U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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acus02 kwns 240550 
swody2 
Storm Prediction Center ac 240549 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1149 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014 


Valid 251200z - 261200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central Florida... 


... 
thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Tuesday across the Florida 
Peninsula and possibly northeastward along the Atlantic coast into 
the eastern Carolinas. Isolated marginally severe thunderstorms will 
be possible across the central Florida Peninsula Tuesday afternoon. 


A longwave trough will move eastward across the Southern Plains and lower MO 
valley on Tuesday as surface high pressure remains dominant from the western 
Gulf Coast states northeastward into the Ohio Valley. A cold front is forecast 
to advance southward across the northern Florida Peninsula reaching. Thunderstorm 
development should take place along and south of the front Tuesday 
afternoon where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s 
and lower 70s f. The moist boundary layer should enable SBCAPE 
values to peak in the 1500 to 2000 j/kg range by the middle afternoon. 
This combined with about 30 knots of deep-layer shear and steep 
low-level lapse rates evident on forecast soundings...should be 
enough for isolated marginally severe wind gusts. Hail could also 
occur with the stronger multicell storms. 


.Broyles.. 11/24/2014