U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 290732 
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Storm Prediction Center ac 290730 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0230 am CDT sun Mar 29 2015 


Valid 311200z - 011200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the S-central 
states... 


... 
Areas of strong to severe storms may develop Tuesday 
afternoon/evening across parts of the lower Rio Grande to Red River 
to lower Mississippi valleys. 


... 
The belt of strong middle-level westerlies will remain over the northeast and 
northwest during the period in association with a pair of shortwave 
troughs...while a ridge shifts from the northern High Plains to upper 
Midwest. Weak impulses embedded within a low-amplitude southern-stream 
middle-level trough should eject across parts of N-cntrl/NE Mexico and 
central/S Texas. Surface pattern will remain ill-defined across the south 
with a diffuse warm front slowly advancing north. A dryline should mix east 
across parts of West Texas and perhaps extreme west OK Tuesday afternoon. 


..S-central states... 
Boundary layer moisture should continue to gradually modify within 
the warm sector beneath an initially pervasive eml plume. Diabatic 
surface heating is prognosticated to be strong most areas and in 
conjunction with relatively cold middle-level temperatures...this setup 
should yield a broad moderately unstable air mass with weaker mlcin 
relative to prior days. Although spatial details of where convection 
should form east of the dryline appear unclear given subtle forcing for 
ascent...a few thunderstorm clusters should develop across West Texas and eastward over 
parts of the Red River to lower MS valleys. Deep-layer shear will be 
relatively modest especially where buoyancy should be greatest in vicinity of 
northwest Texas to central/southern OK. But largely 20-30 knots effective shear with 
steep tropospheric lapse rates would support multicells capable of 
producing isolated occurrences of severe hail/wind. 


.Grams.. 03/29/2015