U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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acus02 kwns 310627 
swody2 
Storm Prediction Center ac 310626 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1226 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015 


Valid 011200z - 021200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will occur from central to 
southern Texas through portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and 
southeastern states. 


... 


A split flow regime will persist Sunday with a northern stream trough 
expected to amplify through the Central Plains and continue into the 
middle MS and Tennessee valleys. Concurrently...a southern stream positive tilt 
trough will move slowly southeastward through the Baja California area and northern 
Mexico. The northern stream upper trough will be accompanied by a cold 
front that will advance southeastward through Texas and the southeastern states. By the 
end of the period this front should extend from a surface low over the 
middle-Atlantic area southwestward through the northern Gulf. 


..cntrl and southern Texas through southern portions of the Gulf Coast states... 




Modified cp air with upper 50s to 60f low-level dewpoints will 
advect inland through southeastern Texas into southern portions of the Gulf Coast 
states warm sector. However...modest 700-500 mb lapse rates and 
areas of widespread clouds suggest MLCAPE will likely remain below 
500 j/kg. A plume of subtropical moisture and a series of impulses 
embedded within belt of southwesterly winds aloft will promote development of 
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms along and just ahead of the 
southeastward advancing cold front. Other more shallow convection and 
possibly a few thunderstorms will occur farther east within a zone 
of pre-frontal convergence from the north central Gulf into the southeastern 
states. 


Winds aloft and vertical shear will strengthen /particularly from 
the lower MS valley into the southeastern U.S./ In association with the 
amplifying northern stream trough. A low-end threat for isolated 
marginally severe hail and a strong wind gust or two might 
evolve...mainly over southeastern Texas where slightly greater instability 
could develop if sufficient boundary layer warming occurs in wake of 
any early convection. Due to an expected marginal thermodynamic 
environment...overall threat remains too conditional to introduce 
severe probabilities at this time. 


.Dial.. 01/31/2015