Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 191700
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
South Pacific oceans reissued/191700z-200600zjun2018//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 97w) has persisted near
15.4n 128.5e, approximately 450 nm east of Manila. Animated enhanced
infrared imagery depicts a partly exposed LLCC with flaring deep
convection covering the center and southwest quadrant. Partial
191254z ascat and 191233z oscat images reveal predominant 15 to 20
knot winds with the strongest winds in the southwest quadrant. Upper
level analysis indicates marginally favorable (10 to 20 knots) vws
and weak equatorward outflow. No models are showing development at
this time. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in para 1.B.(1) to low.//

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