Marine Weather for HS 100

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 751 am EDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

No sig changes to the fcst anticipated attm.

Global models still highly uncertain with track of psbl trpcl cyclone to psbly affect the waters towards the end of the fcst period. With such low fcst confdc...will leave grids untouched for now and wait until 12z global models come in before making any changes.

Seas...wna version of wwiii within a ft or two of current obs.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

Over the short term...the new 00z mdls present no major fcst problems. The mdls share smlr fcst timing for a stnry front persisting W to E acrs the nt2 wtrs into early tonite...then drifting S as a cold front into the srn nt2 wtrs later tonite into Sat nite whl svrl weak frontal lows ripple E along the front. As a high pres ridge builds S in the vcnty of the new engld coast the 00z mdls all fcst a mod strong (primarily in the 15-25 kt range) ENE gradient to dvlp N of the front acrs the nt2 and srn most nt1 wtrs Sat/Sat nite. With their fcst gradients being very smlr plan on using a 50/50 blend of the 00z GFS 30m and 00z ECMWF bl winds thrut the short term. So as a result anticipate only minor short term chngs wl be made to the prev ofshr fcsts.

In the long range...the 00z global mdls gnrly agree that the cold front wl push S of the srn nt2 wtrs sun with the mod strong (15-25 kt) enely gradient overspreading all of the nt2 wtrs sun/sun nite and then persisting into Mon/Mon nite. Again with their fcst gradients rmng similar...plan on contg to use a 50/50 blend of the 00z GFS 30m and 00z ECMWF bl winds for sun thru Mon nite.

Then by Tue into Tue nite the disparity btwn the 00z global mdls conts in rgrds to their fcst tracks of the next potential tropical cyclone. Other than being slightly faster than its prev respective runs...the 00z GFS conts to fcst its psbl cyclone to track NNE just to the se of the nt2 wtrs by late Tue/Tue nite. The 00z Gem remains consistent in fcstg this system to track sigly further S and pass nr srn FL and into the Gulf of Mexico late Tue/Tue nite. The 00z UKMET fcst track is smlr to the 00z Gem but is even further S. Vs its prev 12z run which fcst the cyclone into the cntrl nt2 wtrs by Tue nite...the new 00z ECMWF has trended sigly slower and just fcsts its cyclone into the se most nt2 wtrs by late Tue nite which is smlr to the 00z GFS fcst timing...but further W. For now with very low fcst confidence... wl go with a compromise 00z GFS/ECMWF solution for this system and as a result wl cont to use a 50/50 blend of the 00z GFS 30m and 00z ECMWF bl winds for Tue/Tue nite.

.Seas...Since a 50/50 blend of the 00z GFS/ECMWF wl be used thrut...wl use a 50/50 blend of their respective 00z wavewatch iii and 00z ECMWF wam mdls thru Tue nite.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Nt1 New England waters... None.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... None.

$$

.Forecaster achorn/vukits. Ocean prediction center.

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