marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 125 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2015
Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...and the SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas.
...Gulf of Mexico...
Model preference: latest GFS blended with previous official which was a GFS/ECMWF blend. Latest nwps for waves. Medium confidence.
Entire Gulf of Mexico is under northerly flow behind a weak cold front spiraling around W periphery of Joaquin and now S of area. Expect another weak cold front/trough to sweep se across E Gulf on sun...and yet another on Mon...both maintaining W-NW-N 15-20 kt flow through Mon evening. Combined seas of 4-6 ft will subside to 1-3 ft by early Tue. A NW-se ridge will build from the TX coastal Bend to FL Bay on Tue and Wed with NE-E 10-15 kt flow expected along a wide swath from the NE Gulf to the S- central on Wed...with 5-10 kt NE flow forecast over the se waters...and NE-E 5-10 kt flow over the far NW portion near the ridge axis...and seas 2-3 ft throughout.
...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...
Model preference: latest GFS blended with previous official which was a GFS/ECMWF blend. Medium-high confidence.
Southerly flow continues to dominate Caribbean to the E of a weakening cold front/trough extending SW from E Cuba to Honduras...with NW 15 kt flow observed W of this boundary. Expect another weak front to move into the NW Caribbean tonight...but it will be considerably weaker with only 5-10 kt flow W of the boundary. Another trough expected over the NW Caribbean late Tue accompanied again by only a 5-10 kt W-NW wind shift. Further S...expect the current se-S flow to turn to the E at 15-20 kt across the se Caribbean this evening...with these conditions spreading W across the S-central Caribbean on Mon. Also expect the trades to begin the nocturnal increase to 20-25 kt along the N coast of Colombia beginning on Mon evening.
...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...
Model preference: latest GFS blended with previous official which was a heavy blend of ECMWF. Medium-high confidence.
Hurricane Joaquin began its acceleration to the NE. Several ship and buoy reports nailed down radius of 12 ft seas and NHC advisory were adjusted accordingly. As Joaquin lifts NNE expect large trapped fetch waves E of center to pass through Bermuda area. Low pres near 27.5n53w has estimated pres of 1006 mb and is drifting N. Latest scatterometer winds suggest winds have diminished below gale force over the N semicircle where the gradient is the tightest...thus warning dropped at 12 UTC this morning. Although there still is possibility for tropical development...model guidance weakens the gradient and expect only 15-20 kt flow over the N semicircle on sun. A surface low will move offshore to near 32n78w on Mon...then lift NE dragging a cold front across the waters N of the Bahamas on Mon night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas late Wed. Strong southerly winds will develop across the waters N of 28n well E of the front...and strong northerly winds are expected N of 27n behind front on Tue night into Wed.
.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Gulf of Mexico... None.
.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... none.
.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... .amz113...Atlantic from 27n to 31n between 70w and 77w... Hurricane Warning today into tonight. Tropical Storm Warning sun. .Amz115...Atlantic from 27n to 31n between 65w and 70w... Tropical Storm Warning today. Hurricane Warning tonight into sun. Tropical Storm Warning Sun night. .Amz117...Bahamas including cay sal bank... Tropical Storm Warning today. .Amz119...Atlantic from 22n to 27n E of Bahamas to 70w... Hurricane Warning today. Tropical Storm Warning tonight. .Amz121...Atlantic from 22n to 27n between 65w and 70w... Tropical Storm Warning today into tonight.
*For detailed zone descriptions please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/abouttafbprod.Shtml#owf
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php
For additional information please visit: http://www.Hurricane warnings.Gov/marine
.Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.