- Day Three
acus02 kwns 130558
Storm Prediction Center ac 130557
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016
Valid 141200z - 151200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Sunday night into early
Monday morning...primarily from northeast Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley region.
General blocking pattern will persist Sunday with re-amplification
of synoptic upper trough over the central states...resulting from a
significant shortwave trough that will crest western U.S. Upper ridge
Saturday and continue southeastward into the Southern Plains and lower MS valley
Sunday afternoon and overnight. A weak surface low will develop through
northern Texas in response to this feature. By the end of the period a cold
front should extend from the low over northestern Texas southwestward through southwestern Texas
with a warm front stretching eastward from the low through northern la and southern
..sern OK...Eastern Texas through the lower MS valley area...
Low-level Theta-E advection will increase as a southwesterly low level jet develops
through the Southern Plains and lower MS valley...resulting in the northward
transport of modified cp air /mid-upper 50s f dewpoints/ into eastern Texas
and the lower MS valley. This will occur as plume of steeper lapse
rates with cold temperatures aloft expands eastward through the
region...resulting in at least marginal instability. Thunderstorm
potential should increase Sunday night from northestern Texas...southern Arkansas
and northern MS where isentropic ascent will be maximized as the southwesterly low level jet
interacts with east-west oriented baroclinic zone. Eastward progression of the
shortwave trough with evolving low-level confluent flow regime may
eventually contribute to development of showers and a few
thunderstorms farther south into the lower MS valley warm sector.
The thermodynamic environment is not expected to become sufficient
for a threat of severe storms.