Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones


Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 171800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 10.7s 97.6e
is located near 11.7s 93.3e, approximately 210 nm west of Cocos
Island. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a
consolidating, broad low-level circulation center (LLCC) with
formative convective banding, primarily over the southern semi-
Circle. A 171339z ssmis image indicates deep convective banding
confined to the southeast quadrant of the LLCC and weak fragmented
banding elsewhere. A 171501z ascat image shows an elongated
circulation with 25 to 30 knot southeasterly winds displaced over
the southern semi-Circle and 15 to 20 knots over the northern semi-
Circle. Surface observations from Cocos Islands indicate sustained
northeasterly winds of 10 to 15 knots with a slp near 1009 mb. Upper-
level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with
diffluent easterly flow, good poleward outflow and weak to moderate,
easterly vertical wind shear. Dynamic models indicate slow
development as the system tracks southward. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is upgraded to medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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