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Atlantic AOI; Winter Storm Brutus impacting the NW

By: wxchaser97 , 6:30 PM GMT on November 10, 2012

Atlantic Ocean
Atlantic AOI
The Atlantic hurricane season does not want to end early. A surface low and disturbance is ongoing 950 miles to the west of the Cape Verde Islands. There is a small chance this low becomes TS/STS Valerie. The AOI is in the left-top left portion of the satellite image. If a storm formed it would stay out to sea and relatively weak.

The latest surface maps show a surface low associated with a tropical wave near 16N 40W. This is backed up by satellite images showing this low. This low, however, is not well-defined and it is void of thunderstorms. The most recent ASCAT pass shows the strongest winds are removed from the center and, once again, not a well-defined center. Tropical storm force winds are being shown on that ASCAT pass and, if it even gets named, would become a TS right way. The chances of this AOI being named are pretty low. Wind shear over this system is really high right now, 40-60kts per CIMSS wind shear map. That is not allowing the circulation to become better defined and convection to develop over the center. The shear is expected to decrease in intensity over the next day or two. It could drop into some marginally favorable levels allowing for an attempt to develop. The GFS has shown this trying to form over the past few days but it never makes it past a weak TS. Other factors would allow for a storm to form, for example SST and moister available. So if shear can decrease some development is possible before shear ramps up again. There has been a little model support for this system besides a little from the GFS. No model makes it more than a TD to weak TS and the Euro doesn't even develop it. I give this AOI a 10% chance of developing in the next 48hrs. The NHC center gives it a 0% chance in 48hrs. I am just a little higher because there is a chance the environment becomes marginally conducive. This system would stay weak and not affect any landmasses. The cold front off to the west should turn this system to the north and increase shear over it ending any development that occurred.

Possible development
There is a more likely candidate to become Valerie in the Atlantic at this moment. An area of showers and thunderstorms, NE of the Caribbean islands, is associated with the front mentioned earlier. While conditions aren't favorable right now they're expected to improve over the next couple days. The GFS and ECMWF show this system is expected to break off of the front and then slowly move WNW. It should then turn to the north and begin to develop S of Bermuda. At 96hrs they show a tropical storm moving away from Bermuda. There is a chance this system could be subtropical but right now it looks to be fully tropical. It intensifies into a moderate TS on its way north-northeast. After 120hrs it is transitioning into an extra-tropical storm and completes the transition in about a day. This system will have better conditions than the current AOI. This disturbance also has way more model support than the current AOI. This storm has been shown for several days now by models. It would be close enough to Bermuda and Canada where they could get some impacts. I think there is a good chance of this system becoming Valerie over the next week.

Winter Storm Brutus
Winter Storm Brutus, named by TWC, continues to affect the NW. TWC has created a naming system to name intense winter storms that affect a lot of people. This winter storm is producing a lot of snow and it is affecting enough people to be named by TWC. "Brutus" is a large extra-tropical storm producing high amounts of snow and blizzard conditions. Snow amounts of 18 inches or more are expected in some areas and winds could gust over 45mph. Winter storm warnings are in effect in Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, and other mountainous areas. Some areas could get some near record snowfall. Travel is disrupted and people need to take caution if they are being affected by Brutus. He should move into Canada over the next couple days but snow should continue to fall over the northern US over the next couple days. Some of his energy/low is expected to move across the middle of the country. Some rain/thunderstorms, a few severe, and even some snow is expected from this. The great Lakes could receive snow on the back side of the system and from lake effect snow. There could be some accumulation in a few areas. The Mid West and Ohio Valley could get some severe thunderstorms with hail and winds being the threat. This should be monitored over the next couple days.

Have a great day everyone and I will have a new update in one to two days.
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8. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:31 PM GMT on November 13, 2012
wxchaser97 has created a new entry.
7. WunderGirl12
11:57 AM GMT on November 12, 2012
Thanks wxchaser! Lots and Lots of information in your posts! Thanks!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. pcola57
1:50 AM GMT on November 11, 2012
Thanks for taking time and hammering this posting out..
I know it was difficult but looking at your results..it was worth it.. :)
The area near Bermuda is the one I was speaking of in chat last night but I think everyone was have more of a good time to notice..
I agree with you as I think Valarie will be our last tropical storm this year..
Brutus will have the normal winter surge effect and then cause severe weather farther south..just as you said..
By the way CMISS has been pretty good this year..better than years past..
So my hats off to you as this is a fine blog update..
Keep up the good work wxchaser97 !! :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. wxchaser97
10:11 PM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting Dragod66:
alpha would be top!

Yes it would!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. Dragod66
9:12 PM GMT on November 10, 2012
alpha would be top!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2. wxchaser97
6:42 PM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Thanks 97! I agree we could see development in the next several days in the Atlantic. It'd be great if we could break into the Greek alphabet, though I doubt we get that far.

You're welcome MA! I think we should see 1 more storm, maybe 2, before the season is finally over. While it would be really cool, I also doubt we will see the Greek alphabet this year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1. MAweatherboy1
6:39 PM GMT on November 10, 2012
Thanks 97! I agree we could see development in the next several days in the Atlantic. It'd be great if we could break into the Greek alphabet, though I doubt we get that far.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist

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