Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 110000
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/101351zfeb2016//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 101200z, tropical cyclone 10s (ten) was located near
23.7s 52.0e, approximately 266 nm southwest of St Denis, and had
tracked southeastward at 08 knots over the past six hours. Maximum
sustained surface winds were estimated at 35 knots gusting to 45
knots. See ref a (wtxs31 pgtw 101500) for further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 10.6s
97.0e, is now located near 10.3s 95.0e, approximately 150 nm
northwest of Cocos Island. Recent animated enhanced infrared
satellite imagery shows a band of deep convection flaring along the
northern periphery of a strengthening low level circulation center
evident in a 101821z 89 ghz ssmis microwave image. Upper-level
analysis shows moderate (20 to 30 knots) of vertical wind shear
(vws) being offset by a strong poleward outflow channel. Recent
scatterometry data indicates the presence of 30 knot winds on the
western periphery.  Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at
25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near
1005 mb. Due to the improving structure the potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is upgraded to medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in para 2.B.(1) to

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By Dr. Jeff Masters,
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground