marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 140 am PST Fri 6 Dec 2013
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The pattern impacting the NE pac continues to be the stg low pres system S of the aluetians...the dwnstrm ridging bldg E of 140w and the S to se plunging shrtwv trof over the pacnw. In looking at the latest mdls still showing good consistency tda through the weekend and also in line with the latest ensemble means. In general will be leaning twd the latest GFS mdl which has this consistency with the othr mdls. Then by Mon into Tue more sprd noted in the mdls and will be leaning the GFS slowly twd the ECMWF/UKMET mdls as the upper level axis moving twd 135w weakening and breaking down...allowing shrtwv trofs to move twd the WA/OR ofshr.
At the sfc...watching a low pres about 110 nm W to SW of Cape Flattery move S. A 0047 UTC asat hi pass had gale winds in the 30 to 40 kt range moving in the NE ptn of WA ofshr this mrng...this pass just shwd a small band of gale winds...therefore by nxt fcst package winds will be going dwn below gale force in the next cpr of hrs. As this low moves S continue to watch for a SW trailing cold fnt moving through the or in the CA ofshrs later tda through tngt and then into srn CA ofshr by Sat aftn. Continue to be concern about the intensity of the cold fnt moving into the srn CA ofshr on Sat...as high pres blds twd the CST. Therefore given the good mixing along and behind this cold fnt and then the resulting LCL pres gradient will continue to keep the mention of gale winds for the NE ptn of the srn CA ofshr for late Sat into ery sun. Otrw will be following the GFS output.
The next concern will be dealing with a fntl bndry impacting the WA/OR ofsshr Mon into Tue...current thinking will have a wrmfnt move through the ofshr WA Mon as a cold fnt apprchs on Tue. Winds below gale force attm.
As for seas...will be generally following the latest mww3 wave mdl...except to enhanced the seas over the srn ofshr during the gale pd.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...early this mrng. .Cape Lookout to Pt St George...None.
.Pz6 California waters... .Pt St George to pt Arena...none. .Pt Arena to pt Conception...None. .Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...Gale Sat eve into sun mrng. $$
.Forecaster mcrandal. Ocean prediction center.
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