Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones


Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 312352

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central  
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections of 
South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite observations...radar...and meteorological 

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...Special feature...

A strong reinforcing cold front is forecast to be over the Gulf 
of Mexico on 01 Nov 0000 UTC from 30n86w to 28n90w to 29n96w.  
Frequent gusts to 35 kt are forecast N of front. The gale is 
forecast to last until 02 Nov 0000 UTC. 

A strong reinforcing cold front is forecast to be over the 
western Atlantic on 01 Nov 1200 UTC from 31n79w to 27.5n80.5w 
moving ESE. A gale is forecast to be N of 27n on either side of 
the front. The gale is forecast to last until 02 Nov 1200 UTC. 

...Tropical waves...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Atlantic just E of 
Barbados with axis extending from 18n55w to 10n58w...moving W at 
15 kt. Abundant moisture is in the environment of this wave. 
Isolated moderate convection is from 14n-17n between 52w-58w.  

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean S of 
Jamaica with axis extending from 18n78w to 10n78w...moving W at 
10 kt. A moist environment continues around this wave. Isolated 
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...The ITCZ/the monsoon trough...                                

the monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E tropical 
Atlantic near 11n15w and continues to 8n19w. The ITCZ begins 
near 8n19w and continues to 6n50w to 9n56w. Isolated moderate 
convection is off the coast of west Africa from 3n-9n between 
11w-25w. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is   
from 9n-12n between 26w-32w. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is from from 7n-10n between 34w-50w. 


Gulf of Mexico... 

As of 2100 UTC... a cold front extends from just S of West Palm 
Beach Florida at 27n80w to the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula  
at 21n90w to the SW Gulf at 21n96w. Scattered showers are within 
120 nm S of front W of the Yucatan Channel at 85w. 15 kt 
northerly winds are N of the front. In the upper 
upper level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 87w 
supporting the cold front. Expect in 12 hours for the cold front 
to extend from W Atlantic to the NW Caribbean Sea. A reinforcing 
cold front will enter the Gulf late tonight with stronger winds 
and cooler temperatures.

Caribbean Sea...                                              

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean Sea. See above. 
Scattered showers are inland over Central America from S 
Nicaragua to Guatemala. A monsoon trough is producing scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection over the SW Caribbean... 
Panama...and Costa Rica S of 11n. In the upper levels... an 
upper level ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 72w.  
Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue 
to move W...and for additional convection to advect over the 
Windward Islands due to another approaching tropical wave. 


Presently isolated moderate convection is over Hispaniola. 
Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to prevail 
for the next 24 hours due to prefrontal activity.

Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31n75w to West Palm 
Beach Florida. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.  
A 1009 mb low is centered N of the Virgin Islands near 23n65w. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 23n-26n between 60w-
63w. A large 1030 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic 
near 37n34w. Of note in the upper upper level low is 
centered near 24n61w with diffluence E of the center enhancing 
showers from 22n-30n between 50w-60w. Another upper level low is 
centered over the tropics near 18n36w also enhancing showers E 
of the center. Expect a reinforcing cold front to be over the W 
Atlantic on 01 Nov 1200 UTC.

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