U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 220828 
swody3 
Storm Prediction Center ac 220827 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0227 am CST Monday Dec 22 2014 


Valid 241200z - 251200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the Florida Peninsula through 
southeastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas... 


... 
A few strong to severe storms will be possible over the Florida 
Peninsula Wednesday. Primary threats will be damaging wind and a 
couple of tornadoes. A more marginal threat for a strong storm or 
two will exist from southeastern Georgia through the eastern 
Carolinas. Isolated damaging wind will be the main threat in these 
regions. 


... 


High-amplitude upper trough will advance through the eastern states on 
Wednesday. A strong upper jet will evolve within the eastern half of the 
trough. Attendant cyclone will lift northward through the Ohio Valley and 
into the Great Lakes while trailing cold front continues eastward and off 
the Atlantic Seaboard by late Wednesday night. 


... 


A strong low level jet will advect upper 60s f dewpoints through the Florida 
Peninsula...but weak middle-level lapse rates should limit MUCAPE to 
500 j/kg MLCAPE in warm sector. Numerous storms will likely be 
ongoing from the northestern Gulf into the southeastern states and northern Florida along the 
conveyor belt...and this activity will develop through pre-frontal 
warm sector and remainder of the Florida Peninsula. Strong winds aloft 
accompanying the upper trough will contribute to 45-50 knots effective 
shear and potential for organized storms with damaging wind the main 
threat. A slight risk may be needed in later updates if it begins to 
appear instability will be more than currently anticipated. 


..srn Georgia through the eastern Carolinas... 


Despite the influx of modified cp boundary-layer air promoted by a 
strong southerly low level jet...widespread pre-frontal rain and embedded convection 
will probably limit MUCAPE in this region to at or below 300 j/kg. Strong 
winds and vertical shear within convective layer will overspread the 
warm sector and contribute to the potential for organized low-topped 
convection. While isolated damaging wind cannot be ruled out...the 
thermodynamic environment will probably remain too limited for a 
more robust severe threat. 


.Dial.. 12/22/2014