WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

2006 in review: the global tropical cyclone season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:08 PM GMT on January 04, 2007

While no records were set in any ocean basin for number of tropical cyclones or number of intense tropical cyclones, 2006 saw a number of remarkable storms. Here's a summary of the most notable storms of the year, and the hardest hit countries:

Most intense tropical cyclone of 2006: Cyclone Monica.
Tropical Cyclone Monica, which made landfall on the sparsely populated northern coast of Australia in April, was the most intense tropical cyclone of 2006. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated maximum sustained winds of 180 mph with gusts to 220 mph at 00 GMT April 24, and a minimum pressure of 879 mb. However, other satellite measurements of Monica's peak intensity were different--TCWC Darwin reported a minimum pressure of 905 mb at 5:00pm ACST (0730 UTC) on April 23, and an unofficial estimate from the University of Wisconsin put Monica's lowest pressure at 868.5 mb--1.5 mb lower than the world record low pressure observed in Super Typhoon Tip of 1979. Monica brought a 5-6 meter (16-20 foot) storm surge to the coast when it made landfall, and Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog from yesterday has an impressive photo of the incredible damage Monica did to the forest on the Australian coast.

Monica was the most intense cyclone ever observed in the Southern Hemisphere, which is remarkable, given that she formed in the last half of April, when the Australian cyclone season is typically over. The co-record holder, also with a minimum pressure of 879 mb, is held by Cyclone Zoe of 2002, a Category 5 storm that affected several small islands in the Solomon chain. Reliable records of Southern Hemisphere cyclones only go back to the 1980s, so it is likely that there were other storms with lower pressures in the Southern Hemisphere during the past century. The lowest pressure measured at the surface in a Southern Hemisphere cyclone was 905 mb at North Rankin A gas platform during Cyclone Orson on 22-23 April 1989. Orson had 160 maximum sustained winds at the time, making it a Category 5 storm.


Figure 1. Eye of Tropical Cyclone Monica at 0430 GMT April 24 2006. Image credit: NASA.

Hardest hit country in 2006: the Philippines
The 2006 typhoon season saw an unprecedented five major (Category 3 or higher) typhoons make landfall in the Philippines, plus one Category 2 storm. Officially, 2049 people are listed as dead or missing and presumed dead from the 2006 typhoon season. Another 1122 died after monsoon rains triggered a landslide that buried the entire village of Guinsaugon in the central island of Leyte in February. In all, the six typhoons caused about $1.3 billion in damage--the most damaging typhoon season in Philippine history. For comparison, damage from all Philippine typhoons in the 20th century was $5.6 billion.


Figure 2. The fearsome sixsome of Philippine typhoons in 2006. From upper left to upper right: Super Typhoon Chanchu (May, Category 2 at landfall); Super Typhoon Xangsane (Category 4, September); Super Typhoon Cimaron (Category 5, October). From lower left to lower right: Typhoon Chebi (November, Category 3); Super Typhoon Durian (November, Category 4); Typhoon Utor (December, Category 3). A Super Typhoon is any storm with sustained 1-minute average winds of 150 mph or greater.

Deadliest tropical cyclone of 2006: Super Typhoon Durian
Super Typhoon Durian was the worst of the Philippine typhoons in 2006. Durian initially hit the island of Catanduanes as a Category 4 typhoon with sustained winds of 145 mph. Virtually every building on the island was damaged or destroyed, and Durian was judged the worst typhoon ever to hit the island. Next, Durian powered ashore into extreme southern Luzon Island in the province of Albay, still packing Category 4 winds of at least 135 mph. Durian passed directly over Mayon, the most active volcano in the Philippines and one of the country's most famous tourist attractions because of its near-perfect cone. Loose rock that the volcano had deposited in a July eruption rushed down the slopes in the form of deadly mudslides, thanks to Durian's torrential rains. Estimates from NASA's TRMM satellite of the rain amounts were 8-12 inches in a 24 hours period. The mudslides swept into villages and rivers at the foot of the Mayon Volcano. At least 1479 people died in the Philippines, mostly in mudslides near the Mayon volcano. This was the third deadliest typhoon in Philippine history, and the most damaging. Durian destroyed 211,000 homes, and damaged another 308,000. Durian weakened to a Category 1 typhoon after it emerged in the South China Sea, and passed along the coast of southern Vietnam. Durian killed 95 more people in Vietnam, destroying 50,000 homes and damaging 195,000. Damage was estimated at $456 million in Vietnam.

Most damaging tropical cyclone of 2006: Cyclone Larry
Australia got hit exceptionally hard by tropical cyclones in 2006, suffering hits by three major cyclones--Category 5 Monica in April, Category 3 Glenda in March, and the worst blow, Cyclone Larry on March 20, 2006. Cyclone Larry was a borderline Category 3/4 storm on the U.S. Saffir/Simpson scale, and struck Queensland with a fury unmatched in that region in perhaps a century. Damage from the storm was estimated at over $1 billion U.S. dollars.


Figure 3. Cyclone Larry. Image credit: NASA.

Longest duration intense tropical cyclone in history: Ioke
Hurricane Ioke (a.k.a. Super Typhoon Ioke after it crossed the Date Line) was the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Central Pacific, and remained at Category 4 or 5 strength longer than any tropical cyclone on record. Ioke spent 36 (33 consecutive) 6-hourly reports at that strength. The previous records were held by 2004's Hurricane Ivan with 33 (32 consecutive) and 1997's Typhoon Paka with 27 (25 consecutive) 6-hourly reports. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for this one storm was about 81--higher than the ACE index of 79 accumulated by all the tropical cyclones in the Atlantic 2006 hurricane season.


Figure 4. Super Typhoon Ioke. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks DOc..LOL!
Like i said..Better to be correct.Than first.!
thanks Dr. Masters.Do you believe the statments by Dr. Gray that Ioke could have helped start the El Nino so fast?
anyway Patrap,checked some of the records.Yeah,It seems storms don't weaken significantly as they're on they're way to Orlando.The 1928 storm was still a 2/3 by the time it got there.
where'd everyone go?
Tropical Storm Bilis was actually the most damaging storm of 2006 - $4.4 billion. Also, Australia's BOM increased Monica's wind gusts to 360 kmph or 225 mph (from 350 kmph, or 220 mph), meaning the sustained winds were 185 mph.
hello again
Thanks,Michael.
Yea Randrewl and if Wilma would have not moved over land South Florida could have easily experienced cat 2-3 winds which would have done alot more damage.Also if Katrina would have had lets say 6-12 more hours out over water the situation would have been alot worse for southeast florida.
Philippines Philippines poor poor Philippines
Yea Randrewl and if Wilma would have not moved over land South Florida could have easily experienced cat 2-3 winds which would have done alot more damage.
Since when didn't it give south Florida Cat 2-3 winds?
I know SE Florida didn't get cat 3 winds,but an eyewall wind warning was issued for SW Florida.
When you consider the fact that the wealth index of people in China is much lower than in the U.S., it makes Bilis' damage even more significant - China said that over 15 million people were left homeless by all of the storms that hit - just incredible (compare to the U.S. population of 300 million).
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
510 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...EYEWALL WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE: COLLIER...GLADES...
HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE.

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION
UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
UPDATED STORM SURGE IMPACTS

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A RARE AND EXTREMELY SERIOUS EYEWALL WIND WARNING FOR SUSTAINED HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 115 MPH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN COLLIER AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES FROM NAPLES SOUTH UNTIL 615 AM EDT.
I had cat 3 here during Wilma.
I'd actually never heard of an eyewall wind warning until they issued it.It's not listed in the watch/warning list at the NWS website.
Indeed Monica and Larry to incredible cyclones...

2 pics of Larry and Monica.

Close visible of Larry
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Most Incredible CDO ive ever seen!Monica
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Another Close-up Visible of Monica!
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
I can't imagine what would happen if a storm (or storms) ever made 15 million people homeless in the U.S... that is almost the entire population of Florida...
What was seen across south florida meaning the miami area was winds anywere between 80-90.I recorded a wind gusts to 81mph with my vortex that morning.
monica's CDO was definitly impressive.

The UK got about 85mph winds the other day
Infact it goes to show you how vulnerble south florida really is as the cat 3 winds were only experieced by animal life.Wilma's eyewall missed the florida keys by only 4-5 miles.
Michael, that would be possible if several storms hit the same densily populated area
If you are wondering about the effects of hurricane winds:

OPERATIONAL EF SCALE
EF Number 3 Second Gust (mph)
0 65-85
1 86-110
2 111-135
3 136-165
4 166-200
5 Over 200

Andrew's gusts were well over 200 mph... F5 tornado...

Category EF5 Wind speed >200 mph >324 km/h
Potential damage
Incredible damage.
Strong frame houses leveled off foundations and swept away; with strongest winds, brick houses completely wiped off foundations; automobile-sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 m (109 yd); cars thrown and large missiles generated; incredible phenomena will occur.
if a storm with very powerfull winds and a high storm surge then the Florida Keys would be wiped of the map
Here is a pic i have saved on one of my albums of Wilma on here way towards south florida on oct23 a couple of days before my 28th birthday. (Visible from NRL)


I can't imagine the Florida Keys still being here if Wilma had passed over them and she was going at a much slower speed
Nope..most of the surge goes AROUND a group like the Keys..not unlike Wake Island in the Pacific..the coast hasnt enough area for a surge to pile up...and the energy finds ways around the Islands...MINUS 50 pts for you.
The Keys have been through very bad storms in the past and survived.The 1935 Labor Day storm comes to mind.
Thats luck if their luck runs out then they not be here anymore
If you live in south florida the most dangerous storms would be the ones coming up from the south.
Best to do some research before making a sweeping statement .Looks bad,..plus the Keys has been there long time.Most who live there would laugh at that post.
well south florida has had its fair share of storms over the years. Thank god i don't live there
If you live in south florida the most dangerous storms would be the ones coming up from the south.

why would that be?
you live in south florida the most dangerous storms would be the ones coming up from the south.

How is that?
Here's a view at the windfield on the 1935 hurricane that hit the florida keys.


Unless you mean SW.But storms coming from due south are like Ernesto and Irene usually.Annoying little pests that drop a ton of rain with practically no wind.
Some models, notably the CMC and NOGAPS, suggest that a new year will not bring an end to the endless parade of storms that have hit the Philippines... they have an invest as well...
I guess im wrong because Hurricane Georges did quite a lot of damage and so did the Labor Day Hurricane
Did you ever hear about how the blowing sand in that storm skinned people alive?
Storms that come up from the south tend to affect a larger area then the ones the come from the east like andrew that moved over florida city.
and the Keys are still here
Here ya go.lesson Plan No 1. read this over the next 24..and get back to me here. Link
More stuff....Link
Storms that come up from the south tend to affect a larger area then the ones the come from the east like andrew the moved over my neigborhood in florida city

Okay,are you talking due south or from the SW like Wilma?Either way,the Classic Cape Verde storms that hit the east coast are usually the most dangerous because they're usually stronger.
Here is more on Wilma-NHC Report.
Iam referring to dade county were i live.
And for those who Like the formation and numbers game..a must read. Link
OK lets get into some INVESTS 91W in the WP
Few examples Cleo and Donna.
ok pat..in your first link...any ideas why the models were able to better track these three storms than the other storms during the season?
Windsgusts to 175mph were felt across the florida keys with donna.

(Donna's Windfield)

the last link you have.....well...i think i'll have to pass.....it's for brighter minds than mine
Thats good question.Think more eyes were trained on them.Media Hype and world hype.
I hate math..Like Jihadists.
doesn't everyone hate maths
i don't know pat...they were the same models run on all....but..i think it's the 24 dollar question...what charachteristics made them easier to forecast....unless...it's shown that becuase of the attention..the data entered into the models was more accurate
I think..and only my opinion..that these 3 had easily defined influences .The tracks were easier due to that..maybe.I had bad feeling on Katrina as early as Thursday.Whenever a GOM track lays in the Fla panhandle..and Moves west.I get freaking nervous.Every forecast track shifted west..and well..you know the rest.
could be..of course...pat..if any of us could understand that last link you posted...we might have a better chance at answering correctly..but..i'll go with your answer...makes sense to a simplton as me
I just post um.I dont understand um..LOL
I understand ..Women...Wine and song though!.
amen pat....such is why..i am the king of cut and paste...
thats not true..cept the wine and song part.
Heres one for the East coast to bite on Link
Heres a Bigun ,LSU 41..ND 14
Look live at the Port terminal here...Link
I geuss everyone left.
is everyone still here??
I'm here.Looks like everyone else left.
well im away till later
okay.I geuss I'm alone then
ive dicided to stay. i was away cos my computer crashed
im back now, my computer crashed
ok never mind the second message there
I'm here too. But only breifly. Its lunchtime. Whats up ??
not much
not much either
typical non-hurricane season boredom
er..plenty of weather HERE...Link
Another invest in the Pac. ? where exactly ??
its a lot more exciting when there is something to talk about
91W SE from thePhilippines
just not much to talk about.12z GFS hinting at a shortwave trough bringing a swath of snow through the northeast in about 6 days.
Looks like more of the same for you Pat. How are you making out ?
the bermuda high looks ominising
yeah,we'll see how that holds up.My seasonal forecast update comes out tonight on my blog.My first forecast was in my first entry.
Hope 91 fizzles. The Philipines have been under heavy manners. Whats the prognosis ?
ill check your blog out kris
" ominising " ?? great word.......
its about 15kts with a pressure of 1006mb under 5-10kts.
91W is in an favourable area to develop, hope it doesn't.
its also not forecast to intensify any time soon
Right. Thanks, I was just looking at it myself. See you had some strong winds yesterday ?
were are you located pottery?
Is that normal weather for you ?
11n 61 w Trinidad.
im in Orlando,FL and just moved here
You should read the book "Hurricane Warning" if you haven't already.The section on Hurricane Andrew was great, along with in-depth info on the individual computer models and their faults.
I'm confused. I thought you were in Scotland. Or were you there 2 weeks ago, or am I mixing you up with someone else ??
Well i did live in scotland, i moved here overnight a couple of weeks ago. Over them long hours i was on a laptop.
It's boring on a plane that is coming over here!! 8 and a half hours
OK, that explains that ! Scotland has any snow yet ? I doubt it, exept maybe up high.
Scotland didn't have any snow when i was there not even up high.
Yeah. On those long trips they should dispense valium ! Heathrow / trinidad is 10 hrs. Add the checkin, checkout, ground travel etc, its torture.

Anyway hope youre settled in nice . I'm back to work.
What i can't get is the heat here. Your lucky you don't melt.
You have to remember to drink lots of stuff. Even water is ok. heheheh
I'm gone now.
dr m you have mail
hi Taz
just wait until summer Thunder2.Temps in inland central Florida get in to the mid 90s with dewpoints near 70 practically everyday from about May 15 to September 30th.
Its going to get hot
dr m for got one

hurricane CIMARON that was a big one and stong one i think that one was the stongets of 2006
im away now. Ill be back in about couple hours to check up on things. Bye for now
Anyone here besides myself old enough to remember Hurricane Hazel and the death and destruction she brought to the US and finally making her way up to Canada where she intensified enough to wreak havoc and death in the Toronto area. I was living in the Ottawa area as a child and remember some harrowing moments myself when the big transformer blew out by our house and the elm tree decided to give way and landed on the roof over my bedroom.

Over l800 families in Toronto alone lost their homes, 8l died during the mass flooding. When she made landfall she was a Category 4, had winds when still in the Caribbean of 155 miles per hour.
Some convection with 91W but looks rather disorganized at this time.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Hello!..from Nova and me!
And the blog comes to life!
Video shot by placing Binocular Camera in FEMA trailer window...LOL
04/1433 UTC 4.2N 111.5E T1.0/1.5 90W -- West Pacific Ocean

90W dos not no when to give up dos it it is back
look at this the big high move a little more W or E cant tell from the last time i look
lol
In Tazmanian's graphic, it would be interesting to know whether hurricanes would be steered to the west or go up in the gap between the two high pressure centers, if that map were in the middle of hurricane season.

It would depend on the mid and upper level ridging above the surface highs. But I think hurricanes would find the weakness and stay out to sea.
oh this call me taz
China's science ministry has come out with its first global warming study, link is here:

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/headline/txt/2006-12/27/content_52041.htm

And no I am not typing that out, there needs to be a way to cut and paste into the link function.
Save in right click then paste with the link button.EZ
What is important to remember is that hurricanes aren't steered by surface features, they are steered by things in the mid and upper levels.
The latest maps from NCEP indicate that there has been a ridge over much of the Atlantic and Eatern U.S. at 500mb for much of December.Link
Sorry, that link isn't what I wanted to post.For some reason the link takes you to a 1000mb Geopotential Height map
Thanks Patrap it really worked!
The jeffmasters blog has reappeared & ya'll are posting on it again. When I mentioned it the other day it went away, anyone care to explain?
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST THU JAN 04 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041609Z - 041845Z

AIR MASS FCST TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE ALONG LA COAST NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SVR. DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
LAND AREA AFFECTED INITIALLY WILL BE RATHER
SMALL AND CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE COAST. HOWEVER...GRADUAL INLAND
SHIFT OF POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME AS MARINE/WARM FRONT NOW
JUST OFFSHORE SHIFTS NWD.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER GULF S BPT AND
E GLS...WITH WARM FRONT EWD OVER COASTAL WATERS TOWARD MOUTH OF MS
RIVER. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW OF LOW TO OFFSHORE BRO. BKN
PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE -- EVIDENT AT 1545Z FROM NEAR POE SSEWD
ACROSS WARM FRONT...THEN SWWD OVER GULF -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD
ACROSS SRN LA. MAIN CONCERN ATTM IS EXTENT OF INLAND PENETRATION OF
MARINE SECTOR BEFORE PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND. MORE
PRECISE WARM FRONTAL LOCATION IS INDEFINITE...HOWEVER FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE FRONTAL SLOPE IS VERY SHALLOW. TIME SERIES OF RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS BECOMING SFC-BASED
WITHIN 40-50 NM N OF MODELED WARM FROPA. NEARLY SATURATED
LOW-MIDLEVEL AIR MASS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL BE COUNTERBALANCED
ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT BY SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S...AND
ENOUGH SFC THETAE TO YIELD MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG AFTER 18Z.
MODIFIED LCH RAOB...VWP DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS...WITH ROUGHLY 50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH POTENTIALLY 250-400 J/KG NEAR WARM
FRONT WHERE SFC FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED.






HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1117 AM CST THU JAN 4 2007


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
.HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TAKES EFFECT AT NOON TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
LOUISIANA LATER TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
Your just blooming with bad news rand..
One small break for lunch.....then this.
More details as they develop on my blog.
Here are shots of the damage caused by Wilma, which was a cat 3 when it hit Florida. Plus it was travelling at 20-25 mph, so do the math....net forward speed of 131 - 136 mph.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/sfl-wilmagallery_bestof,0,5095197.photogallery?c oll=sfla-hurricane-utility
ajwboca,the forward speed is already added on to the storm's strength.In other words,when the NHC said it had 125mph sustained winds,they'd already taken the forward speed in to account.
Forward motion of Circulation only factored in for right front Quad...
Luckily for many..Wilma came and went quickly..that always helps with a lesser impact.
Heres the regional landfall radar loop of Wilmas landfall and exit..Link
141. WSI
"In Tazmanian's graphic, it would be interesting to know whether hurricanes would be steered to the west or go up in the gap between the two high pressure centers"

Irene (2005) went between two of them. Image here (first image on the page). In that case though, one of the high pressure areas was a lot smaller.
Heres Katrina local landfall loop..a bigger area impacted for a greater length of time equals much more devastation...Link
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
430 AM PST THU JAN 4 2007

YES...THE BAY AREA HILLS COULD SEE SNOW EARLIER THAN NEW YORK
CITY THIS WINTER


LOL!
The bermuda high will shift many times between now and time for hurricane season.Its nearly impossible to know what pattern exactly is going to be in place this year.Its all about timeing with tropical systems.
yes it is 23 yes it is we this have to wait and see
hi again everyone
it looks like that bermuda high has got everyone on the edge of their seats
WHat the SAm Hill are you talking about?..Tropics are over in the Atlantic.The High can come and go in response to CONUS fronts.The point is MOOT!..LOL
Heres a real-time weather event ...Link
Thats quite a storm
91W is now expected to become a tropical storm by early next week. But im optimistic.
Organization with 91W seems to have improved a tad but looks like it might be a slow process if it does indeed go ahead and become a TS.

Infrared pic!



Forcast Models for 91W...

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us


Currently 1006mb.
The cold front forecasted for Florida next week is now being portrayed stronger. Read more on my blog or

Florida Weather
Turtle,some of the info in your 2006 recap is wrong.
around 15kts aswell, 23
A loop of the Western Pacific,91W is at the bottom right of the loop Link
I updated my hurricane forecast in my blog.Leave comments!
this blog is dead
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 PM CST THU JAN 4 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA

* UNTIL 415 PM CST

* AT 337 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER NEW
IBERIA...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
LOREAUVILLE BY 345 PM CST

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME - TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CST THU JAN 04 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...PORTIONS SRN MS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 1...

VALID 042122Z - 042245Z

POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR INTERMITTENT INTENSIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES...AND ASSOCIATED RISK OF TORNADOES...FROM TSTMS
EMBEDDED IN LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION AND PRECIP NOW SHIFTING EWD
OVER WW AREA. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM WET
DOWNBURSTS -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN SUPERCELLULAR REAR-FLANK
DOWNDRAFTS OR SMALL BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NOW INLAND BETWEEN
ARA-BTR...SEWD ACROSS MSY AREA THEN OFFSHORE MS/AL COASTS. THIS
FRONT -- WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY...SHEAR AND
LIFT -- SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD OVER REMAINDER SERN LA AND
EXTREME SRN MS AHEAD OF MAIN PRECIP BAND. FRONT REMAINS SHALLOW AND
SOME EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS CAN BE SFC-BASED TO ITS N. MODIFIED
18Z SIL RAOB...VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES...WITH 0-1 KM SRH 150-300 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN 40-50 KT
RANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE OFFSETS WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES TO
YIELD MRGL BUT STILL POTENTIALLY SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT. MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER WW AREA...ESPECIALLY E OF PRECIP SHIELD WHERE
WEAK SFC HEATING AND WAA HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS TO NEAR 70 F.






at last some weather acton
163. 882MB
Hi does anyone have an ENSO UPDATE? Is EL NINO still holding strong?
El nino is suspected to last untill May this year
Doc Masters: ...estimated maximum sustained winds of 180 mph with gusts to 220 mph...
Write a building code for that. We'll be living in anvils with anchors.

Things OK in LA after the storms/rain?
i mean its pretty nuetral now:) 0.8
168. 882MB
So that means it has died down somewhat because in December it was around 1.2 or more.
yeah pretty much 882:)
170. 882MB
And they had said it was going to peak around January-February. Well the quicker it dies down the more complicated our 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON will be. they are already saying that LA NINA conditions are expected for AUGUST but if it EL NINO is already winding down then it will be interesting!!!!!
so is El nino this about gone?
No, Taz. El Nino is not gone. It's weakening and appears to be going away, but no one really knows. Even the climate models arent sure. 1/3 of them keep El Nino through Oct, 1/3 take it to neutral conditions, and the other 1/3 bring on La Nina.
buster...you're stating the obvious. Global temp charts already take into effect El Nino's and La Nina's. The trend is upward. The globe is warming, it's clear.
What? We have records of SST and surface air temps, both of which are effected by ENSO.
Yes, the average temp is how we know we are warming. Temps these days are regularly above average, which are then added into that average the next year, raising it aswell.
Huh...? There is only one ENSO feature at a time. There is not an El Nino is the Pacfic and La Nina in the Atlantic. In fact, El Nino and La Nino only happen in the equatorial E Pacfic so there cant be one somewhere and the other elsewhere.
Im not sure what you're getting at, but the high and low ends of SST temps are taken into account with the general SST average for the area.

If you want specfic numbers for only El Nino and La Nina then you need to look at the records and do it yourself. Because unless you get lucky and stumble on a graph over the internet, no one will do it for you.
Still doubt it, but you might have a chance.
Thats true, but I wasent going to bring it up.
go to coolwx.com and click on the hourly US statistics, and then the pressure change link (the site will not allow direct linkages)

Look at the pressure falling sharply over so large an area over the last 24 hours. Looking at it without knowing anything else, it seems as if a vacuum was forming that would just slurp arctic air down. But it is not so.
Unfortunently there's just not much cold air around, even up in the Canadian artic. You can maybe put some hope into a pattern change in about a week or so. Long range GFS has been predicting a change to colder weather pretty consistantly for the past few days. Not much to put faith in, but something.
There ya go buster...23 had a chart off-hand for ya. Hope its what you were lookin for.
If you take into account other ENSOs peaking later in the year then 06 is really last. But there is a chance El Nino could come back, maybe it can squash part of 07 aswell.
Overall i expect El nino conditions to persists atleast threw may or june.Then followed by Neutral conditions developing across the atlantic basin.Lets see how all this evolves threw the upcoming months.
Don't LA NINA make hurricane season worse? I'm just trying to get it straight.
yes,they do.Is turtle here?
Years such as 1998 and '99 were La Ninas
goodnight,Cyclonebuster
check my blog the next time you get on.By tomorrow morning I'll have posted the rest of my 2007 huricane season forecast
jjjeeessshhh....does anybody got a beer
Japan Meteorological Agency assigns 92W as a weak Tropical Depression.

CMC Global Models don't develop this storm any further as it heads towards Thailand.

--------------

CMC Global Models has a storm in the Southwest Indian Ocean possibly developing into Tropical Storm Dora sometime early next week.

Scientists say 2007 may be warmest yet By RAPHAEL G. SATTER, Associated Press Writer
Thu Jan 4, 6:05 PM ET



LONDON - Deepening drought in Australia. Stronger typhoons in Asia. Floods in Latin America. British climate scientists predict that a resurgent El Nino climate trend combined with higher levels of greenhouse gases could touch off a fresh round of ecological disasters and make 2007 the world's hottest year on record.

ADVERTISEMENT

"Even a moderate (El Nino) warming event is enough to push the global temperatures over the top," said Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research unit at the University of East Anglia.

The warmest year on record is 1998, when the average global temperature was 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the long-term average of 57 degrees. Though such a change appears small, incremental differences can, for example, add to the ferocity of storms by evaporating more steam off the ocean.

There is a 60 percent chance that the average global temperature for 2007 will match or break the record, Britain's Meteorological Office said Thursday. The consequences of the high temperatures could be felt worldwide.

El Nino, which is now under way in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to last until May, occurs irregularly. But when it does, winters in Southeast Asia tend to become milder, summers in Australia get drier, and Pacific storms can be more intense. The U.N.'s Food Aid Organization has warned that rising temperatures could wreak agricultural havoc.

In Australia, which is struggling through its worst drought on record, the impact on farmers could be devastating. The country has already registered its smallest wheat harvest in a decade, food prices are rising, and severe water restrictions have put thousands of farmers at risk of bankruptcy.

In other cases, El Nino's effects are more ambiguous. Rains linked to the phenomenon led to bumper crops in Argentina in 1998, but floods elsewhere in Latin America devastated subsistence farmers.

El Nino also can do some good. It tends to take the punch out of the Atlantic hurricane season by generating crosswinds that can rip the storms apart good news for Florida's orange growers, for example.

"The short-term effects of global warming on crop production are very uneven," said Daniel Hillel, a researcher at Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research. "I warn against making definitive predictions regarding any one season's weather."

What is clear is that the cumulative effect of El Nino and global warming are taking the Earth's temperatures to record heights.

"El Nino is an independent variable," Jones said. "But the underlying trends in the warming of the Earth is almost certainly a result of the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."

Another more immediate effect of the rising temperatures may be political.

Australian Prime Minister John Howard is already under fire for refusing to link his country's drought to global warming. In Britain, Friends of the Earth campaign director Mike Childs said the weather service's 2007 prediction "underlined the gap between the government's rhetoric and action."

Other environmental groups said the new report added weight to the movement to control greenhouse gases.

It came a day after the weather service reported that 2006 had been Britain's warmest year since 1659, and three months after Sir Nicholas Stern, a senior government economist, estimated that the effects of climate change could eventually cost nations 5 percent to 20 percent of global gross domestic product each year.

Figures for 2006 are not yet complete, but the weather service said temperatures were high enough to rank among the top 10 hottest years on record.

"The evidence that we're doing something very dangerous with the climate is now amassing," said Campaign against Climate Change coordinator Philip Thornhill.

"We need to put the energy and priority (into climate change) that is being put into a war effort," he said. "It's a political struggle to get action done and these reports help
goodnight everyone.I just finished my 2007 hurricane season forecast update.The original was my first blog entry.
thanks for the info Taz.goodnight
Its late but I guess something may have formed up just north of the watch box.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1111 PM CST THU JAN 4 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST

* AT 1111 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER YAZOO
COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
Tropical Depression 5.0N 111.0E -- <30 knots 1008 hPa

Tropical Depression was reported as nearly stationary as of 12am UTC


Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Bulletin
=====================================
Area of convection has developed near 4.7N 110.0E or 235 nm west of Brunei. Imagery shows a well-defined low level circulation center with cycling deep convection. Analysis shows that the disturbance is within weak to moderate vertical wind shear with maximum sustained winds of 12 to 18 knots and a center pressure of 1004 mb.

The potential development of this disturbance into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours is poor.
Hey all,

Does any one know why the storm tracking labels are not working on Nexrad?

Storm tracking is shown with storm labels, but the information for each label doesn't show up below radar.
Darwin, Australia (Bureau of Meteorology)

Region Of Responsiiblity
=============================
Northern Australia

A weak tropical low, 1006 hPa, is situated just off the north coast.

The low is not expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone during the next three days.



yup, which is why people need weather radios during the night time.
Ioke was the most amazing storm out of them all. This year saw some pretty intense storms.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 AM CST FRI JAN 5 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 115 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

Just to add to Dr Masters comments, The Australian BOM now consider TC Larry to have been a Cat 5 storm as it approached the coast.

Unfortunately no maximum sustained wind speeds or pressure readings from the landfall location have been recorded to verify the true intensity of the storm. However it can be said that the region had encountered Cat 3 cyclones in the past and survived relatively unscathed, whereas after TC Larry it was wiped off the map. To put it in perspective, damage to the vegetation in the area alone was extensive enough to cause bananas (the primary crop of the region) to go up in price ninefold ($2/kg - $18/kg) across the whole of the country of Australia.

The highest wind gust reading for TC Larry was from a CSIRO Tower site as the eyewall approached. The reading was 294km/h (159knots). Shortly after this the instrument stopped providing readings due to damage from the storm.

For those interested in further reading upon this, a link to the BOMs wrap-up concerning TC Larry is provided here: Link


Also anyone who objects to TC Monica not being the most intense cyclonic storm of 2006 (if not ever recorded) havent been informed of the full scale of the monster she was, being all but the "perfect" cyclone.

For all those who havent seen Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog then I thoroughly advise them to go view it.
In addition, here is BOM TC Monica wrap-up page: Link

TC Monica was a product of the La Nina-like conditions (above average in the Coral Sea off Qld by almost 2C) we experienced in the early period of the year, and simply of a cyclone being able to find its way out of the Gulf of Carpentaria and into the Arafura Sea without hitting land, allowing it time to explode over the 29C+ SSTs with very little shear to consider.

In the Northern Hemisphere it would be like a storm developing in the eastern Pacific, crossing Central America, entering the Caribbean and then passing between Jamaica and Cuba without making landfall before entering the GOM when it has SSTs 2-3C above average whilst under low shear


Lets be thankful that she turned earlier than expected and spared Darwin, forecasts at the time were predicting a near bullseye hit for the city, and I have no doubt this wouldve hit them harder than the TC Tracey (Cat 4) wipeout in 74.


If only the BOM would have staff like the hurricane hunters in Darwin, Cairns and Port Headland then we would be able to get some accurate Southern Hemisphere cyclonic data for once.

must be one big storm
okay

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Macon County in southeast Alabama
this includes the city of Tuskegee

* until 715 am CST

* at 626 am CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 10 miles
southwest of Tuskegee... moving northeast at 50 mph.

* The tornado is will be near...
Tuskegee by 635 am CST

When a Tornado Warning is issued based on Doppler radar... it means
that strong rotation has been detected in the storm. A tornado may
already be on the ground... or is expected to develop shortly. If you
are in the path of this dangerous storm... move indoors and to the
lowest level of the building. Stay away from windows. If driving... do
not seek shelter under a Highway overpass.

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 am CST Friday morning
for southern Alabama.

To report severe weather...
on the web www.Srh.NOAA.Gov/bmx (submit a storm report)
call 1-800-856-0758.

Lat... Lon 3229 8594 3224 8583 3225 8571 3248 8558
3244 8584
anyone here?
The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement



umm...the safest place to be..is in another state
hi everyone
hi kris how you doing to day
thunder,I posted the landfall porbabilities in my blog.Don't use the links.They are to the wrong places for some reason.
good thanks
alright thanks

i was wondering why the links weren't going where they were linked to
use the third link.You can use the tabs there to switch to what I was trying to show if you want.
severe weather warnings Link
okay
any updates on that Bermuda high
I read your blog.Lots of stuff.How long did it take to write?
It's strong.Very similar to the way it was in December of '98.
something like two hours i think
If the GFS is right, most of the U.S. is in for a big shock in about 10 days, earlier if you live in the West and later in the East... it forecasts near record lows in the 10 below range for me on the 17th, falling some 60 degrees over a couple days, even colder in other places (for example, it has Kansas City at over 20 below zero).
Link
Use this link.Switch the top tab to 'Geopotential Height',the lower tab to '500mb' and put December in both of the month tabs.Then type 2006 in the first year box.erase 2005 and 2006 from the 2 boxes below all of the year boxes.Scroll down and hit enter.
Yeah,I saw that Michael.A couple of potential snowstorms if the timing is right.
everybody get your hats and scarfs out
i don't know if its the same system but there is a New INVEST in the WP, 92W
I won't really believe any forecasts for a massive cooldown until these go down (across northern Canada, where Arctic air comes from):

Temperatures over the last 30 days at Watson Lake, Canada Temperatures over the last 30 days at Yellowknife, Canada Temperatures over the last 30 days at Fort Smith, Canada Temperatures over the last 30 days at Baker Lake, Canada
Click to enlarge

Some areas in Canada have been more than 20 degrees above normal for the past 30 days...
if there is any forecast for a massive cooldown then whats going to happen with the warmest year forecast?
96S is also up:



The CMC is the only model that has it and it stays mostly over/near land:

96S is forecast not to turn into anything relevent
The cooldown is only for the continental United States and Canada; in fact, Alaska gets much warmer, by the same amount as other areas get colder (right now, Alaska is actually colder than normal). Also, "warmest year" refers to the entire world, which must never be forgotten (that is why it is called Global Warming). Overall, it is warmer than usual around the world; while some regions will be cooler than normal due to regional weather patterns, most places will be warmer. Also, it will be nearly impossible for any cold snap to pull down winter temperatures significantly; last year, the 44 day long period of wildly above normal temperatures was followed by single digit temperatures, but overall winter was one of the warmest on record.
Thunder,
(1)I liked your blog very much,in depth
(2)Even if we have a massive cooldown in about a week and a half,it would probably be relatively short-lived.
kris
1.thanks
2.yeah like all cooldowns and winter storms
Thunder
(1)your welcome
(2)was that sarcasm?
kris
1.ok
2.no i don't think so
The left is for January, the center for winter (I use meteorological winter, Dec-Feb because mid-January is the coldest time of the year) and the right is through the end of February 2006:



Past year:

1.This is getting stupid
2.I'm done now
yeah is is kinda getting stupid
I'll be back later
okay
One interesting thing to note is that it appears that the period of prolonged warmth for the past two winters started after a very cold period and apparantly will both end with a very cold period (last year, it got down to 5 degrees in mid-Feb; the very cold air meeting the unusually warm air caused a severe weather outbreak resulting in considerable damage from baseball size hail).
this blog is dead
No it's not,I'm back
its not dead anymore
287. ryang
Hi guys.You all can come to my blog!
i think i've already been ryan
but ill go again
That Bermuda high looks like its extending outwards
yeah,still too far out to know with exact certainty where it will be by the season,but as I said in my blog,the past few years, this has been the time of year when the patterns have been put in place that will last in to the H-season
its one of those times that u just cross you fingers and hope for the best before HS
For anyone who hasn't been on my blog please go onto it.
I saw it already.
i put that that on here for anyone who hasn't been onto my blog
Ahh yes! Wintertime in the Upper-Eastern seaboard. A time when many flock to the zoo and go to catch the cherry, apple and peach blossoms and take in a sunny 60 degree day at the park.


Ummmmm OK! lol
Thats a very interesting story
You know it's January when the ITCZ is so far south you can't see it on Meteosat-8":
LOL Pulse!





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST FRI JAN 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...GA...EXTREME SERN AL AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4...

VALID 051731Z - 051930Z

TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF GA...EXTREME SERN AL
AND PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE UNTIL 21Z.

AT 1715Z...A SQUALL LINE STRETCHED FROM 40 NE AHN T35 SW AHN TO 10
SE PFN AND WAS MOVING EWD AT 40 KT ON THE NORTH END AND 25-30 KT ON
THE SOUTH END. THE SQUALL LINE WAS STRONGLY BOWED ACROSS NRN GA...
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE LOCATED ALONG THIS
PORTION OF THE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE LINEAR NATURE OF THE STORMS
SUGGEST MOSTLY A DAMAGING WINDS THREAT...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND MLCAPES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG ARE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES WITHIN
THE LINE...AND ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN
PORTIONS OF THE WW THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS.

That storm is causing trouble
Thats a big Tornado watch.
5 Tornados have been reported in the past 24 hrs
Interesting chart on Hurricane Andrew! Since were in reflection mode! Never seen this chart before, kind-of interesting.
have you ever seen the landfall loop?
Link
Yeah Pulse....187mph! Yow!
I think when the The Atlantic Hurricane Database (HURDAT) Re-analysis Project reaches 2004, hurricane Frances will be downgraded to 90-95 mph at It's Florida landfall.
Here is a visible shot from one of my albums of andrew moving threw the bahamas about to slam right into south florida...Winds with andrew were 170mph at landfall.


Thats an impressive looking hurricane. 2nd to Monica though
Havent been on much today,so sorry if this has already been discussed. Does anyone know what is going on with the NEXRAD radar?






MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CST FRI JAN 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GA...SRN SC...NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4...

VALID 051916Z - 052115Z

A NEW TORNADO WATCH...ENCOMPASSING PARTS OF SERN GA/NRN FL...AND
PERHAPS SRN SC...MAY BE NEEDED IN ABOUT AN HOUR.

WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO
INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SRN/CNTRL GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS WITHIN A ZONE OF VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS MA/AL. NRN PART OF
THE LARGER SCALE QLCS....FROM NERN GA INTO NWRN SC...HAS RACED NEWD
AHEAD OF THE SRN AREA OF WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SWRN GA AND
FL. THE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER RAIN SHIELD AND HAS LOST SOME LINEARITY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... ISOLATED CELLS ARE OCCASIONALLY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCS AND HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO ROTATE. A
COUPLE OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MCS WERE NOTED IN
HOUSTON COUNTY GA...AND SOUTH OF FRANKLIN COUNTY FL...IN THE
GULF...OVER THE PAST HOUR.

WHILE IT APPEARS THAT DEEP CONVECTION MAY HAVE TEMPORARILY OUTRUN
STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING UPPER WAVE...THE
STRONG DRY PUNCH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR WILL SOON BEGIN TO OVERRUN
STRONGER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN
GA. SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES INTO THE
EVENING. THUS...EXPECT A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

Jerrob....All I heard was a software problem. I haven't checked with Aaron though. You might want to check his blog.





BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 6
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

TORNADO WATCH 6 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-003-007-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-067-075-079-083-089-
107-109-121-123-125-060400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0006.070105T1950Z-070106T0400Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE
DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST
HAMILTON LAFAYETTE LEVY
MADISON MARION NASSAU
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE
TAYLOR UNION


GAC001-003-005-019-025-027-039-049-065-069-075-101-127-161-173-
185-229-299-305-060400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0006.070105T1950Z-070106T0400Z/

GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH
COFFEE COOK ECHOLS
GLYNN JEFF DAVIS LANIER
LOWNDES PIERCE WARE
WAYNE


AMZ452-454-GMZ850-060400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0006.070105T1950Z-070106T0400Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...
From the reports it looks like there were some possible tornado touchdowns in northern Georgia and south Carolina

I dont know WHAT THIS MEANS BUT IT SOUNDS BAD:

EIGHT CARS PILED ON TOP OF EACH OTHER AT LIBERTY ELEMENTARY...PICKED UP BY THE WIND. ALSO...METAL AWNING OFF A GARAGE AND A POWER POLE DOWN. (GSP)

There is a Possible tornado on the ground now to the S of Tallahassee:

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SAINT MARKS

all current Tornado warnings have been cancelled
Here in Savannah - is this thing headed our way or is it going to miss us?
watch out evere one XmasLightLover is back! he post on my blogs
Possible Watch 07 (Tornado)

AREAS AFFECTED...North Carolina PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS AND PART OF Northern South Carolina

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northern York County in upstate South Carolina

* until 500 PM EST

* at 412 PM EST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 7 miles west of
Clover... or about 9 miles northwest of York... moving northeast at
45 mph.

* The tornado is expected to be near...
Clover around 420 PM EST...

This Tornado Warning has been issued because Doppler radar indicates
there is high potential for the rapid development of a brief...
isolated tornado within the warned area. Mobile homes and vehicles
should be abandoned for sturdier shelter. Otherwise... go to an
interior room on the lowest level of your home or place of business.

To report tornadoes... damaging winds... large hail... or flooding...
through our automated reporting system... call our toll free number...
1 8 7 7... 6 3 3... 6 7 7 2.

Lat... Lon 3513 8138 3506 8137 3504 8120 3510 8104
3515 8105 3516 8119








URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 7
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
435 PM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 435 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
VIDALIA GEORGIA TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...WW 6...

DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL DEVELOP NEWD AHEAD
OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS AL/FL AND THE
NRN GULF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN GA
ATTM...NUMEROUS EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS HAVE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS
THE AREA. GIVEN APPROACH OF STRONGER FORCING AND MOIST/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.


Its been one hell of a day
Southern/Central North Carolina might get WW 08 for storms that are within WW 05 moving northeast.
page 4 or 5 of this discussion they were talking about wilma. Wasnt there something about wilma and the number 2?
JFLORIDA, all that is headng for cental Florida, When that storm gets close enough im going to bunker down
These storms don't look to have settled. The Central Fl Hazardous outlook has activated spotters. The 2pm discussion was still kinda bent on, it will die as it approches...but keep an eye out to the north. NFL I think has a better chance at severe weather but all should keep an eye on it as it approaches.
Atleast the dewpoints are falling with the temps.
The top half of that line heading for central florida is only 116 miles away from me.
Tornado Watch Box 08

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTED UNTIL 0600 AM UTC. (1am EDT)

TORNADOES
===========

HAIL
==============
0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER.

WIND
============
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...

DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
=================
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
As usual here on the islands off the GA coast, cooler maritime air at the surface is keeping things stable and preventing severe weather on the immediate coast.
That is usually the case here in winter and spring.
and I love Randrewls maps!
Hi. Its been a good day, here in the balmy tropics.
None of the following....hail, tornado, wind, snow, Pretty benign actualy. The way it ought to be in Jan.
AND its Friday. Life is Good. Whats up out there in the real world ??
Well then, heres what I did today. Attended a seminar on Permaculture. which is a new name (relatively ) for an original method. Hosted by us here. lecturer from Indiana, attended by 24 . including a chick from New York city with manicured toes, a white rasta from St. Vincent, a couple of guys from Forrestry Dept here, diverse others, all interested in trying to improve their lands by adopting knowledge that has been hard to find since someboddy decided it was a good idea to lock-up the food. An inspiring day. Tomorow we talk irrigation and sustainable harvests.
Oh, and weather is a part of any agriculture. So we talk weather too. Just so we keep on topic. What is tonights topic anyway ???
Also, a big part of the Permaculture thing, is to return soil to its original " living " condition. This obviously precludes the use of chemistry. To do that, one needs to plant things that restore balance. By planting things we generate a healthier environ. Isnt that nice ?
Further, a recent European study has shown that when you walk into a forrest, your metabolism changes . Your heart rate slows down, your senses are improved, your well being soars. We needed a study to tell us that ?????
The same thing probably happens when you stand in the rain. But I am not aware of any study to confirm this .
So, we need to support our local forest, park, lawn, garden. If we dont, we mess with the weather ultimately, which could very well mess with our forests etc. Its an unpleasant cycle. And the study has now shown that we need green places for well being. So go out tomorow, and plant a tree somewhere.
Its a far more pro-active endeavour, than seperating garbage into different coloured bags.
Er, Hi Cyclonebuster. You sound agitated again. I'm tring to disseminate some positive vibes,
I kmow that the bears are stressed. You can help them by going out tomorow and planting an evergreen tree. Storms have blown down millions of them this year !
If half the people planted ONE tree tomorow, we would have 3 . 5 billion more trees
Thats a dissressing link, CB, but I'm not at all suprised. But listen, we also have got to promote a POSITIVE side to this mess. Any ideas on that ?
Another grim link. If you seek you will find some that are optimistic. Here in Trinidad the Forrestry Dept introdoced an incentive sceme to get people with land to look to agro forrestry as an option. % yrs later there are 630 registered farmers in this sceme planting timber, with tech assistance from the Gov. It works, and it was started by one motivate character..........
Ok,good. You are in danger of becoming mired in the negative here you know. The media loves to highlight doom scenarios. I'm not sure why. But there is a lot of good stuff going on, and there is a higher level of awareness today than ever before. Things will not change fast, but change is inevitable, and will occur.
Chill out, come here :)
Link
The thing is that we are witnessing the death of a predominant civilisation ( I use the word with some reservation ). But any culture that actively dismantles its myths is in deep trouble. The system that is based on violence toward nature is doomed to fail. We cannot sustain the current status quo, and therefore something has got to change.
Good rain here, but no thunder :)

<>a href="
could not open that radar link...........
try zip code 31522, click on the circle in the middle until it blows up to x 8 times
CB, your idea is a good one, from the point of veiw that it may physically work. I feel though, that the situation would be better addressed if we were to admit that storms are natural things, and that we need not do away with them. It would be better to curb the habbits that we have that increase the intenity and number of storms, so that we can live with them.
" intenity " should read intensity.......
Perseverance is a good thing ! But I'm not convinced yet .
Just went outside and howled at the moon. Its a lovely night here.......
sounds too good to be true..........
Realy ? Grimmer and grimmer. You need to plant loads of trees. Its your only salvation. Start right away. You have lots to attone for. But at last you have seen the light, which is good, not so ?
And if it makes any difference, I personaly forgive you personaly , for screwing up the atmosphere in your previous incarnation.
And I have no doubt that Mother Nature will forgive you as well. But its gonna take lots of trees. Start tomorow.
Sometimes I feel that you guys with the obviously high degree of mechanical / technical / scientific knowlege are not seeing the problem from a simplistic, holistic point of view. Another machine is not the solution. Think of the problem you are concerened about as a trend that can be reversed by human, individual action. There may be an answer there if you look.
Yikes. Now I sound like a Hollywood insired Zen guru. Sorry about that..........
"insired " is inspired..
It must be from going out in the moonlight. I'm sure it has nothing to do with this rum........
I know this is off topic, but any wundergrounder's in the Colubmia, SC area. I just accpeted a job offer in the area (actually McBee)?
Further, I'm not sure that you should carry around the load that you seem to me to carry, that you want to give back that which you took away etc. you are not realy responsible for the depletion of the ozone layer all by yourself. I have sprayed loads of aerosols in my time. I dont feel I have to appologise for that. I feel I need to do some positive things though.
Hi Orion. Sorry, I cant help. I'm in the West Indies........
Actually, we've done this topic to smithereens. Anyone have another ?????????
Good. Rum is a fair topic. We should put the suggestion to the floor. Anyone seconds rum ?
Is there no one left standing ?
Good Lord , CB, they all gone away. We can conclude that they are not good mixers or something.
Bad mixers tend to give me a headache anyway.
Everything I learned from a rummy, I forgot the next morning. Why do you think that is ?
True.
Me too. Its been, er, different............
Tornado Watch 09

Effect until 12pm UTC (7am EDT)

Northeast North Carolina
Southeast Virginia

Tornadoes
===========

Hail
=========
TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER.

Damaging Wind
============
gusts to 70 mph

Dangerous Lightning
===============
Likely within the watch area

anyone on?
Imfeeling a lil OFF..LOL
I'm not too ON either.
funny
looks colder for the next few weeks in the eastern U.S. finally
must be an " off " day.
it wasn't that funny
Is it on and off?
414. ryang
Hi.
Im bored too...7
Checking out the local this morning, it's inline with Randrewl's map. Tuesday, looking much cooler but since we're 20 above average this cool down will bring us to near climo.
Does anyone remenber which wundergrounder's had the list of where everyone lived. I am moving to SC soon (Colubmia area) and I was curious if thier was any fellow wundergrounder's there
Here is the list that shows where everybody lives (at least everybody that has put their location in).
You can also put in city & state on the top left (here's Charleston), then go to the bottom right & it will list recently updated blogs from that area.
Judge: Deal 'fair' in Katrina oil spill

NEW ORLEANS - A federal judge on Thursday praised a proposed deal between the Murphy Oil Corp. and thousands of St. Bernard Parish homeowners to end a legal fight over an oil spill during Hurricane Katrina.

U.S. District Judge Eldon Fallon stopped short of final approval of the settlement but said he would rule shortly. He left both sides confident he would give his blessing to the $330-million deal that covers about 6,500 homes and businesses.

"The settlement is fair, reasonable and adequate," Fallon said, noting that only two residents in the class-action suit objected.

A settlement would put to rest a slew of lawsuits filed after a massive oil storage tank at Murphy's flooded refinery in Meraux was knocked off its foundation during the hurricane. The tank broke, unleashing about 25,000 barrels of oil on the surrounding neighborhoods, churches, canals and playgrounds.

Murphy concedes no wrongdoing in the settlement of one of the biggest urban oil spills in American history. Plaintiffs had alleged that the refiner failed to follow best practices by not filling the tank up with fluids so that it would be stable during storms.

The settlement identifies a range of compensation for property owners, depending on how far they were from the spill. If the deal is approved, Murphy would seek to buy about 570 homes on the four streets next to the refinery and tank farm.

"It's a fair settlement," said Daniel Bourgeois, a resident who lived in the worst-hit zone next to the refinery. He declined to say how much he would end up getting from insurance payments and a Murphy buyout. "All I can tell you is that I'm very well compensated."

About 250 homeowners opted out of the class-action suit, and their suits will go forward if the settlement is approved.
Hi everyone
i got hammered hard last night
Blob NE of the islands 1st Blob of the 2007 hurricane year

lol
seen like the Blob is holding up good with all the high wind shear do you all think?
a blob like that would have been ripped up by high shear by now so thats impressive.
It seems stationary though.
and there dos seen to be low wind shear round FL like 10 to 20kt of shear so i will give this olny 1% ch right now but this is a vary small ch but it could hold and it may not
That blob looks like it will hold up for a long time before going bye bye
Chances of formation:
0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 000000000000000000000000000001%

LOL...

Although, this has a 0.1-0.2% chance:

& low shear maybe coming for it..lol we need a 12 step program to help us blob watchers... Even when it's january we can't help but look.
Blobbers anonymous! LMAO!!!
well anything can happen
well we sould this keep a eye on it any way
NEW ORLEANS - All seven policemen charged with murder or attempted murder in a bridge shooting after Hurricane Katrina were free on bail Friday, and a judge said the six still on the New Orleans Police force can return to limited duty