marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 200 PM EST Wed 4 Dec 2013
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
...corrected warnings summary section...
14z and 15z ascat overpasses returned winds up to 25 kt over offshr waters S of Hatteras cnyn assoc with weak inland low pres and stnry frnt alng and off the coast near Cape Lookout. These 25 kt winds are slightly hier than what mdls showing. Overall 12z mdls are in above avg agreement in the W Atlc over the next few days. Sntry front will slowly lift N as warm front thru mid Atlc wtrs tngt into Thu...and new engl waters later Thu/Thu ngt. Based on ascat will adjust winds about 5 kt hier for early overngt period as 12z GFS/NAM/UKMET do not show any 25 kt winds assoc with front until later tngt. 12z GFS/UKMET and 00z ECMWF are in good agreement with timing of cold front Fri. 12z NAM and 12z global Gem are slightly faster than above mdl consensus. 12z GFS trended a bit weaker with pre frontal winds Fri and Fri ngt from its previous run. Will await the 12z hi res ECMWF but at this time am leaning toward maintaining marginal gales only over balt cnyn to Hague line waters as still some potential for a brief period Fri ngt into Sat over glf stream. 12z UKMET was consistent with 30 kt over this area...and its sfc winds even in stable SW flow are often times a bit underdone when compared to ascat. Have moderate forecast confidence at best with these gales tho.
Front shud stall over srn mid Atlc offshr waters late Sat and mdls all indicate that shud lift N as another warm front sun into Mon. 12z GFS looks reasonable with timing and is strongly supported by 00z ECMWF. 12z UKMET is outlier in dvlpg the wave along warm front and movg rapidly E of new engl waters Mon... while 12z global Gem appears much too aggressive with its triple pt dvlpmnt. With decent agreement between 12z GFS and 00z/12z ECMWF will continue to populate with 12z GFS 10m winds sun/Mon. There is a chance for some gales N of warm front mainly over nern mid Atlc and new engl waters late sun into Mon...as well as ahead of cold front late Mon. But will wait for a few more consistent runs before adding any late day4/day5 gales.
Max sig WV hgts over S quad of storm force low near Newfoundland island this afternoon are about 6 to 8 ft hier than 12z mww3 indicating...as buoy 44141 has reported 31 ft Max past couple hrs. In addition buoy 44037 over nern glf of ME reported 8 ft at 16z which is a couple ft hier than mww3. The 00z ECMWF wave mdl altho hier than 12z mww3 still appears a couple ft low as well. Over the forecast period plan to go with a 50/50 blend of mww3 and ECMWF wave mdl.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Warnings...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Nt1 New England waters... .Gulf of Maine...none. .Georges Bank...None. .South of New England...None.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon...none. .Baltimore Canyon to Hague line...Gale Fri ngt .Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon...None. .Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear...None. .Cape Fear to 31n...None. $$
.Forecaster Clark. Ocean prediction center.
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NOT FOR NAVIGATION. DO NOT RELY ON THIS DATA FOR DECISIONS THAT CAN RESULT IN HARM TO ANYONE OR ANYTHING.