HS 100

marine weather discussion NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 145 am EST Tue 10 Nov 2009

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

Update...after looking at the 00z ECMWF...have decided to not incr winds to gale force in the srn nt1 waters for Thu into Fri as the ECMWF has high center further S than prev run.

00z glbl models coming into more of an agrmt with potental low pres development off the se US coast Wed night and Thu. 00z GFS/UKMET and 12z/09 ECMWF all in good agrmt with system thru 72 hrs...with models then diverging somewhat thereafter. GFS continues to then drift low to the N while the UKMET keeps system surpressed to the S...altho does move system more to the N after 120 hr. GFS ensemble mean track very close to the 12z/09 ecwmf track thru the fcst period. So unless 00z ECMWF comes in with a different solution than its prev runs...will continue to trend towards the ECMWF for this pacakge.

As for winds...still concern for the counterflow against the glf stream across the nrn nt2 waters Thu into Fri. With GFS continuing to show storm force bl winds...and both the UKMET and ECMWF showing 40 to 45 kt sfc winds across the nrn nt2 waters during this time period...have decided to pull the trigger and bump winds up to storm in the glf stream for the balt cany to Hatteras waters for Thu and psbly into Fri. Am tempted to incr winds to storm for the glf stream for the Balt canyon to Hague line waters as well but will bump them up to 45 kt for now. Also a concern for the srn nt1 waters where even the srn UKMET/ECMWF showing gales possibly moving into the area Thu and Fri. Will go ahead and bump winds up to gale for the srn portions of the nt1 waters for Thu into Fri. As for the remainder of the headlines...will leave as is for now...but would like to see the 00z ECMWF before making any final decisions.

Seas...ww3 looks reasonable across the cstl/offshr waters when compared to latest sfc obs. Will gnrly follow guidance thru the first 72 hours of the fcst since GFS track close to preferred ECMWF track. After that...will deviate from guidance a bit due to the different tracks of the low.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Nt1 New England waters... .Gulf of Maine...none. .Georges Bank...None. .S of New England...None.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .Hudson to balt cnyn...gale Wed into Fri...MDT to hi confdc. .Balt cnyn to Hague line...Gale Wed into Sat...MDT to hi confdc. .Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...Gale Wed into Sat...MDT to hi confdc...with storm in glf strm Thu...low to MDT confdc. .Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...Gale Wed night thru Fri...low to MDT confdc. .Cape Fear to 31n...Gale Wed night thru Fri...low to MDT confdc.

.Forecaster achorn. Ocean forecast branch.