Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones


Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 222330
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection has persisted near 10.8n 68.1e, 
approximately 490 nm west of cochin, India. Animated infrared 
satellite imagery depicts a large area (about 800 nm in diameter) of 
intensive deep convection associated with an ill-defined low-level 
circulation center. A 221657z metop-b microwave image reveals weak 
and fragmented convective banding broadly wrapping towards the 
center. Upper-level analysis indicates the disturbance is located in 
a favorable environment of moderate (10 to 20 knot) vertical wind 
shear offset by excellent outflow, as evident in the water vapor 
imagery. Additionally, warm sea surface temperatures are conducive 
for development. Navgem and GFS models favor developing this system, 
affecting the northwest Arabian Sea in the extended Taus. Maximum 
sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea 
level pressure is estimated to be near 1007 mb. The potential for 
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: added area in para 1.B.(1)//

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