HS 102

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1240 PM PDT sun 20 may 2012

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

Not too much in the way of changes for this forecast update. Still anticipate gales over portions of the pz06 waters Tue night through Fri.

A series of shortwaves will bring rain and scattered shra to the pz05 waters over the next couple days. Further to the S... thermal low invof socal/wrn Arizona in tandem with building hi pres to the W of pz06 waters over the next few days will bolster the Prospect for gales over parts of the pz06 waters by late Tue into Fri.

Models tend to show very good agreement into midweek. However...beyond then...two camps of solutions emerge. GFS/UKMET and ECMWF/Canadian/NAM. The latter Camp appears to be more progressive in nature as systems slide down the ern periphery of the retrograding ridge axis over the epac. This would certainly tend to bring below normal temps...rain and lower snow levels... etc into the pac NW and California. At this point though the net effect of all model solutions show nothing more than minimal gales for portions of the pz06 waters next week.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...none. .Cape Lookout to point St George...None.

.Pz6 California waters... .Pt St George to pt Arena...none. .Pt Arena to pt Conception...Gale Tue night thru Fri...MDT confdc. .Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...Gale Tue night thru Fri...MDT to hi confdc.

.Forecaster Lee. Ocean forecast branch.