marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 622 am PST Tue Jan 27 2015
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The 12z sfc analysis indicated a weakening cold front across the WA/OR/N CA waters...with weak low pres off the N CA coast. The 06z GFS was in very good agreement with the previous 00z models. Overall...expect quiet pattern to persist through the fcst period as any major systems will remain well W of the offshore waters. Will not be making any significant changes to the existing fcst for the morning update. The 12z sea state analysis indicated that observed seas were within a ft of the mww3 fcst values.
----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...
The IR Sat img still indc some conv clds ovr the nrn wtrs but no ligtng is ascctd with it and the radar has no tstms cells acrs the region. At 06z low pres 997 mb 300 nm N of the wtrs has a wk cld frnt strtchng S into the nrn wtrs then SW ovr the nrn CA wtrs. Weak hgh pres 1019 mb ovr the srn wtrs has a weak ridge covering the srn wtrs. The pres grdnt is farly relaxed ovr most of the region but just tight ovr the nrn wtrs where the Max obsvd winds are now 20 kt. The latst ascat pass at 0558z had winds to 20 kt ovr the nrn wtrs.
The uppr lvl suggest that there is some energy ovr the srn wtrs that is now thinning out while movng inland. Another upprl lvl trof will form ovr the srn wtrs twd the end of fcst prd. Otherwise shuld continue to be quiet and will have no wrngs in the frcst. The glbl mdls hav also initialized well and hav a good agrmnt on the few weak synop features ovr the region and so will just continue with GFS. In the short term the hgh pres ovr the srn wtrs will move se and be cntrd ovr the S-ern wtrs while another hgh pres moves to 36n138w from the SW. The low pres to the N will move NE inland. The resultant pres grdnt will still be slack and winds will remain below gale force.
.Seas...The seas range btwn 6 and 9 ft thru the region. The nww3 multi grid fits very well with the obsvd seas pattern and has been quite consstnt in the previous runs and so will stay close to it.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster kosier/musonda. Ocean prediction center.