marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 905 am EDT Mon 17 Mar 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Low pres currently across the nrn nt2 waters continues to produce minimal gales across portions of the nrn and central nt2 waters. This low will move E of the offshore waters by tonight while another frontal wave moves NE into the central nt2 waters. The main low will then move across the srn nt2 waters by Tue with strong gales expected. A high pres ridge will then build across the offshore waters Wed. A weak cold front will enter the nt1 and nrn nt2 waters Wed night and early Thu...then move E of the area by late Thu. Winds up to 25 or 30 kt are expected with the passage of this front. Another high pres ridge will then build across the waters by Fri night. Current warnings look reasonable and few changes should be needed on the next offshore forecast.
For seas...will use a blend of the nww3 and the ECMWF wam.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...the differences btwn the 00z etss and 00z estofs mdls are negligible...tho both mdls may be underfcstg the positive surge along the mid Atlc coast today into Tue in the nely gradient N of the front.
Over the short term...an earlier 0131z ascat pass showed that nely gale force winds were present invof the Gulf Stream acrs the balt cnyn to hat cnyn and SW most balt cnyn to the Hague line wtrs N of a stnry front xtndg SW-NE acrs the cntrl/srn nt2 wtrs. The new 00z mdls to varying degrees gnrly agree that a series of srn stream sfc lows wl track NE along this front thru Tue nite...while strong high pres builds S into the nrn nt1 wtrs... maintaining a mod/strong nely gradient N of the front. For the first frontal low expected to race NE acrs the srn/cntrl nt2 wtrs today...the 00z GFS conts the trend FM its prev 18z run in fcstg a smwht mr sheared and weaker sfc low...which is in rsnbl agrmt with the other 00z mdls. Therefore wl favor the 00z GFS solution for today into tonite and wl cont to fcst mod to high confidence gales dvlpg thrut all of the nt2 wtrs early today (highest (up to 40 or 45 kt) invof the Gulf Stream acrs the NE most balt cnyn to hat cnyn and ern balt cnyn to the Hague line wtrs)...bcmg subgale thrut tonite. So no major immed short term chngs are planned to the prev ofshr fcsts.
Then on Tue...in response to the last srn stream upr S/W trof racing ofshr...the 00z mdls hv converged twds a smlr solution for the last ascd srn stream dvlpg sfc low to track NE acrs the srn nt2 wtrs. Noting its precip fcsts...suspect that the 00z GFS is having sm convective feedback problems which are resulting in it fcstg too strong a sfc low. Therefore...for now wl not buy off on the storm force ascd bl winds fcst by the 00z GFS immed E of its fcst sfc low. Therefore wl instead use a blended 00z Gem/UKMET/ECMWF solution for the fcst gradients ascd with this system and wl cap its Max ascd winds up to 35 or 40 kt smlr to the prev nt2 fcst. Then Tue nite as all of the 00z mdls fcst a high pres ridge to bld invof the E coast wl cont to fcst subgale winds dvlpg thrut all of the nt2 wtrs. So overall no sig short term chngs are planned for the next ofshr fcst package.
In the long range...the 00z mdls remain in good agrmt that the high pres ridge wl slide ofshr Wed with lite winds dvlpg thrut all of the cstl/ofshr wtrs. Then wl use a blended 00z GFS/ECMWF solution...which is sprtd by the 00z UKMET...for a cold front movg ofshr Wed nite and passing se acrs the wtrs Thu with Max ascd winds gnrly up to 25 or 30 kt smlr to the prev ofshr fcsts. Wl then cont to use a compromise 00z GFS/ECMWF solution for a high pres ridge movg ofshr on Fri. So no major long range chngs are planned to the prev ofshr fcsts.
Seas...as per its normal bias...the 00z wavewatch iii has initialized too low the gale force nely gradient acrs the cntrl nt2 wtrs. Therefore to start with higher fcst seas wl use a 50/50 blend of the 00z wavewatch iii and the higher 00z ECMWF wam. Wl then lkly cont to use a 50/50 blend of the two mdls thru Fri.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz084...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale today. .Anz094...Baltimore Canyon to Hague line... gale today. Gale Tue into Tue night. .Anz085...Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... gale today. Gale Tue into Tue night. .Anz086...Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale today. Gale Tue into Tue night. .Anz088...Cape Fear to 31n... gale today. Gale Tue.
.Forecaster nolt/vukits. Ocean prediction center.
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