Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 090600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans 090600z-100600zfeb2016//
rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 
16.2s 156.9e is now located near 16.3s 155.0e, approximately 723 nm 
west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Animated multispectral 
satellite imagery depicts a slowly consolidating low-level 
circulation center with persistent deep convection wrapping into the 
system. A 090439z SSMI 37 ghz image reveals curved convective 
banding along the northern and southern peripheries. Recent 
scatterometry data show a defined center, in good agreement with the 
analyzed position, with 15 to 20 knots along the northern periphery 
and 20 to 25 knots to the southwest. Upper level analysis indicates 
a favorable environment with light-moderate (15 to 20 knots) 
vertical wind shear and good dual channel outflow. Global models are 
in good agreement on the development of this system over the next 24 
to 48 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 
25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1001 
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
      (2) the area of convection previously located near 9.4s 167.9e
is now located near 11.8s 168.2e, approximately 470 nm east-
southeast of Honiara, Solomon Islands. Animated multispectral 
satellite imagery depicts a broad low-level circulation center 
(LLCC) with flaring deep convection wrapping into the system. A 
090437z ssmis 91 ghz image reveals fragmented convective banding 
around the periphery of the LLCC. Recent scatterometry data show 10 
to 15 knot winds along the southern periphery and 15 to 20 knot 
winds to the north. Upper level analysis indicates a favorable 
environment with light-moderate (10 to 20 knots) vertical wind shear 
and good outflow. Global models are in fair agreement on the gradual 
development of this system. Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated 
to be near 1002 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (3) no other suspect areas.
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