- Day Three
acus03 kwns 240731
Storm Prediction Center ac 240730
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 am CDT sun may 24 2015
Valid 261200z - 271200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the Lower/Middle MS
valley to Ohio/Tennessee valleys...
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the Southern Plains to the
Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the lower and middle
Mississippi River valley into parts of the Tennessee Valley and
Midwest on Tuesday. Other potentially severe thunderstorms could
occur across parts of the south-Central Plains.
..Lower/Middle MS valley to Ohio/Tennessee valleys...
It seems likely that ongoing showers/thunderstorms will be a factor
across the middle-south region and portions of the Lower/Middle MS
River Valley Tuesday morning...with destabilization/related severe
risk expected to the east of this early day activity. While there is
guidance variability...there is general consensus that a shortwave
trough and related middle/upper jet will spread northeastward over the
Midwest during the period with an increasingly moist air mass ahead
of the cold front. As storms increase/intensify into the
afternoon...at least weak to moderate buoyancy and a relatively
strong wind field /particularly Tennessee Valley northward/ could support
organized storm modes with damaging winds/hail and possibly a
tornado or two.
..south-Central Plains to Ozarks...
While overall large-scale forcing will be weak under the influence
of rising upper heights...at least a conditional severe risk may
exist across parts of the region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night. Moisture will return west-northwestward during the period and
a moderate to strongly unstable environment could be in place by
late afternoon/evening to the east of a dryline and near/southeast
of a frontal boundary across the south-Central Plains/lower MO
valley. Storms could develop near the dryline across the Southern
Plains...while storms potentially otherwise increase Tuesday night
across the Southern Plains/Ozarks vicinity with aid of increasing