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2006: warmest year on record in the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:18 PM GMT on January 09, 2007

The United States recorded its warmest year ever in 2006, according to today's report issued by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The 2006 annual average temperature was 55�F, 2.2�F (1.2�C) above the 20th Century mean and 0.07�F (0.04�C) warmer than the previous warmest year, 1998. The NCDC had estimated that 2006 would be the 3rd warmest year in U.S. history last month, but an unusually warm December pushed 2006 to the top. It was the warmest December on record in the Northeast U.S., and the 4th warmest December for the country as a whole. Only 1939, 1957, and 1933 had warmer Decembers. However, the statistics partially hide the extraordinary warmth that began on December 10 and continued until January 6, when New York City tied their all-time record January high temperature of 72�. During the month ending January 6, the Northeast was 14 �F above average, and the U.S. as a whole was 7� above average.



No cause for alarm?
"No cause for alarm. Enjoy it while you have it," said Mike Halpert, head of forecast operations at the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, in a story run by CNN just before New York City's record warmth. The story continued, "The weather is prone to short-term fluctuations, and forecasters said the mild winter does not necessarily mean global warming is upon us. In fact, the Plains have been hit by back-to-back blizzards in the past two weeks." True, the weather across most of the U.S. has finally cooled off this week, and the rest of January should have near average temperatures. And I agree that one warm month of winter in one country in its warmest year in 112 years of record keeping is not evidence of global warming, particularly when there is a moderate El Nino episode going on. An El Nino can lead to significantly warmer winters in the U.S.--exceptional December warmth has also occurred in 1877, 1939, and 1957, all of which were moderate or strong El Nino years. I've plotted up a comparison of temperatures in December of 1957 vs 2006 (Figure 1), and one can see that the unusual warmth of December 2006 does have historical precedent. Taking a look at average U.S. December temperatures for all years in the historical record (Figure 2), we see that these temperatures do show quite a bit of noise, and there is no evidence of dramatic warming in the past 30 years.


Figure 1. Comparison of the departure of average temperature from normal for December 1957 (the the second warmest December on record in the U.S.) and December 2006. Image credit: NOAA.

Figure 2. Average December temperatures for the U.S. from 1895 to 2006. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Rolling thirteens with the weather dice
Take a look at the trend December temperatures in Figure 2. It shows that the average temperature has warmed a little more than 1� F in the past century. It may not seem like much, but that is enough to significantly load the dice in favor of warmer winters. Six of the ten warmest U.S. winters on record have occurred in the past 15 years. Month long spells where winter is seemingly absent--as also occurred in January 2006, the warmest January in U.S. history--have become more common. Keep in mind that the weather of January of 2006--which blew away the previous record for warmest January by a huge margin (2� F)--occurred during a La Nina year, not an El Nino. What concerns me most is that the warming trend is not isolated to the U.S. The 1� F rise in temperatures the past century has occurred world-wide, thanks to global warming, and the temperature increase has been much higher in the Arctic--something the climate models have predicted would occur as a telltale sign of the human-caused addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. In the past, an exceptionally warm winter month in the U.S., like December 1957 (Figure 3), was offset by much cooler weather elsewhere, such as we see in Alaska, Greenland, and northern Siberia. However, December 2006 had no such offsetting cool temperatures--it was more than 1� C above average over almost all the land areas of the Northern Hemisphere north of 40� north latitude (Figure 4). Colorado, whose three blizzards have been widely cited as evidence that winter has been severe elsewhere, still recorded temperatures about 1� C above normal in December 2006.


Figure 3. Global departure of temperature from average for December 1957, the second warmest December on record in the U.S. Note that the exceptionally warm temperatures over the U.S. are offset by much cooler weather elsewhere, such as in Alaska, Greenland, and northern Siberia.

Figure 4. Global departure of temperature from average for December 2006. Note that the almost the entire globe north of 40� north latitude was more than 1� C above average, with large areas more than 6� C (11� F) above average.

All this unusual heat in the northern high latitudes is going to significantly slow down the formation of ice over the Arctic Ocean this winter. Furthermore, the lack of the usual snows across the Arctic may allow the snowpack to melt much earlier than normal in spring, resulting in more record warmth in the Arctic this summer. Arctic sea ice coverage, already down 20% in the past 20 years, is likely to continue to shrink in 2007. As sea ice melts in response to rising temperatures, it creates a positive feedback loop: melting ice means more of the dark ocean is exposed, allowing it to absorb more of the sun's energy, further increasing air temperatures, ocean temperatures, and ice melt. The observed changes in the ice cover (Figure 5) indicate that this feedback is now starting to take hold, and the weather dice will continue to get more loaded towards rolling higher numbers in 2007. I do think we're due for a cold winter next year--part of the warmth of the past two winters is probably due to the normal random fluctuations in the weather, and Nature has been rolling twelves more often than snake eyes of late. However, we're not going to see snake eyes too much more. December's weather in the Northeast U.S. may have been a case of the weather dice coming up thirteen--weather not seen on the planet since before the Ice Age began, 118,000 years ago. The weather dice will start rolling an increasing number of thirteens in coming years, and an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summertime by 2040 is a very real possibility, as indicated by computer modelling studies published in the Journal of Geophysical Research last month. This possibility is cause for alarm, and I, for one, had a lot of trouble enjoying the phenomenally warm weather of the past month here in Michigan.


Figure 5. Percent change in coverage of Arctic sea ice in Decembers from 1979-2006, compared to the 1979-2000 average. The Polar Ice Cap has shrunk by about 15% in December, and 20% in summer, over the past 20 years. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Check out the realclimate.org post on this winter's anomalous warmth.

I'll be back Thursday afternoon or Friday with a look at the status of El Nino. Will it still be around during hurricane season?

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The fact is,unless Bill Gray is in disguise here...there are no proffesional meteorologists at WU
good point STL,I liked your blog too
One thing that will definately have a big impact on the average temperatures is the fact that many winters in the 70s were very cold and many winters in the 2000s have been very warm; this means that when the climate normal period is changed, it will result in an increase in winter temperatures for many areas (although, the 30 year normal is mainly used for individual stations for day-to-day climate normals, such as the normal high/low for today being 37/21, this might be 40/25 or something for the 1981 to 2010 period; there are also normals for the entire period of record).
We saw it already CB.Thanks
be back later
I'm back
I'll be back
goodnight CB
Things are looking very interesting for So Cal.

While this weather system is not expected to produce a lot of
precipitation... it will likely bring very low snow levels to the
region. Initially... snow levels are expected to lower to between
4000 and 5000 feet by Thursday afternoon... lowest across northern
mountain ranges. Snow levels are expected to rapidly lower to around
1500 feet late Thursday night into Friday morning... with snow
flurries possibly down to 1000 feet. While any snow accumulation in
the foothills and valleys is expected to be minimal... the mountains
could experience a few inches of new snow with this very cold and
unsettled weather pattern. Major roadways that could be impacted by
the very low snow levels include Interstate 5 from the Grapevine to
Santa Clarita... Interstate 14 through the Soledad Canyon... Highway
33 in Ventura County...
523. jeffB
Patrap, I'm happy that you were able to make lots of money with your Hale-Bopp photos, but look at the link I posted. McNaught reached a lower magnitude, i.e. a higher brightness, than Hale-Bopp ever did. But your photos of Hale-Bopp will remain more impressive, because that comet appeared against a dark sky. Just look at the number of background stars in your picture, and compare it to the lack of stars in any of the McNaught images. Also, I don't know if you still have a record of the exposure you used for Hale-Bopp, but I'll guarantee it was longer than the 1/2 to 1/20 sec people have been using for McNaught. I caught a recognizable (but blurry -- no tripod) image of McNaught with a 1/40 sec exposure at f/5.6! That's bright!
Cyclone, if you want to build your tunnels you'll have to do this:
Get a formal education in climatology or some other weather-based degree.
Become a graduate student, (and you may have to become a professor before performing the next step,)
Write a grant proposal, and get funded.
Build a working model, and evaluate its effectiveness and impacts.
Get published in a peer-reviewed journal.
Bring it to the attention of the politicians who can fund it, and while you're at it, convince the US to break several international treaties barring weather modification.
THEN you can build your tunnels.

You can't just talk in a forum and write e-mails. That's the sign of somebody that does not know how to get something done, or isn't willing to do the work that it takes to do it. Who's going to follow somebody like that?
Nobody.

If you really want to accomplish this, you've got to do what it takes. And sitting here going on and on about it isn't what it takes.
hello caffiene
Yesterday 55F and today 120kph winds. Weather is wrecked. It's all the comet's fault...

My own comet...
hello orion if youre still there.
Hi anvil,
Still there, on and off..

Somebody know about comets? Why is it that on my picture the tail is long and narrow while it is rather triangular on other picts I've seen?

jeffB:
I took the pict with my wife's compact Kodak, set to 'green smile' ;-)
Guess it had to be something like 1/60th and f6.3, largest opening available at 3x zoom. I was very lucky the sun was blocked by the heavy clouds.
Good morning,

El Nio conditions are likely to continue through March-May 2007.


Most of the statistical and coupled models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), indicate that SST anomalies are near their peak and that decreasing anomalies are likely during February-May 2007 (Fig. 5). Recent observed trends in the upper ocean tend to support those forecasts. Decreasing upper-ocean heat content in the central equatorial Pacific has been progressing east in association with the upwelling portion of the most recent Kelvin wave. In the absence of any further Kelvin wave activity, the upper-ocean heat content should return to near average in a few months. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook, given the resurgence of MJO activity in late December 2006. It is possible that the enhanced precipitation phase of the MJO, which is currently entering the western tropical Pacific, might trigger a more persistent pattern of cloudiness and precipitation over the anomalously warm waters of the central equatorial Pacific during the next several weeks. If that occurs, then the equatorial easterlies over the central Pacific will likely weaken possibly leading to the initiation of a fifth Kelvin wave.

CPC UPDATE HERE
It too early for nonsense...The Big Storm Gathering in The west is going to Cause problems Come Fri-Sun..GFSx Link
If a Fractional..Craig Super cant do it.It cant an will never be done.Quit torturing the Blog.Its not pretty to watch...
Joe Bastardi says Winter is going to come back with a vengeance...

"Those who think that winter 2006-2007 is going to remain mild are in for a shock," said Bastardi. "Winter is likely to come with a vengeance. A week from now, we'll start seeing truly cold air across much of the country, and we expect this change to last."

For more visit accuweather.
Over all they expect that a Kelvin Wave may spark up warm anomalies in the coming weeks.

Visit here for current conditions and expert discussions.
Well Good Morning everyone. I just thought I'd see what everyone thinks about Elnino and if it might be leaving? There's not to many people on much anymore not like hurricane season i really like reading what everyone says. Hope everyone has a safe day. I'll be sitting back reading everyone entries.
Buster, everytime some gives you genuine advice to help your idea along you brush it off your shoulder.

Serouisly, no one here can help you. We cant get you funded even if we did support your idea. So spamming here is not helping your idea, its only making people more resistant to it.

So if you really want to try and get the tunnels built then you should do what caffinehog says.

"Get a formal education in climatology or some other weather-based degree. (Best would be a degree in climatology AND some other meteorogical degree)
Become a graduate student, (and you may have to become a professor before performing the next step,)
Write a grant proposal, and get funded.
Build a working model, and evaluate its effectiveness and impacts. (Not a computer model, a full scale model)
Get published in a peer-reviewed journal.
Bring it to the attention of the politicians who can fund it, and while you're at it, convince the US to break several international treaties barring weather modification.
THEN you can build your tunnels."
cyclone keeps talking about tunnels someone said that there was no basis in fact behind these tunnels but in fact there is:

See
Link
It's been brought up snotly, and they're almost completely different then buster's idea.
Well Good Morning everyone. I just thought I'd see what everyone thinks about Elnino and if it might be leaving? There's not to many people on much anymore not like hurricane season i really like reading what everyone says. Hope everyone has a safe day. I'll be sitting back reading everyone entries.

There are a lot more people during the hurricane season.If this were August, we'd be using a page per half-hour.
Believe it or not, Dr. Masters actually did a blog on... tunnels... last year. Link

Needless to say, that is not where cyclonebuster got his idea from (he says that his idea is different).
It is different.
If I'm correct, his tunnels are horizontal.
catastropheadjuster~ Long time... I think El Nio has peaked, it's heading toward neutral. Interesting is that a little more than 1/2 the models think after it gets to or near nuetral that it will go right back up into el nio for the worst of the cane season. I find this hard to buy at this time since the long range ENSO models aren't any good. Last years consensis of La Nia for 'cane season never panned & the consensis several months ago was ENSO wasn't moving toward neutral during the winter & spring.
Yes,Skye they have been inconsistent.
Yes a Kelvin wave might spark up warm anomalies in the coming weeks but overall neutral conditions are quite possible during the heart of the season.Lets see how things pan out in the coming months as we still got a ways to go before having to worry about tropical systems across the atlantic basin.
hello everyone
How's this for a persistant weather pattern?
Link
Who knew there was a NWS office in Guam anyway?
Hi thunder2
Been a Weather office since WW-2 in Guam..
Blast the weather. Stood half an hour in the storm waiting for the clouds to part... No joy, no comet :-(

No answer to my 'comet' question either. I'd better talk about tunnels. At least they're popular...
Look Carefully at the Marker Bottom..Fathers USMC Collection from WW-2, Navy Has Had an office there since the War. 6
What was the question Orionrider?
Why is it that on my picture the tail is long and narrow while it is rather triangular on other picts I've seen?

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/o/orionRider/7.jpg
thanks Patrap
You were afraid I would really talk about tunnels, eh?
Thank you Skyepony & Weatherboykris, Skyepony are they more less saying it will probaly be a season like last year. With them saying el nino will be back during the worst of hurricane season? Or am I not understanding. When you'll are talking about neutral does that mean it's gonna be a calm season? I don't mean to ask to many questions I'm just trying to learn so I can understand more.So when hurricane season does come I can understand what everyone is saying. Thanks for taking time to explain this to me. I'm learning.
We could see something like in the early 90s, when there were multiple El Nino events in succession (also, notice that the 2005-2006 La Nina is not official, so the recent trend is in fact like the early 90s).
On the other hand, there is an ever-increasing area of cool anomalies building up below the surface:

catastrophe;When talking about El Nino,there are three descriptions meteorologists use.They are:
El Nino(Also called "warm conditions"):El Nino's are characterized by warmer than normal SSTs in the central Pacific near the equator.They typically decrease Atlantic hurricane activity.
Neutral:This means that SSTs are near normal in the Central Pacific near the Equator.Neutral conditions don't enhance Atlantic hurricane activity,but they don't inhibit it either.
La Nina(also called "Cold Conditions):La Ninas have colder than normal SSTs in the Central Pacific near the Equator and typically enhance Atlantic Hurricane Activity.
I've noticed that,STL.It is in the same spot as where the current positive anomalies originated from.I don't think we'll see a switch back to El Nino once we're nuetral.
Just differnt days..the comet..or a comet tends to go diffuse suddenly ..or Brighten as material is Ablated as it nears the sun..Plus Its all relative to the point of when and Where the pic is taken.My early pics of Hale-Bopp in 97 were terrible.Then on April 7th..I was in right place at right time.And got 24 out of 36 sellable prints.
But planning was good.Was Moonlesss night.Cold front had slip thru day before..No clouds..Dark sky site.9
you took that,Patrap?
Ill do a Blog with those Negs digitized as the 10 year anniversary of Hale-Bopp nears...The scanned ones dont do it justice at all.
Yes Kris..plus 35 others on that roll..From 2 sites on western shore of Lake Ponchatrain...
Heres the one before the one below on the roll..7
The glow off in the background..is the Baton Rouge Sky-glow.
tunnels are not popular!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Later in the roll...9
And one from the front of the roll..was neat to be alone and getting the shots.6
Best I could capture with the Binocular Camera yesterday of Comet McNAught 6
Weatherboykris & MichealSTL Thank you. So if everything pans out right it ought to be a normal season. I know everyone would love to see one like last year. But you never know it might be cause they really missed it last year on the prediction. But it was nice to have a quite season. I know it's way to early to predict this year I was just trying to get around about ideal. But don't it depend on where the High is at in the Alantic Ocean to?
NHC Tropical Models Overview...Link
well,if only it were that simple,catastrophe.For one, we are in the warm AMO cycle, which means that even in neutral conditions,all else being equal,we'd have an above average year.Also,there are other factors which include:
Saharan Dust
Non-El Nino induced Wind shear
SSTs in the Atlantic
The relative humidity of the atmosphere not related to Saharan dust
Ambient Sea Level pressures
And instability in the atmosphere.
Last year, even though we were in the warm AMO which should have caused above normal activity:
Ambient Sea level pressures were higher than normal.
an El Nino started.
There was a lot of Saharan dust.
Instability was below normal.
Relative Humidity was below normal
SSTs were near to only slightly above normal.
Non-El Nino wind shear was unusually high.
So, last year,even though practically all conditions were unfavorable for development, we still had a near normal season,which is a good example of just how influential the AMO is to seasonal activity.
Some say that the AMO does not exist and the reduction in activity was due to pollution (which also coincided with a temporary halt in global warming).
Regualr model overview...Link
Kind of old, but still useful.
We'll have to wait and see if activity ever slows down in the next two decades.There's really no other way to see one way or another.
Something else I noticed about last year, a lot of African waves had trouble separating from the ITCZ
Thanks for the answer, Patrap.
Love the photo between the trees (17:52)! Really gorgeous.
Catastrophe, to learn about TCs, start here.Some of the abreviations, such as WADL aren't used very often at Wunderground though.Link
That comet looks cool
I Read something more interesting than tunnels to kill hurricanes. Some kind of a hydrophilic powder that can suck enormous amounts of water and precipitate as a solid to the sea, where it dissolves harmlessly. Only a 'reasonable' amount of the stuff would suffice to tame a large storm, I think it was a few thousand tons (!) dropped by a couple hundred planes over the eyewall.
Dresden got much more from 2000 bombers back in 1944, so it is at least feasible, if only the magical stuff can be cheaply produced in large quantities...

Do you know of this and is there a link with more info, or was it a hoax?
Where can I find information about genuine studies to kill or deviate hurricanes?
the book hurricane watch is great,orion
It has great descriptions of all the computer models, modification theories,recon history,and a great section on forecasting Andrew
i was wondering were CB getts his idea for tunnels
They're his or her own.He says he was mentally and physically hurt by andrew and wants to make sure it never happens to anyone else.
even if the idea is flawed, it's a nice sentiment.
mentally and physically hurt? It gets really annoying when he keeps going on about tunnels, we've all heard it before
who knows?Maybe some top level NOAA scientist will read this blog,get interested in the idea, and 20 years from now we'll all be saying what a genius he is.(CB,not the NOAA scientist)
who knows?Maybe some top level NOAA scientist will read this blog,get interested in the idea, and 20 years from now we'll all be saying what a genius he is.(CB,not the NOAA scientist)
whats the chance of that happening?
I don't know.But still, it could happen.
CB could use his tunnels and this
if it does later in the years i'll eat my hat
Someone should submit these ideas to Mythbusters
yeah see what they say
And just how are they going to bust the myth,snotly?It's not like they can make a hurricane in a swimming pool.LOL
they can make a hurricane in a bottle
They'd have to try it on a real storm,and there's 2 problems with that:
(1):in all likelyhood, they don't have the money.
(2)If the thing they tested it on bombed just before landfall and did a ton of damage, they'd need all the money they have for the lawyers.
true
Thanks weatherboykris, looks fascinating.

I found another article about the polymer powder. What do you think? It sounds safer than messing with sea currents:

http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/hurricane-season/dn1101
Marching on New Orleans City hall..this hour..was live on Tv here..Link
i can't beleive that 21,500 troops are getting sent into iraqi
i can't belive that 21,500 more troops are getting sent into iraq
Weatherboykris thanks for the info and taking time to tell me this stuff. Have a great day. I'll be sitting back reading about what you'll are saying. I hope i didn't impose.
not at all,take part in what we're talking about.
It's not like any of us are proffesional meteorologists.Although I think there are a few college students studying to be meteorologists.
Well here in Alabama the weather has been really nice.Got up this morning and frost was on the ground but it has warmed up real nice. I guess it's a wait and see with El nino?
Hard to say
I think there's alot of really smart people that come to this site. Last hurricane season I would come on here and read everyday and learn alot. Everyone has there on opinion.
The CFS model mean, shown hereLink
has been calling for anosedive since late December,but that has failed to happen thus far.The models have actually been terrible for the past year or so at predicting El Nino.
catastropheadjuster~ Yeah, the high has alot to do with what may hit land. So many factors.

The CPC predicts a return to neutral by March-May. Doesn't forcast any farther then that & has low forecast confidence as well. They are probibly as weary of their long term model preformance as we are. Like Michael pointed out the cold spot just below the surface, that's our short term cetainty, beyond that much & it's largely a guess at this point.
Yeah, what strikes me the most is the model spread - anywhere from an even stronger El Nino by summer to a strong La Nina; even in the shorter term (after JFM), the spread becomes quite large, although they do all forecast initial weakening.
Yes, Skye.I'm trusting the obs much more than the models at this point.And the obs are indicating we will be much cooler by this time next month.
The best book ive ever read is by Bryan Norcross one of my favorite meteorologist the book is called hurricane almanac 2006 its filled with tons off valuable info on the tropics past and present.

Here is a pic of the book...



I highly recommed it to everyone who has a passion for tracking hurricanes.

Bryan Norcross Website
So does anyone think as mild of a winter where having right know that winter will come back with a vengence before it's over with? It shows that here in LA Alabama its gonna be in the high 60's to middle 70's til next week. It would be nice if it would stay like this my husband would be very happy. He hates cold weather.
I like that book to H23.THe Hurricane Andrew part was good,but not as good as he on in Hurricane Watch
I'm sorry,I meant that it wasn't as good as the Hurricane Andrew section in Hurricane Watch.
What was the coldest year? It looks like 1917 on their graph, but I would like to see a numerical table.
Sorry catastrophe,but it's getting cold
Yeah, it will get cold, but I am not going to buy what InAccuWeather says; it will probably be like last winter:

I'm buying it STL.Even in 16 days the GFS has the East U.S. in a trough with the 500mb flow coming down from Canada and Alaska.
none
I'll be back gotta go get my daughter from school.
I'll be back later on.
CB, you say: tunnels [...] start drawing cool water from below and mix it with the warm surface water...

I may not know much about meteorology but I know enough about water and there is something I know for a fact: bodies of water of different density don't mix easily. If you pump cold water to the surface it will just sink back to the bottom in no time. It takes a tremendous amount of energy to 'mix' water. And don't count on propagation to transfer the temp, it won't work. You can swim ten feet from a volcano and still have cold feet.
And don't count on propagation to transfer the temp, it won't work. You can swim ten feet from a volcano and still have cold feet.

Um...who swims next to volcanoes.Or more accurately, where can you swim next to a volcano?I agree his ideas are flawed,but that didn't really make much sense.
Cyclonebuster,how would your tunnels combat global warming due to greenhouse gases.
It would already be too late even if it worked.
Sorry, my English is not very good. I meant that even ten feet of (cold) water is enough to isolate you from something very warm, like glowing lava. Water is not like metal that conducts heat easily from one molecule to the other.

Caffinehog assumed that the cold water goes to the surface and somehow stays there. Not so, heavy water does not stay above light water. There will be some mix, but most of the cold water will plummet back.
Thanks orion,I meant no offense

Cyclonebuster,Andrew was moving too fast to be significantly affected.By the time it was over the Gulfstream(which you say is about 40 miles wide),it was a category 5 with 160 mph winds.It would've spent only 2 hours over the cooled waters of the Gulfstream,which I'll admit may have weakened it back down from 165 at landfall to 145.All of that,of course, assumes the tunnels would even work.
Prolonged Period of Cold and Stormy Weather Appears on the Way

Something for all the Bastardi fans.
That is exactly what I wanted to happen! I want the cooler water to plummet through the warmer layer below it thus cooling it also as it sinks! This thick layer of warm water probably 300 to 400 feet thick needs to be cooled since it is the fuel for the hurricane!!

You're physics are a little off CB.The cold water wouldn't cool the warm water,the warm water would warm the cold water.
You'd have both layers of water (warm and cold) at whatever the average temp between the two was before they interacted.Assuming of course, that the cold water doesn't sink instantly.
CB, OK at least you have ideas, which cannot be said from some 'optimists' (sic) on your side of the ocean.
One reason why I don't believe InAccuWeather:



Look at the northern part of the country... I see warmth coming back...
CB, OK at least you have ideas, which cannot be said from some 'optimists' (sic) on your side of the ocean.

What was that supposed to mean.People have already tried and failed to modify hurricanes.Realistic poeple realize it won't happen.
STL,the GFS is why I'm siding with Accuweather on this.
weatherboykris,

It would have started to weaken prior to reaching the gulfstream as the feeder bands would be felling the effects, also!


The SSTs below the rainbands don't matter.If they did, Dennis would've been a Cat4 at landfall.Instead,it's core moved over cooler waters and began to weaken,even though rainbands on the back side were still over the warm eddy.
Lili also was the same way.
Who's Hugh Willouby?And more importantly:Is he a hurricane expert?I asked you before and you didn't give me a straight answer.
The SSTs below the rainbands don't matter.If they did

Very true!!! In fact, here is an image from Katrina showing that the cold wake is only caused by the core (also notice just how much the SSTs cooled - down to 70 degrees or so).
Better have some extravagant ideas than put someone's head in the sand and pretend nothing is wrong.
In computer science, we call it the 'ostrich algorithm'. It is part of the very successful Linux kernel. But I wouldn't rely on that to fight global warming.
Have a good night everybody.
Hansen at the Sierra Storm meeting
Hansen, who said he was not speaking for NASA, said that after the warming of the past three decades, the world is within 1C of its warmest period in the past 400,000 years. He predicted that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the same rate, the warming this century will approach 3C, or about 5F.

He forecast that such a change would eliminate up to half the species on Earth and would melt polar ice caps. Subsequently rising ocean levels would inundate Florida, most of Louisiana and much of the East Coast, Hansen said.

"We don't know how long it would take for that to happen," he said.
Exxon seen warming to emission controls
Worlds largest oil company in on meetings to discuss what restrictions on greenhouse gases should look like in the U.S.
January 11 2007: 7:30 AM EST


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- ExxonMobil is said to be in on meetings discussing the potential structure of carbon controls in the U.S., a sign that the company believes curbs on greenhouse gas emissions are looming, according to a news report Thursday.

Exxon (Charts), the world's largest oil company and a longtime skeptic that humans are responsible for global warming, is joining other industries at a series of meetings in Washington and elsewhere to discuss how laws on U.S. carbon control should be written, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Exxon's thinking on global warming has recently become more in-line with those in the scientific community who believe global warming is a human-made reality.

Its current statement on the issue reads "we recognize that the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere poses risks that may prove significant for society and ecosystems. We believe that these risks justify actions now, but the selection of actions must consider the uncertainties that remain."
Exxon has also said it has stopped funding the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a think tank that questioned the premise that humans are largely responsible for causing global warming by burning fossil fuels with ad campaigns like ""Carbon dioxide: they call it pollution; we call it life."
Many countries restrict carbon emissions, notably those that have signed the Kyoto Protocol.

But the U.S. has so far resisted mandatory caps on emissions of the principle greenhouse gas, preferring instead a voluntary system which has not resulted in an overall reduction.

Many say the voluntary system will soon be replaced with some type of mandatory controls, especially now that the Democrats have taken control of Congress.

From the John Birch Society~

Though it is tempting (too tempting for some) to point to this year's weather as exceptional, meteorologist Jeff Masters, founder of the weather geek site Weatherunderground.com, points out in his blog that there is precedent for this year's weather. "An El Nino can lead to significantly warmer winters in the U.S.--exceptional December warmth has also occurred in 1877, 1939, and 1957, all of which were moderate or strong El Nino years," Masters explains. "I've plotted up a comparison of temperatures in December of 1957 vs 2006 (Figure 1), and one can see that the unusual warmth of December 2006 does have historical precedent. Taking a look at average U.S. December temperatures for all years in the historical record (Figure 2), we see that these temperatures do show quite a bit of noise, and there is no evidence of dramatic warming in the past 30 years."

It's worth pointing out that Masters is not a global warming skeptic. Instead, he is a scientist, and his blog on this year's temperatures, which includes a number of interesting graphics, is worth reading.
Well, I strongly disagree with Dr. Masters; something is ruining winter as we know it; here are the last 3 winters in my area (I could go futher back, using the NWS's preliminary climatological data):

I dont think heat itself is near as big as a problem as gasses that trap heat in the lower atmosphere.
Here was a few worth highlighting from the Hanson speech..another article on it.

"The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is now completely under the control of humans," he said. "Another Ice Age cannot occur unless humans become extinct."

Hansen's call came one day after the chief of the United Nations' effort against climate change said that despite widespread recognition of the seriousness of global warming, a lack of leadership has created a sense of helplessness.

founder of the weather geek site

So now I'm a geek!
OK...I've been called worse.
Current snow cover. Snow is white/light blue, the yellow is clouds.


Click image to make bigger.

How about an east side of Canada shout out...Is this normal? Ya'll freakin out or just enjoying?



DOES ANYONE KNOW WHERE TO GET THE MODEL THAT ACCUWEATHER USES BY THE NAM TO SHOW WHAT KIND OF PRECIP. IS GOING TO FALL
dyan come to my blog?
Very few models are suggesting La Nina might be around during the heart of the season.Its sure going to be interesting to how all this pans out.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Lets see what Jeff Masters has to say about all this tommorow in his blog.
Posted By: Skyepony at 4:01 PM PST on January 11, 2007.
From the John Birch Society~

Though it is tempting (too tempting for some) to point to this year's weather as exceptional, meteorologist Jeff Masters, founder of the weather geek site Weatherunderground.com, points out in his blog that there is precedent for this year's weather. "An El Nino can lead to significantly warmer winters in the U.S.--exceptional December warmth has also occurred in 1877, 1939, and 1957, all of which were moderate or strong El Nino years," Masters explains. "I've plotted up a comparison of temperatures in December of 1957 vs 2006 (Figure 1), and one can see that the unusual warmth of December 2006 does have historical precedent. Taking a look at average U.S. December temperatures for all years in the historical record (Figure 2), we see that these temperatures do show quite a bit of noise, and there is no evidence of dramatic warming in the past 30 years."

It's worth pointing out that Masters is not a global warming skeptic. Instead, he is a scientist, and his blog on this year's temperatures, which includes a number of interesting graphics, is worth reading.


It's also worth pointing out that that they omitted the following comment by Dr. Masters on those winters.

In the past, an exceptionally warm winter month in the U.S., like December 1957 (Figure 3), was offset by much cooler weather elsewhere, such as we see in Alaska, Greenland, and northern Siberia. However, December 2006 had no such offsetting cool temperatures--it was more than 1 C above average over almost all the land areas of the Northern Hemisphere north of 40 north latitude (Figure 4).
Comparisons to 1957 - has anybody noticed that Antarctica was colder than normal, like all of the cold air was at the South Pole? Not quite as cold as in 1957, but it likely partially offset the abnormal warmth in the Northern Hemisphere. Also, in 1957, Antarctica was warmer than normal. Interesting, yes?
Road Home to Louisiana Plan..PDf..Link
I noticed that the first time you pointed it out Michael.

What I noticed the John Birch Society did is called "cherry picking".
LRA.gov Link
Im out ..LOL
I wanted to know if anybody else had anything to say about that and what it could mean. I can't really see how colder than normal temperatures in Antarctica would affect temperatures on the other side of the planet, as it is not like the cold air is being held back or anything (like last winter, when Russia was freezing when the U.S. was very warm; air at the South Pole can't directly affect the North Pole).
Michael it is interesting. I could speculate on a reason but it would just be speculation ... and maybe it's just a coincidence.

Have any relationships of weather patterns between N&S Hemispheres ever been established?
Pat, what a wonderful picture.
Hey why did these guys ban me and my tunnel idea over there? What are they afraid of?


Cyclonebuster,the other weathersite banned you for the same reason you should be banned here.You contribute nothing to the conversation.Whereas some people such as STL,H23,1900H,Randrewl,and many others including myself do participate in meaningful discussion about weather,you don't.Talk about something other than the tunnels.There is no reason not to.Keep the idea on the table and try to make something happen with it,but don't harass people about it.
And Dylan, here is the link you asked for Link
Next winter I know we will get some good rain. I have moved onto next season.
LowerCal I had thought the same about the cherry picking.


source
How Antarctic ice affects world climate. Think of the Antarctic ice sheet as Earth's refrigeration unit: It exerts a major two-way control over today's global environment. First, the ice sheet (along with sea ice that surrounds it in the southern ocean) reflects back into space about 80 to 85 percent of the Sun's energy that hits it. So icy Antarctica, which records the lowest temperatures on Earth, helps to reduce the world's overall heat budget. Second, the near-freezing meltwater that runs off the ice sheet, along with the water from melting icebergs, falls to the ocean floor and moves northward. This surge affects deep-sea circulation, which in turn influences climate. A major meltdown would raise sea level worldwide and could modify weather patterns. Drawing source: February 1997 Popular Science (Infographic 1997 by John Grimwade).

Somewhere out there is a more recent study that had the way the Artic & Antartica played with each other & the weather through those currents.


The weather geek thing to do here seemed to be to post another bulging earth pic for fun.


The weird thing was in finding the pic I soon discovered the phanominon of the bulging more than usual earth is being blamed on global warming too.

NASA RESEARCH OFFERS EXPLANATION FOR EARTHS BULGING WAISTLINE
A team of researchers from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., and the Royal Observatory of Belgium has apparently solved a recently observed mystery regarding changes to the physical shape of Earth and its gravity field. The answer, they found, appears to lie in the melting of sub-polar glaciers and mass shifts in the Southern, Pacific and Indian Oceans associated with global-scale climate changes.

The team of researchers sought to find a climatic reason for the dramatic changes in Earth's gravity field observed since 1997. These changes have resulted from large redistributions of mass around the globe and are characterized by an increased bulge in Earth's equator and mass movement away from the poles - an occurrence known as oblateness, which can be thought of as the difference between a football and a soccer ball; the football has a larger radius at the equator. Their results are published in the December 6 issue of Science.
Your wacked...apparently u will never move on..and the proper term ..would be a TUBE..not a tunnel..tunnels are only Built in Earth..never water.Man ..ya really need to move on to something relevant.People are really starting to wonder if your ..er..well. alil off in da BHG.Thats short for Brain Housing Group.
That DUDE is you.And the Bowl represents your ideas..LOL
I bet you giggle when you see Bubbles in da Bath..
Will this effect the 2007 storm season? Do you expect sea water temperatures to be higher this summer?

Florida Keys Fishing


NOAA News
MILD WINTER LEAVES TATTERED BLANKET OF SNOW
Storms Mostly Wet, Not White, When Traversing U.S. (a few highlights)

Jan. 12, 2007 Skiers, sledders and snowmobilers in the central U.S. and East have been left itching for snow this season as El Nio influences the nation's typical winter weather pattern. In Thursdays daily snow analysis issued by NOAA, only 26 percent of the contiguous U.S. is currently covered by snowwith the greatest aerial coverage and depths across the higher elevations of the West and with relatively paltry amounts in the upper Midwest and Northeast.

Nationally, the current 26 percent snow coverage is on par to the coverage this day last year, but is much less than the 43 percent in 2005 and 33 percent in 2004.

"This is still a young winter season, and it takes just a single storm to drop a fresh blanket of snow and chip away at mounting snowfall deficits," Cline added. He recalled the light amount of snow in January of last year in parts of the East, which was followed by an early February storm that dumped up to 28 inches of snow from the Carolinas to New England.


Well they are optimistic...

check out this daily snow anylasis products.

Here was one of them, it's melting...

Marc~ it's hard to say this early on.
Here comes the snow....maybe ice too.






Rand~ In that article they show snow depth yesterday & today. Overnight, from that storm, has added a 50% + coverage.
This is a weather forum and it is the proper site for people to talk about such ideas and theories. Other sites have not banned me for coming up with the idea and neither has this one because DR. Masters sees the potential for such an idea!Right Jeff? So what gives with those other sites??BTW Jeff you have the best Weather blog in the world!! I don't care if they call us "WEATHER GEEKS" geeks or not.

I never called you a weather geek,I'm a weather geek .And Dr. Masters never said he supported your idea,I've never even seen him comment on them.

Mesoscale discussion for this morning's problem area.
kris~ the guy from the John Birch Society called us weather geeks. Many of us just use the filter to block CB's comments, please don't repost them & ....
ok then.What's the filter?
The filter is above this post and to the right..Choose a setting..youll see
I keep my filter set on Average.

Also, this is my forecast for the next few days (more details in my blog):



Potentially worse than the last ice storm (they only forecast a wintery mix back then and it lasted for only a day; big screw-up in the forecast). Hopefully, the fact that it is almost 10 degrees warmer than forecast right now will delay freezing temperatures and result in warmer temperatures than currently forecast (meaning just rain until the end).
How does it know who to block?
The system keeps track of everybody's ratings; notice the and buttons? When you click on the button, it increases their rating and the button decreases it (by the way, it also affects your rating as well). I am not sure what "average" means; whether it is compared to everybody else's ratings or to a fixed number.
The filter is where Patrap mentions if you go with newest comment 1st. Either way lokk to the right of where it says reader comments (At the top of the comments). This time of year I'll entertain the below average. Sometimes it takes a few refreshes to make it stick, but it's a wonderful feature.

Interesting Michael, being 10 above forecast.
What's my rating?
You can always click on show for a comment if you want to read it anyhow.
Here is my forecast; I am not sure if the warmer than forecast temperature means much, other than the front being slower than forecast (more time for heating, although it is cloudy with a dense overcast right now).
Keep increasing the filter & see if at some point your blocked. I can tell you it's higher than CB's:)
Can you people quit talking about how to censor someone and start talking weather here??

That's why isn't it skye?LOL
Michael it may just mean more severe coming though, if the temps behind the front are holding to thier forecast.
If we all flagged CB's posts,couldn't we get him banned?
If you have two handles, you can determine your rating by using the filter (you can't determine your rating with only one handle, unless you have somebody else tell you). I am sure that the rating is stored as a number and the filter simply compares the number to whatever rating the user selected. For example, (I just made this up, as I have no idea of exactly how the system works):

Bad = below -10
Below Average = -5 to -10
Average = +5 to -5
Good = +5 to +10
Best = above +10

So, if you were rated at +7, you would be shown under Good but not Best (a plus adds to your rating and a minus subtracts from your rating; when you rate somebody else, it also affects your rating as well, so giving pluses is good both ways). Digg.com does something similar.
The gfs keeps slowing that front down we're looking at like mid next week down in FL now. Another ridge building in, gonna slow it more.

lol, He's been sternly warned & I don't know why not banned. It really ruins the blog & that's all I'm saying on it.
Cyclonebuster is probably somewhere around -1000000000000000000000000000000000...

LOL!!!

Oh, you shouldn't just go around flagging somebody's comments as bad - it also affects your rating, so if you did this enough, you could find yourself blocked from other's viewing (unless you also flag an equal number of comments as good). Aaron said he did this for that reason - to help avoid "rating wars", although trolls probably flag others as bad for fun.
Plz, just go away and dont come back. Even if your tunnels were a viable plan there is no dignity in spamming the blog every few hours.
I smell Log Cabin Smoke.snif..sniff
dignity?....Freud would lovedat one.
Skye, the Miami NWS is saying seasonal lows will be set next week.
Gift to humanity?..Thats a Humble one......and again..a tunnel cant be built in water.A tube may be erected..but tunnels are Land ..earth works..not water.LOL!
Psych class over.BAck to the winter storm a brewing...
In measuring Global Warming, do they "ONLY" record the data from the exact same locations every year and "ONLY" the locations that where reporting in the year 1900 - till now?

If not, then they have change the baseline of their data every time new locations are added to their reports.

And many of these original stations are now surrounded by big cities and concrete that were not there back when they started recording this data for temperature change.

Unless all these original reporting stations are isolated or remote and have not been added to, then how in the world could we possible know the amount of global change?


Anyone know the answer?