U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus02 kwns 221710 
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Storm Prediction Center ac 221709 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1209 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014 


Valid 231200z - 241200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible on 
Tuesday...particularly across parts of the Central Plains...southern 
rockies...and coastal southeast United States. A few of the storms 
across the Central High plains could be strong to severe. 


... 
A middle-upper trough over the central and northern plains will slowly move 
eastward to the upper Midwest and middle MO River Valley during the day 2 
period. Elsewhere in the mid-levels...a trough will persist over 
the Carolinas/Georgia while a powerful low and associated trough over the 
northestern Pacific will influence conditions over the Pacific northwest states. 


In the low levels...a Lee trough from the Central High plains northward into 
parts of the northern plains will serve as a focus for isolated to widely 
scattered storm activity. Thunderstorms will also be possible 
along/south of a remnant frontal zone across Florida and south Texas. 


..cntrl plains... 
Elevated scattered showers and storms are forecast Tuesday morning over 
parts of the area in association with low-level warm/moist advection 
in response to a slow-moving shortwave trough over the north-central 
states. Diabatic surface heating will serve to destabilize this 
area in wake of early day clouds/moist convection within a narrow 
moisture tongue extending northward into central Nebraska from western KS/OK. Model 
guidance suggests 500-1500 j/kg MLCAPE may develop within a narrow 
corridor by late afternoon. Low-level slys veering to 25 knots westerly 
flow through the base of the middle-level trough should result in 30-35 
knots effective shear. Isolated storms will probably develop by the 
21z-00z timeframe with a few storms potentially capable of a 
localized large hail/severe wind gust threat before weakening during 
the evening. 


.Smith.. 09/22/2014