- Day Three
acus02 kwns 240432
Storm Prediction Center ac 240431
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014
Valid 251200z - 261200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
isolated strong...or perhaps one or two severe thunderstorms...may
develop across parts of the southeastern U.S. And along a dryline
over southwest Texas.
Southern rockies short-wave trough is expected to progress into the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley early Friday. Southern end of this deamplifying feature is
expected to influence convective development across the Carolinas
into southern Virginia...possibly as early as 17-18z as surface temperatures warm
into the early 70s. Boundary layer airmass is not expected to be
particularly unstable ahead of the short wave but SBCAPE could
approach 1000 j/kg across SC where fewer clouds and stronger heating
are expected. With deep layer shear on the order of 35kt any
convection that develops could attain organized structures capable
of generating gusty winds and marginally severe hail.
Short-wave ridging is expected to influence West Texas dryline Friday.
As Lee trough intensifies boundary layer moisture over deep south Texas
should begin returning nwwd along the Rio Grande Valley into the
Edwards Plateau of southwestern Texas. Strong heating along the dryline should
allow surface temperatures to warm into the middle-upper 80s which should
weaken inhibition by 22z. Latest thinking is any convection that
evolves along this boundary should prove very isolated...though
gusty winds or marginally severe hail could accompany any organized
storms between 22-03z.
Strong middle-level speed maximum is forecast to dig southeastward into the lower Colorado
River Basin by 26/12z. As cold trough moves inland lapse rates
should steepen enough for isolated thunderstorms...primarily during
afternoon when surface temperatures should enhance marginal instability.