HS 100

marine weather discussion NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 140 am EST sun 12 Feb 2012

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

Over the short term...in the wake of the strong sfc low now nr Nova Scotia...latest sfc obs and recent ascat passes indicate that gale force ascd winds hv overspread all of the cstl/ofshr wtrs attm...with storm force winds lkly invof the Gulf Stream btwn balt cnyn and hat cnyn. The new 00z are in rsnbly good agrmt that the strong low pres wl race off to the NE later this morning...flwd by another strong frontal wave dvlpg this afternoon se of Nova Scotia...then movg off to the NE tonite alwg the strong wnwly gradient acrs the cstl/ofshr wtrs to gradly weaken. As was done prevly...plan on using a blended 00z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF solution for this wkng gradient and as a result do not anticipate making any sig timing and/or areal coverage chngs to the prevly fcstd wrngs (stil bcmg subgale thrut by sun nite) and wl just make minor tweaks to the ascd conds.

In the long range...Tue nite/Wed...in response to a weak negatively tilted upr S/W trof movg ofshr...the 00z GFS rmns consistent in fcstg a series of ascd weak sfc lows to track NE acrs the nt2 wtrs whl pulling a weak ascd cold front acrs the wtrs. The 00z gefs mean and 00z ECMWF gnrly sprt this 00z GFS solution. Therefore plan on using a blended 00z GFS/ECMWF solution for this system and smlr to the prev nt2 fcst wl broadbrush with Max ascd fcst winds to 20 or 25 kt.

Then on Thu...vs its prev respective runs...the 00z GFS is now mr progressive and fcsts a cold front to push off the mid Atlc coast late Thu. The 00z gefs indicates that the 00z GFS is too fast with this fropa. With the other 00z global mdls also slower...wl not fcst this front to mov ofshr Thu. Overall wl favor the 00z ECMWF solution on Thu and as a result wl lkly tweak up the prevly fcstd sswly prefrontal winds slightly (fm 20 kt to 25 kt) by late Thu.

Seas...other than initializing the seas slightly too low attm... overall the 00z wavewatch iii fcst seas look representative and wl not be deviated FM sigly. Tho on Thu since a less progressive solution than the 00z GFS wl be favored...wl lkly use the 00z ECMWF wam fcst seas.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:

.Nt1 New England waters .Gulf of Maine...Gale today...high confdc. .Georges Bank...Gale today into tonite...high confdc. .S of New England...Gale today into tonite...high confdc.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters .Hudson to balt cnyn...Gale today into tonite...high confdc. .Balt cnyn to Hague line...Gale today into tonite...high confdc. .Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...Gale today into tonite...except storm early today near Gulf Stream...high confdc. .Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...Gale today...high confdc. .Cape Fear to 31n...Gale today...high confdc.

.Forecaster vukits. Ocean forecast branch.