marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 845 am EDT Wed 12 Mar 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Forecast confidence with offshore gales tngt thru Thu ngt is well above avg as most recent mdls remain in very good agreement with strong fropa. Have less forecast confidence with winds reaching storm force but given strength of caa allowing enhanced mixing over glf stream will maintain over balt cnyn to Hague line waters like in previous nt2 forecast. Scattered tstms occuring ahead of upper shrtwv moving off NE FL/GA coast tda shud continue as day GOES on. More organized line of tstms likely to move off mid Atlc coast (nj/Delmarva/srn va) early this evening ahead of cold front. Cold shelf waters in 4c to 7c range shud limit destabilization as line moves off the coast but still some potential for higher gusts over these mid Atlc zones. In the Med range 06z GFS like the 00z UKMET remained suppressed with any coastal low dvlpmnt late in the weekend. Conversely 00z ECMWF was consistent with its previous run tracking dvlpg sfc low alng glf stream late sun into Mon. With this mornings update will not be making significant adjustments to previous nt1/nt2 forecasts at days 3 thru 5. 06z multigrid wavewatch iii sig WV hgts have been in good agreement with W Atlc ship/buoy obs over past few hrs. With strong fropa tngt into Thu ngt the 00z ECMWF wave mdl is generally 3 ft hier than past couple runs of mww3. Will continue with 50/50 blend to account for these differrences.
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Over the short term...overall the 00z mdls are in excellent agrmt in fcstg a dvlpg sfc low to move to the vcnty of New Jersey by late today (13/00z)...then pass NE acrs the nt1 wtrs tonite into early Thu while pulling a strong cold front ofshr. Since it has the support of the other 00z mdls and the 00z gefs...overall wl use the 00z GFS solution for the fcst track and fropa timing of this system. In regards to the fcst strength of the ascd fcst gradients...in advance of the low and front overall wl favor the 00z GFS 10m bl winds today into tonite. Then behind the low and in the wake of the cold front later tonite into early Fri wl favor the 00z GFS 30m bl winds...but due to the strong cold air advection and strong negative static stability wl enhance these GFS 30m winds smwht invof the Gulf Stream acrs the nt2 wtrs. So since the 00z GFS solution is very smlr to the prev fcst guidance used...with mod/hi fcst confidence do not plan on making any sig timing and/or areal coverage chngs to the prevly fcstd wrngs for this system and wl just make minor modifications to the ascd fcst conds based on the 00z mdl guidance.
In the long range...the latest mdls remain in good agrmt on Fri that high pres wl build ofshr flwd by modly strong (gnrly up to 20-25 kt) sswly return flow dvlpg acrs the nt1 and nrn/cntrl nt2 wtrs late Fri. On Sat wl use a blended 00z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF (with a bias twds the 00z ecmwf) for a weak cold front movg ofshr acrs the nrn wtrs. So no major long range chngs are planned to the prev ofshr fcst package on Fri/Sat.
Then on sun the disparity btwn the 00z global mdls increases. The 00z GFS/UKMET gnrly remain consistent vs their prev respective runs in just fcstg the cold front to cont swd acrs the nt2 wtrs flwd by strong high pres building in FM the NW causing a moderately strong nly gradient to dvlp thrut much of the ofshr wtrs. The 00z Gem/ecwmf tho fcst the front to hang up further N acrs the nt2 wtrs and then fcst a sig frontal wave(s?) To move NE off se coast Sun night with wdspread ascd gale force bl winds dvlpg. For now...with low fcst confidence...since it is mr in line with the latest wpc medium range guidance wl favor the 00z ECMWF solution for sun. But due to the 00z global mdl disparity wl tone down the 00z ECMWF solution smwht and for now wl keep the ascd fcst winds subgale.
Seas...the 00z wavewatch iii has initialized the current seas well and its fcst seas look representative thrut the short term. Tho as was done prevly...wl likely use a 50/50 00z wavewatch iii and 00z ECMWF wam mdl blend thru the short term which wl result in slightly higher seas than fcst by the 00z wavewatch iii alone...especly in the cold air advection in the wake of the dvlpg sfc low and cold fropa tonite into Fri. Then in the long range wl gradly and progressively put more weight on the 00z ECMWF wam fcst seas...especly on sun.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...in the wake of the dvlpg sfc low and cold fropa...the 00z estof remains consistent in fcstg a mr sig negative surge to dvlp by tonite into Fri from S to N along the coasts than fcst by the 00z etss...which based on the 00z GFS solution does not look unreasonable.
.Warnings...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Nt1 New England waters... .anz081...Gulf of Maine... gale tonight into Thu night. .Anz082...Georges Bank... gale tonight into Thu night. .Anz083...South of New England... gale tonight into Thu night.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz084...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale tonight into Thu night. .Anz094...Baltimore Canyon to Hague line... gale tonight. Storm Thu. Gale Thu night. .Anz085...Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... gale tonight into Thu night. .Anz086...Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale tonight into Thu. .Anz088...Cape Fear to 31n... gale tonight.
.Forecaster Clark/vukits. Ocean prediction center.
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