- Day Three
acus02 kwns 160537
Storm Prediction Center ac 160536
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014
Valid 171200z - 181200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow over parts of the central
and eastern Gulf Coast states...the Texas Big Country...and the
Sierra Nevada mountains/western Great Basin.
An upper-level trough will become centered over the central
Continental U.S. With an embedded shortwave impulse tracking across parts of
the central/Southern Plains on Thursday afternoon. A surface front/inverted
trough should be centered from the Edwards to Ozark plateaus. In the
northwest...a shortwave trough will progress inland by Thursday evening.
..cntrl/eastern Gulf Coast...
Over central/southern Florida...another day of modification to a maritime air
mass should aid in isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Weak
shear/marginal high-level lapse rates should mitigate organized
Thursday evening/night...guidance is quite insistent on developing a
large swath of convection over the northern Gulf. This appears to be in
response to pronounced upper-level divergence in the right-rear
quadrant of a jet streak rounding the base of the central Continental U.S.
Trough. Buoyancy will remain quite limited inland /outside of the Florida
Peninsula/...but appears to warrant low thunderstorm probabilities along the
..TX Big Country...
Given an antecedent cp air mass intrusion into the Gulf...modified
moisture return will probably limit surface dew points to at or below lower
50s along the aforementioned surface boundary on Thursday afternoon.
Convection along this boundary should largely fall as low-topped
showers. But it is plausible that a thunderstorm or two could form along the
northwestern periphery of potentially meager buoyancy...north of progressively
greater capping with southern extent.
..Sierra Nevada mountains/northwestern Great Basin...
Favorable timing of large-scale ascent with the peak of diurnal
heating should Foster isolated high-based convection. Buoyancy will
be meager but perhaps sufficient for sporadic lightning strikes
amidst steep tropospheric lapse rates.