marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 213 am PST Mon Feb 8 2016
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
06z ascat-a pass with good coverage returned winds of mostly 15 kt or less acrs the wtrs excp in far N where winds are S to se up to 20 kt closer to departed warm fnt N of area. It also shows a wk cstl trof which has extended FM CA CST nwd to Oregon CST. Otrw high pres rdg dominates. 00z GFS 10m winds are representative in S to se flow ptrn on W side of rdg. For seas...the 00z multigrid wwiii matches up well with obsvd seas ovr the pz6 and se pz5 wtrs...but is a couple of ft too high ovr outer pz5 wtrs...where 00z ECMWF wam is better. Used 00z ECMWF wam initially and into new first prd.
00z mdls are in good agrmt thru Tue night and then sloly diverge...espcly W of ofshr wtrs. High pres ovr inland areas had a sfc rdg extending W ovr nrn pz5 area and then extending S alg outer wtrs...and there is cstl trof mentioned abv. The high pres area rmns thru Mon aftn. By Tue the upr rdg that movs inland and amplifies ovr the wrn US into wrn Canada shud limit strength of sly winds ovr the WA/OR/nrn CA offshr wtrs. With good mdl agrmt near term will favor the 00z GFS 10m winds thru Tue night. Then by Wed GFS is too strong with winds with a cdfnt apchg the wtrs...then movg E into the wtrs. For Wed and Wed night will use a 50/50 blend of 00z GFS/ECMWF which nudges down the GFS winds...as ECMWF/UKMET are not as stg and are quicker with weakening the fnt as it attempts to mov ewd ovr the wtrs. For Thu into Fri ngt will favor 100 pct ECMWF for winds with that mdl closer to UKMET and Gem in bldg a rdg into the wtrs versus the GFS.
Seas...wl use 00z ECMWF wam for first period as it is better initially...then will use 50/50 blend of the 00z multigrid wwiii and ECMWF wam thru 12z Thu with seas acrs the offshr wtrs...then favor the ECMWF wam the rmndr of fcst pd.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... None.
.Forecaster Bancroft. Ocean prediction center.