Tropical Cyclone Oma

Last Updated: 2/21/2019, 6:00:00 PM (UTC)

  • Location: 24.7 S 159.2 E
  • Movement: SSW at 10 mph
  • Wind: 45 mph
  • Pressure: --

  • Forecast

  • Model

  • Ensemble

  • Satellite

    Satellite

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Select a report to view:

000 
WTPS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 24.7S 159.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 159.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 25.8S 158.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 26.4S 158.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 26.8S 159.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 26.3S 159.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 24.8S 159.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 159.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL SHALLOW CONVECTION 
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 211640Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE, WITH THE 
UPPER-LEVEL CENTER NOW DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 25NM TO THE SOUTHEAST 
OF THE LOWER-LEVEL CENTER, WHICH CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG 
WEST-NORTHWEST VWS VECTOR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) 
VWS, BEING OFFSET BY LOW (LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS) SSTS AND DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEST. TC 15P CONTINUES 
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STR CENTERED TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 15P IS 
FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE 
SOUTH, BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT BEYOND TAU 24. AFTER TAU 
24, THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEW 
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN 
AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, INCREASING VWS AND MASS CONVERGENCE FROM THE 
WEST COMBINE TO ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 72. 
ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AGREE ON THE LIMITED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT 
AND SUBSEQUENT TURN TO THE NORTH, WITH VARIATIONS ON WHICH WAY THE 
TRACK WILL TURN (CLOCKWISE OR COUNTERCLOCKWISE). THE JTWC OFFICIAL 
TRACK LIES JUST INSIDE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, AND TURNS THE 
SYSTEM TO THE EAST THEN NORTH AS THIS SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO 
DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF 
THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 211800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 
222100Z.//
NNNN

Learn more about Tropical Cyclone Oma and the 2019 Southern Hemisphere hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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Storm Track Statistics

Feb 12
00:00 GMT
-14.0°
164.5°
40 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 12
06:00 GMT
-13.7°
164.9°
40 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 12
12:00 GMT
-13.7°
165.5°
50 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 12
18:00 GMT
-14.0°
166.0°
50 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 13
00:00 GMT
-14.4°
166.1°
50 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 13
06:00 GMT
-14.6°
165.1°
50 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 13
12:00 GMT
-14.0°
165.0°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 13
18:00 GMT
-14.7°
165.4°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 14
00:00 GMT
-14.7°
165.5°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 14
06:00 GMT
-14.9°
165.5°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 14
12:00 GMT
-15.5°
165.2°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 14
18:00 GMT
-15.4°
165.4°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 15
00:00 GMT
-15.1°
165.2°
70 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 15
06:00 GMT
-15.0°
165.1°
75 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 15
12:00 GMT
-15.3°
164.6°
80 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 15
18:00 GMT
-15.5°
164.3°
80 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 16
00:00 GMT
-15.5°
163.9°
80 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 16
06:00 GMT
-15.5°
164.1°
80 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 16
12:00 GMT
-15.3°
164.2°
80 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 16
18:00 GMT
-15.3°
164.4°
75 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 17
00:00 GMT
-15.5°
164.2°
75 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 17
06:00 GMT
-16.1°
164.3°
70 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 17
12:00 GMT
-16.3°
164.3°
70 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 17
18:00 GMT
-16.6°
164.1°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 18
00:00 GMT
-17.3°
164.0°
60 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 18
06:00 GMT
-18.2°
163.3°
50 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 18
12:00 GMT
-18.5°
163.1°
60 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 18
18:00 GMT
-19.0°
162.7°
70 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 19
00:00 GMT
-19.7°
162.3°
85 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 19
06:00 GMT
-20.0°
162.1°
85 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 19
12:00 GMT
-20.6°
162.0°
85 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 19
18:00 GMT
-21.1°
161.5°
85 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 20
00:00 GMT
-21.4°
161.2°
80 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 20
06:00 GMT
-21.5°
161.0°
80 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
1
Feb 20
12:00 GMT
-21.9°
160.8°
70 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 20
18:00 GMT
-22.1°
160.6°
65 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 21
00:00 GMT
-22.5°
160.0°
60 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 21
06:00 GMT
-23.4°
159.8°
50 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 21
12:00 GMT
-24.1°
159.7°
50 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
Feb 21
18:00 GMT
-24.7°
159.2°
45 mph -- in
Tropical Cyclone
-
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