- Day Three
acus03 kwns 020830
Storm Prediction Center ac 020828
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 am CST Monday Mar 02 2015
Valid 041200z - 051200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening from
parts of southeast Texas through much of Louisiana...central and
southern Mississippi...western and southwest Alabama...and extreme
The western extent of a large-scale trough will shift east toward
the upper MS valley/western Great Lakes region and the middle MS
valley/Ozarks region. Meanwhile...a trough...initially located over
northern Baja California/northwestern Sonora...is expected to dampen as it tracks east-northeastward into
a confluent flow regime across the Southern Plains. At 12z Wednesday...a
cold front should be extending from eastern New York/PA through the
central/southern Appalachians...then west-southwestward through northern la to northern or
central Texas. This front will continue to advance southward during day
3...moving off the Texas coast around 05/00z...and into the
north-central Gulf of Mexico by late Wednesday evening.
..parts of the northwestern-central Gulf Coast states...
Southerly low-level flow will maintain moistening across the warm sector
prior to frontal passage with initial storms tending to be mainly
elevated...especially across Texas. Surface heating across parts of
la/MS should result in the strongest instability. Effective bulk
shear will become sufficient for organized storms supporting a
severe weather threat. However...the combination of poor lapse
rates/weak instability and low-level winds tending to veer/weaken
with the approach of the cold front suggest the potential for severe
weather will remain less than 5 percent.