Today is forecast to be nearly the same temperature as yesterday.
Nowcast as of 2:40 PM CDT on May 12, 2008
Now
regional weather discussion... scattered showers will move northward and cross the Red River region of south-central and southeast Oklahoma through 330 PM. This particular activity...occurring east of a line from Seminole and Ada...down to Marietta is not expected to be severe. However...new thunderstorm development will be possible between 3 and 4 PM near a wind shift line that will extend from near Stillwater...to just east of Oklahoma City...to Duncan. This wind shift line is out ahead of a slow moving cold front and is expected to stall over the next few hours. New thunderstorm development along this line will likely be surface based and will quickly become severe. With adequate instability and deep layer shear in place...and recent observations indicating a weakening cap...any storms that develop will likely become supercells and produce very large and damaging hail. The greatest coverage of strong and severe storms may actually occur later on this evening and overnight across southern Oklahoma and western North Texas Texas...as a cold front stalls near the Red River. This thunderstorm activity would then spread back to the north and west Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Forecast for Pottawatomie
Updated: 4:20 am CDT on May 13, 2008
Today
Mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 10 to 20 mph.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of
much of central and eastern Oklahoma a large part of northern Texas
Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 900 PM CDT.
Tornadoes... hail to 3.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 80 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.
The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles west of Temple Texas to 30 miles north northwest of Muskogee Oklahoma. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou1).
Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
Discussion... very unstable air mass with MLCAPES aoa 3000 j/kg and little remaining inhibition are in place ahead of cold front across nrn TX/srn OK. Thunderstorms expected to develop rapidly during the afternoon along/ahead of cold front and the dry line extending swd in nrn TX. MDT/stg deep layer shear will support supercells including threat of very large hail and tornadoes.
Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24030.
