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2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on April 19, 2007

It's too soon to find many clues about what the upcoming hurricane season might be like, since we are facing the famed "April Predictability Barrier". The atmosphere is not predictable enough to make a skillful forecast of seasonal hurricane activity in April (this changes by late May, when skillful predictions of the upcoming hurricane season CAN be made). Thus, we should put little faith in the predictions by the Klotzback/Gray group and TSR made in April, calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 or 5 intense hurricanes. However, there are a few indicators we can start looking at. I covered these in a talk I gave last week at Eckerd College in St. Petersburg that many of you asked to hear about, so here goes!


Figure 1. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) difference between March 2007 and 2005. Cool colors are regions where the SST was colder in 2007, and yellows and greens where SSTs were warmer in 2007. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Outlook
Sea Surface temperatures are at the heart of any attempt to analyze seasonal hurricane activity, since SSTs change slowly and have a major impact on both the number of storms that form and their intensity. For example, the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005 had the warmest SSTs ever observed in the tropical Atlantic. Comparing the SSTs in March of 2007 with March of 2005 (Figure 1), we see that SSTs were more than 1 degree C cooler in 2007 over a large portion of the Atlantic west of the Lesser Antilles Islands. This is a key portion of the "Main Development Region" (MDR) for hurricanes (red box in Figure 1). The MDR is where 85% of all major hurricane form. Note, though, that the regions where Katrina, Rita, and Wilma formed--the Bahamas to the Western Caribbean--have SSTs warmer this year than in 2005. Overall, SSTs are well above average across most of the tropical Atlantic this year, continuing the pattern we have seen since 1995, when the current active Atlantic hurricane period began. We can expect this year's SSTs to support a more active than usual hurricane season, although there is still time for a significant cooling to occur if we get a major increase in the speed of the trade winds over the next few months.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average in the region 120W-170W, 5S-5N (called the Nio 3.4 region) for 2006 and 2007. Temperatures +0.5C above average in this region indicate an El Nio episode; temperatures -0.5C below average indicate an La Nia. Note that EL Nio peaked in December, then rapidly decayed to neutral conditions in early February. Image credit:NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

El Nio/La Nia Outlook
Obviously, SSTs don't tell the whole story, since the second highest SSTs in the tropical Atlantic since the 1870s occurred last year. To our great relief, we had a very normal year with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. As we see in Figure 2, that was in part because 2006 was an El Nio year. El Nio events usually suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, by bringing increased wind shear and dryer, sinking air over the Atlantic. This is not always the case--recall 2004? El Nio conditions were even stronger that year (as measured by SST departures from average in the Equatorial Pacific), yet that year saw 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes in the Atlantic. Florida got walloped with four hurricanes.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average (left) and wind shear departure from average (right) from the April 10, 2007 run of NOAA's CFS model. The forecasts are for the 3-month period August-October spanning the most active part of hurricane season. Note the long tongue of cooler than average waters forecast to extend from the South American coast along the Equatorial Pacific--the telltale sign of a La Nia episode. Image credit:NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Regardless, El Nio is gone this year, and SSTs have been nearly average across the Equatorial Pacific since mid-February. Is El Nio likely to come back, or will its evil twin, La Nia strike this year? Well, according the early April run of NOAA's Climate Forecast System (CFS) model (Figure 3), we can expect a weak to moderate La Nia event during hurricane season (August-October). This should bring below average values of wind shear over the Atlantic, which should enhance hurricane activity. Other forecast models predict neutral conditions for hurricane season, and very few models foresee a return to El Nio conditions this year. NOAA's April 5 El Nio discussion indicates that the current pattern of ocean temperatures observed over the Equatorial Pacific is consistent with a developing La Nia event. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society is forecasting only a 10% chance of El Nio conditions during hurricane season in 2007. The chances of La Nia are put at 50%, and 40% for neutral conditions. What is the skill of these forecasts in April for an upcoming hurricane season? IRI doesn't tell us, but it's not good. Last year's April forecasts failed to predict the arrival of El Nio during hurricane season, leading to a large overestimation of hurricane activity. Still, the best information we have at this time says that El Nio is unlikely to occur during hurricane season, Since the active period of hurricane activity that we are in began in 1995, both La Nia and neutral years have seen very high levels of hurricane activity (Figure 4). In fact, calling La Nia an "evil twin" is not fair, since neutral years have had even higher hurricane activity than La Nia years (thanks in great measure to the Hurricane Season of 2005).


Figure 4. Observed numbers of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes (Category 3 and higher) for the 12-year period beginning in 1995. Background image is of Australia's Tropical Cyclone Monica, the most intense storm of 2006.

African dust outlook
African dust is thought to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, although its role is not well understood. As I explained in a blog last year, research shows that the presence of drought conditions in the Sahel region of Africa the previous year will increase the amount of dust wafting over the Atlantic during hurricane season. This occurs because drought-damaged soil takes about a year to dry up and create lots of dust to be blown away. Last year saw average to above-average rains during the rainy season (June-September) over the Sahel (Figure 5). This was also the case in 2005, so in theory, two straight years of good rains in the Sahel should act to keep African dust levels over the Atlantic no higher than average this hurricane season. The last significant drought years in the Sahel were 2001 and 2002.

Figure 5. Departure of precipitation from average in Africa for August 2006. The region in the red box is the Sahel region of Africa that accounts for most of the year-to-year variability in dust transport over the Atlantic Ocean. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The outlook for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season
If the forecasts of above normal sea surface temperatures, no El Nio, and below average African dust come true, the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be very active. However, since our skill in predicting these things in April is low, the most reasonable forecast to make is a post-1995 climatology forecast: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. (The 100-year climatology is 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes). By May, the atmosphere and ocean begin to give us significant clues about the upcoming hurricane season. Tune into the late May seasonal forecasts issued by NOAA, the Klotzback/Gray group, TSR, and Cuba's meteorological service!

My next blog will be Earth Day--Sunday, April 22. Next week, I also plan to review an article published today that hypothesizes that global warming should cause a significant increase in wind shear over the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, inhibiting hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Correct Ryang, I said that too.

England doing good.
502. ryang
Yeah pottery.....seeing it on skysports.
KRIS, whats the position re. funding ???????
Nice Ryang.
Things look to be hot in the party stand in Bridgetown. Wish I was there.............
Everyboddy gone for a siesta ?????????
WBK:Sheri,it seems that the high will be further west than normal this year.
What does that mean? I'm sorry just trying to understand I'm not trying to bother you.
Sheri
with the high further west that seems to mean less recurving.
any other thoughts???
Yep.The high being further west means less systems would recurve.
Posted By: pottery at 6:59 PM GMT on April 21, 2007.

What is the position re, funding, anyway ? Reduced as stated by Dr. M some time ago ? Or not ??


I don't know if it's been reduced or not,but anything but what is necessary is too little.If any research project gets canceled due to lack of funding....that's one too many.
According to THIS MAP! The cooler than normal waters in the MDR as indicated by Dr. Masters are gone and on the warm side now, excluding a few spotty areas. One of the things I will be monitoring in the next month will be 200MB anti-cyclones that I have noticed in the Atlantic and Carribbian this year. We'll have to see if that continues, could be another notch on the active season's belt.
Yep.Also,the winds at 200mb steer strong storms.
So,you can also see steering currents for major hurricanes on those 200mb maps.
Actually, the water never was cooler than normal; notice that Dr. Masters map says "1 degree colder in 2007" (compared to 2005), not "1 degree colder than normal". Here is an example from mid-March.
I guess Dr. Masters was just comparing this year to 2005! I really hate to do that, 2005 was such an oddity. Hard not to though, I guess. To see if this year would stack up to 2005?
2005 was NOT as much an oddity as the media would have you believe.1933 had about as many storms and 1950 had more major hurricanes.
Also,1995 was almost as active(although nowhere near as damaging).
When was the last time a season broke just about every record (and almost reached or broke many other records)??? That is the thing about 2005. I wouldn't be surprised if this year breaks some of the records set in 2005; it is normal for records to be set every once in a while because weather is chaotic and random (but withing limits), but definately not normal to break this many records in one season.
7 more storms than 1933 is quite a bit, I would say. And all the cat5's, wierd places for storms to form and make landfall. I think it was if your comparing apples to apples.
I wouldn't really say that 1995 or 1933 were "almost" as active; that makes it sound as if 2005 had only a couple more storms; in reality, 2005 had 7 more storms than 1933 and 9 more than 1995 - a 33 to 47 percent increase.
521. MZT
Last year seemed quiet in comparison to 2005. But it would have fit in just fine in the 1980s as a "normal" season.

If we are about to have a "normal" late 1990s-2000's style season, there will plenty of storms to watch.
What about the storms likely missed in '33?Anyway,BBL.
What is interesting about 1933 compared to 2005 is where the bulk of the storms formed. It almost seemed like there was a big dust problem that year also!
just got eye of the storn software highly reccomend it
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 10:28 PM GMT on April 21, 2007.

I wouldn't really say that 1995 or 1933 were "almost" as active; that makes it sound as if 2005 had only a couple more storms; in reality, 2005 had 7 more storms than 1933 and 9 more than 1995 - a 33 to 47 percent increase
.

but u have to admit those were active seasons
HI guys.anyone got any input on how the african dust situation will be this year? compared to last year?
Africa

Africas bubbling
Africa

one more try
last oneAfrica
lol chess, that first one was tiny...☺
Dr. Masters explained it best in the blog above Hank. 2 straight years of normal to above normal rains in the Sahal Desert would equate to normal to below normal dust in the Atlantic.
640 x 480 is always a good dimension to use...
lot of activity in Africa. Any comments?
535. ryang
Hello SJ...LOL 640*480 is always good!
640 x 480 is always a good dimension to use...
THANKS
537. ryang
Chessracal yes that moisture will provide any thing tropical off Africa to form easier time hurricane season.
sorry bout that, first picture.
539. ryang
West Africa is experiencing flooding because of those storms.
Very active for sure! But WINDS are not aligned yet! Pretty soon the westerlies will start and those blobs will make it off the coast and form waves.
541. ryang
Hello Cane....check my blog.
Here are a couple of more views of heat content.

April 21,2005



April 21,2007




Finally here is part of what made 2005 such a remarkable year.

Extremely warm SST'S on August 21 2005.



T-MINUS 963 HRS 45 MINS TO HURRICANE SEASON
so SST's are more less the same as they were at this time in 2005?
Caribbian is Piping this year compared to 05. I have been noticing 200MB anticyclones this year in the Lower West Atlantic and Caribbian. Have to see if those stick around 23, could be very active in the Carib.
Caribbian and the Bahamas are actually higher than 05. Conversly the MDR is colder than 05. Personally I don't like to use 05 as a reference, I throw out the Highest and Lowest number and go from there.
2005 featured the warmest Sea Surface Temperatures ever recorded across the atlantic basin.
SST'S play a significant role indeed in development of a tropical cyclone but there's a host of other factors that also have to be in place in order for it to flurish.

Adrian's Weather
chessrascal if possible please minimize that huge pic.The blog is stretched.Thanks
I feel as if I am chatting with a textbook 23, what's up? At years end, yes, 2005 had the highest. So far in 2007 there are areas that are above 2005 at this same period in time.
The blog is stretched?
Yea hopefully we will have a mean TROF set-up shop of the eastcoast and everything will get turned out to sea.Sterring currents should slowly start revealing themselves in the coming weeks.

Adrian's Weather
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 8:47 PM EDT on April 21, 2007.

The blog is stretched?

Yes that's why you have to scroll across just to read a sentence.
2005..Atlantic Season..
Posted By: StormJunkie at 6:58 PM CDT on April 21, 2007.

640 x 480 is always a good dimension to use...


Don't even use the dumb Image button; type the following in (use the second for larger images; the browser automaticallly resizes the height to the correct number; I SO hate messed-up images that are not sized proportionally):



Very easy to type and remember (the arrows are the comma and period keys, with Shift pressed).
I am not experiencing that 23!
Cool movie patrap!!!
nice video patrap of 2005 season
Evening Bama, great to see you ☺
Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:51 AM GMT on April 22, 2007.

Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 8:47 PM EDT on April 21, 2007.

The blog is stretched?

Yes that's why you have to scroll across just to read a sentence.

sorry bout that but i dont have to scroll over
Niether do I Chess! 640 width is a normal width. I do not understand why he was having that issue. 640 width is standard, which that pic you posted was.
The wave train is starting

hey kris

wassup ?
not much
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 12:46 AM GMT on April 22, 2007.

I feel as if I am chatting with a textbook 23, what's up? At years end, yes, 2005 had the highest. So far in 2007 there are areas that are above 2005 at this same period in time.


LOL
kinda quiet tonight. I guess after the low E of Fla spun down everyone decided to go out tonight.

The drought is killing us here in the Caymans. Can't wait for the rains

Adrian does take his weather seriously but seems to know his stuff
How bad is it?
Oh yeah--Adrian,STL,Levi,and Patrap are some of the smartest non-featured bloggers.
Real bad.No rain since November last year

I have a 17000 gallon cistern underneath my garage to water the lawn and it has been empty now for a month. City water has chlorine and the plants hate it. Barely keeps them alive

Today was 87F with a hot dry wind out of the S
Tried a few holes of golf but called it quits after 9 !
There can be dry winds in the Caymans?You're an island,right?As in surrounded by water?
We are 3 islands. I live on the largest ( Grand Cayman-- all of 76 sq miles )

And yes, the wind can be very hot and dry when it is out of the South. Comes up from the equator. No moisture at all this time of year.Later on after June etc it becomes very muggy and humid but not now

Like the hot breath of a giant !
Pretty much bone dry everywhere but especially in the central and W Caribbesn

Interesting.
According to this, the western Caribbean is actually more moist than average (lower numbers indicate moisture air):



The trend has been similar to shear - falling off to below normal levels, from above normal levels at the start of the year.
Things are getting mroe conducive-related to average- for development as we get closer to the season.Very ominous,we'll need to see if it continues.
Typical for Nov to May. Once the rains begin then we start wishing for them to stop.
The tropics are very unique in that way.One day searing heat the next 4 inches of rain with your glasses fogging up when you step out of the car. Sometimes it feels like someone threw a wet balnket on you !
STL

I guess more moist is relative. The water vapour image says it all.
More moist than average;the average is low.
Kris

water temps are getting up there already. usually I don't go in my pool until late May or June because the cold fronts make it too cold for swimming. However, it is already in the mid 80's and comfortable for swimming.The sea around us is in the low to mid 80's as well. Remains to be seen how the shear and steering currents set up
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 8:46 PM EDT on April 21, 2007.

I feel as if I am chatting with a textbook 23, what's up? At years end, yes, 2005 had the highest. So far in 2007 there are areas that are above 2005 at this same period in time.

Posted By: weatherboykris at 10:25 PM EDT on April 21, 2007.

Oh yeah--Adrian,STL,Levi,and Patrap are some of the smartest non-featured bloggers.


I wasn't saying that in a complimentary way kris!
You took what I said out of context.
Cane

Some of us post for the fun of it and others post to exhibit their meteorlogical knowledge !!.
LOL
I said it in response to:

Posted By: kmanislander at 2:24 AM GMT on April 22, 2007.

Adrian does take his weather seriously but seems to know his stuff

He posts for the fun of it,kman.He just has a different style of writing.Everyone does.Patrap does,Rand did,I do.
Agreed Kris

Some of the posters are actually qualified in the field. Others, like me, have just followed tropical weather for decades and acquired a feel for the subject combined with the history that goes with years of watching systems come and go. We all post for fun, but some post in greater detail than others
Hmmm.. the waters in the Carriean and around the Bahamas are wamrer than in 05 and the mdr is colder than in 05 ...if this continues.... dont u guys agree this is worse.. Like dont waves have a better chance of getting into the carrieban and the bahamas if they stay weak .... but then when they arrive...they have a better chance of exploding..due to high temps ...what do u guys think?
There are a lot of intellingent people on here. I learned a ton last year. Makes this blog addictive
the Central and Western Caribbean have actually gotten a lot less dry than it was a week ago. The SAL has kind of cleared out of the Caribbean and intensified in the Central and Eastern Atlantic.

It's still too early to tell how strong the SAL will be and where it will be strongest.
HurricaneRoman I think it really depends on where the ole bermuda high sets up for the curveature. That combined with the fronts coming out of the states. I'm probably wrong though
well we are gonna have to wait n get stormtops predictions. LOL I hope he tuned up his crop duster this year for all the stroms hes gonna have to fly into LOL
haha SH ....I forgot about stormtop and his outrageous perdictions..... He amuses me at least.....
Adrian (hurricane23) is very knowledgeable, occasionally tries to act like she knows everything though, im not sure whether or not its intentional, overall she knows her stuff and is a good asset to this blog in my opinion
lol stormhank, I was just commenting on StormTop a few days ago, that guy is a riot always telling people they're going to have to eat crow, good stuff
I tend to agree with that Bama...Wait and see....

Anywho, y'all have a good night!

alot of people say they dont like stormtop but it seems to me most love it whenever he stops in. The blog starts moving real fast when he does.
i was arguing that the SAL was going to be weaker a couple weeks ago but I might've been wrong given what we are currently seeing, could this be signifying that we are seeing the Westerlies kick in?
603. ryang
StoryoftheCane Hurricane23 is a man!
Thats when we start getting those 1000 post blogs. Of course the threat of a storm contibutes too.
Oh I live for the days StormTop comes on, he cracks me up, hes one of those guys that just unintentionally get funny when they are riled up, and he is as arrogant as anybody ive ever met so that adds to the comedy
Adrian (hurricane23) is very knowledgeable, occasionally tries to act like she knows everything though, im not sure whether or not its intentional, overall she knows her stuff and is a good asset to this blog in my opinion

ROTFL! Adrian is not a she... the name itself should tell you that (baby names).
really? last year everybody corrected me when i was calling 23 a man and told me it was a she, my bad
hey i have heard Adrian as a male and female name, honest mistake, how are you going to know if no one tells ya?
Oh, that? Some people were making fun of him, going so far as to say that he was a girl who stole stuff that other people posted.
not like I can see what 23 looks like, all I have is the name to guess by, its not like the name is Mike or something lol
who is the girl on here.... there is a popular girl on here..that everyone thinks shes a guy...I cant remember who it is tho
Oh ok, well that is probably where I got mistaken, when I get on here I dont go back past the last 50 comments so sometimes Ill end up losing half the conversations lol
SAL stand for saharan air layer? Is that the dust?
here is a link that defines Adrian as a boy and girl name

"Adrian is a very popular female first name and a very popular surname (source: 1990 U.S. Census). Displayed below is the baby name popularity trend for the girl's name Adrian. Click here to compare Adrian with related baby names."

baby names
TSR will be out with their new update on how active this season will be on may 4th I think. and NOAA around may 15th. I wonder if their numbers will go up? seems to be alot of factors coming together for active season. Im guessing 17 9 4.. anyone else got any predictions?
Adrian is a guy. I spoke to him once on the phone
i know, im just justifying my reasoning for falsely assuming otherwise
i started with 22, but after seeing the month of April ive gone down to 19
Slow night....baby names.
HR

You may be thinking of Chicklit
Or there was another popular one who lived on a farm somewhere down South, can't remember her name now but very pleasant
as long as the SAL and shear are conducive we'll see a higher than normal amount of intense storms this year
Sorry about that Kris! I just feel 23 has lost his gift of the gab, persay! Most everyone knows predictions now are guesses at best. But, anyone that wishes to make an educated opinion come the start of hurricane season had better be researching what is happening now and for the next month, some like I, choose to discuss it. Quite frankly, I really have a problem with someone coming into anothers website and personal blog and soliciting people to come to thier website! I don't know if Dr. Masters has a problem with it but, it is just ethics to me!
slow night till June or later
Although mid May can start being busy with " blob " watching LOL
somebody give me a quick definition of SAL please? I very rusty from the winter and need some refreshers..
Saharan Air Layer
Canewhisperer just wait for all the sites people start posting on here during a storm. Has to be around 20
CaneWhisperer, that is the definition of spamming and if it bothers you hit the "!". Its not that big of a deal though, I mean if you like the site then go to it, if not then don't.
ok....so is the SAL a measure of the african dust or what?
Posted By: Bamatracker at 3:37 AM GMT on April 22, 2007.
Canewhisperer just wait for all the sites people start posting on here during a storm. Has to be around 20


yeah its annoying
some of the sites are pretty good....I got a great of good links from them. Links I wouldn't have found had I not went to those sites
Storyof the cane.. why did u drop your numbers from 22 to 19?
and I agree with the lost the gift of gab, he advertises his comments like his meteorology degree inspired his reasoning even though a lot of the comments are blatantly retrieved from other sources, at least in part
Worse thing during the storms are the wishcasters that look for any and every excuse to say the storm is going to a cat 5 knocking on their doorsteps in two days
storyofthecane are you confused now? just going to play it safe huh? LOL
everything is just so darn dry right now and im still not 100% on how the shear will look this year, i think 22 might be a bit too bold
where u from Story n Bama? Im in fla panhandle area near ga/ ala borders
good explanation of SAL

Link
Im in mobile...but more importantly 146 feet above sea level.
check your mail bama
Lived in Central Florida 2 months ago but just moved to the West Coast.
thanks Kman!
i think wishcaster needs to be banned from being used on here. it always turns into a fight and is always blown out of proportion.
Bama

I am 7 feet above sea level and 500 feet back from the shore. Thats why 6 feet of storm surge from Ivan went through the downstairs of my home !!
146 is good, trust me LOL
Well you have the wishcasters then you have those who just figure out you hot button and try to pick a fight. I dont understand it but some just like pickin' fights.
its easy to see the difference between those of us that are wishcasting and those of us that are simply trying to make a prediction, and more often than not those just making predictions are called wishcasters from what Ive seen on here.
Oh yea...I'm always going to live down south but never lower than 40 feet around Mobile bay. I dont want to mess with storm surge.
but you've also got to understand there are a lot of people on here that get very defensive and sensitive anytime someone says anything remotely close to the possibility of a storm being a monster. The people going "oh this storm is going to be huge and kill everyone. I hope this hits a populated area" are the wishcasters and the people I agree with getting angry with. But most of the time it is people saying something in the lines of "this storm has a potential to reach Cat 5 if the conditions remain in tact" and people attack them like theres no tomorrow with the wishcaster comments.
Some early signs are telling me 22 is not to far fetched Story! Hold your predictions till the 2nd week of May! Things are going to start changing late next week, big pictures! West Coast Setup!
Well i guess you have to get into the definition of a wishcaster....but thats just too technical. Sooner or later there will be some brats on here who are going to fight and the rest of us will be annoyed. Part of the package!!!
Posted By: HurricaneRoman at 3:24 AM GMT on April 22, 2007.

who is the girl on here.... there is a popular girl on here..that everyone thinks shes a guy...I cant remember who it is tho


Skyepony.
And there are also those on here that are passionate about seeing these things in person and getting to have an up close and personal experience with a true act of God with video and pictures and what not. They want to see a strong storm to get better content, that doesnt make them wishcasters, they can wish all day long, doesnt mean its going to make the storm do anything different then it already was going to do..
last year the Wishcasters seemed to fall into two groups-- those who kept predicting a Westerly course regardless of atmospheric conditions and steering winds and those who believed every "blob" was going to develop into something major
well, i dont have a degree in meterology but been studying hurricanes and tropical weather for last 20 years or so. I have learned alot about them and also thank all of you for the links and info you have given me since Ive been coming here last 2 yrs. always appreciated :) by the way my names Hank
as opposed to the "hatecasters" who just automatically know every storm will never intensify and always stear away from land lol, its "hatecasters" and "wishcasters" that make this blog go round. One of us is going to be right 50% of the time.
I dont have a problem with it as long as the respect the storms. They are too powerful and beautiful to disrespect. Living in the path of a potential hurricane is something we live with. I dont mind it...its exciting and scary when a storm heads toward me. But I just wont down play it or blow it up...respect it.
Storyofthecane those are just wishful thinkers.
well guys I have a golf game in the morning so I am out of here for now. Nice chatting with you all.
Till the next time take it easy
night kman!!! good luck
well Gn guys thanks for chats. be on tomorrow. have a great night
I think there are just those of us that try to get an early jump at trying to predict what the blobs will do, and those of us that like to play it safe and are afraid to be wrong that just wait and see what it will do, kinda like an NHC approach. Nothing wrong with either of them, just the ones that try to predict early might give you an earlier idea on what to expect, and sometimes, like meteorologists, they are wrong. Good night everyone.
night all!!!! Have a great night!
Everyone's leaving?goodnight
Watch the Discrovery Channel...there talking about hurricanes and future hurricanes
ill be popping in every once in awhile, do you agree with my last comment? i want to know if im alone in my assumptions.
No,you aren't alone in them.What you said is true.
Thanks for the tip Roman,but I'm going to bed.I'll look for a repeat showing tomorrow.Actually,I think I may have already seen the show,if it's what I think it is.Goodniht everyone.
g'night Kris, my Discovery Channel is playing "Green: The new Red, White and Blue" is that what you're talking about Roman? I think West and East Coast get different programming cuz of the News and such.
Storyof the cane,
No you are not wrong and I do wish more in here would get that understanding if you know what I mean....

As for me I take great looks at the Blob and try to get a heads up on it so I am always ready if they come here or not... Then when it gets close then I go from there...

Just my 2 cents worth but may not be worth that if you know what I mean...

Taco:0)
i agree taco, and most of the time its good to take worst case scenario with anything, that way you are always prepared even if it turns out not to be that bad.
I agree with you on that one... I try not to get to mixed up with them because I made a prediction 1 time and was damn near run out of the blog and weatherunderground for good...
Some get so upset that I am always wrong and they are always right...

The fact that hurricane formation is unpredictable makes it absolutely silly that anyone would even get mad about someone attempting to make a prediction, no matter how right or wrong they may seem.

I would rather have 10 different predictions with 1 of them being right than 2 predictions with none being right. You need to be able to see different scenarios to formulate your own opinion and be aware of the possibility. Obviously, there are those exceptions where the predictions are way too early or impossible to formulate given the current circumstances, and those are the only instances where i believe predictions should not be made.

Good Morning.Its Sunday
It's a lovely Tropical sunrise at 11n 61 w

Its going to be another hot, dry day.

Anyboddy alse awake ??
Huh ! Bunch of sleepyheads........
Not sleepyheads, just got other things to do!
Oh ! I have lots to do as well. I'm just not doing them. LOL
Lengthy approval process holds back coastal restoration in Louisiana....Link
lengthy comment stretches the blog.
G morn Kris
I know,I'm just joking.
good morning,BTW.
Happy Earth Day to yall..3
Morning all...

Kris check your mail.
what the Bermuda high is doing right now??? and where it is and how strong it is right now????
Here is a good read on a new hurricane rating system written by Matt Rogers.

Here is the PDF version
Good Morning All.........
Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:24 AM EDT on April 22, 2007.

what the Bermuda high is doing right now??? and where it is and how strong it is right now????

Taz the bermuda high is something that cannot be predicted to weeks out so thoughts on were it might be during the heart of the season is pure speculation.In a few weeks we should begin to get some ideas on how things are setting up.Adrian
Morning all.

Interesting read Pat...

7 to 10 year approval process...lmao...I live in a great country, but sometimes we are pretty damn stupid...

Either we are staying in NO or not...If we stay then these projects should already have funding. If we are not, then the funding for the moving of a city should already be approved...

It makes you wonder...
Taz; true, the BH location in a few months will play a big factor in US vernerability as the season progresses.....Problem is, pursuant to your question, what are the best "links" which we can access for the daily location?
StormJunkie..some Food for thought and some history in one read...Link notice the date of the story. And note the author. Many need to know,.so goes SE Louisiana.So goes the nation.
Morning wmw,

There are quite a few good link all organized on one page here. Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data and more.

weathermanwannabe dont no where a good link would be at if i new where to find one



yawn LOL
Thanks.........
Here are a few links i use to moniter the highs location.

1-GFS from unisys
2-GFS from weather underground

For more models visit my model page at my website.SEE HERE
so if we had neutral in 2005 why did we see 28 name storms that year ?
+ 4 cat 5
23...So if I am reading these two links correctly; there is no BH in place yet off the coast?
Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:46 AM EDT on April 22, 2007.

so if we had neutral in 2005 why did we see 28 name storms that year ?

2 of a few factors the made 2005 an extreme event.

The atlantic basin saw the warmest SST'S ever recorded in its history and also very favorable conditions in place which ive never seen as they were when wilma went threw here incredible intensification.
Taz, I think some of the thinking is that weak La Nia to enso neutral conditions actually create a better environment for systems to form, as opposed to strong La Nia.
wmw, that shows there are actuall two highs right now. One on the left and one on the right.

This is one of the best pages for viewing models, IMHO because you get several of the best models. Just set to sea level pressure and hit the submit button.
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 9:49 AM EDT on April 22, 2007.

23...So if I am reading these two links correctly; there is no BH in place yet off the coast?

Yes its right of the coast bringing florida this extremely dry weather which infact looks to stay dry around here for atleast the next 5-7 days with no relief insight.
thanks



do you think we will see some in like that this year?
you no the navy site and the last name storm at 31L that year why did we not see 31 name storms?
This is most helpful; thank you...I'm off to Church...See everyone tommorow..
and 23 that is bad news too that will take a hurricane right in too FL like it did in 2004
La Nia is being forecast for this season Taz. It looks like it may get stronger later in the season.

As for the high and east coast troughs and ULLs, it is wait and see.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:57 AM EDT on April 22, 2007.

and 23 that is bad news too that will take a hurricane right in too FL like it did in 2004

Taz i cant answer that right now but some of the long range models due indicate a stronger high this year.Once we get into mid-may we will get a better idea.
cool stronger La Nia means more rain for me this winter this winter is has been so dry this is my last strom of the winter it looks like


well in 2005 we had a 28 name storms and 4 cat 5 and i had a vary wet winter that year this year we olny saw 10 name storms and i had a all most bone dry winter with with vary little rain this winter this wait in tell june


i hop this stronger La Nia gives me a lot of rain this winter
Mail for Adrian.
Wait a month Taz.Then we'll have a much better idea.
A "Mod" on Day 3?This should be serious.

Good Morning everyone....Hard to believe hurricane season is almost a month away.... the 05 season feels like it just happened a couple months ago
It could always feel that way.Unforgettable year,that was.
Isn't it funny though,that that would've been a typical season in the western north Pacific?
Anyone here?
Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:03 AM CDT on April 22, 2007.

cool stronger La Nia means more rain for me this winter this winter is has been so dry this is my last strom of the winter it looks like


LOL... You mean El Nino, right?
Why'd you repost what Taz said?
Huh?

Then how would anybody know what I was talking about?

Like this:

LOL... You mean El Nino, right?

If you saw a comment with just the above line, how would you ever know what it was referring to (unless Taz's comment was immediately prior to it and it was the only subject on hand)?
Just my two cent on this...

If a response to a person is with in a few posts and depending on how fast the blog is moving a "Taz-" can do the trick. Otherwise reposting quotes works well...
One reason 2005 was so bad for the Atlantic was the overall lower sea level pressure...the high wasn't so strong.

EH2R had a most interesting update recently. For those that hadn't followed his freakishly accuarte predictions, simply put, he takes pictures of the sun setting & compared the size & what not to determine many facters about the atmosphere currently & for the next season. Here's his latest update..

First some news: North American weather especially the US Northeast Coast eerily similar to 2005, as I recall cooler at this time of the year.

WD April 18, 2007

The following graph and caption helped synthesize 2007 Northern Hemisphere temperature projection

Click on image for a bigger version


any1 know when the NHC will issue its predictions for this season?
skypony so if I understand your post correctly the author is saying the indications are that this years pressure may stay lower than normal...like in 2005?
any1 know when the NHC will issue its predictions for this season?

END OF MAY
everyones having a siesta!
image

can somone tell me what all that activity off of Africa is??
New blog up - that is where everybody is (click on the Blogs link at the top of the page under Features to view the blog index and the most recent blogs).
really?