Marine Weather for HS 102

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 200 am PDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

The IR Sat img GOES-W still shows conv clds nr and ahead of a frnt acrs the cntrl region with some lightng behind the frnt mainly ovr the NW of the nrn wtrs. The radar still has some tstms ovr the cntrl region. At 06z low pres 997 mb ovr Canada just NW wash state xtnds a cld frnt S then SW acrs the cntrl regions. An area of low pres with sevrl cntrs of low pres stretches se from the main low pres 980 mb in the glf of AK thru the low pres ovr the NE wtrs into inland low pres 1004 mb ovr wash/oreg states. Weak hgh pres ridge W of the srn wtrs xtnds acrs the srn wtrs. The pres grdt has relaxed ovr the nrn wtrs including the nrn cal wtrs. The Max obs winds hv now diminished to below gale force ovr the nrn wtrs. The latst ascat pass at 0544z cvrd most of the region and has no indc of gale force winds.

There is sig energy upstream that is heading the offshr wtrs and will impact the nrn region ovr the wkend. The trof seem quite deep aloft and that is likely to elevate the pres grdnt ovr the region and so will go with any mdl that will support strngr winds Sat.

The glbl mdls tho streaming into our system slowly...have shown some decent agrmnt ovr the shrt term and so will go with GFS for this fcst. In the short term low pres ovr the N-ern wtrs will move inland and the hgh to the W of the srn wtrs will slightly weaken in the same vcnty. The cld frnt will move se acrs the cntrl region and weaken. Another low pres will form ovr the ern pac and move twd the cntrl region with a strng cld frnt.

.Seas....the seas range btwn 12 and 15 ft ovr the nrn wtrs and 8 to 12 ft ovr the srn wtrs. The last Jason pass at 0628z indc hghr seas ovr the nrn wtrs reaching 14 ft. The nww3 multi grid fits well with the obsvd seas pattern and so will go with it. The seas will susbside later today but will rebuild ovr the weeknd espcly ovr the cntrl pres region.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon. Storm possible Mon night. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Mon. Storm possible Mon night. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Mon into Mon night.

.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. .Pzz920...Outer waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale Fri night. Gale possible Sat. .Pzz925...Outer waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. .Pzz930...Outer waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Sat.

$$

.Forecaster musonda. Ocean prediction center.

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