For southeast sector of Metarea VII, prepared by reunion, see area 2 below.
Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.
Area 1: ====== forecast valid from 281000 to 291000 utc:
Wind in knots, wave heights in metres. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.
Gale warnings: ============== 1. Cape east: W to SW 35 in places in the west. 2. Durban east: SW 35 in the west by the second half of the period.
Synoptic situation at 06:00z: ============================= high 1030 hpa 31s05w high 1026 hpa 42s60e. Low 992 hpa 45s25e low 1006 hpa 34s31e low 974 hpa 56s32e.
1. Cold front: 30s14e 35s20e 40s24e into 45s25e. 2. Cold front: 35s30e 40s33e 45s35e 50s36e into 56s32e. 3. Cold front: 25s33w 30s31w 35s29w into 44s35w into 52s18w into 65s08w.
Area forecast: ==============
Cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e) wind : NE to N 15 to 25 in the extreme east, otherwise W to SW 20 to 30 reaching 35 in places but cyclonic 25 to 30 in the eastern interior. Vis : moderate in showers and rain, except in the extreme east. Sea state: 3 to 4m, reaching 4.5 to 7m in the west, with SW swell in the west but se swell in the east.
Durban east (25s/32.5s, East Coast/55e) wind : S to se 05 to 10 in the extreme South-West at first, otherwise NE to N 20 to 30. It will become SW to NW 25 to 35 in the west by the second half of the period. Vis : good, but moderate to poor in showers in the South-West, spreading east and north-eastwards, affecting the western half by the second half of the period. Sea state: 2.5 to 4m, reaching 5 to 7m in the South-West and extreme west, with se swell.
Mozambique channel: wind : SW to NW 10 to 15 in the extreme east, otherwise NE to N 15 to 25 but se to E 15 to 25 in the extreme North-East. It will become NW 15 to 20 in the extreme south by the end of the period. Vis : good. Sea state: 2.5m in places, se swell.
Madagascar east: wind : E to NE 10 to 20 in the extreme south, otherwise S to se 15 to 25, reaching 30. Vis : good, but moderate in showers and rain in the North. Sea state: 2.5 to 3m, with SW swell.
Marion forties east: (40s/50s, 35e/50e) wind : NW to W 15 to 25 in the South-West, otherwise N to NE 15 to 25 reaching 30. It will become cyclonic 15 to 25 in the north-west and west by the second half of the period. Vis : good becoming moderate with showers in the north by the second half of the period. Sea state: 3.5 to 4.5m, with W to NW swell.
Area 2: =======
Marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)
Date: 14/08/28 at 0500utc
Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here.).
Part 1: warning : nil.
Part 2: general synopsys, 14/08/28 at 0000 UTC : filliing low 1010 hpa near 34s/68e, almost stationnary with cold front axis 37s/70e, 35s/79e, 33s/86e. High 1026 hpa near 44s/59e, moving east-north-eastward 10/15 kt.
Part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 14/08/28 at 0600 UTC to 14/08/29 at 0600utc : wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) : scattered showers. Wind : easterly to south-east 4/5 veering- North-East to north over western area in first part of period. Sea : moderate. Vis : good.
Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) : showers under the front. Wind : southern of 35s, south-east 4/6 ad clockwise over northern area then setting up S to se 4 to 6 over all area. Sea : moderate to rough. Vis : poor in precipitations.
Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) : showers over south-western area in second part of period. Wind : anticlockwise 3/4, setting-up N then NW 4/6 by western area. Sea : moderate. Moderate NW swell over western area. Vis : poor under precipitations.
Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) : scattered showers. Wind : South-West 4/6 veering westerly 3/5 over western area in second part of period. Sea : moderate. Moderate southerly swell abating. Vis : good.