- Day Three
acus02 kwns 251704
Storm Prediction Center ac 251702
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Valid 261200z - 271200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur on Sunday night over
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Small hail may occur with the strongest
An upper ridge will shift eastward from the plains toward the Great Lakes
with a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft spreading eastward across The
Rockies and plains through the period. At the surface...a low
pressure trough will extend from southern sk southeastward across the northern and
Central Plains. Daytime heating beneath cool temperatures aloft
beneath this trough should yield widely-spaced lightning strikes
across central Idaho into northern Wyoming.
Meanwhile...a surface high will remain over the southeastern U.S. With only
modest low-level moisture return across the Southern Plains into the middle
MS valley. Some of this northward flux of moisture will be responsible for
elevated nocturnal storms from Minnesota into WI as a southwesterly low-level jet
increases in advance of the upper trough.
..MN into WI and Upper Michigan...
Elevated instability will develop Sunday night mainly from eastern Minnesota
across WI atop a cool/stable low-level air mass. The combination of
lift from warm advection and height falls aloft should be sufficient
for a rash of elevated storms. The cool temperature profiles surface and
aloft both suggest small hail will be possible at the ground.