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TWC's Exclusive TOR:CON Index

By Dr. Greg Forbes
Published: November 26, 2013
Background

Thunderstorm Outlook

Thunderstorm Outlook

The Weather Channel's Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes (Facebook | Twitter) developed the TOR:CON index to estimate the risk of a tornado on a given day or night near your area. What is TOR:CON?

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8+ Very high probability of a tornado 
6 - High probability of a tornado
4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10.  Multiply the value by 10 to get your chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location.  For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location (for example, southern Kansas).

For more on all severe thunderstorm threats, including damaging winds and large hail, check our severe weather tracker page.

Note: By definition, a severe thunderstorm contains one or more of the following: hail at least 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts 58 mph or higher, or a tornado.

Tuesday, Nov. 26

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging gusts and a few tornadoes in the FL panhandle, north FL, extreme southeast AL, south GA south of a line from Columbus to Augusta, east SC,
east NC.  TOR:CON - 4 FL panhandle; 4 east Carolinas; 2 to 3 elsewhere.

Tuesday Night, Nov. 26-27

Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging gusts and a few tornadoes in east FL panhandle, FL peninsula, southeast GA, east SC, east NC, extreme southeast VA.  TOR:CON - 4 east SC and NC;
2 rest of area.

Wednesday, Nov. 27

A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in the morning in northeast NC, extreme southeast VA.  TOR:CON - 2

Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 28

No severe thunderstorms. TOR:CON - zero

Friday, Nov. 29

No severe thunderstorms. TOR:CON - zero

Saturday, Nov. 30

No severe thunderstorms. TOR:CON - zero

Sunday, Dec. 1

Probably no severe thunderstorms, but moisture returns aloft across east TX, east OK, AR. TOR:CON - near zero


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