Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones


Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 221529

Tropical weather discussion                                    
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL                       
1605 UTC Tue Jul 22 2014

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32n...east of 140w. The following information is 
based on satellite observations...radar...and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

....special features...
a 1008 mb low pres is centered near 10n119w moving WNW 10-15 kt. 
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection from 8n-11n 
between 116w-119w. Some gradual development of the low is 
possible over the next few days...with a medium chance of 
developing into a tropical cyclone.

...Tropical waves...                                      
tropical wave extends from 7n95w to over Mexico 21n93w moving W 
15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection from 6n-12n 
between 92w-96w. 

Tropical wave from 10n-18n along 123w moving W 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong from 10n-16n between 120w-123w. 

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...            
monsoon trough from 8n83w to 9n92w. ITCZ from 9n92w to 1008 mb 
low pres 10n119w to 1009 mb low 9n134w. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection from 6n-12n between 91w-97w and from 10n-15n 
between 103w-107w and within 180 nm S of axis from 127w-140w. 

a broad upper level trough is across the NW portion of the 
discussion area...with axis from 32n130w to 20n135w. A 90-95 kt 
jetstream E of the low from 28n125w to 32n123w. Upper level 
diffluent flow is enhancing convection with the surface low near 
10n119w and tropical wave along 93w mentioned above. A large 
anticyclonic circulation over northern Mexico near 31n107w with 
ridge SW across Baja California to 21n117w.

Gulf of papagayo...strong trade winds over the SW Caribbean will 
continue to allow Ely 20-25 kt winds into the Gulf of papagayo 
the next few days with seas to 8 ft today then spreading W on 
Wed with seas seas building to 10 ft Thu. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec...the pres gradient is expected to tighten 
across southern Mexico...and nly winds will increase to 20-25 kt 
through the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed then decrease on Thu.


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