U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Storm Prediction Center ac 301730 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1130 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015 


Valid 311200z - 011200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur Saturday from 
southern portions of Arizona and New Mexico into parts of Texas 
Saturday night. 


... 
Split upper-level flow will remain prevalent over the Continental U.S. Into 
Saturday. A shortwave trough in the northern stream will amplify/dig 
southeastward along the northern rockies...while in the southern 
stream...an upper low will move slowly southeastward over northwest 
Mexico/adjacent southwest states. 


..southern Arizona/nm to southwest/central Texas... 
Given the aforementioned southwest states/northwest Mexico upper 
low...glancing DPVA/upper jet exit region and a weak cape 
environment will influence shower/sporadic thunderstorm potential 
across southern portions of Arizona/nm during the day. 


Isolated thunderstorms may develop as far east as parts of 
southwest/central Texas Saturday night in association with increasing 
warm/moist advection and thermodynamic profiles that are at least 
marginally supportive of thunderstorm potential. 


.Guyer.. 01/30/2015