Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones


Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 282230
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/282230z-290600zjul2015//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection has persisted near 12.5n 167.8e,
approximately 225 nm north of kwajalein. Animated multispectral
satellite imagery depicts an area of persistent deep convection over
a consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC). Exposed cloud
lines to the southeast of the convection are wrapping into the cloud
system center; however, inflow appears weaker on the western
periphery. A 281538z SSMI 85ghz microwave image showed a broad, but
defined LLCC just east of the deepest convection with shallow
banding wrapping into the LLCC. An older ascat pass showed a weak,
broad circulation enhanced by a 15 to 20 knot westerly wind burst
along the Equator. The environment is marginally conducive for
development with a point source just west proving good outflow,
aided by a TUTT cell located to the northwest. Dry air to the west,
seen in water vapor imagery and the total precipitable water product,
will hinder faster development. Sea surface temperatures above 28
celsius and high ocean heat content are conducive for further
development. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to
20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: added area in para 1.B.(1).//

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