marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 406 am EDT Fri Sep 19 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Conv clds are is still confined to the srn wtrs and E of the region along frntl bndry. Lghtng is still concentrated ovr the areas spanning from inland to the wtrs adj to GA and SC states. At 19/06z Tropical Storm Edouard near 39.9n 38.9w. See the NHC for the latest information. Inland low pres ovr the mid Atlc states has trof xtndg NE and SW. A cld frnt strtches from low pres ovr Canada and passes acrs the nt1 wtrs. E of the cntrl region is another low pres 1009 mb with a trof xtndg W into the balt cynyn wtrs. The pres grdnt is very slack and Max obs winds are 20 kt. The latst ascat pass at 0224z had no winds above 20 kt acrs the region.
The glbl mdls seem to agree on most of the features in the short term but hv a problem on the path of the low pres that will approach the region from the S sun. Depending on the path each mdl takes...that will dictate the winds strength ovr the wtrs. GFS and CMC hv both kept the low path ovr the wtrs and hv winds reaching gale force while the ecmwfhr and UKMET hv been quite weak but they hv now indctd elevated winds with the 00z run.
Tho there are mdl discrpcies at the sfc...they seem to converge well aloft. There is an upperlevel trof just W of the region that has locally indcd energy that will help the frntl bndry curr W of the region to move E acrs the wtrs in the short term. Mdls show that there will be some more energy that will slide over area of hgh pres and combine with some sigfcnt energy frm the NW early next week ovr the region. This senario still supports the strengthening of the synop sys ovr the region. So in the short term the cld frnt ovr the nrn wtrs will keep moving E while low pres will move E acrs the cntrl region. The pres grdnt will remain slack and winds will remain below gale force. In the xtndd prd wrngs will be contnd as the mdls are now converging at making the low pres from the S pass ovr the ern wtrs.
.Seas...They range btwn 3 and 6 ft acrs the fcst wtrs. The last Jason pass was at 1842z thru the cntrl rgion and missed the rst of the nrn and srn wtrs and it indctd seas with 6 ft peaks. The nww3 multi grid WV mdl fits well with the obsvd seas pattern and is close to the ecmwfwave...so will stay with nww3. Seas will build to 9 ft ovr the N-ern wtrs in NE swell then subside in the short term. Seas will build over the srn wtrs and spread NE to 15 ft in the xtdd prd.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... .anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale possible sun.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... gale possible sun. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... gale possible sun.
.Forecaster musonda. Ocean prediction center.