HS 102

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 555 am PST sun 12 Feb 2012

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

No major changes are planned for the immediate short term period for the morning update. The models are all in good agreement with the low and associated cold front fcst to move S across the offshore waters today through Mon night. For Tue...the ECMWF/UKMET and NAM all indicate a period of gales for the WA waters...so will bump up winds here. For the remainder of the fcst period...the models continue to be out of sync and this likely due to the the rapid movement of systems...so confidence in any one solution is low. The previous fcst looks reasonable so will not make any drastic changes. The 12z sea state analysis indcated that the ww3 fcst values were mostly within a ft or so of the observed values.

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Previous discussion...

Latest Sat pix shows cldfnt approaching the pz5 waters with winds inadav of bndry to 20 kt...seas to 11 ft at buoy 46005. First look at 00z GFS guid shows good agreement with prv run. The main concern over the next 48 hrs will be the winds behind the front as it moves down the CST. Expect winds to reach gale force in gradient Post front. The front will move rapidly se along the CST. The exact timing is somewhat in question although will continue gales into central waters. High pres will move rapidly ovr the region following frontal passage. An area of low pres is fcst by GFS to dig se across much of the offshore waters during Tue and Wed. The global models have had trouble the last couple days with that system...offering different soln. At least for the last 2 cycles the GFS is keeping the same trend. Will likely also indicate gales ovr pz5 waters on Thursday as GFS is indicating the for the second cycle in a row. Many of the global models are less pronounced with the low center moving se along CST on Tue...than the GFS is. Ww3 looks OK with some minor adjustments needed. Not likely to go as high as ww3 late in period with nrn system as appears overdone.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...gale today into Mon...high confdc. Gale Tue...low to MDT confdc. .Cape Lookout to point St George...Gale today into Mon...high confdc.

.Pz6 California waters... .Pt St George to pt Arena...gale today into Mon...high confdc. .Pt Arena to pt Conception...Gale tonight into Mon...high confdc .Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.

.Forecaster kosier/Shaw. Ocean forecast branch.