TS Barbara forms, headed for Mexico

By: wxchaser97 , 12:06 PM GMT on May 29, 2013

Tropical Storm Barbara
Tropical Storm (TS) Barbara formed yesterday from TD2E, which was formerly 92E. This system had been organizing itself over the past few days. What was once a disturbance in the ITCZ/monsoon trough, Barbara was able to separate herself and slowly build her own convection. The disturbance was invested in and designated 92E as it continued to organized. After some more strengthening, 92E looked poised to become the 2nd Tropical depression (TD) of the season. Some issues with coverage of convection and an elongated circulation had the NHC hold off on classification until yesterday afternoon. It seemed like once Barbara was able to overcome most of the issues she had, she began to take off intensity and organization wise. She quickly became TS Barbara at the next advisory and has been strengthening ever since. Currently Barbara has a very good structure. There is a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) region over the center and some banding looks to be forming. All signs point to some more strengthening is possible before landfall. Here is the latest storm info on Barbara and a satellite and microwave image.

3:25 AM PDT Wed May 29
Location: 15.0°N 95.3°W
Moving: NE at 6 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Satellite image:

Microwave image:

Like I said earlier, Barbara should probably strengthen some more before landfall. She is developing a pretty solid inner core, as seen in microwave imagery. She is also in a low shear environment with warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's). Her main hindrances are time and land interaction. If it wasn't for those two things, especially the former, I could definitely see Barbara becoming a hurricane. Land interaction may be hurting the storm a little, but the mountains may be helping somewhat. Looking at the environment, her past strengthening patterns, and her organization right now, I am going to have Barbara make landfall as a 70mph TS sometime tonight. The possibility is certainly there for Barbara to make landfall as a minimum hurricane. This is stronger than what the models say she will make landfall as, but I have no reason to think she will weaken until after landfall. Weakening will be fast due to the mountains tearing up the low level circulation and most of the convection. It is possible that the mid level circulation makes it into the Bay of Campeche (BOC). If it does it could try to redevelop, or at least be a catalyst for development. That is to be seen later if that ever happens. Barbara should continue in a N to NE motion. I give Barbara 12-24hrs more of time over water. It will likely end up being somewhere in the middle of that. People in the area can expect very heavy rain, flash flooding, especially near the mountains, and high winds, stronger closer to the coast. Tropical storm warnings and hurricane warnings are up for the likely hood of TS conditions and the possibility of hurricane conditions. People need to take the necessary precautions for Barbara. My forecast track for Barbara can be seen below, storm info came from the special advisory update at 3:25am PDT.

Have a great Wednesday everyone! I will try to get my 2013 hurricane season forecast out in the next few days. This is also the first storm that I will be doing a Tropical Cyclone Report (TCR).

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3. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:39 AM GMT on May 30, 2013
wxchaser97 has created a new entry.
2. wxchaser97
1:27 PM GMT on May 29, 2013
Quoting SouthernIllinois:
Great Blog! Good information!

Thanks! I appreciate it.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 128 Comments: 7990

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I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist

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