U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 291702 
Storm Prediction Center ac 291701 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1201 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015 

Valid 301200z - 311200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across southern MS...Al...and the 
western Florida Panhandle... 

Isolated thunderstorms are likely across the Gulf Coast states as 
well as across New Mexico. A few storms could produce hail over 
southern Mississippi and Alabama. 

An upper trough will swing eastward toward the Atlantic coast with upper 
ridge axis across the western states. In between...a northwesterly flow regime 
will exist from the northern/Central Plains into the Gulf Coast states. 

With a surface high centered over the Bahamas...some low-level 
moisture return will occur across the western Gulf of Mexico northward into 
the Southern Plains/lower MS valley...with lower 60s f dewpoints from Texas 
to the central Gulf Coast. A very weak low pressure trough will form 
during the day across la/southern MS/southern Alabama...and may provide a focus for 
a few strong storms. 

..srn MS...Southern Alabama...western Florida Panhandle... 
strong heating will lead to an uncapped atmosphere and weak 
instability by afternoon. The northwesterly flow regime will favor cellular 
activity and cold temperatures aloft suggest hail. The main limiting 
factor to overall threat is lack of convergence and forcing for 
ascent. Therefore...only isolated storms are expected. However...a 
conditional threat of marginally severe hail exists given storms. 

.Jewell.. 03/29/2015