U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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acus02 kwns 251704 
swody2 
Storm Prediction Center ac 251702 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1202 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014 


Valid 261200z - 271200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur on Sunday night over 
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Small hail may occur with the strongest 
storms. 


... 
An upper ridge will shift eastward from the plains toward the Great Lakes 
with a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft spreading eastward across The 
Rockies and plains through the period. At the surface...a low 
pressure trough will extend from southern sk southeastward across the northern and 
Central Plains. Daytime heating beneath cool temperatures aloft 
beneath this trough should yield widely-spaced lightning strikes 
across central Idaho into northern Wyoming. 


Meanwhile...a surface high will remain over the southeastern U.S. With only 
modest low-level moisture return across the Southern Plains into the middle 
MS valley. Some of this northward flux of moisture will be responsible for 
elevated nocturnal storms from Minnesota into WI as a southwesterly low-level jet 
increases in advance of the upper trough. 


..MN into WI and Upper Michigan... 
Elevated instability will develop Sunday night mainly from eastern Minnesota 
across WI atop a cool/stable low-level air mass. The combination of 
lift from warm advection and height falls aloft should be sufficient 
for a rash of elevated storms. The cool temperature profiles surface and 
aloft both suggest small hail will be possible at the ground. 


.Jewell.. 10/25/2014