marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1230 am PDT Wed Aug 27 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The main concern ovr the next day or two will continue to be the long period S swells assoc with hurcn Marie currently located about 450 nm S and SW of the srn most socal off wtrs. Per the latest NHC adv...Marie is fcst to weaken to a tropical storm ltr tda...and then become Post-tropical nr 26.5n 130.3w by 48 hrs or at 00utc Aug 29th. For adtl info pls refer to the latest adv from the NHC. Otw...the region will remain between high pres W of the wtrs...and a low pres trof inland ovr the wrn states tda thru tngt. A weak cold front will approach pz5 wtrs from the NW ltr tda...and then cross the wtrs as it dsipts tngt into early Thu. High pres will build to the W of the wtrs behind the front ltr Thu into Fri. Another wk cold front will cross the pz5 wtrs ltr Fri into Fri ngt...and then dsipt by Sat. A third weak cold front will reach the pz5 wtrs ltr sun or sun ngt. Elsewhere the interaction between high pres W of the wtrs...and low pres nr the coast and inland will cont thru the wk into the wknd...with some increase in N-NW winds lkly ovr mainly calif off wtrs by the wknd as the pres grad between these two systems begins to strengthen. Ovrall...no major changes from the prev few opc fcsts for the early am package.
Models...the 00z mdls remain in vry gud agreement ovr the off wtrs thru Sat ngt. As a result...we will stay close to the 00z GFS 10m winds for the off wtrs fcst into Sat ngt. For sun and sun ngt the 00z GFS is a little stronger vs the remaining non-GFS guid regarding a cold front reaching the pz5 wtrs. We will therefore trend the fcst more toward the 00z ECMWF mdl for sun and sun ngt which also fits closer to the new Med range guid from wpc.
.Seas...Long pd S swells generated by hurcn Marie are still fcst to persist ovr the off wtrs tda into tngt...and then decay ltr tngt thru Thu as Marie weakens and tracks further to the W and NW away from the wtrs. Ovrall...the 00z enp ww3 mdl guid is running slightly higher than the obs and altimeter pass data noted ovr the off wtrs per the 06z rp1 sea state analysis. It is however closer than the 00z ECMWF wam WV guid which is running up to 4 to 5 ft on the low side off the socal coast. We will therefore remain close to the enp ww3 mdl output thru Sat ngt...and then transition to the ECMWF wam WV guid thereafter as we also trend from the GFS to the ECMWF for winds as noted abv.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...Na
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster Mills. Ocean prediction center.