marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 711 am PDT Tue Jul 7 2015
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
12z opc sfc analysis shows a 1015 mb low over the NE pz5 waters W/a low pres trough extending from its center S and SW through the rest of the pz5 waters and into the nrn pz6 waters. Another weak 1014 mb low was located just W of the nrn pz6 waters. A weak high pres ridge was observed over the rest of the pz6 waters. For this intermediate forecast update will not make any significant changes to the ongoing forecast.
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Ascat pass from 06z continues to show weak conditions across much of the offshore waters with variable 10 kt or less. The strongest winds are occuring ovr sern ptn of CA waters NW 15-20 kt. Buoy 46047 rpt NW 15 kt/8 ft at 08z. A weak troffiness prevails across much of the waters with a low centered just W of the nrn CA waters...while a weak high pres ridge extends over far sern CA waters attm. The very weak pattern will continue throughout the week with no strong ridge/trof combination to enhance the gradient across the waters. I would be surprised if winds exceeded 20 kt across any portions of the waters during the next 7 days...with the possible exception of the far nrn ptn of the WA waters. A low pres trof will strengthen along vanisl during the period...briefly causing winds to increase into the WA waters. The GFS/ECMWF/UKMET are all in pretty good agreement through 96 hours. After day 4 there are some timing differences with a weak frontal bndry fcst to move across the waters...although winds will still remain light in either case. Will continue to pop the wind grids using the 10m GFS throughout the period...GFS seems as good as any other model at this point.
Seas...enp has initialized pretty well across the waters...although W of the offshore waters it continues to run a couple of ft too high in srly flow inadv of next system. For the purposes of grids...enp is plenty good enough given the light and variable winds across the offshore area of the domain.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster Holley/Shaw. Ocean prediction center.