WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

2008 hurricane season outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:56 PM GMT on April 13, 2008

It's too soon to find many clues about what the upcoming hurricane season might be like, since we are facing the famed "April Predictability Barrier". The atmosphere is not predictable enough to make a skillful forecast of seasonal hurricane activity in April (this changes by late May, when skillful predictions of the upcoming hurricane season CAN be made). Thus, we should put little faith in the predictions by Dr. Bill Gray's Colorado State University group and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Inc., made in April, calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. These numbers are exactly what the climatology has been in the 13 years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, and are pretty unremarkable forecasts.



Figure 1. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) comparison between April 11, 2008 (top) and April 11, 2005 (bottom). SSTs were at record high levels in 2005, and are much cooler in 2008 over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes. The red wiggly line is the 26°C isotherm, which is the coolest temperature that hurricanes typically form at. Note that it stays warm enough to support hurricanes year-round in the Caribbean. High levels of wind shear prevent development in the winter and spring. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Outlook
Sea Surface temperatures are at the heart of any attempt to analyze seasonal hurricane activity, since SSTs change slowly and have a major impact on both the number of storms that form and their intensity. For example, the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005 had the warmest SSTs ever observed in the tropical Atlantic. Comparing the SSTs in April of 2008 with April of 2005 (Figure 1), we see that SSTs are more than 1 degree C cooler this year over a large portion of the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes. The MDR is where 85% of all major hurricane form. Overall, SSTs this April are near average compared to climatology when averaged over the Main Development Region. There is still time for a significant warming of SSTs to occur if we get a large decrease in the speed of the trade winds over the next few months. This would occur if the Bermuda High weakened to much below-average levels, driving slower clockwise winds around its center. TSR is forecasting only a modestly weaker Bermuda High than average, with trade wind speeds about 1 mph below average between now and hurricane season. This would allow SSTs in the MDR to warm to slightly above-average levels. Both Columbia University's IRI and NOAA's CFS model (Figure 2) are predicting average to slightly below average SSTs over the Caribbean and Main Development region during the peak hurricane season months of August, September, and October. The accuracy of these sort of long-range forecasts is a little better than chance, but not a lot. The bottom line is that SSTs should be near average this hurricane season, and should neither enhance nor inhibit hurricane formation. Note, though, that some of the regions outside the MDR, where the other 15% of major hurricanes form, have SSTs as warm or slightly warmer than 2005. For example, Katrina and Rita formed outside the MDR over the Bahamas, and SSTs there this year are comparable to 2005 levels. SSTs are also quite warm in the Gulf of Mexico this spring. Thus, we can expect plenty of fuel for any hurricane that might get loose in the Gulf of Mexico this hurricane season.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average (left) and wind shear departure from average (right) from the April 12, 2008 run of NOAA's CFS model. The forecasts are for the 3-month period August-October spanning the most active part of hurricane season. The model predicts near average SSTs over the tropical Atlantic, and below average wind shear. Image credit:NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

El Niño/La Niña Outlook
Obviously, SSTs don't tell the whole story, since the second highest SSTs in the tropical Atlantic since the 1870s occurred in 2006. That was a very normal year with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, because an El Niño event occurred. El Niño events usually suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, by bringing increased wind shear and dryer, sinking air over the Atlantic. This is not always the case--recall 2004? El Niño conditions were even stronger that year (as measured by SST departures from average in the Equatorial Pacific), yet that year saw 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes in the Atlantic. Florida got walloped with four hurricanes.

Presence of La Niña conditions usually causes reduced levels of wind shear over the Atlantic, enhancing hurricane activity. The current strong La Niña event has begun weakening noticeably in the past few weeks, giving some hope that La Niña will be gone by hurricane season. However, there is probably not time for a full-fledged El Niño event to replace it by hurricane season, and it is expected that we will have weak La Niña or neutral conditions this hurricane season. Since the active period of hurricane activity that we are in began in 1995, both La Niña and neutral years have seen very high levels of hurricane activity (Figure 3). In fact, neutral years have had even higher hurricane activity than La Niña years (thanks in great measure to the Hurricane Season of 2005).

The NOAA CFS model (Figure 2) is predicting La Niña conditions and lower than average wind shear for the coming hurricane season. None of the computer models are forecasting a switch over to El Niño conditions this year. Keep in mind, though, that the accuracy of these long range models is poor, particularly for forecasts made in March and April. Still, La Niña is well enough established now that it would be a major surprise to see an El Niño arrive by hurricane season.


Figure 3. Observed numbers of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes (Category 3 and higher) for the 13-year period beginning in 1995. Background image is of Australia's Tropical Cyclone Monica, the most intense storm of 2006.

African dust outlook
African dust is thought to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, although its role is not well understood. As I explained in a 2006 blog entry, research shows that the presence of drought conditions in the Sahel region of Africa the previous year will increase the amount of dust wafting over the Atlantic during hurricane season. This occurs because drought-damaged soil takes about a year to dry up and turn to dust that can blow away. Last year saw above-average rains during the rainy season (June-September) over the Sahel (Figure 4). This was also the case in 2005 and 2006, so in theory, three straight years of good rains in the Sahel should act to keep African dust levels over the Atlantic below average this hurricane season. The last significant drought years in the Sahel were 2001 and 2002. I made the same forecast last year, but we saw unexpectedly high levels of dust over the eastern Atlantic in July and August, which substantially cooled the ocean waters by blocking sunlight. Dust levels returned to near average levels in September.


Figure 4. Departure of precipitation from average in Africa for August 2007. The region in the red box is the Sahel region of Africa that accounts for most of the year-to-year variability in dust transport over the Atlantic Ocean. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The outlook for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season
If the forecasts of near normal sea surface temperatures, below average wind shear, no El Niño, and below average African dust come true, the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season should be well above average in activity. We are also in the midst of an active hurricane period that began in 1995. Since 1995, we've averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes, and this is a reasonable forecast for 2008 (the 100-year climatology is 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes). By May, the atmosphere and ocean begin to give us significant clues about the upcoming hurricane season. Tune into the early June seasonal forecasts issued by NOAA, the Colorado State group, and TSR!

This will be my last blog until Monday April 21, as I'll be on vacation in Arizona.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

26-28C southwest of Hawaii..
Bureau of Meteorology - Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE #1
0700 UTC April 20 2008

Related to the Tropical Depression referred by TCWC Jakarta

At 2:00 pm WST a Tropical Low (1002 hPa) was estimated to be 415 kilometres north of Cocos Is and 960 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Is has 10 minutes sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The tropical low is reported moving southeast at 19 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a cyclone late Monday or early Tuesday but is not expected to cause gales at Christmas Island within the next 24 hours. However gales may develop on Tuesday if the low develops and moves towards the southeast.

Cyclone Alerts
==================
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR CHRISTMAS ISLAND.
Morning everyone!

Does anybody have a link to a good (printable) hurricane tracking map? I've been using this one for the past few years and I've been pretty happy with it. I'm asking just in case there's a better one out there that the google search missed. Thanks to anybody that can answer.

PS: I know about the full atlantic map with africa on the NHC site; but I don't like it b/c it will not fit on my cork board, and it doesn't display cities.
I think that may be your best tracking page
1505. Spetrm
If you want to spend money Terra check out this link. Outside of that the NHC I think is one of the better ones. Just resize it with power point or something.
EL NINO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lets not get too far ahead of ourselves here. lol
Morning all

There are three other models now picking up on some type of low off the SE US in addition to the CMC. The GFS hints at it then loses it but the Nogaps holds on to the low and develops it much like CMC. Even the UK Met model has a hint of something.

When several models come on board like this it bears watching although whatever develops is forecasted to move out into the Atl.

BBL
I predict a strong El Nio. 3 TS, zero hurricanes this season.

Nothing will develop now. It's April.
Thank you Altestic nobody should be freaking out about a blob that won't form please no more excessive blogs on blobs
Altestic...I hope your being sarcastic, because its unlikely we will see a strong El Nino, probably even unlikely to see a moderate El Nino.
But I agree its April...no need to watch every blob.
1512. vortfix
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

SW ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW WATERS TODAY AND STALL JUST E OF THE N FL COAST. A FRONTAL
TROUGH FROM 27N55W TO 22N65W ATTM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MEANDER
IN THE SAME AREA THROUGH MON...THEN LIFT N IN RESPONSE TO A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW WATERS AND
MERGE WITH THE QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY. A LOW PRES WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 30N77W TUE NIGHT THEN MOVE SE TO NEAR 26N72W THU
TRAILING A WEAK COLD FRONT S TO HISPANIOLA. GRADIENT NW QUADRANT
OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT NE 15-20 KT.

48 Hour Surface Forecast:

Photobucket
Morning everyone.

I've been reading the last 150 or so posts, and especially the ones on possible el nino, with interest. I haven't gone any further than the posted imagery, but I don't see the shift to el nino happening early enough to impact the season significantly. I'd be surprised if we are even in a weak El Nino by November, but even if this does eventuate, I don't see the impact as much greater than potentially cutting down the forecast numbers by maybe 2 or at the most 3 late season storms.

That warming, however, does make me agree that by this time next year we are likely to be in an ENSO+ stage.

Either way, I'll be interested to see the next analysis and forecast information when it comes out. Didn't somebody say that's due sometime this week?
But blob-watching is such fun!!
I highly dought anything above a Slight El-Nino.
2009, might be a ENSO Season judging on about how fast El-Nino/ La-Nina's seems to be disspating.
Remember though, 2004 looked to be a El Nino and in the end if was a very weak one if not a neutral with a warm bias and we still had a very active season. So lets not get too caught up in every piece of evidence suggesting El Nino.
Bureau of Meteorology - Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 2
12:00 UTC April 20, 2008

At 8:00 pm WST a Tropical Low [1002 hPa] was estimated to be 390 kilometres north northeast of Cocos Is and 860 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Is had 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The tropical low was reported moving east southeast at 16 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a cyclone late Monday or early Tuesday but is not expected to cause gales at Christmas Island within the next 24 hours. However gales may develop on Tuesday if the low develops and moves towards the
southeast.

Tropical Cyclone Alert
---------------------
A CYCLONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHRISTMAS ISLAND

----
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Center seems to stop issuing advisories on 95S.INVEST and BOM took over..
1517.HGW

I think the low "crossed the line" . . .
Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day
Av.SOI Av.SOI
----------------------------------------------------------------
22-Mar-2008 1012.85 1007.00 8.30 15.12 16.56
23-Mar-2008 1012.89 1007.50 6.10 14.67 16.36
24-Mar-2008 1011.48 1008.60 -5.80 14.00 16.09
25-Mar-2008 1010.80 1008.70 -9.60 13.00 15.85
26-Mar-2008 1012.84 1007.50 5.80 12.20 15.73
27-Mar-2008 1014.65 1007.40 15.00 11.71 15.65
28-Mar-2008 1015.28 1009.00 10.30 11.49 15.40
29-Mar-2008 1013.91 1009.50 1.40 10.97 14.99
30-Mar-2008 1012.65 1009.20 -3.10 10.40 14.61
31-Mar-2008 1014.12 1009.10 4.30 10.21 14.40
1-Apr-2008 1013.94 1009.45 15.10 10.55 14.22
2-Apr-2008 1013.99 1010.00 11.50 10.44 13.92
3-Apr-2008 1014.54 1009.80 16.90 10.49 13.65
4-Apr-2008 1014.78 1009.50 20.80 10.78 13.42
5-Apr-2008 1015.89 1010.45 21.90 11.23 13.38
6-Apr-2008 1013.90 1011.85 -2.40 10.81 13.27
7-Apr-2008 1011.31 1010.80 -13.50 9.87 13.02
8-Apr-2008 1010.89 1010.25 -12.60 8.79 12.73
9-Apr-2008 1011.60 1009.80 -4.20 8.12 12.53
10-Apr-2008 1012.98 1009.25 9.60 7.88 12.41
11-Apr-2008 1013.72 1009.55 12.80 7.77 12.39
12-Apr-2008 1013.73 1009.15 15.70 7.84 12.41
13-Apr-2008 1012.30 1008.85 7.60 7.72 12.37
14-Apr-2008 1011.71 1008.65 4.80 7.67 12.38
15-Apr-2008 1011.05 1009.25 -4.20 7.14 12.43
16-Apr-2008 1011.05 1009.20 -3.90 6.52 12.48
17-Apr-2008 1010.04 1008.95 -9.30 5.68 12.32
18-Apr-2008 1010.80 1008.70 -2.00 5.01 12.23
19-Apr-2008 1012.44 1008.80 9.00 4.69 12.28
20-Apr-2008 1012.69 1008.60 12.20 4.63 12.41
Hmmm . .. just went to overcast skies and light rain here; it was clear out less than an hour ago . . .
that charts not too organized so basically the daily number is +12.20 while the 30-day average is +4.63
236, something I thought about as I looked at the shifts in SPac temps is that the S hemisphere SSTs are just coming down from summer highs i. e. the temps there now are like SSTs here in October. It took about 8 months for those warm anomalies to start building in the S Pac. I'm thinking it may take until October to get the equatorial waters to begin to display similar anomalies.
I think i saw at 384hrs north carolina was being by a 200mph winds.

Folks please when looking at any model that far in time the chances at it being correct are very small as the skill level of any model that far out in time is very poor.
What's THIS?



Seems to be sitting at the end of a trough. It seems unrelated to the current conditions at Nassau.
Hey 23. Are u guys getting any rain with that frontal passage?
1525. BahaHurican 10:51 AM EDT on April 20, 2008
Hey 23. Are u guys getting any rain with that frontal passage?

Nope...Things look dry for a good 4-5 days around here.

Almost forgot i added a new page to the site which now includes SE FLA local news radars
Something I haven't seen anybody allude to so far is that pool of super-anomalously warm water along the New England coast. I keep thinking that if the SSTs in that area continue that much warmer than average, anything that makes it that far north will have lots of energy to keep it going. And, given the potential set-up this year, there may be a storm or two skirting that area before recurviture. Is this the year when "It could happen tomorrow" becomes "it did happen?"

Also, I'm now curious if the SSTs in that area in 1938 were abnormally warm. That could explain, at least in part, why the "Long Island Express" retained such force as it made landfall.
So baha do you think this year is set up for a new england hurricane or is this a 30 year long new england lul
1524. BahaHurican 10:49 AM AST on April 20, 2008
What's THIS?


interaction between a surface trof and weak upper trough
In VA serious rain fall 1.5 inches and lots of runoff some puddles were 1 feet deep
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

An upper level ridge centered over the Bay of Campeche near 20N/95W is producing anticyclonic upper level flow over the area between 80W and 105W with mid-upper level moisture producing scattered cloudiness and showers over Northeast Mexico and Texas and high level clouds moving over Louisiana and Alabama. RGB animations show a weak frontal boundary stalled out across area from Central Florida to the Central Gulf near 25N/90W. The feature is embedded within a dry stable flow east of the upper ridge, thereby only low clouds exist along this feature and fair weather dominates. Very weak surface pressure pattern is over the Gulf this morning with 5-10 knot winds producing no more than 4 ft easterly seas. This pattern should remain unchanged over the next day.

A cold front continues from central Florida through 30N/80W to 34N/78W. Scattered moderate to strong showers within 60 nmi of the front north of 30N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the Western Atlantic from 20N-26N between 75W-60W. This activity is associated with divergent flow aloft to the east of a weak upper trough along 75W...aided by surface convergence and low level lift induced by a two surface troughs near the Turks Islands at 72W and along 23N/65W-30N/55W.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Mainly fair weather exists across the Caribbean Basin today under the influence of a relatively dry and stable airmass. Further south, active thunderstorms over South America and the Eastern Pacific associated with the monsoon trough and NECZ. These thunderstorms are developing under the influence of a favorable upper ridge which is also advecting high level debris clouds from this activity across the Caribbean between Lower Central America and the Windward Islands. High pressure north of the area in the Central Atlantic will maintain steady easterly winds across the Caribbean. Short period easterly swells of 4-5 ft will push through the Caribbean increasing to 7-11 ft across the Southwest Caribbean. These seas should subside a bit through the next 24 hrs as the pressure gradient north of the region weakens due the passage of a low pressure area.


by W456
Thanks, 456. I only looked at the surface map, so couldn't figure out what was causing the reaction. . . .

all4h,

I really can't say one way or the other. We are still way too far away from the start of the season to have a strong sense on where the Bermuda high will set up, and thus steering patterns in general are still pretty much "up in the air". However, East coast strikes have been climatalogically more likely during the 2nd year of a la nina or during a neutral-with-cold-bias season. So it COULD happen, but currently there's no way to tell if it WILL.

I guess I'm saying prepare for the worst, hope for the best. :o)
JFV, the Bermuda High doesnt set up till mid may at earliest, sometimes much later(into July even)
Good information for effects of El Nino and La Nina on Atlantic wind shear velocity from Link

El Nino: Across the tropical Atlantic, these same wind departures increase the total vertical wind shear, often to levels far too high for hurricanes to form. There tend to be fewer Atlantic hurricanes during El Niño because of this expanded area of high vertical wind shear.

La Nina: Across the tropical Atlantic these same wind patterns are opposite to those normally observed, and result in lower vertical wind shear. There tend to be more Atlantic hurricanes during La Niña because of this expanded area of low vertical wind shear.

The chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience a hurricane increase substantially during La Niña, and decrease during El Niño.
El Viejo?! Never heard that one before...
Link

...during an El Nino, the probability of 2 or more hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. is 28%. The reanalysis further determines that the probability of 2 or more U.S. hurricanes during the other two phases is larger: 48% during neutral years and 66% during El Viejo. Also, we determine the range of these strike probabilities for El Nino and El Viejo. Strike probabilities of major U.S. hurricanes during each ENSO phase are also considered.
El Viejo is the original term for La Nina if I recall right. (now I will check that link to see)
2 points for Mo! Ivan is watching race today. Will be on much later!
1533. JFV 12:22 PM AST on April 20, 2008
Hey Weather456, when are you expecting wind shear values to drop drastically across the entrie basin, prior to June 1st arriving?


Excellent question becuz I was looking into that yesterday.

The main features that is going to influence the shear over the Western Atlantic (which includes GOM, CARIB SEA and SW North Atlantic, all east of 60W), is a climatological upper ridge and the subtropical jet.

I have begun to notice peristent ridging over Northern South America, the Eastern Pacifc, Central America and Mexico. This ridge normally moves north to its summer positions over the Four Corners (Monsoon ridge) and the Continental USA (Continental ridge). It has been noted that this ridging creates favorable wind shear over the West Caribbean and Gulf as it transit northwards. This creates an enviroment favorable for TC development. Over the next 2-4 weeks we can expect shear values to gradually decrease and normally followed by a drastic fall in June but confined only to the afformentioned regions.

the subtropical jet is a persistent feature near 20N-35W from 80W to West Africa which creates substantially values of vertical wind shear. This feature begins to weaken in Late June into July.

And lastly, the tropical atlantic and west coast of Africa. This area will be influence by the movement of the ITCZ. In the general circulation in the tropics air convergences into the ITCZ, rises and flows outward in the upper troposphere (outflow). This outflow is both associated with favorable wind shear and once again upper ridging (due to release of heat from condensation).

Afternoon W456!

A quick question; what effects can an unfavorable QBO have on the Atlantic basin? There's been a lot of talk about the QBO as a potential suppressing factor lately and I really don't know what to make of it...
CMC forecasting a Non-tropical low pressure area to develop soon near Bermuda.

CMC forecasting a Non-tropical low pressure area to develop soon near Bermuda.

Complete cold core...
456, that's why June development occurs mainly in Caribbean or GOM. Early(May) development in the E-Pac often inhibits such development. The SSTs warming and active ITCZ in that area are a hint that it won't be an early season for us.
Good afternoon all. Quite a strong impulse coming off Africa today.
1545. Ivans

Not to mention the current extremely low location of the ITCZ here.
1542. TerraNova 12:53 PM AST on April 20, 2008
Afternoon W456!

A quick question; what effects can an unfavorable QBO have on the Atlantic basin? There's been a lot of talk about the QBO as a potential suppressing factor lately and I really don't know what to make of it...


During the QBO, Atlantic tropical cyclones are more frequent when 30 mb winds are westerly and increasing, rather than easterly and increasing. There have been 44% more hurricanes and 74% more hurricane days during the west as opposed to east phase of the QBO.

The QBO Index is postive when we are in an easterly phase and negative when we are in a westerly phase

July 2004 - Easterly Phase 11.75
July 2005 - Westerly Phase -20.60
July 2006 - Easterly Phase 11.46
July 2007 - Westerly Phase -21.34
Mar 2008 - Easterly Phase 2.18 (Increasing)


Figure 4: QBO 30 mb Index. Gray pointed out that the QBO was in a easterly phase in Jult 2004 and that it would transition to a westerly phase in the following season, that is July 2005. This graph shows the last QBO index was in the westerly phase in 2007 which correlates to an easterly phase in 2008.
For CaneAddict, you can use this in your Blob Watch section. Any thoughts on the impulse off Africa or am I beginning to "Blob Watch" as well?
1547. cchsweatherman 1:17 PM AST on April 20, 2008
Good afternoon all. Quite a strong impulse coming off Africa today.


It appears to be the same propagating wave- like feature that I've tracking all week.
No. I did last week.
1557. Drakoen
CFS sst forecast. Continues to show a warming trend in the MDR and also the EPAC...

1552. cchsweatherman 1:35 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
For CaneAddict, you can use this in your Blob Watch section. Any thoughts on the impulse off Africa or am I beginning to "Blob Watch" as well?
Action: | Ignore User


Good idea, Will do later, I am off all! BBL

Joshs Weather Center
Severe weather breaking out in Eastern N.C.

"New severe thunderstorm watch"

Several reports of hail,wind,and tornado damage.
So... if vertical shear increases as a result of the increased energy in the global system due to climate change, this apparently means there will be on average fewer hurricanes and more tornadoes, though those hurricanes which do form will be stronger than usual.

I did wonder this. One thing that happens in the wake of hurricanes is that they leave behind pockets of cooler waters after churning 'em up. If there are fewer hurricanes and less churning, what effects could this have? (Speculation fine...)
Thanks for your earlier response, 456.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
208 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTERN STOKES COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
CITY OF MARTINSVILLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
SOUTHEASTERN PATRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT.

* AT 206 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SPENCER TO PINE HALL...OR ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM SPENCER TO MADISON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
19 MPH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS
WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

1557. Drakoen 1:42 PM AST on April 20, 2008
CFS sst forecast. Continues to show a warming trend in the MDR and also the EPAC...


I am amazed by the rate of the forecasted warming. I am anxiously awaiting the April ENSO index, my thinking is that it would be somewhere in the range of -1.0 and -0.2.
While observing satellite imagery over Africa, I've begun to notice an expansive mass of building convection over Eastern Africa that could become the next surge of activity along the ITCZ. In addition, it almost appears as if the ITCZ has gone soemwhere around a half-degree to one full degree northward just within the past 24 hours. Any thoughts on the current ITCZ activity? 456, what would you currently describe the impulse off Africa as? It does not seem like a classic AEW, but it has some resemblance to one.
Forgot to add the image.
1564. Weather456 2:14 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
1557. Drakoen 1:42 PM AST on April 20, 2008
CFS sst forecast. Continues to show a warming trend in the MDR and also the EPAC...

I am amazed by the rate of the forecasted warming. I am anxiously awaiting the April ENSO index, my thinking is that it would be somewhere in the range of -1.0 and -0.2.



Yeah, that caught my eye also. The other thing that caught my eye is that the Caribbean is forecast to stay relatively cool until Aug-Sep. Meanwhile, waters in the ATL, both in and out of the MDR, seem to warm up a bit faster. Also, note the pools of warm SSTs poleward along the east coasts of Australia, Asia, S and N America.
1568. K8e1
guys
even in a full blown el nino there will still be hurricanes
where they go is the big issue
Over 2 inches of rain in VA and its still going
CCH,

1. The feature that just came off the west coast of Africa is the same feature that travelled along the Guinea coast over the past several days. During this period there was PV maximum and 700-500 mb wind shifts assoicated with this feature. In addition during the passage of this feature, most stations along the Guinea coast report a fall in pressure and drop in RH values, typical of AEWs. This could be just another convective pulse or a weak AEW.

2. The ITCZ, I like to use the term monsoon trough better, becomes distorted but still exists over the terrain of Eastern Africa. Those thunderstorms over E Africa formed by daytime heating enhance by the AEJ. Any of those progating westward is identified as a wave. That is really the first stage of development - development of snyoptic thunderstorms within the instability over Eastern Africa.
The GOES loops off the SSD site are not showing SST's when you click on the switch. It will show the fronts, but not the SST's. It's been working, wonder why it's not working today?

LOOP
So 456 you saying those will be the first wave(s)?
Or maybe could be the first wave?
1573. extreme236 3:21 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
Or maybe could be the first wave?


If i am not mistaking, Did'nt the NHC idetify our first tropical wave in the first week of April?
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
323 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CHATHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SILER CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 MPH.
PENNY SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL NORTHERN CHATHAM COUNTY

Well it was more of an unofficial first one...they didn't know for sure if it was or not. It probably was the first one so maybe that mass could become the second one when it comes off the coast?
1576. extreme236 3:30 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
Well it was more of an unofficial first one...they didn't know for sure if it was or not. It probably was the first one so maybe that mass could become the second one when it comes off the coast?


Good point extreme, Now thinking back i remember them saying that it could possibly be considered the first AEW. So yeah if this one is indeed confirmed a wave than i guess we could consider it the first.
It has gone north.
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N23W 3N30W 1N40W TO THE
EQUATOR AT 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
210 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 33W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 25W-27W.
04/19/2008 0845 PM
N.C Severe weather
Lincolnton, Lincoln County.


Tornado, reported by County official.


Reports of several trees and power lines down. A few
homes damaged. Time estimated from radar.


04/19/2008 0820 PM

Fallston, Cleveland County.

Tornado, reported by County official.


Multiple trees down... a barn partial collapsed... shingles
lifted off several roofs. Several witnesses to the
tornado.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
347 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

NCC013-202030-
/O.CON.KMHX.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-080420T2030Z/
BEAUFORT NC-
347 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR WESTERN
BEAUFORT COUNTY...

AT 343 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR SHADY BANKS NEAR THE PAMLICO RIVER...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CHOCOWINITY BY 355 PM EDT...
RIVER ROAD BY 400 PM EDT...
WASHINGTON PARK BY 405 PM EDT...
BUNYAN AND WASHINGTON BY 415 PM EDT...
SLATESTONE...OLD FORD...7 MILES WEST OF WALLA WATTA AND 8 MILES
WEST OF PINETOWN BY 430 PM EDT...
1572. extreme236 3:12 PM AST on April 20, 2008
So 456 you saying those will be the first wave(s)?


There have about 2 features that have stricking AEW characteristics.
04/20/2008 0342 PM

River Road, Beaufort County.

Funnel cloud, reported by public.


2 reports of funnel clouds reaching the ground near Shady
Banks




04/20/2008 0345 PM

River Road, Beaufort County.

Tornado, reported by public.


Reports of tornado on the ground near Shady Banks





04/20/2008 0320 PM

Blounts Creek, Beaufort County.

Funnel cloud, reported by County official.





04/20/2008 0335 PM

River Road, Beaufort County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Quarter size hail and getting larger





04/20/2008 0320 PM

River Road, Beaufort County.

Hail e0.75 inch, reported by broadcast media.





04/20/2008 0327 PM

River Road, Beaufort County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.


Shady Banks beach Road


1572. extreme236 3:12 PM AST on April 20, 2008
So 456 you saying those will be the first wave(s)?

There have about 2 features that have stricking AEW characteristics.
It would deffinitely be interesting to see one of them TRY to develop.
Can you (456) post the link to the best satellite view of the waves right now?
I'm back, haven't had much to say since it snowed in Florida. Ready for the hurricane season. It looks like we will not know anything for a while on how the season will play out.
Right now anything that emerges off the coast will get hammered with about 50 knots of shear.
Not surprised about the shear at this time of year.
1586. extreme236 4:06 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
Right now anything that emerges off the coast will get hammered with about 50 knots of shear.
Action: | Ignore User


True but it is still interesting to watch wave's determined to develop lol.
200 Comments Sort: Newest First - Order Posted Filter: Show All Show Bad Show Below Average Show Average Show Good Show Best

1587. EvanKisseloff 4:08 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
Not surprised about the shear at this time of year.


Shear is actually lower than average....signs of things to come?

Somewhere I heard that the La Nina will weaken throughout the season, so we may end up in a neutral mode. So I guess it is possible. The only think that got me was that a cold front moved through Florida in mid-April...very rare. That could signal many troughs to come off the US Coast, creating too much windshear for development.
Link


Tornado warning. Storm is not moving. Radar idicates 4+inches of rain.With egg size hail according to the warning.
Somewhere I heard that the La Nina will weaken throughout the season, so we may end up in a neutral mode. So I guess it is possible. The only think that got me was that a cold front moved through Florida in mid-April...very rare. That could signal many troughs to come off the US Coast, creating too much windshear for development.

No actually that doesent mean the slightest thing, Just a late front, Rare but late.
Is there any spottings of the tornado? Or is it just indicated by doppler radar?
1593. CaneAddict 8:15 PM GMT on April 20, 2008
Somewhere I heard that the La Nina will weaken throughout the season, so we may end up in a neutral mode. So I guess it is possible. The only think that got me was that a cold front moved through Florida in mid-April...very rare. That could signal many troughs to come off the US Coast, creating too much windshear for development.

No actually that doesent mean the slightest thing, Just a late front, Rare but late.


Sorry, my mistake.
1594. EvanKisseloff 8:16 PM GMT on April 20, 2008
Is there any spottings of the tornado? Or is it just indicated by doppler radar?
Action: | Ignore User


With this storm it has been reported with 2funnels, and egg size hail.
By spotter or doppler?
1593. CaneAddict 8:15 PM GMT on April 20, 2008
Somewhere I heard that the La Nina will weaken throughout the season, so we may end up in a neutral mode. So I guess it is possible. The only think that got me was that a cold front moved through Florida in mid-April...very rare. That could signal many troughs to come off the US Coast, creating too much windshear for development.

No actually that doesent mean the slightest thing, Just a late front, Rare but late.


Sorry, my mistake


Dont be, Your still learning like i am.
Spotters"

Be back later.

Also, 3 tornado warnings for V.A.
Afternoon everyone.

There are two tornado warnings in effect; one in Virginia, one in North Carolina.

A possible tornado is located a few miles south of Bowling Green. Base Velocity does not show a rotation at the surface, but Storm Relative shows turning higher up.

Another possible tornado is associated with a cell nearing Washington, NC. This storm has a TVS (tornado vortex signature) on radar, and a tornado has previously been reported by the public from this storm. The MESO/TVS is located a mile or two south of Chocowinity. This rotation shows up much clearer on radar, and it looks to me that there is currently at least funnel cloud along US 17. This is the more dangerous cell...it may be forming a hook echo.


AT 420 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
NEW TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CHOCOWINITY...OR ABOUT 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WASHINGTON...MOVING NORTH AT 13 MPH.

AT 343 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR SHADY BANKS NEAR THE PAMLICO RIVER...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.
Alright, it looks like there is more to be watching in terms of tornadoes than hurricanes right now. Just checking in. Will be back soon.
Pop quiz question: In which year since 1950 was the greatest number of NW Pacific tropical cyclones observed???
New tornado warning out for the area of Washington (this all just happens too fast lol).
Funnel on webcam?!
Tornado on ground on webcam!!!
Yep, the webcam is now showing a rotation on the ground...
Now they changed the view I cant see it.
I have never seen a tornado on webcam touching the trees.

Be bak later

Is there any way to look back at it?
Ya, it's a first for me, too. Wish I had gotten a screenshot...

AT 434 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR CHOCOWINITY...OR ABOUT NEAR WASHINGTON...MOVING NORTH AT
13 MPH.
Link

Massive funnel on webcam now
1613. hydrus
BAHA HURRICANE-What is the answer to that question?I took a guess with 32 tropical cyclones.
I saved one image.(Wished I saved the one view of the funnel touching the trees)

What, no guesses on the WPac storm record???
Sorry hydrus, just saw your post . . .

Anyway, for those interested the year was 1964. Apparently they had more than 50 TDs, and variously 44 or 39 of them became TCs (depending on who you ask :o). Plus they had 26 TYPHOONS that year. That's as many as we had storms in 2005! They had 7 super-typhoons, 2 of which had 195mph winds, and all between May and December. The Phillipines must have gotten hit about 10 times . . .

Check out the Wiki and JWTC.
1617. hydrus
I hope we never hit that mark here.It was a little busy for us in 1964.We had Dora,Cleo and Isbell.
1618. hydrus
and i dont want to imagine getting whacked by 10 tropical cyclones in one season either.
They're showing the tornado from earlier on TV. I just watched it form and die the reform the die then reform.
... Two tornadoes confirmed in North Carolina...

The Greenville Spartanburg office of the National Weather Service
has completed its initial survey of two storm tracks in the
western Piedmont of North Carolina.

The first track indicated a tornado just south of follston in
northern Cleveland County. The damage path was 4.5 miles long and
25 yards wide. The tornado was on the ground between 805 and 811
PM EDT. The wind speed in the tornado was estimated to be between
100 and 105 mph. The equates to an EF-1 on the Enhanced Fujita
scale.

The second track indicated a tornado about 5 miles west of
Lincolnton. The damage path was 4.1 miles long and 30 yards wide.
The exact time of the tornado has not been confirmed... but most
witnesses estimated that the storm hit between 910 and 915 PM EDT.
The winds speed in the tornado was estimated to be between 95 and
105 mph. This equates to an EF-1 on the Enhanced Fujita scale.

If additional information is need... please contact the Vince
dicarlo 864-848-9970 x 223.

Actually 2 of them had 195mph winds.
I think it is just convection associated with the ITCZ..
1625. JRRP
Here in Dominican Republic:
Tornado in la vega
more information later
CaneAddict,
What satellite site is that?


StormW, It's a pretty nice satellite, Click here!
Thanks, 236. It was a typo.
If that doesent work. click here.
Any comments on post 1622??
1622. CaneAddict 6:22 PM AST on April 20, 2008

That is the feature we were talking about earlier that showed resemblence to an easterly wave. Personally, I believe its a weak wave becuz of its genesis and it has possess a constant wave-like nature over the past week.



1622. CaneAddict 6:22 PM EDT on April 20, 2008

It could be an AEW (see post #1570).
Not gonna form!
1634. JRRP
first tropical wave in 2005:May 2
first tropical wave this year: could be now??
StormW; evening! A question (apologies for all these questions lately) real quick: how can you determine if a cluster of storms is associated with a tropical wave or is something else, by looking at satellite images and atmospheric analyses (vorticity, etc.)? Thanks...
1633. all4hurricanes 10:47 PM GMT on April 20, 2008 Hide this comment.
Not gonna form!


Remember in 2003, Tropical Storm Ana Formed around this time in April.
1633. all4hurricanes 6:47 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
Not gonna form!


Don't jump the gun, I am glad you know at least enough to know it won't form.
1636. weatherfromFlorida 7:03 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
1633. all4hurricanes 10:47 PM GMT on April 20, 2008 Hide this comment.
Not gonna form!

Remember in 2003, Tropical Storm Ana Formed around this time in April.


That's true but i think me and you both KNOW this is'nt going to become a Tropical Storm, lol.
Remember in 2003, Tropical Storm Ana Formed around this time in April.

Ana formed in the Central Atlantic, near Bermuda. I think all4hurricanes was talking about the "wave" out by Africa...

Still, the chances of anything forming out of this are zero. Or at most very very VERY small. Smaller than microscopic. Like one water molecule in a whole ocean. Shear, dust, and the like. Conditions are just unfavorable.
1634. JRRP 5:50 PM CDT on April 20, 2008
first tropical wave in 2005:May 2
first tropical wave this year: could be now??



We already had the first wave this year - and according to the NHC:


500. hurricane23 7:46 PM CDT on April 10, 2008
There you go here is your first customer to go poof!

8:05 PM EDT Discussion from TPC about the possible first wave.

AN ELONGATED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
W AFRICA TO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH AN AXIS RUNNING
FROM 20N06W TO 12N53W. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THE LAST FEW DAYS...THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
INTEREST WHICH HAVE EMERGED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
IS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER N OF THE ITCZ...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 5N18W MOVING W AT
15 TO 20 KT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE CONSIDERED ONE OF THE
SEASONS FIRST AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVES
. THE SECOND FEATURE IS
ALONG ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH OF NORTHEASTERLIES CONVERGING
WITH EASTERLIES BETWEEN 8N AND 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. EARLIER
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A TIGHTLY-COILED LOW- TO
PERHAPS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NEAR
9N46W....THOUGH THE CONVECTION SINCE THAT TIME HAS COLLAPSED.
this is some in from 03 blog


Sunday April 20th. Update:
Well its that time of year again when we begin to examine the area off the Southeast Coast, remember Andrea?? The models are coming into good agreement in developing a Cut-Off Low off the North Carolina coast by Monday and slowly moving it Southeast to a position near or East of the Bahamas by the end of the week. This is the time of year where we need to watch these Cut-Off Lows in this area because they can easily become Subtropical systems. The CMC, UKMET, NOGAPS and the GFS all show this system developing. All of them have this system eventually moving out to sea to the East and Northeast, but slowly. So its time to blob watch this week again, as we watch the area off the Southeast coast!!!

taz link?
It's from 2003, addi.
1626. CaneAddict 6:33 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
Cane, that is a pretty cool composite page. Wish they'd do the S. Hemisphere / Indian basins in colour too. Somehow the dark blue makes the cloud masses stand out better to me . . .
CA, thanks for the sat link. Excellent quality and choices.
TN, the SSTs are not there to support any major tropical development yet. Such a system may be major erosion problem for E FL coast. (Non Tropical lows can get strong too)
Srry I wasn't here for the argument I started If theres any confusion i intended the wave not to form but the other blob ain't gonna form either
2.5 inches of rain fell today!
nothing is gonna form till hurricane season!
I checked out the 1964 nw pacific typhoon season that was the answer to someones trivia they had some wild storms
JFV, W.Caribbean development is just as big a threat to Fl Peninsula as CV storms. Any major storm hitting either coast is threat to other coast since everglades and FL topography dont do much to tropical systems. Wilma and Irene are two that mad major effect on E.C. but came from other side.
1643. BahaHurican 8:15 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
It's from 2003, addi.


HAHA! No it was from o3's blog lol.... meaning weatherguy03 lol.

1626. CaneAddict 6:33 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
Cane, that is a pretty cool composite page. Wish they'd do the S. Hemisphere / Indian basins in colour too. Somehow the dark blue makes the cloud masses stand out better to me . . .

1646. Ivansrvivr 8:20 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
CA, thanks for the sat link. Excellent quality and choices.


You guys are welcome.
Next area of concern in the SE Bay of Bengal - 94B

That sat page went straight to the faves list. We got good rain this afternoon off seabreeze/front interaction. Maybe enough moisture for more tomorrow.
Srry I wasn't here for the argument I started If theres any confusion i intended the wave not to form but the other blob ain't gonna form either
2.5 inches of rain fell today!
nothing is gonna form till hurricane season!


Give support to your statements, I want to know how you can say there WILL not be ANY development untill hurricane season. Don't make statements without any supportive reason.
No Problem JFV. Don't be afraid to ask questions. We are all here to learn.
Next area of concern in the SE Bay of Bengal - 94B

Looks to be close to depression status.
456 thanks i didn't see that storm forming do you think they'll name it?
I am predicting late start to season but am in no way stating that as fact. Nobody knows until the first one forms.
Storms that form in Bay of Bengal area are usually flood makers. Very moisture laden.
Srry Ivan nothing that will be called a depression will form till hurricane season if i'm wrong sue me
1661. Ivansrvivr 8:35 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
I am predicting late start to season but am in no way stating that as fact. Nobody knows until the first one forms.


I respectfully/kindly disagree.
1663. all4hurricanes 8:36 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
Srry Ivan nothing that will be called a depression will form till hurricane season if i'm wrong sue me


Ivan did'nt say anything would develop BEFORE hurricane season. He actually said the opposite, That the first system would form AFTER the start of hurricane season. And there you go again using the word WILL with out having any kind of support to your statements.
Cane nothing will form until hurricane season
respectively disagreeing
Cane addict srry for using will but now your eligible to sue me jk
1666. all4hurricanes 8:38 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
Cane nothing will form until hurricane season
respectively disagreeing


all4hurricanes, I didnt say anything WILL form before hurricane season, i said i think something will form before hurricane season. Stop using that word WILL as if what your saying is a FACT. When you make a statement like that, have support to go with it.
Give support to your statements, I want to know how you can say there WILL not be ANY development untill hurricane season. Don't make statements without any supportive reason.

He doesn't have anything to back up his statements. In all likelihood, nothing will form until hurricane season, though. Never usually does. People like him are usually just trying to get a rise out of people. Just ignore people that try and do that. I apologize though if that's not what you are trying to do, all4hurricanes.

I am predicting late start to season but am in no way stating that as fact. Nobody knows until the first one forms.

I am predicting that also, based on past data. The fact that I predict no early season development has nothing to do with a possible El Nino, however, since it's unlikely to affect the early portion of the season if it develops. I think it won't affect the season until around October or so, after the peak has already come and gone. I do, however, predict a tropical depression or two will form prior to August, just not get named.
I said im sorry!!!
can i say should?
and my reasoning is because water temperatures are low dust and shear cover the rest of the Atlantic and early storms aren't typical
456, Do you agree that there is a possibility of Sub-Tropical development from that Cut-off low that models are all over? Slim possibility may be a better way to put it.
1670. all4hurricanes 8:41 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
I said im sorry!!!


It's alright i just get quickly irritated by folks when they state there opinion as a statement or fact. I'm sure you didnt mean to sound that way. It's ok though!
I said im sorry!!!
can i say should?
and my reasoning is because water temperatures are low dust and shear cover the rest of the Atlantic and early storms aren't typical


SSTs are heating up a bit in the far eastern Atlantic. They have recently cooled in the northeastern Gulf and the western Carribean, however, due to that recent arctic outbreak. But now that that is gone, they will quickly heat back up. Dust has also been considerably low this year, and if that keeps up, the MDR will warm up fast (provided the trade winds are weaker than normal). And it's true early season storms aren't typical, and I can't speak for anyone else here, but I myself don't think anything will form prior to June, either. I agree with you on that. Certainly possible an invest will form before June, though.
Can I say should or should not
Invests are certainly possible even now i'll agree to that
To add to my post (1673), shear will gradually lessen as the season nears.
Hey, Ivan! Nice, new avatar? MO looks good! ;P
1678. Michfan
Say i think is probably better because it infers that it is an opinion and not fact. Sometimes words get twisted and confused around this blog due improper wording or misconceptions so its wise to make sure that people see what your saying is merely opinion.
Can I say should or should not

LOL

Might want to say should or should not, since people don't like it when someone states an opinion as fact (e.g. will or won't). Until something is already written in stone (like Katrina's landfall along the LA/MS border was written in stone hours before the landfall), I wouldn't go around saying this or that won't happen.
I give it 1 in 100 odds. I have predicted late start to hurricane season. While there may be a sub-tropical system or even two, how many S.T. Storms have became hurricanes in pre-season?
That is not Mo. That is Mo's wild ancestor. It is a Margay.
During La Nina years, we tend to see more more Caribbean activity late in the season (but that's assuming La Nina lasts; I know it's a long shot)...
1680. Ivansrvivr 9:03 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
I give it 1 in 100 odds. I have predicted late start to hurricane season. While there may be a sub-tropical system or even two, how many S.T. Storms have became hurricanes in pre-season?


I can agree for sure that a hurricane is HIGHLY unlikely pre-season even in the month of June.
Hey Gang...It is all about the butterflies. :-)

To paraphrase an old saying...It aint Hurricane season until the first hurricane.

Until then...everything is an opinion or a guess.
June hurricanes are not impossible. With the East Pacific SSTs warming, I suspect early action over there will hinder early caribbean action.
1685. Ivansrvivr 9:13 PM EDT on April 20, 2008
June hurricanes are not impossible. With the East Pacific SSTs warming, I suspect early action over there will hinder early caribbean action.


I did'nt say June hurricanes are impossible, I said they are not likely. (If you were directing that post towards me)
1687. Drakoen
Mean Sea Level Pressure March Anomalies
SLP
1660. all4hurricanes 8:35 PM AST on April 20, 2008
456 thanks i didn't see that storm forming do you think they'll name it?


Yes. If organization continues

1671. CaneAddict 8:43 PM AST on April 20, 2008
456, Do you agree that there is a possibility of Sub-Tropical development from that Cut-off low that models are all over? Slim possibility may be a better way to put it.


Lets look at this way.....enviromental conditions do not appear favorable for subtropical development but becuz of the nature of the cut-off low (vertically stacked and rainfall pattern)...its an area to monitor for signs of development. Sometimes its not possible for computer models to forecast enviromental changes cuzed by system themselves so its best to look at the system when and if it develops.
Drakoen, hey! Interesting chart. Am I reading that pressures have been higher in March, both above and below the ITCZ? Would that explain or elude to more activity there?
Actually I believe that more than 1/3 of all June named storms become 'Canes. (that is from memory & is not always reliable)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE #4
===================================
Related to the Tropical Depression referred by TCWC Jakarta

TROPICAL LOW
9.4ºS 99.4ºE - 30 knots 998

At 8:00 am WST a Tropical Low estimated to be
420 kilometres northeast of Cocos Is and 700 kilometres west of Christmas Is has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The tropical low is reported moving east southeast at 16 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a cyclone during Tuesday but is not expected to cause gales at Christmas Island within the next 24 hours. However gales may develop later on Tuesday if the low develops further. Heavy rain is likely on Christmas Island during Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Alerts
-------------------------
A Cyclone Watch remains in effect for Christmas Island
1693. Drakoen
1689. moonlightcowboy 1:24 AM GMT on April 21, 2008
Drakoen, hey! Interesting chart. Am I reading that pressures have been higher in March, both above and below the ITCZ? Would that explain or elude to more activity there?


I'll get a close up on the image for you. Remember the ITCZ is really the great belt of convergent winds a lower pressure. The pressures would really have to be higher to suppress the activity there.
1689. This goes to Meteorology 101 and is very good question. High pressure pushes air away and down. The stronger high on either side of ITCZ means more air colliding(convergence) which forces lift. That is what fuels the ITCZ. The CZ in ITCZ is "convergence zone". Stronger highs on both sides would increase convergence and associated storms.
1695. Drakoen
1694. Ivansrvivr 1:31 AM GMT on April 21, 2008
1689. This goes to Meteorology 101 and is very good question. High pressure pushes air away and down. The stronger high on either side of ITCZ means more air colliding(convergence) which forces lift. That is what fuels the ITCZ. The CZ in ITCZ is "convergence zone". Stronger highs on both sides would increase convergence and associated storms.


Exactly if you are refering to the two high in the North and South atlantic with the increase tradewinds convergence.
Drak was able to put my answer into fewer words. That shows how/why Drak is one of most knowledgable people here.
1697. Drakoen
1696. Ivansrvivr 1:34 AM GMT on April 21, 2008
Drak was able to put my answer into fewer words. That shows how/why Drak is one of most knowledgable people here.


Simplicity is easier...
We in Florida see similar effect with seabreeze storms in summer afternoon. Also when there is strong high to our north and low or stalled front to our south and we get "gradient winds" That is why it was so windy in FL with Noel last fall. The strong high was pushing air away and Noel aggravated situation.
And with more knowledge comes simplicity.
I noticed that the daily SOI has become positive again (i.e. La Nina), but that may be a little misleading; notice the SLP anomalies in the eastern Pacific, along with the South Pacific (the pattern supports stronger than average trades in the western Pacific but weaker in the eastern Pacific, like we have been seeing for several months now and is not really supportive of a La Nina, when trades are stronger across the entire Pacific; a weaker South Pacific subtropical ridge like shown below, aside from one small area, also means weaker trades, just as a weaker Bermuda High means weaker trades in the Atlantic); the 30 day value is also still falling since the daily readings a month ago were higher:

Date: 20 Apr, 2008

Average SOI for last 30 days : 4.63
Average SOI for last 90 days : 12.41
Daily contributor to SOI calculation: 12.26



For comparison, see the 30 day SLP means/anomalies here.

TAO shows that winds are almost nonexistant in the eastern Pacific and weaker than average; blue areas in the top image indicate the weakest winds:

There are ''areas'' of high pressure to the north and to the south, of the ITCZ...
STL, I came to the conclusion that watching SOI is like watching "stock market". It is trends over time rather than daily changes which make SOI such good tool for forecasting. The other factors you pointed out will show up in SOI sooner or later.
1701. Tell me more.
Twin tropical cyclone formation possible

By the way, here is the position the ITCZ usually is...in July, (compared to where it is in January)...

456, one or the other of those two will win out. The weaker one will get absorbed into stronger one most likely.
77. how about ITCZ now compared to where it should be now?
You're missing the possible cyclone west of your lower area of interest, The CMC has been hinting formation near Diego Garcia for some time now along with the Indonesian invest.
1706. Ivansrvivr 1:57 AM GMT on April 21, 2008
456, one or the other of those two will win out. The weaker one will get absorbed into stronger one most likely.


One invest is going probably moving northwest while the other is moving southeast though..
1706. Ivansrvivr 9:57 PM AST on April 20, 2008
456, one or the other of those two will win out. The weaker one will get absorbed into stronger one most likely.


Nope....They are at opposite ends of the Equator meaning they are moving away from each other. We had twin tropical cyclone formation back in November 2007.
1708 That one actually looks like it is already absorbing southern system. They may end up being absorbed by the one to the west. Depends on where conditions are best for development most likely.
1708. HadesGodWyvern 10:00 PM AST on April 20, 2008
You're missing the possible cyclone west of your lower area of interest, The CMC has been hinting formation near Diego Garcia for some time now along with the Indonesian invest.


I didnt miss it but i didnt circle it either
Ivan, the ITCZ follows the location of the sun's rays (that's why it's further north, during summer, and further south, during winter); I'm not sure where the ITCZ should be located now (about 6N-7N)?
I didnt realize that was equator makes development there seem a bit odd but I dont follow wx on that side of the earth closely so I understand that I don't understand.
It's getting late here, though... Goodnight all...
Here's something

Good night all
One invest is going probably moving northwest while the other is moving southeast though..

that would be unusual situation where outflow would reduce shear. I have never even imagined such development. Those 2 storms would feed each other like that.
area of interest as system exits mid atlantic states around 75w/35n drifs se ward into west atl. also noting 2 nd area near 63 w/25 n ne of P.R/DOM
The ITCZ is nearly always north of the equator. See ITCZ info here. But, both of you - Ivan and Drak, answered the question quite well. Drak's chart showed positive pressure anomalies, both n and s of the ITCZ. And, you both answered similarly that those higher pressures would yield more convergence, more activity. So, the conclusion I draw, is that (along with other variables) a more active ITCZ means increased possibilities of ts development in the cATL. Thanks, again, fellas! :)
Have a good sleep, Stormdude, 456 and BAHA, too.
Goodnight, all. Gotta get out early in the a. m. . . . [groan]
One last post before I go . . . the three invests.

1724. JRRP
.
Have a good sleep, all, and a good week, too!
Magnitude 4.5
Date-Time Monday, April 21, 2008 at 05:38:30 UTC
Monday, April 21, 2008 at 12:38:30 AM at epicenter

Location 38.473°N, 87.823°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region ILLINOIS

---
ground continues to shake this happened about 20-25 minutes ago near the same region as Friday.
Whoa, Hades! Ground's still moving - yikes!
1728. Harls11
The ground is still shaking? That can't be good.
oops by shaking I meant periodically since Friday. This recent aftershock has to be at least the 8th or 9th quake since Friday, I believe.
Tropical Cyclone Alert WTSX21
06:30 UTC April 21, 2008
--------------------------

An area of convection (95S) located near 9.2S 100.3E or 265 NM northeast of the Cocos Islands. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery and a 0010z SSMI Microwave Image depicts organized deep convection developing around a consolidating low level circulation center. Strong surface westerlies to the north of the disturbance are helping to enhance low level vorticity. The disturbance lies under a region of low to moderate vertical winds shear with good poleward outflow ahead of an upper level midlatitude trough located to the southwest.Maximum sustained winds near the center is 27-32 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1000 mb, Based on improving low level organization and upper level support, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED. THIS ALERT MAY BE RE-ISSUED, CANCELLED, OR UPGRADED TO A WARNING by 0630z 22APR.
Bureau of Meteorology - Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 5
6:00 AM UTC April 21, 2008


At 3:00 pm WST a Tropical Low [998 hPa] estimated to be 560 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Is and 555 kilometres northeast of Cocos Is and moving east at 18 kilometres per hour.The low may develop into a cyclone during Tuesday. Heavy rain and GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop over Christmas Island later on Tuesday as the system approaches.

Tropical Cyclone Alerts
-------------------------
A Cyclone Warning has been declared for Christmas Island
So there are two forming cyclones one in the bay of Bengal and one in SE Indian ocean where are they headed?

4 inches of rain in the past 30 hours
The CMC is showing that one of the invests in the SE Indian Ocean will absorb the other in 108-120 hrs. As for the third invest north of the Equator (94B), models showing little development as it moves off to the west-northwest.
Current intensity estimated from Dvorak is 2.3 33 knots/999 mb based on 0.50 curve band arc

Morning; everyone!

Apparently a few tornadoes (two) hit the DC metro area last night. Minor to moderate damage by the looks of it. No reports of injuries although buildings have sustained EF0-1 damage.

ST CHARLES MD - EF0 TORNADO AS DETERMINED BY NWS SURVEY OF DAMAGE TO TOWNHOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS. (LWX)
1837

CHILLUM MD - EF1 TORNADO AS DETERMINED BY NWS SITE SURVEY WITH DAMAGE TO ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND CONSTRUCTION TRAILER BLOWN OVER. (LWX)

Today holds a non-zero chance for tornadoes. 5%...I know, but it's something. THe SPC is mentioning the risk of isolated supercells and a risk of isolated tornadic acitivty with any storm that develops over East Oklahoma and Western Missouri. Large/Very Large Hail is possible in the slight risk area.

Otherwise, the next possible tornado outbreak is Day 3 (Wednesday) which the SPC is watching closely for a "possible upgrade to higher end probabilities". Dew points and bulk shear will be more favorable then; with dew points across the current Day 3 slight risk area forecast to climb up to the 60's, and with bulk/directional shear and helicity forecast to be blowing at a height and direction favorable for supercells. GFS shows numerous supercells over W Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon...

Morning Folks........Just in and out this AM (Be back later) but in scanning the tropical atlantic water vapor loops this AM, it looks like there is plenty of shear across the MDR so I would not expect any untimely/unruly blobs to emerge this week (it is still only April folks)....However, the ITCZ is still very moist and active this morning as it has been for several weeks now............BBL
Morning,

Send some of that moisture up to Florida! Just sheer the top off a TC and let it pour.
We got great rain two weeks ago and none to speak of since.
I thought we were going to make up some of the water deficite here in a peaceful and incremental way.
Now we are locked into the 82-58 cycle with sun the whole week.
I'm sure something will change.
PS. welcome back Dr. Masters.

If anybody has a good sight on how big to size cisterns to collect TS rain and get throught Gulf droughts, pass it on to my blog please.
Thanks.
Arthur


Everyone's forgetting that 2008 Atlantic hurricane season didn't start until LATE LATE july.
1741. IKE
"""Retail gas has hit an all-time high of $3.503 a gallon on average nationwide, according to AAA's Web site. That's about 65 cents higher than a year ago.""".............


Imagine a storm..cat 3 or higher...in the GOM this summer.(rolls-eyes). 5-6 bucks a gallon? 7?
1742. JRRP
CMC is showing a possible INVEST near Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico
or I´m wrong??
1742. JRRP 2:21 PM GMT on Abril 21, 2008
CMC is showing a possible INVEST near Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico
or Im wrong??


I don't follow the models too much, but, based upon "visual" inspection right now it is very windy and dry down there, so, I don't buy it....CMC has been problematic (in terms of many false alarms) over the past two seasons.....(It does get it right sometimes but I think it it way off this time)...
Hey Storm
Hey storm, how are you doing?
1747. JRRP
ok thanks weatherman
90E??

CMC is showing a possible INVEST near Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico
or I'm wrong??


I would take it with a grain of salt; it IS the CMC, after all.

Upon closer inspection is does look like the latest CMC run tries to develop the low that was causing severe weather in Virginia and North Carolina yesterday. In fact, it develops it into a strong tropical storm (~992 mb). That's not going to happen obviously...no support from the other models, which do develop this but into a cold cored system.

Don't they call this model the "Can't Model Cyclones" or something like that around here?
1748. Tazmanian
90E??


Morning, TAZ.

Possibly...models try to spin something up there...on and off, though. GFS just dropped it.
ok
Good Morning TerraNova


out in tell later
1749. TerraNova 10:44 AM EDT on April 21, 2008
CMC is showing a possible INVEST near Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico
or I'm wrong??

Don't they call this model the "Can't Model Cyclones" or something like that around here?


Don't know about that, but, several of the regulars last season were accusing CMC of being "on crack" as it was over developing just about every blob out there.........
"Constantly Making Cyclones"

I've also seen "Can't Model Crap". Both seem equally fitting :)

What kind of data do they feed into that model? Sometimes I get the feeling that the Canadian mets didn't program it with the intention of predicting trends and genesis farther south...
"Crack Monster Cyclone".....A little wind that prevents you from lighting up.......LOL
Thanks, Storm.

As a (random) note; the four analog years that CSU (Colorado State) put out as analog years for the upcomming season are 1950, 1989, 1999, and 2000. Three of those four years had major hurricane landfalls on the US coastline.

1950 had Hurricane Easy impacting West Florida as a Cat 3.

1989 had Hurricane Hugo impacting South Carolina as a Category 4.

1999 had Hurricane Bret making landfall in Southern Texas, north of Brownsville as a Category 3 hurricane.

Presumably, Klotzbach and Gray picked these four years due to similar atmospheric conditions such as a La Nina, position of the B/A high, and wind shear, as well as SST's...

We select prior hurricane seasons since 1949 which have similar atmosphericoceanic
conditions to those currently being experienced. Analog years for 2008 were
selected primarily on how similar they are to conditions that are currently observed. We
searched for years that had La Nina conditions and above-average tropical Atlantic and
far North Atlantic sea surface temperatures during February-March.

There were four hurricane seasons since 1949 with characteristics most similar to
what we observed in February-March 2008. The best analog years that we could find for
the 2008 hurricane season were 1950, 1989, 1999, and 2000. We anticipate that 2008
seasonal hurricane activity will have activity in line with what was experienced in the
average of these four years. We believe that 2008 will have above-average activity in the
Atlantic basin.
1760. hydrus
STORM-W-I have a interesting question for you.In your coastal and offshore synopsis,you mentioned double barrel low pressure area.It seems in the 1970,s I would see and hear about these systems all the time.Now they happen much less often or don,t report them as much.Would you please give your knowledge on this subject since you were probrably in the weather field during those years.
1762. Patrap
GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Model Link



GOM 120 Hour Surface Current Forecast Model Link
1763. hydrus
Thank you Storm W.
ohhhhh WMW the first to say CMC and on crack.........we should keep track of how many ppl use that term to decribe the CMC lol
Technical Terms Simplified

I have compiled and simplified a list of technical terms that we will come across this hurricane season. This is a preview and i will be adding terms as time goes on at my blog.

Monsoon Trough: a convergence zone, like the ITCZ, that lies between the northeast trades and the monsoon southwesterlies.

Monsoon Southwesterlies: results when the southeast trades cross the equator and are deflected towards the northeast due to the Coriolis force.

African Easterly Wave: a synoptic feature that forms over Eastern Africa and moves westward as convective signatures.

Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT): an upper level trough that develops across the central Atlantic in the summer. It’s different from mid-latitude troughs in that it does extend into the lower atmosphere and it’s mainly quasi-stationary.

Inverted V signature: a cloud pattern displayed by tropical waves in the Tropical Atlantic that resembles an upside-V.

African Easterly Jet (AEJ): a easterly flowing jet found in the lower part of the atmosphere over Africa that is responsible for the development of tropical waves.

Barotropic Cyclone: where both the temperature and pressure fields increase or decrease towards the center. Example, tropical cyclones.

Baroclinic Cyclone: a cyclone forming within a baroclinic environment and having asymmetric characteristics. Example, extratropical cyclones.

Baroclinic Environment: an environment characterized by vertical wind shear and temperature gradients.

INVEST: an area of disturbed weather persisting for more than 24 hrs outside diurnal variations that has potential to develop and/or threaten land. Invests are assigned by the NHC rotating from 90 to 99. The suffix "L" is assigned to invest in the Atlantic and "E" for eastern Pacific. Example: 90L, 91L, 92L, 93L, 94L, 95L, 96L, 97L, 98L, 99L, 90L, 91L, 92L, and so on.

Diurnal Convective Maximum: the time of the day that instability and convection is highest. It occurs around mid-late afternoon over land and just before sunrise over water.

Diurnal Convective Minimum: the time of the day when instability and convection is the least. It occurs just before sunrise over land and just before sunset over water.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): is an eastward equatorial traveling pattern of anomalous rainfall and convection that is planetary in scale. When the MJO is positive, convection is enhanced and the likelihood tropical cyclone formation is increased.

Tradewind Inversion: an environment over the tropical Atlantic characterized by stable air in the mid-upper levels and stratocumulus or cumulus in the surface layer.

Saharan Air Layer (SAL): a layer of dust originating from West Africa that blows across the Tropical Atlantic.

The Azores High: an area of high pressure found the subtropical Atlantic. Depending its location it is sometimes called the Bermuda High.

Eye wall replacement cycle (EWRC): a process by which an outer eyewall forms, choking and breaking down the inner eyewall. Tropical cyclones often weaken during this process.

Heat of condensation: heat release when water vapor condenses into water droplets

Pressure level: a way of measuring altitude using pressure units.

Lower Level: that part of the atmoshphere between the surface and 600 hpa.

Mid-Level: that part of the atmophsere between 600 hpa and 400 hpa.

Upper Level: that part of the atmopshere above 400 hpa.
90W




TS 95S winds 30kt on the navy site with a T # 2.5 so i call it TS 95S

Thanks 456!
That is very handy and practical.
The CMC isn't even forecasting any kind of subtropical or tropical cyclone... the warm-core phase near the end doesn't mean anything in this sense (many extratropical cyclones will have a weak, shallow warm-core phase at some point, especially stronger ones):

Correction:

It’s different from mid-latitude troughs in that it does not extend into the lower atmosphere and it’s mainly quasi-stationary.

Ur well come Starwoman
The CMC isn't even forecasting any kind of subtropical or tropical cyclone... the warm-core phase near the end doesn't mean anything in this sense (many extratropical cyclones will have a weak, shallow warm-core phase at some point, especially stronger ones):

MicheaelSTL, we were talking about the old CMC run. This one just came out...although you are correct in saying that the new one now has it as extratropical.
1768. MichaelSTL 1:59 PM AST on April 21, 2008

Also notice the radius of maximum gale force winds is very large near the end of the cycle. Larger than that in tropical and subtropical cyclones.
1770. TerraNova 2:02 PM AST on April 21, 2008
The CMC isn't even forecasting any kind of subtropical or tropical cyclone... the warm-core phase near the end doesn't mean anything in this sense (many extratropical cyclones will have a weak, shallow warm-core phase at some point, especially stronger ones):

MicheaelSTL, we were talking about the old CMC run...


That is the one we should monitor for signs of development, just in case....
1773. beell
A half-hearted defense of the CMC:

IF the CMC develops something and IF that something develops, the CMC does a pretty good job with track. Y/N?

I don't have reams of data to back this up today. More of an opinion here. Did a pretty good job w/2007 TD 10 and also picked up on Humberto when it was a sfc trof S of FL. The track was pretty much right on after that. All the models missed the CONUS shortwave that turned it to the NE and allowed a little more sea-room before landfall.
1775. vortfix
Yes beell.
The CMC got Barry last year spot on also!
When it's right it is downright scary.
1776. Patrap
Its the consensus one should looks for.Some models do better in certain Phases of Genesis than others.

Kinda like only looking at Redheads in a Mall.
One must observe all the colors on the Dynamical Runs.
And see the outliers and inlier's.

All are relevant.
1777. vortfix
Right Pat.
I Like to observe blondes and brunettes as well as redheads.
1778. Patrap
Types of hurricane forecasting models
The best hurricane forecasting models we have are "global" models, that solve the mathematical equations governing the behavior of the atmosphere at every point on the globe. Models that solve these equations are called "dynamical" models. The four best hurricane forecast models--GFDL, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS--are all global dynamical models. These models take several hours to run on the world's most advanced supercomputers. There are also dynamical models that cover just a portion of the globe. These are less useful, unless the hurricane happens to start out inside the domain the model covers and stay there. Hurricanes moving from outside the model domain into the model domain are not well handled. An example of this kind of model is the NAM model covering North America and the surrounding waters, run by the National Weather Service (NWS). Another type of hurricane model is a statistical model. These models do not try to solve mathematical equations on a grid. The advantage of these statistical models is that they are fast to run and can provide output in a few minutes. There are also hybrid statistical/dynamical models, and simple trajectory models.



Computer models used to forecast hurricanes Link
1779. Patrap
Reow!,..vort. LOL
1780. Patrap

1. Global & Regional Weather Prediction Charts (WXMAP) Link

2.Global & Regional Ocean Wave Prediction Charts (WW3)Link
the first will come from behind