Marine Weather for HS 100

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 923 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

At 00z...sfc low was loc near 36n75w with cold front extending SW from the low to near 31n77w. Ltgng dtctn shows sct convection along the cold front. Within about 300 nm N and W of the low... winds are N to NE 15 to 25 kt...except are likely reaching 30 kt nr the low center. These winds are 5 to 10 kt strnger then the 12z and 18z GFS 30m winds...esp FM about Hudson Canyon down to Cape Fear...and will be adjusted upwards in the next model update. NE of the low...warm front extends NE to near 41n60w. Otherwise...the 18z GFS model was consistent with previous runs...through it is a lttl strngr with winds on the immed back side of sfc low Sat ngt and is hinting at hurcn force winds just S of httrs canyon. Will hold off on incrsng the warning catagory for now...but wl consider it in the fcst fcst update if the trend continues.

Seas...like the winds...are higher then model guess N and W of the low center...on the avg of 1 to 2 ft and wl be boosted upwards on the fcst update.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF are now coming into better agreement with the pattern off the E coast the next few days. Developing low pres currently across the srn nt2 waters will move NE today and tonight. Gale conditions are still expected to develop across the nrn nt2 and portions of the nt1 waters by Sat in the NE flow ahead of the low. This initial low will then move into the New England offshore waters by Sat night while weakening. A second stronger low is still expected to develop near the Carolina coast Sat and track NE into the nt1 waters by early sun. Still expect storm conditions to develop across the srn and central nt2 waters by late Sat and continue into Sat night. Storm conditions are also expected to develop across the nrn nt1 waters by sun before diminishing by Sun night as the low moves NE away from the offshore waters. High pres will then dominate the pattern across the offshore waters through the remainder of the forecast period. For the wind grids will use 12z GFS 10m winds through early Sat and then use 12z GFS 30m winds Sat through Mon night. Current warnings look reasonable and few changes should be needed on the next offshore forecast.

The wavewatch model looks reasonable with the seas and will be followed fairly closely during the forecast period.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...In the wake of the strong second sfc low Sat/Sat nite prefer the higher negative surge fcst by the 12z estofs vs the 12z etss mdl. Further N the 12z estofs and 12z etss mdls fcst smlr positive surges dvlpg along the nrn mid Atlc and srn new engld coasts Sat into sun which look representative.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Nt1 New England waters... .anz800...Gulf of Maine... gale Sat into Sat night. Storm Sat night into sun. Storm possible sun into Sun night. .Anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale Sat into Sat night. Storm Sat night into sun. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz900...Georges Bank east of 68w... gale tonight into Sat. Storm Sat night into sun. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz810...South of New England... gale Sat into sun. .Anz815...South of Long Island... gale Sat into sun. Gale possible sun into Sun night.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale Sat into sun. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz915...Hudson Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Sat into sun. .Anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Sat night. Storm Sat night into sun. Gale possible sun into Mon. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale Sat night. Storm Sat night into sun. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... storm Sat night into sun. .Anz825...Inner waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light... gale Sat night into sun. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz828...Inner waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light... storm Sat night. Gale Sat night into sun. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... storm Sat night into sun. Gale possible sun into Mon. .Anz830...Inner waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras... storm Sat night. Gale Sat night into sun. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz833...Inner waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear... gale Sat. Storm Sat night. Gale Sat night into sun. .Anz930...Outer waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale Sat. Storm Sat night. Gale Sat night into sun. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz835...Inner waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale Sat. Storm Sat night. .Anz935...Outer waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale Sat. Storm Sat night.

$$

.Forecaster prosise/nolt. Ocean prediction center.

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