417
acus01 kwns 210059
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 210057
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT sun may 20 2012
Valid 210100z - 211200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
..Upper/Middle MS valley...
a broad zone of thunderstorms continues this evening along an axis
from Lake Michigan southward into the middle MS valley. Most of the
storms have decreased in intensity compared to earlier this
afternoon...but sufficient instability persists from Arkansas/Tennessee northward
for a risk of isolated gusty winds and hail with the strongest
cells. This threat should continue to diminish through the evening.
...
Isolated intense storms affected parts of west central Texas for a few
hours this evening. However...recent radar/satellite trends suggest
this threat is nearly over.
...
An isolated strong storm persists over northeast Colorado. This activity
may remain intense for another hour or so before weakening with the
onset of diurnal cooling.
.Hart.. 05/21/2012
Mesoscale Discussion
266
acus11 kwns 210032
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 210032
txz000-210200-
Mesoscale discussion 0856
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT sun may 20 2012
Areas affected...parts of northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286...
Valid 210032z - 210200z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286
continues.
Summary...ww 286 probably should be continued at least another hour
or two...but it could be cancelled prior to scheduled 04z expiration
if current trends continue.
Discussion...initial storm...near intersection of convective outflow
and surface frontal zone...has dissipated southwest of Wichita
Falls...but isolated to widely scattered new convective development
continues along the surface front extending west southwestward
toward the Lubbock area. Although cape is still moderately large
and inhibition appears weak...activity has remained somewhat
suppressed...even in the presence of sufficient shear for
supercells...beneath 30+ knots northwesterly 500 mb flow. Support for
a substantial further increase in storm coverage and intensity prior
to the onset of more rapid boundary layer cooling is not obvious.
However...isolated new storm development still does not appear out
of the question through 01-02z...particularly along and just north
of the front...to the east southeast of Lubbock...where lingering
boundary layer instability remains strongest.
.Kerr.. 05/21/2012
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...oun...sjt...lub...
Latitude...Lon 33240130 33630090 33689968 33719933 32999960 33060018
33140053 33240130
