For southeast sector of Metarea VII, prepared by reunion, see area 2 below.
Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.
Area 1: ====== forecast valid from 312200 to 012200 utc:
Wind in knots, wave heights in meters. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.
Gale warnings: ============== 1. Cape east: W to SW 35, but NW 35 in the west, spreading to the central parts by end of the period. 2. Durban east: SW 35 over the central parts spreading eastwards by end of the period. 3. Mozambique channel: S to SW 35. 4. Marion forties east: W to NW 35 to 45 spreading eastwards by end of the period.
Synoptic situation at 12:00z ============================ high 1028 hpa 35s15e. Low 976 hpa 54s50e low 960 hpa 61s53e low 1004 hpa 42s44e low 1008 hpa 34s48e low 1012 hpa 19s38e.
1. Cold front: 28s34e 40s46e 50s50e into 54s50e into 61s53e.
Area forecast: ==============
Cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e) wind : W to SW 10 to 20, reaching 35, but NW 25 to 35 in the west, spreading to the central parts by end of the period. Vis : moderate to poor in showers and rain, moderating from the west by midday. Sea state: 4.0 to 5.0m, reaching 6.0 to 6.5m in the west, SW swell.
Durban east (25s/32.5s, East Coast/55e) wind : N to NW 15 to 25 in the extremely east, otherwise SW 20 to 30, reaching 35 over the central parts spreading eastwards by end of the period. Vis : moderate in rain and showers, moderating from the west by end of the period. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the west, spreading eastwards, SW swell.
Mozambique Channel wind : NE 05 to 15 in the north at first, otherwise S to SW 20 to 30, reaching 35. Vis : moderate in showers in the south, spreading to the north by end of the period. Sea state: 4.0 to 5.0m in the south, SW swell.
Madagascar east: wind : se 15 to 25 in the north, otherwise NW 10 to 20, becoming SW 20 to 30 in the south by the end of the period. Vis : good, but moderate in showers and rain in places. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, SW swell.
Marion forties east: (40s/50s, 35e/50e) wind : SW 15 to 25 in the east at first, otherwise W to NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 to 45 spreading eastwards by end of the period. Vis : good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the west, spreading to the east by end of the period. Sea state: 4.0 to 5.0m, reaching 6.0 to 7.0m in the extremely south.
Area 2: ======= marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)
Date: 15/07/31 at 1700 UTC
Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale. (Wind gusts may be stronger than averages given here).
Part 1: warning :
- strong gale force 9 expected over wam.
Part 2: general synopsys, 15/07/31 a 1200 UTC :
- high 1024 hpa near 33s/69s weakening.
- Filling low 1009 hpa near 48s/81e with cold front cf axis 29s/73e, 38s/82e, 48s/87e, moving east-south-eastward 15 kt.
- Cold front cg axis 40s/41e, 47s/47e, 56s/50e, with deepening low 1004 hpa near 42s/48e moving south-eastward 20/30kt.
- Convergence line axis 30s/50e, 34s/54e, 38s/55e moving south-eastward 10/20 kt.
Part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 15/07/31 at 1800 UTC to 15/08/01 at 1800 UTC :
wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) :
Showers and squalls over western in convergence line then frontal rain and showers in cg.
Wind : anticlockwise 3/5 over eastern increasing N 4/6 over western ahead cg increasing 7/9 in front then backing SW 5/7 behind over far south-western at end.
Sea : rough to very rough locally high to very high. Moderate to locally heavy SW swell.
Visi : very poor under precipitations.
Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) :
Frontal showers over eastern in cf.
Wind : northerly 4/6 ahead cf over eastern becoming anticlockwise 3/5 behind then northerly 4/6 over western.
Sea : moderate to rough. Moderate SW swell.
Visi : poor under precipitations.
Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) :
Frontal rain or snow and showers under cg.
Wind : north-westerly 5/7 ahead cg backing southerly 5/6 behind..
Sea : rough to very rough. Moderate to heavy westerly swell.
Visi : poor in precipitations.
Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) :
Scattered showers then frontal rain or snow and showers under cg.
Wind : anticlockwise 3/5 setting up northerly 5/7 over western ahead the front cg.
Sea : rough to very rough. Moderate south-westerly swell.
Visi : poor in precipitations.