For southeast sector of Metarea VII, prepared by reunion, see area 2 below.
Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.
Area 1: ====== forecast valid from 231000 to 241000 utc:
Wind in knots, wave heights in meters. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.
Gale warnings: ============== 1. Cape east: SW to se reaching 35 at first in the east. 2. Marion forties east: N to NW 35 to 45 in the west, spreading to the east while moderating in the west.
Synoptic situation at 06:00z ============================ high 1030 hpa 41s42e low 970 hpa 45s07w low 990 hpa 46s23e low 1010 hpa 37s24e. Low 1006 hpa 37s54e
1. Cold front: 37s17w 40s07w 45s07w. 2. Cold front: 26s04e 30s10e 35s16e 40s21e 46s23e. 3. Cold front: 28s46e 30s54e 35s58e 37s54e.
Area forecast: ============== cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e) wind : SW to se 20 to 30 in the east, reaching 35 at first, otherwise N to NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 today. It will be W to SW 10 to 20 in places in the west. Vis : good, but moderate in showers and rain in the South-West, spreading eastwards. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the east at first, se to SW swell, but NE swell in places in the west.
Durban east (25s/32.5s, East Coast/55e) wind : S to SW 20 to 30 in the east and N to NE 20 to 30 in the extreme west, otherwise anti-cyclonic 05 to 10. Vis : good, but moderate showers and rain in the extreme east at first. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east, reaching 5.0m, SW swell.
Mozambique channel: wind : S to se 15 to 25. Vis : good.
Madagascar east: wind : S to se 15 to 25, but SW 10 to 20 in the extreme south. Vis : good. Sea state: 3.0m in the extreme south at the end of the period, SW swell.
Marion forties east: (40s/50s, 35e/50e) wind : se 15 to 25 in the extreme North-East at first, otherwise N to NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 to 45. It will become S to SW 15 to 25 in the west tomorrow. Vis : good, becoming moderate to poor in showers and rain from the west. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, but 5.0 to 6.0m in the South-West, reaching 6.0 to 7.0m, W to SW swell, becoming NW swell from the west.
Area 2: ======= marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)
Date: 15/05/23 at 0500utc
Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here.).
Part 1: warning :
Gale force 8 running over cro.
Part 2: general synopsys, 15/05/23 at 0000 UTC : high 1026 hpa near 33s/82e slow-moving. High 1031 hpa near 42s/39e with a ridge toward kerguelen's islands. Low 1006 hpa near 38s/51e moving slowly northeastward. Occlusion of 35s/44e, 40s/46e, 43s/55e, 45s/70e, 48s/80e, 48s/89e. Waving cold front cg 30s/50e, 35s/54e, 39s/54e, 42s/58e.
Part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 15/05/23 at 0600 UTC to 15/05/24 at 0600utc :
Wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) : frontal rain cg, showers and squalls. Wind: N 4/6 locally 7 ahead front then clockwise 4/6. Sea : moderate to rough becoming to very rough over western with a moderate to heavy SW then S swell. Vis : poor to very poor in precipitations.
Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) : scattered showers. Wind: anticlockwise 3/5 setting up E to NE 4/6 at end. Sea : moderate to rough. Moderate South-West swell abating. Vis : good locally moderate.
Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) : frontal rain of and cg over northern. Wind: clockwise 6/8 over northern setting up N to NE 4/6 over all part at end. Sea : moderate to rough locally very rough over northern at beginning. Moderate SW swell over southern and moderate se swell over northern. Vis : poor to very poor in precipitations.
Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) : frontal rain or snow at beginning. Wind: anticlockwise 4/6 locally 7 over far southern. Sea : rough to very rough becoming moderate to rough. Moderate W or SW swell. Vis : poor in precipitations.