Marine Weather for HS 101

Forecast

marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1254 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...and the SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas.

...Gulf of Mexico...

Model preference: latest GFS blended with previous official. Nwps and mwws blended for wave parameters. Med-high confidence.

An E to W ridge extends from the FL Big Bend to the TX coastal Bend. The eastern segment of the ridge will shift southward reaching just W of Tampa Bay by Thu...then the ridge will meander through the remainder of the period. A high pres center is likely to develop over the eastern Gulf along the ridge... mainly during the daylight hours as a N-S orientated heat trough forms over the FL peninsula during peak heating. The northern extension of a tropical wave will pass W through the Bay of Campeche this afternoon and tonight. The next tropical wave will reach the Yucatan Channel early Wed...and then pass through the Bay of Campeche on Thu and Thu night.

I noticed very little difference in the array of guidance thus blended small percent of latest GFS into previous grids. This synoptic pattern will maintain 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds across the Gulf waters N of 23n till Thu night when the southerly winds around the W periphery of the ridge will increase briefly to 10-15 kt along the se TX coast...then repeat again in the same area on Fri and Sat nights. Expecting NE-E 10 kt across the waters S of 23n except increasing to 15-20 kt along the W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the period.

...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...

Model preference: latest GFS blended with previous official. Nwps and mwws blended for wave parameters. Med confidence.

A tropical wave will pass through the SW Caribbean today and tonight and pass through the NW Caribbean on Wed with very little enhancement of convection. Strong NE-E trades will continue over the S-central Caribbean through the period with the nocturnal enhancement of near gale conditions expected each evening off the NW coast of Colombia. The exception being a small embedded patch of minimal gale winds are expected again tonight near 12n75w. Fresh trades will continue across the Gulf of Honduras...except increasing to 20-25 kt over the area S of 17n this evening...but not again till sun evening.

Looking further E the NHC forecast for Tropical Depression Two carries a 30 kt depression into the eastern portion of the tropical Atlc waters from 11.5n-17n E of 56w late tonight...then across tropical Atlc between 12-19n on Wed. The system is expected be weakening to a 25 kt remnant low as it moves across the leewards on Thu and continues to weaken to an open trough trough as it passes S of Puerto Rico on Fri.

...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...

Model preference: latest GFS blended with previous official. Nwps and mwws blended for wave parameters. Med confidence.

A ridge currently extending from 28n55w to NE FL will shift S to a position from 29n55w to central FL early Thu where it will meander through the remainder of the period. Southerly 10-15 kt flow is expected N of the ridge across the waters W of 65w through the period. Easterly trades to the S of the ridge are expected to continue at 10-15 kt except 15-20 kt along the N coast of Hispaniola and the eastern approach to the Windward Passage during the late night and early morning hours...but increasing to 20-25 kt late afternoons through about midnight each night through Thu night. The northern semicircle of the tropical depression will pass through the waters S of 21n between 62-66w on Thu night...and between 65-75w on Fri and Sat accompanied by a NE-E-se 15-20 kt wind shift.

$$

.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:

.Gulf of Mexico... None.

.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... .Amz031...Caribbean from 11n to 15n between 72w and 80w including Colombia basin... Gale Warning this evening through sunrise on Wed.

.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/abouttafbprod.Shtml#owf

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php

For additional information please visit: http://www.Hurricane warnings.Gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.

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