U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Today
Tomorrow
Day Three

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acus02 kwns 160537 
swody2 
Storm Prediction Center ac 160536 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1236 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014 


Valid 171200z - 181200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow over parts of the central 
and eastern Gulf Coast states...the Texas Big Country...and the 
Sierra Nevada mountains/western Great Basin. 


... 
An upper-level trough will become centered over the central 
Continental U.S. With an embedded shortwave impulse tracking across parts of 
the central/Southern Plains on Thursday afternoon. A surface front/inverted 
trough should be centered from the Edwards to Ozark plateaus. In the 
northwest...a shortwave trough will progress inland by Thursday evening. 


..cntrl/eastern Gulf Coast... 
Over central/southern Florida...another day of modification to a maritime air 
mass should aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Weak 
shear/marginal high-level lapse rates should mitigate organized 
severe potential. 


Thursday evening/night...guidance is quite insistent on developing a 
large swath of convection over the northern Gulf. This appears to be in 
response to pronounced upper-level divergence in the right-rear 
quadrant of a jet streak rounding the base of the central Continental U.S. 
Trough. Buoyancy will remain quite limited inland /outside of the Florida 
Peninsula/...but appears to warrant low thunderstorm probabilities along the 
coast. 


..TX Big Country... 
Given an antecedent cp air mass intrusion into the Gulf...modified 
moisture return will probably limit surface dew points to at or below lower 
50s along the aforementioned surface boundary on Thursday afternoon. 
Convection along this boundary should largely fall as low-topped 
showers. But it is plausible that a thunderstorm or two could form along the 
northwestern periphery of potentially meager buoyancy...north of progressively 
greater capping with southern extent. 


..Sierra Nevada mountains/northwestern Great Basin... 
Favorable timing of large-scale ascent with the peak of diurnal 
heating should Foster isolated high-based convection. Buoyancy will 
be meager but perhaps sufficient for sporadic lightning strikes 
amidst steep tropospheric lapse rates. 


.Grams.. 04/16/2014