marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1200 PM PST Thu Jan 29 2015
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The ltst GOES WV imgry indc an upr rdg in the epac...and an upr low ovr the far se cal wtrs. The IR/vis imgry indc showery actvty with the upr low ovr the far se wtrs...and the se extent of the radar confirms the showers. As a result...planning on starting off with chance of rain for tngt.
Otrw...the upr low has helped with the dvlpmt of a sfc cstl trof... which is crntly interacting with a high pres rdg acrs the N ptn. Ascat wnds FM 18z indc nrly wnds alng the coast to abt 20 kt...and crnt sfc rprts indc abt the same invof the stgst pres grad. The 12z GFS/ECMWF winds are init OK when comapared with the data. The 12z mdls all indc a wk h5 vort wl reinforce the upr low tngt into tmw ngt...and slgtly strengthen the sfc trof...as the upr rdg W of the area starts to amplify. All of this is xpctd to lead to a slow incrs to the wind intnsty. The prev fcst flwd mdl trends and incrsd the wnds tngt into Fri to mainly 25 kt. This still looks rsnbl...so wl cont alng those lines in the next pkg.
The 12z GFS agree well with the 12z ECMWF thrut fcst pd on the overall pttn...and indc the rdg wl build ovr the area in the short term...then slowly shift to the E. The 12z mdls agree fairly well on the tmg of a cd fnt Sat...and the GFS has trended twd the rest of the guid FM the 06z run. The GFS/ecwmf also agree on a cpl of wk shrtwvs movg NE thru the far NW waters after the cdfnt passes inland sun and Mon...tho the assoc sfc bndrys are xpctd to be wk as well. In addiiton...the GFS/ecwmf agree well on the next low pres sys to aprch FM the SW late in the pd...tho the GFS is a bit stgr and indc gales. The 12z Gem/UKMET are out of sync with the consistent GFS/ecwmf...so attm preferring to cont FM before and use the GFS soln. However...wl use a 50/50 blend with the ECMWF to Iron out slgt diffs btwn the two. Wl also keep winds blo gl frc late Tue ngt...as confdc is low with lack of support FM the rest of the guid.
.Seas...Crnt seas are 8 ft and blo in the ofshr wtrs...and the 12z nww3 and ecwmf wam are init OK when compared with the data. The mdls differ only slgtly thrut the pd...so wl use a 50/50 blend of the two as a cmprms...and to better reflect wx mdl preferences.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster Kells. Ocean prediction center.