marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 715 PM PST Fri 7 Mar 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Hi res ascat-a and -b overpasses missed area of strongest pre frntl winds just W of pz5 waters at 20z. However were some gale returns NW of Vancouver Island and over hecate Strait. Will keep pre frntl gales pz5 waters overngt into Sat evening...and nrn pz6 waters Sat similar to previous forecasts...but with MDT confidence at best given near neutral to stable low lvls. Mdls are in above avg agreement thru the forecast period and are in agreement strong high pres will build E toward nrn CA and establish a ridge across pz5 waters Mon. As coastal trof dvlps alng CA 12z/18z GFS and 12z ECMWF/UKMET all indicate increasing N winds to 25 or 30 kt Mon and Tue. 18z GFS/NAM were generally consistent with their respective previous runs and will not be making significant changes from opc continuity. 18z multigrid wavewatch iii has generally within a ft or so of latest E Pacific ship/buoy obs...and looks reasonable thru the forecast period.
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12z global models in good agmrt thru short term...with some minor discrepencies noted in the extended time period. Populated winds with 12z GFS thru short term.
Strong cold front approaching offshr waters from the W. Global models still showing psbl gale force winds dvlpg over the pz5 waters tonight into Sat in the sly flow ahead of the front. Will populate higher 30m winds thru Sat night to get the higher winds. GFS a little weaker with the winds ahead of the front...and keeps 40 kt winds NW of the area. Will keep Max winds to 35 kt in this package. Models continue to show second area of gales dvlpg along the front across the pz5 waters Sat into Sat night as a frontal wave moves NE along the front and across the region. Will keep gales in the fcst thru Sat night for the pz5 waters. Also gales may clip the NW portion of the nrn pz6 waters Sat as the frontal wave moves NW of the area. Will add gales to the fcst for Sat. Front weakens as it moves se thru the nrn and cntrl pz6 waters sun into Mon...before eventually dsiptng.
Models still showing a trof moving across the nrn and cntrl pz6 waters Sun night into Mon. GFS a bit stronger with the winds associated with the trof. Have capped winds to 20 kt in assoc with this system...which is more in line with the weaker ECMWF and UKMET.
High pres ridge sets up over the NW portion of the offshr waters late Mon and Tue...as a low pres trough develops along the calif coast. Will keep Max winds to 30 kt along the ern portions of the calif offshr waters late Mon into Tue...which is a good compromise between the stronger GFS and the weaker ECMWF and UKMET. Ridge begins to break down Wed as a cold front approaches the nrn waters.
There is a bit of difference in the timing of the front...with the GFS being a bit faster with the front than both the ECMWF and the UKMET. May need to slow down timing of the GFS a bit... especially with a fairly strong ridge setting up over the offshr waters. But do not expect any gale conditions associated with this front.
.Seas...Enp version of wwiii within a ft or two of current obs. Will populate grids with latest wwiii guidance for this pacakge.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance... N/A.
.Warnings...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz081...Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout... gale tonight into Sat night. .Pzz082...Cape Lookout to Pt St George... gale tonight into Sat night.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz083...Pt St George to pt Arena... gale Sat.
.Forecaster Clark/achorn. Ocean prediction center.
There are no current maps for this region.
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NOT FOR NAVIGATION. DO NOT RELY ON THIS DATA FOR DECISIONS THAT CAN RESULT IN HARM TO ANYONE OR ANYTHING.