U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 070726 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0226 am CDT Tuesday Jul 07 2015 


Valid 091200z - 101200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
the risk of severe thunderstorms across the U.S. On Thursday 
currently appears negligible. 


... 
While its center continues to shift westward...inland across the 
southeastern states...subtropical ridging also appears likely to 
expand westward across the lower Rio Grande Valley and adjacent 
areas of northern Mexico...and northward through the southern and 
Central Plains. At the same time...models continue to suggest that 
a closed low...within the southern branch of split middle-latitude 
westerlies...will slowly accelerate inland of California coastal 
areas...northeastward across the Sierra Nevada into the Great 
Basin...as a strong upstream jet noses across the north central and 
northeastern Pacific. Downstream short wave ridging may build in 
phase with the subtropical ridging to the southeast...through much 
of the northern plains. 


..rockies westward... 
Models currently suggest only sufficient moisture for generally weak 
destabilization. At this time...this appears to preclude an 
appreciable risk for severe thunderstorms...but middle/upper forcing 
for large-scale ascent should still contribute to scattered to 
numerous thunderstorms on Thursday. 


..east of rockies... 
A lingering frontal zone extending from the middle Atlantic coast 
through parts of the Ohio and middle Mississippi valleys into the 
Central Plains is expected to provide one focus for scattered 
thunderstorm activity. Sea breezes along the central/eastern Gulf 
Coast likely will provide another...beneath the subtropical high. 


While the front will remain to the south of the stronger 
middle-latitude westerlies...a convectively enhanced perturbation 
emerging from the Southern Plains may be accompanied by a belt of 
modest deep layer westerly winds as it progresses around the 
periphery of the subtropical ridge...across the central Appalachians 
and northern middle Atlantic coastal areas. With Lower/Middle 
tropospheric lapse rates expected to remain weak beneath a warm 
middle-level environment...appreciable severe weather potential is 
still uncertain at the present time. 


Meanwhile...along the frontal zone across the plains...a 
strengthening nocturnal southerly low-level jet could support 
vigorous thunderstorm development across parts of eastern Kansas 
into western Missouri Thursday evening. But severe weather 
potential remains unclear at the present time due to the presence of 
a warm middle-level environment with only weak to modest middle-level 
lapse rates...and generally weak middle/upper flow. 


.Kerr.. 07/07/2015