axnt20 knhc 090604
Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 am EDT Fri Oct 09 2015
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections of
South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery...weather observations...radar...and meteorological
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 12n32w 07n34w 03n35w...
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation...
widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate and isolated
strong within 90 nm on either side of 15n27w 10n31w 07n36w.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 15n61w 12n62w 07n63w...
moving westward 20 to 25 knots during the last 24 hours.
Convective precipitation...scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 10n to 12n between 57w and 61w.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from eastern Puerto Rico
to 14n66w to 10n66w at the coast of Venezuela...moving westward
15 knots during the last 24 hours. The wave is moving through an
area of middle level to upper level southeasterly wind flow. The
southeasterly wind flow is part of a larger-scale area of a
32n54w 24n59w 16n60w ridge. Convective precipitation...isolated
moderate to locally strong from 16n to 20n between 60w and 67w.
The monsoon trough passes coastal sections of senegal near
15n17w to 13n24w and 09n32w. The ITCZ starts near 08n36w...and
it continues to 07n49w and 09n55w. Convective precipitation...
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from
08n to 10n between 11w and 16w. Isolated moderate elsewhere from
03n to 12n between 08w and 23w. Isolated moderate within 90 nm
on either side of 07n36w 08n40w 09n44w 11n50w. Rainshowers also
are possible elsewhere from 11n southward between 50w and 57w.
The Gulf of Mexico...
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
The anticyclonic wind flow is moving around a ridge that extends
from the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico...through the
central Gulf waters...beyond the coastal plains of the
U.S.A. Between the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Louisiana.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery within 180 nm of the U.S.A. Coast between 83w for
Florida and 97w for Mexico.
A surface ridge extends from the northern coastal waters of the
Gulf of Mexico...northeastward...to a 1020 mb northwestern South
Carolina high pressure center. One surface trough is along
26n83w 23n86w. A second surface trough is in the Yucatan
The Caribbean Sea...
Please refer to the section that is about tropical waves...for
more details about the two Caribbean Sea tropical waves.
A middle level to upper level trough passes through the southern
Bahamas...cutting right through Haiti...to a 15n73w cyclonic
circulation center. The trough continues from 15n73w into the
southwestern corner of the area...to northern Colombia near
10n74w. The cyclonic circulation center was forecast by the GFS
model at least 24 hours ago. A surface trough is along 82w/83w
from 09n in Panama to 17n. Convective precipitation...isolated
moderate in the Caribbean Sea from 14n to 20n between 70w and
80w...including across Hispaniola during the last 3 to 6 hours.
Isolated moderate has been active during the last 6 hours...and
it continues to be active now...from 18n southward between 80w
and 85w...including in eastern sections of Nicaragua.
The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
09/0000 UTC...according to The Pan American temperature and
precipitation tables...miatptpan/sxca01 knhc...are 0.34 in
Bermuda and 0.26 in Guadeloupe.
Please refer to the section that is about tropical waves for
more details about the two Caribbean Sea tropical waves. An
upper level north-to-south oriented trough cuts through Haiti.
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 15n73w...
forecast correctly by the GFS model 24 hours ago. Convective
precipitation...isolated moderate to strong within a 30 nm
radius of 20n73w in northwestern Haiti. Rainshowers are possible
in the southern coastal waters of Hispaniola.
Current conditions...in the Dominican Republic...rainshowers
with thunder are in Santo Domingo...and they were being observed
in La Romana as late as 09/0300 UTC. Few low level clouds are in
Punta Cana. Rainshowers with thunder are being reported in
Santiago and in Puerto Plata.
The GFS model forecast for 250 mb shows that the current 15n73w
cyclonic circulation center will be to the south of and move
onshore across Hispaniola during the next 30 hours or so. The
cyclonic circulation center eventually will open itself into a
trough for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS
model forecast for 500 mb shows that a northeasterly wind flow
will cover Hispaniola for the first 24 hours. An inverted trough
will cover Hispaniola for the second 24 hours. The GFS model for
700 mb shows that a few inverted troughs will cross Hispaniola
during the next 48 hours.
The Atlantic Ocean...
a middle level to upper level trough passes through 32n74w to
26n73w 22n72w...cutting right through Haiti...to 16n74w...into
northern Colombia. A cold front passes through 32n66w to 31n70w.
A surface trough continues from 31n70w to 27n78w...cutting
across South Florida near 26n81w...into the Gulf of Mexico near
25n86w and 22n92w. Convective precipitation...widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 270 nm to the north and
northwest of the line that passes through 32n58w 28n63w 26n70w
A middle level to upper level trough extends from 29n57w to
26n54w 22n53w and 18n52w. Convective precipitation...debris
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 19n to 28n
between 46w and 60w.
Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the area from 10n to 24n between 30w and 45w.
An Atlantic Ocean ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure
center that is near 38n16w...through 32n21w to 26n29w...through
a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 26n49w...to
26n69w...across the central Bahamas and central Cuba...into the
northwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea near 18n86w.
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