Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones


Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 271538

Tropical weather discussion                                     
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL                        
1605 UTC Fri Feb 27 2015

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from  
the Equator to 32n...east of 140w. The following information is 
based on satellite observations...radar...and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC. 

...Special features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...pressure gradient associated 
with a ridge building southward across southern Mexico expected 
to induce brief period of minimal gale force winds tonight N of 
15n in the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 0000 UTC until 0900 UTC. By 
early Sat morning the pres gradient will relax somewhat with 20 
to 30 kt winds likely N of 13-14n between 95-96w in the region. 
Seas will build to 11-12 ft tonight then subside to 9-10 ft Sat.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

a surface trough extends from 05n83w to 03n90w to 04n96w... 
where the ITCZ becomes evident...then continues to 09n112w to 
08n140w. Scattered moderate convection associated with broad 
upper level divergence from 06n to 11n between 117w and 125w. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 60 nm S of 
ITCZ axis W of 137w.


Surface ridge extends se from 1030 mb high centered near 40n144w 
to 24n125w to 20n113w. High will remain nearly stationary the 
next few days with the primary ridge axis extending southward 
between 130w and 140w. Model guidance indicates the convergence 
zone will be diffuse W of 100w the next 1-2 days with little 
significant convective activity. A cold front is forecast to 
drift southward E of 135w Sat and sun...with a line of showers 
expected to develop from 30n117w to 27n130w Sat night. Frontal 
boundary will also induce fresh-strong SW winds in the northern 
Gulf of California at times this weekend. Moderate trade winds 
will dominate the region N of the convergence zone W of 110w 
through Mon.

Gulf of papagayo...nocturnal NE wind surges to 20-25 kt will 
resume tonight...with more significant sustained winds expected 
late Sun night through Mon night. 


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