- Day Three
acus02 kwns 221710
Storm Prediction Center ac 221709
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Monday Sep 22 2014
Valid 231200z - 241200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible on
Tuesday...particularly across parts of the Central Plains...southern
rockies...and coastal southeast United States. A few of the storms
across the Central High plains could be strong to severe.
A middle-upper trough over the central and northern plains will slowly move
eastward to the upper Midwest and middle MO River Valley during the day 2
period. Elsewhere in the mid-levels...a trough will persist over
the Carolinas/Georgia while a powerful low and associated trough over the
northestern Pacific will influence conditions over the Pacific northwest states.
In the low levels...a Lee trough from the Central High plains northward into
parts of the northern plains will serve as a focus for isolated to widely
scattered storm activity. Thunderstorms will also be possible
along/south of a remnant frontal zone across Florida and south Texas.
Elevated scattered showers and storms are forecast Tuesday morning over
parts of the area in association with low-level warm/moist advection
in response to a slow-moving shortwave trough over the north-central
states. Diabatic surface heating will serve to destabilize this
area in wake of early day clouds/moist convection within a narrow
moisture tongue extending northward into central Nebraska from western KS/OK. Model
guidance suggests 500-1500 j/kg MLCAPE may develop within a narrow
corridor by late afternoon. Low-level slys veering to 25 knots westerly
flow through the base of the middle-level trough should result in 30-35
knots effective shear. Isolated storms will probably develop by the
21z-00z timeframe with a few storms potentially capable of a
localized large hail/severe wind gust threat before weakening during