For southeast sector of Metarea VII, prepared by reunion, see area 2 below.
Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.
Area 1: ====== forecast valid from 041000 to 051000 utc:
Wind in knots, wave heights in meters. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.
Gale warnings: ============== 1. Marion forties east: NW to W 35 in the south by the second half of the period.
Synoptic situation at 06:00z ============================ high 1030 hpa 43s14w high 1030 hpa 33s00e high 1030 hpa 23s28e. Low 1018 hpa 44s05e low 998 hpa 51s19e low 1018 hpa 34s32e
1. Cold front: 38s05w 40s01e into 44s05e 45s10e into 51s19e into 62s18e0.
Area forecast: ==============
Cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e) wind : cyclonic 15 to 25 in the North-Western interior, otherwise SW to W 10 to 20 but variable 05 in the west. It will become S to se 10 to 20 in the South-West but E to NE 10 to 15 in the extreme north-west by the second half of the period. Vis : good but moderate to poor in showers in the North-Western interior. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5m in the south-east at first, SW swell.
Durban east (25s/32.5s, East Coast/55e) wind : NE to E 05 to 10 in the extreme North-East, otherwise NW to W 10 to 20, but se to E 15 to 25 in the extreme northern interior. Vis : good but moderate in showers and rain in the east. Sea state: 3.0 to 3.5m, SW swell.
Mozambique channel: wind : NE to E 05 to 15 in the extreme South-West, otherwise S to se 10 to 20. Vis : moderate to poor in showers and rain. Sea state: 3.0m in the extreme south-east by the end of the period, SW swell.
Madagascar east: wind : E to NE 15 to 25 in the extreme south, otherwise S to se 20 to 25. Vis : moderate to poor in showers and rain in places. Sea state: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south by the second half of the period, SW swell.
Marion forties east: (40s/50s, 35e/50e) wind : S to SW 15 to 25, reaching 30 in the east. It will become NW 25 to 35 by the second half of the period, spreading to the extreme east and North-East, otherwise S to SW 25 to 35 by the end of the period. Vis : good becoming moderate to poor in rain and snow showers by the second half of the period. Sea state: 3.0 to 5.0m, reaching 5.5 to 6.0m in places at first, W to SW swell.
Area 2: ======= marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)
Date: 15/07/04 at 0500utc averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here.).
Part 1: warning : gale force 8 over ams and wam to strong gale force 9 over cro and ker.
Part 2: general synopsys, 15/07/04 at 0000 UTC : high 1027 hpa near 26s/54e, almost stationary. Low 957 hpa near 54s/79e with cold front cf axis : 35s/68e, 44s/80e, 50s/85e, 56s/92e, 58s/84e moving eastward 35 kt, deepening. Low 982 hpa near 50s/45e with cold front cg axis : 37s/51e, 45s/3e, 51s/42e moving eastward 40/45 kt, filling.
Part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 15/07/04 at 0600 UTC to 15/07/05 at 0600utc : wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) : frontal rains and showers under cg. Wind : westerly to southerly 5 to 8 becoming clockwise 4/5 over south-western area. Sea : very rough to high from north to south. Moderate to heavy SW swell. Vis : very poor in precipitations.
Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) : frontal rain and showers under cf. Wind : NW 5 to 8 from north to south area ahead cf, backing westerly 5 to 8 behind. Sea : very rough to high. Moderate to heavy SW swell. Vis : very poor in precipitations.
Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) : frontal rain, snow and showers under cg. Wind : westerly 8/9 backing SW 7/8 behind cg setting up NW 7/8 behind becoming clockwise 6/8 over southern area. Sea : very rough to high. Heavy SW swell. Vis : very poor in precipitations.
Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) : frontal rain, snow and showers under cg. Wind : westerly 8/9 behind, veering W to NW 8/9 ahead cg backing SW 7/8 behind becoming clockwise 6/8 over southern area sea : very rough to high. Heavy westerly swell. Vis : very poor in precipitations.