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2007: Fifth warmest year on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:47 PM GMT on January 17, 2008

The data is in, and 2007 finished as the 5th warmest year on record for the globe, according to figures released by the National Climatic Data Center. For land areas only, 2007 ranked as the warmest year on record. For the oceans, 2007 was the ninth warmest year on record. La Niña continued to strengthen at the end of the year, creating ocean surface temperatures in large areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific more than -3°F (-1.7°C) below average. The rapid decay of the El Niño event that rang in 2007 and subsequent development of a moderate La Niña event caused the failure of the forecast issued by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office on January 4 of 2007, predicting a a 60% chance that 2007 would be the warmest year on record. The forecasters cited the combined influence of the continuing global warming trend, and the presence of a moderate El Niño event.


Figure 1. Global temperatures (land plus ocean) for 1880-2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

The warmest years on record globally were 2005 and 1998, when the global average temperatures were 1.08°F and 1.04°F higher than the long-term average of 57°F. The 2007 temperature was .99°F above average. Seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001, part of a rise in temperatures of more than 1°F (0.6°C) since 1900. Within the past three decades, the rate of warming in global temperatures has been approximately three times greater than the century scale trend. All ten of the top ten warmest years for the globe have occurred since 1995. The global temperature record goes back to 1880.

Tenth warmest year on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., 2007 was the tenth warmest year on record. U.S. weather records go back to 1895. Six of the 10 warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S. have occurred since 1998, part of a three decade period in which mean temperatures for the contiguous U.S. have risen at a rate near 0.6°F per decade.


Figure 2. U.S. temperatures for 1895-2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Arctic sea ice remains near record low levels
December 2007 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the second lowest on record for the month of December, 13% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. December was the second straight month that a new monthly minimum Arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set. However, the December 2007 sea ice extent was very close to the record low extent set in 2006, and the ice is much thinner than it was in 2006. This will likely cause a very early melting season and a probable return to record lows by April.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hmmmmm, Thanx for the update Doc!!
Snow in Saudia Arabia and Iraq. Looks strange in the desert.
From Birmingham,AL weather office....

"12z NAM model indicating a significant winter weather event across
central Alabama late Friday night and Saturday. 12z GFS also
showing winter weather across area but with much lesser amounts.
Confidence is increasing for the possibility of winter
precipitation...and afternoon forecast package will bear this
out."
. IKE 8:42 PM GMT on January 17, 2008
From Birmingham,AL weather office....

"12z NAM model indicating a significant winter weather event across
central Alabama late Friday night and Saturday. 12z GFS also
showing winter weather across area but with much lesser amounts.
Confidence is increasing for the possibility of winter
precipitation...and afternoon forecast package will bear this
out."


Yea the 18z NAM shows that as well. A 500mb trough will move down from Canada advecting cooler air to the region. The 5400 thickness line and 850mb temperatures below zero degrees do appear to support snow fall. The next area of low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico and the cold air at the surface and aloft would make for a wintry event.

Heres the NAM Sim reflectivity which reveals moderate snow fall.

Breaking News from the NWS

...Central Region Web Servers Down...
Ice has damaged a cooling compressor fan at the Central Region data center, resulting in several major systems overheating. Temporary backup pages have been implemented for much of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Upper Mississippi Valley. We apologize for the inconvenience and are working to restore full services quickly as possible.

-----------

This would be the reason for not being able to view certain products at this time, such as area forecast discussions...
Seems like the convection associated with the frontal system has begun to die over the GOM. Maybe it will strengthen overnight, but it looks rather weak and unimpressive compared to just four hours ago. Looks like it lost the energy needed to keep going. Its a shame that this couldn't hold together and come over South Florida where Lake Okeechobee could use all the rain it could get. Who knows? Maybe it will come back and move over us.
500mb analysis for the Southeast snow event.

aww dang-blast it sully...you posted it before I could, I was just gonna post that.
9. cchsweatherman 4:27 PM EST
Seems like the convection associated with the frontal system has begun to die over the GOM...

Play this back (the -3hr button) & you can see what happened to your (our) storms.
A well define cold cloud cover (CCC) or CDO central feature with a 3/4 or 0.75 banding

Comparing 2007 tornado #s to years past.
14. Skyepony 6:54 PM EST
Comparing 2007 tornado #s to years past.

Skye, those numbers look ENSO related, don't they?

"Conclusions:
There are significant changes in tornadic activity associated with ENSO events in the eastern two-thirds of the United States"
i see hurrican Felix winds been update to 150kt wish would be 170 to 180mph winds in mph


The maximum intensity of Felix near 0000-0600 UTC 3 September has greater than normal uncertainty. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft estimated a 163 kt surface wind in the northeastern eyewall using the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), while a dropsonde in the vicinity measured winds of 195 kt about 120 m above the surface. (The sonde subsequently fell into the eye, which significantly reduced the low-level layer-average winds that are normally used to assess the surface winds.) Examination of these SFMR data by personnel at the NOAA Hurricane Research Division found no obvious problems with signal contamination by rain or graupel. However, the observed flight-level winds (152 kt at 700 mb), aircraft Doppler radar data, central pressure, and satellite signature do not support an intensity of 160-165 kt. Detailed data from the sonde show that the extreme winds were confined to the lowest 200 m, and that it made a left turn into the eye while passing through this layer. This suggests that the sonde and the SFMR sampled a small-scale feature in the eyewall that likely was not representative of the true strength of Felix. As the plane passed through the southeastern eyewall, the SFMR estimated surface winds of 142 kt, while a dropsonde reported low-level layer averages supporting 130-140 kt surface sustained winds. Given the westward motion at the time, it is likely that the stronger winds existed in the northern eyewall. The maximum intensity is set at 150 kt based on a blend of these data, and this could be conservative.
It should be noted that during this eye penetration, the NOAA aircraft encountered extreme turbulence and vertical motions, and it had to abort the mission and return to base.
Felix - 172.733 mph..wow
Glad that is NOT coming my way...

My house would be relocated, probably somewhere near StormW's on the other coast of Florida...
That means Felix's winds are 172.6 miles per hour, which rounds to a whopping 175mph
hey all did you all noted this yet???


WunderPoll:
How valuable do you find the June hurricane season forecasts issued by NOAA and Dr. Bill Gray's group?

Valuable
Not very valuable, but they should keep trying
The forecasts do more harm than good, and they should stop making them

has any one noted the WunderPoll??
No Taz, I didn't even know there was a WunderPoll. Interesting.
i so you where it is

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. at Michigan. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Contact This Blog's Author


WunderPoll:
There are no more questions.
Thanks for taking this poll!


i tryed it out and it was cool
For land areas only, 2007 ranked as the warmest year on record. For the oceans, 2007 was the ninth warmest year on record. La Niña continued to strengthen at the end of the year, creating ocean surface temperatures in large areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific more than -3°F (-1.7°C) below average.

Too bad La Nina developed... although notice that land temperatures were still the warmest on record - which has also been modeled to occur as a result of global warming (land heats up faster than ocean). More support that there is something amiss and it can't all be natural (unless you say that human-induced warming is natural because humans are part of nature). Note I say "it can't be all natural", not that it is all due to human-induced warming, as there are natural cycles (like ENSO).
The maximum intensity is set at 150 kt based on a blend of these data, and this could be conservative.

And they still say it could be conservative... It will also be interesting to see what they say about Dean, since 906 mb corresponds to 180 mph on the Dvorak scale, using the standard pressure-wind relationship, and while much larger than Felix (small compact storms often have higher winds than larger storms), Dean wasn't Katrina-sized, more like Rita-sized, and even Katrina had a 907 mb pressure with 175 mph winds at one point.
Arctic sea ice remains near record low levels
, 13% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began,

They must write this stuff for idiots.

In 1979 they were studying the coming of the next ice age,
because there was so much ice.
Start measuring then, at the peak, and exaggerates every thing.

the ice is much thinner than it was in 2006. This will likely cause a very early melting season and a probable return to record lows by April.

Or it could be the fact that thick ice has to come from some where, and that some where is thin ice.
It could mean that the ice is building back up.

oh doom and gloom LOL



The lightning in Funa as it's developing.

Hiexpress~ I think the information on that graph isn't enough to form an opinion either way.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #9
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Funa Category Three [960 hPa] located near 17.4S 172.2E is reported moving southeast at 12 knots expected to continue its southeast track for the next 24 hours. Maximum 10 minute sustained wind near the center is 70 knots increasing to 85 knots in the next 24 hours. Position FAIR based on Multispectral Enhanced Infrared Radar Imagery with animation and Peripheral Surface Observation.

Hurricane-Force Winds within 25 miles from the center

Storm-Force Winds within 50 miles from the center

Gale-Force Winds within 150 miles from the center.

Deep convection cooling and organization increasing. Cold Spirl Band to east consolidating while wrapping around low level circulation center. Outflow good to east, Fair to south, and developing elsewhere. System still lies in a diffluent region with minimal shear. CIMSS maintains decreasing shear over system and along the forecasted track. Cyclone Funa is steered towards southeast under mid-level ridge to northeast.

Dvorak Intensity based DT 4.5, Thus T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS.

Global models generally agree on further intensification and a southeast track.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 19.2S 173.3E 80 knots [CAT 3]
24 HRS: 20.8S 174.2E 85 knots [CAT 3]
48 HRS: 25.5S 174.6E 50 knots [CAT 2]
morning

excellent microwave imagery....notice the eye wall and egg-shaped eye

PAGASA

Weather Synopsis
===================
At 2 a.m. PST, A Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 230 kms east of Mindanao (9.0°N 129.0°E). Tail-end of a cold front affecting Northern, Eastern and Southern luzon.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary 0600z 18Jan
========================================
An area of convection (92W) located near 10.1N 128.1E or 140 NM east-northeast of Dapa, Philippines. Recent multispectral imagery shows weak cyclonic turning in the low levels with a more evident circulation in the mid level clouds. Quikscat Pass shows unflagged winds of 10-15 knots associated with the convection on the northern periphery of an area of broad troughing. The upper level environment is also limiting intensification with high vertical wind shear values.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1008 mb. Due to the unfavorable upper level environment and a weak vorticity signiture, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.

---
we looking at a potential of 02W already?
Hurricane Warning Issued at 7:00AM UTC

At 06:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Funa CATEGORY THREE [960 hPa] located near 18.4S 162.9E is reported moving southeast at 12 knots, position FAIR. Maximum 10 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots expected to increase to 85 knots within the next 24 hours

Hurricane Force Winds within 25 miles from center

Storm Force Winds within 60 miles from center

Gale Force Winds within 150 miles from center

Next Hurricane Warning at 1:00PM UTC
32. IKE
Winter Storm Watch

Statement as of 4:10 AM CST on January 18, 2008

... Snow expected late Friday night into Saturday for portions of
central Alabama...

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from late tonight through
Saturday evening...

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from Saturday morning through
Saturday evening.

Wintry precipitation... predominately snow... is expected to fall
across portions of central Alabama beginning several hours before
sunrise Friday night lasting into the afternoon hours on Saturday.
Accumulations up to two inches are possible. At this time the
highest accumulations are expected to occur along or just south of
the Interstate 20 corridor between Tuscaloosa and mount cheaha.
Surface temperatures are expected to be between 30 and 34 degrees
late Friday night through midday Saturday. With these expected
temperatures snow accumulation will be possible... especially on
elevated and grassy surfaces. Roadways may become slick in
spots... especially bridges overpasses and other elevated roads.
Visibility may become limited as well. Drivers are urged to
exercise caution.

Although there is still some uncertainty in this forecast it looks
probable that some snow will fall across central Alabama. Stay
advised as we will likely be updating and or revising this watch
as the event develops.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
33. IKE
A 1010 mb low is developing in the SW GOM. Rain is breaking out in eastern Texas. Montgomery,AL. even has a chance of snow showers tomorrow.
2ed WINTER STORM HITTING NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.

Winter Storm watches has been REISSUED again for the piedmont. Addional 2-4inches of snow on top of the snow.

Now total amounts could be over half a foot.Schools here were closed yesterday,today,monday(holiday),tuesday,(required workday,high schools were already out this week if they were excemt from their test.
Question if anyone is online. Is every inch of snow equal to .1 moisture getting to the ground?
Weather folks are saying that not only will NC get measureable amount of snow but it is going to be really cold with a wind chill near zero.
Mountains and foothills should be cold enuff for all snow.(But how the low track its moisture west will be the point)
38. P451
35. NorthxCakalaky 3:02 PM GMT on January 18, 2008
Question if anyone is online. Is every inch of snow equal to .1 moisture getting to the ground?


Depends on the consistency of the snow. I think 1" of rain can be as high as 14" of dry powdery snow and as low as 6" of heavy wet snow equivalent.

Just basing that on memory whenever a forecaster would offer up such info.

I think 1" of rain to 10" of snow is an "accepted average" if you will.
Sorry, I ment about the drought. Will snow dent our drought? I asked that to someone and they said not much for every inch of snow equals .1 moisture to the ground.

Is that wrong?
http://www.nsidc.org/snow/faq.html

Is it true that there is one inch of water in every ten inches of snow that falls?

The water content of snow is more variable than most people realize. While many snows that fall at temperatures close to 32oF and snows accompanied by strong winds do contain approximately one inch of water per ten inches of snowfall, the ratio is not generally accurate. Ten inches of fresh snow can contain as little as 0.10 inches of water up to 4 inches depending on crystal structure, wind speed, temperature, and other factors. The majority of U.S. snows fall with a water-to-snow ratio of between 0.04 and 0.10.


So, in other words, ten inches of snow can contain moisture equivalent to 0.1 to 4 inches of rain. Since the snow forecast for NC is to start as rain, it's likely that it'll be fairly dense snow for at least the first part of the event. I get the impression that they're looking at an inch or more of liquid-equivalent precipitation over a wide area of the state. I hope it pans out.
Hello everyone. I have started a Southeast weather blog which includes the upcoming events.

Link
Thanks, Drak, especially for the graphics (over at your Southeast weather blog).
No problem. I will updating daily .
In response to the question on how much water in snow. It all depends on the air temperature at the time the snow is falling. If it is close to freezing, the water content will be higher than when the temperature is below zero. The link at the bottom takes you to a NOAA conversion Table.
NOAA SNOW _ WATER CONVERSION
Tenth warmest year on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., 2007 was the tenth warmest year on record. U.S. weather records go back to 1895


1895? Ok, and how many billions of years old is the earth? I bet some previous years really slammed it outa the park.
i think its like 4 billion?
yeah, so those stats are like useless. We need Prof. Peabodys WayBack machine,to go back billions of years, and get some real stats. Then, you could state the Top Ten Hottest Years on record.
Thanks Storm good synopsis,even if it was quick.
On rainfall equivalencies:

1 inch of snow can be equivalent to anything from about 0.03 inches of rain (prime Rocky Mountain powder) to 0.2 inches (wet glop). The equivalency for sleet is higher, up to 0.6 inches.
Hello . Been off here since Dec 15..
Not much to talk about here weatherwise in Trinidad, (11n 61 w ). The dry season is setting in as it should. Dry now to June, when the ITCZ and the Tropical waves start affecting things.
Not looking forward to this dry season, when the Sahara dust makes things most unpleasant and drops our visibility down to 3 miles for up to a week. Gets progressively worse each year.
Rainfall at my location for 2007 was 181.2 cm ( about 7 feet ), and the 10 yr average is 202 cm so not much change there.
The change has been in the rainfall pattern. We currently have intense, brief showers with days on hot dry weather between them, very different to the recent past which was days of rain and drizzle with mildew and mould being an issue.
The change has affected water catchment, agriculture, etc., and causes far more damage in terms of flash-floods and landslides on the hills along the North coast. Part of the reason for the change in the pattern is the Sahara dust, which is affecting the temperature as well, causing local heavy convection along the West coast of the Island ( where there are no resevoirs), during the early part of the rainy season ( June to August).
Its all interesting, and is changing fast.
48. PeachTree 11:57 AM CST on January 18, 2008
yeah, so those stats are like useless. We need Prof. Peabodys WayBack machine,to go back billions of years, and get some real stats. Then, you could state the Top Ten Hottest Years on record.


Not totally useless. Yes records have only been kept since the 1800's. BUT since 1895 alone the global human population has more than doubled. Within that time the FACT is that the earth has warmed. Facts cannot be ignored.

Over 6.6 billion inhabitants stripping the world of it's resources, and using more than ever before is going to have some affect on the weather across the world. Noone can argue that the world population as a whole doesnt have any affect on the weather, because we do.

Take major metropolitan area's for example, even small cities of say 30,000. The concrete and buildings in these cities tend to keep heat at the surface, which of course rises up through to the atmostphere. Now speckle hundreds of thousands of these small "heating pads" across the globe and voila, instant warmer places. Even here in Baton Rouge the temperature 9 times outta 10 is warmer than the outskirts to the south. That's just one small example that doesnt even include burned fuels, de-forestation, and waste.

So since records have been kept the average temperature has gone up. That's proven and cannot be argued, and since it's all we have to go by, in a lot of scientists eyes global warming is happening.

Do I believe it's going to have the huge catastrophic impacts that they predict? No, I think some of the predictions are completely bogus. I do however see what the charts say, and relitave to the boom in human population...I'd say we have something to do with it.

Again that's what our figures say, and it's all we have to go by. Doesnt matter what happened in the past, this is now, and it's all we've got.
Doesnt matter what happened in the past,

huh? Ofcourse it does. History repeats itself all the time. What if a million years ago, the earth was going through the same changes we see now? What if it is normal? What if we are getting excited over a normal event? Man hasn't been around that long to know.
Recently(January 4th, 2008) the sun just pasted from a cycle of record sunspots(phase 23) to a much less active phase 24. Ironically, more solar flare causes more radiation to escape and reach Earth's surface then with less solar storms.

Scientists predict that phase 25(due sometime between 2017-2020) may be a record for lest active sunspots. Which means we'll most likely be talking about Global Cooling.

Also note this prediction has nothing to do with the 1970's Global Cooling scare. Then' we barely knew much about sunspots and their role on climate change.
53. PeachTree 1:22 PM CST on January 18, 2008 huh? Ofcourse it does. History repeats itself all the time. What if a million years ago, the earth was going through the same changes we see now? What if it is normal? What if we are getting excited over a normal event? Man hasn't been around that long to know.

I concur but again i state...a million years ago the earth didnt even have a human population (according to records).

The impacts of manmade gases that ineract with atmospheric gases has to have some impact. You cannot justify that the amount of resources we currently use are equalized on a daily bases by the earth itself. The things that we do on a daily basis from the start of a car to the running of a fuel plant affect the atmosphere in some way.

You can base changes on the past, because as you said history does repeat itself. What's not repeated is the amount of people. Earth is more populated now than it ever has been so really we (scientists included) can only really guess what affect we are having based on our 200 year old records, which right now are proving that the earth is warming. 10,000 years from now, if the population is still fluroushing, is when we will need to evaluate everything.

Of course, if it's still warming then I think we'd all be baked to death!
Of course, if it's still warming then I think we'd all be baked to death!

Or, we will mutate and adapt to our environment.
I have to come in here Peachtree.
Historically, we have never been in this position before. Historical data is good, but cannot tell the future because so much has changed ( regardless of why ). The current weather prediction models are still heavily weighted in favour of historical data, and dont take into account recent events ( like the partial elimination of the North ice caps, the southern spread of the sahara etc etc etc ). Will the two examples above reverse themselves next year or in 50 years ? We dont know that.
It is true to say that the climate has changed recently, and that human activity is the most probable cause.
Or, we will mutate and adapt to our environment.

Even better!!!
Saying that the data we have is meaningless is like as if I were to call my GP and say "Doc I have a temp of 101" and he were to say That's only one data point, and you are 57, Do you have a record of your daily temps for at least the last 30 yrs." When I say "No" he says: "Start keeping a record and call me back in 25 yrs."

The demand for a perfect data set is nothing but a way to procrastinate a decision. All human decisions are made with limited data.

The argument that there is insufficient data cuts both ways. If there is insufficient data to support a conclusion then it follows that there is insufficient data to support an alternative interpretation.
Counting on mutation didn't work out to well for the dinosaurs. LOL
ShenValleyFlyFish 3:28 PM EST on January 18, 2008
Saying that the data we have is meaningless

ok, I'll say it

The data we have is meaningless.

We do not have a clue what all of this means. Especially when there is absolutely no standard for taking those temps, and they are talking about 10th's and 100th's of one degree. Everyone is all over the place with it, and we do not have a clue how solar, oceans, biology, botany, orbits, you name it come into play with it.

BTW my normal body temperature is around 96.8.
101 might mean a cold to you, but a coma for me.

yes having a record of my temp is important.
62. P451
Looks like a good storm for the gulf coast, North FL, S half of Georgia, southeast half SC and easternmost NC.

It's completely off the forecast now for the mid atlantic and NE it would seem. Each model run keeps shifting further east.

Looks like SNOW for Central Miss, Ala, North Georgia, SC, and most of NC.

cloud precip composite model

FSU MM5 SE Precip 84 hour total
Dvorak IR Analysis: Tropical Cyclone Funa

Eye Temperature - off-white -20C

Eye wall Temperature - black - -69C

E # - 5.5

Eye Adjustment Factor - 0.0

Current Intensity: 5.5 0.0= CI 5.5



Dvorak Visible Analysis: Tropical Cyclone Funa

Embedded Center is 2 degrees - E 7.0

Eye Adjustment Factors

1) E number suppose to be limted to E6.0 because of large ragged eyes

2) Subtract 1.0 for ragged eyes above E5.0

Banding Features - 1/2 degree - 0.5

CI = 7.0 limited to 6.0-1.0 0.5 = CI 5.5

65. P451
Wow Funa is impressive!

I see it's expected to be cat 3 intensity for at least 12 hours. It already looks it or very close except given the eye presentation as you alluded to.

I admit I am a troll here. I live in St. Petersburg, FL. I was wondering if anyone had a comment regarding Global Warming and the report that Greenland is having some of the coldest temperatures in a decade. Ice forming in all the rivers and canals. Also I read Russia has issued a warning of the brutal cold to the people living in the Siberian region. Temps were a -67 degrees. Thank you. Andy
Hi All!
Trying again Link
My blog is updated with updated snow map.
Drak: NWS Raleigh is calling for 3-5" of snow.

Link
Thats interesting. We will see how the event plays out. Snow forecasting is tricky.
I don't mean to sound disrespectful but the NWS called for accumulating snow in New York with the last coastal low however most of it was freezing rain.
The impacts of manmade gases that ineract with atmospheric gases has to have some impact. You cannot justify that the amount of resources we currently use are equalized on a daily bases by the earth itself. The things that we do on a daily basis from the start of a car to the running of a fuel plant affect the atmosphere in some way.

That is true, and here is something else to consider, for those who don't think that we can have any effect on the environment (which includes climate change): how did the Earth get an atmosphere containing oxygen (it initially had a nitrogen, methane and CO2 atmosphere)? Certainly, any effects we have will never be as extreme as a total change in atmospheric composition and climate, but one would think they are measurable.
How did this get so silly from man having an effect in the environment,
to CO2 being the be all and end all for global warming?

apples and oranges

.
Oh, I just remembered seeing the posts about last year's tornadoes:

14. Skyepony 5:54 PM CST on January 17, 2008
Comparing 2007 tornado #s to years past.


15. HIEXPRESS 6:10 PM CST on January 17, 2008
14. Skyepony 6:54 PM EST
Comparing 2007 tornado #s to years past.

Skye, those numbers look ENSO related, don't they?

"Conclusions:
There are significant changes in tornadic activity associated with ENSO events in the eastern two-thirds of the United States"


From the above link:

The results indicate that El Niño events reduce tornadic activity in the southern plain states, while El Viejo events increase tornadic activity in the Ohio River Valley and Deep South. Results further show that El Niño inhibits the chances of multiple tornado outbreaks, while La Niña facilitates large tornadic outbreaks and produces more devastating tornadoes.

That makes me wonder what this year's tornado season may be like (and perhaps the second largest January tornado outbreak on record a week ago is a sign of things to come). Also, here is something that I found a year ago on La Nina and tornado activity (does it sound like what happened last year; specifically the blurb about the May tornadoes? - this was talking about 1999):

La Nina Probably Contributed to Huge Tornadoes

Cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the mid-Pacific, called La Nina, have caused many bizarre weather effects in North America, including record snow and monster tornadoes.

Start Date: 5/10/99

A rash of killer tornadoes that swept through the midwest United States in early May -- including at least one giant F-5, the most powerful category, packing winds approaching 300 miles per hour -- were driven in part by La Nina, scientists say. The cold-water condition in the mid-Pacific ocean, also credited with dropping a record 91 feet of snow on mountains in Washington state this winter, can be expected to produce more devastating tornadoes in the coming months. Already the number recorded this season is running ahead of normal expectations.
"The signal is there," said Steve Byrd, science officer for the National Weather Service in Omaha, Neb. "The incidence of tornadoes on the central Plains is slightly higher during La Nina."

The monster F-5 tornado that hit Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on May 3, 1999 may be one of the most powerful twisters ever recorded. It cut a path of destruction 19 miles long and nearly one mile wide and stayed on the ground for a full hour -- an unheard-of duration for normal tornadoes.

La Nina causes a colder-than-normal jet stream over the continental United States, which mixes with warm moist air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico to produce ideal tornado conditions. Scientists studying global climate change warn that more extreme El Nino and La Nina conditions can be expected in the future, bringing more extreme weather patterns as well.


(note - the server the original article was found on appears to be permanently down; I have it saved here)
The impacts of manmade gases that interact with atmospheric gases has to have some impact.

yeah "some"....but how does anyone measure levels of Co2 with much certainty in such a complex world? Billions of it are being consumed by plants instantaneosly, and produced in tandum.

Last time I heard, Co2 makes up 1/100 of 1% of our atmosphere. There's more evidence of solar connections and vapor contributions....
I wish I could stick around for a lengthy discussion but, alas, I cannot.

My own 2 bits: Isn't it odd that the beginng of the increased rate of rise of the "US" and "Global" temperatures coincide exactly with the advent of the infrared spectromoter in space (the same device that began measuring the sea ice coverage over the Arctic)? I put US and global in quotes above because those measurements are not US and global before the satellites, they are the temperature of the locations at which we measure it...always changing with changing instruments. Is there a cycle? Yes. Does it suddenly change when we finally began to measure the temperature over a far larger spatial area by satellite? Yes. Do we have enough of a satellite record to be sure we aren't simply seeing a 30-year cycle in a different way? Heck NO!

The timing of it all is a little too neat and tidy for the facism that the real drivers behind the "control your energy usage for you" crowd want.

NCEP claiming and others spouting that number X is the global temperature without having a pixel for every point on the globe, but instead a couple of hundred surface measurements (some conducted by farmers to whom everything is relative and most of which were in the US) is bull dookey. Guess what...that statement applies to everything before 1980.

Do we need to make every reasonable effort to make as little an imprint as possible on the environment? Absolutely. When we go camping, we pick up the trash, but stop short of collecting the pee off of the base of that tree over there. (How do we know that our scent will not stop the deer that were going to meet from mating and making babies?) Same goes for more effecient use of our fuels and the byproducts produced. It is only reasonable to a point.
76. quasigeostropic 2:42 AM GMT on January 19, 2008
The impacts of manmade gases that interact with atmospheric gases has to have some impact.

yeah "some"....but how does anyone measure levels of Co2 with much certainty in such a complex world? Billions of it are being consumed by plants instantaneosly, and produced in tandum.

Last time I heard, Co2 makes up 1/100 of 1% of our atmosphere. There's more evidence of solar connections and vapor contributions....


Hah! love the handle!

Your average CO2 molecule will stay a gas in the atmosphere for more than 100 years allowing for the gas to be evenly distributed around the hemisphere. The only noticible change from location to location in the CO2 concentration has to do with northern or southern hemisphere growing seasons

And, yes, CO2 is about 1/100 of the atmosphere by volume, slighly more by mass.
78. atmoaggie 8:56 PM CST on January 18, 2008
76. quasigeostropic 2:42 AM GMT on January 19, 2008


LOL... Did he reply to my comment? Tell him that it is futile... has he ever heard of the Ignore List (or wondered what that "Ignore User" link is for)?
Michael~ By that graph the worst year (2004) was a warm neutral that spent the 2nd 1/2 in a El Nio. Had more storms hitting land than would expect for that year for the same reason. Saying there was a corilation '99 & '96 would make good years to compare to our up coming season. The recent trend to tornados toward the north & in Canada with such an early start does seem to bode bad. These lows trying in the gulf, with the shear aloft set up we keep seeing begs bad storms.
Also, as far as CO2 goes, even a small change will have big implications because of feedback effects, and because we need to use the Kelvin scale when dealing with temmperature changes (as we have to when dealing with a queation like "if it is 0 degrees C, how cold is twice as cold?). A 0.1% increase in degrees Celsius is far different (and incorrect) than a 0.1% increase in Kelvin (the proper way).

Otherwise, how do you explain the observed warming (aliens?) I also imagine that there are way more than just 100 stations recording temperatures worldwide, and not inlcuding those just in the U.S...
... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Melbourne... [FL]

A record rainfall of 0.66 inches fell on Melbourne yesterday. This
deluge breaks the old record of 0.29 set in 1955.

Vapor is looping


More rain appears to be coming. Nat'l Radar loop (Big)
Maybe some lightning too.

75. MichaelSTL
I hope that apparent pattern doesn't bear out for your area this year. ENSO affects number, size, & distribution of tornadoes. (Just an opinion;)
80. Skyepony 9:11 PM CST on January 18, 2008
Michael~ By that graph the worst year (2004) was a warm neutral that spent the 2nd 1/2 in a El Niño.


I think the relationship has more to do with violent/deadly tornadoes than all tornadoes; many of the tornadoes in 2004 were relatively weak (it also had a possibly record low number of tornado deaths, just 36, while 2007 was the worst tornado year since 1999, I also read on another blog that it set a record for severe weather damage in Canada). One reason why so many of them were weak in 2004 was because they were tropical cyclone tornadoes (a couple of the hurricanes produced over 100 tornadoes each).
Yep. I cant disagree or Im a "denialist".....No one knows what's happening in our world of climate, we dont have enough info. Plain and simple.
Hey STL...there have been a lot of alien sightings recently lol...have a good night.
Did he reply to my comment? Tell him that it is futile... has he ever heard of the Ignore List (or wondered what that "Ignore User" link is for)?

That has nothing to do with what I said.......And plants and a zillion other things consume that Co2 when its produced....How do you even know at what point Co2 becomes beneficial? You cant measure it, it is impossible to do so reliably......

and if I was on "ignore" you must have looked at my post anyways.
Michael~ Now the direct tie to deadly, large, long lived & more north makes perfect sense.

HiExpress~ That deluge was nice. Had another .12" today.

Funa forecast track
.12 woo hoo! I went to the boat show today. Going to buy an Ark.

Lake Okeechobee didn't get that much.
I hope that apparent pattern doesn't bear out for your area this year. ENSO affects number, size, & distribution of tornadoes. (Just an opinion;)

Well, it might be like last year, when most of the intense activity was further west. On the other hand, 2006 was one of those years where severe weather was localized around here (setting tornado records for Missouri and Illinois; the St. Louis NWS CWA also had the most severe weather of any NWS office in the country), it was also very early starting with severe weather and tornadoes in early January. I am sure there are other factors besides ENSO that affect tornado activity (although it should be noted that there was a weak La Nina in early 2006; tornado activity across the country declined quite a bit after April). Of the past few years, I think 2005 was one of the strangest; I can remember reading that it could be a record low year for tornado deaths and killer tornadoes (well, until November, when one tornado was responsible for about 2/3 of all of the deaths that year, and even that tornado wasn't really strong, as it struck a mobile home park) - and none occurred in April-June, I believe the first time that ever happened.
Although they can happen anytime, if memory serves, here in Central Fl the last tornado outbreaks with high death tolls (1998, 2007) occurred during ElNino phases. During ENSO neutral conditions (La Nada), I think we get hail. GN
I took this from another website...ummmm, kinda funny unless you're a cowboys fan.

NEW TORNADO POLICY for Dallas-Ft. Worth area:


In case of possible tornadoes sweeping through the Dallas-Ft.
Worth area, we ask that all residents take shelter at Texas Stadium. We
are certain that a touchdown will not occur there.





Thank you for your cooperation,

National Weather Bureau
At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Funa Category Four [930 hPa] located near 20.9S 174.8E is reported moving south-southeast at 11 knots expected to turn south in the next 6 hours then southwest. Maximum 10 minute sustained wind near the center is 95 knots decreasing to 80 knots in the next 6-12 hours. Position GOOD based on Multispectral Enhanced Infrared Radar Imagery with animation and Peripheral Surface Observation.

Hurricane-Force Winds within 40 miles from center

Storm-Force Winds within 65 miles from center

Gale-Force Winds within 180 miles from center.

Organization has increased in the last 6 hours. An irregular eye with deep convection cooling around it. The system is maintaining good equatorward outflow. CIMSS shows low to moderate shear over the system. The system is expected to weaken as it comes under the influence of stronger wind shear that exist about 25S with significantly cooler sea surface temperatures.

Dvorak based on DT5.5, Thus T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS.

Global models agree that the system will move along a rapid poleward track, turning gradually southward then southwest. The system is expected to become a strong extra-tropical low.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 23.5S 175.7E 80 knots [CAT 3]
48 HRS: 32.3S 169.0E 45 knots [CAT 1]

There's some links in here to US maps with tornado #s per state. Certainly looks like Hiexpress & I have good reason to fear the El Niño years (well in addition to the El Nino fire season).
Nowcast as of 5:33 am CST on January 19, 2008

Periods of cold light rain...mixed with light sleet and snow...will continue through 7 am across portions of northeast Louisiana...and much of west...central...and east Mississippi. Sleet or snow accumulations will be light...mainly on colder surfaces such as metal objects and in grassy areas. A light accumulation on area bridges and overpasses will also be possible with this activity. As a result...motorists should use caution when commuting through the area this morning.


Russians Brace For The Big Chill

Moscow, Russia (AHN) - Russians are bracing for temperatures of as low as minus 55 degrees Celsius (minus 67 degrees Fahrenheit) in Siberia as Russia's emergencies ministry warns on Wednesday of its impending dangers in the coming weeks.

Government agencies were placed on high alert, reports AFP. The ministry ordered local administration officials to prepare for the extreme chill expected to last until Jan. 21.

The ministry warned that the unusually cold weather could kill, cause frost-bite, conk heaters and cut electricity to homes, disrupt transport, increase the rate of car accidents and even destroy buildings across Siberia.

The freezing temperatures have already caused overloading of electricity grids and power interruptions in the regions of Irkutsk and Tomsk because of overused heaters in homes. Two people have already died and more than 30 others hospitalized with forst-bite in Irkutsk, reports AFP citing state media.

Bloomberg reports that worst hit will be the Siberian region of Evenkiya, while neighbor Georgia, whose climate is subtropical, already plunged to as low as minus 35 degrees Celsius. Lake Paliastomi in the western Georgia froze for the first time in 50 years, reports Rustavi-2 television.

Average temperatures in large Siberian cities in January usually range between minus 15 degrees Celsius and minus 39 degrees Celsius, according to data from weatherbase.com. Schools have been closed down in at least four regions because of the cold.

what is going on at the moment in hurricane land?
GM

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

Moderate to strong convection is spreading across the Gulf of Mexico north of 25N and the Southeast United States. This activity is associated with the leading edge of a storm system’s surface low at 21N/91W and warm front extending from the low to Central Florida at 26N-82W. This area lies within the left entrance region of an upper ridge axis across the Caribbean and thus allowing deep shower activity to prevail. The preceding mid-upper level southwesterly flow aloft is spreading a swath of mid-upper level cloudiness and showers across Mexico from the Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico west of 90W. Otherwise, clear to partly cloudy skies is seen elsewhere.

Deep layer anticyclonic flow covers the Atlantic Ocean west of 60W. Mid-upper level cloudiness flows from the Southeast United States to 60W north of 30N. At the surface, anticyclonic flow and fair weather dominates south of 30N from 55W to the Bahamas...centered on a 1027 mb high near 28N-62W.

by W456
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

This morning's QuikSCAT and surface observations revealed winds above 20 knots dominates the region. This is producing 7-8 ft seas across most parts and 13 ft seas along the Colombian coast where the pressure gradient is tightest. This increase in wind and the subsequent wave activity can be blamed on the broad 1027 mb high north of the region. Upper ridging and dry air covers the entire basin with plentiful clear to partly cloudy skies especially over the Eastern Caribbean where confluent flow alft exist. Any shower activity will be confined to isolated patches of tradewind moisture and because of the tradewind speed, these should be brief. The exception will be along parts the Central American terrain, especially the windward sides where orographical lift will cause enhance rainfall and because they are being blocked, showers may be persistent but shallow here. Enjoy the Caribbean today!


by W456
Good morning. Just checking in to see what is going on. Looks like the NE will miss any snow from the frigid cold front as it passes. Have a good day.
Good morning everyone!
Just checking on the Great Lakes, and with the water still being above freezing, they are calling for some Lake efffect snow. It will be interesting to see how much they end up with. Have a good day and will check latter to see how things are doing.
I think whatever influence man might have on the environment is dwarfed in all measurements by whatever the Sun happens to be doing.

Man might be causing some global warming, but man is insignificant when compared to what the sun does.....
Good morning stormw, storm77, lawn and all lurkers
106. MikeOhio 9:39 AM EST on January 19, 2008

Get a glass. Fill it almost to the brim. Steadily drip water into the glass. When it overflows collect and measure overflow. But it was only the last drop that caused it. That's how nature works. The question is not the proportion of human impact to the system but can the system take one more drop.
Southeast weather blog updated.
Link
Shen, the question is how long can the planet maintain this warm temperature that we have all gotten used to for the past 10,000 years.

The planet has spent most of history much colder for much longer. It has somehow managed to maintain a higher temperature - called an optimum - that we have evolved to live in.

We should be worried about getting colder again, that is what the planet has historically done, and what is the most logical prediction.

Link
111. P451
106. MikeOhio 2:39 PM GMT on January 19, 2008 Hide this comment.
I think whatever influence man might have on the environment is dwarfed in all measurements by whatever the Sun happens to be doing.

Man might be causing some global warming, but man is insignificant when compared to what the sun does.....


I think the earth goes through heating and cooling periods and I don't believe we are the lone initiators of this latest heating per say but I do believe we are contributing to it.

However, that is a good question, how much do we exactly contribute to it? How far into the atmosphere do our contributions go?

Not only the sun's activity but the activity of the inner core of the planet also have much larger implications on our weather.

Building on that: Anytime a major volcanic eruption takes place what do we hear? How the earth will cool for a few years in response to the ash in the atmosphere reflecting sunlight.

Excluding the time when the earth was born which was no doubt a fiery time there has been vast climate changes both extremely warm and extremely cold and I have no doubt those cycles will continue to repeat themselves.

As it has been noted in history, warmups cause stormier weather which eventually helps replenish the polar caps and helps cool the atmosphere and begins a new cooling trend.

The scare tatic that the earth is on an unstoppable rise in temperature is irresponsible at best especially give how far back our records go.

Another thing about records, it's not the dates they go back, but now regions of the earth that report data which is factored in without respect to whether or not cooler or warmer areas that were once uninhabited or never reported are now poisoning the overall average data.

You can't trust it. All you can say is at the moment there is an upward trend in warming at the present time.

The climate changes and will continue to do so for eternity. It will grow warmer and then one day be much cooler than it is today then warmer again. We're not in control of that as much as we'd like to believe.
afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Winter Weather
Advisory... which is in effect until 3 PM CST this afternoon. The
Winter Weather Advisory area is generally south of a line from New
Augusta Mississippi to Monroeville Alabama to Luverne Alabama... and
north of a line from Pensacola to Andalusia Alabama.

A low pressure system will pass across the northeast Gulf and into
the western Atlantic today. A large area of precipitation across the
area will gradually shift eastward while cold air continues to flow
into the region. The cold air is resulting in rain becoming mixed
with sleet and possibly snow. Accumulations of snow will be generally
less than 1 inch on grassy areas... bridges and overpasses. Even colder
air will flow into the region tonight... turning any water that
remains on roadways... sidewalks and other surfaces into ice... making
for especially treacherous conditions.

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while


SNow for F.L.


Drak, 3-6 inches? Dont look like the professionals are saying that
hey all i have been on a little hiatus but i am back. down here in florida it has been a little too warm for this time of year. i'm just glad there is a cold front coming down tonight
Weather History
Did you know that...
On this date in 1977, a remarkable thing happened. Snow fell in Florida as far south as the northern Florida Keys. Snowflakes were reported at Miami, and the southernmost snowfall in U.S. history fell at Homestead, Fla. when the city picked up a trace of the white stuff.

- More Weather Education Resources -
I'm going to DC tomorrow and there is no snow predicted, but I was wondering if the sub freezing temperatures would allow any ice to form. I guess it depends on the amount of moisture and such. Some one explain please! I was born in the DR and then moved to Fl so I have absolutely no idea about winter weather.
I don't think there will be any snow for Florida. If there is any it would very light flurries or sleet. Already starting to clear out around the Pensacola area and water vapor imagery shows some mid to upper level dry air infiltrating into Mississippi and moving Alabama.
There's some new questions on my blog to answer, you can view them here.
FLWF91..The air will be cold and dry behind the front the chance of ice from residual moisture is unlikely due to evaporation via the dry air but you might still have a couple puddles that could freeze at night...I beleave that there are places to ski/snowboard only about an hour outside of metro d.c. ..hope the info helps a little..stillwaiting
thanks stillwaiting
WOW! This squall nearing Fl looks insane.
Wow, Holy dog Crud! Im about to get Slammed by Tornados and Sever Thunderstorms! I have Tornado Watches up and Sever Thunderstrom Watches!
Guys- This squall line is strengthening and it looks like it means business! Many times, these things begin to lose some punch as they near shore, but this one has a TON of fuel to work with!

Be alert! Tampa Bay will get rocked pretty hard this evening.
yea its Bad.

Those of you in the Jacksonville area need to take cover! Dangerous lighting and winds of 70mph are over you now. Stay safe!!!
Tampa area is getting hammered. Tornado warnings everywhere. I am still dry, but that is about to change...
I am getting hammered bad in Tampa in the Town and Country/ West Chase area.
Hello everyone. Hi JP and Nash
I saw a tornado watch, & some severe thunderstorm warnings, but I did not yet see a tornado warning. Anybody see one in Florida?
looks like a vortex is just off shore St. Pete area...
Several tornado warnings in the Tampa area.

There are a couple of water spouts heading towards me now.
West Central Hillsborough needs to look out. Possible hooker coming in the area.
Very strong signature approaching my area in Apollo Beach now.
yep i see it Nash be careful.
Radar loop Link
Possible vortex in the mouth of Tampa Bay.
Vortex right offshore of Apollo Beach....
Nash it looks like a possble vortex just south of McDill AFB.
Was Just slammed, big time in Florida Here, Lots of Rain, and Low dipping Clouds.
Not over yet for Tampa...

Plenty of strong cells training in from the SW.
Training going on now in Apollo Beach. Had a downburst about 15 minutes ago.
Hold on JP!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington, New Zealand

TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA
27.4S 173.6E - 80 knots 950 hPa

Hurricane Warnin
--------------------------
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funa [950 hPa] located near 27.4S 173.6E is reported moving south-southwest at 20 knots. Maximum 10 minute sustained wind near the center is 80 knots

Hurricane-Force Winds within 30 miles from center

Storm-Force Winds within 120 miles from center

Gale-Force Winds within 360 miles from center southwest semi-circle
and 180 miles from the center northwest semi-circle
Hi all from Tampa
Any one here from tampa brave like me go to the gasparall parade?
Think I miss spelled that.
dearmas,

u misspelled misspelled, too.

LOL

Don't they cancel the parade if the weather is bad?
Is it supposed to be Gasparilla?

Something about pirates? Link
I know, I misspelled that too lol. They did have the parade but stopped it early due to the weather and also canceled the fireworks show until tomorrow night. The weather got realllllly bad, wind was wow. long day
I have lived in Tampa all my life and the Parade has NEVER been canceled or stoped
We had a similar problem this year for Junkanoo. Usually it's so dry here that cancellations are almost unheard of. I think Junkanoo has been postponed or cut short due to weather less than 5 times in the last 50 or so years . . .
yeah it sucked. It's sommething that the kids look forward to every yr. We did see some sun a for a few sec today lol
Looks like the worst of the storms are now running along a SW-NE line to the NW of Sebring, FL. The Melbourne area looks to get slammed later tonight . . .

Is this line supposed to dip down past the tip of Florida tomorrow or Monday?
Looks like Sebring and the Titusville area are in for it now.

Doesn't look like much is making it to the lake, though.
Wow. Funa looks like it may give Auckland, NZ a real scare . . .

Thanks for the post, Doc
Cyclone warning for Norfolk Island
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/01/20/2142389.htm
Hi all,

This is my first post here, but I have been lurking here for a few years now as I have an avid interest in tropical cyclones, I always find Dr Masters' posts very informative and I have learned a lot from them.

I live in Auckland, NZ, and yes Funa is bearing down on us. The winds are starting to pick up and the sky is going grey. However by the satelite photos it is looking a lot less potent now than it was 24 hours ago (extra-tropical transition is well underway), and no major warnings have been issued yet by the met service. If you dig around at www.metservice.co.nz at this stage they expect the strongest winds and heaviest rains to stay offshore west of the North Island, however they are keeping a very close eye on the storm just in case it does take a more southerly course than expected, in which case it's gonna get real rough round here over the next couple of days.

David.
Welcome, David.....and thanks for sharing your observations
172. P451
167. BahaHurican 2:03 AM GMT on January 20, 2008 Hide this comment.
Wow. Funa looks like it may give Auckland, NZ a real scare . . .


Only in waves... the water temperature gradient falls off drastically in that region. It's impossible at this point, given the storm track and timing, to give NZ anything more than some rain, a little breezy weather, and some swells.

Funa will be almost nothing if it does complete the curve towards NZ.

Hi P451,

Whist I agree that Funa is fading as a tropical storm, it is still possible for extra-tropical storms to reintensify as baroclinic systems and cause incredible damage in the NZ area.

Check out this link to a story about what Cyclone Giselle did in April 1968 - Wind gust up to 275km/h in the Wellington area, the Wahine ferry sank in Wellington harbour at the cost of 51 lives, and lots of flooding and wind damage up and down the country.

Also, this link to the same website shows what happened with Cyclone Bola in 1988, no deaths but a lot of flood damage to the Gisborne area that got up to 900mm (36 inches) of rain in 3 days, in an area that normally gets that amount of rain in an entire year.

Yes the SSTs in our area mean that any cyclones that do pass our way struggle to maintain their tropical characteristics, but that doesn't mean that they shouldn't be treated with any less caution.

David.
Yay Tropical cyclone Funa is coming to visit. Can't wait for some rain to lower the fire risk.
power lines fried while I was at work here! Had no idea there were all those tornado warnings around me! I live in central pinnelas, most wicked thunderstorms in a while around here, had to be gusting at least 65, went whiteout, coudn't see anyting till the powerlines came down annd threw sparks everywhere! The building was shaking from the force of the wind I couldn't believe my eyes.
TCWC Wellington

Hurricane Warning re-issued by RSMC Nadi

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funa [965 hPa] located near 29.0S 171.5E is reported moving southwest at 20 knots. Maximum 10 minute sustained wind near the center is 70 knots

Hurricane-Force Winds within 20 miles from center

Storm-Force Winds within 180 miles from center southern semi-circle
and 60 miles from center northern semi-circle

Gale-Force Winds within 300 miles from center southern semi-circle
and 180 miles from the center northern semi-circle
Good Morning:

Just syopped in to see what was going on. Got those down under, stay safe and out of harms wat. Funa looks pretty good. Here in the NE USA we are having a cold snap. Have a good day
GM,

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A cold front is pushing across the Northwest Caribbean and Western Atlantic from the Gulf of Honduras to beyond 30N/75W. Upper level moisture...in the form of multilayered cloudiness...flows from the Mexican Mainland across the Gulf of Mexico and parts Southeast United States within 200 nmi behind the frontal boundary. The associated high-pressure system is established 1035 mb over the Upper Mississippi Valley, producing fair weather, northerly-northeasterly gale force winds and 7-14 ft seas over the Gulf of Mexico with storm force winds over the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec. Cold air stratocumulus is found downstream over the Gulf south of 27N.

A frontal boundary goes from Western Cuba across the Northern Bahamas and along 28N/75W 33N/70W. Light to moderate shower activity is within 120 nmi either side of the front. Ahead of the front, fair weather dominates with small stratocumulus cells seen rotating around the Central Atlantic ridge...east of 65W.

by W456
On this page:
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2004/summ0403.htm
Scroll down & revisit the unofficially named South Atlantic tropical cyclone Catarina in 2004. Could it happen again? Sure. When?
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Upper level ridging and mid-upper level dry air dominates the Caribbean Basin, thereby, deep shower activity remains absent and fair weather is the dominant pattern. Trades are 20 knots south of the subtropical ridge, driving shallow cloudiness and passing showers over the Eastern Caribbean and Western Caribbean to meet the frontal boundary. These trades are also producing 7-8 ft seas across most parts and 13 ft seas along the Colombian coast where the pressure gradient is tightest.

by W456
181. P451
That's a very good point, Dave, I did not think about extra-tropical transition. I was thinking purely on a tropical standpoint. One track mind prevailing yesterday :D



Afternoon, everybody.

Glad to see we got some kiwis onboard. Welcome, Dave and sk8er.

I did some cursory looking around at the North Island topography after noting the potential approach of Funa to the area, and I can see where landslides and flooding could be serious in the area. I'd forgotten about the multiple volcanic cones on the North Island, and had been thinking about the South Island as "the one with the mountains".

Sure hope you guys fare well, regardless of the tropical or extra-tropical nature of the storm.
Currently here we're having light rain, overcast skies, an a wind from the east about 5-7 knots max. Ambient temperature has dropped a good bit since yesterday, too. It feels like winter out there today. ON Friday it felt like April or early May - too hot.
Hmmm. . . getting some thunder / lightning with this band of storms. Wish I could get the local radar page to work . . .