Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 020600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/020600z-030600zjul2015//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/020151zjul2015//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/020153zjul2015//
ref/c/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/020152zjul2015//
narr/refs a, b and c are tropical cyclone warnings.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 020000z, tropical storm 09w (Chan-Hom) was located 
near 11.2n 152.5e maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 
55 knots gusting to 70 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 020300) for 
further details.
      (2) at 020000z, tropical depression 10w (ten) was located 
near 13.9n 129.7e maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 
25 knots gusting to 35 knots. See ref b (wtpn32 pgtw 020300) for 
further details.
      (3) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 13.3n 
129.9e, is now the subject of a tropical cyclone warning. See para. 
1.A.(2) for further details.
      (2) the area of convection previously located near 7.7n 
148.5e, has dissipated and is no longer suspect for the development 
of a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
      (3) the area of convection previously located near 6.9n 
176.3e, is now located near 7.1n 174.1e, approximately 215 nm east 
of Majuro, Marshall Islands. Animated multispectral satellite 
imagery shows a broad area of convection associated with a 
developing cyclone. Upper level analysis indicates a marginally 
favorable environment with low vertcal wind shear and good divergent 
outflow, however, a trough, as evident on water vapor imagery, is 
causing subsidence on the northern side and suppressing the 
convection. Global models indicate slow development over the next 48 
to 72 hours as the system tracks gradually westward. Maximum 
sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea 
level pressure is estimated to be near 1010 mb. In view of the 
marginal environment, the potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (4) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 020000z, tropical cyclone 25p (raquel) was located 
near 6.7s 159.7e maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 
45 knots gusting to 55 knots. See ref c (wtps31 pgtw 020300) for 
further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//
Nnnn

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