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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

2000s: hottest decade on record; dangerous blizzard pounds Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:33 PM GMT on December 09, 2009

The end of the decade is upon us, and this decade was the warmest decade on record, according to NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The decade of the 2000s was 0.17°C (0.31°F) warmer than the 1990s, according to NOAA. The "official" scientific assessments on climate change, the IPCC reports, have been predicting that Earth's temperature rise should average about 0.19°C per decade, due to human-caused global warming. Thus, the warming over the past decade is about 10% below predictions--well within the uncertainties that natural variation in the climate can bring. Of course, one can look at shorter time periods and say that no warming is occurring. The hottest year on record globally was 1998, according to the UK's HadCRUT3 data set, and was 2005, according to the data sets maintained by NASA and NOAA. It is apparent from the plot of global temperature anomalies (Figure 1) that the global temperature rise has flattened out since 2005. One can correctly say that global temperatures have not increased since 2005. However, climate is measured on time scales of decades, so it is incorrect to say that the climate has not warmed since 2005. It is meaningless to any statement about climate on any time scale less than ten years. Thirty years is better, since the atmosphere has natural multi-decadal oscillations, and the solar cycle of 11 years is also important. Global average temperature oscillates 0.1°C between the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle, and we are currently in an unusually long minimum.


Figure 1. Change in global surface temperature anomaly as computed by NOAA (NCDC Dataset), NASA (GISS data set) and combined Hadley Center and Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (UK) (HadCRUT3 data set). Uncertainty in the HadCRUT3 data is shown in gray. Image credit: WMO.

Mass front-page climate change editorial published in 45 countries
An unprecedented joint editorial urging action on climate change appeared in 56 newspapers in 45 countries yesterday. Many of the papers carried the editorial on the front page. The editorial began: "Unless we combine to take decisive action, climate change will ravage our planet, and with it our prosperity and security. The dangers have been becoming apparent for a generation. Now the facts have started to speak: 11 of the past 14 years have been the warmest on record, the Arctic ice-cap is melting and last year's inflamed oil and food prices provide a foretaste of future havoc. In scientific journals the question is no longer whether humans are to blame, but how little time we have got left to limit the damage. Yet so far the world's response has been feeble and half-hearted.". According to Editor & Publisher, the editorial was published in 20 languages including Chinese, Arabic and Russian. The text was drafted by the UK newspaper, The Guardian, in conjunction with editors from more than 20 of the papers involved. A number of U.S. papers supported the project and agreed with everything in the editorial, but only one--the Miami Herald--was brave enough to publish it.

Posts on the hacked climate scientists' emails
If you haven't read my posts on the hacked email affair, my attitude on the matter can best be summed up by a highly amusing political cartoon by Houston Chronicle cartoonist Nick Anderson. While an investigation is needed into whether the scientific data involved was properly withheld from other scientists, there is nothing in the hacked emails that affects the validity of any of the published peer-reviewed science on climate change. "Climategate" is a manufactured scandal designed to take attention away from the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is responsible for most of the observed warming in recent decades, and that this warming will increase dramatically in coming decades. My posts on the affair:

Don't shoot the messenger
Embattled UK climate scientist steps down
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change summit. Check out his blog over the next two weeks to hear an insider's view of what's going on.

Major winter storm blasts the Plains and Western U.S.
It's a bad day to be in Iowa, unless you happen to be a polar bear. I'll back up that startling claim with some hard data: at 4:35 am CST, Carroll, Iowa reported heavy snow, sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 48, visibility 350 yards, a temperature of 9°F, and a windchill of -17°F. The mighty storm responsible was centered over Lake Michigan this morning, and is bringing blizzard conditions to Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. The storm has brought very high winds to large portion of the country. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 77 mph were reported in Ruidiso, New Mexico yesterday afternoon, and hurricane-force wind gusts were reported in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas yesterday. A peak gust of 105 mph was reported in Texas' Guadeloupe Mountains. Heavy rain from the storm has also brought localized flooding to California, Arizona, and Louisiana.

Some snow amounts from the storm so far (with distances in miles from the city included, where appropriate):

...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 7.8 SSW 30.4
JACOB LAKE 24.0
WILLIAMS 0.4 SW 20.0
GRAND CANYON SOUTH RIM 18.0

...CALIFORNIA...
KIRKWOOD SKI AREA 48.0
ALPINE MEADOWS 45.0
SODA SPRINGS 40.0
KINGVALE 1.3 WSW 37.0
NORTHSTAR 36.0
CISCO 5 ENE 35.0
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 8 SSW 31.0
MAMMOTH LAKES 14.0

...COLORADO...
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9.1 NNW 33.0
CARBONDALE 8.2 S 24.8
CRESTED BUTTE 6.2 N 24.5
DURANGO 24.0
BAYFIELD 7 N 23.5
DOLORES 22 NE 23.0
GREELEY 2.3 SE 22.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 3 SE 22.0

...IDAHO...
WESTON 4.0
POCATELLO AIRPORT 3.7
BOISE 6.7 SE 3.5

...KANSAS...
MARYSVILLE 14.0
LINCOLN 5 NE 12.0
CONCORDIA 5 SSE 11.0
HAYS 13 WNW 9.0
SALINA 8.0
ABILENE 5 SSW 7.0
MANHATTAN 7.0

...NEBRASKA...
TECUMSEH 13.5
ORD 12.0
OMAHA 3 N 8.6
KEARNEY 8.0
INDIANOLA 6.0

...NEW MEXICO...
LAS VEGAS 8.4 NW 8.0
SANTA FE 3.3 NE 5.5
TAOS PUEBLO 2.8 NW 5.2
GALLUP 8.1 NNW 4.8

...NEVADA...
HEAVENLY VALLEY 34.0
MT ROSE SKI AREA 23.0
CARSON CITY 1.3 NW 18.0
RENO 7.1 N 13.7
SUN VALLEY 0.9 N 10.5

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
SIOUX FALLS 6.0

...UTAH...
VERDUE 8 WNW 25.0
SPRINGDELL 23.0
ORDERVILLE 19.0
SPRINGVILLE 10.0

...WYOMING...
SAND LAKE 11.0
DIVIDE PEAK 9.0
LARAMIE 27.3 WSW 6.0
CHEYENNE 26.7 NE 4.3

Next post
I'll have a new post Thursday; there's a lot going on.

Jeff Masters
Snow in Angels Camp.
Snow in Angels Camp.
Woke up this morning to snow. We don't get snow in Angels Camp very often. It made for some difficult driving.
Frost
Frost
More frost on our car. This photo wasn't cropped or edited.

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

NCEP Update 3PM CST

On the Blizzard in the Midwest/Upper Midwest:


STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 09 FOR CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES WINTER
STORM
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM CST WED DEC 09 2009

...MODERATE SNOW DEPARTING NEW ENGLAND WHILE BLOWING SNOW
THREATENS THE UPPER MIDWEST...

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS...WATCHES...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE
ALSO IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND COASTAL REGIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...OHIO VALLEY...AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 200 PM CST...A 974 MB...28.76 INCH LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT THE SURFACE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS EXITING NEW
ENGLAND WHILE WARMER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WAS ALLOWING RAIN TO FALL.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 PM CST SUN DEC
06 THROUGH 300 PM CST WED DEC 09...



...IOWA...
ATLANTIC 1 NE 16.0
WINTERSET 15.0
DANA 14.0
TOLEDO 14.0
DES MOINES 5 WNW 12.7
HARLAN 1 N 11.0
CEDAR RAPIDS 10.0
CLIVE 3 SW 10.0
CORNING 10.0
PACIFIC JUNCTION 3 W 10.0
GUTHRIE CENTER 9.5
ADEL 9.0
AUDUBON 9.0
BELLE PLAINE 1 SSW 9.0
WATERLOO 9.0

...ILLINOIS...
FREEPORT 11.0
ROCKFORD 4 NW 6.0
LOVES PARK 5.5
WOODSTOCK 5.5
MOUNT PROSPECT 4.0

...MAINE...
NORTH SEBAGO 9.0
CUMERLAND CENTER 8.1
GORHAM 7.2
CUMBERLAND CENTER 7.0
AUBURN 6.5
YARMOUTH 6.5

...MINNESOTA...
KIESTER 9.0
NEW MARKET 8.5
ROCHESTER 8.3
MANKATO 8.0
MINNEAPOLIS 6.7
LA CRESCENT 1 N 6.5
READS LANDING 1 W 6.5
PRESTON 6.3
CURRIE 4 N 5.0
FARMINGTON 4.0
OWATONNA 4.0

...MISSOURI...
ROCKPORT 12.5
TARKIO 12.0
OREGON 10.0
BETHANY 8.0
ALBANY 7.0
MERCER 7.0
UNIONVILLE 7.0
COFFEY 5 W 6.0
GILMAN CITY 6.0
SAVANNAH 5.0

...NEBRASKA...
OMAHA 6.0

...WISCONSIN...
MADISON 17.2
MIDDLETON 4 WSW 17.0
ELKHART LAKE 13.0
STANLEY 12.4
PORTAGE 3 SE 11.2
EAU CLAIRE 11.0
LA CROSSE AIRPORT 9.0
OCONOMOWOC 8.5
CORNUCOPIA 4 S 6.0

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 PM CST SUN DEC
06 THROUGH 300 AM CST WED DEC 09...

...DELAWARE...
DOVER AFB 2.11

...GEORGIA...
GAINESVILLE/LEE GILMER ARPT 2.41
ROME/RUSSELL FIELD 2.40

...KENTUCKY...
JACKSON/J. CARROLL 2.09
BOWLING GREEN-WARREN CO. ARPT 2.06

...MARYLAND...
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT 1.88

...NORTH CAROLINA ...
SHELBY MUNI ARPT 2.06
ASHEVILLE MUNI ARPT 1.97

...NEW JERSEY...
WILDWOOD - CAPE MAY CO. ARPT 2.07

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
CLEMSON/OCONEE CO. RGNL ARPT 2.26
GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG AP 2.10

...VIRGINIA...
WALLOPS ISLAND 2.78
RICHMOND 1.91

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN ICE AMOUNTS IN INCHES FROM
700 PM CST SUN DEC 06 THROUGH 300 AM CST WED DEC 09...

...IOWA...
DAVENPORT 6 NE 0.25

...ILLINOIS...
ABINGDON 1 N 0.25

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...ARIZONA...
CHINO VALLEY 78
CROWN KING 77
DEER VALLEY 74
PRESCOTT 74
BELLEMONT 70
WINSLOW 69
SCOTTSDALE 68
CAMP VERDE 66
LUKE AFB 62

...NEW MEXICO...
MALJAMAR 78
FORT STANTON 2 SSW 77
RUIDOSO 1 SW 70
LOVINGTON 64
LAS VEGAS 6 NE 63
CLOVIS 5 N 62

...TEXAS...
GUADALUPE BOWL 105
MOUNT LOCKE 87
THE PINERY 85
FORT DAVIS 11 NW 75
SEAGRAVES 68
HART 3 N 65
NORTHFIELD 1 S 65
AMARILLO 3 SSE 64
OLTON 6 S 63
SILVERTON 7 ESE 63
LEVELLAND 4 S 61
WAYSIDE 3 NNE 61
HEREFORD 60
TULIA 2 ENE 60
TURKEY 2 WSW 60
TIMBERCREEK CANYON 59
FLOYDADA 2 NNE 58

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 7.8 SSW 30.4
JACOB LAKE 24.0
WILLIAMS 0.4 SW 20.0
BELLEMONT 19.0
GRAND CANYON SOUTH RIM 18.0
DAVENPORT LAKE 16.0
ASH FORK 4.9 SW 10.0

...CALIFORNIA...
KIRKWOOD SKI AREA 48.0
ALPINE MEADOWS 45.0
SODA SPRINGS 40.0
KINGVALE 1.3 WSW 37.0
NORTHSTAR 36.0
CISCO 5 ENE 35.0
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 8 SSW 31.0
HOMEWOOD 2 SE 27.0
PROSSER CREEK RESERVOIR 24.0
FAIR PLAY 2.8 ESE 19.0
POLLOCK PINES 0.1 E 16.0
VOLCANO 5.4 NE 15.5
MAMMOTH LAKES 14.0

...COLORADO...
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9.1 NNW 33.0
CARBONDALE 8.2 S 24.8
CRESTED BUTTE 6.2 N 24.5
DURANGO 24.0
BAYFIELD 7 N 23.5
DOLORES 22 NE 23.0
GREELEY 2.3 SE 22.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 3 SE 22.0
CARBONDALE 7 S 21.0
MESA 6 S 21.0
BLACK CANYON VISITOR CE 19.0
BAYFIELD 0.8 SW 18.3
CREEDE 14 SW 18.0

...IDAHO...
WESTON 4.0
POCATELLO AIRPORT 3.7
BOISE 6.7 SE 3.5

...KANSAS...
MARYSVILLE 14.0
MORROWVILLE 4 SSE 13.0
OKETO 3 W 13.0
LINCOLN 5 NE 12.0
SCANDIA 12.0
CONCORDIA 5 SSE 11.0
NE WATERVILLE 11.0
CORNING 2 W 9.0
HAYS 13 WNW 9.0
WEBBER 2.6 ENE 8.4
NORTON 0.4 N 8.2
BENNINGTON 2 SSW 8.0
SALINA 8.0
WAKEENEY 13 W 8.0
ELLSWORTH 5 SE 7.5
ABILENE 5 SSW 7.0
MANHATTAN 7.0

...NEBRASKA...
TECUMSEH 13.5
ORD 12.0
HOLDREGE 11.0
FAIRBURY 10.0
YORK 10.0
AUBURN 5 ESE 8.6
OMAHA 3 N 8.6
CRETE 8.5
BEATRICE 8.0
KEARNEY 8.0
WEEPING WATER 8.0
CALLAWAY 6.5
INDIANOLA 6.0
NEBRASKA CITY 6.0

...NEW MEXICO...
LAS VEGAS 8.4 NW 8.0
EL RITO 2.3 NW 6.0
YOUNGSVILLE 5.4 NE 6.0
ANGEL FIRE 10.2 SSE 5.5
SANTA FE 3.3 NE 5.5
TAOS PUEBLO 2.8 NW 5.2
GALLUP 8.1 NNW 4.8
TAOS 13 NW 4.0

...NEVADA...
HEAVENLY VALLEY 34.0
MT ROSE SKI AREA 23.0
CARSON CITY 1.3 NW 18.0
MINDEN 4.2 WSW 14.5
RENO 7.1 N 13.7
DAYTON 1.7 SW 13.0
SUN VALLEY 0.9 N 10.5
INDIAN HILLS 0.7 N 10.0
FALLON 0.6 ESE 9.3
SPARKS 7.5 N 9.0
SPRING CREEK 8.0

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
SIOUX FALLS 6.0
NORTH SIOUX CITY 5.3
VERMILLION 5.0
CANTON 4.0
MENNO 4.0

...UTAH...
VERDUE 8 WNW 25.0
SPRINGDELL 23.0
ORDERVILLE 19.0
NEW HARMONY 18.0
BLANDING 28 W 15.0
SALEM 1 W 14.0
BRIGHTON 1 N 12.0
HEBER CITY 12.0
OAK CITY 0.3 SSE 10.6
BOULDER 1.3 NNW 10.3
NORTH SALT LAKE 10.0
SPRINGVILLE 10.0

...WYOMING...
SAND LAKE 11.0
DIVIDE PEAK 9.0
NORTH FRENCH CREEK 9.0
SARATOGA 0.3 ESE 8.0
SOUTH BRUSH CREEK 7.0
YODER 6.5 SSE 7.0
LARAMIE 27.3 WSW 6.0
BURNS 8 NNE 4.5
ELK MOUNTAIN 2.1 S 4.4
CHEYENNE 26.7 NE 4.3
THAYNE 4.2 NNE 4.1

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...ALABAMA...
HUNTSVILLE/MADISON CO. AIRPT 3.90

...ARIZONA...
BAGDAD 3.88
FLORENCE 9.1 NW 3.11
MAYER 0.4 WSW 2.75
PINE 0.9 SW 2.20
SEDONA 2.20
NEW RIVER 3.2 ENE 2.17
CAVE CREEK 7.7 ENE 2.06
PRESCOTT 16.2 NNW 2.04

...CALIFORNIA...
JOSHUA TREE 2.8 ENE 5.50
JAMUL 11.0 ESE 3.40
SANTEE 0.8 W 2.84
LYTLE CREEK RAWS 2.77
IDYLLWILD 1.8 NW 2.66
EL CAJON 0.7 S 2.40
HENSHAW DAM 2.36
JULIAN 2.36
POTRERO 2.27
SANTA YSABEL 2.17
LEMON GROVE 1.8 WNW 2.16
SAN DIEGO 6.1 W 2.12

...LOUISIANA...
NEW IBERIA/ACADIANA 6.71
JEANERETTE 6.34
SLIDELL 5.32
BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT 5.05
NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT 4.60
SLIDELL 3.47
LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT 2.45
LAKE CHARLES MUNI ARPT 1.96

...MISSISSIPPI...
GULFPORT-BILOXI 2.76
HATTIESBURG/LAUREL 2.66
PASCAGOULA 2.52
KEESLER AFB/BILOXI 2.44
JACKSON WFO 2.18

...TENNESSEE...
OAK RIDGE 3.08
CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD 2.68
KNOXVILLE MUNI ARPT 2.39
MEMPHIS INTL ARPT 2.09
JACKSON/MCKELLAR 2.01

...TEXAS...
GALVESTON 6.4 NE 2.25
GALVESTON/SCHOLES 2.19
DICKINSON 1.4 W 2.00


THE MAIN LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DOMINATE OVER NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
TO THE EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT HAZZARD WITH THIS STORM SSYTEM. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 900 PM CST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
EVENT.

OTTO
Good afternoon all,looks like the blog has been ramblin all over the place today,but at least everyone has played nice.Been a real mess here in the northeast.Started with heavy snow this morning,lasted for about 4 inches then over to heavy rain,left with a slushy mess,but storm was not too bad as our northeast storms go.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Dont worry about that its Global Warming causing that. With to much C02 in the atmosphere Worm holes form randomly.


LOL
40 out of the 50 states are blanketed with snow
It's very foggy in Tampa. It kind of looks like the fog is rolling in off the bay. Very strange day.
:)
Quoting Grothar:


I just had to answer this one. Being a Viking you are going to say my ancestors never learned to live in the cold!!! Where do you think we came from the Bahamas??? Greenland was not green when the first Viking settlers landed. There was a warming period where part of the south coast had minimul trees and grazing land. The rest was still 85% glacier. They named it Greenland so others would colonize and follow. Please go back and read what you can on Greenland before making such a statement. Besides, the people who met the early Vikings were called the Dorset. Inuit refers to the indigenous people of the Arctic and roughly means "the people"; a term to which many native peoples in primitive cultures refer to themselves. The Thule culture replaced the Dorset and the remaining indigenous peoples are the descendents of that culture. Vikings couldn't adapt to the cold! What a statement! You want to come to visit my family in Northern Norway. Indeed!!!


Now granted, more may be known now than when I studied this but I recall reading that they likely left for a myriad of reasons. Lowering temperatures definitely played a role. It wasn't that they couldn't stand the cold but a colder climate coupled with their poorer farming practices (sorry if that offends...just what I recall learning) that led to overgrazing and erosion, they just were unable to sustain their way of life.

And, you thought I was joking when I said that Al Gore would have blamed the Little Ice Age on them :)
TEXAS...
GALVESTON 6.4 NE 2.25
GALVESTON/SCHOLES 2.19
DICKINSON 1.4 W 2.00

That's me at the bottom, my data I submit
Quoting CaneWarning:
It's very foggy in Tampa. It kind of looks like the fog is rolling in off the bay. Very strange day.


Ya its rolling in from the Bay, Ive been watching it all day, started to thin out around noon, but rolled back in a hour later. Its so strange looking being 4:32pm with fog out side.
Hey Bordonaro,

I think you missed Jackson Hole, Wyoming. We need a complete picture, if you don't mind. LOL
Quoting StormChaser81:


Ya its rolling in from the Bay, Ive been watching it all day, started to thin out around noon, but rolled back in a hour later. Its so strange looking being 4:32pm with fog out side.


Galveston every year gets socked in the fog sometimes all day, imagine that, like outta of a movie scene
Quoting NRAamy:




i would be care full on what you post the Admin may be watching i would re move that if you dont want too get banned from dr m blog all so some one may be re porting you too the Admin so i would watch what you post
So, is it official that Gro is not allowed to moan and groan about how cold it is...ever?
Quoting NRAamy:
Amy, That looks like Nixon
thank you Taz....this is on topic...but I appreciate you warning me....
Quoting StormChaser81:


Ya its rolling in from the Bay, Ive been watching it all day, started to thin out around noon, but rolled back in a hour later. Its so strange looking being 4:32pm with fog out side.


Yeah I'm watching it roll in from my office in downtown Tampa...very odd looking out there.
Quoting trinigal:


Just moved to Florida and have only met two people who were born here. Seems like most people I meet are from the Caribbean, California or the Northeast.


5th generation here.. in my avatar, I am portraying my great great grandfather in 1883. He homesteaded on Hypoluxo Island.. gave it it's name and spelling too.
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah, the guy who wanted me to go is into speed sailing


Good thing you stayed in! That's some hairy weather!
Quoting Grothar:
Hey Bordonaro,

I think you missed Jackson Hole, Wyoming. We need a complete picture, if you don't mind. LOL


I didn't think Jackson Hole, WY was affected by the blzzard :0)!!
Quoting indianrivguy:


5th generation here.. in my avatar, I am portraying my great great grandfather in 1883. He homesteaded on Hypoluxo Island.. gave it it's name and spelling too.


Now that is truly impressive!
Quoting eyesontheweather:
The way I heard it was "Ping Golf clubs are so incredible that the woman are beating Tiger with them"!


LOL! That's good too...
Quoting CaneWarning:


Yeah I'm watching it roll in from my office in downtown Tampa...very odd looking out there.


Funny thing is just 6 miles or so north or here, im pretty sure there is no fog, well at least clearwater airport is reporting any.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Good thing you stayed in! That's some hairy weather!



no doubt!
Longwood, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
82.6 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 64%
Dew Point: 69 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph

Pressure: 29.84 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 86 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds: Few 4800 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 23 ft

This should make people up north jealous. It actually got up to 86 earlier in the day with a heat index of 91. Only in Florida can you get this hot in December.
Quoting NRAamy:
thank you Taz....this is on topic...but I appreciate you warning me....



that photo you this posted was not on topic it was vary off topic photo in fac you been posting a lot of vary off topic photo
Quoting StormChaser81:


...if the oil companies took profits and started investing into wind power, solar power, and thermal power. Atleast when we do start running out of inexpensive fuel, they would still have the power and good for them if they run the show with clean energy.

Actually they already are.

Ask any longshoreman about what is being offloaded at the docks.

Oil companies are a very secretive lot, they be doing a whole bunch of stuff on the QT.

Do you actually believe that they aren't neck deep in this hoax?

501. Bord, appreciate the info but couldn't you post a link to it? That REALLY stretches the blog.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
501. Bord, appreciate the info but couldn't you post a link to it? That REALLY stretches the blog.


are you uesin firefox or IE??
525:

how is it off topic?

there have been many other posts that could have been flagged as off topic besides this one
Quoting atmoaggie:
So, is it official that Gro is not allowed to moan and groan about how cold it is...ever?


I love the cold, that is why I live in Ft. Lauderdale.
Quoting Tazmanian:



that photo you this posted was not on topic it was vary off topic photo in fac you been posting a lot of vary off topic photo


Taz, don't worry, she will be stoned for that later. j/k
Quoting Tazmanian:



that photo you this posted was not on topic it was vary off topic photo in fac you been posting a lot of vary off topic photo


Surprise, surprise. LOL!
Quoting Grothar:
Hey Bordonaro,

I think you missed Jackson Hole, Wyoming. We need a complete picture, if you don't mind. LOL


Jackson, Jackson Hole Airport
Last Update on 09 Dec 13:53 MST
Observation Quality is Suspect


Lt Snow

5°F
(-15°C) Humidity: %
Wind Speed: SSW 14 MPH

Barometer: 29.72 in (N/A mb)
Dewpoint: 0°F (-18°C)
Wind Chill: -12°F (-24°C)
Visibility: 4.00 Miles
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
current view at Purdue:
Quoting CaneWarning:


Taz, don't worry, she will be stoned for that later. j/k




ok
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Surprise, surprise. LOL!



LOL LOL
Quoting calusakat:

Actually they already are.

Ask any longshoreman about what is being offloaded at the docks.

Oil companies are a very secretive lot, they be doing a whole bunch of stuff on the QT.

Do you actually believe that they aren't neck deep in this hoax?



Yeah the whole concept of using alternative clean energies is a real hoax. Only the sane people like you don't want clean burning fuel.
TornadoDude, what happened to the picture?
Quoting Bordonaro:


Jackson, Jackson Hole Airport
Last Update on 09 Dec 13:53 MST
Observation Quality is Suspect


Lt Snow

5°F
(-15°C) Humidity: %
Wind Speed: SSW 14 MPH

Barometer: 29.72 in (N/A mb)
Dewpoint: 0°F (-18°C)
Wind Chill: -12°F (-24°C)
Visibility: 4.00 Miles
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:


Gee, thanks Bordonaro. I couldn't have slept without that information. Long time no talk, how have you been? Boy, I miss the old days, eh?
Quoting Tazmanian:


are you uesin firefox or IE??


Firefox...is that the problem?
Quoting Bordonaro:
TornadoDude, what happened to the picture?


what do you mean?

it shows up on mine :p
Quoting Grothar:


Gee, thanks Bordonaro. I couldn't have slept without that information. Long time no talk, how have you been? Boy, I miss the old days, eh?


Doing well! Here in Arlington, TX, with my 2 adult daughters and my drand daughter. No hurricanes in the CONUS till mid Aug 10, my guestimate! Enjoying life near the Arctic Circle, aren't ya!!
Quoting Grothar:


Gee, thanks Bordonaro. I couldn't have slept without that information. Long time no talk, how have you been? Boy, I miss the old days, eh?


Grothar!!!!!
ok guys I need a favor. I am doing a science project for school and I need to find a website that can give me yearly el nino / la nina statistics. As well as yearly precipitation data. If anyone knows a site that can help it would be greatly appreciated!!
Quoting hurricanejunky:
501. Bord, appreciate the info but couldn't you post a link to it? That REALLY stretches the blog.


Ok, I'll post a link instead next update, about 9:20pm CST
Hey Grothar,

what does jööö mean?
Quoting Bordonaro:


Doing well! Here in Arlington, TX, with my 2 adult daughters and my drand daughter. No hurricanes in the CONUS till mid Aug 10, my guestimate! Enjoying life near the Arctic Circle, aren't ya!!


Well, not quite near the Arctic at the moment, but close. It is probably the first time I wish we were closer to Hurricane Season, so we could post our nice little images and yell at reedzone and Drakoen and others. Boy, those were nice days. It's an eye, not it's a swirl, not it's a blob, no, I can see it forming. Look at the inflow, look at the outflow. We certainly could talk about storms, remember Bord?????
Quoting Grothar:


Well, not quite near the Arctic at the moment, but close. It is probably the first time I wish we were closer to Hurricane Season, so we could post our nice little images and yell at reedzone and Drakoen and others. Boy, those were nice days. It's an eye, not it's a swirl, not it's a blob, no, I can see it forming. Look at the inflow, look at the outflow. We certainly could talk about storms, remember Bord?????


Yes, it was lots of fun. O, Dr Gray expects a busy, busy 2010 Hurricane Season, 11-16 named storms, 6-10hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes. Hopefully we do not have a repeat of 2005 or 2008.

For the winter, I'm having "fun" watching the PAC NW storms wreak havoc across Canada, and the "Pineapple Express" will be busy over the next 7-10 days having fun with CA and the entire US :0).
Quoting tornadodude:
Hey Grothar,

what does jööö mean?


It is what Santa Claus says when he is in Europe. You know he actually lives in Drøbak, in Norway, not the North Pole.
Quoting Grothar:


It is what Santa Claus says when he is in Europe. You know he actually lives in Drøbak, in Norway, not the North Pole.


ha alright, did not know that,

but what does it mean?
Quoting calusakat:

Actually they already are.

Ask any longshoreman about what is being offloaded at the docks.

Oil companies are a very secretive lot, they be doing a whole bunch of stuff on the QT.

Do you actually believe that they aren't neck deep in this hoax?


Actually, as I work in the maritime shipping industry, I can tell you that oil companies are still importing oil. They are also importing (and exporting) quite a bit of oil field equipment. They aren't importing stuff like wind turbines, solar panels, or any other exotic forms of alternative energy.
Dr Masters: "It is meaningless to any statement about climate on any time scale less than ten years."

Well, if you average out your own posted graph's trend from 1998, it sure looks like a decline to me.

If that trend had been upwards, the AGW movement would have been trumpeting it non-stop.

You can't have it both ways.

And beyond that, the CO2 models don't predict what has happened over the last ten years, which does not bode well for their accuracy.
Soooo, jokes about Tiger are "on-topic" and will garner no complaints, but a cartoon from someone with the dirty "NRA" in their name making a joke about CO2 is "Off-topic" and will garner complaints from users. Interesting to know...
Strange weather in NC today.


- Winds over 50mph in the cities reported

- Winds brought 60 degree weather over ski resorts in western NC with sunshine while east of the mountains down in elevation remained in the 40s/clouds

- 2 inches of rain at my house caused flooding this morning

- mountains woke up with freezing rain that got the trees icy then warmed up over 60 and it had snow there last Saturday 3 inches

- 1dead from wind blowing over tree on car

- thousands without power from high winds




County Customers Out in North Carolina:

ALAMANCE 1,055
CABARRUS 584
CATAWBA 33
CHEROKEE 456
CLEVELAND 798
DAVIDSON 171
DURHAM 116
FORSYTH 2
GASTON 389
GRAHAM 216
GUILFORD 6,487
HENDERSON 1,631
IREDELL 35
JACKSON 1,232
LINCOLN 37
MACON 1,660
MCDOWELL 92
MECKLENBURG 1,949
ORANGE 655
RANDOLPH 63
ROWAN 934
RUTHERFORD 871
STANLY 38
SWAIN 275
TRANSYLVANIA 132
UNION 123

County Customers Out in SC

ANDERSON 569
CHEROKEE 103
GREENVILLE 1,898
GREENWOOD 465
LANCASTER 58
LAURENS 81
OCONEE 37
PICKENS 745
SPARTANBURG 2,138
YORK 482


AGW, I thought the set-up of that graph was interesting too. As a person who has had a great deal of experience with graphs, I know that they can be made to look just about any way you want them to simply by adjusting scale. When speaking of climate (the study of LONG TERM weather conditions), I'd like to see scales in the 1000's of years.
Quoting 1fullDeck:
Soooo, jokes about Tiger are "on-topic" and will garner no complaints, but a cartoon from someone with the dirty "NRA" in their name making a joke about CO2 is "Off-topic" and will garner complaints from users. Interesting to know...

I think the vibe was more about warning her that others would flag and admin would wield the ban stick...

These folks have been friends for at least 3 years.



Record Report
Statement as of 3:35 PM EDT on December 09, 2009


... Record daily high temperature set at West Palm Beach...
... All-time monthly record high temperature tied...

The high temperature at West Palm Beach reached 90 degrees today.
This breaks the record high for the date of 87 which was set in
1948. This reading also ties the all-time warmest temperature for
the month of December, last reached in 1941.
Quoting mikatnight:



Record Report
Statement as of 3:35 PM EDT on December 09, 2009


... Record daily high temperature set at West Palm Beach...
... All-time monthly record high temperature tied...

The high temperature at West Palm Beach reached 90 degrees today.
This breaks the record high for the date of 87 which was set in
1948. This reading also ties the all-time warmest temperature for
the month of December, last reached in 1941.


But is it humid or a dry heat? (j/k)
Dr Masters may want to consult Paul Hudson who
works for the Met Office in the UK. He was sent
some of the emails in question and can affirm the authenticity. Of particular concern to Hudson was the witholding of the data from
Freedom of Information requests. Don't look at
the man behind the curtain! He must be a wizard.
By the way, Paul Hudson concludes we have a cooling trend since 1998. Read the Blog, very
interesting. Third Snowfall here in NH. We use to wish for a white Xmas in the 80's.
And here from Miami NWS:
THREE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS WERE EITHER TIED OR BROKEN THIS
MORNING (MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE AND NAPLES), AND THE RECORD HIGH
FOR TODAY HAS BEEN TIED SO FAR AT MIAMI. THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONE OR TWO DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, THREATENING
THE DAILY RECORDS AT EAST COAST SITES BELOW:

CITIES THURSDAY THURSDAY
FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS

MIAMI8886 - 1896
FORT LAUDERDALE8786 - 1997
WEST PALM BEACH8786 - 1997

Margarita-nog, anyone?
Cool. I guess that would speak volumes about their political positions if they were to flag & ban for something that wasappropriate, and was along the lines of the AGW/CO2 conversations throughout the day. Very sad. I've been reading this blog for years, but haven't posted. It was good to get on here & see conversations without all of the hard-core name-calling going on, so I thought I'd register. I'm really a hurricane/weather geek, but am highly interested in the AGW happenings. Thx!
Quoting 1fullDeck:
Soooo, jokes about Tiger are "on-topic" and will garner no complaints, but a cartoon from someone with the dirty "NRA" in their name making a joke about CO2 is "Off-topic" and will garner complaints from users. Interesting to know...


Clearly Tiger Woods CAN be tied to climate change:



So we're still on topic. Thank goodness this blog is about so much more than the weather :)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


But is it humid or a dry heat? (j/k)

Longwood, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
82.6 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 64%
Dew Point: 69 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph

Pressure: 29.84 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 86 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds: Few 4800 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 23 ft

This should make people up north jealous. It actually got up to 86 earlier in the day with a heat index of 91. Only in Florida can you get this hot in December.
559. CUTE puppy in avatar! What is s/he?

Only close friend I have from New Hampshire just bought into a retirement community in Venice, FL. Flight of the "snowbirds."
Had to reference this in something I am writing for work and remembered how good it is. Downbursts, supercells, severe wx forecast discussion by Mr. Severe WX, himself.

RH Johns, CA Doswell III - Weather and Forecasting, 1992

I think everyone with an interest should read this paper: http://193.26.129.71/trainer/Documents/Resources_articole/John_and_Doswell(1992).pdf
It's not like summer, but it's humid enough. Humidity is 79% here right now.


Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


But is it humid or a dry heat? (j/k)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
559. CUTE puppy in avatar! What is s/he?

Only close friend I have from New Hampshire just bought into a retirement community in Venice, FL. Flight of the "snowbirds."


Darn right I'm jealous. New England in the summer, Florida in the winter, and twixt and tween to see fall foliage or white sand, and blue waters (on the good days.)
Earth looks frozen to me, where's all the heat
POTTERY -- After 53 years, As the World Turns has been cancelled from TV! I'm not joking, not that I ever watched it; I only indulge in "All My Children" as my soap vice.

Do you think it's my fault, egging you on to keep putting out episodes of "As the Wheel Turns...Pottery's Diary"?
Even though temps have been the warmest on record for the decade, it sure has snowed more in this decade along the gulf coast
1fullDeck: "When speaking of climate (the study of LONG TERM weather conditions), I'd like to see scales in the 1000's of years."

Well, the problem is, we are being told that we have to act anywhere from within the next couple of months to the next couple of years to prevent an ecological catastrophe, depending upon which AGW proponent is speaking.

So they are drawing analysis down to that level of scale. And it doesn't fit their own models over the last decade. So they instead say the last decade was the warmest ever, while burying the fact that the warming has topped off and is either level or declining, depending upon what you are looking at.

I've learned to look at what they say, not what they do (like all things political in nature nowadays). Copenhagen is producing as much carbon as a small country. Why not telecommute instead? Think of the carbon savings. But what's the fun in that when you can travel to a fun city like Copenhagen on your government's dime?

The head of the IPCC flew from London to India for a cricket practice, and then flew that trip again for a cricket match. Apparently saving the planet doesn't involve a curtailment of his fun, that is what the little people should be doing.

How many celebs are like John Travolta, who flies his own private energy-hogging 707 about? Or like Streisand with a large energy-hogging mansion. Or Oprah with, what, five mansions? I don't begrudge them their wealth. Just don't lecture the rest of us about saving energy.

Compare Al Gore's massive energy bill for his home to the energy-efficient design of Bush's Crawford ranch home - including a geothermal system (no, Al, the temperature in the Earth does not reach millions of degrees). But Bush is the AGW demon while AlGore is sainted. I say a pox on both of them, but the double-standard is clearly there.

I believe that leaders should lead by example, instead of acting like royalty, telling the little people to eat cake as they gorge themselves on the very substance they tell us we should be cutting back on - energy.

Unfortunately, we have precious few leaders - and that applies to both left and right political parties around the world, because instead of making them pay for their hypocrisy, we keep re-electing them.
Quoting tornadodude:
Hey Grothar,

what does jööö mean?


It is not found really in written German. It is an expression found in Southern Germany and Switzerland, which roughly translanted means "Oh, my goodness" It is an expression of surprise. Not really used in polite conversation. Similar to the American expression, YO!, before making a statement.
Quoting Grothar:


It is not found really in written German. It is an expression found in Southern Germany and Switzerland, which roughly translanted means "Oh, my goodness" It is an expression of surprise. Not really used in polite conversation. Similar to the American expression, YO!, before making a statement.


ah ok, makes sense now, thanks!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
ok guys I need a favor. I am doing a science project for school and I need to find a website that can give me yearly el nino / la nina statistics. As well as yearly precipitation data. If anyone knows a site that can help it would be greatly appreciated!!


Don't know if they have everything that you need but try: www.elnino.noaa.gov
Quoting tornadodude:


ah ok, makes sense now, thanks!


Oh, my TD. Did I use the expression "polite conversion on this blog. What was I thinking?
Jööö, I canät believe I said that, well, a pox on me!
Quoting RTLSNK:


Don't know if they have everything that you need but try: www.elnino.noaa.gov

VAbeachhurricanes: And what yearly rainfall? A single location, a region? How far back?
Quoting AGWcreationists:
1fullDeck: "When speaking of climate (the study of LONG TERM weather conditions), I'd like to see scales in the 1000's of years."

Well, the problem is, we are being told that we have to act anywhere from within the next couple of months to the next couple of years to prevent an ecological catastrophe, depending upon which AGW proponent is speaking.

So they are drawing analysis down to that level of scale. And it doesn't fit their own models over the last decade. So they instead say the last decade was the warmest ever, while burying the fact that the warming has topped off and is either level or declining, depending upon what you are looking at.

I've learned to look at what they say, not what they do (like all things political in nature nowadays). Copenhagen is producing as much carbon as a small country. Why not telecommute instead? Think of the carbon savings. But what's the fun in that when you can travel to a fun city like Copenhagen on your government's dime?

The head of the IPCC flew from London to India for a cricket practice, and then flew that trip again for a cricket match. Apparently saving the planet doesn't involve a curtailment of his fun, that is what the little people should be doing.

How many celebs are like John Travolta, who flies his own private energy-hogging 707 about? Or like Streisand with a large energy-hogging mansion. Or Oprah with, what, five mansions? I don't begrudge them their wealth. Just don't lecture the rest of us about saving energy.

Compare Al Gore's massive energy bill for his home to the energy-efficient design of Bush's Crawford ranch home - including a geothermal system (no, Al, the temperature in the Earth does not reach millions of degrees). But Bush is the AGW demon while AlGore is sainted. I say a pox on both of them, but the double-standard is clearly there.

I believe that leaders should lead by example, instead of acting like royalty, telling the little people to eat cake as they gorge themselves on the very substance they tell us we should be cutting back on - energy.

Unfortunately, we have precious few leaders - and that applies to both left and right political parties around the world, because instead of making them pay for their hypocrisy, we keep re-electing them.


No ACTUALLY THE DATA SAY THAT. REFERENCES WERE ABOVE.

And since CO2 emissions shot up near 20 percent last decade

Id say they have a point on urgency too.

And also since we have known about global warming for 20 years now and JUST elected someone willing to act your second premise is also incorrect.


But other than the dependencies in both your statements you are completely correct.
LOL Awake! Sorry about the loss of 54 years of that!
But yeah, you are prob. correct. The entire world was tuning into As The Wheel Turns, and this has caused a Tsunami of change in Media.
Oh, Well!!
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, my TD. Did I use the expression "polite conversion on this blog. What was I thinking?
Jööö, I canät believe I said that, well, a pox on me!


LOL funny thing is, is that my friend Heidi said it to me :P she said it was just like saying "ohhhh" haha
Yeah, it's funny how Gore sets an example of green living isn't it? I'm just wondering how these guys/ladies plan to get the Earth into a "static" state where the climate never changes. That would be a neat "trick" as they say. When coming out of a "Little Ice Age" one might expect the temps to rise. Maybe that's just my backward thinking though...
Good one Trinigal! On topic alright:)
JFLORIDA: "ACTUALLY THE DATA SAY THAT. REFERENCES WERE ABOVE."

Really.

Dr. Master's own graph shows a downward trend since 1998. By his own stated standard of needing at least a decade to analyze climate trends, we have a decade of decline, which clearly shows up on his own graph. And this is not predicted by the CO2 models, so it goes back to the larger question - is the increase in CO2 causing the increase, or is it natural (such as tied to changes in solar activity, which do correlate roughly to global climate changes over the past few hundred years), or is it a combination of factors? If it is a combination, how significant is the human factor?

And Obama is so serious about fighting climate change that he has the thermostat in the Oval Office cranked up to hothouse levels. At least Carter turned down the White House thermostats and put on a sweater before talking to the country about energy conservation.

And Obama's adminstration sent Air Force One and some fighter jets on a photo op over Manhattan (which scared the bejabbers out of the locals as well as spewing carbon). And loves to serve fatty wagyu beef at functions where he invites Congresscritters over for Wednesday drinks. Serve 'em chicken instead if you are so concerned about AGW.

Like I said, they say one thing and do another. No leading by example nowadays - by doing without themselves.
Quoting AGWcreationists:
JFLORIDA: "ACTUALLY THE DATA SAY THAT. REFERENCES WERE ABOVE."

Really.

Dr. Master's own graph shows a downward trend since 1998. By his own stated standard of needing at least a decade to analyze climate trends, we have a decade of decline, which clearly shows up on his own graph. And this is not predicted by the CO2 models, so it goes back to the larger question - is the increase in CO2 causing the increase, or is it natural (such as tied to changes in solar activity, which do correlate roughly to global climate changes over the past few hundred years), or is it a combination of factors? If it is a combination, how significant is the human factor?

And Obama is so serious about fighting climate change that he has the thermostat in the Oval Office cranked up to hothouse levels. At least Carter turned down the White House thermostats and put on a sweater before talking to the country about energy conservation.

And Obama's adminstration sent Air Force One and some fighter jets on a photo op over Manhattan (which scared the bejabbers out of the locals as well as spewing carbon). And loves to serve fatty wagyu beef at functions where he invites Congresscritters over for Wednesday drinks. Serve 'em chicken instead if you are so concerned about AGW.

Like I said, they say one thing and do another. No leading by example nowadays - by doing without themselves.


1. not a trend.
2. Still the warmest.

Also as Japan imposed fuel efficiency standards on autos in 1999 and drum roll, we just bought into our failing automotive industry Id say we messed up listening to the wrong people.

Ref.



In Japan, the government first imposed weight-based fuel economy standards in 1999 and revised them in 2006 %u201Cbecause the majority of vehicles sold in Japan in 2002 already met or exceeded the 2010 standards,%u201D according to a July 2007 report by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). The same report says Japan%u2019s fuel economy is currently at 41 mpg, and will have a fleetwide fuel economy of about 47 mpg in 2015
589. Maat
Quoting JFLORIDA:


No ACTUALLY THE DATA SAY THAT. REFERENCES WERE ABOVE.

And since CO2 emissions shot up near 20 percent last decade

Id say they have a point on urgency too.

And also since we have known about global warming for 20 years now and JUST elected someone willing to act your second premise is also incorrect.


But other than the dependencies in both your statements you are completely correct.


It is believed the middle ages warming event 4-6 hundred years ago saw mean global temperatures and CO2 levels higher than this past decade. My question is, is the plan to combat conditions now that are relatively weaker/less extreme than 600 years ago, when the global human population was billions of souls fewer without idustrialization, so urgent that it takes another 600 years, if at all, for the doom scenario alarmists warn us of to actually befall this planet?

As the Sun laughs at our "huge" brains from 92,955,820.5 miles away..


The equipment of storm prognosis of the State University of Colorado indicated Wednesday that season 2010 of hurricanes in the Atlantic will produce between 11 and 16 tropical storms, including of 6 to 8 hurricanes. " We anticipate one season of hurricanes in the Atlantic river basin a little on promedio" , it commented through an official notice William Gray, meteorologist of the university. The famous center assured that from 3 to 5 of storms 3 category hurricanes of or superior in the scale of intensity of Saffir-Simpson would become great.
Quoting 1fullDeck:
Yeah, it's funny how Gore sets an example of green living isn't it? I'm just wondering how these guys/ladies plan to get the Earth into a "static" state where the climate never changes. That would be a neat "trick" as they say. When coming out of a "Little Ice Age" one might expect the temps to rise. Maybe that's just my backward thinking though...


Well as indicators suggested a drop the rise is explained scientifically by greenhouse gas increase.
Do any of the separately maintained data sets have anything in common, data wise? :)


Here is an interesting letter on consensus :)

Open Letter to Secretary-General of United Nations
Quoting Maat:


It is believed the middle ages warming event 4-6 hundred years ago saw mean global temperatures and CO2 levels higher than this past decade. My question is, is the plan to combat conditions now that are relatively weaker/less extreme than 600 years ago, when the global human population was billions of souls fewer without idustrialization, so urgent that it takes another 600 years, if at all, for the doom scenario alarmists warn us of to actually befall this planet?

As the Sun laughs at our "huge" brains from 92,955,820.5 miles away..




Bottom line.

Solar flux decreased since the 50s - we still warmed.

fortunately the earth also didn't have to support 6.802 BILLION people then. Did it?
1fullDeck, JFLORIDA: "I'm just wondering how these guys/ladies plan to get the Earth into a "static" state where the climate never changes. "

IMO that isn't the real purpose - once again, look at what the leaders say, not what they do. And especially look at what lurks in the shadows.

I may disagree with JFlorida on AGW, but I don't question his sincerity or motives, and he obviously has done his own homework (and then some). I just simply disagree with his conclusions, since I approach this from a paleoclimatological viewpoint (I was studying to be a geologist in college until the job market for such soured in the early eighties).

But cap and trade? It stinks to high heaven. Politicians love it because there is no clear cost that can be assessed at the front end, unlike a straight carbon tax. And it creates countless opportunities for their campaign donors and patrons - some of what I have seen sets up opportunities for the well-connected to hoover billions from consumers. And just wait till outfits like Goldman Sachs worm their way into things.

It is a bit odd how Dr. Masters rails against corporate influences but doesn't see how many corporations have now lined up in favor of regulations such as cap and trade - for precisely the same reason - all the money that can be made from it. And it's a zero-sum economic game - for them to make it, consumers will have to fork it over - with the governments providing the muscle to make us cough it up.

I personally am in favor of a long-term (50-60 year program) to diversify energy sources, which will by its very nature significantly reduce our energy consumption and carbon generation, so in a way I can find common ground with a lot of the sincere folks who are concerned about AGW. I just ask them to step back and take a good, hard look at those who are leading the AGW parade.
595. Maat
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Bottom line.

Solar flux decreased since the 50s - we still warmed.



SOHO shows Solar activity at a gradual rise and fall in extremes from 1997-2005, (2001-2002 being the climax). 2006-present shows substantially less solar activity, in total cyclical fashion. Any coorelations? Or is this just science denial?

I dont see the negative side.



Even without catastrophic warming and pollution, within 50 to 100 years is the reasonable suggestion for all fossil fuels to expire.
wait flux or "activity."

Lol
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yeah the whole concept of using alternative clean energies is a real hoax. Only the sane people like you don't want clean burning fuel.

Ahh...another believer in The Church of the IPCC/AGW.

You are replying to my post #526...

Now take the time to read the post before you comment.

The oil and coal companies consider themselves to be 'energy suppliers' to the world. If you think for one moment that they are standing on the sidelines watching while opportunities to be involved in the switch to alternative sources are marching by, think again.

Sure they want to sell oil and coal, after all, that is their mainstay right now. They also want to be part of the gravy train that is moving into the station as The Church of the IPCC embarks on its goal of imposing "From each according to their abilities, to each according to their needs." on the unsuspecting people of the planet.

One bit of a difference though, 'to each', means to them and their cohorts and not to the wretched masses as the media would have you believe.

Are you really that naive to believe the billionaires in the coal and oil industries will simply sit back and see their dynasties melt away.

Not a chance.


Quoting Maat:


SOHO shows Solar activity at a gradual rise and fall in extremes from 1997-2005, (2001-2002 being the climax). 2006-present shows substantially less solar activity, in total cyclical fashion. Any coorelations? Or is this just science denial?

JFlorida: 1. not a trend.
2. Still the warmest.


1. Definitely a slight downward trend
2. The CO2 models cannot account for it.
3. So what is the natural component here?

Regarding Japan, this goes much deeper than just imposing fuel standards on cars. Americans are used to big lifestyles, big homes, big yards, etc. You are talking a complete cultural change. That is now starting to be driven by economic reality (the most powerful motivating force of all in such matters) - but cultural icons who think Americans should live smaller should do the same themselves. And not just buy a Prius to have in the garage, but cut waay back on the mansion size, travel on vacations less, the works. The cultural icons play a large role in shaping what Americans want in the way of a lifestyle. If they tell us we should change, they need to lead the way.

Also regarding Japan, what is very insteresting is their laws regarding incremental energy improvment with each passing year and each new energy-using widget manufactured by companies. The Japanese excel at incremental quality improvements, so it fits well with their cultural mindset. We have to figure out how to get the dang American MBAs to start thinking the same way here.
paging Grothar:

re: "polite conversion"

Is that like the nice people who come to my door in their Sunday best who keep asking me to see the light and come to their church?

We just hope & "pray" the dogs yap enough to scare them away.
Lets pull the exact number
Quoting pottery:
LOL Awake! Sorry about the loss of 54 years of that!
But yeah, you are prob. correct. The entire world was tuning into As The Wheel Turns, and this has caused a Tsunami of change in Media.
Oh, Well!!


Yup, no pain, no gain.
Hummm, na, the sun only provides 99.9% of the energy to this earth :)

Global warming is caused by radiation from the sun,5:10PM GMT 08 Dec 2009

Well at least we are not having to deal with a singularity problem Patrap, I think ?
The low pressure center of the big Midwest storm seems to be passing near us in S. Ontario to our northwest, and winds are picking up. We've had about 15 cm of snow and a little rain on top of that but it looks like all the rain will freeze and more snow will fall on top of the icy roads.
I have yet to see any response to my two questions:

1) What about the ice core samples that suggest CO2 lags behind Gobal Warming?

2) How can you can you predict forward with so little historical data?

And a new question from your blog today:
3) What would the increase or decrease in global temps be without the human factor?

If you can not answer that last question, maybe you, Mr. Masters, would be well advised to work on better short term models, since you missed it by almost 20 deg last week and my garden got freeze damage.(and it's not winter yet)
JFLORIDA: "Even without catastrophic warming and pollution, within 50 to 100 years is the reasonable suggestion for all fossil fuels to expire."

The question is, how do we get there?

Cap and trade? I don't think so.

We are now able to exploit domestic shale gas reserves - and these are massive.

We should use those gas resources as a springboard. Rather than paying money for overseas fuels, we produce our own - that lowers short-term costs for consumers AND raises taxes for governments - who can then afford to offer tax breaks for consumers to install solar/wind devices.

And consumers will be able to afford to pay for their share of the installation costs since their short-term energy costs have dropped.

A carbon study in England tried to wish away the up front consumer costs by having government pay for it. But where does government get the money? By taxing people.

We cannot solve this issue by treating government money as manna from heaven. We need to have a robust approach that curtails the amount of money we pay to the likes of the Saudis and Hugo Chavez for energy we can produce here - so we can put that money to good use here.

BTW, I am not in favor of massively increased coal use as part of such a plan - having lived in Pennsylvania Anthracite country, I've seen the devastation coal mining does to landscapes and water resources.
oh, my....some people just know how to find the ditch! LOL

...........swerve!!!!!! LOL
Evening,

Boy is it windy here in Raleigh. I am in a garage doing some graduate school work, and I here the walls shake and doors try to open. I checked the RDU weather reports, right now sustained at 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph (I didn't think that such winds would make all the noise and try to open the front door).
613. Maat
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I dont see the negative side.



Even without catastrophic warming and pollution, within 50 to 100 years is the reasonable suggestion for all fossil fuels to expire.


If that's the case, why do some lawmakers block legislation to explore for more?

Politics and profit impedes science and the resources needed to discover new understandings.

I reject anyone who "settles" on any one single scientific theory and begins the daunting task of implementing policy because of a narrow majority of career minded scientists agreeing.

So when Mount Vesuvius blows its lid again in less than 200 years, and creates a "real" warming event again (hey, volcanos erupt in a cyclical fashion too?, wow!) we'll have all those past years of wasted knowledge to blame when we dumbfoundedly look up at our trillion dollar wind turbines churn the CO2 explosion in tragic irony.


I've noticed the world was a lot cooler back in the 60's when we had Hippies. You know Peace, Love, Dube Dube Do, or something like that.
Quoting calusakat: at post # 526:

Actually they already are.

Ask any longshoreman about what is being offloaded at the docks.

Oil companies are a very secretive lot, they be doing a whole bunch of stuff on the QT.

Do you actually believe that they aren't neck deep in this hoax?


537. hurricanejunky replies

Yeah the whole concept of using alternative clean energies is a real hoax. Only the sane people like you don't want clean burning fuel.

To which calusakat replies...

Ahh...another believer in The Church of the IPCC/AGW.

Now take the time to read the post before you comment.

The oil and coal companies consider themselves to be 'energy suppliers' to the world. If you think for one moment that they are standing on the sidelines watching while opportunities to be involved in the switch to alternative sources are marching by, think again.

Sure they want to sell oil and coal, after all, that is their mainstay right now. They also want to be part of the gravy train that is moving into the station as The Church of the IPCC embarks on its goal of imposing "From each according to their abilities, to each according to their needs." on the unsuspecting people of the planet.

One bit of a difference though, 'to each', means to them and their cohorts and not to the wretched masses as the media would have you believe.

Are you really that naive to believe the billionaires in the coal and oil industries will simply sit back and see their dynasties melt away.

Not a chance.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
oh, my....some people just know how to find the ditch! LOL

...........swerve!!!!!! LOL


Huh, whad I miss? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
In the mid-1980s, Atsumu Ohmura, a geography researcher at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, found that solar radiation striking the Earth's surface had declined by more than 10% over the three previous decades. His findings appeared to contradict global warming%u2014the global temperature had been generally rising since the 70s. Less light reaching the earth seemed to mean that it should cool. Ohmura published his findings "Secular variation of global radiation in Europe" in 1989.[8] This was soon followed by others: Viivi Russak in 1990 "Trends of solar radiation, cloudiness and atmospheric transparency during recent decades in Estonia",[9] and Beate Liepert in 1994 "Solar radiation in Germany %u2014 Observed trends and an assessment of their causes".[10] Dimming has also been observed in sites all over the former Soviet Union.[11] Gerry Stanhill who studied these declines worldwide in many papers (see references) coined the term "global dimming".[12]

Independent research in Israel and the Netherlands in the late 1980s showed an apparent reduction in the amount of sunlight,[13] despite widespread evidence that the climate was actually becoming hotter. The rate of dimming varies around the world but is on average estimated at around 2%u20133% per decade. The trend reversed in the early 1990s. [1] It is difficult to make a precise measurement, due to the difficulty in accurately calibrating the instruments used, and the problem of spatial coverage. Nonetheless, the effect is almost certainly present.

The effect (2%u20133%, as above) is due to changes within the Earth's atmosphere; the value of the solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere has not changed by more than a fraction of this amount.

It is likely that at least some of this change, particularly over Europe, is due to decreases in airborne pollution. Most governments of developed nations have taken steps to reduce aerosols released into the atmosphere, which helps reduce global dimming.

Sulfate aerosols have declined significantly since 1970 with the Clean Air Act in the United States and similar policies in Europe. The Clean Air Act was strengthened in 1977 and 1990. According to the EPA, from 1970 to 2005, total emissions of the six principal air pollutants, including PM%u2019s, dropped by 53% in the US. In 1975, the masked effects of trapped greenhouse gases finally started to emerge and have dominated ever since.[37]

The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) has been collecting surface measurements. BSRN was started in the early 1990s and updated the archives in this time. Analysis of recent data reveals that the surface of the planet has brightened by about 4% in the past decade. The brightening trend is corroborated by other data, including satellite analyses.

So 10 - 4 = 6 percent dimming total .

Wow you were almost scientifically correct.
I am in a garage doing some graduate school work, and I here the walls shake

Hmmm, is that what they call it now -- what, no van because of gas prices?
620. Maat
2%u20133% 2%u20133%,

Don't you hate it when you try to modify a copy and paste and get that scribble that lets everyone know?

This has been a WU blog problem for 3 years and no one fixes it. Why?
I am looking at the map in post 603, see a lot of high wind reports to our southwest, wondering if those are actual wind damage reports or not, and if we'll get any incidents here tonight.
619. i was thinking the same thing! LOL...at least about the "working in the garage" part...

:)
Quoting pearlandaggie:
619. i was thinking the same thing! LOL...at least about the "working in the garage" part...

:)

We both found that proverbial ditch...
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I am in a garage doing some graduate school work, and I here the walls shake

Hmmm, is that what they call it now -- what, no van because of gas prices?


LOL. Actually, the garage is on a university campus, doing research work and studying for final exams.
Quoting Maat:


If that's the case, why do some lawmakers block legislation to explore for more?

Politics and profit impedes science and the resources needed to discover new understandings.

I reject anyone who "settles" on any one single scientific theory and begins the daunting task of implementing policy because of a narrow majority of career minded scientists agreeing.

So when Mount Vesuvius blows its lid again in less than 200 years, and creates a "real" warming event again (hey, volcanos erupt in a cyclical fashion too?, wow!) we'll have all those past years of wasted knowledge to blame when we dumbfoundedly look up at our trillion dollar wind turbines churn the CO2 explosion in tragic irony.




As of 2004

WASHINGTON - Health problems linked to aging coal-fired power plants shorten nearly 24,000 lives a year, including 2,800 from lung cancer, and nearly all those early deaths could be prevented if the U.S. government adopted stricter rules, according to a study released Wednesday.

Commissioned by environmental groups and undertaken by a consultant often used by the Environmental Protection Agency, the study concluded that 22,000 of those deaths are preventable with currently available technology
Coal mining:

China, in particular, has the highest number of coal mining related deaths in the world, with official statistic 6,027 deaths in 2004.[18] To compare, 28 deaths were reported in the U.S. in the same year.[19] Coal production in China is twice that in the U.S.,[20] while the number of coal miners is around 50 times that of the USA, making deaths in coal mines in China 4 times as common per worker (108 times as common per unit output) as in the USA.

Chronic lung diseases, such as pneumoconiosis (black lung) were once common in miners, leading to reduced life expectancy. In some mining countries black lung is still common, with 4000 new cases of black lung every year in the USA (4% of workers annually) and 10 000 new cases every year in China (0.2% of workers).[23] Rates may be higher than reported in some regions.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


LOL. Actually, the garage is on a university campus, doing research work and studying for final exams.

Oh, I'm sorry...I was just having pleasant daydreams and flashbacks about this:

the world was a lot cooler back in the 60's when we had Hippies. You know Peace, Love, Dube Dube Do, or something like that.
Quoting WonderWeatherWoman:
I have yet to see any response to my two questions:

1) What about the ice core samples that suggest CO2 lags behind Gobal Warming?

2) How can you can you predict forward with so little historical data?

And a new question from your blog today:
3) What would the increase or decrease in global temps be without the human factor?

If you can not answer that last question, maybe you, Mr. Masters, would be well advised to work on better short term models, since you missed it by almost 20 deg last week and my garden got freeze damage.(and it's not winter yet)


1. CO2 does often lag behind temperature changes in ice core data, but the fact that a correlation between increased CO2 concentrations and increased global temperature remains. It is basic undebated science dating back to the 18th century that states that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will eventually lead to increasing temperatures. In paleoclimate, the case has usually been CO2 following temperature, but the other way around is also shown to work. This also illustrates a dangerous positive feedback mechanism. As global temperatures warm, the biosphere turns from a carbon sink to a source, the oceans can no longer hold as much carbon due to increased heat and acidity, and methane as well as CO2 are being released from melting permafrost. CO2 levels have increased more from the start of the Industrial Revolution to the present day than it has from the peak of the last ice age to the start of the Industrial Revolution.

2. The predictions and projections are usually made through different inputs into computer models. We know the physics behind the greenhouse effect, but there are some large uncertainties such as climate sensitivity, positive feedbacks, and the effect of clouds. Therefore there is a range of possible warming scenarios, and each produces a range of possible effects on certain locales and ecosystems that we know from fields such as paleoclimatic studies and proxy data evidence.

3. Computer models are given the task of solving these types of problems, and they are compared by adding anthropogenic and natural inputs. So far, from temperature measurements from around the globe, almost all observations fit within the range expected by adding natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate, and very few are within the range that would be expected if natural factors were the only cause of climate change. If that were the case, current global temperatures would be fairly close to the temperatures recorded around 1970.
Quoting Maat:
2%u20133% 2%u20133%,

Don't you hate it when you try to modify a copy and paste and get that scribble that lets everyone know?

This has been a WU blog problem for 3 years and no one fixes it. Why?


I think it is something in the edit applet returning code for characters.

It might be a filter mechanism of some kind.
623. well, i think you found the ditch! LOL...when i was thinking about graduate work, it was either distillation studies making homemade brandy or ballistics studies reloading ammo :)

LOL
630. Liquor and Guns -- Oh My!
Don't Mess with Texas (:
Check out this line from the RDU airport weather records at the NWS (occurred 4 or 5 hours ago):

9 14:51 SW 35 G 47 10.00 Mostly Cloudy and Windy BKN035 70 58 29.43 996.3

I wonder if anyone is getting even stronger winds right now.
631. LMAO...that didn't even cross my mind! i guess that's a pretty typical combination down here :) j/k
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Check out this line from the RDU airport weather records at the NWS (occurred 4 or 5 hours ago):

9 14:51 SW 35 G 47 10.00 Mostly Cloudy and Windy BKN035 70 58 29.43 996.3

I wonder if anyone is getting even stronger winds right now.


Check the Great Lakes Region if you like. TWC just mentioned that at the tag before the commercial.
Quoting Patrap:


STRANGE LIGHTS OVER NORWAY: This morning in arctic Norway, onlookers were stunned when a gigantic luminous spiral formed in the northern sky. "We are used to seeing lots of auroras here in Norway, but this was different," says Nick Banbury of Harstad who witnessed the phenomenon on his way to work "between 7:50 and 8:00 a.m. local time." Onlooker Jan Petter Jorgensen took this photo:

When I saw this earlier on the blog I was commenting in wonder if this may have anything to do with HAARP site in Alaska
634. if you just added a "G" to the name, then it would be more accurate..."TGWC"...LOL
Ann Arbor, MI Highest Wind report:
SW 26 G 44 MPH

Detroit, MI Highest Wind report:
SW 36 G 48

Chicago, IL Highest Wind report:
SW 26 G 36

Columbus, Ohio Highest Wind report:
SW 37 G 52

Okay, I guess Ohio is the highest wind report I found so far. But, man RDU is up there with them. I guess the wind gusts sound hair-raising here because the corrugated metal roof makes more noise than I guess a typical house roof.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Oh, I'm sorry...I was just having pleasant daydreams and flashbacks about this:

the world was a lot cooler back in the 60's when we had Hippies. You know Peace, Love, Dube Dube Do, or something like that.


That was Doobie Doobie Brothers. Dube dube do is older than that. :)
639. Maat
Quoting gordydunnot:
I've noticed the world was a lot cooler back in the 60's when we had Hippies. You know Peace, Love, Dube Dube Do, or something like that.


And the tree huggers now call what trees breathe a pollutant to humanity.

The young people then, who would kill a man to save a tree, now invested in the "green movement", will turncoat on the poor trees.

Has anyone in this world run a simulation experiment to see if reducing global CO2 affects future oxygen levels in the future?

Nope. Or haven't seen it.

We have geological evidence 500-300 million years ago the atmosphere was more heavily "polluted" with CO2 because the embryophytes were larger and in greater numbers in fossil records during the Cambrian ages. And heavier CO2 levels generally means a warmer global cyclical climate.

Embryophytes today are much smaller in size and fewer in numbers. No doubt, evolved man can have a tiny percent impact on anything natural on a grand scale. But one can make the assumption the Earth has cooled since the Precambrian.

And about a hundred other things natural add to the mix. So how can we be so bold to say our ways and means on the planet have even a .001% affect in anything, even CO2? This is all based on computer models? You know the ones that are often wrong 1 out of 5 times in Hurricane prediction? There are voids in this world, human error and computer malfunction. I wonder how those computers ran in 1850, when record keeping officially began. Where do you take your locomotive sized steam driven processor to when it breaks down?

They go hand in hand.

This Over Protective behavior of climatologists today could be the Dust Bowl of the Earth if not carefully researched.

And the whole getting busted lying and fudging numbers last week really doesn't help my concerns.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
634. if you just added a "G" to the name, then it would be accurate..."TGWC"...LOL


I liked TornadoD-'s moniker the other day,
"The station formerly known as The Weather Channel"
{:
I see Dr. Masters picked up on a story i posted a few days ago. What took ya so long Dr. J.????
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


I liked TornadoD-'s moniker the other day,
"The station formerly known as The Weather Channel"
{:
Featuring "Wake Up With Annoying Al" a great way to get annoyed by Al at 6:00 am every day
Got a spinner going.

The young people then, who would kill a man to save a tree

Maat, dear one, WORDS CAN HURT...please, be more careful.

Are you aware of the famous picture of the student who was killed at Kent State during the Vietnam war protests? She was just walking across campus between classes or the like.

And she was killed by a young National Guard person who was probably scared silly himself.

One of my best friends was there. She was working for the Kent State radio station, and she's in some other pics.

It's still painful. So please, have some respect, okay. Some of us were having a fun, playful conversation...with a little weather thrown in...to avoid CC/AGW hurtful stuff, in part.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I see Dr. Masters picked up on a story i posted a few days ago. What took ya so long Dr. J.????
OK, I'll bite, what story was that?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Oh, I'm sorry...I was just having pleasant daydreams and flashbacks about this:

the world was a lot cooler back in the 60's when we had Hippies. You know Peace, Love, Dube Dube Do, or something like that.
Hello AIM, sounds like the 60's were umm ahhh, well ya know to ya
639, suggestion go plant some trees. Better use of your time.
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Hello AIM, sounds like the 60's were umm ahhh, well ya know to ya


Wonderful.
And terrible.
Actually, I stole the doobie doobie quote from soneone else that had posted earlier on the blog. It was in italics, on my oriignal posting.

Take care!
Quoting gordydunnot:
639, suggestion go plant some trees. Better use of your time.

Hope your Parks&Rec has something like this:
Link
Update on the strange lights over Norway..

UPDATE: Circumstantial evidence is mounting that the phenomenon was caused by a malfunctioning rocket, possibly an ICBM launched from a Russian submarine. A Navtex no-fly alert was issued for the White Sea on Dec. 9th, and photographers appear to have recorded the initial boost phase of a launch below the spiral (see inset). A rocket motor spinning out of control could indeed explain the spiral pattern, so this explanation seems plausible, although it has not yet been confirmed.
Sorry, Gordy, not you--639's.
Quoting Skyepony:
Update on the strange lights over Norway..

UPDATE: Circumstantial evidence is mounting that the phenomenon was caused by a malfunctioning rocket, possibly an ICBM launched from a Russian submarine. A Navtex no-fly alert was issued for the White Sea on Dec. 9th, and photographers appear to have recorded the initial boost phase of a launch below the spiral (see inset). A rocket motor spinning out of control could indeed explain the spiral pattern, so this explanation seems plausible, although it has not yet been confirmed.
Thank you for this update. I have been wondering all day if it had something to do with the military HAARP instalation which some say can alter the weather cause light simular to the northern lights etc. Again Thanks for the update
Lake Effect Snow event for Greater Buffalo, NY:



AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 100027Z - 100430Z

SNOW RATES NEAR 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DEVELOPS OVER LAKE
ERIE. THE HEAVIEST RATES CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR
NEAR THE BUFFALO METRO. VERY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW.

00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING REFLECTS STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN OVERNIGHT...CREATING FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY FOR HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPMENT AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES NEAR 6.5-7 DEGREES CELSIUS. VAD WIND
PROFILE DATA AT BUFFALO INDICATES WINDS ARE NOW
UNIDIRECTIONAL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS FAVORABLY ORIENTED 850/700 MB WIND FETCH
AROUND 250 DEGREES MAXIMIZES VERTICAL TRANSPORT OF
HEAT/MOISTURE...INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES/EFFICIENCY. ALTHOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE WIND ORIENTATION
WILL STILL SUPPORT 1-2 INCH AN HOUR RATES OR GREATER. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND
INTENSIFY THEREAFTER.

..HURLBUT.. 12/10/2009


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...BUF.

Still messing up this stuff. I meant who you were quoting.
Quoting eyesontheweather:
OK, I'll bite, what story was that?

I can't find the exact post but this was it... from my local Weather Site.

Past decade set to be warmest on record

New research from the World Meteorological Organisation shows that the past decade has been the warmest since records began 160 years ago.

The United Nations weather agency and Britain's Met Office presented their findings at the Copenhagen climate change summit.

The figures show a steady rise in temperatures over the past four decades, with 2009 listed as likely to be the fifth warmest year since records began in 1850.

Doctor Vicky Pope is the head of climate change advice at the Met office.

"In the last decade we have seen that the temperatures haven't gone up very much, but they are clearly a lot warmer then they were in the previous decade," she said.

Some of the UN's weather data was provided by Britain's University of East Anglia which is at the centre of a row over leaked emails which appear to suggest that the theories around man-made climate change are not solid.

The secretary-general of the WMO, Michel Jarraud, also observed that Australia has so far had its third warmest year on record.

"There were above-normal temperatures in most parts of the continents, and only in USA and Canada there were significant areas with cooler-than-average conditions," he said.

"But in large parts of Southern Asia, Central Africa, these regions are likely to have the warmest year on record."

Mr Jarraud says the year has also been notable for extreme weather events.

"China with the third warmest year in the last 50 years, heat waves in Italy, UK, France, Belgium, Germany, an extreme heat wave in India, and Australia the third warmest year on record with three exceptional heat waves," he said.

Those heatwaves hit south-eastern Australia in January, February and November and the sub-tropical east in August.

A climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology's National Climate Centre, Blair Trewin, is not surprised that the WMO has highlighted those events and the deadly February bushfires.

"It's not often you see long-term stations ... break monthly temperature records by two, three, four degrees, and to have it happen three times in the same year in the same continent is pretty significant," he said.

The WMO report also observes an El Nino weather pattern began mid-year. That pattern is dreaded by Australian farmers because it means lower-than-average rainfall, particularly in the east.

Mr Trewin says the El Nino pattern is well-established.

"So far the impacts in Australia have been a bit more modest than those of the last two in 02 and 06," he said.

"It's interesting to note that in the strongest El Nino years, what you tend to see is that the year in which the El Nino ends tends to be a particularly warm one.

"Globally we saw that in 1998 and it will be interesting to see if something similar happens in 2010."

The WMO will release a final report on 2009 next March and Mr Jarraud says at this stage, it is impossible to predict what global conditions will be like next year.

"On top of the trend there's a lot of variability, so we are in a warming trend, we have no doubt about that, but what will be the prediction for next year I would be very, very hesitant to tell you that," he said.

- ABC
Cleo
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 DEC 2009 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 13:10:46 S Lon : 70:55:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 977.3mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.3mb

Center Temp : -74.4C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Leaving warmer waters behind
One large volcano eruption like Kracatoa (spelling?) & all of these discussions will be a distant memory...
To which calusakat replies...

Ahh...another believer in The Church of the IPCC/AGW.


..is this your standard insult for those that do not agree with you? Is it necessary to be so rude.. do you really think it helps convince anyone that you have a good point.. I've been reading your posts for days and I'm convinced you are plenty smart enough to make your points without getting smarmy.
There is a group Americans for prosperity that was speaking at Copenhagen they don't believe AGW exists. A group of kids crashed their speech. It ended being broadcast live to 40 denial-a-palooza fests across the USA that were happening at the same time. The kids were labeled Nazi youth.. Here's the you tube...GREEN JOBS NOW!
That was a pretty shameful display. people afraid of dissenting opinions. Sounds familiar... Isn't this EXACTLY what some of the AGW research scientists are charged with? Squashing dissent rather than using verifiable facts to disprove it? maybe this is standard practice. Is there a hand-book or something?
I am going to post now and this is how "I" feel about GW..... Well let me see "I" just donot belive in it at all...... I feel that this is all apart of Life..... Some years are going to be Hotter and then some years will be Colder...... It is all part of "The Cycle".... Now I understand there is debate of who is right or who is wrong, which I will not get into...... I think if you follow the money you might just get the answer you are looking for.... Then on the other hand did the leak of the "E-Mails" really say anything or are they true in what information was left out to change any out come in "Data"..... Who really knows...... "I" feel it is just a cycle and we may even have an early "Ice Age" starting now..... Heck it snowed in New Oreans LA last year and that has not happened in a long time (can't remember the date sorry).... and now we are having one of the worst "Winter Storms" every seen this time of year.... Oh yea lets not forget the White Christmas Houston TX had in 04 that was over 4", then this year just a week ago they had another winter storm..... First time ever this early....Hey remember it is not "Winter"yet, So it is just how you feel about it.....

Now I will get off my soap box and let someone else have there say but remember I will not debate anyone on this matter this is just how "I" feel about it.....

Taco :0)
None of the climate scientists have been charged with sqashing dissent or falsifying data of any sort, 1fulldeck.
Post 655. Thank You Aussie, interesting and informative read. Again Thank You!
Tonight's theory on where the hacked email came from is they were leaked after being prepared for release at Steve McIntyre's request via the freedom of info act, that in the end was denied by the FOI folks..
Quoting indianrivguy:
To which calusakat replies...

Ahh...another believer in The Church of the IPCC/AGW.


..is this your standard insult for those that do not agree with you? Is it necessary to be so rude.. do you really think it helps convince anyone that you have a good point.. I've been reading your posts for days and I'm convinced you are plenty smart enough to make your points without getting smarmy.

Actually, it is more like turn about is fair play.

The beliefs of those who see the data as not true, are regarded as a justification by those IPCC/AGW folks to call us denialists, contrarians, and personally, when it was assumed that I didn't know how to use Google, that I was ignorant as well. Totally ignoring my numerous references to searches using Google in the previous week.

But all that is neither here nor there.

I cannot let the striking similarities between some of the latest comments and bumper stickers from years earlier go by without out making an observation regarding those similarities. Note that those original bumper stickers were from religious folks who had dropped any pretense of individual thought and comments made the IPCC/AGW crowd,on this very thread, seem to parallel that same lack of individual thought.

Call it a weakness if you like.

Saying it, AGW, is settled and that is all there is to it, is no different than those religious bumper stickers and the connection to The Church of the IPCC/AGW was a natural progression.

I wonder if they will ever be able to prove who hacked or leaked the emails.
They haven't?! Maybe you misunderstand my use of the word "charged". I am not speaking in the legal sense, though if justice exists, that should probably come later. I mean charged in the sense of "we the public". They spoke of not allowing dissenting work to be published, changing the meaning of "peer reviewed" etc. They fudged the numbers to look better graphically since the actual data showed no warming for the last decade or so, wich they admitted was a "travesty". Now, you can believe anything you wish as to why they would do this, but a good scientist always says... don't argue with the data. A good scientists also calls a theory a theory, and doesn't confuse correlation with cause. In this cae, all of these rules have been broken, and I if nobody else do "charge" them of falsifying data and at the very least "attempting" to squash dissent. As one of the millions of people who will pay the price (both here and for the developing world) if bad science is used to make policy decisions, I have every right to question their methods, and they should be open & honest with their research. Based on their feelings about the Freedom of Information acts in various countries, it would appear that they did not feel the same. I'm thinking a man guilty of nothing would be unlikely to so quickly step down from his position. As stated before though, I certainly respect your right to your opinions. The truth will eventually be known, I just hope it's not too late for our country.
Latest figures show that CO2 increased 1.88 ppm in the 12 months to November, up from 1.40 ppm in the 12 months to October.

Link

And the latest graph of humans changing the air:






And the Vostok CO2 record for the past 420,000 years, showing how our fossil fuel emissions have increased CO2 in the atmosphere far beyond any natural level in hundreds of thousands of years.


It should come as little shock that the Canadian delegation ended its first day in Copenhagen with the dishonour of a fossil of the day award, bestowed on countries with the worst performance at international climate negotiations.

In his first public address at the conference, Canada's chief negotiator, Michael Martin, reaffirmed this country's position on greenhouse gas emissions -- which work out to a reduction of three per cent below 1990 levels. That's far below the 20 per cent reduction that the European Union has settled on and distant from the 20 to 40 per cent reduction that climate scientists tell us we have to make in order to avoid a catastrophic rise in global temperatures.

Canada has been called such harsh names as "thuggish, petro-state", "climate crook", and the world's "dirty old man".

It seems a logical political move to make, given the level of public support for stronger emissions targets. In a poll released yesterday, 64 per cent of respondents said industrialized nations ought to commit to higher and harder targets than developing ones, and 81 per cent wanted Canada to act independently of the U.S.

There have been arrests on Parliament Hill, occupations of MPs' offices and protests around the country. People who have never waved a banner in their lives are joining in the protest of how Canada is behaving in Copenhagen, including a minister in Toronto who has sworn to fast for seven days and stake out at the constituency offices of Harper and Prentice. Indeed, churches are just one of many special interest groups joining the call for strong climate leadership.
Quoting Patrap:


ok Patrap quit pulling my leggs they are already long enough..... so in about a 9 days from now we all along the Gulf Coast will have Snow????

Taco :0)
The GFS performed well on the Snow Friday a week ago here.

Thats a Big Ol Artic Dip shown Next Friday the 18th,..one almost like Dec 23 1989
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Latest figures show that CO2 increased 1.88 ppm in the 12 months to November, up from 1.40 ppm in the 12 months to October.LinkAnd the lastest graph of humans changing the air:

And the Vostok CO2 record for the past 420,000 years, showing how our fossil fuel emissions have increased CO2 in the atmosphere far beyond any natural level in hundreds of thousands of years.

Wow, a volcano nearby and the atmospheric co2 is measured there. ?????????

Talk about bad instrument placement.

Perfectly natural for the AGW crowd I guess.


No argument here that CO2 is increasing, just question how much of the warming that occurred up until a decade or so ago is due to the CO2. Nobody on this planet can say for sure. I have no argument against lowering emissions. I'm an outdoorsman and spend more of my money through licenses and fees to improve the enviroenment than does the average Joe. Only 10 - 20% of CO2 comes from the use of fossil fuels, so can it be said that only 10 - 20% of any increase that may have occurred in the past 100 years or so, or that may occur in the future is due to fossil fuels?
Quoting Patrap:
The GFS performed well on the Snow Friday a week ago here.

Thats a Big Ol Artic Dip shown Next Friday the 18th,..one almost like Dec 23 1989


That would be so much Fun just to have it a week before Christmas.... Yes you are right GFS was right on with last weeks winter storm....

Taco :0)
I would LOVE to see that snow make its way to Jacksonville, Florida!
Quoting Patrap:
The GFS performed well on the Snow Friday a week ago here.

Thats a Big Ol Artic Dip shown Next Friday the 18th,..one almost like Dec 23 1989


How many days in advance from Fridays snow day did the GFS predict the snow for us Pat?
Quoting Skyepony:
It should come as little shock that the Canadian delegation ended its first day in Copenhagen with the dishonour of a fossil of the day award, bestowed on countries with the worst performance at international climate negotiations.

In his first public address at the conference, Canada's chief negotiator, Michael Martin, reaffirmed this country's position on greenhouse gas emissions -- which work out to a reduction of three per cent below 1990 levels. That's far below the 20 per cent reduction that the European Union has settled on and distant from the 20 to 40 per cent reduction that climate scientists tell us we have to make in order to avoid a catastrophic rise in global temperatures.

Canada has been called such harsh names as "thuggish, petro-state", "climate crook", and the world's "dirty old man".

It seems a logical political move to make, given the level of public support for stronger emissions targets. In a poll released yesterday, 64 per cent of respondents said industrialized nations ought to commit to higher and harder targets than developing ones, and 81 per cent wanted Canada to act independently of the U.S.

There have been arrests on Parliament Hill, occupations of MPs' offices and protests around the country. People who have never waved a banner in their lives are joining in the protest of how Canada is behaving in Copenhagen, including a minister in Toronto who has sworn to fast for seven days and stake out at the constituency offices of Harper and Prentice. Indeed, churches are just one of many special interest groups joining the call for strong climate leadership.

Isn't violence a wonderful thing?

When you realize that you are beginning to lose the day...send in the thugs. Yeah that's the ticket.

Didn't that sort of thing happen in pre-WW II Germany?

Anyone care to notice who is doing the name calling once again??? I think I will stay with describing them as followers of The Church of the IPCC/AGW because the alternative description is so totally abhorant, even for me.



About a week to 6 days before it.
Um an inactive volcano. And there is no sign in the data that any volcanic eruption has ever affected the data in the slightest way.
679.
Congratulations. Worst post of the Month.
684. unf97
Quoting Patrap:
The GFS performed well on the Snow Friday a week ago here.

Thats a Big Ol Artic Dip shown Next Friday the 18th,..one almost like Dec 23 1989


Interesting comparison. Dec 23, 1989 was the last time we received a significant snowfall here in JAX.
Quoting Patrap:
UNYSIS 10Day GFSX Day 10,18 Dec

Thanks, and thanks for the link!
Quoting pottery:
679.
Congratulations. Worst post of the Month.

Well thank you!

I know that the truth is difficult for you to accept and your award is proof positive that I reached the right nerve.

Again, thanks for the award! I have the perfect place for it all picked out.


Kracatoa (again, not sure of the spelling & it's not worth a search) cooled the average temps for the whole planet. Now, let me be honest here in saying that this came from the show on Discovery a week or so ago about volcanos. Due primarily to ash & sulfur getting into the stratosphere & circulating around the entire planet, temperatures fell around the world, and some places apparently never really had a summer. I'm sure you know that a new volcano has risen above sea-level now & is quite active. When it finally blows again, it is thought that the eruption would be similar to the last... explosive and having a major effect on global climate. Maybe we can have an anti-eruption conference on global cooling! Okay, kidding... can't help myself.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Um an inactive volcano. And there is no sign in the data that any volcanic eruption has ever affected the data in the slightest way.

Of course not.

Wink, wink, nudge, nudge, say no more, say no more. (Monty Pythons Flying Circus)

686, Calusakat.
LOL to that.
But you are absolutely correct. The truth is hard to accept, apparently.
For some folks.
Actually, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels comprise about half the CO2 in the air now.

There is a fallacy used dishonestly by some global warming deniers, and repeated out of ignorance by others, that fossil fuel emissions represent 3% or 5% or 10% of CO2 emissions.

In fact, each year the biosphere emits and absorbs about 200 billion tons of CO2. Net emissions of CO2 from the bioshpere are zero

Humans emit 30 billion tons of CO2 from fossil fuels and cement production every year. Humans net addition of CO2 is 30 billion tons, half of which is absorbed in the ocean and half added to the atmosphere.

And Carbon 14 ratios prove that fossil fuel consumption represents about half the CO2 in the air currently. Carbon 14 is generated in the upper atmosphere by interactions with cosmic rays--carbon released from fossil fuels has no Carbon 14 because it has all decayed away.

How much our CO2 fossil fuel emissions will increase temperatures is still an open question. But what is not in question is that human fossil fuel consumption is dramatically increasing CO2, in fact has already increased CO2 levels, to far beyond any natural levels in the past half million years.
Quoting Skyepony:
Update on the strange lights over Norway..

UPDATE: Circumstantial evidence is mounting that the phenomenon was caused by a malfunctioning rocket, possibly an ICBM launched from a Russian submarine. A Navtex no-fly alert was issued for the White Sea on Dec. 9th, and photographers appear to have recorded the initial boost phase of a launch below the spiral (see inset). A rocket motor spinning out of control could indeed explain the spiral pattern, so this explanation seems plausible, although it has not yet been confirmed.


Can't you just see it? The sub is docked, half the crew is on shore leave, the two guys in the missile section are sitting around getting drunk on Vodka and talking about the ICBM's. The first guy says you know, without the warhead, its really just a giantic bottle rocket like we use to shoot off when we were kids. He looks at the other guy and he starts to grin, then the other guy grins, and the rest as they say is history. LOL
Yep. Unfortunately my mom made me move to KY about two months before that snow. I spoke to some of my friends who had worked downtown with me back then after I moved back a few months later. They were riding aluminum kitchen sheetpans down the Main Street bridge! I've seen plenty of snow in my moves around the mid-west, but never anything more than flakes here at home in Jax. :(
Quoting Patrap:
The GFS performed well on the Snow Friday a week ago here.

Thats a Big Ol Artic Dip shown Next Friday the 18th,..one almost like Dec 23 1989

Like I said last night, we really do not need it THAT cold. That couple of days was, umm, problematic.

But, I don't think it is quite setting up to be that cold. A cold front, sure, but not that cold.
694. xcool
gfs ooz come soon
Well, I assume that is a backdoor way to call me ignorant. Good play. Name-calling that won't get you flagged! I am guessing that the people who provide the numbers to the contrary of those that you cite might sling that back at you. I suppose cattle are greenhouse gas nuetral? They produce CO2, methane, and I would guess some nice sulfur compounds as well. Every man & woman walking the planet does the same (based on the Beano posts from earlier today this crowd surely does!) Are we & the cattle somehow greenhouse gas nuetral? Must be the same theory that makes this health care gig deficit neutral. You are truely a wealth of information, so maybe you can help me to lessen my apparent greenhouse gas ignorance.
Is it true that 2000 or so scientists have signed onto the IPCC research as being valid?
howdy all
Hey, did anyone see this?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/04/climategate-the-smoking-code/

Anyone remember the 70's? We were entering the ice age and all the doom and gloom that we humans were causing that too....

For some people, this climate thing has become religious. Interesting.

What is your take?
Being a child of the 70's I remember the talk of the "coming ice-age" very well. It was proven beyond doubt. Scientific concensus was clear... sounds vaguely familiar... wait... it's coming to me... where do I know this from?... Man how 20 short years changes everything...
31,000 Ignorant Scientists speak...

Global Warming Petition
We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.

There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.












This petition has been signed by over 31,000 American scientists
Quoting RTLSNK:


Can't you just see it? The sub is docked, half the crew is on shore leave, the two guys in the missile section are sitting around getting drunk on Vodka and talking about the ICBM's. The first guy says you know, without the warhead, its really just a giantic bottle rocket like we use to shoot off when we were kids. He looks at the other guy and he starts to grin, then the other guy grins, and the rest as they say is history. LOL
Maybe Uppy's Uncle Vladmir?
1fulldeck, what you are saying is completely false about scientific consensus in the 1970s warning about ice ages. In fact, scientific papers in the 1970s warned about global warming more than global cooling by a wide margin.

Link
703. chawk
Doc, Please explain your theory on why data and reports from the '80s were thrown away? While individual meteorologist may only make 30 to 100K for endless hours of work, Dr Jones received nearly 22 million in grants over the last ten years only to end up at the center of this controversy. I would feel a lot more trusting of this site if you would allow information from scientist who do not beleive Global Warming is man made and if you would address the entire story about the email fiasco. This is your site and you certainly have every right to sell your beliefs. All of the countries who's news papers printed articles supporting the Copenhagen agenda today, know that AGW is on a roll to bring down the greatest financial institution in the world, the USA. For scientist that provide supporting information for the new age taxing regimes, there will always be a job. For the farmer,carpenter,mechanic, etc there will be a long period of no jobs. AGW if true will take care of it's self in the form of population reducing disasters. If it is not true, and we continue to legislate as if it is the same population reduction will occur at the hands of a bunch of lying politicians.
I will defer from posting tonight due to drinking too much wine with my brother after finishing my final exam!
I would feel a lot more trusting of this site if you would allow information from scientist who do not beleive Global Warming is man made

**********************************************************************************************
There is nothing that prohibits a scientist from signing up and posting on this blog or starting his own.
Well, St. Simons, that's not how it was reported in the media. Not sure how old you are, but if you were around then you should know. The scientific concensus now is not that AGW is occurring either as evidenced by the large number who have signed off against there being verifiable proof, but is still being reported by many politicians and "news" outlets that the concensus is there. It also seems to be that you say this despite the many scientists who disagree. I say we play a part in whatever climate change comes to be, but I don't think we should crush our already crippled econmoy to make changes all at once. I prefer incremental changes. I also do not believe we should forgo our sovereinty to be subjected to the whims of the UN, and to support others with my tax dollar. As it stands now we only keep 60 or 70% of the money we earn if we are lucky. If I engage in wealth redistribution I will do it of my own accord. I give money out of every paycheck to help those less fortunate, I work with troubled and abused kids every day where I also give of myself and my wallet. I should not be "forced" into world charity. If these guys are so worried about the planet, then they should lower their standard of living before asking me to lower mine when I can just get by as it is.
Ah the 70's....

Time Magazine and Newsweek: The Ice age! Massive Global Cooling!

http://neoconexpress.blogspot.com/2007/02/newsweek-1975-scientists-predict.html#links

http://neoconexpress.blogspot.com/2007/02/time-like-newsweek-predicted-iceage-in.html#

Same alarmist soundings only now it is "Global Warming!"

(yawn)
No atmo..not as cold as 89' for sure,..but precip may be as great,if we Lucky this time round.
Chawk, I assume they could post, but I agree with the rest of your post. I've also noticed that proponents of AGW on here today choose carefully which questions they answer. I've asked a number of questions so far that have been ignored oh so well.
Thanks Thinker. Thought I might have to call mom & get her to send me her old mags for StSimons. :)
Quoting Patrap:
No atmo..not as cold as 89' for sure,..but precip may be as great,if we Lucky this time round.


Pat, I hope we get it like last year and 04 here because last week was kind of a dud for us here in New Orleans, lots of hope but only sleet..ha
Ah. The media. I am sure you have complete faith in the mainstream media (which is all there was in the 1970s). There were some alarmist pieces published in the media by reporters in the 1970s, during and after a series of unusually cold winters in the 1970s.

However, between 1965 and 1979 there were 71 scientific papers on the subject of climate change. 44 papers predicted global warming. 7 predicted global cooling. 20 were inconclusive/neutral.

So 44 papers from 1965 to 1979 predicting global warming. 7 predicting global cooling.

More than 6 to 1 in favor of global warming! Wow!

Source: Link
Quoting weatherman874:


Pat, I hope we get it like last year and 04 here because last week was kind of a dud for us here in New Orleans, lots of hope but only sleet..ha


Was at LSU Last Fri Nite..was snowing like a Banshee,..drive back to NOLA was treacherous at best
Quoting theshepherd:
I would feel a lot more trusting of this site if you would allow information from scientist who do not beleive Global Warming is man made

**********************************************************************************************
There is nothing that prohibits a scientist from signing up and posting on this blog or starting his own.


I see his point however.

I am not taking any side on this issue on this blog but if I am presenting a case, and am ultimately trying to convince people that my point of view is the correct view, then I will point out his arguments and then counter them with a convincing argument that uses examples from their side and my side that prove that my data is more accurate.

The point is to make the weaknesses in your opponent's argument clearer, thus making them question their logic and begin to ponder your point of view.

Now, if you do not use your opponent's point of view for an example, then you appear biased. This automatically turns your antagonists off from your argument, and they usually dismiss it instantly. However, if you tend to use illustrations from their arguments, and then counter them with your arguments, you make them think. Once you get your opponent into thinking mode instead of defensive mode, then you have an opportunity to actually have a valid debate with your opponent, thus allowing you the chance to persuade your opposition and to actually present a sound, convincing, logical argument that presents your point of view in the most effective manner possible.
715. xcool
so 1fulldeck, I have shown that the scientific consensus was strongly in favor of global warming. And sourced it.

What are your sources for you saying that climate scientists were warning of a new ice age in the 1970s?

Because, as I have proven, saying that the climate scientist community in the 1970s was warning of ice ages is completely false.
I have as much faith in their numbers as yours. Little, but not much. You didn't answer my question about how many scientists have signed onto the IPCC Global warming / climate change (whichever you choose to call it this week). Is it the 2000 or so that Obama's science Czar stated? Should I trust them or the more than 30,000 that have signed off against it? If it were not for the "media" reporting on this it would not be the story that it has become, so given your views you should love them. Exerpt from Newsweek concerning scientific views on the subject back then.
A survey completed last year by Dr. Murray Mitchell of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reveals a drop of half a degree in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968. According to George Kukla of Columbia University, satellite photos indicated a sudden, large increase in Northern Hemisphere snow cover in the winter of 1971-72. And a study released last month by two NOAA scientists notes that the amount of sunshine reaching the ground in the continental U.S. diminished by 1.3% between 1964 and 1972.

To the layman, the relatively small changes in temperature and sunshine can be highly misleading. Reid Bryson of the University of Wisconsin points out that the Earth's average temperature during the great Ice Ages was only about seven degrees lower than during its warmest eras - and that the present decline has taken the planet about a sixth of the way toward the Ice Age average. Others regard the cooling as a reversion to the "little ice age" conditions that brought bitter winters to much of Europe and northern America between 1600 and 1900 - years when the Thames used to freeze so solidly that Londoners roasted oxen on the ice and when iceboats sailed the Hudson River almost as far south as New York City.

Just what causes the onset of major and minor ice ages remains a mystery. "Our knowledge of the mechanisms of climatic change is at least as fragmentary as our data," concedes the National Academy of Sciences report. "Not only are the basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key questions."

Meteorologists think that they can forecast the short-term results of the return to the norm of the last century. They begin by noting the slight drop in overall temperature that produces large numbers of pressure centers in the upper atmosphere. These break up the smooth flow of westerly winds over temperate areas. The stagnant air produced in this way causes an increase in extremes of local weather such as droughts, floods, extended dry spells, long freezes, delayed monsoons and even local temperature increases - all of which have a direct impact on food supplies.

"The world’s food-producing system," warns Dr. James D. McQuigg of NOAA's Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment, "is much more sensitive to the weather variable than it was even five years ago." Furthermore, the growth of world population and creation of new national boundaries make it impossible for starving peoples to migrate from their devastated fields, as they did during past famines.

Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.


and with that, a good night. Have a good one StSimons. Try not to exhale too much tonight. :)
Yeah, nothing prohibits someone from starting their own blog, other than, perhaps, ignorance.
By this time, St. Simons, you should realize they don't need documentation or reliable sources. What they need is a wish and a prayer, and guess what. It ain't happenin'
Anyway, celebration is over. Tomorrow is another work day. goodnight.
I don't know how many scientists have signed any petition, how many are climate scientists, and how many are petroleum geologists.

And I ask, why did you state in post 699 I remember the talk of the "coming ice-age" very well. It was proven beyond doubt. Scientific concensus was clear...

When the truth is that papers by climate scientists in the 1965-1979 period projected global warming instead of global cooling by a more than 6 to 1 margin?

Link

Newsweak, Tame and Useless News and World Distort are not scientific publications ;)
chicklit, no it's probably not coming. But the myth that climate scientists in the 1970s were predicting an ice age is false, and should be shown to be false. Putting up proof of that is good to show people who don't know the truth about it.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Ah. The media. I am sure you have complete faith in the mainstream media (which is all there was in the 1970s). There were some alarmist pieces published in the media by reporters in the 1970s, during and after a series of unusually cold winters in the 1970s.

However, between 1965 and 1979 there were 71 scientific papers on the subject of climate change. 44 papers predicted global warming. 7 predicted global cooling. 20 were inconclusive/neutral.

So 44 papers from 1965 to 1979 predicting global warming. 7 predicting global cooling.

More than 6 to 1 in favor of global warming! Wow!

Source: Link

What CrackerJacks box did that math come from?

71 scientific papers...44 predicted global warming and that equals a six to one in favor of global warming? By normal math, it's not even 2 to 1.

No small wonder The Church of the IPCC/AGW is so popular. They even use their own math to support their position. I guess it is easier that way. No thinking involved.

Please, I have read your posts over the past year or two and you are quite intelligent and when you read something from the Church of the IPCC/AGW, take the time to see if it really adds up.



You didn't prove it false, you proved that some agreed that it was cooling. This article uses both NOAA and the Academy of Science as sources. NOAA has obviously changed its toon, but why trust them any more now than then. Especially given they are also now being accused of fudging their numbers. Again, read my other post unless you are too impatient to make your own point. I don't disagree that changes are needed, I disagree with the scope and timing because I would like to see this country survive in its current form (Capitalist vs Socialist). Anyone preferring a Euro model is welcome to transplant. If tis was occurring on its own, without also attempting health-care and the myriad of other deficit/economy crippling ideas of this admin, I would be less concerned. I notice again that you respond to only what you choose. No notice of the fact that I said it was reported then that scientific concensus was clear as it is reported now, despite the fact that this is false.
calusakat, 44 papers predicted global warming, 7 predicted global cooling. The ratio is over 6 to 1. As I said.
Yes, I said toon because some of this stuff would be laughable if not so dangerous. Good night all.
Drew Brees coming up on Jay Leno fyi, think it might be a repeat...not sure. NBC.

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Drew Brees coming up on Jay Leno fyi, think it might be a repeat...not sure. NBC.



I'm watching, how you doing?
Nope it's new.

I'm okay, thanks. Blog got rougher, so I watched a movie. Talk to ya later, maybe!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Nope it's new.

I'm okay, thanks. Blog got rougher, so I watched a movie. Talk to ya later, maybe!


haha yeah, blog got rough, so I went to a budget meeting for my fraternity, pretty entertaining :P
1fulldeck, I did prove what you said about the scientific consensus in the 1970s in favor of ice ages is false. You said "scientific consensus was clear". Yes it was clear in favor of global warming, with 44 papers projecting global warming and 7 papers projecting global cooling. It is absolutely false to say that the scientific consensus in the 1970s was in favor of global cooling.
Way to represent Purdue, Drew! He just sang our fight song on the Jay Leno show, Boiler Up! haha
Quoting tornadodude:
Way to represent Purdue, Drew! He just sang our fight song on the Jay Leno show, Boiler Up! haha


Okay, he's totally adorable. Up there with Joe Montana. IN & OUT BURGER, yesssss! Wish we had them here in the East.

Where did he grow up? (I understand he went to Purdue? j/k)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Okay, he's totally adorable. Up there with Joe Montana. IN & OUT BURGER, yesssss! Wish we had them here in the East.

Where did he grow up? (I understand he went to Purdue? j/k)


haha He is by far one of my favorite players :P

Um, I think he is from Austin, Texas. hmmm, I'm from Texas and I go to Purdue, therefore I must be destined to be a star quarterback ha
jk
731. Don't let these guys get your goat. Conveniently they drop out of the argument when outwitted.
I'm not letting my goat get got tonight. I'm just waiting for some cool air to get here. Shouldn't be too much longer :)

Quoting tornadodude:


haha He is by far one of my favorite players :P

Um, I think he is from Austin, Texas. hmmm, I'm from Texas and I go to Purdue, therefore I must be destined to be a star quarterback ha

Absolutely. STAR Monday morning QUARTERBACK.

Keep Austin Weird!! (Great city slogan!)

SO...a budget meeting was fun.
One of these things is not like the other one...

Wonder when our next snow is coming?...local weather should be on in a few minutes.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Absolutely. STAR Monday morning QUARTERBACK.

Keep Austin Weird!! (Great city slogan!)

SO...a budget meeting was fun.
One of these things is not like the other one...

Wonder when our next snow is coming?...local weather should be on in a few minutes.


haha awesome slogan :P

yeah, budget meeting, woo hoo lol

Um, snow, it is still snowing here, and maybe some more on Friday night, then again next week
Quoting barryweather:
731. Don't let these guys get your goat. Conveniently they drop out of the argument when outwitted.


I thought one had to have wit before they were outwitted?? Morning barryweather, how are doing, any snow by you?
731, what were the media and the government doing back then? Did the numbers matter if nobody saw them? :)

The Fiction Of Climate Science
Quoting barryweather:
731. Don't let these guys get your goat. Conveniently they drop out of the argument when outwitted.

(also re 714, T-Dude, and St.S.IslandGAGuy)

A few nights ago, maybe even a week, it was just AtmoAggie and Grothar, give and take, lightly sparring and blocking, like fencing with great form and grace, structure & unwritten rules of courtesy. It was a beautiful thing to observe...I didn't understand 5/6 of it...didn't matter. I had no idea Grothar knew about as much scientific data as Atmo because he's stays on the light side here much of the time, to offset the seriousness of those he works with.

Wow, sure was different from the nasty shenanigans we see here sometimes. I just lurked; kind of felt like a voyeur but didn't want to interrupt the "dance."
whoaaaa,

I totally just remembered this!

Remember the guy who asked me to go sailing with him today???

Well, he flipped his sailboat in the winds today, and had to swim to shore, he and his two friends sat on the boat for 15 mins trying to warm up, then made a swim for it. The boat is still on the lake, so thank God I did not go!

They are ok, although they were quite cold!
Use the Force Luke..trust your instincts
Quoting Patrap:


Was at LSU Last Fri Nite..was snowing like a Banshee,..drive back to NOLA was treacherous at best


Serious flooding by my house. 4 inches of rain, almost 6 for the month has cause lagoons and bayous to overflow across roads
Quoting Grothar:


I thought one had to have wit before they were outwitted?? Morning barryweather, how are doing, any snow by you?

Does being a half wit count? :)
Quoting Ossqss:
731, what were the media and the government doing back then? Did the numbers matter if nobody saw them? :)

The Fiction Of Climate Science


The media and the government were still preocuppied with the aftermath of Watergate and the resignation of President Nixon and the ultimate pardon of him by President Ford just a few months before. The country was more concerned with the stability of the nation rather than the weather. In those days we just peeked outside and if it was cloudy we took our umbrellas. This was all pre-Weather Channel and pre-animosity. All in all it wasn't a bad time. One of the many good things President Nixon did was establish the EPA; among some of the things he did that was not so nice.

Here is a little link for you on the EPA.

Link
Quoting PcolaDan:

Does being a half wit count? :)


my friend who went sailing today was a no wit :PP
Are all three okay? Any hypothermia?

That is too darn close to the story about the football players. Wait until Bordonaro hears.
And thanks for remembering to tell us; I kept meaning to ask you about that, Matt.
tornadodude, one thing a lot of people don't realize is how dangerous frozen spray accumulating on sails, masts, and spars can be. It can add up to tons of ice very quickly, and make the boat get top heavy, unmaneuverable, and unstable. Was it well below freezing when he went out?

He is very lucky.
Quoting PcolaDan:

Does being a half wit count? :)


Yo! Dan. I guess only when one reads half of what they are supposed to read. You have got to have a little doodle for that one. Come on don't disappoint us.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Are all three okay? Any hypothermia?

That is too darn close to the story about the football players. Wait until Bordonaro hears.
And thanks for remembering to tell us; I kept meaning to ask you about that, Matt.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
tornadodude, one thing a lot of people don't realize is how dangerous frozen spray accumulating on sails, masts, and spars can be. It can add up to tons of ice very quickly, and make the boat get top heavy, unmaneuverable, and unstable. Was it well below freezing when he went out?

He is very lucky.


I believe they are all ok, although I'm sure they came very close to hypothermia. So dumb of them to go.

It was all recorded on video btw
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

(also re 714, T-Dude, and St.S.IslandGAGuy)

A few nights ago, maybe even a week, it was just AtmoAggie and Grothar, give and take, lightly sparring and blocking, like fencing with great form and grace, structure & unwritten rules of courtesy. It was a beautiful thing to observe...I didn't understand 5/6 of it...didn't matter. I had no idea Grothar knew about as much scientific data as Atmo because he's stays on the light side here much of the time, to offset the seriousness of those he works with.

Wow, sure was different from the nasty shenanigans we see here sometimes. I just lurked; kind of felt like a voyeur but didn't want to interrupt the "dance."


Thank you Awake for that very nice compliment, but atmoaggie is much more well informed in science than I.
Ossqss that article is pure fiction. As I showed, there never was any scientific consensus in favor of global cooling--it was in favor of global warming very strongly in the 1960s and 1970s. The article trots out that falsehood and regurgitates another falsehood, that Greenland was green in the middle ages. In fact, it was just as ice covered as today, and in the saga of Greenlanders, Erik the Red says he named it Greenland "because it was more likely to attract settlers with such a name"

Do you have any scientific source ossqss? Not a business publication--this is climate science, not business.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
...this is climate science, not business.


Tell that to Al....

Just saying, no hard feelings meant, just merely an observation :p
Quoting tornadodude:


I believe they are all ok, although I'm sure they came very close to hypothermia. So dumb of them to go.

It was all recorded on video btw


At this moment about 3,000 four and five letter works are running through my mind!

All I have to say is that I am glad the God in Heaven had mercy. Next they'll be standing out in the middle of a golf course durning a thunderstorm, holding onto a lightning rod!


00z should be here soon:
Quoting tornadodude:


I believe they are all ok, although I'm sure they came very close to hypothermia. So dumb of them to go.

It was all recorded on video btw


Was this the trip you were contemplating on taking? From now on just stay in your room and play your guitar. It is much safer, unless it is an electric guitar then you must stay away from water. Must we teach you everything?? jööö, du Esel du!
Quoting tornadodude:


I believe they are all ok, although I'm sure they came very close to hypothermia. So dumb of them to go.

It was all recorded on video btw

VIDEO? Who was recording? I want to see! Can't help it...RTVF major aka video hoe (as opposed to garden hoe).
Grothar, I didn't know you were here when I was typing that little ode to you and Atmo. Dang that ESP, it gets its wires crossed and goes schizzy on me!
I also remembered in fencing it's thrust and parry...one of the few things I didn't stink at in gym class!
Quoting Bordonaro:


At this moment about 3,000 four and five letter words are running through my mind!

All I have to say is that I am glad the God in Heaven had mercy. Next they'll be standing out in the middle of a golf course durning a thunderstorm, holding onto a lightning rod!


Yeah, crazy stuff! I feel bad for them.... but that was plain dumb
Quoting Grothar:


Was this the trip you were contemplating on taking? From now on just stay in your room and play your guitar. It is much safer, unless it is an electric guitar then you must stay away from water. Must we teach you everything?? jööö, du Esel du!



Sadly enough, yes it was :P

haha stay in my room and play my guitar all day? sounds good :)

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

VIDEO? Who was recording? I want to see! Can't help it...RTVF major aka video hoe (as opposed to garden hoe).
Grothar, I didn't know you were here when I was typing that little ode to you and Atmo. Dang that ESP, it gets its wires crossed and goes schizzy on me!
I also remembered in fencing it's thrust and parry...one of the few things I didn't stink at in gym class!


someone recorded it from shore, I have not seen it yet, but if they post it to you-tube, then I will share it here
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah, crazy stuff! I feel bad for them.... but that was plain dumb


Look, everybody gets to meet God one day, like it or not, believe it or not. I am proud of the Living God, the Lord Jesus Christ, that I serve. He has delivered me out of some real messes I made for myself. I must admit, I even sent a copy of the e-mail to the dean of Purdue University to stop Josh before he almost killed himself!! And your name was NOT mentioned!!
Quoting Bordonaro:


Look, everybody gets to meet God one day, like it or not, believe it or not. I am proud of the Living God, the Lord Jesus Christ, that I serve. He has delivered me out of some real messes I made for myself. I must admit, I even sent a copy of the e-mail to the dean of Purdue University to stop Josh before he almost killed himself!! And your name was NOT mentioned!!


Well I am glad to hear that you are watching out, it is greatly appreciated! thanks! (:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

VIDEO? Who was recording? I want to see! Can't help it...RTVF major aka video hoe (as opposed to garden hoe).
Grothar, I didn't know you were here when I was typing that little ode to you and Atmo. Dang that ESP, it gets its wires crossed and goes schizzy on me!
I also remembered in fencing it's thrust and parry...one of the few things I didn't stink at in gym class!


Touché, I hope I didn't make you "feint" Perhaps we could using a little "feinting" here.
Quoting tornadodude:


Well I am glad to hear that you are watching out, it is greatly appreciated! thanks! (:


You are more than welcome. The temperatures were 25F, wind chill was +5F, winds were W at 35MPh, gusting to almost 50MPH. the lake was qbout 45F.

Hypothermia in those waters takes < 5 minutes! Cold water can cause anything from leg cramps to a heart attack. Flesh and blood is amazing, can do amazing things, God assembled the human body in a simply amazing fashion.

He also gave everyone a brain, to use wisely!
Quoting Grothar:


Yo! Dan. I guess only when one reads half of what they are supposed to read. You have got to have a little doodle for that one. Come on don't disappoint us.




We're all just one big happy family here.

Quoting Bordonaro:


You are more than welcome. The temperatures were 25F, wind chill was +5F, winds were W at 35MPh, gusting to almost 50MPH. the lake was qbout 45F.

Hypothermia in those waters takes < 5 minutes! Cold water can cause anything from leg cramps to a heart attack. Flesh and blood is amazing, can do amazing things, God assembled the human body in a simply amazing fashion.

He also gave everyone a brain, to use wisely!


Yeah it was crazy bad sailing weather!

If only more of us would use the brain.... :P
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Dec 9, 10:54 pm EST

Light Snow and Breezy

17 °F
(-8 °C)
Humidity: 64 %
Wind Speed: W 22 G 29 MPH
Barometer: 29.73" (1007.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 7 °F (-14 °C)
Wind Chill: -0 °F (-18 °C)
Visibility: 8.00 mi.
I do sincerely hope some of you find it mildly interesting...a post has been made: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/atmoaggie/show.html
Quoting atmoaggie:
I do sincerely hope some of you find it mildly interesting...a post has been made: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/atmoaggie/show.html


I am saving this for the morning when my brain is not as worn out from a busy day, that way I can fully appreciate it
I have a new blog entry, if anyone cares for some reason.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah it was crazy bad sailing weather!

If only more of us would use the brain.... :P


So, how much snow did you all receive today? I know you may be disappointed, but fear not, the winter season is young and tender. There are 2 or 3 more waves of energy that will be moving into Central CA over the next 7-10 days. Maybe one of those systems will take a track that is more conducive to produce snow for Central Indiana.
Quoting PcolaDan:




We're all just one big happy family here.



This is a keeper! Thanks Dan. Does it have a name by chance or should we just let the picture speak for itself.
Quoting Bordonaro:


So, how much snow did you all receive today? I know you may be disappointed, but fear not, the winter season is young and tender. There are 2 or 3 more waves of energy that will be moving into Central CA over the next 7-10 days. Maybe one of those systems will take a track that is more conducive to produce snow for Central Indiana.


Eh, I have about a half inch on the ground, the wind is really whipping it around tho.

I am certainly hoping that one of these systems takes a more southerly track, more snow for me :)
Quoting Grothar:


This is a keeper! Thanks Dan. Does it have a name by chance or should we just let the picture speak for itself.


It's from a small group that I found. Take a look, quite funny. I liked this one because I happen to like Flemish Art.

Smiley Family Portrait
In 1621, Flemish artist Anthony van Dyck (Van Dyke) painted a rare portrait of an entire family of Smileys. Their cat, also of cheerful disposition, was not invited to the sitting.

Original (which I have never seen)

Quoting Grothar:


Touch, I hope I didn't make you "feint" Perhaps we could using a little "feinting" here.

That's pure genius -- perfect for the blog on a bad day.

Add: But oh those puns!

from Wiki:

A feint retreat is performed by briefly engaging the enemy, then retreating. It is intended to draw the enemy pursuit into a prepared ambush, or to cause disarray.
my high temperature was 44, and my low was 14
Quoting tornadodude:


Eh, I have about a half inch on the ground, the wind is really whipping it around tho.

I am certainly hoping that one of these systems takes a more southerly track, more snow for me :)


Looked at winter's blog. He has NAM and GFS forecast model runs up for the next 7-10 days.

At this moment, it looks like the next 3 storms may be rain events. So Sorry :0)
Quoting Bordonaro:


Looked at winter's blog. He has NAM and GFS forecast model runs up for the next 7-10 days.

At this moment, it looks like the next 3 storms may be rain events. So Sorry :0)


figures! :P

Well it doesnt matter too much, I will be in southern Indiana for most of Christmas break
You got REAL COLD tornadodude!

At the DFW AP, the L was 25F, the H was 36F. The wind chill was +12F this morning. Aveeage temp was 31F, 17F below normal. For N Central TX, man it was COLD

Quoting Bordonaro:
You got REAL COLD tornadodude!

At the DFW AP, the L was 25F, the H was 36F. The wind chill was +12F this morning. Aveeage temp was 31F, 17F below normal. For N Central TX, man it was COLD



It is supposed to get down to 10, windchills down to -10, high of 16 tomorrow
Quoting Grothar:


Thank you Awake for that very nice compliment, but atmoaggie is much more well informed in science than I.

Um, thank you both. But don't sell yourself short, Gro. You're no dummy.
Quoting tornadodude:


figures! :P

Well it doesnt matter too much, I will be in southern Indiana for most of Christmas break


The GFS and NAM are showing a possible White Christmas for about 75% of the CONUS. However, the likelyhood of the computer models of being correct are near what, 20-30%??
Quoting Bordonaro:


The GFS and NAM are showing a possible White Christmas for about 75% of the CONUS. However, the likelyhood of the computer models of being correct are near what, 20-30%??


Yeah, I imagine that at Purdue I have a decent chance
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah, I imagine that at Purdue I have a decent chance


Yes, you do!!

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

That's pure genius -- perfect for the blog on a bad day.

Add: But oh those puns!

from Wiki:

A feint retreat is performed by briefly engaging the enemy, then retreating. It is intended to draw the enemy pursuit into a prepared ambush, or to cause disarray.


Giving away my secrets now, eh? yYu are too clever Awake. My kind of gal. Or is last last statement not politically correct anymore?
Quoting Bordonaro:


Yes, you do!!



haha love it!
Oh quit worrying about the cold tornadodude, and chill out!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh quit worrying about the cold tornadodude, and chill out!


LOL hey, after my fraternity's budget meeting, this is a stress reliever :P
Quoting tornadodude:


haha love it!


I used to tease my late wife Sue. I used to tell her that it was so cold in here that the snowman, penguin and polar bear were all building a fire in the corner to stay warm.

I looked on Google for a snowman building a fire with a penguin, couldn't find any good ones!!
Quoting Bordonaro:


I used to tease my late wife Sue. I used to tell her that it was so cold in here that the snowman, penguin and polar bear were all building a fire in the corner to stay warm.

I looked on Google for a snowman building a fire with a penguin, couldn't find any good ones!!


aww, I will definitely have to look for one!
Quoting Grothar:


Giving away my secrets now, eh? yYu are too clever Awake. My kind of gal. Or is last last statement not politically correct anymore?

It's just fine; and thank you!
I would call you a swell guy if I was older (pfft, LOL).
Matt's lady would be a Dudette?
It's getting so confusing...not waiter or waitress but server.
And "actor" is preferred for both male and female, I think?
What's the head of a committee? A chairman or chairperson? I give up.
I was treasurer for my Kappa Sigma chapter my jr year. My approach to solving fiscal problems was innovative. When brothers didn't pay up their dues, if they got way behind, I would write letters to their mothers sent in care of the ministers of their hometown churches.

It definitely got results. Reactions too.
Quoting tornadodude:


aww, I will definitely have to look for one!


Close??

Quoting PcolaDan:


It's from a small group that I found. Take a look, quite funny. I liked this one because I happen to like Flemish Art.

Smiley Family Portrait
In 1621, Flemish artist Anthony van Dyck (Van Dyke) painted a rare portrait of an entire family of Smileys. Their cat, also of cheerful disposition, was not invited to the sitting.

Original (which I have never seen)



Thought is looked familiar. Do you know the name of the original? Desecrating classical art now, what is next> LOL
Quoting Bordonaro:


Close??



haha yeah



the penguin and snowman are inside :P
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

It's just fine; and thank you!
I would call you a swell guy if I was older (pfft, LOL).
Matt's lady would be a Dudette?
It's getting so confusing...not waiter or waitress but server.
And "actor" is preferred for both male and female, I think?
What's the head of a committee? A chairman or chairperson? I give up.


Know what you mean. Remember the days in the theater when an actor got a part they called it a "gig". Now they refer to it as "practicing their craft". I think the Actor's Studio in NY had a lot to do with that.
Quoting Bordonaro:


I used to tease my late wife Sue. I used to tell her that it was so cold in here that the snowman, penguin and polar bear were all building a fire in the corner to stay warm.

I looked on Google for a snowman building a fire with a penguin, couldn't find any good ones!!


I am so disappointed that this mural is still not in place -- I wanted to post you a pic! Promise I will someday; I'm afraid it will be delayed because we are supposed to get a new east-west light rail now -- sorely needed so it will be worth the wait!

I am sorry about your dear late wife; she does sound like a dear!

Artwork

The Silver Spring (Maryland subway) station is also home to Penguin Rush Hour, a 100x8 ft. mural painted by Sally Callmer, depicting penguins as Metro customers during rush hour.[2] Although originally intended to be a temporary exhibit, the mural placed at the station in the early 1990s has become a symbol of the downtown area of Silver Spring. In 2004, the Silver Spring Regional Center, a part of Montgomery County Government, commissioned the original artist to restore the mural, which was damaged by the elements and missing sections, for approximately $30,000. In 2004-2005, the mural was removed for the restoration, with the promise that it would be returned by the end of 2005.[3] As of February 2008, the mural has not returned to its rightful place and most likely will not be returned until the completion of the current WMATA project "Paul S. Sarbanes Transit Center" is completed sometime in 2010.[
Quoting tornadodude:


haha yeah



the penguin and snowman are inside :P


Cool picture. I found one on You Tube

img src="" alt="" />
Well, off to work soon! Have a good evening all. Stay well and out of the ice! See if I can stir up a little trouble today. I must say, I sharpen my wits on the blog a little. Or as my good friend Dan, said a half-wit. LOL
Quoting Grothar:
Well, off to work soon! Have a good evening all. Stay well and out of the ice! See if I can stir up a little trouble today. I must say, I sharpen my wits on the blog a little. Or as my good friend Dan, said a half-wit. LOL


LOL

have a good one Grothar, and if you ever get the Urge.... :PP
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


I am so disappointed that this mural is still not in place -- I wanted to post you a pic! Promise I will someday; I'm afraid it will be delayed because we are supposed to get a new east-west light rail now -- sorely needed so it will be worth the wait!

I am sorry about your dear late wife; she does sound like a dear!

Artwork

The Silver Spring (Maryland subway) station is also home to Penguin Rush Hour, a 100x8 ft. mural painted by Sally Callmer, depicting penguins as Metro customers during rush hour.[2] Although originally intended to be a temporary exhibit, the mural placed at the station in the early 1990s has become a symbol of the downtown area of Silver Spring. In 2004, the Silver Spring Regional Center, a part of Montgomery County Government, commissioned the original artist to restore the mural, which was damaged by the elements and missing sections, for approximately $30,000. In 2004-2005, the mural was removed for the restoration, with the promise that it would be returned by the end of 2005.[3] As of February 2008, the mural has not returned to its rightful place and most likely will not be returned until the completion of the current WMATA project "Paul S. Sarbanes Transit Center" is completed sometime in 2010.[


Thanks, I appreciate that, I'd love to see that pic :0)!!
Quoting Bordonaro:


Cool picture. I found one on You Tube

img src="" alt="" />


LOL!
Quoting Grothar:
Well, off to work soon! Have a good evening all. Stay well and out of the ice! See if I can stir up a little trouble today. I must say, I sharpen my wits on the blog a little. Or as my good friend Dan, said a half-wit. LOL


Take care, and I will be looking forward to your Trip Report!
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL!


Poor gansta penguin! Mean Polla Bear busted a cap in his ...
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


I am so disappointed that this mural is still not in place -- I wanted to post you a pic! Promise I will someday; I'm afraid it will be delayed because we are supposed to get a new east-west light rail now -- sorely needed so it will be worth the wait!

I am sorry about your dear late wife; she does sound like a dear!

Artwork

The Silver Spring (Maryland subway) station is also home to Penguin Rush Hour, a 100x8 ft. mural painted by Sally Callmer, depicting penguins as Metro customers during rush hour.[2] Although originally intended to be a temporary exhibit, the mural placed at the station in the early 1990s has become a symbol of the downtown area of Silver Spring. In 2004, the Silver Spring Regional Center, a part of Montgomery County Government, commissioned the original artist to restore the mural, which was damaged by the elements and missing sections, for approximately $30,000. In 2004-2005, the mural was removed for the restoration, with the promise that it would be returned by the end of 2005.[3] As of February 2008, the mural has not returned to its rightful place and most likely will not be returned until the completion of the current WMATA project "Paul S. Sarbanes Transit Center" is completed sometime in 2010.[


That the same Sarbanes on the Watergate committee? Um, Watergate suject twice in one night, what a coincidence. Do you see my earlier blog Awake, we MUST have ESP.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Poor gansta penguin! Mean Polla Bear busted a cap in his ...


LOL does that make the penguin a half wit? and will they bury him 50% below sea level?
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL

have a good one Grothar, and if you ever get the Urge.... :PP


Don't laugh, but they have been serving it where I have been going.
Quoting Grothar:


That the same Sarbanes on the Watergate committee? Um, Watergate suject twice in one night, what a coincidence. Do you see my earlier blog Awake, we MUST have ESP.


<>img src="" alt="" />
Quoting Grothar:


Don't laugh, but they have been serving it where I have been going.


:(
Quoting Bordonaro:




Smaller than one thinks! A good laugh before departing into the cold, cruel world, or should I stay on topic and say the warming, cruel world. Must maintain the vernacular!
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL does that make the penguin a half wit? and will they bury him 50% below sea level?


Yes, indeed!! Whatever is left of him! That sawd-off shotgun blast to the head didn't leave nothing but 'penguin strips"!!
Quoting Grothar:


That the same Sarbanes on the Watergate committee? Um, Watergate suject twice in one night, what a coincidence. Do you see my earlier blog Awake, we MUST have ESP.


Yes, it is, and, well, they say "there are no coincidences." But I didn't write the mural/metro entry/description.

Paul Sarbanes was a very good Senator. A bit boring...but you know, as I've often said about our climate, boring can be good!
Was also a family friend of my former husband...the Greek-Baltimore tribe. Fun was had by all at the Greek events. I miss the FOOD! But you must go, be well.

I'm off to watch my favorite Scot, new American citizen, Craig Ferguson, all. This was a very nice evening, and I loved the pics, art-smiley...shooting the poor penguin...okay, I admit I laughed; my bad.

Night!

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Yes, it is, and, well, they say "there are no coincidences." But I didn't write the mural/metro entry/description.

Paul Sarbanes was a very good Senator. A bit boring...but you know, as I've often said about our climate, boring can be good!
Was also a family friend of my former husband...the Greek-Baltimore tribe. Fun was had by all at the Greek events. I miss the FOOD! But you must go, be well.

I'm off to watch my favorite Scot, new American citizen, Craig Ferguson, all. This was a very nice evening, and I loved the pics, art-smiley...shooting the poor penguin...okay, I admit I laughed; my bad.

Night!



Beware of Greeks bearing gifts, Awake! bye now for real.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Yes, it is, and, well, they say "there are no coincidences." But I didn't write the mural/metro entry/description.

Paul Sarbanes was a very good Senator. A bit boring...but you know, as I've often said about our climate, boring can be good!
Was also a family friend of my former husband...the Greek-Baltimore tribe. Fun was had by all at the Greek events. I miss the FOOD! But you must go, be well.

I'm off to watch my favorite Scot, new American citizen, Craig Ferguson, all. This was a very nice evening, and I loved the pics, art-smiley...shooting the poor penguin...okay, I admit I laughed; my bad.

Night!



Good Night! Go watch Craig Ferguson and his "puppets"!!
goodnight you two!
Quoting tornadodude:
goodnight you two!


img src="" alt="" />
Quoting Bordonaro:


img src="" alt="" />


LOL!! thanks
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL!! thanks


Craig has a weird, twisted sense of humor, and I like it. I will be back later today!

Be blessed young man! I am proud of you!
818. ROFL -- watched during commercial!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
818. ROFL -- watched during commercial!


My young adult children bought me a shirt for my 46TH birthday, it read:

"Annoying the WORLD, One Person at a Time".

I proudly wore the shirt!!
Quoting Bordonaro:


Craig has a weird, twisted sense of humor, and I like it. I will be back later today!

Be blessed young man! I am proud of you!


thanks! have a great night!
825. xcool



Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
For Northern Territory (125-142E)
2:20 pm CST December 10 2009
==========================================

A developing Tropical Low, (1005hPa), is located in the Arafura Sea, near 10.0S 134.0E, about 190 kilometres north northeast of Goulburn Island. The low is expected to move west or west southwest during the next three days into the Timor Sea and may develop into a tropical cyclone during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
==================================
Friday: Low
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: High


hmm the prediction no tropical cyclone before Christmas or January for the Australian region may not happen
And if you believe that you might want to get in touch with a guy named Bernie Madoff for investment advice. Many of those numbers a manipulated to make them look higher as indicated in the climategate papers. They continue to keep their method for calculating their numbers secret which 99.99% of the time means they are lying. Real scientists who have confidence in their data like to release their calculations to prove they are correct.

If they are still only using the high and low temperatures the numbers are what we mathematicians refer to as garbage anyway. In the real sciences averages went out with slide rules. Using only the high and low numbers in a set of irregularly distributed series of numbers results in a number that may not be representative of the whole series.

830. ayi
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST Thursday 10 December 2009

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy, not including Darwin.

At 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 170 kilometres north northeast of Goulburn Island and 420 kilometres northeast of Darwin and moving west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.2 degrees South 134.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Thursday 10 December.
Good Morning

36.0 °F
Clear
Windchill: 31 °F
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 21 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.40 in (Rising)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Ah. The media. I am sure you have complete faith in the mainstream media (which is all there was in the 1970s). There were some alarmist pieces published in the media by reporters in the 1970s, during and after a series of unusually cold winters in the 1970s.

However, between 1965 and 1979 there were 71 scientific papers on the subject of climate change. 44 papers predicted global warming. 7 predicted global cooling. 20 were inconclusive/neutral.

So 44 papers from 1965 to 1979 predicting global warming. 7 predicting global cooling.

More than 6 to 1 in favor of global warming! Wow!

Source: Link


This also shows that even then, with scientists looking at the same data, there was no consensus.

77 papers, 27 of them falling in the cooling/inconclusive/neutral camp.

Remember, inconclusive/neutral simply meant there wasn't enough evidence either way.
Quoting hcubed:


This also shows that even then, with scientists looking at the same data, there was no consensus.

77 papers, 27 of them falling in the cooling/inconclusive/neutral camp.

Remember, inconclusive/neutral simply meant there wasn't enough evidence either way.
It was 40 years ago.

40 years - about 10 BEFORE the personal computer even. My father had a slide ruler in college then.

Does anyone here even use analog methods to evaluate data anymore.
This is pretty much how I see the global warming "debate":

If Climate "Researchers" Became Doctors...

No internet, very little communication between disciplines.

I wonder how many even knew of solar flux readings or what colleagues were stating in Britain much less the soviet union.

And rich was responding to someone saying scientist WERE calling for cooling anyway.

That was false - thats the point here.
Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:
This is pretty much how I see the global warming "debate":

If Climate "Researchers" Became Doctors...



If you wanted to make it a proper analogy, add:

He didnt actually see the foot on the scale someone that knew and didn't like the doctor said it might be there. He looked fat to others, other measurements said he was fat. His tracks on the ground indicated his weight. His shopping bill indicated his consumption. He didn't work out or exercise. He didn't feel well and was at the doctors and no other diagnoses was available.

A diet and more exercise would be a reasonable precaution then I think -- Instead of listening to him that we should all eat more.

Would you let your children take that advise.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


If you wanted to make it a proper analogy, add:

He didnt actually see the foot on the scale someone that knew and didn't like the doctor said it might be there. He looked fat to others, other measurements said he was fat. His tracks on the ground indicated his weight. His shopping bill indicated his consumption. He didn't work out or exercise. He didn't feel well and was at the doctors and no other diagnoses was available.

A diet and more exercise would be a reasonable precaution then I think -- Instead of listening to him the we should all eat more. Would you let your children take that advise.


Actually, to be even more correct, I could add what the doctor prescribed: That the patient should pay costly "fat credits" in the form of globally enforced cash transfers to people who are also overeating, and refused to participate in the crusade to save the planet from global fatting. This would be enforced by a global government, with the power to afix measurement valves at both ends of the alimentary canal, to make sure the "fat debtor" was forking over sufficient cash.
Longwood, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 21 sec ago
75.0 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph

Pressure: 29.93 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 74 °F
Visibility: 8.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1500 ft
Scattered Clouds 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 23 ft

It is like summer out here this morning and there are pretty hefty thunderstorms about 20 miles west of us.
Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:


Actually, to be even more correct, I could add what the doctor prescribed: That the patient should pay costly "fat credits" in the form of globally enforced cash transfers to people who are also overeating, and refused to participate in the crusade to save the planet from global fatting. This would be enforced by a global government, with the power to afix measurement valves at both ends of the alimentary canal, to make sure the "fat debtor" was forking over sufficient cash.


Then also add his nickname was "fatso" and he would become a bedridden in a few years. If something worse didn't happen.

And we had all taken his advise and were already fat too.
Down here, the Miami NWS gives us this to look forward to
BUT UNTIL THE FIRST FRONT COMES THROUGH TONIGHT, WE HAVE TO DEAL
WITH ANOTHER NEAR RECORD HIGH DAY TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN AREAS
BEING MAINLY AFFECTED. THE RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE 86 FOR PALM
BEACH, FORT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI. THE FCST CALLS FOR 86 AT FORT
LAUDERDALE WHICH IS A TIE AND 87 FOR MIAMI WHICH WOULD BREAK IT.
EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND
THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Main Entry: 1stu·pid
Pronunciation: \ˈstü-pəd, ˈstyü-\
Function: adjective
Etymology: Middle French stupide, from Latin stupidus, from stupēre to be numb, be astonished — more at type
Date: 1541

1 a : slow of mind : obtuse b : given to unintelligent decisions or acts : acting in an unintelligent or careless manner c : lacking intelligence or reason : brutish
2 : dulled in feeling or sensation : torpid
3 : marked by or resulting from unreasoned thinking or acting : senseless
4 a : lacking interest or point

"Stupid is as stupid does" F.G.
pat had a good snow map.
Even assuming the now specious claims regarding the data, how the True Believers in AGW jump from "the earth may be warming and man's CO2 output may exacerbate the trend" to "Therefore, the United States must commit itself to a command and control regime of wealth redistribution" says more about their politics than their vaunted love of "science." Why anyone should believe one group of people have a monopoly on altruism, least of all when $145 trillion is on the line, and the major players have by thier own actions discredited themselves, I have yet to hear a credible argument.
Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:
Even assuming the now specious claims regarding the data, how the True Believers in AGW jump from "the earth may be warming and man's CO2 output may exacerbate the trend" to "Therefore, the United States must commit itself to a command and control regime of wealth redistribution" says more about their politics than their vaunted love of "science." Why anyone should believe one group of people have a monopoly on altruism, least of all when $145 trillion is on the line, and the major players have by thier own actions discredited themselves, I have yet to hear a credible argument.


Itemized calculations??

How much was spent in ME political manoeuvrings, last energy "crisis."

We are going to have to shift our ENTIRE energy infrastructure over the next 50 years anyway. How much will that plus the added dislocations cost. Lives and living conditions in natural disasters.

How much have we spent on our current and unsustainable infrastructure.
Mornin' all!
Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:


BTW, judging by your photo, I'm skinnier than you. I am happy to take cash, check or credit card and will be delighted to make payment arrangements with you offline. Do it for the planet. Think of the children.


Yes and I admit I am overweight and not ideal. I try and spend money and time in the effort.

How does this now relate back to GW.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
calusakat, 44 papers predicted global warming, 7 predicted global cooling. The ratio is over 6 to 1. As I said.

Typical slight of hand there. More Church of the IPCC/AGW methodology at work I see.

By your own claim, there were 71 papers on the subject...44 agreed with global warming and 27 did not. Not even 2 to 1.

What is so difficult about being faithful to the math at least?


Quoting JFLORIDA:


Yes and I admit I am overweight and not ideal.

How does this now relate back to GW.



Both arguments are based on guilt, not logic, let alone data. The "deniers" here are the ones who pretend the information uncovered by the release of emails and (especially!) source code doesn't demonstrate bad faith on the part of the most respected of the so-called scientists involved in devising the computer models that supposedly prove AGW's reality and justify the draconian political steps contemplated in Copenhagen.

The painting of the scientists as somehow selfless crusaders for humanity vs. greedy corporate interests is classic left wing framing of the issue. We are supposed to believe the scientists, even though their internal discussions demonstrate political motives and a shocking willingness to malign those who disagree with them and apply a meat-axe to any data that doesn't confirm the theory. Well, when you're asking me at gunpoint to hand over my wallet over the matter (and Copenhagen is all about enforced wealth redistribution), I'm sorry, but no man's motives are above question.
Quoting calusakat:

Typical slight of hand there. More Church of the IPCC/AGW methodology at work I see.

By your own claim, there were 71 papers on the subject...44 agreed with global warming and 27 did not. Not even 2 to 1.

What is so difficult about being faithful to the math at least?





WAIT, YOU GUYS BROUGHT UP THE ARGUMENT. FROM THE 70's.

And now you and calling others dishonest for providing specific sources.

BTW Neutral doesn't mean "cooling".
The whole Man Made Global Warming is centered around a model based on assumptions about the effect of CO2 on the "Global" climate. What if that assumtion is wrong? Do you calculate in CO2 levels in your short term forcast?

Just wondering
Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:


Both arguments are based on guilt, not logic, let alone data. The "deniers" here are the ones who pretend the information uncovered by the release of emails and (especially!) source code doesn't demonstrate bad faith on the part of the most respected of the so-called scientists involved in devising the computer models that supposedly prove AGW's reality and justify the draconian political steps contemplated in Copenhagen.

The painting of the scientists as somehow selfless crusaders for humanity vs. greedy corporate interests is classic left wing framing of the issue. We are supposed to believe the scientists, even though their internal discussions demonstrate political motives and a shocking willingness to malign those who disagree with them and apply a meat-axe to any data that doesn't confirm the theory. Well, when you're asking me at gunpoint to hand over my wallet over the matter (and Copenhagen is all about enforced wealth redistribution), I'm sorry, but no man's motives are above question.


No YOU say that as an opinion.

I am convinced by what I have seen.

The painting of anti science crusaders as victim in the postmodern sense is the most disturbing part of this - and the misapplication of Identity theory as well as relational aesthetics -- an area that I feel I am actually an expert in and will post an entire blog devoted to.
Technically it's not only a one way street of wealth distribution.

Helping poor countries develop low carbon economies -> their emissions don't cause health problems for developed nations -> their standard of living goes up including a lower birth rate because of better health care -> less overpopulation -> creating a bigger developed market for advanced products and skills made in the US and other developed nations -> everybody gets something out of it.

Admittedly developed nations may overtake the privileged few at the moment, but hey, everyone agrees trying to abolish slavery is good right? Well apart from the people in the slavery business... Maybe an apt analogy for developed nations.
Longwood, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
76.8 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph

Pressure: 29.94 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 78 °F
Visibility: 8.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1500 ft
Scattered Clouds 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 23 ft

Quoting JFLORIDA:


Yes and I admit I am overweight and not ideal. I try and spend money and time in the effort.

How does this now relate back to GW.



JMO – but I don’t believe there is a correlation between body mass and hot air, as thin folks appear more than able to float their own balloons…
Quoting JFLORIDA:



WAIT, YOU GUYS BROUGHT UP THE ARGUMENT. FROM THE 70's.

And now you and calling others dishonest for providing specific sources.

BTW Neutral doesn't mean "cooling".


Or "warming"...
Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:


BTW, judging by your photo, I'm skinnier than you. I am happy to take cash, check or credit card and will be delighted to make payment arrangements with you offline. Do it for the planet. Think of the children.


Do yourself a favor and put that guy on ignore. You are wasting your time.
Opinion is a flitting thing,
But Truth, outlasts the Sun-
If then we cannot own them both-
Possess the oldest one

Emily Dickinson

Back to real work.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Do yourself a favor and put that guy on ignore. You are wasting your time.


The one that will not source his opinion as such returns. That request is why he ignored me.

And yes he is correct, ignore would be best considering it is just opinion.

Which actually is fine it just should be sourced as such.
I must say it is pretty obvious that the people who most vociferously deny global warming on this blog tend not to be able to concede any points with a simple:

You are right about this, thank you for correcting me.

Part of being intelligent and unbiased is the ability to admit when you are wrong, on both sides. There is no church going on, nobody on this blog trying to hoodwink others, the only people who might be doing that are the professionals, so acting civil towards each other should be common sense.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


No YOU say that as an opinion.

I am convinced by what I have seen.

The painting of anti science crusaders as victim in the postmodern sense is the most disturbing part of this - and the misapplication of Identity theory as well as relational aesthetics -- an area that I feel I am actually an expert in and will post an entire blog devoted to.


I am not anti-science. I happen to know a thing or two about political philosophy and see the classic battle lines over economics lining up. Marx thought he and Engles invented "scientific" socialism that would eradicate all poverty and bring about universal peace and prosperity, but it was based on entirely false assumptions about human nature. There was nothing scientific about it, except the insistence of its rhetoric that it was somehow "scientific." In point of fact, it was based on layers of deceit and brought about instead a kind of systematic brutality in the last century that killed millions of people in the name of "progress."

Your introduction of "postmodernism" (another branch of the same Hegelian philosophical tree from which Marx et al. sprang) merely proves my point about the underlying political nature of the so-called scientific debate.

I'm not saying anybody has a monopoly on goodness. I'm skeptical of all do-gooder schemes to improve humanity, even laissez faire capitalist ones, and view everyone as thumpingly dishonest. This is why we *need* science, because we can check each other's methods at least. It's also why we *need* freedom, to call bull***t on each other.
Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:


I am not anti-science. I happen to know a thing or two about political philosophy and see the classic battle lines over economics lining up. Marx thought he and Engles invented "scientific" socialism that would eradicate all poverty and bring about universal peace and prosperity, but it was based on entirely false assumptions about human nature. There was nothing scientific about it, except the insistence of its rhetoric that it was somehow "scientific." In point of fact, it was based on layers of deceit and brought about instead a kind of systematic brutality in the last century that killed millions of people in the name of "progress."

Your introduction of "postmodernism" (another branch of the same Hegelian philosophical tree from which Marx et al. sprang) merely proves my point about the underlying political nature of the so-called scientific debate.

I'm not saying anybody has a monopoly on goodness. I'm skeptical of all do-gooder schemes to improve humanity, even laissez faire capitalist ones, and view everyone as thumpingly dishonest. This is why we *need* science, because we can check each other's methods at least. It's also why we *need* freedom, to call bull***t on each other.


Unfortunately, as of late, it appears that science has become dishonest.
Oh man. you guys still are going at it hammer and tongs.... geez give it a rest
Well, I see the looney birds came out overnight.

Remind me why I bother reading the blog when the AGW debate is going on? Someone?

Just to wade into this whole debate today...

AGW is not based on JUST CO2. It is the most talked about, but not the only factor. Methane, stratospheric water vapor, and other chemicals are just as responsible for any GW in models, and are just as discussed. CO2 takes such prominence because it is so prevalent in the atmosphere, and it also is (most importantly), largely controllable. We can do something about CO2 production. It is harder to make a meaningful impact on methane levels, especially if the Siberian permafrost thaws.

Also, with the whole debate about the globe being warmer in the past - of course it was... before we had billions of people leaving within 100 miles of the coast. Also, there is no evidence showing the current rate of the temp rise ever in the past. Yes, there may be natural processes in effect, but at the same time, we have consumed half the global supply of oil (which takes millions of years to produce naturally) in less than 200 years. Oil is a HydroCARBON. Meaning it holds lots of carbon. Please don't try to tell me that us burning half the world's supply of oil (most of which was created from the plants from 65M years ago) will have no impact on CO2 levels. Yes, we are a mere speck on the geologic time scale. But we are also an incredibly wasteful species, and have been wasting this planet's natural resources like they are going out of style.

Beyond the AGW debate - wouldn't it be great if we could actually, as a species, live within our means in a sustainable manner? You know, use the gigantic nuclear furnace in the sky for our power generation needs? Or tap into the incredibly hot rock a few miles beneath our feet? Or harness tidal motions to generate energy for practically free?

Take cars for instance - the MOST efficient internal combustion engine wastes roughly 70% of its potential energy, dissipating that energy as heat. As an illustrative example, the 200hp engine in your car generates approximately 149kW of power. That is with 70% wasted energy. If that exact same engine was 100% efficient, you would suddenly get 665hp out of the same engine (in theory - some energy would still be lost via friction)

The same concept of power efficiency is true for all power generation, from coal to nuclear power.
Ahh its always good to pop into the blog to see that insanity and craziness is still alive and well :)
I really hope Jeff gets the blog topic back on track soon.
Tropical low looms off the Top End coast


In what would be a relatively early start to the 2009/2010 tropical cyclone season, a low pressure system is slowly becoming more organised off the Top End coast and is being closely monitored for signs of further development.

The low is currently situated around 300km north of the Arnhem Land coast and is moving slowly west.

The main effect of the low on land, so far, has been an increase in cloud cover and rainfall. In the 24 hours to 9am Thursday, Upper Adelaide River picked up 31mm. Between 9am and 2pm, Pirlangimpi had received 13mm.

Another result of the increased cloud cover and humidity was a very warm night on Wednesday night. Darwin recorded an overnight minimum of 29.7 degrees, its equal highest on record.

As the low continues tracking west, the cloud, rain and high humidity will persist into the weekend. The low is expected to reach the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf by Sunday, where it should start intensifying more rapidly.

Computer model guidance is varied but, at this stage, there is around a 40-50% chance of the low developing into a cyclone off the WA coast during next week.

- Weatherzone



Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 10/0815 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11.0S 169.0E AT
100600 UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

CONVECTION IS PERSISTENT OVER THE SYSTEM BUT REMAINS DISORGANISED.
01F LIES UNDER A 250HPA RIDGE AXIS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WITH
MODERATE SHEAR OVER 01F. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES TO THE SOUTH
AND DIRECTS A DRY SOUTHEASTERLY SURGE. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED
UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT WEST SOUTHWEST.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD02F [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 180 AT
100600 UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. 02F IS EMBEDDED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND
JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. TD02F LIES IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT DEEPEN THE SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.



Post Financial collapse and bailout im not sure "Marxism" is even a holistically valid term anymore. Even before, as perceived "half" a political dichotomy it really never applied to modern infrastructure, federal policy and international relations.

Thats it for today im out.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ahh its always good to pop into the blog to see that insanity and craziness is still alive and well :)

Yep, it is definitely refreshing to see that the looney birds are not extinct.
Hey Aus, hows the summer going for you down under..I am freezing up here.. more then happy to trade you :)

Quoting Orcasystems:
I really hope Jeff gets the blog topic back on track soon.


Let's hope his post today focuses more on the hurricane season for 2010.
But yea - here is where you need to think, and why its probably best not to ignore someone that attempts to source everything:

Unfortunately, as of late, it appears that science has become dishonest.


It unfortunately cant be both. It is or is not by definition.

Science (from the Latin scientia, meaning "knowledge") is, in its broadest sense, any systematic knowledge-base or prescriptive practice that is capable of resulting in a prediction or predictable type of outcome. In this sense, science may refer to a highly skilled technique or practice.

Ill let you "do the math."
Quoting CaneWarning:


Let's hope his post today focuses more on the hurricane season for 2010.


I sure hope so... as a habit I don't put people on ignore if they are at least ontopic... we have had some post that are so far out there lately its insane. I added two people I normally respect to that list this morning...
Quoting JFLORIDA:


The one that will not source his opinion as such returns. That request is why he ignored me.

And yes he is correct, ignore would be best considering it is just opinion.

Which actually is fine it just should be sourced as such.


The only person you've quoted so far in this discussion is yourself ("I am convinced by what I have seen"), and Emily Dickenson.

The issue of sourcing is a funny one. If we disagree fundamentally about who the reliable sources are, we're not going to get very far in a debate.
Moreover, should I "ignore" every pro-AGW poster who posted a political cartoon to make their point? I daresay I chuckle at some of them, even when I "disagree" with them, particularly if they demonstrate some wit.

People who so easily "ignore" other people because they don't write peer-review treatises for every post should consider that their motive is not "science" but rather to avoid debate and seek only the confirming fellowship of like-minded believers.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Unfortunately, as of late, it appears that science has become dishonest.


I don't think that is the case. There are many cases of science being politicized (and dishonest) throughout history. The number of Malthusian-type predicted catastrophes are plentiful. Remember the Population Bomb?

That said, I do wish Dr. Masters focused on the weather more. I can certainly appreciate his faith but not everybody here shares that faith. I could see two blogs coming from him. He could keep a climate change blog as well as one devoted to real-time weather. I've no doubt the climate change blog would still have plenty of bickering because that really is a controversial topic, but for many of us, we could just frequent the weather blog.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I sure hope so... as a habit I don't put people on ignore if they are at least ontopic... we have had some post that are so far out there lately its insane. I added two people I normally respect to that list this morning...


I know, I took one off of ignore to see if he was being civil a second ago and I see that he is posting about me again. So back on ignore he went!
Quoting CaneWarning:


I know, I took one off of ignore to see if he was being civil a second ago and I see that he is posting about me again. So back on ignore he went!


Since I did not see it... we will have to assume I have also :)
Quoting mikatnight:



A lot of useless bickering and whining from the right since the beginning of the year, funny picture. Seems they are waiting in the bushes to throw dust. Nah Nah, you made a mistake, lol. If Obama doesn't make it another 4, at least the wheels of change are in motion. The public won't stand for a return to extreme rightisim so they better start working on a formidable candidate, Charlie Christ isn't going to work, he's horrible.
Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:


The only person you've quoted so far in this discussion is yourself ("I am convinced by what I have seen"), and Emily Dickenson.

The issue of sourcing is a funny one. If we disagree fundamentally about who the reliable sources are, we're not going to get very far in a debate.
Moreover, should I "ignore" every pro-AGW poster who posted a political cartoon to make their point? I daresay I chuckle at some of them, even when I "disagree" with them, particularly if they demonstrate some wit.

People who so easily "ignore" other people because they don't write peer-review treatises for every post should consider that their motive is not "science" but rather to avoid debate and seek only the confirming fellowship of like-minded believers.


I ignored him the other day, not because of what he was saying, but how he was saying it. He was coming across in a very rude manner, and many agreed with me on that.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Hey Aus, hows the summer going for you down under..I am freezing up here.. more then happy to trade you :)


Mate, its currently 78.3F 33% humidity, wind NW 20km/h(12.4Mph) Gusts 30km/h(18.6Mph)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Since I did not see it... we will have to assume I have also :)


:)

Stay warm up there. We have a cold front swinging down my way this morning. I welcome it!
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



A lot of useless bickering and whining from the right since the beginning of the year, funny picture. Seems they are waiting in the bushes to throw dust. Nah Nah, you made a mistake, lol. If Obama doesn't make it another 4, at least the wheels of change are in motion. The public won't stand for a return to extreme rightisim so they better start working on a formidable candidate, Charlie Christ isn't going to work, he's horrible.


But don't you see the left does that too? I see the left and the right equally guilty of the same things, as you've just demonstrated. Do you think maybe rather than throw dust on the ones throwing dust, there might be a better way that brings you above the fray?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Mate, its currently 78.3F 33% humidity, wind NW 20km/h(12.4Mph) Gusts 30km/h(18.6Mph)


Perfect for golfing.. just enough wind to make it interesting... and nice and warm.. not to hot :)

My Koi ponds are frozen over, and they look like skating rinks (save the Koisicle Jokes, surfmom beat you to it)
Its amazing how perfectly sensible, middle-of-the-road AGW posts get lost, while the extreme, looney-bird variety get quoted.
Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:


The only person you've quoted so far in this discussion is yourself ("I am convinced by what I have seen"), and Emily Dickenson.

The issue of sourcing is a funny one. If we disagree fundamentally about who the reliable sources are, we're not going to get very far in a debate.
Moreover, should I "ignore" every pro-AGW poster who posted a political cartoon to make their point? I daresay I chuckle at some of them, even when I "disagree" with them, particularly if they demonstrate some wit.

People who so easily "ignore" other people because they don't write peer-review treatises for every post should consider that their motive is not "science" but rather to avoid debate and seek only the confirming fellowship of like-minded believers.


LOL im not gone yet. You just got here too.

I have a record here. Today's stuff for the most part wasn't even on the specifics of Climate - it was on attributes of the debate. I was there for that so it became a narrative.
The person you are quoting made a specific statement on AGW. :
Quoting jeffs713:
Its amazing how perfectly sensible, middle-of-the-road AGW posts get lost, while the extreme, looney-bird variety get quoted.


I think thats the whole idea of them posting them. The more extremest views are the ones that get the most response from the other extreme.

A lot like baiting a troll.. and it seems to be working very well, they have taken over the blog.

I miss JFV :(
Quoting jeffs713:
Its amazing how perfectly sensible, middle-of-the-road AGW posts get lost, while the extreme, looney-bird variety get quoted.


Today the character of the debate was continuously referenced and opinions posted , those doing so then complained that we were not discussing climate specifics and I was not sourcing them enough.

I see the Grey letter was brought up earlier Ill re post my responses here:
I see the blog took a nose dive since yesterday.

Looks like a lurking day.

I cant believe it, still foggy in St. Petersburg. It's been foggy for a day in a half, I feel like where up north when the sun disappears for days.
Puncturing the Climate Balloon

By Dr. Bill Gray

December 8, 2009

Had I not devoted my entire career of over half-a-century to the study and forecasting of meteorological and climate events I would have likely been concerned over the possibility of humans causing serious global climate degradation.


There has been an unrelenting quarter century of one-sided indoctrination of the western world by the media and by various scientists and governments concerning a coming carbon dioxide (CO_2 ) induced global warming disaster. These warming scenarios have been orchestrated by a combination of environmentalists, vested interest scientists wanting larger federal grants and publicity, the media which profits from doomsday scenario reporting, governmental bureaucrats who want more power over our lives, and socialists who want to level-out global living standards. These many alarmist groups appear to have little concern over whether their global warming prognostications are accurate, however. And they most certainly are not. The alarmists believe they will be able to scare enough of our citizens into believing their propaganda that the public will be willing to follow their advice on future energy usage and agree to a lowering of their standard of living in the name of climate salvation.

Rising levels of CO_2 are not near the threat these alarmists have portrayed them to be. There has yet to be a honest and broad scientific debate on the basic science of CO_2 's influence on global temperature. The global climate models predicting large amounts of global warming for a doubling of CO_2 are badly flawed. They should never have been used to establish government climate policy.

The last century's global warming of about 1 degree F is not a consequence of human activities. This warming is primarily the result of a multi-century changes in the globe's deep ocean circulation. These ocean current changes have lead to a small and gradual increase in the globe's temperature. We are coming out of the Little Ice Age and into a generally warmer climate state. This is akin to the warmer global climate of the Medieval Period. We can do nothing but adapt to such long period natural temperature changes.

The recent 'ClimateGate' revelations coming out of the UK University of East Anglia are but the tip of a giant iceberg of a well organized international climate warming conspiracy that has been gathering momentum for the last 25 years. This conspiracy would become much more manifest if all the e-mails of the publically funded climate research groups of the US and of foreign governments were ever made public.

The disastrous economic consequences of restricting CO_2 emissions from the present by as much as 20 percent by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050 (as being proposed in Copenhagen) have yet to be digested by the general public. Such CO_2 output decreases would cause very large increases in our energy costs, a lowering of our standard of living, and do nothing of significance to improve our climate.

The Cap-and-Trade bill presently before Congress, the likely climate agreements coming out of the Copenhagen Conference, and the EPA's just announced decision to treat CO_2 as a pollutant represents a grave threat to the industrial world's continued economic development. We should not allow these proposals to restrict our economic growth. Any United Nations climate bill our country might sign would act as an infringement on our country's sovereignty.


______________________________________________


Any United Nations climate bill our country might sign would act as an infringement on our country's sovereignty.




lol - im not touching that last part, just crazy talk anyway as we comply and contribute to UN mandates all the time.

My response:

The estimates of a 1 degree temp change are averaged and conservative. The change is proceeding rapidly in some areas.

Grey still fails to adequately explain change he presents. If he wishes to use the deep ocean circ patterns he needs to model them and present his findings. Immediately.why haven't oceanographers reported similar findings? If the oceans are releasing heat where are they cooling or is where is warming mitigated relative to atmosphere??


This is akin to the warmer global climate of the Medieval Period. We can do nothing but adapt to such long period natural temperature changes.


Then we shouldnt have surpassed the rate of melting of that period and causes for that warming should be similar to causes present now.

The world population is 6.802 billion currently what "adaptions" are necessary and where? This ISN'T the medieval period. If he is going to float another science for warming he needs to address is as well as the issues. Also will reducing CO2 in his "deep ocean" warming scheme also reduce the rate of change?

Medieval Warm Period

current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this time frame, and the conventional terms of 'Little Ice Age' and 'Medieval Warm Period' appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries". Global temperature records taken from ice cores, tree rings, and lake deposits, have shown that, taken globally, the Earth may have been slightly cooler (by 0.03 degrees Celsius) during the 'Medieval Warm Period' than in the early- and mid-20th century. Crowley and Lowery (2000) note that "there is insufficient documentation as to its existence in the Southern hemisphere.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
No internet, very little communication between disciplines.

I wonder how many even knew of solar flux readings or what colleagues were stating in Britain much less the soviet union.

And rich was responding to someone saying scientist WERE calling for cooling anyway.

That was false - thats the point here.


I started teh 70's thing last night, and I wasn't trying to say scientists personally said that their was a coming ice age, because being born in 71 I had no direct access to scientists, and Al gore had yet to make the internet that he "invented" available to we common folk. The average Joe back then had the media as their primary source of information (they were at least a little more trustworthy than they are today), and the media then reported that there was a concensus as demonstrated in the articles provided by another user of this site. There is also no concensus now, as evidenced by the 31,000 or more scientists who signed the petition against the freight train called AGM (or now climate change since AGW doesn't work so well in a period where the temps have stalled). 31,000 against vs. 2000 or so for is hardly a consencus. I don't know which side is correct, but changes should be made incrementally so as not to cripple our economy and those of other nations.That seems very easy to understand. Maybe we need an economist and a climate scientists to referee here. StSimons will surely ask as he did last night "are those scientists climate scientists?" The petition is readily available on the net, so see for yourself. One thing is for sure, their study was paid for by independent sources (or at least more independent than anything produced by IPCC or the petrol industry, Wall Street,or big green. It appears that "climate" sciences use methods and or info used by other branches of science such as geology etc., so do they really need to be "climate' scientists to count in this debate? Might there opinions be valuable anyway? 31,000 is a large number. My guess, yes guess, would be that even if you seperated out non-climate scientists from the petition that you would still come up with more than 2000 that say we need better & more research before making huge financial commitments that may or may not help, and may not be needed. StSimons may well be correct about there being no concensus in the 70's, but then we are also correct in saying there is no concensus now. Not everyone has access to old papers or new for that matter. If good verifiable science shows there is an issue, we will deal with it, and by extreme measures if we know for sure that is what is needed. In the mean-time make reasonable changes and ask those like Mr. Gore who make a MUCH larger carbon footprint than you & I to do the same. I drive a vehicle with a 4 cyl engine, I use florescent bulbs, run my heat/air & lights as little as possible. I leave my private jet at home when I can choose a less polluting method of travel (yeah, I wish)! I would like to see those guys in Copenhagen do the same before crashing the economy even further. I don't know about all of you, but I don't have the extra $3000 a year for energy bills that are expected as a consequence of these proposed changes (not to mention my concern over unintended consequences). I'v lived a minimalist life-style most of my life, but I don't want that forced upon me by people who don't live that way themselves
Quoting Orcasystems:


I sure hope so... as a habit I don't put people on ignore if they are at least ontopic... we have had some post that are so far out there lately its insane. I added two people I normally respect to that list this morning...


Blast it all! Orka, did you put me on ignore? Oh, wait a minute...people you respect, leaves me totally in the clear. I tell ya, I never get any respect. Why, just the other day I was looking out my window, and I got arrested for mooning!
Quoting Orcasystems:


I think thats the whole idea of them posting them. The more extremest views are the ones that get the most response from the other extreme.

A lot like baiting a troll.. and it seems to be working very well, they have taken over the blog.

I miss JFV :(


Ya this is a sad sight, where TDude with the troll spray.
I would love to see Dr. Masters include a poll or two about climate change beliefs. I'm really curious about overall sentiment of his readers. Of course, don't set up the polls in a 'Do you still beat your wife' sort of way. I think there are many lurkers and I'm curious as to what many believe here not just the loudest few.
Quoting mikatnight:


Blast it all! Orka, did you put me on ignore? Oh, wait a minute...people you respect, leaves me totally in the clear. I tell ya, I never get any respect. Why, just the other day I was looking out my window, and I got arrested for mooning!


ROFL, no it wasn't you
Quoting FFtrombi:
I must say it is pretty obvious that the people who most vociferously deny global warming on this blog tend not to be able to concede any points with a simple:

You are right about this, thank you for correcting me.

Part of being intelligent and unbiased is the ability to admit when you are wrong, on both sides. There is no church going on, nobody on this blog trying to hoodwink others, the only people who might be doing that are the professionals, so acting civil towards each other should be common sense.


Notice that you yourself chose the word 'deny'.

Deny suggests that we acknowledge the claims by the IPCC/AGW and simply deny it as true. The use of age old propaganda techniques bellows out of the halls of The Church of the IPCC/AGW.

Clever choice of words by the IPCC/AGW.

A much better word is 'dispute... Definition:1. To argue about; debate. 2. To question the truth or validity of'

We dispute the claims of the IPCC/AGW and declare them false.

Might I suggest that all you lurkers out there, who disagree with what the IPCC wants to do and with the falsified information, adopt the position it is a dispute.


I have not looked through the whole blog, but has anyone discussed the EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2010 from Klotzbach and Gray?

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
9 December 2009
Forecast for 2010
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
11-16
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
51-75
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)
6-8
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)
24-39
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)
3-5
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0)
6-12
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)
100-162
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)
108-172
PROBABILITIES

I see they have changed to the NOAA type format of a range instead of a specific number.
The concept of a Medieval Warm
Epoch
(MWE) was first articulated by
Lamb in 1965 (1). Lamb based his argument
almost exclusively on historical anecdotes
and paleoclimatic data from western
Europe.
Using these data to construct indices
of “summer wetness” and “winter
severity,” he found evidence for warm, dry
summers and mild winters centered around
1100 to 1200 A.D.

Lamb’s studies predated modern quantitative
paleoclimatology in which proxy
records of climate change are calibrated
against instrumental observations. The
temperature change that he attributed to
the MWE (1° to 2°C above average) was
based largely on his own estimates and personal
perspective. Lamb alluded to a few
studies in other parts of the world where
conditions appeared to have been warm at
this time, but never attempted to estimate
the magnitude of a global or even hemispheric
Medieval temperature anomaly.
His estimates pertain only to western
Europe.
Lamb compared past temperatures with
mean temperatures from 1900 to 1939,
which he referred to as the “modern normal”
period
(3). Because of the pronounced
rise in temperature in the late 20th
century, the period that Lamb considered
“normal” was ~0.3°C cooler over Europe
than the past 30 years.


Wow. The MWP has been brought up several times here.
906. IKE
Quoting trinigal:
I would love to see Dr. Masters include a poll or two about climate change beliefs. I'm really curious about overall sentiment of his readers. Of course, don't set up the polls in a 'Do you still beat your wife' sort of way. I think there are many lurkers and I'm curious as to what many believe here not just the loudest few.


Maybe the better question is...what have you changed in your life because of it?

Also...maybe some wouldn't be so overweight if they would spend a smaller portion of their life sitting in a chair in front of a computer and more of it doing physical labor.


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I have not looked through the whole blog, but has anyone discussed the EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2010 from Klotzbach and Gray?

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
9 December 2009
Forecast for 2010
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
11-16
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
51-75
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)
6-8
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)
24-39
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)
3-5
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0)
6-12
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)
100-162
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)
108-172
PROBABILITIES

I see they have changed to the NOAA type format of a range instead of a specific number.


I don't think it's even been mentioned..lol.
Quoting calusakat:


Notice that you yourself chose the word 'deny'.

Deny suggests that we acknowledge the claims by the IPCC/AGW and simply deny it as true. The use of age old propaganda techniques bellows out of the halls of The Church of the IPCC/AGW.

Clever choice of words by the IPCC/AGW.

A much better word is 'dispute... Definition:1. To argue about; debate. 2. To question the truth or validity of'

We dispute the claims of the IPCC/AGW and declare them false.

Might I suggest that all you lurkers out there, who disagree with what the IPCC wants to do and with the falsified information, adopt the position it is a dispute.




then of course provide no concrete proof, and cry out unfairness as you are doing now.

Usually when a crime is committed there is an actual crime.
Do you get paid by the post JFLor?
Are you in the employ of George S?
Sure seems that way.
Quoting IKE:


Maybe the better question is...what have you changed in your life because of it?


While living in the Caribbean, I did stock up extra supplies for the occasional big storm as a result of this blog :)

Now, if you're wondering if my position has in any way changed on climate change as a result of this blog, the answer would be no. In the 90s and earlier in this decade, much of my studies involved climate change throughout geologic time. I developed my views then and haven't come across anything to change my mind...yet LOL.
I tried putting someone on ignore once, but I had to change 'em back - figured I was missing out on the entertainment. Felt like I was cutting off my nose to spite my face (which as I just mentioned, was recently involved in a horrible case of mistaken identity).
You always have your "bullet points" ready.
Got your own data base to mine as well.
I hope Dr. Masters will continue to post frequently on this topic...there have been, actually, many flowers to be found among the weeds here...I am learning a great deal from both perspectives...it seems to me most any reasonable person can overlook the vitriol and gleen important informastion here...
"Take cars for instance - the MOST efficient internal combustion engine wastes roughly 70% of its potential energy, dissipating that energy as heat. As an illustrative example, the 200hp engine in your car generates approximately 149kW of power. That is with 70% wasted energy. If that exact same engine was 100% efficient, you would suddenly get 665hp out of the same engine (in theory - some energy would still be lost via friction)

The same concept of power efficiency is true for all power generation, from coal to nuclear power."

LOL! You haven't studied mechanical engineering, have you? There is no such thing as anything close to a 100% efficient mechanical process. You will never get 100% of the mechanical power that you put into a system out of it as mechanical power (unless, of course, you aren't putting any into it...) Once you do figure out these 100% efficient power generation methods, though, please publish your results. There's a Nobel Prize in Physics waiting for you upon publication.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


then of course provide no concrete proof, and cry out unfairness as you are doing now.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Do you get paid by the post JFLor?
Are you in the employ of George S?
Sure seems that way.


Do you get paid to disparage. Do you have anything you believe in, that is worth getting right.

So now I am going to be criticized for sourced argument.

I'll leave now so you can have myspace sparkle weather chat with your friends.

When we get back to climate and science (as is used in actual hurricane prediction) I will return.
I dont spend nearly the time or effort you do here. Back to lurking.
Quoting trinigal:
I would love to see Dr. Masters include a poll or two about climate change beliefs. I'm really curious about overall sentiment of his readers. Of course, don't set up the polls in a 'Do you still beat your wife' sort of way. I think there are many lurkers and I'm curious as to what many believe here not just the loudest few.


He had one up at the start of this year, before hurricane season.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I have not looked through the whole blog, but has anyone discussed the EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2010 from Klotzbach and Gray?

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
9 December 2009
Forecast for 2010
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
11-16
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
51-75
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)
6-8
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)
24-39
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)
3-5
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0)
6-12
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)
100-162
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)
108-172
PROBABILITIES

I see they have changed to the NOAA type format of a range instead of a specific number.


What is the matter with you,bringing up tropical discussion,please don't go off topic!!
Oh wait a minute,this is a tropical discussion blog...nevermind!!!
Quoting CaneWarning:


Do yourself a favor and put that guy on ignore. You are wasting your time.


Exactly. Lots of air pollution on here this morning. Most of it is insufferable which is why I don't even want to get started. Can't reason with the unreasonable. Morning to all the rational human beings on the blog this morning.
Me too press. Things get so personal...
YOu didnt anwer the question tho. now back to lurking.
Quoting jeffs713:


He had one up at the start of this year, before hurricane season.


I'm very curious about it. Do you remember, roughly, what the results were?
As one of the few not recently laid off, I better get to work! Have fun all. Thanks for the stimulating debate the last day or so.
Quoting FFtrombi:
I must say it is pretty obvious that the people who most vociferously deny global warming on this blog tend not to be able to concede any points with a simple:

You are right about this, thank you for correcting me.

Part of being intelligent and unbiased is the ability to admit when you are wrong, on both sides. There is no church going on, nobody on this blog trying to hoodwink others, the only people who might be doing that are the professionals, so acting civil towards each other should be common sense.


Excellent post!
Quoting IKE:


Maybe the better question is...what have you changed in your life because of it?

Also...maybe some wouldn't be so overweight if they would spend a smaller portion of their life sitting in a chair in front of a computer and more of it doing physical labor.




I don't think it's even been mentioned..lol.


The overweight part there just has me ROFL.
Quoting FFtrombi:
I must say it is pretty obvious that the people who most vociferously deny global warming on this blog tend not to be able to concede any points with a simple:

You are right about this, thank you for correcting me.

Part of being intelligent and unbiased is the ability to admit when you are wrong, on both sides. There is no church going on, nobody on this blog trying to hoodwink others, the only people who might be doing that are the professionals, so acting civil towards each other should be common sense.


That goes both ways.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
YOu didnt anwer the question tho. now back to lurking.


I did several times - as I am asked constantly. I am a student in visual art and have one id here. Not paid by a long shot. I have been here/lurking for a very, very long time in WU years.
Quoting trinigal:


I'm very curious about it. Do you remember, roughly, what the results were?


Upper right under Dr. Masters picture are the poll results.
Quoting presslord:
I hope Dr. Masters will continue to post frequently on this topic...there have been, actually, many flowers to be found among the weeds here...I am learning a great deal from both perspectives...it seems to me most any reasonable person can overlook the vitriol and gleen important informastion here...


I wholeheartedly agree.
I have to admit.. some of the post on here have made me rethink my views on this whole subject. Any group that insist they are right.. and EVERYONE else is wrong... and needs to be converted to the light... scares the begeezes out of me.

There are a few groups out there in this world that hold that opinion...
sorry to go off topic,, but just curious about the weather system that may or may not affect the east coast on dec 16 or 17th,, any thoughts , tyia, gregg
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Exactly. Lots of air pollution on here this morning. Most of it is insufferable which is why I don't even want to get started. Can't reason with the unreasonable. Morning to all the rational human beings on the blog this morning.


Morning junky! Is it foggy down there? Tampa is covered in fog now.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I have not looked through the whole blog, but has anyone discussed the EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2010 from Klotzbach and Gray?

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
9 December 2009
Forecast for 2010
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
11-16
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
51-75
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)
6-8
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)
24-39
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)
3-5
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0)
6-12
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)
100-162
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)
108-172
PROBABILITIES

I see they have changed to the NOAA type format of a range instead of a specific number.

Yeah, we have been talking a little about this. Dr. M came on and said he would cover it in his next post...likely sometime soon...today.
Quoting Orcasystems:
I have to admit.. some of the post on here have made me rethink my views on this whole subject. Any group that insist they are right.. and EVERYONE else is wrong... and needs to be converted to the light... scares the begeezes out of me.

There are a few groups out there in this world that hold that opinion...


You should only be looking at sourced stuff. Edit out opinion, even mine and make an informed decision on fact and truth.
WunderPoll Results:
The "official" word on climate change, the 2007 report from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), concluded that there was a greater than 90% chance that most of the observed global warming in the past 50 years was due to emission of greenhouse gases by human activity. Do you agree with the IPCC?


Yes, human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are primarily responsible for global warming.

525 (55.2%)
No, natural causes are primarily responsible for global warming.

426 (44.8%)
Total: 951 (100%)

Orcasystems.... you've got mail
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah, we have been talking a little about this. Dr. M came on and said he would cover it in his next post...likely sometime soon...today.


Atmo, thanks.

If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.


Although our seasonal hurricane forecast scheme has shown significant real-time skill for our early June and early August predictions, we have yet to demonstrate real-time forecast skill for our early December forecasts that have been issued for the last 18 years (1992-2009).
Our initial 6-11 month early December seasonal hurricane forecast scheme (Scheme A) (Gray et al. 1992), although demonstrating appreciable hindcast skill for the
7
period from 1950-1990, did not give skillful results when utilized for 10 real-time forecasts between 1992-2001. This was due to the discontinuation of the strong relationships we had earlier found between West African rainfall and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with Atlantic basin major hurricane activity 6-11 months in the future. We did not expect these African rainfall and QBO predictive relationships that had worked so well during the 41-year period from 1950-1990 to stop working. We do not yet have a good explanation. We have discontinued this earlier 1 December forecast scheme and have developed two new 1 December forecast schemes (Schemes B and C) since that time.
Beginning with the 2002 December forecast for the 2003 season, we relied on a new early December forecast scheme (Scheme B) (Klotzbach and Gray 2004) which did not utilize West African rainfall and gave less weight to the QBO. This newer statistical scheme, although showing improved hindcast skill, did not demonstrate real-time forecast skill for the four years from 2003-2006. A slightly modified scheme was used in 2007.
We developed a new statistical forecast methodology for our early December prediction in 2007 for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season (Scheme C). We developed this forecast due to the fact that our real-time forecasts issued in early December from 1992-2007 did not show skill in real time. For full details on the new forecast methodology, please refer to the published paper (Klotzbach 2008). Table 1 summarizes the characteristics of our two most recent 1 December forecast schemes.
...also...Dr. Masters engaging in the blog dialogue has been very useful to me as I try to sort out exactly what I think about all this...
Quoting pinehurstnc:
sorry to go off topic,, but just curious about the weather system that may or may not affect the east coast on dec 16 or 17th,, any thoughts , tyia, gregg


Thats not off topic this is a weather blog after all. =)
Quoting trinigal:


But don't you see the left does that too? I see the left and the right equally guilty of the same things, as you've just demonstrated. Do you think maybe rather than throw dust on the ones throwing dust, there might be a better way that brings you above the fray?


That's not true. The right just represents blind opposition and fake outrage now. They don't want to come up with solutions to our problems, they want to champion the same old tired ideas that failed miserably for the last 8 years. If there were fresh alternative ideas that represented practical solutions to major problems coming from the right I'd be the first to recognize them. I think the right needs to sit on the sidelines for a while and see if Obama's ideas work. So far, they've had more success than anything the right did for 8 years under Bush. If in 3 more years the Obama administration has left this country worse then what they inherited (impossible) then I'd be the first to concur that he wasn't necessarily a good President. Seeing as how the country has already improved measurably since his taking office, I think slow improvement will continue. Considering what he inherited, it's a miracle we are where we are right now. Having said that, I would love to see Republicans and Democrats work together meaningfully but I don't see it happening.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Morning
Quoting mikatnight:


Blast it all! Orka, did you put me on ignore? Oh, wait a minute...people you respect, leaves me totally in the clear. I tell ya, I never get any respect. Why, just the other day I was looking out my window, and I got arrested for mooning!


Hey I respect you mik. Those were some classic photo posts, and on topic to boot!
Are there any examples of examples of governmental scientific organizations that deny the position that anthropogenic sources of CO2 effect climate?
This is a question posed on this blog in 2006. I'd like to see the list.
Quoting vbscript2:
"Take cars for instance - the MOST efficient internal combustion engine wastes roughly 70% of its potential energy, dissipating that energy as heat. As an illustrative example, the 200hp engine in your car generates approximately 149kW of power. That is with 70% wasted energy. If that exact same engine was 100% efficient, you would suddenly get 665hp out of the same engine (in theory - some energy would still be lost via friction)<BR>
The same concept of power efficiency is true for all power generation, from coal to nuclear power."

LOL! You haven't studied mechanical engineering, have you? There is no such thing as anything close to a 100% efficient mechanical process. You will never get 100% of the mechanical power that you put into a system out of it as mechanical power (unless, of course, you aren't putting any into it...) Once you do figure out these 100% efficient power generation methods, though, please publish your results. There's a Nobel Prize in Physics waiting for you upon publication.

Hi! If you would actually read the entire part that you QUOTED, you would see that I wrote "In theory" and that some energy would be lost via friction. When you quote someone and try to dispute them, it helps to actually read what you are quoting.
939. hurricanejunky 2:52 PM GMT on December 10, 2009

I can say too there is almost a cult of moderation that will pick the middle ground of everything just for appearances. While I share your hope I also think everything should be evaluated carefully and holistically; unsubstantiated proposals and outrageous claims discarded and not used to triangulate a successful policy.

I guess I am adding I hope they both work together that way.
Orcasystems.... you've got mail...again
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting FFtrombi:
I must say it is pretty obvious that the people who most vociferously deny global warming on this blog tend not to be able to concede any points with a simple:

You are right about this, thank you for correcting me.

Part of being intelligent and unbiased is the ability to admit when you are wrong, on both sides. There is no church going on, nobody on this blog trying to hoodwink others, the only people who might be doing that are the professionals, so acting civil towards each other should be common sense.


That goes both ways.


That's why he said in his post "both sides".
Quoting mikatnight:
WunderPoll Results:
The "official" word on climate change, the 2007 report from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), concluded that there was a greater than 90% chance that most of the observed global warming in the past 50 years was due to emission of greenhouse gases by human activity. Do you agree with the IPCC?


Yes, human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are primarily responsible for global warming.

525 (55.2%)
No, natural causes are primarily responsible for global warming.

426 (44.8%)
Total: 951 (100%)



Thank you for finding this. You are awesome!
Mornin Storm.
Quoting Orcasystems:
I have to admit.. some of the post on here have made me rethink my views on this whole subject. Any group that insist they are right.. and EVERYONE else is wrong... and needs to be converted to the light... scares the begeezes out of me.

There are a few groups out there in this world that hold that opinion...

Exactly right, Orca. I don't like an opinion being shoved down my throat in any circumstances. I'm open to listening to any opinion that is presented to me.. as long as they understand that I may completely end up disagreeing with them. As soon as my position is disparaged (as opposed to debated), I stop listening.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Morning junky! Is it foggy down there? Tampa is covered in fog now.


Good morning!
No, surprisingly enough. The local forecast had a dense fog warning but it never materialized. That's crazy. The fog the other morning was unreal. I've never seen it so thick even out on the water.
Quoting jeffs713:

Exactly right, Orca. I don't like an opinion being shoved down my throat in any circumstances. I'm open to listening to any opinion that is presented to me.. as long as they understand that I may completely end up disagreeing with them. As soon as my position is disparaged (as opposed to debated), I stop listening.


Bingo... give the man a Kupie Doll :)
Perhaps someone would like to review this item? Start at page 17 and have at it or the beginning if ya like :)

Section on TERRESTRIAL VS. SATELLITE TEMPERATURE RECORDS

BTW, this provides a good example of raw vs. processed data results
That's not true. The right just represents blind opposition and fake outrage now.


What a load...
Quoting hurricanejunky:


That's not true. The right just represents blind opposition and fake outrage now. They don't want to come up with solutions to our problems, they want to champion the same old tired ideas that failed miserably for the last 8 years. If there were fresh alternative ideas that represented practical solutions to major problems coming from the right I'd be the first to recognize them. I think the right needs to sit on the sidelines for a while and see if Obama's ideas work. So far, they've had more success than anything the right did for 8 years under Bush. If in 3 more years the Obama administration has left this country worse then what they inherited (impossible) then I'd be the first to concur that he wasn't necessarily a good President. Seeing as how the country has already improved measurably since his taking office, I think slow improvement will continue. Considering what he inherited, it's a miracle we are where we are right now. Having said that, I would love to see Republicans and Democrats work together meaningfully but I don't see it happening.


I completely respect your opinion as I respect those who feel this administration has done nothing constructive yet. Two very different views but as long as people can respect the rights of others to disagree and that their own opinions are simply their own opinions, the world becomes a more peaceful place. :)

Personally, I was beyond frustrated with the last administration and this administration is even worse so far (in my opinion) but what's a gal to do :)
Quoting trinigal:


But don't you see the left does that too? I see the left and the right equally guilty of the same things, as you've just demonstrated. Do you think maybe rather than throw dust on the ones throwing dust, there might be a better way that brings you above the fray?


Yes, I do see that. I wasn't necessarily throwing dust as I am a neutral. I vote for the person who is best qualified for the job at the time, regardless of party. I was merely pointing out that it seems Republicans are quick to the trigger this year. Their party took a beating last year and it shows, IMO.
Orcasystems.... you've got mail
Quoting biff4ugo:
Are there any examples of examples of governmental scientific organizations that deny the position that anthropogenic sources of CO2 effect climate?
This is a question posed on this blog in 2006. I'd like to see the list.


Not here that I know of. In India very recently there was government proclamation of glacial non melting in the Himalayas. Unusually it also had a disclaimer that government scientists may not agree with the government statement!
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Yes, I do see that. I wasn't necessarily throwing dust as I am a neutral. I vote for the person who is best qualified for the job at the time, regardless of party. I was merely pointing out that it seems Republicans are quick to the trigger this year. Their party took a beating last year and it shows, IMO.


I agree completely. Happens every time regardless of party. Guess that is human nature.
Quoting mikatnight:
WunderPoll Results:
The "official" word on climate change, the 2007 report from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), concluded that there was a greater than 90% chance that most of the observed global warming in the past 50 years was due to emission of greenhouse gases by human activity. Do you agree with the IPCC?


Yes, human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are primarily responsible for global warming.

525 (55.2%)
No, natural causes are primarily responsible for global warming.

426 (44.8%)
Total: 951 (100%)



Don't post that pinko commie leftie crap poll on here! LOL!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
That's not true. The right just represents blind opposition and fake outrage now.


What a load...


Why don't you point out one issue where the Republicans have come up with a meaningful alternative solution? You can't. Why? Because they aren't offering any.
Quoting hurricanejunky: >Why don't you point out one issue where the Republicans have come up with a meaningful alternative solution? You can't. Why? Because they aren't offering any.
Or is that they aren't offering any solution that is meaningful in your own eyes?
Quoting trinigal:


I completely respect your opinion as I respect those who feel this administration has done nothing constructive yet. Two very different views but as long as people can respect the rights of others to disagree and that their own opinions are simply their own opinions, the world becomes a more peaceful place. :)

Personally, I was beyond frustrated with the last administration and this administration is even worse so far (in my opinion) but what's a gal to do :)


Agreed.
0 Z GFS had us a little cold and rather dry for late next week.

The somewhat opaque 6 Z GFS crystal ball looks like light snow for SE LA and coastal MS.



Next output (12 hours later) 0 C line (southernmost blue) is waaay out in the gulf (should be rather cold here). And Delmarva has a nor'easter with strong onshore winds (but it is on the move, so flooding should be minimal).



And I put together a little blog post some of you may find interesting: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/atmoaggie/show.html
In a nutshell:

Human beings do not adapt to their environment. Humans adapt their environment to suit them. It all started with fire. We found that if we took fire to a confined space, we could heat our environment. Later we invented air-conditioning and applied the same principle. We are not satisfied however (we never remain satisfied for long), with the whole confined space thingy. We’ve tried building bigger and bigger confined spaces, but when it comes right down to it, turns out we don’t much care for the word “confined”. So it’s only natural that we’re trying to get around it.
Sort of like dipping our toe in the lake to see if we’re tough enough to take the plunge, we stand at the precipice of a scientific frontier that is fraught with danger and uncertainty. But those types of jumping off points are not new to us. It starts with an idea, which gathers momentum, and then someone takes the leap. The idea may start out as radical, but the actions taken as a result is progressive and taken step by step. And when you take the long view, we’re never wrong, and we never fail. Go Humans!
As to the anomaly chart in the OP, Megan McArdle cites Richard Feynmann's history of the Millikan experiment, where subsequent researchers "calibrated" their data in repeating the electron charge experiment. The measured charge on the electron increased with each experiment. You see, Millikan had failed to take into account the viscosity of air, and subsequent researches didn't want to completely debunk Millikan, so the value crept up slowly instead of all at once.

Something similar might have derived the situation on this chart, repeated in the linked post:
Quoting trinigal:


I completely respect your opinion as I respect those who feel this administration has done nothing constructive yet. Two very different views but as long as people can respect the rights of others to disagree and that their own opinions are simply their own opinions, the world becomes a more peaceful place. :)

Personally, I was beyond frustrated with the last administration and this administration is even worse so far (in my opinion) but what's a gal to do :)


I respect your opinion as well but I have to ask the question. What makes you feel this admimistration is worse? The economy is starting to show positive signs and we're not even a year into his presidency. I know some thought he'd wave his magic wand and 6 months in the economy would miraculously return to 1999 numbers but it doesn't work that way. We have to give him a little time. The messes created by the previous administration took 8 years to make and cleanup usually takes longer than to make the mess. Just my opinion. Thanks for the civil debate.
Quoting trinigal:


I completely respect your opinion as I respect those who feel this administration has done nothing constructive yet. Two very different views but as long as people can respect the rights of others to disagree and that their own opinions are simply their own opinions, the world becomes a more peaceful place. :)

Personally, I was beyond frustrated with the last administration and this administration is even worse so far (in my opinion) but what's a gal to do :)


Think of it like this. And, purely because I was amazed at this years biggest looser, simply amazing what one can do when focused.

A person wants to loose 200lbs. The first 6 months, 40 lbs is lost but, is not visible to the naked eye so nobody thinks your loosing weight, yet. As you start to loose 50 and 60, people start noticing. 60 and beyond the momentum builds as more and more people see and support your efforts until your goal of 200lbs is reached.

I personally think we're in the 50 to 60lb category right now with momentum building this spring.
Quoting trinigal:
Or is that they aren't offering any solution that is meaningful in your own eyes?


Yeah it must be a conspiracy by the liberal media to suppress all of the innovative ideas coming from the right. That's why I don't hear about any of them. Seriously, none that I've heard represent anything besides the tired old ideas we've heard during the last administration. Do you know of any? I'd like to hear them if you do.
Sorry about the politics, I will try to return to a suitable topic now (barring any replies I have to make).

Hopefully Dr. M will put us on a tropical weather topic later today! The Global Warming burnout is starting to set in....I hope everyone is having a wonderful morning!
HELLOOOOO!

I said snow, SE LA and Mississippi Coast. I'll throw in all of Alabama for light snow and Atlanta with a potential snow storm. And a nor'easter snow storm for the Wash-Boston corridor. Does anyone at all find that scenario interesting?

What is the deal this other junk? Presidential administrations comprised of politicians and what was the temperature in Australia 60 years ago? (Note: They just broke some high temp records previously set 150 years ago)
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Sorry about the politics, I will try to return to a suitable topic now (barring any replies I have to make).

Hopefully Dr. M will put us on a tropical weather topic later today! The Global Warming burnout is starting to set in....I hope everyone is having a wonderful morning!

There is no such thing as a reply "I have to make". I let things just go all the time.

Atmo - that snow is interesting indeed. We shall see.

Love your comic there. That is so true.
Good one atmoaggie (#972). And on that note, I am outta here...
I have what may seem to be an odd question. I suspect that a majority of those who are skeptical of man made global warming tend to have a creationist view of life on planet Earth. While those who think that global warming is the result of human activity, look through the lens of evolutionary processes.

I know that this may seem strange to some, and it may even irritate some who think that it isn't appropriate in this discussion. I am just curious.

Anybody wish to comment?

Thanks
Quoting atmoaggie:

There is no such thing as a reply "I have to make". I let things just go all the time.



You're right...Atmo, you're an insufferable know it all. LOL! ;)
Quoting mikatnight:
Good one atmoaggie (#972). And on that note, I am outta here...


Don't leave on my account, mik!
Quoting atmoaggie:

There is no such thing as a reply "I have to make". I let things just go all the time.



What do temps look like for central Florida as I see the system will track right over it or north of it.
A few years ago I started recording High/Low temperatures from 5 different sites in NC. 3 of those sites are in very rural areas, 1 is in a mixed rural/urban area and one is strictly Urban. I then compared the official temperatures to the 30 yr data for the same locations. I found that yes, the temperatures were rising but only for the Urban area which happened to be RDU, significantly higher. However, when the 30yr data was collected at RDU it was "out in the boonies" so to speak. Now it is totally surrounded by population and concrete. Whereas the temperatures at all other locations were below or equal to the 30yr data plus/minus 1 deg. When the data from all sites was averaged out there was a .10 degree rise in temperatures from the 30 yr data. I will have the 2009 data at the end of Dec. If Dec is "normal" I estimate that the data will be very close to normal and just possibly slightly below. I intend to continue my survey for many years since my small amount of data pales in comparison the the 30yr data.
So right now, I'm thinking the increase in population and the addition of God knows how many tons of cement and the loss of trees and forests has made the difference. If rural areas stay in step with the 30 yr data then I don't think we can call this "Global Warming", but rather overcrowding. The last time I checked my homesite in rural NC is still a part of the "Globe" and I don't have any warming over the 30 yr data.

MAC aka AFCHIEF
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I respect your opinion as well but I have to ask the question. What makes you feel this admimistration is worse? The economy is starting to show positive signs and we're not even a year into his presidency. I know some thought he'd wave his magic wand and 6 months in the economy would miraculously return to 1999 numbers but it doesn't work that way. We have to give him a little time. The messes created by the previous administration took 8 years to make and cleanup usually takes longer than to make the mess. Just my opinion. Thanks for the civil debate.


Oh dear, I could write a book on this or, if not a book, a really long paper :)

I don't want to irritate people too much so I'll keep some of my opinions off of here but a big problem I had during the last administration was the spending. Now I know our current President gets blamed for record deficits when, truth be told, the last administration set quite a bit of that in motion before leaving office. However, that said, this administration's spending is outrageous. Also, I run a website and talk to women all over the world daily about healthcare issues. I have some strong thoughts on the healthcare reform being suggested. I know what the media is reporting about the economy but I don't have that warm fuzzy feeling about it yet. I think we're still in for some even tougher times and we just cannot blame everything that goes wrong on the last administration. At some point, this administration needs to start owning up to their own mistakes and failures (and, yes, that could be said for the last administration as well).

I do think the majority of America can look at the past few administrations and lay blame where blame is due. There will always be those, however, who will go down with any sinking ship. I just appreciate the various points of view :)



NEW BLOG!!!!!
New blog
not a great article

I'll leave now so you can have myspace sparkle weather chat with your friends.

OH, Thank you, thank you, m'Lord!
I see my Church of CC/AGW has been busy proselytizing this morning... I wish our preachers realized that "no souls are won in more than 20 minutes."

Good morning everyone! Bright sunny and cold here, though not that cold in comparison to the Midwest.

Anyone else catch Drew Brees on Jay Leno last night? He certainly is a charmer -- can't wait for the N.O.-Dallas game (Falcons, don't care so much). As a resident of Deadskins land, plus my son was born near Denver...well, gotta' shmear the Cowboys!

Let's see, what else...OH, MikatNight, the editorial cartoons you posted are great...say so much with so few words -- plus they make you smile, and I don't think they are offensive even if you disagree (if you have a sense of humor.)
Real subtle, aren't I?

...not sure if Aussie already addressed the wildfires today...gee, hope it's okay to post other (int'l./weather/climate) news!

From "The Starting Point"

In other news: More than 120 wildfires burned across southeastern Australia today, AFP reported. As temperatures climbed above 100 degrees, thousands of firefighters battled the wind-whipped fires, including one large blaze that burned dangerously close to farming properties in New South Wales. At the time of this writing, a park ranger has died and a pilot was seriously injured when their helicopter crashed while mapping the fires.
"Climate change" or "Global warming" or whatever they are calling it now is the latest way for the world at large to get their hands on America's wealth. Only one nation will pay - the US-of-A!!
Quoting Drewby:
"Climate change" or "Global warming" or whatever they are calling it now is the latest way for the world at large to get their hands on America's wealth. Only one nation will pay - the US-of-A!!



Don't waste yer breath!
Quoting trinigal:


Oh dear, I could write a book on this or, if not a book, a really long paper :)

I don't want to irritate people too much so I'll keep some of my opinions off of here but a big problem I had during the last administration was the spending. Now I know our current President gets blamed for record deficits when, truth be told, the last administration set quite a bit of that in motion before leaving office. However, that said, this administration's spending is outrageous. Also, I run a website and talk to women all over the world daily about healthcare issues. I have some strong thoughts on the healthcare reform being suggested. I know what the media is reporting about the economy but I don't have that warm fuzzy feeling about it yet. I think we're still in for some even tougher times and we just cannot blame everything that goes wrong on the last administration. At some point, this administration needs to start owning up to their own mistakes and failures (and, yes, that could be said for the last administration as well).

I do think the majority of America can look at the past few administrations and lay blame where blame is due. There will always be those, however, who will go down with any sinking ship. I just appreciate the various points of view :)





It's less than a year into his presidency. You can't expect him to own everything now. In 2 years maybe. I respect your views although we don't agree on everything. The jury is still out and he should be given more time before calling for the guillotine is all I'm saying.
Quoting JustBobby:
I have what may seem to be an odd question. I suspect that a majority of those who are skeptical of man made global warming tend to have a creationist view of life on planet Earth. While those who think that global warming is the result of human activity, look through the lens of evolutionary processes.

I know that this may seem strange to some, and it may even irritate some who think that it isn't appropriate in this discussion. I am just curious.

Anybody wish to comment?

Thanks


No, I don't think this is necessarily true. I do think this is more of a political issue...left vs. right if you will. More people on the left, but not all, subscribe to evolutionary theory whereas as more people on the right, but not all, subscribe to more God-centered theories. That said, I know democrats who believe current climate change patterns are naturally occurring and I even know some 'George Bush was the best President ever' types who think it is human caused.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Don't waste yer breath!


LOL, that goes for both sides, doesn't it Doug?
The pomposity has just been overwhelming... I have a "side" but can't stand blowhards or extremists!
See you on the other side! I mean, new Blog...:)
Quoting hurricanejunky:


It's less than a year into his presidency. You can't expect him to own everything now. In 2 years maybe. I respect your views although we don't agree on everything. The jury is still out and he should be given more time before calling for the guillotine is all I'm saying.


Hey, I hear you! There is always that overlap between administrations. I tend to be anti-guillotine myself. Too messy and the clean up is a nightmare.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Ossgss
Monkton is in the link you gave. A proven sensationalist whose aligances are well known. All the graphics and pop headlines with quotable snippits in that article goes along with the same lack of seriousness or rigor in his political posts.
They use the same quotes from the email talking about "tricks".
FYI look up the number of software classes with "trick" in the title. I attend a tips and tricks class on my spatial analysis software that suggests and teaches quick, easy, or less obvious ways to work with large awkward datasets, get through ponderous methods more easily, etc. It has nothing to do with being misleading, clandestine, or secrative.

Look it up.


Understood, where is the referenced analysis wrong, is the question :)

and new blog ...
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I'll leave now so you can have myspace sparkle weather chat with your friends.

OH, Thank you, thank you, m'Lord!
I see my Church of CC/AGW has been busy proselytizing this morning... I wish our preachers realized that "no souls are won in more than 20 minutes."

Good morning everyone! Bright sunny and cold here, though not that cold in comparison to the Midwest.

Anyone else catch Drew Brees on Jay Leno last night? He certainly is a charmer -- can't wait for the N.O.-Dallas game (Falcons, don't care so much). As a resident of Deadskins land, plus my son was born near Denver...well, gotta' shmear the Cowboys!

Let's see, what else...OH, MikatNight, the editorial cartoons you posted are great...say so much with so few words -- plus they make you smile, and I don't think they are offensive even if you disagree (if you have a sense of humor.)
Real subtle, aren't I?

...not sure if Aussie already addressed the wildfires today...gee, hope it's okay to post other (int'l./weather/climate) news!

From "The Starting Point"

In other news: More than 120 wildfires burned across southeastern Australia today, AFP reported. As temperatures climbed above 100 degrees, thousands of firefighters battled the wind-whipped fires, including one large blaze that burned dangerously close to farming properties in New South Wales. At the time of this writing, a park ranger has died and a pilot was seriously injured when their helicopter crashed while mapping the fires.


There is currently 98 bush/scrub/grass fires burning in NSW. 28 are out of control.

Just some info on some of the fires burning in NSW

Current Situation

Black Pinch Fire:

The fire is currently burning north east of Tenterfield, approx 5km West of Drake.

The Bruxner Highway is closed at this location until further notice.

This afternoon the fire crossed the Bruxner Highway near McLeods Creek and is moving rapidly in a north east direction. Isolated properties in the area may come under threat later this evening.

Surveyors Creek Fire.

The fire is currently burning uncontained near the isolated rural community of Wytaliba, approx 65 km East of Glenn Innes.

The fire has crossed Spring Creek Road and will potentially threaten properties along the Old Glenn Innes Rd this evening.

Kangawalla Fire.

A fire is burning in the Kangawalla Gaming Reserve, around 16km East of Glenn Innes.

The Gaming Reserve has been closed until further notice.

Fire crews are working in the area to protect property.

Cataract Fire & Clarke Fire

A fire is burning near the isolated rural community of Currawinya, approx 50 km north west of Tabulam.

Fire crews are working in the area to protect property.

Lincon Hill

A fire is burning in the area of River Tree Rd, Liston. approximately 30km east of Stanthorp.

Fire crews are currently conducting property protection in the area.

Acacia Plateau

A fire is burning near the NSW-QLD border, around 6km North of the Legume Village.

Fire crews are currently working in the area to contain the fire.

Black Creek – Granite Creek Fire

The fire continues to burn uncontained around 10 kilometres north of Torrington.

Fire crews have assisted landholders construct containments lines around properties and will continue to monitor the fire overnight.
Thanks, Aussie!

Hope you post in new blog, if you haven't already! I haven't been there yet...quick break to refill hot coffee...see you there.
Thnx.
atmo , thanks 4 answering my ? it was appreciated,,
ref 954
Datasets less than 30 years may be missing the longer climate cycles and datasets less than 11 years are definitely missing solar cycles. Many of the datasets showing reverse trends are less than 10 and some are 4. Notice the shorter the record, the more the graphs show cooling. The cool trend graphs do not have the same weight of data behind them. They are poor predictors with weak support but displayed the same way. That is definitely misleading. The stronger/longer datasets show the warm trend.
The report even puts shadow lines behind their graphs to make it look like there is more data that agrees.