U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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acus02 kwns 121646 
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Storm Prediction Center ac 121645 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1045 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016 


Valid 131200z - 141200z 


..no thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. 
Saturday through Saturday night. 


... 
The shallow leading edge of another significant cold intrusion into 
the eastern U.S. Appears likely to reach the central Florida 
Peninsula by 12z Saturday...before continuing southward through much 
of the remainder of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula 
by 12z Sunday. Its associated middle-level troughing and deep embedded 
closed low of Arctic origins are forecast to begin weakening and 
gradually turning east of North Atlantic coastal areas. In their 
wake...a general west northwesterly middle/upper flow is expected to 
prevail across much of the u... of upper ridging 
building toward the Canadian/U.S. Pacific coast. Within this 
regime...models do indicate that a fairly vigorous short wave 
impulse will dig east southeast of the northern rockies. 


Little change to the generally dry and/or stable conditions now 
prevalent across much of the U.S. Is expected through this period. 
However...mid-level cooling probably will contribute to steepening 
lapse rates and at least weak destabilization across the northern 
rockies region by Saturday afternoon. This may be accompanied by 
convective development...particularly where aided by coupled forcing 
for ascent associated with orography and the digging short wave 
impulse. It does not appear out of the question that thermodynamic 
profiles could become at least marginally conducive to charge 
separation...and lightning...near and southeast of the absaroka and 
Big Horn ranges of Montana/Wyoming...possibly into the Black Hills. 
At this time...though...probabilities still appear to remain below 
the minimum 10 percent threshold for a categorical thunderstorm 
area. 


.Kerr.. 02/12/2016 


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