U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 051700 
Storm Prediction Center ac 051659 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1159 am CDT Monday Oct 05 2015 

Valid 061200z - 071200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from southern Arizona through southwestern nm and 
far West Texas... 

A few marginally severe thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds are 
possible during the afternoon from southern Arizona into 
southwestern New Mexico and far West Texas. Otherwise...isolated to 
scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday over the intermountain 
west...the southern and central rockies into the High Plains. 

..srn Arizona through southwestern nm and far West Texas... 

Center of cutoff upper low now situated over Southern California is forecast to 
drift slowly eastward into western Arizona by early Tuesday. Southerly low-middle level 
wind east of this feature will maintain low 50s f surface dewpoints and 
at least weak /500 j/kg/ MLCAPE is expected as the boundary layer 
warms. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage as the atmosphere 
destabilizes Tuesday afternoon. Belt of 40 knots southwesterly winds embedded 
within base of upper low circulation will contribute to 35-45 knots 
effective shear supportive of a few rotating updrafts capable of 
marginally severe hail and gusty winds. 

.Dial.. 10/05/2015