marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 122 PM PDT Mon Sep 22 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Crnt GOES vis and IR imgry indc a wkng frntl bndry acrs the nrn ofshr wtrs...and earlier lgtng data indc a few strikes alng it...but have now passed inland. The imgry also indc a dvlpg low W of the ofshr wtrs...movg to the E. The 12z NCEP sfc analys and opc 24 hour sfc fcst indc the sys wl intnsfy ovr the next 24 hours...to hurcn frc by 12z tmw near 140w. The 12z mdls all indc a stg low W of the area...with a stg assoc h5 vort. The GFS has intensified slgtly with this low...so confdc slglty higher with the hrcn frc. All but the nrmly cnsrvtv 12z ecwmf indc at least storm frc at the sfc...tho the ECMWF does have 45 kt. However...the 12z ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET all indc btwn 70 and 80 kt at 925 mb at 12z Tue...and in the unstable envrmt hurcn frc shud mix. The 12z mdls all indc the assoc cd fnt wl mov into the ofshr wtrs Tue into Tue ngt. The sys still looks fairly stg at that point...and the GFS 30m winds show an area of mrgnl gales in the outer waters ahd of the frnt. The rest of the guid is smlr in intsty...tho evenly split on the gales. The extra enhancement of channeling flow btwn the frnt and the coast shud help to keep the wnds at gl frc. The prev fcst took a cmprms soln and went blo gl frc...and attm planning on bumping up the wnds slgtly to include wrng in outer wtrs...as confdc with the gales is MDT to hi attm.
Mdl diffs cont in the extended with the 12zs mdls...with the track of the next sys thru the ofshr wtrs. The 12z UKMET/ecwmf trended more N twd the GFS soln...and the 12z GFS was slgtly N of the 06z track. The GFS has been a bit more consistent...so preferring that soln for the next fcst. Also...the ECMWF is a bit of an outlier with the next frntl sys...and GFS/Gem/UKMET take a smlr track. Details are a bit sketchy...so wl favor the overall pttn of the GFS. Seas...the 12z mww3 and ECMWF wam are init within a ft or two of the crnt data. Bot hagree fairly well thrut the fcst pd...tho the mww3 is a ltl stgr...as a result of the stgr GFS wnds. Hurcn frc winds are fcst W of the ofshr wtrs...so 20 ft and greater are xpctd in pz5 and far NW pz6. The mww3 seems rsnbl with this...so wl genly flw.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Tue night into Wed. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Tue into Wed. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale Tue into Wed. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Tue into Tue night. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Tue into Tue night.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster Kells. Ocean prediction center.