U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 011729 
Storm Prediction Center ac 011728 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1228 PM CDT Monday Sep 01 2014 

Valid 021200z - 031200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of New York to Kentucky... 

strong to isolated severe storms primarily producing damaging winds 
are possible from the northern Appalachians southwest to the 
middle-south on Tuesday. Marginally severe hail may occur on Tuesday 
night over parts of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. 

A shortwave impulse embedded within a broad modest-amplitude trough 
should eject across parts of the Midwest to lower Great Lakes during 
the first half of the period. In the wake of this impulse...a 
largely zonal pattern will envelop most of the Continental U.S.. at the 
surface...a weak cold front will shift east in tandem with the 
shortwave impulse. Trailing portion will be quasi-stationary near 
the Ozark Plateau and advance north as a warm front Tuesday night. 

..nrn Appalachians to the mid-south... 
Scattered convection should be ongoing at 12z/Tuesday from the Midwest 
to Ozark Plateau...likely displaced ahead of the cold front. 
While this activity is not expected to be strong...extensive clouds 
should limit downstream destabilization...especially from the Ohio 
Valley northward. Here middle/upper-level lapse rates will be poor...but a 
strong belt of 700-500 mb winds will overspread this region. This 
should support an increase in convective intensity as renewed 
development occurs along convective outflow/differential heating 
corridors by late morning into afternoon. This activity should 
organize into line segments/clusters that should yield at least 
isolated damaging winds...warranting an upgrade to a categorical 
risk designation. With southern/western extent...progressively weaker shear 
will limit the risk for organized storms. 

..cntrl/eastern Kansas to north OK... 
Low-level warm air advection will strengthen Tuesday night as a relatively diffuse warm 
front advances north. Isolated to scattered elevated convection should 
form along the periphery of a gradually expanding High Plains eml. 
Most guidance suggest westerlies within the cloud-bearing layer will 
slacken late in the period...probably only supporting multicells at 
best. But amidst moderate buoyancy...initial updrafts may produce 
marginally severe hail. 

.Grams.. 09/01/2014