marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 319 am EDT sun Jul 5 2015
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Summary...00z NCEP sfc analysis shows a stnry fnt extdng NE to SW across the nrn nt2 wtrs...with a low pres cntr alg the fntl bndry near zone 905. A hi pres rdg extnds E to W across Bermuda and towards the nt2 area. The stnry fnt and the rdg are interacting to produce W to SW flow across the nt2 wtrs tonite. Latest ascat passes from 0156z to 0159z tonite were showing SW winds 25 to 30 kt over the se part of zone 910. Lightning density product data at 07z indicates a band of sct showers/tstms across the nrn and cntrl nt2 wtrs in the SW flow.
Models...the 00z Med rng mdls are in gud overall agreemnt across the ofshr wtrs durg the fcst prd...except there are some timing diffs with a weak cold fnt movg se over the nt1 area Wed nite thru Thu nite. Also the mdls seem to be agreed that there will be a weak low or lows tracking NE alg the front...but there are timing diffs with the low as well. 00z Gem looks like an outlyer soln for Thu and Thu nite...because it is faster and slower with the main low. Last few runs of the GFS hv shown vry gud consistency...and the representative 00z GFS 30m soln will be used for the wind grids. Am not planning to make signif changes to the current fcst trend.
.Seas...Wna version of the 00z wavewatch iii mdl will be used to populate the sea ht grids thru the entire fcst prd...since the 00z GFS mdl is being favored and the 00z wavewatch mdl has vry gud support from the 00z ECMWF wam.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... None.
.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean prediction center.