U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 130558 
Storm Prediction Center ac 130557 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1157 PM CST Friday Feb 12 2016 

Valid 141200z - 151200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Sunday night into early 
Monday morning...primarily from northeast Texas into the lower 
Mississippi Valley region. 


General blocking pattern will persist Sunday with re-amplification 
of synoptic upper trough over the central states...resulting from a 
significant shortwave trough that will crest western U.S. Upper ridge 
Saturday and continue southeastward into the Southern Plains and lower MS valley 
Sunday afternoon and overnight. A weak surface low will develop through 
northern Texas in response to this feature. By the end of the period a cold 
front should extend from the low over northestern Texas southwestward through southwestern Texas 
with a warm front stretching eastward from the low through northern la and southern 

..sern OK...Eastern Texas through the lower MS valley area... 

Low-level Theta-E advection will increase as a southwesterly low level jet develops 
through the Southern Plains and lower MS valley...resulting in the northward 
transport of modified cp air /mid-upper 50s f dewpoints/ into eastern Texas 
and the lower MS valley. This will occur as plume of steeper lapse 
rates with cold temperatures aloft expands eastward through the 
region...resulting in at least marginal instability. Thunderstorm 
potential should increase Sunday night from northestern Texas...southern Arkansas 
and northern MS where isentropic ascent will be maximized as the southwesterly low level jet 
interacts with east-west oriented baroclinic zone. Eastward progression of the 
shortwave trough with evolving low-level confluent flow regime may 
eventually contribute to development of showers and a few 
thunderstorms farther south into the lower MS valley warm sector. 
The thermodynamic environment is not expected to become sufficient 
for a threat of severe storms. 

.Dial.. 02/13/2016