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Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 012330
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/012330z-020600zapr2015//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/011951zapr2015//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 011800z, typhoon 04w (Maysak) was located near 12.1n 
134.7e, approximately 814 nm east of Manila, Philippines, and had 
tracked west-northwestward at 10 knots over the past six hours. 
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 120 knots gusting 
to 145 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 012100) for further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 2.6n 
162.0e, is now located near 3.8n 160.7e, approximately 240 nm 
southeast of Pohnpei. Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts a 
broad area of turning that has improved and consolidated over the 
past 6 hours with deep convective banding on the eastern and western 
peripheries. A 012021z ssmis 37ghz partial pass microwave image 
shows the improved consolidation of the low level circulation center 
(LLCC) and the curved convective banding along the eastern 
periphery. A 012220z scatterometer pass shows 15 to 20 knot winds 
beginning to wrap into the LLCC from the eastern quadrant. Upper 
level environmental conditions have also improved with 10 to 20 knot 
vertical wind shear offset by excellent dual channel outflow as 
evident on water vapor imagery. Global models indicate development 
of this disturbance in the next 36 hours. Maximum sustained surface 
winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is 
estimated to be near 1007 mb. Due to the consolidation of this 
system, the potential for the development of a significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in para 1.B.(1) to 
medium.//
Nnnn

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Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog
By Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:22 PM EDT on April 01, 2015
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground
Category 4 Typhoon Maysak is headed west-northwest towards the Philippines, after pounding the islands of Yap State in Micronesia's Caroline Islands on Tuesday. At 2 pm EDT Wednesday the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTW [...]

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