U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 020830 
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Storm Prediction Center ac 020828 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0228 am CST Monday Mar 02 2015 


Valid 041200z - 051200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening from 
parts of southeast Texas through much of Louisiana...central and 
southern Mississippi...western and southwest Alabama...and extreme 
western Florida. 


... 
The western extent of a large-scale trough will shift east toward 
the upper MS valley/western Great Lakes region and the middle MS 
valley/Ozarks region. Meanwhile...a trough...initially located over 
northern Baja California/northwestern Sonora...is expected to dampen as it tracks east-northeastward into 
a confluent flow regime across the Southern Plains. At 12z Wednesday...a 
cold front should be extending from eastern New York/PA through the 
central/southern Appalachians...then west-southwestward through northern la to northern or 
central Texas. This front will continue to advance southward during day 
3...moving off the Texas coast around 05/00z...and into the 
north-central Gulf of Mexico by late Wednesday evening. 


..parts of the northwestern-central Gulf Coast states... 
Southerly low-level flow will maintain moistening across the warm sector 
prior to frontal passage with initial storms tending to be mainly 
elevated...especially across Texas. Surface heating across parts of 
la/MS should result in the strongest instability. Effective bulk 
shear will become sufficient for organized storms supporting a 
severe weather threat. However...the combination of poor lapse 
rates/weak instability and low-level winds tending to veer/weaken 
with the approach of the cold front suggest the potential for severe 
weather will remain less than 5 percent. 


.Peters.. 03/02/2015