For southeast sector of Metarea VII, prepared by reunion, see area 2 below.
Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.
Area 1: ====== forecast valid from 021000 to 031000 utc:
Wind in knots, wave heights in metres. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.
Gale warnings: ============== 1. Cape east: S to se reaching 35 to 45 in the east. 2. Durban east: NW to NE 35 in the east, otherwise S to SW reaching 35 in the central parts today.
Synoptic situation at 06:00z ============================ high 1030 hpa 34s03e high 1030 hpa 41s40e. Low 1002 hpa 32s45e.
1. Cold front: 24s43e 25s45e 32s45e.
Area forecast: ============== cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e) wind : S to se 15 to 25, reaching 35 to 45, but E to NE 10 to 20 in the North-East and variable 05 to 10 in the South-West where it will become W to SW 10 to 20. Vis : good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the east. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, in the east, but 5.0 to 6.0m in the North-East, reaching 6.5m, E to NE.
Durban east (25s/32.5s, East Coast/55e) wind : NW to NE 20 to 30 in the east, reaching 35, otherwise S to SW 15 to 25, spreading eastwards and reaching 35 in the central parts today. Vis : good in the west at first, otherwise moderate in showers and thundershowers. Sea state: 4.0 to 5.0m, reaching 6.0 to 6.5m in the central parts, subsiding at the end of the period, S to se swell, but SW to se swell in the east.
Mozambique channel: wind : S to se 10 to 20, but SW 15 to 25 in the south-east. Vis : good. Sea state: 3.5 to 4.5m in the south, S to SW swell, subsiding at the end of the period.
Madagascar east: wind : E to se 10 to 20 in the extreme north, otherwise N to NE 15 to 25. Vis : good.
Marion forties east: (40s/50s, 35e/50e) wind : se 15 to 25 in the North-East, otherwise NW 15 to 25, reaching 30. It will become SW 15 to 25 in the extreme South- West at the end of the period. Vis : good, becoming moderate in showers and rain in the extreme South-West at the end of the period. Sea state: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south, SW swell.
Area 2: =======
Marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)
Date: 14/10/02 at 0500utc
Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here.).
Part 1: warning :
Gale force 8 over wam and ker.
Part 2: general synopsys, 14/10/02 at 0000 UTC :
High 1032 hpa near 42s/37e and 1025 hpa near 36s/59e, almost stationary, extending by north-eastern ridge.
Low 1001 hpa near 31s/44e, moving eastward 10/15kt, with cold front axis : 26s/44e, 30s/47e, 35s/42e and warm front axis : 34s/56e, 36s/50e, 36s/42e.
Part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 14/10/02 at 0600 UTC to 14/10/03 at 0600utc :
Wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) : frontal squalls and showers wind: anticlockwise 2/4, becoming North-East 5/7, increasing 8 ahead the front, before backing north 5/7 behind front. Sea : moderate to rough, becoming very rough over North-Western area. Moderate South-West swell decreasing. Arrival moderate to heavy North-East swell. Vis : poor in precipitations.
Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) : showers becoming scattered. Wind: south-westerly 5/7, becoming anticlockwise 2/4 over western. Sea : rough becoming moderate. Moderate South-West swell. Vis : good.
Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) : showers over south-eastern. Wind: south-westerly 5 to 7, becoming anticlockwise 3/5 over north area. Sea : moderate to rough. Moderate South-West swell abating. Vis : poor in precipitations becoming good.
Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) : frequently showers, locally snowing. Wind: south-westerly 5/7, locally 8. Sea : rough, locally very rough. Moderate South-West swell, locally high. Vis : poor in precipitations.