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2007 Hurricane Season Forecast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:50 PM GMT on December 08, 2006

It's going to be a more active than usual Atlantic hurricane season in 2007, but not hyperactive, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued by Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University today. The Gray/Klotzbach team is calling for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The forecast calls for an above normal chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is normal) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average).

The forecasters predict that the current moderate El Nino event will dissipate by the time the active part of the 2007 hurricane season rolls around. The sudden development of El Nino this year significantly reduced the hurricane activity, and dissipation of this El Nino by August of 2007 would likely create more favorable conditions for hurricane development than in 2006. Gray and Klotzbach support this forecast by examining the active hurricane periods of 1950-1969, and 1995-2005, and note that seven out of the eight seasons following El Nino years during this period were active Atlantic hurricane seasons, and all of these years witnessed either neutral or La Nina conditions.

The forecasters examined the observed atmospheric conditions and ocean temperatures in October-November 2006, and came up with a list of four past years that had a similar combination of a moderate El Nino event, warmer than average tropical Atlantic SSTs, and a weaker-than-normal Azores-Bermuda High. We can expect 2007 to be similar to the average of these four analogue years, they say. The four years were 2003 (16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes), 1966 (11, 7, and 3 of the same), 1958 (10, 7 and 5), and 1952 (7, 6 and 3). Hurricane Isabel of 2003 (Category 2) was the strongest hurricane to hit the U.S. in these four analogue years, and Category 4 Hurricane Inez of 1966 caused the most death and destruction, killing over 1000 people in its rampage through the Caribbean.

2007 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
It's going to be a bit rougher year than the Gray/Klotzbach team is forecasting, according to the British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), who issued their 2007 Atlantic hurricane season forecast yesterday. TSR is calling for a season with 60% above normal activity--16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. They project that five named storms will hit the U.S., with two of these being hurricanes. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects two named storms, one of them being a hurricane. TSR cites two main factors for their forecast of an active season: above normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are expected in August-September 2007 across the tropical Atlantic, as well as slower than normal trade winds. Trade winds are forecast to be 0.7 meters per second (about 1.5 mph) slower than average, which would create greater spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to heat up due to reduced evaporational cooling. SSTs are forecast to be about 0.34 degrees C above normal. TSR gives an 80% chance that the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will rank in the top third of active seasons observed since 1957.


Figure 1. Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (colored squares) and TSR (colored lines). The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

How good are these December hurricane season forecasts? Unfortunately, they're pretty much worthless. The skill of the December forecasts issued by Dr. Gray and TSR (Figure 1) have averaged near zero since 1992. Not surprisingly, the forecasts get better the closer they get to hurricane season. The June and August forecasts show some modest skill, and are valuable tools for insurance companies and emergency planners to help estimate their risks. The problem with the December forecasts is that the current statistical computer models used to forecast El Nino are not skillful beyond about six months. For example, none of these models foresaw the current El Nino event that began in September--until April. Until we can forecast the evolution of El Nino more than six months in advance, these December forecasts are not worth paying much attention to. I think it's important for these groups to keep trying, though.

I'll be back Monday with a new blog. Tune into the blog of Mike Theiss this weekend, he'll be covering the launch of the Space Shuttle. Mike is a top notch storm chaser and weather photographer we're excited to have on our wunderblogging team!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the analysis Dr. Masters :) I did not know that the December forecast was pretty worthless--I thought it had (some) value. Interesting......
Aloha from Jamaica mate!
Heh... You know, this forecast is worth just about a much as a hill of beans. Last year's forecast was waaaaaaaaay off due to "uncalculated circumstances", and in all actually we cannot predict weather any better than a corn on Joe Bob's foot can predict it. The fact that there predictions carry no weight upon their jobs is just further proof that its all just for show at this point.

We don't really have a clue until we are within a week of the times predicted, and even then its only a week ahead of time that we can give plausible predictions. Just look at Katrina; our predictions of its intensity was way off even within 24 hours... Hence, these "outlooks" are just hoggwash and serve no real purpose.
Talk about kicking someone when thier down. I would hate to see THIS on my doorstep after last week.
Navy has Utor @ 60kts, approaching Typhoon status.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006560777,00.html Link the tornado did hit my house im ok if a little batterd
DAZ~ An F4..that's really rare for your area, well maybe not this year. Glad your okay, how did your home fair?
I am so sorry to see once again that the Philippines is going to have another cyclone to contend with. My prayers are with them all.

Thank you all for the good work in keeping us informed.
The London tornado was not actually an F4; they use a different scale, the Torro Scale, which has eleven divisions (T0 to T10) instead of six (F0 to F5). A T4 tornado would be on the lower end of F2 on the Fujita Scale.
Severe Tropical Storm Seniang (Utor)
maximum sustained winds of 110 kph with gusts of 140 kph

Warning Signal

The follow area is under a Signal Warning #3 (100-185 kph)

Visayas region
----------------
Eastern Samar


The following area is under a Signal Warning #2 (60- 100 kph)

Visayas region
-----------------
Rest of Samar
Biliran Island
Leyte Provinces

Mindanao Region
------------------
Dinagat Island
Siargao Island

The following areas are under a Signal Warning #1 (30 - 60 kph)

Visayas region
-----------------
Bohol
Cebu
Negros Provinces
Guimaras Island
Iloilo
Capiz
Antique
Aklan
Siquijor Island

Mindanao region
------------------
Surigao del Norte
Camiguin Island

Luzon Region
-----------------
Catanduanes
Albay
Sorsogon
Masbate
Romblon
Burias Island

Residents in areas under Public Storm Warning Signals # 2 and # 1 are alerted against flashfloods and landslides. While those residing in coastal areas under Public Storm Warning Signals # 3 are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surges or big waves.
Good Research!!!:-)
The CMC indicates a lot more trouble (#29 is Utor and #33 is now invest 94W)...
Utor and 94W (on the far right):

We had our first freeze of the season this morning, with 31.6 @ my house. Forecast is for 30 tonight, but I wonder if it will be a bust if winds calm down tonight, dewpoint is now 15.


What is the strongest tornado that has happened in the UK? I know that in 1967 there was a tornado later analyzed as an F5 in Palluel, France, not far from Belgium. Google is not helpful, because the UK Air Force has an aircraft called the "Tornado F-3" which swamps everything.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_midlands/4727107.stm
Utor is looking impressive--not good.
The strongest tornado in the U.K. was rated as a T8 (from my link on the Torro Scale).
do you have a link Michael?
Ah I found this :) http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/research/whirlextreme.php
94W on the left and another suspect area right behind, IMO looking a little more suspect than 94W.
Hey all and good evening.

Are there any radar loops that show a whole week of action in the Pacific Basin?

And how is El Nino doing in the last 1-2 weeks? Strengthening? Weakening? Forcasts?

Thanks and have a good weeking all

Lots of good football

GIANTS IN 07
Is there a strong chance for Utor to rapidly intensify within the next 24 hrs as we have seen with the others lately?
CPC El Nino update (December 7th):

Synopsis: El Nio conditions are likely to continue through May 2007. Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies greater than +1C were observed in most of the equatorial Pacific between 170E and the South American coast (Fig. 1). The latest SST departures in the Nio regions are between 1.1C and 1.3C, except for Nio 1+2 (Fig. 2). The increase in SST anomalies during the last several months has been accompanied by weaker-than-average low-level equatorial easterly winds across most of the equatorial Pacific and negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with the early stages of El Nio in the tropical Pacific.

More (the full update is in PDF/PowerPoint format, which is also updated weekly).
I think that it is too late for any rapid intensification; Utor is almost over land (in between the 18z and 06z forecast point).
Intensification up to 80kts is in the forcast once Utor moves into the south china sea.For now some weaking will take place due to land interaction.
JMA says thst Utor is a typhoon (10 minute average; multiply by 1.14 to get 1 minute average):

ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 10.8N 126.6E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
I updated my blog. Who ever wants something easy and interesting to read should come and check it out.
Date : 09 DEC 2006 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 10:56:34 N Lon : 126:00:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 993.6mb/ 57.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.0mb

Center Temp : -73.3C Cloud Region Temp : -76.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


MichaelSTL~ Thanks for that on the tornados. I'd forgotten about the differedt scale. Did you see the damage? Tore through some block.
Looking at MIMIC landfall will be soon.
Skye...so where are we exactly on strength with Utor? I have 65kts.
Hi, I just joined and posted my forecast for 2007 (which I made lastnight) in my blog.Please go see and comment.Thanks!
By the way,does anyone have any information on the HWRF, which will replace the GFDL next year? Thanks
Typhoon "SENIANG" is about to make landfall over Guiuan, Eastern Samar by noon today.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 50 kms east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar

Coordinates: 10.9N, 126.2E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to to 150 kph

Movement: west northwest at 22 kph

Forecast Positions / Outlook: Saturday afternoon:
expected to cross Leyte
Saturday evening:
in the vicinity of Bantayan Island, Northern Cebu
Sunday morning:
140 kms west of Roxas City
Monday morning:
300 kms west northwest of Coron, Palawan
Tuesday morning:
over South China Sea

The HWRF can be viewed here (the last run was for Helene; it looks like they were testing it this year). I assume that next year it will be included on this page instead of the GFDL.
Thanks
Randrewl ~ concure on the 65kts. Wanna stay up for landfall but I'm gonna sleep.

Kris~ I ran across some info on it a few weeks ago, I'll look tommarrow if i get a chance.

Oh good MichaelSTL got it.
Landfall is right now Skye.
Sorry, I haven't researched any webcams for us.
Thanks Skye
I wonder how much better than the GFDL it will be; the resolution of 4 km/2.5 miles is a lot better than the GFDL, although still not perfect (for example, Wilma's eye was only 2 miles wide at one point, less than the resolution; it was probably totally unrecognizable in the GFDL).
It did good, but not great
Link
Click on a year below for more reports like that.Link
good night
15,000 evacuated in Albay for fear of Seniang rains


By Jason Gutierrez
Agence France-Presse
Last updated 12:05pm (Mla time) 12/09/2006


LEGAZPI, Albay -- Thousands of people living around Mayon volcano in Albay province were evacuated Saturday amid fears that rains brought by typhoon Seniang (international codename: Utor) could trigger fresh mudslides, officials said.

Although Seniang is forecast to hit the Visayas, portions of the Bicol region, which includes Albay, is expected to be affected, especially by heavy rains.

Last week, typhoon Reming (international codename: Durian) brought heavy rains and strong winds to Bicol, triggering avalanches of volcanic debris from the slopes of Mayon and burying entire villages, leaving over 1,200 people dead or missing.

Tens of thousands remain homeless and are living in crowded evacuation camps in the area, while others have returned to a moonscape of rock and debris where their villages once stood to retrieve belongings from the mud.

"We have evacuated some 15,000 people from 12 barangays [villages]. These are the very vulnerable places because of the strong rains caused by the new typhoon," Albay Governor Fernando Gonzales told Agence France-Presse.

"We don't want to take any more chances," he said, adding that those evacuated were being taken to temporary "holding areas" where their respective mayors could supervise a quick emergency escape in case of fresh mudflows.

In nearby Daraga town, at the foot of Mayon, people were being boarded onto trucks to be moved out.

"These villages are already surrounded by water and in case of flashfloods they will have no place to go. So we are putting them in a holding area and after the storm they will be returned to their houses," said Daraga Mayor Gerry Jaucian.

He said there was a greater danger of flashfloods because the nearby river was already silted up from deposits washed down by the last typhoon.

The mayor warned that "there are still a lot of deposits on Mayon volcano" which could again form deadly mudslides if another typhoon hit.

"We are praying that the unexpected does not happen again," he said.

Seniang intensified into a typhoon as it neared the central Philippines and was expected to slam into Samar Island by noon of Friday.

The typhoon caused the postponement of the summits of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and East Asian leaders that were scheduled to be held in Cebu next week.



Govt aid to typhoon victims not enough

First posted 12:02:08 (Mla time) 2006-12-09
Ramon Tulfo
Inquirer





THE devastation wrought by Supertyphoon Reming on Bicol is unbelievable.

I saw the destruction everywhere in Legazpi City and nearby places: toppled electric posts, felled trees, flattened houses, blown-off rooftops, and a creek turned into a sea of mud and sand.

Some people I met in the streets were walking like zombies, their eyes wide open in shock.

It seemed like a mini atomic bomb exploded in the middle of the affected areas.

And yet, I saw little government presence in the devastated areas in the form of assistance to typhoon victims.

As my secretary, Janet Bandoy and I were buying sacks of NFA rice at the Legazpi City public market late Wednesday afternoon that we would distribute to the victms in Barangay Banag, Daraga, Albay, a man mistook us for government people.

He angrily told us in the Bicol dialect: You should have stocked up on rice before the tragedy. Why do you buy rice now and distribute it to the victims?

Janet and I arrived at the Legazpi City airport from Villamor Air Base late afternoon Wednesday aboard an Air Force C-130 cargo plane. We had with us canned goods, clothes and medicines that I had solicited from friends in Manila. From the airport we went to the public market to buy rice, candles and matches for the Daraga flood victims.

Janet is from Barangay Banag. Her house, along with those of her neighbors and relatives, were swept away by floodwaters. Several of her relatives were either killed or are missing.

Many private individuals and civic groups have gone to Bicol to distribute foodstuff and medicines, among them Lilia Baby Pineda, former mayor of Lubao, Pampanga. Some countries have sent relief goods.

But the relief assistance is just not enough. There should be massive relief assistance to the typhoon victims. As of now, all the aid is just a trickle, compared to the destruction wrought by Reming.

Air Force chief Lt. Gen. Jose L. Reyes, who saw the destruction aboard a C-130 aircraft, told me there ought to be a mass post-traumatic therapy for the Reming victims.

But how is that possible when the government cant even give material aid to the Bicol victims?

If President Macapagal-Arroyo, who visited Legazpi Tuesday, thinks that her presence eased the suffering of the victims she should think again.

We havent seen government aid. Why should we be happy over her presence here on Tuesday? said one victim.

I don't know how much stock I would put into the models but, they are all indicating some sort of development next week in the NWCARIB at the base of the trough currently in place. NOGAPS and the CMC are the most aggressive.
the season is over. nothing is going to develop now. Look at the last invest, computer indicated development and the upper level winds just tore it apart. Just look forward to next season.
More than likely! Just interesting is all.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_114l.gif 12z GFS has something near Panama in 114h.
It also has a coastal storm in 138h.
href=http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_138l.gif>
Link Heat potential near Panama kind of low, though.
Utor is strengthening over land!!!

WWPN20 KNES 091525
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT IRNIGHT WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
DECEMBER 09 2006 1433Z
.
11.9N 123.1E T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS UTOR(25W)
.
PAST POSITIONS...11.3N 126.0E 09/0233Z VIS/IRDAY
11.2N 128.5E 08/1433Z IRNIGHT

.
REMARKS...DESPITE JUST RECENTLY MOVING OFF SAMAR AND
MASBATE...1351Z AMSU DATA AND CURRENT IR SHOW A CLOUD FILLED EYE
FEATURE WITH THE CENTER OVER THE SIBUYAN SEA. HOWEVER, THIS
METHOD LEADS TO UNREALISTIC DT SO WILL USE THE CENTER EMBEDDED BY
WHITE FOR A DT=5.0 WHICH AGREES WITH MET AND A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN PT. WILL MAKE FT=5.0 AT THIS FIX.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 09/2200Z.

That would mean 90 kts/105 mph (Cat 2).
As for the forecast storm in the Caribbean moving across Florida, it looks like a nor'easter:



Any tropical characteristics are quickly lost as it becomes extratropical (maybe fueled by a tropical disturbance where the environment is too hostile for development).
Concerning Utor, as they said in their previous discussion, even though it is over land, outflow is excellent.They're counterbalancing one another.
That storm in the phase diagram looks interesting, pretty low pressure for non-tropical.
Michael - What model is that?
No-Gap model
Okay, thanks
Thanks Dr. M though I'm not quite ready to begin thinking about next years H season. Very thankful at this point that the 2006 season was quiet for us. Hope to be back in our house by Christmas and not think about hurricanes for a few months.
The NOGAP is the Navy model.It's a global model.
Now what is this?????????

Link
And this??????

Link
Center of Utor is not really over land right now. That's why you might be seeing some strengthening.

UPDATE) TYPHOON 'Seniang' (international code name: Utor) is expected to over the resort island of Boracay by Sunday morning, the state weather bureau said in its latest bulletin.

Forecasters warned there could be storm surges or big waves that could hit the island.

As of 10 p.m., the eye of Seniang was located 110 kilometers east northeast of Roxas City, according to the bulletin issued the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration.

The storm is currently traversing the Visayan Sea and headed towards the Aklan-Romblon area, the bulletin added.

Earlier, Seniang, packing sustained winds of 120 kph, made landfall in Guiuan town in the Eastern Samar province at noon Saturday.

It pounded Tacloban city in nearby Leyte province with gusts of up to 150 kph (94 mph) four hours later and was moving west-northwest at 22 kph (14 mph). It was expected to hit the northern tip of the Cebu province late Saturday.

Disaster officials said they had no immediate reports on the effects of the typhoon on Samar and Leyte islands.

The Coast Guard halted 43 ferry services in the areas affected by the typhoon, stranding more than 2,000 passengers.

The new typhoon's path is just south of the eastern Bicol region where more than 1,000 people were killed or missing when it was battered by super typhoon Reming (international code name: Durian) last week.

Fernando Gonzales, governor of the worst-hit province of Albay, said about 15,000 people from about a dozen villages, including many that were wiped out by volcanic mudslides triggered by a record rainfall, were ordered evacuated to temporary shelters in government buildings, schools and churches where they will stay until the storm passes.

"What we are trying to avoid here is people getting trapped," he said.

Gonzales said jittery residents were more cooperative now with local government officials who have ordered the evacuation and many have moved out on their own.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council in Manila said more than 100,000 people already are evacuation centers following last week's typhoon.




I updated my blog everyone!
What type of precip could this storm bring and what day for the Northeast.
Looks like mostly rain for the Northeast.It simply won't be cold enough in enough places for widespread snowfall.
Looks like mostly rain, it will be mostly to warm for snow.
And on the 15th
Thanks I just saw the GFS model run. It does show a great big reload of cold air infiltrating the country in that timeframe before Chirstmas.
Utor has good rainbamds at least.
Utor has an eye, best seen on Funktop:

Check out the AMSRE rain image at the NRL site.
Nice southern eyewall.
Discovery is poised for a Launch tonight at 8:47pm estLink.Heres the Launch Blog now..
75 kts, 967 mb:



SSD says 90 kts (T5.0)...
Saturday night's alright for flighting...
Quickscat
Visible Sat
/2033 UTC 12.1N 122.0E T6.0/6.0 UTOR


wow and i mean wow it now has a T # of 6.0
I updated my blog everyone!
T6.0 is a Cat 4... I fear a repeat of Durian for sure now... also:

WWPN20 KNES 092120
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRDAY WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
DECEMBER 09 2006 2033Z
.
12.1N 122.0E T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS UTOR (25W)
.
PAST POSITIONS...11.5N 124.8E 09/0833Z IRNIGHT
11.1N 127.0E 08/2033Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TABLAS ISLAND IN THE SIBUYAN
SEA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST AND NO DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. LG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY CMG FOR A DT=6.5. MET
AND PT ARE AT 6.0 WHICH WILL BE THE FT FOR THIS FIX.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 10/0400Z.

A T# of 6.5 is 127 kts (kept at 6.0 due to other factors).
Trivia:
What two Hurricanes in the U.S. have the closest recorded landfall points?
Hint:They made landfall less than a month apart.
A: Francis & Jeanne - on my roof!
Discovery night launch October 11,2000
Yes,I'll be posting a recap of Frances in the next few hours, if not sooner.I nmy blog.
Frances, Jeanne...right over my house.
Looks like another powerful typhoon is in the making with Utor...NRL has winds with Utor at 75kts right now and due to favorable conditions it looks like we will have a cat3 in the next day or two.

INFRARED VIEW of typhoon Utor showing an impressive CDO developing.
Sunset Here...50F Link
I seriously doubt NRL... SSD says that it between 115 (T6.0) and 127 kts (T6.5) and it looks it too, with a clear eye embedded in symmetrical deep convection, as if it is over open ocean, not half over land:

Very impressive CDO on Infrared...


The event is Occuring over the Phillipines poor..again.
Can anyone find a webcam south of this one in Manila?Link..its Morning there now....
Heres another one but I dont Know the Location in the Phillipines..it refreshes every 15secs and is raining here..Link
Models take Utor west then NW to NNW.
Unbelievable. A fifth storm doing this.
A little closer to home it should be interesting to see this evenings windscatt. Seems to be a low developing in the NW Carrib.
I have updated my blog everyone.
are all the models indicating development in that general area?
Seniang remains on course, hits Romblon, Boracay



INQ7.net
Last updated 07:26am (Mla time) 12/10/2006


(2ND UPDATE) Typhoon Seniang (international name: Utor) passed through the vicinity of Romblon and the resort island of Boracay early Sunday morning with 120 kilometer per hour winds en route to southern Mindoro in the afternoon.

In its 5 a.m. bulletin on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration plotted the center of the typhoon 50 kms south of Romblon or 140 kms east southeast of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro.

Seniang remained on its west-northwest course at 17 kph, moving towards southern Mindoro and Calamian Group of Islands.

Public storm signal no. 3 remained hoisted over Romblon, Southern Mindoro, Capiz, Aklan, Northern Antique, and the Calamian Group of Islands. These areas will experience winds ranging from 100-185 kph.

Storm warnings in Masbate and Iloilo have been lowered to signal no. 2. Also under Signal No. 2 are Marinduque, Burias Island, Cuyo Island, the rest of Antique and Mindoro, where winds ranging from 60-100 kph are expected.

The regions of Albay, Sorsogon Cebu, Biliran, Negros, Samar and Leyte were now under signal no. 1. The rest of the areas under this storm warning, with anticipated winds of 30-60 kph, include Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Southern Quezon, Batangas, Lubang Island, Northern Palawan, and Guimaras.
Seems to be a low developing in the NW Carrib.

There could be a window of reduced shear, & the GFS seems to like it a little, but all this cold air headed south over my house agrees with the TPC Discussion: "THE FRONT OR MORE LIKELY
REMNANT TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS".
whats the navy site?
This site is also useful - they say that it is a Cat 4 (T6.0; refer to the Dvorak chart in the link at the bottom).
hmm whats the latest windscatt of the Carribean?
Nowhere else am I seeing that kind of intensity for Utor. The most I see is 75 kts.
I guess it is because the JTWC is so slow in updating the intensity; it certainly looked much stronger than 75 kts (nice eye and round symmetrical CDO, like what you might see in a strong storm). It has since been disrupted by landfall, so that is probably why it has not been upgraded (damn... I hope that people in the Philippines were following the "raw" intensity data).
CIMSS is worthless because it has only recently recognized the eye (somebody better tell them to make the program perform an analysis of the storm to find the center instead of using the interpolated forecast, which misses the eye most of the time unless the storm moves exactly as forecast). Even then, the raw T# is 6.1; if it had been working properly, the current intensity number would have been much higher:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.0mb/ 63.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 4.3 6.1

History - note the use of the interpolated forecast during the entire period; it should use spiral analysis to find the exact center when it gets stronger than a moderate TS.
I agree with you Michael. It's very difficult to get the information and any kind of consensus when it seems everyone took the weekend off!
Hmmmmm...where's the eye? I can't find it!!!

utor
Utor, for the time being, has been disrupted by land; the next concern is what it will do after it leaves the Philippines:

2156z:


2330z:
Utor smacked into a hefty island recently.
Storms in the Atlantic and Pacific???? I don't think so.
????????
The JMA says 80 knots (10 minute average), which is a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3:

T0622 (UTOR)
Issued at 00:00 UTC 10 Dec 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0622 UTOR (0622)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 12.2N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH

philliesrock, that MM5 run is from October.
Oops sorry everybody. My bad.
anyone have a pic or link for the latest windscatt of the Carribean?
I think Utor is going under rapid intensifcation as winds are now up to 100kts...
MM5 was put to rest way back in october till next season.
cyclonebuster once Utor moves into the south china sea steady strengthing looks very likely to me.
100kt winds now on Utor...


QUICKSCATT LINK

Nothing showing!
SSD intensity bulletin: Cat 4

WWPN20 KNES 092120
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRDAY WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
DECEMBER 09 2006 2033Z
.
12.1N 122.0E T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS UTOR (25W)
.
PAST POSITIONS...11.5N 124.8E 09/0833Z IRNIGHT
11.1N 127.0E 08/2033Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TABLAS ISLAND IN THE SIBUYAN
SEA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST AND NO DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. LG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY CMG FOR A DT=6.5. MET
AND PT ARE AT 6.0 WHICH WILL BE THE FT FOR THIS FIX.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 10/0400Z.

T6.0 = 115 kts
T6.5 = 127 kts

CIMSS (it is now working properly, using spiral anallysis intead of forecast points; the
numbers besides raw T# are not respresentive of the actual intensity because of this):

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 987.6mb/ 65.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.0 4.4 6.2
Discovery Launches on time....
Clear sky - great view!
Utor's winds are up to 115 mph and is now expected to reach CAT5 intensity in the next day or two.
See while I was out Utor went right from a cat 1 to 3. See Randrewl I can be wrong..lol.
I called 1 & 2 across the Philippines... This isn't good at all though, I'm sure the west side was expecting
less of a storm, not this.


The launch was beautiful.
Utor's looking good tonight.

18z GFS has a storm forming of the Bahamas

18z GFS
incredible that PAGASA didn't raise the sustained winds to 150 kph (80 knots) or higher

they maintained the sustained winds at 120 kph which is about 65 knots O_0'

Forecast discussions for Andrew
Link
Does a hurricane under a lot of wind shear create more tornados than one under little wind shear?
Hurricanes ,Tornadoes..and Wind Shear...Link
NDCC MEDIA UPDATE
re Typhoon Seniang (Utor)
Releasing Officer:
GLENN J RABONZA
Administrator, OCD and
Executive Officer, NDCC
DATE: 10 December 2006 as of 12:00 NN
1. WEATHER UPDATE
Typhoon Seniang is now over the Southern tip of Oriental Mindoro and heading
towards the Calamian Group of Islands. At 10:00 AM today, the eye of Typhoon
Seniang was located based on satellite and surface data at 50 kms East of San Jose,
Occidental Mindoro (12.4N, 121.4E) with maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near
the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph moving west northwest at 17 kph.
It is expected to pass close to Coron, Palawan early tonight. By tomorrow morning it will
be at 250 kms Northwest of Coron, Palawan and will be over the South China Sea by
Tuesday morning.
PSWS #3 - Southern Occidental Mindoro, Southern Oriental Mindoro,
and Calamian Group of Island
PSWS #2 - Rest of Mindoro, Lubang Island, Romblon, Aklan, Antique and Cuyo
Island
PSWS #1 - Masbate, Sorsogon, Albay, Burias Island, Camarines Norte and Sur,
Marinduque, Batangas, Southern Quezon, Laguna, Cavite, Bataan,
Metro Manila, Iloilo, Guimaras, Capiz and Northern Palawan
Public Storm Warning signals elsewhere are now lowered.
2. EARLY WARNING
Residents in areas under Public Storm Warning Signals 3, 2, and 1 are alerted against
flashfloods, landslides and possible storm surges or big waves.
PDCCs with areas near active volcanoes (Bulusan, Kanlaon, Pinatubo, Mayon, Hibok-
Hibok and other active volcanoes) are advised to be prepared for flashfloods and
sediment laden flows like lahars/mudflows.
Those residing in coastal areas under PSWS No 3 are advised to seek higher grounds
due to possible storm surges and big waves.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take
appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5:00PM today.
3. EFFECTS
Casualties
Dead (2)
one (1) in Bgy. Bagacay Tacloban City and one from Panay, Capiz identified as
Angeline Besana, 1 y/o, F (house was toppled by a tree)
2
Injured (3)
One (1 in Tanauan, Leyte (hit by fallen tree) , one (1) in Tacloban City and one in
Panay, Capiz identified as Ednalyn Besana, 29 y/o, F (house was toppled by a tree)
Missing (3)
Three (3) missing in Roxas City due to drowning namely Paquito Recto, Dolly Adrenosin
and Jonard Adrenosin
Affected /Evacuated (Tab A)
A total of 17,683 families or 91,121 persons in Regions IV-B, V, VII and VIII were
affected while 17,525 families or 90,295 persons were evacuated in 59 evacuation
centers
Stranded Passengers and Transportation (Tab B)
A total of 8,983 passengers, 97 buses, 126 trucks, 119 light Cars/Vehicles, 103
vessels/motor bancas and 260 rolling cargoes are stranded in various ports of Regions
IV-B, V, VII and VIII
Damaged Properties
Region VII
Two (2) and one (1) elementary classrooms were totally and partially damaged in Bgy
Tarong
Five (5) houses along the coastline were totally damaged due to big waves, however,
families were safely evacuated prior to the incident
Ten (10) houses and one house were partially and totally damaged in the Municipality of
Tudela
Status of Lifelines
Power
Region IV-B
No power in the whole province of Marinduque
Region VI
Power blockout in Pilar and Roxas City, Capiz due to tripping of TRANSCO lines
Region VII
Only Batayan Island is without power
Region VIII
Region wide power black-out except the province of Southern Leyte
Power will be restored within the week
Communication
Region VII
Cellular phone signals in the northern part of Cebu are back to normal since this
morning
ILOILO CITY -- (9TH UPDATE) Typhoon Seniang (international codename: Utor) left five persons dead in the Visayas as the typhoon entered Panay Island Sunday, downing power lines along its path that left the provinces of Capiz and Aklan, including the resort island of Boracay, without electricity.

A four-year-old girl died in Tacloban City while four others in Capiz were killed as Seniang whipped the island. Six others in Capiz and Bantayan Island in Cebu were injured.

The typhoon also forced thousands to flee flooded and damaged homes and left the prospect of a bleak Christmas for many residents of Leyte, Samar, Bantayan Island in Cebu, Panay and Boracay Island.
The islands of Samar, Leyte, Biliran and Bantayan were still without electricity until Sunday. Seniang destroyed infrastructure, homes and electric facilities as it exited Eastern Visayas Saturday night and headed for Bantayan and Boracay off Panay Island by Sunday morning.

The NDCC also said power was out in the whole province of Marinduque

Seniang made its landfall near Guiuan, Eastern Samar around noon Saturday and moved toward the northern part of Tacloban City, southern part of Samar and into Biliran Island in the afternoon, before moving to Bantayan in Cebu late in the evening.

The latest advisory of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) late Sunday afternoon said the storm had maintained its strength of 120-kilometer per hour (kph) winds with gusts of up to 150 kph, after crossing Occidental Mindoro and was in the vicinity of the Calamian group of islands.

It is forecast to be on its way out of the country, 390 kilometers northwest of Coron, Palawan, on Monday afternoon and well over the South China Sea the next day.

At the height of the typhoon on Saturday afternoon, the gustiness of the wind reached 136 kph, according to PAGASA in Tacloban.

Three persons were also believed to be trapped inside a small inter-island ferry that capsized due to strong winds at the Culasi port in Roxas City, according to the local Coast Guard, which was undertaking search operations.

In Boracay Island, strong winds whipped by Seniang toppled electric posts, coconut trees and damaged houses and resorts.

Police Officer 2 Jose Rupe Pangonon of the Boracay Special Tourist Police Office said electricity had been down since 9 p.m. Saturday and most resorts that were teeming with tourists for the holiday season were powered by generators.


PAGASA agrees with you Skye.

Guess we'll have to wait for reports to come out of the affected areas before we'll truly know how strong Seniang was. Nobody seems to agree on what took place.
I'll know when I see the damage.