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1-in-100 year rains cause extreme flooding in NY, PA; Nate, Maria, and Katia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2011

An extreme rainfall event unprecedented in recorded history has hit the Binghamton, New York area, where 7.49" fell yesterday. This is the second year in a row Binghamton has recorded a 1-in-100 year rain event; their previous all-time record was set last September, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Records go back to 1890 in the city. The skies have now cleared in Binghamton, with this morning's rain bringing the city's total rainfall for the 40-hour event to 9.02". However, another large region of rain lies just to the south in Pennsylvania, and all of the rivers in the surrounding region are in major or record flood. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at 25.18', its highest level since records began in 1847, and is expected to overtop the flood walls protecting the city this afternoon. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Widespread flash flooding is occurring across the entire area, and over 125,000 people have been evacuated from their homes.


Figure 1. Radar-observed rainfall from the Binghamton, NY radar.


Figure 2. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton is at its highest flood height on record this morning (25 feet.) Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. In Hershey, Pennsylvania, Swatara Creek is 18' over flood stage, and more than 8' above its record flood crest. Records at this gage go back to 1930. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

The extreme rains are due the the remains of Tropical Storm Lee interacting with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix last night was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front. You don't often see a major city break its all-time 24-hour precipitation record by a 60% margin, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and he can't recall ever seeing it happen before. It's worth noting that the Susquehanna River Binghamton stream gage, which has been in operation since 1847, is due to be shut off in 3 weeks due to budget cuts. Here's the note at the USGS web site:

NOTICE (03/23/2011)--Data collection at this streamgage may be discontinued after October 1, 2011 due to funding reductions from partner agencies. Although historic data will remain accessible, no new data will be collected unless one or more new funding partners are found. Users who are willing to contribute funding to continue operation of this streamgage should contact Rob Breault or Ward Freeman of the USGS New York Water Science Center at 518-285-5658 or dc_ny@usgs.gov.

Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico yesterday afternoon after the Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation and 45 mph surface winds. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equaling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate's low-level center is exposed to view, due to northeasterly upper-level winds that are creating a moderate 10 knots of wind shear. This shear is keeping all of Nate's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the south side of the center. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of Nate, were north at 31 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. We haven't had a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm since yesterday afternoon, and the next plane is due to arrive near 2 pm this afternoon. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of Nate, and this dry air is probably interfering with the storm's development.

Up until last night's 8 pm EDT runs of the computer models, the models were in general agreement that Nate would meander in the Bay of Campeche for several days, until a ridge of high pressure built in to the north of the storm, forcing it westwards to a landfall in Mexico. However, the latest 2 am EDT run by the GFS model predicts that Nate may gain enough latitude to escape being forced westwards by the ridge, and instead move northwards to make a landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The GFDL, which uses the GFS for its initial conditions, is also on board with this idea, as is the HWRF model, to a lesser degree. The 2 am EDT run of the NOGAPS model did not go along with this idea, though. We will have to wait until the NOAA jet makes its first mission to sample the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico to get a better idea on how probable this northern path might be; their first flight will be tonight, and the data will make it into the 8 pm models runs that will be available first thing Friday morning. As far as intensity goes, the very dry air to Nate's north should begin being less of a problem for it by Friday, when the upper level winds shift more to blow from the southeast, and the shear drops to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. Since the storm is moving very slowly, it will upwell cooler waters from the depths that will slow intensification, though. The earliest Nate would become a hurricane is probably on Saturday.


Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storm Maria, and Tropical Storm Nate taken at 8 am EDT September 8, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria is midway between the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands the coast of Africa, and due to arrive in the Northern Lesser Antilles late Friday night or Saturday morning. Satellite loops show that Maria has been ripped up pretty badly by the 10 - 20 knots of wind shear affecting it, with the low-level center exposed to view, and a few disorganized clumps of heavy thunderstorms lying to the west and northeast of the center. Water vapor satellite images show that Maria is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. Maria passed just south of Buoy 41041 this morning, and top sustained winds during passage were 42 mph, gusting to 56 mph. Maria will pass close to buoy 41040 near 8pm EDT tonight.

With wind shear predicted to continue in the moderate range for the next five days, and the storm struggling to maintain its circulation, strengthening of Maria to a hurricane before it reaches the Lesser Antilles seems unlikely at this time. None of the intensity models are calling for Maria to reach hurricane strength until well after the storm passes Puerto Rico. However, Mike Ventrice, a meteorology Ph.D. student at the University of Albany, pointed out to me yesterday that a atmospheric disturbance known as a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) is passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands today, and is headed eastwards towards Maria at 25 mph. Maria will encounter this CCKW Thursday night or Friday morning. There is a great deal of upward-moving air in the vicinity of a CCKW, and will help strengthen the updrafts in Maria's thunderstorms, potentially intensifying the storm. None of our models are detailed enough to "see" CCKWs", so we may see more intensification of the storm than the models are calling for. Given the disorganized state Maria is currently in, though, the extra boost in upward motion provided by the CCKW may not make of a difference to the storm.

The track forecasts for Maria from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, Maria has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 - 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The UKMET model prefers a more southerly track for Maria through the Turk and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the other models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. Climatology favors a track that would miss the U.S., with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting that Maria has a 14% chance of hitting Canada, 5% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 18% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia has brought a few rain showers and some gusty winds of 20 - 30 mph to Bermuda last night and this morning, but is not going to bring hazardous weather to the island as the storm makes it swing around Bermuda today and tomorrow. Latest satellite loops show that Katia is a shadow of its former Category 4 self, as dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm into the eye. Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Bryn Athyn, PA
Bryn Athyn, PA
Fetters Mill 9-8-11 morning

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting WetBankGuy:


They would have turned around and come home, because nobody from New Orleans is going to the Florida panhandle to evacuate. OK, nobody with any sense.

Trying to evacuate close to million people along 12 Interstate lanes is a bit of a chore, so early is always better and north (inland) is always the way to go.


I beg to differ. I live in Fort Walton Beach(FWB) and during Katrina we had a lot of LA evacuees in town shortly before Katrina hit! Lots of LA folks have property in FWB and Destin, some even keep their boats here. Southern LA is on average about 4 hours from the FL Panhandle so they can be pretty sure of where a storm is going before they pack up and move on down I-10 to their second home!
Nate may not be a hurricane yet, but he did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
Quoting Patrap:
Stealing my HTML codes in quotes is not the best way to blog Rita.

It makes u look Lazy.

LOL


That last satellite image makes me feel like I'm watching Laugh In.
1004. Patrap
Quoting WetBankGuy:


That last satellite image makes me feel like I'm watching Laugh In.



Maybe the Flying Fickle Finger of Fate will point some other way this weekend
Nate has also begun a movement to the north or north-northeast.
mobiledave=troll =poof
Kinda of upset about nate right now. On the one hand we need the rain in texas. However, the GFS solution would have nate lingering offshore FAR long enough to become a signifcantly strong storm, and would have it approach so slowly that it would drench us with far more rain than we can handle prior to landfall resulting in compound flooding as well as a severe wind threat.


My point is this, if you live along the Texas coastline you should pay very close attention to Nate.



Here is the current GFS forecast that has me riled up
: Link
does anyone know where maria is going and what she is gonna be?
1009. Drakoen
Quoting Tropicaddict:


Mainly the bold. I don't understand most of the HH information.


The bold is the pressure.
Quoting RitaEvac:
wonder what kind of winds are on the beach on south side of Nate



This isnt too far off...
Sacrafice Island, just off Veracruz MX, 1900Z.

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 26.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.9 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.92 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 85.1 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 65.1 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.9 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Quoting 69Viking:


I beg to differ. I live in Fort Walton Beach(FWB) and during Katrina we had a lot of LA evacuees in town shortly before Katrina hit! Lots of LA folks have property in FWB and Destin, some even keep their boats here. Southern LA is on average about 4 hours from the FL Panhandle so they can be pretty sure of where a storm is going before they pack up and move on down I-10 to their second home!


Four hours? During an evacuation and Mississippi has closed 10-E to Louisiana? Maybe in a private plane. Yeah, I know some people go to their condos (dumb) or to take care of their boats (not dumb), but by the time there is a high certainly of landfall the drive time to the panhandle is (at least) double that, assuming MS doens't commandeer the Federal interstate for their own evacaution plan.

My current forecast for Tropical Storm Nate...This only shows steady strengthening:

INIT 08/2100Z 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 70 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 75 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 80 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 85 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 90 KT 100 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 95 KT 105 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 100 KT 115 MPH
Quoting MississippiWx:
Nate has also begun a movement to the north or north-northeast.
That's affirmative sir, even from birds eye view I can see that from the 3 satellite images I posted.
i been keenly watching forecast models for hurricanes for nearly 20 years, reading about them, doing my best without a phd in meteorology to decipher them. as someone with 'just' a BS degree, surely i cannot understand any of this, just as a uneducated farmer cannot possibly know what the weather is going to do tomorrow. but the one consistency i have seen is that the majority of these storms have moved more to the east then predicted. Rita was going to hit houston, but hit closer to louisiana border. Katrina was definitely going to hit New Orleans, then side swipes it to the east. on and on. tell your children to be a meteorologist or a climatologist. or an economist. there are several occupations out there where one can be wrong on a regular basis and yet still have a job.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Nate has also begun a movement to the north or north-northeast.

Yep.

Convection is beginning to wrap around the eastern semi circle, or at least trying too.
I think Maria is at least a depression if you look at the buoy to her west, ties into a circulation and the bp is fairly low and still falling. If Maria stays weak not a good scenario if it gets below Hispaniola and just east of Jamaica.I liked the Cat 1 scenario for parched Texas but Nate looks to be a big headache for the forecasters.
12z UKMET, 144 hours.

1020. Caner
Quoting TexasMariner:
Kinda of upset about nate right now. On the one hand we need the rain in texas. However, the GFS solution would have nate lingering offshore FAR long enough to become a signifcantly strong storm, and would have it approach so slowly that it would drench us with far more rain than we can handle prior to landfall resulting in compound flooding as well as a severe wind threat.


My point is this, if you live along the Texas coastline you should pay very close attention to Nate.



Here is the current GFS forecast that has me riled up
: Link


That's not the entirety of the 12z run on the GFS.

Can be found here, if the link works:

Link

That recurves it and sends it into LA.
Quoting spinningtop:
what is maria gonna do and hwere is it gonna go now?


Hell, I am so frustrated with these storms, I just say they all go out to sea so I don't have to think about em. They drive me crazy with the different scenarios every model run, damnit man. I hope they do go out to sea, but in all actuality, one is bound to hit the CONUS. Maybe Maria and Nate at this point. Anybody's guess
Maria is still a TS and deserves to stay a TS, given that the LLC is closed and is becoming better defined with an apparent spiral band to the south of the LLC wrapping around to the eastern side of the circulation, however shear and dry air are having an impact as well as the speed shear from the easterly trade winds.
will the nhc bump up nates wind speed at the 5pm and what will it be?
just watched the weather channel 4pm update and they say nate going into south mexico as a cat1 storm
1025. Patrap
TS Maria



Recon sames to be stuck in one spot on Google earth for quite sometime now, I still think they will find Maria more organized and stronger than what it appears on Satellite presentation, jmo.
GT nice post of the "Birds Eye View"; certainlty appears Nate will get pulled 1 of 2 ways, West or North-Northeast.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Nate has also begun a movement to the north or north-northeast.
South-southwest drift as per Recon.

Quoting spinningtop:
just watched the weather channel 4pm update and they say nate going into south mexico as a cat1 storm


They know best!! NOT
Maria being weak could spell trouble for the U.S.
Conditions should become more favorable the next couple of days.
1031. Caner
Quoting spinningtop:
just watched the weather channel 4pm update and they say nate going into south mexico as a cat1 storm


Did they offer a money back guarantee?
8^)
Quoting spinningtop:
just watched the weather channel 4pm update and they say nate going into south mexico as a cat1 storm


No they didn't...

Dare I say?


TROLL ALERT
: C1
Quoting Tazmanian:
wind shear seems too be droping all so it seem like the center have found this nic little ball of t-storm and it now under it so it looks like MARIA got dress a little



Haha have to find something positive in that picture. Worst looking storm in a long time
1034. Patrap
TS Maria

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



1035. gugi182
doesn't Tropical Storm Maria remind you of Tropical Storm Gaston and a coincidence that Gaston developed around this time last year. Maria is ON LIFE SUPPORT!!! and will go into CARDIAC ARREST shortly.
000
URNT12 KNHC 082009
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152011
A. 08/19:50:30Z
B. 19 deg 42 min N
092 deg 17 min W
C. NA
D. 46 kt
E. 050 deg 46 nm
F. 144 deg 59 kt
G. 050 deg 45 nm
H. EXTRAP 995 mb
I. 20 C / 476 m
J. 23 C / 477 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF300 0215A NATE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 82 KT SE QUAD 18:15:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
Quoting spinningtop:
does anyone know where maria is going and what she is gonna be?
Only mother nature knows and she dosnt want to answer my phone calls and text messages :( but maria does appear to be refireing lets see what happens if she get all her cylinders up and running
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My current forecast for Tropical Storm Nate...This only shows steady strengthening:

INIT 08/2100Z 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 100 KT 115 MPH


As it's travelling at 1 mph, don't you think it'll stir up some cold water to hinder its development? I think your prediction is way too strong.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
South-southwest drift as per Recon.



They missed the center on the first pass.
Quoting TexasMariner:
Kinda of upset about nate right now. On the one hand we need the rain in texas. However, the GFS solution would have nate lingering offshore FAR long enough to become a signifcantly strong storm, and would have it approach so slowly that it would drench us with far more rain than we can handle prior to landfall resulting in compound flooding as well as a severe wind threat.


My point is this, if you live along the Texas coastline you should pay very close attention to Nate.


Beggers can't be choosers. I'll take as much rain as Nate cares to throw at us along with whatever else comes with it. This drought has got to end!
Quoting Caner:


That's not the entirety of the 12z run on the GFS.

Can be found here, if the link works:

Link

That recurves it and sends it into LA.


That's way too long to be in the GOM, doubt that happens
Quoting Caner:


Did they offer a money back guarantee?
8^)
nope but i was just quoting what i heard them say
Quoting Caner:


That's not the entirety of the 12z run on the GFS.

Can be found here, if the link works:

Link

That recurves it and sends it into LA.


Audrey?
According to NECN (local news) the flood walls in Binghamton are leaking in spots, and splash over is happening.
1045. Patrap
82Kt on Nate may warrant a upgrade to Hurricane
1046. Caner
Quoting WetBankGuy:


Audrey?


Very similar.
Quoting gugi182:
doesn't Tropical Storm Maria remind you of Tropical Storm Gaston and a coincidence that Gaston developed around this time last year. Maria is ON LIFE SUPPORT!!! and will go into CARDIAC ARREST shortly.


Maria has reminded me of Gaston from the start. However, the model support now is much different. When Gaston formed, it had no models indicating that it would even develop.. but the NHC believed it would become a hurricane approaching the islands because the conditions where there. The models in the end proved right, and Gaston dissipated around the same time Maria is going to. That being said, this time the GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, GFDL are all predicting that Maria will become a hurricane in a few days, this is much different from Gaston in that sense. Right now though, this is pretty much just like Gaston and could open up into a wave soon. The recon found a very loose closed circulation, but it exists.
Quoting MississippiWx:
000
URNT12 KNHC 082009
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152011
A. 08/19:50:30Z
B. 19 deg 42 min N
092 deg 17 min W
C. NA
D. 46 kt
E. 050 deg 46 nm
F. 144 deg 59 kt
G. 050 deg 45 nm
H. EXTRAP 995 mb
I. 20 C / 476 m
J. 23 C / 477 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF300 0215A NATE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 82 KT SE QUAD 18:15:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
GOOD LORD! 82 knots on the SE side thats like cat 2 wind speed! what do you think the wind speed will be for nate at the 5pm?
1049. gugi182
Imagine a hurricane warning for the MOON!!!. Imagine the spaghetti models going crazy with Nate and send one of those spaghetti models to the moon that would be a first huh!!!!
1050. P451
Quoting stormpetrol:
Recon sames to be stuck in one spot on Google earth for quite sometime now, I still think they will find Maria more organized and stronger than what it appears on Satellite presentation, jmo.


Stuck on 1916z for me.

Nate stuck on 1925Z.

Just useless some times.


Quoting LoneStarWeather:


Beggers can't be choosers. I'll take as much rain as Nate cares to throw at us along with whatever else comes with it. This drought has got to end!


I know what you mean. Hopefully it doesn't have to be major, but we need something....
1052. Caner
Quoting RitaEvac:


That's way too long to be in the GOM, doubt that happens


They didn't consult me :P

But yeah, landfall at 8 days out seems extreme...

Still...

At this rate of speed...
82KTS flight level winds on recon reported,

that would be 75 on the surface. Doesn't have the look of a hurricane though at all, which leads me to believe that wind was recorded in either a downdraft associated with a collapsing thunderstorm, or a gust.
Most of the convection on Maria appears to be a mid level circulation she has run away from, seems to have been the case the last several years a these latitudes. But she has a large low level circulation that's why I don't think she will spin all the way down.
1055. jpsb
Quoting Tazmanian:



nate
Nate doesn't have the guts to come to Texas, he saw what happened to Don. Chicken just little his daddy Lee.
What is the sheer on Maria?
Nate Vortex (9/8 19:50:30Z): MSLP: 995mb (extrap); Inbound Flt. Lvl. Wind (Item F.): 59kts (~67.8mph); Max Flt. Wind (from Remarks): 82kts (~94.3mph)
1058. DFWjc
msnbc.com news services
updated 2 hours 40 minutes ago

LUBBOCK, Texas — Texas just finished the hottest June through August on record for any state in the U.S., weather officials said Thursday. National Weather Service meteorologist Victor Murphy told The Associated Press that Texas' 86.8 degree Fahrenheit average beat out Oklahoma's 85.2 degrees in 1934.

That Dust Bowl year is now third on the list for the three-month span, behind No. 2 Oklahoma's heat wave this June through August at 86.5 degrees. Both states and others in the nation's southern tier have baked in triple-digit heat this summer.

Louisiana's heat this June through August puts it in the fourth spot all-time, 84.5 degrees.
1059. Patrap
TS Nate

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Definitely organizing the Center with more banding evident



Flight-level winds support Hurricane Nate (after reduction).
Quoting DFWjc:
msnbc.com news services
updated 2 hours 40 minutes ago

LUBBOCK, Texas — Texas just finished the hottest June through August on record for any state in the U.S., weather officials said Thursday. National Weather Service meteorologist Victor Murphy told The Associated Press that Texas' 86.8 degree Fahrenheit average beat out Oklahoma's 85.2 degrees in 1934.

That Dust Bowl year is now third on the list for the three-month span, behind No. 2 Oklahoma's heat wave this June through August at 86.5 degrees. Both states and others in the nation's southern tier have baked in triple-digit heat this summer.

Louisiana's heat this June through August puts it in the fourth spot all-time, 84.5 degrees.
not true nevada and arizona have the hottest summers on record
Quoting panthan63:
i been keenly watching forecast models for hurricanes for nearly 20 years, reading about them, doing my best without a phd in meteorology to decipher them. as someone with 'just' a BS degree, surely i cannot understand any of this, just as a uneducated farmer cannot possibly know what the weather is going to do tomorrow. but the one consistency i have seen is that the majority of these storms have moved more to the east then predicted. Rita was going to hit houston, but hit closer to louisiana border. Katrina was definitely going to hit New Orleans, then side swipes it to the east. on and on. tell your children to be a meteorologist or a climatologist. or an economist. there are several occupations out there where one can be wrong on a regular basis and yet still have a job.


Katrina was also predicted to veer north into the Florida panhandle, then moved dramatically west. NHC predictions for track (but not intensity) continue to improve. The further south the storms are, the more likely they are to be wrong, but once a storm gets north of the islands, their track record is very good.
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
What is the sheer on Maria?
i believe its in the 10 20 kts range but decreasing
Had a gut check moment while driving to my son's school. I saw a plume of black smoke NW of Loop 820 (Tarrant County, TX). Didn't see it after I picked the kid up, but looked on radar once we got back to the house and saw signature riding the line btwn Tarrant and Parker Counties. I also saw on radar that the PK fire in Palo Pinto County is still burning.
Quoting WetBankGuy:


Four hours? During an evacuation and Mississippi has closed 10-E to Louisiana? Maybe in a private plane. Yeah, I know some people go to their condos (dumb) or to take care of their boats (not dumb), but by the time there is a high certainly of landfall the drive time to the panhandle is (at least) double that, assuming MS doens't commandeer the Federal interstate for their own evacaution plan.



These folks arrived 2 days before Katrina made landfall. Don't ask me how they did it I just know I talked to them at AJ's in Destin and seen their cars driving down Hwy 98 from the West just like I do when we have any holiday weekend during the summer.
Quoting Patrap:
TS Nate

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Definitely organizing the Center with more banding evident





Starting to crank
What's up with Recon & Maria, seems stuck in one spot on Google Earth now for the past 30 minutes or more?
I believe the 2 center fixes from recon are deceiving. It appears that they missed the center on the first pass as I doubt the pressure dropped 2mb in 30 minutes. The overall motion is to the NNE this afternoon.
Quoting WetBankGuy:


Four hours? During an evacuation and Mississippi has closed 10-E to Louisiana? Maybe in a private plane. Yeah, I know some people go to their condos (dumb) or to take care of their boats (not dumb), but by the time there is a high certainly of landfall the drive time to the panhandle is (at least) double that, assuming MS doens't commandeer the Federal interstate for their own evacaution plan.




We went to our Destin condo after Katrina. the people around there were great. It did take 8 or 9 hrs. There were a couple of other NOLA families as well. It wasn't dumb, we had a Cat 1 there but had no issues, never lost power. There were no hotels to be had for someone with multiple pets. It made sense and worked out for us.
Quoting Patrap:
82Kt on Nate may warrant a upgrade to Hurricane


Hush yo mouth. jk What is your GUT sayin on ole Nate?
1071. P451

how strong will the nhc show nate and maria at 5pm
There is a good chance if Maria stays together she might go to Florida. The whole of the Bahamas is now in the cone. Any thoughts?
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
how strong will the nhc show nate and maria at 5pm


Nate will probably be 70mph and Maria hanging on to TS strength at 40mph.
1075. Patrap
Quoting rushisaband:


Hush yo mouth. jk What is your GUT sayin on ole Nate?



One to watch thru the weekend from the Sabine to Destin
Quoting rushisaband:


Hush yo mouth. jk What is your GUT sayin on ole Nate?

His Gut just had shrimp creole...be careful what you ask for lol
Quoting shellyweathers:
There is a good chance if Maria stays together she might go to Florida. The whole of the Bahamas is now in the cone. Any thoughts?
never gonna happen they say florida with almost every storm when its 5 days out and it changes
1078. Patrap
..uuuuuuuurp

scuse me,,but it was really good fare.
Quoting spinningtop:
just watched the weather channel 4pm update and they say nate going into south mexico as a cat1 storm


Everyone quite dogging TWC. According to what I just read on their website this troll is lying and lying bad.

From the TWC

At this time, it is too early to determine if there will be any U.S. impacts from Nate.

This uncertainty is due to a large dip in the jet stream over the eastern half of the United States. If this jet stream dip is able to pull the system northward, Nate could head for the U.S. Gulf Coast. If the jet stream dip misses Nate, then the system would more than likely head more westward towards Mexico
Nate is ramping up very quickly, so my question is historically stronger storms tend to go what direction?
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE USVI AND PUERTO RICO
ON THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. AT 2 PM AST...THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22
MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TOMORROW. REGARDLESS DEVELOPMENT OR TRACK...SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS...
GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Nate, at least there is a possibility that it could nail Houston........6 days from now. Our met said expect anything.
Quoting yonzabam:


As it's travelling at 1 mph, don't you think it'll stir up some cold water to hinder its development? I think your prediction is way too strong.


Doubt it.
Quoting Patrap:
..uuuuuuuurp

scuse me,,but it was really good fare.



Nothing better than "Blogging and Burpin"
Quoting FLdewey:
Just a few more inches before it starts to really hurt.



Binghamton Flood wall downtown - 8 foot drop on the other side.
I have to say... That is a very impressively built flood wall.
Quoting Caner:
Someone contact the atheists.

Let them know their god has appeared in the BOC.

LOL, poor Texas.
Quoting IcemanMC:
Nate is ramping up very quickly, so my question is historically stronger storms tend to go what direction?


poleward...north..
1090. basti11
Quoting 69Viking:


Everyone quite dogging TWC. According to what I just read on their website this troll is lying and lying bad.

From the TWC

At this time, it is too early to determine if there will be any U.S. impacts from Nate.

This uncertainty is due to a large dip in the jet stream over the eastern half of the United States. If this jet stream dip is able to pull the system northward, Nate could head for the U.S. Gulf Coast. If the jet stream dip misses Nate, then the system would more than likely head more westward towards Mexico



you are in denial if you think that forecast by TWA is wrong...i think they have it right on MEXICO is the target and has always been the target...you guys that want to keep it going to the northern gulf are really streching it...you all are going to be so disappointed when JIM CANTORE ends up in mexico lmao
1091. P451
Just going to have to wait for official confirmation... as the majority of those 60kt+ barbs are flagged as rain contaminated surface readings. You can find a couple that aren't flagged but they are right next to a long string of flagged ones, so they are possibly contaminated as well given the high rain rates along with them.

60...65mph TS? 70 maybe?






Im agreeing with MississippiWX Nate-70mph, Maria-40mph,Katia 85mph
1093. DFWjc
Quoting AegirsGal:
Had a gut check moment while driving to my son's school. I saw a plume of black smoke NW of Loop 820 (Tarrant County, TX). Didn't see it after I picked the kid up, but looked on radar once we got back to the house and saw signature riding the line btwn Tarrant and Parker Counties. I also saw on radar that the PK fire in Palo Pinto County is still burning.


I don't see it now, and I'm in NRH, and at 11am i was at 30E/820N and didn't see it, must have been to far away from viewing...
A friend of mine works for a ship yard here on the MS coast and this is what THEIR forecast through TropicWatch...

Current Location: 19.7N/92.3W
Geographic Reference: 339 NM southeast of Tampico
Movement: Stationary or drifting slowly southward today
Max Winds: 60 kts gusting 75 kts
Organizational Trend: Steadily increasing in organization
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size/4 intensity)
Maximum Hurricane Severity Index: 17 out of a possible 50 points (8 size/9 intensity)
Forecast Track Confidence: Below average, based on poor model agreement in recent runs. However, model agreement is increasing.

Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have nudged the track southward a bit on this advisory. In addition, we're indicating more rapid strengthening based on the current recon data.

Our Forecast
After an overnight model run that took Nate just about everywhere along the Gulf Coast, the models have settled down significantly this afternoon. There is now good model consensus on a slow northward movement for a day or two, followed by a turn to the west and inland into Mexico near or south of Tampico on Monday. We agree with this model consensus. If Nate was going to get picked up by the trough across the south-central U.S. then it would have been moving northward today vs. the southward drift we've been observing.

A recon plane inside Nate has found some surprisingly high winds, considering Nate's rather poor appearance on satellite. Winds of 60 kts were found southeast of the center. We think that these strong winds may be at least partially due to some funneling along the coast of Mexico. However, as wind shear relaxes over Nate in the next few days, we expect the storm to steadily intensify. Our forecast takes Nate to a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 91 kts prior to reaching the coast of Mexico on Monday. Confidence in the intensity forecast is a little below average.

Expected Impacts on Land
Southern Mexico/Yucatan Peninsula: Squalls will continue through late Friday.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Bay of Campeche: Squalls will continue throughout the central and eastern Bay of Campeche through this weekend.
Tampico to Tuxpan, MX: Squalls will reach the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Tuxpan during the day on Sunday. Heavy squalls on Monday as Nate moves ashore.
North-Central Gulf Lease Areas: We do not expect any significant impact on the northwest Gulf lease areas. Deepwater locations off the lower Texas coast will experience an increasing southeasterly swell on Sunday and Monday, but heavy squalls should remain well to the south.

Our next advisory will be issued near 10pm CDT.

Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / David Piech
We may have to change Nate to Nasty but I agree he is the one to watch this weekend. Predicting that, he may dissaper in the next 24 hrs.
1096. Wariac
It seems there is no data of TS Maria coming from the HH.
Poll time:
What will Nate get to?
A.TS
B.Hurricane
C.Major Hurricane

What will Maria make it to?
A.TS
B.Hurricane
C.Major Hurricane

Where will our next storm most likely form?
A.The Atlantic
B.The Caribbean
C.The GOM
D.The BOC
E.Other
Quoting P451:
Just going to have to wait for official confirmation... as the majority of those 60kt+ barbs are flagged as rain contaminated surface readings. You can find a couple that aren't flagged but they are right next to a long string of flagged ones, so they are possibly contaminated as well given the high rain rates along with them.

60...65mph TS? 70 maybe?








70 mph.
1099. rb5kcid
Does anyone else find it comical that the models keep switching Nate from the US gulf coast to Mexico...and never even hint at Texas getting a landfall through any of it?
Quoting IcemanMC:
Nate is ramping up very quickly, so my question is historically stronger storms tend to go what direction?
If there is a weakness between the CONUS Ridge and the Subtropical Ridge stronger storms tend to find that weakness and move poleward to it, troughs are responsible for creating this weakness because they flow counterclockwise. However, if the two highs bridge closing that weakness, no matter the strength of the system it will continue moving west/wnw around the clockwise flow of the High.
Quoting 69Viking:


Everyone quite dogging TWC. According to what I just read on their website this troll is lying and lying bad.

From the TWC

At this time, it is too early to determine if there will be any U.S. impacts from Nate.

This uncertainty is due to a large dip in the jet stream over the eastern half of the United States. If this jet stream dip is able to pull the system northward, Nate could head for the U.S. Gulf Coast. If the jet stream dip misses Nate, then the system would more than likely head more westward towards Mexico


I look at it more like dogging NBC. I sure do miss Nicole Mitchell. She was part time at TWC and in the AF Reserves flying with the hurricane hunters. Very easy on the eyes too
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Poll time:
What will Nate get to?
A.TS
B.Hurricane
C.Major Hurricane

What will Maria make it to?
A.TS
B.Hurricane
C.Major Hurricane

Where will our next storm most likely form?
A.The Atlantic
B.The Caribbean
C.The GOM
D.The BOC
E.Other


C
B
A
Quoting P451:
Just going to have to wait for official confirmation... as the majority of those 60kt+ barbs are flagged as rain contaminated surface readings. You can find a couple that aren't flagged but they are right next to a long string of flagged ones, so they are possibly contaminated as well given the high rain rates along with them.

60...65mph TS? 70 maybe?








ATCF upped the intensity to 70mph. While it's not official, it's usually right on the money.
Quoting Patrap:



One to watch thru the weekend from the Sabine to Destin


I'm interested in how his pretty fast (not rapid yet) intensification is going to affect his eventual path.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Poll time:
What will Nate get to?
A.TS
B.Hurricane
C.Major Hurricane

What will Maria make it to?
A.TS
B.Hurricane
C.Major Hurricane

Where will our next storm most likely form?
A.The Atlantic
B.The Caribbean
C.The GOM
D.The BOC
E.Other




point less
nate should be the man on the block soon
TS.Maria's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 7Sept_6pmGMT and ending 8Sept_6pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 18mph(29k/h) on a heading of 273.8degrees(W)
TS.Maria was headed toward passing 6.8miles(10.9kilometres)north of St.Vincent(&theGrenadines) ~1day9hours from now

Copy&paste ngd, pmv, 13.2n43.1w-13.3n45.2w, 13.3n45.2w-13.2n47.3w, 13.2n47.3w-13.0n50.2w, 13.0n50.2w-13.1n51.8w, svd, 13.0n50.2w-13.48n61.166w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Been montering this blog since before Katrina. Used to chat with IndianRiverGuy about Camille. Everybody enjoys prognosticating what's up. Some are more qualified at it than others. My take...Que Sera Sera...was on Ms Coast for '47 hurricane, not named then, came across south Fl then to Ms and La., probably 15 foot surge in Ms. All information we had was from local radio station WGCM, commentator was "Snoops Shot"... a Mr. Berry, that a ship at sea reported a storm of hurricane strength was somewhere out there! Then we just waited for school to let out whenever and go to the beach when weather started to get worse. That was our warning. Experienced many events like that during the '50's. Most were TS after that til Betsy in the '60's til Camille. Then came Camille. Was in Camille and Katrina at the same exact local...water from Camille got soles of feet wet...water from Katrina was up to my nostriles, with me bobbing up and down on tippy toes, floating Mom on her foam rubber mattress. She was 91. Lost all pictures of her babies, mother and father and all else. Didn't drown though...but passed nine months later from stroke from shock. Believe it or not Steve Lyons, TWC, argued with me on his blog that surge of Katrina was not as bad as Camille, ...wet soles of feet in Camille and to my nostriles in Katrina in exactly the same local. I know better.
Enjoy reading what you all think is coming. Que Sera Sera.
TS Nate 70mph and 995mb pressure for the 5pm EST NHC update, IMO.
Quoting basti11:



you are in denial if you think that forecast by TWA is wrong...i think they have it right on MEXICO is the target and has always been the target...you guys that want to keep it going to the northern gulf are really streching it...you all are going to be so disappointed when JIM CANTORE ends up in mexico lmao


You've been saying that till your blue in the face, but haven't given a piece of evidence to support your 98% for sure forecast...Are you saying it just to say it?
1112. HCW
Quoting Tazmanian:




point less

Opinion.
Quoting cat6band:


poleward...north..
no it goes to the west pole, all storms go west, have you learned anything from Weather Underground?
Not a nice day here...
Quoting Allyson00:


 

Tropical Storm Nate Advisory #5
Valid: 04:00 PM CDT Thursday September 08, 2011

Tropical Storm Nate Track Chart, Advisory #5

 
Current Location: 19.7N/92.3W
Geographic Reference: 339 NM southeast of Tampico
Movement: Stationary or drifting slowly southward today
Max Winds: 60 kts gusting 75 kts
Organizational Trend: Steadily increasing in organization
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size/4 intensity)
Maximum Hurricane Severity Index: 17 out of a possible 50 points (8 size/9 intensity)
Forecast Track Confidence: Below average, based on poor model agreement in recent runs. However, model agreement is increasing.


Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have nudged the track southward a bit on this advisory. In addition, we're indicating more rapid strengthening based on the current recon data.


Our Forecast
After an overnight model run that took Nate just about everywhere along the Gulf Coast, the models have settled down significantly this afternoon. There is now good model consensus on a slow northward movement for a day or two, followed by a turn to the west and inland into Mexico near or south of Tampico on Monday. We agree with this model consensus. If Nate was going to get picked up by the trough across the south-central U.S. then it would have been moving northward today vs. the southward drift we've been observing.


A recon plane inside Nate has found some surprisingly high winds, considering Nate's rather poor appearance on satellite. Winds of 60 kts were found southeast of the center. We think that these strong winds may be at least partially due to some funneling along the coast of Mexico. However, as wind shear relaxes over Nate in the next few days, we expect the storm to steadily intensify. Our forecast takes Nate to a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 91 kts prior to reaching the coast of Mexico on Monday. Confidence in the intensity forecast is a little below average.


Expected Impacts on Land
Southern Mexico/Yucatan Peninsula: Squalls will continue through late Friday.


Expected Impacts Offshore
Bay of Campeche:
Squalls will continue throughout the central and eastern Bay of Campeche through this weekend.
Tampico to Tuxpan, MX: Squalls will reach the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Tuxpan during the day on Sunday. Heavy squalls on Monday as Nate moves ashore.
North-Central Gulf Lease Areas: We do not expect any significant impact on the northwest Gulf lease areas. Deepwater locations off the lower Texas coast will experience an increasing southeasterly swell on Sunday and Monday, but heavy squalls should remain well to the south.


Our next advisory will be issued near 10pm CDT.
© 2011 ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved.


Well, there about a day late.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Not a nice day here...


? Its looks sunny...
Quoting cat6band:


You've been saying that till your blue in the face, but haven't given a piece of evidence to support your 98% for sure forecast...Are you saying it just to say it?



Nothing to see here. Move on ........
1119. P451
Quoting Allyson00:


If Nate was going to get picked up by the trough across the south-central U.S. then it would have been moving northward today vs. the southward drift we've been observing.



Enjoy your writeups.

Just wanted to point that particular line out... seems to me that Nate has been drifting NE/NNE during the afternoon.





Quoting Methurricanes:
no it goes to the west pole, all storms go west, have you learned anything from Weather Underground?


lol...you have to be very SPECIFIC...on here...
Will Nate and Maria bring heavy rain to the East Coast next week?
1122. rb5kcid
Quoting Methurricanes:
no it goes to the west pole, all storms go west, have you learned anything from Weather Underground?


Except Lenny
Quoting Allyson00:


 

Tropical Storm Nate Advisory #5
Valid: 04:00 PM CDT Thursday September 08, 2011

Tropical Storm Nate Track Chart, Advisory #5

 
Current Location: 19.7N/92.3W
Geographic Reference: 339 NM southeast of Tampico
Movement: Stationary or drifting slowly southward today
Max Winds: 60 kts gusting 75 kts
Organizational Trend: Steadily increasing in organization
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size/4 intensity)
Maximum Hurricane Severity Index: 17 out of a possible 50 points (8 size/9 intensity)
Forecast Track Confidence: Below average, based on poor model agreement in recent runs. However, model agreement is increasing.


Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have nudged the track southward a bit on this advisory. In addition, we're indicating more rapid strengthening based on the current recon data.


Our Forecast
After an overnight model run that took Nate just about everywhere along the Gulf Coast, the models have settled down significantly this afternoon. There is now good model consensus on a slow northward movement for a day or two, followed by a turn to the west and inland into Mexico near or south of Tampico on Monday. We agree with this model consensus. If Nate was going to get picked up by the trough across the south-central U.S. then it would have been moving northward today vs. the southward drift we've been observing.


A recon plane inside Nate has found some surprisingly high winds, considering Nate's rather poor appearance on satellite. Winds of 60 kts were found southeast of the center. We think that these strong winds may be at least partially due to some funneling along the coast of Mexico. However, as wind shear relaxes over Nate in the next few days, we expect the storm to steadily intensify. Our forecast takes Nate to a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 91 kts prior to reaching the coast of Mexico on Monday. Confidence in the intensity forecast is a little below average.


Expected Impacts on Land
Southern Mexico/Yucatan Peninsula: Squalls will continue through late Friday.


Expected Impacts Offshore
Bay of Campeche:
Squalls will continue throughout the central and eastern Bay of Campeche through this weekend.
Tampico to Tuxpan, MX: Squalls will reach the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Tuxpan during the day on Sunday. Heavy squalls on Monday as Nate moves ashore.
North-Central Gulf Lease Areas: We do not expect any significant impact on the northwest Gulf lease areas. Deepwater locations off the lower Texas coast will experience an increasing southeasterly swell on Sunday and Monday, but heavy squalls should remain well to the south.


Our next advisory will be issued near 10pm CDT.
© 2011 ImpactWeather, Inc. All rights reserved.



Not listening to these people, had Lee going all the way down the TX coast to Brownsville from Lake Charles, so I don't think I'm buying this track either
NATE GETTING READT TO MAKE THE COMPLETE CIRCLE AND SLAM INTO SOUTH MEXICO
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


? Its looks sunny...

At my area? Yes. The rest of the island? No.
Quoting P451:


Enjoy your writeups.

Just wanted to point that particular line out... seems to me that Nate has been drifting NE/NNE during the afternoon.







I didn't say I agreed with it, I'm just relaying information I get. It's all quite confusing to me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


? Its looks sunny...
umm no definatley not sunny lol!!!! DISCUSSION...TUTT NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS INTERACTING
WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE...THEREFORE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...MODELS
GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT PWAT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 2.2 INCHES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TOMORROW...A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA BUT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

1128. P451
Quoting MississippiWx:


ATCF upped the intensity to 70mph. While it's not official, it's usually right on the money.


With every storm this year, we've seen the NHC decide to do something that went against ATCF, at least once.

Not saying they will or won't just putting it out there.

I'd be a little uneasy upgrading to 70mph when the highest reading I can find is a rain flagged 69mph surface extrapolation.

Yet, as we've seen with Lee's upgrade and winds, and Irene's winds, they haven't exactly been conservative as of late. Almost seemingly opting to be aggressive.

One single wind barb showing 90, rain flagged, with all other showing 80 or less? 90mph it is! lol.

1129. basti11
Quoting cat6band:


You've been saying that till your blue in the face, but haven't given a piece of evidence to support your 98% for sure forecast...Are you saying it just to say it?



im tired of giving nmy 2 reasons scroll up you will find them...i still have that 2% if it meanders down in the BOC it will move north...but 98% mexico gets a cat 2...
Quoting Methurricanes:
no it goes to the west pole, all storms go west, have you learned anything from Weather Underground?


huh, I don't know what that means, poleward means northward, equatorward means southward and westward means westward and eastward means eastward.
Quoting yonzabam:


As it's travelling at 1 mph, don't you think it'll stir up some cold water to hinder its development? I think your prediction is way too strong.


It will have quite-a-bit of churning to get any cold water to upwell. Further north Nate goes, the DEEPER the fuel.

you can read the full nws discusion on my blog
Quoting P451:


With every storm this year, we've seen the NHC decide to do something that went against ATCF, at least once.

Not saying they will or won't just putting it out there.

I'd be a little uneasy upgrading to 70mph when the highest reading I can find is a rain flagged 69mph surface extrapolation.

Yet, as we've seen with Lee's upgrade and winds, and Irene's winds, they haven't exactly been conservative as of late. Almost seemingly opting to be aggressive.

One single wind barb showing 90, rain flagged, with all other showing 80 or less? 90mph it is! lol.



I can tell you won't give up about Lee until next season.
Quoting DFWjc:


I don't see it now, and I'm in NRH, and at 11am i was at 30E/820N and didn't see it, must have been to far away from viewing...
when I looked at the radar 14:37 local time it shows up just south of Reno (which is about the same time I was driving on 820, kid gets released at 14:40) and is dealt with pretty quickly. PK shows up at 14:18, and really gives a good radar signature.
1135. Patrap


just notice the dry air weakining in the NW gulf shear looks favorable if nate takes both paths but in the northern gulf the shear is still 30 to 50 knots. if that doesnt decrease we will have a weakining storm at landfall but if it does decrease to 15 to 30 knots that could stop weakining by a little :P
1137. DFWjc
Quoting thedawnawakening3:


huh, I don't know what that means, poleward means northward, equatorward means southward and westward means westward and eastward means eastward.


then you haven't seen the WEST map....where all storms in the ATL always go west...LOL


1138. P451
Not much to go on out here...that's available for the public to see, anyway.




*note, tropical cyclone position only updated at advisory times. Wind reports are frequently updated.

Quoting ILwthrfan:


It will have to quit a bit of churning to get any cold water to upwell. Further north Nate goes, the DEEPER the fuel.

That's interesting, I wonder what gave Jim Cantore the idea that the BOC had some of the warmest waters in the GOM, when clearly this map begs to differ.
Quoting Patrap:




ewe! me no likie
Quoting rb5kcid:


Except Lenny


and 2008 CAT 3 OMAR LOL
1142. DFWjc
Quoting AegirsGal:
when I looked at the radar 14:37 local time it shows up just south of Reno (which is about the same time I was driving on 820, kid gets released at 14:40) and is dealt with pretty quickly. PK shows up at 14:18, and really gives a good radar signature.


I see it now, click on the wrong radar, my bad, that's cool to see that!! (tho not cool it's going on)
MARIA IS BORING. BORING!!!!!!
1144. basti11
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
just notice the dry air weakining in the NW gulf shear looks favorable if nate takes both paths but in the northern gulf the shear is still 30 to 50 knots. if that doesnt decrease we will have a weakining storm at landfall but if it does decrease to 15 to 30 knots that could stop weakining by a little :P



gee look at the conditions in the northern gulf NATE CAN NOT COME NORTH...
Quoting mobiledave:


I'm sorry but "every once in a while" and "time to time" fails to comfort those looking for accurate and relevant information.

With all do respect someone with a B.S. degree should not be listened to when it comes to forecasting.
While you certainly are entitled to your opinion, I think you are entirely wrong about this.

B.S. degrees in atmo science and/or meteorology don't fall out of Cracker Jack boxes. Look up the math and physics required for a B.S. at Texas A&M, for example. The amount of, and complexity of, math would embarrass most engineers and most any accountant.

Now, if you are basing this off of what some yahoo on a TV with a communications degree has to say or the attempted meteorology conducted by a promoted sportscaster, I can understand how you came about that mistaken notion.

Further, there are a number of amateurs in here that I, as a degree holding meteorologist, would not classify as novices. Some of them know very well what is going on in the atmosphere, can diagnose the relative strengths of synoptic features, how those features are going transform in the next few days, and can aptly build a coherent and well-reasoned track forecast for a TC.

(Aside: they seem to have much more spare time than I do...)

Now, your point about not taking a blog commenter's post as truthful and complete as the NHC's is an entirely valid one. Stick around for longer than the 2 days you have been around and you'll learn whom to listen to.

P.S. Please learn the difference between there / they're / their, then / than, two / too / to, bare / bear, brake / break, you're / your, do / due, etc.
1146. P451
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I can tell you won't give up about Lee until next season.


What's to give up on? The system was prematurely declared and _NEVER_ had _ANY_ confirmation of 60mph sustained surface winds.

Seems quite simple to me.

I quoted it as an example to show that the usually conservative NHC has been anything but recently. Irene was another good example. Lee was a terrific example.

If Nate is upgraded to the highest wind found in the storm, in the face of some good evidence of rain contaminated surface estimates, it just continues the idea that they have gone from conservative to aggressive with their advisories.

It's not a personal thing...only people on this blog have tried to make it seem that way.

1083. Caner 4:31 PM EDT on September 08, 2011
"Someone contact the atheists.

Let them know their god has appeared in the BOC".


By definition: Atheism is, in a broad sense, the rejection of belief in the existence of deities.[1] In a narrower sense, atheism is specifically the position that there are no deities.[2] Most inclusively, atheism is simply the absence of belief that any deities exist.[3] Atheism is contrasted with theism,[4][5] which in its most general form is the belief that at least one deity exists.
# 1124 .. Larry
# 1129 .. Moe

Do we have a Curly ?
Quoting basti11:



im tired of giving nmy 2 reasons scroll up you will find them...i still have that 2% if it meanders down in the BOC it will move north...but 98% mexico gets a cat 2...


I wonder if 98% of this blog has you on ignore!
1152. basti11
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's interesting, I wonder what gave Jim Cantore the idea that the BOC had some of the warmest waters in the GOM, when clearly this map begs to differ.




all you have to do is think back june 1961 HURRICANE AUDREY ...BLEW UP OVER THE BOC..its the curvature of the BOC that fuels the storms that develop there..
1153. Caner
Quoting WhoDat42:


I wonder if 98% of this blog has you on ignore!


I had been avoiding it, but he was the second to have made it.

It's a pretty exclusive club. Only 2 have been deemed worthy.
Quoting Methurricanes:
no it goes to the west pole, all storms go west, have you learned anything from Weather Underground?
***

Quoting thedawnawakening3 huh, I don't know what that means, poleward means northward, equatorward means southward and westward means westward and eastward means eastward.

***
Really? You don' get Methurricanes' joke?
Really?
.MARIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A LITTLE...
5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 8
Location: 13.2°N 52.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1006 m
1156. JamesSA
Quoting WhoDat42:


I wonder if 98% of this blog has you on ignore!


I have had him in ignore all day. I wish every other post was not somebody quoting him.
Quoting JamesSA:


I have had him in ignore all day. I wish every other post was not somebody quoting him.


+100000000000
Quoting P451:


What's to give up on? The system was prematurely declared and _NEVER_ had _ANY_ confirmation of 60mph sustained surface winds.

Seems quite simple to me.

I quoted it as an example to show that the usually conservative NHC has been anything but recently. Irene was another good example. Lee was a terrific example.

If Nate is upgraded to the highest wind found in the storm, in the face of some good evidence of rain contaminated surface estimates, it just continues the idea that they have gone from conservative to aggressive with their advisories.

It's not a personal thing...only people on this blog have tried to make it seem that way.

Well in destin FL on the beach I can tell you on monday there was 60 mph winds I was there.
.RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS NATE STRONGER...
4:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 8
Location: 19.7°N 92.3°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: SSE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
I'm betting 70 mph at next advisory and moving SE!
1161. Drakoen
Quoting atmoaggie:
While you certainly are entitled to your opinion, I think you are entirely wrong about this.

B.S. degrees in atmo science and/or meteorology don't fall out of Cracker Jack boxes. Look up the math and physics required for a B.S. at Texas A&M, for example. The amount of, and complexity of, math would embarrass most engineers and most any accountant.

Now, if you are basing this off of what some yahoo on a TV with a communications degree has to say or the attempted meteorology conducted by a promoted sportscaster, I can understand how you can about that mistaken notion.

Further, there are a number of amateurs in here that I, as a degree holding meteorologist, would not classify as novices. Some of them know very well what is going on in the atmosphere, can diagnose the relative strengths of synoptic features, how those features are going transform in the next few days, and can aptly build a coherent and well-reasoned track forecast for a TC.

(Aside: they seem to have much more spare time than I do...)


Show him the omega equation lol.

But seriously, Atmo, you are better than this. Stop responding to this troll.
1163. Caner
Quoting Patrap:
Police: Arkansas meteorologist found asleep in tub next to dead man


Maybe someone was "Tropically Depressed" ?


Depressed?

No.

Apparently, he had a *very* good time.
1164. DFWjc
Quoting WhoDat42:


I wonder if 98% of this blog has you on ignore!



+1
Quoting P451:


Enjoy your writeups.

Just wanted to point that particular line out... seems to me that Nate has been drifting NE/NNE during the afternoon.





it does appear that it is slowly starting to move north or nne a little now after being stationary for sometime
Quoting 69Viking:
I'm betting 70 mph at next advisory and moving SE!


You get a gold star!
Quoting Bretts9112:

Well in destin FL on the beach I can tell you on monday there was 60 mph winds I was there.


Not to mention all the trees it knocked down, Lee was a pretty good tropical storm!
Quoting thesituation:
When is the latest I should wait untill I put my shutters up for Nate? Im just outside of Teaxas City
I'd wait on the shutters, but disconnect your cable now.
Nate a 70mph 995 mb storm via NHC

Link

Quoting 69Viking:


Not to mention all the trees it knocked down, Lee was a pretty good tropical storm!

Yep here is some more damageLink
1171. Dakster
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'd wait on the shutters, but disconnect your cable now.


Roflmao
Quoting twincomanche:
Oh darn, another missed opportunity........however I have a certain bridge on the West coast with a nice view.


I think some city in Arizona bought that bridge,their brain musta got baked.
Quoting hurricanehanna:


You get a gold star!


Almost, I said SE and they said SSE. I am thinking he has turned more to the North or NE here just recently. Might have moved SSE for the past 3 hours but seems to have changed directions by the looks of it on visible satellite. Now we just have to wait another 3 hours to find out!
4:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 8
Location: 19.7°N 92.3°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: SSE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb

According to NHC
Quoting 69Viking:


Almost, I said SE and they said SSE. I am thinking he has turned more to the North or NE here just recently. Might have moved SSE for the past 3 hours but seems to have changed directions by the looks of it on visible satellite. Now we just have to wait another 3 hours to find out!


close, so close ;)
Quoting P451:


Enjoy your writeups.

Just wanted to point that particular line out... seems to me that Nate has been drifting NE/NNE during the afternoon.






P, wouldn't Nate *have* to go a little N or NNE as he strengthened and pushed off land, the way a swimmer pushes off the wall? And wouldn't running into the E Yucatan ricochet him a little further back W?
Nate now forecast to become a Category 2 hurricane...I'm still a little less conservative with the intensity.

The long term motion may be southeast, but the short term motion is most likely NE.
Quoting Drakoen:


Show him the omega equation lol.

But seriously, Atmo, you are better than this. Stop responding to this troll.
Yeah. Had 5 minutes to waste...could have done something more fun with it. Will next time...
;-)

L8R.
NHC believes Maria could be an open wave right now, but they think it will make a run for hurricane status at the end of the forecast period as it heads towards the USA. Very possible.
there was a storm about 10 yrs ago that just sat there in the boc spinning for about a wk eventually moving sw into mexico it was a flood zone down in that area of the world
Quoting spinningtop:
not true nevada and arizona have the hottest summers on record


Overall been nice and cool in Soo Cal this summer :)
000
FXUS64 KHGX 082013
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS WILL PERSIST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IN BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES...AND THIS SHOULD
BRING OUR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS UP A BIT TO HELP THOSE
BATTLING THE WILDFIRES. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS
STILL LOOK GOOD. ALL EYES THEN TURN SOUTH TOWARD STRENGTHENING TROPICAL
STORM NATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE SEE WHICH WAY HE DECIDES
TO GO. BASED ON THE CURRENT NHC/HPC TRACK...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ONLY A MARINE IMPACT ON THE AREA AND NO DROUGHT RELIEF FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OF COURSE...ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK TO THE NORTH AND/OR UNEXPECTED
GROWTH/RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD HAVE A LARGER INFLUENCE ON OUR
AREA...SO STAY TUNED.

AND FOR MORE GREAT NEWS ON THE DROUGHT...CPC HAS ISSUED A LA NINA WATCH.
THIS IS MORE BAD NEWS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SINCE IN GENERAL THE LA NINA
PATTERN FAVORS A DRIER THAN NORMAL FALL/WINTER/SPRING SEASON.
42
&&

Hope Nate does something here at least cause it looks like an even drier winter season.
Quoting miguel617:
Those of you that board up your windows, how exactly do you do that without messing up the outside of your homes with the nails and/or screws? Do you go back and caulk up the holes later. My home is stucco so I am not sure how to do it.


Cut to fit over the window & frame. Drill & screw it into the metal or wood window frame. Then mark them so you know which window it fits the holes to & which side is outside. Leaves little holes in the window frame that aren't to bad to fill with something like caulk. Mark & keep it all & the next time you board up goes fast. (Record time here with 11 windows + 2 doors, one guy~ is 58mins)..

Probably not optimum for saving a house in Cat 4 winds but wouldn't 1/2 expect this house to make it through that anyways.

Now the family's hurricane house (where all the extended hunker) has anchors in the block so the plywood (& we went 1 inch with a reinforcing frame) covers the whole window hole so the block walls not the window frames take the brunt of the wind.
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 082013
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS WILL PERSIST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
END OF THE WEEK AND HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IN BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES...AND THIS SHOULD
BRING OUR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS UP A BIT TO HELP THOSE
BATTLING THE WILDFIRES. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS
STILL LOOK GOOD. ALL EYES THEN TURN SOUTH TOWARD STRENGTHENING TROPICAL
STORM NATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE SEE WHICH WAY HE DECIDES
TO GO. BASED ON THE CURRENT NHC/HPC TRACK...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ONLY A MARINE IMPACT ON THE AREA AND NO DROUGHT RELIEF FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OF COURSE...ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK TO THE NORTH AND/OR UNEXPECTED
GROWTH/RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD HAVE A LARGER INFLUENCE ON OUR
AREA...SO STAY TUNED.

AND FOR MORE GREAT NEWS ON THE DROUGHT...CPC HAS ISSUED A LA NINA WATCH.
THIS IS MORE BAD NEWS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SINCE IN GENERAL THE LA NINA
PATTERN FAVORS A DRIER THAN NORMAL FALL/WINTER/SPRING SEASON.
42
&&

Hope Nate does something here at least cause it looks like an even drier winter season.



nop

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: La Niña is back

La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.

NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”

Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.

Seasonal hurricane forecasters factored the potential return of La Niña into NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued in August, which called for an active hurricane season. With the development of tropical storm Nate this week, the number of tropical cyclones entered the predicted range of 14-19 named storms.

The strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa.

Re-emergence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (degree C) for the week centered on Aug. 31, 2011, indicate the re-emergence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Download here. (Credit: NOAA)

La Niña is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. During La Niña, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns. La Niña typically occurs every three-to-five years, and back-to-back episodes occur about 50 percent of the time. Current conditions reflect a re-development of the June 2010-May 2011 La Niña episode.

NOAA's National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.





Quoting LoneStarWeather:


Beggers can't be choosers. I'll take as much rain as Nate cares to throw at us along with whatever else comes with it. This drought has got to end!


You obviously don't live anywhere near the coast or have never been through a major hurricane event over your house to make this statement.

If it is the drought (which will break naturally eventually) or another IKE, I'll keep the drought for now.
I love the NHC track for Maria! It's slightly to the right of the previous one by the time she crosses the leewards........ SO WE SHOULD GET WEATHER FROM HER HERE IN THE N LEEWARDS. Rain is ALWAYS welcomed!
000
WTNT45 KNHC 082058
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NATE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
HAS REPORTED PEAK 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND BELIEVABLE
SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 60 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PLACE NATE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT NATE HAS MOVED SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 160/2 KT. THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. NATE WILL REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN IT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. AFTER
36-48 HOURS...THERE REMAINS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...
HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD. THE GFS IS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK MODELS MOVE NATE MORE WESTWARD TOWARD
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT
NOT NEARLY AS FAR WEST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...OUT OF RESPECT
FOR THE GFS AND THE EARLIER ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 19.7N 92.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.7N 92.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 20.2N 92.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 20.9N 92.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 21.6N 93.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 22.5N 94.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 23.0N 94.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 23.5N 95.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


A depression making such a sharp turn to the nw seems odd
1192. usa777
Quoting eyetoothtom1:
Been montering this blog since before Katrina. Used to chat with IndianRiverGuy about Camille. Everybody enjoys prognosticating what's up. Some are more qualified at it than others. My take...Que Sera Sera...was on Ms Coast for '47 hurricane, not named then, came across south Fl then to Ms and La., probably 15 foot surge in Ms. All information we had was from local radio station WGCM, commentator was "Snoops Shot"... a Mr. Berry, that a ship at sea reported a storm of hurricane strength was somewhere out there! Then we just waited for school to let out whenever and go to the beach when weather started to get worse. That was our warning. Experienced many events like that during the '50's. Most were TS after that til Betsy in the '60's til Camille. Then came Camille. Was in Camille and Katrina at the same exact local...water from Camille got soles of feet wet...water from Katrina was up to my nostriles, with me bobbing up and down on tippy toes, floating Mom on her foam rubber mattress. She was 91. Lost all pictures of her babies, mother and father and all else. Didn't drown though...but passed nine months later from stroke from shock. Believe it or not Steve Lyons, TWC, argued with me on his blog that surge of Katrina was not as bad as Camille, ...wet soles of feet in Camille and to my nostriles in Katrina in exactly the same local. I know better.
Enjoy reading what you all think is coming. Que Sera Sera.


What town were you in? I had the pleasure of riding out Katrina from Bay St Louis. I experienced the water up to nostril thing as well. At least until I found a nice tree to spend 6 hrs in.
Quoting MississippiWx:
The long term motion may be southeast, but the short term motion is most likely NE.


First 3 hours he went SE and now he's moving NE or at least that's what I'm seeing on the visible. I'm thinking with the pressure drop, strengthening and easing of the shear we should have a more tightly wrapped eye soon that will be easier to track.
1194. Dakster
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


WTF?
1195. P451
Quoting Bretts9112:

Well in destin FL on the beach I can tell you on monday there was 60 mph winds I was there.
Quoting Bretts9112:

Well in destin FL on the beach I can tell you on monday there was 60 mph winds I was there.



On Monday... Lee was inland over Louisiana as an extra-tropical depression with 35mph sustained winds.

Lee was rated on Saturday into Sunday as having 60mph sustained winds off the coast of Louisiana. Highest confirmed sustained winds on land were 40kt gusting 50kt in a short lived rain band that swung through NOLA early in the morning.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
WOW.
MARIA, MARIA, MARIA.... You have plenty of food with those WARM SSTs SO ENJOY IT AND DON'T WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE.
1198. P451
Quoting Tropicaddict:


I didn't say I agreed with it, I'm just relaying information I get. It's all quite confusing to me.


I could have sworn I replied to a post by Allyson00 ?

Afternoon all.

I'm starting to get used to the hatched white thingy over my head...


Quoting Dakster:


WTF?

IKR?
Katia looks better...wonder if she has a shot at 100mph before its all said and done?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


That's normal : distances are shorter at those very high lattitudes!
1203. P451
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Katia spread DOOM across the arctic!

That's really going to screw up the steering flow.

Quoting mobiledave:


My message was to those seeking immediate information like the lady that wanted to pick up her boat from Galveston.

I like reading this blog and have learned a lot about hurricanes in the process. But I reiterate that this is not a place that should be used as guidance for people trying to make immediate decisions.

By the way, I have an M.S. in Accountancy and will soon sit for the CPA exam. I would not call myself qualified to give anyone on here tax advice until I have a job doing so.



From a person with a degree in Accountancy and have sat once for the CPA, just never had to pursue it further due to great jobs, I can tell you that you cannot get/use your CPA until you have so many hours working in a related field. So.....how can you soon sit for the exam and not be able to give tax advice 'until you have a job doing so'? Just been a perpetual student and never worked in the field? Hmmmm. I have worked many years for CPA firms as well as for refineries in accounting and I think I know enough about taxes I could give some pretty answers to some tax questions.

Point is letters behind your name do not tell all. Book learning is great but life experiences count for a heck of a lot more. Try learning from some of these on this blog and you will be enriched.
Will nate have a chance to go to TX this time? they ned it but if it goes slow like this it may become a major hurricane if it did hit texas. GFS showing a little love for texas.
Quoting P451:


Maria spread DOOM across the arctic!

That's really going to screw up the steering flow.


It was Katia who spread the doom...lol
Quoting wxobsvps:
A depression making such a sharp turn to the nw seems odd

If you're right, and as a depression it does not make the sharp right turn, but a gradual turn, then it heads perhaps into Hispaniola and over Cuba as a weak system. And in best case scenario, gets shredded by the high terrain. Bad part of that of course, it could be a rain maker for Haiti. If it does not turn at all, whole other ball game.
Quoting P451:


Katia spread DOOM across the arctic!

That's really going to screw up the steering flow.

how
Quoting Caner:


Depressed?

No.

Apparently, he had a *very* good time.
so many untreated crazy people out there nowadays just look at this blog! boc spin could be your worst nightmare tomorrows friday!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon all.

I'm starting to get used to the hatched white thingy over my head...



3rd time I've been in the cone this year. lol
I'VE SEEN WEAK SYSTEMS MAKING SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NW!!!
Quoting SPLbeater:
Katia looks better...wonder if she has a shot at 100mph before its all said and done?
doubt it but nate does
1213. Caner
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
WOW.


It's just planar distortion from extrapolating a spherical map surface to a flat, 2 dimensional map.

happens on all flat maps of the globe.
Quoting Patrap:
Police: Arkansas meteorologist found asleep in tub next to dead man


Maybe someone was "Tropically Depressed" ?


You slay me! :)
ALSO DON'T FORGET MARIA COULD INTERACT WITH SOME OF THE LARGER ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LIKE MARTINIQUE DOMINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE... THAT CAN CHANGE THE TRACK LOCALLY!!!! IT HAPPENED WITH 1995 IRIS AND MARILYN..
1216. Caner
Quoting islander101010:
so many untreated crazy people out there nowadays just look at this blog! boc spin could be your worst nightmare tomorrows friday!


?

No, my worst nightmare involves a witch, a bunch of sexually depraved gnomes, and an insane Mohel with a tiny guillotine.

Can't speak as to the rest of the comment though...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I hope Levi is aware of this. LOL.
This also looks like to bring some rainy weather to us over the weekend...

I wouldn't rule out some decent blows up of convection as it interact with those islands, and strenghtens by that time!!! Models are good at many things, they are extremely useful to help predict things.. BUT they WILL NEVER REPLACE HUMAN SKILLS!!!!
Quoting Caner:


?
yea if your in the right front quadrant when nate makes landfall could be in for it
Quoting Clearwater1:

If you're right, and as a depression it does not make the sharp right turn, but a gradual turn, then it heads perhaps into Hispaniola and over Cuba as a weak system. And in best case scenario, gets shredded by the high terrain. Bad part of that of course, it could be a rain maker for Haiti. If it does not turn at all, whole other ball game.


Yeah Haiti has some pretty heavily deforested mountainous terrain, which results in terrible flash flooding.
Quoting Patrap:
Police: Arkansas meteorologist found asleep in tub next to dead man


Maybe someone was "Tropically Depressed" ?


That depression was found hanging out in warm waters with it's COC exposed. Despite the exposed COC, it's death toll is already at 1. Plenty of snow was also reported.
1223. Caner
Quoting islander101010:
yea if your in the right front quadrant when nate makes landfall could be in for it


Um... I could dream... I think that would be a little further off than tomorrow.

I have already been through the eyewall of: David, Hugo, Fran, Georges, Ivan, (twice), Katrina, Rita and Gustav... With a near misses on Andrew and Emily.

So whatever develops, i doubt Nate holds any horrors for me.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


lol.
1225. skook
Athens Pa


Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon all.

I'm starting to get used to the hatched white thingy over my head...




That just made me laugh! (Don't like that track at all)
Quoting frostynugs:


That depression was found hanging out in warm waters with it's COC exposed. Despite the exposed COC, it's death toll is already at 1.


Actually the story I heard was the warm waters had escaped and the basin was dry....reason unknown. Also this depression was a bit on the wobbly side having sucked in some bad stuff earlier, making it pretty weak but deadly still.
1228. Caner
New Blog...
1229. Dakster
Quoting seasntrees:


You slay me! :)


What do you suppose they were doing in that apartment?

Studying biology or testing their chemistry?
Quoting frostynugs:


That depression was found hanging out in warm waters with it's COC exposed. Despite the exposed COC, it's death toll is already at 1.


I'd heard it's water table was well below normal for what was expected? Fires had been raging throughout the night until it was 100% contained and choked.
Looks like we will be making up for lack of hurricanes so far.

- Irene
- Katia
- Nate? (likely)
- Maria? (possibly, once in the Bahamas)
Quoting Caner:
New Blog...


good!
New Blog!
Quoting rushisaband:


I look at it more like dogging NBC. I sure do miss Nicole Mitchell. She was part time at TWC and in the AF Reserves flying with the hurricane hunters. Very easy on the eyes too


Anyone know if Nicole Mitchell is pilot or co-pilot? Shes is a AFR Captain,and am guessing co-pilot?
Quoting 69Viking:


I'm interested in how his pretty fast (not rapid yet) intensification is going to affect his eventual path.


saw a loop,looked like Nate took a ne jog,from s or se earlier today
Maria building heavy thunderstorms on north and NE sides, mayve a little intensification likely. doubt she will weaken beyond TS, but hey everything possible...