marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 714 am PDT Wed Apr 23 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Cold front and assd low pres area cont to appch FM the W. On the map...a 1005 mb low was loc nr 45n138w. This low was not picked up well by the models...as the latest model runs depict a strngr low to dvlp just W of here today...then mov ENE. Will hav to watch this more ern low...because if it holds...gales may dvlp sooner tngt. Otw...sfc conts along 33/34n W of the region...with rdg xtndg NE to nrn CA. Rdg helps support gradient of NW winds 20 to 30 kt ovr the S CA waters. Buoy 46059 was obsrvg NW winds 29 g 35 kt at 13z. Fcst looks good for the short term...so wl only make minor chngs to the fcts for the update.
----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...
At 0600z Sat img has no indc of conv clds ovr the region except those assctd with a cld frnt W of the region. The radar has no indc of tstms either ovr the region. The last ascat pass at 0527z indctd that the gale force winds hv diminished to 30 kt ovr the ern parts of the srn cal wtrs.
Low pres 1005 mb ovr the nrn parts of The Wash wtrs has a trough stretching S along the ern edge of the nrn wtrs. This low will weaken and dispt while another frntl sys approaches the nrn wtrs immediately. Low pres will dvlp along the frntl bndry and move into the nrn wtrs and all the mdls agree with this soln. Hgh pres 1029 mb cntrd W of the srn wtrs is part of a large area of high pres with second cntr father W. The frst hgh pres cntr will drift se as a ridge xtnds E acrs the srn and cntrl wtrs. After the fist hgh pres dispts its secondary cntr will strengthen and continue to build a ridge acrs the srn wtrs. This hgh pres will move slightly se and start to weaken allowing a strng cld frnt to move into the nrn wtrs. The mdls are in some agrmnt for this senario with just mnr diffs mainly in the value of the cntrl pres. Otherwise mdls are generally in agrmnt on the few synop fetaures that will afeect the region and so will just contne with GFS for this pckge.
.Seas...The seas range btwn 9 and 13 ft. The last Jason pass at 0448z indc hgh seas that seas ranged btwn 8 and 13 ft with hghst seas ovr the nrn wtrs. Nww3 multi-grid WV mdl fits very well with the obsvd seas pattern and has been quite consstnt with the in the previous runs is close to the ecmwfwave. See no need to deviate from nww3.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Warnings...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale tonight. Gale possible Sat. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale tonight. Gale possible Sat. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Sat. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale tonight into Thu. Gale possible Sat. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale possible Sat.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz840...inner waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA... gale possible Sat into Sat night.
.Forecaster prosise/musonda. Ocean prediction center.