marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 106 am PST Wed Mar 4 2015
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The IR Sat img still indct almost clr skies with no lightng ovr the region. The radar also has no indc of tstms cells ovr the wtrs and even within its vcnty. At 0600z hgh pres 1029 mb cntrd nr 40n140w still has its ridge ovr the nrn wtrs with its se ridge axis passing W of the srn wtrs. Inland trof stretches alomg the coast from AZ thru CA and into the coast of oreg. Low pres 1011 mb se of the Aleutian Islands has a frnt passing W of the hgh pres noted above. Upstream is another hgh pres 1037 mb ovr cntrl pac. The pres grdnt is stll fairly slack ovr the region and the obsvd winds range btwn 10 and 20 kt. The latst r-scat pass at 0512z had no winds above 20 kt acrs the region.
An upprlvel ridge just W of the region has kept all the enrgy E of the wtrs xcpt for some enrgy from a back hangng inland upprlvl trof that strtches into the far srn wtrs inline with 20 kt winds and hghr seas noted above. Upperlvl ridge will shift E and be ovr the region thru the fcst prd. As such a mdl choice shud be one that will keep shifting winds mainly from N to SW up to 20 kt.
The glbl mdls hv contned to initialize well and they are still in decent agrmnt with just mnr diffs in the wind speed when low pres passes to the NW. Otherwise will contne with GFS. In the short term the hgh pres will remain anchored to the W and that will prevent frntl sysms from reaching the wtrs. As hgh pres shifts E...a frntl system will also move clsr to the wtrs but will still be blocked and stall thus will only allow the low pres to Glide NE and dispt NW of the region. Another low pres will dvlp on the qstnry frnt but that will be at the end of the fcst prd and will not be in the wtrs. As such the pres grdnt will remain relaxed thru the fcst prd and winds will not reach gale force threshold.
.Seas...The seas are hghst ovr the cntrl and srn wtrs peaking at 10 ft while they range btwn 4 and 6 ovr the nrn wtrs. The ltst Jason pass at 0322z actually missed the entire cntrl and srn region and indctd seas ranging btwn 4 and 7 ft ovr the nrn wtrs. Nww3 fits well with the obsvd seas pattern and has been quite consisttnt with the fcst seas. Nww3 is also close to the ecmwfwave and so will contne to stay close to it.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster musonda. Ocean prediction center.