Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 290600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/290600z-300600zjul2014//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/290151zjul2014//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 290000z, tropical storm 11w (Halong) was located near 
12.2n 148.3e, approximately 218 nm east-southeast of andersen AFB, 
and had tracked west-northwestward at 07 knots over the past six 
hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 45 knots 
gusting to 55 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 290300) for further 
details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 18.6n 
133.4e is now located near 18.9n 132.0e, approximately 505 nm south-
southeast of Okinawa. Animated multispectral satellite imagery 
depicts a monsoon depression with deep convection persisting along 
the periphery of a poorly-defined low-level circulation center 
(LLCC). A 290055z ascat image depicts an extensive region of 25 to 
35 knot southwesterly winds over the southern semi-Circle with 20 to 
25 knot winds over the northwest quadrant. The total precipitable 
water imagery shows a large (almost 700 nm in diameter), fairly 
symmetric envelope of deep moisture. Upper-level analysis reveals a 
strong anticyclone over the center with broad outflow. Vertical wind 
shear (vws) is low over the convection-free center, but increases to 
moderate to strong levels over the periphery. Consequently, the deep 
convection has cycled rapidly and has yet to consolidate as a 
typical tropical cyclone. Model guidance indicates that the monsoon 
depression will track northwestward and intensify. Maximum sustained 
surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level 
pressure is estimated to be near 996 mb. The potential for the 
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours remains medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//
Nnnn

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