I'm a CMU Honors student and love meteorology and extreme weather. I've been fascinated by weather since I was 5, and plan on becoming a meteorologist
By: wxchaser97 , 12:30 PM GMT on November 01, 2012
The Eastern Pacific is active once again with the formation of tropical storm Rosa. Rosa formed a few days ago and she has reached a peak intensity of 60mph. Conditions are becoming less favorable for strengthening now. Currently Rosa has 60mph winds, a 1000mb pressure, and she is moving W at 2mph.
Rosa was once more organized than she is now. She used to have a well established CDO over her center. She also had a vigorous circulation which lead to an intensifying tropical storm. This isn't the case anymore has the center is on the far western side of the convection and the circulation isn't as strong as earlier. Wind shear of up to 20kts is impacting Rosa and it is confirmed by UW-CIMSS analysis. There is some areas that lighter shear is impacting the storm, thus allowing some convection to stay over Rosa. Also the waters are pretty warm so we won't see Rosa disappear too quickly. While this is happening right now, a trough is coming closer and closer to Rosa. This trough will continues to increase wind shear as Rosa slowly moves around in the Pacific. Wind shear should weaken Rosa into a depression in a few days and post-tropical in 4. Rosa is one of only a couple EPAC storms not to reach hurricane status. The track for Rosa is not very easy to forecast due to the pattern and not a lot of model consensus. This is a timing situation with where and what type of trough forms. Where it is a negative tilt or positive tilt will determine whether Rosa goes west or east. Models are split on when/where this would happen. Right now I am going to the west and mostly along the lines of the NHC. No matter what Rosa is not a threat to land and will be gone in several days.
Have a great day everyone and I will have an update on Rosa in a day or two.
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