U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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000 
acus01 kwns 010027 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 010026 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0626 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015 


Valid 010100z - 011200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
isolated thunderstorms will persist over west central California 
mainly this evening. Thunderstorms over southern Florida should 
gradually diminish. 


..central California... 


The 00z sounding from Oakland California shows steep /7.5 c/km/ lapse rates 
and weak instability associated with cold air aloft /-28 c at 500 
mb/ within core of the upper low circulation. Showers and isolated 
thunderstorms should persist within this environment this evening 
but undergo a gradual decrease with onset of nocturnal cooling. 


..srn Florida... 


A few thunderstorms that developed in vicinity of stalled front and 
in association with sea breeze circulations will gradually diminish 
as the surface layer stabilizes. 


.Dial.. 03/01/2015 

Mesoscale Discussion


000 
acus11 kwns 271146 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 271145 
txz000-271345- 


Mesoscale discussion 0105 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0545 am CST Friday Feb 27 2015 


Areas affected...parts of the Texas S plains and Low Rolling Plains 


Concerning...heavy snow 


Valid 271145z - 271345z 


Summary...localized heavy snowfall rates of 1.0-1.5 inch per hour 
are possible over the next few hours across parts of the Texas S plains 
and Low Rolling Plains. 


Discussion...radar mosaic over the past few hours has shown the 
development of a mainly west to east oriented snow band from Lamb County 
eastward to King County Texas. Observations from the lbb vicinity show 
snowfall rates in the 1.0-1.5 inch per hour range accompanying the 
snow band. Water vapor imagery shows a vigorous shortwave trough 
moving across north-central nm early this morning and this feature will 
move into western portions of the Texas S plains/Panhandle regions over the 
next few hours. Large-scale ascent accompanying the middle-level 
disturbance coupled with frontogenesis in the 700 mb-h6 layer is being 
manifest into a localized heavy snow band over the Texas S plains. 
Model guidance shows the maxima in 700 mb-500 mb upward vertical velocity/S spreading eastward from Texas 
S plains into the Low Rolling Plains over the next 2 hours. As a 
result...expect a slight east-northeastward motion to the frontogenetic snow band 
through 1345z. 


.Smith.. 02/27/2015 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...oun...lub... 


Latitude...Lon 33969971 33539999 33820188 34360190 33969971