HS 015

========= weather bulletin for the high seas for Metarea VII east of 20e. Issued by the South African Weather Service on the 12th February 2012 at 08:30 UTC.

Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.

Area 1: ======= forecast valid from 121000 to 131000 utc:

Wind in knots, wave heights in metres. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.

Note the wind speeds quoted here are the expected average speeds. Individual gusts may exceed these values by a factor of up to 1.5. Wave heights are significant wave heights which may be accompanied by individual waves 1.5 to 2.0 times higher.

Tropical cyclone 9 (giovanna): ==============================

0.A warning number: 14/9/20112012 1.A tropical cyclone 9 (giovanna)

2.A position 2012/02/12 at 0600 utc: within 10 nm radius of point 17.6 S / 57.5 E (seventeen decimal six degrees south and fifty seven decimal five degrees east) movement : west 5 kt

3.A Dvorak analysis: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/24 h 4.A central pressure: 965 hpa 5.A Max average wind speed (10 mn): 75 kt radius of maximum winds (rmw) :50 km

6.A extension of wind by quadrants (km): 28 kt ne: 200 se: 280 sw: 220 nw: 200 34 kt ne: 170 se: 200 sw: 170 nw: 170 48 kt ne: 110 se: 110 sw: 110 nw: 110 64 kt ne: 70 se: 70 sw: 70 nw: 70

7.A first closed isobar (pressure / average diam): 1008 hpa / 800 km 8.A vertical extension of cyclone circulation : deep

1.B forecasts: 12h: 2012/02/12 18 utc: 17.6 S / 55.6 E, Max wind=080 kt, tropical cyclone 24h: 2012/02/13 06 utc: 18.0 S / 53.1 E, Max wind=075 kt, tropical cyclone 36h: 2012/02/13 18 utc: 18.3 S / 50.8 E, Max wind=070 kt, tropical cyclone 48h: 2012/02/14 06 utc: 18.5 S / 48.1 E, Max wind=000 , inland 60h: 2012/02/14 18 utc: 20.0 S / 45.0 E, Max wind=000 , inland 72h: 2012/02/15 06 utc: 21.3 S / 42.5 E, Max wind=025 kt, tropical disturbance

2.B longer-range outlook : 96h: 2012/02/16 06 utc: 22.6 S / 39.3 E, Max wind=025 kt, tropical disturbance 120h: 2012/02/17 06 utc: 22.8 S / 37.0 E, Max wind=030 kt, tropical depression

2.C additional informations: t=4.5 et ci=5.0-

Gale warnings: ============== 1. Madagascar east: cyclonic (clockwise) 35 to 55, reaching 65 to 75 in the central parts. 2. Marion forties east: cyclonic (clockwise) 35 to 40, becoming se to NE 35.

Synoptic situation at 06:00 UTC =============================== high 1030 hpa 43s13w low 994 hpa 52s20e low 982 hpa 45s36e low 986 hpa 44s44e

1. Cold front: 33s04e 35s15e 40s21e 45s23e 52s20e. 2. Cold front: 28s40e 30s42e 35s46e 40s47e 44s44e 45s36e.

Area forecast: ============== cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e) wind : SW to NW 20 to 30. Vis : moderate to poor in rain and showers, becoming good from the west. Sea : 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m, mainly SW swell, moderating from the west.

Durban east (25s/32.5s, East Coast/55e) wind : N to NW 10 to 20 in the extreme east at first, otherwise E to se 10 to 20. Vis : good, but poor in thundershowers in the western and central parts. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, mainly SW swell in the southwest.

Mozambique channel: wind : W to NW 10 to 15 in north, otherwise NE 15 to 25, becoming S to se in the southeast. Vis : moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north and west, otherwise good.

Madagascar east: wind : E to se 15 to 25 in the south, otherwise W to NW 20 to 30, becoming cyclonic (clockwise) 30 to 40, reaching 55 to 75 in the central parts. Vis : poor in showers and thundershowers. Sea state: 4.0 to 6.0m, reaching 10.0 to 12.0m in the central parts, se to NE swell.

Marion forties east: (40s/50s, 35e/50e) wind : cyclonic (clockwise) 15 to 25, reaching 35 to 40, becoming se to NE 20 to 30, reaching 35. Vis : poor in rain and showers, becoming good in the second half of the period. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 5.5 to 6.5m, se swell, becoming NW swell.

Area 2 ======= marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)

date: 12/02/12 at 0500utc

Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here.). part 1: warning : nil.

Part 2: general synopsys, 12/02/12 at 0000 UTC : cold front axis: 38s/59e, 40s/70e, 45s/75e,moving eastsoutheastward 20/25 kt.

Cold front axis: 30s/40e, 35s/47e, 40s/47e, 45s/51e, associated low 987 hpa near 42s/32e, moving eastward 35 kt.

Page 1/2 part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 12/02/12 at 0600 UTC to 12/02/13 at 0600utc :

wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) : showers. Wind: NW 4 to 6. Sea : moderate to rough. Vis : poor in precipitations.

Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) : rain and showers. Wind: W to SW 5 to 7. Sea : rough. Vis : poor in precipitations.

Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) : rain and showers. Wind: NE 5 to 7 ahead the front backing W to NW 5/6 behind at daytime. Sea : rough. Vis : poor in precipitations.

Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) : rain and showers. Wind: anticlockwise 5/6. Sea : moderate to rough. Vis : poor in precipitations.