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Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 271800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/271800z-281800znov2014//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/270721znov2014//
ampn/ref a is tropical cyclone formation alert.//
Rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 13.8s 
64.7e, is now located near 14.2s 63.9e, approximately 630 nm 
northeast of La Reunion. Animated enhanced infrared satellite 
imagery depicts pulsating deep convection displaced west of a 
defined low-level circulation center (LLCC). A previous 270513z 
partial ascat pass revealed 30 to 35 knot winds wrapping into the 
LLCC. Upper-level analysis indicates the area remains in a marginal 
environment with moderate to strong (20 to 30 knots) easterly 
vertical wind shear offset by vigorous poleward outflow into a 
midlatitude shortwave trough. Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 30 to 35 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated 
to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high. 
See ref a (wtxs21 pgtw 270730) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//
Nnnn

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