I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 6:41 AM GMT on August 06, 2012
Tropical storm Ernesto has had a rough past few days. Trade winds and dry air have disrupted his circulation and made convection disconnected from his coc. This has kept Ernesto weaker than he could have been. Right now Ernesto has 50mph winds, 1003mb pressure, and is moving W at 13mh. He is currently starting to organize which is not good for the Yucatan. Environment conditions have improved the past 6-12 hours which has allowed Ernesto to look better. The sst have warmed, trades lessened, Shear decreased, and the air is more moist. The only factor right now against Ernesto is time, he will make landfall in around 2 days. He may even make landfall in Central America if current trends continue, but I expect a WNW movement to occur soon. I think a landfall on the middle to southern part of the Yucatan as a minimal hurricane is the likely scenario but anything is possible. No matter what Ernesto is a heavy rain and wind threat where he makes landfall and he still needs to be watched.
My forecast graphic for Ernesto and Florence:
Tropical Storm Florence formed on Saturday and had peak winds of 60mph. She was the 6th storm of the year. Her environment was great for development in the beginning but has became hostile now. Florence has weakened to a wimpy 40mph storm and should degenerate to a remnant low soon. Florence is not expected to impact land but some models redevelop her so she still needs to be watched.
The GFS has been consistently showing a hurricane forming just off Africa and coming close to the US. It would be a strong storm if it formed and trends in gfs runs need to be watched. If a storm formed it would be named Gordon and he would be the seventh storm of the year.
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