Marine Weather for HS 102

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1226 am PDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

Summary...overall flow pattern across epac will be very stable for about the next three days as a ridge/trof combo prevails and produces the strongest pres grdt near the srn ore and nrn calif coastal wtrs. A cold front will move into the E into the ofshr wtrs Mon nite and temporarily weaken the pres grdt. On Tue and Tue nite after the front slides se into the cntrl calif wtrs and a strong hi builds along 140w...the winds will increase up into the 20 to 25 kt range in NW flow over the ofshr wtrs behind the front. The ridge/trof couplet is again expctd to produce another stg pres grdt on Wed and Wed nite near the srn ore and nrn calif coastal wtrs.

Models...00z Med rng mdls are in vry gud overall agreemnt across the cstl/ofshr wtrs thru the fcst prd...so the representative 00z GFS 30m soln will be used to populate the wind grids thru the entire fcst prd. Consensus of the Med rng mdls strongly suggests gale or near gale winds in a tight pres grdt off the nocal CST on Sat and Sat nite...then again on Wed into Wed nite.

Seas...enp version of the 00z wavewatch iii mdl initialized well and looks good thru most of the fcst prd. Will populate the sea ht grids using the 00z ww3 guidance for today thru Mon nite...then go with a 50/50 blend of 00z ww3/ECMWF wam for Tue thru Wed nite to resolve some minor diffs btwn these mdls.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz815...inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale tonight into sun.

.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale early today into sun.

$$

.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean prediction center.

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