- Day Three
acus03 kwns 220828
Storm Prediction Center ac 220827
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 am CST Monday Dec 22 2014
Valid 241200z - 251200z
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the Florida Peninsula through
southeastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas...
A few strong to severe storms will be possible over the Florida
Peninsula Wednesday. Primary threats will be damaging wind and a
couple of tornadoes. A more marginal threat for a strong storm or
two will exist from southeastern Georgia through the eastern
Carolinas. Isolated damaging wind will be the main threat in these
High-amplitude upper trough will advance through the eastern states on
Wednesday. A strong upper jet will evolve within the eastern half of the
trough. Attendant cyclone will lift northward through the Ohio Valley and
into the Great Lakes while trailing cold front continues eastward and off
the Atlantic Seaboard by late Wednesday night.
A strong low level jet will advect upper 60s f dewpoints through the Florida
Peninsula...but weak middle-level lapse rates should limit MUCAPE to
500 j/kg MLCAPE in warm sector. Numerous storms will likely be
ongoing from the northestern Gulf into the southeastern states and northern Florida along the
conveyor belt...and this activity will develop through pre-frontal
warm sector and remainder of the Florida Peninsula. Strong winds aloft
accompanying the upper trough will contribute to 45-50 knots effective
shear and potential for organized storms with damaging wind the main
threat. A slight risk may be needed in later updates if it begins to
appear instability will be more than currently anticipated.
..srn Georgia through the eastern Carolinas...
Despite the influx of modified cp boundary-layer air promoted by a
strong southerly low level jet...widespread pre-frontal rain and embedded convection
will probably limit MUCAPE in this region to at or below 300 j/kg. Strong
winds and vertical shear within convective layer will overspread the
warm sector and contribute to the potential for organized low-topped
convection. While isolated damaging wind cannot be ruled out...the
thermodynamic environment will probably remain too limited for a
more robust severe threat.