Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones


Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 241800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 9.3s 
133.4e, is now located near 10.3s 134.9e, approximately 160 nm 
northwest of Gove, Australia. Animated infrared satellite imagery 
depicts flaring deep convection over a broad area associated with a 
loosely organized low level circulation center (LLCC). Upper level 
analysis reveals the environment is becoming increasingly less 
supportive of development with moderate to strong (20 to 30 knot) 
vertical wind shear hampering convection, and weak divergence. These 
factors along with land interaction from the nearby coast are 
hampering further consoliation of the LLCC. Additionally, numerical 
guidance has backed off from developing this system. Maximum 
sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea 
level pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. Due to the 
degradation of environmental conditions in the area, the potential 
for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the 
next 24 hours is downgraded to low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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