Marine Weather for HS 102

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 823 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

No major changes are anticipated for the eve update. We will allow gales off the nocal and srn oreg coasts to expire later tonite...with the next set of gales dvlpg lt Tue nite and Wed off the central and nocal coasts. Overall...high pres will prevail to the W of the wtrs for the next few days with a coastal and inland low pres trof also persisting for much of the upcoming wk.

Seas...sea hts range from nr 13 ft off the nocal coast in/nr the gale area...to 5 ft ovr NW wash wtrs. Again...little change is anticipated from the prev fcst for the eve update.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

Ascat pass from 18z indicates Max winds to 30 kt along nrn CA and SW or coasts. The overall pattern across the epac will remain very stable during the upcoming week as the pattern remains the same. The 12z GFS is very consistant with prior run as is the ECMWF. Ovr next 36 hrs the ridge/trof combination along the California coast will provide the needed gradient to produce winds nr gale force. A cold front will cross the waters on Mon weakening the gradient for a while. After the frontal passagle strong high pres will build along 140w allowing the gradient to tighten once again as winds increase to gale force along CA CST. The 30m bl winds from the GFS is stronger than the ECMWF fcsts. When pop the grids I will use a 2/3 30m GFS to 1/3 ECMWF blend. This will take the edge off the Max winds of the GFS...which seems more reasonable.

Seas...will pop wave grids using the same blend as the wind grids. May trim back seas a ft in Max areas to appear more reasonable.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz815...inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale tonight.

.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale tonight. Gale possible Tue night into Wed night. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Tue night into Wed night. .Pzz925...Outer waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Wed night. .Pzz830...Inner waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Wed night.

$$

.Forecaster Mills/Shaw. Ocean prediction center.

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