U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 290049 
Storm Prediction Center ac 290048 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0748 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014 

Valid 290100z - 291200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

a few strong to locally severe storms...with damaging winds as the 
primary hazard...will remain possible this evening across coastal 
portions of some southeast states and parts of Maine. 

..coastal SC southwestward to the central Gulf Coast... 
A cold front located from the NC Outer Banks arcing southwestward into southern 
Alabama/MS Monday evening will continue to progress southeastward and move into 
the Gulf Stream and the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Despite diurnal 
cooling...a few stronger storms may pose a localized severe risk for 
the next hour or two before the front and/or nocturnal stabilization 
in the boundary layer weaken storms. 

A middle level vorticity maximum...embedded within a larger-scale eastern 
U.S. Trough...will move from the Vermont/New Hampshire vicinity this evening to the 
mouth of the St. Lawrence seaway by dawn. 00z surface analysis 
places a low near the New Hampshire/Maine border and this feature will quickly 
move northward through Maine during the overnight hours. A seasonably 
moisture-rich airmass and strong forcing for ascent may continue to 
support a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. 

.Smith.. 07/29/2014 

Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 282337 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 282336 

Mesoscale discussion 1499 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0636 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014 

Areas affected...Carolina coastal plain into central/southern Georgia and 
the Florida Panhandle 

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453... 

Valid 282336z - 290100z 

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453 

Summary...although one or two strong to severe storms remain 
possible in and around the watch area during the next couple of 
hours...severe weather potential...in general appears to be 
decreasing. The need for a new watch is not anticipated. 

Discussion...localized enhancement of convergence within a zone 
along or just ahead of a southward advancing cold front continues to 
support scattered thunderstorm development across the South Carolina 
coastal plain through south central Georgia. This may be aided by 
weak to modest forcing for upward vertical motion and vertical shear 
on the southern periphery of amplified large-scale upper troughing 
progressing toward the Atlantic Seaboard. 

It may not be out of the question that one or two of these storms 
along the line...south of Macon Georgia eastward toward the Charleston SC 
area... could briefly intensify to severe levels through the 00-01z 
time frame. However...given the stabilization of the boundary 
layer...associated with both preceding convection and inland 
advancing sea breezes...across much of southern Georgia and the 
South Carolina coastal plain...the window of opportunity for this 
appears limited. Furthermore...weak low-level forcing seems to 
limit the potential for substantive upscale convective growth. 

.Kerr.. 07/28/2014 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 32248456 32278388 32378294 32518251 32538190 32528118 
33197981 33427917 33387887 32408040 32058160 32088203 
31858317 32068483 32248456