marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 720 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Summary...strengthening low pres will move NE across the glf of Maine tonight...then pass NE over Nova Scotia Thu and Thu nite. A high pres ridge will move E toward the area Fri into Fri nite...build over the waters Sat into Sat nite...then pass NE of the area sun and sun nite. Developing low pres will move off the South Carolina coast late Sat...then slowly drift NE across the nt2 area Sat nite thru Mon nite while pulling a cold fnt E into the nt2 wtrs.
Models...the Med rng mdls are in gud overall agreemnt across the ofshr wtrs thru Fri nite...so the GFS will be used to populate the wind grids for this timeframe. However...the Med rng mdls have been showing poor run to run consistency over the past few runs regarding the dvlpg coastal lows this weekend...and they are not in gud agreemnt concerning timing/strength/trajectory of the dvlpg coastal lows during the sun thru Mon nite prd. So in an attempt to smooth out these diffs will be using a 50/50 blend of last two runs of the ECMWF for Sat thru Mon nite...since the ECMWF has gud support from the latest wpc Med rng fcstr guidance.
Seas...the multigrid ww3 mdl guidance may be underdone by 1 or 2 ft initially in the glf of Maine...but overall the mww3 mdl looks reasonable over the ofshr wtrs for tonite thru Fri nite. Given that the ECMWF is the preferred mdl for Sat thru Mon nite...the ECMWF wam will be used to populate the sea ht grids for this prd.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...With ofshr winds over next couple days both estofs and etss show a negative surge with estofs in 1.0 to 1.5 ft range from VA CAPES to marthas vyd tonite thru Fri. Etss is less negative with surge values up to 1.0 ft. A blend of these two models is preferred.
.Nt1 New England waters... .anz800...Gulf of Maine... gale tonight into Thu. .Anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale tonight into Thu. .Anz900...Georges Bank east of 68w... gale tonight into Thu. .Anz810...South of New England... gale tonight into Thu.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz915...Hudson Canyon to the great South Channel... gale tonight into Thu. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale today into Thu. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... gale today. Gale Thu.
.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean prediction center.