U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 240731 
Storm Prediction Center ac 240730 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0230 am CDT sun may 24 2015 

Valid 261200z - 271200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the Lower/Middle MS 
valley to Ohio/Tennessee valleys... 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the Southern Plains to the 
Appalachians vicinity... 

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the lower and middle 
Mississippi River valley into parts of the Tennessee Valley and 
Midwest on Tuesday. Other potentially severe thunderstorms could 
occur across parts of the south-Central Plains. 

..Lower/Middle MS valley to Ohio/Tennessee valleys... 
It seems likely that ongoing showers/thunderstorms will be a factor 
across the middle-south region and portions of the Lower/Middle MS 
River Valley Tuesday morning...with destabilization/related severe 
risk expected to the east of this early day activity. While there is 
guidance variability...there is general consensus that a shortwave 
trough and related middle/upper jet will spread northeastward over the 
Midwest during the period with an increasingly moist air mass ahead 
of the cold front. As storms increase/intensify into the 
afternoon...at least weak to moderate buoyancy and a relatively 
strong wind field /particularly Tennessee Valley northward/ could support 
organized storm modes with damaging winds/hail and possibly a 
tornado or two. 

..south-Central Plains to Ozarks... 
While overall large-scale forcing will be weak under the influence 
of rising upper heights...at least a conditional severe risk may 
exist across parts of the region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday 
night. Moisture will return west-northwestward during the period and 
a moderate to strongly unstable environment could be in place by 
late afternoon/evening to the east of a dryline and near/southeast 
of a frontal boundary across the south-Central Plains/lower MO 
valley. Storms could develop near the dryline across the Southern 
Plains...while storms potentially otherwise increase Tuesday night 
across the Southern Plains/Ozarks vicinity with aid of increasing 
warm advection. 

.Guyer.. 05/24/2015