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Storm Prediction Center ac 061558
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 am CST Monday Feb 06 2012
Valid 061630z - 071200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
..FL peninsula...
late morning composite satellite/surface analysis shows a weak area
of lower pressure/inverted trough migrating slowly eastward across the Florida
Straits vicinity. This aforementioned feature...and a residual
nearly stationary front extending from the western Gulf northeastward into the
northern part of the Florida Peninsula...will be the focus for showers and
isolated thunderstorms today across the Florida Peninsula. Pockets of heating
within a moist airmass /pw 1.75 inches per 12z S Florida radiosonde observations/ will
yield weak boundary layer destabilization /upwards of 250-1000 j/kg
MLCAPE/--perhaps enough to yield a strong wind gust. Forecast
soundings show weak low to middle tropospheric flow...negating
potential for organized thunderstorms and the inclusion of low severe
probabilities.
..Rio Grande Valley...
An upper trough over Texas/northern Mexico will slide eastward across the area
today as an upstream closed middle-level trough over the central rockies
weakens and moves into the High Plains. Meager instability on the
order of 100-200 j/kg MUCAPE /based near 600 mb/ may continue to
support the risk for a few thunderstorms this afternoon.
.Smith.. 02/06/2012
Mesoscale Discussion
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Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 042246
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Mesoscale discussion 0113
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CST Sat Feb 04 2012
Areas affected...far southeastern la...far southeastern MS...far southwestern Alabama
Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely
Valid 042246z - 050015z
A few storms may produce strong wind gusts into early evening across
far southeastern la...far southeastern MS...and far southwestern Alabama...with a weakening trend
expected after 01z. A ww is not needed.
A prefrontal squall line continues moving eastward around 20 knots...
currently extending from east of the Hattiesburg MS area southward toward
the east end of Lake Pontchartrain to near Grand Isle la. Low-level
ascent at the leading edge of convective outflow amidst a weakly
buoyant -- MLCAPE of 500 to 1000 j per kg -- and anomalously moist
troposphere -- precipitable water values of 180 to 190 percent of normal per blended
AMSU/SSMI data -- should allow storms to continue moving eastward along
the central Gulf Coast. Only modest amounts of deep-layer shear per
area vwp data will contribute to maintaining some convective
organization...with locally gusty winds owing to water loading
processes and weak/broad...line-embedded mesoscale circulations.
However...weak low-level flow per Mobile vwp data...the lack of
deep-layer forcing for ascent...the absence of greater
buoyancy...and the absence of a more organized cold pool will
greatly minimize any threat for severe wind gusts. After
01z...nocturnal stabilization will be associated with a reduction in
the threat for strong storms.
.Cohen.. 02/04/2012
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...mob...lix...
Latitude...Lon 30418780 30158816 29668875 29068918 29298980 30028962
30708926 31208880 31318826 31148779 30758771 30418780
