U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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acus02 kwns 010425 
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Storm Prediction Center ac 010424 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1124 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014 


Valid 021200z - 031200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the Midwest to central Texas... 


... 
band of thunderstorms should form along cold front as it progresses 
across the plains into the Mississippi Valley. Damaging wind gusts 
are the primary severe threat with the strongest storms. 


..Midwest to central Texas... 


Low latitude short-wave trough will eject across the southern 
rockies/High Plains early in the period before ejecting rapidly northeastward 
into the lower Ohio Valley after midnight. Primary feature 
responsible for this rapid ejection is an intensifying speed maximum 
that will dig into the Central Plains by 03/12z. This secondary 
feature should aid deepening cyclone/sharpening frontal boundary 
over the upper Great Lakes late. 


Although frontal intensification is not expected until late in the 
period...convection is expected to develop along progressive 
boundary beginning fairly early in the period. Latest model 
guidance suggest ample boundary layer moisture will advance as far 
north as northern Illinois by late afternoon with precipitable water values at or above 1.5 inches. 
What little cinh is observed at 12z ahead of the front will diminish 
by 17-18z such that thunderstorms should readily develop along wind 
shift across eastern KS/OK. This activity should mature into a 
extensive squall line stretching from the middle MS valley...southwestward into 
northestern Texas by late afternoon. Greatest buoyancy is expected to reside 
from the Ozark Plateau southwestward into Texas and hail is most likely along 
this portion of the squall line. Mean southwesterly wind will be on the 
order of 30-35kt...more than adequate for progressive squall line 
that should advance toward the MS river during the evening hours. 
While deep layer shear is more than adequate for deep 
rotation...storm Mode favors linear development and damaging winds 
are the primary severe threat. 


.Darrow.. 10/01/2014