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Tropical Weather Discussion

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abpw10 pgtw 010600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/010600z-020600zsep2014//
rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 7.9n 
135.1e, is now located near 12.3n 131.7e, approximately 620 nm east 
of Manila, Philippines. Animated multispectral satellite imagery 
shows flaring convection along the monsoon trough where the broad 
and elongated low level circulation of the system lies. Upper level 
analysis indicates the system is south of the ridge axis in an area 
of low to moderate (10-20 knot) vertical wind shear (vws). However, 
the vws is offset by westward outflow that is providing ventilation 
to the flaring convection.  Numeric models develop this system as a 
broad monsoon depression with dual vortices generating possible 
warning criteria winds in 2 to 4 days. Maximum sustained surface 
winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is 
estimated to be near 1006 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//
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