Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones


Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 230600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/230600z-240600zsep2014//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/230151zsep2014//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/221851zsep2014//
narr/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning. Ref b is a tropical
/cyclone formation alert.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 230000z, tropical storm 16w (Fung-Wong) was located
near 30.4n 121.7e, approximately 439 nm west-southwestward of sasebo,
Japan, and had tracked northward at 09 knots over the past six hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 35 knots gusting to
45 knots. See ref a (wtpn32 pgtw 230300) for further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 12.4n 148.1e
is now located near 15.2n 147.5e, approximately 100 nm east of Saipan.
Animated multispectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a broad,
partially-exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) with fragmented
convective banding. Msi also shows an area of deep convection displaced
well east of the LLCC associated with surface troughing and strong
upper-level diffluence south of a TUTT cell positioned near 20n 150e.
Recent ascat imagery indicates a broad circulation with 20 to 25 knot
winds displaced over the eastern semi-Circle. Surface observations from
Guam and Saipan show sustained westerly to north-northwesterly winds of
about 10 knots with slp near 1004 mb. Upper-level analysis reveals a
marginally-favorable environment with light to moderate vertical wind
shear (10 to 20 knots) and fair diffluence associated with the small
TUTT cell to the northeast. Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 18 to 23 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated
to be near 1004 mb. The potential for the development of a significant
tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high. See ref
b (wtpn21 pgtw 221900) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//
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