For southeast sector of Metarea VII, prepared by reunion, see area 2 below.
Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.
Area 1: ====== forecast valid from 121000 to 131000 utc:
Wind in knots, wave heights in metres. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.
Gale warnings: =============== 1. Madagascar east: se 35 in the north-west. 2. Marion forties east: W to NW reaching 35 in the south.
Synoptic situation at 06:00z: ============================= high 1030 hpa 31s01e high 1030 hpa 31s55e. Low 1002 hpa 46s04e low 954 hpa 63s37e low 1014 hpa 35s26e low 1018 hpa 31s32e low 1018 hpa 38s30e.
1. Cold front: 32s13w 35s09w 40s02w 46s04e 50s22e 55s42e 60s47e 63s37e.
Area forecast: ============== cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e) wind : NW 10 to 20 in the east, but S to SW 15 to 25 in the extreme west, spreading eastwards and reaching 30, otherwise cyclonic 15 to 25 . Vis : good, but moderate in showers in the west, spreading eastwards. Sea state: 3.0 to 3.5m, reaching 4.0 to 4.5m in the east at first, SW swell.
Durban east (25s/32.5s, East Coast/55e) wind : E to se 10 to 20 in the North-East at first, otherwise NE to NW 15 to 25, reaching 30. It will become SW 15 to 25 in the extreme South-West tomorrow, spreading north-eastwards. Vis : good becoming moderate in showers and rain in the west tomorrow. Sea state: 3.0 to 3.5m, reaching 4.0m in the south-east at first, SW swell.
Mozambique channel: wind : S to se 05 to 15, reaching 20 in the North-East, but N to NE 05 to 15 in the South-West. Vis : good but moderate in showers and rain in the north-west. Sea state: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme North-East, E to se swell, but 3.0m in the south-east, SW swell subsiding towards the end of the period.
Madagascar east: wind : E to se 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 35 in the north-west, but NE 05 to 15 in the extreme South-West. Vis : good, but moderate in showers in the North-East. Sea state: 3.0 to 3.5m, reaching 4.0m in the north, E to se, but SW swell in the South.
Marion forties east: (40s/50s, 35e/50e) wind : NW 15 to 25, reaching 35 in the south today. Vis : good becoming moderate in showers and rain. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, but 5.0 to 5.5m in the extreme south, SW swell.
Area 2) ======= marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)
Date: 14/07/12 at 0500utc
Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here.).
Part 1: warning :
Strong gale force 9 over cro and ker. Gale force 8 over ams
Part 2: general synopsys, 14/07/12 at 0000 UTC :
Low 964 hpa near 59s/64e associated cold front axis 39s/66e, 45s/71e, 50s/74e, 55s/73e, 62s/61e moving eastward 40/45 kt.
High 1028 hpa near 28s/49e moving eastward.
Part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 14/07/12 at 0600 UTC to 14/07/13 at 0600utc :
Wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) : showers. Wind: anticlockwise 3/4 setting up NW 3/4 by western area. Sea : rough to very rough over southern area. Moderate to heavy SW swell from north to south. Vis : poor under showers.
Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) : showers wind: westerly 5 to 7 from northern to southern temporarily 8 over far southern becoming anticlockwise 4/5 by western at end. Sea : rough to very rough to northern from southern, locally high near 40s. Moderate to heavy SW swell. Vis : poor under showers
Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) : showers. Wind: westerly 7/8 temporarily 9 over southern decreasing 5/7 over northern in the day. Sea : very rough to high locally very high over far south-eastern. Heavy SW swell. Vis : poor under precipitations.
Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) : rain and snow under the front. Wind: NW 5/7 ahead front over far eastern area backing westerly 7 to 9 behind. Sea : high to very high. Heavy SW swell. Vis : poor in precipitations.