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Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 240630
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean
/reissued/240630z-241800zoct2014//
rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 12.6n 
62.9e, is now located near 12.1n 61.2e, approximately 700 nm south-
southeast of muscat, Oman. Animated infrared satellite imagery 
depicts a broad area of slowly organizing deep convection around a 
poorly defined low-level circulation center (LLCC), with possible 
multiple mesovortices. The 850mb vorticity signature and animation 
of total precipitable water also shows signs of improving 
organization. A 240359z ssmis microwave image reveals weak and 
fragmented formative banding broadly wrapping towards the LLCC. 
Upper-level analysis indicates a favorable upper level environment 
of moderate (10 to 20 knot) vertical wind shear offset by excellent 
outflow. Multiple global models are developing this disturbance into 
a broad tropical system affecting the northwest Arabian Sea over the 
next 48 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 
to 27 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 
mb. Due to the improvement in convective organization, the potential 
for the development of a significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in para 1.B.(1) to 
medium//
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