Why Did the ECMWF Forecast Joaquin So Well?

By: Bob Henson, 8:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2015

The post-mortems have begun on how well Hurricane Joaquin was predicted, and one of the key themes is why the flagship global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) beat NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS) to the punch in forecasting that Joaquin would remain well offshore. On Wednesday, September 30, less than six days from a potential landfall, the ECMWF operational model was consistently keeping Joaquin offshore, even as the GFS...


Carolina Floods Breach 18 Dams and Kill 16 People; Tropics Quiet Down

By: Jeff Masters, 3:16 PM GMT on October 06, 2015

South Carolina and North Carolina's epic deluge has finally ended after five days of ceaseless rains. No rain is expected to fall in either state through Thursday, giving time for the swollen rivers to recede and flooded communities to recover. The storm has killed at least fourteen people in South Carolina (eight drownings and six traffic deaths); an additional two storm-related fatalities were reported in North Carolina. The peak 5-day rainfall amount from the sto...

Flood Hurricane

More than Two Feet of Rain in South Carolina; Joaquin Heads to Sea

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, 5:45 PM GMT on October 05, 2015

The end is finally in sight for the epic multi-day rains that have pummeled the Carolinas over the last five days. Areas through the triangle from Columbia to Charleston to Myrtle Beach were especially hard-hit this weekend (see Figure 2). At least 9 flood-related deaths were reported across the Carolinas by Monday morning, and countless homes and cars were flooded. Transportation tangles continue across the region. As of 10 am EDT Monday, the flood had closed 391 r...

Hurricane Flood

Updated: 11:12 PM GMT on October 05, 2015

Devastating Rains in South Carolina; Joaquin Lashing Bermuda

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, 8:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2015

One of the most widespread and intense multi-day rain events in the history of the Southeast is bringing misery and destruction to thousands of residents. A broad swath of deep tropical moisture extending west from Hurricane Joaquin has intercepted a preexisting frontal zone and a strong upper-level low parked over the Southeast. These factors produced a NW-to-SE band of extremely heavy rain on Saturday from the northern South Carolina coast to the Uplands at the ot...

Hurricane Flood

Updated: 1:30 AM GMT on October 05, 2015

Landslide in Guatemala Kills 86, Leaves 500+ Missing

By: Jeff Masters, 1:25 PM GMT on October 04, 2015

One of the deadliest weather disasters of 2015 occurred in a suburb of Guatemala City, Guatemala on Thursday night, October 1, when a massive landslide of waterlogged earth and debris tore through the village of El Cambray II, in the municipality of Santa Catarina Pinula, destroying or damaging 125 homes. At least 86 were killed, and over 500 people were feared missing as of Sunday morning. According to Norman Avila of climaya.com, who maintains a personal weather s...


Updated: 1:37 PM GMT on October 04, 2015

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Gust front cloud, SE Michigan
Thunderstorm over Grand Teton
Double rainbow over Old Faithful
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