U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 240432 
Storm Prediction Center ac 240431 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1131 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014 

Valid 251200z - 261200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

isolated strong...or perhaps one or two severe thunderstorms...may 
develop across parts of the southeastern U.S. And along a dryline 
over southwest Texas. 

..sern u... 

Southern rockies short-wave trough is expected to progress into the Ohio/Tennessee 
Valley early Friday. Southern end of this deamplifying feature is 
expected to influence convective development across the Carolinas 
into southern Virginia...possibly as early as 17-18z as surface temperatures warm 
into the early 70s. Boundary layer airmass is not expected to be 
particularly unstable ahead of the short wave but SBCAPE could 
approach 1000 j/kg across SC where fewer clouds and stronger heating 
are expected. With deep layer shear on the order of 35kt any 
convection that develops could attain organized structures capable 
of generating gusty winds and marginally severe hail. 

..southwest Texas... 

Short-wave ridging is expected to influence West Texas dryline Friday. 
As Lee trough intensifies boundary layer moisture over deep south Texas 
should begin returning nwwd along the Rio Grande Valley into the 
Edwards Plateau of southwestern Texas. Strong heating along the dryline should 
allow surface temperatures to warm into the middle-upper 80s which should 
weaken inhibition by 22z. Latest thinking is any convection that 
evolves along this boundary should prove very isolated...though 
gusty winds or marginally severe hail could accompany any organized 
storms between 22-03z. 

..wrn u... 

Strong middle-level speed maximum is forecast to dig southeastward into the lower Colorado 
River Basin by 26/12z. As cold trough moves inland lapse rates 
should steepen enough for isolated thunderstorms...primarily during 
afternoon when surface temperatures should enhance marginal instability. 

.Darrow.. 04/24/2014