Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 170600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi// 
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and 
/South Pacific oceans/170600z-180600zjun2018// 
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 96w) previously located 
near 19.6n 114.3e, is now located near 19.5n 114.1e, approximately 
164 nm south of Hong Kong. Animated multispectral satellite imagery 
depicts a consolidating low level circulation center (LLCC) with 
disorganized flaring convection displaced to the south. A 170230z 
metop-b ascat pass indicates there is a broad circulation with a 
narrow swath of 20 to 25 knot east-northeasterly winds along the 
southern coast of China and along the southern periphery, 
approximately 100 nm from the LLCC. A 170226z mhs metop-b 89ghz 
microwave image supports satellite imagery and depicts the 
convection to the south of the LLCC. The system is located in a 
marginally favorable environment along the southern periphery of the 
upper-level ridge with low to moderate easterly vertical wind shear 
and broad diffluence aloft. Navgem is the only outlier and indicates 
gradual development over the next two days as the system tracks into 
the Taiwan Strait. The other dynamic models (gfs, ECMWF, ukmo and 
jgsm) track the system northward toward Mainland China in the next 
24 to 36 hours with weak development.  Maximum sustained surface 
winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is 
estimated to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to 
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.// 

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