marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 116 PM PST Mon Dec 22 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
There an ascat pass FM 17z that had a swath ovr much of the srn CA wtrs with winds to 30 kt alg and W of 120w where data was avlbl. This data fit well with 12z GFS 30m winds assoc with coastal trof ovr the srn and cntrl areas of CA. Elsw dvlpg low pres was W of the WA wtrs and intensifying rapidly while movg NE. Stalled fnt earlier tda is lifting N as a wm fnt and is acrs the WA/OR wtrs. The fnt shud lift N of the wtrs later tngt. Later tngt cd fnt assoc with strengthening low wl mov E into the wtrs. Mdls hav not trended any stgr with winds and wl stay with winds to 30 kt ovr the WA wtrs. The cd fnt movs slowly se ovr the wtrs Tue and Tue ngt...and then movs quicker se acrs the CA wtrs as stg area of high pres builds in FM the W and NW Wed and Wed ngt...before movg into the srn CA wtrs late Wed ngt and Thu. GFS has backed off a bit on dvlpg low that aprs to cross the or/nrn CA wtrs Wed. The UKMET also implies low pres movg E ovr this region. As the high pres builds in Wed and Wed ngt wl hav winds to 40 kt ovr the nrn CA wtrs. The stg area of high pres builds ewd Thu into Thu ngt...and begins weakening late Thu ngt into Fri. Dvlpg low pres movs se ovr the WA wtrs Sat and inland Sat ngt. Plan to hav gales with GFS and ECMWF supporting gales...altho GFS is a bit quicker. Another area of stg high pres builds E and se towards the WA/OR and nrn areas of CA late Sat and Sat ngt.
.Grids...Plan on using 12z GFS 10m winds thru Tue ngt...then 12z ECMWF mdl thru rmndr of fcst pd. Wl be boosting ECMWF higher FM 12z Wed thru 12z Fri. With regards to seas wl blend wwiii and ECMWF init thru Tue ngt...then blend wwiii with ECMWF WV guid 40/60 thru abt Fri...then favor ECMWF WV with low pres crossing the WA wtrs Sat.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...Na.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Sat night. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale possible Sat night. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Sat into Sat night. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Wed. Gale possible Wed night. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Wed.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Wed. Gale possible Wed night. .Pzz920...Outer waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Wed. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale Wed. Gale possible Wed night into Thu. .Pzz925...Outer waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale Wed. .Pzz830...Inner waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Wed night into Thu night. .Pzz930...Outer waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale Wed. .Pzz835...Inner waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA... gale possible Wed night into Thu night. .Pzz935...Outer waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA... gale possible Thu. .Pzz840...Inner waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA... gale possible Wed night into Thu.
.Forecaster Rowland. Ocean prediction center.