marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1259 am PDT sun Aug 30 2015
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The 06z sfc analysis indicated a trough extending across the WA/OR waters...with a weakening cold front over the N CA waters. Ascat passes from late Sat evening with decent coverage over all but the S CA waters indicated the strongest winds over the WA/OR offshore waters in the 15 to 20 kt range...with an area of 25 to 30 kt winds to the W of the WA/OR waters.
The 00z models have come into better agreement with sfc features compared to the past few runs. The low pres trough over the WA/OR waters will move E of the area this morning. A warm front will then pass just N of the far N waters later today and this evening. The first of several weak cold front will then move into the area late Mon and Mon night...then weaken over the or waters Tue. Another weak cold front will then move into the WA/OR waters later Tue and Tue night. All of the models keep winds below gale with both of these fronts. The timing of the fronts is similar...however there are some subtle differences with winds speeds with second front Tue and Tue night. Over the CA waters...a trough will stregthen the next few days and then weaken Tue into Wed night before strengthening again Thu through Fri. Winds will also remain just below gale here over the coastal waters and adjacent offshore area. Will populate wind grids using the GFS 10m winds through 09z Tue. For 12z Tue through 21z Wed will use a 50/50 blend of GFS/ECMWF which results in a decent compromise between the stronger GFS winds and weaker UKMET. For 00z Thu and beyond will again use GFS 10m winds.
.Seas...The 06z sea state analysis indicated that the 00z mww3 is initalized OK with observed seas within a ft of the model values. As with the winds...will use the mww3 enp values except from 12z Tue to 21z Wed will use 50/50 enp/wam blend.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster kosier. Ocean prediction center.