Marine Weather for HS 100

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 752 am EST Fri Feb 12 2016

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

No major changes are planned for the morning update. The 06z GFS was very similar to the previous 00z model runs through the short term period...with differences appearing early next week. The 06z GFS is nearly identical to the 00z run with the strong low fcst to move off the se coast today...then move E of the srn nt2 waters this evening. The current warning headlines also look very good...and will not be making any changes. Looking ahead to early next week...the 06z GFS has trended much more progressive with the low fcst to track NE along the mid Atlantic and New England states Tue into Tue night. In fact...the GFS is even more progressive than the 00z UKMET/Gem. Plan on staying with model consensus and will also not make any changes to grids for long term fcst. The latest sea state analysis indicated that observed seas were still a few ft higher than the ww2 values and closer to the ECMWF wam.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

Over the short term...in ascn with low pres se of Nova Scotia...earlier 0204z and 0111z hi resolution ascat-b and ascat-a scatterometer passes respectively confirmed that wnwly gales were present thrut the entire nt1 wtrs (prevly was not overly confident that these gales wuld spread as far N as the Gulf of Maine but contd with the gale wrng there) and the nrn nt2 wtrs. Per a consensus of the new 00z mdls this low is expected to mov far enuf E that these gale force winds shuld be E of the ofshr wtrs by the start of the today fcst period.

Then the focus shifts swd as the 00z mdls overall are in excellent agrmt that a dvlpg sfc low wl mov off the se coast this mornning and track NE acrs the srn and outermost cntrl nt2 wtrs later today into tonite. In rgrds to the fcst strength of this low...while all of the 00z mdls fcst it to strengthen into a storm the question is whether it wl reach storm strength before it exits the ern nt2 wtrs. Per the consistent ascd 30m bl winds fcst by the 00z NAM/GFS...wl cont to fcst marginal storm force winds dvlpg acrs the outer portions of nt2 zones anz925 and anz930. So overall do not plan on making any major chngs to the prev ofshr fcsts rgrdg this system.

Then in the wake of this low...in response to a strong closed upr low fcst to track se into new engld Sat...then acrs the nrn wtrs Sat nite...the 00z mdls all fcst an ascd scndry cold front to sweep se acrs the wtrs with a reinforcing shot of the strongest cold air advection and most intense negative static stability of the winter so far dvlpg in a nnwly gradient thrut much of the wtrs and then contg into sun. Early sun immedly in the wake of the upr low passing acrs the nrn wtrs...by fcstg a weak ascd sfc low or sfc trof passing S of Nova Scotia...per the 00z NAM/GFS/Gem it stil looks close as to whether this gradient wl strengthen to storm force acrs the ern most nt1 wtrs. For now with the 00z UKMET/ECMWF maintaining a weaker gradient there...for now wl cont to fcst strong gale force winds up to 40-45 kt. Also further S late Sat into early sun cannot completely rule out storm force winds dvlpg in this gradient invof the Gulf Stream acrs the nt2 wtrs. But for now wl cont to fcst strong gale force winds there. Therefore for this gradient...smlr to what was used prevly...plan on populating with a 60/40 blend of the 00z GFS 30m and 00z ECMWF bl winds for Sat thru sun nite...boosted up 10 percent on avg late Sat thru sun when the peak negative static stability is fcst.

In the long range...after the 00z mdls all agree that conds wl dmnsh as high pres blds ofshr late sun into Mon the focus shifts to the fcst dvlpmnt of another potentially potent sfc low afctg the wtrs late Mon into Tue nite. In rgrds to the fcst track of this system...vs its prev 18z run...the 00z GFS fcsts a smlr track for its dvlpg sfc low movg into the Carolinas Mon nite...NE nr the mid Atlc coast Tue...then NNE acrs new engld Tue nite. The due to a lack of ascd individual ensemble members...no strong conclusions about the 00z GFS can be drawn FM the 00z gefs mean. The 00z UKMET/global Gem fcst smlr...but slightly mr progressive tracks as the 00z GFS. The 00z ECMWF...which prevly was mr progressive...now fcsts a track that is nrly identical to the 00z GFS. Therefore wuld favor a blended 00z GFS/ECMWF track. In rgrds to the fcst gradients ascd with this system...tho their is a dearth of ascd individual ensemble members...if anything can be drawn FM the 00z gefs mean is that the 00z GFS solution may be too strong. Therefore as a compromise...plan on populating with a 50/50 blend of the 00z GFS 10m and 00z ECMWF bl winds Mon thru Tue nite for this system. So the biggest chng to the prev ofshr fcsts that this blend wl dictate...wl be to now introduce psbl storm wrngs for the outer nt2 wtrs...mainly nr the Gulf Stream late Tue/Tue nite...and for the Gulf of Maine wtrs Tue nite.

Seas...in the current strong wnwly gradient over the nrn wtrs...the 00z wavewatch iii has initialized the current seas slightly too low...whl the 00z ECMWF wam is slightly too high. Expect a smlr trend wl dvlp btwn the two mdls for the strong nwly gradient fcst to dvlp Sat thru sun. Therefore as a compromise...plan on populating our fcst wave grids with a 50/50 blend to the two wave mdls thrut the entire fcst period. Smlr to the fcst winds...wl boost up this blend 10-15 percent late Sat thru sun.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...in the strong offshore flow fcst to dvlp in the nwly gradient FM the mid Atlc coast nwd along the new engld coast Sat into sun...the 00z estofs conts to fcst a mr sig negative surge to dvlp than fcst by the 00z etss. Stil believe a compromise btwn the two mdls wl lkly verify best.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Nt1 New England waters... .anz800...Gulf of Maine... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible sun. Storm possible Tue night. .Anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible sun. Gale possible Tue into Tue night. .Anz900...Georges Bank east of 68w... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible sun. Gale possible Tue night. .Anz810...South of New England... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible sun. Gale possible Tue into Tue night. .Anz815...South of Long Island... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible sun. Gale possible Tue into Tue night.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible sun. Gale possible Tue into Tue night. .Anz915...Hudson Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible sun. Gale possible Tue. Storm possible Tue night. .Anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible sun. Storm possible Tue into Tue night. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible sun. Gale possible Tue. Storm possible Tue night. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible sun. Gale possible Tue. Storm possible Tue night. .Anz825...Inner waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible sun. Gale possible Tue into Tue night. .Anz828...Inner waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon night into Tue night. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... storm tonight. Gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible sun. Storm possible Tue. Gale possible Tue night. .Anz830...Inner waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon night into Tue night. .Anz833...Inner waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear... gale today into tonight. Gale possible Mon night into Tue night. .Anz930...Outer waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale today. Storm tonight. Gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Tue into Tue night. .Anz835...Inner waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale today into tonight. Gale possible Mon night into Tue. .Anz935...Outer waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale today into tonight. Gale possible Tue.

$$

.Forecaster kosier/vukits. Ocean prediction center.

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