- Day Three
acus02 kwns 051700
Storm Prediction Center ac 051659
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 am CDT Monday Oct 05 2015
Valid 061200z - 071200z
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from southern Arizona through southwestern nm and
far West Texas...
A few marginally severe thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds are
possible during the afternoon from southern Arizona into
southwestern New Mexico and far West Texas. Otherwise...isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday over the intermountain
west...the southern and central rockies into the High Plains.
..srn Arizona through southwestern nm and far West Texas...
Center of cutoff upper low now situated over Southern California is forecast to
drift slowly eastward into western Arizona by early Tuesday. Southerly low-middle level
wind east of this feature will maintain low 50s f surface dewpoints and
at least weak /500 j/kg/ MLCAPE is expected as the boundary layer
warms. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage as the atmosphere
destabilizes Tuesday afternoon. Belt of 40 knots southwesterly winds embedded
within base of upper low circulation will contribute to 35-45 knots
effective shear supportive of a few rotating updrafts capable of
marginally severe hail and gusty winds.