Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 051800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/051800z-061800zmar2015//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/051351zmar2015//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
Rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 051200z, tropical cyclone 15s (fifteen) was located 
near 15.9s 42.1e, approximately 393 nm north-northeast of Europa 
island, and had tracked south-southwestward at 06 knots over the 
past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 35 
knots gusting to 45 knots. See ref a (wtxs31 pgtw 051500) for 
further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection has persisted near 15.5s 52.2e, 
approximately 360 nm northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Animated 
multispectral satellite imagery shows an exposed low level 
circulation center (LLCC) with convection sheared to the west. A 
051324z ssmis pass depicts an elongated LLCC with limited convection 
along the periphery. Upper level analysis indicates a marginal 
environment with moderate (20-25 knot) easterly vertical wind shear 
partially offset by good equatorward outflow. Global models indicate 
potential development of this system within the next 72-96 hours. 
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. 
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1010 mb. Because 
the LLCC is just beginning to consolidate and vertical wind shear is 
unfavorable, the potential for the development of a significant 
tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//
Nnnn

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