Ceres, NY

2:19 PM EST on February 12, 2012 (GMT -0500)
Elev: 1850 ft
Lon: 78.3° W
Lat: 42.0° N
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Active Advisory: Special Statement (US Severe Weather) Active Notice: Public Information Statement
Tropical Weather: Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (South Indian Ocean) Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Southern Pacific)
Weather Summary
Kari Kiefer
Weather Underground Forecast for Sunday, February 12, 2012.

The East dries out on Sunday, but wet weather continues moving through the West. A trough of low pressure advances eastward over the Great Basin and Central Rockies, producing moderate snow showers over Utah and Colorado. Winter weather advisories have been issued for parts of western Colorado as snowfall accumulations may reach from 6 to 8 inches by Sunday evening. Most of Utah, western Wyoming, and northern New Mexico should see lighter snow showers with accumulation around 1 to 2 inches. The tail end of this trough will extend into western Texas, bringing snow and freezing rain showers into northwestern Texas. Precipitation from this system will move into the Texas Panhandle late Sunday into Monday morning. Winter storm warnings have been issued for the region as 3 to 5 inches of snow are possible, with ice accumulations from 0.10 to 0.30 inches by Sunday evening. This will cause dangerous roads and travel conditions.

Meanwhile, another trough of low pressure and associated cold front approach the West Coast on Sunday. This system will reach the coasts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California in the afternoon and evening hours, bringing more rain showers. Temperatures will remain cool over most of the West Coast as this system pushes clouds and moisture onshore.

In the East, a strong ridge of high pressure allows for dry, sunny, and cool weather to persist. This system creates strong flow from the north, pushing cold air into the Plains and Eastern Valleys. Expect highs to range in the 20s in the Midwest, while the Ohio River Valley and Tennessee Valleys will see highs in the 30s. Freeze advisories have been issued for the Gulf states as low temperatures will drop into the 20s Sunday night. Dangerous fire conditions spread over the Southeastern states due to high pressure creating a very dry airmas with strong winds.
Weather Underground Forecast for Sunday, February 12, 2012.

The East dries out on Sunday, but wet weather continues moving through the West. A trough of low pressure advances eastward over the Great Basin and Central Rockies, producing moderate snow showers over Utah and Colorado. Winter weather advisories have been issued for parts of western Colorado as snowfall accumulations may reach from 6 to 8 inches by Sunday evening. Most of Utah, western Wyoming, and northern New Mexico should see lighter snow showers with accumulation around 1 to 2 inches. The tail end of this trough will extend into western Texas, bringing snow and freezing rain showers into northwestern Texas. Precipitation from this system will move into the Texas Panhandle late Sunday into Monday morning. Winter storm warnings have been issued for the region as 3 to 5 inches of snow are possible, with ice accumulations from 0.10 to 0.30 inches by Sunday evening. This will cause dangerous roads and travel conditions.

Meanwhile, another trough of low pressure and associated cold front approach the West Coast on Sunday. This system will reach the coasts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California in the afternoon and evening hours, bringing more rain showers. Temperatures will remain cool over most of the West Coast as this system pushes clouds and moisture onshore.

In the East, a strong ridge of high pressure allows for dry, sunny, and cool weather to persist. This system creates strong flow from the north, pushing cold air into the Plains and Eastern Valleys. Expect highs to range in the 20s in the Midwest, while the Ohio River Valley and Tennessee Valleys will see highs in the 30s. Freeze advisories have been issued for the Gulf states as low temperatures will drop into the 20s Sunday night. Dangerous fire conditions spread over the Southeastern states due to high pressure creating a very dry airmas with strong winds.
Weather Underground Broadcast Network
Ceres Weather at a Glance
Updated 2:19 PM EST
Elevation
1578 ft
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Now
Snow
Snow
Temperature
24.6 °F
Feels Like 13 °F
Wind(mph)
12.1
Sunrise / Set
7:13 AM
5:41 PM
Moon
Waning Gibbous
Today
Chance of Snow 25 °F
Chance of Snow
60% chance of precipitation
Tonight
Snow Showers 18 °F
Snow Showers
40% chance of precipitation
Tomorrow
Partly Cloudy 31 | 16 °F
Partly Cloudy
Tuesday
Snow 36 | 29 °F
Snow
50% chance of precipitation
Wednesday
Chance of Snow 40 | 25 °F
Chance of Snow
30% chance of precipitation
Thursday
Chance of Snow 38 | 27 °F
Chance of Snow
50% chance of precipitation
Today is forecast to be Cooler than yesterday.
Conditions
Pressure
29.83 in
Visibility
0.5 miles
Clouds
Few 1400 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1900 ft
Overcast 4200 ft
Moisture
Humidity
63%
Rainfall
0.00 in
Snow Depth
Not available.
METAR
METAR KELZ 121856Z AUTO 30019G37KT 1/2SM SN FEW014 BKN019 OVC042 M07/M11 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 28037/1850 SLP127 P0000 T10671111 $
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Weather Radio
Launch Weather Radio
Temperature
Windchill
13 °F
Dew Point
14 °F
Wind
Speed / Dir
12.1 mph from SSW
Wind Gust
28.2 mph
Health
UV
1 out of 16
Pollen
.30 out of 12
Pollen Forecast
Ozone
Good
Flu Activity
Sporadic
View Flu Map
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Regional Forecast for Allegany
This Afternoon
chancesnow Snow showers. Additional accumulation an inch or less. Cold with highs in the lower 20s. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph...becoming northwest. Chance of snow 90 percent.
Tonight
nt_chancesnow Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely in the evening... then partly cloudy with scattered snow showers overnight. Little or no additional accumulation. Windy and not as cold with near steady temperatures between 15 and 20. West winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.
Monday
partlycloudy Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds 10 to 20 mph...increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
Monday Night
nt_chancesnow Partly cloudy in the evening...then cloudy with a chance of snow showers overnight. Lows 15 to 20. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 40 percent.
Tuesday
chancesnow Snow likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.
Tuesday Night
nt_chancesnow Snow likely. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent.
Wednesday
snow Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
Wednesday Night
nt_cloudy Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.
Thursday
snow Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Thursday Night
nt_chancesnow Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the mid 20s.
Friday
chancesnow Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 30s.
Friday Night
nt_chancesnow Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Lows 15 to 20.
Saturday
chancesnow Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 30s.
Source: NWS at 1:16 PM EST on February 12, 2012
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Forecast
View Calendar 7-Day Weather Forecast for 14721
Sunday, 12
Chance of Snow
25 | 18 °F
Chance of Snow
Chance of
Precipitation
60%
Monday, 13
Partly Cloudy
31 | 16 °F
Partly Cloudy
Chance of
Precipitation
0%
Tuesday, 14
Snow
36 | 29 °F
Snow
Chance of
Precipitation
50%
Wednesday, 15
Chance of Snow
40 | 25 °F
Chance of Snow
Chance of
Precipitation
30%
Thursday, 16
Chance of Snow
38 | 27 °F
Chance of Snow
Chance of
Precipitation
50%
Friday, 17
Chance of Snow
34 | 18 °F
Chance of Snow
Chance of
Precipitation
30%
Saturday, 18
Chance of Snow
31 | NA
Chance of Snow
Chance of
Precipitation
30%
Source: NWS at 1:16 PM EST on February 12, 2012
Regional Forecast for Allegany
This Afternoon
chancesnow Snow showers. Additional accumulation an inch or less. Cold with highs in the lower 20s. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph...becoming northwest. Chance of snow 90 percent.
Tonight
nt_chancesnow Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely in the evening... then partly cloudy with scattered snow showers overnight. Little or no additional accumulation. Windy and not as cold with near steady temperatures between 15 and 20. West winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 9 | 8 19 | 12 21 | 12 18 | 13
Wind 13 mph WNW 14 mph WNW 17 mph WNW 14 mph West
Humidity 84% 70% 69% 77%
Chance of Precip. 100% 60% 60% 40%
Cloud Cover 100% 97% 93% 61%
Conditions Snow Showers Snow Showers Snow Showers Snow Showers
Sunrise & Sunset
7:13 AM
5:41 PM
Source: NWS at 1:16 PM EST on February 12, 2012
Regional Forecast for Allegany
Monday
partlycloudy Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds 10 to 20 mph...increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
Monday Night
nt_chancesnow Partly cloudy in the evening...then cloudy with a chance of snow showers overnight. Lows 15 to 20. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 40 percent.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 18 | 13 28 | 15 27 | 12 21 | 13
Wind 12 mph West 13 mph West 9 mph West 6 mph WSW
Humidity 84% 57% 49% 75%
Chance of Precip. 40% 0% 0% 50%
Cloud Cover 40% 28% 21% 68%
Conditions Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Clear Partly Cloudy
Sunrise & Sunset
7:12 AM
5:42 PM
Source: NWS at 1:16 PM EST on February 12, 2012
Regional Forecast for Allegany
Tuesday
chancesnow Snow likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.
Tuesday Night
nt_chancesnow Snow likely. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 17 | 17 31 | 23 33 | 26 30 | 27
Wind 5 mph SW 10 mph SSW 7 mph SSW 4 mph SSW
Humidity 99% 72% 74% 85%
Chance of Precip. 50% 60% 60% 60%
Cloud Cover 94% 98% 100% 100%
Conditions Chance of Snow Snow Snow Snow
Sunrise & Sunset
7:11 AM
5:44 PM
Source: NWS at 1:16 PM EST on February 12, 2012
Regional Forecast for Allegany
Wednesday
snow Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
Wednesday Night
nt_cloudy Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 29 | 27 37 | 27 33 | 25 28 | 25
Wind 5 mph SW 8 mph WSW 6 mph West 6 mph SW
Humidity 91% 69% 72% 86%
Chance of Precip. 60% 60% 30% 30%
Cloud Cover 100% 100% 91% 75%
Conditions Chance of Snow Chance of Snow Chance of Snow Mostly Cloudy
Sunrise & Sunset
7:09 AM
5:45 PM
Source: NWS at 1:16 PM EST on February 12, 2012
Regional Forecast for Allegany
Thursday
snow Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Thursday Night
nt_chancesnow Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the mid 20s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 25 | 25 36 | 27 35 | 29 30 | 27
Wind 5 mph SSW 8 mph South 6 mph SSE 9 mph WSW
Humidity 97% 72% 79% 86%
Chance of Precip. 50% 50% 50% 50%
Cloud Cover 83% 89% 90% 95%
Conditions Mostly Cloudy Chance of Snow Chance of Snow Chance of Snow
Sunrise & Sunset
7:08 AM
5:46 PM
Source: NWS at 1:16 PM EST on February 12, 2012
Regional Forecast for Allegany
Friday
chancesnow Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 30s.
Friday Night
nt_chancesnow Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Lows 15 to 20.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 27 | 24 33 | 23 28 | 21 23 | 17
Wind 7 mph West 12 mph WSW 11 mph West 9 mph West
Humidity 88% 70% 73% 77%
Chance of Precip. 50% 50% 30% 30%
Cloud Cover 95% 79% 85% 73%
Conditions Chance of Snow Chance of Snow Chance of Snow Chance of Snow
Sunrise & Sunset
7:08 AM
5:46 PM
Source: NWS at 1:16 PM EST on February 12, 2012
Regional Forecast for Allegany
Saturday
chancesnow Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 30s.
Hourly Forecast 6AM 12 Noon 6PM 12 Midnight
Temp. | Dew Point 19 | 16 29 | 16 26 | 14 23 | 17
Wind 11 mph WNW 14 mph WNW 7 mph WNW 9 mph West
Humidity 85% 58% 63% 77%
Chance of Precip. 40% 40% 40% 30%
Cloud Cover 78% 78% 70% 73%
Conditions Chance of Snow Chance of Snow Chance of Snow Chance of Snow
Sunrise & Sunset
7:08 AM
5:46 PM
BestForecast (what's this?)
Scientific Forecaster Discussion — MOS Weather Graph
Nearby
History & Almanac
February 12, 2012 Max Temp Min Temp
Normal (KBFD) 26 °F 10 °F
Record (KBFD) 56 °F (1965) -19 °F (1979)
Yesterday 35.6 °F 10.6 °F
Choose a date
Earthquake Activity
City Distance Mag. Time & Date
No recent earthquake activity has been reported nearby.
Minimum magnitude displayed is 2.5.
More information at USGS.gov
Air Quality
  Air Quality AQ Index Pollutant
Yesterday Good
OZONE
Current Good
OZONE
Sunday Good
PM2.5
Monday Good
PM2.5
Astronomy
Feb. 12, 2012 Rise Set
Actual Time 7:13 AM EST 5:41 PM EST
Civil Twilight 6:44 AM EST 6:10 PM EST
Nautical Twilight 6:11 AM EST 6:43 PM EST
Astronomical Twilight 5:39 AM EST 7:15 PM EST
Moon 11:45 PM EST 9:24 AM EST
Length Of Visible Light 11h 25m
Length of Day
10h 27m
Tomorrow will be 2m 34s longer.
Waning Gibbous, 71% of the Moon is Illuminated
Today
Waning Gibbous
Feb 14
Last Quarter
Feb 21
New
Feb 29
First Quarter
Mar 8
Full
Visit Astronomy
Today's Extremes
State Highs State Lows
33 °F
Montauk
32 °F
New York
32 °F
New York JFK
32 °F
Westhampton Beach
30 °F
Montgomery
-7 °F
Saranac Lake
-7 °F
Watertown
-2 °F
Fort Drum
3 °F
Massena
6 °F
Plattsburgh
Source: NWS
Snow Depth
Station Depth Elevation
No new snow has been reported.
Snow Depth Reports — Snow Depth Map
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February 2012
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News
Travel & Activities
Travel Planning
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Aviation
City Temp. Conditions Updated
Wellsville 20 °F Snow 1:56 PM EST
Bradford 19 °F Light Snow 2:12 PM EST
Dansville 23 °F Overcast 2:11 PM EST
Jamestown This station is not reporting.
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Flight To ETA Status
No flights were found.
Flight Tracker by FlightAware FlightAware
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Type Condition
Flight Rule: LIFR (KELZ)
Wind Speed: 19.0 kts.
Wind Dir: 211° (SSW)
Ceiling: 1900 ft

METAR KELZ 121856Z AUTO 30019G37KT 1/2SM SN FEW014 BKN019 OVC042 M07/M11 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 28037/1850 SLP127 P0000 T10671111 $

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Nearby Events
Event Date Forecast
No events within 10 mi of location. View all events.
Event data courtesy eviesays.com
Sports
Event Date Forecast
Budweiser Shootout 8:29 PM EST on February 18, 2012 Partly Cloudy, 59 °F
Gatorade Duel 1 2:19 PM EST on February 23, 2012 Average High 70° F/ 21° C
Event Date Forecast
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am 8:30 AM PST on February 12, 2012 Mostly Cloudy, 45 °F
Northern Trust Open 8:30 AM PST on February 16, 2012 Clear, 61 °F
View all Sports Weather
Weather Stations
Station Location Temp. Windchill Dew Point Humidity Wind Precipitation Elevation Updated Type Website
Annin Township, Turtlepoint, PA 24.6 °F 13 °F 14 °F 63% SSW  at  12.1 mph 0.00 in / hr 1578 ft 2:19 PM EST Rapid Fire  
HADS ALLEGHENY RIVER NEAR OLEAN NY, Saint Bonaventure, NY - - - - North  at  - 0.00 in / hr 1419 ft 1:30 PM EST MADIS
Downtown Duke Center, Duke Center, PA 21.9 °F 10 °F 12 °F 66% West  at  11.5 mph 0.00 in / hr 1604 ft 2:19 PM EST Rapid Fire  
HADS ALLEGHENY RIVER AT PORT ALLEGANY PA, Port Allegany, PA - - - - North  at  - 0.00 in / hr 873 ft 1:45 PM EST MADIS
NonFedAWOS CATTARAUGUS COUNTY-OLEAN , Hinsdale, NY 19 °F 2 °F 10 °F 68% NW  at  22 mph 0.00 in / hr 2134 ft 1:56 PM EST MADIS
HADS FRANKLINVILLE NEAR OLEAN 18N NY, Franklinville, NY - - - - North  at  - 0.00 in / hr 1580 ft 1:15 PM EST MADIS
Jenkins Hill, Coudersport, PA 19.1 °F 12 °F 16 °F 87% NW  at  5.0 mph 0.00 in / hr 2150 ft 2:15 PM EST Normal  
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Special Statement
Mobile & Email Alerts Statement as of 12:30 PM EST on February 12, 2012

... Lake effect snow this afternoon...

An area of moderate lake effect snow will continue across the area
through the early afternoon. The heaviest snow is across southern
Erie County... and will move into southern Wyoming... as well as
northern Cattaraugus and Allegany counties. Snowfall rates of 1
to 1.5 inches per hour can be expected in the most intense lake
effect snow band.

In addition to the snow... west winds gusting to 30 mph... will
result in considerable blowing and drifting snow. Visibilities
will be reduced to less than a quarter of a mile at times.

Travel will be difficult across the area... as the wind will blow
snow onto roadways... resulting in slick spots. Motorists should
be prepared for snow covered roads and poor visibility.




Public Information Statement
Mobile & Email Alerts Statement as of 1:07 PM EST on February 12, 2012

Below are the 48 hour snowfall totals from across the area.

********************Storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
                     snowfall of
                     /inches/ measurement

New York

... Allegany County...
   Alfred 3.5 700 am 2/12 co-op observer
   Whitesville 2.0 730 am 2/12 co-op observer
   Wellsville 2.0 600 am 2/12 co-op observer

... Cattaraugus County...
   Salamanca 7.0 700 am 2/12 co-op observer
   West Valley 6.0 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   Little Valley 5.0 700 am 2/12 co-op observer
   Olean 2.0 725 am 2/12 co-op observer

... Chautauqua County...
   4 SSE Frewsburg 4.3 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   Jamestown 4.3 700 am 2/12 co-op observer

... Erie County...
   2 NE Boston 6.0 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   Colden 5.2 730 am 2/12 co-op observer
   2 SSW Blasdell 5.0 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   2 se Glenwood 4.8 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   Buffalo 4.0 100 PM 2/12 NWS office
   Clarence Center 4.0 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   Wales 3.8 700 am 2/12 co-op observer
   3 E Williamsville 3.8 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   West Seneca 3.5 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   East Aurora 3.4 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   Tonawanda 3.3 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   Kenmore 3.0 700 am 2/12 cocorahs

... Genesee County...
   2 NE Stafford 3.7 700 am 2/12 cocorahs

... Lewis County...
   Lowville 0.7 700 am 2/12 co-op observer

... Livingston County...
   4 WSW Dansville 3.5 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   Avon 3.1 700 am 2/12 co-op observer
   Portageville 2.5 700 am 2/12 co-op observer

... Monroe County...
   Rochester Intl Arpt 15.1 100 PM 2/12 ASOS
   Greece 14.0 1200 PM 2/12 trained spotter
   3 NNW Rochester 9.1 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   5 WNW Rochester 8.5 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   4 SSE Pittsford 6.8 700 am 2/12 cocorahs

... Niagara County...
   1 NE Lockport 5.5 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   1 NE Pendleton 5.3 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   1 NNE north tonawand 4.5 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   6 E Niagara Falls 3.0 700 am 2/12 co-op observer

... Ontario County...
   Canandaigua 4.5 800 am 2/12 co-op observer
   Geneva 4.2 800 am 2/12 co-op observer

... Oswego County...
   Minetto 3.9 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   2 SSE Palermo 0.6 600 am 2/12 co-op observer

... Wayne County...
   Sodus 12.0 1000 am 2/12 trained spotter
   2 SW Walworth 9.6 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   2 NW Palmyra 8.5 700 am 2/12 cocorahs
   1 E Newark 6.6 700 am 2/12 cocorahs

... Wyoming County...
   Warsaw 5.5 700 am 2/12 co-op observer
   3 N Silver Springs 4.0 700 am 2/12 co-op observer


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