.......I hope!!! Famous last words????
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAIL. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-71W. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES SW...AND THE WAVE MOVES W PLACING IT UNDER DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT...STRONGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD FLARE UP
OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.



I think we need to watch this wave as it reaches further west too.
2814. hydrus
Quoting weatherh98:


Serious SAL
I believe this will get a name in two or three days..jmo
Ive got a feeling we will be securing sailboats along Galveston Bay at least once this season......We do need the rain....
Quoting hydrus:
I believe this will get a name in two or three days..jmo
Rob @ Crownweather is saying he thinks the best shot at TD or TS will begin Tuesday.
Not expecting much from that tropical low in TX, NM, or AZ.... air patterns not favorable at this time.


2818. hydrus
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Rob @ Crownweather is saying he thinks the best shot at TD or TS will begin Tuesday.
Good morning to you. Hope you are doing well..Texas mets are watching closely for possible drought relieving rains from this system. Does not look to good on the CMC.
Quoting Tazmanian:
june will likey end with 0-0-0
This would not surprise me at all. I'm wondering if we are more likely to see something mid July ish as opposed to right now. Things are just seeming to begin to get favorable this and next week.... so maybe nothing of serious note before 4-10 July...
2820. hydrus
Quoting beeleeva:
Ive got a feeling we will be securing sailboats along Galveston Bay at least once this season......We do need the rain....
I think your right. This system is positioned farther north then originally anticipated...
upper low near the panhandle should help funnel more moisture over fl.
06z GFS had a 1004 mb low, same with the 00z ECMWF in the BOC.

CMC had a TS this run on the 00z, 1002 mb low.


This is appearing to be much different from 94L, as the models are once again all coming on back aboard.
2823. hydrus
2824. hydrus
Quoting beeleeva:
All the dust and sand is a good thing!!!???? Im beginning to think this is going to be a very quiet season.......I hope!!! Famous last words????
The dust usually dies down after July. Twaves have been pretty healthy so far. I'm expecting a pretty normal start to the season closer to 1 Aug... likely just before or shortly after....

IOW... so far season is on schedule. As pat would say, make sure u have ur preps done if u r in the 'cane zone....
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning to you. Hope you are doing well..Texas mets are watching closely for possible drought relieving rains from this system. Does not look to good on the CMC.
I am doing good. We had "some" rain from it but not as much as I expected. It doesn't look very good to me and I would be shocked if it does develop. 94L actually looked more organized to me. The next wave which just entered the eastern Caribbean might have a chance but IDK.
Quoting beeleeva:
All the dust and sand is a good thing!!!???? Im beginning to think this is going to be a very quiet season.......I hope!!! Famous last words????
dust in july is normal wait to aug.
You'd be surprised by how much SAL bursts we get on average in June and how active those season can still be. SAL in June means almost nothing as it will always die down.
Stormwatcher, I was just about to ask how ur water situation is... we've been getting some rain [at last] but nothing like normally seen in Jun.... makes me wonder if we should expect a wetter than usual July.....

On the current AOI, I'm not expecting it to get to much more than depression status.... and likely to go to MX.... pity SW TX isn't in the running right now.... though one can hope for change.... LOL....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Stormwatcher, I was just about to ask how ur water situation is... we've been getting some rain [at last] but nothing like normally seen in Jun.... makes me wonder if we should expect a wetter than usual July.....

On the current AOI, I'm not expecting it to get to much more than depression status.... and likely to go to MX.... pity SW TX isn't in the running right now.... though one can hope for change.... LOL....
Here you go :) RAIN DETAILS
Now Rain Today 0.00 in.
Rain Yesterday 0.01 in.
Rain So Far This Month 3.43 in.
Rain So Far This Year 6.88 in.
2831. hydrus
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am doing good. We had "some" rain from it but not as much as I expected. It doesn't look very good to me and I would be shocked if it does develop. 94L actually looked more organized to me. The next wave which just entered the eastern Caribbean might have a chance but IDK.
Looks like there is a twist in there..
Well, at least the monthly total is looking up... lol. Jeez... 1/2 the year's total in this month alone. I haven't looked at ours recently, but I have a feeling the profile is similar, albeit with a little higher total than 6.88 inches....

Anyway, I gotta run. I'll see u guys later....
2833. hydrus
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Here you go :) RAIN DETAILS
Now Rain Today 0.00 in.
Rain Yesterday 0.01 in.
Rain So Far This Month 3.43 in.
Rain So Far This Year 6.88 in.
This is not going to be a fast mover. It looks like it will stall near the Mexican coast...


Vorticity moving into the BOC now.



But shear looks pretty strong there.



Doesn't look to be decreasing right now either.

Time will tell.
beeleeva "I've got a feeling we will be securing sailboats along Galveston Bay at least once this season......We do need the rain...."
2820 hydrus "I think your right. This system is positioned farther north then original"

Been thinking the same myself for the last 24. Not the "going as far north as Houston" part, but the center-I've-been-seeing* seemed perfectly positioned for the collision between the storm-mass and the heights of the YucatanPeninsula to induce a spin.
Kinda like walking along not paying attention to what's ahead, smacking your left shoulder against a lamppost, and your own momentum spins ya counterclockwise.

* Which has not been necessarily the center that everyone else sees, but rather where my attention has been focused upon as the center-of-mass.
Good Morning. Nice to see the Blog back to normal after what I saw yesterday afternoon.....Agree that we might get into July before we might see something spin up in earnest.......June, and July,climatology is pretty tough to beat even though tropics watchers are always looking for those occasional anomaly storms or something out of the norm.....Guess it's back to the models for now depending on what happens in a few days in the BOC.
Quoting BahaHurican:
The dust usually dies down after July. Twaves have been pretty healthy so far. I'm expecting a pretty normal start to the season closer to 1 Aug... likely just before or shortly after....

IOW... so far season is on schedule. As pat would say, make sure u have ur preps done if u r in the 'cane zone....


Well said. Here in PR,a wave is moving thru right now,that is combining with a trough in the area,is causing some gusty winds and heavy showers with thunder.
Finally i can relax and have a troll free day!
Pre-Invest doesn't look good.
Quoting Vincent4989:
Finally i can relax and have a troll free day!
Pre-Invest doesn't look good.


TBH were you honestly expecting it too? Its been over the Yucatan for a few more days and if it does develop it will be right before landfall in Mexico mid this week..
2841. myway
Geoffery......is there a small spin @ 20/70?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Well said. Here in PR,a wave is moving thru right now,that is combining with a trough in the area,is causing some gusty winds and heavy showers with thunder.

It's cloudy and gusty here. Good Morning, I guess.
2843. FLdewey
Quoting beeleeva:
All the dust and sand is a good thing!!!???? Im beginning to think this is going to be a very quiet season.......I hope!!! Famous last words????


Taz... we need... ummm.... the chart.
No relief for the weary :(

HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

WITH WARM CORE RIDGING STUCK TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD WORSEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WITH THE RIDGES RETROGRESSION INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGHS SHOULD REACH 120 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHOULD DRAW LITTLE...IF ANY...GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS /A MONSOON LIKE REGIME/ FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON TO CONFORM SOMEWHAT BETTER TO THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

Quoting myway:
Geoffery......is there a small spin @ 20/70?


From the TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N61W
TO 10N64W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE ERN EDGE OF
AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE
ERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 59W-67W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN
62W-65W. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING S TOWARDS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE CONVECTION.
2846. kwgirl
Good morning all. Well we finally got more than a drop of rain in Key West on Saturday evening. At least in my part of town. I was doing laundry and heard something at the back door. I open it to find the wind blowing(measured at 45MPH) and rain. Since the rain was blowing into the doorway, I closed the door and rushed to the front door so I could go out and dance in the rain. It wasn't raining out front! I live in a 14 x 60 mobile home. LOL. Later on there was some moisture on my car and I even saw a few standing puddles the next day. The animals finally got their drink of water, after 4-5 months. Of course we need more, so I am hope casting that this wave in the BOC at least pushes some rain my way. Have a great day everyone!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It's cloudy and gusty here. Good Morning, I guess.


i dont get it 27 days into thequietest part of the seasonand people are sayin its a bust2011 is a bust.... it doesnt make sense
Quoting weatherh98:
i dont get it 27 days into thequietest part of the seasonand people are sayin its a bust2011 is a bust.... it doesnt make sense


Well, they were doing it last year too before and just after Alex. They do it every season because either they're trolls or lack patience, and they've never been right, not even in 2009 which got active at some point. 2010 though they were completely and utterly blown away though.
Quoting weatherh98:
i dont get it 27 days into thequietest part of the seasonand people are sayin its a bust2011 is a bust.... it doesnt make sense


It makes total sense if you had been following the Blog for past 6 years............ :)
2851. FLdewey
And any storm that forms will be doing so just like the K storm or the A storm... funny how those are the only 2 storms in history.

Tomorrow, on "as the blog turns"
2852. FLdewey
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


It makes total sense if you had been following the Blog for past 6 years............ :)

You can actually set your watch to it... more accurate than a quartz movement.
Good morning
I'm watching the flood in North Dakota and wondering if anyone here has seen any recent satellite image of the Minot area showing the extent of the flooding?
The days are getting shorter and winter is approaching, get ready
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Good morning
I'm watching the flood in North Dakota and wondering if anyone here has seen any recent satellite image of the Minot area showing the extent of the flooding?

Haven't seen any sat views but a ND television facebook page has hundreds of pictures, many of them aerial.
Almost 1/3 of the population is evacuated. The city is split in two, north and south.
Quoting Levi32:
MJO forecasts from the UKMET and GFS are going big with the phase strength into octants 8 and 1 for the next two weeks. Expect more threats at tropical development during early July.

...more????,have we had a tropical "threater"yet this yr????,lol
Haven't heard anything about this fire until this morning. Hard to get a good grasp on how serious it is.
Link

"SANTA FE, New Mexico (Reuters) - Voluntary evacuations have been issued for Los Alamos, including the Los Alamos National Laboratory, which is threatened by a fast-moving wildfire that broke out in northern New Mexico on Sunday, authorities said.
The Las Conchas Fire flared early Sunday afternoon around 12 miles southwest of Los Alamos, charring about 3,500 acres and endangering the nation's nuclear weapons laboratory and its surrounding communities, said Lawrence Lujan, a spokesman for the Santa Fe National Forest.
"We have homes and we have the labs, so it's a very, very big concern, not only locally but nationally and globally," Lujan said."
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 27th, with Video


Good Morning, Levi. Thanks for the update. If the European has it right, and a depression does form and makes landfall somewhere in central Mexico, where would all that moisture go? Is it possible for it to get pulled into Texas or is it just too early to tell? Tia.
2860. Levi32
Quoting muddertracker:


Good Morning, Levi. Thanks for the update. If the European has it right, and a depression does form and makes landfall somewhere in central Mexico, where would all that moisture go? Is it possible for it to get pulled into Texas or is it just too early to tell? Tia.


Unfortunately probably not. That ridge over Texas won't be going anywhere soon, and by the time it does move, the moisture from our little system will probably be all gone.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


From the TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N61W
TO 10N64W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE ERN EDGE OF
AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE
ERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 59W-67W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN
62W-65W. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING S TOWARDS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE CONVECTION.


im living that rite now
2862. beell
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Good morning
I'm watching the flood in North Dakota and wondering if anyone here has seen any recent satellite image of the Minot area showing the extent of the flooding?


Found these, CRS. Not quite as dramatic looking as the Mississippi River and its vast flood plain in flood.

Large Hi-Res available from links:

Souris River - MODIS/TERRA, June 23, 2011
Missouri River - MODIS/TERRA, June 25, 2011
earthobservatory.nasa.gov
Levi, over the past day or so some of the models were on and off hinting at the possibility of a trough split in the GOMEX, do you think this is possible? The NOGAPS 18z last night was very strong with it, it has since backed off on it.
Hi,

we had some beautiful supercells in southern austria, Europe on 23rd of June.
THIS kind of "US-like" supercells are not common in our country.

Sorry for the delayed report, but registrating here in this blog needs time ;)

I hope you can enjoy my video, fotos and time lapse of SIX supercells on one day!

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Levi, over the past day or so some of the models were on and off hinting at the possibility of a trough split in the GOMEX, do you think this is possible? The NOGAPS 18z last night was very strong with it, it has since backed off on it.


Matter of fact, the CMC is showing it off the East coast moving towards the East coast by Saturday.
Quoting beell:


Found these, CRS. Not quite as dramatic looking as the Mississippi River and its vast flood plain in flood.

Large Hi-Res available from links:

Souris River - MODIS/TERRA, June 23, 2011
Missouri River - MODIS/TERRA, June 25, 2011
earthobservatory.nasa.gov


Thanks for the image.
CRS
2867. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Levi, over the past day or so some of the models were on and off hinting at the possibility of a trough split in the GOMEX, do you think this is possible? The NOGAPS 18z last night was very strong with it, it has since backed off on it.


What time-frame?
Quoting Levi32:


Unfortunately probably not. That ridge over Texas won't be going anywhere soon, and by the time it does move, the moisture from our little system will probably be all gone.
hoping levi it gets pulled towards arizona and n mex its that time of the yr?
What the models are showing as of late:
Canadian: Minimal TS going into Mexico in about 48 to 96 Hours, And a Trough split off the Carolina coast as a Tropical depression or Minimal TS and makes landfall in North Caronlina.

European: Minimal TS going into Mexico, And some lingering low pressure in the extreme south BOC, at the end for some possible mishief?(remember the MJO is in the area for another week and a half)

GFS: A broad, elongated low pressure system forms in the BOC and head into mexico, this run also agrees toward what the canadian shows of a trough split just weaker than the canadian, and during the end in the long range theres low pressure from the monsoonal low, in the SW caribbean.

NOGAPS: A weak low moves into mexico, then afterward the Nogaps agrees to a monsoonal low in the SW Caribbean.
Quoting Levi32:


What time-frame?


Friday - Saturday of this week. CMC has it, GFS 'hinted' at it on the 6z. We're now talking about off the East Coast. NOGAPS had it this week to, but in the GOMEX and had it as a fairly potent TS. It has since backed off. So 114 hours or so.
2872. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Matter of fact, the CMC is showing it off the East coast moving towards the East coast by Saturday.


I don't know about the surface low, but the upper trough-split is certainly possible, if not probable, as the next long-wave trough comes across the eastern seaboard. The tail-end will likely be forced around the Texas ridge, and an upper low following behind the 200mb ridge moving into Mexico associated with our BOC disturbance would make sense.
2873. Levi32
Quoting islander101010:
hoping levi it gets pulled towards arizona and n mex its that time of the yr?


I wouldn't count on it.
The DGEX has some kind of weird "ball like" system moving towards LA on Saturday. I don't really know much about the DGEX but it seems odd to me.



Link
Quoting MrstormX:
The DGEX has some kind of weird "ball like" system moving towards LA on Saturday. I don't really know much about the DGEX but it seems odd to me.



Link


This is exactly what the NOGAPS was showing last night Levi btw, if you were wondering.
2876. Levi32
Quoting MrstormX:
The DGEX has some kind of weird "ball like" system moving towards LA on Saturday. I don't really know much about the DGEX but it seems odd to me.



Link


Yeah it pulls a nice trough-split look:

Levi or somebody, is the DGEX even a tropical model... I'm unfamiliar with it?
Quoting IceCoast:
Haven't heard anything about this fire until this morning. Hard to get a good grasp on how serious it is.
Link

"SANTA FE, New Mexico (Reuters) - Voluntary evacuations have been issued for Los Alamos, including the Los Alamos National Laboratory, which is threatened by a fast-moving wildfire that broke out in northern New Mexico on Sunday, authorities said.
The Las Conchas Fire flared early Sunday afternoon around 12 miles southwest of Los Alamos, charring about 3,500 acres and endangering the nation's nuclear weapons laboratory and its surrounding communities, said Lawrence Lujan, a spokesman for the Santa Fe National Forest.
"We have homes and we have the labs, so it's a very, very big concern, not only locally but nationally and globally," Lujan said."

It is one more fire we didn't need. Started yesterday from small grass fire on private property and is now over 3000 acres. Whole Northwest sky from Santa Fe was black then orange. Friends around me in Santa Fe all work at Los Alamos and are staying home today as the lab is closed. Everyone remembers the 2000 fire and are worried.
east coast storm lets hope not!!
2880. Levi32
Quoting MrstormX:
Levi or somebody, is the DGEX even a tropical model... I'm unfamiliar with it?


It's basically the NAM/WRF extended from the usual 84 hours out to 192 hours, using GFS input.
2881. Matt74
What exactly is a trough split? Just trying to learn a little bit. Thanks to anyone who wants to answer.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Here is a flood zone map. Except where dikes have held, the whole area inside the red line is under water.

pdf of evacuation zones

better visual
nevermind
Quoting VAstorms:

It is one more fire we didn't need. Started yesterday from small grass fire on private property and is now over 3000 acres. Whole Northwest sky from Santa Fe was black then orange. Friends around me in Santa Fe all work at Los Alamos and are staying home today as the lab is closed. Everyone remembers the 2000 fire and are worried.


And it also means we have a fire across a main highway from another fire. There is about a 40 mile gap between the Las Conchas fire and the Pacheco canyon fire near the Santa Fe ski area. And the pueblo Indians are all selling fireworks.
2885. Levi32
Quoting Matt74:
What exactly is a trough split? Just trying to learn a little bit. Thanks to anyone who wants to answer.


It's basically where a longwave trough gets pinched off near its base, causing the tail-end to split off and become a cut-off upper low. The pinching off is usually caused by a ridge building in quickly behind a positively-tilted upper trough.
2886. Matt74
Thanks for taking the time to answer my question Levi.
Pretty slow today so far.

Also, if the BOC system doesn't develop that trough split the models are showing would be my best bet on when we could see a system. The last time we had a trough split was August 2010 that formed a cyclone, TD5. Before that, Edouard originated from a trough split too in the GOMEX. They seem to become less frequent over the last few years.
Question. What is that rotation just N of the DR? Is that just an ULL? It looks to have some thunder heads flaring off of it.

Thanks
2889. 7544
Quoting myway:
Geoffery......is there a small spin @ 20/70?


was just about to ask that lol looks like its trying to form one but is that a ull in front of it to the west ?
Ridge is breaking down out west of TX
2888 & 2889.

Its just a ULL.
Convection and clouds north of Yucatan are much farther north than what was to be expected, this will have impacts down the road I believe
Umm, anyone notice this?!

Check out 67W 20N (just north of Hispañola) on water vapor.
There is a large fire burning near Los Alamos, NM. Cyclone Oz lives there. He posted on Facebook that he is broadcasting live and indeed he is.

http://ustre.am/i2Ur

He mentioned a local news site that is covering the fire. http://www.kobtv.com

I watched the report from this site. It is a bad fire.
2895. 7544
Quoting Waltanater:
Umm, anyone notice this?!

Check out 67W 20N (just north of Hispaola) on water vapor.


thats a ull as the blog says but it the little wave just over pr now . thats looks like it might have a small spin to it ? around 18n 67 w
2896. aquak9
is anyone having issues with post 2883? It's thrown my blog view into a tizzy.
2897. Walshy
Quoting VAstorms:

It is one more fire we didn't need. Started yesterday from small grass fire on private property and is now over 3000 acres. Whole Northwest sky from Santa Fe was black then orange. Friends around me in Santa Fe all work at Los Alamos and are staying home today as the lab is closed. Everyone remembers the 2000 fire and are worried.


Same lab the first atomic bomb was built in?...
Quoting Waltanater:
Umm, anyone notice this?!

Check out 67W 20N (just north of Hispañola) on water vapor.


I thought that was a TUTT.....
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I thought that was a TUTT.....

i believe TUTT can transform lol jkin ask levi but i notcied it is trying to take on a more circular presentation and offcourse remember this is not a monsoonal type system so it cud develop much faster
2900. 7544
Quoting caribbeantracker01:

i believe TUTT can transform lol jkin ask levi but i notcied it is trying to take on a more circular presentation


so can a ull it could work its way down to the surface i believe its been done before if it hangs out long enough
Thanks for the update Levi!! My favorite tidbit for the day, and I realize that my reasons are selfish, is the now official correct pronunciation of the Bay of Campeche. I will keep that in mind, for poetic puposes, of course, as I write my next Wunderblog Tropical Poem of the Day :-)
Lil Miss Amy returns
Aqua - the blog was not very useable now for me. Too much stuff screwed up. Was it that post???
Quoting 7544:


so can a ull it could work its way down to the surface i believe its been done before if it hangs out long enough



yes ! and if i was everyone i would say that system has a better chance but the atmosphere is very difficult to predict this yr it is the worst so far in terms of models just like every el nino and la nina yr is not the same so too every neutral yr is not the same! models do have errors but ever since the first disturbance in may the models seem to be blowing them out and into big systems which really never materialized
I have been watching the local forecasts and reading what the more knowledgeable have been posting in here. While I am grateful for the recent rains we have received, it appears that a new ridge will return us to another extended period of hot and dry weather here in the Houston area. My lizard is NOT going to be happy to know this. I am afraid that before this drought is over he will have staked his claim on my water hose. I cannot say that I would blame him.
AL GORE IS WRONG AGAIN

Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update


New Paper: Maue (2011) Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity:

During the past 6-years since Hurricane Katrina, global tropical cyclone frequency and energy have decreased dramatically, and are currently at near-historical record lows. According to a new peer-reviewed research paper accepted to be published, only 69 tropical storms were observed globally during 2010, the fewest in almost 40-years of reliable records.
Furthermore, when each storm's intensity and duration were taken into account, the total global tropical cyclone accumulated energy (ACE) was found to have fallen by half to the lowest level since 1977.

In his new paper, "Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity", Dr. Ryan Maue, a meteorologist from Florida State University, examined the last 40-years of global hurricane records and found strikingly large variability in both tropical cyclone frequency and energy from year-to-year. Since 2007, global tropical cyclone activity has decreased dramatically and has continued at near-historical low levels. Indeed, only 64 tropical cyclones were observed globally in the 12-months from June 2010 - May 2011, nearly 23-storms below average obliterating the previous record low set in 1977.

On average, the North Atlantic including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea accounts for about 1/8 of total global tropical cyclone energy and frequency. However in 2010, the Atlantic saw 19 tropical storms, of which 12 became hurricanes as expected (and forecasted) due to the intense La Nina event and continued positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The Atlantic Ocean's accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) corresponded to about 1/3 of the global calendar year output while the Western North Pacific typhoon season experienced a record few number. Seasonal forecasters of Atlantic hurricanes expect a similar but somewhat tempered outcome for the 2011 season, which has yet to get underway.

While the North Atlantic continued a 16-year period of above-normal activity in 2010, the North Pacific including the warm tropical waters from China to Mexico experienced the quietest tropical cyclone season in at least 40-years of historical records. Similarly, the most recent Southern Hemisphere cyclone season, except for the disastrous impacts of Yasi, was also notably below average. All told through June 27, 2011, overall global accumulated cyclone energy and frequency has settled into a period of record inactivity.




http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
look like tropical storm off the east coast!!
If it is an ULL it could translate down to the surface. Also, a low level circulation could form in association to the SE of that. Have to see if it develops further.
2913. aquak9
I can barely scroll past post 2883. Wrote to Barefoot, but got only got an auto-reply.


notice a small spin
tropical storm on the east coast here to!!
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


notice a small spin
i do see a spin wow!!
2918. aquak9
Sure enough, something's wrong with the blog. Folks can't post.
2920. Patrap
Cyclone Oz posted a pic on Facebook of that fire he is near. Those buildings are at Los Alamos National Laboratory.



Here is the link to his broadcast. http://ustre.am/i2Ur
2923. Patrap
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I thought that was a TUTT.....


It is.
2927. Patrap
2928. Patrap
Good afternoon all.

Our area of disturbed weather along the western coast of the Yucatan is producing widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity at the moment. Wind shear of 20-40 knots is prohibiting any development at this time. However, as a ridge builds over the Bay of Campeche in 48 hours or so, wind shear should drop and become conducive for development. It only makes sense that this will make a good run at tropical depression/tropical storm status with all other components favorable for development. This disturbance is moving very slowly WNW/NW, which should give it almost/a little over 3 days in the BOC. I'd give it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression, and a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm. The CMC predicts that a tropical storm will be making landfall near Tampico, MX and so does the ECMWF in about 72-78 hours from now, so we could indeed be dealing with Arlene by Thursday or so.

Insurance industry facing a climate of fear.

Floods, hurricanes, droughts - will climate change mean more wild
weather ahead? That's a risk the insurance industry is taking very
seriously, reports Peter Huck.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/science/news/article.cf m?c_id=82&objectid=10734026
Looks like he's getting ready to get out of Dodge. I do not blame him.

From Facebook:

"Shutting down main computer now and loading it up for evacuation preparation. I'll be in the truck soon, with live updates. This will be my last Facebook post until this event is over and I am able to put my computer back together again."
Quoting aquak9:
is anyone having issues with post 2883? It's thrown my blog view into a tizzy.


Poor thing.
I removed the quote. Perhaps the flashplayer in the vid (add: quote of 2864.) was a problem.

Quoting aquak9:
Sure enough, something's wrong with the blog. Folks can't post.


??? Plenty posts here.
I'll go back and remove the whole comment, even though there's nothing in the code that should cause a problem.
Finally it looks that somthing might devolop soon!
Also is anybody having probs with the floaters? Atlantic 1 is showing that Pacific storm that formed last week.
Quoting NRAamy:
Cyclone Oz posted a pic on Facebook of that fire he is near. Those buildings are at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

That boy is craaaaaaaazeeeeeeee.....

:)





CANES!!!!

:)


We finally got a decent amount of rain this weekend.

Too bad Grothar, once again, didn't get any ;)
Lubbock, Texas-The mercury hit 112 degrees Sunday at
4:25 p.m. to set a record high, one degree higher than the previous
record of 111 degrees set June 26, 2004.

--------------

Amarillo reached an all-time-high temperature of 111 on Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.

The old record of 109 stood for only two days, having been set Friday.

Borger set an all-time high of 113, smashing the old record of 108, set on Friday as well.

Dalhart also set an all-time-high temperature Sunday, reaching 110. The old record was 108, set Friday.

http://amarillo.com/news/local-news/2011-06-27/ci ties-top-all-time-highs
2939. msphar
Interesting, worldwide hurricane ACE down due to CAGW undoubtedly. I wonder why Dr. Masters didn't cite this study or something similar.
2940. aquak9
barefoot- the quote had encapsulated nearly 400 posts.

thank you for removing it.
2941. Patrap
Firefox had no issue with the post.
2942. Patrap
Quoting msphar:
Interesting, worldwide hurricane ACE down due to CAGW undoubtedly. I wonder why the Dr. Masters didn't cite this study or something similar.


Maybe read the Dr's. entry a tad more carefully,I suggest.

Global tropical cyclone activity lowest on record
The year 2010 was one of the strangest on record for tropical cyclones. Each year, the globe has about 92 tropical cyclones--called hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, typhoons in the Western Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. But in 2010, we had just 68 of these storms--the fewest since the dawn of the satellite era in 1970. The previous record slowest year was 1977, when 69 tropical cyclones occurred world-wide. Both the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific had their quietest seasons on record in 2010, but the Atlantic was hyperactive, recording its 3rd busiest season since record keeping began in 1851. The Southern Hemisphere had a slightly below average season. The Atlantic ordinarily accounts for just 13% of global cyclone activity, but accounted for 28% in 2010--the greatest proportion since accurate tropical cyclone records began in the 1970s.

A common theme of many recent publications on the future of tropical cyclones globally in a warming climate is that the total number of these storms will decrease, but the strongest storms will get stronger. For example, a 2010 review paper published in Nature Geosciences concluded that the strongest storms would increase in intensity by 2 - 11% by 2100, but the total number of storms would fall by 6 - 34%. It is interesting that 2010 saw the lowest number of global tropical cyclones on record, but an average number of very strong Category 4 and 5 storms (the 25-year average is 13 Category 4 and 5 storms, and 2010 had 14.) Fully 21% of 2010's tropical cyclones reached Category 4 or 5 strength, versus just 14% during the period 1983 - 2007. Most notably, in 2010 we had Super Typhoon Megi. Megi's sustained winds cranked up to a ferocious 190 mph and its central pressure bottomed out at 885 mb on October 16, making it the 8th most intense tropical cyclone in world history. Other notable storms in 2010 included the second strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea (Category 4 Cyclone Phet in June), and the strongest tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar/Burma (October's Tropical Cyclone Giri, an upper end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds.)
2943. NRAamy
Too bad Grothar, once again, didn't get any ;)

story of his life....

;)

his OLD life....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

Our area of disturbed weather along the western coast of the Yucatan is producing widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity at the moment. Wind shear of 20-40 knots is prohibiting any development at this time. However, as a ridge builds over the Bay of Campeche in 48 hours or so, wind shear should drop and become conducive for development. It only makes sense that this will make a good run at tropical depression/tropical storm status with all other components favorable for development. This disturbance is moving very slowly WNW/NW, which should give it almost/a little over 3 days in the BOC. I'd give it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression, and a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm. The CMC predicts that a tropical storm will be making landfall near Tampico, MX and so does the ECMWF in about 72-78 hours from now, so we could indeed be dealing with Arlene by Thursday or so.



Remember that poll you had the other day??? I said 70% Eventually :) We'll see if it plays out.
2945. Patrap
Right on top the Warm Pool Eddy of the Loop current the convective Bow-up is,,and seems to be taking full advantage of it as well.

2946. JRRP
Quoting NRAamy:
Too bad Grothar, once again, didn't get any ;)

story of his life....

;)

his OLD life....


Haha.

So, when is this trough split supposed to occur? I looked it up last night but can't remember it.
2949. Patrap
GOMEX Sea Surface Anomalies



2950. cg2916
2950 comments, that's more like it!

I was getting bored without an AOI.
floooding rain
2952. srada
From Allan Huffman:

Day 11-15 Discussion:

However, I am seeing signs in the 11-15 day period that the Bering Sea positive height anomaly may retrogress towards eastern Asia which would send a trough into the Aleutians and perhaps ridging into the western US, and more troughiness in the eastern US. This would fit my summer forecast well. However, the evidence is not solid yet, so I am not ready to pull the trigger quite yet.

More troughs could mean more low pressures? Wouldnt that make a higher setup of these exiting into the Atlantic ocean and home grown storms for the South east coasts?
2953. NRAamy
LOS ALAMOS, N.M. (KABC) -- A fast-moving wildfire that broke out in New Mexico forced officials at the Los Alamos National Laboratory to close the site on Monday.

The fire has grown to 3,500 acres since it started on Sunday. Authorities issued voluntary evacuation orders.

The Los Alamos National Laboratory is a government site that was founded during World War II to develop the world's first nuclear weapons.

Officials say all radioactive and hazardous material is being protected.

2954. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:
Whenever a post gives the thread a problem,,just use the "Hide" feature and it disappears from the view as does the problem.

Or one could call Michelle Bachman in to see if it was a Pro or Anti-American post.

: )



I tried that but it didn't hide. Dunno what was going on.
2956. Patrap
Quoting CanesfanatUT:


I tried that but it didn't hide. Dunno what was going on.


Sometime a Flash Player will have one bad icon or letter and that can skew the page.

It never showed in FireFox though.I've been a lurking since 9am CDT and never had a issue here.
2957. Patrap
.."Like I've Never Been Gone"..

Across the sea, I see bluebirds on high
In the wildest places too
Above the ground the wind is calling out to me
Oh, lead me back to you
I caught a taste of springtime on your lips
I can still see the sunlight in your eyes, in your eyes


Quoting Patrap:


Sometime a Flash Player will have one bad icon or letter and that can skew the page.

It never showed in FireFox though.I've been a lurking since 9am CDt and never had a issue here.


I'm at work and we can't install Firefox. I has that at home though. GRRR!!!

Oh the wonders of big oil and our IT folks....
2959. 7544
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
floooding rain


todays aoi in my opinion looks like its trying to organize ? moving wnw ?
2960. Patrap
2961. alfabob

Gulf of Guinea continues to cool. Not really anything special about Atlantic anomalies. The MDR is basically running 0.5-1.0C above average.

Edit: The one thing about the Atlantic is that it has the largest area of positive anomalies, while surrounded by a large area of negative anomalies. While our anomalies aren't as high as last season, we are still the focused area of upward motion.

June 27:

2963. alfabob
EPAC may just form it's own monsoonal system.
2964. Patrap
,,I can feel a new entry a-coming as their is a disturbance in the wu-force all of a sudden
We have just started getting major ash fall from the Las Conchas fire here in Santa Fe. This fire went from 6000-45000 acres in one day and is one mile outside of the gate of Los Alamos National Laboratory.
2966. Patrap
Quoting VAstorms:
We have just started getting major ash fall from the Las Conchas fire here in Santa Fe. This fire went from 6000-45000 acres in one day and is one mile outside of the gate of Los Alamos National Laboratory.


Where are your in ref to da fire VA?
The circulation isn't very impressive with the AOI near PR. I like the GOMs chances better in the short term.
Sometime a Flash Player will have one bad icon or letter and that can skew the page.
Apparently the problem did not happen until I quoted the original comment with the youtube.

Perhaps a code issue for admin to address.

(Add: so much for trying to thank a European blogger for his vid of unusual supercells in Austria...)
I have never seen an MJO signal this strong on the UKMET. If this were to pan out, we could get several named storms in the early/mid part of July before the MJO moves to another basin. I'm still sticking with 2-3 named storms for July.

UKMET:

2971. Patrap
2972. 7544
Quoting MrstormX:
The circulation isn't very impressive with the AOI near PR. I like the GOMs chances better in the short term.


its trying tho it could surpise us
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have never seen an MJO signal this strong on the UKMET. If this were to pan out, we could get several named storms in the early/mid part of July before the MJO moves to another basin. I'm still sticking with 2-3 named storms for July.

UKMET:



Has a lot to do with my post above about SST anomalies.
Quoting MrstormX:
The circulation isn't very impressive with the AOI near PR. I like the GOMs chances better in the short term.


The area close to PR is associated with an upper level low.
2975. JRRP


Mexico radar:

2977. alfabob
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have never seen an MJO signal this strong on the UKMET. If this were to pan out, we could get several named storms in the early/mid part of July before the MJO moves to another basin. I'm still sticking with 2-3 named storms for July.

UKMET:


It is crazy that models are predicting a continuous month worth of up-trending in octants 1 and 8, although it does still appear to be strengthening.
Quoting MississippiWx:


The area close to PR is associated with an upper level low.


Convection is highly displaced, if it track due west it could turn out to be a Claudette situation like in '09 once it reaches the GOM.
Quoting alfabob:

It is crazy that models are predicting a continuous month worth of up-trending in octants 1 and 8, although it does still appear to be strengthening.


Should stay with us for the majority of the season.
Quoting alfabob:

It is crazy that models are predicting a continuous month worth of up-trending in octants 1 and 8, although it does still appear to be strengthening.


Yeah, that would be unlikely, but not impossible. If that were to occur, and all other components for development were favorable in the Atlantic, we would possibly see a July like 2005 (5 named storms).

I do not think we will see that much activity though, and I do not think the MJO will be focused in octants 1 and 8 for a month..Maybe until mid-July sounds right.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Has a lot to do with my post above about SST anomalies.


Yeah, just like last year, since the majority of the heat is in the Atlantic basin, that is where the MJO will be focused for most of the season.
2984. alfabob
30kt trade-winds moving into that monsoon flow, should help it organize. Also #2981 the velocity anomalies associated with MJO have been in this area since June 15th, only need two more weeks for it to make a month.

Check out the predicted wave height in the GOM:

Quoting CanesfanatUT:


I tried that but it didn't hide. Dunno what was going on.
There should be a button called "Hide problem" LOL
2988. NRAamy
WASHINGTON (KABC) -- NASA says a newly discovered asteroid will have a close encounter with Earth on Monday, but there's no need to worry.

The small space rock will pass 7,500 miles above the Earth's surface over the southern Atlantic Ocean at about 10 a.m. PST. Astronomers first thought it would hit at about 6:30 a.m.


The asteroid is about 33-feet long and was discovered last week by astronomers in New Mexico. It will be bright enough that a medium-sized telescope might be able to see it.

Scientists say asteroids this size sail past Earth every six years. Earlier this year an even smaller space rock came within 3,400 miles of Earth.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

2989. alfabob
FZNT24 KNHC 271440
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ089-272130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE LOW PRES AREA IS FORMING IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL TRACK NW TOWARD TAMPICO THROUGH EARLY
THU...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO THE S CENTRAL AND SW
GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF GULF THROUGH FRI.
2929. DARPAsockpuppet Coming soon, the test-tube burger: Lab-grown meat 'needed to feed the world'
"The scientists are currently developing a burger which will be grown from 10,000 stem cells extracted from cattle, which are then left in the lab to multiply more than a billion times to produce muscle tissue similar to beef.
The product is called 'in vitro' meat."

Odd, I thought they called such proliferative cells, cancer. Could market the product as crab cakes I suppose.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Should stay with us for the majority of the season.


NEW BLOG!!!
I would like to see a scientific computation of the percentage of climate change caused by human activity. I have researched this and find a lot of conflicting esimates.

So much information, so little time. I suppose someone will know a little more in about 500 years. It amazes me how the more we find out the more we realize how much we don't know, or the more we should realize how much we don't know.